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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Spreading the court.

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Speaker 2: Ten seconds remaining, so just go show up to the basket.

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Speaker 2: Under the basket, it's the true for the wind.

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Speaker 3: God, they go a miracle. I'm just up the water.

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Speaker 2: Hit that one from the parking lot. Welcome everyone, I

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Speaker 2: hope you all are fired up, ready to go for

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Speaker 2: the single best weekend of college basketball for the whole season.

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Speaker 2: That's right. It is around sixty four the first round

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Speaker 2: of the NCAA Tournament, of course on Saturday and Sunday

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Speaker 2: second round, so we've got a boatload of games, and

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Speaker 2: that means we're gonna have a boatload of player props.

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Speaker 2: So right now you can find my March Madness betting

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Speaker 2: guide to give and guide to March Madness in the

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Speaker 2: Action app. You can also find Sean Kerners, my co host,

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Speaker 2: right here, my compadre his full bracket breakdown. My bracket

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Speaker 2: breakdown will be coming out later tonight on the Action

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Speaker 2: Network as well. But right now, right now, it's all

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Speaker 2: about those player props. We're gonna be looking at the

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Speaker 2: first round of games, so Thursday and Friday games, most

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Speaker 2: of our picks will be for Thursdays. I think there

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Speaker 2: is one Friday game pick among our picks. Three picks

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Speaker 2: from Sean, three picks from me. But we do know

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Speaker 2: these lines. They can be tough to find and they

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Speaker 2: move quick. So we're gonna be dropping quick slip links

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Speaker 2: in the YouTube chat so you can instantly add each

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Speaker 2: pick to your betting slip quickly and seamlessly before we

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Speaker 2: get to the picks. Very important order of business. March

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Speaker 2: is the best month of the year, not just for sports,

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Speaker 2: but also forgetting the best deal on Action Pro. You

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Speaker 2: can get Action Pro for just over five dollars a

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Speaker 2: month for the entire year, and for the NCAA tournament

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Speaker 2: you'll get Sean Kerner's bracket simulations, our player prop projections,

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Speaker 2: and pick alerts thirty minutes before everyone else. It's also

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Speaker 2: very important for player props this time of year because

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Speaker 2: of the aforementioned quick line movement. So go to actionnetwork

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Speaker 2: dot com slash March right now to get on board.

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Speaker 2: All right, Like I said, Sean and I have three

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Speaker 2: picks each. We're going to be starting for me in

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Speaker 2: the Louisville versus Creighton game. So I'm just gonna give

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Speaker 2: everybody a minute to kind of flip over to Louisville

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Speaker 2: versus Creighton, and actually my second pick Wilse will be

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Speaker 2: from this game, but we're gonna get the Sean's pick next.

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Speaker 2: So Louisville versus Crayton, I'm gonna go to a rebound

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Speaker 2: prop and I'm going to take James Scott for Louisville

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Speaker 2: over five and a half rebounds. You can get that

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Speaker 2: even money at BETMGM. Love this spot here because Creighton

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Speaker 2: launches three pointers at the tenth highest rate. Of course,

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Speaker 2: those have a lower chance of being made than shots

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Speaker 2: taken inside right, so just overall going to be more

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Speaker 2: missed shots just because Creighton's launching them from so far out.

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Speaker 2: And Creighton is absolutely terrible on the offensive glass. They

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Speaker 2: ranked two hundred and fiftieth in adjusted offensive rebound percentage.

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Speaker 2: You know, to find a similar set of games here,

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Speaker 2: I went and looked at Duke, who launches threes at

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Speaker 2: the fifty first highest rate. Now Creighton's at the tenth highest,

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Speaker 2: So the next highest rate opponent Louisville's face was Duke

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Speaker 2: at the fifty first highest rate. Well, Scott had ten

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Speaker 2: rebounds in those two games, so five per game, and

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Speaker 2: I was in twenty nine minutes per game, and we're

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Speaker 2: rejecting right at twenty nine minutes. But Duke is fifteenth

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Speaker 2: in offensive rebounding percentage. I mentioned, Creighton is two hundred

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Speaker 2: and fiftieth, so just you know, and Duke's also a

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Speaker 2: better shooting team than Creighton, so a lot more misshots

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Speaker 2: and a lot more you know, defensive rebound opportunities here

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Speaker 2: for Scott. Creighton also fouls at the lowest rate and

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Speaker 2: their bottom five and two and over rate. That means

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Speaker 2: more offensive possessions, will field end and field goal attempts

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Speaker 2: for Louisville, which also you know, increases his offensive rebounding chances.

