1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Term Keene, Jay Lee. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, 3 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com and of course on the Bloomberg. Joining 5 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: us here in Westminster alongside Tom Keene and might sap 6 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: Jonathan Farin pleased to say its Adam Wager from the 7 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: UK in a changing Europe alongside try to greet them Ellen, 8 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: let's talk about it fast forward to We need to 9 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: understand and try and get a little bit of clarity 10 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: of what the Prime Minister wants, and I think Boris 11 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: Johnson knows what he wants. I think we managed to 12 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: get to this stage. We had a Breaston election without 13 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: really interrogating whether Boris Johnson would try and extend the 14 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: transition period beyond whether he would try and go for 15 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: a sort of bare bones free and a manifesto, isn't it. 16 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: He's not gonna extends though, but he's got a huge 17 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: round of political capital now and I think he it's possible, 18 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: and I think people in this party are saying that 19 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: he could just sort of forget about that manifesto commitment 20 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: when it gets to June, say you're going to say 21 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 1: that the EU are being intransident and try and push 22 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: that a transition period back a couple of years, and 23 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 1: I think that would give him a lot of scope 24 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 1: for maneuver. That's the option that's open to him, and 25 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: there's other or not. He will, he'll, he'll do that. 26 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,479 Speaker 1: Boris Johnson is a very flexible and adaptable politician. That's 27 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 1: his key to his strength. Well, which Boris will show 28 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 1: up that's so hard at the matter and me into 29 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 1: changing Europe. It's all sort of changing Boris, isn't it. Yeah? Yeah, yeah, 30 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,000 Speaker 1: I think why? I think I think that Boris Johnson 31 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:33,919 Speaker 1: at heart is someone that probably would like to flip 32 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 1: back towards sort of one nation sender ground. But it's 33 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: not one. I mean, he got Christians, Scotland, Northern Ireland 34 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: is shockingly unique this morning. It is not one nation, 35 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: isn't Yeah? I mean it Boris Shohnson had any strategy 36 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: and spend the next couple of years really focusing on 37 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: uniting the United Kingdom because the only thing that could 38 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 1: they could really really derail Boris Johnson in the next 39 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: five years is another independence referinum in Scotland and losing that, 40 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: I mean his position then would be untenable. That's the 41 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,559 Speaker 1: only thing that can actually, you know, stop a five 42 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:09,119 Speaker 1: years of strong Boris shots in government. Now, sta let's 43 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: talk about the Frice action, Sterling bid, the pounds, stronger 44 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 1: utilities really really ripping higher here in the United Kingdom. 45 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: When he talked about the mid caps, the banks as 46 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: well in the UK too. The perception over the last 47 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 1: three years, Trevor and I wonder if you share it, 48 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 1: is that there is this wall of capital waited to 49 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: come back into the UK once we resolve some of 50 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: these issues. Have we resolved those issues to the extent 51 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: that waller capital starts to come back into the UK. Well, 52 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: I think you've you've seen the pound move up and 53 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,799 Speaker 1: moved up about two percent last night on the exit poll. 54 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 1: It's given up half of those games already. It's not 55 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: a very big move, so you can take from that, 56 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: but the markets were expecting a Johnson majority, if not 57 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,960 Speaker 1: this big. I think that there will be money coming 58 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:49,399 Speaker 1: back in, but I think the degree of that investment 59 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: pickup is going to be limited. This is the heart 60 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: of the matter. Trevor, You've been doing this for years, 61 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,799 Speaker 1: not only applying a wealth management and asset on occasion, 62 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:02,239 Speaker 1: but thinking about where money clothes. How do you flow 63 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 1: money to the labor areas of this nation that just 64 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: voted for Boris Charlton. What's the mechanism to do that 65 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 1: fiscal policy because obviously, if we do go out with 66 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: a sort of bare bones trade deal at the end 67 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:17,959 Speaker 1: of next year, if Johnson wants to get that behind 68 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: him so you can move on to other things, he's 69 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: going to have to oil the system. Okay, what is 70 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:31,080 Speaker 1: the fiscal policy that helps life. You've got to have 71 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: increased government spending. You've got to have maybe targeted tax cuts. 72 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: I think we've We've just learned that all of the 73 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: parties were splurging the cash in their manifestoes and the 74 