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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by about three

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Speaker 1: six five.

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Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chadmillman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network,

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Speaker 1: joining me today.

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Speaker 2: Dude, this is such a big show.

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Speaker 1: My co host, my companion, my compadre might BFF professional

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Speaker 1: better Simon hunter Head.

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Speaker 2: Oh so I'm in, Hello Chad?

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Speaker 3: What are we? Six seven weeks out from the start

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Speaker 3: of the season. Brother Rome was there?

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Speaker 1: We are so close since we last spoke, Caleb Williams

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Speaker 1: and Roman Dunesa. I've officially signed their contracts with the

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Speaker 1: Chicago Bears.

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Speaker 2: That's all I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: Next week we begin our annual NFL Division previews, and

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Speaker 1: so we want to seize the moment. Today is training

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Speaker 1: camps open across the NFL. To bring on two of

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Speaker 1: my favorite leagues could be Action Networks smartest people. They're

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Speaker 1: going to discuss, Simon. I think you and I can agree.

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Speaker 1: The luck rankings have revolutionized how we've looked at games

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Speaker 1: the past couple of years. This is like, it's very

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Speaker 1: infrequent that a new stat is created that has such

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Speaker 1: a huge impact on how we look at the games,

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Speaker 1: and that is so accurate in terms of reflecting quality

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Speaker 1: of play, quality of teams, separating signals from the noise

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Speaker 1: in how we do our jobs.

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Speaker 2: You know, I love it. I know that you love it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they've taken some of that stupid people like me.

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Speaker 3: They say, well, I'm buying loan a team and actually

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Speaker 3: put some math behind it. So for years I always

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Speaker 3: talked about me and Chad love buying low on teams.

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Speaker 3: I get embarrassed, especially in primetime games. And then he

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Speaker 3: become a couple of geniuses that actually can put the

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Speaker 3: data behind it. And uh, you know, even even when

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Speaker 3: me and you don't even see an edge, they come

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Speaker 3: to us of these luck rankings. We go, Okay, that's

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Speaker 3: actually a pretty huge edge in that game. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: we love it.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the show, the engine of our predictive analytics team.

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Speaker 1: Two of the most respected people in the industry, Sean

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Speaker 1: Kerner and doctor Nick Giffen Fellas.

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Speaker 4: Patty, what's going on. It's been a long off season.

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Speaker 1: It has been a long off seas. I mean, you

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Speaker 1: don't have an off season, no, doctor Nick.

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Speaker 3: I don't.

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Speaker 4: With basketball and NASCAR.

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Speaker 1: And his true story, true story, I was interviewing a

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Speaker 1: candidate for a job and this is always a really

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Speaker 1: good indicator to me of whether or not someone knows

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Speaker 1: our business, because everyone always like, I'm so excited about

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Speaker 1: Action Network blah blah blah blah blah blah. And so

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Speaker 1: I'll be like, tell me about your how did you

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Speaker 1: find Action Network? And so he started telling me that

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Speaker 1: originally he was betting a lot of hockey and was

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Speaker 1: trying to make hockey models, but then discovered the Action

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Speaker 1: Network app and started to bet Nascar, and he named

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Speaker 1: not ass Like, tell me, you know, who do you

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Speaker 1: like to follow in the app? The first person he

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Speaker 1: named doctor Nick Giffen because of Nascar. That's how you

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Speaker 1: know somebody loves Action And of course we immediately hired

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Speaker 1: that person.

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Speaker 4: I like it.

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Speaker 1: Nick's a little low right now because he's he's injured.

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Speaker 1: Otherwise I feel like he'd be jumping out of his

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Speaker 1: seat with the recognition.

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Speaker 4: I don't know it kind of yeah, I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I get a little embarrassed on the recognition sometimes.

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Speaker 3: I told you, my favorite Nick story is we're all

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Speaker 3: in the office together, Chad and I think we hit

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Speaker 3: It was like a seventeen to one or ten to

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Speaker 3: one guy to score a touchdown and we're all going crazy,

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Speaker 3: we're all celebrating, and Nick is just right back on

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Speaker 3: his computer looking for the next guy to bet live.

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Speaker 3: I was just like, this guy is a machine. Truly,

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Speaker 3: you are a.

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Speaker 2: Machine, Nick, You know what, Shawn Kerner's not that either.

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Speaker 3: These are right.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: this season. All right, Cerner, Yeah, we love the luck rankings.

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Speaker 1: I remember exactly where we were when the idea for

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Speaker 1: the luck rankings was hatched. Explain to people what the

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Speaker 1: luck rankings are. Why you do all this work, why

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Speaker 1: create these things?

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Speaker 5: Yeah? So, you know, Simon actually hit the nail on

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Speaker 5: the head when he was saying, you know, we're looking

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Speaker 5: for teams to buy low sell high on. So I

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Speaker 5: had been using a similar concept to the luck rankings

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Speaker 5: years ago when I was trying to attack you know,

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Speaker 5: season long win totals and you know, the ideas that

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Speaker 5: a team's record, you know, is a factual thing, but

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Speaker 5: it can be misleading because there's a ton of other

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Speaker 5: factors at play, a lot of which are due to luck.

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Speaker 5: So I was just looking at more high level things

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Speaker 5: like a team's one score records, strength of schedule, injury luck,

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Speaker 5: opponent field goal luck, and other factors. So the idea

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Speaker 5: was just to get a sense of which teams are

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Speaker 5: probably over or underachieving and look to you know, buy

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Speaker 5: or sell the upcoming season. During the season, you know,

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Speaker 5: I would, I would kind of play around with it

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Speaker 5: and you know, kind of use that for my spread bets.

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Speaker 5: But you know, eventually I realized, you know, this is

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Speaker 5: probably a really good idea that can be like formalized

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Speaker 5: and used in season. And you know what better person,

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Speaker 5: the genius that is Nick get him to come up

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Speaker 5: with the formalized version of this. But that was kind

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Speaker 5: of the overall idea of it. And I was just

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Speaker 5: you know, rubbing two sticks together. And then Nick, you know,

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Speaker 5: invented sort of the convention oven of like just making

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Speaker 5: it work. But that was kind of the idea behind it,

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Speaker 5: kind of because we all have our own perceptions of

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Speaker 5: teams and stuff which can be skewed. So just a

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Speaker 5: way to kind of look at the underlying data, underlying

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Speaker 5: luck factors and kind of, you know, really gauge which

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Speaker 5: teams we should be betting on or fading hearnery.

