WEBVTT - Beating The Book: NFL MegaPod Super Bowl LV Props Edition 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:15.200 Check it down Man, Now down Man, Thursday morning, February 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:17.840 it is. It is the Beating the Book podcast megapod 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.919 It is our final football season podcast, super Bowl fifty 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:29.240 five megapod um. Yes, the game side, the total, you know, 0:00:29.640 --> 0:00:33.320 there's that, but really mainly your favorite props as well 0:00:33.400 --> 0:00:35.720 for all of us on the show today for Super 0:00:35.720 --> 0:00:38.080 Bowl fifty five has always joined here live at the 0:00:38.200 --> 0:00:41.240 D are wonderful hosts all season long by Derek Stevens, 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:45.600 Conciliary Vice President Operations at Circuit Sports, Michael Palm, also 0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:50.040 the co host of The Nuts. Very exciting times, very 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:52.239 very exciting. We're finding our way in the wilderness. But 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:54.920 thank you gall a great season again and we got 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:57.200 to be here at Bar Canada. We did we read 0:00:57.280 --> 0:00:59.560 the Great Benefits of I Heart and so I mean 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:02.920 it's win win all around. I mean, what's what's there 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:05.440 not to like? Ye? By the way, can I just 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:08.440 say we have loved coming to the D. It is honestly, 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:12.280 I did a podcast for nine years before this where 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:15.320 I had to edit everything meticulously, So for me personally 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:17.760 being able to do this live is like a dream 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:20.880 come true. So thank you. We love having We're never 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:23.680 leaving but that's okay, Okay, that's all right. You guys 0:01:23.680 --> 0:01:25.680 can go over to circle. We're just gonna be here anyhow. 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:28.440 I'm here more than I'm there. I love this table. Well, 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:31.680 this is like this was built before we ever heard 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:34.160 of COVID, but it's was built for COVID. I mean, 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:37.319 it's the perfectly social distance place. And then the table 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:40.319 is shaped like Captain America's shield or Iron Man shield 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:42.959 or something. Maybe Todd wish it from his mom's cork 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:46.919 addic somewhere in uh Pardner in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Todd wishing 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:49.200 that the subject of Bill Crackenburger and I roasting him 0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:51.320 this morning on a numbers game. How you doing, Dotty? 0:01:52.280 --> 0:01:56.920 I'm doing great. I cannot wait for the big college 0:01:56.920 --> 0:01:59.600 basketball matchups on Sunday. Is there another game as well? 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:01.920 There is there's a football game yet to be played. 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:05.000 I've just heard uh and uh. We've always we said 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:06.960 during the post season, we just want the all stars 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:10.120 from the regular season back. This is my old friend. 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:13.200 He's an all star not only in sports betting, but 0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:16.640 in my heart. Ladies and gentlemen, Dr Bob Stole from Colorado, 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:21.720 how are you doing Bobby, you completely Gil, Well, thank you. 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:26.960 I appreciate that I'm doing well. Actually, um an epic 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:31.080 NFL season. As you know, you get to play out 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:35.120 of variability in that seven is so once in a 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:39.040 once in a lifetime sort of season nine, and you 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:42.320 did not participate in any season long handicapping contest. Right, 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:47.800 I did win my pool among my friends. There you go, 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:49.920 not exactly what I was referring to, but you want 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:54.680 your pool among your friends hauled in. I don't know 0:02:55.200 --> 0:02:59.640 even that anybody paid me eleven United States dollars if 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:01.919 your friend spay you. What was the winning numb ruining 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:06.920 record for Circle millions? Do you remember it was? It 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:11.760 was like, yeah, it came in. No, not seven was 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:16.160 sixty seven. The change sixty seven and change was the percentage. So, Bob, 0:03:16.200 --> 0:03:18.800 basically what we're saying is you would have been vying 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:23.320 for the top spot. Perhaps, yes, perhaps, but yeah you 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:28.160 would have to play five a week, yes, totals, So yeah, 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:35.360 that's true. You got Yeah, but then you know I 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:37.720 had to throw in some some other plays and he 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:41.760 knows how those would have gone. But my other pool 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:44.480 I was pent. I think end of the season, I 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:48.600 had to pick ten games a week. Ouch. Wow, all right, well, 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:50.440 it's just either way, it's an epic season. Maybe you 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:52.560 wouldn't have competed in circle because the format is specific, 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:56.760 but an epic epic season. Um, and your basketball seasons 0:03:56.800 --> 0:04:00.680 have gotten off to an okay star Yeah, okay, the 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:03.320 the opinions have done better than the best bets and 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:06.960 seven and fourteen on close games, you know, decide about 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:09.560 less than three points, so I have a little bit 0:04:09.600 --> 0:04:15.440 of negative luck in there, but overall best bets are pent. 