1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by Fan 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: Duel Football Seasons in full gear. No better place to 3 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: get in on the action than Fan Duel FanDuel app 4 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: is safe. You get paid fast, a lot of ways 5 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: to play the spread, the money line, team totals, players, props, 6 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: a lot of stuff over unders, jump into the action, 7 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: same game. Parlays are my favorite. Just use the promo 8 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 1: code Colin and download the Fan Duel App today. Hi everybody, 9 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 1: it's been a festive holiday week. I've been with my 10 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:48,319 Speaker 1: kids for most of it. So we are dropping our 11 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: sharp or Square segment with Chad Milman a day later. 12 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 1: Let me give you about fifteen minutes of rants before 13 00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: I get to Milman Sharper Square for our bets of 14 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: the week. I am, of course, always the square, so 15 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 1: I saw as I was off a couple of days 16 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: this week, Lebron James saying, and this is Lebron, always 17 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: the manipulator. I don't think he wants to leave Los Angeles. 18 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 1: His family loves it here, he loves it here. Business 19 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: is great here. But he said publicly, Hey, I'm a winner. 20 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 1: I don't want to spend the last couple years of 21 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 1: my career not being on a winning franchise timeout the 22 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 1: previous five years before Lebron James came to the Los 23 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: Angeles Lakers, they were tied with the Knicks for the 24 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 1: worst winning percentage in the league. In twenty fifteen. Twenty sixteen, 25 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: they had seventeen wins. He chose Los Angeles to get rich, 26 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: and I defend him on that, and there are places 27 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: I would love to see the Lakers move him at 28 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: the end of the year. Now Lebron's contract, he's not 29 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: tradeable this year. I know. Strange as it is, he's not. 30 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: I think he's a perfect fit with Luka Doncic, who 31 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:11,799 Speaker 1: has an unbelievably high usage rate that, like James Harden, 32 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 1: will wear him down in the postseason. He's a one 33 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: man offense. Those kind of offenses do not succeed in 34 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: the playoffs, and Luca is two ball dominant, two usage dominant. 35 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 1: He needs somebody to create open, easier shots. Lebron is perfect. 36 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: But next year, Lebron's a year older. I doubt Dallas 37 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: is giving the Lakers a lot in return, although I 38 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: still contend Lebron on his healthy, good nights with energy, 39 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: is a top four or five player in the NBA. 40 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:46,799 Speaker 1: But Lebron made all these choices. He chose a d 41 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: he chose Westbrook, He signed an extension Patrick Beverley that 42 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: feels very much like a Lebron asking the Lakers to 43 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 1: get Patrick Beverly move an NBA vet who's feisty. So 44 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,800 Speaker 1: Lebron will say things. What he's trying to probably do 45 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 1: is force the Laker's hand into giving up those draft 46 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 1: picks and getting more help. But remember this is what 47 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 1: Lebron does. He comes to a franchise, won't play with 48 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: young guys. You have to go give it your draft 49 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,639 Speaker 1: capital to get veteran players. Get up against the kaper 50 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: over it. Then when Lebron leaves, you're ft, You're screwed, 51 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: You're trapped. So the Lakers have seen that had happened 52 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: in Miami, had happened in Cleveland. They don't want to 53 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: become the Heat or the Calves, although both are in 54 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: much better situations than the Lakers today. Derek Carr, so 55 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: the Raiders decide to sit him to keep him healthy 56 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: before they trade him a little bit of outraged by 57 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 1: many people, but Car's contract allows him forty million dollars 58 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: in guaranteed injury money if he got dinged up. So 59 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: the Raiders don't want to write that check. They want 60 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: to keep him healthy, they'll put him on the market. 