WEBVTT - Ohio Looks for Answers, Workers Call for Benefits

0:00:03.840 --> 0:00:06.920
<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris. This week we

0:00:07.080 --> 0:00:09.760
<v Speaker 1>look at the latest step in the climate change battle,

0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.239
<v Speaker 1>protecting the ocean. It's absorbs about ninety percent of the

0:00:13.400 --> 0:00:19.040
<v Speaker 1>heat chopped by greenhouse stresses so far and also absorbed

0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:21.840
<v Speaker 1>about thirty percent of the CO two that we've emitted.

0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:25.400
<v Speaker 1>So without the ocean, we'd be in a much stickier situation.

0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:29.360
<v Speaker 1>We'll be talking with Bloomberg's Lara Williams. Bloomberg's Alexis Leandis

0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:31.800
<v Speaker 1>joins us with the latest on the housing market. She

0:00:31.880 --> 0:00:35.400
<v Speaker 1>says mortgage lenders are selling homebuyers a lie. And what

0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:39.200
<v Speaker 1>will it take to attract and keep more workers. Bloomberg's

0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:43.800
<v Speaker 1>Sarah Green Carmichael says, maybe don't worry about raises but benefits.

0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.680
<v Speaker 1>We're really seeing employees resisting those calls to be back

0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:48.600
<v Speaker 1>in the office four or five days a week. I

0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:51.400
<v Speaker 1>think some of that pressure from companies is really misguided.

0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:53.200
<v Speaker 1>You know, this is not the time to be climbing

0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:55.360
<v Speaker 1>back a benefit that not only costs you nothing but

0:00:55.640 --> 0:00:59.120
<v Speaker 1>actually helps employees be more productive. Let's get started. We

0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:01.440
<v Speaker 1>begin with the rail road system in the US, which

0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:04.600
<v Speaker 1>has had a rough couple of months after several Norfolk

0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:09.160
<v Speaker 1>Southern derailments, one of them carrying toxic chemicals in East Palestine, Ohio,

0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:12.080
<v Speaker 1>and the death of a train conductor this past week

0:01:12.280 --> 0:01:14.440
<v Speaker 1>when a dump truck and a train collided at a

0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:18.120
<v Speaker 1>railroad crossing in Cleveland, Ohio. And well, now we're learning

0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:20.960
<v Speaker 1>more about safety measures that Norfolk Southern says it'll put

0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:25.319
<v Speaker 1>in place while the National Transportation Safety Board continues its investigations.

0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:29.240
<v Speaker 1>Democratic Senator Shared Brown of Ohio says the railroad is

0:01:29.280 --> 0:01:32.839
<v Speaker 1>simply cutting too many corners. They've laid off a third

0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:36.520
<v Speaker 1>of their workforce, they've compromised on safety, They don't the

0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:40.080
<v Speaker 1>workers don't have enough time to do the thorough inspections

0:01:40.120 --> 0:01:42.480
<v Speaker 1>they should do. But there's another part of this story too.

0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:47.000
<v Speaker 1>The railroad itself usually doesn't own those rail cars. Those

0:01:47.000 --> 0:01:50.760
<v Speaker 1>are often private owners, like shippers. So does that make

0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.160
<v Speaker 1>a difference when it comes to maintenance and safety on

0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:56.960
<v Speaker 1>the rails? Bloomberg Opinion columnist Brook Sutherland joins us Now, Brook,

0:01:57.000 --> 0:02:00.560
<v Speaker 1>thank you for being here, Thanks so much for having me. Okay, So,

0:02:00.600 --> 0:02:04.440
<v Speaker 1>the railroads don't own those rail cars. So if there

0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:06.560
<v Speaker 1>is a problem with one of the rail cars, and

0:02:06.640 --> 0:02:09.959
<v Speaker 1>maybe it starts a chain reaction like a derailment. Is

0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:14.120
<v Speaker 1>the private owner responsible? Is that a complicated question to

0:02:14.160 --> 0:02:18.360
<v Speaker 1>ask who takes care of that? It's definitely a complicated question,

0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:20.840
<v Speaker 1>a lot more complicated than I think I even appreciated

0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:23.280
<v Speaker 1>when I started looking at this. So the railroads do

0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:27.520
<v Speaker 1>own some cars, and there's also an entity that's called TTX,

0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:30.000
<v Speaker 1>which is jointly owned by all of the by a

0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:33.359
<v Speaker 1>number of the major North American railroads and pools car

0:02:33.360 --> 0:02:36.920
<v Speaker 1>asses between them. But the railroads and TTX typically own

0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:40.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, box cars or container cars. They do not

0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:43.960
<v Speaker 1>own hopper cars, which is in the case of this

0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:46.480
<v Speaker 1>derailment that we saw, the one that had the overheated

0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:50.639
<v Speaker 1>bearing or tank cars which carry chemicals which you know,

0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:54.440
<v Speaker 1>in the case of the derailment, spilled or had to

0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:58.280
<v Speaker 1>be released in a controlled way. So typically those are

0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.560
<v Speaker 1>owned by private party, and that can be mean a

0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:03.960
<v Speaker 1>number of different things. That can be the shipping company

0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:06.800
<v Speaker 1>or the shipper you know that's transporting its goods down

0:03:06.840 --> 0:03:09.960
<v Speaker 1>the railroad. It can be a railroad leasing company, or

0:03:09.960 --> 0:03:12.960
<v Speaker 1>it can be a private investor like a bank or

0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:17.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, even a hedge fund. And those owners are

0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:20.760
<v Speaker 1>typically responsible for the maintenance of the car. They're responsible

0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:24.480
<v Speaker 1>for keeping the car in good condition. Um. The railroad, however,

0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:29.079
<v Speaker 1>has responsibility for, you know, overseeing kind of the overall train,

0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:32.480
<v Speaker 1>and it does certain inspections when those cars come onto

0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:35.360
<v Speaker 1>its line to make sure, you know, at least as

0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:38.320
<v Speaker 1>far as it can be determined at that point in time,

0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:40.720
<v Speaker 1>that those cars are in good shape. So there's a

0:03:40.720 --> 0:03:43.960
<v Speaker 1>lot of varying responsibilities here, um, And all of this

0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:48.280
<v Speaker 1>likely has to be sorted out in a legal way

0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:51.080
<v Speaker 1>down the line, and I expect that it will be.

0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:55.400
<v Speaker 1>But there's maarious responsibilities here that makes sense, and it

0:03:55.480 --> 0:03:59.760
<v Speaker 1>also makes maybe explains why this seems so hard, because

0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:03.120
<v Speaker 1>if you have multiple owners of multiple cars that are

0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:07.120
<v Speaker 1>all on one train, I'm wondering, does that mean then

0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:11.120
<v Speaker 1>you find different people performing different inspections at different times.

0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:15.040
<v Speaker 1>Is there any consistency there? Sure? So, I mean there

0:04:15.120 --> 0:04:19.200
<v Speaker 1>are regulations around, you know, keeping the cars themselves in

0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:22.040
<v Speaker 1>good shape. And like I mentioned, the railroads are obligated

0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:25.800
<v Speaker 1>to do an inspection of the train cars when they

0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:28.680
<v Speaker 1>do come onto their line. Now, the railroads, they're somewhat

0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:32.000
<v Speaker 1>limited in what they can inspect here. It's mostly what

0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:36.080
<v Speaker 1>they can determine visually or from simple checks. So something

0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:39.719
<v Speaker 1>like bearing, which in the case of the derailment, like

0:04:39.720 --> 0:04:42.200
<v Speaker 1>we said, is what overheated and has been pointed to

0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:45.080
<v Speaker 1>by the NTSB as a potential trigger for this derailment.

