1 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Hello, Stephanomics. Here the podcast that brings you the global economy. 2 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:12,400 Speaker 1: This week, we have a Tale of Three Cities, which 3 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 1: is also a tale about winning and losing in a 4 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 1: world economy in flux, and why sometimes it can be 5 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:23,920 Speaker 1: difficult to tell the difference. Take San Francisco. It looks 6 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 1: for all the world like a loser from post COVID 7 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: work habits, A big chunk of its workforce hasn't returned 8 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 1: to the city center and financially and socially its entire straits. 9 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 1: But the San Francisco area is also at the center 10 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: of the global AI boom from for large parts of 11 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: the US tech fraternity, really the only part of the 12 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:49,840 Speaker 1: world you'd want to live. So it's complicated. California Bureau 13 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: chief Karen Breslo and Bloomberg opinion columnists Justin Fox are 14 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: going to help me make sense of it all in 15 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: a few minutes. We also have a great piece from 16 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 1: Seen Asia economy reporter and Michelle jam Risco in Singapore, 17 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: a city that has benefited enormously from the economic and 18 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: political shifts of the past few years, but where long 19 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: term residents now struggle to afford a drink. But we're 20 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 1: going to start with a cautionary tale from Dubai, which 21 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: on paper at least looks like one of the big 22 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 1: winners from the invasion of Ukraine last year and all 23 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:31,399 Speaker 1: the geopolitical events that have unfolded since then. But if 24 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 1: you're living in Dubai, there's definitely been some downsides to 25 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 1: this influx of people and wealth that's followed that invasion. 26 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: I'm going to have a quick chat with Manus Cranny, 27 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: distinguished longtime anchor for Bloomberg who's been based in Dubai 28 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 1: for a while. Manus, thanks for joining us. I guess 29 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: I should start by just asking you to paint a 30 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 1: bit of a picture. I have been there a couple 31 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: of times in the last year, and I can certainly 32 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: see people complaining about there being no Rolex shot watches 33 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: left in the stores because of the Russians arriving. But 34 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: you know what's it been like to be there. 35 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 2: High class Problemsphanie, And there are many. 36 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 3: I mean, I can tell you there was a palpable 37 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 3: change in this city how we live, what we spent 38 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 3: to live, how we get around in the past year, 39 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:24,239 Speaker 3: year and a half. And this acceleration began before the 40 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 3: Russian invasion of Ukraine in terms of rent prices, congestion 41 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 3: tough to get an uber price gouging by uber Why, Stephanie, 42 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 3: Because post COVID you saw this huge influx of not 43 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 3: just you know, Russian emigrats, but wealthy Europeans beginning to 44 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 3: look at the value differential per square foot here in 45 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:51,359 Speaker 3: Dubai relative to the Cortezu, relative to Paris, relative to Berlin, 46 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 3: and relative to London. And it began to offer them 47 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 3: a glimpse of six months of the year where you 48 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 3: could live in beautiful weather from October through to the 49 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 3: end of March, and you could get yourself a million 50 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 3: dollar pad, which you just couldn't buy in any of 51 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,959 Speaker 3: those cities on the beach overlooking the Marina. And suddenly 52 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,640 Speaker 3: people began to look at this city in a very 53 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 3: different way. And then the Russians came, and my gosh, 54 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 3: it just exploded. 55 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: And of course the main thing people talk about is rent. 56 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 1: And you should tell us you had your own experience 57 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: with a rent increase which you helped to go viral. 58 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, I got a rent review through They asked me 59 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 3: for fifty two percent increase year on year, to which 60 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 3: I went what you know, fifty two percent. So I 61 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 3: got on LinkedIn Welcome. 62 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 2: To my home. 63 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 4: So to understand inflation is to understand the rent increase 64 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 4: that I've just been sent. My landlord wants to raise 65 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 4: my rent by fifty six percent. 66 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, fifty six. 67 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 3: And I talked about this is what happens when cities 68 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 3: get greedy and landlords get greed. 69 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 4: You want to understand the definition of greed, then that 70 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 4: is the very personification of it. 71 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 2: And all I can say is. 72 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 4: You know, the implosion of an economy and a city. 73 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 2: Is driven by the lunacy that is greed. I'm really 74 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 2: rather vexed. 75 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 3: One could say, now through I wouldn't say any great 76 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 3: negotiation skills, but I would say through you know, blunt 77 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 3: hammer approach. I ended up offering thirty two percent of 78 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 3: a rent increase, and they accepted that they wanted to 79 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 3: keep me as a long term tenant. We tooed and 80 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 3: throwed over a couple of prices, but I chose to 81 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 3: pay the extra because this stock and inventory of equivalent 82 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 3: properties available in the area where I want to live 83 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,679 Speaker 3: was very, very limited. And I should add I, Stephanie, 84 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 3: you know where the office is here. We're in the 85 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:55,799 Speaker 3: heart of the DIFC, the heart of Dubai Financial District, 86 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 3: and I live very close. I'm very privileged to live 87 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 3: four minutes away in an uber and a fifteen minute walk. 88 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 2: Yes, I walk home from work. 89 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: It's when it's not but it's good five degrees heat. 90 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: But yeah, you have to keep that, keep that quiet 91 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: because everyone else living in big cities will hate you 92 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 1: for that four minute commute. But I have heard some 93 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 1: horror stories about rent. I mean, is this was this 94 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:27,159 Speaker 1: typical of the experience of other people, friends of yours, 95 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: colleagues in Dubai. 