Speaker 1: From Marhart where Innovation, Money and Power Collie in Silicon
Speaker 1: Vallet NBN. This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and
Speaker 1: Ed Ludlow.
Speaker 2: And Caroline Heine Bloomberg's world headquarters in New York and
Speaker 2: Amid Lovelow in San Francisco.
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Technology coming up.
Speaker 2: It has been the year for Nvidio Ali stocks and
Speaker 2: lofty valuations mean more than as like one hundred and
Speaker 2: nets is sept for his best year in over a decade.
Speaker 2: Can Tech continue its golden earer going into twenty twenty four?
Speaker 3: Plus it's a must for Musk. A San Francisco federal
Speaker 3: judge has signaled that Elon Musk must testify in the
Speaker 3: SEC Twitter stock pro We're gonna have all the details.
Speaker 2: And the outlook for electric vehicles isn't quite as bright
Speaker 2: as it was six months ago, and the US might
Speaker 2: be to blaze. And we talk about how GM four
Speaker 2: and Tesla contribute to the EV sales setback.
Speaker 3: So we're gonna have a big focus in this show
Speaker 3: today on electric vehicles and the outlook for next year
Speaker 3: because it's changing. This is Friday session. Tesla's higher half
Speaker 3: a percentage point the other names in the red. GM
Speaker 3: is cutting thirteen hundred workers across two factories in Michigan.
Speaker 3: But what all of these stocks have in common were
Speaker 3: the top three at least, is that they're all on
Speaker 3: track for six straight weeks of weekly gains. In GM's case,
Speaker 3: that's the best run of weekly gains going back to
Speaker 3: December twenty fourteen. I bring that up because there's been
Speaker 3: so much negative news, all the data about revised outlooks
Speaker 3: for next year, Cruise, the autonomous driving unit of GM
Speaker 3: being in trouble, Tesla's autopilot probe, and the Recoll Soft
Speaker 3: recall and software update this week. But if you extrapolate
Speaker 3: out these ev stocks have been on a tear at
Speaker 3: the same time as the S and P five hundred
Speaker 3: and Nasdaq one hundred are on their longest and best
Speaker 3: streaks in a decade. Then there's in Video. I think
Speaker 3: in Video is still the big focus for this mark.
Speaker 3: The gain is more than two hundred and thirty percent
Speaker 3: year to date. The news in Friday session was a
Speaker 3: block trade of more than a billion dollars on the
Speaker 3: stop that traded at a pretty lofty level. Seems to
Speaker 3: be having an impact on the market, But again two
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty six percent gain year to date. It
Speaker 3: has been a big contributing factor to the rally that
Speaker 3: we've seen in the Nasdaq one hundred and the S
Speaker 3: and P five hundred. And the question is, well, what
Speaker 3: happens if Nvidia just stops in its momentum halts? Would it?
Speaker 4: Should it?
Speaker 2: Nancy Kurtin is the person to be asking, Global COO
Speaker 2: of Ulti tenam and Global. A lot of money under management,
Speaker 2: a lot of working through what has been decades of
Speaker 2: whether we see money and exuberance into tech or not.
Speaker 2: From your perspective, are the valuations of a name like
Speaker 2: in video rational at this moment?
Speaker 1: Look, Caroline, they certainly discount a lot, that's for sure,
Speaker 1: at more than thirty times earnings on average. And I
Speaker 1: think one of the things we're seeing now is competition
Speaker 1: to in video. You know, a copy has an eighty
Speaker 1: five percent monopoly, saw their profits go up seven times
Speaker 1: in a year, and is facing a trillion dollar market opportunity.
Speaker 1: We should expect competition, and so far, I think when
Speaker 1: we look at what Intel an AMD have brought to
Speaker 1: the table from a hardware perspective, it looks pleasing. But
Speaker 1: Nvidia has quite a competitive mode in terms of Kuda
Speaker 1: software developer tools, etc. So you know, there is a
Speaker 1: lot to go for in jen Ai. And don't be
Speaker 1: don't be so quick to do work to put down these.
Speaker 3: Valuations, Nancy. We have covered that competition so deeply on
Speaker 3: the program in the last two weeks, starting with amdsm
Speaker 3: I three hundred X. I was there on the ground
Speaker 3: with Lisa Sue twenty four hours ago. You have Intel
Speaker 3: talking about GUDI three. What is the investment strategy. Do
Speaker 3: you just pick one of those names go with it
Speaker 3: or do you need to have all three in the portfolio.
Speaker 1: Look, I think you're going to have to see how
Speaker 1: this evolves. Remember, neither of these chips are available at
Speaker 1: the moment, So if you're a company building a Genai application,
Speaker 1: it's still h one hundred, it's still the Nvidia chip.
Speaker 1: And by the way, Nvidia is not going to stand
Speaker 1: still here. You know they've got things on the horizon,
Speaker 1: a very aggressive product launch as we head into twenty
Speaker 1: four and twenty five. You know B one hundred aka Blackwell,
Speaker 1: So you know, let's not write off the Nvidia dvantage.
Speaker 1: But as I said, their software ecosystem, Kuda in particular
Speaker 1: is super powerful for in video, moving.
Speaker 2: Away from pats, the picks and the shovels the chips
Speaker 2: to actually who are building the models, who's applying the
Speaker 2: models most efficiently. It's been all about Microsoft ascend degree
Speaker 2: and starting to be alphabet Do you think we need
Speaker 2: to broaden our perspective there as well? How it's starting
Speaker 2: to see Generator AI and PATA business models.
Speaker 1: Do you know? I think there was a lot of
Speaker 1: criticism of Gemini, which course was Google's launch around two
Speaker 1: weeks ago, around latency issues, etc. Okay, put that aside.