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Speaker 2: So I don't mind if you want to ladder this.

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Speaker 2: You know, can sprinkle seven plus at two to one

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Speaker 2: or eight plus at plus three twenty at DraftKings. I

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Speaker 2: really like that one because we have this closer to

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Speaker 2: a coin flip for eight or more rebounds. We're projecting

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Speaker 2: a medium of seven and a half. So Sean, that's

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Speaker 2: my first one. What do you got for your first

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Speaker 2: player prop?

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Speaker 4: My first prop's going to be in this Houston game,

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Speaker 4: So I'll give everybody a second to pull up that matchup.

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Speaker 4: You know, I'm still recovering from that Valentino Pinito disaster

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Speaker 4: from yesterday. Tried to have some fun and take an

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Speaker 4: over rebound prop. I'm going the other way here. I'm

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Speaker 4: going with a Nolan Hickmans special. So I'm going with L. J.

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Speaker 4: Cryer of Houston to stay under two and a half

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Speaker 4: half boards. You can get it at minus one oh

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Speaker 4: five right now. You know, I was on criers under

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Speaker 4: two and a half last game against Arizona. He had

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Speaker 4: two at half times, so it's kind of scary. But

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Speaker 4: of course he had zero the rest of the way,

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Speaker 4: and the two rebounds he did get, we're kind of fluky.

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Speaker 4: One of them went like fifty feet into the air

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Speaker 4: and just so happened to land right in Cryer's lap,

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Speaker 4: and another one the ball like squirted out and he

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Speaker 4: accidentally got a rebound that way. So anytime he gets

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Speaker 4: a rebound, it's kind of fluky. So even if he

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Speaker 4: kind of gets ahead of a pace, it's always nice

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Speaker 4: knowing he could get zero the rest of the way.

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Speaker 4: Hence the Nolan Hickbin special. But you know this game

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Speaker 4: is also a potential blowout. You know, Houston is nearly

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Speaker 4: thirty point favorites against Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, so we

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Speaker 4: could see Crier, you know, play fewer minutes as a result.

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Speaker 4: Typically he's in there most of the game. You know,

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Speaker 4: we're projecting for thirty five thirty six minutes. But in

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Speaker 4: the twelve games where Houston you know, won by over

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Speaker 4: twenty points and he played fewer minutes, you know, he

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Speaker 4: stayed under two and a half boards eighty three percent

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Speaker 4: of the time. And it's kind of one of those

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Speaker 4: things where you know, if Edwardsville hangs around, that's probably

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Speaker 4: because they're making shots and there's less rebound opportunities than usual.

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Speaker 4: If they're getting blown out and there's more rebound opportunities,

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Speaker 4: Krayer will get out of the game earlier. So it

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Speaker 4: kind of caps his ceiling in this spot. So you know,

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Speaker 4: I think his most like outcome is going to be

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Speaker 4: the one to two rebound range. We're projecting him culture

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Speaker 4: at two point two boards here with about a sixty

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Speaker 4: two percent chance he stays under two and a half

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Speaker 4: boards here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you gotta love these Nolan Hickman specials. For those

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Speaker 2: of you who don't know what we mean by that,

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Speaker 2: Nolan Hickman, a guard for Gonzaga, and you know Gonzaga,

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Speaker 2: they tend to play kind of bad opponents in conference,

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Speaker 2: but when they do play up when they play either

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Speaker 2: Same Mary's or San Francisco or in the tournament. You know,

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Speaker 2: Nolan Hickman's rebound rate is so low that we just

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Speaker 2: love taking his unders there and so even if he

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Speaker 2: gets one or two early on, I never sweat it.

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Speaker 2: So same thing here with Crier. We we've got a

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Speaker 2: Nolan Hickman rebound rate type situation, all right. So those

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Speaker 2: are our first picks. I'll be giving my second bet,

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Speaker 2: and like I said, it is going back to that

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Speaker 2: Louisville Creighton game. I have a second one here. And

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Speaker 2: if you guys know me, if you're in the Action

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Speaker 2: Network Discord, by the way, join the Action Network Discord

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Speaker 2: Discord dot gg slash Action Network if you haven't. We

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Speaker 2: always also try to drop our picks in there and

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Speaker 2: talk and sweat the games with everybody in chat. So

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Speaker 2: make sure you're there. But you know, I'm not a

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Speaker 2: big fan if you're in the Action Network Discord of

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Speaker 2: points props, but I'm going with the points prop here.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna take Chucky Hepburn for Louisville under sixteen and

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Speaker 2: a half points. You can get that minus one fourteen

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Speaker 2: at fan duel, And I think this is a stylistic