0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:48.520
<v Speaker 1>That's in a metal box essentially, So the only way

0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.919
<v Speaker 1>to really inspect it is to take the wheel set apart.

0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:54.839
<v Speaker 1>Now you're not going to do that every time you

0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:58.479
<v Speaker 1>want to run a train. So there is a system here,

0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:01.880
<v Speaker 1>there is regulations, but you know, like we said, there's

0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:04.240
<v Speaker 1>a number of different parties that have their hands on

0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.720
<v Speaker 1>these rail cars. And that's not just the owner and

0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:09.800
<v Speaker 1>one railroad. Also, by the way cars the way our

0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:13.440
<v Speaker 1>network works in North America, cars will be transferred between

0:05:13.480 --> 0:05:15.800
<v Speaker 1>the major North American railroads and also what we call

0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:19.760
<v Speaker 1>short haul lines. Oh so if you have a train,

0:05:20.160 --> 0:05:25.600
<v Speaker 1>say going through Ohio, and it's on the Norfolk Southern

0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:28.080
<v Speaker 1>rail line at one point, it might be on a

0:05:28.120 --> 0:05:31.080
<v Speaker 1>whole different rail line on another time, it's not consistently

0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:34.200
<v Speaker 1>with that same rail line. Correct. The railroads don't have

0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:37.680
<v Speaker 1>networks that traverse the entire United States. So if the

0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:40.479
<v Speaker 1>shipment starts on the West Coast, for example, it might

0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:44.080
<v Speaker 1>touch multiple different railroads before it makes its way to Ohio.

0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:51.000
<v Speaker 1>Oh so, no, this is tremendously complex. It is, yes,

0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:53.080
<v Speaker 1>And I mean I think we've seen this time and

0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:55.760
<v Speaker 1>time again in the industrial sector, especially over the last

0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.720
<v Speaker 1>couple of years, the supply chains and manufacturing have been

0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:01.360
<v Speaker 1>in such a national spotlight. Is that these systems are

0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:05.240
<v Speaker 1>not necessarily as simple as you might think, or as

0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:07.640
<v Speaker 1>what we have grown used to, you know, in the

0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:11.279
<v Speaker 1>world where we can track our FedEx and ups deliveries

0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:14.520
<v Speaker 1>on our phone, or we can see with software, you know,

0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:17.279
<v Speaker 1>so much more than we could even a few years ago.

0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:19.120
<v Speaker 1>And I think it comes as a surprise to some

0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:23.800
<v Speaker 1>people just how complicated these more industrial parts of the

0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:25.960
<v Speaker 1>economy are. And it's not just railroads. We learned this

0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:28.760
<v Speaker 1>as well from the ports, with all of the challenges

0:06:28.800 --> 0:06:31.320
<v Speaker 1>that they had in navigating you know, the huge sturge

0:06:31.400 --> 0:06:35.200
<v Speaker 1>of shifts that came in during that peak demand for

0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:37.680
<v Speaker 1>physical good during the pandemic. I'm going to throw you

0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:40.640
<v Speaker 1>a bit of a curveball here. In the case of

0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:44.599
<v Speaker 1>the train derailment in East Palestine, there were toxic chemicals spilled,

0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:47.800
<v Speaker 1>and Norfolk Southern came forward and said they've pledged to

0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:50.800
<v Speaker 1>do whatever it takes to make things right. But as

0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:53.880
<v Speaker 1>you said earlier, and as they've said, the Hopper rail

0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:56.600
<v Speaker 1>car is where the problem began, and that doesn't belong

0:06:56.680 --> 0:07:00.480
<v Speaker 1>to them. So does something like that tie our hands,

0:07:00.560 --> 0:07:04.159
<v Speaker 1>tie Norfolk Southern's hands, or does it give them a

0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:08.200
<v Speaker 1>reason to wash their hands of responsibility. I don't think

0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.920
<v Speaker 1>that Norfolk Southern can wash the hands of responsibility here.

0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:14.560
<v Speaker 1>I think you know, they've pledged to do whatever it

0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:17.360
<v Speaker 1>takes to clean up the community, and I think they should.

0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:18.920
<v Speaker 1>And I think this is a moment for not just

0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:20.880
<v Speaker 1>nor Folks ou then, but all of the railroads to

0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:24.560
<v Speaker 1>reevaluate safety and look at what happened here and say, Okay,

0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:27.840
<v Speaker 1>what can we do better? Are there redesdencies that we

0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:30.560
<v Speaker 1>can build into our system that might prevent something like

0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:33.560
<v Speaker 1>this from happening again? Are there other regulations that have

0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:36.800
<v Speaker 1>been proposed that maybe we thought didn't make sense, but

0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:39.480
<v Speaker 1>this accident should force us to reevaluate. I think those

0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:42.400
<v Speaker 1>conversations need to be happening. But I do think that

0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:46.720
<v Speaker 1>those conversations should include the broader railroad industry, and that

0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:50.040
<v Speaker 1>must also mean you know that rail car owners are involved,

0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:55.760
<v Speaker 1>the shippers themselves, the leasing companies, and also regulators, and

0:07:55.880 --> 0:07:58.520
<v Speaker 1>I think there should really be a collaborative conversation that

0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:01.680
<v Speaker 1>brings in all parties here. I think, you know, the

0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:06.160
<v Speaker 1>people in Ohio want answers, and that needs to include

0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:09.760
<v Speaker 1>a discussion of who owned that railcar, how it was inspected,

0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:12.760
<v Speaker 1>how it was maintained, and what went wrong with that bearing.

0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:16.080
<v Speaker 1>I want to look ahead and figure out what may

0:08:16.160 --> 0:08:20.520
<v Speaker 1>happen from here. I'm thinking regulations, other railroads watching this

0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.400
<v Speaker 1>and how it plays out and following suit. What do

0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:26.840
<v Speaker 1>you see coming out of this? I think that you know,

0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:30.680
<v Speaker 1>there's been a lot of discussions about the hot bearing detectors.

0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:33.760
<v Speaker 1>These are temperature sensors that are along the rail tracks

0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:37.400
<v Speaker 1>in Norfolk. Southern has already said they're planning to enhance

0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:41.400
<v Speaker 1>their work of these detectors. They're going they're already you know,

0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:45.760
<v Speaker 1>roughly about every thirteen point nine miles, I believe the

0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:47.800
<v Speaker 1>railroad said, but they're going to you know, take a

0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:50.800
<v Speaker 1>closer look at any times where there might be longer

0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:53.280
<v Speaker 1>gaps and make sure that they have proper density of

0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:56.319
<v Speaker 1>those detectors. There's also new technology out there, whether that

0:08:56.440 --> 0:09:01.400
<v Speaker 1>might be acoustic detectors, which can perhaps take up situations

0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:04.600
<v Speaker 1>where the bearing is at risk of overheating before it

0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:09.080
<v Speaker 1>actually does. There's also you know, new next generation technology

0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:13.000
<v Speaker 1>that can scan a broader cross section of the wheel set.

0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:16.400
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of things that could be done potentially

0:09:16.440 --> 0:09:20.560
<v Speaker 1>that might make this network of detectors slightly more robust.

0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:22.600
<v Speaker 1>I should point out also that this is not something

0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:27.480
<v Speaker 1>that is currently regulated. Railroads install these detectors voluntarily, and

0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:31.720
<v Speaker 1>they have discretion over how they deploy them. So perhaps

0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:34.520
<v Speaker 1>this is something that needs to be crystallized at the

0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:37.000
<v Speaker 1>government level, and I think that's where you know, a

0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:39.680
<v Speaker 1>lot of the discussion is and at this moment, and

0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:42.240
<v Speaker 1>that probably seems like the most likely at this point.

