WEBVTT - Outlook For The Retail Space 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.600 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.479 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:22.680 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, let's talk retail. 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:24.480 We had a lot of the retailers report their numbers 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:27.800 over the last a week to ten days. Very solid numbers, uh, 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:32.640 some cautious outlooks, the delta varying obviously being a big issue, 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:35.720 as well as supply chain issues. Let's really dig down 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:37.560 on the world of retail. We can do that today 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:40.240 with a Lane Kuan, co founder and partner of Quantified. 0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:42.919 She was a former head of Luxury at Amazon E. Lane, 0:00:42.920 --> 0:00:45.240 thanks so much for joining us here. Again, some pretty 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:47.440 good numbers out of the retailers over the last week 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:50.520 or so. How are you thinking about the important back 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:53.000 to school and then of course the holiday shopping season 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:56.920 coming up? Absolutely, Paul Taylor, thanks for having me. So 0:00:57.240 --> 0:01:00.640 when we look at the holiday season this year, what 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:04.560 we can expect is that everything is going to start earlier. 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:08.360 Brands and retailers have lost so much as we know, 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:12.839 over the last eighteen months, and frankly, during the last year, 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:17.080 brands and retailers cut a lot of their manufacturing, their 0:01:17.280 --> 0:01:21.479 purchase orders, inventory movement because they didn't know when things 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:26.960 would start moving back into um, you know, normal retail cycles. However, 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:31.680 Q four has been pinned as the time to return, 0:01:32.080 --> 0:01:35.479 and so we're starting to look at Q four not 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:40.040 just starting in November, but frankly starting in September next month. 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:44.240 So I would expect to see fantastic new products starting 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:47.720 to come out. Lots of brands know that they cannot 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:51.440 afford to risk another peak season going awry, and so 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:55.400 we're going to see fantastic new selection coming to shelves, 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:58.880 coming to online e commerce sites starting next month. Are 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:02.000 the products though, able to get there given some of 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:06.440 the supply chain issues we've seen, Yeah, that's a fantastic question. 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:09.760 As we know, transportation and logistics are much more expensive 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:13.440 nowadays due to labor shortages. Have your import volumes, higher 0:02:13.480 --> 0:02:17.320 fuel costs, increased partsy material costs across the board, and 0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:20.440 so that is part of the reason why we expect 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:23.920 the season to start early is because everyone knows we 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:26.480 cannot afford to be late. We cannot afford to miss this. 0:02:26.560 --> 0:02:28.960 We have to get it in three to four months 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:31.800 earlier than when we would normally bring these products in 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:35.680 for the holiday season. Lane, what do you trying to 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:38.959 gauge the consumers always such a difficult part of retail 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:43.160 and in this environment where we're reopening but we're cautious 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:45.600 about the delta variant? And how do you view the 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:47.760 consumer here? How are you talking to your clients about 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:51.720 how they should view the consumer? Another great question. So 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:54.560 I think one of the biggest changes we saw last 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.840 year with the consumer behavior during COVID is that people 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:02.320 stopped buying for the future. Their immediate mental shift came 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:05.360 to what do I need today. I'm buying for today. 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:08.799 I'm not buying long term items. I'm not buying investment 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:12.720 pieces or specific luxury item that I was saving up for. 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:15.480 I'm not certain about the future, so I'm going to 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:18.520 buy things that take care of me today. And that's 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:21.920 why we saw a huge shift into buying for comfort 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:26.120 practicality while bringing some joy. For example, we saw huge 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:31.600 increases and athletesure wear, clothing, skincare, mail care and hair care, 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:36.600 everything from home gadgets, appliances, in decor, even home fragrances 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:39.960 saw a massive jump, and so we are starting to 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:42.800 see folks starting to buy more for the future again, 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:45.880 that is definitely coming into play. We think that's back 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:49.440 to school. UH specific era that we're in right now 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:52.760 has been incredibly productive and folks are very very happy 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:55.920 to see that that consumer demand has been returning. But 0:03:56.000 --> 0:04:00.600 we're still counting on the short term buying. I would 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.680 