1
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,440
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

2
00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:13,039
Speaker 1: sixty five.

3
00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:14,800
Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.

4
00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:19,320
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

5
00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:24,880
Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Divisional Round Best Bets episode. This

6
00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:27,319
Speaker 1: is the episode where we will get feedback from the

7
00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,560
Speaker 1: wise guys who listen to the show. We will build

8
00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:34,440
Speaker 1: our money line underdog Parlay. We will get to our

9
00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:38,959
Speaker 1: fox hole in Big Balls Bet of the Week. We

10
00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:43,440
Speaker 1: will narrow down our favorite NFL picks, of which there

11
00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:48,440
Speaker 1: can only be four because there's only four games for

12
00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:52,800
Speaker 1: the entire NFL Playoffs slates. As our old pal Colin

13
00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:55,000
Speaker 1: Coward likes to say, there's a ce money out.

14
00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,000
Speaker 3: There, because there's a sea of money out there.

15
00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:58,840
Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,

16
00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:01,040
Speaker 1: you can check them out in the award winning Action

17
00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,520
Speaker 1: Network app by following the Favorites podcast. Let's bring in

18
00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,000
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, Micha and Padre my BFF

19
00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:11,320
Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter. Eto's how I'm in?

20
00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,360
Speaker 3: Hello, I shout how are we doing? Brother dude?

21
00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:15,640
Speaker 2: It's got check time.

22
00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:20,520
Speaker 1: We got seven games left Saturday Sunday.

23
00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:22,759
Speaker 2: I'm running out of.

24
00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,680
Speaker 1: Reasons to sit on the couch and say that I'm

25
00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,759
Speaker 1: working for days on end. I already feel lost about

26
00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,240
Speaker 1: Thursday nights. After this weekend, I don't know what I'm

27
00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,360
Speaker 1: going to do with myself. That's how I feel, poor, Chat.

28
00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:37,400
Speaker 3: I can help you if you need to.

29
00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:39,840
Speaker 4: The greatest excuse ever is coming up is the draft.

30
00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,600
Speaker 4: Be like, honey, I need to scout these quarterbacks for

31
00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,640
Speaker 4: the draft. I mean, there's no better time for nerds.

32
00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:45,920
Speaker 3: Right.

33
00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,360
Speaker 4: It's another reason to be like, Hey, I'm busy until April.

34
00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,040
Speaker 4: I gotta I really got to dive into this draft,

35
00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:51,880
Speaker 4: especially you got the number one pick, Chat, you got

36
00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:53,880
Speaker 4: to act like you're a scout for your own team.

37
00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,240
Speaker 3: You got you got a plethora of excuses.

38
00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,960
Speaker 2: Don't you look at to you going back to the plethora?

39
00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:00,560
Speaker 5: Wow?

40
00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:03,040
Speaker 3: Yeah? Did you give her a shout out? Lucy?

41
00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:04,800
Speaker 4: She's one of her favorite words? She was like, can

42
00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:06,559
Speaker 4: you please use it more often? It's like, I'll force

43
00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:07,080
Speaker 4: it in there.

44
00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:07,640
Speaker 2: Guy.

45
00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,160
Speaker 1: You know eventually you're gonna have to flip the page

46
00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:11,800
Speaker 1: on your word of the calendar.

47
00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, just you can't just leave it on whatever. Take platform.

48
00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 1: Fact, It's true, though, the Bears will not be able

49
00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,600
Speaker 1: to make a decision until I weigh in and whether

50
00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:26,160
Speaker 1: or not we should keep Justin Fields, which continues to

51
00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:29,680
Speaker 1: be a conversation in my house even last night. My

52
00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,960
Speaker 1: son and I went to Gamble Pavilion on Yukon's campus

53
00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,680
Speaker 1: to watch the number one ranked Yukon Huskies, and during

54
00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:41,720
Speaker 1: the game we were still talking about Justin Fields and

55
00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:45,880
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams Simon Lanter are bouncing around some in the

56
00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:51,560
Speaker 1: wrong direction from what we wanted based on our Tuesday convo,

57
00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:55,200
Speaker 1: so we'll have to dig into that before we get

58
00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:59,800
Speaker 1: to all of that. A quick programming note, if you

59
00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:03,240
Speaker 1: aren't paying attention, lean a little bit closer to your

60
00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:08,359
Speaker 1: radio dial and focus. We have two final Sunday Night

61
00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:12,360
Speaker 1: recap episodes left. We are going to do both of

62
00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:18,480
Speaker 1: those immediately after the last game concludes on Sunday nights,

63
00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,640
Speaker 1: So this Sunday we'll go live on YouTube after the

64
00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,880
Speaker 1: Chiefs Bills game around nine to forty five pm Eastern.

65
00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:28,480
Speaker 1: I'm actually I actually can't wait. Wait, it's way past my bedtime,

66
00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,840
Speaker 1: but yeah, this game is so full of drama, so

67
00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,600
Speaker 1: full of opinions, so full of Matt Mitchell freaking the

68
00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 1: freak out. I'm almost more excited for seeing Matt Mitchell

69
00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:46,360
Speaker 1: in whatever state after that game than I am talking

70
00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,200
Speaker 1: about the game or betting the game itself. Will Matt

71
00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:56,680
Speaker 1: Mitchell have eaten wings? Will he have worn gloves? Will

72
00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:58,920
Speaker 1: he be able to come on if the Bills don't win?

73
00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:00,200
Speaker 3: Oh? My god?

74
00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:01,360
Speaker 2: Who cares?

75
00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,480
Speaker 1: Simon, there's a lot of subtext with that game.

76
00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:07,560
Speaker 3: Say it's probably the game of the year.

