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Speaker 1: Member s I p C. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best of economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg Born On a Monday,
Speaker 1: the eighth of May. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: David Gura in New York, Tom Keen in Paris, where
Speaker 1: plans are underway for the inauguration of a new president,
Speaker 1: Centrist Dimmanuel MCom on s percent of the votes yesterday.
Speaker 1: Far right candidate Marine Leapann had Th mccuonne will take
Speaker 1: office on Sunday. In between now and then, we expect
Speaker 1: to get details on who will comprise his cabinet, and
Speaker 1: we'll be France's next Prime minister. On the show today,
Speaker 1: a host of great guests from France economists, political scientists
Speaker 1: and investors and Rocher Charma will join us here in
Speaker 1: New York, the chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley. I
Speaker 1: believe my co host Tom Keane has made his way
Speaker 1: from the TV studio to the radio. Sto, Tom, we
Speaker 1: have Bravo yesterday. That was a marathon performance, but well done.
Speaker 1: You was wonderful to capture the moment. David Gura on
Speaker 1: the River Sin as all of our listeners know that
Speaker 1: had the privilege of coming U to France, to be
Speaker 1: on the sand by the Eiffel Tower. Uh, it was
Speaker 1: just absolutely fabulous. And then to walk over later that
Speaker 1: evening to the Chasa Lise and to see the celebration,
Speaker 1: the horns hawky and the flags waving was really something.
Speaker 1: And of course we all saw the drama the Louver
Speaker 1: as well. David, what was the view from the U
Speaker 1: S What was your takeaway from the festivities in France? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean I think that we we were all looking
Speaker 1: to see obviously what this would mean domestically, what this
Speaker 1: is gonna mean for politics in France. But for those
Speaker 1: of us who watched what happened in the Netherlands unfold
Speaker 1: and wondered if we would see a similar move away
Speaker 1: from from the populist currence in France. It was confirmation
Speaker 1: with the fact that maybe the strength of that populist
Speaker 1: movement wasn't what we thought it was just a few
Speaker 1: months ago. Let me bring in our steam Gas. I
Speaker 1: guess if you start strong, would you like to do
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Surveillance. You can do no better in France
Speaker 1: than Maurice Levy, his decades of experience at Publiss, his
Speaker 1: visibility within the world at Davos and other organizations, but
Speaker 1: of course, far more importantly his affection for his France more.
Speaker 1: Its wonderful to have you with us, with David Gura
Speaker 1: and in New York. You gave us a wonderful history
Speaker 1: lesson earlier of de gal through this fifth Republic, we
Speaker 1: spoke of a sixth Republic and the generational change. How
Speaker 1: does Mr mccam bring the rest of France towards them?
Speaker 1: It is a fractuous nation, isn't it. First of all,
Speaker 1: thank you for having me. I'm very happy to share
Speaker 1: if you use and what happened. I think that imagine mccon,
Speaker 1: we disrupt everything, and they will try at least to
Speaker 1: disrupt everything. We never had a president so young in
Speaker 1: France since Napoleon, and we never had someone who has
Speaker 1: the will and the determination to change things and to
Speaker 1: address the real issues. We are facing a lot of
Speaker 1: problems and issues, and if you look only at the
Speaker 1: internal situation of France, we need to fix an employment
Speaker 1: which is a very high, more than ten percent. We
Speaker 1: need to fix the depth which is more than one percent.
Speaker 1: We need to fix the taxes and all the social
Speaker 1: charges which are weighing too much in the growth of
Speaker 1: our country, and we have to change liberal laws. When
Speaker 1: you look at everything that he has on his plate,
Speaker 1: you can see that it is a big, big undertaking
Speaker 1: that he has in front of him. So we all
Speaker 1: wish that it will be successful. We are all very
Speaker 1: supportive because it is hope that happened yesterday, more than
Speaker 1: the election, more than any of the former election. Maybe
Speaker 1: the only one which is comparable and very different at
Speaker 1: the same time is when Mita has been elected in
Speaker 1: eighty one, as the Socialists have been out of government
Speaker 1: for more than twenty years, it was huge for a
Speaker 1: lot of for half of France. Here it's something which
Speaker 1: is very different because it is first and foremost with
Speaker 1: the young generation, and you have seen that yesterday at
Speaker 1: the Louver with all these young black blob as we say,
Speaker 1: where you have the Black, the Arabs and the Caucasian
Speaker 1: the classication together and this has been the first since
Speaker 1: the World Cup of and we see that there is
Speaker 1: a momentum of hope which is quite uniquet. We're bringing
Speaker 1: David Curry in New York. David More, it's great to
Speaker 1: speak with you once again. Of course we know of
Speaker 1: your your background in advertising. The message so important to you.
Speaker 1: What was it about this candidate's message that resonated so
Speaker 1: well and so widely in France. I think that the
Speaker 1: message was himself. I think that the message was not
Speaker 1: so much because when you go through the program, it
Speaker 1: has not been a program which came as one un
Speaker 1: solid program at the beginning of his journey. It was himself.
Speaker 1: It was the rejuvenation and I think that the fact
Speaker 1: that it was rejuvenating and breaking down all the silos.
Speaker 1: And it was also this very important message which was
Speaker 1: negosh need what no left, not right and it didn't
Speaker 1: want to be portrayed as a representative of the right
Speaker 1: wing or the left wing. He didn't want to be
Speaker 1: seen as a socialist and no at a as only conservative,
Speaker 1: and I think that the Negosh need what is probably
Speaker 1: what has been the most important message which has been
Speaker 1: well received by most of the young people. They didn't
Speaker 1: see with the old parties, a representation of the hopes
Speaker 1: and who they are. It was some sixty four some
Speaker 1: years ago that you came from Morocco explained to us
Speaker 1: where the ghosts of the Arab world will will go
Speaker 1: for France if we look at Algiers, the collapse of
Speaker 1: Algiers and all of the decolonization, what will happen now
Speaker 1: to that historic tension that we see in Paris and
Speaker 1: frankly polarizing around all of France. How will that change
Speaker 1: under mcrow? When I arrived, there was a Chinda and
Speaker 1: that was the first born in Morocco because my family
Speaker 1: was a refugee because of the war. So it's I'm
Speaker 1: not a fair representative. I understand that, but you've lived that,
Speaker 1: You've lived showing up yes, definitely, And I think that
Speaker 1: along the years we have created the situation where we
Speaker 1: opposed generation to generation, communities to other communities, and instead
Speaker 1: of trying to unite the people and to create one
Speaker 1: single country with one single community, everything that has been done,
Speaker 1: if you look at the last fifty years was to
Speaker 1: fragment the country not only between refugees and French roots people,
Speaker 1: it is also between the people coming from the countryside
Speaker 1: and the people in the cities, the people of the
Speaker 1: universities and the people who have no education of very
Speaker 1: little education. All these has created the situation where we
Speaker 1: have a highly fragmented country. And despite the will that
Speaker 1: a Lord of sar Cozy or even she had had
Speaker 1: to change the situation, no one has clearly a dry
Speaker 1: So I was talking to David Kerr about to see
Speaker 1: the other day David can jump in here very quickly
Speaker 1: because David, this is where Mr McCraw has to be
Speaker 1: different than these previous leaders. Yeah, you know you mentioned
Speaker 1: here more he's just a moment ago that he's going
Speaker 1: to try to disrupt everything. How difficult is it going
Speaker 1: to be for him to do all of this. We
Speaker 1: can talk about the minutia of getting parliamentary votes and
Speaker 1: all that, but just to keep up this momentum, how
Speaker 1: hard is that everything? We start with the choice of
Speaker 1: the Prime minister, because mccon would not be able to
Speaker 1: run for election and he will not be able to
Speaker 1: do anything. Els that one or two speeches on TV
Speaker 1: to for the lationship. Would you serve as Prime Minister.