0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:44.400
<v Speaker 1>I know that there's been a number of different proposals

0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:46.800
<v Speaker 1>that have put forward, and as far as anything else,

0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:50.600
<v Speaker 1>it's somewhat difficult to handicap at this point. But you know,

0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:52.600
<v Speaker 1>certainly it seems like the rail industry is going to

0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:55.880
<v Speaker 1>stay in the spotlight and needs to have some serious

0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:59.600
<v Speaker 1>conversations about safety. So beyond regulations and those conversations, new

0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:03.560
<v Speaker 1>techn anologies to help people stay safe. Yes, absolutely, I mean,

0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:08.520
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, having covered the manufacturing industry, closely.

0:10:08.520 --> 0:10:10.840
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of technology being deployed there that could

0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:13.960
<v Speaker 1>have a placed on the rails in terms of predictive maintenance,

0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:19.240
<v Speaker 1>using industrial software and censors to draw data out of

0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:25.439
<v Speaker 1>the equipment itself and make better decisions using that information,

0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:27.800
<v Speaker 1>and in terms of how to run that equipment most

0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:31.440
<v Speaker 1>efficiently and most safely. All right, thank you Brooke for

0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:33.920
<v Speaker 1>taking the time with us. We appreciate it. Thank you

0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:37.560
<v Speaker 1>so much. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Brooks Sutherland covers deals and

0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:42.040
<v Speaker 1>industrial companies and writes the Industrial Strength newsletter here at Bloomberg.

0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:44.160
<v Speaker 1>Coming up, we're going to take a look at what

0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:48.160
<v Speaker 1>it takes to attract and retain workers. Bloomberg's Sarah Green

0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:51.959
<v Speaker 1>Carmichael will join us. Just ahead. You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion.

0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:56.319
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris. And despite

0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.400
<v Speaker 1>fears of a slowdown, the labor market is still pretty tight.

0:10:59.559 --> 0:11:03.040
<v Speaker 1>Most companies aren't laying people off. They're more concerned about

0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:06.800
<v Speaker 1>retaining the workers they have. Some employers might not want

0:11:06.800 --> 0:11:11.040
<v Speaker 1>to grant pay increases in an uncertain economy, but there's

0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:14.040
<v Speaker 1>another way. We turned out. A Bloomberg Opinion editor Sarah

0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:17.280
<v Speaker 1>Green Carmichael, and she joins us. Now it seems like

0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:20.560
<v Speaker 1>an obvious solution if you can't give your workers raises,

0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:24.880
<v Speaker 1>provide benefits. But does that work? It does? I think

0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:28.440
<v Speaker 1>in terms of enhancing employee loyalty, there's some good evidence

0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:31.280
<v Speaker 1>that benefits can do that, especially if they're well designed.

0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:35.880
<v Speaker 1>So I'm specifically thinking about things three things. One is

0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:39.360
<v Speaker 1>a benefit that's pretty rare or unusual. One is a

0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:42.240
<v Speaker 1>benefit that has a real bang for the buck, offers

0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:44.880
<v Speaker 1>real financial value to people. And then finally, you know,

0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:47.960
<v Speaker 1>a benefit that actually has a meaningful impact on people's lives.

0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.120
<v Speaker 1>If we think about something that's sort of the opposite

0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:55.240
<v Speaker 1>of those I might pick like dental insurance or a

0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:59.240
<v Speaker 1>sort of general employee wellness kind of benefit. Typically those

0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:01.280
<v Speaker 1>sorts of benefits, they don't offer a lot of money,

0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:03.800
<v Speaker 1>they're pretty common, and you're not even ever going to

0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:06.040
<v Speaker 1>hear someone say like, well, you know, I really wanted

0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:08.160
<v Speaker 1>to quit, but then I thought about my dental engas

0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:12.200
<v Speaker 1>got dental. But yeah, But if you're thinking about something

0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.319
<v Speaker 1>like maybe a sabbatical, well, now we're in a whole

0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.960
<v Speaker 1>new ball game. Okay, So do you find that there

0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:22.040
<v Speaker 1>are businesses that perhaps can't afford to give raises, but

0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.040
<v Speaker 1>can somehow find a way to give these benefits, Like,

0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:29.000
<v Speaker 1>is there some sort of cost effectiveness there? Yeah. So

0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:31.800
<v Speaker 1>one of the things that's interesting about benefits is that

0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:34.480
<v Speaker 1>they aren't in the US anyway. They are taxed differently

0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:37.480
<v Speaker 1>than raises, for one thing, so there's some tax advantages.

0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:43.120
<v Speaker 1>They are also typically cheaper to provide than across the

0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:45.600
<v Speaker 1>board raise, especially at a time of such high inflation.

0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:47.760
<v Speaker 1>So if you think about something like an on site

0:12:47.840 --> 0:12:51.600
<v Speaker 1>childcare that's very rare benefit. It would be expensive to

0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:56.080
<v Speaker 1>set that up potentially, but still cheaper than giving raises

0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:58.199
<v Speaker 1>to a bunch of people. And you know, it might

0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:01.079
<v Speaker 1>not only benefit employees who would use it, but also

0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:03.840
<v Speaker 1>people who are younger, maybe thinking about having kids. It

0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:06.080
<v Speaker 1>might convince them to stay with the firm for longer.

0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:09.360
<v Speaker 1>So there's definitely economies of scale and offering a good benefit.

0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:11.880
<v Speaker 1>Is it something that they can afford in other ways? Though,

0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:14.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm just looking for more advantages for the business owner

0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:19.160
<v Speaker 1>in providing these worker benefits. What are they finding for them? Yeah,

0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:23.640
<v Speaker 1>of course. So one example comes from Google. You now

0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:26.760
<v Speaker 1>many years ago they've now expanded their parental leaf policy.

0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:29.439
<v Speaker 1>For example, twice and two thousand and seven they increased

0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:32.200
<v Speaker 1>it from twelve weeks to eighteen weeks, and then just

0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:34.360
<v Speaker 1>last year they bumped it up from eighteen weeks to

0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:37.240
<v Speaker 1>twenty four weeks. And the reason that they are doing

0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:40.120
<v Speaker 1>this is not just because it helps them attract talent

0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:43.679
<v Speaker 1>and not just because it helps them sort of seem

0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 1>like a cool employer to work for. They have found

0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:50.480
<v Speaker 1>that when they increased that benefit, they've reduced the rate

0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:53.800
<v Speaker 1>at which women who've had children quit their jobs. So

0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:56.360
<v Speaker 1>when they bumped it up from twelve weeks to eighteen

0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:59.079
<v Speaker 1>weeks in two thousand and seven, they have the rate

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:02.440
<v Speaker 1>at which new moms were quitting. So that really matters

0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:04.960
<v Speaker 1>because no matter what the labor market is like, it

0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:08.160
<v Speaker 1>is always expensive to replace workers who leave. It takes time,

0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:12.360
<v Speaker 1>it's disruptive, it costs real money. Sometimes you end up

0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:15.520
<v Speaker 1>having to pay more to hire someone new from outside

0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:18.599
<v Speaker 1>the organization. So retention is really important not only to

0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:22.280
<v Speaker 1>continuity of the business, not only to productivity, but also

0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:24.760
<v Speaker 1>to the bottom line. I'm going to throw you a

0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:26.520
<v Speaker 1>bit of a curveball, but I trust that you can

0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:30.960
<v Speaker 1>handle it. I'm not worried. You mentioned the data and

0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:35.200
<v Speaker 1>keeping track of what it is that the employees want

