Speaker 1: Check it down Man, Now down Man, Thursday morning, February
Speaker 1: it is. It is the Beating the Book podcast megapod
Speaker 1: It is our final football season podcast, super Bowl fifty
Speaker 1: five megapod um. Yes, the game side, the total, you know,
Speaker 1: there's that, but really mainly your favorite props as well
Speaker 1: for all of us on the show today for Super
Speaker 1: Bowl fifty five has always joined here live at the
Speaker 1: D are wonderful hosts all season long by Derek Stevens,
Speaker 1: Conciliary Vice President Operations at Circuit Sports, Michael Palm, also
Speaker 1: the co host of The Nuts. Very exciting times, very
Speaker 1: very exciting. We're finding our way in the wilderness. But
Speaker 1: thank you gall a great season again and we got
Speaker 1: to be here at Bar Canada. We did we read
Speaker 1: the Great Benefits of I Heart and so I mean
Speaker 1: it's win win all around. I mean, what's what's there
Speaker 1: not to like? Ye? By the way, can I just
Speaker 1: say we have loved coming to the D. It is honestly,
Speaker 1: I did a podcast for nine years before this where
Speaker 1: I had to edit everything meticulously, So for me personally
Speaker 1: being able to do this live is like a dream
Speaker 1: come true. So thank you. We love having We're never
Speaker 1: leaving but that's okay, Okay, that's all right. You guys
Speaker 1: can go over to circle. We're just gonna be here anyhow.
Speaker 1: I'm here more than I'm there. I love this table. Well,
Speaker 1: this is like this was built before we ever heard
Speaker 1: of COVID, but it's was built for COVID. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's the perfectly social distance place. And then the table
Speaker 1: is shaped like Captain America's shield or Iron Man shield
Speaker 1: or something. Maybe Todd wish it from his mom's cork
Speaker 1: addic somewhere in uh Pardner in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Todd wishing
Speaker 1: that the subject of Bill Crackenburger and I roasting him
Speaker 1: this morning on a numbers game. How you doing, Dotty?
Speaker 1: I'm doing great. I cannot wait for the big college
Speaker 1: basketball matchups on Sunday. Is there another game as well?
Speaker 1: There is there's a football game yet to be played.
Speaker 1: I've just heard uh and uh. We've always we said
Speaker 1: during the post season, we just want the all stars
Speaker 1: from the regular season back. This is my old friend.
Speaker 1: He's an all star not only in sports betting, but
Speaker 1: in my heart. Ladies and gentlemen, Dr Bob Stole from Colorado,
Speaker 1: how are you doing Bobby, you completely Gil, Well, thank you.
Speaker 1: I appreciate that I'm doing well. Actually, um an epic
Speaker 1: NFL season. As you know, you get to play out
Speaker 1: of variability in that seven is so once in a
Speaker 1: once in a lifetime sort of season nine, and you
Speaker 1: did not participate in any season long handicapping contest. Right,
Speaker 1: I did win my pool among my friends. There you go,
Speaker 1: not exactly what I was referring to, but you want
Speaker 1: your pool among your friends hauled in. I don't know
Speaker 1: even that anybody paid me eleven United States dollars if
Speaker 1: your friend spay you. What was the winning numb ruining
Speaker 1: record for Circle millions? Do you remember it was? It
Speaker 1: was like, yeah, it came in. No, not seven was
Speaker 1: sixty seven. The change sixty seven and change was the percentage. So, Bob,
Speaker 1: basically what we're saying is you would have been vying
Speaker 1: for the top spot. Perhaps, yes, perhaps, but yeah you
Speaker 1: would have to play five a week, yes, totals, So yeah,
Speaker 1: that's true. You got Yeah, but then you know I
Speaker 1: had to throw in some some other plays and he
Speaker 1: knows how those would have gone. But my other pool
Speaker 1: I was pent. I think end of the season, I
Speaker 1: had to pick ten games a week. Ouch. Wow, all right, well,
Speaker 1: it's just either way, it's an epic season. Maybe you
Speaker 1: wouldn't have competed in circle because the format is specific,
Speaker 1: but an epic epic season. Um, and your basketball seasons
Speaker 1: have gotten off to an okay star Yeah, okay, the
Speaker 1: the opinions have done better than the best bets and
Speaker 1: seven and fourteen on close games, you know, decide about
Speaker 1: less than three points, so I have a little bit
Speaker 1: of negative luck in there, but overall best bets are pent.
Speaker 1: The opinions are are better than that fifty five or
Speaker 1: fifty six percent. Overall the models doing okay. The luck
Speaker 1: on close games is sort of dragged me down a
Speaker 1: little bit, but still some season less I expect to
Speaker 1: be profitable by the end of the year. Right, better
Speaker 1: on the opinions, you should be more opinionated then, Bob,
Speaker 1: I suppose so, since it's been a topsy turvy year
Speaker 1: in college I was basketball. But then again I won
Speaker 1: more close games and I lost in the NFL, and
Speaker 1: the opinions didn't do as well as the best bets.
Speaker 1: That works out? Okay, all right, guys, Because people are
Speaker 1: waiting for props, let's talk about just super Bowl fifty five.
Speaker 1: The game line itself, the money line, the total to
Speaker 1: see if we have any bets there. Kansas City right
Speaker 1: now as we do this Thursday morning, three point favorites
Speaker 1: over the Buccaneers extra a juice. There have been some
Speaker 1: three and a half that pop up. They have quickly
Speaker 1: gone back to three. Don't know where this is going
Speaker 1: to be by the end. The total moved a bit yesterday,
Speaker 1: about a half a point or even a point in
Speaker 1: some spots. Even so fifty five and a half pop
Speaker 1: pop up in some spots off shore, and I guess
Speaker 1: it was because there was more of a percentage chance
Speaker 1: of thunderstorms. And as as we talked about a lot
Speaker 1: rain go ahead, well there was and rain, Matt. If
Speaker 1: it's full on rain the entire game that worth three
Speaker 1: points um and there was I think that the percentage
Speaker 1: went up to in the mid thirties yesterday. Now it's
Speaker 1: back down into the high teams a chance of rain.
Speaker 1: So maybe that's why the total pop back up fifty six.
Speaker 1: It looks like the probability of rain is becoming less, yes,
Speaker 1: but you know that could change. It's weather and winds.
Speaker 1: It's weather. Whether I don't know if if anybody knows
Speaker 1: this not an exact science predicting weather, it matters more
Speaker 1: and there but six seven mile winds expected solf Uh,
Speaker 1: it might as well be zero if it's going to
Speaker 1: be that. Uh. Did you play anything on the total
Speaker 1: or the spread or the money line? Did you do
Speaker 1: anything with the Big three? Bob uh No? I have
Speaker 1: a lean with Tampa Bay, but no personal bets, no
Speaker 1: recommended bets. Okay um. I will tell you that I
Speaker 1: had Chiefs futures. I forgot that I had Chiefs futures.
Speaker 1: At the end of the Chiefs Bills game. I quickly
Speaker 1: raced the bet Kansas City minus three. I'm like, why
Speaker 1: I do that I have Chiefs futures? Uh. I am
Speaker 1: waiting though, for what I typically do in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: The public, for whatever reason, bets dogs during the Super
Speaker 1: Bowl differently than they do dogs in the regular season.
Speaker 1: Regular season, they take them with the points. I don't
Speaker 1: know if it's because it's the last Hurrah, whatever, but
Speaker 1: they tend to play the dog on the money line,
Speaker 1: which artificially will mute the favorite on the money line.
Speaker 1: For instance, New England against Atlanta some years ago. Three
Speaker 1: years ago, you even got New England in the minus
Speaker 1: one forties as a three three and a half point favorite.
Speaker 1: I don't know that Kansas City will go this far down.
Speaker 1: Who knows if they'll even go down to minus one
Speaker 1: fifty or minus one five. But I'm also looking to
Speaker 1: wait for that. So you did bet the Chiefs did
Speaker 1: forgetting you had the futures? Yes, like an idiots, only
Speaker 1: futures were Super Bowl, not a f C. I had
Speaker 1: a f C two. Yeah, yeah, I did in November,
Speaker 1: late November. What what was your number on Super Bowl?
Speaker 1: Plus two forty something? I believe, let me check that. Actually,
Speaker 1: I'll tell you exactly what it wants. Got some interesting
Speaker 1: end game opportunities with Tampa. Then what did you? Did
Speaker 1: you do anything within? I laid three minus one fifteen. Um,
Speaker 1: I was minus one nineteen. Yeah, three minus one fifteen
Speaker 1: is what I laid. I liked the Chiefs in this matchup,
Speaker 1: not a lot. It's not a big bet. I just think, boy,
Speaker 1: it's this is a historically good offense. And can you compare?