77
00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:09,520
Speaker 2: We're gonna get to it. We're going to dig in deep.

78
00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,200
Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by

79
00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:13,080
Speaker 1: bet three sixty five.

80
00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:14,360
Speaker 2: Bet three sixty.

81
00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,360
Speaker 1: Five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you get more boosts

82
00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:19,840
Speaker 1: with them than with anyone else. Every day they powered

83
00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:21,320
Speaker 1: the odds one hundreds of bets to give you a

84
00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,520
Speaker 1: chance to win more. Bet three sixty five boost specific markets.

85
00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,479
Speaker 1: You're winnings and even parlays, and they don't stop there,

86
00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:29,599
Speaker 1: keeping out for their biggest and best odds with the

87
00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:33,200
Speaker 1: incredible super Boost. Check out the boost and see why

88
00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:36,360
Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. Bet three sixty five must be twenty

89
00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:40,600
Speaker 1: one or older in president in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

90
00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:43,919
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling Problem called one

91
00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:45,880
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

92
00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:51,039
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right, kicking off the

93
00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:55,680
Speaker 1: divisional round, which is approaching opportunities all over the board,

94
00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,039
Speaker 1: It's time for sharkalls.

95
00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:02,440
Speaker 3: Hello, who's there?

96
00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:08,800
Speaker 4: I'm talking Ray telephone ring somebody saying maybe wanted to

97
00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,640
Speaker 4: do man. Yeah, and since we only have four games,

98
00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:14,160
Speaker 4: show will kind of do this pretty quick. I would say,

99
00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:17,160
Speaker 4: shocking to no one. About sixty percent of the pros

100
00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:20,359
Speaker 4: I talked to like Houston. They like Houston at that number,

101
00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:22,640
Speaker 4: it's such a big number. If people want to view

102
00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:24,880
Speaker 4: of how the pros view this game. I think they're

103
00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,360
Speaker 4: scared off about all the points, like we are with Lamar,

104
00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,360
Speaker 4: and they're just paying them money line with the forty

105
00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,039
Speaker 4: nine ers money line, and it feels like that's the

106
00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,719
Speaker 4: bet they like. If they're going Chalky, they're just pairing

107
00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:37,240
Speaker 4: those two favorites together. So pretty interesting that I haven't

108
00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,600
Speaker 4: really talked to that many people that like the Ravens

109
00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,080
Speaker 4: on the spread, and I feel like when I look

110
00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:44,400
Speaker 4: in the app, it reflects that right, Like it looks

111
00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,760
Speaker 4: like all the money is on Houston. I kind of

112
00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:49,719
Speaker 4: dealt with this last week with the rams, like people

113
00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:52,040
Speaker 4: kept messaging, ar'tie scared about back in the rams all

114
00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,640
Speaker 4: the money is on the rams and talked a little

115
00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:56,920
Speaker 4: bit about it. But it was just like last week

116
00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,000
Speaker 4: was the Pros dream of a bet. Right, the Pros

117
00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:01,520
Speaker 4: took the three and a half and they took the

118
00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,200
Speaker 4: Lines money line when the line came down and they

119
00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:08,160
Speaker 4: crushed the middle. And you know, the books didn't fire anybody,

120
00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,200
Speaker 4: but they probably should have, right, that was a bad,

121
00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:12,280
Speaker 4: bad line. They shouldn't have hunt their three and a half.

122
00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,160
Speaker 4: The numbers should have been three, should have dropped the

123
00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,640
Speaker 4: two and a half, they would have got Lines money

124
00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:20,440
Speaker 4: and you know they would have made off pretty well. Instead,

125
00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:23,040
Speaker 4: they got crushed. They got middled terribly by a lot

126
00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:26,480
Speaker 4: of professionals. So and so, I mean, you talk all

127
00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,479
Speaker 4: the time about these key numbers. That was last week

128
00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,000
Speaker 4: was the definition of that, like a three and a

129
00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:31,920
Speaker 4: half such a key number.

130
00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:34,400
Speaker 3: They had to move it down just because they got so.

131
00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:37,719
Speaker 4: Much money on their rams, and I mean, their worst,

132
00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,240
Speaker 4: the worst case scenario happened for them was that that

133
00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:44,839
Speaker 4: landing in between three just just just terrible. So you

134
00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:48,880
Speaker 4: know this this next game with green Bay. It's the

135
00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:52,000
Speaker 4: same thing of I know plenty of pros who like

136
00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,760
Speaker 4: green Bay. They liked them at ten, they believe in it.

137
00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:57,480
Speaker 4: And then there's pros like being you that are okay

138
00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,600
Speaker 4: with taking the forty nine shore We liked the spot

139
00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,159
Speaker 4: and we're you know, we're trying to break down this

140
00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:04,279
Speaker 4: is a seventh seed in green Bay for a reason.

141
00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:05,680
Speaker 4: We know how well they played towards the end of

142
00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:08,920
Speaker 4: the season and still a team that their defense can

143
00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:10,440
Speaker 4: give up a ton of points. I mean, we joke,

144
00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:13,119
Speaker 4: what was that four or five weeks ago? They made

145
00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,600
Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield look like a Hall of Famer and they

146
00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,400
Speaker 4: made Tommy DeVito the player of the week.

147
00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,120
Speaker 3: So you know, that's that's my pushback.

148
00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:23,440
Speaker 4: When I had a bunch of pros telling me like,

149
00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:24,840
Speaker 4: how do you not take this Green Bay team? How

150
00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:26,840
Speaker 4: do you not take the money line? I just felt

151
00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:28,480
Speaker 4: like that was the most public play of the week, right,

152
00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:30,480
Speaker 4: people are just going to be backing this Green Bay team,

153
00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:31,200
Speaker 4: especially after.

