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Speaker 1: it's been a festive holiday week. I've been with my
Speaker 1: kids for most of it. So we are dropping our
Speaker 1: sharp or Square segment with Chad Milman a day later.
Speaker 1: Let me give you about fifteen minutes of rants before
Speaker 1: I get to Milman Sharper Square for our bets of
Speaker 1: the week. I am, of course, always the square, so
Speaker 1: I saw as I was off a couple of days
Speaker 1: this week, Lebron James saying, and this is Lebron, always
Speaker 1: the manipulator. I don't think he wants to leave Los Angeles.
Speaker 1: His family loves it here, he loves it here. Business
Speaker 1: is great here. But he said publicly, Hey, I'm a winner.
Speaker 1: I don't want to spend the last couple years of
Speaker 1: my career not being on a winning franchise timeout the
Speaker 1: previous five years before Lebron James came to the Los
Speaker 1: Angeles Lakers, they were tied with the Knicks for the
Speaker 1: worst winning percentage in the league. In twenty fifteen. Twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: they had seventeen wins. He chose Los Angeles to get rich,
Speaker 1: and I defend him on that, and there are places
Speaker 1: I would love to see the Lakers move him at
Speaker 1: the end of the year. Now Lebron's contract, he's not
Speaker 1: tradeable this year. I know. Strange as it is, he's not.
Speaker 1: I think he's a perfect fit with Luka Doncic, who
Speaker 1: has an unbelievably high usage rate that, like James Harden,
Speaker 1: will wear him down in the postseason. He's a one
Speaker 1: man offense. Those kind of offenses do not succeed in
Speaker 1: the playoffs, and Luca is two ball dominant, two usage dominant.
Speaker 1: He needs somebody to create open, easier shots. Lebron is perfect.
Speaker 1: But next year, Lebron's a year older. I doubt Dallas
Speaker 1: is giving the Lakers a lot in return, although I
Speaker 1: still contend Lebron on his healthy, good nights with energy,
Speaker 1: is a top four or five player in the NBA.
Speaker 1: But Lebron made all these choices. He chose a d
Speaker 1: he chose Westbrook, He signed an extension Patrick Beverley that
Speaker 1: feels very much like a Lebron asking the Lakers to
Speaker 1: get Patrick Beverly move an NBA vet who's feisty. So
Speaker 1: Lebron will say things. What he's trying to probably do
Speaker 1: is force the Laker's hand into giving up those draft
Speaker 1: picks and getting more help. But remember this is what
Speaker 1: Lebron does. He comes to a franchise, won't play with
Speaker 1: young guys. You have to go give it your draft
Speaker 1: capital to get veteran players. Get up against the kaper
Speaker 1: over it. Then when Lebron leaves, you're ft, You're screwed,
Speaker 1: You're trapped. So the Lakers have seen that had happened
Speaker 1: in Miami, had happened in Cleveland. They don't want to
Speaker 1: become the Heat or the Calves, although both are in
Speaker 1: much better situations than the Lakers today. Derek Carr, so
Speaker 1: the Raiders decide to sit him to keep him healthy
Speaker 1: before they trade him a little bit of outraged by
Speaker 1: many people, but Car's contract allows him forty million dollars
Speaker 1: in guaranteed injury money if he got dinged up. So
Speaker 1: the Raiders don't want to write that check. They want
Speaker 1: to keep him healthy, they'll put him on the market.
Speaker 1: We can go back and argue about how valuable or
Speaker 1: how talented Derek Carr is. I think he's a top
Speaker 1: twelve quarterback, probably eleven or twelve in that Kirk Cousins,
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott area. But here's the real deciding factor. It
Speaker 1: doesn't matter what you do for a living. You could
Speaker 1: be a lawyer, you could be a teacher, you could
Speaker 1: be a quarterback, you could be a talk show host.
Speaker 1: How many people bid on you make an offer to
Speaker 1: you when you're on the market. You know, for years
Speaker 1: and years I watched a lot of people go online
Speaker 1: and this is this is what the Internet sadly has
Speaker 1: become and criticized. Joe Buck. Joe Bucks, this Joe Bucks
Speaker 1: that I work with, Joe Buck, most talented former teammate
Speaker 1: I've ever had, most talented teammate I ever had. The
Speaker 1: minute he was available to the market, ESPN spent a
Speaker 1: fortune to bring him and Troy Aikman over. Doesn't matter
Speaker 1: what the critics think. It doesn't matter what bots think
Speaker 1: or anonymous trolls. The minute Joe Buck was on the
Speaker 1: open market, he fetched over fifteen million dollars a year,
Speaker 1: and ESPN rebuilt their entire Monday Night football production around him.