Speaker 1: I think it misses the point. What we saw with
Speaker 1: Google was multimodal. I mean that interaction had inference, it
Speaker 1: had text, it had image, it had translation, it had
Speaker 1: coding all at once. So I think it gives you
Speaker 1: a future image of where this jenai is going. As
Speaker 1: you watch that silly thing with the guitar and the duck,
Speaker 1: do see it? If you haven't seen it, you know
Speaker 1: you need to think about the applications and financial services
Speaker 1: in healthcare, in the industrial sector. This is absolutely huge.
Speaker 1: And you know I reckon as I was watching it, Caroline,
Speaker 1: that you know maybe twenty six, twenty seven, maybe twenty eight.
Speaker 1: We're going to look at the mouse, the keyboard. I
Speaker 1: don't know what are those things like as in history,
Speaker 1: prehistoric stuff, right, because you're going to be able to
Speaker 1: interact with the computer in a completely different way and
Speaker 1: the coding language is going to be English, So lots
Speaker 1: of interesting implications.
Speaker 3: Nancy, We're thoroughly enjoying this conversation. One of the things
Speaker 3: I was so interested about you is earlier in your
Speaker 3: career you ran venture capital desks private equity desks, and
Speaker 3: I wonder if that changes your approach as a CIO
Speaker 3: when you look across public equities. Are you kind of
Speaker 3: conscious of what's happening upstream in some of the earliest
Speaker 3: stage companies who might benefit from what Caroline I call
Speaker 3: the picks and shovels, Right, the H one hundred's underpinning
Speaker 3: the work in the R and D.
Speaker 1: You know absolutely. So you know, we have investments in
Speaker 1: both public and private markets, and on the private side,
Speaker 1: I want to share with you a snippet one of
Speaker 1: our private equity managers, so now we're talking about buyout
Speaker 1: reports that every single one of their companies is using
Speaker 1: Jenai in some form and they are seeing productivity enhancements
Speaker 1: of thirty to forty percent. That's huge, okay, and that's
Speaker 1: in private equity buyout and the venture side. Our managers
Speaker 1: are reporting enormously interesting applications, disruptive business models, horizontal u
Speaker 1: U of Genai, vertical uses of Jenai. So there is
Speaker 1: so much more to come here. We're aware of what's
Speaker 1: going on with the infrastructure layer, as you mentioned, but
Speaker 1: once we get past that twenty four and into twenty five,
Speaker 1: expect a whole host of disruptive business models and more importantly,
Speaker 1: business applications. We're going to go to work and this
Speaker 1: will be embedded in business processes, and we're still early
Speaker 1: in that journey so far this year.
Speaker 2: So, boy, when you're thinking about allocating and as global
Speaker 2: CIO of what is sixty seven million dollars worth of money,
Speaker 2: where do you go private versus public? Where do you
Speaker 2: think the valuations and more sustainable? Where has the pain
Speaker 2: been felt? Necessarily?
Speaker 4: So already?
Speaker 1: So, first of all, everything we do is customized to clients,
Speaker 1: and so it has to meet their return, their risk,
Speaker 1: their liquidity preference. Because obviously private equity and venture capital
Speaker 1: come with the longer term time horizon, so it has
Speaker 1: to be appropriate to client circumstance. But having said that,
Speaker 1: we do recommend for those clients that it's appropriate to
Speaker 1: have their foot in both the public and the private markets.
Speaker 1: Remember the public markets today in the United States, thirty
Speaker 1: percent of the index is seven companies, pretty concentrated, pretty
Speaker 1: highly correlated to those seven stocks, etc. Although we think
Speaker 1: the other four hundred and ninety three represent some good
Speaker 1: value here. But nonetheless you're able to play a whole
Speaker 1: host of different parts of the economy, different parts of companies,
Speaker 1: disruptive companies, core businesses. Remember there's forty thousand so called
Speaker 1: private companies in the States today. What do we have
Speaker 1: fifteen hundred public companies? So you can see you're not
Speaker 1: really accessing the full part of the economy. So again,
Speaker 1: for clients where it's appropriate, we do look like both
Speaker 1: public and private markets. Then we do believe that the
Speaker 1: long term return from private equity, buyout, growth and venture
Speaker 1: can be quite substantial.
Speaker 4: Do you come back. It's been great to have you on, Nancy.
Speaker 4: Thank you so much.
Speaker 2: Nasi keasan human global we thank her. I mean, while
Speaker 2: coming up elon Musk's potential AI dominance, We're gonna stick
Speaker 2: on the AI theme and talk about excess grock how
Speaker 2: might overtake chatchipt This is blameleog technology.
Speaker 4: So Elon Musk's.
Speaker 2: Groc Ai platform might actually be a pretty major contender
Speaker 2: in the battle for chatbot dominance.
Speaker 4: Remerg Seth Biingman joins us.
Speaker 2: Now to explain what is perhaps it's outperformance in an
Speaker 2: area of real time news.
Speaker 4: How's it going?
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's right. I think that when this thing first launched,
Speaker 5: no one wanted to take it seriously. I mean a
Speaker 5: lot of the promotion around this was that it was irreverent, profane.
Speaker 5: If you looked on the Twitter account they set up
Speaker 5: for its highlighted post, it was mostly making bad jokes
Speaker 5: about how babies are born. But when we I rolled
Speaker 5: out more broadly this week to anyone willing to pay
Speaker 5: sixteen dollars to X for a premium account, which is
Speaker 5: certainly a limiting factor for how big it'll get, and
Speaker 5: when we looked at it, we saw a quite good
Speaker 5: for a real time news. It has access to Twitter's
Speaker 5: real time pipeline of digga, and Twitter has I should
Speaker 5: keep saying, X has cracked down and access to that
Speaker 5: data for other companies, So it's kind of unique at
Speaker 5: this point. It's when we asked the summarize whether the
Speaker 5: climate debates in Dubai or looking at Opening Eyes data
Speaker 5: licensing partnerships, we saw that it was more accurate up
Speaker 5: full time than chatchy bt mborn.
