1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,160 Speaker 1: Let's get to our guests. Robert Shin c i O 2 00:00:02,240 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: at Blankie Shine Wealth Management. Robert, So, a natural tail 3 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 1: wind is the seasonal time of year, it's usually good 4 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: for stocks. A natural headwind is the big and muscular 5 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: FED with its QT and with its higher interest rates. 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: Does one win in the short term and the other 7 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: win in the longer term. Yeah, we believe. So we're 8 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 1: seeing as we come to a close for a lot 9 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 1: of still uncertainty, a lot of um guessing as to 10 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: what the FED is going to do, and data dependent 11 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:37,919 Speaker 1: as the Fed's going to be. But we're still we 12 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: still believe that the FED is going to continue. It's 13 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: has to win at all cost strategy meaning hawkish going 14 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: into well. San Francisco FED suggested that the jobless rate 15 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily signal an impending recession. Do you agree? And 16 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 1: canna resilient labor market and consumption support equities in the 17 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 1: coming up months. If we look at the invert of 18 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: yield curve, it's forecasting a recession. For the question is 19 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: how deep and the timing of which is is really 20 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: on the minds of everybody. But going back to the 21 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 1: strong labor market and the accelerating rate. Wage growth basically 22 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 1: poses the biggest threat for the FED, and ultimately they're 23 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: going to have to work on that. Next week we 24 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: have the wage inflation number, whether it's being uh, you know, 25 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: embedded entrenched in the economy, and that's what the FED 26 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,759 Speaker 1: has really said. They're gonna they're gonna focus on that, 27 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 1: and they're going to push rates at all costs. But 28 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: the yield curve is telling us something completely different. That 29 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 1: fore we have to set up and be um cautiously optimistic. Essentially, 30 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: as we navigate through the new year. Let's say the 31 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 1: yield curve is wrong, and and the and the reason 32 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: I want to postulate that is that, um, the yield 33 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: curve probably didn't know that China was going to flip 34 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 1: on a dime and open up the economy like it did. 35 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: And we don't know exactly the trajectory of that. But 36 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 1: let's say that you know, they start cooking, um, consumers 37 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 1: start spending, they start traveling, and the economy grows. Doesn't 38 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: that bring the long end of the yield curve, the 39 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: tenures say, up around maybe four and a half percent, 40 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 1: And once it gets up near where the two year is, 41 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:20,519 Speaker 1: then maybe people won't keep talking about the inversion of 42 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: the yield curve and recession. Yeah, you also have to 43 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:28,119 Speaker 1: keep in mind that the globally, Europe's in recession right now, 44 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: and a lot of other outside the US we're seeing 45 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: signs of recession. And obviously the pivot in terms of 46 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: um sort of the support within China to support their 47 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: economy from real estate and so in other aspects um, 48 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: the global economy and the weight of global economy is 49 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 1: actually growth is coming down. And so that's a momentum 50 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 1: that really is unpredictable. So we have to be cautious 51 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,959 Speaker 1: as we calculate that and as we navigate that, and 52 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: as much as central bank want to, you know, be 53 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,959 Speaker 1: proactive and sort of have a soft landing. Um, we're seeing, 54 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,119 Speaker 1: you know, the global markets tell us something different. How 55 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 1: about the dollar, the once mighty dollars now I guess, 56 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 1: for a lack of better word, languishing at a six 57 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: month low. Might the weak a dollar bit tailwin for 58 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: US earnings next year? The dollars a function right now 59 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 1: of predicting what would happen excuse me for the US 60 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 1: as are fed gets closer to maybe a not a 61 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 1: not a pivot but a pause in the US, which 62 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: is supporting the interest rates or the dollar if you will, 63 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 1: in the US. Uh, you're seeing the central banks around 64 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: the world stronger. So that's where you're seeing the dollar, 65 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: you know, below the twenty the two outer day moving average, 66 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 1: and even the fifty day moving average, which is a 67 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: technical basis. Yes, it's coming down, and it's actually a 68 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: welcome sign, uh for for for the globe. But at 69 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: the same time, we still think that the US is 70 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: going to continue on the interstrate policy that could strengthen 71 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 1: the dollar a little further from where it is. So 72 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 1: I'm interested in your strategy and how you play this. Uh, 73 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 1: you're sounding a little on the various side obviously going 74 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 1: into at least the first part of next year. UM, 75 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 1: what are some of your best ideas at the moment. Yeah, 76 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: we're we're definitely we've definitely been you know, risk management 77 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: philosophy for our clients for two and we're going to 78 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 1: continue the theme for and that's really the major theme essentially. Um. 79 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 1: You know, healthcare is going to be a good place 80 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 1: because the cash flow, the dividends, uh, consumer stables, especially 81 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: as you enter into a recession not only here but 82 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: around the world. Um, you know, those those household products 83 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 1: are are important. UM. We also believe that you know, 84 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 1: positive dividend growth, cash flow is king. And finally, it's 85 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: all about strategic rebalancing. What we did for our clients 86 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: and Blank Sealth Management back in March and April of 87 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: twenty twenty is when the equity markets provided a tremendous opportunity. 