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 1: guilt market didn't blink. So there's much more capacity for 75 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: borrowing and spending the beach. First, the Conservative Party has 76 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: has a news consistituously that they didn't have for much 77 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: of the last part years. I mean we're talking about parts, 78 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 1: we're talking about instituencies, Tom but for much of the 79 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 1: last century, the Conservative Party were never in and now 80 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 1: they are. I'm going to the three of you because 81 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: I'm the foreigner here. Trillion dollar deficits. There's no one 82 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: who's a deficit park in Washington. Is that what we're 83 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: gonna see here? And you may they're not going to 84 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 1: get the trillion, But is it bull Well, the guilt 85 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 1: market is not there, twether should it be? Well? I mean, 86 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: in the end, the guilt market will respond more to 87 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: inflation expectations and interest rate expectations. And because China is 88 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 1: going through the structural slowdown in the background, you can't 89 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: get a good inflation going and at the moment governments 90 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,840 Speaker 1: can load up on debt. If China comes firing back, 91 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,799 Speaker 1: commodity prices arising, inflation goes up, then there's a reckoning. 92 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: I think the question is whether or not Bishton tries 93 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 1: to square the circle he's got with his political coalition 94 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: now by going down the economic route and trying to 95 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: you know, give some some of tach release and so on, 96 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: whether he just tries to double down on the on 97 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: the social populism that he's that he's won this election. Yeah, 98 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 1: maybe that's the way they've actually continued let's come back 99 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: and I want to come back and advanced that point forward. 100 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 1: Ellen Wager with US researcher at the United Kingdom UK 101 00:04:56,080 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 1: and Changing Europe. Trevor Grifton with US Royal London Asset Manager, 102 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 1: Rosalind Matheson with us running all of our government coverage. 103 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: Ben Ritchie of averaging standard stuffed by this morning as well, Rosin. 104 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 1: The fiscal stimulus to me is key, is it immediate? Urgent? 105 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: Is it? Does it wait six weeks and there's a 106 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: State of the Union address or he speaks to everyone 107 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: and says this is the budget. When does the budget 108 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 1: get clarity? Expecting that obviously in the early part of 109 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: next year. The first thing is to get Brexit through 110 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: Parliament and then he needs to start talking some numbers 111 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 1: for his own budget. But a lot of that you 112 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:46,919 Speaker 1: can expect to be put forward, it will say, contingent 113 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 1: on X y Z happening with Brexit with the EU. 114 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: A lot of the money has to come in to 115 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: fund some of that, including on the health service. It 116 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: wasn't just labor saying when you used that money from 117 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: Brussels to pay for some of the stuff. It was 118 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: the government as Well's the other thing but got to 119 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 1: think about is something that never touched on what does 120 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: the cabinet look like in the coming weeks, how does 121 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:07,600 Speaker 1: it change. On top of that, the Governor of the 122 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: Bank of England leaves around the same time the UK 123 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,799 Speaker 1: leaves the EU at the January next year. Any idea 124 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: how these kind of issues materialized in the coming days, 125 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: coming weeks, We will be interesting to see how cabinet 126 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: may move our ship. But to be honest, he already 127 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 1: had most of his die hard supporters in there. Remember 128 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: when he removed thereason may form a bit of a word. 129 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: He essentially fired a bunch of Tories who thought were 130 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,119 Speaker 1: against him and they sat in Parliament as independence until 131 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: yesterday until the election, so he rewarded. He's in a 132 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 1: circle those with very much hard brexiteers from the far 133 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: right of the party. But there are also some of 134 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 1: his closest confidence So you may not expect see cabinet 135 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: move all shift that much. To be honest, this early 136 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:46,839 Speaker 1: in the game. Ben overnight, when we caught up with 137 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 1: people in the FX market talking about what comes next 138 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: in the rate cup, call came up pretty quickly. The 139 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: Bank of England has got seventy five basis points to 140 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,039 Speaker 1: play with. Do they follow through on a cut anytime soon. Well, 141 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: I don't think so. I think after I think after yesterday, 142 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 1: we've put a lot of more stability. I think that 143 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: the Bank of Being that made a fairly clear at 144 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: their latest