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Speaker 3: Welcome.
Speaker 2: In episode one seventeen, What's Right with Nick Wright, our
Speaker 2: wild card weekend gambling show, the weekend that we reset
Speaker 2: the record back to zero, we look back on how
Speaker 2: we did, and first we must recap week eighteen, where
Speaker 2: you know, sometimes I've got to say demanse I even
Speaker 2: impressed myself. The goal, as always is to be profitable.
Speaker 2: The underlying goal is always to not make this whole
Speaker 2: thing look ridiculous. And going into the final week of
Speaker 2: the season, we were six games under five hundred, and
Speaker 2: we had a chance of looking ridiculous, and so you know,
Speaker 2: I took a big risk. I went against a lot
Speaker 2: of my principles, and we said we're going to bet
Speaker 2: every game on the board, with the caveat of the
Speaker 2: Bills and the Bengals because when we were recording last
Speaker 2: week's show, we didn't yet know if they were going
Speaker 2: to be replaying their game. We did, so we left
Speaker 2: that out. So we had fourteen games, so we needed
Speaker 2: to go ten and four to finish at five hundred.
Speaker 2: We needed to go eleven and three, seventy eight percent
Speaker 2: against the spread. Almost impossible to finish above five hundred.
Speaker 2: Blue Duck Media team who produces this podcast and YouTube show,
Speaker 2: show us last week's results, ten and four. All that's
Speaker 2: eleven and three. Oh my goodness, gracious, that's the first
Speaker 2: seven games. That's six and one. We can go through them.
Speaker 2: Kansasity might have sign and have at Vegas. Never at
Speaker 2: out Atlanta minus four against Tampa. That one. Confused Old
Speaker 2: Demonse came down the next morning. He was like, I
Speaker 2: don't get this line at all. I was like, eh,
Speaker 2: I don't think Tampa's gonna play their starters that long.
Speaker 2: Tampa jumped out seven to nothing. It's like, I don't
Speaker 2: worry about it. Took the starters out Atlanta covers Miami.
Speaker 2: We got them plus one against the Jets. That line
Speaker 2: moved all the way to miamiree three and a half,
Speaker 2: but that would have covered anyway thanks to a safety
Speaker 2: on the final play of the game. If you had
Speaker 2: the Jets plus three and a half, Oh my goodness, gracious,
Speaker 2: Jacksonville minus six against Tennessee didn't cover Minnesota minus seven
Speaker 2: and a half against Chicago. We told you Chicago was
Speaker 2: trying to win. Get the number one pick is how
Speaker 2: could they? How could they compete Carolina plus three and
Speaker 2: a half against New Orleans. I honestly don't know who
Speaker 2: won that game. I just know it was ten to seven,
Speaker 2: and no the Carolina one Donald was terrible. They won anyway,
Speaker 2: ten to seven. Donald's quarterback rating in that game was
Speaker 2: two point eight two point eight, and they won. For
Speaker 2: the record, I like to remind people of this, you
Speaker 2: get a quarterback rating of thirty nine point six for
Speaker 2: spiking the football. His was two point eight. Pittsburgh minus
Speaker 2: two and a half against Cleveland. We knew Tomlin in
Speaker 2: a must win situation against the Browns, he was gonna
Speaker 2: show up. So that's six and one. Show us the
Speaker 2: next seven picks. If you would please. Indy minus two
Speaker 2: and a half against Houston. That's a loser. That's a
Speaker 2: loser because they converted a fourth and twelve and then
Speaker 2: a fourth and twenty to get in the end zone,
Speaker 2: or that would have been a winner. Giants plus fourteen
Speaker 2: against Philly. They lost by six on side kick at
Speaker 2: the end of the game. Where the lose bys eight,
Speaker 2: I'm not sure six eight, seven, doesn't matter. They covered
Speaker 2: Dallas minus seven and a half against Washington. We were
Speaker 2: on the wrong side of that one. That was a laugher.
Speaker 2: Who's twenty six to six Washington? They covered by twenty
Speaker 2: seven and a half points. Doesn't matter. Just one loss.
Speaker 2: Denver minus two and a half against the Chargers. How
Speaker 2: right were we about this one? We said, we think
Speaker 2: Denver can win outright because the Chargers are gonna play
Speaker 2: their backups. The Chargers because there are a bunch of dopes,
Speaker 2: played their starters almost the whole way. Denver won out
Speaker 2: right anyway. San Francisco minus fourteen against Arizona. We said
Speaker 2: they're gonna annihilate the Cardinals. First play of the game,
Speaker 2: Cardinals trick play touchdown. Oh my god, they're up seven
Speaker 2: to nothing. Doesn't matter. They rolled them Rams plus six
Speaker 2: and a half against Seattle. That game goes to overtime,
Speaker 2: Detroit plus five and a half against Screen Bay they
Speaker 2: win outright. That puts our record on the year to
Speaker 2: fifty forty eight and two. Now, because we're fair on this,
Speaker 2: was that profitable not when you incorporate the VIG right,
Speaker 2: we would have won fifty units, we would have lost.
Speaker 2: Let me do the mask the year fifty two point
Speaker 2: eight units because you got to do the ten percent
Speaker 2: on your losses. So down two point eight units technically
Speaker 2: with the VIG but given the fact that we bet
Speaker 2: these things on Thursday, we don't have full information, finishing
Speaker 2: about five hundred is sensational. One last thing is we're
Speaker 2: about to get to our season wraps and then we'll
Speaker 2: get to the shows. I've got a because to be fair,
Speaker 2: we had been updating this throughout the year, and I'll
Speaker 2: do it much more quickly this time. Go through our
Speaker 2: preseason bets. Baltimore we had over ten and a half.
Speaker 2: They finished at ten. That's a shame. The Lamar injury
Speaker 2: really hurt us. So that's a loss. Indy over nine
Speaker 2: and a half, not even close. That's a loss Jacksonville
Speaker 2: over six and a half winner, Kansas City over ten
Speaker 2: and a half winner, New England under eight and a half. Oh,
Speaker 2: they came through in the end for US in a
Speaker 2: big way winner Giants under seven and a half loser,
Speaker 2: so we're three and three. San Francisco over nine and
Speaker 2: a half strong over winner by a mile. Tampa Bay.