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Speaker 1: You set up Nick so nicely, and I know he's

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Speaker 1: super shy and doesn't like the attention, but Nick, please

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Speaker 1: explain the actual mechanics. What are we talking about here?

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Speaker 1: What do they quantify? How did you test these?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? So obviously Sean approached me about this, and uh, I,

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Speaker 4: you know have I basically got my start in sports

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Speaker 4: analytics with college basketball and Ken Pomeroy has a luck

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Speaker 4: column on his you know, his homepage there, and I've

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Speaker 4: always been super interested in, you know, like the saber

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Speaker 4: metrics behind sports, whether it's baseball or basketball or anything

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Speaker 4: like that. And so there's something called Pythagorean expectation or

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Speaker 4: Pythagorean wins, and very often that's used as a way of,

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Speaker 4: you know, saying which teams were lucky or which teams

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Speaker 4: were unlucky, which is based off of your point scored

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Speaker 4: and your points allowed. However, points Gordon points allowed can

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Speaker 4: be a little misleading, which is where we get to

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Speaker 4: the idea of the luck ranking. So instead of doing

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Speaker 4: points Gordon points allowed and just you know, taking that expectation,

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Speaker 4: I went another level with it, and there's actually multiple

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Speaker 4: levels you can go, and there's some called second order

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Speaker 4: Pythagorean wins or third order Pythagoreon wins, and second order

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Speaker 4: is basically saying, instead of using your point differential, we'll

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Speaker 4: use your expected point differential, right, because if you get

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Speaker 4: a lot of ninety nine yard touchdowns, that's not sustainable,

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Speaker 4: but that shows up in your point differential, but it

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Speaker 4: wouldn't really be your expected point differential. So that's kind

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Speaker 4: of the idea. But instead of just using scoring plays

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Speaker 4: or luck based plays, right, like maybe if you're on

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Speaker 4: defense and you're the opposing team drops a wide open pass,

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Speaker 4: yeah that's lucky or fumble luck, those kinds of things.

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Speaker 4: Instead of just using those purely luck based plays, I

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Speaker 4: use every single play in the whole game, and I say, okay,

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Speaker 4: it's first and ten from the twenty five yard line.

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Speaker 4: What does this team do against the opposing team on

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Speaker 4: first and ten from the twenty five yard line? If

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Speaker 4: we replayed this a million times, and then what happened

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Speaker 4: on this specific play? Did that come over or under

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Speaker 4: the average expectation? If we replayed that situation a million times?

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Speaker 4: And the nice thing is it adjusts for the team's strength. Right,

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Speaker 4: So we're talking about if it's the Eagles versus the

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Speaker 4: New York Giants or something like that, you know, and

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Speaker 4: the Eagles offense and the Giants defense, we're expecting the

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Speaker 4: Eagles to have a better baseline than if it was

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Speaker 4: the New York Giants offense versus the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 4: defense or something like that. So it adjust relative to

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Speaker 4: each team strength as well. So it's not just saying

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Speaker 4: the average NFL play, saying the average NFL play based

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Speaker 4: off these team strengths, and that automatically injury adjusts because

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Speaker 4: if you have one of your best players injured, the

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Speaker 4: expectation changes as well. So it really is a true

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Speaker 4: measure of team luck. And it takes every single play

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Speaker 4: from the whole NFL season and then produces an expected score.

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Speaker 4: How many points should this team have scored in the

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Speaker 4: game and how many points should they have allowed in

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Speaker 4: this game? And you know, like I said, a lot

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Speaker 4: of things go in to it every single play, team strengths,

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Speaker 4: play volume, FUELD position, all that stuff goes into it,

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Speaker 4: and we get an expected score and from there we

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Speaker 4: can derive an expected win or loss percentage. Compare that

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Speaker 4: to a team's actual women loss, and then we can

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Speaker 4: get what we call our luck percentage.

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Speaker 2: Samon, I know you want to jump in. Let me

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Speaker 2: just ask Nick to do one thing.

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Speaker 1: Explain to people why you're called doctor Nick, because I

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Speaker 1: think it's worthwhile for them to understand the baseline from

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Speaker 1: which you come to be able to do this kind

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Speaker 1: of math.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. So I have a background in mathematics. Both my

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Speaker 4: parents were mathematics teachers at University of Virginia, and so

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Speaker 4: naturally I fell into a math background as well. I

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Speaker 4: got my undergrad in mathematics, but then I also got

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Speaker 4: my PhD in mathematics, which is why I am a

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Speaker 4: doctor of mathematics. So that's why you call me doctor Nick.

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Speaker 3: And I'm sure Nick got sick of me and Chad

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Speaker 3: couldn't anytime we lose a bet. I feel like every

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Speaker 3: time chat, we're texting doctor Nick here and being like, hey,

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Speaker 3: we're on the right side. Right the maths work didn't

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Speaker 3: work out for us, but mathematically we were on the

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Speaker 3: right side. Nick's just nicely, He's like, yeah, you guys

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Speaker 3: probably had a seventy percent chance of covering that game.

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Speaker 3: You really shouldn't and Yeah, that's that's why we love

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Speaker 3: throwing in and we talk about the time, it's probability,

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Speaker 3: all the math behind this. I mean, it's just so

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Speaker 3: heavy and people get annoyed abyt the like you guys

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Speaker 3: talk about the numbers so much and trust in your system.

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Speaker 3: It's like, you know, you can't always go against the numbers, right.

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Speaker 3: There's like there's times here me and Chat talking on

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Speaker 3: the show, we like a side. If these guys are

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Speaker 3: on the other side their luck rankings and a couple

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Speaker 3: of other stuff, the trends on the other side of it,

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Speaker 3: Me and Chat will walk away from those bets, right,

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Speaker 3: And more often than not, it's worked out from us.

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Speaker 3: So I know it sounds crazy for people, but there

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Speaker 3: really is. There's a rhythm behind this. So just to

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Speaker 3: follow up one and Nick, there's a difference right between

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Speaker 3: what you guys are doing here in DVOA.