96 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 3: I got away lightly, if you can call a thirty 97 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 3: two percent hike getting away lightly. Lots of friends have 98 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 3: been through different scenarios. One, you're giving a notice to 99 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 3: quit because the landlord says we're going to come back 100 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 3: in and live in the property. 101 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 2: They don't. They simply get you to vacate. 102 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 3: They are then able to raise the rent by an 103 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 3: even bigger proportion. The second thing that they do is 104 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:57,480 Speaker 3: think of Dubai as a concentric circle, Stephanie. Inside the middle, 105 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:00,159 Speaker 3: there's the DIFC where there is no rent regulation and 106 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 3: what soever. And then you go outside of that and 107 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 3: you have a whole other area of Dubai, which is 108 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 3: ruled by a regulatory boldery called rerop so me the 109 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 3: tenant can go to the regulatory body challenge the rent 110 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 3: rise and to a certain extent it will be enforced 111 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 3: because do Bai still want people to come from London, 112 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,480 Speaker 3: from Madrid, from all around Europe and the United States 113 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 3: of America, so they're conscious of this housing costs. And 114 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 3: I got quite a few calls and responses to the 115 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 3: video that I put on LinkedIn in terms of, you know, 116 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:35,040 Speaker 3: just an. 117 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 2: Overall response from a variety of levels of organizations in 118 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 2: the city. 119 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: We're going to talk more broadly in this show about 120 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 1: the way that cities have handled economic success and the 121 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: problems it can sow for the future if you don't 122 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 1: handle it well. I mean, housing comes very high on 123 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: the list if you start to make it difficult for 124 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: people to not right at the upper end of the 125 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 1: income scale, to live comfortable in that city. When we 126 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: think of Dubai, we think of construction and you know, building, 127 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: apartment buildings and other things going up very quickly. Is 128 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 1: it something that they're responding to effectively? Do you think this? 129 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: Are they handling this success well? 130 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 3: I think they are even shot by the level of 131 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 3: success that they have had. And in terms of the risk, 132 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 3: the risk is this is that you price on the 133 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 3: very sort of typical expatriate family that might come to 134 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 3: live here, or you know, the kind of construct to 135 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 3: parents and a couple of kids. 136 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 2: I'm just looking at some stats. 137 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 3: The average rent for a villa, a family home jump 138 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 3: by twenty six percent last year. That's eighty thousand dollars. Okay, 139 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 3: that's called in Cbori. The average apartment rent went up 140 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 3: by twenty eight percent. They are conscious they need to 141 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 3: deliver more supply, and that supply is coming like they 142 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 3: have a bit of a desert that they can build into. 143 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 3: So they are extending the growth of Dubai in a 144 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 3: variety of directions, both along the coastline. And there's some 145 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 3: big prime projects coming on board there that were perhaps 146 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 3: you know, dumped in the post financial crisis, and they 147 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 3: are building lots of smaller family units, smaller apartments which 148 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 3: are affordable. It just means you need to move further out. 149 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 3: You won't get a four minute commute. You move further right, 150 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 3: you can get a consider you can get a less rent. 151 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 2: I don't know. 152 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 3: About considerably less rent, but you can get a much 153 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 3: more competitive rent in a lot of various Let's say 154 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:30,119 Speaker 3: family constructs apartment constructs around the periphery of the city, 155 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 3: and that is the growth of a city, isn't it. 156 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 3: The question is the infrastructure is that there to support that? 157 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 3: And that's perhaps the bit that's lagging. 158 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: And I'm sure your colleagues of Bloomberg will be delighted 159 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: for you having given chapter and verse to senior management 160 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg on why they need a bigger pay rise 161 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 1: at the end of this year. I'm going to let 162 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: you go in a minute manage, but I know you're 163 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 1: about to relocate to New York. Do you think it's 164 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 1: going to be any better there? 165 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:53,640 Speaker 2: Seventy? I guess it is. 166 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 3: I've done a lot of steps in New York last week, 167 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 3: fourteen to fifteen thousand steps a day, So, first of all, 168 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 3: to give you some perspective, and very fortunate, I live 169 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 3: in about fifteen hundred and sixteen hundred square feet. 170 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 1: Somebody said to me, which part of this is not 171 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 1: going to happened? 172 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 2: Yeah? Which part of this trade? Have I given great 173 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 2: thought to? Forty percent tax? 174 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:11,319 Speaker 3: To pay fifty percent more rent to live in fifty 175 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 3: percent smaller apartment. It's not quite as drastic as that, 176 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:16,679 Speaker 3: but I can tell you, having walked around a lot 177 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,080 Speaker 3: of property in New York last week, I'm going to 178 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 3: be living in a heck of a smaller apartment, and 179 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 3: I reckon, I'm going to be up another fifteen percent 180 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 3: to live in fifty percent smaller apartment. 