61 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 1: We can go back and argue about how valuable or 62 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: how talented Derek Carr is. I think he's a top 63 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: twelve quarterback, probably eleven or twelve in that Kirk Cousins, 64 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 1: Dak Prescott area. But here's the real deciding factor. It 65 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: doesn't matter what you do for a living. You could 66 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: be a lawyer, you could be a teacher, you could 67 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 1: be a quarterback, you could be a talk show host. 68 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 1: How many people bid on you make an offer to 69 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:39,239 Speaker 1: you when you're on the market. You know, for years 70 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: and years I watched a lot of people go online 71 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: and this is this is what the Internet sadly has 72 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: become and criticized. Joe Buck. Joe Bucks, this Joe Bucks 73 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: that I work with, Joe Buck, most talented former teammate 74 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:57,480 Speaker 1: I've ever had, most talented teammate I ever had. The 75 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: minute he was available to the market, ESPN spent a 76 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: fortune to bring him and Troy Aikman over. Doesn't matter 77 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 1: what the critics think. It doesn't matter what bots think 78 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: or anonymous trolls. The minute Joe Buck was on the 79 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: open market, he fetched over fifteen million dollars a year, 80 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:23,720 Speaker 1: and ESPN rebuilt their entire Monday Night football production around him. 81 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 1: When Derek Carr goes to the market, Washington, the Jets, 82 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: maybe the Texans, there's several Tampa Bay if Tom Brady bolts, 83 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:41,839 Speaker 1: which I think he will, Miami if they decide they 84 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: want a healthier version of Tua. Derek Carr is almost 85 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: always available, increasingly ta is not. They'll be at least 86 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: a half a dozen teams, including the Colts, the Seahawks, 87 00:05:56,360 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 1: that will absolutely make a or an offer to get 88 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 1: Derek Carr, regardless of what you and I think of 89 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:10,279 Speaker 1: his talent. Judge somebody by the offers they fetch when 90 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 1: they are available to everybody. So I was watching the Huskies, 91 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 1: the well coached Washington Huskies beat Texas in the Alamo Bowl. 92 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:24,720 Speaker 1: And I grew up in the Pacific Northwest, and I 93 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:26,919 Speaker 1: am a Pac twelve fans, so I like watching some 94 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 1: of these random bowl games with Pac twelve teams in them. 95 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 1: So b Jean Robinson, the star running back, best college 96 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: running back, decided not to play, and nobody really had 97 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: a problem with it, and I went back and I 98 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 1: remember Christian mccaffrean Leonard Fournett six years ago, neither playing 99 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: in the national title game, opted out of their final 100 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: college game. Mark Ricked, Miami coach quote, it's sad even 101 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 1: Kirk Herbstreet disturbing trend. These are reasonable, smart people. There's 102 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: many more I could read. Those are two of the 103 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 1: bigger names. People didn't like it at all. It became 104 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 1: a topic, a narrative, a tipping point. And yet Bijean Robinson, 105 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: as good as either to me and potentially a better 106 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: pro than both, decides to sit out as mostly crickets. Why. 107 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: I've come to realize that there are certain people, and 108 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: maybe it's a majority of the people, that are really 109 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 1: reluctant to change their creatures of a habit, and change 110 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 1: is inevitable. Not to sound like a therapist, but that's 111 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: where all the growth comes from when we're uncomfortable. This 112 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:51,679 Speaker 1: is why when people react to nil or the transfer portal, 113 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: I keep saying, chill out, It's all gonna be okay. 114 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: Bijean Robinson and star running back should not play in 115 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 1: the Alamo Bowl. Twenty carries twenty hits. Why would you 116 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: risk possibly fifty to seventy five million dollars one hundred 117 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 1: million dollars of career earnings for the Alamo Bowl Transfer portal. 118 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: Nil sitting out Bowl games. It's okay. These are young 119 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 1: business people, they're leaving college. It's their first job. As 120 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 1: long as they're not playing for the national championship, I 121 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: don't have any problem with it. That would feel a 122 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 1: little selfish, a little, but in this case, in most cases, 123 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: I get it all right. It's time for Sharper Square, 124 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 1: where I lean on Chad Millman CCO Action Network to 125 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: help me figure out and decipher good bets from bad bets. 126 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 1: I mean, all bets are good bets. They're on and 127 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: all my fandel. I mean they make games fun. I'm 128 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 1: betting on stupid Bowl games. Of course they're fun. I 129 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 1: always give you three or four I really like, and 130 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: then you guide me through it. Then I ask you 131 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 1: for advice in a game I want to bet. You 132 