0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 1>or what it seems to get them more quote embedded

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:40.200
<v Speaker 1>as you as you put it is that key to

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:43.400
<v Speaker 1>this for companies that you can throw all the benefits

0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:46.760
<v Speaker 1>you want at your employee workforce, but you need to

0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:49.240
<v Speaker 1>keep track of what works and what doesn't. You need

0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:52.760
<v Speaker 1>to keep track of not just the cost effectiveness of it,

0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:57.080
<v Speaker 1>but the personnel part of it too totally. And this

0:14:57.200 --> 0:14:59.240
<v Speaker 1>is one of the reasons I think that you're seeing

0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:03.240
<v Speaker 1>companies cut back on things like free food if free

0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:07.160
<v Speaker 1>food costs real money and it's not something it's like

0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.840
<v Speaker 1>something that's sort of nice to have, but it's not again,

0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:12.560
<v Speaker 1>it's not keeping people from walking out the door. So

0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:16.320
<v Speaker 1>I think companies are very smart. Companies anyway are very

0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:19.400
<v Speaker 1>sensitive to like what's really keeping people here? What are

0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:22.600
<v Speaker 1>people really evaluating. I think companies should always be evaluating

0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:26.320
<v Speaker 1>their benefits to see what people are using. If you're,

0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:29.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, commuter benefit, if no one is using that benefit,

0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:33.320
<v Speaker 1>maybe don't keep offering it. Or if no one's using it,

0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:35.360
<v Speaker 1>probably doesn't hurt you to keep offering it because you're

0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:38.160
<v Speaker 1>not spending any money on it. That's true. I do

0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:40.920
<v Speaker 1>think it makes sense to constantly be looking at and

0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:44.480
<v Speaker 1>reevaluating the benefits you're offering and see what works. So

0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:46.800
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about some of those employee perks that we

0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:50.640
<v Speaker 1>saw during COVID that maybe are being brought back and

0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:53.360
<v Speaker 1>brought back, as in clawed back, as in removed from

0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 1>the offerings that would be You mentioned the free food,

0:15:56.320 --> 0:16:00.040
<v Speaker 1>the free lunch, subsidized parking, flexible work hours seems to

0:15:59.880 --> 0:16:02.320
<v Speaker 1>be something that has a little more stickiness to it.

0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:05.720
<v Speaker 1>No exactly. I think it's important to me to think

0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:08.920
<v Speaker 1>about these in sort of two different categories, right. I

0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.760
<v Speaker 1>think it's very easy for companies to put the case

0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 1>to their employees that something like subsidized parking is really

0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:18.560
<v Speaker 1>a pandemic era benefit. It is something that helps you

0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:21.160
<v Speaker 1>maybe avoid germs on the subway, and it is a

0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.360
<v Speaker 1>way to get you into the office at a scary

0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:25.840
<v Speaker 1>time where they recognize that you might really not want

0:16:25.840 --> 0:16:28.400
<v Speaker 1>to come in for health reasons. It is much easier

0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:31.480
<v Speaker 1>to take something like that away than it is to

0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:37.040
<v Speaker 1>take away flexibility. Flexibility costs nothing for companies to offer.

0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:41.600
<v Speaker 1>It is something that is highly prized by employees because

0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.040
<v Speaker 1>when we're talking about flexibility, What we're really talking about

0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:46.760
<v Speaker 1>is autonomy. Are you an adult? Can you decide how

0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:49.600
<v Speaker 1>to do your job? Can you have control over when

0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:52.480
<v Speaker 1>and where you work? That's something that is like a

0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:55.640
<v Speaker 1>price beyond measure to an employee, And that's why I

0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:58.280
<v Speaker 1>think we're really seeing employees resisting those calls to be

0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:00.760
<v Speaker 1>back in the office four or five days, and why

0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:03.640
<v Speaker 1>I think some of that pressure from companies is really misguided.

0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:05.440
<v Speaker 1>You know, this is not the time to be clawing

0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:07.639
<v Speaker 1>back a benefit then not only cost you nothing, but

0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:11.119
<v Speaker 1>actually helps employees be more productive. When you say that

0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:14.560
<v Speaker 1>it provides worker autonomy to have those flexible work hours,

0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:16.879
<v Speaker 1>I want to go back to something we used to

0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:20.000
<v Speaker 1>hear in the nineties all the time, the work life balance. Right,

0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:24.080
<v Speaker 1>it means something, especially whether there's a pandemic or not,

0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:26.920
<v Speaker 1>especially if you're a parent with young kids, especially if

0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:29.600
<v Speaker 1>you are an adult who is taking care of an

0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:35.000
<v Speaker 1>aging parent. To have that flexibility would not only give

0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:39.240
<v Speaker 1>you more loyalty to your manager, but also would give

0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:42.520
<v Speaker 1>you more opportunities to get more work done. But maybe

0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:46.400
<v Speaker 1>when other people aren't in the office, that sort of thing. Yeah, exactly,

0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:50.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think commuting is a huge times huck,

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:53.720
<v Speaker 1>and what we saw during a pandemic was yes, you

0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:55.879
<v Speaker 1>laugh because yes, you know it's true. Oh yeah, what

0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:58.840
<v Speaker 1>we saw during the pandemic was really that people recouped

0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.920
<v Speaker 1>that commute time and they did use it. In some cases,

0:18:02.520 --> 0:18:05.000
<v Speaker 1>they use some of it for their own wellness, but

0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:07.440
<v Speaker 1>they use a lot of it and maybe even most

0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:11.400
<v Speaker 1>of it for their jobs, and that's how they get

0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:15.080
<v Speaker 1>more done. So I think it's something where I'm a

0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:17.360
<v Speaker 1>manager in a company and if there's something I can

0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:19.760
<v Speaker 1>give people that cost me nothing and that helps them

0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:22.360
<v Speaker 1>do their jobs better and actually get even more done,

0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:25.600
<v Speaker 1>that's something I'd like to keep giving them. Where do

0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:28.440
<v Speaker 1>you see things going from here? Do you see more

0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:32.640
<v Speaker 1>benefits being offered? Do you see more flexibility being offered?

0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:35.400
<v Speaker 1>What are you going to be watching for in this workspace?

0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:37.520
<v Speaker 1>I know you don't have a crystal ball, but where

0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:40.120
<v Speaker 1>do you see the trends? A couple of trends. I'm

0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:44.640
<v Speaker 1>seeing our greater flexibility around who counts as a loved one.

0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:48.320
<v Speaker 1>So under old sort of caregiving policies, it had to

0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:50.240
<v Speaker 1>be a child or a parent or a spouse who

0:18:50.320 --> 0:18:53.360
<v Speaker 1>is sick for you to take some form of caregiving leave.

0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:56.000
<v Speaker 1>But I'm now seeing more companies saying, you know what

0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:58.919
<v Speaker 1>your loved one is, whoever you say it is, and

0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:01.960
<v Speaker 1>if they need, you know, time for you to take

0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:04.800
<v Speaker 1>care of them, you can have that paid caregiving leave.

0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:08.400
<v Speaker 1>So that's one thing I'm seeing. Other stuff I'm really

0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:11.320
<v Speaker 1>interested in is this sort of trend to sabbaticals. I'd

0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:13.199
<v Speaker 1>love to have more data on that. The data we

0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:14.960
<v Speaker 1>have so far as pretty thin, but I'd love to

0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:17.680
<v Speaker 1>know if more companies are actually offering them. And then

0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:20.800
<v Speaker 1>experiments like four day workweeks. There have been some fascinating

0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:24.440
<v Speaker 1>experiments in Europe with the four day workweek. One manager

0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:26.679
<v Speaker 1>in Iceland said it's like a gift from the heaven.