say area focus for most consumers right now. It was 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:07.160 really interesting that there were reports earlier this week that 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:11.520 Amazon was looking at opening up several retails brick and 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:15.920 mortar locations, which is the exact industry lane. As you 0:04:15.960 --> 0:04:20.560 know that they totally disrupted for some of the merchants 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:23.200 on Amazon. You know, what are you thinking, what are 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:25.680 you advising? Is it too early to tell or we 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.560 now thinking about shifting back and we will maybe we 0:04:29.600 --> 0:04:34.039 want to retail presents. You know, it's funny that you 0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:39.159 mentioned that, because we think that this is potentially very 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:44.839 exciting idea that, if executed correctly, could be the next 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:47.480 big thing in brick and mortar that we have been 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:51.599 looking out for. As we know, you know, Amazon has 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:55.560 you know, taken out some of the largest major department 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:57.680 stores in the brick and mortar presence over the last 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:01.360 several years in some ways, and ironically it makes sense 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:04.320 that they are now coming back to the space to 0:05:04.400 --> 0:05:06.720 try and claim it, you know, thinking that they can 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:09.640 do it better than perhaps those that came before. We 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:11.479 don't believe that brick and mortar in and in and 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:14.120 itself is dead by any means. We just think that 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:17.160 it needs to manifest in a new way. And so 0:05:17.680 --> 0:05:21.040 based on what we're hearing, the department store could be 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:26.200 incredibly productive. I think the secret sauce of Amazon's incredible 0:05:26.240 --> 0:05:29.680 customer service translating into a physical space is going to 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:32.280 be really special. Not to mention that if they do 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:36.120 focus on clothing, apparel, and perhaps even a beauty counselor 0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:41.000 in that physical space, they could frankly dominate the apparel 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:42.880 space in the fashion space, which is a goal that 0:05:42.920 --> 0:05:46.520 we've had for several several years now. Elane talked to 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:50.280 us about luxury here, Um, how has it performed during 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:54.080 the pandemic and kind of what's the outlook going forward, 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:56.039 because I was shocked when I see some of the 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:58.359 e commerce numbers from some of the luxury brands. I 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:00.920 just can't imagine spending ten thousand dollars on a piece 0:06:00.920 --> 0:06:03.880 of jewelry and buying it online, but apparently people do 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:08.080 that stuff. You know, you're you're correct. Uh. So we 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.960 have been seeing some really interesting trends, and I would 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:15.400 say one of the other uh movements that we're starting 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:17.599 to see pick up and would expect to see continue 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:20.120 is what we're calling the return of the Roaring twenties. 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:23.160 You know, folks on the same token, even though they've 0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:27.640 been buying lots of matching tight eye hoodie and jogger 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:31.560 sets and comfortable rogues, they're also getting tired of that 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:33.919 as well. They want to be able to dress up. 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:38.000 They want to be able to enjoy feeling glamorous and 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:41.119 getting you know, made up. And so we're definitely seeing 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:44.839 that there's a pretty steady stream of demand that's growing 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:48.240 um by the month in terms of you know, customers 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:51.560 buying luxury items, and because they know that a lot 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:55.440 of these store physical presences are still unavailable, they're willing 0:06:55.440 --> 0:06:58.360 to do it online. And to their credit, many brands 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:01.880 through their e commerce site have done a pretty amazing 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:05.840 job of improving the overall customer experience online, and so 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:09.400 we're seeing a nice i would say, overall shift of 0:07:09.440 --> 0:07:14.520 customers willingly buying very very expensive items through e commerce. 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:17.000 Elaine Kwan, thank you so much for joining us. We 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:20.520 really appreciate it. Elaine Kwan, co founder partner of Quantified, 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:22.320 a former head of Luxury at Amazon, giving us an 0:07:22.360 --> 0:07:24.800 outlook for retail back to school. We're underway in the 0:07:25.680 --> 0:07:28.000 and it says apparently Elaine was saying, you know, we're 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:34.160 gonna start shopping for the holiday stuff even sooner. Well, 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:36.320 our good friends at Charles Schwab they have their latest 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:40.559 latest Trader Pulse survey out tries to capture what's on 0:07:40.680 --> 0:07:43.400 top of mind for traders right now and again markets 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:46.000 hitting new all time highs. How much higher it can 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:48.440 we go? Barry Metzger joins us, his managing director of 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:52.520 Trading Services fort Charles Schwab. Again, Barry, thanks so much 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:54.160 for joining us here. And we see markets at a 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:57.880 near all time highs, seemingly on a daily basis, our 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.720 traders getting nervous that we might be near the top here. 