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: often talk me into it, and then I ask you 133 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 1: what did I miss? So let's start with a couple 134 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 1: I like. I like the Jets as a slight favorite 135 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: against Seattle. Seattle is reeling. They're not running the football 136 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: when any quarterback the last two years, not name Zach 137 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 1: Wilson takes the helm for the Jets. They pass for 138 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,959 Speaker 1: over three hundred and ten yards a game. I think 139 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: this is a really really interesting roster. I think Mike 140 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 1: White is capable. I'm going to take the Jets minus 141 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 1: one and a half sharper square. Well, it's sharp. It's 142 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: so sharp that the line has moved from one and 143 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: a half to two and a half because the wise 144 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 1: guy money has been coming in. At this point in 145 00:09:56,040 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: a year, when you're handicapping games and trying to think 146 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: about individual teams, you're trying to figure out is the 147 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 1: team that we've been watching for the past six seven 148 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: weeks good if they're playing well, terrible if they're playing badly, 149 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: or is there going to be some kind of regression rights. 150 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: As betters, we're always trying to ride the wave and 151 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 1: predict regression. A team going to be, you know, better 152 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,319 Speaker 1: than it's been playing or worse than it's been playing. 153 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 1: I think wise guys right now feel like what you're 154 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 1: seeing with the Seahawks the past four or five weeks. 155 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 1: Inability to run the ball. Defense can't stop anybody. Geno 156 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: Smith being exposed for being for the reasons why he's 157 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: been a backup for seven years. And the Jets, meanwhile, 158 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 1: are a team that continues to play well because they've 159 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 1: got a top five defense and their top five like 160 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 1: front line, linebacker, secondary, and the only reason why they 161 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 1: can't compete in some games is because of Zack Wilson. 162 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: And it's a testament. It's really about how bad Zach 163 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 1: Wilson is. That you get Mike White in there and 164 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:18,319 Speaker 1: people are like, this is a Super Bowl contending team, 165 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 1: and in reality, it's Mike White Who's still Mike White. 166 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: He's just so much better because he can actually complete 167 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 1: a pass, so you're on the right side. It's an 168 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 1: interesting game to handicap just because of the Seahawks troubles, 169 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: but the wise guys like the Jets. So speaking of 170 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: growth and throughout the season, I never thought Christian Watson 171 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: would matter in a pick. But if he does not play, 172 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: Green Bay is a completely bbgun offense and I like 173 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:47,559 Speaker 1: Minnesota plus three. If he does play, it's probably a push. 174 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 1: But he's become a wildly important part, really the only 175 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: part to their vertical passing game. He's a fifty fifty 176 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,559 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Minnesota plus three here Sharper Square totally. 177 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: It's interesting. You know, we do that sharp Call segment 178 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: on the favorites me and Simon Hunter professional Better, So 179 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 1: I'll explain it for people who don't who don't listen 180 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 1: to this segment. Every week, we'll do two podcasts a week. 181 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: On Tuesday, we talk about the games we like on Thursday. 182 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: By Thursday, we have gotten calls from other professional betters 183 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 1: in the community telling us what they think of the 184 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:27,079 Speaker 1: games we're talking about, and sometimes they're affirming our decisions. 185 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 1: Sometimes they were against our decisions. There were two games 186 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: that popped this week. I think we're going to talk 187 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: about both of them. This is one of them. Completely 188 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: split some wise. Guys love the Packers. Some guys like 189 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 1: the Vikings at three and a half because they were 190 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,559 Speaker 1: getting the hook and we saw that line move. It 191 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:47,480 Speaker 1: was at three and a half it went down to three. 