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Speaker 2: nightmare for Chucky Hepburn, who relies on the free throw line,

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Speaker 2: you know, scoring at the free throw line for thirty

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Speaker 2: percent of his scoring output. And that's not good when

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Speaker 2: you're facing Creighton, who allows the lowest free throw rate

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Speaker 2: in all of college basketball. So if he's not scoring

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Speaker 2: at the line, how else is Hepburn scoring. Well, it's

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Speaker 2: about fifty to fifty from inside and from outside. But

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Speaker 2: Creighton tends to allow more inside than they do outside

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Speaker 2: simply because they're a team that loves to guard the

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Speaker 2: high efficiency shots. So their culk drop is designed to

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Speaker 2: eliminate you know, those rim and three type shots that

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Speaker 2: the three pointers and the shots at the rim, which

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Speaker 2: is exactly what Hepburn does. He takes a lot of

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Speaker 2: threes and he drives in and that's how he gets

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Speaker 2: his you know, to the line. A lot is drawing

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Speaker 2: fouls while driving get into the rim. Well, Creighton loves

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Speaker 2: to take that away, so that takes away exactly Chucky

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Speaker 2: Hepburn's strengths here. So I think we'll see some more

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Speaker 2: mid range jumpers from Louisville, which won't necessarily come for Hepburn.

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Speaker 2: I think that might funnel more scoring to Javon Hadley

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Speaker 2: or Terrence Edwards. So you know, if you're kind of

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Speaker 2: making some mental notes here, you might be thinking about

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Speaker 2: some same game parlay type stuff here. But I don't

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Speaker 2: think our projections are fully capturing the impact that you

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Speaker 2: know Creyton has here on Hepburn. We're projecting a median

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Speaker 2: of fifteen and a half points, but I think it

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Speaker 2: should be even lower because our projections aren't quite granular

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Speaker 2: enough to capture the nuances of where these shots come

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Speaker 2: from and at what rates. So I think Hepburn should

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Speaker 2: be lower than fifteen and a half in our projection

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Speaker 2: as the median. You know, again, if we look at

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Speaker 2: Duke here, which is maybe one of the best comparable

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Speaker 2: defenses to Louisville, not not a great comparison, but about

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Speaker 2: as good as there is. He had eight and fourteen

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Speaker 2: points in two games against Duke. Right, Duke also fouls

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Speaker 2: at a low rate and also tends to force teams

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Speaker 2: to shoot inside a little bit more So I think

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Speaker 2: that fourteen number is probably about where I'd put Hepburn's

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Speaker 2: median at so I love getting under sixteen and a

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Speaker 2: half sean time for your second pig.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so my next one is gonna be in this

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Speaker 4: high Point game, So I'll give everybody a second to

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Speaker 4: get that matchup again. Just due to you know, Pinito's

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Speaker 4: performance yesterday, I'm not having any fun, no more overs

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Speaker 4: for me, at least short term. So I'm going you

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Speaker 4: know another gross under here, and it's Keza Jiffa of

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Speaker 4: High Point. To go under two and a half assists,

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Speaker 4: you can get even money right now. And you know

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Speaker 4: Jeffa has averaged two point five assists per game, but

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Speaker 4: he stayed under two and a half sixty three percent

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Speaker 4: of the time. And you know High Point has averaged

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Speaker 4: eighty three points in those games, but they're implied total

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Speaker 4: here against Perdue is around seventy three, so you know,

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Speaker 4: roughly ten points lower than their season average. So there's

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Speaker 4: going to be fewer assists potentially to go around for Jiffa.

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Speaker 4: And in the thirteen games this season where High Point

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Speaker 4: has scored less than eighty points, jeff that is averaging

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Speaker 4: just two point one assists and stayed under two and

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Speaker 4: a half and nine of those thirteen games, which is

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Speaker 4: a very nice sixty nine percent hit rate, you know,

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Speaker 4: and he's their leading scorers. I think he should be

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Speaker 4: able to attack Purdue inside here. They tend to concede

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Speaker 4: a lot of two pointers, so could lead to him,

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Speaker 4: you know, shooting a little bit more and dishing it

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Speaker 4: out a little bit less, just based on the matchup.

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Speaker 4: So we're projecting closer to two point two assists here

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Speaker 4: with about a sixty two percent chance he stays under

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Speaker 4: two and a half assists.

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Speaker 2: So, Sean, I got a question for you. You know

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Speaker 2: that that image file of dot gif. Yeah, I guess

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Speaker 2: he would say it's a jiff, but I'm Giffin and

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Speaker 2: I would say it's a gift. So which one is correct?

