1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,600
Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

2
00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:07,480
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

3
00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,840
Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

4
00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:15,840
Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

5
00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,680
Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

6
00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:23,320
Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States

7
00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:28,120
Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

8
00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,680
Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

9
00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,960
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

10
00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:38,920
Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly

11
00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:43,000
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will

12
00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,680
Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home

13
00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:50,120
Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

14
00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:55,240
Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,

15
00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,840
Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.

16
00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,000
Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.

17
00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,960
Speaker 3: The month of September was one of the roughest in

18
00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,960
Speaker 3: recent years. Do you believe the fourth quarter will be

19
00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:06,800
Speaker 3: better for the market.

20
00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:08,440
Speaker 4: Yeah.

21
00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:12,240
Speaker 5: Historically, whenever we've had bad Decembers, we normally have positive

22
00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,840
Speaker 5: returns for the fourth quarter. Also, to September is really

23
00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:18,920
Speaker 5: important because of the fiscal year climate. So I think

24
00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:20,800
Speaker 5: we'll start to see a lot more buying in October.

25
00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,679
Speaker 5: I think we'll be fine, especially like amongst the Magnificent seven,

26
00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,399
Speaker 5: we'll be fine. A lot of stocks came down to

27
00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,400
Speaker 5: lows where relatively I would like them, Like if Apple

28
00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:32,400
Speaker 5: got to one sixty two, I would want to buy

29
00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,120
Speaker 5: in there. It's currently a one seventy three, and it

30
00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,480
Speaker 5: hit a high in July of one ninety eight. So

31
00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,720
Speaker 5: every time we have a September we average between two

32
00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,280
Speaker 5: to seven percent for the fourth quarter. So unless this

33
00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:49,960
Speaker 5: ua W strike remains, I'm still interested to see when

34
00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,600
Speaker 5: people have to start paying back loans on a student

35
00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:54,680
Speaker 5: loan side, how much of an impact that will have.

36
00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:57,600
Speaker 5: The government shut down will have that big of an impact.

37
00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,120
Speaker 5: But the biggest thing is if the Fed will keep rates.

38
00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:03,840
Speaker 5: If they announced they won't raise rates for the rest

39
00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:06,920
Speaker 5: of the year, definitively, I think that that will ease

40
00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:08,720
Speaker 5: a little bit of the pressure, and then the stock

41
00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,880
Speaker 5: market will be hey, okay going into the fourth quarter.

42
00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:12,840
Speaker 2: Yeah.

43
00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:17,000
Speaker 6: Historically, when people ask why, I always look at what

44
00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 6: is history tellers, and historically the fourth quarter has been

45
00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:22,919
Speaker 6: the money quarter, the trading right, So if we look

46
00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:27,840
Speaker 6: at over the past forty to fifty years, the NASTACK

47
00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:32,119
Speaker 6: on average that the best month to trading has been well,

48
00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,440
Speaker 6: January is the best month with the average growth of

49
00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:38,080
Speaker 6: two and a half percent. November is the second with

50
00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,239
Speaker 6: one point eight percent growth, and December is third with

51
00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,720
Speaker 6: one point seven that's the NASSAT. So I mean, you

52
00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:46,919
Speaker 6: would think, all right, that makes sense, But let's look

53
00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,440
Speaker 6: at other indexes. So the sm P, I'm going off

54
00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:53,120
Speaker 6: my almanac when I'm talking about history. For the s

55
00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,000
Speaker 6: and P, the number one month to invest in is

56
00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,720
Speaker 6: November with an average return of one point seven So

57
00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:01,800
Speaker 6: that's a broader look inside the market over five hundred companies.

58
00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,320
Speaker 4: Second is April and third is December.

59
00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,120
Speaker 6: So you got two months inside of the fourth quarter

60
00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:08,880
Speaker 6: for both the SMP and the NASTAK, and then the

61
00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,880
Speaker 6: dal Jones the best month to trade in April. Second

62
00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,600
Speaker 6: is November with the average return of one point seven percent.

63
00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,680
Speaker 6: December is third with one point six And so across

64
00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:22,000
Speaker 6: the Dow, the SMP and the NASTAC, two of the

65
00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,400
Speaker 6: three months inside of the quarter are the best on

66
00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:25,760
Speaker 6: record to trade in.

67
00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,120
Speaker 4: So la fourth quarter be better?

68
00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,160
Speaker 6: Yeah, because we're right now and October kind of ends

69
00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:36,000
Speaker 6: it that that historical worst six months months to trade

70
00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:39,400
Speaker 6: in September being the worst. October been kind of shaky

71
00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 6: over the past ten or fifteen years. But we're headed

72
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,920
Speaker 6: toward the best time of the year if you're trading, and.

73
00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:47,640
Speaker 4: The Christmas rally has been coming a lot earlier this year.

74
00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:51,480
Speaker 5: Normally toward going into Christmas, stock market usually has a rally.