Speaker 3: So sef I asked a very basic question on grok
Speaker 3: this morning, who am I? Who is Ed Ludlow, and
Speaker 3: GROC does have a more contemporaneous, up to date answer
Speaker 3: than chat GPT, and chat GPT basically said, my data
Speaker 3: is relevant as of jan twenty twenty two. Make sure
Speaker 3: you actually go and check an original source. But it
Speaker 3: doesn't get it all right, because when I asked it
Speaker 3: to tell me about Bloomberg Technology, it told me that
Speaker 3: Emily Chang, dear friend by the way, is still the
Speaker 3: host along with Corey Johnson. That's pretty out of date.
Speaker 3: The point is this is about the how recent the
Speaker 3: data it was trained on is right.
Speaker 5: That's right, kicking myself from not asking it who ed lewis,
Speaker 5: but I'm glad that you got to that question. I
Speaker 5: think the important thing to keep in mind here at
Speaker 5: a higher level, is that there's a real arms where
Speaker 5: he's going on right now, not just for how chadbods
Speaker 5: perform day to day, but how they can access and
Speaker 5: answer questions in real time. It's so central to Google
Speaker 5: and to Microsoft in particular to build a surface real
Speaker 5: time information. And what we're seeing is like, if you're
Speaker 5: built on top of a social media platform, you have
Speaker 5: a better shot at that. The flip side, as you're
Speaker 5: pointing to, is that they're surfacing content from tweets and
Speaker 5: accounts that may not be as authoritive of So that's
Speaker 5: the problem.
Speaker 3: Seth Figmun, who leads our AI coverages editor And as
Speaker 3: we saw in that clip, Lindy Akarinho actually replied to
Speaker 3: my post saying rock for the win, but then she
Speaker 3: didn't see the post where it gave the wrong answer.
Speaker 3: We keep guying Bloomberg. Seth Figmann, thank you so much. Okay.
Speaker 3: Another story in Elon Musk's world, a San Francisco judge
Speaker 3: has signaled that Musk must testify about his Twitter stock
Speaker 3: purchases ahead of the company buy out last year. This
Speaker 3: is part of an SEC investigation in joining us now
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Austin Weinstein in Washington. The judge is basically saying,
Speaker 3: if you two can't sort out getting together and talking
Speaker 3: then I will intervene.
Speaker 6: Yeah, the judge made it pretty clear that she seemed
Speaker 6: that to be in the position that she was going
Speaker 6: to a way in favor of the SEC here in
Speaker 6: enforcing their subpoena. It's very rare for the SEC to
Speaker 6: get a no show on it subpoena like Elan did
Speaker 6: earlier this year. It's very rare for them to sue
Speaker 6: to enforce that subpoena.
Speaker 4: And it's even more rare for the SEC.
Speaker 6: To lose in court on a bid to enforce a subpoena.
Speaker 2: Okay, so chances perhaps old on his side for this.
Speaker 2: He does feel though that he's already answered an awful
Speaker 2: lot of questions, not once, but twice. Is there any
Speaker 2: sort of well context to this where we've seen people
Speaker 2: have to come in and give evidence time and time
Speaker 2: and time again, there's a lot of.
Speaker 6: Situations when in an SEC investigation they ask more questions
Speaker 6: the facts of this investigation, which is one of a
Speaker 6: number into Elon Musk's companies go back to his purchase
Speaker 6: of Twitter, when he bought up a large stake when
Speaker 6: the company was pot private, and so they interviewed him
Speaker 6: close to his purchase of Twitter and then earlier this year,
Speaker 6: they did their investigation, they talked to a whole lot
Speaker 6: of people, and they wanted to come back to Elon
Speaker 6: and say, hey, we have some more questions. Let's sit
Speaker 6: down and have a conversation and get your testimony here.
Speaker 6: And basically the SEC said that he played you know,
Speaker 6: catch me if you can, and tried to play fast
Speaker 6: and loose with the location and then move the date,
Speaker 6: and the SEC just kind of got sick of it.
Speaker 6: But it's fairly normal for them to go back to
Speaker 6: what they would think is a key witness, you know,
Speaker 6: the CEO, the guy who bought the company eventually and
Speaker 6: asked some more questions after doing that investigation.
Speaker 2: I meanwhile, Musk currently feeling in it's harassment by the SEC.
Speaker 4: According to a filing, Austin weisteeing.
Speaker 2: Me thank you so much for the background on order.
Speaker 3: That time for talking tech and first up in the
Speaker 3: news crew. Trim, an ai startup founded by LA founder
Speaker 3: babvish Agorole, has launched India's first multi lingual LM, which
Speaker 3: can generate text in ten Indian languages. The startup is
Speaker 3: also developing data centers and aims to create servers and
Speaker 3: supercomputers for an AI ecosystem, and Google is changing its
Speaker 3: maps tools so that the company no longer has access
Speaker 3: to users individual location histories. This effectively cuts off its
Speaker 3: ability to respond to law enforcement warrants that ask for
Speaker 3: data on everyone who is in the vicinity of a crime. Plus,
Speaker 3: an examination of FDA records shows the administration is doing
Speaker 3: little to cut down on misleading drug claims on social media,
Speaker 3: despite having the power to oversee prescription drug marketing. For decades,
Speaker 3: the FDA has regulated advertising on television, radio, and in magazines.