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Speaker 4: Well, I don't know what's correct, but I've been saying

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Speaker 4: gif forever, And like I you pronounced his last name Jeffa.

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Speaker 4: That's the official you get the high point announcers guy,

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Speaker 4: that's how they say. But it's really tough to not

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Speaker 4: say Giffa just saying your name all day long. So

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Speaker 4: you know, that was really hard for me to do,

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Speaker 4: saying jeff.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for those of you behind the scenes who aren't

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Speaker 2: behind the scenes. He has a pronunciation guy packed in

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Speaker 2: here in this outline. So before we get to our

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Speaker 2: final picks once again, March is the best month of

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Speaker 2: the year, not just for sports, but also forgetting the

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Speaker 2: best deal on Action Pro. You can get Action Pro

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Speaker 2: for just over five dollars a month for the entire

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Speaker 2: year and for the NCAA tournament. Get Sean Kerner's bracket simulations,

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Speaker 2: my player props and projections as long as I should say,

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Speaker 2: as well as Sean's. We do them together and pick

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Speaker 2: alerts thirty minutes before everybody else. You know, you can

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Speaker 2: also watch these shows, so it's very important get it now.

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Speaker 2: Our projections will be there for every game for the

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Speaker 2: NCAA tournament. That means even beyond the picks that we

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Speaker 2: give out in the app or a discorder on these shows,

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Speaker 2: you know, there's even more player props that we are

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Speaker 2: showing value on from our projections. So go to actionnetwork

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Speaker 2: dot com slash March right now to get on board.

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Speaker 5: Head course shots and mascot sluzz a beta.

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Speaker 2: And so much.

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Speaker 3: Just keep geving disappearing freshman with a hot hand, shoots

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Speaker 3: and scores.

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Speaker 2: All right, fine, don't pick here, I am going rogue,

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Speaker 2: and I'm going to a Friday game. And I didn't

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Speaker 2: mean to, you know, go for a Friday game. I

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Speaker 2: was just checking some of our our tools, making sure

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Speaker 2: everything was in tip top shape, and I accidentally stumbled

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Speaker 2: on some value for a Friday game. So that's gonna

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Speaker 2: be the Alabama game here against Robert Morris and Sean

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Speaker 2: gave out the Nolan Hickman Special. Well, we've got another

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Speaker 2: Nolan Hickman special here for Mark Sears under four and

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Speaker 2: a half rebounds, you can get that minus one sixty

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Speaker 2: I think is the best out there, you know, minus

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Speaker 2: one sixty five at bet MGM. I am going to

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Speaker 2: do one point two units on this to win zero

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Speaker 2: point seventy five at bet three six five, so three

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Speaker 2: quarter unit to win that we were not doing, you know,

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Speaker 2: full one point six units to win one unit. So

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Speaker 2: I'm just gonna do a win three quarter unit here.

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Speaker 2: But in six games versus teams outside the the top

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Speaker 2: one hundred, when you adjust for location, Sears has had

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Speaker 2: a rebound log of three five, three, two zero and three. Well,

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Speaker 2: you know, in those six games, five of them stayed

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Speaker 2: under that four and a half number. And in fact,

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Speaker 2: you know all five of them would have stayed under

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Speaker 2: three and a half of those six, so that's pretty low,

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Speaker 2: you know, only averaging two point seven rebounds per game.

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Speaker 2: So he gets another non top one hundred location adjusted

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Speaker 2: team here in Robert Morris. And Robert Morris is actually

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Speaker 2: a good rebounding team. They rank sixty second in our

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Speaker 2: schedule adjusted rebound rates. So you know, when we adjust

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Speaker 2: for the fact that Robert Morris has played absolutely garbage opponents,

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Speaker 2: you know, that bumps them down from a top thirty

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Speaker 2: or so rebounding team into the into the sixties there,

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Speaker 2: So you know, there's still a very good rebounding team.

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Speaker 2: So they could sneak in a few rebounds. And I

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Speaker 2: was doing some spot checks right, like, they played Oakland

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Speaker 2: a couple times, who's inside our top one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty in schedule justed rebounding as well, and they out

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Speaker 2: rebound at Oakland across the two games. Robert Morris also

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Speaker 2: turns over the ball a lot, and they draw fouls

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Speaker 2: at a high rate, So offensively, they're giving up possessions

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Speaker 2: by turning it over where there's not going to be

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Speaker 2: a rebound, or they draw fouls and go to the

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Speaker 2: line and then they get to attempt high percentage free

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Speaker 2: throws and Sears as a guard. You know, with such

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Speaker 2: a low rebound rate, he's probably not going to be

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Speaker 2: factor factoring into any free throw rebounds as well, which

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Speaker 2: hurts him extra because he basically only grabs defensive rebounds.

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Speaker 2: Right his defensive rebound rate is around seven and a

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Speaker 2: half eight percent. His offensive rebound rate is below two percent.

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Speaker 2: So you know, if you can find an under three

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Speaker 2: and a half, I don't know if there are any

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Speaker 2: out there, but if you can take it at plus money,

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Speaker 2: we're projecting three and a half exactly with a seventy

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Speaker 2: two and a half percent chance he stays under four

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Speaker 2: and a half. So you know, minus one sixty might

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Speaker 2: seem like pay a lot juice. We have this at

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Speaker 2: like minus two sixty as fair value. So Mark Sears

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Speaker 2: under four and a half rebounds for a Friday game,

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Speaker 2: but I think we're going back to a Thursday game

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Speaker 2: for Seawn's third pickck.

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Speaker 4: I think that Nolan Hickman special is two and a

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Speaker 4: half rebounds, So you're getting one at four and a half.

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Speaker 4: That's pretty crazy. I'm going to go to this McNeice

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Speaker 4: Clemson matchup and this is an actual Nolan Hickman special,

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Speaker 4: my second one of the show, and it's DJ Richards

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Speaker 4: of McNeice under two and a half rebounds. It's actually

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Speaker 4: plus money right now, it's plus one. Ten game log

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Speaker 4: truthers will probably see that he's cleared this in four

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Speaker 4: straight games. Uh, and be honest over here, but you know,

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Speaker 4: taking a closer look, McNeice allowed just a forty two

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Speaker 4: effective fiegal rate over that stretch, which is the fourth

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Speaker 4: lowest rate in the country over the last four games,

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Speaker 4: you know, so there was way more potential rebounds to

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Speaker 4: go around than usual for them. And now they face Clemson,

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Speaker 4: which is, you know, a huge jump in terms of competition.

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Speaker 4: They're a top twenty five offense, good shooting team, good

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Speaker 4: rebounding team. And taking a look at Richard's you know,

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Speaker 4: full game log, not just the last four games. He

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Speaker 4: became the starter about twenty two games ago, and over

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Speaker 4: that stretch he's averaged two point four rebounds and stayed

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Speaker 4: under two and a half sixty four percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: So we're projecting him close are two point one here

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Speaker 4: with around a sixty five percent chance to stay under

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Speaker 4: two and a half. So just the fact that we're

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Speaker 4: also getting plus odds here makes me love this even more.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, So you know, we've essentially got fifty percent

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Speaker 2: of our picks here as Nolan Hickman Specials taking these

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Speaker 2: these guard unders on rebounds, we love them. We love

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Speaker 2: sweat and unders. Right, people want to root for overs,

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Speaker 2: We were for unders cause then we root for all

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Speaker 2: the under underlying factors, right the turnovers or get into

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Speaker 2: the foul and those kinds of things are things you

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Speaker 2: can root for when you are rooting for an under.

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Speaker 2: So those are our picks right now. I know Sean

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Speaker 2: and I will be in the Action Network discord giving

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Speaker 2: out more picks and tracking them in the Action Network app.

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Speaker 2: So if you want those pick alerts right away, once again,

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Speaker 2: make sure you sign up for Action Pro. But we

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Speaker 2: are going to be given you know, Like I said,

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Speaker 2: it plays out for tonight's games, and we'll definitely be

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Speaker 2: given more out throughout the rest of the day and

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Speaker 2: the week and the weekend as well as next weekend.

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Speaker 2: We're also going to be back here this time next

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Speaker 2: week with another player prop show for the Sweet sixteen

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Speaker 2: right here on the Action Network YouTube channels, So don't

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Speaker 2: miss that one. Same time, same place, Wednesday next week

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Speaker 2: as well. But that'll do it for our player. Propp

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Speaker 2: shoal four the round of sixty four five and c

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Speaker 2: doublea tournament for Sean Kerner. I'm Nick Giffon. We'll catch

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Speaker 2: y'all next week.

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Speaker 5: Head coorse shots and mad Scot Suzzer Beata show.

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Speaker 1: That shot must.

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Speaker 4: Keep cheering.

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Speaker 3: Disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and scores sack ses.

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Speaker 2: Say you're prior.

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Speaker 5: Oh no, no, mad, got a little madness in my eye,

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Speaker 5: Let me out my moment.

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Speaker 1: Jump Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

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Speaker 1: or someone you care has a gambling problem, help is

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Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 4: S