Speaker 1: When Derek Carr goes to the market, Washington, the Jets,
Speaker 1: maybe the Texans, there's several Tampa Bay if Tom Brady bolts,
Speaker 1: which I think he will, Miami if they decide they
Speaker 1: want a healthier version of Tua. Derek Carr is almost
Speaker 1: always available, increasingly ta is not. They'll be at least
Speaker 1: a half a dozen teams, including the Colts, the Seahawks,
Speaker 1: that will absolutely make a or an offer to get
Speaker 1: Derek Carr, regardless of what you and I think of
Speaker 1: his talent. Judge somebody by the offers they fetch when
Speaker 1: they are available to everybody. So I was watching the Huskies,
Speaker 1: the well coached Washington Huskies beat Texas in the Alamo Bowl.
Speaker 1: And I grew up in the Pacific Northwest, and I
Speaker 1: am a Pac twelve fans, so I like watching some
Speaker 1: of these random bowl games with Pac twelve teams in them.
Speaker 1: So b Jean Robinson, the star running back, best college
Speaker 1: running back, decided not to play, and nobody really had
Speaker 1: a problem with it, and I went back and I
Speaker 1: remember Christian mccaffrean Leonard Fournett six years ago, neither playing
Speaker 1: in the national title game, opted out of their final
Speaker 1: college game. Mark Ricked, Miami coach quote, it's sad even
Speaker 1: Kirk Herbstreet disturbing trend. These are reasonable, smart people. There's
Speaker 1: many more I could read. Those are two of the
Speaker 1: bigger names. People didn't like it at all. It became
Speaker 1: a topic, a narrative, a tipping point. And yet Bijean Robinson,
Speaker 1: as good as either to me and potentially a better
Speaker 1: pro than both, decides to sit out as mostly crickets. Why.
Speaker 1: I've come to realize that there are certain people, and
Speaker 1: maybe it's a majority of the people, that are really
Speaker 1: reluctant to change their creatures of a habit, and change
Speaker 1: is inevitable. Not to sound like a therapist, but that's
Speaker 1: where all the growth comes from when we're uncomfortable. This
Speaker 1: is why when people react to nil or the transfer portal,
Speaker 1: I keep saying, chill out, It's all gonna be okay.
Speaker 1: Bijean Robinson and star running back should not play in
Speaker 1: the Alamo Bowl. Twenty carries twenty hits. Why would you
Speaker 1: risk possibly fifty to seventy five million dollars one hundred
Speaker 1: million dollars of career earnings for the Alamo Bowl Transfer portal.
Speaker 1: Nil sitting out Bowl games. It's okay. These are young
Speaker 1: business people, they're leaving college. It's their first job. As
Speaker 1: long as they're not playing for the national championship, I
Speaker 1: don't have any problem with it. That would feel a
Speaker 1: little selfish, a little, but in this case, in most cases,
Speaker 1: I get it all right. It's time for Sharper Square,
Speaker 1: where I lean on Chad Millman CCO Action Network to
Speaker 1: help me figure out and decipher good bets from bad bets.
Speaker 1: I mean, all bets are good bets. They're on and
Speaker 1: all my fandel. I mean they make games fun. I'm
Speaker 1: betting on stupid Bowl games. Of course they're fun. I
Speaker 1: always give you three or four I really like, and
Speaker 1: then you guide me through it. Then I ask you
Speaker 1: for advice in a game I want to bet. You
Speaker 1: often talk me into it, and then I ask you
Speaker 1: what did I miss? So let's start with a couple
Speaker 1: I like. I like the Jets as a slight favorite
Speaker 1: against Seattle. Seattle is reeling. They're not running the football
Speaker 1: when any quarterback the last two years, not name Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson takes the helm for the Jets. They pass for
Speaker 1: over three hundred and ten yards a game. I think
Speaker 1: this is a really really interesting roster. I think Mike
Speaker 1: White is capable. I'm going to take the Jets minus
Speaker 1: one and a half sharper square. Well, it's sharp. It's
Speaker 1: so sharp that the line has moved from one and
Speaker 1: a half to two and a half because the wise
Speaker 1: guy money has been coming in. At this point in
Speaker 1: a year, when you're handicapping games and trying to think
Speaker 1: about individual teams, you're trying to figure out is the
Speaker 1: team that we've been watching for the past six seven
Speaker 1: weeks good if they're playing well, terrible if they're playing badly,
Speaker 1: or is there going to be some kind of regression rights.