192 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: So I feel there's not a consensus here. If you 193 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: like the Packers, you're probably on the right side with 194 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: some professional betters. I think what people are thinking is 195 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 1: it's a little bit about that wave. The Packers have 196 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 1: been ascending and because of Christian Watson, because their offense 197 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 1: has been playing much better with Aaron Rodgers and sort 198 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 1: of understanding what those receivers can do. They've been getting 199 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:17,959 Speaker 1: a little bit healthier on offense. They've got a very 200 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,959 Speaker 1: good defensive secondary. And I think like the biggest difference 201 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: here with the Vikings is their luckiness has been factored 202 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:29,320 Speaker 1: into the line and that's why if it's at three, 203 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: the wise guys don't like it. At three and a half, 204 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 1: they do. I will tell you we've talked about this 205 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,439 Speaker 1: in the past. We've got this metric called the luck 206 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: rankings at Action Network that basically is able to quantify 207 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,959 Speaker 1: regression and the differentials and luck rankings between the two teams. 208 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: When it's sixteen or more, the team that is less 209 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 1: lucky covers sixty two percent of the time. This is 210 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: the biggest luck differential of the week, so and it's 211 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: in favor of the Packers. So I think that's giving 212 00:13:57,880 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 1: some of us a little bit of pause for going 213 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: all in and the Vikings. By the way, you mentioned 214 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: betting is fun. This is when Bud betting his heart. 215 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 1: When you have Christian Watson over fifty and a half 216 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 1: receiving yards and he gets forty nine in the first half, 217 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 1: and I'm the last catch of the first half that 218 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: he makes, he's knocked out of the game. That's when 219 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 1: you're standing in front of the TV and you're like, 220 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: I don't see him on the field when the Packers 221 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 1: have the ball to start the series in the second half. 222 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: This is terrible. Yeah, happens all the time. So since 223 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: week seven, if you've watched Patriot games, they have no offense, 224 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 1: the play calling, no vertical element. They now turn it 225 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 1: over more protections, hit and miss. I still like Miami's 226 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: personnel and Tua won't play, but Bridgewaters are reasonable facsimile. 227 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take two and a half points. It just 228 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 1: feels like the right side they match up very well. 229 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 1: They've got more juice. I saw him play at ball 230 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: flow and outplay the Bills. I take Miami plus the 231 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 1: point Sharper square. Yeah, that's totally sharp. And what's really 232 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: interesting here, and I imagine we'll talk about this with 233 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 1: another game. Qbs are obviously the most important factor against 234 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: the spread, and if you're one of the top tier qbs, 235 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 1: you're anywhere worth seven points to ten points against the spread. 236 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: Tom Brady at his peak, Aaron Rodgers at his peak, 237 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: was considered to be seven to ten points against the spread, 238 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 1: and it quantifies two things. It quantifies how good you 239 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 1: are as a quarterback, but also the delta between you 240 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: and your backup. And I think what you're seeing here 241 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: is the market responding to Teddy Bridgewater playing Teddy Bridgewater. 242 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: And I'm not exaggerating here. Greatest against the spread record 243 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 1: of any quarterback the past twenty years, So there's going 244 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: to be a sentiment that the Dolphins are still going 245 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: to be the side you want to take. It's why 246 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 1: this line has been sitting at two and a half 247 00:15:57,760 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: and it hasn't moved to three. Part of it is 248 00:15:59,920 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: because nobody's got any faith in the Patriots offense. And 249 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 1: part of it is because they know that Teddy Bridgewater 250 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: can come in and do a lot of the things 251 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: that they need him to do to keep the game close. 252 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: Football seasons underway, now is the perfect time to download 253 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: fan Duel, America's number one sports book. Right now, new 254 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 1: customers get a no sweat first bet up to a 255 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:31,000 Speaker 1: thousand dollars. That's free bets back if your first bet 256 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: doesn't win. The promo code is always Colin. Fan Duel 257 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 1: has tons of betting options. I like the same game, 258 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: parlay bet a little, win a lot. 