WEBVTT - Advance Placement: October Stock Market Predictions: What to Expect!

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

0:00:03.680 --> 0:00:07.480
<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:11.840
<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:15.840
<v Speaker 1>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.680
<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:23.320
<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States

0:00:23.320 --> 0:00:28.120
<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:31.680
<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:34.960
<v Speaker 1>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:38.920
<v Speaker 1>are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly

0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:43.000
<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will

0:00:43.040 --> 0:00:46.680
<v Speaker 1>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:50.120
<v Speaker 1>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:55.240
<v Speaker 1>Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,

0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:57.840
<v Speaker 1>border and families will be protected.

0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:00.000
<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.

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<v Speaker 3>The month of September was one of the roughest in

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<v Speaker 3>recent years. Do you believe the fourth quarter will be

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<v Speaker 3>better for the market.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 5>Historically, whenever we've had bad Decembers, we normally have positive

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<v Speaker 5>returns for the fourth quarter. Also, to September is really

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<v Speaker 5>important because of the fiscal year climate. So I think

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<v Speaker 5>we'll start to see a lot more buying in October.

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<v Speaker 5>I think we'll be fine, especially like amongst the Magnificent seven,

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<v Speaker 5>we'll be fine. A lot of stocks came down to

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<v Speaker 5>lows where relatively I would like them, Like if Apple

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<v Speaker 5>got to one sixty two, I would want to buy

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<v Speaker 5>in there. It's currently a one seventy three, and it

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<v Speaker 5>hit a high in July of one ninety eight. So

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<v Speaker 5>every time we have a September we average between two

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<v Speaker 5>to seven percent for the fourth quarter. So unless this

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<v Speaker 5>ua W strike remains, I'm still interested to see when

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<v Speaker 5>people have to start paying back loans on a student

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<v Speaker 5>loan side, how much of an impact that will have.

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<v Speaker 5>The government shut down will have that big of an impact.

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<v Speaker 5>But the biggest thing is if the Fed will keep rates.

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<v Speaker 5>If they announced they won't raise rates for the rest

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<v Speaker 5>of the year, definitively, I think that that will ease

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<v Speaker 5>a little bit of the pressure, and then the stock

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<v Speaker 5>market will be hey, okay going into the fourth quarter.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 6>Historically, when people ask why, I always look at what

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<v Speaker 6>is history tellers, and historically the fourth quarter has been

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<v Speaker 6>the money quarter, the trading right, So if we look

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<v Speaker 6>at over the past forty to fifty years, the NASTACK

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<v Speaker 6>on average that the best month to trading has been well,

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<v Speaker 6>January is the best month with the average growth of

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<v Speaker 6>two and a half percent. November is the second with

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<v Speaker 6>one point eight percent growth, and December is third with

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<v Speaker 6>one point seven that's the NASSAT. So I mean, you

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<v Speaker 6>would think, all right, that makes sense, But let's look

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<v Speaker 6>at other indexes. So the sm P, I'm going off

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<v Speaker 6>my almanac when I'm talking about history. For the s

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<v Speaker 6>and P, the number one month to invest in is

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<v Speaker 6>November with an average return of one point seven So

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<v Speaker 6>that's a broader look inside the market over five hundred companies.

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<v Speaker 4>Second is April and third is December.

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<v Speaker 6>So you got two months inside of the fourth quarter

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<v Speaker 6>for both the SMP and the NASTAK, and then the

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<v Speaker 6>dal Jones the best month to trade in April. Second

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<v Speaker 6>is November with the average return of one point seven percent.

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<v Speaker 6>December is third with one point six And so across

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<v Speaker 6>the Dow, the SMP and the NASTAC, two of the

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<v Speaker 6>three months inside of the quarter are the best on

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<v Speaker 6>record to trade in.

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<v Speaker 4>So la fourth quarter be better?

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, because we're right now and October kind of ends

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<v Speaker 6>it that that historical worst six months months to trade

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<v Speaker 6>in September being the worst. October been kind of shaky

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<v Speaker 6>over the past ten or fifteen years. But we're headed

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<v Speaker 6>toward the best time of the year if you're trading, and.

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<v Speaker 4>The Christmas rally has been coming a lot earlier this year.

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<v Speaker 5>Normally toward going into Christmas, stock market usually has a rally.

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<v Speaker 5>Hedge funds are taking on clients, so the existing clients

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<v Speaker 5>that you have, you can't really recruit a bunch of

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<v Speaker 5>new clients if you're dell a bunch of money. So

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<v Speaker 5>and I say, I think last year when we did

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<v Speaker 5>Hulu at Madison Square, the first and fourth quarter are

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<v Speaker 5>the best months to trade.

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<v Speaker 4>It would be best to sit out the third anyway.

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<v Speaker 5>And by this time, if you're going to according to

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<v Speaker 5>your trading plan, you shall only have a few more

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<v Speaker 5>trades up until November.

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<v Speaker 4>Anyway, and you should be able to close out the

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<v Speaker 4>year very strong. So the Bookie.

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<v Speaker 6>This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank.

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:17.360
<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:21.719
<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with

0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:25.680
<v Speaker 1>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:29.560
<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:33.120
<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States

0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:37.960
<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

0:06:38.000 --> 0:06:41.560
<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:44.839
<v Speaker 1>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:48.760
<v Speaker 1>are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly

0:06:48.839 --> 0:06:52.880
<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will

0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:56.560
<v Speaker 1>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:59.920
<v Speaker 1>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:05.080
<v Speaker 1>Do what's right, leave now. Under President Trump America's laws,

0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:07.680
<v Speaker 1>border and families will be protected.