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Speaker 4: Correct, absolutely, And you know that was one of the

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Speaker 4: things I like to talk about. So DVOA measures and

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Speaker 4: it's a great metric. I love DVOA. We use it

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Speaker 4: all the time, but it measures.

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Speaker 3: What happened on man's numbers, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: It's it's I mean, there's a lot of high level

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Speaker 4: map that goes into that as well, but it measures

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Speaker 4: what happened on the field, so it doesn't measure luck.

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Speaker 4: It is saying, this is what happened. And if you're

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Speaker 4: the luckiest team in the world and every bounce your

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Speaker 4: way and every ninety nine yard play was a touchdown,

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Speaker 4: it would say you're the greatest team in the history

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Speaker 4: of the world. But you'd be expected to regress, and

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Speaker 4: it doesn't tell you that, right, So it's a wonderful metric.

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Speaker 4: It tells you how teams have performed, but it doesn't

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Speaker 4: tell you how teams are probably going to perform going forward.

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Speaker 4: And I think that's one of the nice things about

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Speaker 4: the Luck rankings is it's forward looking. You mentioned simon

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Speaker 4: buying high or buying low or selling high on a team, Well,

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Speaker 4: you can buy low in a couple different ways. If

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Speaker 4: a team wins barely wins, you wouldn't really consider that

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Speaker 4: a buy low. But what they should have won by

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Speaker 4: twenty right, and they won by one point. That's a

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Speaker 4: way to buy low on a team, and people don't

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Speaker 4: often see that way. And I think that's something that's

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Speaker 4: really cool about the Luck rankings is we now have

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Speaker 4: a way to see that we have a way to

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Speaker 4: see we can buy low even if the team is

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Speaker 4: three and oh. You know, maybe they're three and oh,

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Speaker 4: and they should be three and oh with a plus

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Speaker 4: fifty point differential instead of three and oh with a

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Speaker 4: plus five point differential or something like that, just based

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Speaker 4: off the way the bounces have gone. And conversely, there

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Speaker 4: could be an oh and three team that we actually

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Speaker 4: don't want to buy low on because they should be

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Speaker 4: zero and three.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: So, uh, this is now a way for us to

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Speaker 4: really see how teams are doing compared to their record

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Speaker 4: or compared to their point differentials, you know, versus what

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Speaker 4: they actually should be.

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Speaker 2: So Simon is right.

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Speaker 1: I would say over the past two years since we

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Speaker 1: launched Luck Rankings, the number of times we have both

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Speaker 1: liked the side that we thought was against the numbers

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Speaker 1: that years past we definitely would have bet that game.

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Speaker 1: Since the Luck Rankings, we'll look at and like, by Thursday,

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Speaker 1: when the Luck Rankings have come out and like this

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Speaker 1: game would have been one of our top five games,

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Speaker 1: We'll be like, ah, fuck, the Luck Rankings.

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Speaker 2: Don't like it and like it changes. It makes us

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Speaker 2: so upset.

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Speaker 1: Sean, Yeah, last year's unluckiest teams and describe sort of

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Speaker 1: the teams and then how you're defining the percentage in

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Speaker 1: like how you're using percentages to define the luck and unlucky.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so let's just talk three unluckiest teams, and I

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Speaker 5: guess it's kind of ironic they're all from the NSC South.

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Speaker 5: The unluckiest team from last season was the Carolina Panthers.

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Speaker 5: You know, they only won two games, but they were

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Speaker 5: expected to win around four and a half, which I

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Speaker 5: believe is their current win total right now. But you know,

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Speaker 5: they were arguably the worsting league and had quite a

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Speaker 5: bit of bout luck. So I think it's fair for

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Speaker 5: us to be down on them. But I think just

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Speaker 5: due to a lot of the underlying factors we've discussed,

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Speaker 5: maybe they weren't as bad as we thought. You know,

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Speaker 5: they went two and six and one score games. And

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Speaker 5: the thing with one score games is you would expect

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Speaker 5: most teams to be around five hundred when a game falls,

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Speaker 5: but within you know, one score, it's kind of lucky

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Speaker 5: when you win versus you know, if you were to

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Speaker 5: blow a team out of the water and win by

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Speaker 5: ten plus, it's less luck in that case. So you know,

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Speaker 5: they were on two wins fewer just looking at their

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Speaker 5: one score record. Plus you know, opponents made ninety six

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Speaker 5: percent of their field goals against them. That's something that's

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Speaker 5: kind of outside of the control and probably contributed to

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Speaker 5: them losing so many, you know, close games. They were

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Speaker 5: third worst in injury luck, which is kind of outside

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Speaker 5: of the luck rankings. But when it comes to looking

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Speaker 5: at their you know, twenty twenty four outlook, this is

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Speaker 5: a team that checks all the boxes of a team

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Speaker 5: that I think webably by on. I think they're going, oh,

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Speaker 5: you're shaking your head already. Oh, it's just.

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Speaker 2: Because I can't believe you're doing this to us.

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Speaker 1: We bet the Carolina Panthers so often last year, so

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Speaker 1: many times.

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Speaker 3: Whose we oh you guys end of the season though,

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Speaker 3: end of season towards.

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Speaker 1: Das towards the end of season, like we were on

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Speaker 1: them constantly because a because of luck ranks, but be like,

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Speaker 1: at that point in the.

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Speaker 2: Year, they were so undervalued.

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Speaker 3: We're getting free by points every week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and so like we were constantly betting them and

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Speaker 1: constantly losing on the pad and like.

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Speaker 3: The worst ugliest fashion you can even imagine, though every

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Speaker 3: time it was pure heartbreak.

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Speaker 4: But that's the thing is, like, you know, when teams

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Speaker 4: are unlucky and we bet on them, there's still only

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Speaker 4: a you know, I wouldn't say fifty to fifty chance,

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Speaker 4: but like there's they're undervalued in the market, but there's

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Speaker 4: still a chance they don't improve. Right, we expect regression,

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Speaker 4: but it they'lln't always happen. So that's the whole point. Like,

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Speaker 4: we haven't even talked about the record of the luck rankings,

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Speaker 4: but luck rankings hit it over a sixty rate, over

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Speaker 4: a long, big second size.