Speaker 2: Our single favorite bet of the year was the Tampa
Speaker 2: Bay under eleven and a half. They won eight games,
Speaker 2: so that's five and three in our preseason win total bets.
Speaker 2: We feel good about that. Make miss playoff bets Cleveland
Speaker 2: miss Playoffs winner, Denver miss Playoffs winner, New England MISSUS
Speaker 2: Playoffs winner. Denver was plus money. Cleveland, New England were
Speaker 2: minus money. Our two make miss playoffs parlays, we were
Speaker 2: close on this one. Minus one oh five was the
Speaker 2: action on New England, Atlanta, the Jets, and Seattle to
Speaker 2: miss the playoffs. Seattle got in, so that's a loser.
Speaker 2: Kansas City, Baltimore, Indie, and San Francisco to all make
Speaker 2: the playoffs. That was plus four forty. That's a loser.
Speaker 2: So we on the make miss playoff bets, we had
Speaker 2: two losers, three winners. That's profitable, and by our season
Speaker 2: long bet Kansas City and San Francisco to be in
Speaker 2: the super Bowl. At fifty to one, it's still a lot.
Speaker 2: So five and three in season win totals profitable, three
Speaker 2: and two and make miss playoff bets profitable, very profitable
Speaker 2: because we had plus money on a couple of them.
Speaker 2: And we'll see in the fifty to one. So our
Speaker 2: preseason bets were profitable. Our regular season finished above five
Speaker 2: hundred and now demans, sorry that you haven't been able
Speaker 2: to talk yet, but I'm so excited before we get
Speaker 2: to these picks. What are we doing here?
Speaker 3: Eleven and three? So, like how Spotify has this like
Speaker 3: wrap thing where it does little recap.
Speaker 2: Yeah, subscribe to this pot on Spotify and iTunes and everywhere.
Speaker 2: Go ahead.
Speaker 3: Yeah, they did a little seasonal recap for you, a
Speaker 3: little rap version by the producer in La let me see.
Speaker 3: Uh So, first off, we've got to know for showing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for showing it right there.
Speaker 3: Phographics all right, So best picks. We got Divisional Games
Speaker 3: twenty seven two. Oh, hold on, let's let's let's let's kill.
Speaker 2: Marinate in this because this is you know why that
Speaker 2: Divisional Games twenty seven and twelve means something to me.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about this playoff weekend for just a moment.
Speaker 2: Miami Buffalo is a divisional game, Cincinnati Baltimore is a
Speaker 2: divisional game. Seattle San Francisco is a divisional game. So
Speaker 2: three of our six games this weekend our divisional games.
Speaker 2: And twenty seven and twelve what's that? Twenty times two
Speaker 2: point five? So fifty four? So we're at sixty nine
Speaker 2: percent against the spread and divisional games. I did that,
Speaker 2: MATHO was like, Patrick Mahomes, what's that? Oh, it's completion percentage?
Speaker 2: What do you mean?
Speaker 3: Actually, guess Patrick Mahomes is a little bit higher.
Speaker 2: No, sixty nine percent almost exactly right. What's twenty seven
Speaker 2: over the division?
Speaker 4: Oh?
Speaker 2: My god, that's the what percentage is that? DeMont? Sixty
Speaker 2: nine point two?
Speaker 3: Got that?
Speaker 2: I like when I do stuff like that. Twenty seven
Speaker 2: and twelve, six nine percent? What's next?
Speaker 3: So next we got road dogs twenty five fourteen and one.
Speaker 2: So road dogs again, we can do sixty two and
Speaker 2: a half percent against the spread twenty five plus fourteen
Speaker 2: plus one sport. Yeah, sixty two and a half percent,
Speaker 2: all right, so road dogs we like? Yeah, divisional games
Speaker 2: we like keep that in mind for our six picks. That,
Speaker 2: by the way, I should have said, is the top
Speaker 2: of the show. We're picking every playoff game. We have
Speaker 2: a lifelong dream of going undefeated in the playoffs. They
Speaker 2: made it harder. You still only have to get eleven games,
Speaker 2: right now, you have to get thirteen games, right because
Speaker 2: they added the teams. By the way, fun fact for
Speaker 2: anybody out there, no matter the format, Uh, any single
Speaker 2: elimination tournament, I don't care if it's the NCAA tournament,
Speaker 2: I don't care it's the playoffs, any single elimination tournament.
Speaker 2: Now you can quickly figure out how many games are
Speaker 2: going to be played in the whole tournament. However many
Speaker 2: teams are in it minus one, because everybody's got to
Speaker 2: lose at least once except for the champion. So a
Speaker 2: sixty eight team in Cuba Field, you know how many
Speaker 2: games there are? Sixty seven? A fourteen team NFL playoffs,
Speaker 2: any games there are thirteen? All right, go ahead, next
Speaker 2: fading victor undefeated. Oh that's unfair, Vic rallied VIC was
Speaker 2: you know? Yeah, show Vic, it's unfair. I wouldn't let
Speaker 2: them put that on there. You had a you you
Speaker 2: know you were I think you were sandbagging us vic
Speaker 2: Vic's you know, first weekend, I think it was zero
Speaker 2: for five, but then he rallied, so that's no problem,
Speaker 2: all right.
Speaker 3: Next the same game parlay plus thirty two K.
Speaker 2: That was the highlight of the gambling season. Yeah, and
Speaker 2: and that moment sharing that bet with you in your
Speaker 2: reaction huge bet. Yeah, the I mean that's exactly what
Speaker 2: it was.
Speaker 3: It was.
Speaker 2: It was eight hundred bucks of forty to one, all right.
Speaker 3: Next betting NFC East teams, you were nine and two.
