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Speaker 1: disclosures and disclaimers at CBO dot com slash us Underscore disclaimers.

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Speaker 3: Welcome.

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Speaker 2: In episode one seventeen, What's Right with Nick Wright, our

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Speaker 2: wild card weekend gambling show, the weekend that we reset

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Speaker 2: the record back to zero, we look back on how

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Speaker 2: we did, and first we must recap week eighteen, where

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Speaker 2: you know, sometimes I've got to say demanse I even

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Speaker 2: impressed myself. The goal, as always is to be profitable.

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Speaker 2: The underlying goal is always to not make this whole

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Speaker 2: thing look ridiculous. And going into the final week of

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Speaker 2: the season, we were six games under five hundred, and

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Speaker 2: we had a chance of looking ridiculous, and so you know,

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Speaker 2: I took a big risk. I went against a lot

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Speaker 2: of my principles, and we said we're going to bet

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Speaker 2: every game on the board, with the caveat of the

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Speaker 2: Bills and the Bengals because when we were recording last

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Speaker 2: week's show, we didn't yet know if they were going

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Speaker 2: to be replaying their game. We did, so we left

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Speaker 2: that out. So we had fourteen games, so we needed

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Speaker 2: to go ten and four to finish at five hundred.

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Speaker 2: We needed to go eleven and three, seventy eight percent

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Speaker 2: against the spread. Almost impossible to finish above five hundred.

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Speaker 2: Blue Duck Media team who produces this podcast and YouTube show,

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Speaker 2: show us last week's results, ten and four. All that's

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Speaker 2: eleven and three. Oh my goodness, gracious, that's the first

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Speaker 2: seven games. That's six and one. We can go through them.

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Speaker 2: Kansasity might have sign and have at Vegas. Never at

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Speaker 2: out Atlanta minus four against Tampa. That one. Confused Old

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Speaker 2: Demonse came down the next morning. He was like, I

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Speaker 2: don't get this line at all. I was like, eh,

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Speaker 2: I don't think Tampa's gonna play their starters that long.

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Speaker 2: Tampa jumped out seven to nothing. It's like, I don't

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Speaker 2: worry about it. Took the starters out Atlanta covers Miami.

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Speaker 2: We got them plus one against the Jets. That line

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Speaker 2: moved all the way to miamiree three and a half,

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Speaker 2: but that would have covered anyway thanks to a safety

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Speaker 2: on the final play of the game. If you had

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Speaker 2: the Jets plus three and a half, Oh my goodness, gracious,

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville minus six against Tennessee didn't cover Minnesota minus seven

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Speaker 2: and a half against Chicago. We told you Chicago was

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Speaker 2: trying to win. Get the number one pick is how

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Speaker 2: could they? How could they compete Carolina plus three and

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Speaker 2: a half against New Orleans. I honestly don't know who

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Speaker 2: won that game. I just know it was ten to seven,

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Speaker 2: and no the Carolina one Donald was terrible. They won anyway,

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Speaker 2: ten to seven. Donald's quarterback rating in that game was

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Speaker 2: two point eight two point eight, and they won. For

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Speaker 2: the record, I like to remind people of this, you

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Speaker 2: get a quarterback rating of thirty nine point six for

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Speaker 2: spiking the football. His was two point eight. Pittsburgh minus

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Speaker 2: two and a half against Cleveland. We knew Tomlin in

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Speaker 2: a must win situation against the Browns, he was gonna

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Speaker 2: show up. So that's six and one. Show us the

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Speaker 2: next seven picks. If you would please. Indy minus two

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Speaker 2: and a half against Houston. That's a loser. That's a

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Speaker 2: loser because they converted a fourth and twelve and then

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Speaker 2: a fourth and twenty to get in the end zone,

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Speaker 2: or that would have been a winner. Giants plus fourteen

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Speaker 2: against Philly. They lost by six on side kick at

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Speaker 2: the end of the game. Where the lose bys eight,

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure six eight, seven, doesn't matter. They covered

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Speaker 2: Dallas minus seven and a half against Washington. We were

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Speaker 2: on the wrong side of that one. That was a laugher.

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Speaker 2: Who's twenty six to six Washington? They covered by twenty

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Speaker 2: seven and a half points. Doesn't matter. Just one loss.

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Speaker 2: Denver minus two and a half against the Chargers. How

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Speaker 2: right were we about this one? We said, we think

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Speaker 2: Denver can win outright because the Chargers are gonna play

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Speaker 2: their backups. The Chargers because there are a bunch of dopes,

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Speaker 2: played their starters almost the whole way. Denver won out

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Speaker 2: right anyway. San Francisco minus fourteen against Arizona. We said

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Speaker 2: they're gonna annihilate the Cardinals. First play of the game,

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Speaker 2: Cardinals trick play touchdown. Oh my god, they're up seven

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Speaker 2: to nothing. Doesn't matter. They rolled them Rams plus six

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Speaker 2: and a half against Seattle. That game goes to overtime,

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Speaker 2: Detroit plus five and a half against Screen Bay they

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Speaker 2: win outright. That puts our record on the year to

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Speaker 2: fifty forty eight and two. Now, because we're fair on this,

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Speaker 2: was that profitable not when you incorporate the VIG right,

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Speaker 2: we would have won fifty units, we would have lost.

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Speaker 2: Let me do the mask the year fifty two point

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Speaker 2: eight units because you got to do the ten percent

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Speaker 2: on your losses. So down two point eight units technically

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Speaker 2: with the VIG but given the fact that we bet

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Speaker 2: these things on Thursday, we don't have full information, finishing

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Speaker 2: about five hundred is sensational. One last thing is we're

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Speaker 2: about to get to our season wraps and then we'll

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Speaker 2: get to the shows. I've got a because to be fair,

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Speaker 2: we had been updating this throughout the year, and I'll

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Speaker 2: do it much more quickly this time. Go through our

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Speaker 2: preseason bets. Baltimore we had over ten and a half.

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Speaker 2: They finished at ten. That's a shame. The Lamar injury

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Speaker 2: really hurt us. So that's a loss. Indy over nine

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Speaker 2: and a half, not even close. That's a loss Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: over six and a half winner, Kansas City over ten

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Speaker 2: and a half winner, New England under eight and a half. Oh,

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Speaker 2: they came through in the end for US in a

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Speaker 2: big way winner Giants under seven and a half loser,

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Speaker 2: so we're three and three. San Francisco over nine and

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Speaker 2: a half strong over winner by a mile. Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 2: Our single favorite bet of the year was the Tampa

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Speaker 2: Bay under eleven and a half. They won eight games,

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Speaker 2: so that's five and three in our preseason win total bets.

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Speaker 2: We feel good about that. Make miss playoff bets Cleveland

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Speaker 2: miss Playoffs winner, Denver miss Playoffs winner, New England MISSUS

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Speaker 2: Playoffs winner. Denver was plus money. Cleveland, New England were

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Speaker 2: minus money. Our two make miss playoffs parlays, we were

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Speaker 2: close on this one. Minus one oh five was the

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Speaker 2: action on New England, Atlanta, the Jets, and Seattle to

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Speaker 2: miss the playoffs. Seattle got in, so that's a loser.

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Speaker 2: Kansas City, Baltimore, Indie, and San Francisco to all make

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Speaker 2: the playoffs. That was plus four forty. That's a loser.

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Speaker 2: So we on the make miss playoff bets, we had

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Speaker 2: two losers, three winners. That's profitable, and by our season

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Speaker 2: long bet Kansas City and San Francisco to be in

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Speaker 2: the super Bowl. At fifty to one, it's still a lot.

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Speaker 2: So five and three in season win totals profitable, three

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Speaker 2: and two and make miss playoff bets profitable, very profitable

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Speaker 2: because we had plus money on a couple of them.

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Speaker 2: And we'll see in the fifty to one. So our

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Speaker 2: preseason bets were profitable. Our regular season finished above five

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Speaker 2: hundred and now demans, sorry that you haven't been able

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Speaker 2: to talk yet, but I'm so excited before we get

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Speaker 2: to these picks. What are we doing here?

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Speaker 3: Eleven and three? So, like how Spotify has this like

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Speaker 3: wrap thing where it does little recap.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, subscribe to this pot on Spotify and iTunes and everywhere.

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Speaker 2: Go ahead.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they did a little seasonal recap for you, a

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Speaker 3: little rap version by the producer in La let me see.

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Speaker 3: Uh So, first off, we've got to know for showing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for showing it right there.

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Speaker 3: Phographics all right, So best picks. We got Divisional Games

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Speaker 3: twenty seven two. Oh, hold on, let's let's let's let's kill.

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Speaker 2: Marinate in this because this is you know why that

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Speaker 2: Divisional Games twenty seven and twelve means something to me.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about this playoff weekend for just a moment.

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Speaker 2: Miami Buffalo is a divisional game, Cincinnati Baltimore is a

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Speaker 2: divisional game. Seattle San Francisco is a divisional game. So

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Speaker 2: three of our six games this weekend our divisional games.

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Speaker 2: And twenty seven and twelve what's that? Twenty times two

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Speaker 2: point five? So fifty four? So we're at sixty nine

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Speaker 2: percent against the spread and divisional games. I did that,

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Speaker 2: MATHO was like, Patrick Mahomes, what's that? Oh, it's completion percentage?

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Speaker 2: What do you mean?

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Speaker 3: Actually, guess Patrick Mahomes is a little bit higher.

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Speaker 2: No, sixty nine percent almost exactly right. What's twenty seven

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Speaker 2: over the division?

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Speaker 4: Oh?

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Speaker 2: My god, that's the what percentage is that? DeMont? Sixty

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Speaker 2: nine point two?

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Speaker 3: Got that?

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Speaker 2: I like when I do stuff like that. Twenty seven

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Speaker 2: and twelve, six nine percent? What's next?

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Speaker 3: So next we got road dogs twenty five fourteen and one.

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Speaker 2: So road dogs again, we can do sixty two and

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Speaker 2: a half percent against the spread twenty five plus fourteen

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Speaker 2: plus one sport. Yeah, sixty two and a half percent,

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Speaker 2: all right, so road dogs we like? Yeah, divisional games

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Speaker 2: we like keep that in mind for our six picks. That,

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Speaker 2: by the way, I should have said, is the top

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Speaker 2: of the show. We're picking every playoff game. We have

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Speaker 2: a lifelong dream of going undefeated in the playoffs. They

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Speaker 2: made it harder. You still only have to get eleven games,

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Speaker 2: right now, you have to get thirteen games, right because

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Speaker 2: they added the teams. By the way, fun fact for

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Speaker 2: anybody out there, no matter the format, Uh, any single

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Speaker 2: elimination tournament, I don't care if it's the NCAA tournament,

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Speaker 2: I don't care it's the playoffs, any single elimination tournament.

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Speaker 2: Now you can quickly figure out how many games are

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Speaker 2: going to be played in the whole tournament. However many

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Speaker 2: teams are in it minus one, because everybody's got to

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Speaker 2: lose at least once except for the champion. So a

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Speaker 2: sixty eight team in Cuba Field, you know how many

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Speaker 2: games there are? Sixty seven? A fourteen team NFL playoffs,

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Speaker 2: any games there are thirteen? All right, go ahead, next

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Speaker 2: fading victor undefeated. Oh that's unfair, Vic rallied VIC was

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Speaker 2: you know? Yeah, show Vic, it's unfair. I wouldn't let

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Speaker 2: them put that on there. You had a you you

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Speaker 2: know you were I think you were sandbagging us vic

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Speaker 2: Vic's you know, first weekend, I think it was zero

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Speaker 2: for five, but then he rallied, so that's no problem,

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Speaker 2: all right.

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Speaker 3: Next the same game parlay plus thirty two K.

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Speaker 2: That was the highlight of the gambling season. Yeah, and

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Speaker 2: and that moment sharing that bet with you in your

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Speaker 2: reaction huge bet. Yeah, the I mean that's exactly what

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Speaker 2: it was.

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Speaker 3: It was.

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Speaker 2: It was eight hundred bucks of forty to one, all right.

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Speaker 3: Next betting NFC East teams, you were nine and two.

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Speaker 2: All right. So those are my top picks. I feel

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Speaker 2: like the opposite's coming on the old Spotify raft ripoff

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Speaker 2: we're doing here, what's next?

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Speaker 3: Worst picks coming in at number one is one in

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Speaker 3: seven versus the Jags.

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Speaker 2: Well, so here's the thing. Here's the question that I

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Speaker 2: would have here and the well one and seven involving

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Speaker 2: the Jags, And I don't know about this crying the

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Speaker 2: graphic they have of me. Yes, I was bad picking

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Speaker 2: the Jags singularly, but overall, I think I'm the rightest

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Speaker 2: man in America about the Jacks. Before the year, I

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Speaker 2: said they could win the division. I bet them to

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Speaker 2: make the playoffs, and I bet them to win nine games.

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Speaker 2: That's right, right, all along?

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Speaker 3: All right?

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Speaker 2: What's next?

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Speaker 3: Why?

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Speaker 2: Okay, shut up? Yeah, you know what I've decided, by

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Speaker 2: the way, I'm not doing that anymore. I'm not doing anymore.

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Speaker 2: It's like picking your amongst your chouldren, like you have

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Speaker 2: to pick a favorite, You're gonna get it wrong. All

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Speaker 2: my picks are I love them all. I was bad

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Speaker 2: on my locks on TV, I was bad on the

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Speaker 2: right move on this podcast. They're all the picks are

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Speaker 2: equal value to me. I'm not doing that anymore. Next.

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Speaker 3: Okay, twelve and eighteen for home favorites. Okay, twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: eight and two in early windows.

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Speaker 2: All right, I don't you know what that that's meaningless

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Speaker 2: to the early window thing. I just think that's random.

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Speaker 2: If I'm twenty twenty eight and two in early windows

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Speaker 2: and I finished the year forty forty eight and two overall,

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Speaker 2: I guess that means I'm thirty and twenty in the

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Speaker 2: non one o'clock window, which is I guess maybe noteworthy,

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Speaker 2: but I'm not sure. And what is this final bullet point?

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Speaker 3: Wait, eighteen and ten in the late window.

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Speaker 2: Oh no, confusing, No, no, no, because I finished, I'd

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Speaker 2: be twenty twenty eight and two in the early games

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Speaker 2: and oh, copy so what I'm saying, So that would

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Speaker 2: be thirty and twenty in the late games.

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Speaker 3: You know, honestly, guys, I thought when we put early

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Speaker 3: windows we were talking about like games where we bet

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Speaker 3: early in the line of value increased or something.

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Speaker 2: Oh no, no, I think they mean the one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, oh and seventeen when claiming it smells it's

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Speaker 3: not that funny. Oh in seventeen when claiming it smells

246
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Speaker 3: like five and oh, that is that funny.

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Speaker 2: It's not that funny.

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Speaker 3: That's freaking hilarious.

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Speaker 2: It's not that funny. I didn't have any five and

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Speaker 2: oh weeks. Okay, this was not the but you know what,

251
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Speaker 2: maybe that means I'm having six in a week this week.

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Speaker 2: That's first of all. Second of all, I had no

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Speaker 2: oh in five weeks. They just cancel each other out.

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Speaker 2: Wait what, Yeah, I didn't have an O five, Matt,

255
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Speaker 2: correct us if I'm wrong. There's no way I had.

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Speaker 3: You had one and four?

257
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Speaker 2: No, I had a couple. I think I might add

258
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Speaker 2: two to one in fours.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: No, oh and five, oh and five? You gotta contemplate

261
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Speaker 2: retirement with the If you flip a coin, the odds

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Speaker 2: of getting it wrong five straight times is one in

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Speaker 2: thirty two. I'm not going on five.

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Speaker 3: Are we throwing shots at Vic right now?

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Speaker 2: I told you Vic was sandbagging Vic. Vic was wanting

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Speaker 2: us off his scent. He didn't want us to follow

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Speaker 2: his bets. Vic. I'm with you. They're being rude to you,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think it's nice. All right, we got

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Speaker 2: more of these?

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Speaker 3: Uh yeah? So we got clairvoyant here like Jacksonville better

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Speaker 3: in London games one and.

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Speaker 2: Oh oh, undefeated in London games. I like that, okay?

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Speaker 3: And which one was it was? It was the Seattle game?

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Speaker 2: No Seattle, No, that was Germany, okay, Oh, Seattle, London,

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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay was Germany in Minnesota, New Orleans, London, Minnesota. Now,

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Speaker 2: so I might have been two to zero betting in

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Speaker 2: European games. I'm not sure.

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Speaker 5: I know.

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Speaker 2: I got Germany right one and oh in London, and

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Speaker 2: you're in London. Go ahead, next.

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Speaker 3: Five and one betting games involving Nathaniel Hackett.

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Speaker 2: You gotta love that one, yeah, I mean I told

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Speaker 2: you guys, we lost our opportunity. Now he's gone forever.

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Speaker 2: But it was a wonderful I mean, it was a

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Speaker 2: wonderful moment in time.

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Speaker 3: Next uh for uh yeah, four and O betting on

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Speaker 3: Tom Brady.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's okay, that's noteworthy because he's another one coming up. Yep,

289
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Speaker 2: six oh to one. Beating on LA teams, betting betting

290
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Speaker 2: on LA teams. Okay, all right, no noteworthy, all right,

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Speaker 2: last one because I didn't realize how long we were

292
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Speaker 2: going to go ahead.

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Speaker 3: Blind spots betting on AFC cell teams two and twelve.

294
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Speaker 2: A lot of that's the Jacks. A lot of that

295
00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,840
Speaker 2: involves the Jacks, all right, go ahead betting against uh,

296
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Speaker 2: betting against top against the spread teams. So the best

297
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Speaker 2: teams against the spread this year were the Giants, the

298
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Speaker 2: Bengals in Detroit, So that means their record against the spread. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: they go ahead.

300
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Speaker 3: Sorry, yeah, and I'm aware I was I heard something

301
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Speaker 3: about the AFC selth in my ear.

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Speaker 2: Okay, but yea chatting against against the best the spread, Yeah, sure,

303
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Speaker 2: I'm owen ten. But Mike Tomlin's more historic, not so

304
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Speaker 2: much this year.

305
00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,800
Speaker 3: All right, go ahead, Uh you never uh you never

306
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Speaker 3: took big spreads over seven. But we're seven to two.

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Speaker 2: When you did see, I like that a lot because

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Speaker 2: I think it's smart that I didn't regularly pick huge favorites.

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Speaker 2: But when I did pick a huge favorite, it was

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Speaker 2: because I zeroed in on it and liked it a lot,

311
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Speaker 2: like San Francisco last week, all right, and then lastly.

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Speaker 3: No bets on Buffalo all season.

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Speaker 2: All right. That is a blind That is a blind spot.

314
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Speaker 2: That's not so much a coward as much as it

315
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Speaker 2: is I tend to root against Buffalo, and I put

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Speaker 2: my rooting interest ahead of my monetary interest. I didn't

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Speaker 2: want to be in a spot where I had to

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Speaker 2: root for the Bills. So I do agree that is

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Speaker 2: a blind spot. I don't think it's a cowardly to

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Speaker 2: not bet on the Bills. I think it was purely

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Speaker 2: that I knewst the Bills. I bet against the Bills

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Speaker 2: a lot, which is the and they're uh, you know,

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Speaker 2: and there they've been an excellent team this year. Okay,

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Speaker 2: that's a great recap. It's a great job by our crew,

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Speaker 2: and now we have good context for these picks. Well,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna we're gonna give you the two Saturday games. First,

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Speaker 2: first game of the week, San Francisco is laying nine

328
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Speaker 2: and a half against Seattle. San Francisco is gonna win

329
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Speaker 2: this game by at least fourteen points, likely by seventeen points.

330
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Speaker 2: I will lay the nine and a half. Now, it

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00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:32,240
Speaker 2: should be noted prior to this season, Pete Carroll was

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Speaker 2: eight and two against Shanahan. There's a weird thing in

333
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Speaker 2: the NFC West where Shanahan owns McVeigh. McVeigh owns Carol,

334
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Speaker 2: and Carol owned Shanahan, and then everybody owns the Cardinals.

335
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Speaker 2: The Cardinals are just the odd man out there. But

336
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Speaker 2: the Niners traditionally have beat up on the Rams. Since

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Speaker 2: these coach have all been together, the Rams have beat

338
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Speaker 2: up on Seattle, and Seattle's beat up on San Francis

339
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Speaker 2: go this year. Seattle's zero to two against San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: That is an incredibly young defense in Seattle San Francisco.

341
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Speaker 2: While they have a young quarterback, they are so hard

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Speaker 2: to defend because of how intricate and nuanced their run

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Speaker 2: game is. Young defenders in particular are going to struggle

344
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Speaker 2: against that Gino. As much as I appreciate what he's

345
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:28,359
Speaker 2: done this year, Gino didn't exactly finish the season with

346
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Speaker 2: a flurry and Gino going against this San Francisco defense

347
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 2: on the road I think is a recipe for disaster.

348
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,760
Speaker 2: I think Seattle. I mean, if you've listened to Pete

349
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Speaker 2: Carrol all week, he just keeps calling the Niners juggernauts.

350
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Speaker 2: You know, unfortunately we're playing them. They're so good. I

351
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 2: know he's just saying that, he's saying something different to

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Speaker 2: his team, but he also knows it's true. Seattle is

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Speaker 2: in a spot where it's cool they made the playoffs.

354
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Speaker 2: They probably would be going into the offseason with more

355
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:04,720
Speaker 2: momentum had Green Bay beaten Detroit, because then it's like, hey,

356
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,440
Speaker 2: we won our last game, we finished nine and eight.

357
00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 2: We and then you get to going on a high note.

358
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Speaker 2: I think San Francisco absolutely rolls them. Also, I'm not

359
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,479
Speaker 2: sure I'm doing any teasers this weekend, but a seven

360
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 2: point San Francisco teaser teasing them down to minus two

361
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,119
Speaker 2: and a half so you get them through the seven

362
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 2: and the three feels like an absolute must tea. If

363
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,679
Speaker 2: you're going to tease this weekend, that is a must

364
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 2: include leg to San Francisco minus two and a half.

365
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 2: So I like the Niners laying a big number. I

366
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,439
Speaker 2: never lay big numbers. But as you said earlier, what

367
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Speaker 2: did you say, I'm seven and two when laying a

368
00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 2: big number and I'm twenty seven and twelve in divisional games.

369
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:50,400
Speaker 2: This checks both those boxes.

370
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,959
Speaker 3: Go ahead. So first off, I got a little question,

371
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 3: do you think do you think you know what it's

372
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Speaker 3: gonna have above seventeen rushing yards? Since he's gonna be

373
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 3: running around a lot of scarce. Thought about adding that

374
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 3: in one of my parlays last night. Under I wanted

375
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 3: to take the under.

376
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 2: That's a tough one. I gotta tell you you've never

377
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:18,880
Speaker 2: I I don't have a strong feel on it. Gino's

378
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 2: not all that fast. I would air to the side

379
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 2: of the over there, but I would. I've given you

380
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:31,439
Speaker 2: terrible parlay advice this year. You've also never dealt with

381
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 2: and this want to play here because Seattle's not gonna

382
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 2: win the single worst part. Anytime you're doing a quarterback

383
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:44,239
Speaker 2: rushing prop you need to It is scary to do

384
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 2: on a team you think is gonna win because the

385
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 2: kneel downs at the end of the game count as

386
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 2: negative rushing yards, and famously in the Super Bowl, well

387
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 2: correct because they're not gonna but that's what I'm saying. Famously,

388
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 2: in the Chiefs Niners Super Bowl, Mahomes hit his rushing

389
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 2: over by seven yards and then at the end of

390
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 2: the game took three knees, but they weren't regular knees

391
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:21,640
Speaker 2: because they needed to also burn like seven seconds, so

392
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 2: he backed up three steps on each one and lost

393
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 2: three yards three yards, three yards and went from over

394
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 2: by seven to under by two in the Super Bowl,

395
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,959
Speaker 2: where that's a huge prop bet, and his ended up

396
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 2: going under. So that the good thing on quarterback passing

397
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,360
Speaker 2: yards also averages five.

398
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 3: And a half yards.

399
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 2: Oh, that's about right. The the good thing about quarterback

400
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 2: prop passing props is it's very, very hard to get

401
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,200
Speaker 2: negative passing yards. You can, you throw a screen pass,

402
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 2: you get tackled for a loss, but you're not gonna

403
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 2: go negative huge, right.

404
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 3: Probably most of your net and it's like fifteen yards

405
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,400
Speaker 3: throughout a game if.

406
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 2: That, if that, and you can't. They in college football

407
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 2: sacks count against your passing yards, at least for team

408
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,959
Speaker 2: passing yards, so like so I don't know if they

409
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,199
Speaker 2: do for individual players, but if you get sacked for

410
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,199
Speaker 2: ten yards, it counts as negative ten passing yards. Uh,

411
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 2: that doesn't happen in the NFL, all right, Uh, go ahead.

412
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 2: San Francisco is on a ten game winning streak right now,

413
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 2: and teams on a ten game ten game win streak

414
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 2: are two thirteen against the spread in their first playoff game. Yeah,

415
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 2: I get that. That usually means those teams are over

416
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 2: valued because of the Brock Purty factor. I think the

417
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 2: Niners are still undervalue. I think the people are still

418
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,120
Speaker 2: treating it like it's a rookie quarterback in his first

419
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 2: playoff game. But that team is quarter back independent, so

420
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,679
Speaker 2: I'm not worried about that. All right. Next game, guys,

421
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 2: it's the Jags in a playoff game at home, and

422
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 2: I'm getting points. What the do you think I'm gonna

423
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 2: do here? Jack? How dare you.

424
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 3: Against the Jags?

425
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 2: Plus two and a half against the Chargers. Mike Williams

426
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 2: banged up for the Chargers because Staley's a dope, and

427
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 2: played him in that whole game until he had to

428
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 2: be carted off the field as back injury. He didn't

429
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 2: practice Wednesday. We'll see if he practices Thursday. We're recording

430
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 2: this before that's release. On the West Coast, they're at

431
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 2: home Trevor. How about this for a fact? Is humble?

432
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 2: You know how I always bring up Trevor's high school

433
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,480
Speaker 2: and college career. Yeah, all right, Tomanse. NFL games are

434
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 2: on Sunday. Winter college football games typically what.

435
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 3: Day of the weekly Saturday, Saturday.

436
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 2: Trevor played three years of college football. In high school,

437
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: playoff games are off and on Saturday. The regular season

438
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:10,439
Speaker 2: games in high school are on Friday.

439
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 3: I'm gonna say that he's used to playing on Saturday.

440
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna say he's never lost on Saturday in

441
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 2: his football career, high school, college, pro. Look it up, America.

442
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence undefeated on Saturdays. That's impressive for a guy

443
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 2: played three years of big time college football. He went

444
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 2: forty eight and two or thirty eight and two or something.

445
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 2: In college. He only lost twice, and those two losses

446
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 2: were in a playoff scenario where they were not being

447
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: played on Saturday. Also, going back to college, Trevor Lawrence

448
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 2: the year they won the national championship, had one bad

449
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 2: game when he was a starter. That was the ACC

450
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 2: championship game to get into the playoffs, and then don'll playoff.

451
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 2: He was excellent. Jags, Titans it was not the ACC

452
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: championship game. It was the de facto a FC South

453
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 2: championship game. He didn't play that great, But now he's

454
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:13,159
Speaker 2: into the playoffs, he's gonna be awesome. Staley's gonna make

455
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 2: some head scratching mistakes, the Jags getting points. They're gonna

456
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: win out right. They're at home, Boocket, what's the problem?

457
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 3: All right? So the problem is, I mean, you're obviously

458
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 3: one and seven betting with the Jags, but okay, clearly

459
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 3: you don't care about that when the Jags allow more

460
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,360
Speaker 3: than fourteen points. Though, Trevor Lawrence is six and twenty two.

461
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 3: But I'm assuming since it's Saturday, this doesn't really matter.

462
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 2: Well, no, it's not because it's Saturday. It's his thing.

463
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 2: How could he be six and twenty two when this

464
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,360
Speaker 2: is his rookie year and they don't play twenty eight games?

465
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 2: Uh so I'm not I'm not factoring in anything that

466
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 2: happened last year. I will tell you something that happened

467
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 2: this year. The Jags played the Chargers and the Jags

468
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 2: won thirty eight to ten. Thirty eight to ten. The

469
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 2: Jags are winning out right. Trevor is coming to Arrowhead

470
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,640
Speaker 2: with it. It's gonna be mahomes Trevor with a trip

471
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 2: to the AFC Championship game on the line book. It

472
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 2: that is happening, unless, of course, either the Bills or

473
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,439
Speaker 2: the Bengals get upset, then he won't get to come

474
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 2: to Arrowhead because they receive. So I'm not worried.

475
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 3: How are you feeling if Trevor Lawrence goes and beats

476
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 3: the Chiefs?

477
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 2: It's literally the only scenario where where the Chiefs win.

478
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 2: I'm fine what people on television fans are gonna mock

479
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:31,120
Speaker 2: me because the guy that I am the biggest national

480
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 2: advocate of beat my team. No, it's the only scenario

481
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 2: where the Chiefs don't win the Super Bowl where I

482
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 2: still win. So I'm fine with it. We got four

483
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 2: more games to pick. We're gonna take a quick break,

484
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 2: come right back. What's Right? Wild Card Weekend Gambling Show.

485
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,560
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486
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488
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493
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Speaker 2: All right, welcome back. In episode one seventeen our wild

494
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 2: Card weekend gambling show. We already gave you Jacks plus

495
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 2: two and a half and the Niners minus nine and

496
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 2: a half. All Right, we have two Sunday games that

497
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 2: we don't as we record this Thursday morning, definitively know

498
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 2: who the quarterback is. Okay, I obviously don't love that,

499
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:48,719
Speaker 2: but we're gonna keep doing these picks as scheduled and

500
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 2: we'll deal with it. The first one is Miami at Buffalo.

501
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 2: Miami is getting thirteen and a half points. I believe

502
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater is gonna play. If Sky Thompson plays, I'm bleeped. Okay,

503
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna flatly say it. If Teddy plays, this

504
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 2: line will go back closer to eleven. Miami has played

505
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 2: Buffalo incredibly close both times all year. It's the third

506
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 2: matchup Miami has shown that they can deal with the cold,

507
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 2: as they did when they almost Miami was up twenty

508
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 2: nine to twenty one in that game a few weeks ago. Furthermore,

509
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 2: I think it's now okay to say this. I hope

510
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: it doesn't come across as two as insensitive. Now that

511
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: we know Damar's healthy, I think he'll probably be at

512
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 2: this game we can talk about. I think the actual

513
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 2: impact of not having Deamar Hamlin the football player for

514
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 2: a game like this so tomorrow was their backup safety

515
00:28:56,360 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 2: stepped in valiantly for their all pro safety. Now they're

516
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 2: on their third string safety against Tyreek Kill and Jalen Waddle. Furthermore,

517
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 2: if a team can ever look somewhat unimpressive, scoring thirty

518
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,640
Speaker 2: five against the Patriots, I feel like that was Buffalo

519
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 2: this weekend. In this one regard to Manse, they had

520
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 2: two kick return touchdowns. They're only five in the league

521
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 2: all year. They had two, So that's not happening again.

522
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 2: It was a beautiful human and football moment. I don't

523
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 2: think that's happening again. Mac Jones looked like a real

524
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 2: quarterback against this Buffalo defense. Teddy is better than Mac Jones. Now.

525
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 2: He also threw three picks. I am not picking Miami

526
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 2: to win the football game, obviously. However, thirteen and a

527
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 2: half points for a divisional rematch when Miami won one

528
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 2: and had a fourth quarter lead in the second is

529
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 2: way too many points. I am taking Miami plus thirteen

530
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 2: and a half.

531
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 3: So this bet actually hits two year blind spots, first

532
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 3: of all, betting buffalo and betting on a big favorite.

533
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 2: Okay, but also hits two of my strongest points, road dogs.

534
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 2: I'm twenty five and fourteen divisional games. I'm twenty seven

535
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 2: and twelve. There's a road dog in a divisional rematch.

536
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 2: I just think thirteen and a half is too many points.

537
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 2: I again, if Skyler Thompson is playing, this thing, probably

538
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 2: is fourteen and a half, and I lose value on

539
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 2: a point. I think Teddy's gonna play. I think Miami

540
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 2: is going to at the very least be in it

541
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 2: for a back door cover. They could be down twenty

542
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter and I could still be alive.

543
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 2: I'll take the plus thirteen and a half.

544
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 3: Double digit underdogs are three and eleven against the spread

545
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 3: and playoffs since twenty eleven.

546
00:30:56,440 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 2: Okay, okay, I'm taking Miami plus thirteen and a half.

547
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 2: You're not talking me out of it. Minnesota minus three

548
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 2: against the Giants. I think people have gone a touch.

549
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,719
Speaker 5: Too far on the Vikings in the negative way. Okay,

550
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 5: so you wasn't a talk What do you mean, No,

551
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 5: go ahead? I mean, I feel like you've never been

552
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 5: very high on them.

553
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 3: I'm not.

554
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 2: I'm not high on the bike.

555
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 3: Season, even when they were really rolling.

556
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, agreed. And I think because I have such a

557
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: valuable trusted voice in the marketplace that my Vikings pessimism

558
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 2: has infiltrated the marketplace, and now they're slightly undervalued. I

559
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 2: think Minnesota in this spot should be a four point favorite.

560
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 2: There are three point favorites. They're at home up, they

561
00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 2: objectively have the better quarterback, they objectively have the scariest

562
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 2: player in the game in Justin Jefferson, and their biggest

563
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 2: weakness is their past defense. And the Giants don't like

564
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 2: to pass the football. Do I think Daniel Jones is

565
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: going on the road and getting a playoff win? I

566
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 2: don't do. I think the Vikings are a contender. No,

567
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 2: do I think that they should be a four point favorite.

568
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 3: At least.

569
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 2: I do. Minnesota minus three possibly a push, But the

570
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:34,719
Speaker 2: line is where it is is our pick? What's up?

571
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 3: A little bit of a change of a change of heart?

572
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 3: Why you took this exact same match up earlier at

573
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 3: plus four on the Giants.

574
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 2: When they played earlier.

575
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, and you say that they have like the

576
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 3: better quarterback and everything.

577
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 2: Okay, I took the Giants plus four Minnesota one by three.

578
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 2: It's a big point, isn't it. I took the Giants

579
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 2: getting four. The Vikings won on a sixty one yard

580
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 2: field goal at the gun. Cash my bet I done.

581
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 2: If that spot was minus or plus three, that would

582
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 2: have just been a push. That's a big point. It's

583
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 2: a big point.

584
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 3: Qub's making their first NFL playoffs start of going seventeen

585
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 3: thirty six and one against the spread.

586
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, and listen, I'm obviously on Brock Purty making his

587
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 2: first playoff start, but I'm against Daniel Jones making his. Okay,

588
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 2: this game is I almost shouldn't pick this game because

589
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 2: it's Baltimore plus eight and a half at Cincinnati. If

590
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: if Lamar plays, it'll be plus four. If Snoop Hountley plays,

591
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 2: it'll be plus seven. If Anthony Brown plays, who played

592
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 2: this team last week, it'll probably move to ten. I am.

593
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:52,479
Speaker 2: I believe that there is an outside chance Lamar plays

594
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 2: and if not, Snoop Puntley's gonna play go ahead.

595
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 3: I'm just kind of it's gonna be kind of this.

596
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,239
Speaker 3: I just thought of it. Oh, this guy, like, what

597
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 3: if that guy watches the podcast?

598
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 2: Which guy Anthony Brown?

599
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 3: Him?

600
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 2: Anthony Brown listen. I enjoyed watching New Oregon. He didn't

601
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,879
Speaker 2: expect to be starting a playoff game either. He knows

602
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 2: it's true. And if you are watching the podcast, Anthony

603
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 2: getting the playbook, buddy, we got you plus eight and

604
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 2: a half. Here's the thing. So sincint Joe Burrow has

605
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: struggled against one defense this year more than any other,

606
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 2: the Ravens. He threw for two hundred and fifteen yards,

607
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,320
Speaker 2: then two hundred and seventeen yards. He has one touchdown.

608
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 2: He has one turnover. In their two matchups, Baltimore won

609
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 2: the first one, Cincinnati won the second one this past weekend,

610
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 2: in a game they should have been able to blow

611
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:48,439
Speaker 2: him out. They didn't quite. They blew him out early

612
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 2: and then Baltimore kind of clawed back. Additionally, Lyell Collins,

613
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 2: the Bengals right tackle, is out and Alex Kappa their

614
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 2: right guard is probably out. That Baltimore defense has been

615
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 2: sensation absolutely sensational, particularly since getting Roquan Smith. So even

616
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 2: if the quarterback is as big of a discrepancy as

617
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 2: you're ever gonna get in the postseason, other than Mahomes

618
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 2: versus the decaying Ben Roethlisberger in the first round last year,

619
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:22,320
Speaker 2: Burrow versus Huntley, or Burrow versus Anthony Demonte's buddy Anthony Brown,

620
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 2: Baltimore is gonna run the ball, play great defense. That

621
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,879
Speaker 2: is too many points for a divisional rematch with an

622
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 2: excellent coach and an excellent defense, all take the plus

623
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 2: eight and a half.

624
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 3: Even not knowing who the quarterback is.

625
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 2: Well, I gotta you say that, but no matter what

626
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 2: side I pick, I gotta I don't know who the

627
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 2: quarterback is. Yeah, obviously I would maybe wait, I'll I

628
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: one of my one of the guys at my poker

629
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 2: game got so mad at me, so I was playing.

630
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,360
Speaker 2: I played poker twice this week, Monday and Wednesday. So

631
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 2: Monday I got there and this guy's like, hey, I

632
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,800
Speaker 2: want to put a huge bet in on the Bengals.

633
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,439
Speaker 2: Should I wait or do it? Now? They were six

634
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,479
Speaker 2: and a half and I was like, I think Lamar

635
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 2: is gonna play, and the line moves to four. He's

636
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 2: like really, I'm like, yeah, I think he is. He's like, okay,

637
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait. I think this guy's gonna bet like

638
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 2: twenty thousand dollars in the game. And then I got

639
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:25,800
Speaker 2: there yesterday in the line and.

640
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 3: He was heated.

641
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 2: He was big. Mad's like what the half man? I'm like,

642
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 2: you know, sorry, I don't know what to tell you.

643
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 3: I mean, it's not the same game.

644
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 2: Partly, No, he waited to bet. He wanted to bet Cincinnati,

645
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 2: and he he could have got him at minus six

646
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,399
Speaker 2: and a half, and on my advice, waited and now

647
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 2: they're month this last game. No, no, no, the game

648
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 2: coming up. Listen. He wanted to bet on this weekend's

649
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 2: game on Cincinnati. Cincinnati was a six and a half

650
00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 2: point favorite, so he would only have to lay six

651
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 2: and a half. I told him to wait. They are

652
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 2: now an eight and a half point favorite, so he

653
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 2: has to lay eight and a half. So he's upset

654
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 2: with me. All right. Lastly, I mean we've been you know,

655
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 2: throttling towards this point all year. Tom Brady getting the

656
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 2: best draw possible and all of a sudden showing up

657
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 2: in the conference championship game Tampa Bay plus two and

658
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 2: a half against Dallas. I think they went out right.

659
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:30,879
Speaker 2: I did get this at plus three early in the week,

660
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 2: and I got this on the money line early in

661
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 2: the week. The Cowboys are coming off their worst game

662
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 2: of the year. Tampa Bay. Brady said, it is the

663
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 2: healthiest they've been all year. They might have Ryan Jensen back,

664
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:43,799
Speaker 2: their Pro Bowl center who's been out all year. The

665
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 2: secondary's healthier, They're at home. This is a game that

666
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 2: the Tom Brady flatly wins, and we start having a

667
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 2: real conversation about Dak Prescott and about Mike McCarthy. The

668
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 2: Bucks can't run the I don't think they'll need to.

669
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 2: The Brady and Evans combo will work. And also I

670
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 2: pointed this out on TV after Jason Garrett said on

671
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:15,760
Speaker 2: Sunday Night Football, the Cowboys on turf on grass splits

672
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 2: are unbelievable. On turf they are eleven and one, scoring

673
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 2: twenty seven a game and allowing eighteen a game. On grass,

674
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 2: they are one in four, scoring twenty a game and

675
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,879
Speaker 2: allowing twenty eight a game. So the offense gets worse

676
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 2: by a touchdown. The defense gets worse by ten points

677
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 2: when you go from turf to grass. Tampa Bay is grass.

678
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 2: And by the way, the cowboys one loss on turf

679
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 2: all year was against Tampa Bay Week one, nineteen to three.

680
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 2: Tampa wins. Mike McCarthy's on the hot seat for Sean Payton.

681
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 2: Who's real questions about? Is Dak Prescott just Kirk cat

682
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 2: with better with Mattress commercials.

683
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 3: I like Tampa here, all right, So obviously your four

684
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 3: and oh bet with Tom Brady, so I'm messing with it,

685
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 3: yet say something else. Brady has failed to cover as

686
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,399
Speaker 3: a home dog only twice in his career, against Peyton

687
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 3: Manning in two thousand and five and Joe Burrow this season.

688
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 2: All right, I think that last stat is a little misleading,

689
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,320
Speaker 2: because I bet Tom Brady hasn't been a home dog

690
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 2: more than seven or eight times over the last fifteen years.

691
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,760
Speaker 2: His Brady teams at home would not be underdogs very often.

692
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 2: I love Tampa here. We talked a lot about this

693
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 2: game in the Thursday Live show, and we've talked a

694
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 2: lot about it on TV, so I don't need to

695
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 2: get into it further. But Tampa plus two and a

696
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 2: half is our pick. We've got some we might have

697
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 2: some exotics. We definitely have an offer. We'll do all

698
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,799
Speaker 2: that as we wrap the Gambling Show next, What's right?

699
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:59,240
Speaker 2: All right? Welcome back? In final segment, Wildcard Weekend Gambling Show,

700
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 2: quick recap of our six picks. San Francisco laying nine

701
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 2: and a half, the Jags getting two and a half,

702
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 2: Miami getting thirteen and a half, Minnesota laying three, Baltimore

703
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 2: plus six and a half, and Tampa plus two and

704
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 2: a half, Baltimore plus eight and a half. I don't

705
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 2: know what I said, sorry about that. We have a

706
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 2: we we don't have a lock this week because we're

707
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 2: not doing locks anymore. I've decided we're done with locks.

708
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 2: With all our picks, we love them equally, we're not

709
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 2: doing locks. We do, however, have a couple exotics for you.

710
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 2: So you guys demand say, you guys have a teaser

711
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 2: that I think you want to suggest to me, but

712
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 2: that's go ahead.

713
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 3: And the seven point tease of the Bengals, Bills, Bucks,

714
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:49,400
Speaker 3: and Niners.

715
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 2: Okay, so teasing the Bengals, that would be teasing the

716
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 2: Bengals to a point and a half, Teasing the Bills

717
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 2: down to six and a half, teasing the Bucks up

718
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 2: to nine and a half and teasing the Niners down

719
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,760
Speaker 2: to two and a half. That's not a terrible teaser.

720
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna I'm not gonna lie. There's actually going

721
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 2: across key numbers. But it's a four team teaser. I'm

722
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 2: gonna stay away from that one. I'm not You're not no,

723
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 2: you're in on it.

724
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:19,399
Speaker 3: Yeah.

725
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 2: That makes me a little nervous for you, buddy. It

726
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:25,319
Speaker 2: also means we're gonna be have conflicting rooting interests on

727
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 2: some of this stuff, which I never enjoy watching. You know,

728
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 2: let don't put it in just yet. Okay, let's discuss.

729
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 2: Just don't put it in just yet. Here's the teaser.

730
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 2: I'm gonna make a two team, seven point Saturday teaser.

731
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,759
Speaker 2: We are teasing the Niners down to two and a

732
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 2: half from nine and a half, and we are teasing

733
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 2: the Jags up from two and a half to nine

734
00:41:52,280 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 2: and a half. So the key numbers of three, four, six, seven, eight,

735
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 2: all of it, we are coming through them in both directions.

736
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:03,799
Speaker 2: The Niners have to win by a field goal. The

737
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,919
Speaker 2: Jags just either have to win or lose by less

738
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 2: than ten that's the teaser we're doing. Also full transparency,

739
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 2: I did not get good line value on any of this, however,

740
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 2: and you know how I know I didn't get good

741
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 2: line value. Right now, my cash out option is for

742
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:28,320
Speaker 2: half of my original stake, which kind of sucks considering

743
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 2: the fact none of these games have kicked off.

744
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 3: But that always happens, so I get bad line value

745
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 3: all the time.

746
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 2: Man, it's the worst. So I Monday morning put this

747
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 2: bet in of my six picks this weekend, the Niners

748
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 2: minus ten, so I lost a half point of line value,

749
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 2: the Dolphins plus eleven so I lost two and a

750
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 2: half points of line value, the Jags on the money line,

751
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 2: Tampa on the money line Baltimore plus six and a

752
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 2: half lost two key points of line value, and the

753
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 2: Vikings minus three. That is sixty three to one. So

754
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:12,440
Speaker 2: though the Jags to win, the Bucks to win, the

755
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 2: Dolphins and Ravens, Vikings and Niners to all cover, that's

756
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:21,359
Speaker 2: my parlay. I have actually placed. What's the offer from

757
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:22,799
Speaker 2: you guys before we wrap it up?

758
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 3: Okay, this week's offer is the Jags money line or

759
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,839
Speaker 3: plus four fourteen Wait, yeah, plus one fourteen, Trevor over

760
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:33,760
Speaker 3: two hundred and forty eight passing yards San Francisco minus

761
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 3: sixteen and a half as a plus one ninety six

762
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 3: all this combined for uh plus what do you call that?

763
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 3: Eleven eleven to one? No? Eleven to one? Sorry?

764
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, be eleven to one plus eleven two hundred and

765
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 2: forty eight point five to be exactly two hundred and

766
00:43:51,560 --> 00:44:00,359
Speaker 2: forty nine passing yards. Demase, I'm taking that offer. Are

767
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 2: gonna blow out the Seahawks. The Jacks are obviously gonna win.

768
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 2: I'm a little nervous on the Trevor over because this

769
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 2: might be a big Travis etn game. But Trevor in

770
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,879
Speaker 2: his first playoff game, is gonna play well, especially after

771
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 2: being shaky against the Titans. Eleven to one, we accept

772
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:21,399
Speaker 2: that offer. What's up?

773
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 3: I gotta admit, man, I'm gonna take this offer. I've

774
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 3: never even taken the offer, and I'm the one always

775
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 3: giving it out. I'm never taking it once. And it's

776
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:29,240
Speaker 3: like it's.

777
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 2: Hit a few times. It's hit a few times. Our

778
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 2: offers have been good. We haven't really done a lot

779
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 2: with it, talked about it much because we're a serious

780
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,840
Speaker 2: operation and these are all wackied. Twelve to one twenty

781
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 2: to one long shots. But yeah, playoff weekend. We're in

782
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 2: on it, all right. We will see you guys on Monday.

783
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 2: Demonte real quick. Do you smell that smell?

784
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 3: Oh? In eighteen?

785
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 2: Do you know? Do you do?

786
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 3: You do?

787
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,439
Speaker 2: You know what that smells like? Smells like what six?

788
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 2: And zero? Smells like six and smells like six and

789
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 2: oh and will be more than halfway or almost halfway

790
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:10,360
Speaker 2: to our thirteen and oh dream yeah, so at least

791
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 2: if you do, if you don't end up going six

792
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 2: and oh, you will be zero and one for times

793
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 2: that you said smells like six and oh it's different.

794
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 2: It's usually it's five, and oh, now it's it's six

795
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 2: and oh, smells like six and oh. We'll see you

796
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 2: guys Monday. What's right, ye