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Speaker 1: We're going to get there. That is the That is

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Speaker 1: the kicker. That's what's going to keep people sticking around.

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Speaker 1: Is you tellent talking about the threshold and the percentage,

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Speaker 1: the win percentage against the spread, the luck rankings. We've

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Speaker 1: already talked about how the Panthers are going to be

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Speaker 1: a team. Simon and I have said this that we're

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Speaker 1: practically on every week and we can't believe we're going

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Speaker 1: to ask our listeners to do that again.

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Speaker 3: So the most expensive they have the most expensive line

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Speaker 3: on football now chats. So I'm moving it's going to

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Speaker 3: eat people's pain. I'm like, hey, there's there's some logic

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Speaker 3: behind this, Uh parent Panthers love this year.

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Speaker 2: So now we know was wearing the Panthers hat.

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Speaker 3: Yep, yeph.

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Speaker 2: Who else? Who else? Is the bottom of the list.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned three teams.

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Speaker 5: So the second unluckiest were the New Orleans Saints. You know,

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Speaker 5: they they did win nine games, but they're expected wintles

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Speaker 5: closer to eleven and a half similar situation where they

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Speaker 5: were three and six in one score games, so a

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Speaker 5: bit of you know, unluckiness there. But they had a

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Speaker 5: plus seventy five point differential. Just for reference, you know,

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Speaker 5: the Chiefs had a plus seventy seven point differential. You know,

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Speaker 5: they finished with eleven wins. The Lions had a plus

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Speaker 5: sixty six point differential. They had twelve wins. So you know,

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Speaker 5: the Saints played much better than the record. Now, having

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Speaker 5: said that, you know, they did have the seventh best

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Speaker 5: injury luck and they had the easiest schedule, so I'm

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Speaker 5: not saying that we can necessarily bank on them to

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Speaker 5: have more wins this year. So, out of the three

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Speaker 5: teams from the MC South that were the unluckiest teams,

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Speaker 5: they're probably the least likely team for me personally to

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Speaker 5: back their over because we can't bet on the over

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Speaker 5: on everybody in the NFC South. So they're a team

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Speaker 5: where they were certainly unlucky, but they didn't really check

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Speaker 5: the boxes for me of you know, twenty twenty four

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Speaker 5: bounce back or success or an improvement in win total.

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Speaker 5: I think it was just based on last year. They

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Speaker 5: played much better than their nine one record indicated, but again,

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Speaker 5: were there were other factors around that outside of luck.

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Speaker 3: Chad, you know, I'm a Derek Carr truther. I'll just

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Speaker 3: say this really quick. From week eleven to week eighteen,

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Speaker 3: number two quarterback and Pro Football Focus Derek Carr. So

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Speaker 3: I know it's not saying much because Derek Carr, they

385
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Speaker 3: didn't really win that many games in the stretch, but

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Speaker 3: he didn't play as bad as people perceived last year

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Speaker 3: once he got comfortable in the offense. That's kind of

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Speaker 3: my whole point with then just going to this year,

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Speaker 3: people should know bookmakers say right now they're the least

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Speaker 3: beat team in the futures market and win total Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl Divisional odds. No one believes in the Saints in

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Speaker 3: this upcoming season.

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Speaker 1: Well, you know what the problem is, and this is

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Speaker 1: something that's interesting to me about the luck rankings that

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Speaker 1: I don't want to go too deeply in now because

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Speaker 1: I want to give full context. But we don't like

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Speaker 1: the Saints because we think Dennis Allen is a terrible coach,

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Speaker 1: And what Sean is saying to me supports the idea

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Speaker 1: that their luck is partially driven by really bad strategy

400
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Speaker 1: and decision making and not putting them in a position

401
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Speaker 1: to succeed and to have any luck. So the Panthers

402
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:15,720
Speaker 1: makes more sense, whereas the Saints it makes sense that

403
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Speaker 1: their luck ranking is so low because Dennis Allen is

404
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Speaker 1: just not very good at his job, Sean, who else?

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Speaker 5: So the third unluckiest team again signing at the NF

406
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Speaker 5: his South, is the Atlanta Falcons. You know, they they

407
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Speaker 5: ended up only winning seven games, but they were expected

408
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Speaker 5: to win around eight and a half, which wasn't any

409
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Speaker 5: good for my over eight and a half win total

410
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Speaker 5: ticket for them last year. So I guess this is

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Speaker 5: one of those situations where Nick would agree that, you know,

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Speaker 5: maybe I was a bit unlucky backing their over last year.

413
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Speaker 5: But they're a team where there were certainly a ton

414
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Speaker 5: of signals of bad luck, you know, four and six

415
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 5: record one score games, opponents made ninety five percent of

416
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Speaker 5: field goals against them, so similar thing where you know

417
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Speaker 5: a lot of those close games maybe was driven by

418
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 5: bad field goal luck. You know, I think it's safe

419
00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 5: to say that one of the drivers of the Falcons

420
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Speaker 5: seven win season was his poor quarterback play. You know,

421
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Speaker 5: Desmond Ridder was sort of certifiably bad. And if your

422
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Speaker 5: called the first time I actually walked the plank betting

423
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Speaker 5: on the Panthers wasn't till Week fifteen when they played

424
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Speaker 5: the Falcons, and I watched that entire game. It was awful,

425
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Speaker 5: and I would say Desmond Ridder literally lost that game,

426
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Speaker 5: Like if they had any other quarterback, they win that game.

427
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Speaker 5: So looking ahead to twenty twenty four, they are absolutely

428
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Speaker 5: correcting that by bringing in a veteran like Kirk Cousins.

429
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 5: They have all the pieces there, but just bring in,

430
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Speaker 5: you know, a quarterback like Kirk Cousins and that can

431
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Speaker 5: just really boost the incoming regression anyway. So that's why

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Speaker 5: I do like them. But they did make the bizarre move,

433
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Speaker 5: you know, in terms of short term prospects by drafting

434
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Speaker 5: Michael Pennix in the top ten. But you could argue

435
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 5: that they had one of the potentially better backup quarterbacks,

436
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 5: which can you know, raise their team's floor or whatnot.

437
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,719
Speaker 5: They're a team similar to the Panthers where I'm definitely

438
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 5: interested investing twenty twenty four. I think they check all

439
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,400
Speaker 5: the boxes of a team that you know will bounce back.

440
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 5: And I know the market's probably higher on them than

441
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,239
Speaker 5: the Panthers, but they're one of those teams that I

442
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 5: think is they definitely have a lot of signals of

443
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 5: bouncing back and exceeding expectations this season.

444
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, They're fascinating to me, and you know, our listeners

445
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 1: know we're an Atlanta Falcons podcast. We cannot quit the

446
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons. And I feel badly for Arthur Smith. I

447
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:35,719
Speaker 1: think the guy kind of got shafted. They didn't give

448
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 1: him any players to really run that offense, and so

449
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 1: how can he be blamed for not being able to

450
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: utilize Jon or Kyle Pitts or even Drake London to

451
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 1: the extent that he's able to And they've got nobody

452
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 1: who can throw the ball and is constantly losing you games. Simon,

453
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: We're going to be betting a lot of the most irrelevant

454
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 1: division in all of football this year.

455
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 3: We'll see because I as much as I do like

456
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 3: what Atlanta's done offensively, they lost their DC who I love.

457
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 3: I mean obviously their head coach. He's specialty is defense,

458
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 3: But that's a big deal to me. And their D line,

459
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 3: Chad I got them the greatt my third worst D

460
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 3: line head into the season. So yeah, they might be

461
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,399
Speaker 3: one of the easiest teams to run the ball against

462
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 3: this upcoming season. I mean, I think their top two

463
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 3: pass rushers left, so it is a big deal. Like

464
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 3: it is a big deal Atlanta. Atlanta's defense might be bad,

465
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 3: but again, if we're talking fantasy and offense, that's even

466
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 3: better if you like the Atlanta offense. So Nick, give

467
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 3: it to us man. Who is you know the twenty

468
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 3: twenty three luckiest teams? We just went from the worst

469
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 3: two were the luckiest. I already know one. I'll stop

470
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 3: my head. Let's break it all down real quick.

471
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 4: If you all remember, not last year, but the year before,

472
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 4: who was one of the luckiest teams that was the

473
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins led Minnesota Vikings. Right right now, he's with Atlanta,

474
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 4: so you know, I got you guys mentioned coaching. I

475
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 4: think there could be a little bit to the style

476
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 4: of quarterback play that also can lend itself to being

477
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 4: high or lower, and the luck rankings, we'll talk about that.

478
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 4: But the luckiest team from last year was the Pittsburgh Steelers.

479
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 4: They topped our luck rankings almost weekly last year. Not

480
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,479
Speaker 4: every week, but a lot of the weeks. They were

481
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 4: the luckiest team if we look prior to to week eighteen, right,

482
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 4: because in Week eighteen they played the Baltimore Ravens with

483
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 4: Aul Lamar Jackson. But prior to Week eighteen, the Steelers

484
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 4: had a minus twenty seven point differential. It was even

485
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 4: lower in expected point differential. And the Steelers went overall

486
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 4: last year nine and two in one score games nine

487
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 4: and two. That's yeah, that's crazy. That's completely unsustainable. And

488
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 4: another thing that was unsustainable was the way they scored.

489
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 4: And this is part of why they were so lucky.

490
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 4: When we you know, I talk about all those ninety

491
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 4: nine yard touchdowns, I wasn't exaggerating almost with the Steelers, beak,

492
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 4: they had the fourth highest touchdown rate off of explosive plays.

493
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 4: If you look at all their touchdowns and then take

494
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 4: the ones that were from explosive plays, they had the

495
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 4: fourth highest rate of that. But they had the highest

496
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 4: rate of touchdowns that came from sixty plus yard plays,

497
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 4: number one in the NFL. And that's crazy because as

498
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 4: far as their overall explosive play rate, they were just

499
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 4: a mid pack team. So that's way above their expectation.

500
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 4: That's something you would absolutely expect to regress and completely

501
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 4: unsustainable way of scoring. And I remember through the first

502
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 4: like six or seven weeks of the season, they only

503
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 4: had one like normal touchdown. Everything else was either a

504
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:42,959
Speaker 4: defensive touchdown, a sixty plus yard touchdown, or like a

505
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 4: fifty plus yard field goal. I mean, you can't sustain

506
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 4: winning that way, especially.

507
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 1: Like this was a team who all season, like the

508
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 1: knock was on how bad their offense was, like just dreadful.

509
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 1: So that's stat which I didn't even know, is so

510
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 1: reflective of luck and opportunity that comes in a flash

511
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 1: that you cannot count on. And it's the exact reflection

512
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 1: of a team like the Steelers being lucky.

513
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 4: Yeah exactly. And you know I mentioned they.

514
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 2: Go freaking brilliant.

515
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 4: Oh my god, they got a backup quarterback in the

516
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 4: last week of the rego season. Well other six divisional games,

517
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 4: four of them came against backup quarterbacks. Now, that's not

518
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 4: particularly lucky in terms of the luck rankings because it

519
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 4: adjusts for that, right you're playing a worst quarterback or

520
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 4: something like that, that's already accounted for. But that's just

521
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 4: something else that kind of inflates their record compared to

522
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 4: what it could have been, you know. So it's something

523
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 4: to consider when we're talking about maybe potential future win totals.

524
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 4: So the Pittsburgh Steelers the unluckiest or sorry, the luckiest

525
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,959
Speaker 4: team in the NFL last year. Simon knows where I'm

526
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 4: going to go with the next one.

527
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say, pretty shocking, chat Mike. This

528
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 3: has been my twelfth or thirteenth year as a career

529
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 3: professional better and this is the first time I've ever

530
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 3: read a summer of talking to pros taking the under

531
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 3: on Pittsburgh, Like wait to we get into the later

532
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 3: in the season. Their schedule Chad brutal this upcoming year,

533
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 3: and Nick just touched on it. They had so much

534
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 3: injury luck last year in their division that Joe Burrow

535
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 3: was down. They called Lamar with a back when the

536
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 3: Ravens had a backup, and even if you remember that

537
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 3: game against the Ravens, they're losing the entire game. I

538
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 3: think there was like a turnover or pick or something

539
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 3: like that. All a sudden they're up seventeen to ten

540
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 3: with two minutes ago against the Ravens. It's just things

541
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:29,439
Speaker 3: always bounced their way, and I think the pros are

542
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 3: finally going against them this upcoming season.

543
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:35,640
Speaker 4: Chad uh Nick, who was number two, number two, let's

544
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 4: stay in the state of Pennsylvania and go to Simon

545
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 4: Hunter's Philadelphia Eagles. And I mean, Simon knows they were

546
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 4: definitely a lucky team. Last year started ten and one,

547
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 4: ended eleven and six, losing five to the last year predictalous.

548
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 3: So you guys, you said it for You and Sean

549
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 3: were both saying it for about three four weeks. We're like,

550
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 3: they're gonna go off a cliff here. Eventually they're gonna

551
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 3: off the cliff, and Boyd and me and Chad ride

552
00:28:58,400 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 3: that and going off that cliff. We needed it to

553
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:00,719
Speaker 3: finish a buff five.

554
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, you remember when that Do you remember when they

555
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 4: started going off the cliff. It was when we were

556
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 4: all together. Yeah, when we're all together for.

557
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 1: They went off the cliff that forty nine Ers Eagles game,

558
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 1: and we were all on the Niners. But it was

559
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: the week before they had an overtime game against the Bills,

560
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,959
Speaker 1: and that, to me and Simon and I did our

561
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 1: show that night, that was the beginning of the end.

562
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 1: Like they were getting beat up, they were exhausted. It's

563
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 1: also when like you know, you could see their defensive

564
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: line starting a crater, like that's when we lost our

565
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,719
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year bet with was it Jordan Davis?

566
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 1: Like right right, So.

567
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 2: You're so right. That was the beginning of the end.

568
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 3: That's the greater point with the luck rankings is like

569
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 3: these guys saw through all the bullshit and they were

570
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 3: like telling you for weeks this team isn't as good

571
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 3: as people perceived. The public is overrating this team, and

572
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 3: that again we're trying to hammer home here is that

573
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 3: this the luck ranking is look at it differently than

574
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 3: you and I can ever look at it.

575
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 2: Well. I do want to talk a little bit about Nick.

576
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: I want you to give give your third team before

577
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: I ask my follow up question.

578
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 4: Sure, so the third team, and you know there's kind

579
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 4: of a third and a fourth team, but we'll just

580
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 4: stick with the Indianapolis Colts as the third team. They

581
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 4: were six and three and one score games. They were

582
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 4: two and one in overtime games, so definitely some close

583
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 4: game luck if we exclude week eighteen, because Week eighteen

584
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 4: always has the weird, weird stuff going on with players

585
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 4: being arrested, et cetera, motivations. Through week seventeen, Indianapolis had

586
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 4: a minus fifteen point differential, but they were nine and seven.

587
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 4: You'd expect them to be more like seven and nine,

588
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 4: so they're kind of two wins above expectation and they're

589
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 4: expected point differential. They had a minus fifteen, but they're

590
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: expected was minus forty five, and a lot of that

591
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 4: just comes from it was little things. It was a

592
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 4: lot of little things. They were twenty second in offensive

593
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 4: success rate through week seventeen and only twenty first in

594
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 4: defensive success rate, so bottom half, almost bottom ten, and

595
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 4: both offensive and defensive success rates through week seventeen, yet

596
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 4: they were nine and seven. That's just not a again,

597
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 4: not a sustainable formula for a winning team. They also

598
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 4: had the third most defensive touchdowns, which you know, again

599
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 4: defensive return touchdowns, interceptions for tds, pick sixes, strip sack sixes,

600
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 4: those kinds of things. They're nice and there are teams

601
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 4: that are better at it, but they still were a

602
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 4: little unsustainably high this past year, I think so. I

603
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 4: think that was mostly but honestly, it was just a

604
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 4: lot of little things. They didn't really stand out in

605
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 4: a bunch of categories that were like super lucky. I

606
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 4: think it was just a lot of little luck adding

607
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 4: up for the innate. It is min you magic, that's right,

608
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 4: Garner Michell, That's.

609
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 3: All what it was.

610
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 1: Well, I will say What's interesting to me and sort

611
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 1: of a theme that I've been trying to that this

612
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 1: has been leading us to is coaching. And if you

613
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 1: look at the teams from last year, Nick, I'm glad

614
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 1: you went to the Colts Steelers. Mike Tomlin, traditionally a

615
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: coach who motivates his teams wins in underdog situations, has

616
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 1: never been under five hundred in his career.

617
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 2: Eagles a team last year that.

618
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 1: A lot of folks thought Nick Sirianni was in over

619
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: his head, especially because he was without his two coordinators

620
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 1: offensively and defensively. One of those coordinators, Shane Steichen, went

621
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,959
Speaker 1: to the Colts. And so what I'm wondering is are

622
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: the luck rankings a good representation of coaching factor. Dennis

623
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: Allen is at the bottom. His team outscored opponents by

624
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: sixty six points. The other teams that did that had

625
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 1: significantly more wins and went into the playoffs.

626
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 2: Shane Steichen, his.

627
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 1: Team is underperforming in terms of points allowed and points scored,

628
00:32:54,640 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 1: yet they were overachievers. Do coaches have a play affect

629
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 1: in putting their teams in position to be lucky, lucky

630
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 1: or unlucky? Sean, I don't want to get your take

631
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 1: on that first.

632
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 5: I think that's that's a great point, and that's certainly,

633
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 5: you know, probably an underlying variable that's kind of hard

634
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 5: to quantify. But if a team is constantly overachieving, what

635
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 5: better reason than the coaching staff. So I do take

636
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 5: that into account, and if your call, I was more

637
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 5: comfortable backing the Panthers and Falcons heading into the season

638
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 5: because they replaced their coaching staffs with with people that

639
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 5: I think are there to kind of correct what the

640
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 5: problems are, whereas the Saints they still have Dani Sallen,

641
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 5: So that could still be an underlying factor. So that's

642
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 5: something that Nick and I we talked about throughout the

643
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 5: season a lot. We're aware of it. But again Nick's

644
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 5: done so much back testing on it that if you

645
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 5: were just blindly bet these I don't know if he's

646
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 5: gone over all the numbers yet, you'd be doing really good.

647
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 5: So we, you know, certainly trust in these. But I

648
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 5: think that is one thing that we're we're always kind

649
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 5: of cognizant of, is yes, some of these teams that

650
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 5: are really unlucky could be to do bad coaching and

651
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 5: the lucky team's good coaching. It's just hard to really quantify,

652
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 5: but that is something that we're always aware of.

653
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the

654
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 1: United States?

655
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 3: Game Time?

656
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,360
Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love Game Time for

657
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsor their show. Second, I

658
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 1: actually use game Time all the time. They have amazing

659
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 1: last minute deals including pro and college basketball and football,

660
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 1: speaking of which, I'm actually opening the game Time app

661
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 1: right now from my home here in Connecticut. And guess

662
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 1: what I can get in to see New York Yankees

663
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 1: baseball tomorrow night in the Bronx for less than sixty bucks.

664
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app,

665
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 1: get out have some fun this week.

666
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 4: You deserve it.

667
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your

668
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the game Time

669
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 1: app and use code Favorites for twenty dollars off your

670
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 1: first purchase. Last minute tickets most prices gair run Tee. Well,

671
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: I do want to get to the record for luck

672
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: rankings and luck rankings last year was really revolvatory when

673
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 1: it came to totals over unders. The one more thing

674
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:18,359
Speaker 1: I'll say about coaching is the Packers were minus one

675
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 1: percent in terms of luck, the Rams minus two percent,

676
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 1: the Ravens minus two percent. The Chiefs and the Niners

677
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 1: were both bottom ten. These are all playoff teams that

678
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 1: have some of the best coaches in the NFL that

679
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 1: overcame bad luck to put themselves in positions to go

680
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 1: all the way to the Super Bowl in the case

681
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: of the Chief of the Niners, and then win the

682
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,720
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. That to me says a lot about how

683
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 1: good Matt Lafleur, Sean McVay, John Harbaugh, Andy Reid, and

684
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan are as coaches. Those continue to be safe bets.

685
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 4: To me, Yeah, it's interesting plot. You know, over the

686
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 4: last let's say six years of the luck rankings times

687
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 4: teams end up in the top quarter or top third

688
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 4: or top two or three. We would expect one team

689
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 4: to have made the top three of the luck rankings

690
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,760
Speaker 4: in something like four or five out of the six years,

691
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 4: and there's one team that has done it is the

692
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh Steelers, and of course that's Mike Tomlin. Now is

693
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 4: that coaching I don't know, because that's exactly the number

694
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:31,840
Speaker 4: of teams we'd expect. Is it just randomly Mike Tomlin?

695
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 4: Or is it the one team because it's Mike Tomlin.

696
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:37,760
Speaker 4: And then we do the same thing for unlucky teams,

697
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 4: and we see there's one team that's done it for

698
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:42,840
Speaker 4: out of the six years in terms of being really unlucky.

699
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 4: So the distribution almost fits perfectly where you'd expect these

700
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 4: things by random chance. But it still feels like there

701
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,399
Speaker 4: is a coaching element that comes into play. I also

702
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:57,920
Speaker 4: think there's a little bit of a quarterback play style

703
00:36:58,120 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 4: that comes into play. We look at some of the

704
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 4: unlucky teams Atlanta Falcons, Desmond Ritter, Chicago Bears justin fields,

705
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 4: they're really good with their legs, but they aren't necessarily

706
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 4: as good throwing the ball, and they were really unlucky teams.

707
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 4: Then we look at the really lucky teams a lot

708
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 4: more pocket passing type quarterbacks. We've seen Kirk Cousins in

709
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 4: the past, all the Steelers, different quarterbacks they had. Last year,

710
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield was fourth in Gardner Minshew. You know, obviously

711
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 4: the Eagles could be a little bit of an exceptions.

712
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,800
Speaker 3: As much second half of the year, So I'm agree

713
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 3: with you on that.

714
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,280
Speaker 4: So there could be a little bit of quarterback archetype

715
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 4: in there as well in terms of lucky versus unlucky,

716
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 4: a little bit of coaching, but it's hard to like

717
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 4: tease all that out, so I mostly just ignore which

718
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 4: who the coach is, who the quarterback is, because over

719
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 4: a long enough time period, you know, the distributions have

720
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 4: played out to fall into exactly the ways we'd expect them.

721
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 1: Give us the thresholds, what are the you know, the

722
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 1: percentages at which you cover against the spread based on

723
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 1: the luck percentage.

724
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, so we'll just real quick. So in our luck

725
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 4: rankings rank one to thirty two, and if there's at

726
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 4: least a twenty four place difference in that ordinal luck ranking,

727
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 4: we can say the unlucky team is a team we

728
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,879
Speaker 4: might back to cover the spread, or if the luck

729
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 4: percentage number that we have the difference between those two

730
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 4: teams is at least fifty percent. Again, we can back

731
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 4: the unlucky team here, and last year those sides went

732
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 4: sixty percent against the spread fourteen, nine and two. And

733
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,359
Speaker 4: for totals, we have three different factors we can look

734
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 4: at if a luck total and we haven't really talked

735
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 4: about luck totals, right, We've only talked about backing unlucky

736
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 4: teams or lucky teams. But if teams are scoring more

737
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 4: or allowing more points than expected, we would expect that

738
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 4: to regress, and vice versa. Teams are not scoring enough

739
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 4: or having really lucky defensive stands or things like that,

740
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 4: we'd expect them to regress towards more higher scoring games.

741
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,720
Speaker 4: So we can bet on totals using the luck rankings,

742
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 4: and we have three luck total thresholds. A luck total

743
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 4: above positive ten after week three, a luck total above

744
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:22,760
Speaker 4: positive five after week eleven, or a luck total below

745
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 4: minus five anytime after week three, So three different criteria,

746
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:32,320
Speaker 4: and luck totals last year went thirty five, nineteen and

747
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 4: one in the direction of which we'd expect, which is

748
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 4: sixty four and a half percent. So overall prior to

749
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:43,399
Speaker 4: week eighteen, forty nine, twenty eight and three on our

750
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 4: luck based bets, which just clears sixty three percent. And

751
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 4: every year we've had the Luck Rankings, even just back

752
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 4: testing the luck rankings have had positive years in all

753
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 4: but one and the other one was barely losing year.