Speaker 1: And I can ask Dr Bob this question. Can you
Speaker 1: compare the Buccaneers defensive this year to the forty Niners
Speaker 1: defensive last year? I mean when you think about that
Speaker 1: Super Bowl, the forty niners, even they held the Chiefs
Speaker 1: to ten points through three quarters, right, And I mean
Speaker 1: it's similar. There's our strong defensive line. They don't need
Speaker 1: to blitz. The first meeting. They only blitz eighteen percent
Speaker 1: of the time in Tampa Bay normally a blitzing team
Speaker 1: in the high thirties and and blitz rate. They didn't
Speaker 1: blitz them much in the first matchup. I don't think
Speaker 1: they're gonna blitz them much here in Kansas City's offensive
Speaker 1: line is worse now without Fisher. They move the right
Speaker 1: tackle over to take the left tackle, but the backup
Speaker 1: right tackle we've guts playing right tackle now is not good. Um,
Speaker 1: So you know there dot to have a good game. UM.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be able to get pressure on
Speaker 1: them just with the four man front, so they don't
Speaker 1: need to blitz a lot. Um. If you want to
Speaker 1: talk more about the matchup, I think the biggest difference
Speaker 1: between this game in the Week twelve game is that
Speaker 1: Carlton Davis had the guard iree kill in the first game.
Speaker 1: And Carlton Davis is a very good just not a
Speaker 1: fast cornerback. Uh. He has you know, I'm out of
Speaker 1: four or five at the combine. You know, when he
Speaker 1: came out of college at which is slower than average
Speaker 1: for a NFL defensive you know, for a cornerback, he
Speaker 1: had no chance of keeping up with Tyreek Hill in
Speaker 1: that first matchup. Remember Jamale Dean was out of that game,
Speaker 1: and Jamal Dean has eleaked speed or three in a
Speaker 1: very good corner So there's no way. I just can't
Speaker 1: imagine they're gonna have Davis on Tyreek killing. I remember
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill had over twound receiving yards in the first
Speaker 1: half of that game. Then no one who can keep
Speaker 1: up with his speed. Well, now they have Jamal Dean,
Speaker 1: who was one of the fastest corners in the league,
Speaker 1: in a very good cornerback. He'll be probably taking Tyreek
Speaker 1: hille and I'll have you know, over the top help
Speaker 1: because they won't have to blitz as much with the
Speaker 1: you know, Can City's offensive line problems. But I think
Speaker 1: it's a totally different matchup. I don't think he'll's gonna
Speaker 1: go nuts. Um uh, half a baby's got you know,
Speaker 1: they're good at defending tight ends. Um, So Kelsey might
Speaker 1: be held in check a little bit now they have
Speaker 1: a good slot corner. I think that the matchup is
Speaker 1: completely different this time. The fact that Hans City only
Speaker 1: won that game by three first time around. I think
Speaker 1: the matchups this time around favorite Tampa Bay a little
Speaker 1: bit more. Kansas City way up at that game and
Speaker 1: then they ended up winning by three. Yeah, they were
Speaker 1: untill that's part of it. I mean they might have
Speaker 1: kept the down had, you know, had they not been
Speaker 1: up seventeen to nothing early, So who knows what would
Speaker 1: have happened. And um but I do think the matchup
Speaker 1: I think that Jamal Dean, that's a huge difference. There's
Speaker 1: no way Davis is going to be on the hill again.
Speaker 1: Bowls is not gonna stud enough to do that again.
Speaker 1: Um So I think it's a It's something that's not
Speaker 1: even time watching Get Up every morning. No one's talked
Speaker 1: about it. They're just talking about how Carlton, how how
Speaker 1: he got toasted the first time by by He's not
Speaker 1: even be on him this time. I can't imagine that
Speaker 1: they wouldn't have Dean on the hill. So completely different matchup.
Speaker 1: Excellent point, great points, Yeah, great, great points. Are you
Speaker 1: excited about this year's Super Bowl? And I asked us,
Speaker 1: till all three of you yes, I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: ready for the game to be played, quite frankly excited
Speaker 1: by the matchup. Yes, yes, yeah, you excited to watch
Speaker 1: it and gilmos. In the past, my excitement came from
Speaker 1: hosting a very good Super Bowl party with many people,
Speaker 1: uh from the Bay from San Francisco in my little
Speaker 1: apartment and food flowing Margarita's the bartending. In the past,
Speaker 1: I spent most my time mixing drinks and didn't really
Speaker 1: get to watch the game as intently as I do now,
Speaker 1: being a father of two little ones living in the
Speaker 1: Denver area with no Super Bowl parties, so I'm looking
Speaker 1: forward to watching the game as opposed to posting the game.
Speaker 1: Some of us met our girlfriends at Dr Bob super
Speaker 1: Bowl parties, that kind of thing, that's true legacy. So
Speaker 1: you had Gil showed up, just just sitting up, just
Speaker 1: standing ending in one corner. The single ladies were at
Speaker 1: the bar near me, and after the party was over,
Speaker 1: I got word that one of them was interested in
Speaker 1: meeting Gil. It was not Gil's girlfriend, Yeah it was.
Speaker 1: It was Gil's girlfriend's friend, and girls like, oh, not
Speaker 1: really interested in her, but who's her? Friend one passing
Speaker 1: information on and there was a mutual interest. Uh, this
Speaker 1: is what seven years ago? This was like Seattle. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: back when I was young and pretty much that's the
Speaker 1: first year my wife made our Super Bowl party. That's right.
Speaker 1: I bet a nickel on the Chief's MINDUS three minus
Speaker 1: plus two on November. That's very nice. Thank you very much, Todd.
Speaker 1: Do you have anything on this game? Yeah, I I
Speaker 1: actually think it's the well. First, I don't really love
Speaker 1: doing the props because I feel like, and I feel
Speaker 1: this way in all NFL games for that matter, when
Speaker 1: you're doing props, you're kind of taking a side in
Speaker 1: a sense, because you've got to come up with what
Speaker 1: you think is going to happen in the game. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I would miss much rather play in game where I
Speaker 1: feel like you have the better chance in in anything,
Speaker 1: um in NFL, you know, related stuff. So I'm just
Speaker 1: probably gonna play this like a regular game. But I
Speaker 1: I don't I don't think this is really going to
Speaker 1: be necessarily a close game. The last time these two
Speaker 1: teams played, it was not a close game. Is completely
Speaker 1: not indicative of what the score was. It was seventeen nothing. Early.
Speaker 1: I went back and looked because I remember the game
Speaker 1: pretty well. The first six out of seven Chiefs drives
Speaker 1: ended in either points or a long drive in a fumble.
Speaker 1: So it was the same as every other Kansas City game.
Speaker 1: When they're trying in the beginning, you know they're going
Speaker 1: to just do whatever they want. I don't care who's
Speaker 1: guarding who. I don't care about Tyreek Hill or whoever.
Speaker 1: I mean not to say that that's not a good analysis,
Speaker 1: Dr Bob. They just have too much weapons. They just
Speaker 1: have too many weapons, So I don't care who's guarding who.
Speaker 1: You can go get the All Star team and try
Speaker 1: to guard them. You can't guard this team. This team
Speaker 1: is impossible. They can score whenever they want. Look at
Speaker 1: the Bills game, it was exactly the same scenario. Remember
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago we talked about this. I
Speaker 1: said the Kansas City could have won that game by
Speaker 1: a hundred if they wanted to. And what did they
Speaker 1: do in the playoff game? Same thing. I really think
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay if you look at their games, they didn't
Speaker 1: play well at all in the last nine weeks. They
Speaker 1: lost to the Rams, lost to Kansas City, Minnesota. They
Speaker 1: beat because the Minnesota guy missed about a hundred field goals.
Speaker 1: The Atlanta game, they were down by seventeen, came back
Speaker 1: in one. Okay, they killed Detroit. Everyone does that. Who cares?
Speaker 1: The next Atlanta game was closed for a little while.
Speaker 1: Tyler Henneck or Taylor Henneck scored twenty three on them.
Speaker 1: New Orleans had no business losing the game. The guy
Speaker 1: fumbles at the fifty yard line. Otherwise New Orleans wins
Speaker 1: that game. Green Bay could have won the game. Now,
Speaker 1: I'll give him credit. They did a great job on
Speaker 1: defense against Green Bay. But Tom Brady's throwing interceptions like
Speaker 1: it's going out of style here. You better play a
Speaker 1: perfect damn game if you're gonna beat the Kansas ce Chiefs.
Speaker 1: I don't see that having it in him. I don't
Speaker 1: like to bet pregame, but if I was gonna bet
Speaker 1: pregame Kansas City minus three, I mean, this is ridiculous
Speaker 1: to me. I I just don't see it. I think
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is a slightly above average I mean slightly
Speaker 1: above above average team. I don't think there are anything special.
Speaker 1: And to compare them to San Francisco of last year,
Speaker 1: San Francisco defense were monsters last year. This Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: defense is not Taylor Henneck was moving all over them.
Speaker 1: Taylor Henneck or where maybe I'm not even saying his
Speaker 1: name right, whatever, what about Taylor Heineke. How do you
Speaker 1: do that guy? That guy was going all over this defense.
Speaker 1: So give me a break. Andy Reid will figure out
Speaker 1: how to block the damn guys. I know there's the
Speaker 1: left tackles at it. It's a disaster. The world is ending,
Speaker 1: the left tackles out. No, Andy Reid will figure it out.