0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:29.240
<v Speaker 1>I would love to see more data on that, and

0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:31.920
<v Speaker 1>maybe some more US companies experimenting with that as well.

0:19:32.040 --> 0:19:33.520
<v Speaker 1>All right, we're going to watch for it with you.

0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:36.120
<v Speaker 1>Thank you, Sarah so much for taking the time. Thank

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:39.560
<v Speaker 1>you for having me, Bloomberg Opinion Editor Sarah Greencar Michael,

0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:43.119
<v Speaker 1>don't forget. We're available as a podcast on Apple, Spotify

0:19:43.320 --> 0:19:46.479
<v Speaker 1>or your favorite podcast platform. Stay with us. Coming up,

0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:49.880
<v Speaker 1>we'll look at mortgages and the housing market. Bloomberg's Alexis

0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:54.480
<v Speaker 1>Leondis warns that homebuyers are buying into a lie. This

0:19:54.560 --> 0:19:58.280
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg opinion. This is Bloomberg opinion. I'm Amy Morris.

0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:02.000
<v Speaker 1>Realtors and mortgage lenders are giving worried home buyers some

0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:05.480
<v Speaker 1>advice as mortgage rates approach the two decade high of

0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:10.359
<v Speaker 1>seven percent reached in November. Marry the house, date the rate,

0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:13.560
<v Speaker 1>But that could be bad advice. Many new homeowners are

0:20:13.560 --> 0:20:17.240
<v Speaker 1>finding themselves in a longer term relationship with today's rate

0:20:17.240 --> 0:20:20.320
<v Speaker 1>than they expected. Vice President Kamala Harris has said that

0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:23.160
<v Speaker 1>owning a home is really part of the American dream.

0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:30.160
<v Speaker 1>A home represents financial security, the opportunity to build wealth

0:20:30.280 --> 0:20:35.959
<v Speaker 1>and equity. We know that when we increase home ownership,

0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:41.520
<v Speaker 1>it strengthens communities and it strengthens our economy. Vice President

0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:45.960
<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris on how homeownership can help the entire community.

0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:49.359
<v Speaker 1>So what our home buyers facing? Joining us now with

0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:53.040
<v Speaker 1>some insight, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Alexis leand us. Okay, so

0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:55.680
<v Speaker 1>let's look at a little history. For the past ten years,

0:20:55.840 --> 0:21:00.000
<v Speaker 1>rates were much lower. This rate hike is a relative

0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:03.800
<v Speaker 1>satively new phenomenon. So psychologically, do you feel like that

0:21:03.920 --> 0:21:07.000
<v Speaker 1>leads people to believe that maybe rates are likely to

0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:10.560
<v Speaker 1>drop just any day now. Yes, I think because you know,

0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:13.000
<v Speaker 1>even if we can look at the headlines and read

0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:15.560
<v Speaker 1>the paper and see on Bloomberg and Scene BC, you

0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:17.800
<v Speaker 1>know that rates are higher than they've been. I think

0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:22.200
<v Speaker 1>for most adults and people who have been buying homes

0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:24.679
<v Speaker 1>for the last ten or fifteen years, they've been accustomed

0:21:24.680 --> 0:21:28.200
<v Speaker 1>to rates that have averaged less than four percent. And

0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:31.560
<v Speaker 1>obviously we saw a very fast uptick in rates last

0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:34.960
<v Speaker 1>year when the FED started hiking, and again we've seen

0:21:35.280 --> 0:21:37.600
<v Speaker 1>rates start to increase this year, creep back up, and

0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:40.199
<v Speaker 1>they're approaching that two decade hive seven percent that they

0:21:40.280 --> 0:21:42.760
<v Speaker 1>reached in November. But the point of my column is

0:21:42.840 --> 0:21:45.080
<v Speaker 1>to point out for those who think that they can

0:21:45.160 --> 0:21:47.440
<v Speaker 1>just refinance because rates are in fact just going to

0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:49.840
<v Speaker 1>drop back down to where they had been, they really

0:21:49.880 --> 0:21:53.080
<v Speaker 1>need to think again and to maybe get comfortable with

0:21:53.119 --> 0:21:56.880
<v Speaker 1>this idea of higher for longer, for years refinancing would

0:21:56.960 --> 0:22:02.240
<v Speaker 1>give lenders more business and and the consumer more savings.

0:22:02.760 --> 0:22:05.679
<v Speaker 1>What is it going to take to get back to that, right? Well,

0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:07.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people you know, think like, oh, if

0:22:07.640 --> 0:22:09.359
<v Speaker 1>I'm just going to cut my rate by half a

0:22:09.359 --> 0:22:12.359
<v Speaker 1>percentage point, you know, that's going to save me monthly.

0:22:12.400 --> 0:22:14.640
<v Speaker 1>And that may be true if you even do get

0:22:14.640 --> 0:22:17.560
<v Speaker 1>that a half percentage point decrease, But ultimately you really

0:22:17.560 --> 0:22:20.119
<v Speaker 1>have to think about the entire kind of life of

0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:21.480
<v Speaker 1>the loan, like how long are you going to stay

0:22:21.480 --> 0:22:23.040
<v Speaker 1>in the house for it. You have to think about

0:22:23.040 --> 0:22:26.399
<v Speaker 1>things like refinancing costs. It's expensive to refinance. You know,

0:22:26.440 --> 0:22:29.320
<v Speaker 1>there's an appraisal fee there, the origination cost, there are

0:22:29.320 --> 0:22:31.679
<v Speaker 1>lots of things that are packed into that. It varies

0:22:31.720 --> 0:22:33.760
<v Speaker 1>by lender, of course, but it can be anywhere from

0:22:33.800 --> 0:22:36.640
<v Speaker 1>two percent to six percent of the loan amount. So again,

0:22:36.680 --> 0:22:38.359
<v Speaker 1>to think that a refinance is going to be a

0:22:38.400 --> 0:22:40.720
<v Speaker 1>slam dunk and we'll save you money, you know, may

0:22:40.720 --> 0:22:43.359
<v Speaker 1>not necessarily be true moving forward. You know, that's something

0:22:43.359 --> 0:22:46.800
<v Speaker 1>that you mentioned in your column on the Bloomberg terminal

0:22:46.920 --> 0:22:51.280
<v Speaker 1>that really grabbed my attention as a homeowner, because sometimes

0:22:51.280 --> 0:22:54.639
<v Speaker 1>when you refinance, you actually wind up paying more because

0:22:54.680 --> 0:22:59.080
<v Speaker 1>that mortgage clock restarts right, it starts again, and you

0:22:59.119 --> 0:23:01.040
<v Speaker 1>may think, well, hey, I'm saving a hundred or two

0:23:01.119 --> 0:23:04.119
<v Speaker 1>hundred dollars on my monthly payment. But because you're starting again,

0:23:04.160 --> 0:23:06.199
<v Speaker 1>and most people like if you end up doing a

0:23:06.280 --> 0:23:09.000
<v Speaker 1>thirty year loan once again, you're starting over, so over

0:23:09.040 --> 0:23:11.080
<v Speaker 1>the life of that loan, if you calculate all the

0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:14.320
<v Speaker 1>interest you're paying, you may end up actually not coming

0:23:14.320 --> 0:23:16.280
<v Speaker 1>out ahead. And a lot of this, again has to

0:23:16.320 --> 0:23:17.760
<v Speaker 1>do with how long you're staying in the house for.