Speaker 1: As betters, we're always trying to ride the wave and
Speaker 1: predict regression. A team going to be, you know, better
Speaker 1: than it's been playing or worse than it's been playing.
Speaker 1: I think wise guys right now feel like what you're
Speaker 1: seeing with the Seahawks the past four or five weeks.
Speaker 1: Inability to run the ball. Defense can't stop anybody. Geno
Speaker 1: Smith being exposed for being for the reasons why he's
Speaker 1: been a backup for seven years. And the Jets, meanwhile,
Speaker 1: are a team that continues to play well because they've
Speaker 1: got a top five defense and their top five like
Speaker 1: front line, linebacker, secondary, and the only reason why they
Speaker 1: can't compete in some games is because of Zack Wilson.
Speaker 1: And it's a testament. It's really about how bad Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson is. That you get Mike White in there and
Speaker 1: people are like, this is a Super Bowl contending team,
Speaker 1: and in reality, it's Mike White Who's still Mike White.
Speaker 1: He's just so much better because he can actually complete
Speaker 1: a pass, so you're on the right side. It's an
Speaker 1: interesting game to handicap just because of the Seahawks troubles,
Speaker 1: but the wise guys like the Jets. So speaking of
Speaker 1: growth and throughout the season, I never thought Christian Watson
Speaker 1: would matter in a pick. But if he does not play,
Speaker 1: Green Bay is a completely bbgun offense and I like
Speaker 1: Minnesota plus three. If he does play, it's probably a push.
Speaker 1: But he's become a wildly important part, really the only
Speaker 1: part to their vertical passing game. He's a fifty fifty
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Minnesota plus three here Sharper Square totally.
Speaker 1: It's interesting. You know, we do that sharp Call segment
Speaker 1: on the favorites me and Simon Hunter professional Better, So
Speaker 1: I'll explain it for people who don't who don't listen
Speaker 1: to this segment. Every week, we'll do two podcasts a week.
Speaker 1: On Tuesday, we talk about the games we like on Thursday.
Speaker 1: By Thursday, we have gotten calls from other professional betters
Speaker 1: in the community telling us what they think of the
Speaker 1: games we're talking about, and sometimes they're affirming our decisions.
Speaker 1: Sometimes they were against our decisions. There were two games
Speaker 1: that popped this week. I think we're going to talk
Speaker 1: about both of them. This is one of them. Completely
Speaker 1: split some wise. Guys love the Packers. Some guys like
Speaker 1: the Vikings at three and a half because they were
Speaker 1: getting the hook and we saw that line move. It
Speaker 1: was at three and a half it went down to three.
Speaker 1: So I feel there's not a consensus here. If you
Speaker 1: like the Packers, you're probably on the right side with
Speaker 1: some professional betters. I think what people are thinking is
Speaker 1: it's a little bit about that wave. The Packers have
Speaker 1: been ascending and because of Christian Watson, because their offense
Speaker 1: has been playing much better with Aaron Rodgers and sort
Speaker 1: of understanding what those receivers can do. They've been getting
Speaker 1: a little bit healthier on offense. They've got a very
Speaker 1: good defensive secondary. And I think like the biggest difference
Speaker 1: here with the Vikings is their luckiness has been factored
Speaker 1: into the line and that's why if it's at three,
Speaker 1: the wise guys don't like it. At three and a half,
Speaker 1: they do. I will tell you we've talked about this
Speaker 1: in the past. We've got this metric called the luck
Speaker 1: rankings at Action Network that basically is able to quantify
Speaker 1: regression and the differentials and luck rankings between the two teams.
Speaker 1: When it's sixteen or more, the team that is less
Speaker 1: lucky covers sixty two percent of the time. This is
Speaker 1: the biggest luck differential of the week, so and it's
Speaker 1: in favor of the Packers. So I think that's giving
Speaker 1: some of us a little bit of pause for going
Speaker 1: all in and the Vikings. By the way, you mentioned
Speaker 1: betting is fun. This is when Bud betting his heart.