Speaker 1: Kansas City chiefs three dr Kansas City's one and one
Speaker 1: when Fish is playing in three and three when he's not. Now,
Speaker 1: that's obviously a small circle. But I mean the left
Speaker 1: tackles were point eight points and in the analysis done.
Speaker 1: Um so yeah, it's not the end of the world. Um,
Speaker 1: But you know you're making the case of well, Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay could have lost that game, and they could have
Speaker 1: lost that game. Said that every week about Kansas City
Speaker 1: in the second half of the season could have lost
Speaker 1: that every game was closed, They could have lost a lot. Again,
Speaker 1: you can't play that could have lost for Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: and not play the same game for Kansas City. But
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna respectfully disagree with you because the
Speaker 1: Kansas City games they were toying with people. They never
Speaker 1: were really endangered. That was playing with people. I don't
Speaker 1: think I don't think that's true with people. Well, can
Speaker 1: I chime in Kansas City? Can I? Can I chime
Speaker 1: in here? Because Aaron shots Uh, the creator of Football Outsiders,
Speaker 1: was on this podcast right after Week fourteen, in the
Speaker 1: middle of December. We had him on We're in the
Speaker 1: Fourth Square, and I had the audacity to say again,
Speaker 1: it was right after the Miami game where Kansas City
Speaker 1: ended up winning, I think by three or four points,
Speaker 1: but they outscored Miami thirty to three and the second
Speaker 1: and third quarter, and I said, famous lead to Aaron,
Speaker 1: you know, it's like they just have a on off switch.
Speaker 1: And Aaron immediately admonished me and said, you're just saying
Speaker 1: that because it's Kansas City. If it were any other team,
Speaker 1: he wouldn't make that subjective comment. And I acknowledge at
Speaker 1: the time that there was some subjectivity to it. But
Speaker 1: I had an air it on yesterday on a Numbers
Speaker 1: game on Visa and the very first thing I asked
Speaker 1: and I played that video of us from several weeks ago,
Speaker 1: and I said, what do you think now, and he said,
Speaker 1: it's funny you bring that up. He actually did some
Speaker 1: analysis on that, and he has been convinced. He's like,
Speaker 1: two things would happen if that were true. One that
Speaker 1: they would all of a sudden play really badly when
Speaker 1: they were way ahead, and two they would step it
Speaker 1: up during the postseason. And actually, by his but by
Speaker 1: his numbers, he was like, actually, both of those things happened,
Speaker 1: and he went back to every Kansas City lead where
Speaker 1: they just absolutely just like miserably stopped playing football on
Speaker 1: both sides of the ball, and in the playoffs, by
Speaker 1: his dv Oway, by his by his preparatory stats, he
Speaker 1: really feels they have played some of their best games.
Speaker 1: So I mean to Todd's points, First, Tampa Bay, know
Speaker 1: what the yards per play was in the first Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay Kansas City game, seven point six to seven point five.
Speaker 1: So the stats people will tell you, oh, this was
Speaker 1: a close game. It was not a close game. It
Speaker 1: wasn't even it was It was the exact Kansas City
Speaker 1: replica of every game this year. They get way ahead,
Speaker 1: they start messing around and just running the ball and
Speaker 1: not trying anymore the way they would be trying if
Speaker 1: it was a close game. So, in my opinion, you
Speaker 1: had there's so much garbage and sit in Kansas City
Speaker 1: statistics that it can ruin models. In my opinion, they're
Speaker 1: they're the most susceptible to model ruining. And the first
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay game was a perfect example of that game.
Speaker 1: There was there was no chance Tom Brady could win
Speaker 1: that game. It was a joke that game. D v
Speaker 1: O A to your to your side of things, Bob.
Speaker 1: Though Aaron has had Tampa Bay rated much higher than
Speaker 1: most all year long. Um, so you know he's by
Speaker 1: the way, he's on Tampa Bay plus three and a
Speaker 1: half himself in this game. But anyway, I just wanted
Speaker 1: to point out because that's an interesting discussion where Aaron,
Speaker 1: even Aaron within a there too, he's sort of like
Speaker 1: he's like, yo, I might have been wrong about that. So,
Speaker 1: by the way the model that our model here uses,
Speaker 1: it weighs stats is played by play. Matrics only actually
Speaker 1: get from the play that play did it. But it
Speaker 1: weighs the stats in competitive parts of the game more
Speaker 1: than it does in less competitive parts. Are in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter when the game's out of reach, so it's
Speaker 1: it's factored out a lot of that garbage time stuff.
Speaker 1: So Kansas City is the top rated team in my
Speaker 1: model too, and it's part of that is because we
Speaker 1: factors out a lot of those, you know, the garbage
Speaker 1: time stuff. But not every close game was was a
Speaker 1: big lead where they you know, gave up points late.
Speaker 1: A lot of those they came from behind to win,
Speaker 1: and they're still the best team in the league. I'm
Speaker 1: not arguing I think Tampa Bay is better than Yeah,
Speaker 1: well obviously, I think the oddsmakers are given them credit
Speaker 1: only three point un at all. You know, I think,
Speaker 1: you know, the fair line is probably two point six
Speaker 1: based on the math I'm doing. So it's not like
Speaker 1: it's a ridiculous you know, like I'm jumping all over
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay here. I'm not. I just I just lean
Speaker 1: with Tampa Bay. I think the matchups are pretty favorable,
Speaker 1: and the model leans with Tampa Bay. So so calm down,
Speaker 1: you know, Bob one second, Bob can be right and
Speaker 1: I can also be right just because Bob, just because
Speaker 1: Bob in this particular scenario, look, his stats will will
Speaker 1: work out for him. As you can hear by his
Speaker 1: record in this year's NFL, his statistical modeling is obviously
Speaker 1: good enough to be winning. It doesn't mean he's going
Speaker 1: to be right in every scenario. That's you know, That's
Speaker 1: all I'm saying. And I think we can all agree
Speaker 1: on that. What do you say that, Bob, No one
Speaker 1: is you have a you have a you know, at
Speaker 1: chance to be right in this case. That's right. But
Speaker 1: I will take I will take exception with the fact
Speaker 1: that I do believe Kansas City. While the game's looked
Speaker 1: close in a lot of scenarios, you can go through
Speaker 1: all the games and you can see that there was
Speaker 1: something going on with the exception of the Atlanta Falcons game,
Speaker 1: I'll give you that one. But New Orleans was thirty
Speaker 1: twenty nine. That was not a close game. The Miami
Speaker 1: game was thirty three, twenty seven, not a close game.
Speaker 1: Denver game before that sixteen, not a close game. Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay game we already talked about, not a close game.
Speaker 1: Vegas thirty five thirty one. Vegas was actually giving them
Speaker 1: a little bit of trouble that game. Uh you know,
Speaker 1: I mean, you can go back through all these games.
Speaker 1: The Buffalo first game, people say, oh, it's only seventeen. No,
Speaker 1: it wasn't. They could have won that game by a
Speaker 1: thousand if they wanted so. To me, I think of
Speaker 1: all the teams, you know, I just think that Kansas
Speaker 1: City is gonna be the hardest to clean up statistical
Speaker 1: models than any than almost any team. And I'm sure
Speaker 1: that guys know how to do statistical modeling, like Dr
Speaker 1: Bob know how to do it, but there's probably a
Speaker 1: lot of people that have models that do not know
Speaker 1: how to clean up the dirtiness. You know, like to
Speaker 1: remember the Cleveland Pittsburgh playoff game where Ben Roethlisberger throws
Speaker 1: for five and fifty yards and everyone probably he has
Speaker 1: some semblance of that in their model. Well guess what
Speaker 1: that all that can be thrown away in the garbage.
Speaker 1: Because Cleveland was letting them do whatever they wanted with
Speaker 1: the gigantic lead, you could throw out all of it.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, had the game been ten seven, game
Speaker 1: would have been a completely different game. So, you know, no,
Speaker 1: let me just say go ahead. You know, I understand,
Speaker 1: you know, Kansas City has a switch. I believe that.
Speaker 1: I believe they played better when they need to play better.
Speaker 1: You know who also plays better when he needs to
Speaker 1: play better. Tom Brady from minus two Underdog in his
Speaker 1: career as a as a as a quarterback room so
Speaker 1: competitive games minus two to Underdog's twenty five straight up
Speaker 1: fifty and twenty against his breath eight and three in
Speaker 1: the playoffs two and I was a dog pick in
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I mean, he can turn it on
Speaker 1: when he needs to to. I mean, you're making a
Speaker 1: case from malls. Rightfully, did you think they were did
Speaker 1: you think they should have won the Saints game? They
Speaker 1: won the Saints game. There's a lot of games that
Speaker 1: should not have won. Okay, but what I'm saying is
Speaker 1: if you played that game like a hundred times, would
Speaker 1: you say that they were on the more fortunate side?
Speaker 1: They were probably around thirty eight times the wins. Okay,
Speaker 1: they're in the Super Bowl now, Okay, I mean I'm
Speaker 1: not you can't go. Obviously, Kansas City is a better
Speaker 1: team than Tampa Bay, and Tampa Bay's season could have
Speaker 1: easily gone a different way had they not won a
Speaker 1: couple of close games. But they're here, and that's the
Speaker 1: metrics I'm using say it's gonna be you know, due
Speaker 1: to three point game. I mean Obviously there's a lot
Speaker 1: of variants in that, but I think the line is
Speaker 1: shading a little bit higher than it should. I think
Speaker 1: three solid three should be the number I think. I
Speaker 1: think it's an awesome discussion. Mikey and I are enjoying
Speaker 1: listen to It's for Real because it's todd I really
Speaker 1: I get back to what you what you said there.