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Josh McDaniels is a very good play caller 281 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 1: and I think play designer, but his opinion on quarterbacks 282 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 1: is interesting. At one point, Belichick was ready to move 283 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:02,879 Speaker 1: off Brady for Garmpolo. Obviously, Bill went to McDaniel for 284 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:08,159 Speaker 1: his opinion, probably emboldened empower because Bill was over Tommy 285 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 1: and McDaniel like Garoppolo. We know he's now limited. Josh 286 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 1: McDaniel also loved Tim Tebow, nobody else in the world 287 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:20,880 Speaker 1: did as a first round pick. Josh McDaniel likes Jared Stidham, 288 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: who has a fifty two percent completion percentage in his career. 289 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 1: In the preseason was at sixty two. But it's deceiving 290 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 1: because we live in an era now. Last two years, 291 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,439 Speaker 1: no starters play in the preseason. It is mostly second 292 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 1: third teamers and scout teamers. That's a bad percentage. I'm 293 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,680 Speaker 1: going to take San Francisco minus nine and a half. 294 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 1: It makes me sick. I don't know how the Raiders 295 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 1: move the ball. I don't understand it. Battle line Stidham's 296 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 1: not mobile, I don't get it. I'm taking the Niners. 297 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 1: Sharper square. You hit him something really interesting. It's a 298 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 1: square play, but you hit on something really interesting, which 299 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:05,160 Speaker 1: is people who have had success in whatever capacity in 300 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 1: which they need to coach somebody up. Could be a 301 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,360 Speaker 1: media executive, which you are now, which I have been 302 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 1: for a while, could be an NFL coach, could be 303 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 1: an NBA coach. You see something in someone once you 304 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: see it in practice, so you see them execute well, 305 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 1: you see them write a line that you love. You 306 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,879 Speaker 1: hear a segment of theirs on a podcast or on 307 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,919 Speaker 1: a radio show, and you're like, that person's got it, 308 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:33,520 Speaker 1: and you will believe in that long past the time 309 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 1: when they've proven they don't have it. And it's very 310 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 1: possible that in these instances Josh McDaniels just believes I'm 311 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 1: so good at what I do, I into it. I 312 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 1: can impart all of that information into the person who 313 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 1: can be robotic if they just do what I tell 314 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: them to do, it's going to be perfect. So I 315 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 1: was talking about the delta in against the spread value 316 00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: for quarterbacks before the season began. We ranked all this 317 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: at Action Network. The delta between Derek Carr and Jared's 318 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: did him was about six points. So let's say you 319 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: downgrade car because he's underperformed a little bit this year. 320 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 1: So let's say it's four points, right, So then that's 321 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:15,439 Speaker 1: how you get from five and a half, which is 322 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,119 Speaker 1: what this line was in favor of the Niners before 323 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: the news about Derek Carr, to nine and a half. 324 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 1: So I will tell you right now, when it got 325 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,399 Speaker 1: to nine and a half, professional betters started bet on 326 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,640 Speaker 1: the Raiders, and you can see in some places, not everywhere, 327 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 1: but in some places this line has moved to nine. 328 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 1: But you always say you don't want to bet games 329 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,120 Speaker 1: like this. I'd probably have to take the Raiders here, 330 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 1: but I'd hold my nose and then I think there's 331 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 1: better options on the board. Finally, Bengals at home, probably 332 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 1: one of the three biggest football games in Cincinnati in 333 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 1: a decade. They're the more efficient team, they have, the 334 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:57,200 Speaker 1: better protection for their quarterback, the more consistent run game. 335 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:01,440 Speaker 1: What concerns me about Buffalo. They bail on the run, 336 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 1: their protection spotty. As Greg Kosell told me this week, 337 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 1: Josh Allen's taking off now sooner than he has to, 338 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: and they're very prone to mistakes in key red zone situations. 339 00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 1: I think Cincinnati is the best team in the league, 340 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: and I'm going to take him at home plus one 341 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 1: and a half. Not that I'm a seller on Buffalo. 342 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: This is a playoff level intensity that this crowd this moment, 343 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 1: Cincinnati Monday night football. Nobody puts Cincinnati on Monday Night football. 