WEBVTT - Salesforce Now Focused More on Profitability

0:00:00.600 --> 0:00:07.240
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:12.880
<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg business Week inside from the reporters and

0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:16.640
<v Speaker 2>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:20.800
<v Speaker 2>global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

0:00:20.880 --> 0:00:26.200
<v Speaker 2>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:29.800
<v Speaker 3>We want to get to a couple of tech companies

0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:33.200
<v Speaker 3>for you. One that is sliding. In today's session, Tim,

0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:34.480
<v Speaker 3>we are talking about salesforce.

0:00:34.560 --> 0:00:37.880
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, sure, sliding by the most in close to two decades.

0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:41.640
<v Speaker 4>This after the company projected the slowest quarterly sales growth

0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:44.280
<v Speaker 4>in its history, renewing concerns that the company will be

0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:47.840
<v Speaker 4>left behind in the AI boom. The outlook heightening investors'

0:00:47.880 --> 0:00:51.040
<v Speaker 4>fears over salesforces sliding sales growth in the past year

0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:54.040
<v Speaker 4>as the company has turned its attention to bolstering profit.

0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:57.080
<v Speaker 4>Joining us now is on arog Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior

0:00:57.160 --> 0:01:00.920
<v Speaker 4>technology analyst. He joins us from Chicago. Honourah, good to

0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:03.640
<v Speaker 4>have you with us. It was interesting because as soon

0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:06.039
<v Speaker 4>as these numbers came out yesterday, we were covering it

0:01:06.080 --> 0:01:09.039
<v Speaker 4>live on TV and radio. We started we started to

0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:13.679
<v Speaker 4>see the selloff start, but it really gained momentum when

0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:16.880
<v Speaker 4>people really started to see what that second quarter outlook

0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:19.520
<v Speaker 4>would mean for the company. What's the big concern here

0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:21.000
<v Speaker 4>when it comes to salesforce.

0:01:22.600 --> 0:01:25.600
<v Speaker 5>See, the big concern is the size of salesforce is

0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:28.720
<v Speaker 5>too big that it's not immune to any macro slowdown.

0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:31.440
<v Speaker 5>And that's what we're seeing right now. What is happening

0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:34.440
<v Speaker 5>is corporations are spending a lot more money on hardware

0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:38.520
<v Speaker 5>and chips right now, and they're reallocating their budgets from

0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:41.920
<v Speaker 5>the bucket of other areas such as software and consulting

0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:45.120
<v Speaker 5>and services, and they are buying you know, hardware equipment

0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:47.800
<v Speaker 5>with it, and that's really having an impact on not

0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:50.640
<v Speaker 5>just salesforce. It's is not the only one. We saw.

0:01:50.680 --> 0:01:53.240
<v Speaker 5>The same thing happened with Workday a few days ago,

0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:55.600
<v Speaker 5>and you know, we envision this is going to be

0:01:55.640 --> 0:01:58.040
<v Speaker 5>the same story that plays out in July when other

0:01:58.120 --> 0:02:01.960
<v Speaker 5>software companies report, whether it says p Service Now Microsoft,

0:02:02.080 --> 0:02:03.800
<v Speaker 5>although we think it's going to be a lot less

0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:06.560
<v Speaker 5>for Microsoft and SAP, but this is going to be

0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:11.080
<v Speaker 5>a common theme of prolonged spending for the entire group.

0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:13.760
<v Speaker 4>You mentioned Service Now and other software companies not being

0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:16.600
<v Speaker 4>immune to this service now down twelve percent. Carol in

0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:17.400
<v Speaker 4>sympathy with this.

0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:19.760
<v Speaker 3>Hey listen, so Anna rug, is it just a case

0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:22.919
<v Speaker 3>of delayed purchasing. So in other words, we're spending on

0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.320
<v Speaker 3>you know, hardware, we're spending on chips big, big time

0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:28.160
<v Speaker 3>right now. But eventually we're going to get to the

0:02:28.200 --> 0:02:30.520
<v Speaker 3>software and we'll be spending down the road.

0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:34.480
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, and again, you know what had happened is we

0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:37.400
<v Speaker 5>saw some signs of recovery a couple of quarters ago

0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:40.480
<v Speaker 5>with this entire group for sales, for example, you know,

0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:44.119
<v Speaker 5>their leading indicator is a metric called CRPO. It went

0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:47.519
<v Speaker 5>from eleven percent growth to thirteen and thirteen and yesterday

0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:50.240
<v Speaker 5>dropped down to ten. So what happens is we were

0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:52.639
<v Speaker 5>baking in a recovery in the second half in terms

0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:54.960
<v Speaker 5>of the growth rates picking up. Now that's probably a

0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:57.400
<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty five story. So for the next six months,

0:02:57.440 --> 0:02:59.520
<v Speaker 5>not a whole lot happening in the space. So people

0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:01.960
<v Speaker 5>are basic saying, let me go find value somewhere. That's

0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:05.400
<v Speaker 5>what's really happening. We still believe long term software still

0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:08.000
<v Speaker 5>has a long way to go in terms of total

0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:11.200
<v Speaker 5>addressable market. I think AI helps the space, but it's

0:03:11.400 --> 0:03:14.240
<v Speaker 5>not going to be as quick and as easy to

0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:16.600
<v Speaker 5>see as let's say in video. It's going to take

0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:17.040
<v Speaker 5>some time.

0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:19.839
<v Speaker 4>Is there a cyclical nature to this? On a rock

0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:23.400
<v Speaker 4>with the idea that Okay, maybe we won't see spending

0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:26.519
<v Speaker 4>on software and services right now, but we'll start to

0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:30.160
<v Speaker 4>see it pick up again once these companies have purchased

0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:33.520
<v Speaker 4>the hardware that they need to sort of make the

0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:34.320
<v Speaker 4>transition to AI.

0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:38.720
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, that is actually the waterfall effect. It's usually semiconductor

0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:42.640
<v Speaker 5>and hardware first, then it trickles down to software subscriptions,

0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:45.240
<v Speaker 5>then it trickles down to services. We have seen this

0:03:45.640 --> 0:03:47.640
<v Speaker 5>game over the last twenty twenty five years. It's not

0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:50.880
<v Speaker 5>the first time, but we were surprised by the degree

0:03:50.920 --> 0:03:53.400
<v Speaker 5>of this what happens. And I think in addition to

0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:57.080
<v Speaker 5>the reallocation of budgets, I think the macroeconomic situation because

0:03:57.120 --> 0:04:02.680
<v Speaker 5>of the geopolitical concerns, probably also force CIOs and CFOs

0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:05.320
<v Speaker 5>to say, you know what, let's wait and wait for

0:04:05.400 --> 0:04:08.560
<v Speaker 5>that you know, million dollar software purchase or expanding our

0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:09.680
<v Speaker 5>footprint right now.

0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:11.160
<v Speaker 3>Hey, we just want to mention a headline crossing the

0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:14.720
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg terminal. This is coming from routers TikTok is preparing

0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:18.200
<v Speaker 3>a US copy of the app's core algorithm. So again

0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:21.080
<v Speaker 3>this is coming from Router's Hey, anaag before we move

0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:23.520
<v Speaker 3>on to another company. Any thoughts, I know this isn't

0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:26.800
<v Speaker 3>necessarily your world, but to hear that again coming from

0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:30.360
<v Speaker 3>routers TikTok preparing a US copy of the app's core algorithm.

0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:33.160
<v Speaker 3>We talk so much about the importance of that algorithm

0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:34.200
<v Speaker 3>to TikTok.

0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:36.560
<v Speaker 6>Any thoughts, I.

0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:38.560
<v Speaker 5>Think this is a lot more about politics than that's

0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:41.200
<v Speaker 5>actually technology. So you know, well, let's leave it at that.

0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:44.440
<v Speaker 5>But I think you know this story is not going

0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:46.400
<v Speaker 5>to come to an end very soon. It's going to

0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:47.520
<v Speaker 5>be dragged out, all right.

0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:48.000
<v Speaker 6>Good to know.

0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:51.240
<v Speaker 3>Hey, listen and appreciate you weighing in on Salesforce. Salesforce

0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:54.040
<v Speaker 3>and rag Rana is Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology analyst.

0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:58.240
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch Just

0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:02.080
<v Speaker 2>Live weekday afternoons from two pm Eastern Listen on Apple

0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:04.720
<v Speaker 2>car Play and then brout Auto with a Bloomberg Business

0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:06.880
<v Speaker 2>app or wants us live on YouTube.

0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:11.799
<v Speaker 4>So you know this Inn Muss, who's the bus of Tesla,

0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:15.880
<v Speaker 4>the world's largest ev maker, Tesla though in disarray. Layofs

0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:20.280
<v Speaker 4>are mounting, morale shattered, stock cratering, sales are anemic. Here's

0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:25.120
<v Speaker 4>the thing. Carol Musk also runs five other companies, SpaceX

0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:31.240
<v Speaker 4>X formerly known as Twitter Xai, that Ai intell, that

0:05:31.320 --> 0:05:34.560
<v Speaker 4>Ai Venture, the Boring Company, It's the Tunnel Company, and

0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:36.640
<v Speaker 4>then the brain machine startup Neuralink.

0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:38.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, he's got his hands in a lot of different pots.

0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:40.760
<v Speaker 3>He oversees more one hundred and thirty thousand people around

0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:41.080
<v Speaker 3>the world.