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:05.040 Good morning, Paul, and thanks for having me. Uh, well, 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:07.240 you know we're not actually seeing that. In fact, I 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:10.600 would say in terms of market sentiment amongst our traders, 0:08:10.720 --> 0:08:14.480 one third of traders are bullish on the market and 0:08:14.520 --> 0:08:17.400 almost half our neutral on the next six months. So 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:19.960 you know, there is a mix. There's a mix of 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:24.040 optimism and perhaps some caution, and no question, the rise 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:28.280 of the delta variant and inflation is clearly weighing heavily 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:32.840 on their minds. You know, traders universally reported that the 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:36.400 continuation of the COVID nineteen pandemic is their number one 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:40.760 concern right now, and eighty seven are concerned about the 0:08:40.840 --> 0:08:43.559 rise of the delta variant and the potential market impact 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:46.800 through the rest of the year. It is interesting because 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:48.760 at least here in the media, we've been talking a 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:51.680 lot about the rise of the variant. I had, for example, 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:55.000 the pet Cove CEO on the other day and we 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:58.040 asked him that question, is the variant are you seeing 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:01.240 it in sales? And he said, like, we we haven't 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:04.079 seen anything yet. When you talk to some of the airlines, 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:06.600 they are saying they're seeing to change in bookings and 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:11.560 some hesitancy. So while it maybe on top of minds, 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:15.520 is that translating into a change in behavior into a 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:20.360 change in the way traders are trading. Yeah, Taylor, we 0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:23.760 we we have seen that. So you know, in terms 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:26.760 of what we're seeing in traders, you one third of 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:31.440 traders have already changed their strategies since Delta emerged, opting 0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:35.360 to increase their exposure to equities, cash, and fixed income. 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:38.040 And among the traders that haven't made changes due to 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:42.760 Delta have say they may change strategies in the coming months. 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:46.000 And so this group is looking at increasing cash exposure 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:50.320 first and foremost, and then decreasing exposure to equities and 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:53.880 investing in more domestic stock. So we we are seeing 0:09:53.960 --> 0:09:57.440 the Delta variant certainly play a role in how clients 0:09:57.520 --> 0:10:00.880 take a look at their portfolios. One of the things 0:10:01.000 --> 0:10:04.000 very like when we talked to you know, you guys 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:05.520 it Schwab. You give us a good insight into the 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:09.440 retail investor. We had a big retail trading boom, if 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:12.360 you will, during the pandemic as folks were kind of 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:15.280 locked down here. Is that a thing to stay or 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:17.360 are we gonna go back to more normalized trading activity 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:22.640 from the retail sector, Paul, The retail trading boom is 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:26.160 here to stay. A six percent of traders think this 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:29.320 trend will continue, you know, and it's Schwab. We've seeing 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:34.040 the entrance of younger investors also come into play, and 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:39.560 from more than half of new Schwab retail households, we're 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:45.280 forty years old or under. For Q one, more than 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:49.360 six of new households were forty and under. You know, 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:52.440 the factors around the pandemic. It definitely helped to fire 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:55.600 for new investors, but it's not the only factor we're 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:58.200 seeing driving this UM. I think it's a combination of 0:10:58.280 --> 0:11:02.720 three things. Greater use and accessibility to investing and trading, 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:06.960 so example of lower minimums or fractional shares, and then 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:11.400 retail traders now have access to increasingly sophisticated tools that 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:15.120 look very similar to what institutional trader use use. And 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:18.240 then lower training costs and most notably the move to 0:11:18.360 --> 0:11:22.319 zero commissions over the past year. Barry, I hate to 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:25.080 ask this, but I hear that gen Z all their 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:28.600 trading is bitcoin and dose coin, and it was interesting 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:32.440 that there are some concerns about robin Hood's outlook, but 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:35.840 that dose coin trading it actually really come and saved 0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:41.840 the day. Do you see that what are they trading. Well, 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:45.079 you know, it's a great question because this is something 