154
00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:33,720
Speaker 3: The beat Dallas. So I'm not sure if there's still

155
00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,240
Speaker 3: the biggest money line play of the week.

156
00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,120
Speaker 4: But I did see what was that Tuesday when I

157
00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:39,960
Speaker 4: flew out before I left that they were like the

158
00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,240
Speaker 4: heaviest bet play at the books.

159
00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:43,400
Speaker 3: Right now was their money line.

160
00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,320
Speaker 4: So not shocking that the public likes them so much,

161
00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,160
Speaker 4: but I was shocked that there's pros that like green

162
00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,000
Speaker 4: Bay that much. Where it's like I did it first too,

163
00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:52,600
Speaker 4: But the more you dive into the numbers, it just

164
00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,640
Speaker 4: feels like the right side.

165
00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,080
Speaker 1: Like you and me, Simon the key phrase there you

166
00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:02,320
Speaker 1: just said it pros like you, you being Chad.

167
00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:03,040
Speaker 3: Yeah.

168
00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,320
Speaker 4: If people don't realize, I am sleep deprived. I have

169
00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:10,920
Speaker 4: traveled across country. Uh, survived multiple babies on an airplane.

170
00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,640
Speaker 2: Don't don't try to give excuses for why you called

171
00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:14,080
Speaker 2: me a pro.

172
00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:19,480
Speaker 3: That's an excuse to the fact. No, no, don't bring

173
00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:20,720
Speaker 3: babies on airplanes. Don't.

174
00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:22,559
Speaker 4: Don't even don't even have me get into a chat.

175
00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:26,440
Speaker 4: Next one, I was undecided about it. I think I'm

176
00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,480
Speaker 4: getting bullied and they're taking Detroit and again we'll we'll

177
00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,920
Speaker 4: dive into it, but people want to know who the

178
00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:32,280
Speaker 4: pro is.

179
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:33,000
Speaker 3: Like most of the.

180
00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,040
Speaker 4: Pros I've talked to really like Detroit in the spot,

181
00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,360
Speaker 4: which I'm just shocked by. So that's when we'll dive

182
00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:42,319
Speaker 4: into obviously. And yeah, this last one, it's not a

183
00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,800
Speaker 4: shocked anybody. It's not exactly what I talked about. If

184
00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,520
Speaker 4: you can get a three, a lot of the Pros

185
00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:49,240
Speaker 4: are going to take the three on the Chiefs, and

186
00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,080
Speaker 4: that's just to them the smart play, like you just

187
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,240
Speaker 4: they're playing the numbers and historically taking the homes as

188
00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,720
Speaker 4: a dog, especially at that number three is a big deal.

189
00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:03,040
Speaker 4: So I knew going into it the public side was

190
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,640
Speaker 4: going to be the Bills.

191
00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,800
Speaker 3: You know, obviously we're about to break it down.

192
00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,920
Speaker 4: But it's just not shocking like that's that was probably

193
00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,120
Speaker 4: the most boring game, worst boring conversation of the week.

194
00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,120
Speaker 4: Why I wouldn't the pros take the plus three on

195
00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,679
Speaker 4: my homes like they know that long term it's it's

196
00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,160
Speaker 4: been good to them, it's been a winner. I would

197
00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,720
Speaker 4: just bummed out that not enough of them are taking

198
00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,080
Speaker 4: this Bills team. I don't think enough respects being paid

199
00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:30,320
Speaker 4: to this Bills team. So yeah, definitely a game I'm

200
00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:31,920
Speaker 4: looking forward to breaking down with you today.

201
00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,199
Speaker 2: I am too. I'm really excited.

202
00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:37,199
Speaker 1: To me, it's that game wraps up everything you want

203
00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,680
Speaker 1: to talk about from a handicapping point of view. As

204
00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:43,000
Speaker 1: a reminder, catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube.

205
00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:45,439
Speaker 1: For those who enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give

206
00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,080
Speaker 1: us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.

207
00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,839
Speaker 1: All Right, we got to get toward foxhol We got

208
00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,160
Speaker 1: to get to our big balls. We got to do

209
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:57,880
Speaker 1: our money line parlay, which I think might go heavy

210
00:09:57,920 --> 00:09:59,719
Speaker 1: on favorites this week. I don't know if we have

211
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:05,280
Speaker 1: a tr but let's start Houston at Baltimore. You hinted

212
00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,040
Speaker 1: at this a little bit. Baltimore nine and a half

213
00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:11,079
Speaker 1: point favorite Tuesday when we spoke, the line was at nine,

214
00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:16,240
Speaker 1: trending to eight and a half, and then it zoomed

215
00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:19,599
Speaker 1: back up to nine and a half, and you just

216
00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:23,920
Speaker 1: said something really specific and interesting. You look in the app,

217
00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:26,560
Speaker 1: the money and the tickets are coming in on Houston.

218
00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:31,800
Speaker 1: So somebody's moving this game in Baltimore's direction, and I

219
00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:36,120
Speaker 1: can't figure out where that money is coming from. Do

220
00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:37,080
Speaker 1: you have any idea?

221
00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:38,960
Speaker 2: Can you suss it out?

222
00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:42,720
Speaker 1: What's your instinct for why that line moved back up

223
00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,960
Speaker 1: even though the wise guys and everybody seems to like Houston.

224
00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:48,440
Speaker 3: There's a bunch of factors.

225
00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:50,160
Speaker 4: But I mean, Evan just put in our chat the

226
00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,720
Speaker 4: weather that could be a factor why it moved, right,

227
00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,320
Speaker 4: it's supposed to be twenty degrees, he's saying it's thirteen

228
00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,640
Speaker 4: to fifteen mile wins.