0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:41.719
<v Speaker 6>That's a lot.

0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:44.320
<v Speaker 3>And while he burns brightly at the center of this

0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:49.200
<v Speaker 3>corporate universe, a less visible coterie of consultants, fixers, board

0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:53.159
<v Speaker 3>and family members really orbit around him. Which it gets

0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:55.599
<v Speaker 3>us to today's Bloomberg Big Take, which I highly recommend

0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:57.920
<v Speaker 3>you check out on the Bloomberger at Bloomberg dot com

0:05:57.960 --> 0:05:59.520
<v Speaker 3>because it's interactive and fun.

0:05:59.360 --> 0:05:59.880
<v Speaker 6>To check out.

0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:01.560
<v Speaker 4>Yet it is one of the most read stories on

0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:03.480
<v Speaker 4>the terminal, and it maps out the people who make

0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:07.320
<v Speaker 4>Elon's galaxy of companies run. The story by Bloomberg News

0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:10.719
<v Speaker 4>senior technology reporter Dana Hull and Bloomberg News technology reporter

0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:13.760
<v Speaker 4>Kurt Wagner. Dana joins us from San Francisco. Kurt out

0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:16.520
<v Speaker 4>there in Denver. Kurt also the author of Battle for

0:06:16.560 --> 0:06:19.000
<v Speaker 4>the Bird, Jack Dorsey elon Musk in the forty four

0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:22.440
<v Speaker 4>billion dollar Fight for twitters Soul. Check out this story

0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:24.960
<v Speaker 4>and more from the Bloomberg Big Take on the Bloomberg

0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:28.040
<v Speaker 4>Terminal and at Bloomberg dot Com Slash Big Take. Great

0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:30.680
<v Speaker 4>to have you both with us. As Carol mentioned, it's

0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:33.159
<v Speaker 4>a fun interactive piece that you should definitely check out

0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:35.760
<v Speaker 4>online and click around a little bit because you can

0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:38.720
<v Speaker 4>learn a lot with your cursor. Dana, I want to

0:06:38.760 --> 0:06:40.200
<v Speaker 4>start with you, and I want you to set the

0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:43.240
<v Speaker 4>scene here from the Tesla perspective, just how bad are

0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:47.720
<v Speaker 4>things at Tesla and in the musconermy, I.

0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:50.919
<v Speaker 7>Mean they're pretty bad. You know, to lose thirty percent

0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:54.040
<v Speaker 7>of your you know, to be down thirty percent at

0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:57.200
<v Speaker 7>this point in the year is pretty significant. And we've

0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:59.960
<v Speaker 7>seen globally sort of a slow down and ev sale

0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:04.120
<v Speaker 7>and Tesla you know, got rid of nearly twenty percent

0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:07.320
<v Speaker 7>of its workforce in April, so just a lot has happened.

0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:11.160
<v Speaker 7>LinkedIn is full of people talking about how disappointed they

0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:14.760
<v Speaker 7>are at the way the layoffs went down, and simultaneously,

0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:18.120
<v Speaker 7>Musk is like out raising money for his latest startup,

0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:21.240
<v Speaker 7>So there's this kind of growing consternation that he's not

0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:23.360
<v Speaker 7>fully focused on what's happening at Tesla.

0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:26.640
<v Speaker 3>All right, Kurt, come on into the conversation, because you know,

0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:29.560
<v Speaker 3>we think there's six different companies, right, and I guess

0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:32.640
<v Speaker 3>they're not. They all maybe don't seem compatible. But what

0:07:32.680 --> 0:07:35.280
<v Speaker 3>really matters, right is what's going on in Tesla and

0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:38.960
<v Speaker 3>the profitability. Because if things are going well, maybe investors

0:07:38.960 --> 0:07:41.920
<v Speaker 3>and individuals look elsewhere. But when things start to go wrong,

0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:45.520
<v Speaker 3>Tesla the money maker, if you will, things are maybe

0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:46.320
<v Speaker 3>looked at differently.

0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:50.160
<v Speaker 8>I mean, we're seeing this right now in terms of

0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:53.720
<v Speaker 8>the complaints that we're hearing from Tesla investors about Elon's time,

0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:57.320
<v Speaker 8>Elon being distracted right when the company. When Tesla's doing well,

0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:00.080
<v Speaker 8>when the stock's going up, Elon's allowed to sort of

0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:02.720
<v Speaker 8>tinker with all these other businesses that he's running, and

0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:05.920
<v Speaker 8>people sort of just accept that and they let him

0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:08.080
<v Speaker 8>do that. But when things at Tesla aren't going well,

0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:10.000
<v Speaker 8>all of a sudden, his time is called into question,

0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:12.720
<v Speaker 8>his attentions called into question. And you have to remember

0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:16.600
<v Speaker 8>almost all of Elon's wealth is tied up in Tesla too, right,

0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:18.440
<v Speaker 8>So when the stock was doing bad, that effects the

0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:20.520
<v Speaker 8>loans that he takes out of That affects his liquidity,

0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:23.080
<v Speaker 8>his ability to finance some of these other businesses. So

0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:27.320
<v Speaker 8>Tesla truly is like the engine behind this entire universe,

0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:29.080
<v Speaker 8>and so when things are going poorly there, it really

0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:30.160
<v Speaker 8>does have a trickle effect.

0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:32.319
<v Speaker 3>All right, So, Dana, how did you guys figure out

0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:34.320
<v Speaker 3>I've been playing with this. Tim's been playing them with

0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:35.200
<v Speaker 3>this online.

0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:37.240
<v Speaker 4>Trying to count how many names we lost.

0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:39.960
<v Speaker 3>We lost track, right, and some of them work for

0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:42.240
<v Speaker 3>him directly, some of them don't. So how did you

0:08:42.280 --> 0:08:44.120
<v Speaker 3>guys kind of figure out how many or who you

0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:45.760
<v Speaker 3>wanted to put on this list?

0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:46.280
<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

0:08:46.280 --> 0:08:47.880
<v Speaker 7>So, I mean Kurt and I spent a lot of

0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:50.319
<v Speaker 7>time kind of going back and forth with this spreadsheet

0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:52.880
<v Speaker 7>of names, and it was tricky because it's by no

0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:55.800
<v Speaker 7>means definitive, right, And you know, if you did a

0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:59.959
<v Speaker 7>traditional ORG chart for X or Tesla or even SpaceX,

0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:03.199
<v Speaker 7>it would be obsolete in like a week because executives

0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:06.560
<v Speaker 7>come and go, there's layoffs. So we didn't want to

0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:09.320
<v Speaker 7>publish something that was going to be immediately stale, and

0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:11.080
<v Speaker 7>so we really kind of tried to focus on the

0:09:11.160 --> 0:09:14.280
<v Speaker 7>key executives at each company, but more than that, the

0:09:14.720 --> 0:09:20.000
<v Speaker 7>kind of stable of investors, family members, advisors, legal strategists,

0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:23.839
<v Speaker 7>people like Jared Birchall, who oversees Musk's family office. Kind

0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:27.439
<v Speaker 7>of like these long time loyalists who are with Musk

0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:30.040
<v Speaker 7>through thick and thin and pop up over and over again.

0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:32.760
<v Speaker 7>And then we just sort of had the idea, well,

0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:34.959
<v Speaker 7>let's make it a solar system that's kind of fluid

0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:38.120
<v Speaker 7>and dynamic with Elon at the center. And I think

0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:40.560
<v Speaker 7>it turned out really well. You know, I think you

0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:42.520
<v Speaker 7>can learn a lot about a lot.

0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:43.040
<v Speaker 6>Of these people.

0:09:43.360 --> 0:09:45.320
<v Speaker 7>I mean, Kurt knows this as well as I do

0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:48.000
<v Speaker 7>from working on his book. A lot of these names

0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:51.920
<v Speaker 7>come from trials, depositions, you know, a lot of them.

0:09:52.160 --> 0:09:55.160
<v Speaker 7>Like when Musk was first thinking about buying Twitter. I mean,

0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:58.000
<v Speaker 7>there was a trial transcript that had all these text

0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:01.200
<v Speaker 7>messages from all of these friends, and so, you know,

0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:03.920
<v Speaker 7>we pulled these names from a lot of public records.

0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:05.920
<v Speaker 4>Okay, So I want to go through some of the

0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:08.400
<v Speaker 4>names here and then start with the folks who are

0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:09.800
<v Speaker 4>closest to Elon's orbit.

0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:10.720
<v Speaker 9>Danny.

0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:13.280
<v Speaker 4>You mentioned Jared Birchall. Kurt, I want to ask you

0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:16.480
<v Speaker 4>about Kimball Musk, Elon's brother. By the way, there are

0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:19.280
<v Speaker 4>a few folks on this list who have the same

0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:23.000
<v Speaker 4>last name as Elon, which we'll talk about in a minute.

0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:27.520
<v Speaker 4>But Kimball someone who's been close to Musk his entire life,

0:10:27.880 --> 0:10:32.240
<v Speaker 4>and he's also served on boards various boards of various companies.

0:10:32.280 --> 0:10:36.440
<v Speaker 8>Kurt, that's right, And I think he's one of those people,

0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:39.200
<v Speaker 8>one of the few people probably in this orbit who

0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:42.440
<v Speaker 8>has been known to push back on Elon right and

0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:45.120
<v Speaker 8>actually call him out in certain things. We know that

0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:48.760
<v Speaker 8>when Elon was looking to buy Twitter, for example, Kimball

0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:50.680
<v Speaker 8>was there basically saying, are you sure you want to

0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:53.679
<v Speaker 8>do this? Like this feels like a bad idea, And

0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:56.880
<v Speaker 8>that's not the kind of thing that Elon hears very often.