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:47.319 that is always on our mind. You know, we see 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:52.000 both veteran and new traders alike digging into trading strategies 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:56.199 and education and this is what's really important. Nearly half 0:11:56.240 --> 0:12:01.040 of traders reports spending more time on research before placing 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:05.240 trades than they did before March. And that's fantastic. And 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:10.120 on average, traders spend are spending seven hours researching and 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:14.520 more than five hours pursuing trading education each week. And 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:18.440 we see this reflected in our own data. As an example, 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:21.720 viewership of the t D and Marriage Trade Network increased 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:28.760 from June to June of So, you know, traders have 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:33.160 a preference for getting their information and research through online 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:37.240 news sources and research reports um from their trading firm 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:41.439 or elsewhere, versus say social media. You know, social media 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:44.120 does provide some engagement opportunities to less than a quarter 0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:46.880 of traders are using it for trade ideas in education, 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:50.079 good news, I think. Barry Metzker, Managing director of Trading 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.760 Services for Charles Schwab, thank you so much for joining. 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:55.800 Is Charles Schwab out with our latest Trader Pulse, A 0:12:55.960 --> 0:13:00.440 survey indicating that the traders that Trump chats with remain 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:06.560 generally bullish on this market place. Looking at the markets here, 0:13:06.679 --> 0:13:10.880 NASDAC leading the way up almost one full percentage point today. 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.240 That's a good segue to our next guest, Ted Smith, 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:16.720 co founder and President Union Square Advisors. I want to 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:19.160 talk technology here, tech, m and A, I p O 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:22.840 S capital raising. It seems like technology continues to lead 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:24.760 this market. Ted, thanks so much for joining us here, 0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:26.760 love to get your thoughts on kind of what you 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:30.560 guys are seeing in the M and A space, particularly 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:33.920 the tech side. Well, thanks for having me on. And 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:37.360 it's certainly been a busy year over the course of one. 0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:40.679 Really that this rally for us in tech started back 0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:42.600 in the second half of last year as we were 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:44.160 first kind of coming out of the first wave of 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:48.040 the pandemic. We continue to see tremendous activity across all 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:51.439 all elements of the tech sector, but particularly in M 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.080 and A. Across all M and A today, we've got 0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:57.559 more deal volume in the first half, and we saw 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:00.800 saw all of last year. Tech continues to to drive 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:05.600 tremendous deal volumes were almost this year over last year, 0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:08.400 so we're just seeing a lot of volume and really 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:12.600 no signs of that debating. Is it shocking given that 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:16.440 we've really had an administration that's focused on dealmaking, focused 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:22.080 on promoting more competition, very hard language about anti big tech, 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:25.160 and yet some of these tech companies are saying, well, 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:27.000 we're just going to try to squeeze it through while 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:30.360 we can. I think there's some element of that, there's 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:33.840 a little asked for forgiveness rather than permission. But the 0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:37.360 reality of it is, even in the current administration, the targeting, 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:40.400 if you will, or the focus of their uh clamping 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:43.080 down on big on dealmaking is really reserved for the 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:46.320 largest of the large companies. UM so you see some 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.040 concerns that the facebooks and the Googles is there may 0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:51.800 be some some focus on those companies, but check m 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:53.840 and a volume really that we've seen over the course 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:55.960 of the last year has been spread much more broadly 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:58.960 than just those largest of the large companies, and so 0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.240 that that active is going to continue a pace and 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:04.240 really hasn't been the focus of this administration. I love 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.560 to talk to you about just kind of capital raising 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:09.160 in general. You know, we used to just focus on 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:11.280 I p O s, but then we had direct listings 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:15.080 and and SPACs and those types of things. What's the 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.080 trend here? What are you seeing in the tech side 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:21.000 in terms of capital raising? UH? In the equity markets? Well, 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:23.360 we we think that the that the trend is really 0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:26.120 all about making more options available for folks who are 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.400 seeking liquidity. Yes, the regular way I p O market 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.760 that we all know and love UH continues to be active, 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:35.160 and we think that's going to continue to be the case. 