181 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 1: Well, you did have it relatively easy for a few years, 182 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: as you've admitted, But thank you very much, Betters. And 183 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: you've you've introduced actually something which we're going to be 184 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 1: talking about now, which is, you know, maybe a city 185 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 1: that's a bit further down this road and actually is 186 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 1: not making it easy for middle class, ordinary families to live. 187 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:55,319 Speaker 5: Because people aren't just rich, they're crazy rich. And you 188 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:57,719 Speaker 5: really should have told me that you're like the principal Inamodesia. 189 00:09:57,840 --> 00:09:58,680 Speaker 6: That's ridiculous. 190 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 2: That's more of a Harry. 191 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 5: When the international blockbuster Crazy Rich Asians was released in 192 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 5: twenty eighteen, Singapore's Prime Minister Lisia and Lune laughed at 193 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 5: the impression the movie brought on the city state. 194 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 6: Crazy Rich Asians have nothing to do with us. We 195 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:21,599 Speaker 6: don't live like that, and I think it'd be disastrous 196 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 6: that Singapore has got the idea that that is the 197 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 6: way we ought to live. 198 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 5: Well, that kind of jinxed it five years in one 199 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 5: global pandemic later, a huge influx of wealth, a lot 200 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 5: of it from China, has made Singapore a playground for 201 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 5: the rich and crazy expensive for everyone else. Singapore's core 202 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,440 Speaker 5: inflation is April held firm at five. 203 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 6: Thought has been ranked the most expensive city to live. 204 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 2: In over and over and over again. 205 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:53,199 Speaker 7: Every day is expensive cars, housing, I think four is 206 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 7: also rising in con. 207 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 3: Berries and I was it there so much as property 208 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 3: costs in Singpole like one million. 209 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 8: Five bedroom house four hundred and eight million dollars. 210 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,079 Speaker 5: You can see the stresses, especially in rents. 211 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 9: Yes, I mean the rental market was still continuing its 212 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 9: crazy upward spiral from the beginning of the year. 213 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 5: Juliette Standard of City prop Property, who's been a Singapore 214 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 5: real estate agent for twenty three years, It's seen a. 215 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 9: Lot of experts coming in from Hong Kong and a 216 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 9: lot of mainland Chinese coming in from Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, 217 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 9: and a lot of locals still were having to rent. 218 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 2: What did ch. 219 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 5: As Chinese President Xijingping PUSH's common prosperity at home. The 220 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 5: most prosperous Chinese are looking to protect their cash. They're 221 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 5: pouring it into assets beyond their borders, and that accelerated 222 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 5: with the end of China's COVID zero policies and resumption 223 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 5: of travel. A lot of that money has ended up 224 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 5: here in Singapore. The number of family investment offices nearly 225 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 5: tripled over the past two years, and just recently the 226 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 5: city climbed ranks into the top five most expensive cities 227 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 5: in the world and the most expensive for luxury living 228 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 5: by some estimates. Unlike other major cities, rents didn't drop 229 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 5: in the COVID era, They've only gotten worse. One measure 230 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 5: shows condo rents surge more than thirty percent in the 231 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 5: first quarter compared to the same period a year earlier. 232 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 5: That's the fastest pace in fifteen years. Expiring leases has 233 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 5: become a source of stress, as it's not uncommon for 234 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 5: landlords to demand double or more upon renewal. Under the pressure, 235 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 5: real estate agents are seeing an outflow, especially of middle 236 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 5: class foreigners who simply can't afford Singapore anymore. 237 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 9: So there's been a lot of remigration out of Singapore 238 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 9: back to other parts of Asia. Specifically, a lot of 239 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 9: Hong Kong expats who came in last year, quite a 240 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 9: few kind of number are going back to Hong Kong 241 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 9: because they're kind of comparing the prices with Hong Kong 242 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,439 Speaker 9: prices and you know, there's actually not much difference now. 243 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 9: And then there's a lot of people who are leaving 244 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:16,320 Speaker 9: Singapore and going to places like Bali or jb or Vietnam, 245 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 9: Thailand because it's so much cheaper. So you know, there's 246 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 9: a lot of people who are rethinking their plans and 247 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 9: having to leave Singapore. 248 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 10: Now. 249 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 5: It's not just the housing market getting squeezed. The food 250 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 5: and beverage industry aka Singapore's pride and joy is also 251 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 5: seeing a hallowing out in the middle market. Michelin Star 252 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,199 Speaker 5: chef Michael Wilson told me that he added a steak 253 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 5: entree to his menu for eighty eight SEEING dollars or 254 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 5: about sixty six US dollars, just to test the range 255 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:48,319 Speaker 5: of prices customers were willing to pay. That's more than 256 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,839 Speaker 5: twice the cost of any other entree he had on offer. 257 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 5: In the first weekend on the menu, they ran out 258 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 5: of steaks. Besides the influx of new cash. The government's 259 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 5: labor policies aren't helping either. In twenty twenty one, Singapore 260 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:07,679 Speaker 5: tightened hiring quotas, limiting foreigners to thirty five percent or 261 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 5: less of staff and services jobs. This year, they raised 262 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 5: the minimum salaries for local employees and food and beverage rolls. 263 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 5: Michael Callahan is the owner of Barbary Coast Bar. He 264 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 5: told me this is all making for a very complicated calculus. 265 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 11: As we're seeing actually where we saw the inability to 266 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 11: afford new staff, now we're seeing the inability to retain 267 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 11: our current staff. 