Speaker 1: When you have Christian Watson over fifty and a half
Speaker 1: receiving yards and he gets forty nine in the first half,
Speaker 1: and I'm the last catch of the first half that
Speaker 1: he makes, he's knocked out of the game. That's when
Speaker 1: you're standing in front of the TV and you're like,
Speaker 1: I don't see him on the field when the Packers
Speaker 1: have the ball to start the series in the second half.
Speaker 1: This is terrible. Yeah, happens all the time. So since
Speaker 1: week seven, if you've watched Patriot games, they have no offense,
Speaker 1: the play calling, no vertical element. They now turn it
Speaker 1: over more protections, hit and miss. I still like Miami's
Speaker 1: personnel and Tua won't play, but Bridgewaters are reasonable facsimile.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take two and a half points. It just
Speaker 1: feels like the right side they match up very well.
Speaker 1: They've got more juice. I saw him play at ball
Speaker 1: flow and outplay the Bills. I take Miami plus the
Speaker 1: point Sharper square. Yeah, that's totally sharp. And what's really
Speaker 1: interesting here, and I imagine we'll talk about this with
Speaker 1: another game. Qbs are obviously the most important factor against
Speaker 1: the spread, and if you're one of the top tier qbs,
Speaker 1: you're anywhere worth seven points to ten points against the spread.
Speaker 1: Tom Brady at his peak, Aaron Rodgers at his peak,
Speaker 1: was considered to be seven to ten points against the spread,
Speaker 1: and it quantifies two things. It quantifies how good you
Speaker 1: are as a quarterback, but also the delta between you
Speaker 1: and your backup. And I think what you're seeing here
Speaker 1: is the market responding to Teddy Bridgewater playing Teddy Bridgewater.
Speaker 1: And I'm not exaggerating here. Greatest against the spread record
Speaker 1: of any quarterback the past twenty years, So there's going
Speaker 1: to be a sentiment that the Dolphins are still going
Speaker 1: to be the side you want to take. It's why
Speaker 1: this line has been sitting at two and a half
Speaker 1: and it hasn't moved to three. Part of it is
Speaker 1: because nobody's got any faith in the Patriots offense. And
Speaker 1: part of it is because they know that Teddy Bridgewater
Speaker 1: can come in and do a lot of the things
Speaker 1: that they need him to do to keep the game close.
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Speaker 1: So um. Josh McDaniels is a very good play caller
Speaker 1: and I think play designer, but his opinion on quarterbacks
Speaker 1: is interesting. At one point, Belichick was ready to move
Speaker 1: off Brady for Garmpolo. Obviously, Bill went to McDaniel for
Speaker 1: his opinion, probably emboldened empower because Bill was over Tommy
Speaker 1: and McDaniel like Garoppolo. We know he's now limited. Josh
Speaker 1: McDaniel also loved Tim Tebow, nobody else in the world
Speaker 1: did as a first round pick. Josh McDaniel likes Jared Stidham,
Speaker 1: who has a fifty two percent completion percentage in his career.
Speaker 1: In the preseason was at sixty two. But it's deceiving
Speaker 1: because we live in an era now. Last two years,
Speaker 1: no starters play in the preseason. It is mostly second
Speaker 1: third teamers and scout teamers. That's a bad percentage. I'm
Speaker 1: going to take San Francisco minus nine and a half.
Speaker 1: It makes me sick. I don't know how the Raiders
Speaker 1: move the ball. I don't understand it. Battle line Stidham's
Speaker 1: not mobile, I don't get it. I'm taking the Niners.
Speaker 1: Sharper square. You hit him something really interesting. It's a
Speaker 1: square play, but you hit on something really interesting, which
Speaker 1: is people who have had success in whatever capacity in
Speaker 1: which they need to coach somebody up. Could be a
Speaker 1: media executive, which you are now, which I have been
Speaker 1: for a while, could be an NFL coach, could be
Speaker 1: an NBA coach. You see something in someone once you
Speaker 1: see it in practice, so you see them execute well,
Speaker 1: you see them write a line that you love. You
Speaker 1: hear a segment of theirs on a podcast or on
Speaker 1: a radio show, and you're like, that person's got it,
Speaker 1: and you will believe in that long past the time
Speaker 1: when they've proven they don't have it. And it's very
Speaker 1: possible that in these instances Josh McDaniels just believes I'm
Speaker 1: so good at what I do, I into it. I
Speaker 1: can impart all of that information into the person who
Speaker 1: can be robotic if they just do what I tell
Speaker 1: them to do, it's going to be perfect. So I
Speaker 1: was talking about the delta in against the spread value
Speaker 1: for quarterbacks before the season began. We ranked all this
Speaker 1: at Action Network. The delta between Derek Carr and Jared's
Speaker 1: did him was about six points. So let's say you
Speaker 1: downgrade car because he's underperformed a little bit this year.