0:10:57.000 --> 0:11:00.880
<v Speaker 8>And so I think having someone you know, who is

0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:04.000
<v Speaker 8>a family member, who obviously is a huge supporter of

0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:06.520
<v Speaker 8>his brother, you know, Kimball is certainly an ally, but

0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:09.440
<v Speaker 8>at the very least, is you know, willing to sort

0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:11.760
<v Speaker 8>of challenge some of his ideas, I think makes him

0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:15.320
<v Speaker 8>sort of a unique person within this orbit. Dana could

0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:17.240
<v Speaker 8>correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like that's

0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:19.360
<v Speaker 8>a unique role that he sort of plays as compared

0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:20.559
<v Speaker 8>to some of these other folks.

0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:22.920
<v Speaker 7>Oh for sure. I mean, you know, the sort of

0:11:22.960 --> 0:11:25.640
<v Speaker 7>wrap on Elon is that he's surrounded by yes men,

0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:28.360
<v Speaker 7>and that Kimball, as his brother, is like one of

0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:30.560
<v Speaker 7>the few people who can actually tell him no or

0:11:30.600 --> 0:11:32.000
<v Speaker 7>feels confident in telling him no.

0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:32.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:35.520
<v Speaker 4>I also should note Kimball makes a pretty good steak.

0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:39.000
<v Speaker 4>I was out in Colorado a few weeks ago and

0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:42.280
<v Speaker 4>I went to one of his restaurants, just randomly. A

0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:42.959
<v Speaker 4>friend wanted to.

0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:46.040
<v Speaker 6>Go there, you touch, Yeah, this should I try.

0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:47.600
<v Speaker 4>To expense the meal? I think I should. I was

0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:50.320
<v Speaker 4>doing some serious Kimball was not there. I did ask

0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:53.160
<v Speaker 4>the bartender if he comes in much, and she did

0:11:53.200 --> 0:11:55.120
<v Speaker 4>say he's been known to make an appearance. Remember he

0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:58.280
<v Speaker 4>is a chef. Okay, okay, I'm getting off topic here

0:11:58.280 --> 0:11:58.679
<v Speaker 4>a little bit.

0:11:58.679 --> 0:11:59.440
<v Speaker 6>That's okay.

0:11:59.480 --> 0:11:59.920
<v Speaker 9>We like that.

0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:02.440
<v Speaker 6>It just shows, you know, interesting folks in.

0:12:02.600 --> 0:12:08.200
<v Speaker 3>Elon's orbit, Dana, who would you consider when Elon has

0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:11.160
<v Speaker 3>to think something through beyond maybe Kimball?

0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:12.440
<v Speaker 6>Like who does he go to?

0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:17.840
<v Speaker 7>Well, that's a really good question, and I think it

0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:20.199
<v Speaker 7>depends on for what. So if it's if we're talking

0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:23.959
<v Speaker 7>about geopolitics, or the twenty twenty four presidential campaign, it's

0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:28.119
<v Speaker 7>probably people like David Sachs. If we're talking about a lawsuit,

0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:32.240
<v Speaker 7>it's probably Alex Spiro. If we're talking about raising money

0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:35.240
<v Speaker 7>for xat Ai or one of his other adventures, it's

0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:38.760
<v Speaker 7>probably Jared Birshall. So I think it sort of depends

0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:41.280
<v Speaker 7>on what the topic is. But you know, I think

0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:45.160
<v Speaker 7>what's interesting to think through about Elon is that this

0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:47.200
<v Speaker 7>is a guy who became a millionaire when he was

0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:49.720
<v Speaker 7>in his twenties. I mean, he made his first millions

0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:53.920
<v Speaker 7>when he sold his PayPal shares and started SpaceX back

0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.839
<v Speaker 7>in twenty two thousand and three, I think for two

0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.880
<v Speaker 7>thousand and two, and then you know, when you become

0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:01.800
<v Speaker 7>very wealthy at a very young age. I think it's

0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.200
<v Speaker 7>hard to trust people, and so the people that Elon

0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:06.480
<v Speaker 7>trusts tend to be people that he's known for quite

0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:09.120
<v Speaker 7>a long time, and a lot of these friendships date

0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:11.000
<v Speaker 7>back to those very early days.

0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:11.679
<v Speaker 9>Kurt.

0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:13.000
<v Speaker 3>And one of the things I was thinking about is

0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:14.920
<v Speaker 3>we went through this story that you guys put together,

0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:16.360
<v Speaker 3>is that often.

0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:17.720
<v Speaker 6>When we bring up anything to do.

0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:21.480
<v Speaker 3>With Elon's orbit, we talk about Elon, but there are

0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.120
<v Speaker 3>really important you know, I think about the cover story

0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:27.240
<v Speaker 3>I think that was on BusinessWeek about SpaceX a few

0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:30.480
<v Speaker 3>years ago that really talked about, you know, Gwen and

0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:32.559
<v Speaker 3>how much she was behind kind of the.

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:33.240
<v Speaker 6>Success of it.

0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:36.080
<v Speaker 3>And I just wonder, I think about our audience who

0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:38.880
<v Speaker 3>they should know about in Elon's orbit to kind of

0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:40.199
<v Speaker 3>build on what Dana just said.

0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:44.679
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I mean, I think the whole reason we did

0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:47.360
<v Speaker 8>this project is he was running six companies. You can't

0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:50.920
<v Speaker 8>actually run six companies and be president all the time, right,

0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:53.319
<v Speaker 8>So there are people like Gwen Shotwell who you alluded to,

0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:55.960
<v Speaker 8>that are sort of, you know, holding down the fort

0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:58.240
<v Speaker 8>when Elon's out and about, and so I think Gwen

0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:01.880
<v Speaker 8>is certainly a great example. It's Linda Yakerino is the

0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:04.920
<v Speaker 8>CEO of X. We've talked about her often and she

0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:07.960
<v Speaker 8>is on the list. So I think, you know, Dana

0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:11.080
<v Speaker 8>has a handful of Tesla executives that are very prevalent

0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:14.199
<v Speaker 8>and important to keep that company running when Elon's off

0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:17.480
<v Speaker 8>to another thing. So the whole purpose of this project

0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:20.320
<v Speaker 8>really was to give people a sense of like who

0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:22.480
<v Speaker 8>is running the day to day of these companies when

0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:25.280
<v Speaker 8>Elon is is at one of his other businesses and

0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:28.600
<v Speaker 8>they are very important, very relevant people on this list,

0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:30.440
<v Speaker 8>and so I think it's you know, for people who

0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:32.800
<v Speaker 8>care about Musk or the muscotomy. As you mentioned, it's

0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:34.520
<v Speaker 8>a good you know, it's a good universe to have

0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:35.400
<v Speaker 8>a familiarity with.

0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 6>Is it also important?

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 3>I think it was the Wall Street Journal that was

0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:43.120
<v Speaker 3>talking about inside Donald Trump and Elon Musk's growing alliance,

0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:46.760
<v Speaker 3>and you know, Dana, do we need to be thinking

0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:50.520
<v Speaker 3>that maybe Elon could find himself in some kind of

0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:53.160
<v Speaker 3>significant position in the White House and so these people

0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 3>become even more important in terms of Elon's businesses.

0:14:57.360 --> 0:14:59.640
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I mean the Wall Street Journal story was fascinating.

0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:02.400
<v Speaker 7>Pushed back on that a little bit today early he

0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:04.960
<v Speaker 7>tweeted earlier today that there is there has been no

0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:07.480
<v Speaker 7>discussion about a role for me in a Trump white House.

0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.480
<v Speaker 7>But you know, the election is still several months away,

0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:13.920
<v Speaker 7>and clearly Musk is going to have some kind of influence,

0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:17.600
<v Speaker 7>whether that's a cabinet position or just being an informal advisor.

0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:20.720
<v Speaker 7>I mean, we already know that Musk served on President

0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:24.320
<v Speaker 7>Trump's business councils during the first administration, so it would

0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:27.440
<v Speaker 7>not be unprecedented for him to play some kind of role,

0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:30.040
<v Speaker 7>even though Musk seems to be sort of throwing cold

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:32.720
<v Speaker 7>water on that idea. But yeah, I mean I think

0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:34.840
<v Speaker 7>I think that Musk's role in the election is going

0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:37.440
<v Speaker 7>to be key. You know, we know that David Sachs,

0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:40.240
<v Speaker 7>who's a friend of Musk's, is hosting a fundraiser for

0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:44.680
<v Speaker 7>Trump here in San Francisco next week. And you know

0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:48.200
<v Speaker 7>this is I mean, influential people tend to influence each

0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:50.400
<v Speaker 7>other in all kinds of ways. And you know, again,

0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:52.200
<v Speaker 7>we just really hope that people will take time with

0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:54.960
<v Speaker 7>this interactive graphic and get to know these other names,

0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:57.760
<v Speaker 7>because if you're an investor, or an employee or a

0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:00.600
<v Speaker 7>customer of any of these companies, she should really get

0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:04.360
<v Speaker 7>to know the people beyond Elon who have a lot

0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:06.320
<v Speaker 7>to do with how the company is operating.