Speaker 1: I'm sure you're on the short list. I'm not because
Speaker 1: what he needs to do first, I'm too old. And
Speaker 1: the second aspect is what he needs to do is
Speaker 1: to have somebody who is experienced with the political parties
Speaker 1: and who knows how to run elicious lative election, which
Speaker 1: is very different from a presidential and he has to
Speaker 1: have somebody who really very well versed. He has some options,
Speaker 1: and the probably that he's one of the options to leave,
Speaker 1: We've got to leave it there. Thank you so much,
Speaker 1: Thank you generous, Thank you Bloomberg. Today, I'm Bloomberg Television,
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Radio. He needs no introduction worldwide. Marias Lee,
Speaker 1: they of course of Boobliss, David Gurr and New York.
Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene in Paris. Stay with us. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: Continue to cover and analyze the results of the French
Speaker 1: election yesterday. Richard Datis joins us now formerly of the
Speaker 1: Booblist Group, now chairman of Richard Datius and Associates. Here
Speaker 1: in our Bloomberg eleven three oh studios in New York.
Speaker 1: It's great to have you with us, and I wonder
Speaker 1: if we could start with just your sense of the
Speaker 1: lasting effects of this campaign For an outside observer here
Speaker 1: in New York, it lasted a long time. Just judging
Speaker 1: from that that last debate, it was at times acrimonious.
Speaker 1: Where do we go from here? How do how do
Speaker 1: we move past the legacy of this campaign? We we
Speaker 1: definitely understood now that move than I would say to
Speaker 1: million people in France are ready to vote for an
Speaker 1: extreme And this is I think, unfoldedly the first lesson,
Speaker 1: populism is really next door. And despite the election of
Speaker 1: President mccron, we still be very cautious about what these people,
Speaker 1: these voters could represent and could also make as a
Speaker 1: constraint for the new elected president. Two, I would say,
Speaker 1: implement what he has in mind. So this is I think.
Speaker 1: And for the first lesson, the second lesson is that
Speaker 1: France and this is the half full glass I say,
Speaker 1: which we have to think in mind. To keep in mind,
Speaker 1: is that a very young, talented man who came from
Speaker 1: the private sector, not at all from the political system,
Speaker 1: very audacious, was able to make it, which means that
Speaker 1: France is able or so to achieve great things and
Speaker 1: some people are still are now dreaming and hoping that.
Speaker 1: I would say, in addition of the American dream, you
Speaker 1: can have the French dream. So everything is possible also
Speaker 1: in France, which I think it's very positive and and
Speaker 1: I think that the new elected president, thanks to his days,
Speaker 1: very audacious. Thanks to his I would say, he has
Speaker 1: nothing to lose at the end of that day. So
Speaker 1: I hope that he will be able to implement the
Speaker 1: reforms which are really absolutely needed in France for years
Speaker 1: and years and years. Let's tackle those in kind. Listening
Speaker 1: to the speech by the president elect last night, he
Speaker 1: said he hoped that voters would never have to way
Speaker 1: voting for extremist candidates. Again, when you look at Marine
Speaker 1: Lapan and what happens next to her and to her party,
Speaker 1: what do you say She's she's positioning herself as the
Speaker 1: opposition figure here says that her party will be the
Speaker 1: opposition party. What what's your sense of the future of
Speaker 1: the National Front in France. You know, she's a tough cookie,
Speaker 1: and she knew how to reinvent the party, and she
Speaker 1: knew how to attract more voters. And even yesterday she
Speaker 1: opened a window saying that maybe she will even rebrand
Speaker 1: the party. So she sees herself and she has a
Speaker 1: great window of opportunity because the Right Party is quite divided.
Speaker 1: The Socialist Party is also more than divided, so she
Speaker 1: has huge room to become, I would say, the first
Speaker 1: party of opposition. And this is quite scary because, as
Speaker 1: you perfectly said, the presidential debate was really a demonstration
Speaker 1: that she doesn't care about even lying, even putting wrong
Speaker 1: facts on the table, just to destabilize everyone. Unfortunately, people,
Speaker 1: friends who are job less, hopeless. It's it's an easy, easy, easy,
Speaker 1: I would say, community to say, duced with his fake's arguments. Richard,
Speaker 1: good morning from your Paris. Wonderful to have your respective
Speaker 1: uh today. This has been one of my themes here.
Speaker 1: Is there a tinge of Anglo American and Mr McCraw
Speaker 1: or is he going to be a uniquely French president?
Speaker 1: Oh no, I think he will be a global leader.
Speaker 1: I think he is definitely and I hope that the
Speaker 1: very In two weeks, as you know, the G seven
Speaker 1: meetings happened in Sicilia, and this will be for him
Speaker 1: the best opportunity to show to his pairs from the US,
Speaker 1: including the U S President, including the Prime Minister of
Speaker 1: Canada and many others who sent him nice congratulations message
Speaker 1: yesterday that they have to count with him. And and
Speaker 1: he's a global citizen, so you know, during his campaign
Speaker 1: he did very well in the US, he did very
Speaker 1: well in the UK with the French jas Bora. So
Speaker 1: I think he has a definitely a vision to be
Speaker 1: part of the globe. Richards will come back in just
Speaker 1: a moment, David Gura, it's a guess that we would
Speaker 1: always speak to in Paris. But you're joining his intendance
Speaker 1: in our studios in New York City's John Tucker. And
Speaker 1: I joined his company very much here in our Bloomberg
Speaker 1: eleventh three oh studis Richard Attius with us here chairman
Speaker 1: of Richard Addis and Associates. And I was looking back
Speaker 1: reading rereading a profile by Alyssa Reubin of The New
Speaker 1: York Times of the now president elect, and she wrote,
Speaker 1: he's gambling that his postpartisan philosophy matches the national mood.