Speaker 3: It released guideline into social media in twenty fourteen, but
Speaker 3: since then it's done little to regulate influence influencers sorry,
Speaker 3: who may or may not have had direct ties to
Speaker 3: those manufacturers.
Speaker 2: Caroline, Yeah, that's an interesting one, and we want to
Speaker 2: broaden that sort of a conversation and think about how
Speaker 2: the FTC is tackling it, because it's actually issued a
Speaker 2: warning and some letters to beverage companies and influencers on
Speaker 2: potential violations of the FDC Act in their social posts
Speaker 2: on Instagram and TikTok, where they aren't is accused adequately
Speaker 2: disclosing their payment by the industry and as they promote
Speaker 2: the safety of in particular artificial sweetener or the consumption
Speaker 2: of sugar containing products for example, joining us to discuss
Speaker 2: all of this and what regulation could in fact becoming
Speaker 2: their way when it comes to AI and influencing is
Speaker 2: Mary Angel is just the former Director of the Revision
Speaker 2: of Advertising Practices at the FTC, currently serving as a
Speaker 2: Senior Vice president for the Policy actuble B. That's PBB
Speaker 2: National Programs.
Speaker 4: Mary.
Speaker 2: It's a really interesting one. What weren't influencers doing because
Speaker 2: they seem to be saying hashtag ad or sponsor, But
Speaker 2: is that not enough in this context?
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's really interesting that the FTC was saying here
Speaker 7: that it wasn't enough even if you had a big
Speaker 7: bald ad or sponsored disclaim around your post, because it
Speaker 7: wasn't clear in this case who the sponsor was. Now,
Speaker 7: typically a brand product will appear in a post, so
Speaker 7: you know.
Speaker 4: Who it is.
Speaker 7: But in this case they were talking about sugar artificial
Speaker 7: sweeteners as pertame, and the FDC said, look, consumers don't
Speaker 7: know who the sponsor is, so you've got.
Speaker 2: To say who that is, Okay, So more disclosure and
Speaker 2: ultimately whether a beverage company is behind your post and
Speaker 2: what's led you to do the posting. How ultimately is
Speaker 2: the FTC and others able to keep a track of this,
Speaker 2: How are we going to be monitoring? Is it up
Speaker 2: to individual consumers to be saying that this influencer hasn't
Speaker 2: been clear and or are they going to adopt uses
Speaker 2: of AI for this sort of program.
Speaker 7: That's a good question. I could see the FTC adapting
Speaker 7: AI to kind of scour a social media for a post.
Speaker 1: But typically absolutely.
Speaker 7: The FTC will pay attention if consumers are complaining at
Speaker 7: their aren't disclosures.
Speaker 4: A lot of times it'll be a.
Speaker 7: Media report, and I think in this case it was
Speaker 7: the Washington Post did a report on how these influencers
Speaker 7: were not properly disclosing.
Speaker 2: What ends up being the stick in this particular example,
Speaker 2: as it finds, is it what does the FTC end
Speaker 2: up exerting.
Speaker 7: Yeah, So in this case, the FTC sent warning letters
Speaker 7: to all these influencers and to the American Beverage Association
Speaker 7: and Canadian Sugar Institute and said here, look, this is
Speaker 7: what you should be doing, here's what you didn't do
Speaker 7: it right and put and gave them notice of a
Speaker 7: penalty they're a penalty offense authority, which means that the
Speaker 7: FTC would have the ability to find or impose civil
Speaker 7: penalties if there are future violations, and say.
Speaker 2: I'm the corporate coming to you who you know. They
Speaker 2: haven't always got the most fine detailed control over an influencer.
Speaker 4: How they meant to ensure.
Speaker 2: That the way in which their messaging is going out
Speaker 2: and the influences they used to work with are abiding
Speaker 2: by new FTC regulation.
Speaker 7: So there are three things they should do. First is
Speaker 7: they should have written policies, and the policy should be
Speaker 7: pretty detailed.
Speaker 4: Don't just say.
Speaker 7: Comply with the FTC's endorsement guides. Say that, but also
Speaker 7: highlight the important provisions that are important for influencers, like
Speaker 7: clear and conspicuous disclosures and explain what that means, things
Speaker 7: like don't rely on platform disclosures. And then second, have
Speaker 7: an active monitoring program periodically review what your influencers are
Speaker 7: posting to make sure that they're doing it right. And then, third,
Speaker 7: if they're not doing it right, warn them, and then
Speaker 7: ultimately don't use them anymore if they insist upon posting
Speaker 7: without doing proper disclosures.
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, of course, the FTC has been busy, to say
Speaker 2: the least, and they are trying to wrap their hands
Speaker 2: around ultimately relationships between for example, well Open AI and
Speaker 2: Microsoft and the way in which consumers are going to
Speaker 2: be protected in this new age.
Speaker 4: Of official intelligence.
Speaker 2: How have you been looking at that as a new
Speaker 2: area of focus and concern?
Speaker 7: Yeah, so absolutely there's an opportunity here for responsible businesses
Speaker 7: to get ahead of regulation and come together and to
Speaker 7: exercise independent industry self regulation. And what I mean by
Speaker 7: that is to establish clear standards with monitoring and public
Speaker 7: reporting and to comply with those standards. Industry has a
Speaker 7: good idea of what the government is looking for right now.
Speaker 7: It's going to take some time for there to be
Speaker 7: legislation or regulation, and there's a real opportunity for businesses
Speaker 7: to show leadership by engaging in robust industry self regulation
Speaker 7: with accountability. And there's got to be a third party
Speaker 7: to hold them accountable to complying with their standards. We
Speaker 7: don't want companies to grade their own homework, so we
Speaker 7: need a third party to oversee compliance.
Speaker 2: And is that what BBB National Programs ends up being
Speaker 2: or where at the moment have companies turned to for
Speaker 2: this sort of compliance ahead of regulation becoming formal.