0:16:06.720 --> 0:16:11.760
<v Speaker 4>I was struck by the two names around Neuralink. Chavon Zillis,

0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 4>who would be familiar to two people who've been following

0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:19.920
<v Speaker 4>Elon closely for a couple of years, because she doesn't

0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:24.520
<v Speaker 4>just work at Neuralink, She's also connected to Elon in

0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:25.480
<v Speaker 4>another important way.

0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:25.840
<v Speaker 7>Kurt.

0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:31.760
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, she's the mother of I believe two of Elon's children,

0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:35.200
<v Speaker 8>and so it just kind of goes to show you,

0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:37.760
<v Speaker 8>you know, the relationships that he has with these people

0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 8>oftentimes are much broader or much deeper than just the

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.160
<v Speaker 8>business aspect of things. And I think one of the

0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:47.640
<v Speaker 8>you know, if you read the accompanying story with this graphic,

0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:49.960
<v Speaker 8>what Dan and I tried to do was give people

0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:52.640
<v Speaker 8>a sense of like, if you work for Elon or

0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:55.119
<v Speaker 8>if you have a relationship with Elon in one capacity,

0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:57.600
<v Speaker 8>you sort of are expected to show up in all

0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.720
<v Speaker 8>of the other areas of his life where he might

0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:03.120
<v Speaker 8>need you. And so we saw that probably most prominently

0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:06.000
<v Speaker 8>with the Twitter takeover. Right he shows up, walks in

0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:07.919
<v Speaker 8>the building with the sink, and all of a sudden,

0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:10.199
<v Speaker 8>all of these people from the various corners of his

0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:12.840
<v Speaker 8>universe show up with him. And you know, Chavan's a

0:17:12.960 --> 0:17:16.080
<v Speaker 8>unique example, not everyone's, you know, having children with Elon,

0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:19.040
<v Speaker 8>of course, but the point being is that it's not

0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:21.919
<v Speaker 8>just like a one relationship thing. You know, if you

0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:23.880
<v Speaker 8>work with Elon at SpaceX, you might have to help

0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:26.040
<v Speaker 8>out at Tesla X in the future. And that seems

0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:28.359
<v Speaker 8>to be a pattern that we've noticed over the years.

0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:29.760
<v Speaker 3>We're going to ask you to of you and I'm

0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:32.480
<v Speaker 3>going to start with you first, Kurt. One name you

0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:34.399
<v Speaker 3>want to leave kind of our audience with, because you

0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:36.359
<v Speaker 3>guys have done the homework in a big way and

0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:39.400
<v Speaker 3>put out names that we don't typically maybe talk about

0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:41.800
<v Speaker 3>when we're talking about Elon's orbit. So just you know,

0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:43.440
<v Speaker 3>thirty forty seconds here one name.

0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:47.840
<v Speaker 8>Sure, this is a little bit of a well known one,

0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:49.800
<v Speaker 8>but I just think he's so important. Which is Jared Birchall.

0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:52.560
<v Speaker 8>And I was just literally writing a story last night. He's,

0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:56.080
<v Speaker 8>as Dana mentioned, Elon's sort of money guy, his business manager.

0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:57.880
<v Speaker 8>And I was just writing a story last night. He's

0:17:57.880 --> 0:18:00.720
<v Speaker 8>been named in lawsuits alongside Elon. He anything that's to

0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:02.760
<v Speaker 8>do with money and Elon, Jared's involved, and so I

0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:05.119
<v Speaker 8>just think, you know, he is so incredibly important to

0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:07.080
<v Speaker 8>understanding the broader universe.

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:09.440
<v Speaker 4>Here, okay, Dana, same question over to you. One name

0:18:09.480 --> 0:18:10.560
<v Speaker 4>you want to leave our audience with?

0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:14.520
<v Speaker 7>Oh Mead afshar So. Oh Meied works for Elon and

0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:16.919
<v Speaker 7>like he's he's like this kind of like chief of

0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:20.800
<v Speaker 7>staff role. He was at Tesla. He oversaw the construction

0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:23.040
<v Speaker 7>of the Tesla gigafactory. Then he was on like a

0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:26.280
<v Speaker 7>weird leave of absence, and he popped up at SpaceX

0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:29.800
<v Speaker 7>as like a vice president and he's just always around like,

0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:32.000
<v Speaker 7>oh Mead. Is is kind of like the new Sam

0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:34.879
<v Speaker 7>Teller if you remember who Sam Teller was, but Omeed

0:18:34.920 --> 0:18:36.120
<v Speaker 7>has a very influential role.

0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:36.800
<v Speaker 6>Love this.

0:18:36.800 --> 0:18:38.040
<v Speaker 3>This is gonna be a go to I know for

0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:41.960
<v Speaker 3>us as we go through different Elon related stories.

0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:45.560
<v Speaker 4>Maybe Elon Inc. Also, this is like epitomize.

0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:46.880
<v Speaker 9>This is great.

0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:49.600
<v Speaker 6>So appreciate it, you guys, Thank you so much. Danah Hall.

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:52.600
<v Speaker 3>She's senior Technology reporter at Bloomberg News in our San

0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:56.919
<v Speaker 3>Francisco bureau, along with Kurt Wagner, Technology reporter at Bloomberg News,

0:18:57.240 --> 0:19:00.560
<v Speaker 3>also author Excuse Me, A Battle for the Bird. Joining

0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:01.920
<v Speaker 3>us from Denver.

0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:07.520
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:10.520
<v Speaker 2>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car

0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:13.480
<v Speaker 2>Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:16.800
<v Speaker 2>can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:20.639
<v Speaker 2>New York station, Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:24.560
<v Speaker 3>It is time to tell the tale of Charlie Mullins,

0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:26.960
<v Speaker 3>from a working class background and working in a toy

0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:31.200
<v Speaker 3>car factory to living in a multimillion dollar London penthouse

0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:34.399
<v Speaker 3>with a view of the Thames and I'm la along

0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:37.320
<v Speaker 3>the way kind of building a very very successful plumbing

0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:39.719
<v Speaker 3>business that employed many in his own family. And then

0:19:39.760 --> 0:19:42.760
<v Speaker 3>Timmy ended up cashing in when private equity came along.

0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:44.000
<v Speaker 3>He made lots of money.

0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:45.280
<v Speaker 4>Okay, so life is good?

0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:45.520
<v Speaker 9>Right?

0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:45.760
<v Speaker 3>Yeah?

0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:46.959
<v Speaker 6>Sounds like it or is it?

0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:49.000
<v Speaker 4>The story Carol among our most read on the Bloomberg

0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:51.800
<v Speaker 4>terminal and in the latest issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine,

0:19:51.960 --> 0:19:55.320
<v Speaker 4>co written by Saba Mettings and Michael Sasso of Bloomberg

0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:55.880
<v Speaker 4>with More.

0:19:56.000 --> 0:19:56.760
<v Speaker 6>Michael joins us.

0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:59.760
<v Speaker 3>He is Bloomberg News Economy reporter in our Atlanta bureau

0:19:59.760 --> 0:20:03.439
<v Speaker 3>alone at Bloomberg Market's features editor John Hecknuer, who edited

0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:07.600
<v Speaker 3>the story, he is in Boston. Mike, let's start with

0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:11.200
<v Speaker 3>you. You reported it out. Tell us about Charlie Mullins and

0:20:11.240 --> 0:20:12.119
<v Speaker 3>his success story.

0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:16.879
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, well that was largely does by my colleague Sabbah

0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:21.120
<v Speaker 9>in London. But yeah, she found him. He is quite

0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:24.160
<v Speaker 9>the presence in the UK. I understand he's a bit

0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:29.960
<v Speaker 9>of a personality, has some controversial comments on political topics often,

0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:32.320
<v Speaker 9>but yeah he does. He came from a very working

0:20:32.359 --> 0:20:38.680
<v Speaker 9>class background, built the largest plumbing business in the UK.

0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:41.280
<v Speaker 9>I think it. He sold it for something like over

0:20:41.320 --> 0:20:45.240
<v Speaker 9>one hundred million pounds or so, and he's I guess,

0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:48.119
<v Speaker 9>living the life. He has a penthouse in London. I

0:20:48.160 --> 0:20:53.760
<v Speaker 9>think he lived near Tom Jones, the singer I love. Yeah,

0:20:53.920 --> 0:20:58.879
<v Speaker 9>a plumber just down down on below Tom Jones. So

0:20:59.400 --> 0:21:00.240
<v Speaker 9>very interesting. Yeah.

0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:04.119
<v Speaker 4>Okay, So Michael, why why does private equity want to

0:21:04.440 --> 0:21:08.959
<v Speaker 4>you know, quote unquote roll up home service businesses because

0:21:09.640 --> 0:21:12.160
<v Speaker 4>these are businesses that I think have been pretty tough

0:21:12.200 --> 0:21:15.200
<v Speaker 4>to scale historically. Whether or not you have you know,

0:21:15.600 --> 0:21:19.280
<v Speaker 4>four folks working on air conditionings on your team or

0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:21.639
<v Speaker 4>four hundred, you still got to send them all to

0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:23.960
<v Speaker 4>homes and offices to work on those air conditioners.