Speaker 1: What was it about politics in France at this point
Speaker 1: that encouraged voters to look outside the traditional party system?
Speaker 1: Where does the Republican Party, the Socialist Party go from here?
Speaker 1: In light of the fact that this upstart party has
Speaker 1: seen its candidate become the next president. In fact, uh
Speaker 1: VCS was really predictable for more than one year. I
Speaker 1: would say all the French citizens were explaining that they
Speaker 1: were not anymore attracted by the traditional political parties. So
Speaker 1: definitely they have to reinvent themselves, no questions. And the
Speaker 1: reason why Emmanuel Macron was elected is that definitely he
Speaker 1: symbolized not just the fact that he's a young potential leader,
Speaker 1: but he's really a centrist. So he's a guy who
Speaker 1: was able to be a catalyst between I would say,
Speaker 1: some leaders from the right party and some leaders from
Speaker 1: the left party. And this is happening so today, and
Speaker 1: you know, many people say it France is an unmanageable
Speaker 1: country for years, but why it was? It is an
Speaker 1: unmanageable country because the French people, frankly speaking, they want
Speaker 1: to do not to be seen as left or right.
Speaker 1: They are much more open and they want to be
Speaker 1: seen more as a centrists. And this is what is happening.
Speaker 1: So if in six weeks from now, Emmanuel mccron is
Speaker 1: able to win the parliament elections, this will be a
Speaker 1: tremendous change in the whole political field in France because
Speaker 1: a party which was created just a year ago able
Speaker 1: to get the majority. This will really show that the
Speaker 1: whole landscape, the political landscape, has changed, and I think
Speaker 1: this will happen, and this could happen because this is
Speaker 1: the only way to really fight and resist against the extremism,
Speaker 1: because the Front National is just not a populist party,
Speaker 1: is an extremist party, and this has to be understood.
Speaker 1: You know, when when you watch the presidential debate a
Speaker 1: few days ago, you really realized that Marine le pen
Speaker 1: is not Maybe she customized herself with some cosmetic to
Speaker 1: be a little bit different from her the perception we
Speaker 1: had from her father, but in fact I think she's
Speaker 1: absolutely identical. She was a pathological liar during this election.
Speaker 1: I can't tell you really by saying some facts which
Speaker 1: are absolutely wrong. It was not about fake news. It
Speaker 1: was about fake informations which were really really dangerous for
Speaker 1: people who are just watching. And you have no clue
Speaker 1: about what is really the reality of the economy, the
Speaker 1: reality of many other aspects of the French economy and
Speaker 1: the French I would say position in foreign policy, Richard,
Speaker 1: how how do you how do you keep political engagement
Speaker 1: high in France. In other words, you have enthusiasm for
Speaker 1: a young candidate now president elect. You look though at
Speaker 1: a court of the French electric staining from voting in
Speaker 1: this election, pushing ahead of the parliamentary election. That Mr
Speaker 1: McConn is going to need people to stay engaged with
Speaker 1: what he's doing. It's it's a very important question, you know.
Speaker 1: He I think today Emmanuel mccon should do whatever is
Speaker 1: possible to become a brand. When Prime Minister Trudeau Trudeau
Speaker 1: was elected in Canada, I remember that many people were
Speaker 1: asking is Canada could become again a brand thanks to
Speaker 1: Trudeau who would like to play a big role. Definitely.
Speaker 1: This is the same opportunity which is offered to Emmanuel
Speaker 1: mcron So he has to become a brand, and he
Speaker 1: has to support and to make friends. Becoming back I
Speaker 1: would say on the on the global road Map, and
Speaker 1: this will I think encourage many people to come back
Speaker 1: in in supporting politics and be interested by politics because
Speaker 1: he will be a new voice, a new language, and
Speaker 1: I think he will not just reinvent the political field,
Speaker 1: but he has also to reinvent the dialogue between the society,
Speaker 1: the use and the political leaders. For me, he is
Speaker 1: probably a potential public private partnership you know symbol. And
Speaker 1: because he knows very well the private sector, he is
Speaker 1: probably the first elected president and the first president who
Speaker 1: is really coming from a great experience in the private sector.
Speaker 1: So we need to reconsiderate the civil society and the
Speaker 1: political society, the prime minister position and friends, Richard explain
Speaker 1: to our global audience what the prime minister does in
Speaker 1: France and will it be someone like Mr McCraw or
Speaker 1: do is he bringing someone from his diverse outside. This is,
Speaker 1: as you know, since you're in Paris, the most important
Speaker 1: question that everyone is asking today is who will be
Speaker 1: the next prime minister. Prime Minister in France is a
Speaker 1: very important job. He's a guy who is running the government.
Speaker 1: He's a guy who is implementing i would say, the
Speaker 1: strategy and the policies, and he has more less full
Speaker 1: power to run the country at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: because he's not just a ghost of the president. And
Speaker 1: and this is why everyone is waiting to know who
Speaker 1: will be the next prime minister, which would be probably
Speaker 1: announced in one week from now, but also who will
Speaker 1: be the winning party in the parliament election in six
Speaker 1: weeks from now, because by definition the winner, the party
Speaker 1: who will win, will have to run the government. Having
Speaker 1: said that, and I would say that the French people
Speaker 1: are expecting two things. Number one, to have the next
Speaker 1: prime minister to be someone with a solid experience, to
Speaker 1: bring a great expense on the table, next to a
Speaker 1: young leader who Emmanuel Marquin is not so experienced to
Speaker 1: be honest in politics because he started three years ago,
Speaker 1: which is yesterday. And too they need someone very solid
Speaker 1: who will be able to resist in these difficult times
Speaker 1: of terrorism, of really dealing with Isis. And this is
Speaker 1: what people are expecting, I know, as the ugly American Richard,
Speaker 1: which you've called me three times before. In Paris, the
Speaker 1: world ends at the Arc de tree Off, I believe,
Speaker 1: to the south, there's a whole another France. How is
Speaker 1: Mr McCray to be taken in the cities like Leon
Speaker 1: or Niece or too long? Tell me about Leon and
Speaker 1: what this election means for the second city of this nation,
Speaker 1: you know, I think when you look at different cities,
Speaker 1: Emmanuel mccron was elected with a very high ranking, except
Speaker 1: in the southeast of France, you know, and excepting Corsica,
Speaker 1: where even he was more less fifty two for for
Speaker 1: UM Marine Leepen. Why France is very divided, as you
Speaker 1: also saw during the first round, the north was really
Speaker 1: voting more for Marine Deepen, where the south and the
Speaker 1: west was more voting for UM Emmanuel mccron. Why that,
Speaker 1: because it's depends on the demography of of the of
Speaker 1: the country. In the north you have many people who
Speaker 1: are very low income, many job less. They lost jobs
Speaker 1: because they were working in mining industries, in all these
Speaker 1: industries which are disappearing, and because they are hopeless, they
Speaker 1: think that voting for Marine Deepen they have nothing to lose.