229
00:10:58,720 --> 00:10:59,960
Speaker 3: That alone would move to the number.

230
00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,520
Speaker 4: Right, Like, why would you not want to take the

231
00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:03,959
Speaker 4: Ravens in a bad weather game?

232
00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:06,760
Speaker 3: That's a big that's a big deal.

233
00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,760
Speaker 4: Like they're they're a team that they can they can

234
00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,440
Speaker 4: thrive in that where we don't know a Houston indoor

235
00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,280
Speaker 4: team that plays better on indoor you know fields, We've

236
00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:19,200
Speaker 4: seen it with CJ. It's a big deal, So that

237
00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,520
Speaker 4: makes sense. I would say it was pretty crazy. I

238
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,120
Speaker 4: was getting a lot of questions about a book we

239
00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:30,559
Speaker 4: can't name is kind of new into the whole gambling spear,

240
00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:33,160
Speaker 4: and they're trying to get new customers, and they went't

241
00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,400
Speaker 4: really bullish, and they moved I believe it was a

242
00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,880
Speaker 4: forty nine ers and the Ravens down to like eight

243
00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,439
Speaker 4: seven and a half at their books, and.

244
00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:41,920
Speaker 3: People were asking why they were doing that.

245
00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:44,560
Speaker 4: And if you obviously, if you don't know what this

246
00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,400
Speaker 4: book is, you probably miss a number then. But basically,

247
00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,360
Speaker 4: this book is trying to get new customers, and the

248
00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:51,559
Speaker 4: perfect time to get new customers is during the playoffs.

249
00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:53,679
Speaker 4: So that's why people were wondering why that line was

250
00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,320
Speaker 4: a point or two off every other book. It's that

251
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,200
Speaker 4: simple fact. They're trying to get new people in there.

252
00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:00,280
Speaker 4: So I mean people are freaking out there, like if

253
00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:01,960
Speaker 4: you don't you love the forty nine ers share at

254
00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,640
Speaker 4: this number, yeah, of course, I mean every other book

255
00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:06,120
Speaker 4: had nine and a half for nine ers, that book

256
00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:08,679
Speaker 4: had eight. Yes, I would love to take it at

257
00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:12,679
Speaker 4: that book. But it's it's basically they're they're they what

258
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,959
Speaker 4: they wanted to do. Happened, right, If you hadn't had

259
00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:17,800
Speaker 4: any money on the site, you added money to it,

260
00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:19,520
Speaker 4: and then you took that number because there was such

261
00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,720
Speaker 4: a great number. So some of the books movements have

262
00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,320
Speaker 4: been bs. But what I think the movement is is

263
00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:27,400
Speaker 4: the weather and then the other fact of what I

264
00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,160
Speaker 4: just told you, all those teasers, all those moneyline parlay

265
00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,240
Speaker 4: is coming in really heavy, all that Ravens team.

266
00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,760
Speaker 3: You know, that's that's what the public wants to do, right.

267
00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:41,040
Speaker 4: They wanted they want to take Baltimore like the Baltimore which.

268
00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:41,760
Speaker 3: I get it.

269
00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:46,079
Speaker 4: Like we talked about them a nauseum after that fort

270
00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:48,240
Speaker 4: nine Ers game. How incredible of the team they are

271
00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:51,280
Speaker 4: with that defense. But Kyle Hamilton's playing well with Rokwan

272
00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:54,520
Speaker 4: Smith is playing well. It's like they got all the pieces.

273
00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:59,280
Speaker 4: They're an incredibly talented team. It's us fading them is

274
00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:01,400
Speaker 4: more about playing the numbers, right, Like we talk all

275
00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,599
Speaker 4: the time, we love Lamar under three, he's two and

276
00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,640
Speaker 4: a half favorite, he's a dog. Me and Chat hit

277
00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:09,760
Speaker 4: him almost every time like it's very rare. We won't

278
00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,160
Speaker 4: take that number, but when it gets over three and

279
00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:13,800
Speaker 4: a half, we pause, and then when it gets over

280
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:15,760
Speaker 4: seven and a half, it's an automatic fade on him.

281
00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:17,840
Speaker 4: And I don't know if you saw Evan's article, but

282
00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:20,280
Speaker 4: it's like Evan put up the numbers. I knew we

283
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:22,000
Speaker 4: had some of the numbers that kind of backed it up,

284
00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:25,079
Speaker 4: but it really stands out when Evan posted it. Well,

285
00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,080
Speaker 4: this is one that doesn't involve that. But on twelve

286
00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:30,160
Speaker 4: days rest in Lamar's career, he's won and six against

287
00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:32,600
Speaker 4: the spread. So that right there is something that pops

288
00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:34,840
Speaker 4: out to where it's like, in seven games he's won

289
00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:36,040
Speaker 4: and six on twelve days rest.

290
00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,560
Speaker 3: Okay, that's pretty interesting. Now we factor hih.

291
00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,400
Speaker 4: We talked about the past three seasons and minus three

292
00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,360
Speaker 4: and a half or higher. He's six and sixteen against

293
00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:46,520
Speaker 4: the spread, Like that's such a big deal, the fact

294
00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:48,760
Speaker 4: that these struggles is a big favorite. Now when it

295
00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,040
Speaker 4: goes above seven and a half, he's one in eight

296
00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,439
Speaker 4: against the spread. Me and you already talked about only

297
00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:55,480
Speaker 4: cover he had was in Week one of this season

298
00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,640
Speaker 4: against a rookie head coach and a rookie QB making

299
00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:01,840
Speaker 4: their first start together. So it just all lines up.