Speaker 1: So let's say it's four points, right, So then that's
Speaker 1: how you get from five and a half, which is
Speaker 1: what this line was in favor of the Niners before
Speaker 1: the news about Derek Carr, to nine and a half.
Speaker 1: So I will tell you right now, when it got
Speaker 1: to nine and a half, professional betters started bet on
Speaker 1: the Raiders, and you can see in some places, not everywhere,
Speaker 1: but in some places this line has moved to nine.
Speaker 1: But you always say you don't want to bet games
Speaker 1: like this. I'd probably have to take the Raiders here,
Speaker 1: but I'd hold my nose and then I think there's
Speaker 1: better options on the board. Finally, Bengals at home, probably
Speaker 1: one of the three biggest football games in Cincinnati in
Speaker 1: a decade. They're the more efficient team, they have, the
Speaker 1: better protection for their quarterback, the more consistent run game.
Speaker 1: What concerns me about Buffalo. They bail on the run,
Speaker 1: their protection spotty. As Greg Kosell told me this week,
Speaker 1: Josh Allen's taking off now sooner than he has to,
Speaker 1: and they're very prone to mistakes in key red zone situations.
Speaker 1: I think Cincinnati is the best team in the league,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to take him at home plus one
Speaker 1: and a half. Not that I'm a seller on Buffalo.
Speaker 1: This is a playoff level intensity that this crowd this moment,
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Monday night football. Nobody puts Cincinnati on Monday Night football.
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be an overwhelming presence, and
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the team I think will make
Speaker 1: fewer mistakes and potentially a shootout. I said at the
Speaker 1: beginning of this segment we were going to refer back
Speaker 1: to a couple of different ideas right one was against
Speaker 1: the spread value from quarterbacks. The other was sharp calls.
Speaker 1: This was the second most called about game, and it
Speaker 1: was pretty unanimous. The wise guys were on Buffalo, and
Speaker 1: it's pretty interesting. I think there's a couple of different
Speaker 1: things in play here. One, the Bengals are without their
Speaker 1: best offensive lineman, which is a really big deal. As
Speaker 1: good as Joe Burrow is against the Blitz, against pass
Speaker 1: rush pressure. They're still downe their best offensive lineman. We
Speaker 1: saw last week, and you and I talked about this.
Speaker 1: The defensive line has been the key to the resurgence
Speaker 1: for the Bengals the past say, six, seven, eight weeks.
Speaker 1: They're a little bit banged up, in fact, significantly banged
Speaker 1: up on the defensive line. That plays to the strength
Speaker 1: the strength of the Bills. It might allow Josh Allen
Speaker 1: to have a little bit more time, but also is
Speaker 1: going to leave gaping holes for him to do what
Speaker 1: he really does best, which is finding open lanes in
Speaker 1: which to run. And I also think the Bills have
Speaker 1: not played great this year, but you've seen them dominate
Speaker 1: late in the game, not because the other teams are
Speaker 1: making mistakes. They're dominating late of the game against really
Speaker 1: scrappy teams. They did it against the Browns who were
Speaker 1: staying close. They did it against the Bears who were
Speaker 1: staying close. They did eke out that win against the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: and really weird circumstances. They did eke out that win
Speaker 1: against the Lions on Thanksgiving. It really weird circumstances. So
Speaker 1: to me, the Bengals are often winning because the other
Speaker 1: teams are making so many mistakes. Right. We saw it
Speaker 1: with the Bucks. Four turnovers, they come back from seventeen down.
Speaker 1: We saw it last week. To talk about betting, isn't
Speaker 1: any fun. I love the Patriots at three and a half.