Speaker 1: On ab she will be the one who would bring
Speaker 1: a solution. So I have to say that in big
Speaker 1: cities like Lyon, like Bordeaux, like to lose, people will
Speaker 1: support Emanuel Macron. The problem is not about the big cities.
Speaker 1: The problem is about even some small cities where you
Speaker 1: have unemployment rate which is exceeding and this is where
Speaker 1: definitely you find a lot of silos of potential I
Speaker 1: would say populism and people ready to vote for extremism
Speaker 1: because they have nothing to do to do. And the
Speaker 1: second point is about immigration. In France, you have a
Speaker 1: lot of immigration so it depends on where you will
Speaker 1: find this immigration. In the south east of France you
Speaker 1: find a lot of immigration issues and this is why
Speaker 1: people are voting for Mari Independent. Richard Greater speak with you.
Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Especiality Chairman of Virginalities and Associates,
Speaker 1: Joining me here in New York. Brought you by Bank
Speaker 1: of America. Mary Lynch. Dedicated to bringing our clients insights
Speaker 1: and solutions to meet the challenges of a transforming world.
Speaker 1: That's the power of global connections. Mary Lynch, Pierce Feeder
Speaker 1: and Smith Incorporated Member s I p C. There's something
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Speaker 1: instantly see the news stories relevant market data from Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: In addition, see all the bios of the key people
Speaker 1: mentioned in the story. It's called Lens, and it is
Speaker 1: just that, a lens into the people and the data
Speaker 1: of any story you may be reading. Again, Lens brings
Speaker 1: you the power of Bloomberg's news and data download or
Speaker 1: Io s app or urch for the Bloomberg extension at
Speaker 1: the Chrome Store to try lens out. Learn more at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com slash lens. I am at Maison blanche,
Speaker 1: which is where executives come to die. And as they
Speaker 1: consider transactions and they consider the aesthetic of this nation.
Speaker 1: No one at all has any perspective on this in
Speaker 1: the linkolage to government like Renault du Trey, his chairman
Speaker 1: lvmh and so much to do with design the aesthetic
Speaker 1: of this nation of course with his public service as
Speaker 1: well a member of parliament for a long time. I
Speaker 1: want to talk about your politics, uh sir, first, which
Speaker 1: is what do you imagine the parliament elections will be
Speaker 1: June eleven and j How fractious will that process be?
Speaker 1: I think the French people are going to be a recoient.
Speaker 1: They're going to follow up, you know, yesterday's vote and
Speaker 1: gives a new president majority at you'll get a majority.
Speaker 1: That's what has been happening four years and years of
Speaker 1: the Fiefs Republic, and it totally makes sense. You don't
Speaker 1: want to have a new president if two weeks or
Speaker 1: three weeks later you deprive him have any power. And
Speaker 1: that's exactly what would happen if the president was not
Speaker 1: in the capacity of forming a new cabinet within the
Speaker 1: technology of this nation, and by that I mean a
Speaker 1: broad sense of technology, including the world class French design
Speaker 1: technology which you've helped to invent so many of that
Speaker 1: included ERICTIONE was with us that it's simply about the
Speaker 1: labor relationship and the productivity and a better economic growth
Speaker 1: will come from a better labor agreement. Are you optimistic
Speaker 1: that you can see a revolution and capitalism and labor
Speaker 1: relations in the nation. I think the next cabinet is
Speaker 1: going to be at war, war against terrorism, war against unemployment.
Speaker 1: Those are the two main issues. We have two copuies
Speaker 1: and of course if we want, you know, the companies
Speaker 1: to create more jobs, we have to add some flexibility
Speaker 1: in our labor organization. That's not easy because a lot
Speaker 1: of employees consider that if the bus, you know, has
Speaker 1: more ability to get free of employees, it's bringing less
Speaker 1: security to them. But that's the way it works. You know.
Speaker 1: We have to introduce more flexibility and that's something that
Speaker 1: a lot of people are understanding. So we have to
Speaker 1: go fast to what is going to be an efficient
Speaker 1: labor system. If you're just joining us works from No
Speaker 1: Detroit with us of LVMH David please jump in from
Speaker 1: New York City. Yeah, let me just get your perspective
Speaker 1: on why this candidate in particular was so attractive to
Speaker 1: people in the business community in France. He was young,
Speaker 1: he's untested. What what made him attractive to you and others? First,
Speaker 1: is a very pragmatic person. You know, it's not ideological,
Speaker 1: it's not sinking according to abstract patterns. He's just trying
Speaker 1: to make sure that what's going to be done is working.
Speaker 1: We need that. The two main parties of Socialist Party
Speaker 1: and the Republican parties are dead. You know, they have
Speaker 1: not been able to fix the issues. They have been
Speaker 1: governing for years and years and people are really upset
Speaker 1: with what they've been doing. So people want something new
Speaker 1: and mc coin is embodying a fresh and innovative approach
Speaker 1: of politics, much more pragmatic, being able, you know, to
Speaker 1: gather all the people who are in favor of progress
Speaker 1: of modernisation, and that's the hope is raising today And
Speaker 1: what what would you like him to do? There's the hope,
Speaker 1: there's the good will, there's the sense of change. But
Speaker 1: what concretely can he do for business in France. Um,
Speaker 1: First to love our taxes, you know, because we have
Speaker 1: a complex tax system. For instance, it's going to bring
Speaker 1: back the profit tax to which is much better than
Speaker 1: thirty three percent. He's going to suppress, um the main
Speaker 1: part of our I s F, which is the tax
Speaker 1: our wealth, so that's also highly expected. He's going to
Speaker 1: introduce a flat tax for all the income coming from capital.