0:21:25.560 --> 0:21:27.879
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, well that's true. But there's a few things working

0:21:27.920 --> 0:21:30.480
<v Speaker 9>in their favor. There, there's a there. It's a very

0:21:30.520 --> 0:21:33.720
<v Speaker 9>fragmented industry. I mean, you don't have a dominant player

0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:37.359
<v Speaker 9>like a McDonald's or a Starbucks, and so imagine it's

0:21:37.440 --> 0:21:41.439
<v Speaker 9>kind of low barriers to entry. You can buy you know,

0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:46.520
<v Speaker 9>a plumber or an h VAC company in Phoenix for example,

0:21:46.920 --> 0:21:49.840
<v Speaker 9>and then add you know, just add onesie twosie around

0:21:49.840 --> 0:21:53.480
<v Speaker 9>the country, and certain some you've taken a small company

0:21:53.520 --> 0:21:56.440
<v Speaker 9>in Phoenix and built it into a fairly large company.

0:21:56.440 --> 0:21:59.719
<v Speaker 9>There's a firm I interview based in Atlanta that went

0:21:59.760 --> 0:22:03.440
<v Speaker 9>from one acquisition, built up twenty six or twenty seven.

0:22:03.760 --> 0:22:06.560
<v Speaker 9>Suddenly it's a one point five billion dollar a year company.

0:22:07.280 --> 0:22:10.720
<v Speaker 9>So it's it's it actually can be scaled. It's it's

0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:13.560
<v Speaker 9>so it's a very fragmented, and it's so low barriers

0:22:13.600 --> 0:22:14.000
<v Speaker 9>to entry.

0:22:14.000 --> 0:22:17.040
<v Speaker 3>As I said, well, John, I mean, Michael, you know,

0:22:17.119 --> 0:22:18.359
<v Speaker 3>talk to us a little bit more about like I

0:22:18.400 --> 0:22:22.000
<v Speaker 3>feel like this is something that we see private equity do,

0:22:22.520 --> 0:22:28.119
<v Speaker 3>whether it's vets, whether it's you know, as you report

0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:32.360
<v Speaker 3>on plumbers, kind of these home service companies, hospitality. I mean,

0:22:32.520 --> 0:22:36.960
<v Speaker 3>we have seen private equity go into these industries, you know,

0:22:37.080 --> 0:22:39.680
<v Speaker 3>doctor's practices, right, and kind of roll them up into

0:22:39.720 --> 0:22:40.640
<v Speaker 3>one big business.

0:22:42.760 --> 0:22:46.600
<v Speaker 9>Yeah. Yeah, Well it has happened in a lot of industries,

0:22:46.640 --> 0:22:49.720
<v Speaker 9>and for for sure the last several years, it's caught

0:22:49.760 --> 0:22:53.520
<v Speaker 9>fire in the home services industry, and we don't know

0:22:53.520 --> 0:22:56.560
<v Speaker 9>how it's going to play out. As we mentioned in

0:22:56.600 --> 0:23:00.200
<v Speaker 9>the story, there's some concern about are these your taping

0:23:00.240 --> 0:23:04.560
<v Speaker 9>a family business that has a personal relationships with with

0:23:04.560 --> 0:23:07.600
<v Speaker 9>with thousands of customers, millions of customers around the country

0:23:07.640 --> 0:23:11.480
<v Speaker 9>and the UK, and you're creating corporatizing it, and so

0:23:11.520 --> 0:23:14.520
<v Speaker 9>there is some pushback. There's some some of these owners

0:23:14.600 --> 0:23:17.400
<v Speaker 9>are kind of angry. They think that when they went

0:23:17.480 --> 0:23:20.479
<v Speaker 9>corporate or they're bought out, sometimes the service is not

0:23:20.520 --> 0:23:24.840
<v Speaker 9>what it once was. Certainly that's what mister Mullen's in

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:28.000
<v Speaker 9>the UK thinks. Here in the US a little bit

0:23:28.240 --> 0:23:31.800
<v Speaker 9>too early to say. I talked to a number of

0:23:31.880 --> 0:23:34.560
<v Speaker 9>owners who are fairly happy so far. They think that

0:23:34.600 --> 0:23:37.359
<v Speaker 9>they like some of the changes that have been made.

0:23:37.480 --> 0:23:39.080
<v Speaker 3>But what I'm saying is that this is something we

0:23:39.119 --> 0:23:40.080
<v Speaker 3>see private equity do.

0:23:40.280 --> 0:23:40.440
<v Speaker 7>Right.

0:23:40.520 --> 0:23:44.440
<v Speaker 3>They find industries that are often kind of just separate

0:23:44.560 --> 0:23:47.920
<v Speaker 3>small business owners, if you will. Whether it's veterinarians. I've

0:23:47.960 --> 0:23:50.359
<v Speaker 3>seen it with our vet they became part of a

0:23:50.440 --> 0:23:52.800
<v Speaker 3>large practice and then private equity got involved. I've seen

0:23:52.800 --> 0:23:55.760
<v Speaker 3>it with healthcare folks. You know, where there are individual

0:23:55.800 --> 0:23:58.080
<v Speaker 3>practices and then all of a sudden you see private

0:23:58.080 --> 0:24:00.880
<v Speaker 3>equity buying up. And they're doing that with plumbers, right

0:24:01.080 --> 0:24:04.560
<v Speaker 3>or you know, electricit putricians like these are areas that

0:24:04.600 --> 0:24:07.320
<v Speaker 3>they are finding opportunities we're seeing this increasingly.

0:24:08.320 --> 0:24:10.080
<v Speaker 9>Yeah. Well, like I said, some of that goes back

0:24:10.080 --> 0:24:13.280
<v Speaker 9>to the fragmented nature of it. It's hard to go

0:24:13.400 --> 0:24:16.600
<v Speaker 9>into an establ a business where there are huge businesses,

0:24:16.720 --> 0:24:19.080
<v Speaker 9>dominant businesses, and to roll them up. It's a lot

0:24:19.160 --> 0:24:23.119
<v Speaker 9>easier when it's a fragmented industry. And also money has

0:24:23.160 --> 0:24:26.040
<v Speaker 9>been a little bit tighter in recent years with a

0:24:26.119 --> 0:24:28.800
<v Speaker 9>higher interest rates and whatnot, and so it's a little

0:24:28.800 --> 0:24:32.399
<v Speaker 9>bit easier to digest a company that you're maybe a

0:24:32.440 --> 0:24:35.280
<v Speaker 9>fifty or one hundred million dollar plumbing or h vac

0:24:35.320 --> 0:24:39.160
<v Speaker 9>shop than it is acquiring a multi billion dollar company.

0:24:39.480 --> 0:24:42.000
<v Speaker 9>So interest rates kind of play a role in this

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:42.600
<v Speaker 9>a little bit.

0:24:42.760 --> 0:24:44.880
<v Speaker 4>Hey, Michael, I'm curious in terms of the reporting that

0:24:45.000 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 4>you did around the United States what you heard from

0:24:47.920 --> 0:24:51.440
<v Speaker 4>the large home services providers slash mom and pop home

0:24:51.480 --> 0:24:54.800
<v Speaker 4>services providers you spoke to about why they've resisted selling

0:24:54.800 --> 0:24:56.760
<v Speaker 4>to private equity or to a larger company.

0:24:58.480 --> 0:25:02.200
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, that's interesting. There's a fella here in Atlanta where

0:25:02.200 --> 0:25:05.480
<v Speaker 9>I am, Jake Cunningham. He owns a very large plumbing

0:25:05.720 --> 0:25:09.639
<v Speaker 9>services firm called Superior Plumbing, and he has resisted multiple times.

0:25:09.960 --> 0:25:12.760
<v Speaker 9>In fact, he says he gets offers, you know, sometimes

0:25:12.840 --> 0:25:16.240
<v Speaker 9>once a week, sometimes more to sell out. And he's frankly,

0:25:16.280 --> 0:25:20.880
<v Speaker 9>he's got five members of his family working for Superior Plumbing.

0:25:21.480 --> 0:25:26.359
<v Speaker 9>He's concerned. He's concerned that these companies will will slash heads. Uh,

0:25:27.080 --> 0:25:30.439
<v Speaker 9>you know, basically overly corporatized things, take out, you know,

0:25:30.520 --> 0:25:34.080
<v Speaker 9>take local control out of local people's hands. And he

0:25:34.160 --> 0:25:36.679
<v Speaker 9>told me he pays one of his top people, his

0:25:36.800 --> 0:25:39.600
<v Speaker 9>general manager, a half million a year. You know, would

0:25:39.680 --> 0:25:42.720
<v Speaker 9>would one of these corporate firms see this person as

0:25:42.760 --> 0:25:43.920
<v Speaker 9>a cuttable overhead?

0:25:44.400 --> 0:25:44.600
<v Speaker 10>Uh?

0:25:44.640 --> 0:25:46.720
<v Speaker 9>And he's worried about at least he said, he's worried

0:25:46.760 --> 0:25:47.439
<v Speaker 9>about his people.

0:25:48.520 --> 0:25:50.800
<v Speaker 3>John heckinjer we want to bring you into the conversation

0:25:50.920 --> 0:25:53.760
<v Speaker 3>you edited this story. I was talking, you know, we

0:25:53.760 --> 0:25:56.560
<v Speaker 3>were talking with Michael about this idea of how this

0:25:56.640 --> 0:25:59.560
<v Speaker 3>is kind of out of the pe playbook of finding

0:25:59.560 --> 0:26:02.160
<v Speaker 3>an industry there's opportunity and kind of rolling it up

0:26:03.680 --> 0:26:07.680
<v Speaker 3>into maybe a larger holding, investment holding. I am curious

0:26:07.720 --> 0:26:11.399
<v Speaker 3>how this story came on everybody's radar and and you

0:26:11.400 --> 0:26:13.280
<v Speaker 3>know how you guys wanted to report it out.

0:26:13.440 --> 0:26:14.520
<v Speaker 6>Walk us through a little bit of that.

0:26:16.040 --> 0:26:19.040
<v Speaker 10>Well, Mike had had sort of identified this trend last

0:26:19.119 --> 0:26:22.600
<v Speaker 10>year and did sort of sort of a shorter story

0:26:22.680 --> 0:26:25.080
<v Speaker 10>about what was going on in the US, and then

0:26:25.320 --> 0:26:31.119
<v Speaker 10>when Slappa came on to the story of Charlie Mullins,

0:26:31.640 --> 0:26:34.080
<v Speaker 10>it was sort of it was irresistible. It's rare that

0:26:34.160 --> 0:26:37.080
<v Speaker 10>you can have a photo of a guy with the

0:26:37.160 --> 0:26:40.480
<v Speaker 10>Rod Stewart haircutt in a purple suit, and Business magazine

0:26:41.560 --> 0:26:44.680
<v Speaker 10>were we were delighted that he was he was available,

0:26:44.680 --> 0:26:46.600
<v Speaker 10>he wanted to talk about it, and also that he

0:26:46.640 --> 0:26:51.240
<v Speaker 10>would very openly talk about his regrets. It's not easy

0:26:51.240 --> 0:26:53.720
<v Speaker 10>to get people in the industry who've sold out to

0:26:53.720 --> 0:26:55.880
<v Speaker 10>say what it's what it's really like. And he had

0:26:55.920 --> 0:27:00.359
<v Speaker 10>hoped that his children would work at the company, as

0:27:00.680 --> 0:27:04.080
<v Speaker 10>many founders do once they're bought up by private equity firms,

0:27:04.560 --> 0:27:07.320
<v Speaker 10>but they found that the culture just changed too much

0:27:07.760 --> 0:27:11.120
<v Speaker 10>and it wasn't a place for them anymore. So they're

0:27:11.160 --> 0:27:15.040
<v Speaker 10>actually deciding to open up a business to compete with

0:27:15.160 --> 0:27:20.040
<v Speaker 10>KKR headquarters right down the street. So he's not giving up.

0:27:20.119 --> 0:27:22.359
<v Speaker 4>Hey, John, I'm wondering if to you this sort of

0:27:22.600 --> 0:27:27.119
<v Speaker 4>signals any kind of pushback to private equity or our

0:27:27.200 --> 0:27:29.040
<v Speaker 4>trend that we're starting to see. I mean, I was

0:27:29.040 --> 0:27:31.680
<v Speaker 4>struck because early this morning there was an article publishing

0:27:31.720 --> 0:27:33.240
<v Speaker 4>the Wall Street Journal and the column heard on the

0:27:33.240 --> 0:27:36.280
<v Speaker 4>street about the headline is you can thank private equity

0:27:36.280 --> 0:27:39.240
<v Speaker 4>for that enormous doctor's bill. And I'm wondering if we're

0:27:39.280 --> 0:27:44.560
<v Speaker 4>starting to see some sort of pushback here to private equity.

0:27:44.680 --> 0:27:51.560
<v Speaker 3>Well, there has been some, all right, we have some

0:27:51.600 --> 0:27:54.600
<v Speaker 3>problems with John's line, so we're gonna see if we

0:27:54.640 --> 0:27:55.400
<v Speaker 3>can fix that out.

0:27:55.880 --> 0:27:56.200
<v Speaker 6>Michael.

0:27:56.240 --> 0:27:59.159
<v Speaker 3>Going back to you, though, it is interesting right as

0:27:59.160 --> 0:28:00.960
<v Speaker 3>Tim brought up in terms of some of the blowback,

0:28:01.000 --> 0:28:02.800
<v Speaker 3>I do feel like we've covered some of this blowback

0:28:02.800 --> 0:28:03.640
<v Speaker 3>in terms of private egy.

0:28:03.680 --> 0:28:03.840
<v Speaker 5>Yeah.

0:28:03.880 --> 0:28:05.640
<v Speaker 4>I want to send the same question over to you, Mike,

0:28:05.760 --> 0:28:09.159
<v Speaker 4>because you know, talking about this today, we're you know,

0:28:09.359 --> 0:28:12.400
<v Speaker 4>a sixty million dollar check for a plumber, a plumber

0:28:12.560 --> 0:28:16.159
<v Speaker 4>in Atlanta as a pretty darn good payday, and you

0:28:16.240 --> 0:28:19.440
<v Speaker 4>have to have some serious conviction to not accept a

0:28:19.520 --> 0:28:22.080
<v Speaker 4>check like that that could you know, set somebody up

0:28:22.080 --> 0:28:26.080
<v Speaker 4>for life with truly generational wealth. And I'm wondering if

0:28:26.080 --> 0:28:28.919
<v Speaker 4>you're starting to see any sort of pattern when it

0:28:28.960 --> 0:28:31.480
<v Speaker 4>comes to the folks that you're speaking to that they're like, okay, well,

0:28:31.640 --> 0:28:33.119
<v Speaker 4>you know, an exit would be nice, but not this

0:28:33.200 --> 0:28:33.879
<v Speaker 4>type of exit.

0:28:36.600 --> 0:28:38.400
<v Speaker 9>I did. I did get some of that, some of

0:28:38.440 --> 0:28:42.360
<v Speaker 9>your certainly, mister Cunningham. I will say I spoke to

0:28:42.560 --> 0:28:46.360
<v Speaker 9>some people, let's say, privately, off the record, who had

0:28:46.400 --> 0:28:49.840
<v Speaker 9>some concerns they did sell out, you know, maybe they

0:28:49.880 --> 0:28:52.760
<v Speaker 9>didn't feel comfortable kind of telling, but they did have

0:28:52.800 --> 0:28:55.760
<v Speaker 9>some reservations about some of the ways that their people

0:28:55.920 --> 0:29:00.360
<v Speaker 9>were being treated. Again, they were reluctant. Some frankly, most

0:29:00.360 --> 0:29:02.520
<v Speaker 9>of these people that I think we're under some kind

0:29:02.560 --> 0:29:06.600
<v Speaker 9>of no disclosed, non disclosure agreements so that we're not creatives.

0:29:06.840 --> 0:29:11.360
<v Speaker 9>But there certainly is there's a lot within the industries.

0:29:11.360 --> 0:29:14.920
<v Speaker 9>There's a deep reservation. You will, it's very split. You

0:29:14.920 --> 0:29:16.840
<v Speaker 9>could talk to people who have not sold out, and

0:29:16.880 --> 0:29:21.280
<v Speaker 9>there's almost the feeling like this person, this competitor caved

0:29:21.600 --> 0:29:26.200
<v Speaker 9>or sold out within this coder this continued that have

0:29:26.320 --> 0:29:27.240
<v Speaker 9>not sold out yet.

0:29:27.440 --> 0:29:29.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and I will point out in your story, you know,

0:29:29.640 --> 0:29:32.160
<v Speaker 3>the Wall Street controlled companies who are doing this and

0:29:32.200 --> 0:29:35.719
<v Speaker 3>picking up some of these companies say they're professionalizing these

0:29:35.760 --> 0:29:37.840
<v Speaker 3>businesses while preserving their.

0:29:37.720 --> 0:29:40.760
<v Speaker 6>Connection with customers. So just putting out anyway.

0:29:40.840 --> 0:29:43.560
<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of fun details in this story, including

0:29:43.600 --> 0:29:45.720
<v Speaker 3>mister Mullin's custom.

0:29:45.440 --> 0:29:47.000
<v Speaker 6>Made red Stoneway piano.

0:29:47.040 --> 0:29:49.800
<v Speaker 3>So I highly recommend you read this story. Michael Sasa,

0:29:49.840 --> 0:29:51.360
<v Speaker 3>thank you so much, and of course our thanks to

0:29:51.440 --> 0:29:52.200
<v Speaker 3>John Heckinger.

0:29:52.800 --> 0:29:58.960
<v Speaker 6>This is among our most read the journal.

0:30:00.040 --> 0:30:00.960
<v Speaker 9>How about you let me drive?

0:30:01.200 --> 0:30:02.160
<v Speaker 2>Oh no, no, no, no.

0:30:04.280 --> 0:30:06.520
<v Speaker 8>All right please, I'll do gravel.

0:30:07.760 --> 0:30:08.480
<v Speaker 3>I want to drive.

0:30:09.720 --> 0:30:11.640
<v Speaker 5>It's a question.

0:30:15.440 --> 0:30:19.960
<v Speaker 2>This is the drive to the globe. Well, bother it

0:30:20.640 --> 0:30:21.840
<v Speaker 2>on Bloomberg Radio.

0:30:22.120 --> 0:30:24.840
<v Speaker 3>All right, everybody, eighteen minutes left to today's trading session.

0:30:24.880 --> 0:30:26.880
<v Speaker 3>Shortly we're gonna head over to our TV colleagues. Caun't

0:30:26.880 --> 0:30:30.360
<v Speaker 3>you down to the clothes on this Thursday. In the meantime, Charlie,

0:30:30.360 --> 0:30:30.920
<v Speaker 3>of course.

0:30:30.800 --> 0:30:32.800
<v Speaker 6>Just breaking down the numbers. What do you laughing?