update that they were sort of on a 145 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 1: waiting brief and if anything, I suspect we're probably going 146 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: to be talking about rates going up rather than going 147 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 1: down from here. The Bank of England, I guess plays 148 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: a part, But it comes down to that analysis of 149 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: fiscal space. Rosalind and a team are written endless articles 150 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: about this nation, this nation frame, the fiscal space of 151 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: the United Kingdom right now. Well, I think it all 152 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: comes down to market confidence at the end of the 153 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: daytime and I think if the paper issuing, I think 154 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: that's the key thing. And I think expectations have changed, 155 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: and so the ability to run a deficit of one 156 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 1: to percent something like that, which we which we've been 157 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: shooting for in recent years, has probably widened. And I 158 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 1: think the capacity of bond markets and debt markets to 159 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: take that has expanded. And I think there's an appetite 160 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 1: to see fiscal stimulus from governments and from investors to 161 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: see that as a responsible action. It's opposed to an 162 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 1: irresponsible one, and I think that shifted, and I think 163 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 1: that gives government more flexibility and the room from here. 164 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 1: The United States is proof that you can do that 165 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: in a big way. Is that the privilege of the 166 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: United States or can the UK follow suit? Well? I 167 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: think the UK one of the remarkable of things. I 168 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: think throughout the whole Brexits you've got saga has been 169 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 1: the UK bonniels have remained so low and no stage 170 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 1: has been the concern that inflation is going to rip, 171 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 1: that confidence is going to be lost. And I think 172 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,679 Speaker 1: with you know, UK TENUA guilts at sevent basis points, 173 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: I think the market saying, yes, we do have episode 174 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 1: for the UK paper. Sure we might not have the 175 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: extortionate privilege of the United States, but we're still a 176 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: well regarded issue and so I would expect that the 177 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 1: government to look to take advantage of that, because this 178 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: conservative government is not going to want to put up 179 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: taxes any more than they can do, and so I 180 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: think borrowing is going to be the way forward for them. Glass. 181 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 1: Let me ask you a treasure Raphael question. I'm sure 182 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 1: i'll get you in trouble. Is it an existential crisis 183 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: for the United Kingdom that they've come this far, now 184 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,959 Speaker 1: they've got to go forward and they have to forget austerity. 185 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: Is society here lucked psychologically into austerity or can they 186 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 1: actually wound the stimulus? Can they mentally get there? We 187 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: did see the reason, for example, acknowledge that the austerity, 188 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: even though she was a big champion of austerity, was 189 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: perhaps something that voters had felt have been taken too far. 190 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: And you've seen that with just waiting times at hospitals. 191 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 1: We saw in a very powerful way during the campaign itself. 192 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: You've seen questions around jobs, around crime, around education as 193 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 1: a whole, and there's a feeling that yes, perhaps there 194 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: had to be a bit careful, particularly through this very 195 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 1: long and protracted on certain period when Brexit was being 196 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,559 Speaker 1: debated within the UK. But if we get to the 197 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 1: point that Brexit is happening, perhaps that creates a certainty 198 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 1: to have more of a discussion around spending on some 199 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 1: of these key areas, and certainly the labor voters who 200 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 1: swung behind Boris Johnson last that we'll be expecting it 201 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 1: before we move this conversation on to other issues. Just 202 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 1: getting some reporting around the Bank of England, according to 203 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: officials that the new Bank of England governor will not 204 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,679 Speaker 1: be named this coming Friday. This coming Friday, as in today, 205 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: I've lost track of where we have been up all 206 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 1: night to UK government officials discussing the timing of that appointment. 