300
00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:03,839
Speaker 4: But we already loved it, and then the trends kind

301
00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:07,680
Speaker 4: of back it up as well, So you know, Lamar,

302
00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,800
Speaker 4: I would be happy to be proven wrong, but me

303
00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:12,520
Speaker 4: and you were up so big right now, it doesn't

304
00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:14,040
Speaker 4: even matter, especially if you've been listening to the show

305
00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,000
Speaker 4: for the last three four years. Like that was one

306
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,080
Speaker 4: of our best calls we've ever had, was that Titans call.

307
00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,920
Speaker 4: Like that was a great call where Titans, I believe

308
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,400
Speaker 4: we're a ten point underdog and they went out right.

309
00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:24,440
Speaker 3: If you go back and.

310
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,400
Speaker 4: Watch that game, the Ravens should have won that game

311
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,400
Speaker 4: thirty times over. Like it was the flukiest thing ever.

312
00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:31,640
Speaker 4: But Dad's playoffs. That's what I'm trying to beat into

313
00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,560
Speaker 4: people's heads here, is that's how playoff is so It

314
00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 4: is tough trying to convince be able take the Texans

315
00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,000
Speaker 4: here just because I get where they're coming from about

316
00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:40,800
Speaker 4: the Ravens love and how well they played this year.

317
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,360
Speaker 4: But I just I love the Texans in the spot.

318
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:49,080
Speaker 1: Shat Simon, I believe we owe people of big balls,

319
00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,880
Speaker 1: we owe people of Foxhole. We've already committed to the

320
00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,560
Speaker 1: Bills and the Chiefs, as Assigmon says, and the Packers

321
00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:59,920
Speaker 1: and the Niners. As an exec decision, I believe this

322
00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,560
Speaker 1: needs to be our big balls better the week, say

323
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:11,640
Speaker 1: allowed him proud Big Balls Better the week Houston Texans

324
00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:15,920
Speaker 1: plus nine and a half against the Baltimore Ravens.

325
00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,720
Speaker 2: Because this is what we're doing. There's no coming back

326
00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:20,000
Speaker 2: from it.

327
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:24,320
Speaker 1: And look, this is a bit more of a controversial

328
00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,960
Speaker 1: call than you would think for people who want to

329
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:31,920
Speaker 1: back big underdogs in this spot as professional betters, which

330
00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,800
Speaker 1: is what Simon and I would normally do, because there

331
00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:36,280
Speaker 1: is money come in on the Ravens and there is

332
00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,440
Speaker 1: a sentiment about the Ravens. For everything we can say

333
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:43,160
Speaker 1: about Lamar Jackson as a favorite, he's been a home

334
00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:44,280
Speaker 1: favorite thirty eight times.

335
00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:46,560
Speaker 2: He's covered just fifteen of those.

336
00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:50,880
Speaker 1: Games over the last twenty years, he is ranked two

337
00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:55,600
Speaker 1: hundred and thirteenth of two hundred and twenty quarterbacks against

338
00:15:55,640 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 1: the spread. As a home favorite, he is just historically

339
00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:05,720
Speaker 1: struggled as a favorite at home. That is the trend

340
00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:11,080
Speaker 1: we are going to back right now.

341
00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:15,360
Speaker 4: Another amazing staff from Evan I love. In the last

342
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 4: twenty years in the playoffs, there's only been four teams

343
00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:20,560
Speaker 4: Chad that were underdogs of have a TD or more

344
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,760
Speaker 4: that closed with over sixty percent of the tickets. So

345
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:27,000
Speaker 4: four teams have ever done this. So in twenty fourteen,

346
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:30,000
Speaker 4: we had the Saints at plus ten. They lost to Seattle,

347
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 4: but they covered. In two thousand and eight Giants against

348
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 4: New England, if you remember that the Super Bowl, they

349
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,520
Speaker 4: were a Day one twelve point dog. They won seventeen

350
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:42,800
Speaker 4: to fourteen. So right now we're two and oh on

351
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,440
Speaker 4: covering these big dogs, big public dogs in the playoffs.

352
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 4: Two thousand and eight Giants plus seven against Dallas they

353
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:51,720
Speaker 4: won twenty one to seventeen.

354
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:52,880
Speaker 3: So not only are.

355
00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:54,840
Speaker 4: We have three and oh on taking these big dogs,

356
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:57,040
Speaker 4: we have two that have one outright, and then two

357
00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,240
Speaker 4: thousand and eight Seahawks plus nine they got smoked. That's

358
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:01,560
Speaker 4: why I want you to throw a little on the

359
00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:04,880
Speaker 4: money line just because if you play this spot long term,

360
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:06,800
Speaker 4: it's it's a nice trend so far. I know it's

361
00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:09,640
Speaker 4: only four game sample, but it's been profitable taking these

362
00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,639
Speaker 4: big dogs not only on the number, but on the

363
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:14,680
Speaker 4: money line as well. So I had a couple questions

364
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:16,760
Speaker 4: about why even mess with the Texans money line? If

365
00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:19,399
Speaker 4: I have a future, I want it all, baby, Like

366
00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:21,280
Speaker 4: I said, if you don't want to take the money line,

367
00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:22,639
Speaker 4: you just want to write your future, go for it.

368
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,119
Speaker 4: But it's like if I like a spot, I'm going

369
00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 4: to keep throwing money on it. So obviously I love

370
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,439
Speaker 4: the number. Yes, like Chad said, a little scary, it

371
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,160
Speaker 4: came back up. And now if it makes a little

372
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,800
Speaker 4: bit more sense now when we're talking about weather, because

373
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:37,800
Speaker 4: that is a big deal the factor in the weather here.