0:30:32.880 --> 0:30:33.000
<v Speaker 9>As?

0:30:33.120 --> 0:30:34.680
<v Speaker 4>This is like the longest shortest week ever.

0:30:35.640 --> 0:30:37.560
<v Speaker 6>It's like, come on, yeah, there's a lot.

0:30:37.680 --> 0:30:39.600
<v Speaker 4>I mean, look, there's a lot happening. Tomorrow we get

0:30:39.640 --> 0:30:42.280
<v Speaker 4>PC it's the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.

0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:42.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:30:42.640 --> 0:30:45.280
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, And our next guy says that getting inflation to

0:30:45.320 --> 0:30:48.200
<v Speaker 4>the two percent target is going to be a challenge

0:30:48.240 --> 0:30:51.600
<v Speaker 4>over the next year without some real deterioration in the economy.

0:30:51.640 --> 0:30:53.080
<v Speaker 4>Sorry I cut you off here, you know, I.

0:30:53.040 --> 0:30:54.560
<v Speaker 6>Kind of cut you and I. You know, that's kind

0:30:54.560 --> 0:30:55.760
<v Speaker 6>of the kind of day we're happening.

0:30:56.000 --> 0:30:59.200
<v Speaker 3>But it does feel like FED speakers or was it

0:30:59.240 --> 0:31:03.960
<v Speaker 3>former New York Fed President Bill Dudley questioning maybe that

0:31:04.080 --> 0:31:07.720
<v Speaker 3>target right, Yeah, yeah, maybe it's not. Maybe it's not

0:31:07.760 --> 0:31:09.959
<v Speaker 3>two percent. I don't know, and others maybe that two

0:31:10.000 --> 0:31:12.200
<v Speaker 3>percent isn't real. Let's see what Brooke May has to say.

0:31:12.240 --> 0:31:14.800
<v Speaker 3>She's managing partner at the wealth management firm Evans Maywealth.

0:31:14.800 --> 0:31:17.680
<v Speaker 3>They've got about a billion dollars in assets under management,

0:31:17.760 --> 0:31:20.400
<v Speaker 3>and she joins us from Indiana. Hey, Brook, good to

0:31:20.400 --> 0:31:22.640
<v Speaker 3>have you here with us. I don't know, it's a

0:31:22.640 --> 0:31:25.880
<v Speaker 3>funky little week. It's a funky little environment. Top of

0:31:25.920 --> 0:31:29.800
<v Speaker 3>mind for your customers, your clients when they are thinking

0:31:29.800 --> 0:31:33.480
<v Speaker 3>about their assets, their money to invest.

0:31:34.440 --> 0:31:36.520
<v Speaker 1>Right now, they want to know where the economy is heading.

0:31:36.840 --> 0:31:38.600
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of mixed messages out there, a lot

0:31:38.640 --> 0:31:41.400
<v Speaker 1>of mixed signals, and just trying to decipher through the

0:31:41.440 --> 0:31:44.280
<v Speaker 1>noise and figure out what direction are we going really

0:31:44.280 --> 0:31:47.520
<v Speaker 1>weighs heavily for investors right now. As you alluded to,

0:31:48.040 --> 0:31:50.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, we don't think that getting to two percent

0:31:50.640 --> 0:31:52.640
<v Speaker 1>is going to be very achievable in the near term.

0:31:53.440 --> 0:31:56.800
<v Speaker 1>When we look at pce it's kind of plateaued. It

0:31:56.840 --> 0:31:59.800
<v Speaker 1>was on a steady decline for a prolonged period of time,

0:32:00.280 --> 0:32:02.280
<v Speaker 1>and just recently it's kind of settled at that two

0:32:02.320 --> 0:32:05.000
<v Speaker 1>point seven two point eight percent level. That's where we

0:32:05.040 --> 0:32:07.360
<v Speaker 1>expect it to come in tomorrow, and we think it's

0:32:07.400 --> 0:32:09.120
<v Speaker 1>going to be a grind from here to get to

0:32:09.160 --> 0:32:11.840
<v Speaker 1>two percent. So if we see two and a half

0:32:11.920 --> 0:32:15.600
<v Speaker 1>percent on PCEE, we think that the Fed could feel

0:32:15.600 --> 0:32:18.880
<v Speaker 1>comfortable starting to indicate at least that rate cuts are

0:32:18.880 --> 0:32:20.320
<v Speaker 1>coming in somewhat iminent.

0:32:20.280 --> 0:32:22.440
<v Speaker 4>Brook How long of a grind is it going to

0:32:22.480 --> 0:32:23.760
<v Speaker 4>be to get to two percent.

0:32:25.640 --> 0:32:27.720
<v Speaker 1>It'd be a while, you know, it could be another

0:32:27.720 --> 0:32:31.440
<v Speaker 1>twelve to eighteen, maybe twenty four months. We do see

0:32:31.560 --> 0:32:37.120
<v Speaker 1>inflation starting to slow down. When you look at CPI,

0:32:37.280 --> 0:32:40.200
<v Speaker 1>for example, there are quite a few components that have

0:32:40.280 --> 0:32:44.280
<v Speaker 1>really settled and aren't really giving us issues. But you've

0:32:44.280 --> 0:32:47.240
<v Speaker 1>got housing, for example, that makes up about thirty percent

0:32:47.280 --> 0:32:50.640
<v Speaker 1>of CPI and shelters up I think about five and

0:32:50.640 --> 0:32:53.960
<v Speaker 1>a half percent year every year. So it's kind of

0:32:53.960 --> 0:32:57.640
<v Speaker 1>a story of a bifurcation within the economy. Some areas,

0:32:57.760 --> 0:33:00.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, have settled in our tame and others will

0:33:00.280 --> 0:33:01.880
<v Speaker 1>continue to be hot.

0:33:01.920 --> 0:33:05.000
<v Speaker 3>Londa Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated last week that officials

0:33:05.040 --> 0:33:09.320
<v Speaker 3>are rethinking their estimate estimates of neutral end quote. There

0:33:09.360 --> 0:33:12.000
<v Speaker 3>may be reasons to think the baseline steady state is higher.

0:33:12.680 --> 0:33:15.640
<v Speaker 3>John Williams of the New York Fed, his predecessor at

0:33:15.680 --> 0:33:17.760
<v Speaker 3>the New York Fed, Bill Dudley, did write earlier in

0:33:17.760 --> 0:33:20.240
<v Speaker 3>a Bloomberg column that he believed the neutral rate had

0:33:20.320 --> 0:33:23.880
<v Speaker 3>risen substantially. I guess the big important discussion to have

0:33:23.960 --> 0:33:25.760
<v Speaker 3>around this brooke is not will it get there?

0:33:25.800 --> 0:33:26.240
<v Speaker 6>Will it not?

0:33:26.720 --> 0:33:31.120
<v Speaker 3>But if we are seeing growing narrative around that it's

0:33:31.160 --> 0:33:33.120
<v Speaker 3>going to be maybe above two percent, how does that

0:33:33.160 --> 0:33:36.400
<v Speaker 3>make you rethink how to invest? Does it really change

0:33:36.400 --> 0:33:38.080
<v Speaker 3>strategy a lot?

0:33:39.920 --> 0:33:40.400
<v Speaker 8>It does.

0:33:40.960 --> 0:33:44.040
<v Speaker 1>There are clearly areas of the market that are more

0:33:44.080 --> 0:33:47.200
<v Speaker 1>sensitive to interest rates than others. And if we're going

0:33:47.240 --> 0:33:50.520
<v Speaker 1>to be in a higher for longer camp, there are areas,

0:33:50.560 --> 0:33:54.080
<v Speaker 1>for example, like small caps Russell two thousand companies that

0:33:54.120 --> 0:33:55.920
<v Speaker 1>you may want to be light on in this environment

0:33:56.000 --> 0:33:59.720
<v Speaker 1>or be very selective about. Forty percent of small cap

0:33:59.720 --> 0:34:03.840
<v Speaker 1>companympanies are not profitable. Therefore they're relying heavily on debt

0:34:04.280 --> 0:34:07.480
<v Speaker 1>and a significant portion of Russell two thousand companies have

0:34:07.640 --> 0:34:11.359
<v Speaker 1>floating rate debt versus the SMP companies that have only

0:34:11.400 --> 0:34:15.080
<v Speaker 1>about ten percent floating rate debt, So that weighs heavily

0:34:15.120 --> 0:34:17.960
<v Speaker 1>on earnings, and we don't think small caps are going

0:34:18.000 --> 0:34:20.800
<v Speaker 1>to be the leadership over the next twelve to eighteen months.

0:34:21.160 --> 0:34:23.719
<v Speaker 1>Doesn't mean you won't make money, but we do think

0:34:23.719 --> 0:34:25.880
<v Speaker 1>that there are going to be companies that have stronger

0:34:25.920 --> 0:34:28.680
<v Speaker 1>earnings growth and a clear path forward that are going

0:34:28.760 --> 0:34:29.239
<v Speaker 1>to do better.

0:34:30.800 --> 0:34:34.600
<v Speaker 4>I'm wondering what you're seeing in terms of asset allocation,

0:34:34.719 --> 0:34:36.680
<v Speaker 4>or what you're going to do in terms of asset allocation,

0:34:36.760 --> 0:34:38.719
<v Speaker 4>given that this is your outlook, this is what you're

0:34:38.719 --> 0:34:40.840
<v Speaker 4>seeing over the next year or so, how does it

0:34:40.920 --> 0:34:42.400
<v Speaker 4>change the way that you position your.