344 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: I think it's going to be an overwhelming presence, and 345 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 1: I'm going to take the team I think will make 346 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 1: fewer mistakes and potentially a shootout. I said at the 347 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,440 Speaker 1: beginning of this segment we were going to refer back 348 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 1: to a couple of different ideas right one was against 349 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 1: the spread value from quarterbacks. The other was sharp calls. 350 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 1: This was the second most called about game, and it 351 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:57,479 Speaker 1: was pretty unanimous. The wise guys were on Buffalo, and 352 00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,959 Speaker 1: it's pretty interesting. I think there's a couple of different 353 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 1: things in play here. One, the Bengals are without their 354 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 1: best offensive lineman, which is a really big deal. As 355 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 1: good as Joe Burrow is against the Blitz, against pass 356 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 1: rush pressure. They're still downe their best offensive lineman. We 357 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: saw last week, and you and I talked about this. 358 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 1: The defensive line has been the key to the resurgence 359 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 1: for the Bengals the past say, six, seven, eight weeks. 360 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,680 Speaker 1: They're a little bit banged up, in fact, significantly banged 361 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 1: up on the defensive line. That plays to the strength 362 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 1: the strength of the Bills. It might allow Josh Allen 363 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 1: to have a little bit more time, but also is 364 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 1: going to leave gaping holes for him to do what 365 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 1: he really does best, which is finding open lanes in 366 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 1: which to run. And I also think the Bills have 367 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,680 Speaker 1: not played great this year, but you've seen them dominate 368 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,400 Speaker 1: late in the game, not because the other teams are 369 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 1: making mistakes. They're dominating late of the game against really 370 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 1: scrappy teams. They did it against the Browns who were 371 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 1: staying close. They did it against the Bears who were 372 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 1: staying close. They did eke out that win against the Dolphins, 373 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,920 Speaker 1: and really weird circumstances. They did eke out that win 374 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 1: against the Lions on Thanksgiving. It really weird circumstances. So 375 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 1: to me, the Bengals are often winning because the other 376 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 1: teams are making so many mistakes. Right. We saw it 377 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 1: with the Bucks. Four turnovers, they come back from seventeen down. 378 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:26,880 Speaker 1: We saw it last week. To talk about betting, isn't 379 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: any fun. I love the Patriots at three and a half. 380 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,439 Speaker 1: They lose by four. They missed two extra points. They 381 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 1: fumbled the ball in the five yard line with the 382 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 1: chance to go ahead with a minute left. Right, So 383 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,040 Speaker 1: the Bengals aren't winning because they're dominating. The Bengals are 384 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 1: winning because other teams are making mistakes. The Bills are 385 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: winning because they're playing the best at the end of 386 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: the game. All right, Now, I go to the What 387 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: would You Do? Game that I strongly considered brown to 388 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: the Commander's Cleveland getting points. I refuse to watch the 389 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: Browns because of their quarterback and the egregious claims against 390 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,240 Speaker 1: him by twenty four twenty five, and I'm just turned 391 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 1: off completely by that franchise. But as a number against 392 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 1: the Commanders, I do think Taylor Heineke. We've got a 393 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 1: lot of film and there's real limitations. And I think 394 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 1: Sean Watson, who I was never a huge fan of 395 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: as a pure passer, it's got a little more to 396 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 1: work with here. I just feel like Cleveland's the better team. 397 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: They'll win this game. It feels like a sharp play. 398 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,399 Speaker 1: What would you do on this? I didn't include it, 399 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,920 Speaker 1: but what would you do? I would play the Browns. 