0:23:17.880 --> 0:23:19.840
<v Speaker 1>If you plan to move soon, you may not care

0:23:19.920 --> 0:23:22.000
<v Speaker 1>because you're just going to sell and pay off your

0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:25.440
<v Speaker 1>mortgage and move somewhere else. But you also, if you

0:23:25.480 --> 0:23:26.920
<v Speaker 1>are going to move soon, you don't want to move

0:23:26.960 --> 0:23:28.600
<v Speaker 1>too soon because you want to make sure that you're

0:23:28.640 --> 0:23:30.719
<v Speaker 1>staying in the house for long enough to recoup what

0:23:30.760 --> 0:23:34.000
<v Speaker 1>you've paid to refinance in the first place. Now, let's

0:23:34.000 --> 0:23:36.480
<v Speaker 1>talk about some other X factors, not just rates, but

0:23:36.560 --> 0:23:40.920
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned in your column refinancing calculations are also more complex.

0:23:41.200 --> 0:23:45.240
<v Speaker 1>Then realtors and lenders will admit, what do you mean, sure? So,

0:23:45.320 --> 0:23:47.280
<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of times again, people just focus

0:23:47.320 --> 0:23:49.320
<v Speaker 1>on the rate. Okay, if they think like I, you know,

0:23:49.359 --> 0:23:52.119
<v Speaker 1>I just got a rate of six and a half percent, Well,

0:23:52.160 --> 0:23:54.680
<v Speaker 1>once rates come down to six percent or even five

0:23:54.720 --> 0:23:56.320
<v Speaker 1>and a half, you know that's a half a percentage

0:23:56.320 --> 0:23:59.199
<v Speaker 1>point less on a monthly basis, I'm going to be saving,

0:23:59.240 --> 0:24:02.160
<v Speaker 1>so it makes sense. But again, as I mentioned before,

0:24:02.200 --> 0:24:04.280
<v Speaker 1>you really have to think about the refinancing costs. You know,

0:24:04.280 --> 0:24:07.080
<v Speaker 1>the average refight can be five thousand dollars at least,

0:24:07.720 --> 0:24:09.840
<v Speaker 1>so that's a lot of money, and you really then

0:24:09.920 --> 0:24:12.720
<v Speaker 1>want to bake that into your overall calculation and be

0:24:12.760 --> 0:24:14.639
<v Speaker 1>thinking about how long you're going to be staying in

0:24:14.640 --> 0:24:16.960
<v Speaker 1>the house for and will it justify the amount that

0:24:17.000 --> 0:24:19.560
<v Speaker 1>you're saving month to month. Okay, let's let's find a

0:24:19.560 --> 0:24:23.959
<v Speaker 1>little happy here. Are lenders willing to work with you?

0:24:24.119 --> 0:24:28.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, should people be working with them to figure

0:24:28.240 --> 0:24:31.680
<v Speaker 1>out those refinancing costs? Are are they able to work

0:24:31.680 --> 0:24:34.320
<v Speaker 1>with borrowers? Do they have any wiggle rim right, No,

0:24:34.440 --> 0:24:37.240
<v Speaker 1>that's a great question. I would point out there was

0:24:37.280 --> 0:24:39.280
<v Speaker 1>a Freddie mac study not too long ago shown that

0:24:39.520 --> 0:24:42.120
<v Speaker 1>lenders not just when it comes to refinancing, but overall.

0:24:42.920 --> 0:24:46.120
<v Speaker 1>Freddie is seeing the biggest disparity among mortgage lenders when

0:24:46.160 --> 0:24:48.720
<v Speaker 1>it comes to rates that you know, it really pay.

0:24:48.800 --> 0:24:51.080
<v Speaker 1>It always pays to shop around, but it especially pays

0:24:51.119 --> 0:24:53.479
<v Speaker 1>to shop around right now as rates are creeping up

0:24:53.520 --> 0:24:56.040
<v Speaker 1>and up and up. That depending on perhaps if you

0:24:56.080 --> 0:24:58.119
<v Speaker 1>have a pre existing relationship with the bank, if you

0:24:58.160 --> 0:25:00.480
<v Speaker 1>have a sizeable amount of money in an account, you know,

0:25:00.560 --> 0:25:02.399
<v Speaker 1>these are things that could help you and make a

0:25:02.480 --> 0:25:06.800
<v Speaker 1>lender more willing to work with you on the refinancing front. Specifically,

0:25:07.080 --> 0:25:10.359
<v Speaker 1>we have seen a handful of online lenders and smaller

0:25:10.359 --> 0:25:13.600
<v Speaker 1>credit unions that are offering to pay for some or

0:25:13.640 --> 0:25:17.040
<v Speaker 1>all refinancing costs if rates drop within a specified period

0:25:17.080 --> 0:25:19.080
<v Speaker 1>of time. But you might not want to bank on

0:25:19.119 --> 0:25:21.560
<v Speaker 1>that because who knows again where rates are headed, and

0:25:21.600 --> 0:25:24.159
<v Speaker 1>there's so many factors having to do with inflation and

0:25:24.200 --> 0:25:27.560
<v Speaker 1>recession and geopolitical risk that because of those things, you

0:25:27.640 --> 0:25:30.440
<v Speaker 1>don't want to rush to refinance. Assume that this lender

0:25:30.480 --> 0:25:33.800
<v Speaker 1>is going to recoup those fees or compensate you for

0:25:33.840 --> 0:25:36.400
<v Speaker 1>those fees, and then we don't see that drop within

0:25:36.480 --> 0:25:39.439
<v Speaker 1>that specified period of time. Do you find there's a

0:25:39.480 --> 0:25:44.639
<v Speaker 1>difference between a first time home buyer versus somebody who

0:25:44.760 --> 0:25:48.879
<v Speaker 1>has a home to sell. Yeah, that's such a great question. Definitely,

0:25:48.880 --> 0:25:50.919
<v Speaker 1>because a first time HomeBuyer they have to come up

0:25:50.920 --> 0:25:54.000
<v Speaker 1>with that down payment. Someone who's sold is someone who's

0:25:54.000 --> 0:25:56.520
<v Speaker 1>already a homeowner is lucky enough probably to be sitting

0:25:56.560 --> 0:25:59.080
<v Speaker 1>on home equity and as a result, they've seen, you know,

0:25:59.200 --> 0:26:01.760
<v Speaker 1>the run up in home prices, so they're going to

0:26:01.800 --> 0:26:05.120
<v Speaker 1>have this additional cushion. But you raise a great point

0:26:05.119 --> 0:26:07.080
<v Speaker 1>that the other thing people have to be really careful

0:26:07.080 --> 0:26:10.280
<v Speaker 1>about what this assumption about refinancing is if you refinance,

0:26:10.320 --> 0:26:13.080
<v Speaker 1>you have to have Typically lenders require twenty percent equity

0:26:13.080 --> 0:26:15.280
<v Speaker 1>in your home. If you're a first time HomeBuyer and

0:26:15.320 --> 0:26:17.919
<v Speaker 1>you're making a smaller down payment of say, you know,

0:26:18.000 --> 0:26:21.200
<v Speaker 1>seven percent, ten percent, much less than twenty percent. And

0:26:21.359 --> 0:26:24.560
<v Speaker 1>we've seen home prices that increase, decelerate, slow down, and

0:26:24.560 --> 0:26:27.679
<v Speaker 1>in some markets even decrease. You shouldn't be banking on

0:26:27.760 --> 0:26:29.800
<v Speaker 1>getting to that equity within a year or so if

0:26:29.840 --> 0:26:32.200
<v Speaker 1>that was you know, your ultimate goal or refi, because

0:26:32.240 --> 0:26:34.199
<v Speaker 1>you might not be hitting that twenty percent equity in

0:26:34.200 --> 0:26:37.200
<v Speaker 1>your home. I see. So let me ask a bit

0:26:37.240 --> 0:26:41.399
<v Speaker 1>of a different question, not just about home buyers, but

0:26:41.520 --> 0:26:44.280
<v Speaker 1>home builders. Is it a whole different ball game if

0:26:44.280 --> 0:26:48.040
<v Speaker 1>you're talking about you own a lot but you want

0:26:48.040 --> 0:26:50.800
<v Speaker 1>to build on that lot. Is that a whole completely

0:26:50.840 --> 0:26:54.520
<v Speaker 1>different class. Yeah, I think it's a totally different class.