268 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 5: A lot of restaurant owners said, the quotas for hiring locals, 269 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 5: we're making it unwise to hire foreign workers at all, 270 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 5: because when one local staffer quits, the resulting ratio could 271 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 5: make them ineligible to stay open. Callahan warns that too 272 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 5: many in the industry will break under the pressure and 273 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 5: raise menu prices that will force restaurants to cater to 274 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 5: an even wealthier, more niche clientele. 275 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 11: When you get to the point that you're charging twenty 276 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 11: eight twenty nine thirty dollars a cocktail, there isn't a 277 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 11: lot of people that can justify going out two three 278 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 11: nights a week, much less four or five nights a 279 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 11: week when the single serving of a cocktail is twenty 280 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 11: eight dollars plus plus. So now you have a very 281 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 11: very small pie and they're very very much I don't 282 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 11: want to say too similar, but they kind of are. 283 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 11: So what's happening now. 284 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 7: Is that we're catering towarding well, we are personally, but 285 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,000 Speaker 7: a lot of the industry's catering towards this smaller group 286 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 7: that have a particular taste, and that's actually reducing how 287 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 7: creative we're getting. 288 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 11: And that's why said, yeah, I see that, because. 289 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 5: It's Callahan helped me understand the changes to Singapore's dining 290 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 5: out culture. But since this is an economics podcast, I 291 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 5: also turned to sing one song he's watched the shift 292 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 5: play out over the past three decades. He's an economist 293 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 5: at cimb Private Banking who follows trends in the industry 294 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 5: as a gauge of how Singapore's broader economy is doing. 295 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 8: I suppose I come here weekly mainly just because I 296 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 8: pretend I'm up not in Singapore. 297 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 5: At the glass and cased Flower Dome, part of the 298 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 5: popular gardens by the Bay, complex. I sat with Song. 299 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 5: The place was buzzing with tourists on a recent weekday a. 300 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 8: Fifty years ago, when it's really about finding jobs and 301 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:20,960 Speaker 8: housing for the people after the production of that Singapore 302 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 8: and so FMB fairly basic at that point in time. 303 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 2: Just eating and. 304 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 8: Feeding as a necessity to today greater disposable income especially 305 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 8: important then it allows obviously the whole range of options. 306 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 5: The whole range of options is getting leaner in the 307 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 5: middle at the bottom of Singapore's famed hawker centers where 308 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 5: you can get a full hot meal for just a 309 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 5: few dollars, and those are still popular up and down 310 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 5: the income ladder. Since twenty twenty, they've been protected with 311 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 5: UNESCO World Heritage Status, top of special attention they received 312 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 5: from the government such as Digital Transformation assistance in the 313 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 5: past few years. On the high end, like Callahan pointed out, 314 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 5: more wealthy customers are keeping up those top priced outlets, 315 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,920 Speaker 5: but in the middle there's a real crunch. But Song 316 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 5: says Singapore will never be a cheaper place for doing business, 317 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 5: and the high demand also comes from Singapore's neutrality in politics. 318 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 8: Given the increased tension between China and US or Western 319 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:36,919 Speaker 8: government in general, where Singapore becomes even more of attraction 320 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 8: for businesses as many of them Reshaw and Unshaw whatever 321 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,440 Speaker 8: businesses are on the U Singapore. 322 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 2: As their hub. 323 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 5: Altogether, the rising costs are raising some political and socioeconomic 324 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 5: stress that's ahead of general elections that are due by 325 00:17:55,440 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 5: November twenty twenty five. Officials have reassured that resumed construction 326 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,960 Speaker 5: will bring relief to rent soon. They've also instituted stamp 327 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 5: duty increases, including a move in April that doubled the 328 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:12,159 Speaker 5: levee for foreigners buying residential property to sixty percent, and 329 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,920 Speaker 5: on Wednesday, Central Bank Chief Rovimannon played down the impact 330 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 5: that cash flows into Singapore are having on inflation. 331 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: Wealth in flows in Singapore into Singapore have literal effect 332 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 1: on the exchange rate, domestic inflation, property prices or conferences. 333 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 8: The step of inflation since late twenty one was mainly 334 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 8: due to shop increases in global energy and food prices 335 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 8: and beach proof. 336 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 5: The Monetary Authority of Singapore says that the inflation fight 337 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 5: isn't over, but they do see energy and food prices 338 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 5: slowing further and wage growth easing. Real estate agent Juliet 339 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 5: says she's seen rents fall off a cliff in the 340 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 5: past few weeks, so maybe a market cool down is 341 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 5: just around the corner. But the damage has been done 342 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 5: and the stereotype that crazy rich Asians projected on Singapore 343 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 5: seems to be solidified. It'll take a long time for 344 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 5: people to change their minds. Here's Juliette again. 345 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,159 Speaker 9: So the perception of Singapore is that it's no longer 346 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 9: a place where you can come and live relatively inexpensively. 347 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 9: You can't save money here anymore. That's what a lot 348 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 9: of expats see in Singapore. 