Speaker 1: He's going to simplify and he's going to lower the
Speaker 1: tax burden, and that's of course is highly expected from
Speaker 1: the corporations. Second, is going to find the right balance
Speaker 1: between social fairness and economic efficiency. So he wants to
Speaker 1: invest in technologies, he wants to invest in research and development.
Speaker 1: He doesn't think that the free market is able to
Speaker 1: achieve everything. He believes in role for you know, the
Speaker 1: state and especially encouraging research. That's why he launched his
Speaker 1: call to American searcher you know, to come in France
Speaker 1: and and set it down here. So he's a very
Speaker 1: modern guy, upen to plobalization, but feeling that there are
Speaker 1: some losers in the glorization process and that something has
Speaker 1: to be done for them. No discussion. Mr Detroit could
Speaker 1: be possible without talking to you about the French ascetic
Speaker 1: where it's whether it's Air France commercials or what you've
Speaker 1: done at LVMH explained to our world audience what it
Speaker 1: means to have the American icon. Five guys, Hamburgers on
Speaker 1: the chances are you? Are you still threatening? That's not true.
Speaker 1: It's France, it is true. Five guys on chancey, Liz,
Speaker 1: You've got I mean the Disney stores. They're fine, They've
Speaker 1: got Disneyland here. Is there still a worry of American
Speaker 1: commerce and design invading your friends? We we I've been
Speaker 1: leaving a t in New York City and personal school,
Speaker 1: and you're just walking through Madison Avenue where you can
Speaker 1: see a lot of Italian and French brands, and all
Speaker 1: those shops are expressing our lifestyle and all the view.
Speaker 1: I'm not shocked by the fact that you can have
Speaker 1: an American brand in the chance it is. The question
Speaker 1: is is the food good? You know, that's a real question.
Speaker 1: If people like the Hamburgers, they will buy American Hamburgers.
Speaker 1: If it's bullshit, they will get to another brand. So
Speaker 1: the question is to bring some quality food. What people
Speaker 1: are very reluctant about is to have this kind of
Speaker 1: industrial food, and sometimes it's assimilated, you know, to global
Speaker 1: companies which are not so careful about the provenance, you know,
Speaker 1: the origin of the vegetables, of the meat, of everything
Speaker 1: which makes a good French meal. And so I'm we
Speaker 1: are in a global world. But in the same time,
Speaker 1: people in France they want to defend to protect they
Speaker 1: are the and they believe that this lifestyle and NDMH
Speaker 1: of course is a good example of that is able
Speaker 1: to be appealing to a large number of consumers all
Speaker 1: over the world. We see a transaction. I don't know
Speaker 1: if you're aware of this, but the transaction of Coach
Speaker 1: buying Kate Spain today within the United States give us
Speaker 1: a sense of the spirit of luxury right now. I
Speaker 1: was in the Gucci store next to Mr Trump's aboat
Speaker 1: the other day and it was knee deep in people.
Speaker 1: It was the buzz they're going with this brand or
Speaker 1: the other brand. I know Selin doing well and Louis
Speaker 1: Vuton the same way with your retail. But this, but
Speaker 1: this is important, David, and that is the aspiration of
Speaker 1: Mr McCraw and the new capitalism that is out there,
Speaker 1: you know, the essence of lifestyle products. It's a mixed
Speaker 1: between heritage and innovation, disception and heritage. When some companies
Speaker 1: are able to mix those two dimensions, which are appealing
Speaker 1: to two parts about our brain. We want to be
Speaker 1: comforted by what comes from the back us, but in
Speaker 1: the same time, we want to be excited by what
Speaker 1: is looking forward, which is presenting a new visage phase
Speaker 1: of the future. So that's exactly what those companies are
Speaker 1: able to do. Like you know, when Vito is asking
Speaker 1: to mark shack ups to come in and you know,
Speaker 1: get the dusts maybe out. Yeah, So it's it's always
Speaker 1: a question of high quality products first and then a
Speaker 1: cultural content. What consumers too, they are looking for is
Speaker 1: mainly culture. It's functionality, price and the celebrity matter like
Speaker 1: used to sometimes it can help, but it's not the
Speaker 1: sense of those brands. The sense of those brands is
Speaker 1: his artisanal craftsmanship, know how, coming from you know, the
Speaker 1: ages which has been protected. It's part of our common
Speaker 1: patrim one. You know, it's part of what mankind has
Speaker 1: been able to preserve over the last decades. And I
Speaker 1: think that a lot of consumers, whether it is in
Speaker 1: North American out in Asia are fond of this French
Speaker 1: and Italian lifestyle because it's it's meaning happiness, you know,
Speaker 1: a well balanced life, and I think that's the key
Speaker 1: of this success. Thank you so much. Tray with lvmh
Speaker 1: from Paris. This is Bloomberg. David Guray in New York.
Speaker 1: Tom Keene is in Paris. This is Bloomberg Surveillance on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio Pleasure. Now to be joined by Richier Sharma,
Speaker 1: author of the book The Rise and Fall of Nations,
Speaker 1: Forces of Change in a Post Crisis World, which will
Speaker 1: be available in paperback next month, I believe, contributor to
Speaker 1: the New York Times editorial page as well in chief
Speaker 1: Global strategist at Morgan Stanley. Great to have you with
Speaker 1: us in our Bloomberg eleven Trio studios. Let me start
Speaker 1: with a with a broad question here this was seen
Speaker 1: as a referendum on populism. Are our reports of its
Speaker 1: death prematurity? You think that this was the death knell?
Speaker 1: Or you're still concerned about the degree to which it
Speaker 1: is a current around the world. No, I think like
Speaker 1: I'm still concerned about that, but I feel that, you know,
Speaker 1: like it's very interesting, which is that of all places
Speaker 1: where populism seems to have sort of taken a break,
Speaker 1: it's in Europe, because there was so much pessimism about, um,
Speaker 1: what what happened in Europe regarding populism, and in fact,
Speaker 1: like I think it's quite remarkable that this sort of
Speaker 1: adds to the narrative that the European continent is not
Speaker 1: a continent which is permanently doomed for crisis, but as
Speaker 1: a continent where, in fact a recovery is underway, and
Speaker 1: this political narrative is likely to change for the better.