Speaker 7: Absolutely so BBB National Programs. We are a nonprofit that
Speaker 7: promotes marketplace trust by providing those sorts of independent, third
Speaker 7: party self regulatory and accountability programs in all sorts of
Speaker 7: different industries, advertising privacy and Earlier this year we release
Speaker 7: Principles and Protocols for the ethical use of AI in
Speaker 7: hiring and recruiting. We worked with about a dozen and
Speaker 7: a half large employers to come up with principles for
Speaker 7: here is how to use AI ethically to mitigate bias
Speaker 7: and to actually promote inclusion in the workforce. Knowing that
Speaker 7: eventually government may regulate there, but there's lots of companies
Speaker 7: can and should be doing even before that time.
Speaker 2: And look New York already in many ways regulating yes,
Speaker 2: AIS applied to the world of work.
Speaker 4: We thank you so much, Mary angel.
Speaker 2: Gait to have you BBB National Programs, of course, formerly
Speaker 2: at the FTC itself at what if you.
Speaker 3: Got that's that one hundreds taken It's year today gay
Speaker 3: beyond fifty percent now at fifty two percent for the year.
Speaker 3: There are so many superlatives. This is the eighth street
Speaker 3: straight week of weekly gains on the NASDAQ one hundred
Speaker 3: longest street of weekly gains going back to July of
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one. The S and P five hundred, of
Speaker 3: course also outperforming. Lots of moves into the technology sector,
Speaker 3: and as we discussed earlier in the show, there are
Speaker 3: a few names that are driving that, in video being one.
Speaker 3: What's interesting is that some of the moves in some
Speaker 3: corners of the technology sector, if you want to call it,
Speaker 3: that are at odds with the news flow, and that's
Speaker 3: why we're looking so closely at the EV makers. Many
Speaker 3: of the legacy OEMs GM and Ford, for example, but
Speaker 3: also Tesla, are on track for their sixth straight week
Speaker 3: of weekly gains. In GM's case, that's the best run
Speaker 3: of weekly gains going back to December twenty fourteen. But
Speaker 3: the news flow has been so negative. Think about GM
Speaker 3: overnight cutting thirteen hundred jobs across two plants in Michigan,
Speaker 3: some of those relating to evs in the Orion plant,
Speaker 3: for example, Chevy Bolt was due to be the place
Speaker 3: where the electric pickups are coming twenty twenty five. Tesla
Speaker 3: the autopilot recoll soft recall and date a software update
Speaker 3: this week. Not really any slowing down of the mentum
Speaker 3: behind these names. It's interesting. And then there's the outlook
Speaker 3: for this next year which doesn't look as bright.
Speaker 2: It doesn't And let's dig into some of the outlooks
Speaker 2: that were getting from our own internal analysis, because we're right,
Speaker 2: the EV outlook is just not where it was six
Speaker 2: months ago, and the US seems to be largely to
Speaker 2: blame that. There's this overarching takeaway from Lumberg, Neeslitus Electricied
Speaker 2: Transport market outlook. It's got three companies in particular that
Speaker 2: are worth bearing in mind for much of the culpability.
Speaker 4: GM for Tesla.
Speaker 2: Let's dig into really what statistics are telling us Plumes
Speaker 2: Cragatrudell is staying late for us in London to talk
Speaker 2: it through, and why it's under the exuberance dialing back
Speaker 2: in how much demand there is for EV's.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think this is a very different case for
Speaker 8: these three companies where you can sort of put GM
Speaker 8: and Forward together in that you know, in BNF's words,
Speaker 8: they're lacking in ambition, and I think I would add
Speaker 8: to that sort of lacking an execution. They are sort
Speaker 8: of dialing back their ambitions because they you know, set
Speaker 8: these really you know ambitious targets for EV sales that
Speaker 8: just have not come to pass, and I think there's
Speaker 8: there's been some you know, sort of self inflicted wounds
Speaker 8: here and mistakes that they've made. With GM struggling to
Speaker 8: ramp up the ultium platform that was going to underpin
Speaker 8: its new evs Ford, I think, you know, kind of
Speaker 8: cut some corners maybe with the F one fifty Lightning
Speaker 8: to try and get that to market quickly. And then
Speaker 8: you have a very different story with Tesla, where they've
Speaker 8: been kind of you know, carrying the water for the
Speaker 8: industry in the US, at least in terms of, you know,
Speaker 8: really dominating that market from an EV perspective. We're at
Speaker 8: a point now where they just have not refreshed the
Speaker 8: lineup enough to where, you know, the Model Y has
Speaker 8: been out since twenty twenty, the Model three since you know,
Speaker 8: twenty seventeen eighteen, and the cyber truck is just not
Speaker 8: going to be a high volume model for them anytime soon.
Speaker 8: So where is the growth going to come from? When you've,
Speaker 8: you know, for years, really has some impressive sales of
Speaker 8: these models, but they're starting to show their age a
Speaker 8: little bit.
Speaker 3: I think what's so interesting is you have to think
Speaker 3: globally about this. So let's dig into that idea that
Speaker 3: the US is largely responsible for the revision because there
Speaker 3: are markets around the world Europe, China where the data
Speaker 3: shows a different picture. Just give us the top line,
Speaker 3: What should we expect for the EV market in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty four globally?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think BNF is still dialing back globally as well.
Speaker 8: As we've talked about, you know, the US is where
Speaker 8: the sort of you know, brun of of the reductions
Speaker 8: are coming from. But you are seeing a little bit
Speaker 8: of dialing back here in Europe. I think that's partly
Speaker 8: to do with the fact that you know, vw A,
Speaker 8: in a sort of similar fashion to GM and FORD
Speaker 8: are having some execution issues. I think it's more so
Speaker 8: related to their software in their evs as opposed to
Speaker 8: the evs themselves having you know, problems with battery and whatnot.