88 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 1: We rebalance client portfolios to take advantage that. We believe 89 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 1: that could happen again in going forward and we're positioned 90 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: for that. So in the short term, we're positioning treasuries 91 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 1: because treasury yield on the short term yield curve is 92 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: you know, well over four percent. Uh. And then the 93 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: large caps Robert, I want to I want to talk 94 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 1: about TAG. Tag having its worst year since two thousand eight, 95 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: is trying to claw back some of those games before 96 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: the year ends. Big winners today where too for Tag? Yeah, 97 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: we like large cap tech and that's the future if 98 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 1: you look at you know, three or five, ten years. UM. Yes, 99 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: this last year hasn't been the you know for large 100 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 1: cap tech. UH. What we own for our clients are 101 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 1: the large established companies you know, UM, have cash, strong 102 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 1: balance sheet and they can within a storm and out 103 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:54,919 Speaker 1: on the other side of the recession they get stronger. 104 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: So we like that. Even though yes, year to date 105 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: they're down twenty respec actively, but they're the biggest, largest 106 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 1: companies and they will prevail long term. So we're strong 107 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 1: believers in large cap tech. The companies that don't have 108 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 1: strong balance sheets, don't have cash flow or sort of 109 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 1: the I p O of the spect world. For for 110 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 1: this year, we didn't invest in our clients for that UM, 111 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: and we don't believe in that. So yeah, there's two 112 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,599 Speaker 1: different sort of markets in tech, but large cap tech 113 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,479 Speaker 1: is an opportunity moving forward. Okay, in the large cap 114 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:30,600 Speaker 1: tech space, UM, let's talk about some of the different industries. 115 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 1: So you've got semiconductors, you've got cloud, and you've got software. Uh, 116 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: and then you've got obviously the the sort of internet 117 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: companies and the e commerce companies. So which ones you 118 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: like the most? You like software, cloud will continue, UM. 119 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 1: And then again even the chips, even though we've seen 120 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 1: a chip glut, you have to look at these valuations 121 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: on these these companies because they'll work through the inventories. UM. 122 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 1: And you know, keep in mind the equity markets, price 123 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: in well before the recession. So you want to sort 124 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 1: of dollar cost average and take advantage of some of 125 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: these categories within technology because by the time you say 126 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: okay it's all clear to invest, that opportunity has passed. 127 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: So we're dollar costs averaging. We like the software is, 128 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: we like you know, some of the cloud computing, We 129 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: like some of the even the cyber securities which got 130 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: beat up this year. Um, but that's you know, there's 131 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: some good opportunities out there. So we're picking and choosing 132 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: our opportunities. But we have confidence long term on the 133 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: companies that we're picking up. Will you be picking and choosing? 134 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: Tesla has been caught up in a horrible route. Have 135 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: we seen bottom? You know, Tesla has been in a 136 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 1: you know, a tornado of headlines. Um. Long term evy 137 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: number one, they're going to continue. In fact, if you 138 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 1: look at the scalability, Uh, they're just hitting their numbers now. 139 00:07:56,600 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: Obviously China and in terms of COVID and potentially production 140 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 1: and ability to meet the production numbers is what we're 141 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 1: all waiting on. But yeah, we're taking advantage of Tesla, 142 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: you know, at these levels because we believe that even 143 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: a year to two years from now, even five years 144 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: from now, they're going to still maintain their leadership position. 145 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 1: And we believe that the growth is still there in 146 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 1: the e V space. And keep in mind that the 147 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 1: US has passed the bill that is going to even 148 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,640 Speaker 1: add an incentive for all e VS for U S 149 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: consumers starting January one, so that's sort of a tail 150 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: win as well. We're seeing economic activity rebound in Chinese 151 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,959 Speaker 1: cities where COVID infections have peaked, and so if you 152 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: look at the particularly in the north and the central 153 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: parts of the country, Beijing, chong Ching, chung Do, and 154 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: and Wuhan have seen their subways jump forty in the 155 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: week through Wednesday. So this is just the idea that 156 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:56,679 Speaker 1: once you give freedom to Chinese people who have been 157 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 1: locked down for a couple of years, that they're going 158 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:00,680 Speaker 1: to run. Can I get you excite died about China 159 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 1: at all? You can, um, But that's also going to 160 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: add to the inflation fears around the world right because 161 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 1: of the pent up demand. And so this is just 162 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,959 Speaker 1: gonna be the knock on effect of economies around the 163 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: world going through COVID or COVID going around through the 164 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 1: world and adding into the demand. The goodness is the 165 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 1: supply chain around the world seems like it's it's opening up. 166 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 1: So that's going to help on the demand pressures to 167 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 1: ease some of the inflation and pressures. But I think 168 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 1: that's the number one key here is inflation around the world. Um. 169 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 1: For if we can get that under control and not 170 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: hit a global depression or a recession if you will. Um. 171 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,840 Speaker 1: You know, China looks interesting, it really does. Um. So 172 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 1: it does a lot of opportunities. So we see the 173 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:49,199 Speaker 1: first half around the globe, um, you know, be cautious, 174 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 1: be patient, and then start taking opportunities um as they come, 175 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: because I think we could see a turnaround, but we 176 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: could see some headline risks, some valuation, you know, concerns 177 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 1: in the market, bring the market down a little bit further. 178 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: But then it could be you know, sort of the 179 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: story of finally we have growth again and we have 180 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: you know, some opportunity in all right, Robert, thanks very 181 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Really enjoyed it. Robert shin Ce 182 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:17,319 Speaker 1: io it Blankie Shine Wealth Management