Speaker 1: And this is something which is likely to keeping improving
Speaker 1: sentiment in Europe. I mean, for the first time, the
Speaker 1: European economy now since the crisis, is growing at a
Speaker 1: pace which is even faster than the United States. And
Speaker 1: I think that, like for me, that's the big story.
Speaker 1: You have a person now who who has been imbuted
Speaker 1: with a lot of hope, a lot of people hope
Speaker 1: that he does change the way the economy works in France,
Speaker 1: changes the way that the tax system is structured, etcetera, etcetera.
Speaker 1: How much time do you think the people of France
Speaker 1: and investors are willing to give him to do that?
Speaker 1: If anything, these last few months have been a cautionary
Speaker 1: tale here in the US investor enthusiasm and optimism matched
Speaker 1: by the realities of governance, the realities of Washington, you know,
Speaker 1: Like I was slightly sort of different take here, which
Speaker 1: is the fact that I think that there that expectations
Speaker 1: out of him are rather low, even though he's one
Speaker 1: a very decisive victory in the second round. If you
Speaker 1: read much of the commentary, it is laid in with
Speaker 1: a lot of skepticism, a lot of people sort of
Speaker 1: saying that there's not much that he can do his uh,
Speaker 1: he has to now win the parliamentary elections, and so
Speaker 1: many sort of parallels being drawn with other leaders around
Speaker 1: the world, from Rerenzy in Italy to Sarkozy himself last decade,
Speaker 1: that so many leaders have come up, you know, with
Speaker 1: so much promise, and I've been able to deliver a little.
Speaker 1: So the good news is that there's a lot of
Speaker 1: pessimism about what he can do, so the bar is
Speaker 1: quite low. And yet the mood in France seems to
Speaker 1: be turning. As I've been saying that I think that
Speaker 1: the battle for Europe is over, but the battle for
Speaker 1: France has just begun, which is that in France there's
Speaker 1: a very strong constituency in support of a single currency
Speaker 1: of the Euro, and that's something which I think even
Speaker 1: Lepine realized and shifted her campaign in the last few
Speaker 1: weeks to being more sort of anti immigrant than anti
Speaker 1: Europe per se. But within France there's a deep divide
Speaker 1: about how much and what to do with the welfare state,
Speaker 1: but at least that debate has begun. France has the
Speaker 1: largest welfare state of any country in the world, with
Speaker 1: the possible exception of North Korea. Right so, in terms
Speaker 1: of its government spending at the trade of GDP is
Speaker 1: a staggeringly high fifty seven percent, and on every metric,
Speaker 1: France has been losing out to the other countries, even
Speaker 1: within Europe in per capita income terms. That has trailed
Speaker 1: the growth of other European countries. Its labor costs have
Speaker 1: gone up at a time in other countries from uh
Speaker 1: Spain to Portugal have been cutting back on their labor
Speaker 1: costs to get more competitiveness, and a lot of people
Speaker 1: are leaving France. I think that last year the largest
Speaker 1: number of millionaires that left any country in the world
Speaker 1: was France. UH some twelve th millionaires or something left France.
Speaker 1: So this is a country that is in deep need
Speaker 1: for change. And the fact that you had Philan who
Speaker 1: managed to pull nearly twenty in the first round, and
Speaker 1: he's really a very sort of classic right winger in
Speaker 1: terms of a Thatcherite kind of person, and he would
Speaker 1: have possibly won this election had it not been for
Speaker 1: the scandal which derailed him um in the last couple
Speaker 1: of months, the personal scandal regarding his finances. So I
Speaker 1: think that this is a country which is moving in
Speaker 1: the right direction. It remains divided, but the fact that
Speaker 1: so many French people are sort of now voting for
Speaker 1: agendas that are quite reformist is I think a major
Speaker 1: step forward for a deeply socialistic country. Tom, I want
Speaker 1: to bring you in in Paris. Yeah, we're in Paris.
Speaker 1: We think many of the uber drivers of Paris who
Speaker 1: have been shocked David Gura find us on the radio
Speaker 1: dial here in Paris. Jonas I know is listening from
Speaker 1: had he just sent me in a note as well?
Speaker 1: For sure? Is France an emerging market? Is there just
Speaker 1: so much untapped technology and will that if they excuse me,
Speaker 1: if they do find the will are they the ultimate
Speaker 1: emerging market, But it depends how you define and like
Speaker 1: emerging market. I guess what you're trying to say is
Speaker 1: that there's a lot of growth potential for this country
Speaker 1: if they managed to get things right. Yeah. Sure, I
Speaker 1: think that a couple of things which France has in
Speaker 1: its favor where it shares some characteristics you can argue
Speaker 1: with other emerging market says the fact that it's demographics
Speaker 1: some better than the rest of the continent. That at
Speaker 1: least that you see, it's demographics are far superior compared
Speaker 1: to Germany as far as uh birth rates are concerned.
Speaker 1: Immigration is a is a much bigger issue because France
Speaker 1: has a pretty poor track record in terms of assimilating immigrants,
Speaker 1: let's say, compared to Anglo Saxon nations such as the
Speaker 1: United States or uh u K. But the other place
Speaker 1: I guess where you can say that France is a
Speaker 1: bit like emerging market is the fact that it's products
Speaker 1: of it is also quite high. Just the fact that
Speaker 1: people aren't allowed to work that much when you have
Speaker 1: sort of you know, like a work week which curbs
Speaker 1: working as at thirty five hours a week. So I
Speaker 1: think that yeah, in terms of the potential for France
Speaker 1: to do better from here with superior demographics and the
Speaker 1: fact that productivity can is relatively high. Just that people
Speaker 1: don't work as much, I think, yeah, in the Africa,
Speaker 1: you can call it that. And Maurice Leevey of System
Speaker 1: was adamant about the thirty five hour work week in
Speaker 1: the need to make that a piece of history for sure.
Speaker 1: Just because of the urgency of last week, I think
Speaker 1: we need to turn to your claim call on the
Speaker 1: commodity cycle. What did you make of the plummet in
Speaker 1: commodities iron ore and such, but particularly in hydrocarbons last week?
Speaker 1: What did it signal? Well? I think that you know,
Speaker 1: as far as oil is concerned, I've been saying that
Speaker 1: a lot of people suffer from what we call the
Speaker 1: anchoring bias, which that all because the price of oil
Speaker 1: went up two hundred and uh forty dollars a battle
Speaker 1: last decade. We tend to often think of the fact
Speaker 1: that the price of oil today is very low compared
Speaker 1: to those highs. But as I've been pointing out that
Speaker 1: if you look at the long term price of oil
Speaker 1: in inflation adjusted terms, the price you get is around
Speaker 1: where you are today, around a battle. So from a
Speaker 1: long term historical perspective, the price of oil today is
Speaker 1: not low. It is in line with its long term history,
Speaker 1: just that it's low compared to where we got to
Speaker 1: last decade at the fag end of a massive commodity supercycle.