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.240 Direct listings are not for everybody, but for a certain 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:42.600 class of issuer UH not necessarily needing to raise significant 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:45.000 capital but simply wanting to see their shares traded, that's 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:48.480 an option for them. And then SPACs represent yet another 0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:50.880 alternative that we think we'll bring back some of the 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:53.920 smaller sized i p o s or midsized i pos 0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:57.040 that have fallen out of favor over the course of 0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.680 the of the last few years as I p o 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:02.520 s of gotten larger and larger and larger. UM. So 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:04.680 what it really means from our perspective is is the 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:08.480 capital markets are are evolving to enable different types of 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.320 liquidity options for different types of companies, and we think 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:14.120 that's a good thing. What are the biggest headwinds though 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:19.160 that you see from a capital raising perspective, I think 0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:23.000 there's continued scrutiny UH with respect to are these companies 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:25.640 ready to be public? We've seen some of that, particularly 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:30.040 UH in in UH. In the spack world, a number 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:32.880 of companies have gone public through spacts that are pre 0:16:32.960 --> 0:16:36.240 revenue or very early stage in their evolution, and I 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:38.600 think there's going to be more scrutiny on that and 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.840 investors and spacts. There's been some headwinds with respect to 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:46.240 the pipe market as they say, public UH or private 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:50.920 investment rather in public entities, which typically come along alongside 0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:52.720 of spacts, and that market has been sort of clogged 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:54.240 up for a little bit. So we haven't seen as 0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:57.600 much as much activity in the in the back half 0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:00.480 of the spact that the spacking process, if you will, 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:03.200 But we think that will all settle out. From From 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:06.239 an M and a transaction perspective, there really isn't a 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.680 lot of headwind other than the regulatory one about which 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:12.040 we spoke earlier. Right now, corporate balance sheets reflect a 0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:15.399 lot of cash. Private equity funds have a tremendous amount 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:17.840 of capital available to them, and they need to put 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:20.679 that capital to work otherwise they need to either it 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.320 invested in much lower yielding securities or give it back 0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:25.720 to their their limited partners, neither of which is very 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:28.720 palatable to the folks who run those big pools of money. Ted, 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:30.679 what are some of the sectors that you guys are 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:33.359 seeing some activity. I mean, I'm thinking, I'm trying to think, 0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:36.040 but what we write about and what we hear about 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:38.560 the most, maybe like fintech, healthcare i T. What are 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:40.280 some of the areas that you think are going to 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:43.359 continue to be active. Well, those are certainly two that 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:45.520 we see a lot of activity in. Fintech has been 0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:49.280 particularly active as we continue to to really evolve and 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:53.080 in some cases rewrite the infrastructure that that underlies our, 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:58.080 you know, the entire financial services sector. Obviously, crypto currencies 0:17:58.080 --> 0:18:01.720 and and and exchanges around crypto continue to get obviously 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:03.360 a lot of press, and there's a lot of evolution 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:05.520 around what digital currencies are going to look like over 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:08.840 the next five, ten years and beyond. We also think, 0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:11.159 to your point about healthcare i T, that there is 0:18:11.200 --> 0:18:14.399 a tremendous amount of of ongoing evolution and in some 0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:17.439 cases revolution of the health care system. The use of 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:22.360 software and digital technologies to improve patient outcomes, track how 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:26.159 patients are are managed and monitored, and ultimately improve the 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:28.520 overall health care system is getting a lot of focus 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:30.959 and we're seeing a lot of activity there the broader 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:34.720 digital transformation. I mean, many business processes today today are 0:18:34.720 --> 0:18:39.320 still done by you know, by hand, paper, pencil, rough spreadsheets. 