0:26:54.760 --> 0:26:57.600
<v Speaker 1>The thoughts about refinancing are obviously different. Even I had

0:26:57.600 --> 0:26:59.960
<v Speaker 1>written a piece recently about mortgage locks in this idea

0:27:00.280 --> 0:27:02.680
<v Speaker 1>that you shouldn't rush to or pay extra to be

0:27:02.760 --> 0:27:06.080
<v Speaker 1>locking in a mortgage rate for longer. But that advice

0:27:06.200 --> 0:27:08.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of changes. If you are doing like you're buying

0:27:08.160 --> 0:27:10.600
<v Speaker 1>a foreclosed home or it's a new lot in construction,

0:27:10.600 --> 0:27:13.119
<v Speaker 1>and you're anticipating things to take longer, then maybe you

0:27:13.160 --> 0:27:15.000
<v Speaker 1>do want to go aheadlock in that rate because it's

0:27:15.040 --> 0:27:17.639
<v Speaker 1>going to be a different kind of time horizon than

0:27:17.640 --> 0:27:19.520
<v Speaker 1>if you're just buying, you know, a pre existing home.

0:27:19.760 --> 0:27:21.800
<v Speaker 1>And it's so hard to wrap your head around the

0:27:21.880 --> 0:27:26.359
<v Speaker 1>idea that, oh, my goodness, rates aren't going down anytime soon.

0:27:27.160 --> 0:27:30.679
<v Speaker 1>People of a certain age are not used to that concept.

0:27:31.080 --> 0:27:33.320
<v Speaker 1>I know, it's really foreign. And then for others who

0:27:33.440 --> 0:27:35.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, are older and we're around or buying homes

0:27:35.960 --> 0:27:38.200
<v Speaker 1>in the eighties, for them, it's like, yes, seventeen percent

0:27:38.200 --> 0:27:40.520
<v Speaker 1>mortgage rates, that's the norm. So it really depends what

0:27:40.560 --> 0:27:43.040
<v Speaker 1>your frame of references. And you know, when you first

0:27:43.080 --> 0:27:46.320
<v Speaker 1>started becoming a homeowner, you know that can help with

0:27:46.320 --> 0:27:49.520
<v Speaker 1>your perspective for sure. Okay, so what's the guidance, what

0:27:49.560 --> 0:27:51.400
<v Speaker 1>do we do? Do we do a fifteen year mortgage

0:27:51.400 --> 0:27:53.879
<v Speaker 1>a thirty year fixed What should people be watching for

0:27:54.000 --> 0:27:56.439
<v Speaker 1>in their mortgage rates? Sure? I mean it really depends

0:27:56.480 --> 0:27:58.320
<v Speaker 1>on what you're looking for and obviously what your monthly

0:27:58.320 --> 0:28:01.200
<v Speaker 1>flow and you know what kind of a forward payment wise,

0:28:01.520 --> 0:28:04.160
<v Speaker 1>if you're going to REFI, a fifteen year mortgage isn't

0:28:04.160 --> 0:28:06.119
<v Speaker 1>a bad idea if you feel like you have the

0:28:06.160 --> 0:28:09.040
<v Speaker 1>cash flow to handle a bigger mortgage monthly payment. But

0:28:09.160 --> 0:28:11.480
<v Speaker 1>ultimately then you will be paying less in interest because

0:28:11.480 --> 0:28:13.359
<v Speaker 1>obviously you have a shorter loan, but you will have

0:28:13.400 --> 0:28:15.640
<v Speaker 1>a big uptick in what you're paying month to month.

0:28:16.080 --> 0:28:18.040
<v Speaker 1>So really, again depends on what your cash flow is

0:28:18.200 --> 0:28:21.000
<v Speaker 1>and your outlook. But yeah, if you do REFI certainly

0:28:21.040 --> 0:28:23.520
<v Speaker 1>considering a fifteen year mortgage. If you can handle that payment,

0:28:23.560 --> 0:28:26.200
<v Speaker 1>is well worth it. Alexis, what are you going to

0:28:26.280 --> 0:28:29.360
<v Speaker 1>be watching for in the next few weeks. I think

0:28:29.359 --> 0:28:31.920
<v Speaker 1>we should really be watching to see, you know, what's

0:28:31.920 --> 0:28:34.080
<v Speaker 1>going to happen with rates. As you mentioned before, I

0:28:34.080 --> 0:28:36.800
<v Speaker 1>think to expect that rates are going to come down,

0:28:37.160 --> 0:28:40.560
<v Speaker 1>I just think that that seems to be unrealistic at

0:28:40.560 --> 0:28:42.960
<v Speaker 1>this point in time. I think we're going to see

0:28:43.160 --> 0:28:45.880
<v Speaker 1>mortgage rates heading at least where they are or edging

0:28:45.960 --> 0:28:48.560
<v Speaker 1>higher and higher. So that's why you just really shouldn't

0:28:48.560 --> 0:28:51.240
<v Speaker 1>be banking on a quick REFI to get to that

0:28:51.280 --> 0:28:53.440
<v Speaker 1>lower rate that we had seen for so many years

0:28:53.440 --> 0:28:56.600
<v Speaker 1>after the Great Recession. It's so interesting that during the

0:28:56.600 --> 0:29:00.440
<v Speaker 1>pandemic everybody wanted to add onto their homes and finance

0:29:00.480 --> 0:29:03.880
<v Speaker 1>their homes and do some reconstruction on their homes, and

0:29:04.080 --> 0:29:06.400
<v Speaker 1>all of those prices are just going up so much

0:29:06.480 --> 0:29:09.520
<v Speaker 1>higher now. Yeah, to do anything to your home, it

0:29:09.560 --> 0:29:11.320
<v Speaker 1>just feels like it's so much more expensive, whether you

0:29:11.360 --> 0:29:13.760
<v Speaker 1>want to buy, you want to renovate, you want to

0:29:13.840 --> 0:29:16.120
<v Speaker 1>borrow against it, whatever it is, it's just become a

0:29:16.160 --> 0:29:20.040
<v Speaker 1>more costly thing for families all across the country. Okay, well,

0:29:20.080 --> 0:29:22.560
<v Speaker 1>just hang in there. Thank you so much, Alexis, Thank

0:29:22.560 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 1>you for having me. Alexis Leandis is a Bloomberg opinion columnist.

0:29:26.560 --> 0:29:29.720
<v Speaker 1>She covers personal finance for Bloomberg. Now, if you want

0:29:29.760 --> 0:29:32.360
<v Speaker 1>to know more about the health of the earth, just

0:29:32.480 --> 0:29:35.520
<v Speaker 1>turn your attention to the ocean. Laura Williams is a

0:29:35.560 --> 0:29:40.200
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg opinion columnist covering climate change, and she joins us, Now,

0:29:40.920 --> 0:29:44.920
<v Speaker 1>let's set the stage in your column on the Bloomberg terminal.