374
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 4: So if you've been riding these unders too, these wind unders,

375
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,680
Speaker 4: if it holds and we're getting fifteen twenty more prior

376
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,200
Speaker 4: wins by kickoff, if you're wondering what me and try

377
00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 4: to like it a total in that game. But it's

378
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:51,960
Speaker 4: the under. We like the unders. We play wind unders here,

379
00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:55,679
Speaker 4: so double play on that one. Taking the dog, taking the.

380
00:17:55,720 --> 00:18:00,880
Speaker 1: Under speaking of double play, Green Bay at San Francisco.

381
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,200
Speaker 1: San Francisco is a nine and a half point favorite.

382
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,040
Speaker 1: This was my exec decision.

383
00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:09,959
Speaker 2: I still love it. I love it even more because

384
00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:11,080
Speaker 2: the majority.

385
00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,600
Speaker 1: Of the bets, meaning the squares, are coming in on

386
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 1: the Packers.

387
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,760
Speaker 2: They are a public dog.

388
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:21,240
Speaker 1: I'm so thrilled about this. Just the value on this

389
00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,840
Speaker 1: team is inflated. This team should be a eleven to

390
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 1: twelve point underdog in this spot. And we have seen

391
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,680
Speaker 1: this too many times, too many times with a team

392
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:36,239
Speaker 1: coming in hot and then getting demolished. They are one

393
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,560
Speaker 1: of the youngest teams in the league. They're just happy

394
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 1: to be here. This is all a surprise to them.

395
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,720
Speaker 1: In November, they were on the outside looking in. They

396
00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 1: needed a run in the last two months of the

397
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 1: year just to get to this spot. The Niners have

398
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,159
Speaker 1: the best shot to win the Super Bowl they have

399
00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 1: had during Kyle Shanahan's reign. There is no dominant team

400
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:03,880
Speaker 1: in the AFC right so to me. Remember, the Packers

401
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,639
Speaker 1: lost to the Giants second half of the season, lost

402
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,520
Speaker 1: of the Steelers second half of the season, gave up

403
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 1: thirty points to the Panthers second half of the season,

404
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 1: I'm betting the Niners. I might even be tempted Simon

405
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 1: to take some of the out lines Niners minus twenty

406
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 1: one plus three thirty five minus twenty four plus forty six.

407
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:38,879
Speaker 2: I'm gonna sprinkle. I feel so good about this game. Sprinkle, sprinkle, sprinkle.

408
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,080
Speaker 4: I think the first call I got when we got

409
00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 4: off our call on Tuesday was a buddy or a

410
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:47,920
Speaker 4: pro saying, fucking chat. As soon as you guys said

411
00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,200
Speaker 4: take the forty nine ers minus ten and moved to

412
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:53,680
Speaker 4: nine and a half, I said, yeah, sounds about right.

413
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just we love it. I got. The more

414
00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 3: I dive into it, I'm with you.

415
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 4: And then I read Evans about you know, Shanahan as

416
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,200
Speaker 4: a home favorite, you know.

417
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 3: Big favorites like this.

418
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 4: It's all there, like I have no fear in taking

419
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:09,959
Speaker 4: this number and I feel like it nailed it too,

420
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 4: where we're getting a good number just because of what

421
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 4: happened last week with Dallas, like that blowout.

422
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I went back and watched the tape.

423
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,720
Speaker 4: It's like Jir Jordan Love is next level right now,

424
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,360
Speaker 4: Like his confidence is out of this world. And that's

425
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 4: the way they stay in this and that's why the

426
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 4: pros are backing a little bit of the screen Bay team.

427
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:29,879
Speaker 3: It's because of that. It's like at the ten I

428
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:30,640
Speaker 3: understood why.

429
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 4: It's like, Okay, you're hoping for a backdoor Jordan of love,

430
00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 4: because that's why I'm in agreeance with you, which feels

431
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 4: like this forty nine Ers offense is going to absolutely

432
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 4: roll on this Green Bay defense, Like there is not

433
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 4: going to be a bunch of pick sixes, right, Like

434
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 4: I just can't see brock Purty having a meltdown, Like yeah,

435
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 4: the first thirty plays are going to be totally scripted

436
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 4: by Shanahan, So it's like I have no fear at

437
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 4: all compared to Shanahan's script with McCarthy's script against that

438
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 4: Green Bay's defense. Yeah, ched like the fact that we're

439
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 4: getting nine and a half again. I kind of wanted

440
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 4: to make in my foxhole, but I don't know if

441
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:10,199
Speaker 4: that'd be sacrilege, just because I just love it that

442
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 4: it's come down and it's like I don't mind it,

443
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 4: and again like I already bet it again. I used

444
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 4: that book I talked about that were like weird enough

445
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,239
Speaker 4: to give us the minus eight where it's like, all right,

446
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 4: your sons of bitches. I'll be a new customer to

447
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,239
Speaker 4: your shit site and bet this number. If that's what

448
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 4: you guys want, that's what I'll do. So yeah, it's

449
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 4: it's crazy, It's it moved like it did, and I'm

450
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 4: shocked every book is holding steady at nine and a half.

451
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,120
Speaker 4: Like you said, it's the public dog of the week

452
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 4: is Green Bay. So the books you're saying, all right,

453
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:41,160
Speaker 4: we don't want to give anyone else to ten, then

454
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 4: we'll just hold it the nine and a half and

455
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 4: I'll be interested if it pops by game time, just

456
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,440
Speaker 4: because of all the teasers and all the bets coming

457
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 4: in on the forty nine ers, I think late.

458
00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 1: For the record, I said the niners were my executive

459
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 1: decision at nine and a half, not at ten. They

460
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 1: were not at ten on Tuesday when we had the

461
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: podcast number.

462
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 3: One, you were looking to live numbers.