0:34:42.239 --> 0:34:50.440
<v Speaker 1>Clients individual companies, not necessarily sectors. There's clearly a bifurcation,

0:34:50.719 --> 0:34:52.880
<v Speaker 1>not just in the market, not just in the economy,

0:34:53.120 --> 0:34:56.680
<v Speaker 1>but within specific sectors. Retail is a great example. You

0:34:56.719 --> 0:35:01.720
<v Speaker 1>look at Walmart, Costco, Coal's, Amazon Target, They're all telling

0:35:01.920 --> 0:35:05.520
<v Speaker 1>very different stories and it's clear that some corporate management

0:35:05.520 --> 0:35:08.000
<v Speaker 1>has been able to navigate this environment better than others.

0:35:08.600 --> 0:35:11.400
<v Speaker 1>We know, for example, the low income consumer is struggling

0:35:11.440 --> 0:35:15.200
<v Speaker 1>more so than the middle of class and high income consumer.

0:35:15.640 --> 0:35:18.600
<v Speaker 1>And so you would assume that Walmart is struggling, and

0:35:18.640 --> 0:35:18.960
<v Speaker 1>they're not.

0:35:19.000 --> 0:35:19.840
<v Speaker 6>They're doing well.

0:35:20.200 --> 0:35:22.120
<v Speaker 1>And so you have to be very selective in this

0:35:22.480 --> 0:35:26.439
<v Speaker 1>environment and really take a bottoms up perspective. We want

0:35:26.480 --> 0:35:30.160
<v Speaker 1>companies that have strong free cash flow, low leverage, and

0:35:30.200 --> 0:35:31.520
<v Speaker 1>really strong balance sheets.

0:35:31.800 --> 0:35:32.759
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, that's a really good point.

0:35:32.760 --> 0:35:34.400
<v Speaker 3>We've definitely seen that in a big way in the

0:35:34.440 --> 0:35:36.719
<v Speaker 3>retail sector in terms of some that have done well,

0:35:36.760 --> 0:35:38.640
<v Speaker 3>some that have not. Tells you a lot about kind

0:35:38.680 --> 0:35:41.880
<v Speaker 3>of what's top of mind for consumers, and you're right, fundamentally,

0:35:41.880 --> 0:35:44.160
<v Speaker 3>you got to look at what their businesses and how

0:35:44.200 --> 0:35:45.759
<v Speaker 3>it's doing, because you can't kind of throw them all

0:35:45.800 --> 0:35:49.279
<v Speaker 3>in one bucket. Having said that, you do like Amazon,

0:35:49.800 --> 0:35:52.400
<v Speaker 3>tell us about your thoughts on that one, and I

0:35:52.440 --> 0:35:53.200
<v Speaker 3>mean the Beheamoth.

0:35:53.280 --> 0:35:55.280
<v Speaker 6>It feels like when it comes to retail.

0:35:56.200 --> 0:35:59.360
<v Speaker 1>It is it is, and you know, it's very broadly

0:35:59.400 --> 0:36:02.840
<v Speaker 1>held when you look at Amazon, though historically it's really

0:36:03.160 --> 0:36:06.160
<v Speaker 1>it's gone through trading ranges and then it's broken out,

0:36:06.280 --> 0:36:09.160
<v Speaker 1>and then a trading range and it's broken out breaking out.

0:36:09.200 --> 0:36:11.960
<v Speaker 1>And so when we look at Amazon. It's trading right

0:36:12.000 --> 0:36:13.760
<v Speaker 1>now at the same level that it was in twenty

0:36:13.840 --> 0:36:16.239
<v Speaker 1>twenty one. And so when you peel it back and

0:36:16.280 --> 0:36:18.359
<v Speaker 1>you look at the different divisions with an Amazon, they're

0:36:18.400 --> 0:36:22.800
<v Speaker 1>all hitting on and they're hitting on all cylinders. Aws.

0:36:22.880 --> 0:36:25.560
<v Speaker 1>For example, we expect sales to be up seventeen percent

0:36:25.640 --> 0:36:29.640
<v Speaker 1>year every year. We see expanding margins in the e

0:36:29.640 --> 0:36:33.719
<v Speaker 1>commerce business, and for their digital advertising, we expect it

0:36:34.080 --> 0:36:36.400
<v Speaker 1>to be up twenty four percent year every year. So

0:36:36.480 --> 0:36:38.960
<v Speaker 1>Amazon's doing a lot of things right, And if you

0:36:39.000 --> 0:36:40.360
<v Speaker 1>don't already own it, we think you should.

0:36:40.960 --> 0:36:43.480
<v Speaker 4>Okay, no, it's not you don't think it's too late.

0:36:44.840 --> 0:36:48.280
<v Speaker 1>No, No, Amazon, it's trading around forty times forward earnings.

0:36:49.160 --> 0:36:50.719
<v Speaker 1>And again it's trading at the same level that it

0:36:50.800 --> 0:36:54.160
<v Speaker 1>was in twenty twenty one. Amazon's always trading at at

0:36:54.200 --> 0:36:56.799
<v Speaker 1>an expensive multiple. It doesn't mean you won't make money

0:36:56.840 --> 0:36:57.040
<v Speaker 1>in it.

0:36:57.160 --> 0:36:59.239
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's an interesting chart, right, I'm just pulling it

0:36:59.320 --> 0:37:01.640
<v Speaker 3>up on the Bloomberg and just to paint a picture.

0:37:01.680 --> 0:37:02.680
<v Speaker 6>It's kind of a v chart.

0:37:02.719 --> 0:37:04.880
<v Speaker 3>If you will, you look at where it was back

0:37:04.960 --> 0:37:07.719
<v Speaker 3>in twenty twenty one, you're right, like, we're back at

0:37:07.719 --> 0:37:10.360
<v Speaker 3>the levels we are today, and it took a big

0:37:10.440 --> 0:37:12.480
<v Speaker 3>hit going all the way down to kind of late

0:37:12.560 --> 0:37:14.239
<v Speaker 3>last year, which we saw with a lot of names

0:37:14.239 --> 0:37:16.440
<v Speaker 3>certainly kind of bottoming out last year, and then we've

0:37:16.480 --> 0:37:17.520
<v Speaker 3>seen it come up, so a.

0:37:18.040 --> 0:37:20.080
<v Speaker 4>Real v if you will, can you give us thirty

0:37:20.120 --> 0:37:21.600
<v Speaker 4>seconds on Goldman Sachs real quick?

0:37:22.800 --> 0:37:23.440
<v Speaker 8>Goldman's one of.

0:37:23.440 --> 0:37:26.200
<v Speaker 1>Our top pics right now. When you look at CEO sentiment,

0:37:26.480 --> 0:37:30.000
<v Speaker 1>it's improving. A year ago, three quarters of CEOs thought

0:37:30.000 --> 0:37:32.080
<v Speaker 1>that we would see a recession in the next twelve months.

0:37:32.400 --> 0:37:35.279
<v Speaker 1>Now less than a third believe so. So when we

0:37:35.280 --> 0:37:38.480
<v Speaker 1>see M and A and IPO activity pickup, Goldman is

0:37:38.520 --> 0:37:41.239
<v Speaker 1>going to be a beneficiary. They're already doing well on

0:37:41.320 --> 0:37:44.920
<v Speaker 1>earnings from their advisory business, and we think that that

0:37:45.000 --> 0:37:47.080
<v Speaker 1>activity will spur additional growth.

0:37:47.200 --> 0:37:47.680
<v Speaker 6>It's cheap.

0:37:47.719 --> 0:37:50.040
<v Speaker 1>It's only trading at about twelve times earnings and about

0:37:50.040 --> 0:37:52.520
<v Speaker 1>one point one times changeable book value, so we think

0:37:52.560 --> 0:37:54.360
<v Speaker 1>it's a good investment.

0:37:54.480 --> 0:37:55.400
<v Speaker 6>Just a basic metric.

0:37:55.440 --> 0:37:58.000
<v Speaker 3>It's up about sixteen percent so far here in twenty

0:37:58.040 --> 0:38:00.440
<v Speaker 3>twenty five. I look at the KDW Bank Index. Not

0:38:00.480 --> 0:38:02.520
<v Speaker 3>always apples to apples, but none else. It's only up

0:38:02.520 --> 0:38:04.640
<v Speaker 3>about seven percent. There's a lot more names in there,

0:38:05.080 --> 0:38:08.120
<v Speaker 3>including some of the kind of maybe smaller players. All right,

0:38:08.160 --> 0:38:10.239
<v Speaker 3>Canna leave it there, Hey Brook, Thank you. Brook May

0:38:10.360 --> 0:38:13.560
<v Speaker 3>managing partner at the wealth management firm Evans May Wealth

0:38:13.719 --> 0:38:17.120
<v Speaker 3>a billion in assets under management, joining us from Indiana firm.

0:38:17.480 --> 0:38:22.120
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:38:22.280 --> 0:38:25.960
<v Speaker 2>and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday

0:38:26.000 --> 0:38:29.640
<v Speaker 2>afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

0:38:29.680 --> 0:38:33.000
<v Speaker 2>the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App.

0:38:33.040 --> 0:38:36.120
<v Speaker 2>You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

0:38:36.200 --> 0:38:38.440
<v Speaker 2>and always on the Bloomberg Joermalone