Speaker 8: But you've seen some you know pulling back of production
Speaker 8: plans for a VW I think in China, even it's
Speaker 8: a market that has you know, absolutely dominated on the
Speaker 8: global stage, some concerns about the sort of overall strength
Speaker 8: of the economy in China are whack thereof that, you know,
Speaker 8: maybe is putting a bit of a damper on the
Speaker 8: outlook for twenty twenty four, and that's causing BNF to
Speaker 8: get a little bit more conservative in terms of how
Speaker 8: they're thinking about next year.
Speaker 3: It is Friday. Let's end it on a happy note
Speaker 3: and point out that in the chart we just showed,
Speaker 3: BNF also expects the first five million unit quarter to
Speaker 3: come by the end of twenty twenty four. There is
Speaker 3: some hope. Craig Bloombo's Craig Drudel, our Global Auto's editor
Speaker 3: out of London, thank you so much. There's more to
Speaker 3: talk about. Let's keep a conversation going with Michelle Kreb's
Speaker 3: executive analyst at Cox Automotive, which also just published it's
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four Auto and EV forecast today. You heard
Speaker 3: the Bloomberg n EF forecast. Explain to us your forecast
Speaker 3: for next year.
Speaker 9: Well, I think our forecast is that we've gone from
Speaker 9: this really rosy forecast, probably overly ambitious, to reality and
Speaker 9: look for a bigger picture. We don't anticipate overall car
Speaker 9: sales in the US to go up all that much,
Speaker 9: maybe two hundred thousand units next year. So yet We
Speaker 9: still anticipate that the EV market will increase. We think
Speaker 9: it'll maybe be around ten percent of the total market.
Speaker 9: It was like eight percent this year, but you know,
Speaker 9: it's an overall market that's kind of stabilizing. To the
Speaker 9: other thing is you know, we're going to have to
Speaker 9: start really trying to sell evs, not just expect people
Speaker 9: to order them.
Speaker 2: And therefore give us your expertise on like a marketing advice.
Speaker 2: Now to these companies, is it about getting over the
Speaker 2: worry that ultimately you're not gonna be able to find
Speaker 2: the charging unit when you need it, not gonna be
Speaker 2: able to make the miles that you want, or are
Speaker 2: we over that as a consumer? Is it more about
Speaker 2: price point, about just not really seeing the urgency of
Speaker 2: switching to EV.
Speaker 9: We are not over any of that. You know, we
Speaker 9: still do not have The US is a lot bigger
Speaker 9: than some of the smaller European nations, and so we
Speaker 9: do not have this expansive EV charging infrastructure. It's growing,
Speaker 9: and it's it's stronger in certain places than it is others.
Speaker 9: So that still is a huge concern and that has
Speaker 9: to be overcome if we're going to have massive EV adoption.
Speaker 9: Price is an issue, although we are seeing some very
Speaker 9: nice incentives on EV's so that then there will be
Speaker 9: more discounting. About a year ago they were ten thousand,
Speaker 9: the average was ten thousand dollars more than it is now,
Speaker 9: So we will see more price competition and we will
Speaker 9: see less expensive evs coming into the market, so that
Speaker 9: should help too. But we're now going to the mainstream buyer,
Speaker 9: and that's going to take more education, more handholding to
Speaker 9: convince people to buy evs.
Speaker 3: Michelle, wo'd be grateful for your reaction to two recent
Speaker 3: and important pieces of news. The first was Ford cutting
Speaker 3: in half its planned production for the F one to
Speaker 3: fifty Lightning in twenty twenty four to a run rate
Speaker 3: of about sixteen hundred units a week from thirty two hundred,
Speaker 3: and then overnight GM cutting thirteen hundred jobs, nine hundred
Speaker 3: and forty five at Oryan where they make for now
Speaker 3: the Chevy Bolt, and then twenty twenty five plan to
Speaker 3: make the pickup. What does that tell you.
Speaker 9: Well, first of all, on the very different stories on
Speaker 9: General Motors, we knew this was going to happen. They
Speaker 9: announced some time ago they were going to end production
Speaker 9: of the Chevrolet Bolt we call it the Orion plant
Speaker 9: here and that endsize. That's okay, it ends next week.
Speaker 9: And then they were going to immediately start retooling for
Speaker 9: the electric pickup trucks, but they have postponed that a
Speaker 9: little bit, so they've pushed that more back into the future.
Speaker 9: And then there was there are they're eliminating the Chevrolet Camaro,
Speaker 9: which may come back in some different forms. So we
Speaker 9: knew those the Ford lightning plant. They had expanded that plant,
Speaker 9: probably got a little too ambitious on their expectations, and
Speaker 9: as Craig said, some execution problems and so they've had
Speaker 9: to scale back. They've got mounting inventory of the lightning
Speaker 9: just fascinating.
Speaker 2: We're always so grateful when we get your decades of
Speaker 2: experience and expertise, Michelle.
Speaker 4: We thank you for it.
Speaker 2: Michellekrab's executive analysts at Cox Automotive, have a wonderful weekend.
Speaker 3: Pair VC, a pre seed and C stage venture capital
Speaker 3: firm based in Menlo Park, is opening per studio set
Speaker 3: for thirty thousand square foot space in San Francisco. There
Speaker 3: will serve as a home for tech founders in a
Speaker 3: spiring entrepreneurs Pedgeman knows that CO founder and founding managing
Speaker 3: partner of PAIRBC is with me here on Satin San Francisco.