400 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:35,120 Speaker 1: I'm still debating it. Sometimes a lot of times when 401 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,240 Speaker 1: I'm thinking about the games that I want to play, 402 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 1: and I've got a list of games that I'm considering, 403 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,199 Speaker 1: I'm waiting to see which way the market goes and 404 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:44,880 Speaker 1: if i can get a better number. So right now, 405 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,399 Speaker 1: the Browns they're a plus two and a half. The 406 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 1: wise Guys like the Browns. I was kind of hoping 407 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: to get it at three. It's actually moving in the 408 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 1: other directions. So you're seeing the wise Guys coming in 409 00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,639 Speaker 1: on the Browns right now. I think there's a lot 410 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 1: of sentiment that just a agrees with you. There's a 411 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 1: little bit too much weaponry for what Deshaun Watson can do. 412 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,640 Speaker 1: They're banking on literally banking on him getting a little 413 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,600 Speaker 1: bit better. But there's also a lot of research and 414 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 1: a lot of data, and this applies to a few 415 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 1: games this week of which I'd love to try to 416 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,120 Speaker 1: convince you. When you were a team that is out 417 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 1: of contention playing a team that has an opportunity, you 418 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,440 Speaker 1: back the team that is out of contention. It's not 419 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 1: what people would normally expect. And I think that's why 420 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 1: you end up getting the point spread value in a 421 00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 1: game like Cleveland is because there is a lot a 422 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 1: lot of precedent for backing the team that's out of contention. Finally, 423 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 1: what did I miss? Chad Melman? Action Network? Oh my god? 424 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,679 Speaker 1: Where to begin? Do we want to talk about the 425 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 1: Bears plus six? Do we want to talk about the 426 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 1: Colts plus five and a half? Got up? Oh? I 427 00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:00,439 Speaker 1: can tell then a half against the Kansas City Chiefs. 428 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,920 Speaker 1: That's not even a corner TV game. That is a 429 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,120 Speaker 1: corner at the neighbor's house. I can see it through 430 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,120 Speaker 1: the window. Game. I can't watch Denver games. I just 431 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 1: just so discouraging. Look, look, I think I am going 432 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 1: to bet the Broncos. It's one of those games where 433 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:18,440 Speaker 1: I'm kind of just hoping it's a twelve and a 434 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 1: half right now. It might end up being one of 435 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,359 Speaker 1: my biggest bets of the week. And I'm honestly just 436 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 1: going to wait until Sunday, late afternoon, late early games 437 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 1: are ending, people are feeling flush. They go in and 438 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,679 Speaker 1: they pound the chiefs, and this line gets back up 439 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 1: to thirteen or even higher. You know, like in the afternoon. 440 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 1: They call that chasing a little bit. You get a 441 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,119 Speaker 1: lot of chasing on Sunday night games people won or 442 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 1: they lost, they're trying to win back some money. They 443 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 1: do it on Sunday night, they do it on Monday night. 444 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 1: They do it on the afternoon games too. So look, 445 00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:02,959 Speaker 1: I've just said, over the past thirty two years, colin 446 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 1: thirty two years eliminated teams in the final two weeks 447 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 1: of the season, playing teams that are much much better 448 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:19,680 Speaker 1: than them, so huge sort of win wind differentials. They're 449 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: covering it a sixty two percent clip. Okay, let me 450 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,880 Speaker 1: give you some more and this I'll make it as 451 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:30,359 Speaker 1: simple as possible. The Broncos are coming off a terrible loss. 452 00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 1: Past twenty years, teams coming off a terrible loss thirty 453 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 1: five or more covered a seventy percent clip. And these 454 00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 1: are not small sample sizes. I'm not throwing at you 455 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,120 Speaker 1: like you know, going back to the dark ages. These 456 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:50,199 Speaker 1: are legitimate sample sizes. So you know it's gonna be 457 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,120 Speaker 1: hard for me not to back the Broncos and I'd 458 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:57,440 Speaker 1: like you to join me camp. Listen, there's there's always 459 00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 1: a friend that offers you to go on a road 460 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,120 Speaker 1: trip and you pass. You know, as Jerry Jones would say, 461 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 1: El Paso, that was his line. Michael Irvin once said 462 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:09,920 Speaker 1: this is what I want and split a paper across 463 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,119 Speaker 1: and Jerry Jones said, one of my favorite cities and 464 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,679 Speaker 1: one of my favorite expressions, Michael is el Paso on 465 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 1: a pass on that contract. Yeah, it's an interesting week. 466 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:25,680 Speaker 1: I just don't take big numbers. The Niners thing. One 467 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,280 Speaker 1: of the things that really interests me. Just as a broadcaster. 