Speaker 1: So in that regard, I think that oil is following
Speaker 1: the classic historical pattern, which that it had a massive
Speaker 1: boom and then a bust, and then if history is
Speaker 1: any guide, it will basically trade in a broad range
Speaker 1: for a long time to come around its historical means.
Speaker 1: So I think the price of oil is set to
Speaker 1: trade within a thirty to sixty battle for a long
Speaker 1: time to come. And after having sort of gravitated towards
Speaker 1: the high end of the range, we are possibly now
Speaker 1: headed towards the lower end of the range. And the
Speaker 1: big surprise has been just how productive US shale is
Speaker 1: and the US oil industry is. So I think that's
Speaker 1: the one big sort of driver as far as oil
Speaker 1: is concerned, the larger commodity complex. On that, my concerns
Speaker 1: still revolve around China. As I've said, is that China's
Speaker 1: grow trajectory has been on a downtrend since the start
Speaker 1: of a decade. The way I describe it it is
Speaker 1: that China's grow trajectory resembles a ping pong ball bouncing
Speaker 1: down the stairs, which is that the trend is down.
Speaker 1: But every time the trend tends to accelerate a bit,
Speaker 1: they inject more credit, more stimulus into the economy, so
Speaker 1: you get a bounce up and then the decline begins.
Speaker 1: I think that's exactly what's happened over the last year.
Speaker 1: That in jan Fab of last year, UH fears that
Speaker 1: the China would have a massive hard landing were sort
Speaker 1: of uh really growing, so they injected massive amounts of
Speaker 1: credit and stimulus into the economy to rescue the economy.
Speaker 1: That led to UH some rebounded in industrial activity, and
Speaker 1: we've seen a bounce up in commodity prices on the
Speaker 1: back of that. But now as growth seems to have
Speaker 1: peaked in China, that downtrend in growth has resumed. So
Speaker 1: I think that that's really the path that commodities are
Speaker 1: likely to follow. The broad UH point here being that
Speaker 1: after they have a big boom bus cycle, commodities tend
Speaker 1: to trade in a wide range for a long period
Speaker 1: of time and sort of don't go back to the
Speaker 1: old highs for a generation for sure. Sure. Sitting with
Speaker 1: David in New York and and share, I guess I
Speaker 1: want to talk about the correlations within the market, and
Speaker 1: not so much equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, but the correlations
Speaker 1: of the actions of chair yelling with the market. Are
Speaker 1: we tantrum like or setting us are setting ourselves up
Speaker 1: for further tantrums? Well, it could be because I think that,
Speaker 1: you know, like the I think there are two sort
Speaker 1: of conflicting forces in the marketplace. One is the fact
Speaker 1: that now finally it seems that the US is at
Speaker 1: full employment, and I find that fascinating. There's so much
Speaker 1: talk about robots displacing jobs and other things going on,
Speaker 1: but the fact of the matter is that the US
Speaker 1: today is uh at about full employment and that should
Speaker 1: finally lead to wages going higher. We've seen an uptick
Speaker 1: in wages, but so far wage growth has been quite
Speaker 1: disappointing compared to where it should have been at this
Speaker 1: stage of the economic cycle. On the other hand, I
Speaker 1: think that the deflationy forces from China continue to blow,
Speaker 1: and I think that even though we have seen a
Speaker 1: secession in that in the last year, as we just
Speaker 1: discussed with commodity prices going up and Chinese sort of
Speaker 1: producer prices skyrocketing. But I think that we are seeing
Speaker 1: a reversal of that. So I think that that play
Speaker 1: is going to continue that sort of uh conflict which
Speaker 1: on one and I see US wages going up on
Speaker 1: the other hand, because commodity prices are unlikely to do
Speaker 1: much in the foreseable future and if anything, they go
Speaker 1: to the bottom of the trading range. I think that
Speaker 1: that's what is what keeps sort of things interesting here where,
Speaker 1: you know, and that's why the tenure is barely moving
Speaker 1: in the last few weeks. But the partition here, as
Speaker 1: you know from our reading Hans Rhetoric or your colleague
Speaker 1: at Morgan Stanley, is the dollar dynamics, which to be
Speaker 1: different between Europe and the dollar dynamics with Asia ex Japan.
Speaker 1: Is Asia ex Japan the ultimate alpha opportunity of the
Speaker 1: rest of this year. Yeah, I mean in terms of
Speaker 1: the fact that you know, like we don't like talking
Speaker 1: about regions and that way, because I think that you know,
Speaker 1: there's we're among friends, we're among friends. But I think
Speaker 1: that But my concern is that I think emerging markets,
Speaker 1: including Asia X Japan have natural momentum going up because
Speaker 1: they're all reviving after you know, like a long sort
Speaker 1: of drought and time out in the wilderness. But the
Speaker 1: problem there, like I keep my one eye out on,
Speaker 1: is China. That's the one thing which could still derail
Speaker 1: the Asia x Japan story because China is still very
Speaker 1: dominant in that region. And if Chinese growth so far
Speaker 1: as slowing down after sort of having peaked in the
Speaker 1: first quarter, but if that were to really slow down
Speaker 1: any further, that's the one thing which could sort of
Speaker 1: throw a monkey range into that trade. Let me bring
Speaker 1: in surveillance x Keen in New York. David, thank you.
Speaker 1: Let me ask you about the the U S relationship
Speaker 1: with China at this point. We watched the summit unfolded
Speaker 1: marl Laga more more than a month ago. Now, I
Speaker 1: spoke with the Secretary of Commerce last week. Part David,
Speaker 1: Marlago is so April. It's so April now, I know
Speaker 1: as we push on, push on Bedminster, the new the
Speaker 1: new White House North Secretary Ross telling me last week
Speaker 1: that the strategic and economic dialogue is going to continue.
Speaker 1: What's your sense of the relationship here and as you
Speaker 1: look at the prospects for Chinese growth. How dependent are
Speaker 1: they upon that relationship with the US. Well, I think
Speaker 1: that they are very dependent because you know, there's still
Speaker 1: very much in you know, like an export par house.