207 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 1: We won't find out today. Will it be a different 208 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 1: Bank of England official with the size of the Can 209 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:57,079 Speaker 1: you wonder if we're going to have an official that 210 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 1: believes in Brexit in a way that perhaps Governor Krni, 211 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 1: at least he's accused of does not. General adliance for 212 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 1: instances have been name. It has been a name circulating 213 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 1: in the city used to be the chief economists that 214 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 1: standard charted. So that's something to think about as well. 215 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: I think, for instance, stance for us just taking a 216 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 1: step back for a moment, equities rolling over the deal 217 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: between China and the United States in doubt. We've heard 218 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 1: from the U s side, just briefly the reporting suggesting 219 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: that the President is signed off on a proposal with 220 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: the Chinese, but at the moment very little. Welcome all 221 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 1: of you on Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio, roseland Myths 222 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 1: and with us with Bloomberg News and working in international 223 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 1: and government leadership there in ben Ritchie where us as 224 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 1: well with everything standard investment, Do you change anything? Are 225 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: you going to write a twenty page note or read 226 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 1: a twenty page note that's going to foreshoot a change 227 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 1: of the selection. Well, I think it's the combination of 228 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,560 Speaker 1: trade and the election. They're removed two of the bigger 229 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 1: issues that have hung over European equities for most of 230 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: the last couple of years. And so I think if 231 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 1: we are an environment where we have a Phase one deal, 232 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: whatever that actually means, but we reduce hostilities and the 233 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: perception of stability see and we take away Brexit as 234 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 1: a potential sort of cliff edge issue. And we also 235 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: start to see more governments across Europe move into fiscal expansion. 236 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: That's creating an environment that's going to be positive at 237 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 1: least for investor sentiment towards European equities, which has been 238 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 1: pretty dreadful for most of the last two year. And 239 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: assuming that we actually sort things out between the United 240 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:18,839 Speaker 1: States and China, we're just hearing from the Global Times 241 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: reporting that China will hold a press briefing today entrade talks. 242 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 1: We don't know where things are at all. In fact, 243 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 1: for many people, the last twenty four hours was reerily 244 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 1: similar to October eleventh. We're told we've got an agreement, 245 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 1: we don't have the details around it. It's a little 246 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 1: bit too premature to say the coast is clear for 247 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: risk assets going into next year when we've got nothing 248 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: on paper whatsoever. But I think we want to see 249 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 1: the deal agreed again. I think the contents of the 250 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:45,560 Speaker 1: deal are less relevant than that there is a deal 251 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 1: for market sentiment. I think that that there whereas and 252 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 1: what's of how much agricultural purchases, what they extend to, 253 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 1: what the protections are in around technology and patterns are 254 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: not so important as the fact that the agreement has 255 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 1: reached and that some degree of confidence can be restored 256 00:11:57,760 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 1: to corporate It's in a degreement. Just once slice though, 257 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: of a broader issue between China and the United States. 258 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 1: Let's look at what's happening at the moment over the 259 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: last two weeks alone. But one thing, one of the 260 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 1: few things that is agreed upon in DC right now 261 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 1: between Democrats and Republicans is a hard stance on China. 262 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:13,839 Speaker 1: You can see right now for the Chinese in the 263 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 1: past week alone, decoupling of supply chains is something not 264 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:21,319 Speaker 1: only happening, they're actively encouraging in China and the United States. 265 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:23,679 Speaker 1: I don't think whatever's agreed on this Phase one deal, 266 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it, that we can sit 267 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: here over the last two half months and say we 268 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: have a truce, Do we really have a truce just 269 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: because we agree on buying a little bit more agricultural good. 270 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 1: I think that, I think that, I think that's absolutely right, 271 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 1: and it's it's just one part of it of a 272 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 1: longer frame, and it's likely to be an ongoing rivalry 273 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: that stretches on for for decades from here. But I 274 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:42,719 Speaker 1: think in terms of the disruption to corporate confidence, to 275 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 1: corporate investment that we've seen, I think this is an 276 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:47,440 Speaker 1: important step in trying to ameliorate that does some degree. 277 00:12:47,800 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: I'm Richie of Aberdeen. We can catch up from Brussels. 278 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:07,199 Speaker 1: Maria Demetrius, Deputy director of Brugal. She's still could be 279 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: with us and alongside us here in London, Ben Richie 280 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 1: of Abberdey Standard Investment. Maria, just to come to you initially, 281 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 1: ignore the sound all around me, the sirens here in London. 