0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:42.480 Were continuing to see large organizations continue to invest in 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:45.119 that um and then things that that are certainly not 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:48.760 new to to your audience, uport to the tech sector, 0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:53.480 things like e commerce and in cloud infrastructure continue to 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:57.040 evolve and change and we see tremendous amount of investment 0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.119 in the in those areas to make to make the 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:02.320 overall operation business more efficient. So basically what you're saying 0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:04.520 is it's a good time to be a tech investment banker, 0:19:04.640 --> 0:19:07.320 tech investor. That's kind of what I'm hearing here. Ted Smith, 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:10.400 co founder and president of Union Square Advisors, always appreciate 0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:12.919 getting his thoughts on the tech space, and you know, 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:15.240 Taylor is as Ted was mentioning it, just there's a 0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:17.160 lot of activity out there, there's a lot of capital 0:19:17.200 --> 0:19:19.520 out there, and there's a you know, um, a lot 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:21.520 of M and A as a result and capital raising 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:23.879 and really interesting comments, not only about the shift that 0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:26.879 we've seen indirect listings and spacks, and we saw flurry 0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:29.160 of activity. Some of that, of course within the stock 0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:31.800 market has started to cool off. You wonder if there's 0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.560 now another push for that. Yeah, exactly, So we will 0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:37.119 keep on top of that green on the screen here today. 0:19:37.200 --> 0:19:40.119 We will have more coming up. Taylor Riggs sitting in 0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:47.520 from Matt Miller and Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Markets. Alright, 0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:49.840 the as we talk about this COVID, the story has 0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:53.600 now moved towards the delta variant, the impact on that 0:19:53.640 --> 0:19:55.480 we're seeing on the hospital system. A lot of i 0:19:55.560 --> 0:19:57.920 c U beds uh filled, most of them filled in 0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:00.200 a lot of key states. And the questions in the 0:20:00.280 --> 0:20:02.359 turn to PPE, are we're gonna have any type of 0:20:02.359 --> 0:20:04.840 shortages like we did back at the beginning. Let's bring 0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:07.159 in Michael Senensky, he CEO of we Shielded is a 0:20:07.240 --> 0:20:10.080 PPE company. Michael, thanks so much for joining us here. 0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:12.119 We're starting to see the numbers in certain states go 0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:16.320 the wrong way, prompting some questions, will we have any 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:20.520 PPE shortages like we did at the beginning of the pandemic. 0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:26.359 Thanks for having me UM. The unfortunate answer is we 0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:29.560 are tracking shortages that are happening right now. Over the 0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:33.640 next two months, we're expecting major shortages as well as 0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:38.520 huge spikes in prices. Is for PP. Can you remind 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:42.119 us again, are these supply chain issues or is this 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:49.000 a demand problem? So, UM, these are supply chain issues 0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:52.080 that UM. For the past three months, it was pretty 0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:55.439 slow as far as the you know, the COVID spread 0:20:55.480 --> 0:20:59.000 and people were getting a little lax UM. So the 0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:01.800 supply that was on the ground was here and people 0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:04.520 weren't bringing in a lot of stuff from overseas because 0:21:04.680 --> 0:21:08.520 we were so saturated. But with the spike from Delta UM, 0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:11.080 all of the supply on the ground is getting gobbled 0:21:11.160 --> 0:21:14.840 up UM and and causing us you know, left us 0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:18.639 with a shortage as far as what's coming in UM, 0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:23.320 coupled with huge uptick in shipping costs. So the perfect 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:25.560 storm has been created of of lack of supply on 0:21:25.600 --> 0:21:27.840 the ground and not a lot of stuff coming in. 0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:32.800 All right, So let's talk about just you know, a 0:21:32.800 --> 0:21:35.920 lot of people. Obviously, the vaccination rates are much better 0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:38.879 than they were obviously just even six months ago. When 0:21:38.880 --> 0:21:42.240 they continue to get better, despite some hesitancy. How do 0:21:42.280 --> 0:21:46.320 you think this delta variant will play out as should 0:21:46.320 --> 0:21:49.200 we expect a peak at some time in the next 0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:53.920 weeks or could this go even longer? From your perspective. So, um, 0:21:54.359 --> 0:21:57.400 the bad news is about delta is people with vaccinations 0:21:57.440 --> 0:22:01.359 are still getting COVID and sick. Um. So it is 0:22:01.440 --> 0:22:06.080 bypassing the virus vaccines, the virus is just continuous, but 0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:10.639 still extraordinarily low percentage, right though, right, Um, you know, 0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:14.879 even with lower percentage, it's it's still a lot of people, 0:22:15.160 --> 0:22:17.600 you know, the grand scheme of things. So Um, when 0:22:17.600 --> 0:22:21.600 the hospitals are getting these new infections with the vaccines 0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:25.040 even um, you know, they're getting pressured and coupled with 0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:27.960 mask mandates, than the citizens put a pressure on the 0:22:27.960 --> 0:22:31.600 supply chain. So it's all these things combined. Before COVID, 0:22:32.320 --> 0:22:35.399