Speaker 2: All right. So those are my top picks. I feel
Speaker 2: like the opposite's coming on the old Spotify raft ripoff
Speaker 2: we're doing here, what's next?
Speaker 3: Worst picks coming in at number one is one in
Speaker 3: seven versus the Jags.
Speaker 2: Well, so here's the thing. Here's the question that I
Speaker 2: would have here and the well one and seven involving
Speaker 2: the Jags, And I don't know about this crying the
Speaker 2: graphic they have of me. Yes, I was bad picking
Speaker 2: the Jags singularly, but overall, I think I'm the rightest
Speaker 2: man in America about the Jacks. Before the year, I
Speaker 2: said they could win the division. I bet them to
Speaker 2: make the playoffs, and I bet them to win nine games.
Speaker 2: That's right, right, all along?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 2: What's next?
Speaker 3: Why?
Speaker 2: Okay, shut up? Yeah, you know what I've decided, by
Speaker 2: the way, I'm not doing that anymore. I'm not doing anymore.
Speaker 2: It's like picking your amongst your chouldren, like you have
Speaker 2: to pick a favorite, You're gonna get it wrong. All
Speaker 2: my picks are I love them all. I was bad
Speaker 2: on my locks on TV, I was bad on the
Speaker 2: right move on this podcast. They're all the picks are
Speaker 2: equal value to me. I'm not doing that anymore. Next.
Speaker 3: Okay, twelve and eighteen for home favorites. Okay, twenty twenty
Speaker 3: eight and two in early windows.
Speaker 2: All right, I don't you know what that that's meaningless
Speaker 2: to the early window thing. I just think that's random.
Speaker 2: If I'm twenty twenty eight and two in early windows
Speaker 2: and I finished the year forty forty eight and two overall,
Speaker 2: I guess that means I'm thirty and twenty in the
Speaker 2: non one o'clock window, which is I guess maybe noteworthy,
Speaker 2: but I'm not sure. And what is this final bullet point?
Speaker 3: Wait, eighteen and ten in the late window.
Speaker 2: Oh no, confusing, No, no, no, because I finished, I'd
Speaker 2: be twenty twenty eight and two in the early games
Speaker 2: and oh, copy so what I'm saying, So that would
Speaker 2: be thirty and twenty in the late games.
Speaker 3: You know, honestly, guys, I thought when we put early
Speaker 3: windows we were talking about like games where we bet
Speaker 3: early in the line of value increased or something.
Speaker 2: Oh no, no, I think they mean the one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, oh and seventeen when claiming it smells it's
Speaker 3: not that funny. Oh in seventeen when claiming it smells
Speaker 3: like five and oh, that is that funny.
Speaker 2: It's not that funny.
Speaker 3: That's freaking hilarious.
Speaker 2: It's not that funny. I didn't have any five and
Speaker 2: oh weeks. Okay, this was not the but you know what,
Speaker 2: maybe that means I'm having six in a week this week.
Speaker 2: That's first of all. Second of all, I had no
Speaker 2: oh in five weeks. They just cancel each other out.
Speaker 2: Wait what, Yeah, I didn't have an O five, Matt,
Speaker 2: correct us if I'm wrong. There's no way I had.
Speaker 3: You had one and four?
Speaker 2: No, I had a couple. I think I might add
Speaker 2: two to one in fours.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 2: No, oh and five, oh and five? You gotta contemplate
Speaker 2: retirement with the If you flip a coin, the odds
Speaker 2: of getting it wrong five straight times is one in
Speaker 2: thirty two. I'm not going on five.
Speaker 3: Are we throwing shots at Vic right now?
Speaker 2: I told you Vic was sandbagging Vic. Vic was wanting
Speaker 2: us off his scent. He didn't want us to follow
Speaker 2: his bets. Vic. I'm with you. They're being rude to you,
Speaker 2: and I don't think it's nice. All right, we got
Speaker 2: more of these?
Speaker 3: Uh yeah? So we got clairvoyant here like Jacksonville better
Speaker 3: in London games one and.
Speaker 2: Oh oh, undefeated in London games. I like that, okay?
Speaker 3: And which one was it was? It was the Seattle game?
Speaker 2: No Seattle, No, that was Germany, okay, Oh, Seattle, London,
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay was Germany in Minnesota, New Orleans, London, Minnesota. Now,
Speaker 2: so I might have been two to zero betting in
Speaker 2: European games. I'm not sure.
Speaker 5: I know.
Speaker 2: I got Germany right one and oh in London, and
Speaker 2: you're in London. Go ahead, next.
Speaker 3: Five and one betting games involving Nathaniel Hackett.
Speaker 2: You gotta love that one, yeah, I mean I told
Speaker 2: you guys, we lost our opportunity. Now he's gone forever.
Speaker 2: But it was a wonderful I mean, it was a
Speaker 2: wonderful moment in time.
Speaker 3: Next uh for uh yeah, four and O betting on
Speaker 3: Tom Brady.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's okay, that's noteworthy because he's another one coming up. Yep,
Speaker 2: six oh to one. Beating on LA teams, betting betting
Speaker 2: on LA teams. Okay, all right, no noteworthy, all right,
Speaker 2: last one because I didn't realize how long we were
Speaker 2: going to go ahead.
Speaker 3: Blind spots betting on AFC cell teams two and twelve.
Speaker 2: A lot of that's the Jacks. A lot of that
Speaker 2: involves the Jacks, all right, go ahead betting against uh,
Speaker 2: betting against top against the spread teams. So the best
Speaker 2: teams against the spread this year were the Giants, the
Speaker 2: Bengals in Detroit, So that means their record against the spread. Yeah,
Speaker 2: they go ahead.
Speaker 3: Sorry, yeah, and I'm aware I was I heard something
Speaker 3: about the AFC selth in my ear.
Speaker 2: Okay, but yea chatting against against the best the spread, Yeah, sure,
Speaker 2: I'm owen ten. But Mike Tomlin's more historic, not so
Speaker 2: much this year.
Speaker 3: All right, go ahead, Uh you never uh you never
Speaker 3: took big spreads over seven. But we're seven to two.
Speaker 2: When you did see, I like that a lot because
Speaker 2: I think it's smart that I didn't regularly pick huge favorites.
Speaker 2: But when I did pick a huge favorite, it was
Speaker 2: because I zeroed in on it and liked it a lot,
Speaker 2: like San Francisco last week, all right, and then lastly.
Speaker 3: No bets on Buffalo all season.
Speaker 2: All right. That is a blind That is a blind spot.
Speaker 2: That's not so much a coward as much as it
Speaker 2: is I tend to root against Buffalo, and I put
Speaker 2: my rooting interest ahead of my monetary interest. I didn't
Speaker 2: want to be in a spot where I had to
Speaker 2: root for the Bills. So I do agree that is
Speaker 2: a blind spot. I don't think it's a cowardly to
Speaker 2: not bet on the Bills. I think it was purely
Speaker 2: that I knewst the Bills. I bet against the Bills
Speaker 2: a lot, which is the and they're uh, you know,
Speaker 2: and there they've been an excellent team this year. Okay,
Speaker 2: that's a great recap. It's a great job by our crew,
Speaker 2: and now we have good context for these picks. Well,
Speaker 2: we're gonna we're gonna give you the two Saturday games. First,
Speaker 2: first game of the week, San Francisco is laying nine
Speaker 2: and a half against Seattle. San Francisco is gonna win
Speaker 2: this game by at least fourteen points, likely by seventeen points.
Speaker 2: I will lay the nine and a half. Now, it
Speaker 2: should be noted prior to this season, Pete Carroll was
Speaker 2: eight and two against Shanahan. There's a weird thing in
Speaker 2: the NFC West where Shanahan owns McVeigh. McVeigh owns Carol,
Speaker 2: and Carol owned Shanahan, and then everybody owns the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: The Cardinals are just the odd man out there. But
Speaker 2: the Niners traditionally have beat up on the Rams. Since
Speaker 2: these coach have all been together, the Rams have beat
Speaker 2: up on Seattle, and Seattle's beat up on San Francis
Speaker 2: go this year. Seattle's zero to two against San Francisco.
Speaker 2: That is an incredibly young defense in Seattle San Francisco.
Speaker 2: While they have a young quarterback, they are so hard
Speaker 2: to defend because of how intricate and nuanced their run
Speaker 2: game is. Young defenders in particular are going to struggle
Speaker 2: against that Gino. As much as I appreciate what he's
Speaker 2: done this year, Gino didn't exactly finish the season with
Speaker 2: a flurry and Gino going against this San Francisco defense
Speaker 2: on the road I think is a recipe for disaster.
Speaker 2: I think Seattle. I mean, if you've listened to Pete
Speaker 2: Carrol all week, he just keeps calling the Niners juggernauts.
Speaker 2: You know, unfortunately we're playing them. They're so good. I
Speaker 2: know he's just saying that, he's saying something different to
Speaker 2: his team, but he also knows it's true. Seattle is
Speaker 2: in a spot where it's cool they made the playoffs.
Speaker 2: They probably would be going into the offseason with more
Speaker 2: momentum had Green Bay beaten Detroit, because then it's like, hey,
Speaker 2: we won our last game, we finished nine and eight.
Speaker 2: We and then you get to going on a high note.
Speaker 2: I think San Francisco absolutely rolls them. Also, I'm not
Speaker 2: sure I'm doing any teasers this weekend, but a seven
Speaker 2: point San Francisco teaser teasing them down to minus two
Speaker 2: and a half so you get them through the seven
Speaker 2: and the three feels like an absolute must tea. If
Speaker 2: you're going to tease this weekend, that is a must
Speaker 2: include leg to San Francisco minus two and a half.
Speaker 2: So I like the Niners laying a big number. I
Speaker 2: never lay big numbers. But as you said earlier, what
Speaker 2: did you say, I'm seven and two when laying a
Speaker 2: big number and I'm twenty seven and twelve in divisional games.
Speaker 2: This checks both those boxes.
Speaker 3: Go ahead. So first off, I got a little question,
Speaker 3: do you think do you think you know what it's
Speaker 3: gonna have above seventeen rushing yards? Since he's gonna be
Speaker 3: running around a lot of scarce. Thought about adding that
Speaker 3: in one of my parlays last night. Under I wanted
Speaker 3: to take the under.
Speaker 2: That's a tough one. I gotta tell you you've never
Speaker 2: I I don't have a strong feel on it. Gino's
Speaker 2: not all that fast. I would air to the side
Speaker 2: of the over there, but I would. I've given you
Speaker 2: terrible parlay advice this year. You've also never dealt with
Speaker 2: and this want to play here because Seattle's not gonna
Speaker 2: win the single worst part. Anytime you're doing a quarterback
Speaker 2: rushing prop you need to It is scary to do
Speaker 2: on a team you think is gonna win because the
Speaker 2: kneel downs at the end of the game count as
Speaker 2: negative rushing yards, and famously in the Super Bowl, well
Speaker 2: correct because they're not gonna but that's what I'm saying. Famously,
Speaker 2: in the Chiefs Niners Super Bowl, Mahomes hit his rushing
Speaker 2: over by seven yards and then at the end of
Speaker 2: the game took three knees, but they weren't regular knees
Speaker 2: because they needed to also burn like seven seconds, so
Speaker 2: he backed up three steps on each one and lost
Speaker 2: three yards three yards, three yards and went from over
Speaker 2: by seven to under by two in the Super Bowl,
Speaker 2: where that's a huge prop bet, and his ended up
Speaker 2: going under. So that the good thing on quarterback passing
Speaker 2: yards also averages five.
Speaker 3: And a half yards.
Speaker 2: Oh, that's about right. The the good thing about quarterback
Speaker 2: prop passing props is it's very, very hard to get
Speaker 2: negative passing yards. You can, you throw a screen pass,
Speaker 2: you get tackled for a loss, but you're not gonna
Speaker 2: go negative huge, right.
Speaker 3: Probably most of your net and it's like fifteen yards
Speaker 3: throughout a game if.
Speaker 2: That, if that, and you can't. They in college football
Speaker 2: sacks count against your passing yards, at least for team
Speaker 2: passing yards, so like so I don't know if they
Speaker 2: do for individual players, but if you get sacked for
Speaker 2: ten yards, it counts as negative ten passing yards. Uh,
Speaker 2: that doesn't happen in the NFL, all right, Uh, go ahead.
Speaker 2: San Francisco is on a ten game winning streak right now,
Speaker 2: and teams on a ten game ten game win streak
Speaker 2: are two thirteen against the spread in their first playoff game. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I get that. That usually means those teams are over
Speaker 2: valued because of the Brock Purty factor. I think the
Speaker 2: Niners are still undervalue. I think the people are still
Speaker 2: treating it like it's a rookie quarterback in his first
Speaker 2: playoff game. But that team is quarter back independent, so
Speaker 2: I'm not worried about that. All right. Next game, guys,
Speaker 2: it's the Jags in a playoff game at home, and
Speaker 2: I'm getting points. What the do you think I'm gonna
Speaker 2: do here? Jack? How dare you.
Speaker 3: Against the Jags?
Speaker 2: Plus two and a half against the Chargers. Mike Williams
Speaker 2: banged up for the Chargers because Staley's a dope, and
Speaker 2: played him in that whole game until he had to
Speaker 2: be carted off the field as back injury. He didn't
Speaker 2: practice Wednesday. We'll see if he practices Thursday. We're recording
Speaker 2: this before that's release. On the West Coast, they're at
Speaker 2: home Trevor. How about this for a fact? Is humble?
Speaker 2: You know how I always bring up Trevor's high school
Speaker 2: and college career. Yeah, all right, Tomanse. NFL games are
Speaker 2: on Sunday. Winter college football games typically what.
Speaker 3: Day of the weekly Saturday, Saturday.
Speaker 2: Trevor played three years of college football. In high school,
Speaker 2: playoff games are off and on Saturday. The regular season
Speaker 2: games in high school are on Friday.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say that he's used to playing on Saturday.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna say he's never lost on Saturday in
Speaker 2: his football career, high school, college, pro. Look it up, America.
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence undefeated on Saturdays. That's impressive for a guy
Speaker 2: played three years of big time college football. He went
Speaker 2: forty eight and two or thirty eight and two or something.
Speaker 2: In college. He only lost twice, and those two losses
Speaker 2: were in a playoff scenario where they were not being
Speaker 2: played on Saturday. Also, going back to college, Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 2: the year they won the national championship, had one bad
Speaker 2: game when he was a starter. That was the ACC
Speaker 2: championship game to get into the playoffs, and then don'll playoff.
Speaker 2: He was excellent. Jags, Titans it was not the ACC
Speaker 2: championship game. It was the de facto a FC South
Speaker 2: championship game. He didn't play that great, But now he's
Speaker 2: into the playoffs, he's gonna be awesome. Staley's gonna make
Speaker 2: some head scratching mistakes, the Jags getting points. They're gonna
Speaker 2: win out right. They're at home, Boocket, what's the problem?
Speaker 3: All right? So the problem is, I mean, you're obviously
Speaker 3: one and seven betting with the Jags, but okay, clearly
Speaker 3: you don't care about that when the Jags allow more
Speaker 3: than fourteen points. Though, Trevor Lawrence is six and twenty two.
Speaker 3: But I'm assuming since it's Saturday, this doesn't really matter.
Speaker 2: Well, no, it's not because it's Saturday. It's his thing.
Speaker 2: How could he be six and twenty two when this
Speaker 2: is his rookie year and they don't play twenty eight games?
Speaker 2: Uh so I'm not I'm not factoring in anything that
Speaker 2: happened last year. I will tell you something that happened
Speaker 2: this year. The Jags played the Chargers and the Jags
Speaker 2: won thirty eight to ten. Thirty eight to ten. The
Speaker 2: Jags are winning out right. Trevor is coming to Arrowhead
Speaker 2: with it. It's gonna be mahomes Trevor with a trip
Speaker 2: to the AFC Championship game on the line book. It
Speaker 2: that is happening, unless, of course, either the Bills or
Speaker 2: the Bengals get upset, then he won't get to come
Speaker 2: to Arrowhead because they receive. So I'm not worried.
Speaker 3: How are you feeling if Trevor Lawrence goes and beats
Speaker 3: the Chiefs?
Speaker 2: It's literally the only scenario where where the Chiefs win.
Speaker 2: I'm fine what people on television fans are gonna mock
Speaker 2: me because the guy that I am the biggest national
Speaker 2: advocate of beat my team. No, it's the only scenario
Speaker 2: where the Chiefs don't win the Super Bowl where I
Speaker 2: still win. So I'm fine with it. We got four
Speaker 2: more games to pick. We're gonna take a quick break,
Speaker 2: come right back. What's Right? Wild Card Weekend Gambling Show.
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Speaker 2: All right, welcome back. In episode one seventeen our wild
Speaker 2: Card weekend gambling show. We already gave you Jacks plus
Speaker 2: two and a half and the Niners minus nine and
Speaker 2: a half. All Right, we have two Sunday games that
Speaker 2: we don't as we record this Thursday morning, definitively know
Speaker 2: who the quarterback is. Okay, I obviously don't love that,
Speaker 2: but we're gonna keep doing these picks as scheduled and
Speaker 2: we'll deal with it. The first one is Miami at Buffalo.
Speaker 2: Miami is getting thirteen and a half points. I believe
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater is gonna play. If Sky Thompson plays, I'm bleeped. Okay,
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna flatly say it. If Teddy plays, this
Speaker 2: line will go back closer to eleven. Miami has played
Speaker 2: Buffalo incredibly close both times all year. It's the third
Speaker 2: matchup Miami has shown that they can deal with the cold,
Speaker 2: as they did when they almost Miami was up twenty
Speaker 2: nine to twenty one in that game a few weeks ago. Furthermore,
Speaker 2: I think it's now okay to say this. I hope
Speaker 2: it doesn't come across as two as insensitive. Now that
Speaker 2: we know Damar's healthy, I think he'll probably be at
Speaker 2: this game we can talk about. I think the actual
Speaker 2: impact of not having Deamar Hamlin the football player for
Speaker 2: a game like this so tomorrow was their backup safety
Speaker 2: stepped in valiantly for their all pro safety. Now they're
Speaker 2: on their third string safety against Tyreek Kill and Jalen Waddle. Furthermore,
Speaker 2: if a team can ever look somewhat unimpressive, scoring thirty
Speaker 2: five against the Patriots, I feel like that was Buffalo
Speaker 2: this weekend. In this one regard to Manse, they had
Speaker 2: two kick return touchdowns. They're only five in the league
Speaker 2: all year. They had two, So that's not happening again.
Speaker 2: It was a beautiful human and football moment. I don't
Speaker 2: think that's happening again. Mac Jones looked like a real
Speaker 2: quarterback against this Buffalo defense. Teddy is better than Mac Jones. Now.
Speaker 2: He also threw three picks. I am not picking Miami
Speaker 2: to win the football game, obviously. However, thirteen and a
Speaker 2: half points for a divisional rematch when Miami won one
Speaker 2: and had a fourth quarter lead in the second is
Speaker 2: way too many points. I am taking Miami plus thirteen
Speaker 2: and a half.
Speaker 3: So this bet actually hits two year blind spots, first
Speaker 3: of all, betting buffalo and betting on a big favorite.
Speaker 2: Okay, but also hits two of my strongest points, road dogs.
Speaker 2: I'm twenty five and fourteen divisional games. I'm twenty seven
Speaker 2: and twelve. There's a road dog in a divisional rematch.
Speaker 2: I just think thirteen and a half is too many points.
Speaker 2: I again, if Skyler Thompson is playing, this thing, probably
Speaker 2: is fourteen and a half, and I lose value on
Speaker 2: a point. I think Teddy's gonna play. I think Miami
Speaker 2: is going to at the very least be in it
Speaker 2: for a back door cover. They could be down twenty
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter and I could still be alive.
Speaker 2: I'll take the plus thirteen and a half.
Speaker 3: Double digit underdogs are three and eleven against the spread
Speaker 3: and playoffs since twenty eleven.
Speaker 2: Okay, okay, I'm taking Miami plus thirteen and a half.
Speaker 2: You're not talking me out of it. Minnesota minus three
Speaker 2: against the Giants. I think people have gone a touch.
Speaker 5: Too far on the Vikings in the negative way. Okay,
Speaker 5: so you wasn't a talk What do you mean, No,
Speaker 5: go ahead? I mean, I feel like you've never been
Speaker 5: very high on them.
Speaker 3: I'm not.
Speaker 2: I'm not high on the bike.
Speaker 3: Season, even when they were really rolling.
Speaker 2: Yeah, agreed. And I think because I have such a
Speaker 2: valuable trusted voice in the marketplace that my Vikings pessimism
Speaker 2: has infiltrated the marketplace, and now they're slightly undervalued. I
Speaker 2: think Minnesota in this spot should be a four point favorite.
Speaker 2: There are three point favorites. They're at home up, they
Speaker 2: objectively have the better quarterback, they objectively have the scariest
Speaker 2: player in the game in Justin Jefferson, and their biggest
Speaker 2: weakness is their past defense. And the Giants don't like
Speaker 2: to pass the football. Do I think Daniel Jones is
Speaker 2: going on the road and getting a playoff win? I
Speaker 2: don't do. I think the Vikings are a contender. No,
Speaker 2: do I think that they should be a four point favorite.
Speaker 3: At least.
Speaker 2: I do. Minnesota minus three possibly a push, But the
Speaker 2: line is where it is is our pick? What's up?
Speaker 3: A little bit of a change of a change of heart?
Speaker 3: Why you took this exact same match up earlier at
Speaker 3: plus four on the Giants.
Speaker 2: When they played earlier.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, and you say that they have like the
Speaker 3: better quarterback and everything.
Speaker 2: Okay, I took the Giants plus four Minnesota one by three.
Speaker 2: It's a big point, isn't it. I took the Giants
Speaker 2: getting four. The Vikings won on a sixty one yard
Speaker 2: field goal at the gun. Cash my bet I done.
Speaker 2: If that spot was minus or plus three, that would
Speaker 2: have just been a push. That's a big point. It's
Speaker 2: a big point.
Speaker 3: Qub's making their first NFL playoffs start of going seventeen
Speaker 3: thirty six and one against the spread.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and listen, I'm obviously on Brock Purty making his
Speaker 2: first playoff start, but I'm against Daniel Jones making his. Okay,
Speaker 2: this game is I almost shouldn't pick this game because
Speaker 2: it's Baltimore plus eight and a half at Cincinnati. If
Speaker 2: if Lamar plays, it'll be plus four. If Snoop Hountley plays,
Speaker 2: it'll be plus seven. If Anthony Brown plays, who played
Speaker 2: this team last week, it'll probably move to ten. I am.
Speaker 2: I believe that there is an outside chance Lamar plays
Speaker 2: and if not, Snoop Puntley's gonna play go ahead.
Speaker 3: I'm just kind of it's gonna be kind of this.
Speaker 3: I just thought of it. Oh, this guy, like, what
Speaker 3: if that guy watches the podcast?
Speaker 2: Which guy Anthony Brown?
Speaker 3: Him?
Speaker 2: Anthony Brown listen. I enjoyed watching New Oregon. He didn't
Speaker 2: expect to be starting a playoff game either. He knows
Speaker 2: it's true. And if you are watching the podcast, Anthony
Speaker 2: getting the playbook, buddy, we got you plus eight and
Speaker 2: a half. Here's the thing. So sincint Joe Burrow has
Speaker 2: struggled against one defense this year more than any other,
Speaker 2: the Ravens. He threw for two hundred and fifteen yards,
Speaker 2: then two hundred and seventeen yards. He has one touchdown.
Speaker 2: He has one turnover. In their two matchups, Baltimore won
Speaker 2: the first one, Cincinnati won the second one this past weekend,
Speaker 2: in a game they should have been able to blow
Speaker 2: him out. They didn't quite. They blew him out early
Speaker 2: and then Baltimore kind of clawed back. Additionally, Lyell Collins,
Speaker 2: the Bengals right tackle, is out and Alex Kappa their
Speaker 2: right guard is probably out. That Baltimore defense has been
Speaker 2: sensation absolutely sensational, particularly since getting Roquan Smith. So even
Speaker 2: if the quarterback is as big of a discrepancy as
Speaker 2: you're ever gonna get in the postseason, other than Mahomes
Speaker 2: versus the decaying Ben Roethlisberger in the first round last year,
Speaker 2: Burrow versus Huntley, or Burrow versus Anthony Demonte's buddy Anthony Brown,
Speaker 2: Baltimore is gonna run the ball, play great defense. That
Speaker 2: is too many points for a divisional rematch with an
Speaker 2: excellent coach and an excellent defense, all take the plus
Speaker 2: eight and a half.
Speaker 3: Even not knowing who the quarterback is.
Speaker 2: Well, I gotta you say that, but no matter what
Speaker 2: side I pick, I gotta I don't know who the
Speaker 2: quarterback is. Yeah, obviously I would maybe wait, I'll I
Speaker 2: one of my one of the guys at my poker
Speaker 2: game got so mad at me, so I was playing.
Speaker 2: I played poker twice this week, Monday and Wednesday. So
Speaker 2: Monday I got there and this guy's like, hey, I
Speaker 2: want to put a huge bet in on the Bengals.
Speaker 2: Should I wait or do it? Now? They were six
Speaker 2: and a half and I was like, I think Lamar
Speaker 2: is gonna play, and the line moves to four. He's
Speaker 2: like really, I'm like, yeah, I think he is. He's like, okay,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait. I think this guy's gonna bet like
Speaker 2: twenty thousand dollars in the game. And then I got
Speaker 2: there yesterday in the line and.
Speaker 3: He was heated.
Speaker 2: He was big. Mad's like what the half man? I'm like,
Speaker 2: you know, sorry, I don't know what to tell you.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's not the same game.
Speaker 2: Partly, No, he waited to bet. He wanted to bet Cincinnati,
Speaker 2: and he he could have got him at minus six
Speaker 2: and a half, and on my advice, waited and now
Speaker 2: they're month this last game. No, no, no, the game
Speaker 2: coming up. Listen. He wanted to bet on this weekend's
Speaker 2: game on Cincinnati. Cincinnati was a six and a half
Speaker 2: point favorite, so he would only have to lay six
Speaker 2: and a half. I told him to wait. They are
Speaker 2: now an eight and a half point favorite, so he
Speaker 2: has to lay eight and a half. So he's upset
Speaker 2: with me. All right. Lastly, I mean we've been you know,
Speaker 2: throttling towards this point all year. Tom Brady getting the
Speaker 2: best draw possible and all of a sudden showing up
Speaker 2: in the conference championship game Tampa Bay plus two and
Speaker 2: a half against Dallas. I think they went out right.
Speaker 2: I did get this at plus three early in the week,
Speaker 2: and I got this on the money line early in
Speaker 2: the week. The Cowboys are coming off their worst game
Speaker 2: of the year. Tampa Bay. Brady said, it is the
Speaker 2: healthiest they've been all year. They might have Ryan Jensen back,
Speaker 2: their Pro Bowl center who's been out all year. The
Speaker 2: secondary's healthier, They're at home. This is a game that
Speaker 2: the Tom Brady flatly wins, and we start having a
Speaker 2: real conversation about Dak Prescott and about Mike McCarthy. The
Speaker 2: Bucks can't run the I don't think they'll need to.
Speaker 2: The Brady and Evans combo will work. And also I
Speaker 2: pointed this out on TV after Jason Garrett said on
Speaker 2: Sunday Night Football, the Cowboys on turf on grass splits
Speaker 2: are unbelievable. On turf they are eleven and one, scoring
Speaker 2: twenty seven a game and allowing eighteen a game. On grass,
Speaker 2: they are one in four, scoring twenty a game and
Speaker 2: allowing twenty eight a game. So the offense gets worse
Speaker 2: by a touchdown. The defense gets worse by ten points
Speaker 2: when you go from turf to grass. Tampa Bay is grass.
Speaker 2: And by the way, the cowboys one loss on turf
Speaker 2: all year was against Tampa Bay Week one, nineteen to three.
Speaker 2: Tampa wins. Mike McCarthy's on the hot seat for Sean Payton.
Speaker 2: Who's real questions about? Is Dak Prescott just Kirk cat
Speaker 2: with better with Mattress commercials.
Speaker 3: I like Tampa here, all right, So obviously your four
Speaker 3: and oh bet with Tom Brady, so I'm messing with it,
Speaker 3: yet say something else. Brady has failed to cover as
Speaker 3: a home dog only twice in his career, against Peyton
Speaker 3: Manning in two thousand and five and Joe Burrow this season.
Speaker 2: All right, I think that last stat is a little misleading,
Speaker 2: because I bet Tom Brady hasn't been a home dog
Speaker 2: more than seven or eight times over the last fifteen years.
Speaker 2: His Brady teams at home would not be underdogs very often.
Speaker 2: I love Tampa here. We talked a lot about this
Speaker 2: game in the Thursday Live show, and we've talked a
Speaker 2: lot about it on TV, so I don't need to
Speaker 2: get into it further. But Tampa plus two and a
Speaker 2: half is our pick. We've got some we might have
Speaker 2: some exotics. We definitely have an offer. We'll do all
Speaker 2: that as we wrap the Gambling Show next, What's right?
Speaker 2: All right? Welcome back? In final segment, Wildcard Weekend Gambling Show,
Speaker 2: quick recap of our six picks. San Francisco laying nine
Speaker 2: and a half, the Jags getting two and a half,
Speaker 2: Miami getting thirteen and a half, Minnesota laying three, Baltimore
Speaker 2: plus six and a half, and Tampa plus two and
Speaker 2: a half, Baltimore plus eight and a half. I don't
Speaker 2: know what I said, sorry about that. We have a
Speaker 2: we we don't have a lock this week because we're
Speaker 2: not doing locks anymore. I've decided we're done with locks.
Speaker 2: With all our picks, we love them equally, we're not
Speaker 2: doing locks. We do, however, have a couple exotics for you.
Speaker 2: So you guys demand say, you guys have a teaser
Speaker 2: that I think you want to suggest to me, but
Speaker 2: that's go ahead.
Speaker 3: And the seven point tease of the Bengals, Bills, Bucks,
Speaker 3: and Niners.
Speaker 2: Okay, so teasing the Bengals, that would be teasing the
Speaker 2: Bengals to a point and a half, Teasing the Bills
Speaker 2: down to six and a half, teasing the Bucks up
Speaker 2: to nine and a half and teasing the Niners down
Speaker 2: to two and a half. That's not a terrible teaser.
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna I'm not gonna lie. There's actually going
Speaker 2: across key numbers. But it's a four team teaser. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna stay away from that one. I'm not You're not no,
Speaker 2: you're in on it.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: That makes me a little nervous for you, buddy. It
Speaker 2: also means we're gonna be have conflicting rooting interests on
Speaker 2: some of this stuff, which I never enjoy watching. You know,
Speaker 2: let don't put it in just yet. Okay, let's discuss.
Speaker 2: Just don't put it in just yet. Here's the teaser.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna make a two team, seven point Saturday teaser.
Speaker 2: We are teasing the Niners down to two and a
Speaker 2: half from nine and a half, and we are teasing
Speaker 2: the Jags up from two and a half to nine
Speaker 2: and a half. So the key numbers of three, four, six, seven, eight,
Speaker 2: all of it, we are coming through them in both directions.
Speaker 2: The Niners have to win by a field goal. The
Speaker 2: Jags just either have to win or lose by less
Speaker 2: than ten that's the teaser we're doing. Also full transparency,
Speaker 2: I did not get good line value on any of this, however,
Speaker 2: and you know how I know I didn't get good
Speaker 2: line value. Right now, my cash out option is for
Speaker 2: half of my original stake, which kind of sucks considering
Speaker 2: the fact none of these games have kicked off.
Speaker 3: But that always happens, so I get bad line value
Speaker 3: all the time.
Speaker 2: Man, it's the worst. So I Monday morning put this
Speaker 2: bet in of my six picks this weekend, the Niners
Speaker 2: minus ten, so I lost a half point of line value,
Speaker 2: the Dolphins plus eleven so I lost two and a
Speaker 2: half points of line value, the Jags on the money line,
Speaker 2: Tampa on the money line Baltimore plus six and a
Speaker 2: half lost two key points of line value, and the
Speaker 2: Vikings minus three. That is sixty three to one. So
Speaker 2: though the Jags to win, the Bucks to win, the
Speaker 2: Dolphins and Ravens, Vikings and Niners to all cover, that's
Speaker 2: my parlay. I have actually placed. What's the offer from
Speaker 2: you guys before we wrap it up?
Speaker 3: Okay, this week's offer is the Jags money line or
Speaker 3: plus four fourteen Wait, yeah, plus one fourteen, Trevor over
Speaker 3: two hundred and forty eight passing yards San Francisco minus
Speaker 3: sixteen and a half as a plus one ninety six
Speaker 3: all this combined for uh plus what do you call that?
Speaker 3: Eleven eleven to one? No? Eleven to one? Sorry?
Speaker 2: Yeah, be eleven to one plus eleven two hundred and
Speaker 2: forty eight point five to be exactly two hundred and
Speaker 2: forty nine passing yards. Demase, I'm taking that offer. Are
Speaker 2: gonna blow out the Seahawks. The Jacks are obviously gonna win.
Speaker 2: I'm a little nervous on the Trevor over because this
Speaker 2: might be a big Travis etn game. But Trevor in
Speaker 2: his first playoff game, is gonna play well, especially after
Speaker 2: being shaky against the Titans. Eleven to one, we accept
Speaker 2: that offer. What's up?
Speaker 3: I gotta admit, man, I'm gonna take this offer. I've
Speaker 3: never even taken the offer, and I'm the one always
Speaker 3: giving it out. I'm never taking it once. And it's
Speaker 3: like it's.
Speaker 2: Hit a few times. It's hit a few times. Our
Speaker 2: offers have been good. We haven't really done a lot
Speaker 2: with it, talked about it much because we're a serious
Speaker 2: operation and these are all wackied. Twelve to one twenty
Speaker 2: to one long shots. But yeah, playoff weekend. We're in
Speaker 2: on it, all right. We will see you guys on Monday.
Speaker 2: Demonte real quick. Do you smell that smell?
Speaker 3: Oh? In eighteen?
Speaker 2: Do you know? Do you do?
Speaker 3: You do?
Speaker 2: You know what that smells like? Smells like what six?
Speaker 2: And zero? Smells like six and smells like six and
Speaker 2: oh and will be more than halfway or almost halfway
Speaker 2: to our thirteen and oh dream yeah, so at least
Speaker 2: if you do, if you don't end up going six
Speaker 2: and oh, you will be zero and one for times
Speaker 2: that you said smells like six and oh it's different.
Speaker 2: It's usually it's five, and oh, now it's it's six
Speaker 2: and oh, smells like six and oh. We'll see you
Speaker 2: guys Monday. What's right, ye