Speaker 3: This is a big commitment, imagine a big financial commitment
Speaker 3: to a space that can be home to they're not
Speaker 3: even founders because in some cases haven't even started a
Speaker 3: company yet. Why you do that, Yes, that's true.
Speaker 10: So, as you mentioned, it's a thirty thousand square foot
Speaker 10: state of the art office here. It's a brand new building,
Speaker 10: two hundred and twenty five desks and over twenty conference rooms.
Speaker 10: We're going to host speaker cities, workshops, social events, hackatons,
Speaker 10: and really a platform profounders to learn and grow. But
Speaker 10: this has been always a strategy for us. In fact,
Speaker 10: our very first office, which we opened in twenty thirteen,
Speaker 10: was at home two thousand steps away from Stanford University,
Speaker 10: so we hosted many students there and the event on
Speaker 10: and build many startups, including a few multi billion dollars companies.
Speaker 10: So it's a core strategy for us, and I think
Speaker 10: I'm at the heart of starf option. It's easy to
Speaker 10: see that buildings are empty in San Francisco, but I
Speaker 10: think quite a bit opposite. I actually think startup becausism
Speaker 10: is boiling especially at early stage.
Speaker 3: Well, it's a classic Silicon Valley and indeed classic San
Speaker 3: Francisco story, Right, you only need go down to Hayes
Speaker 3: Valley and see the laptops that people are working on
Speaker 3: together in a coffee shop. But you also have some
Speaker 3: selfish motivation, right, which is that if you have this
Speaker 3: large body of people through your doors, you get right
Speaker 3: of first refusal to invest in them.
Speaker 10: I completely agree. I think we want to see founders
Speaker 10: before anybody else, and we want to be the first
Speaker 10: investor before friends and family around. So we're gonna and
Speaker 10: actually you won't believe that how many calls we got
Speaker 10: from incredible entrepreneurs. They want to be at the office soon,
Speaker 10: so we are very excited about it.
Speaker 2: What's interesting is you're supporting them with boot camps for example.
Speaker 2: You've also got a female founder circle. How are you
Speaker 2: laying the groundwork to ensure that we see diversity among
Speaker 2: those that are building these businesses at this time?
Speaker 10: Yeah, as I mentioned, it's very important for us diversity.
Speaker 10: One of our program female founder Circles. In fact, every
Speaker 10: year we select eighty two hundred top female engineers who
Speaker 10: are leaving big tech companies academia startups and wants to
Speaker 10: start a startup and it's a free program for fifteen weeks.
Speaker 10: Same concept. We give him office, we give them access
Speaker 10: to our team, we bring speakers, workshops, and hopefully we
Speaker 10: can invest in these companies.
Speaker 4: And that's the key.
Speaker 10: Is like when you build a community, you have to
Speaker 10: give before you get, and we always provide many resources
Speaker 10: before we even start, and we build that trust throughout
Speaker 10: the months that we're working with them.
Speaker 2: And maybe it's why, of course you've become some of
Speaker 2: the top investors in straor Dash and drop Box and
Speaker 2: some of the other success stories that companies eventually go
Speaker 2: in public.
Speaker 4: I'm interested pagerement.
Speaker 2: You're saying you're trying to attract talent that is leaving
Speaker 2: well working in engineering for some of the big tech companies.
Speaker 2: How many people are still leaving? How many people do
Speaker 2: still want to go and build things at this moment.
Speaker 10: You know, I've never seen startups ecosystem as vibrant us today.
Speaker 10: You know, you can hear news about growth stage companies
Speaker 10: and public market, but I actually think the recent development
Speaker 10: in jen Ai is just allowing entrepreneurs to build product
Speaker 10: faster and get quicker feedback from the companies. So I
Speaker 10: think the product cycle is it's a lot faster than before.
Speaker 10: And I actually see people are coming back to San
Speaker 10: Francisco from New York, Austin and Los Angeles. Nobody wants
Speaker 10: to miss the AI revolution. I won't be surprised in
Speaker 10: the next wave of public companies in tech there are
Speaker 10: less than five to seven years old and versus today
Speaker 10: you see ten to twenty years old.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 10: I see some of the companies that they're reached twenty
Speaker 10: million dollars revenue.
Speaker 4: In less than six months.
Speaker 10: It's just the mind buggling that how fast companies can
Speaker 10: grow today. At the same time, obviously there's a lot
Speaker 10: of high pron AI So that's a separate conversation and.
Speaker 4: Is Satay, we have to get you back for it.
Speaker 2: But kind of music to some of those LPs is
Speaker 2: certainly some of those bankers is as well. If we
Speaker 2: start to see younger IPOs, we thank you. Pressure and
Speaker 2: knows that, and he's of course co founder and founding
Speaker 2: managing partner of peir VC.
Speaker 4: Thank you.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the X Prize Foundation, ed nonprofit that
Speaker 2: fund scientific research, says it will award to get this
Speaker 2: one hundred and one million dollars to anti aging research.
Speaker 2: It's a topic that is often dismissed as some sort
Speaker 2: of unrealistic quest for the fountain of youth. But the
Speaker 2: award is the largest in the history of the foundation.
Speaker 2: I'm please to welcome Peter Diamandis to the show, founder
Speaker 2: of X Prize and the author of the new book
Speaker 2: called Longevity, exploring of course, the practices around longevity and
Speaker 2: the tech and therapeutics trends around vitality and health span.
Speaker 2: You join us now and Peter talk to us about
Speaker 2: this isn't just some quest to forever be young or
Speaker 2: feel young, but this is actually also an economic reality
Speaker 2: that the pressure of aging is becoming gargantuan.
Speaker 11: Yeah, Caroline, aging is hitting our economy as people growing older.