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:18.080 The opinions are are better than that fifty five or 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:21.320 fifty six percent. Overall the models doing okay. The luck 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:22.960 on close games is sort of dragged me down a 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:25.320 little bit, but still some season less I expect to 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:28.359 be profitable by the end of the year. Right, better 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:30.559 on the opinions, you should be more opinionated then, Bob, 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:34.000 I suppose so, since it's been a topsy turvy year 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:37.640 in college I was basketball. But then again I won 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:39.599 more close games and I lost in the NFL, and 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:41.559 the opinions didn't do as well as the best bets. 0:04:42.800 --> 0:04:46.440 That works out? Okay, all right, guys, Because people are 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:49.560 waiting for props, let's talk about just super Bowl fifty five. 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:52.520 The game line itself, the money line, the total to 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.080 see if we have any bets there. Kansas City right 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:58.000 now as we do this Thursday morning, three point favorites 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:02.000 over the Buccaneers extra a juice. There have been some 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:03.640 three and a half that pop up. They have quickly 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:05.520 gone back to three. Don't know where this is going 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:09.400 to be by the end. The total moved a bit yesterday, 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:11.520 about a half a point or even a point in 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:14.039 some spots. Even so fifty five and a half pop 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:17.119 pop up in some spots off shore, and I guess 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:19.640 it was because there was more of a percentage chance 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:22.200 of thunderstorms. And as as we talked about a lot 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:28.200 rain go ahead, well there was and rain, Matt. If 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:30.520 it's full on rain the entire game that worth three 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:33.440 points um and there was I think that the percentage 0:05:33.440 --> 0:05:35.880 went up to in the mid thirties yesterday. Now it's 0:05:35.920 --> 0:05:38.279 back down into the high teams a chance of rain. 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:40.960 So maybe that's why the total pop back up fifty six. 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:46.640 It looks like the probability of rain is becoming less, yes, 0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:50.640 but you know that could change. It's weather and winds. 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:53.440 It's weather. Whether I don't know if if anybody knows 0:05:53.480 --> 0:05:56.800 this not an exact science predicting weather, it matters more 0:05:56.839 --> 0:06:00.200 and there but six seven mile winds expected solf Uh, 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:02.080 it might as well be zero if it's going to 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:05.440 be that. Uh. Did you play anything on the total 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:07.359 or the spread or the money line? Did you do 0:06:07.400 --> 0:06:10.760 anything with the Big three? Bob uh No? I have 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:14.280 a lean with Tampa Bay, but no personal bets, no 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:17.279 recommended bets. Okay um. I will tell you that I 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:20.880 had Chiefs futures. I forgot that I had Chiefs futures. 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:23.880 At the end of the Chiefs Bills game. I quickly 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:26.279 raced the bet Kansas City minus three. I'm like, why 0:06:26.320 --> 0:06:29.000 I do that I have Chiefs futures? Uh. I am 0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:32.239 waiting though, for what I typically do in the Super Bowl. 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:36.760 The public, for whatever reason, bets dogs during the Super 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.320 Bowl differently than they do dogs in the regular season. 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:41.479 Regular season, they take them with the points. I don't 0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:43.599 know if it's because it's the last Hurrah, whatever, but 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:46.400 they tend to play the dog on the money line, 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:49.400 which artificially will mute the favorite on the money line. 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:52.360 For instance, New England against Atlanta some years ago. Three 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:54.800 years ago, you even got New England in the minus 0:06:54.839 --> 0:06:58.120 one forties as a three three and a half point favorite. 0:06:58.120 --> 0:06:59.920 I don't know that Kansas City will go this far down. 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:01.560 Who knows if they'll even go down to minus one 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:03.919 fifty or minus one five. But I'm also looking to 0:07:03.960 --> 0:07:06.160 wait for that. So you did bet the Chiefs did 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:09.240 forgetting you had the futures? Yes, like an idiots, only 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:11.160 futures were Super Bowl, not a f C. I had 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:15.160 a f C two. Yeah, yeah, I did in November, 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:17.720 late November. What what was your number on Super Bowl? 