Speaker 1: They lose by four. They missed two extra points. They
Speaker 1: fumbled the ball in the five yard line with the
Speaker 1: chance to go ahead with a minute left. Right, So
Speaker 1: the Bengals aren't winning because they're dominating. The Bengals are
Speaker 1: winning because other teams are making mistakes. The Bills are
Speaker 1: winning because they're playing the best at the end of
Speaker 1: the game. All right, Now, I go to the What
Speaker 1: would You Do? Game that I strongly considered brown to
Speaker 1: the Commander's Cleveland getting points. I refuse to watch the
Speaker 1: Browns because of their quarterback and the egregious claims against
Speaker 1: him by twenty four twenty five, and I'm just turned
Speaker 1: off completely by that franchise. But as a number against
Speaker 1: the Commanders, I do think Taylor Heineke. We've got a
Speaker 1: lot of film and there's real limitations. And I think
Speaker 1: Sean Watson, who I was never a huge fan of
Speaker 1: as a pure passer, it's got a little more to
Speaker 1: work with here. I just feel like Cleveland's the better team.
Speaker 1: They'll win this game. It feels like a sharp play.
Speaker 1: What would you do on this? I didn't include it,
Speaker 1: but what would you do? I would play the Browns.
Speaker 1: I'm still debating it. Sometimes a lot of times when
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about the games that I want to play,
Speaker 1: and I've got a list of games that I'm considering,
Speaker 1: I'm waiting to see which way the market goes and
Speaker 1: if i can get a better number. So right now,
Speaker 1: the Browns they're a plus two and a half. The
Speaker 1: wise Guys like the Browns. I was kind of hoping
Speaker 1: to get it at three. It's actually moving in the
Speaker 1: other directions. So you're seeing the wise Guys coming in
Speaker 1: on the Browns right now. I think there's a lot
Speaker 1: of sentiment that just a agrees with you. There's a
Speaker 1: little bit too much weaponry for what Deshaun Watson can do.
Speaker 1: They're banking on literally banking on him getting a little
Speaker 1: bit better. But there's also a lot of research and
Speaker 1: a lot of data, and this applies to a few
Speaker 1: games this week of which I'd love to try to
Speaker 1: convince you. When you were a team that is out
Speaker 1: of contention playing a team that has an opportunity, you
Speaker 1: back the team that is out of contention. It's not
Speaker 1: what people would normally expect. And I think that's why
Speaker 1: you end up getting the point spread value in a
Speaker 1: game like Cleveland is because there is a lot a
Speaker 1: lot of precedent for backing the team that's out of contention. Finally,
Speaker 1: what did I miss? Chad Melman? Action Network? Oh my god?
Speaker 1: Where to begin? Do we want to talk about the
Speaker 1: Bears plus six? Do we want to talk about the
Speaker 1: Colts plus five and a half? Got up? Oh? I
Speaker 1: can tell then a half against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 1: That's not even a corner TV game. That is a
Speaker 1: corner at the neighbor's house. I can see it through
Speaker 1: the window. Game. I can't watch Denver games. I just
Speaker 1: just so discouraging. Look, look, I think I am going
Speaker 1: to bet the Broncos. It's one of those games where
Speaker 1: I'm kind of just hoping it's a twelve and a
Speaker 1: half right now. It might end up being one of
Speaker 1: my biggest bets of the week. And I'm honestly just
Speaker 1: going to wait until Sunday, late afternoon, late early games
Speaker 1: are ending, people are feeling flush. They go in and
Speaker 1: they pound the chiefs, and this line gets back up
Speaker 1: to thirteen or even higher. You know, like in the afternoon.
Speaker 1: They call that chasing a little bit. You get a
Speaker 1: lot of chasing on Sunday night games people won or
Speaker 1: they lost, they're trying to win back some money. They
Speaker 1: do it on Sunday night, they do it on Monday night.
Speaker 1: They do it on the afternoon games too. So look,
Speaker 1: I've just said, over the past thirty two years, colin
Speaker 1: thirty two years eliminated teams in the final two weeks
Speaker 1: of the season, playing teams that are much much better
Speaker 1: than them, so huge sort of win wind differentials. They're
Speaker 1: covering it a sixty two percent clip. Okay, let me
Speaker 1: give you some more and this I'll make it as
Speaker 1: simple as possible. The Broncos are coming off a terrible loss.