Speaker 1: They're the largest exporters in the world, and if they
Speaker 1: were ever to be any sort of trade skirmishes with
Speaker 1: the US or any sort of uh god forbid, trade war,
Speaker 1: that would have a major destabilizing effect on the global
Speaker 1: economy and particularly on China. So I think that everyone
Speaker 1: here needs to trade with care. I think that's what's
Speaker 1: going on. I know this is like, this is the
Speaker 1: broader question, which is that in November, uh, the entire
Speaker 1: discussion was about what effect would Trump have on markets?
Speaker 1: And we think in the markets was all about the
Speaker 1: Trump administration. Here we are in me and it's amazing,
Speaker 1: you know, like how investors have moved on, which is
Speaker 1: that in the in the in the marketplace now there
Speaker 1: is very little discussion about the Trump effect. It was
Speaker 1: all gone back to sort of assessing each asset class
Speaker 1: or each trend on its own, and very little discussion
Speaker 1: about Trump. So I find this amazing disconnect that that
Speaker 1: in the in the general political discourse, no conversation can
Speaker 1: begin or end without a discussion about what Trump is
Speaker 1: doing or what the Trump administration is doing in the marketplace.
Speaker 1: You know, like we UH, we had a whole bunch
Speaker 1: of our team which attended the I m F World
Speaker 1: Bank Conferences in d C last months, and they came
Speaker 1: back with the impression that very few people there are
Speaker 1: now talking about Trump anymore or the effect that Trump
Speaker 1: is having. So we've gone from this amazing sort of
Speaker 1: discussion in UH November where everything was about you know,
Speaker 1: what will happen, you know what effect will Trump have
Speaker 1: on every single relationship in the world, And now we
Speaker 1: have gone to that place where people are like, you
Speaker 1: know what, there's not that much he can make a
Speaker 1: difference to. So people have gone back to sort of
Speaker 1: looking at each trend UH individually and from a very
Speaker 1: economic standpoint. Now you're gonna watch that that menuet unfold
Speaker 1: later this month at the G seven in Italy. You
Speaker 1: have President Trump traveling there to meet with his counterparts,
Speaker 1: his first trip trip overseas. I imagine we're going to
Speaker 1: see play out there. We've seen that play out before
Speaker 1: with his trips. The Treasury Secretary has taken trips the
Speaker 1: Secretary of State has taken there will be a lot
Speaker 1: of counterparts curious as to what this president thinks about
Speaker 1: the world order, what he's going to do, What are
Speaker 1: you going to be watching for? Well, I think that
Speaker 1: in terms of you know, like, you know what the
Speaker 1: dynamics are, you know, how exactly like it plays itself out.
Speaker 1: But my feeling is that from a financial market standpoint,
Speaker 1: this is going to be a basic non event, which
Speaker 1: is the fact that you know, G seven meetings have
Speaker 1: long ceased to have any effect as far as investors
Speaker 1: are concerned. And I think that I know that you
Speaker 1: will be intense focus in the in the political space
Speaker 1: and in the media about Trump and how he's interacting
Speaker 1: with other leaders and stuff at that. But from a
Speaker 1: financial market standpoint, I think that people are you know, like, uh,
Speaker 1: we've got to separate that discussion completely from the political theater.
Speaker 1: For sure. I gotta make money to get home, right now?
Speaker 1: Do I need to go short oil? Nobody seems to
Speaker 1: be predicting forty two or even to preach forty thirty
Speaker 1: nine oil. What is that likelihood the probability of breaking
Speaker 1: out of the Mother of All ranges? Well, I think
Speaker 1: that the probability is high, which is the fact that
Speaker 1: the that the dynamic on the oil market still seems
Speaker 1: as if you know, prices want to get lower. And
Speaker 1: I think you rightly point out very few people are
Speaker 1: prepared for lower prices because everyone's been thinking that the
Speaker 1: risk is to the upside. So yeah, I mean, if
Speaker 1: you want to buy downside sort of a breakout stuff,
Speaker 1: it's possibly better than buying an upside option. Here are
Speaker 1: you watching OPEC, what's the likelihood that production freezes continued? Well,
Speaker 1: I think that you know, I mean like they will
Speaker 1: likely continue, But I think the part of OPEC is
Speaker 1: greatly overstated. I think that you know, well that pick
Speaker 1: makes for great headlines and what happens there, but I
Speaker 1: really feel the power is overstated. And in the end,
Speaker 1: it's back to the same discussion that uh, you know
Speaker 1: that do they want to lose more market share to
Speaker 1: US shale because it's come back in such a big
Speaker 1: way and seemed to be much more productive than people
Speaker 1: that expected. I'm not quite sure they want to do that.
Speaker 1: Your your classic reshers breakout nations in pursuit of the
Speaker 1: next economic miracle? Where is the next economic miracle? Could
Speaker 1: it be the recovery of Venezuela, of the absolute heartbreaking
Speaker 1: bottom or is it some other story Now, I think
Speaker 1: that Latin America in general is doing much better. I
Speaker 1: think it's a continent which you know, we don't talk
Speaker 1: about that much, but it's the one continent still following
Speaker 1: the economic orthodox model. I was in Brazil last month.
Speaker 1: I was really impressed by the kind of reforms that
Speaker 1: Brazil is carrying out with it's back to the wall.
Speaker 1: But that's the story that all countries which have their
Speaker 1: back to the wall are the countries which carry out
Speaker 1: economic reforms, because that's the only time that they seem
Speaker 1: to do, and that's what's going on. But I think
Speaker 1: the big trend in the world it is that the
Speaker 1: US market seems to be hitting a relative peak compared
Speaker 1: to the rest of the world, with the dollar also
Speaker 1: showing signs of exhaustion. So I think the opportunities are international,
Speaker 1: whether it's Europe, it's Japan, it's parts of emerging markets.
Speaker 1: I'm finding much more opportunity international now than here in
Speaker 1: the United States. For sure. Thank you so much, as
Speaker 1: always for thank you from Paris. I'm sure David will
Speaker 1: greet us out here, but It's just wonderful, folks, to
Speaker 1: have Mr Sherma with us of Morgan's Daddy. Global coverage
Speaker 1: continuing here on Bloomberg Surveilance for Shere Scharman, the Global
Speaker 1: head of Strategy at Morgan Stanley, the author of The
Speaker 1: Rise and Fall of Nations and Incredible Forces of Change
Speaker 1: in a post crisis world. As I said out in Hardback,
Speaker 1: now available in paperback next month. Look for his columns
Speaker 1: in The New York Times monthly as well. Thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to
Speaker 1: interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer.
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene. David Gura is at
Speaker 1: David Gura. Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide.
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