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:21.239 Plus two forty something? I believe, let me check that. Actually, 0:07:21.360 --> 0:07:23.239 I'll tell you exactly what it wants. Got some interesting 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:26.280 end game opportunities with Tampa. Then what did you? Did 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:29.960 you do anything within? I laid three minus one fifteen. Um, 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:32.960 I was minus one nineteen. Yeah, three minus one fifteen 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:35.080 is what I laid. I liked the Chiefs in this matchup, 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:37.840 not a lot. It's not a big bet. I just think, boy, 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:44.320 it's this is a historically good offense. And can you compare? 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:46.840 And I can ask Dr Bob this question. Can you 0:07:46.920 --> 0:07:50.560 compare the Buccaneers defensive this year to the forty Niners 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:53.440 defensive last year? I mean when you think about that 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:55.680 Super Bowl, the forty niners, even they held the Chiefs 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:57.680 to ten points through three quarters, right, And I mean 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:02.120 it's similar. There's our strong defensive line. They don't need 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:06.360 to blitz. The first meeting. They only blitz eighteen percent 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:08.840 of the time in Tampa Bay normally a blitzing team 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:12.200 in the high thirties and and blitz rate. They didn't 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:15.880 blitz them much in the first matchup. I don't think 0:08:16.280 --> 0:08:19.040 they're gonna blitz them much here in Kansas City's offensive 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:22.880 line is worse now without Fisher. They move the right 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:25.160 tackle over to take the left tackle, but the backup 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:29.720 right tackle we've guts playing right tackle now is not good. Um, 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:33.480 So you know there dot to have a good game. UM. 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:35.040 I think they're gonna be able to get pressure on 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:36.760 them just with the four man front, so they don't 0:08:36.760 --> 0:08:39.480 need to blitz a lot. Um. If you want to 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:42.840 talk more about the matchup, I think the biggest difference 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:46.280 between this game in the Week twelve game is that 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:50.200 Carlton Davis had the guard iree kill in the first game. 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:53.520 And Carlton Davis is a very good just not a 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:56.760 fast cornerback. Uh. He has you know, I'm out of 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.080 four or five at the combine. You know, when he 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:01.120 came out of college at which is slower than average 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:04.280 for a NFL defensive you know, for a cornerback, he 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:06.480 had no chance of keeping up with Tyreek Hill in 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:09.200 that first matchup. Remember Jamale Dean was out of that game, 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:13.240 and Jamal Dean has eleaked speed or three in a 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:16.360 very good corner So there's no way. I just can't 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:19.000 imagine they're gonna have Davis on Tyreek killing. I remember 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:21.080 Tyreek Hill had over twound receiving yards in the first 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:23.079 half of that game. Then no one who can keep 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:25.440 up with his speed. Well, now they have Jamal Dean, 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:27.760 who was one of the fastest corners in the league, 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:31.840 in a very good cornerback. He'll be probably taking Tyreek 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:33.679 hille and I'll have you know, over the top help 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:36.079 because they won't have to blitz as much with the 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:38.520 you know, Can City's offensive line problems. But I think 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:41.120 it's a totally different matchup. I don't think he'll's gonna 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:45.320 go nuts. Um uh, half a baby's got you know, 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:49.640 they're good at defending tight ends. Um, So Kelsey might 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:52.240 be held in check a little bit now they have 0:09:52.240 --> 0:09:55.760 a good slot corner. I think that the matchup is 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:58.760 completely different this time. The fact that Hans City only 0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:01.439 won that game by three first time around. I think 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:03.760 the matchups this time around favorite Tampa Bay a little 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:05.839 bit more. Kansas City way up at that game and 0:10:05.840 --> 0:10:07.640 then they ended up winning by three. Yeah, they were 0:10:07.720 --> 0:10:09.360 untill that's part of it. I mean they might have 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:13.840 kept the down had, you know, had they not been 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:16.520 up seventeen to nothing early, So who knows what would 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:19.480 have happened. And um but I do think the matchup 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:22.440 I think that Jamal Dean, that's a huge difference. There's 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:24.400 no way Davis is going to be on the hill again. 0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:26.720 Bowls is not gonna stud enough to do that again. 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:29.480 Um So I think it's a It's something that's not 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:32.040 even time watching Get Up every morning. No one's talked 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:34.400 about it. They're just talking about how Carlton, how how 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:36.760 he got toasted the first time by by He's not 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:39.040 even be on him this time. I can't imagine that 0:10:39.120 --> 0:10:43.760 they wouldn't have Dean on the hill. So completely different matchup. 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:48.280 Excellent point, great points, Yeah, great, great points. Are you 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:50.720 excited about this year's Super Bowl? And I asked us, 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:55.480 till all three of you yes, I mean, you know, 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:58.400 ready for the game to be played, quite frankly excited 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:02.040 by the matchup. Yes, yes, yeah, you excited to watch 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:06.080 it and gilmos. In the past, my excitement came from 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:12.760 hosting a very good Super Bowl party with many people, 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:16.959 uh from the Bay from San Francisco in my little 0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:23.559 apartment and food flowing Margarita's the bartending. In the past, 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:26.400 I spent most my time mixing drinks and didn't really 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:28.559 get to watch the game as intently as I do now, 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:32.440 being a father of two little ones living in the 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:35.600 Denver area with no Super Bowl parties, so I'm looking 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:38.680 forward to watching the game as opposed to posting the game. 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:41.240 Some of us met our girlfriends at Dr Bob super 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:46.480 Bowl parties, that kind of thing, that's true legacy. So 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:49.319 you had Gil showed up, just just sitting up, just 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:53.320 standing ending in one corner. The single ladies were at 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:57.000 the bar near me, and after the party was over, 0:11:57.080 --> 0:11:59.200 I got word that one of them was interested in 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:03.760 meeting Gil. It was not Gil's girlfriend, Yeah it was. 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:07.000 It was Gil's girlfriend's friend, and girls like, oh, not 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:11.120 really interested in her, but who's her? Friend one passing 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:15.000 information on and there was a mutual interest. Uh, this 0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:20.400 is what seven years ago? This was like Seattle. Yeah, yeah, 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:23.080 back when I was young and pretty much that's the 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:26.080 first year my wife made our Super Bowl party. That's right. 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:29.280 I bet a nickel on the Chief's MINDUS three minus 0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:35.960 plus two on November. That's very nice. Thank you very much, Todd. 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:40.120 Do you have anything on this game? Yeah, I I 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:43.040 actually think it's the well. First, I don't really love 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:46.200 doing the props because I feel like, and I feel 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:49.520 this way in all NFL games for that matter, when 0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:52.080 you're doing props, you're kind of taking a side in 0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:54.120 a sense, because you've got to come up with what 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:57.480 you think is going to happen in the game. Yeah, 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:00.520 I would miss much rather play in game where I 0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:03.080 feel like you have the better chance in in anything, 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:06.080 um in NFL, you know, related stuff. So I'm just 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:07.920 probably gonna play this like a regular game. But I 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:10.320 I don't I don't think this is really going to 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:12.679 be necessarily a close game. The last time these two 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:16.280 teams played, it was not a close game. Is completely 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:19.480 not indicative of what the score was. It was seventeen nothing. Early. 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:22.320 I went back and looked because I remember the game 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:25.840 pretty well. The first six out of seven Chiefs drives 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:28.600 ended in either points or a long drive in a fumble. 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:31.240 So it was the same as every other Kansas City game. 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:33.839 When they're trying in the beginning, you know they're going 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:35.720 to just do whatever they want. I don't care who's 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.559 guarding who. I don't care about Tyreek Hill or whoever. 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:40.760 I mean not to say that that's not a good analysis, 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:43.679 Dr Bob. They just have too much weapons. They just 0:13:44.040 --> 0:13:48.600 have too many weapons, So I don't care who's guarding who. 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:50.960 You can go get the All Star team and try 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:53.920 to guard them. You can't guard this team. This team 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:57.560 is impossible. They can score whenever they want. Look at 0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:00.439 the Bills game, it was exactly the same scenario. Remember 0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:01.920 a couple of weeks ago we talked about this. I 0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:03.880 said the Kansas City could have won that game by 0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:05.880 a hundred if they wanted to. And what did they 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:08.560 do in the playoff game? Same thing. I really think 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:11.080 Tampa Bay if you look at their games, they didn't 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:14.000 play well at all in the last nine weeks. They 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:17.720 lost to the Rams, lost to Kansas City, Minnesota. They 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:20.600 beat because the Minnesota guy missed about a hundred field goals. 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.480 The Atlanta game, they were down by seventeen, came back 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:26.560 in one. Okay, they killed Detroit. Everyone does that. Who cares? 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:29.480 The next Atlanta game was closed for a little while. 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:33.280 Tyler Henneck or Taylor Henneck scored twenty three on them. 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:36.040 New Orleans had no business losing the game. The guy 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.840 fumbles at the fifty yard line. Otherwise New Orleans wins 0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:41.000 that game. Green Bay could have won the game. Now, 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:42.960 I'll give him credit. They did a great job on 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:46.480 defense against Green Bay. But Tom Brady's throwing interceptions like 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:49.000 it's going out of style here. You better play a 0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:51.560 perfect damn game if you're gonna beat the Kansas ce Chiefs. 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:53.680 I don't see that having it in him. I don't 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:55.440 like to bet pregame, but if I was gonna bet 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:58.800 pregame Kansas City minus three, I mean, this is ridiculous 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.880 to me. I I just don't see it. I think 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:05.360 Tampa Bay is a slightly above average I mean slightly 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:08.160 above above average team. I don't think there are anything special. 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:10.480 And to compare them to San Francisco of last year, 0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:13.880 San Francisco defense were monsters last year. This Tampa Bay 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:16.880 defense is not Taylor Henneck was moving all over them. 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:19.760 Taylor Henneck or where maybe I'm not even saying his 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:22.880 name right, whatever, what about Taylor Heineke. How do you 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:27.320 do that guy? That guy was going all over this defense. 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:29.680 So give me a break. Andy Reid will figure out 0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:31.640 how to block the damn guys. I know there's the 0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:34.800 left tackles at it. It's a disaster. The world is ending, 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:37.520 the left tackles out. No, Andy Reid will figure it out. 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:44.440 Kansas City chiefs three dr Kansas City's one and one 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:48.000 when Fish is playing in three and three when he's not. Now, 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.680 that's obviously a small circle. But I mean the left 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:54.920 tackles were point eight points and in the analysis done. 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:59.160 Um so yeah, it's not the end of the world. Um, 0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:02.400 But you know you're making the case of well, Tampa 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:04.280 Bay could have lost that game, and they could have 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:07.760 lost that game. Said that every week about Kansas City 0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:10.480 in the second half of the season could have lost 0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:12.720 that every game was closed, They could have lost a lot. Again, 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.400 you can't play that could have lost for Tampa Bay 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:17.880 and not play the same game for Kansas City. But 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:20.680 I'm gonna I'm gonna respectfully disagree with you because the 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:25.800 Kansas City games they were toying with people. They never 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:30.000 were really endangered. That was playing with people. I don't 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.560 think I don't think that's true with people. Well, can 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.440 I chime in Kansas City? Can I? Can I chime 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:38.760 in here? Because Aaron shots Uh, the creator of Football Outsiders, 0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:42.160 was on this podcast right after Week fourteen, in the 0:16:42.160 --> 0:16:44.360 middle of December. We had him on We're in the 0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:48.600 Fourth Square, and I had the audacity to say again, 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:51.240 it was right after the Miami game where Kansas City 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.360 ended up winning, I think by three or four points, 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:55.840 but they outscored Miami thirty to three and the second 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:58.240 and third quarter, and I said, famous lead to Aaron, 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:00.600 you know, it's like they just have a on off switch. 0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:04.080 And Aaron immediately admonished me and said, you're just saying 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:06.160 that because it's Kansas City. If it were any other team, 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:08.760 he wouldn't make that subjective comment. And I acknowledge at 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:11.119 the time that there was some subjectivity to it. But 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:13.280 I had an air it on yesterday on a Numbers 0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:14.960 game on Visa and the very first thing I asked 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.320 and I played that video of us from several weeks ago, 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:21.160 and I said, what do you think now, and he said, 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:24.080 it's funny you bring that up. He actually did some 0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:27.719 analysis on that, and he has been convinced. He's like, 0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:30.480 two things would happen if that were true. One that 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:32.960 they would all of a sudden play really badly when 0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:35.600 they were way ahead, and two they would step it 0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:39.560 up during the postseason. And actually, by his but by 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:42.600 his numbers, he was like, actually, both of those things happened, 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:45.440 and he went back to every Kansas City lead where 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:48.920 they just absolutely just like miserably stopped playing football on 0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:51.240 both sides of the ball, and in the playoffs, by 0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:53.919 his dv Oway, by his by his preparatory stats, he 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:56.119 really feels they have played some of their best games. 