75
00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:54,440
Speaker 5: Hedge funds are taking on clients, so the existing clients

76
00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,600
Speaker 5: that you have, you can't really recruit a bunch of

77
00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:58,760
Speaker 5: new clients if you're dell a bunch of money. So

78
00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:01,440
Speaker 5: and I say, I think last year when we did

79
00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,760
Speaker 5: Hulu at Madison Square, the first and fourth quarter are

80
00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:06,160
Speaker 5: the best months to trade.

81
00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:08,480
Speaker 4: It would be best to sit out the third anyway.

82
00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,240
Speaker 5: And by this time, if you're going to according to

83
00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,160
Speaker 5: your trading plan, you shall only have a few more

84
00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:14,920
Speaker 5: trades up until November.

85
00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:16,840
Speaker 4: Anyway, and you should be able to close out the

86
00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:18,320
Speaker 4: year very strong. So the Bookie.

87
00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:21,840
Speaker 6: This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank.

88
00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:25,000
Speaker 6: A lot of people think podcasts about work are boring

89
00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:29,080
Speaker 6: and sure, they definitely can be, but understanding of professionals

90
00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,400
Speaker 6: routine shows us how they achieve their success, little by little,

91
00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,440
Speaker 6: day after day. It's like banking with P and C Bank.

92
00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,680
Speaker 6: It might seem boring to safe plan and make calculated

93
00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,800
Speaker 6: decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is

94
00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:46,159
Speaker 6: what helps you live or more happily fulfilled life. P

95
00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:51,120
Speaker 6: and C Bank Brilliantly Boring since eighteen sixty five. Brilliantly

96
00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,800
Speaker 6: Boring since eighteen sixty five is a service mark of

97
00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:57,080
Speaker 6: the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc. P and C Bank

98
00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,159
Speaker 6: National Association Member FDIC.

99
00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:03,040
Speaker 4: Earners.

100
00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:03,480
Speaker 2: What's up?

101
00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,040
Speaker 6: You ever walk into a small business and everything just

102
00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,360
Speaker 6: works like? The checkout is fast, the receipts are digital,

103
00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:12,880
Speaker 6: tipping is a breeze, and you're out the door before

104
00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:17,039
Speaker 6: the line even builds Odds are they're using Square? We

105
00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,760
Speaker 6: love supporting businesses that run on Square because it just

106
00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:23,000
Speaker 6: feels seamless. Whether it's a local coffee shop, a vendor

107
00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,320
Speaker 6: at a pop up market, or even one of our

108
00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:29,040
Speaker 6: merch partners. Square makes it easy for them to take payments,

109
00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,960
Speaker 6: manage inventory, and run their business with confidence, all from

110
00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,479
Speaker 6: one simple system. If you're a business owner or even

111
00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,080
Speaker 6: just thinking about launching something soon. Square is hands down

112
00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,159
Speaker 6: one of the best tools out there to help you start, run,

113
00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,719
Speaker 6: and grow. It's not just about payments, it's about giving

114
00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:48,800
Speaker 6: you time back so you can focus on.

115
00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:50,240
Speaker 4: What matters most ready.

116
00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,640
Speaker 6: To see how Square can transform your business, visit Square

117
00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:58,240
Speaker 6: dot com backslash go backslash eyl to learn more that

118
00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:02,840
Speaker 6: Square dot Com backs last go backslash eyl. Don't wait,

119
00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,960
Speaker 6: don't hesitate. Let's Square handle the back end so you

120
00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:07,640
Speaker 6: can keep pushing your vision forward.

121
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:13,520
Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

122
00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:17,360
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

123
00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:21,719
Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with

124
00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,680
Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

125
00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:29,560
Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

126
00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,120
Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States

127
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:37,960
Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

128
00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,560
Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

129
00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,839
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

130
00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:48,760
Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly

131
00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,880
Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will

132
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,560
Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home

133
00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,920
Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

134
00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:05,080
Speaker 1: Do what's right, leave now. Under President Trump America's laws,

135
00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:07,680
Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.

136
00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:09,920
Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States de Markement of Homeland Security

137
00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:10,480
Speaker 2: and so like.

138
00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:13,960
Speaker 5: Trading, the first hour and the last hour is ideal

139
00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,320
Speaker 5: for trading, but on a quarterly cycle trading the first

140
00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,800
Speaker 5: quarter and fourth quarter are ideal, and this is a

141
00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,160
Speaker 5: great time to pick up shares to roll into the

142
00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:22,080
Speaker 5: next year as well.

143
00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:30,400
Speaker 4: It's also simple. It's also simple, all seasonal, all history. Yep.

144
00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:36,400
Speaker 3: Okay, So the VIX rolls fifty in the last ten days.

145
00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:40,400
Speaker 3: What key levels do we need to know and what

146
00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:41,960
Speaker 3: do we need to keep our eyes on and better

147
00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:44,400
Speaker 3: have gains in the marketing? What is the VIX again

148
00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:46,040
Speaker 3: for people that aren't familiar with the vics.

149
00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, the volatility index is a measure of what the

150
00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:52,160
Speaker 5: volatility is doing in the market or how choppy the

151
00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,680
Speaker 5: market can be. So if the VIX gets down to

152
00:07:55,080 --> 00:08:00,280
Speaker 5: twelve dollars and forty six cent, chaos is on the way,

153
00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:02,440
Speaker 5: so the VIX does the opposite up our market. So

154
00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:06,200
Speaker 5: the lower the VIX gets, its usually a sign that

155
00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:09,080
Speaker 5: the marketers that are high and about the crash. And

156
00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:13,280
Speaker 5: if we get to nineteen eighty eight, that means that

157
00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:15,680
Speaker 5: stocks are going to boom. So if a VIX has

158
00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,880
Speaker 5: a high, there's usually a low end for the stock market,

159
00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:20,680
Speaker 5: and the stock market is going to go up. And

160
00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 5: vixes at a low it means stocks are going to

161
00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:25,840
Speaker 5: come down. So, for example, if you go back to COVID,

162
00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,160
Speaker 5: the vix got to eighty five bucks, every stock on

163
00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:32,120
Speaker 5: earth was at as low I know, right, And now

164
00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,959
Speaker 5: from twenty twenty through earlier this month we got to

165
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,319
Speaker 5: a lower fourteen or excuse me, twelve and a half.

166
00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:38,920
Speaker 4: Have some change.

167
00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,600
Speaker 5: So if you go back to nineteen eighty seven, vixers

168
00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:43,959
Speaker 5: at one hundred and seventy two dollars and seventy nine cent,

169
00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:47,280
Speaker 5: it was all hell on earth. Ever since then, the

170
00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,760
Speaker 5: market has never hit that same volatility score again. So

171
00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:53,440
Speaker 5: when the VIX is high, it is then time to buy.

172
00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:57,920
Speaker 5: I'm channeling my inner nineteen keys, the keys. You've been

173
00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:00,800
Speaker 5: in the studio a lot lately to hear what you're

174
00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,080
Speaker 5: working on. So if the vixers that are high and

175
00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:04,679
Speaker 5: the stock market is time to buy.

176
00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:08,640
Speaker 6: Right, because that means that the prices are lower than

177
00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:09,600
Speaker 6: they usually are.

178
00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:10,720
Speaker 2: So is there a number?

179
00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:13,360
Speaker 6: Is there a number inside the vix and I remember

180
00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:15,920
Speaker 6: during during COVID, we were watching that number and we

181
00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,199
Speaker 6: were like, if it gets to that thirty five to

182
00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,160
Speaker 6: forty range, we could traind high. Is there a number

183
00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:23,960
Speaker 6: that you look at to say, all right, did there's

184
00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,320
Speaker 6: some some cause for alarm?

185
00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:28,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, thirty four dollars and eighty cent.

186
00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,160
Speaker 5: So if it gets there and we're so far off

187
00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,000
Speaker 5: from that now, and even though every week there isn't

188
00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:40,440
Speaker 5: like uaw, Hollywood ended the strike, but now musicians are

189
00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:42,600
Speaker 5: quietly talking about do they need to strike?

190
00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:43,360
Speaker 4: What you guys do?

191
00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:45,439
Speaker 5: I mean because if a fan is having to stream

192
00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:47,240
Speaker 5: your album twenty times a day for you to make

193
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:50,679
Speaker 5: twenty five dollars off a fan, that's insane. But the

194
00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,720
Speaker 5: market has remain relatively calm. This is one of the

195
00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:57,800
Speaker 5: calmest environments. Like September was bloody, but overall the crypto

196
00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:01,080
Speaker 5: market has been positive. Stock market it has been prop positive.

197
00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,079
Speaker 5: We haven't seen that much volatility. But yeah, if he

198
00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:06,240
Speaker 5: gets to the thirty four to thirty four eighty spot.

199
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:08,880
Speaker 5: That's when I'll have a little bit of concern in trepidation.

200
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean that would be a great correlation if

201
00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:13,959
Speaker 6: people would look at pull up the VICS and you

202
00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:15,840
Speaker 6: can type it in as you ticket VIX and just

203
00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:17,720
Speaker 6: look at what it did for the last month. Even

204
00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,880
Speaker 6: with all the volatility or the pullback in the market,

205
00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:25,320
Speaker 6: VICS never got above twenty facts, right, So that should

206
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,000
Speaker 6: tell you this some stability happen here.

207
00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:27,800
Speaker 4: Yeah.

208
00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:31,640
Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

209
00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:35,520
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

210
00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:39,880
Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

211
00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:43,880
Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

212
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,720
Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

213
00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:51,280
Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christine Noman, the United States

214
00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:56,160
Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

215
00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:59,720
Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

216
00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,880
Speaker 1: one one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If

217
00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:06,560
Speaker 1: you are here illegally, your next you will be fine

218
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:10,720
Speaker 1: Nearly one thousand dollars a day. Imprisoned and deported, you

219
00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:14,360
Speaker 1: will never return. But if you register using our CBP

220
00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,240
Speaker 1: home app and leave now, you could be allowed to

221
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:22,120
Speaker 1: return legally. Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump

222
00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:25,880
Speaker 1: America's laws, border and families will be protected.

223
00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,120
Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,