463
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 4: So I was it was ten at bet three sixty

464
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,639
Speaker 4: five when you said it, and Matt Mitchell had the

465
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 4: graphic cup at ten.

466
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 2: Oh he did, correct.

467
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 3: Okay, I wouldn't lie to you, brother, Come on now.

468
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,920
Speaker 2: I wrote it down as nine and a half. I

469
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 2: didn't write it down as.

470
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,439
Speaker 4: N Yeah, no, just because we were in studio, like

471
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 4: you couldn't see what the live number was.

472
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 3: Ten. That's why Matt Mitchell had it as such.

473
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 2: Which is fair, all right, that's fair. Fine, I'll take

474
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 2: it at ten, totally fine. Number one, number one, number two.

475
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 1: This is a luck over. The luck rankings this past

476
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 1: week went five and one. This is a luck over.

477
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 1: And what did I say the other day? I think

478
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 1: the final score is going to be forty two to fourteen.

479
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 1: So we like the over in this game. I'm betting

480
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 1: the over. I'm betting the Niners. I'm betting some all

481
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,919
Speaker 1: Niners as huge favorites, as high as I can get it,

482
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 1: at the biggest number I can get it. Here's a

483
00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 1: great stat if you like Green Bay to pull the upset.

484
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 2: Consider this.

485
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 1: Since twenty eleven, eighteen underdogs one outright in the wild

486
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 1: card round, seventeen of those eighteen lost in the next round.

487
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan at home and.

488
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 1: As a favorite in the playoffs four to zer straight

489
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 1: up and against the spread in both spots since nineteen

490
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:23,919
Speaker 1: ninety the only coach.

491
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,479
Speaker 2: Four and oh were better in that spot. But here's

492
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 2: why I like the forty nine ers so much. This weekend.

493
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: They have nine wins of sixteen or more points this season,

494
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 1: most this year, with the Cowboys eleven wins of ten

495
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:45,199
Speaker 1: points or more this season, most in the NFL. This

496
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 1: is just a great spot for this team that is

497
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: probably the best team in the league right now.

498
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, and like you said, it took me a minute

499
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 4: to come around. I think the biggest one for me

500
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 4: is just their defense, where I know the forty nine

501
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 4: ers defense will be able to get stops and I

502
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 4: don't know if the Green Bay defense will even if

503
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 4: Purdy comes out a little rusty from this extended rest,

504
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 4: and you know, they start out sloppy in the first quarter.

505
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 4: We've seen it. I mean even when they played the Eagles,

506
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:13,959
Speaker 4: we saw them going, you know that run. I think

507
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 4: they scored five straight times where it's like once a

508
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 4: Fortnitas offense gets going, it's just you can't stop them.

509
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 4: And like everyone's healthy, Like just going through their injury

510
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 4: report right now, like it's all good. Like it's crazy,

511
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 4: how you know, not that I thought McCaffrey is gonna

512
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 4: miss time, but like he was banged up towards the

513
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 4: end of the season. I mean they held him out,

514
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 4: They pulled him out of a game because I think

515
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 4: he took a shot right on his knee, and it's

516
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,360
Speaker 4: like they got the rest. All their guys are good

517
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 4: to go. It's just it's so crucial getting that one seed,

518
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 4: especially a team like this that's so physical. So yeah,

519
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 4: couldn't couldn't have picked the worst spot for Green Bay

520
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 4: to walk into, especially when they're overinflated, like he talked

521
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,239
Speaker 4: about it. Just the line moved too much based off

522
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 4: of what happened last week.

523
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 3: It's like, I do think Green Bay is good. I

524
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 3: think they are.

525
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 4: I mean, it's crazy to say I would have them

526
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 4: higher rated obviously than a bunch of teams, like even

527
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 4: the Eagles, who were ahead of them. It's like they've

528
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 4: passed them right, Like how they're playing right now, they

529
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 4: are a better team than yous that we're playing. So

530
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 4: nothing but respect green Band what they've done this season.

531
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 4: It's just it's just a bad spot against a really

532
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 4: high powered dolphinse with the forty nine ers, and just

533
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:22,919
Speaker 4: I just can't see how they keep this one closed.

534
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 3: So I get where you're doing the all line.

535
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,360
Speaker 4: Stuff and betting all that, but yeah, like the fact

536
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 4: you're getting nine and a half.

537
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 3: That makes me so happy.

538
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 4: Everyone can get that number now, just because the public

539
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 4: have bet this down.

540
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 1: Go get it and now a quick word from our sponsor,

541
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:41,360
Speaker 1: Hello Fresh. With HelloFresh, you get farm fresh, pre portioned

542
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 1: ingredients and seasonal recipes delivered right to your door. Are

543
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,160
Speaker 1: you too sad from seeing Mike McCarthy coach your football

544
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 1: team to leave your house?

545
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 2: No problem.

546
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 1: With HelloFresh, you skip trips to the grocery store, And

547
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 1: unlike betting on the Dolphins, they make home cooking easy,

548
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 1: fun and affordable. That's why they're America's number one meal kit.

549
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 1: This time of year, everyone's looking to revamp their eating habits.

550
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: Look to Hello Fresh as wholesome options every week. They

551
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 1: know breakfast is the most important meal of the day.

552
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 1: In fact, they're giving all subscribers free breakfast for life.

553
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 1: That means you'll enjoy a totally free breakfast item with

554
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:20,239
Speaker 1: every single Hello Fresh delivery. So go to HelloFresh dot

555
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 1: com slash favorites pod free and use code Favorites pod

556
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: free for free Breakfast for life one breakfast item per

557
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 1: box while subscription is active. That's free breakfast for life

558
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 1: at HelloFresh dot com slash Favorites Pod Free with code

559
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 1: favorites Pod Free, HelloFresh, America's number one meal kit, Tampa

560
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: Bay at Detroit Simon, I think this has to be

561
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 1: our foxhil we Lean Bucks on Tuesday didn't pull the trigger.