754
00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 4: And that's what we would expect. We're not gonna just

755
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 4: blind betting. The luck rankings isn't always going to win.

756
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 4: You're going to have years that where unlucky teams stay

757
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 4: unlucky and lucky teams stay lucky and things like that.

758
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 4: But overall, you know, the Luck Rankings have a very

759
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:16,360
Speaker 4: positive record over sixty percent both on you know, backing

760
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 4: sides in on totals.

761
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a genius stat And the beauty of everything

762
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 1: you've just said is if you go to Action Network

763
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 1: and these things really start to kick into gear once

764
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,760
Speaker 1: we've got about a month of the season under our belt.

765
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 1: So as we get into the season, you want to

766
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 1: be going to Action Network, checking it out in the app,

767
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 1: checking it out in the web, and finding the luck rankings.

768
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,840
Speaker 1: I think we normally post them Wednesday and Thursday.

769
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 4: Right Yeah, we usually have them up Tuesday, right after

770
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 4: Monday Night football is done, and then I have them

771
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:58,800
Speaker 4: ready to go on Tuesday. But honestly, the luck rankings

772
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 4: for betting sides kicks in a gear right away. Week two,

773
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,160
Speaker 4: we're ready to go. Two weeks two, three, and four

774
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 4: have some very high win rates against the spread, and

775
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 4: that also is when the most number of games occur

776
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 4: in terms of the season, and the luck rankings are

777
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 4: a little unlucky last year and that we had fewer

778
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 4: games to bet on in terms of unlucky teams than

779
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 4: we normally would have in the given years. So hopefully

780
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 4: we get a lot more unlucky versus lucky matchups early

781
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 4: in the season this year than we had last year.

782
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 1: How can we use luck rankings to help us with

783
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 1: win totals? Crooner, You talked a little bit about that

784
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 1: earlier in the show.

785
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I usually have my win totals guide sometime

786
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 5: in August, but I definitely leverage these along with some

787
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 5: of the other factors I mentioned, like injury luck, like

788
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 5: strength of schedule, jump or drop in strength of schedule,

789
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,800
Speaker 5: things like that, So I leverage these or coaching changes.

790
00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 5: Like I just said, I'm kind of with you where

791
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 5: I think the coaching changes can certainly helped correct a

792
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 5: lot of these things that the teams were unlucky in.

793
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 5: So I'm factoring all that and when I'm kind of

794
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 5: creating my power ratings, but this is a huge, huge

795
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 5: part of that, and I kind of talk about that

796
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 5: through each team. But again that'll be sometime in August.

797
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,280
Speaker 5: But I set all these up in my season sim

798
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 5: to get you know, divisional odds, things like that, the

799
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 5: last undefeated team that forty nine ers bet I had

800
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 5: last year, fun markets like that. A lot of that

801
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 5: is kind of fueled by this data that we have

802
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 5: from last season.

803
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:34,880
Speaker 3: I'll give Sean a have the more props too. Is

804
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 3: it do you and Chris start up the Fantasy Show

805
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,439
Speaker 3: this next week or has it already begun? Because last

806
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 3: year before our guy Sean here was a number one

807
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 3: ranker and all of Fantasy football number one.

808
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 5: Our guy here, Sean, You're embarrassing, but now me and

809
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 5: that I don't like to be embarrassed, and the Fantasy

810
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 5: Flex is now underway as of Yes, let's go, We're back, baby.

811
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:59,320
Speaker 1: Go listen to Fantasy Flex with Raybond and Kroner.

812
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 2: I believe.

813
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:11,720
Speaker 1: Last year the independent third party ranking service Fantasy Pros

814
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 1: called Sean Kerner, who has now been number one, I

815
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 1: think three or four times.

816
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 3: The goat, the goat, the goat.

817
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:20,799
Speaker 2: What was it, Sean?

818
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, four times? Four times?

819
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 1: Sorry for let's go By the way, Nick Nick would

820
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 1: never correct me. He'd be like, I don't even want

821
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 1: to talk about it.

822
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 3: Shawn's a legend. I mean you go back and listen.

823
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 3: Sean was Oliver Pooka. I mean there's just a bunch

824
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 3: of times where like you've saved my ass.

825
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 4: Especially it was something like the first year ever where

826
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 4: Seawan was top ten in every position as well.

827
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 5: Yeah you count kicker and defense, but I take those

828
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 5: very seriously, so I you know, it was top ten

829
00:43:49,600 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 5: in those as well.

830
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 1: Also, by the way, for everybody who has watched Convince

831
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 1: Me or should watch Convince Me our Sunday morning preview

832
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: show that both Simon and Sewan are on, everybody knows

833
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:05,799
Speaker 1: Sean knows more about referee stats and how they can

834
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 1: impact total. Yes, or anybody in the handicapping business.

835
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 5: Or stat keepers when it comes to like adition out

836
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:14,879
Speaker 5: tackles things like that.

837
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:17,440
Speaker 1: Oh true, Oh my god, I had a mass Crosby

838
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 1: over seven tackles prop last year only big on what

839
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 1: you said, and I think he got on the first half.

840
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:26,399
Speaker 5: That was a fun one. Yeah, I forgot the game.

841
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 5: He tackled the like it wasn't even a sack, he

842
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 5: just tackled the quarterback in the backfill or something that.

843
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 5: Those are always fun. Look for more of those this year.

844
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 5: I'm going to find that model.

845
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 2: Look for it all.

846
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 1: Follow Sean Kerner in the Action Network app. Follow Nick

847
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 1: Giffen in the Action Network app. You can listen to

848
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 1: them on various shows. They're both on Green Dot Daily

849
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:52,399
Speaker 1: Fantasy Flex. Like Simon just mentioned, everywhere all over the app,

850
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 1: Happens That What Happens Live absolutely my favorite show in

851
00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:01,160
Speaker 1: the Action Network universe, starting Doctor Nick Giffim. As a reminder,

852
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:04,279
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865
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866
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Speaker 1: Simon or I will return whether our next episode of

867
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