WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Eric Van Nostrand

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The single best idea

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<v Speaker 1>is a newsflow has been and on this Friday is extraordinary.

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<v Speaker 1>At any given point you look at, say the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>launch pad, which is a layout of equities, bonds, currencies

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<v Speaker 1>and commodities and blinking at a high rate of speed

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<v Speaker 1>as the market reacts to all this newsflow. You find

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<v Speaker 1>one statistic, But you can't do that. You have to

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<v Speaker 1>look at two, three, four five statistics and synthesize in

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<v Speaker 1>the correlations or lack of correlations. So when I say,

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<v Speaker 1>oils edging up ninety one ready to print ninety two

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<v Speaker 1>up twenty six percent off of the friday before the

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<v Speaker 1>beginning of the war, that's just one statistic. How did

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<v Speaker 1>that do against fixed income bonds a ten year yield?

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<v Speaker 1>How did that do against the stock market? Did the

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<v Speaker 1>stock market bounce off oil? Did the stock market bounce

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<v Speaker 1>off currency? With a blended dollar index? Getting right back

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<v Speaker 1>to that strong dollar era, all those people certain of

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<v Speaker 1>week dollar really having a difficult week. Then all of

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<v Speaker 1>this market comes back to market talk, comes back to economics.

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<v Speaker 1>We had Claudias samwe Us today New Century Advisors. She

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<v Speaker 1>saw a job's report that moved away from the optimism

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<v Speaker 1>of thirty one days ago.

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<v Speaker 2>Clearly, these numbers from February are not in like you know,

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<v Speaker 2>checking the box on signs of stabilization in the labor market, right,

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<v Speaker 2>we're losing jobs and I don't ready ticked up. This

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<v Speaker 2>is not a good sign. This actually sits pretty consistently,

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<v Speaker 2>especially the last three months, with what we saw all

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<v Speaker 2>of last year. The US economy last year created almost

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<v Speaker 2>no jobs on net right, and at the same time

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<v Speaker 2>because zuomer spending increased, business investment incre GDP rose for

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<v Speaker 2>the year on on trend right. It may we can

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<v Speaker 2>talk about concentration, we can talk about what sectors it's in,

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<v Speaker 2>but we have already been for a year in a

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<v Speaker 2>jobless expansion. So unfortunately, what the February data, with this

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<v Speaker 2>latest labor market data suggests is the still where we're at.

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<v Speaker 1>Claudia some new century advised. There's a lot of good

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<v Speaker 1>voices today and wonderful set of conversations John Ferro and

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<v Speaker 1>Michael McKee having good conversations with Governor Waller, with President

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<v Speaker 1>Gouldsby of the Booth School Chicago, and of course John

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<v Speaker 1>Ferroll speaking with Kevin Hasse to the White House trying

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<v Speaker 1>to glean forward here with oil again, butterstup against ninety two.

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<v Speaker 1>We spoke to Eric Vanastron of Lizard. Let's listen, the

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<v Speaker 1>market is trying to look through it. Even though these

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<v Speaker 1>oil price moves look big, the stock market moves this

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<v Speaker 1>week feel painful in the grand scheme of things. US

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<v Speaker 1>equities are just at the bottom of the range they've

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<v Speaker 1>been since October. Oil still off its heights from since

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<v Speaker 1>the since the Ukrainian invasion. But I think that that

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<v Speaker 1>relative sanguinity, that relative calm is out of line with

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<v Speaker 1>the level of fundamental risks in the backdrop here. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's why I think paying close attention to traffic in

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<v Speaker 1>the Gulf is going to be very important. Eric Phenostrian

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<v Speaker 1>with us. Don't forget Bloomberg this weekend. They have a

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<v Speaker 1>full schedule on Saturday. On Sunday beginning at seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>On podcasts, We're out at Apple, We're out at Spotify,

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<v Speaker 1>at YouTube podcasts. Its single best idea