468 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 1: I'm always fascinated by what's next. You know, I don't 469 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,439 Speaker 1: talk regular season baseball. I don't romanticize sports. It just 470 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 1: doesn't appeal to me. There's a lot of hosts that 471 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 1: love it. I get it. I'm not bothered by it. 472 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:47,960 Speaker 1: It's not me. And preseason quarterback numbers, now they were 473 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: always a little sketchy. I look at them now. If 474 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 1: you're average in preseason, you're bad. Because Sean McVay, over 475 00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 1: the last six years, there are no more starters Week three, 476 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:03,320 Speaker 1: so we're down to three games and a lot of 477 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 1: times it's just scout guys and fourth stringers. So I 478 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 1: look at that Stidham preseason number and I'm like, god, 479 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 1: sixty two percent preseason. That's and by the way, he 480 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 1: knows McDaniel's offense from New England. I know. But this 481 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 1: is when look the the needle you're always trying to 482 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 1: thread as a better is an obnoxious number versus bad players, 483 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:38,400 Speaker 1: And what is the public going to be thinking? What 484 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 1: is the threshold that makes you uncomfortable? And then betting 485 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 1: on that. Betting is doing bad things. Betting is doing 486 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:49,600 Speaker 1: things that make you uncomfortable, right, It's why, It's why 487 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 1: I've been on the show and I said, the Rams 488 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 1: are eight point eight and a half point underdogs to Seahawks, 489 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 1: we got to take them. The Bears are huge underdogs 490 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,720 Speaker 1: of the Eagles, we got to take them. Bronchos are 491 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: huge underdogs the Chiefs two or three weeks ago. We 492 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 1: gotta take them. It's just what you gotta do. And like, look, 493 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,360 Speaker 1: the truth is, if it's working out sixty percent of 494 00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 1: the time, that's a massive number. You just got to 495 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:15,520 Speaker 1: win fifty three percent of the time and you're profiting 496 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:17,760 Speaker 1: like you're one of the best betters in the world. 497 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 1: So sometimes it's not going to work out, but that's 498 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 1: what you gotta do. Blazing five is on Friday. I've 499 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 1: always argued I try to hit fifty five percent a year. 500 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 1: I'm on that pace. If it was on Monday, I 501 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,040 Speaker 1: think I'd hit fifty seven percent. I'll never be a 502 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 1: pro better. But that's the difference between making a little 503 00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 1: scratch and losing money. So I tell people who say, oh, 504 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 1: you missed on Blazing five, I'm getting the worst number. 505 00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:46,320 Speaker 1: Almost always, I'm getting absolutely a terrible number. Like, for instance, 506 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,320 Speaker 1: you know Niners Raiders was much better number earlier in 507 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,959 Speaker 1: the week, and then all of a sudden, you know 508 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 1: the Derek car thing, and yeah, it's hard, It's really hard. 509 00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 1: And look we joked about it with Christian Watson. Those 510 00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 1: half points, those half yards they matter. Just look at 511 00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:08,880 Speaker 1: this past weekend. The Eagles opened it six as six 512 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 1: point underdogs against the Cowboys, went down to five and 513 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,560 Speaker 1: a half. I betted at five and a half. The 514 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:19,400 Speaker 1: Eagles were up by ten in that game. Twice, they 515 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,880 Speaker 1: had the ball twice in the final five minutes, turned 516 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 1: it over twice, They gave up a third and thirty 517 00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 1: They lost that game by six. I mentioned the Bengals, 518 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 1: I mean the Patriots against the Bengals. They were three 519 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,840 Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs. I betted at three and 520 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 1: a half. They lost by four on some flukey fluky place. 521 00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,560 Speaker 1: It goes the other way too. You only remember the 522 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:48,480 Speaker 1: times when it's terrible, but the times that when it's 523 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,680 Speaker 1: terrible really hurt quite a bit. And that's when you 524 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,480 Speaker 1: remember I really should get the best of their number. 525 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 1: Best to you and your fan, Chad Millman. Action Network 526 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 1: odds provided by a fan. Happy Holidays, Buddy, Happy New Year, 527 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:23,800 Speaker 1: my friend the Volume. Make sure to check out The 528 00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 1: Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the Volume 529 00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,760 Speaker 1: because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique 530 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 1: perspective understands behind the rope. Also chops up with guests 531 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:39,120 Speaker 1: like Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download 532 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 1: The Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts, only 533 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,480 Speaker 1: on the Volume Podcast Network.