0:29:45.040 --> 0:29:48.160
<v Speaker 1>You talk about how billions of people depend on the

0:29:48.200 --> 0:29:53.200
<v Speaker 1>ocean for food and economic security. Just get into that

0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:56.280
<v Speaker 1>just a little bit so people understand just the incredible

0:29:56.320 --> 0:30:01.200
<v Speaker 1>impact that you've been able to witness working on this research. Yeah. Sure,

0:30:01.360 --> 0:30:06.840
<v Speaker 1>So an estimated three billion people rely on the ocean directly,

0:30:07.160 --> 0:30:09.480
<v Speaker 1>so that should be you know, their main source of

0:30:09.480 --> 0:30:13.560
<v Speaker 1>protein or as a source of income from fishing. But

0:30:13.640 --> 0:30:17.480
<v Speaker 1>in many ways, like everybody on the planet Earth relies

0:30:17.520 --> 0:30:21.560
<v Speaker 1>on the ocean because the currents help control our weather.

0:30:21.960 --> 0:30:26.160
<v Speaker 1>The Gulf Stream, which is you know, helped along by

0:30:26.240 --> 0:30:28.800
<v Speaker 1>the ocean. It's like paused by the ocean that stops

0:30:29.000 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 1>Europe from freezing over. So the ocean is really important

0:30:32.960 --> 0:30:36.040
<v Speaker 1>for everyone. So your column makes the argument that the

0:30:36.080 --> 0:30:39.640
<v Speaker 1>ocean not only really important for climate but has helped

0:30:39.680 --> 0:30:44.120
<v Speaker 1>mitigate climate change. It walk me through that. Yeah, So

0:30:44.240 --> 0:30:48.120
<v Speaker 1>the ocean is actually the world's largest carbon sink. So

0:30:48.240 --> 0:30:52.080
<v Speaker 1>it's absorbs about ninety percent of the heat trapped by

0:30:52.960 --> 0:30:57.720
<v Speaker 1>greenhouse stasses so far and also absorbed about thirty percent

0:30:57.760 --> 0:31:01.320
<v Speaker 1>of the CO two that we've emitted through fossil fuels.

0:31:01.440 --> 0:31:06.440
<v Speaker 1>So without the ocean and healthy ocean eco systems, we'd

0:31:06.440 --> 0:31:09.640
<v Speaker 1>be in a much stickier situation in return in response

0:31:09.640 --> 0:31:11.760
<v Speaker 1>to the climate crisis. So how is the ocean then

0:31:11.840 --> 0:31:14.800
<v Speaker 1>suffering from our actions and what we do on a

0:31:14.880 --> 0:31:18.640
<v Speaker 1>day to day basis sure? So, I mean humankind, We've

0:31:18.640 --> 0:31:22.800
<v Speaker 1>been polluting our oceans with everybody's aware of the plastic problem.

0:31:22.920 --> 0:31:26.320
<v Speaker 1>We've oil and sewage ends up in the ocean as well.

0:31:26.640 --> 0:31:31.600
<v Speaker 1>We've also be in harvesting fish stots to depletion, destroying

0:31:31.840 --> 0:31:36.080
<v Speaker 1>marine habitats with troll nets and deep sea mining. We've

0:31:36.080 --> 0:31:38.520
<v Speaker 1>got loads of shipping vessels going across the ocean and

0:31:38.560 --> 0:31:41.680
<v Speaker 1>that causes a lot of vibration which interferes with marine

0:31:41.720 --> 0:31:47.320
<v Speaker 1>mammals and sometimes like stripes, turtles and whales and all

0:31:47.320 --> 0:31:50.640
<v Speaker 1>those sorts of creatures. And we can really see the

0:31:50.720 --> 0:31:53.680
<v Speaker 1>impact of that and the statistic so ten percent of

0:31:53.720 --> 0:31:57.960
<v Speaker 1>marine species are at risk of extinction and a third

0:31:58.000 --> 0:32:00.960
<v Speaker 1>of fish stocks are over fished, and that means reattaching

0:32:01.040 --> 0:32:05.240
<v Speaker 1>them faster than they're able to replenish themselves. And as

0:32:05.240 --> 0:32:09.720
<v Speaker 1>the water absorbs CO two and heat, obviously it's getting hotter.

0:32:09.760 --> 0:32:12.000
<v Speaker 1>There are now heat waves in the ocean, which is

0:32:12.160 --> 0:32:15.280
<v Speaker 1>kind of crazy to think about. And it's also becoming

0:32:15.320 --> 0:32:19.040
<v Speaker 1>more acidic and that reachs havoc on animals that like,

0:32:19.240 --> 0:32:23.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, coral and shellfish. Now there are moves to

0:32:23.120 --> 0:32:26.360
<v Speaker 1>help protect the ocean, and you itemize these in your

0:32:26.360 --> 0:32:29.440
<v Speaker 1>column on the Bloomberg terminal. What will this do? Tell

0:32:29.480 --> 0:32:34.520
<v Speaker 1>me about those moves? Yeah, So recently the UN finally

0:32:34.560 --> 0:32:37.440
<v Speaker 1>agreed on the text of what's being called the High

0:32:37.520 --> 0:32:41.280
<v Speaker 1>Seas Treaty, and this will enable, once it's been enacted,

0:32:42.320 --> 0:32:47.960
<v Speaker 1>nations to set up protected areas in international waters. And

0:32:48.000 --> 0:32:51.080
<v Speaker 1>so international waters are you know, anywhere that's not in

0:32:51.160 --> 0:32:54.320
<v Speaker 1>the national jurisdiction. And it covers you know, two thirds

0:32:54.520 --> 0:32:59.000
<v Speaker 1>of the ocean and ninety five percent of the Earth's

0:32:59.000 --> 0:33:03.240
<v Speaker 1>habitable environment by volume, So it's massive, and it previously

0:33:03.280 --> 0:33:06.040
<v Speaker 1>had no protections. Okay, so then what are you watching for?

0:33:06.240 --> 0:33:09.680
<v Speaker 1>What comes next? What can we expect or can we

0:33:10.400 --> 0:33:13.680
<v Speaker 1>So this bill is in the process of being translated

0:33:13.800 --> 0:33:17.640
<v Speaker 1>into the six official UN languages. Then it will need

0:33:17.680 --> 0:33:22.160
<v Speaker 1>to be signed and ratified, and once it's being leadally

0:33:22.160 --> 0:33:25.800
<v Speaker 1>adopted by sixty UN nations, it will go into force

0:33:26.200 --> 0:33:28.720
<v Speaker 1>and then the real work will ben because it doesn't

0:33:28.720 --> 0:33:32.880
<v Speaker 1>automatically put any areas under protection that are already some

0:33:32.960 --> 0:33:35.600
<v Speaker 1>proposals for areas. But we'll then have to see sort

0:33:35.640 --> 0:33:38.840
<v Speaker 1>of the taste being made for certain areas being set

0:33:38.920 --> 0:33:42.160
<v Speaker 1>up for protection. And then also I will be interested

0:33:42.200 --> 0:33:46.160
<v Speaker 1>in watching how strong the levels of protection are, because

0:33:46.160 --> 0:33:49.840
<v Speaker 1>that's something that hasn't yet been decided. Bloomberg's Lara Williams,

0:33:49.880 --> 0:33:52.680
<v Speaker 1>thank you for your time, Thank you, and that does

0:33:52.720 --> 0:33:55.600
<v Speaker 1>it for this week's Bloomberg Opinion. We are produced by

0:33:55.720 --> 0:34:00.160
<v Speaker 1>Eric Mallow. Don't forget We're available as a podcast on Apple, Spotify,

0:34:00.200 --> 0:34:03.680
<v Speaker 1>or your favorite podcast platform. Stay with us. Today's top

0:34:03.720 --> 0:34:06.880
<v Speaker 1>stories and global business headlines are coming up right now