Speaker 1: We this is a very difficult team when you look
Speaker 1: at them to more more than perhaps any other team.
Speaker 1: I don't know, we'll see maybe historically we'll look back
Speaker 1: on and think this, this version of the Kansas City
Speaker 1: Chiefs might be the dirtiest statistical team ever. To put
Speaker 1: it that way, it's very difficult. And again I love
Speaker 1: that Aaron was able to sort of go back on
Speaker 1: his because he was so he had such strong conviction
Speaker 1: on you can't say that everybody's saying that about the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: And and when he went back and looked at he's like, wow, no,
Speaker 1: off the charts change of behavior for this team in
Speaker 1: an anomalous kind of way, not nor you know, not
Speaker 1: the normal letdown kind of team. So anyway, it's an
Speaker 1: interesting conversation, and one game is not going to decide
Speaker 1: the answer of it. Um, but it's a fascinating discussion.
Speaker 1: I think, um, let's do some props. Otherwise we'll be
Speaker 1: here all day on this. Bob you get, you get honors,
Speaker 1: your honor. Uh you kind last year I was on here,
Speaker 1: I was on your show. Maybe hit them all, hit
Speaker 1: them all. I'm your good luck boy, I'm your good luck.
Speaker 1: I'll props and twenty two and five and I'm rolling
Speaker 1: with four of them. Um, I'm going with Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 1: over and acted twenty one and a half is kind
Speaker 1: of a consensus. It might have moved. I released it
Speaker 1: two clients about an hour and a half ago, hour ago. Um,
Speaker 1: here's the thinking on the Patrick Mahomes over twenty one
Speaker 1: and a half rushing yards up to twenty five and
Speaker 1: a half. So anything and a half or less I
Speaker 1: would I would bet on the over on my homes
Speaker 1: rushing yards. Um. You might remember last year he had
Speaker 1: forty something and then he took three kneel down for
Speaker 1: fifty yards to go under what he needed to. And
Speaker 1: this year, I think he's gonna need to run more.
Speaker 1: I mean I think that Tampa Bay is gonna be
Speaker 1: able to put pressure on him. Uh, they're gonna I
Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna blitz as much. They're gonna have
Speaker 1: more men and coverage, so his receivers are likely to
Speaker 1: be covered a little bit more than normal. And with
Speaker 1: him running around looking for guys with all the defensive
Speaker 1: backs back there, I think he's gonna take off and
Speaker 1: run more than he normally does. Um, so I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go over mahomes rushing yards is my first prop o.
Speaker 1: I'm with Bob on that one. I like. I like
Speaker 1: that one a lot with Bob half census, and I'd
Speaker 1: say the twenty five and a half is still good.
Speaker 1: That Todd is like, I think there's gonna be I
Speaker 1: think there's gonna be a lot of a lot of
Speaker 1: if there's more pressure on my homes, which they're they're
Speaker 1: very well, maybe I I totally agree with that. You
Speaker 1: I could see my homes getting a bunch of like
Speaker 1: nine yard scrambles where he's like in trouble and he
Speaker 1: somehow gets out of it like he always does and
Speaker 1: gets nine yards for the first down. So I like
Speaker 1: that one a lot. Todd is the Darren Ravel of
Speaker 1: this podcast. He's like confirmed, I like that, but please don't,
Speaker 1: please don't compare me with Darren Ravell. Please, you know
Speaker 1: just you can. You can make a lot of jokes,
Speaker 1: but that that is not called for. Have I told
Speaker 1: my Darren Ravell story you're on the show? I think
Speaker 1: tell it again nine years ago, ten years ago, when
Speaker 1: I was a little pitcher and nobody knew who I was.
Speaker 1: They still know who I am, but then they really
Speaker 1: didn't know who I was. I there's something to happen
Speaker 1: with a running back, and on Twitter, not even clever.
Speaker 1: I wrote, Mama, don't let your babies grow up to
Speaker 1: be running backs. Not funny, not clever, just a stupid
Speaker 1: throwaway line. Ten minutes later on Twitter, Darren Orbell Mama,
Speaker 1: don't let your babies grow up to be running back.
Speaker 1: He's a predecessor to Ben Fox. About the people that
Speaker 1: tweeted at Ben Fox, there is aet tweet button likes
Speaker 1: to be on one of the pregame shows. Norm something
Speaker 1: Hitch his sur who was the guy used to be
Speaker 1: on one of the pregame shows years ago, like in
Speaker 1: the nineties. I us to post a newsletter and I'd
Speaker 1: have all these great stats and and things, and then
Speaker 1: he just would quote them verbatim. I had clients, like, even, like,
Speaker 1: this guy's stealing your stuff and I didn't get up
Speaker 1: that early to watch some game shown. Was it pe Dockstown? No,
Speaker 1: that wasn't it was norm something norm Yeah nor h
Speaker 1: I t z G. Yes, Yeah, you were just I mean,
Speaker 1: like blatant stealing of the stuff I'd have in my
Speaker 1: newsletter stats that I have published in my newsletter. People
Speaker 1: and me and Gil came up being Gil had a
Speaker 1: whole segment on me, and Gil had a whole segment
Speaker 1: on a numbers game. And then uh, and then some
Speaker 1: guy I know who goes on fall and show, you know,
Speaker 1: basically renamed it no hyper Bowl and did the same
Speaker 1: exact segment. It's it's very very disconcerted. The gentile version. Yes,
Speaker 1: what is it? Sincereus form of flattery? Yeah, imitation is
Speaker 1: the sincereous form of flattery. That's what I always say.
Speaker 1: I happen to like that guy, and I'd buy him
Speaker 1: popcorn all the time. So it's not the end of
Speaker 1: the world. But you know, I think I was doing
Speaker 1: it subconsciously. Maybe, Um, Mike, mikey. Before we get to
Speaker 1: your favorite prop here, this is from my buddy Jason
Speaker 1: wein Garden, who is always on a numbers game with
Speaker 1: me from under a cloud of smoke in southern California.
Speaker 1: He reminded me of that. He told me about this yesterday.
Speaker 1: I forgot pretty or seven. Jason con just reminded me,
Speaker 1: but he actually texts. He actually tweeted this out. He said, yesterday,
Speaker 1: I wanted to bet Vita Vella to score in any
Speaker 1: time touchdown and nobody had it listed. So I asked
Speaker 1: Circus Sports to make a line within fifteen to twenty minutes.
Speaker 1: It was posted for betting. A couple other books responded
Speaker 1: and said they couldn't do it, most ignored the request.
Speaker 1: This is to say that Circus Sports is the gold
Speaker 1: standard of legal US sports books, and other books could
Speaker 1: learn a thing or three from them. That's very nice.
Speaker 1: How about that we do that. We do that, We
Speaker 1: take suggestions and then they make it. They move the market. Obviously,
Speaker 1: if he post him right, that that affects everybody else
Speaker 1: that you have listed to score the first touchdown. So
Speaker 1: it's a compliments to Metcalf and Chris Bennett just coming
Speaker 1: up with these squares and coming up with four hundred
Speaker 1: different markets on these different numbers. Is we've written more
Speaker 1: now already this year than we did last year on
Speaker 1: the squares. Right on the squares the research Mike like,
Speaker 1: which numbers come out the most uh common? I assume
Speaker 1: researched it, and then and then you have to factor
Speaker 1: in who the two teams are, right and with the
Speaker 1: toe it is as a factor in that. And but
Speaker 1: people bet the odd numbers because they want a big payout.
Speaker 1: Last year was all common numbers seven zero, seven three.
Speaker 1: And we when we when we held like seventy of
Speaker 1: the pool because people are betting the five, five and
Speaker 1: the eight too, and all the four yeah, because they
Speaker 1: want five thousand to one thousand and one all that stuff.
Speaker 1: Favorite props are I like Kansas City to score over
Speaker 1: one and a half touchdowns in the first half. I
Speaker 1: laid one your reasoning, Well, look at there's gonna be
Speaker 1: six probably seven possessions in the first half. Is Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay gonna stop my homes five times from scoring? To
Speaker 1: I just I'm with Todd about how good this offense is.
Speaker 1: I think they just score when they want to score.
Speaker 1: I mean, and not that not that they don't so,
Speaker 1: but they're just so good. They don't waste any places.
Speaker 1: They don't run into the middle of the line, you
Speaker 1: know what I mean. They just they're always getting there
Speaker 1: the ball to guys in space where they can make plays.