349 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 5: Michelle Jamrisco for Bloomberg News. 350 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,679 Speaker 1: So not so long ago, it was San Francisco that 351 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 1: was the great boomtown. The city benefited more than any 352 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: other from the rise of Silicon Valley. Books were written 353 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:38,200 Speaker 1: about how other places in the US might learn from 354 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 1: its example. Now, though, it's become a byword for urban 355 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 1: decline and dysfunction, with homelessness, a fentanyl epidemic making downtown 356 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 1: and no go area for a big chunk of the population, 357 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 1: and the commercial real estate market imploding. Big retail businesses 358 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: are heading for the door. In fact, in recent weeks 359 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 1: we've seen Whole Foods Nordstrom and the Westfield shopping mall 360 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: all deciding to quit the city. So how did San 361 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:10,120 Speaker 1: Francisco get to this unhappy state? And are there parallels 362 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 1: or lessons for cities elsewhere in the US. Well, I've 363 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 1: got two excellent people here with me to speak about that, 364 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 1: Karen Breslau, our California Bureau chief who's based in San Francisco, 365 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 1: and Justin Fox, who's been on the program before, a 366 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion columnist who writes about lots of interesting things, 367 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:32,360 Speaker 1: including US cities and the challenges that they're dealing with. Justin, Karen, 368 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: thank you very much for talking to me. Karen, there 369 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: are a lot of horror stories about San Francisco doing 370 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 1: the rounds at the moment. Just give us a sense 371 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: how bad is it day to day. 372 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 10: It really depends where you are and who you talk to. 373 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 10: So if you are in the downtown financial district, which 374 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 10: is where I am right now in our Bloomberg bureau 375 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:55,640 Speaker 10: here in San Francisco. 376 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 2: It is dire. 377 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 10: If you are a downtown landlord, if you are a 378 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 10: downtown retailer, if you are a mayor staring into you know, 379 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 10: empty city coffers, it is you know, from a fiscal standpoint, 380 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:16,159 Speaker 10: obviously terrible to have these giant skyscrapers with a thirty 381 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,359 Speaker 10: percent vacancy rate, you know, for the last several years 382 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 10: due to COVID, and now with the tech downturn and 383 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:28,639 Speaker 10: work from home, you know, becoming the norm. You know, 384 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 10: you are seeing definitely this, you know, the proverbial doom 385 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,119 Speaker 10: loop in this downtown area. If you go outside of 386 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 10: the downtown into neighborhoods, I think you see a more vibrant, 387 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:47,959 Speaker 10: alive San Francisco. And the city is also undergoing an 388 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,399 Speaker 10: AI boom, right, so a lot of a lot of 389 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 10: AI startups are here. But these you know, these are young, 390 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 10: early stage companies. They don't fill skyscrapers, you know, their 391 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 10: their work live lots and people's you know, the modern 392 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 10: day version of the of the Hewlett Packard garage. So 393 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 10: it really is it is blocked by block, but the 394 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 10: city from a fiscal standpoint and also from morale, it 395 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 10: is it is unusually dire. 396 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:22,639 Speaker 1: I mentioned that San Francisco obviously was the center of 397 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:28,400 Speaker 1: the previous tech booms of this century, and I think 398 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 1: that's what people find surprising, because, as you suggested, there's 399 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 1: success still there. There's still all those startups. How does 400 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 1: that coexist with the kind of horror stories that we 401 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,680 Speaker 1: hear about downtown. Why is the city not benefiting from 402 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 1: that continued success of parts of its economy. 403 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 10: When you think about San Francisco, you really have to 404 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 10: hold more than one thought in your head at the 405 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 10: same time. This is a city, you know, that's been 406 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 10: through booms and bus since the gold Rush. It is 407 00:22:56,359 --> 00:23:01,399 Speaker 10: a boom and bust town, and so you know the 408 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,959 Speaker 10: most you know recent obviously we have the tech crash, 409 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 10: you know, on the heels of of the COVID shutdowns, 410 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 10: and before that we had the dot com boom, the 411 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 10: dot com bust. So the city has seen this before. 412 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:24,439 Speaker 10: The difference is I think really that the hybrid or 413 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:28,879 Speaker 10: work from home models have flattened out what would be 414 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 10: a normal recovery, uh and made so much of the 415 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 10: commercial real estate, this incredibly valuable commercial real estate in 416 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 10: downtown San Francisco that powers you know, the tax base 417 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 10: of the city, and the and the and the retail 418 00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 10: base that has all gone. San Francisco is a very 419 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 10: small city. It's surrounded by affluent suburbs where people you know, 420 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 10: come into work. The population of San Francisco is hovers 421 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 10: around eight hundred thousand. It's not a big major city 422 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 10: in terms of population, but the you know, the commuters 423 00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 10: who come in and fill those offices and spend their 424 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 10: money are simply not here in the numbers they were 425 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 10: before the pandemic. 426 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 1: And when people take the sort of long view, there's 427 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,719 Speaker 1: kind of a range of culprits that people point to 428 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,879 Speaker 1: for how the city got to this position, which, as 429 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,159 Speaker 1: you say, it's not all bad, but certainly downtown feels 430 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 1: pretty bad. There's a one whole set of arguments that's 431 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 1: around the tech boom itself, all the money that came in, 432 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,879 Speaker 1: the enormous increase in real estate values that made so 433 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 1: much of San Francisco unaffordable. There's another set of critiques 434 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: that's around sort of dysfunctional politics, and obviously that's what 435 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 1: Republicans are doing attack ads about. You know, this is 436 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 1: an example of leftist politics gone amuck. And then, as 437 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 1: you've mentioned, you know, there's COVID and the fact that 438 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,160 Speaker 1: more people have just stayed at home since the very 439 00:24:56,160 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 1: long period of shutdowns from the pandemic. When you think 440 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 1: about it in your mind, I'm sure it's all of 441 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 1: those things. But is there was there a sort of 442 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,679 Speaker 1: an original problem that in the way that that that 443 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:15,120 Speaker 1: all that influx of enormous amount of money from related 444 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,200 Speaker 1: to Silicon Valley got got handled. 