282 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 1: Your thoughts on how Brussels will respond in the coming 283 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: months with a UK British Prime Minister with a much 284 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 1: bigger majority here in the UK. Well, it was an 285 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 1: expected result. Actually, this is going to probably mean that 286 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: the Withdoral Agreement will pass. It will be voted in 287 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 1: the Parliament, which means in itself that we can start 288 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:41,760 Speaker 1: discussing the future trade deal. That is good news because 289 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: it's going to provide the certainty that the markets need. 290 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: So in that respect, this result is probably a solid 291 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: result in terms of being able to start to think 292 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 1: about the long term relationship. Maria took Canada WAP seven 293 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 1: years to come up with an agreement between the Canadians 294 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 1: and the EU. There's a leaf and I think it's 295 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 1: well placed that the UK can do it quicker. The 296 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: question how much quicker and what can it deal? Your 297 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: thoughts on a timeline, hire, Maria, How doable is all 298 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 1: of this? Well, that's a good point. Actually, a typical 299 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: trade deal of if you take any random couple of 300 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 1: countries that is, trying to strike a trade deal takes 301 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 1: more on that it takes a little bit more than 302 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: two years. So in that respect, yes, wanting to do 303 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: it everything in one year is rather ambitious. On the 304 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: other hand, so we know exactly what we expect, the 305 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 1: incentives are aligned. We both want good outcomes. So I 306 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: mean it could if you get your minds to it. 307 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: I think we could do it in less than that. 308 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 1: If it were to be blocked, there would be blocked 309 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 1: for administrative issues, and you know, it might take a 310 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: little bit more than that. But in principle, I don't 311 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 1: think why shouldn't be why you need the seven or 312 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: eight years to strike a de deal, be doing the 313 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 1: two Yeah, Maria, one of the unspoken things is a 314 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: changing of the guard within European trade leadership. Really talked 315 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: about him from Strasburg back to Brussels as well. Does 316 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 1: it matter here that their new individuals doing these discussions. No, 317 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 1: I don't think so. There's pure continuity here. I think 318 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 1: it would be it would be important to just know 319 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 1: what the next step is, so you know, first things first, 320 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 1: let's pass the withdrawal agreement with the majority of that 321 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 1: Premnister Johnson god yesterday. That probably will happen as soon 322 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 1: as this. As soon as this happened, then I think 323 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 1: the continuity will be ensured. Certainly from the EU side, 324 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 1: the negotiations will still happen by the same people. It 325 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 1: doesn't really matter that you have a change. God, right, Maria, 326 00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: thank you so much for the time this afternoon. Maria 327 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: Demetris is the deputy director of BROGL and we greatly 328 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: thank her and Brussels today with Ben Ritchie in with 329 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 1: the news for the heapphines really starting to change her 330 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: what we find a goal and I think we knew 331 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 1: it already. Making trade deals is really difficult. We're talked 332 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 1: about the United Kingdom and the EU on the timeline 333 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: of what twelve months to try and come up with 334 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,960 Speaker 1: a comprehensive free trade of agreement. Maybe if that's what 335 00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 1: the Prime Minister wants, talk to us about the ficulty 336 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:02,800 Speaker 1: not with the UK and the EU. The one that's 337 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 1: moving markets right now, the epicenter of things at the moment, 338 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: China and the United States. A lot of people think 339 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: risk is diminished going into next year. Do you feel 340 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: the same way? Well, I think yes, is the answer. 341 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 1: But I think we need to see this deal agreed 342 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 1: in some form. I think, as I said earlier, I 343 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 1: think the details are less relevant than the deal itself. 344 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 1: Um and can we see that perhaps by the end 345 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 1: of the year perhaps earlier in the start of next year. 346 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: Hopefully we can do. And I think that that puts 347 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: us in a reasonable place going forward. We started this 348 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 1: year worried about the effectiveness of monetary policy. We end 349 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: it feeling very differently about that. It's interesting because we 350 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: haven't seen a real pickup in the economic data worldwide, 351 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: in Europe or An Asia for that matter. I think 352 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: we're defining the effectiveness of monetary policy by what markets 353 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: do ensure. There is a channel into the real economy 354 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 1: from financial markets, that's clear, But I just wonder when 355 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: the global economy is going