Speaker 1: And I just think it's real tough unless this this
Speaker 1: line move and missing the left tackle and then they
Speaker 1: can get a lot of pressure with four guys and
Speaker 1: really disrupt him. It's hard. Either either they drop a
Speaker 1: ball or they get sacked on third down. Those are
Speaker 1: the only ways they don't score on these drives. And
Speaker 1: in the first half of games, Read is more aggressive
Speaker 1: on the fourth and short when he has the lead
Speaker 1: and he starts kicking field goals in the second half,
Speaker 1: but in early in games he's trying to score touchdowns
Speaker 1: and build the lead. So I thought that was good
Speaker 1: point there. In the first game, the first half, they
Speaker 1: threw the ball of their plays yea. In the first
Speaker 1: half against Tampa Bay the first time. I mean, and
Speaker 1: they're not gonna try to run. Tampuy has got a
Speaker 1: good run defense, one of the best. But I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna bother Dr Bob bringing it. Yeah, that's why he's
Speaker 1: on the super Bowl edition. That's why he's on the
Speaker 1: super Bowl Edition. First half of the first meeting, My
Speaker 1: this is all I memorize this stuff for you. You
Speaker 1: know that's right. But are you wearing contacts though? Bob
Speaker 1: tell the truth. I just I just want to look
Speaker 1: pretty and you do and you do. Um my wife
Speaker 1: shaved too. I have Tom Brady over a half a
Speaker 1: yard rushing Thomas Brady over zero point five yards rushing.
Speaker 1: Now this correlates as well with my game bets on
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs because I do not believe that
Speaker 1: Tom Brady will be kneeled down late in the game,
Speaker 1: and so therefore I can't run into if I believe
Speaker 1: that the Tom Brady will lose yardage kneeling down. What
Speaker 1: is your back? Tom Brady over half a yard rushing?
Speaker 1: Now I have a bet, but it's it's will he
Speaker 1: have any rush that's positive yardage? So it's not total
Speaker 1: rushing yards, it's will he have a positive rush? And
Speaker 1: I laid one that's the quarterback sneak. He is the greatest. Yes,
Speaker 1: that was so. My explanation was just that it's the
Speaker 1: greatest quarterback sneaker of all time. Third and one fourth
Speaker 1: and one doorstep of the end zone. Tom Brady will
Speaker 1: sneak at some point, and especially because Tampa Bay after
Speaker 1: seeing Sean mcderbott not be aggressive last week if there
Speaker 1: was any doubt. How you play the Chiefs, you've got
Speaker 1: to be aggressive. So if there are fourth and once,
Speaker 1: they'll be more inclined to go for it. And Brady's
Speaker 1: there and again correlating with my Kansas City conviction on
Speaker 1: the game line, Therefore, I won't be worried about the
Speaker 1: Tom Brady kneel downs to take yardage away. Tom Brady
Speaker 1: over half a yard rushing Todd, do you endorse it? Yeah?
Speaker 1: The only The only thing I would say is I
Speaker 1: have noticed this year, and I don't have the stats
Speaker 1: to back it up, but I have noticed he doesn't
Speaker 1: sneak as much as he used to do on the Patriots.
Speaker 1: And the Patriots used to sneak like every five seconds.
Speaker 1: It was like a sneak for a first down. I've
Speaker 1: noticed it's not as often on Tampa Bay, but I'm
Speaker 1: sure I could still happens. Well, he's he's he's ninety
Speaker 1: seven years old now and he's still he still sneaks
Speaker 1: it more than Big Ben or Rivers. No those guys
Speaker 1: sneak anymore at all. Tom Brady still sneaking at forty
Speaker 1: three years old. Uh, Todd, you don't have any right. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm just I don't really like to play these,
Speaker 1: But if I was gonna play one of them, I'd
Speaker 1: probably play tom Brady over a half of interception minus
Speaker 1: one ninety. I just think that there's I've seen too
Speaker 1: many Tom Brady games this year where he throws these
Speaker 1: dying duck quil passes out there and somebody drops it in,
Speaker 1: you know, and last week they were all catching them, obviously,
Speaker 1: so he threw all those or two weeks ago, he
Speaker 1: threw all those interceptions. But he throws a lot more
Speaker 1: interceptions than tom Brady Vintage New England used to throw.
Speaker 1: Tom Brady tom Brady Vintage New England didn't throw you know,
Speaker 1: a million balls that could have easily been intercepted. And
Speaker 1: I just noticed it a lot more. Now. Kansas City
Speaker 1: is not exactly the most um you know, uh, greatest
Speaker 1: secondary to to do this, but I just feel like
Speaker 1: if they get behind by too much, you know, he's
Speaker 1: gonna he gets rushed or something, he gets jostled a
Speaker 1: little bit. He seems to throw balls that are just
Speaker 1: not tom Brady esque. I would say, let's say he's
Speaker 1: before he threw five percent balls. There weren't Tom Brady
Speaker 1: this year. It's like se of Todd. Don't you think
Speaker 1: that you know, and he's still playing at a high level,
Speaker 1: but don't you think there's some throws now he's more
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers than Tom Brady. Short arms these balls and
Speaker 1: just lofts them out there like he never used to do.
Speaker 1: Did that last week a couple of times. That's why
Speaker 1: I say his his tom his non tom Brady esque
Speaker 1: throws are up to like, it's a lot more. It's
Speaker 1: a lot more non Tom Brady yes throws and you
Speaker 1: just didn't look. I'm not saying the guy's not great.
Speaker 1: He's the greatest of all time. In my opinion. He's
Speaker 1: a fantasy. He's even a good quarterback. Now. I just
Speaker 1: think that he's not the old Tom. I remember the
Speaker 1: old Tom Brady. The old Tom Brady was throwing darts
Speaker 1: and it would take a guy's head off. It would
Speaker 1: hit him right in the middle of the numbers every
Speaker 1: single time. It's not the same Tom Brady this year.
Speaker 1: But I'm not saying he's not good. By the way,
Speaker 1: it's that I don't have a bet on the total.
Speaker 1: But it's why I would not bet an under on
Speaker 1: this game. I would only bet the over because I think,
Speaker 1: just on what you're talking about, Todd, I think we
Speaker 1: will see a short field or two in this game,
Speaker 1: and short fields are the death of unders, and so
Speaker 1: I would I wouldn't. I can very easily see that happening.
Speaker 1: While interceptions were fortuitous in terms of field field position
Speaker 1: last week, um, you know deep in Green Bay territory,
Speaker 1: you can't always count on that. So yeah, for me,
Speaker 1: it would be on the total. Not that I bet it,
Speaker 1: by the way, full disclosure, but it would be Do
Speaker 1: you agree that? Do you and Dr Bob agree that
Speaker 1: his throws this year do like if you put them
Speaker 1: up against his old Tom Brady, not last year tom Brady.
Speaker 1: I'm talking about like two, three, four or five years
Speaker 1: ago tom Brady, it doesn't look the same. Well, the
Speaker 1: I do. I agree with that anecdotally. The pick that
Speaker 1: we saw, particularly the one that was intended for I
Speaker 1: guess intended in quotes for Evans last week at Green
Speaker 1: Bay was you know it was like no, no, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: not the tipped one, not the one over the middle
Speaker 1: where it went off Evans hands. But I'm talking about
Speaker 1: just like sort of the he just sort of figured
Speaker 1: Evans would would go under it and you know, on
Speaker 1: the outside. And I remember thinking remarking to myself or
Speaker 1: at least thinking about him, like, I don't see tom
Speaker 1: Brady doing that, Like he's not usually the one that
Speaker 1: that chucks that up and then hopes the receiver figures
Speaker 1: it out. You know that, Dr Bob? Do you agree
Speaker 1: with that? Also, I haven't watched enough Tampa Bay games.
Speaker 1: I watched the Red Zone channel while I'm working on
Speaker 1: college football, the you know, the next week's college football
Speaker 1: song show to glancing, So I'm not really watching enough
Speaker 1: Tampa based specific games to They're not showing a lot
Speaker 1: of Tom Brady's ducks on the Red Zone channel, probably
Speaker 1: showing more touchdowns than than bad plays. Do your stats?
Speaker 1: Do your stats say that he's a different quarterback now? Well,
Speaker 1: what's different is he's among the lead leaders, have not
Speaker 1: the league leader in average air yards per throw, So
Speaker 1: he's thrown it down the field a lot more than
Speaker 1: he did with New England, especially in recent years. Who's
Speaker 1: gonna have more interceptions? But given that he's leading the
Speaker 1: league or near the top of the league in average
Speaker 1: air yards per throw, his interception rate is relatively low.
Speaker 1: But because he's taking more chances down the field, he's
Speaker 1: gonna Yeah, he's not the same Tom Brady where he's
Speaker 1: gonna have five interceptions year. I mean, he's gonna throw
Speaker 1: more interceptions as they'll throwing the ball down filmore so.
Speaker 1: But do you take into account that now he's got
Speaker 1: like an all star team of receivers versus New England
Speaker 1: where he was doing all that amazing magical stuff with
Speaker 1: guys like Julian Edelman and like just garbage receivers except
Speaker 1: for when he had Randy Moss. He had did not
Speaker 1: have good receivers, and and now he's playing with this Tampa.
Speaker 1: That's why I feel like it's been disguised at because
Speaker 1: of that, he's taking more rest because he's got better
Speaker 1: receivers also among among the league leaders, and getting rid
Speaker 1: of the ball quickest still Tom Brady this year in Tampa. Um, Bob,
Speaker 1: you have a you have a few more. What's the
Speaker 1: number two? Well, you know, speaking of getting rid of
Speaker 1: the ball quickly, Um, the Buccaneers defense to record the
Speaker 1: first stack of the game is Mayas on ish Um.
Speaker 1: I think up to Mayas one fifty is a good
Speaker 1: bet that the Bucks will get the first stack. I
Speaker 1: already mentioned that Kansas City in the first meeting through
Speaker 1: the ball eight three percent of the time in the
Speaker 1: first half. Why why change that up? I expect something similar. Uh.
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay tends to run the ball on first intense
Speaker 1: their seventh in the league and first and ten run rate,
Speaker 1: so they tend to be more conservative, especially early in
Speaker 1: the game. Um, and I've already mentioned Kansas City's offensive
Speaker 1: line problems, So I just think there's gonna be more
Speaker 1: pressure on my homes than normal. Uh. Tampa Bay's saturated
Speaker 1: six point nine percent, which is high. Mahomes was only
Speaker 1: sacked three point four percent of the time, but like
Speaker 1: I said, most of them was with a healthy offensive line. Um,
Speaker 1: Brady gets rid of the ball quick, like you said.
Speaker 1: That was one of my points. So I think Tampa
Speaker 1: Hanpason is gonna throw the ball more often early in
Speaker 1: the game, I think than Tampa Bay will. And because
Speaker 1: that's part of the reason, I think the Buccaneers will
Speaker 1: record the first defensive sack. So that's a prop there.
Speaker 1: I like that, Mikey. Uh, those were the only two.
Speaker 1: I bet. What was your second was the Brady will
Speaker 1: have a rushing attempt a positive yard and over one
Speaker 1: and a half Chiefs touchdowns in the first half. That's
Speaker 1: that's it. Okay, um my number two is Travis Kelsey
Speaker 1: anytime touchdown minus one se Travis Kelsey anytime touchdown minus
Speaker 1: one seventy five A lot to lay. Bob made a
Speaker 1: point about Tampa Bay's uh defense covering tight ends pretty well.
Speaker 1: This is one of these bets where I'm just sort
Speaker 1: of like a bet, I'm willing to lose. You can
Speaker 1: beat me on this tip of the captains, Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
Speaker 1: they're still gooda when they get close, they're still gonna
Speaker 1: look for Kelsey. Then yeah, maybe in general Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: does not allow a lot of receiving arts to tight ends.
Speaker 1: But they're suddenly looking for him and down near the
Speaker 1: goal line, and he saw the kind of the trick
Speaker 1: play they kind of had to get him open against
Speaker 1: the Bills, I mean where they kind of snuck them
Speaker 1: out And how did they not cover Kelsey? Is that
Speaker 1: last week weeks ago which one Kelsey step out was
Speaker 1: wide open in the end zone for one of those touchdowns. Oh,
Speaker 1: they all run in together for me. Now, I'm not
Speaker 1: sure which one you're referring to. It was I was
Speaker 1: against the bills of the week before that. Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: where he was just sitting out there in this direction
Speaker 1: where Kelsey came out to the left, no one was around,
Speaker 1: you know, five days to get him over here the episode.
Speaker 1: So I'm not against that. I don't know if I've
Speaker 1: laid one step five odds, but I'm not against it.
Speaker 1: I had no problem laying what my minus one seven
Speaker 1: five for eighty two last time these two teams played.
Speaker 1: By the way, um, there's some interesting plus justice if
Speaker 1: you could, you think he's gonna get two touchdowns over
Speaker 1: one and a half some really nice plus yeah, plus
Speaker 1: money you can get. Some books are offering two guys
Speaker 1: scoring a touchdown at plus money. You know you can
Speaker 1: do the math on and see if it's good. DraftKings
Speaker 1: is doing that, by the way, they didn't offer Travis
Speaker 1: Kelsey and Tom Brady. I'm gonna have to ask Johnny
Speaker 1: Evell to put that one up. But interesting stat about
Speaker 1: the red zone though for for Kansas City, I'm not
Speaker 1: sure if your stats corroborate this as well, Bob, that
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill has gotten one more red zone target than
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey this year. I would never have imagined that.
Speaker 1: I would have thought it would be a math monster
Speaker 1: gap between the two. Well, they run those little There's
Speaker 1: been a couple of life scene where they kind of
Speaker 1: run him in motion and then he just keeps going
Speaker 1: and sort of just runs to the corner and then
Speaker 1: get him the ball before the like one yard or
Speaker 1: at the line of scrimmage, and then he just sort
Speaker 1: of sprints it into the corner. Pymon. I've seen a
Speaker 1: few of those. Those are the only those are the
Speaker 1: only two props. I've been Brady over half yard and
Speaker 1: Kelsey might just wants every home. You have a couple
Speaker 1: more bumps. I'm gonna do one more. UM Brian Pringle,
Speaker 1: who maybe no one's heard about, but there are props
Speaker 1: on his receiving yards and it's at ten and a
Speaker 1: half mostly UM. He's been getting some playing time because
Speaker 1: Watkins has been out. Looks like Watkins is gonna play UM.
Speaker 1: So they have Tyree Hill to Marcus Robinson, Um Hardeman,
Speaker 1: and then Watkins. So Pringle would be the fifth wide receiver.
Speaker 1: He might not even got on the field, So I
Speaker 1: think under ten and a half receiving yards even if
Speaker 1: he does catch a ball, it's probably gonna be around
Speaker 1: ten yards. I think it's a good bet. I don't
Speaker 1: think he's gonna get a get a target. So if
Speaker 1: Watkins plays, I don't think Kingles playing, so under ten
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards on Brian Kringle. If you
Speaker 1: can find it, there's that's some of the major books.
Speaker 1: Not every online book is going to have that, but
Speaker 1: there's one. There's one to play. If you have one
Speaker 1: deal that you might like, what do you got tough?
Speaker 1: I kind of like this one length of longest drive
Speaker 1: under eighty four and a half minus one thirty. So
Speaker 1: basically what that means is as long as nobody starts
Speaker 1: from inside the fifteen yard line and goes for a touchdown,
Speaker 1: you win the bet. So here's why I'm thinking that
Speaker 1: that might be a good bet. Why would that even
Speaker 1: happen in the first place? Right it would happen is
Speaker 1: if one team is it around seven yard line and
Speaker 1: decides to punt and somehow pins the other team deep,
Speaker 1: and now the other team goes, you know, more than
Speaker 1: eighty four and a half yard drive starting from the fifteen.
Speaker 1: I have a feeling that Tampa Bay is gonna think
Speaker 1: if they're on the plus side of the field. They've
Speaker 1: got to go for it because you've gotta beat Kansas
Speaker 1: City when you have the opportunity. So I don't see
Speaker 1: them thinking, Okay, yeah, let's pin Kansas City back because
Speaker 1: Kansa City is gonna be at the Fort yard land
Speaker 1: in ten minutes, in ten seconds anyways, so why even
Speaker 1: try to pin them deep? Typically that's probably not gonna
Speaker 1: happen as much against Kansas City. You're gonna go for
Speaker 1: it more as opposed to try to pin them deep.
Speaker 1: On the other side, Kansas City may try to do
Speaker 1: it to Tampa Bay, but then as Tampa Bay really
Speaker 1: gonna be able to do um eighty five yard drives,
Speaker 1: I'm more concerned about Kansas City being able to do it.
Speaker 1: So I kind of like that one under eighty four
Speaker 1: and a half as the longest drive minus one thirty.
Speaker 1: I don't know what you guys think about that. I
Speaker 1: like the reason they the only two things that could
Speaker 1: get you, I guess, are our deep deep field position,
Speaker 1: pick or turnover or fumble, pick or fumble, and if
Speaker 1: a kickoff return is mortared right or just a bad
Speaker 1: kickoff return, that would be the only other thing obviously,
Speaker 1: typically they get to the sixteen. Yes, typically, I forgot
Speaker 1: I have a third one. It's it's I laid four
Speaker 1: oh five. Okay, Brad Pinion, the punter for Tampa, Brad
Speaker 1: racking Pinion will not punt a touch back minus four
Speaker 1: oh five, will not punch a touchback, right. I like that.
Speaker 1: He's He's had fifty five punts two touchbacks this year
Speaker 1: and plus. The reason I choose the home punter is
Speaker 1: because he would more understand the wind and the weather
Speaker 1: conditions in that stadium since he kicks there eight times
Speaker 1: a year. But also that goes with the times expected,
Speaker 1: well not many. That's another factor, b I mean, how
Speaker 1: many times can you punt against Kansas City and not
Speaker 1: from plus territory. That's my same theory, Mike three, maybe
Speaker 1: three times two or three? Yeah, let's say three, and
Speaker 1: then it would be ten and a half percent that
Speaker 1: he would have a touchback. Would good? I think yeah,
Speaker 1: it would be good. I also think, Bob, it would
Speaker 1: be waited to the fact that they're not going to
Speaker 1: be punting from the plus forty you know what I mean,
Speaker 1: They're gonna be going for They're gonna be punting when
Speaker 1: they're backed up. I agree. I think that's a good bat.
Speaker 1: By the way, there weren't a lot of punts in
Speaker 1: the first game. By the way, Bob, could you just
Speaker 1: explain the Matthew just did for people. Well, he said
Speaker 1: two touchbacks and fifty fifty three divided by fifty five
Speaker 1: at this point nine six, three, six, and then you
Speaker 1: to the third. If he's gonna plant three times, you
Speaker 1: use that to the third. And then she tracked one.
Speaker 1: The chance he's gonna have a touchback is one minus
Speaker 1: the chance he has no touchback. The chance here has
Speaker 1: no touchbacks is like I said, fifty three out of
Speaker 1: fifty five to the third, no touchback, no touchback, no
Speaker 1: touch Actually find those together, um, and then subtracted one
Speaker 1: of the chance. But that and that doesn't take into
Speaker 1: account with Mikeias thing, which is it's also he's agreeing
Speaker 1: with me. It's going to be rare for Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: to be yes right, if that premise is true. It's
Speaker 1: even less like that. I think it's a good better
Speaker 1: four or five, because it should be problem with minus
Speaker 1: five to water. Of course, all of these thoughts are
Speaker 1: if they're doing what they're supposed to be doing, right,
Speaker 1: But even if not. If he punched three times, I
Speaker 1: meant times in the regular season in seventeen games, that's
Speaker 1: three three and a half, right, three three and change,
Speaker 1: not even a half for you. Right, So if you think,
Speaker 1: all right, well, maybe they put a little bit less
Speaker 1: than three is three is legit? Even if it is,
Speaker 1: you know, three point three point three, it's still eleven
Speaker 1: and a half percent that he has a touch back. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's like seven to one on I think that's very few.
Speaker 1: Very few punts are touch backs, especially hardman fields it
Speaker 1: at the one anyhow, right there, the old fair that's right,
Speaker 1: thank you. Yeah, they old like let it go if
Speaker 1: it's inside the ten, doesn't I don't know when they
Speaker 1: decided they don't do that anymore, but they don't. Um.
Speaker 1: I'll say this every year again. The one prop that
Speaker 1: flummixes tends to flummix the casual better the most in
Speaker 1: Super Bowl prop history, will the team score three times
Speaker 1: in a row? The no has a huge plus money
Speaker 1: plus one seventy ish. The average better looks at that?
Speaker 1: What do you mean? These are the two best teams
Speaker 1: in football, By the way, conversions accepted here. These are
Speaker 1: the two best teams in football. What are the chances
Speaker 1: of one of these teams scoring three times in a row?
Speaker 1: It happens all the time, by the way, last eleven
Speaker 1: Super Bowls, for instance, if you want to do a
Speaker 1: small sample's eye, it's happened seven times that a team
Speaker 1: has scored three times in a row. So don't be
Speaker 1: don't be so tempted by the no there that is
Speaker 1: actually properly priced and books know this. Books aren't as
Speaker 1: dumb as you might think they are in these particular situations. Bob,
Speaker 1: has there ever been? Is there? Is? There? Are there
Speaker 1: others that you look at where you're like, oh, I
Speaker 1: can see people being hoodwinked by this one. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I think that's a good one, and that's a trick one.
Speaker 1: And I've actually never really I see that one every
Speaker 1: year and I'm like, uh, just I just don't go
Speaker 1: and figure out the math, you know, I'm like, and
Speaker 1: I have to go. I have to you have to
Speaker 1: write some kind of querry you go through the play
Speaker 1: by play dead of all these games and competitive games
Speaker 1: versus non competitive It would just be a headache. It's
Speaker 1: just not worth my time to involve one other prop
Speaker 1: and this sort of fly than the You know, if
Speaker 1: I'm if you're in the Tampa Bay if you think
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is has value, then Tom Brady to win
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl is plus two tennis um m v
Speaker 1: it wins the Super Bowl. I think Tom Brady is
Speaker 1: very likely to be the m v P. So if
Speaker 1: you're on the top, if you're on the Tampa Bay train,
Speaker 1: you think Tampa he has got a decent chance at
Speaker 1: an upset. Here ish of an upset, then Tom Brady
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl plus two ten is that would
Speaker 1: have value? Can you find plus two ten on Brady down?
Speaker 1: That seems like wow? Plus two ten plus. I talked
Speaker 1: about now, talked about this before the playoffs started that
Speaker 1: if you had conviction on the Packers or if you
Speaker 1: had conviction on the Chiefs, that was the time to
Speaker 1: bet Rogers or Mahomes on m v P because you
Speaker 1: were getting like five to one and six to one respectively.
Speaker 1: You know, we we brought up a point on on
Speaker 1: a numbers game on Visa the other day with Drew Dinsic.
Speaker 1: Which is one of the things about voting for the
Speaker 1: m v P is the haste with which they vote
Speaker 1: for this. So usually by the by by the time
Speaker 1: the clock goes to zero, they already telling you who
Speaker 1: the m v P is. And the reason that came
Speaker 1: up is because the a f C Championship, Travis Kelsey
Speaker 1: had thirteen catches and two touchdowns. Tyreek Hill had a
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy yards receiving, And so I sort of
Speaker 1: hypothetically asked if those stats were transferred to the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: Let's say the Chiefs win the Super Bowl and Tyreek
Speaker 1: has a hundred seventy yards receiving and Travis Kelsey thirteen
Speaker 1: catches plus two touchdowns. Would one of those two guys
Speaker 1: get the MVP or would they still give it to
Speaker 1: the homes And one of the things we talked about
Speaker 1: was the sheer haste with which they give the award.
Speaker 1: They don't have like an hour to contemplate this stuff,
Speaker 1: like and you know the NBA m v P, where
Speaker 1: they have weeks to consider it or months for the
Speaker 1: whole arc of the season, and they finally do it
Speaker 1: very deliberately, they're like, Bam, there's your m v P.
Speaker 1: And so that really does further tip it to the
Speaker 1: scales of the quarterback because you they really just like
Speaker 1: just get to the homes kind of thing, although in
Speaker 1: the first game still would have definitely been that. Yes,
Speaker 1: if it's an outlier like that where he's two hundred
Speaker 1: yards in by halftime, but it would take something like that.
Speaker 1: And in the in the case of Brady, which I'll
Speaker 1: agree with you even more, they are going to bend
Speaker 1: over backwards. Right with that narrative, let's give this guy,
Speaker 1: like what would have to happen for Tom for Tampa
Speaker 1: to win and Tom Brady not to get at m
Speaker 1: v P. You can make the argument that if there
Speaker 1: was an m VP of the Championship game two weeks
Speaker 1: ago against Green Bay, he threw three interceptions, he still
Speaker 1: probably would have gotten the m v P. Yeah, in
Speaker 1: recent days, recent days anecdotally, now, Mark de Rosa, who
Speaker 1: had big Tampa Bay futures UH one two, like a
Speaker 1: quarter million on them winning the NFC Championship, stands to
Speaker 1: make more on the Super Bowl. He bet this before,
Speaker 1: like the day before Tom Brady went to the Bucks.
Speaker 1: Jason Weingarten, who had Tampa Bay Kansas City exact as,
Speaker 1: also had Tampa Bay to win the NFC. Both of
Speaker 1: these guys have been in the case of Gross a
Speaker 1: hundred fifty two one on both uh Jason Pierre Paul
Speaker 1: and Shack Barrett to win m v P. The thinking being,
Speaker 1: and you're just trying to come up with a game
Speaker 1: script draw line. If Tampa Bay went like, let's take
Speaker 1: last year's Super Bowl. If San Francisco makes a stop
Speaker 1: at the end of that game, Let's say it's an
Speaker 1: interception or from or whatever, it is, a big hit,
Speaker 1: maybe one of San Francisco's defenders gets m v P.
Speaker 1: May ab so, I guess there's a scenario where that's
Speaker 1: what they're Anyway, at the number they thought it was,
Speaker 1: JPP could have like three sacks and two fumbles or
Speaker 1: something that would do it. Barrett barretts in a better spot. Barrett.
Speaker 1: Barrett has a higher saparate than JPP, and he's also
Speaker 1: going to be going against the backup tackle, right, but
Speaker 1: Barrett has a better chance of getting sacks. And man
Speaker 1: Barrett was all over the field against the Packers, that's
Speaker 1: for sure. So anyway, just by the way, I have
Speaker 1: one that I wanted to ask you guys about total
Speaker 1: players to attempt to pass, including overtime. I have under
Speaker 1: two and a half at minus two fifteen over two
Speaker 1: and half a plus one six. I don't remember these
Speaker 1: teams letting anybody throw the ball besides um Mahmes and Brady.
Speaker 1: Do you guys remember anybody throwing the ball for Kansas
Speaker 1: City this year or for Tampa Bay. We actually looked
Speaker 1: into that sam Sammy Watkins through a pass, That's what's that.
Speaker 1: I thought that too. I was thinking I saw something
Speaker 1: on a reverse path. But it's not common. No, it's
Speaker 1: not like a Saint situation. They don't need to do
Speaker 1: it in the Super Bowl with two great quarterbacks, they
Speaker 1: don't need to take that risk. Yeh. That's why I
Speaker 1: think that No, No. Under two and a half minus
Speaker 1: two fifteen might be worth it. It's not like, you know,
Speaker 1: you have like Belichick, who's gonna, you know, have Edelman
Speaker 1: throw it for a touchdown or something like that. It's
Speaker 1: it's not that kind of deal. Imagine if you had
Speaker 1: that bet the worst bad beat ever, they're lining up
Speaker 1: for the game winning field goal or something. It's a
Speaker 1: bad snap and the holder has to toss, right, That's right,
Speaker 1: that'll get you. The other work that we were talking
Speaker 1: about is there was like an offensive lineman or a
Speaker 1: defensive lineman to score a touchdown and it was like huge,
Speaker 1: you know, bank for your I have that right here. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and any offensive lineman to score touchdown is plus two thousand. Yes,
Speaker 1: the no is like minus a gazillion. And any offensive
Speaker 1: or defensive lineman to score a touchdown this way you
Speaker 1: get both is plus eight hundred no minus two thousand. Book,
Speaker 1: is that, Todd? This is the DraftKings. Yeah, so you'd
Speaker 1: have to go back and see how many times they
Speaker 1: wrote a tackle eligible thing down by the goal line.
Speaker 1: And I don't know that often, Todd. Have you found
Speaker 1: any penalty props? I haven't really, I haven't looked. I
Speaker 1: did see, I did see some penalty I was scrolling
Speaker 1: through all this nonsense while you guys were talking, and
Speaker 1: I did see. I did see some penalty props. Do
Speaker 1: you want me to see if I can find him again?
Speaker 1: It was there an offensive holding total number of offensive
Speaker 1: holding calls? M M, yeah, I got punch. Oh, there's
Speaker 1: all these punting props. These are the ones you were
Speaker 1: talking about, the inside the five drive props. Penalty props
Speaker 1: here you go, Okay, penalty props. They've got either team
Speaker 1: to commit a roughing the passer penalty, including overtime. That's
Speaker 1: a good one. What do you think that one is? Guys,
Speaker 1: that's gotta that. You've gotta lay some juice on that. No,
Speaker 1: no is minus one sixty two plus one thirty. Well,
Speaker 1: so if you want, that's a yes or nothing for me,
Speaker 1: I would pay yes. And both of these quarterbacks are
Speaker 1: the ones that will protect to you know what I mean,
Speaker 1: not like Cam Newton where they let him beat him
Speaker 1: up and they never call ruffing. You can't cough on
Speaker 1: Tom Brady. You know, total penalties over ten and a half,
Speaker 1: under ten and under ten and a half is minus
Speaker 1: one thirty seven over ten and a half is plus
Speaker 1: one ten How is that worded accepted penalties? This just
Speaker 1: says total penalty. That's very poorly worded, because if it's
Speaker 1: total penalties, you go over. Yeah, I think it's accepted. Yeah,
Speaker 1: well do you you're there, you're the referee, Gay, Do
Speaker 1: you have any angle on this officiating crew? No? Not really? Uh.
Speaker 1: I just I was wondering if they put offensive holding,
Speaker 1: because they just they refused to call offensive holding anymore
Speaker 1: in the NFL. So I was wondering if they put
Speaker 1: up like a three and a half on that would
Speaker 1: be an interesting number. How about the difference. Here's one
Speaker 1: we've seen in these some games where they're just like,
Speaker 1: we're absolutely not throwing any flags. Then some games were
Speaker 1: like we're the stars, We're throwing every flag we can.
Speaker 1: Bus Well, I think no matter what, everybody enjoys the game,
Speaker 1: they don't throw the flag. I mean, you know, there's
Speaker 1: what what are what are the flags? Most stuff's reviewable anyhow,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So well, in the green
Speaker 1: Bay game, there was definitely missed um miss defensive holding
Speaker 1: which they usually always call on the receivers until the
Speaker 1: last play, which was the most important play, which they
Speaker 1: didn't miss. The Murphy bunting pick was a total interference.
Speaker 1: But I mean, in fairness, the green Bay right tackle
Speaker 1: was or left tackle was you know, false started every
Speaker 1: play they never called it. And then there was one
Speaker 1: play where green Bay was a full second and a
Speaker 1: half after the play call went to zero and nobody
Speaker 1: said a word. They miss They missed that. They always
Speaker 1: missed there's one guy that's looking at four things, and
Speaker 1: they missed that a lot. They miss it when it's
Speaker 1: a beat like a half second. But this one was
Speaker 1: like one, by the way, here's the here's the one
Speaker 1: that basically is what you're talking is similar to what
Speaker 1: you're talking about first accepted penalty type. There's eight different
Speaker 1: choice choices here, and I don't think holding should be
Speaker 1: the favorite. They have holding it plus two thirty personal
Speaker 1: foul plus three hundred, false start plus four hundred. That's
Speaker 1: what I would guess it should be. False starter off
Speaker 1: sides it should be this. It's gonna be one of
Speaker 1: those pre snap penalties, right, That's what I would say.
Speaker 1: False starts should be the favorite. False start is third
Speaker 1: at plus four hundred. Offside is plus four fifty, passenger
Speaker 1: ferens plus five seventy five, the layout game plus eighteen
Speaker 1: hundred that will never happen, no penalties is plus ten thousand,
Speaker 1: and any other fouls plus seven. I would go with
Speaker 1: false start plus four hundred false starts. In the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: people are like nervous and stuff. I like that one.
Speaker 1: You didn't do the handway. I got a couple of
Speaker 1: guys on Casey's line that haven't been playing all season
Speaker 1: and maybe don't own Mahome's aiden, so I could see
Speaker 1: some star. Do you generally hear the ones we're talking about, Bob,
Speaker 1: and you're like, I don't have time for this or
Speaker 1: are you intrigued by the ever growing man those No,
Speaker 1: you are not. I didn't think you were. I'm not
Speaker 1: in my wheelhouse interesting just because it's a time suck
Speaker 1: if you had to really truly research stuff like this. Yes, okay,
Speaker 1: that's what I thought. All right, Well I'm with Bob anyways,
Speaker 1: because a lot of this stuff is correlated anyway, you
Speaker 1: might as well just watch it. First of all, don't
Speaker 1: bet before the game. Watch the damn game. You get
Speaker 1: so much more value and end game and by the way,
Speaker 1: just one more shot for in game, because I always,
Speaker 1: I always, um, you know, talk up end game. You
Speaker 1: have to understand, you get all this information free. It's
Speaker 1: free of charge. At the end of one quarter, they're
Speaker 1: just going to make the line whatever the original line
Speaker 1: is for the final three quarters. So guys, you didn't
Speaker 1: have to bet before the game exact line. Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: big deal. The information is worth so much more. And
Speaker 1: also the thirty cent line is nonsense too, because if
Speaker 1: you're anywhere, you just compare a couple of different books
Speaker 1: and you can certainly knock that thing down. Well, you're
Speaker 1: right on that, and the counter of the counter is
Speaker 1: I'll pay extra jews if it's like four points better right,
Speaker 1: you know that kind of thing from what it was
Speaker 1: proof if I'm studying in game bets say again, Bob,
Speaker 1: I agree with you, and talk about if you're taking
Speaker 1: the Todd let him finish. You can't do Margarita's. If
Speaker 1: he's doing in game, you can't do Margarita That. That
Speaker 1: reminds me of a lass So its debate watch party
Speaker 1: that my wife and I went to. Alass So explain
Speaker 1: to people. Alassa is a plaintiff attorney that used to
Speaker 1: sponsor a segment at the debate party. Follow the money,
Speaker 1: and it was all Trump people. It was all they had. Margarita's.
Speaker 1: Oh god, I was sending pictures to Mitch and in
Speaker 1: the but what's very young people was surprised. It was
Speaker 1: like all people. It was his kid's age five to thirty,
Speaker 1: all the district attorneys and all this. We're tremendous spread,
Speaker 1: great prime rib it was. It was, my wife said,
Speaker 1: except for the debate. It was a nice party, amendous spread,
Speaker 1: nicest party I've ever been. Yeah, the greatest spread ever.
Speaker 1: All Right, I gotta go Gil, alright, he's gotta go
Speaker 1: do the some people are saying, some people are saying,
Speaker 1: I hear Mike Palm, thanks Dr thank you, thank you,
Speaker 1: thank you for the whole season. Mikey, thank you, Buddy,
Speaker 1: appreciate all right, you talk to Dr Bob. We'll wrap
Speaker 1: it up for Mike Palm, for Todd wish for the
Speaker 1: great Dr Bob, Thank you, Bob, appreciate as always, man's
Speaker 1: good um r I POSHATAI. Well we'll never have it back,
Speaker 1: but we can always have the memories. Uh. Good luck
Speaker 1: to everybody with all your Super Bowl fifty five bets
Speaker 1: either on the game uh spread, money line or total.
Speaker 1: Certainly with all your prop bets as well for all
Speaker 1: of us on the Beating the book megapod, thanks for
Speaker 1: listening today, Thanks for listening all season long. We'll have
Speaker 1: another podcast and start the off season in a few weeks.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for listening. Good luck with all
Speaker 1: your backs.