Speaker 11: The challenges While we've extended our lifespan, we've not extended
Speaker 11: our health span, and so unfortunately the last ten to
Speaker 11: fifteen years of people's lives can be expensive. It can
Speaker 11: be a drain on family. This isn't only the largest
Speaker 11: X Prize ever, and we've X Prize, we've rolled out
Speaker 11: four hundred million dollars in incentive competitions, right, not awarding
Speaker 11: something that was done years ago asking teams to achieve
Speaker 11: a goal and the first person to achieve it wins.
Speaker 11: It's the largest prize ever in human history, one hundred
Speaker 11: and one million dollars, funded by some incredible benefactors, Evolution
Speaker 11: in Chip Wilson. It is asking teams to reverse the
Speaker 11: ravages of aging. So the team that wins this has
Speaker 11: to demonstrate a therapeutic that, when delivered within one year,
Speaker 11: can give you your muscular strength, your cognitive clarity, and your
Speaker 11: immune function that you had at least ten years ago
Speaker 11: and as many as twenty years ago. We're trying to
Speaker 11: restore function, so those last twenty years of life are
Speaker 11: at your peak capability. I for one, think can go
Speaker 11: a lot further, but you know, we're setting a target
Speaker 11: we think is audacious but achievable.
Speaker 3: Pete in the X Prize is history. Which winner do
Speaker 3: you think has had the biggest impact on a specific
Speaker 3: piece of technology or a whole industry?
Speaker 11: Well, that's that's a great question. So we've launched, like
Speaker 11: I said, four hundred million dollars in competitions. Our first one,
Speaker 11: you know, nearest and dearest to my heart, was the
Speaker 11: ten million dollar I'm sorry X Prize for Spaceflight is
Speaker 11: a ten million dollar competition. Yeah, and it really lit
Speaker 11: the fuse. I mean, I'm a nine year old kid
Speaker 11: who wants to travel to space and I want to
Speaker 11: live longer, healthier, so I can go and get to
Speaker 11: the Moon, get to Mars, get to the asteroid belt,
Speaker 11: wherever it might be. But it changed the rules and
Speaker 11: regulations for spaceflight. It brought capital, and it ignited you
Speaker 11: know what is now, you know, a multi hundred billion
Speaker 11: dollar industry. But we've had X prizes for reinventing how
Speaker 11: we teach kids in the middle of Africa, for pulling
Speaker 11: I had a one hundred million dollar X Prize that
Speaker 11: got el to fund in twenty twenty one for pulling
Speaker 11: gigatons of carbon out of the atmosphere. We just launched
Speaker 11: an X prize about nine months ago for wildfires right
Speaker 11: here in California. We got all these wildfires, but it's
Speaker 11: insane that we fight these fires the same way we
Speaker 11: did twenty fifty years ago. This is an X prize
Speaker 11: asking teams detective fire at ignition and put it out
Speaker 11: within ten minutes autonomously.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 11: So this way we're looking for audacious, achievable goals and
Speaker 11: for me, there's no bigger gift than twenty years of
Speaker 11: additional health you can give somebody. It's the biggest business market.
Speaker 3: Peter I was there in New Mexico when Richard Brentson
Speaker 3: went up on VSS unity. But think about the time
Speaker 3: it took to get there from when the initial prize
Speaker 3: was issued. Do you see credicles have come up? But
Speaker 3: the pace of commercialization is the question? Right? Your opinion
Speaker 3: on that?
Speaker 11: Yeah, yeah, no, it's listen. We unfortunately we say our
Speaker 11: work begins when the prize gets won, because you then,
Speaker 11: when someone's demonstrating a minimally viable product, how you turn
Speaker 11: it into an industry. And it's taken the better part
Speaker 11: of twenty years to get commercial spaceflight going. And so yeah,
Speaker 11: it's really but something's different now. The reason we're doing
Speaker 11: this one hundred and one million dollar health Span Prize
Speaker 11: now is that smaller teams using generative AI, using CRISPER,
Speaker 11: using gene therapies, using cellular medicine, the ability of small
Speaker 11: teams to do things that only largest government programs and
Speaker 11: largest corporations could do before. So we announced this in Riad,
Speaker 11: Saudi two weeks ago. We have one hundred and fifty
Speaker 11: teams competing thus far, My goal is we'll get north
Speaker 11: of five hundred teams or maybe one thousand teams.
Speaker 4: And it's where from.
Speaker 2: What's interesting is you say you announced this in the
Speaker 2: Middle East. Can you tell us we've only gone a
Speaker 2: minute left? But where you're seeing some of the most talent,
Speaker 2: when you're seeing really the hunger to fix this problem.
Speaker 11: Yeah, we're seeing it. It's around the world, right. We
Speaker 11: will typically get competitors from fifty countries around the world,
Speaker 11: sixty seventy eighty. And this competition is showing us where
Speaker 11: we're going to be in the next seven or eight years.
Speaker 11: And people need to realize there are things you can
Speaker 11: do right now to keep yourself healthy and young until
Speaker 11: you get there.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 11: So that's the reason I wrote my book longeb to
Speaker 11: your Practical Playbook. It's also the reason you know I
Speaker 11: started a company called Fountain Life, and these are the
Speaker 11: most advanced diagnostic companies in the world, right, the most
Speaker 11: advanced therapeutic So you can go now and find out
Speaker 11: is there anything going on inside your body you need
Speaker 11: to know about because you can do something about it.
Speaker 11: People need to look our bodies are amazingly good at
Speaker 11: hiding disease.
Speaker 2: Well, said ex post founder. Great to have you, Peter DMan,
Speaker 2: as we thank you for other time. Meanwhile, that does
Speaker 2: it for this edition of Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: Technology Recap, a big Friday and a busy week on
Speaker 3: the podcast from San Francisco and New York City. This
Speaker 3: is Bloomberg Technology