Speaker 1: Past twenty years, teams coming off a terrible loss thirty
Speaker 1: five or more covered a seventy percent clip. And these
Speaker 1: are not small sample sizes. I'm not throwing at you
Speaker 1: like you know, going back to the dark ages. These
Speaker 1: are legitimate sample sizes. So you know it's gonna be
Speaker 1: hard for me not to back the Broncos and I'd
Speaker 1: like you to join me camp. Listen, there's there's always
Speaker 1: a friend that offers you to go on a road
Speaker 1: trip and you pass. You know, as Jerry Jones would say,
Speaker 1: El Paso, that was his line. Michael Irvin once said
Speaker 1: this is what I want and split a paper across
Speaker 1: and Jerry Jones said, one of my favorite cities and
Speaker 1: one of my favorite expressions, Michael is el Paso on
Speaker 1: a pass on that contract. Yeah, it's an interesting week.
Speaker 1: I just don't take big numbers. The Niners thing. One
Speaker 1: of the things that really interests me. Just as a broadcaster.
Speaker 1: I'm always fascinated by what's next. You know, I don't
Speaker 1: talk regular season baseball. I don't romanticize sports. It just
Speaker 1: doesn't appeal to me. There's a lot of hosts that
Speaker 1: love it. I get it. I'm not bothered by it.
Speaker 1: It's not me. And preseason quarterback numbers, now they were
Speaker 1: always a little sketchy. I look at them now. If
Speaker 1: you're average in preseason, you're bad. Because Sean McVay, over
Speaker 1: the last six years, there are no more starters Week three,
Speaker 1: so we're down to three games and a lot of
Speaker 1: times it's just scout guys and fourth stringers. So I
Speaker 1: look at that Stidham preseason number and I'm like, god,
Speaker 1: sixty two percent preseason. That's and by the way, he
Speaker 1: knows McDaniel's offense from New England. I know. But this
Speaker 1: is when look the the needle you're always trying to
Speaker 1: thread as a better is an obnoxious number versus bad players,
Speaker 1: And what is the public going to be thinking? What
Speaker 1: is the threshold that makes you uncomfortable? And then betting
Speaker 1: on that. Betting is doing bad things. Betting is doing
Speaker 1: things that make you uncomfortable, right, It's why, It's why
Speaker 1: I've been on the show and I said, the Rams
Speaker 1: are eight point eight and a half point underdogs to Seahawks,
Speaker 1: we got to take them. The Bears are huge underdogs
Speaker 1: of the Eagles, we got to take them. Bronchos are
Speaker 1: huge underdogs the Chiefs two or three weeks ago. We
Speaker 1: gotta take them. It's just what you gotta do. And like, look,
Speaker 1: the truth is, if it's working out sixty percent of
Speaker 1: the time, that's a massive number. You just got to
Speaker 1: win fifty three percent of the time and you're profiting
Speaker 1: like you're one of the best betters in the world.
Speaker 1: So sometimes it's not going to work out, but that's
Speaker 1: what you gotta do. Blazing five is on Friday. I've
Speaker 1: always argued I try to hit fifty five percent a year.
Speaker 1: I'm on that pace. If it was on Monday, I
Speaker 1: think I'd hit fifty seven percent. I'll never be a
Speaker 1: pro better. But that's the difference between making a little
Speaker 1: scratch and losing money. So I tell people who say, oh,
Speaker 1: you missed on Blazing five, I'm getting the worst number.
Speaker 1: Almost always, I'm getting absolutely a terrible number. Like, for instance,
Speaker 1: you know Niners Raiders was much better number earlier in
Speaker 1: the week, and then all of a sudden, you know
Speaker 1: the Derek car thing, and yeah, it's hard, It's really hard.
Speaker 1: And look we joked about it with Christian Watson. Those
Speaker 1: half points, those half yards they matter. Just look at
Speaker 1: this past weekend. The Eagles opened it six as six
Speaker 1: point underdogs against the Cowboys, went down to five and
Speaker 1: a half. I betted at five and a half. The
Speaker 1: Eagles were up by ten in that game. Twice, they
Speaker 1: had the ball twice in the final five minutes, turned
Speaker 1: it over twice, They gave up a third and thirty
Speaker 1: They lost that game by six. I mentioned the Bengals,
Speaker 1: I mean the Patriots against the Bengals. They were three
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs. I betted at three and
Speaker 1: a half. They lost by four on some flukey fluky place.
Speaker 1: It goes the other way too. You only remember the
Speaker 1: times when it's terrible, but the times that when it's
Speaker 1: terrible really hurt quite a bit. And that's when you
Speaker 1: remember I really should get the best of their number.
Speaker 1: Best to you and your fan, Chad Millman. Action Network
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Speaker 1: Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the Volume
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