0:17:56.359 --> 0:18:00.119 So I mean to Todd's points, First, Tampa Bay, know 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:02.160 what the yards per play was in the first Tampa 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:06.200 Bay Kansas City game, seven point six to seven point five. 0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:08.760 So the stats people will tell you, oh, this was 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:11.560 a close game. It was not a close game. It 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:14.880 wasn't even it was It was the exact Kansas City 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:18.240 replica of every game this year. They get way ahead, 0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:21.600 they start messing around and just running the ball and 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:23.840 not trying anymore the way they would be trying if 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:26.199 it was a close game. So, in my opinion, you 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:29.120 had there's so much garbage and sit in Kansas City 0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:32.960 statistics that it can ruin models. In my opinion, they're 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:35.880 they're the most susceptible to model ruining. And the first 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:38.520 Tampa Bay game was a perfect example of that game. 0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:40.760 There was there was no chance Tom Brady could win 0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:42.920 that game. It was a joke that game. D v 0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:44.720 O A to your to your side of things, Bob. 0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:47.800 Though Aaron has had Tampa Bay rated much higher than 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:51.560 most all year long. Um, so you know he's by 0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:53.240 the way, he's on Tampa Bay plus three and a 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:56.480 half himself in this game. But anyway, I just wanted 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:58.680 to point out because that's an interesting discussion where Aaron, 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:00.959 even Aaron within a there too, he's sort of like 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:03.840 he's like, yo, I might have been wrong about that. So, 0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:08.520 by the way the model that our model here uses, 0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:14.080 it weighs stats is played by play. Matrics only actually 0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:15.359 get from the play that play did it. But it 0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:19.080 weighs the stats in competitive parts of the game more 0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:23.399 than it does in less competitive parts. Are in the 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:26.280 fourth quarter when the game's out of reach, so it's 0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:28.639 it's factored out a lot of that garbage time stuff. 0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:30.480 So Kansas City is the top rated team in my 0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:32.919 model too, and it's part of that is because we 0:19:33.520 --> 0:19:35.640 factors out a lot of those, you know, the garbage 0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:38.679 time stuff. But not every close game was was a 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.680 big lead where they you know, gave up points late. 0:19:41.720 --> 0:19:43.240 A lot of those they came from behind to win, 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:45.400 and they're still the best team in the league. I'm 0:19:45.440 --> 0:19:49.160 not arguing I think Tampa Bay is better than Yeah, 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:52.399 well obviously, I think the oddsmakers are given them credit 0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:55.359 only three point un at all. You know, I think, 0:19:55.400 --> 0:19:57.639 you know, the fair line is probably two point six 0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:00.439 based on the math I'm doing. So it's not like 0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:03.880 it's a ridiculous you know, like I'm jumping all over 0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:05.800 Tampa Bay here. I'm not. I just I just lean 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:07.880 with Tampa Bay. I think the matchups are pretty favorable, 0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:13.480 and the model leans with Tampa Bay. So so calm down, 0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:16.760 you know, Bob one second, Bob can be right and 0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:20.399 I can also be right just because Bob, just because 0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:24.520 Bob in this particular scenario, look, his stats will will 0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:27.320 work out for him. As you can hear by his 0:20:27.400 --> 0:20:31.040 record in this year's NFL, his statistical modeling is obviously 0:20:31.080 --> 0:20:33.720 good enough to be winning. It doesn't mean he's going 0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:36.200 to be right in every scenario. That's you know, That's 0:20:36.200 --> 0:20:38.160 all I'm saying. And I think we can all agree 0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:41.239 on that. What do you say that, Bob, No one 0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:44.240 is you have a you have a you know, at 0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:49.840 chance to be right in this case. That's right. But 0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:52.960