445 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:21,920 Speaker 10: I think you've really laid out the cast of culprits 446 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,680 Speaker 10: very well. I would say the blame the tech Bros. 447 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 10: Storyline was certainly here. What you know, during the boom days, right, 448 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 10: you had people throwing tomatoes at these big white buses 449 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 10: that would carry unlabeled of course, unmarked buses that would 450 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 10: that would ferry workers from San Francisco to Google and 451 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 10: Meta and Apple and Genent Tech and you know, all 452 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:50,720 Speaker 10: the big employers, and they were blamed for, you know, 453 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 10: ruining the vibe in San Francisco. Then, of course dysfunctional politics. 454 00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:01,160 Speaker 10: Why does this heavily democratic city in a heavily democratic 455 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 10: state not have sufficient thousand there are? You know, I 456 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 10: think I think there is legitimate blame for I would 457 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:19,200 Speaker 10: say an air of permissiveness around drug use which has 458 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:23,160 Speaker 10: completely gotten out of hand. I think that is legitimate criticism. 459 00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:28,639 Speaker 10: And then overlying all of this, of course, is the pandemic, 460 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 10: which really exacerbated trends that were clearly in place before 461 00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 10: and accelerated those trends and revealed, you know, a society 462 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 10: that is so deeply unequal it cannot recover from COVID 463 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 10: from the pandemic as other cities have. 464 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 1: But I want to get on to the other cities 465 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: in a minute. But just I guess one last question 466 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: for now. Does it feel like there is a way out? 467 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 1: I mean, as you identify, is not just one negative storyline, 468 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 1: but certainly downtown that's the dominant story that's currently playing. 469 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:14,640 Speaker 1: Does it feel like the existing administration and the mayors 470 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 1: has a route out of this? If only how to 471 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 1: get hold of some money for a. 472 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 10: Start, right, there's definitely a way out of this. San Francisco, 473 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,639 Speaker 10: you know, was flattened. I mean, this is what the 474 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 10: mayor London Breed talks about. She said, Okay, so this 475 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 10: is a city that was literally in smoke and ashes 476 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 10: in nineteen oh six. 477 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 2: It was over. 478 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 10: It would never it would never come back after the 479 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 10: great earthquake. And she says, a change in people's work habits, 480 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 10: a change in people's retail habits is not the end 481 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 10: of San Francisco. And there is definitely intellectual ferment. There's 482 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:54,679 Speaker 10: venture capital, a tremendous talent pool, major universities. All of 483 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 10: that stays. But I think San Francisco is going to 484 00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:02,040 Speaker 10: have to undergo a tremendous reining. There's not going to 485 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 10: be this downtown core of thirty percent empty skyscrapers and 486 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,240 Speaker 10: empty shopping malls. These buildings look like fossils of the 487 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 10: way American cities were even you know, just a few 488 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:19,919 Speaker 10: years ago before the pandemic. So I think, you know, 489 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 10: the tax space is going to have to shift away 490 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,639 Speaker 10: from tech, it's going to have to shift away from 491 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,200 Speaker 10: real estate and financial services, it's going to have to 492 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,399 Speaker 10: shift away from retail, and these these are all the 493 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 10: things that powered San Francisco as recently as the before times. 494 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 2: So will this. 495 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 10: Happen on our current political cycle. I think it's highly unlikely. 496 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 10: I mean, we have an election you're coming up next year. 497 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,120 Speaker 1: Justin I mean, what Karen's describing obviously is sort of 498 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 1: everything that we think of as being a city is 499 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 1: going to have to be rethought. But you know, how 500 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 1: much is San Francisco an outlier in a US context, 501 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 1: and how much is it potentially a sort of harbinger 502 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,480 Speaker 1: of problems that other cities will be starting to have. 503 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 12: I mean, it's a pretty big outlier. And really, I 504 00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 12: think Karen expressed this already. It's the working from home 505 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 12: that has sort of caused all these things to come 506 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 12: to a head. San Francisco had been struggling with all 507 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 12: these problems for a while, and then suddenly Bay Area 508 00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 12: based companies were the most gung ho about getting people 509 00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 12: to stop coming into the office at the beginning of COVID. 510 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 12: Let it keep happening forever. The one other city in 511 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 12: the US that's sort of big city that's comparable in 512 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 12: the percentage of people that are still staying home is Washington, 513 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 12: d C. But it feels different. I guess like tourism 514 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:41,960 Speaker 12: has come back to Washington in a big way. So 515 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 12: at least the streets are full of people, even though 516 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,480 Speaker 12: the offices are I guess all empty, especially the government offices. 517 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 1: So yeah. 518 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 12: And then the other issue is that the Bay Area 519 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,080 Speaker 12: public transit system, at least the Bay Arey Rapid Transit, 520 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:59,400 Speaker 12: the biggest part of it, is very much just funded 521 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 12: by and to a much greater extent than most other 522 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 12: public transit systems in the US. So that's undergoing all 523 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 12: of these problems. Obviously, every major commercial district is struggling 524 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 12: to some greater or less extent with the fact that 525 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 12: people are coming into the office less often and maybe 526 00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 12: they don't need all those buildings, and that's going to 527 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 12: be a long and difficult and expensive process to figure 528 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:24,560 Speaker 12: out what to do about it. But I have not 529 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,760 Speaker 12: seen any place else in the US, except maybe Portland, Oregon, 530 00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:31,600 Speaker 12: which is sort of a similar economy and has kind 531 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:33,880 Speaker 12: of some issues of its own. They're even worse than 532 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,280 Speaker 12: San Francisco. But in general, it's unique. 