to start picking up and 356 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: what kind of recovery we have. Ultimately, Is it You shaped, 357 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 1: is it Oul shaped? What are you looking for in 358 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: the fundamentals the data in the coming mons. I think 359 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: at the moment we've started to see Tom Lindes of 360 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: improvement in you in European manufacturing data, so we've seen 361 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 1: stabilization and p M eyes stabilization industrial production. We haven't 362 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 1: yet seen an inflection upwards, but we but we've seen 363 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: some stabilization in those rates. Um and I guess the U. 364 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 1: S economy has continued to grow and develop in a 365 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 1: sort of similar way. To that, which it has done 366 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 1: for much of the last five or six years. Has 367 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: maybe got a little bit slow around the margins, but 368 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,120 Speaker 1: then we had that very strong jobs parently last week, 369 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,679 Speaker 1: so again it's in that band of be doing okay China. 370 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 1: I think again the some of the domestic consumption stats 371 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 1: that continue to be weak and we haven't really seen 372 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: a significant pickup. But I think a stabilization around the 373 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 1: trade war I think gives the capacity for European manufacturing 374 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,439 Speaker 1: to pick up what Q four we've seen lower for longer, 375 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 1: established and fixed income everybody's moving out, and also we're 376 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: waiting on international to come in, including an e M market. 377 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 1: It really didn't happen in the fourth quarter. What does 378 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 1: the signs you look for every day to link together 379 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 1: lower for longer with finally em coming up? Well, what 380 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 1: does what does the sign I want to see out 381 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 1: to know that's quite dim. Well, I think it's really 382 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 1: looking to China. I think that's the key, and I 383 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,159 Speaker 1: think if we just gross to I think I think 384 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 1: I think it's looking at the p M I and 385 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 1: the manufacturing data there. I think that's probably going to 386 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: be the key lead that starts to drive a lot 387 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: of a lot of the other global economies that are 388 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 1: the ones that have been struggling over the last sort 389 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 1: of twelve eighteen months as a result primarily of trade, 390 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 1: perhaps some other issues in there as well, But that 391 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:24,399 Speaker 1: that that, to my mind, is that is going to 392 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,879 Speaker 1: be the key sentimental driver for for European What do 393 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 1: you make of the big debate currently going into next 394 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 1: year the rest of the world versus say, the United States. 395 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 1: Overwhelmingly we've got used to a consensus forming looks on 396 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 1: the other side of the Atlantic sitting in New York 397 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 1: on Moll Street, that it's by the rest of the 398 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 1: world in twenty that's the story to get behind, is it. Well, 399 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:44,719 Speaker 1: I think it's been that story pretty much every year 400 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 1: for about the last ten years, and that's generally been wrong, right, 401 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 1: So I think I think as we look at it 402 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 1: from here, I think there's reasonable reasons to be more 403 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 1: enthused about European equities, particularly going into I think we've 404 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,359 Speaker 1: we've had a tough time in terms of certainly in 405 00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: terms of the manufacturing side of things. I'm pretty sure 406 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,400 Speaker 1: that's going to on as we moved through into next year. 407 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: We've seen an incredibly negative investor sentiment towards that market. 408 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,640 Speaker 1: I mean, can you buy the European banks? I don't 409 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: mean the interrupret this is so important. Could you buy 410 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 1: European banks at point to three and point three five failure? 411 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 1: Well you, well, you can do something. I'm not sure 412 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 1: that necessarily the ones you're gonna make loads of money 413 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 1: on over the next five to ten years. But I 414 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,439 Speaker 1: think there's enough attractive businesses within the European context. And 415 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 1: it's not just about valuation multiples. I think it's about 416 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 1: the earnings performance of these businesses. If we're in an 417 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: environment where actually we can see a better earnings environment 418 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 1: that can deliver a much better returns perhaps than that 419 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 1: we can see from the from the US, And that's 420 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:35,639 Speaker 1: what I think we're interested in next year in a 421 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 1: place decide of Ben Ricchie of Aberdeen Standard Investments, where 422 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 1: we stick in with us. Thanks for listening to the 423 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 424 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 425 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: Tom Keane Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. 426 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio