WEBVTT - Maria Konnikova 0:00:00.520 --> 0:00:12.000 Hi, Welcome, Welcome, Welcome back to the Bomb Left podcast. 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:16.200 My guest today is the iconic sort of the best 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:20.360 seller of the Biggest Bluff. Thanks so much for having me, 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:24.320 Bob So in this COVID nineteen era. Are you playing 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:28.080 any online poker? I am. I actually just got back 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:30.720 from New Jersey a few weeks ago because I'm in 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:33.360 New York, where online poker is illegal, but it's legal 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:35.880 in New Jersey. So my husband and I rented an 0:00:35.920 --> 0:00:38.000 airbnb for two weeks so that I could play the 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:41.360 World Series online. Um, you have to be physically located 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:43.519 in New Jersey or about it to do that. So 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:46.600 I spent two weeks in a lovely studio on the 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:49.519 Jersey shore playing poker. And how did you do in 0:00:49.560 --> 0:00:52.960 the World Series? Um? I'm I was down by but 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:55.160 just by a few thousand dollars, which to me is 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:58.280 winning because when you are buying in for tens of 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:03.160 thousands of dollars, being just a few feels like a win. Okay, 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:07.319 so how much? Um, it's multiple events. There's an event 0:01:07.400 --> 0:01:10.040 every single day. So the way that they did it normally, 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:12.480 this doesn't happen right now. The World Series was supposed 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:15.480 to be happening in Las Vegas. Everyone was going to 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:17.640 be there. It was all going to be live. My 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:21.479 book UM, which came out on June, was originally coming 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:23.679 out the week before the main event, so it was 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:27.320 all planned out perfectly. And obviously you can plan all 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:31.440 you want, and then COVID happens and all of a sudden, 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:34.440 there's no World Series of Poker, there's no live poker period, 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:38.440 no no poker tournaments, and so they scrambled and they 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:42.000 decided to do a semblance of it online, and the 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:45.360 way they did it was to do thirty one events, 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:48.880 one every single day of July UM and the buying's 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:52.720 range from four hundred dollars for the lowest UM to 0:01:53.720 --> 0:01:57.480 around four thousand dollars for for the highest and you 0:01:57.520 --> 0:02:01.040 can re buy into most of the events. Then they moved. 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:03.640 As of August first, it's still going on, but now 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:07.400 it's on an international platform g G Poker. So I 0:02:07.480 --> 0:02:09.239 was planning to go to Canada, but the border is 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:13.519 closed because I wouldn't let us in either. UM. So unfortunately, 0:02:13.600 --> 0:02:15.640 I'm not playing, but a lot of people who are 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:18.920 outside of the United States are, and they're the buyans 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:21.120 can actually be higher and they're doing a mini main 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:23.560 event for five thousand dollars, but I will not be 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:26.320 taking part because I'm not in Canada. Well, is it 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:29.280 higher just because it's Canadian dollars? No? No, no, no, 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:32.120 this is all in US dollars. Okay, let's just go 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:35.680 a little slower for the uninitiated. How does the World 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:38.200 Series of Poker work? How do they come up with 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:42.560 the ultimate Champion? So the World Series of Poker is 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:46.040 actually it's a series, so there are lots of events. 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:49.680 So normally for about a month and a half, poker 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:52.520 players from all over the world come to Las Vegas 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:56.040 and play a number of tournaments. And when people talk 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:58.520 about the World Series of Poker, they're usually just thinking 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:01.760 about the main event, which is the single most important one. 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:05.760 It's a ten dollar buying and it determines the World champion. 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:09.120 It determines who the World Champion of Poker is for 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:12.720 that year. And so normally people just think, who don't 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:15.200 play poker, just think the World Series that one tournament, 0:03:15.440 --> 0:03:18.120 but that's just the pinnacle. That's the last tournament of 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:21.080 the series. And people can play what's called side events, 0:03:21.080 --> 0:03:24.760 but you can also win bracelets. Bracelets a bracelet is 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:26.800 what you win when you win a World Series of 0:03:26.800 --> 0:03:29.959 Poker title. But if you win a bracelet in anything 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:32.760 other than the main event, you're just a bracelet winner. 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.720 You're not the world champion. Okay, to play in the 0:03:35.720 --> 0:03:37.960 main event, you have to qualify in one of these 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:41.720 other events. They're completely independent. As long as you've got 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:44.800 ten grand you can play. And have you played in 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:47.640 the main event? I have. I've played in it multiple 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:51.600 times and done. Um the first year, this is the 0:03:51.640 --> 0:03:53.640 opening scene of my book. I came down with a 0:03:53.680 --> 0:03:58.200 migraine on the first day and spent the better part 0:03:58.200 --> 0:04:00.240 of the second half of the day throwing up on 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:03.240 the bathroom floor of the Lovely Rio Hotel and Casino. 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:06.440 I did not do well. I made Day two and 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:09.920 then probably busted. The next year, I cashed. I actually 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:13.960 came in the top I don't remember, but it was 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:18.119 maybe top five hundred, top six hundred players, but out 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:21.040 of tens of thousands, So I felt pretty good about myself. 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:24.480 And do you like playing poker? I do? I mean 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:26.880 I used to not. I didn't know anything about poker 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:29.200 um as of you know, if you and I were 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:33.440 having this conversation five years ago, Um, I wouldn't have 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:37.160 known what poker is. Really. The only exposure I had 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:40.320 had to poker was Rounders, UM, which I thought was 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:42.599 a great movie, and I thought Matt Damon did a 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:46.080 wonderful job, and I really loved Teddy KGB. And that was, 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:48.800 seriously the only poker I had ever seen. I didn't 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:50.400 know how many cars were in a deck. I had 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:53.679 zero interest in the game whatsoever. I'm not a games player. 0:04:53.880 --> 0:04:56.080 I grew up in a household that reads books. We 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:58.160 didn't even have a TV when I was growing up, 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:01.560 so I just grew up with lots and lots of bookshelves, 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:04.680 and for entertainment in the evenings, we read or my 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:07.920 parents read to us. And there wasn't even a deck 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:11.320 of cards around, no board games, no chest, nothing like that. 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:15.000 And so, like I said, five years ago, if you 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:17.560 and I were talking, I would have laughed if you said, 0:05:17.640 --> 0:05:19.880 did you know that one day you're going to play 0:05:19.920 --> 0:05:24.400 poker professionally? Um. I got into it as a book 0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:28.800 project because I became fascinated by the notion of luck 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:31.039 and the role that luck plays in our lives. So 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:33.120 I came to it from from the side, from a 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:35.719 very different angle but I did fall in love with 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:39.000 the game and found that it taught me much more 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:43.960 about life than I thought possible, and I'm still learning. 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:47.560 I think it's such a beautiful game that really challenges 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:51.760 you on a constant level. Um. And to me, the 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:55.920 best things in life are the ones that force you 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:58.960 to grow, force you to become a better version of yourself, 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:02.280 constantly force you to think better. Are the things that 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:04.640 don't let you plateau and don't let you just kind 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:06.920 of past through. And to me, one of those things 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:12.839 is poker. Okay, forgetting the number of what you learned psychologically, etcetera. 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:15.159 How long did it take you to master the game? 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:17.960 To understand what the game was? I'm talking about on 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:21.000 the most raw level. If you're sitting there with someone 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:24.000 who literally knows nothing but doesn't know their fifty two 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:26.080 cards in a deck, how long would it take them 0:06:26.120 --> 0:06:30.040 to understand the game? Well, it depends on what you mean. 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:33.320 If you mean learn the rules, not long at all. 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.320 Within a week, we can have you playing and knowing 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:39.440 exactly what it's going on in terms of the rules. Um. 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:43.240 If you're talking about really understanding the game. Um. My 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:45.640 coach Eric Seidel is one of the best players in 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:48.520 the world and has been playing since the eighties and 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:51.120 winning since the eighties. And if you ask him, he'd 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:53.360 say that he still doesn't understand it and he still 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:56.880 hasn't mastered it. So you've got those two extremes. Okay, 0:06:56.920 --> 0:06:58.920 let's go back to the beginning, as you say, five 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:00.760 years ago, when you didn't even know how to play 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:03.760 at hand. What was the motivation for writing the book. 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:08.800 I went through a period in my life where nothing 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:12.800 seemed to go right. I became sick, and no one 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:15.840 knew what was wrong. It was an autoimmune condition, but 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:20.040 ideopathic was the was the final diagnosis, which means we 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:24.400 really have no idea of unknown origin for being specific. 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:28.120 And I just became allergic to everything. My skin became 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:32.280 allergic to everything. I couldn't go outside oftentimes because I 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:35.240 was just erupt in hives whenever anything touched my body. 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:39.920 I mean by a in hives, I mean face, neck, body, everything. 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:43.080 It was painful to put on clothes, and so I 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:45.080 had lots of time to think about things because I 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:48.480 was at home, not not able to do anything. On 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:51.400 massive doses of steroids. As people tried to figure out 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:53.920 what was wrong and get this under control. And at 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:55.800 the same time as this is happening and I'm trying 0:07:55.800 --> 0:07:58.520 to figure out what's wrong with me, my grandmother dies. 0:07:58.960 --> 0:08:03.200 And she wasn't sick or anything like that, totally independent, healthy, 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:05.480 living by herself. She just slipped in the middle of 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:07.040 the night. I think she was going up to go 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:08.920 to the bathroom and she hit her head and didn't 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:11.800 wake up. And it was one of these things where 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:13.960 you realize, you know, it's just an accident. You could 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:18.560 happen to anyone and you can't plan for it, and 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:21.720 we didn't without her being sick, no one said goodbye, 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:25.040 you know, we just had no idea. And my husband 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:27.400 lest his job, my mom lost her job. Just all 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:29.920 of these things kept happening, one right after the other, 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:36.320 and it made me stop and just really realize how 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:39.920 important luck is. That when things are going well, we 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:42.199 we like to take credit. So often we say, oh, 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:44.439 you know, I I've worked really hard. You know, I've 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:48.560 been working towards this, um I've earned this. And the 0:08:48.600 --> 0:08:50.600 truth is, sure, you need to work hard, but you 0:08:50.640 --> 0:08:53.560 also need to get lucky, and things have to go 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:56.480 your way, and luck has to come together in a 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:58.280 lot of different ways. And there's so many things that 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:01.559 are just beyond us, and someone else might have worked 0:09:01.559 --> 0:09:03.439 just as hard but not gotten lucky and not be 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:06.360 where we are. And I wanted to write about that 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:10.800 and explore it and figure out a way to learn 0:09:10.840 --> 0:09:13.480 to tell the difference between skill and chance, between the 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:17.280 things we control and the things we don't. And when 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:23.520 I started reading about all of these different elements, I 0:09:23.600 --> 0:09:26.319 came across game theory, which is an interesting framework for 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:30.120 looking at chance, and learned when I started reading the 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:33.000 foundational text of game theory, the Theory of Games and 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:37.360 Economic Behavior, that John von Neuman, who's the father of 0:09:37.400 --> 0:09:39.600 game theory and also one of the geniuses of the 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:42.720 twentieth century, um one of the fathers of the computer. 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:44.920 So you and I would be sitting here talking right 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:47.160 now if it weren't for him. That he was a 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:50.120 poker player, and that poker was the origin of game theory, 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:55.520 that he actually believed that solving poker would give you 0:09:55.559 --> 0:10:00.600 a rubric for looking at life's most complicated decisions, and 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.560 he the way he described it really intrigued me. It 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:09.000 seemed that poker might be a way to tease the 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:11.280 part all of these different themes I was thinking about. 0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:15.679 So I started reading about poker a little bit, a 0:10:15.720 --> 0:10:18.600 little bit slower. So all these all these bad things 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:22.880 are happening. What makes you pick up the game theory book? 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:26.040 I started reading whenever I knew that I wanted to 0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:29.240 write my next book about luck and about skill versus chance. 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:33.640 That is not a book. That's just a question, philosophical enquiry. 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:37.200 It ain't a nonfiction narrative. Um. You need a story 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:39.880 for any book. You need a way in Um what 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.280 I do at the beginning of any project. It doesn't 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:45.120 matter how long or short I might be writing. Uh 0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:48.240 often I might be writing a New Yorker piece or 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:52.040 a book. I read a lot. I think that writers 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:55.840 need to first and foremost be readers. And for everything 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:59.560 I write, I've read thousands and thousands of words more 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:04.280 that I've written. And I just started reading everything I 0:11:04.320 --> 0:11:06.600 could find that had to do with luck and had 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:08.959 to do with chance. And if you're reading about chance, 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:11.720 game theory comes up. Because game theory is one of 0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:14.880 the foremost ways of looking at chance. It's one of 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:18.000 the foremost economic theories of the twentieth century, and it 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:22.960 teaches you about thinking probabilistically. It teaches you how to 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:26.440 make decisions in uncertain environments. And I knew this. I 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:28.880 have a PhD in psychology, so I knew that game 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:30.560 theory is where I went. For those who are not 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:34.480 up to speed, what exactly is game theory? Game theory 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:37.160 is just a way of looking at the world where 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:42.120 you try to figure out, how do I act in 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:45.199 a way that no one else can exploit or take 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:49.280 advantage of my decision? That's it. Okay, give us a 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.520 couple of exact, non poker examples where game theory would 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:56.160 come into play. Nuclear war, that's actually that was mon 0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:59.360 Nouman's example. He thought that solving poker would help you 0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:02.520 avoid nucle your war. If you're trying to figure out 0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:06.080 whether your opponent Cuban missile crisis that actually happened, that's 0:12:06.120 --> 0:12:08.800 game theory. What is Kruschev going to do? What is 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:11.600 Jeff k gonna do? How far can we push them? 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:13.960 How far is he going to do? Go? Is he 0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:19.040 actually going to press the proverbial red button and fire missiles? 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:23.280 Is he bluffing? So this is a perfect quintessential game 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:26.920 theoretical example. How can you gather information to try to 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:30.679 figure out what the payoff matrix and game theories speak 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:33.920 looks like, how can you gather information to figure out 0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:37.920 how we can get to a point in the matrix 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:41.840 where neither one of us has any incentive to deviate? 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:44.760 How can I figure out if he's bluffing or not? 0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:47.760 How can I figure out how far he's willing to go? 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:50.000 And in order to do that, you need to input 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.720 a lot of things into that mental model. This is 0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:56.400 why game theory isn't just about math. It is about math, 0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.120 but it's also about psychology. It's about trying to put 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:03.960 numbers in probably abilities, on human emotions, on human actions, 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:09.040 on human decisions. And that's why von Neuman turned to poker, 0:13:09.440 --> 0:13:12.160 and that's why game theory can give you an approximation. 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:16.559 But it's just an approximation. Everything in life is an approximation. 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:20.160 He realized that you can't solve anything, So let me 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:24.640 just you ask let me answer your question. So, if 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:27.079 you think about something like a Nash equilibrium, which is 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:31.199 when you actually find that square where no one deviates, 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:35.000 it exists in theory, but in practice it's almost impossible 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:39.240 to reach that square because people are people, and you 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:43.800 can think that you understand them, but Ultimately, there's always 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:46.080 the chance that you don't UM, and so it's a 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:51.360 probabilistic answer. It's not a definitive answer. Well, in game theory, 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:54.320 is there a specific paradigm or is it as simple 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:58.280 as you say, we're gathering information talking about the nouns 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:01.959 and the unknowns. What do you mean by that? Specifically? 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:04.360 You talked about the matrix? What did you know you 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.280 talk about game theory. It's like, I'm about the matrix 0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:11.439 the movie. So you actually you actually draw a matrix. 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:14.600 So you have Bob on one side and you have 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.520 Maria on the other, and in the simplest one, you 0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:21.400 have four squares. Let's say yes, no, yes, no. And 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:25.400 if we're trying to figure out what will Bob and Maria, 0:14:25.720 --> 0:14:27.880 you know, what will their payoffs look like in the 0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:30.880 four little squares of that matrix? So if both of 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.720 them say yes, then agree to whatever proposition. UM, let's 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:37.640 say you know that. Let's say we're choosing ice cream 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.360 and we're trying to and if you and I agree 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:43.160 on an ice cream flavor, we both get sent gallons 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:45.520 of this ice cream flavor. We can't talk to each 0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:48.680 other beforehand. Obviously, in real life, you can but in 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:53.080 your so ideally you coordinate, but if you can't coordinate, 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:54.800 So if you and I both come up with the 0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:58.000 same flavor, we get into the yes yes box, right, 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:00.880 and our payoff there. Let's say it's of four is 0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:05.000 four and four. We're both really really happy, right if 0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:07.920 But let's say you and I or actually it might 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:09.960 not be four and for because what if our two 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:13.120 flavors are different. What if I know that your favorite 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:17.120 flavors chocolate, My favorite flavor is vanilla, but I want 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.880 some ice cream rather than not having any ice cream. 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.080 And so if I know your chocolate, and I don't 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:25.320 think that you know that I like vanilla, I might 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:27.800 say chocolate. So we both get into that box. But 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:30.560 it's a four for you and it's actually one for me. Right, 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:34.360 So now now it changes, so you just get different 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.640 ice cream flavors. So let's say now we're in the 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:39.840 yes no, you stay chocolate, but I say vanilla. Well, 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:42.440 all of a sudden, we're in a different box, and 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:44.960 we're in a box where your payoff is lower in 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:46.840 mine is higher, and we need to try to figure 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:48.640 out how do we get to the box where we 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.360 both kind of maximize it. Maybe both of us kind 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.040 of like vanilla, it's in the middle. Maybe vanilla would 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:56.160 be a three for both of us. That would be great, 0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.480 not vanilla, sorry strawberry, but we need a new flavor. 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:02.080 So maybe strawberries actually second best for both of us. 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:05.000 So strawberries are three for you and a three for me, Well, 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.520 then maybe we should try to coordinate on strawberry, right, 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:11.040 because that's actually going to give us the most the 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:14.480 best optimal mutual payoff because the total of that box 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:18.280 is six, whereas your chocolate my vanilla boxes just five. Right, 0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:20.720 So we can start playing like that, and then you 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:22.920 have to try to figure out Okay, well, how are 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:25.400 you thinking? How am I thinking? I use the type 0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:27.720 of person who's gonna want to coordinate on strawberry if 0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:30.440 I can't see you or talk to you, um, and 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:32.600 should I risk it? Or are you the kind of 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:34.920 person who's just gonna go chocolate all the way you're 0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.840 going to You're going to betray me, so to speak. 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:40.200 So we can't coordinate because you want that chocolate and 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:41.960 you don't care if I don't get any ice cream. 0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.360 So that's a very silly example, but you can that's 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:47.440 kind of how you. That's how you that's how you 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:51.720 look at the matrix. You assign different ways well articulated. 0:16:52.120 --> 0:16:54.880 So you're reading the book and he mentions poker. Does 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.360 a lightbulb go off in your head? Or is it 0:16:57.400 --> 0:17:02.400 an evolutionary process to decide to write a book? Um, 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.200 it's both. At the beginning, it wasn't a light bulb. 0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:08.040 When I read von Neuman, I became intrigued by poker, 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:11.200 and I thought, huh, this is interesting. And then when 0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:13.960 I started reading about poker, all I did that I 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:16.280 had zero poker books in the house, so I just 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:19.440 googled poker and started reading a little bit about it online. 0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:23.320 That's when a light bulb went off, when I just thought, Hey, 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:26.960 this game seems really interesting and it actually seems to 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:30.440 get out a lot of these things that I'm curious about. 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:33.800 It has an element of skill, it has an element 0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:37.159 of chance. Von Neumann thinks that it actually has the 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:39.840 perfect balance of skill and chance to make it a 0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:42.720 good analogy for life. I don't know much about it, 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:44.800 but if I even thinks so, it's good enough for me. 0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:47.640 I mean, the guy's brilliant. So that's when a lightbulb 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:49.679 moment actually went off, and I thought this could be it. 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:53.680 And right away I actually just emailed my agent and said, hey, 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:56.159 what do you think does this seem like a good idea? 0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:59.720 And at this point we've been going back and forth 0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:03.119 for six months and she'd been saying no to every 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:05.800 single thing I've proposed, and this one she said that 0:18:05.880 --> 0:18:09.159 the sounds promising. See what you can find. So so 0:18:09.240 --> 0:18:17.800 that was the start of the book. So what what 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:21.800 was the process of actually selling the book? So first, 0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:26.680 and this was true of all of my books. Um, 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:29.240 I feel very very strongly that you need to work 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.800 very hard on your proposal, no matter how many books 0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:36.960 you've written, and no matter what your reputation is, because 0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:39.720 you're doing it not just for selling it. You're doing 0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:42.280 it for you because it helps you think through the 0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:44.760 whole thing. It helps you figure out whether this is 0:18:44.800 --> 0:18:46.880 actually going to work as a book, whether it's going 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:49.520 to be a good story. So it's a really good exercise. 0:18:49.560 --> 0:18:52.400 And a lot of the proposal is actually writing scenes 0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:55.120 and writing parts of chapters to try to figure this out. 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:59.399 And so I actually, before I sold the book, I 0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:03.119 spent putiple months playing. So I approached Eric Sidell, one 0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:05.240 of the greatest poker players in the world who agreed 0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:07.960 to become my coach. And I actually started on my 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:11.359 journey before selling the book because I needed material for 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.080 the proposal. I needed to see if it was going 0:19:14.119 --> 0:19:16.679 to work. I needed to see whether the game was 0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:19.679 actually going to fulfill its promise of teaching me what 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.000 I wanted to learn. I wanted to see if I 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:24.080 liked it. I mean, I didn't want to sell a 0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:26.720 book and then go play poker and realize that it 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:29.359 made me sick and that I absolutely hated it and 0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.040 that it bore me to tears. It's going to be 0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:34.440 multiple years of my life. Any book is multiple years 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:38.080 of your life, so you better you better think hard 0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:41.160 and pick something that's right for you. Um. And so 0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:44.640 the process looked like me starting to learn to play 0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:46.840 with Eric. I went to Vegas. I even made my 0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:51.640 first a little bit slower, a little bit slower told 0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:55.000 the book. Yet this stuff be doing because you've already 0:19:55.000 --> 0:19:59.480 met Eric Seidell. Okay, how did you meet Eric and 0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:02.480 how did you approach him? I'm a journalist. I cold 0:20:02.520 --> 0:20:06.600 called him. I had no connection to him whatsoever. I 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:09.679 followed him on Twitter and sent him a message. And 0:20:09.720 --> 0:20:13.639 the reason that I chose him was a very sophisticated reason. 0:20:13.760 --> 0:20:16.960 I did a Google search of best poker buyers of 0:20:17.000 --> 0:20:20.560 all time, and his name came up in multiple lists, 0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:23.520 and I did some research because his name wasn't the 0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:25.880 only one who came in, and he seemed to check 0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:29.200 the most of my boxes. I wanted someone who was older, 0:20:29.359 --> 0:20:32.600 who had been around a while, and who had a 0:20:32.760 --> 0:20:36.800 more broad approach to the game. I didn't want someone 0:20:36.800 --> 0:20:39.880 who was young and just starting out and just had 0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:43.959 of the mathematical stuff that's the hot ticket today. I 0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:47.760 wanted someone who could really speak to my psychology background, 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:51.119 so that was number one. So I needed someone from 0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:53.920 from from the past, so to speak. But I wanted 0:20:53.920 --> 0:20:56.320 someone who was still relevant. And Eric was actually the 0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.520 only person who checks both of those boxes, who was 0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:01.160 winning in the eighties and who was a winning today. 0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:04.399 I mean, that just doesn't happen. Most poker players careers 0:21:04.440 --> 0:21:07.800 are much shorter, and they don't they can't keep performing 0:21:07.840 --> 0:21:10.920 at the same high level. Then I looked at videos. 0:21:10.960 --> 0:21:13.439 He seemed like a nice guy. He's very quiet, seemed 0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:15.760 very self effacing, very humble, and a lot of the 0:21:15.800 --> 0:21:20.320 other poker players were out there like in your face, screaming, swearing, yelling, 0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:24.399 throwing temper tantrums, you know, throwing cards and trips in 0:21:24.400 --> 0:21:26.880 the air. And Eric was just kind of sitting there quietly, 0:21:26.920 --> 0:21:29.040