533 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,560 Speaker 1: But it's interesting. I mean, it does. It feels a 534 00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 1: little bit like we're talking more now about kind of 535 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,440 Speaker 1: managing the long term consequences of success and of having 536 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 1: a certain amount of wealth come into a city or 537 00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 1: a city sort of region in a way that maybe 538 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 1: twenty thirty years ago we were talking about managing decline 539 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,680 Speaker 1: in some of these old industrial cities. When you look 540 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 1: at somewhere like Miami or other places that are actually 541 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,280 Speaker 1: is starting to attract people from other parts of the country, 542 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 1: certainly quite a lot of coming from Chicago for example, 543 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 1: and sort of heading south. Are there things they should 544 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 1: be looking out for, things to avoid or to try, 545 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 1: and how should they respond to that influx of money 546 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,760 Speaker 1: and then not have some of the same dynamics that 547 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:25,200 Speaker 1: we've seen played out in San Francisco. 548 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,400 Speaker 12: Well, the simplest answer is you build lots and lots 549 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 12: of housing. The difficulty is if you're in a coastal 550 00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 12: city that's already kind of pretty much full, it's hard 551 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 12: to do. I think it's hard to do anywhere in 552 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 12: the world. It seems especially hard in the US, although 553 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 12: I guess I get the sense that the south of 554 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 12: England is not super easy either. And so, I mean, 555 00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 12: like Austin, Texas has had this big inflow of people 556 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,640 Speaker 12: in wealth and has been adding new housing at a 557 00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 12: pace just way beyond any other large metropolitan area in 558 00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,000 Speaker 12: the US, and so it's gonna have a lot of 559 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:00,720 Speaker 12: growing pains. And I don't know how all those people 560 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 12: are going to get to work, but maybe they'll just 561 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 12: work from home. But it's clear that it's these coastal 562 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 12: cities in the US have had this extreme problem. In 563 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 12: California's it's been by far the most extreme in responding 564 00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 12: to new demand for housing. That the Bay Area was 565 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,760 Speaker 12: creating all these jobs for the last couple decades and 566 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 12: building very few new houses and apartments. I'm one of 567 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 12: those people who it's all about the housing. I think 568 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,640 Speaker 12: clearly it's other things too, And right now a lot 569 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,120 Speaker 12: of the focus is on other issues. And you know, 570 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 12: right now the Bay Area the last couple of years, 571 00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 12: people have been leaving, So you'd think that adding a 572 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,880 Speaker 12: whole bunch of new housing isn't the most pressing issue. 573 00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 12: But I don't know. I feel like that's that's at 574 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 12: the core of it. And I mean in New York 575 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 12: City it's a huge problem, which in New York City 576 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,760 Speaker 12: has had more of a rebound, more of a return 577 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,440 Speaker 12: of people, and housing prices here just in the city 578 00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:59,880 Speaker 12: proper are insane, and whereas there's been at least some 579 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 12: correction in San Francisco. 580 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 1: In Europe, is very fashionable to talk about the fifteen 581 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,240 Speaker 1: minute city. I mean, is that going to be part 582 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:08,640 Speaker 1: of the sort of reinvention of downtown in some of 583 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:09,560 Speaker 1: these places? 584 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 12: Well, I mean in San Francisco, the issue is that 585 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 12: and this is true in New York although New York 586 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 12: sort of has a couple of downtowns, but the best 587 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 12: transit connections are all sort of go through that downtown, 588 00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:26,320 Speaker 12: the financial district and nearby areas and so it's absolutely 589 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,160 Speaker 12: true that the neighborhoods out in San Francisco are pretty 590 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:33,240 Speaker 12: vibrant and you can live a fifteen minute lifestyle. But 591 00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,400 Speaker 12: if you want to get to the other side of town, 592 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 12: very often it ends up going through the middle. And 593 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 12: so if that, something's got to happen with that core, 594 00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,400 Speaker 12: and I just don't know what it is at this point, 595 00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 12: I just wanted. 596 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:47,360 Speaker 10: To chime in on the reimagining down the middle. I 597 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:52,040 Speaker 10: interviewed London Breed at our technology summit last week and 598 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 10: she just threw out, She just spitball. She said, why 599 00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 10: are we all worked up about the empty mall? The 600 00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 10: Westfield Mall, which was taken, as you know, the death knell. 601 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 10: And she asked the audience how many of you have 602 00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,920 Speaker 10: shopped there in the last two you know, even in 603 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,799 Speaker 10: the last five years. Very few hands went up. She said, 604 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:10,520 Speaker 10: where do you get your stuff? You go online, you 605 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,840 Speaker 10: buy it, So why are we flipping out about an 606 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,520 Speaker 10: empty shopping mall. I'm paraphrasing her very very crudely, but 607 00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:19,560 Speaker 10: she said, why do why do we need a shopping mall? 608 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:21,520 Speaker 10: Why why don't we have a soccer stage? So she 609 00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,960 Speaker 10: kind of spitballed this idea, which got picked up here 610 00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:28,879 Speaker 10: in lots of memes, and you know, then, of course, 611 00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,360 Speaker 10: being San franciscoverybody started piling on about what a terrible 612 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,520 Speaker 10: idea that would be in hell could you? But you 613 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,480 Speaker 10: know I did that. Well, there there was a little 614 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:38,919 Speaker 10: she took a little, a little uh you know, flight 615 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:43,000 Speaker 10: of imagination right there in real time, with absolutely no forethought. 