0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:09.920
<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States de Markement of Homeland Security

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<v Speaker 2>and so like.

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<v Speaker 5>Trading, the first hour and the last hour is ideal

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<v Speaker 5>for trading, but on a quarterly cycle trading the first

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<v Speaker 5>quarter and fourth quarter are ideal, and this is a

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<v Speaker 5>great time to pick up shares to roll into the

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<v Speaker 5>next year as well.

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<v Speaker 4>It's also simple. It's also simple, all seasonal, all history. Yep.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, So the VIX rolls fifty in the last ten days.

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<v Speaker 3>What key levels do we need to know and what

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<v Speaker 3>do we need to keep our eyes on and better

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<v Speaker 3>have gains in the marketing? What is the VIX again

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<v Speaker 3>for people that aren't familiar with the vics.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, the volatility index is a measure of what the

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<v Speaker 5>volatility is doing in the market or how choppy the

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<v Speaker 5>market can be. So if the VIX gets down to

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<v Speaker 5>twelve dollars and forty six cent, chaos is on the way,

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<v Speaker 5>so the VIX does the opposite up our market. So

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<v Speaker 5>the lower the VIX gets, its usually a sign that

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<v Speaker 5>the marketers that are high and about the crash. And

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<v Speaker 5>if we get to nineteen eighty eight, that means that

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<v Speaker 5>stocks are going to boom. So if a VIX has

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<v Speaker 5>a high, there's usually a low end for the stock market,

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<v Speaker 5>and the stock market is going to go up. And

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<v Speaker 5>vixes at a low it means stocks are going to

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<v Speaker 5>come down. So, for example, if you go back to COVID,

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<v Speaker 5>the vix got to eighty five bucks, every stock on

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<v Speaker 5>earth was at as low I know, right, And now

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<v Speaker 5>from twenty twenty through earlier this month we got to

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<v Speaker 5>a lower fourteen or excuse me, twelve and a half.

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<v Speaker 4>Have some change.

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<v Speaker 5>So if you go back to nineteen eighty seven, vixers

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<v Speaker 5>at one hundred and seventy two dollars and seventy nine cent,

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<v Speaker 5>it was all hell on earth. Ever since then, the

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<v Speaker 5>market has never hit that same volatility score again. So

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<v Speaker 5>when the VIX is high, it is then time to buy.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm channeling my inner nineteen keys, the keys. You've been

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<v Speaker 5>in the studio a lot lately to hear what you're

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<v Speaker 5>working on. So if the vixers that are high and

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<v Speaker 5>the stock market is time to buy.

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<v Speaker 6>Right, because that means that the prices are lower than

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<v Speaker 6>they usually are.

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<v Speaker 2>So is there a number?

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<v Speaker 6>Is there a number inside the vix and I remember

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<v Speaker 6>during during COVID, we were watching that number and we

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<v Speaker 6>were like, if it gets to that thirty five to

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<v Speaker 6>forty range, we could traind high. Is there a number

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<v Speaker 6>that you look at to say, all right, did there's

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<v Speaker 6>some some cause for alarm?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, thirty four dollars and eighty cent.

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<v Speaker 5>So if it gets there and we're so far off

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<v Speaker 5>from that now, and even though every week there isn't

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<v Speaker 5>like uaw, Hollywood ended the strike, but now musicians are

0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:42.600
<v Speaker 5>quietly talking about do they need to strike?

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<v Speaker 4>What you guys do?

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<v Speaker 5>I mean because if a fan is having to stream

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<v Speaker 5>your album twenty times a day for you to make

0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:50.679
<v Speaker 5>twenty five dollars off a fan, that's insane. But the

0:09:50.720 --> 0:09:53.720
<v Speaker 5>market has remain relatively calm. This is one of the

0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:57.800
<v Speaker 5>calmest environments. Like September was bloody, but overall the crypto

0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:01.080
<v Speaker 5>market has been positive. Stock market it has been prop positive.

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<v Speaker 5>We haven't seen that much volatility. But yeah, if he

0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:06.240
<v Speaker 5>gets to the thirty four to thirty four eighty spot.

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<v Speaker 5>That's when I'll have a little bit of concern in trepidation.

0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:11.840
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I mean that would be a great correlation if

0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:13.959
<v Speaker 6>people would look at pull up the VICS and you

0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:15.840
<v Speaker 6>can type it in as you ticket VIX and just

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<v Speaker 6>look at what it did for the last month. Even

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<v Speaker 6>with all the volatility or the pullback in the market,

0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:25.320
<v Speaker 6>VICS never got above twenty facts, right, So that should

0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:27.000
<v Speaker 6>tell you this some stability happen here.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:35.520
<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:39.880
<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:43.880
<v Speaker 1>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:47.720
<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:51.280
<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christine Noman, the United States

0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:56.160
<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:59.720
<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:02.880
<v Speaker 1>one one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If

0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:06.560
<v Speaker 1>you are here illegally, your next you will be fine

0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:10.720
<v Speaker 1>Nearly one thousand dollars a day. Imprisoned and deported, you

0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:14.360
<v Speaker 1>will never return. But if you register using our CBP

0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:17.240
<v Speaker 1>home app and leave now, you could be allowed to

0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:22.120
<v Speaker 1>return legally. Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump

0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:25.880
<v Speaker 1>America's laws, border and families will be protected.

0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:28.120
<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,