616 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:47,360 Speaker 10: But it maybe it does take that kind of radical reimagination. 617 00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:51,080 Speaker 10: I mean, the Giants play downtown, you know, why not? 618 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 10: Why not major League soccer? 619 00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,000 Speaker 1: So all football as we might. 620 00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,239 Speaker 10: I'm sorry, thank you. Yes, the spherical object to es. 621 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,520 Speaker 1: Well, that would be that would be very controversy. That 622 00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:05,000 Speaker 1: would set us up for an enormous debate. In my household, 623 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,600 Speaker 1: we live in the shadow of an enormous Westfield, but 624 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 1: we also where at least one of my children spends 625 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,680 Speaker 1: a lot of their lives. But there are also some 626 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 1: keen football fans who quite wouldn't mind having a new 627 00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 1: stagment a very bad local team. So yeah, that'll set 628 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 1: the conversation around the dinner table. So finally, we have 629 00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,400 Speaker 1: to always because we now live also in the shadow 630 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:30,479 Speaker 1: of the presidential and general election in twenty twenty four. 631 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 1: I mean I should ask both of you, but certainly, Karen, 632 00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,640 Speaker 1: what are the political Clearly the Republicans think that they 633 00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:41,200 Speaker 1: can make score some points, pointing to San Francisco as 634 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,920 Speaker 1: an example of an indi California as an example of 635 00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:45,800 Speaker 1: a democratic rule runner. 636 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:46,120 Speaker 10: Muck. 637 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:51,239 Speaker 1: Are there broader political implications from what's going on? 638 00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 10: Yes, I think you can. You can throw San Francisco 639 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:57,799 Speaker 10: on the ballot pretty much anywhere you're running right and 640 00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,960 Speaker 10: say is this what you want? We're already seeing this. 641 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,719 Speaker 10: We saw Ron de Santists come out. There does seem 642 00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:06,279 Speaker 10: to be a little pattern of stopping to record, you know, 643 00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:11,160 Speaker 10: a horror scene somewhere in San Francisco and shake their 644 00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,120 Speaker 10: heads and say, oh my, is this what you want? 645 00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,600 Speaker 10: So San Francisco is on the ballot everywhere, you know, 646 00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:23,960 Speaker 10: shorthand for for democratic. Uh, dystopia if you're a Republican. 647 00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:31,160 Speaker 10: And yeah, even if you're a Democrat, San Francisco right now, Uh, 648 00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:35,320 Speaker 10: this bastion of you know, of tolerance and acceptance and 649 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:39,880 Speaker 10: creativity and social progress is very hard to point to 650 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:46,239 Speaker 10: the social values that Democratic voters might might agree with. 651 00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:50,120 Speaker 10: If you look at some of the streetscapes, So it's 652 00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:52,480 Speaker 10: it's very tricky, but I think in a weird way, 653 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,480 Speaker 10: you're going to see a lot more Republican candidates here 654 00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,160 Speaker 10: to record their ads and collect their money. 655 00:36:58,400 --> 00:36:58,640 Speaker 9: Uh. 656 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,719 Speaker 10: But that and maybe four or five percent of the 657 00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,000 Speaker 10: of the electorate will vote for them. 658 00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,280 Speaker 1: Well, it sounds like the mess to increase the fees 659 00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:08,120 Speaker 1: for filming on the street anyway. 660 00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:11,520 Speaker 10: Political ads, Yeah, they want to pass the tin cup 661 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:12,080 Speaker 10: right there. 662 00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 1: And just in final question to you, can you imagine 663 00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:19,040 Speaker 1: any politicians, I mean, given that there's some serious economic consequences, 664 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:20,920 Speaker 1: is anyone going to be brave enough to tell people 665 00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:22,200 Speaker 1: to go back to the office. 666 00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:27,160 Speaker 12: I mean, obviously lots of people in New York have 667 00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:33,399 Speaker 12: done that and in the financial sector pretty successfully. But politicians, well, 668 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:35,840 Speaker 12: I mean the mayor Adams here does that all the time, 669 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,760 Speaker 12: although he's final. It's funny because in New York City, 670 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:42,480 Speaker 12: and this was under Deblasio, his predecessor, they actually, uh 671 00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,279 Speaker 12: required all city employees to come in five days a week, 672 00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:50,960 Speaker 12: and they're finally relaxing that. Yeah, that's a pop I mean, 673 00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:54,759 Speaker 12: the Republicans had this bill that they keep bringing up 674 00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,480 Speaker 12: to I forget. It's got some great acronym, but it's 675 00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:00,759 Speaker 12: in Washington to force federal employees to go back to work. 676 00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,759 Speaker 12: So yes, I think there's a slight partisan valance to 677 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,040 Speaker 12: the whole going back to the office thing, because it's 678 00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:10,279 Speaker 12: it's something that white collar professionals are the ones who 679 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,719 Speaker 12: can work from harm and they almost all the democratic 680 00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:13,240 Speaker 12: these days. 681 00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:16,600 Speaker 1: Karen Breslaud, Justin Fox, thank you very. 682 00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:20,040 Speaker 10: Much, so closure, Stephanie, thanks for having us. 683 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,239 Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Stephonomics. Next week we'll 684 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,120 Speaker 1: have more. In the meantime, you can get a lot 685 00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:29,880 Speaker 1: more economic insight and news from the Bloomberg Terminal website 686 00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:33,759 Speaker 1: or app. This episode was produced by Mangnus Hendrickson, Yang 687 00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:37,840 Speaker 1: Yang and Summer Sadi, with help from Abria Ruffin. Special 688 00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:42,640 Speaker 1: thanks to Manus Cranny, Michelle jam Risco, Kevin Varley, David Ramley, 689 00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,520 Speaker 1: Karen Breslau, and Justin Fox. But Mollie Smith is the 690 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,560 Speaker 1: executive producer of Stephanomics and the head of Bloomberg podcast 691 00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:50,360 Speaker 1: is Sage. 692 00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:50,640 Speaker 2: Both