562
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: We hadn't done all of our diligence yet it was

563
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 1: seven at the time. I think it cost us half

564
00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 1: a point in value. I think we both still like

565
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: the Bucks a lot here. You can find a seven

566
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 1: at somewhere take it. The majority of the bets are

567
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: coming into the Lions. That's why I'm thinking it's got

568
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: to be our foxhole. The trait got outgained by the Rams,

569
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 1: and if you look at the matchup, Baker Mayfield is

570
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 1: going to torch this Lion's secondary and everyone knows what

571
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: Todd Bowles is gonna do. He does not disguise it.

572
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 1: Blitz Blitz, Blitz. There's one thing Jared Goff has not

573
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 1: been as effective against.

574
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 2: It's the blitz. It's extra pressure. I feel like we

575
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 2: got to go with the Bucks.

576
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, my model likes the Bucks. I wanted to take

577
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 3: the Bucks.

578
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 4: It just sucks all the pushback I got where I

579
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 4: get where the pros are coming from.

580
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 3: Why they love the Lions.

581
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 4: Here, you know, no one thinks the Bucks are a

582
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 4: better team, right, The Lions are obviously the better team.

583
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 4: They deserve to be this big of a spread number,

584
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 4: but means I just think it's too high. That's why

585
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 4: we want to take the Bucks, as simple as that.

586
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 4: Where we're just playing the numbers here. So yeah, I

587
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 4: think I guess Lions fans are just very sensitive right

588
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 4: now because they haven't been this position. They haven't won

589
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:12,399
Speaker 4: a playoff game in thirty years, and they're kind of

590
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 4: puffing their chests out and they quickly went from this

591
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 4: lovable underdog character. So I think every NFL fan kind

592
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 4: of hates them now a week into the playoffs, are

593
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 4: just it's too much. Lions fans, like, I don't know,

594
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 4: they're just they're being aggressive Like me and Chad, it's

595
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 4: all business here. It's all business, like I got nothing

596
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 4: against the lines. We're not begging you to take the

597
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 4: Bucks in the money line. We're just telling you to

598
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 4: cover this number like that's that's the key here. It's

599
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 4: like the numbers too big. We think it should be

600
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 4: closer below six. It's six and a half seven. Like

601
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 4: Chad said, did a couple of books, you can still

602
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 4: get seven's how can we not take that number like this?

603
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 4: This team, the back door is always open, and people

604
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 4: point to they played early in the season.

605
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: Me and Chad were on the Bucks.

606
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 4: Yes, people kept reminding us that we took the Bucks

607
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 4: there against this Lions team at home. They lost twenty

608
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 4: to six, and I went back and watched it, and

609
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 4: my biggest takeaway was it was just a bad Baker game.

610
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 4: Baker played terrible in that game, and they were just

611
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 4: never gonna be in a Baker camp play. So Sam

612
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 4: goes here, Baker lays an egg. Yeah, of course the

613
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 4: Lions are gonna dominate and win this game. But Chad

614
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 4: just talked about it. It's like their secondary can be

615
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 4: moved on. They're not a team that is going to

616
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 4: shut down another offense. They're a team that needs to

617
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 4: outscore you. And that's the fear with back in the

618
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 4: alliance here. It's just like, are we gonna get the

619
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 4: same exact thing that happened last week where golf looked

620
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 4: incredible in the first half and then just totally fell

621
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 4: off a cliff after a team that made the adjustment

622
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 4: for the second half like that really did happen. He

623
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 4: put up three points at home against that Rams team.

624
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 4: He did struggle in that second half. As much as

625
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 4: I like to make fun of these dinosaur coaches like

626
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 4: Todd Bowles, you know I expected him able to make

627
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 4: adjustments to give golf problems. So you know, Chad, Chad,

628
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 4: you're you've talked me into it. I did get bullied

629
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 4: pretty hard about this where people are like you guys

630
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 4: got to stop overthinking. This is just taking the Signs

631
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 4: team because the shotgun of pros do like the Lions here.

632
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 3: I just I can't get there. This big of a number,

633
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 3: especially at the seven, just feels way too big. So yeah,

634
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 3: the the.

635
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 4: Lions team have to do what they did last week

636
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 4: against the Rams. Their their their defense, gotta what.

637
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 3: I talked about.

638
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,239
Speaker 4: They gotta play like the old school football style. They

639
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 4: gotta be rough, they gotta be hitting guys every play.

640
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 4: They gotta be all over Mike Evans and Gywins. And

641
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 4: you know that's how they could win this game and

642
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 4: stopping those two guys. But me and you are betting

643
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 4: they won't be able to and like I feel confident

644
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 4: in doing that. When you look at the numbers, it's

645
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 4: just how bad they are against the past. I mean,

646
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 4: we just saw what Pooka and Cooper did. Mike Evans

647
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 4: and Guywin aren't there fall far of the step down?

648
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 4: Like these guys are such producers, especially Mike Evans had

649
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 4: such a bad week last week.

650
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 3: Chad. I love that bounce back spot.

651
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 4: I know we don't do props on here, but I

652
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 4: do love Mike evans props this upcoming week. I like

653
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 4: his anytime touchdown, I like his over receiving yards. It's

654
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 4: just a great bounce back spot for a Hall of

655
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 4: Famer who just had a bad week last week. And

656
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 4: you know we talked about this week in interviews. It's

657
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 4: like he wants to get that back. Oh there we go.

658
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 4: Stucky's on Godwin Overs.

659
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,719
Speaker 1: It's like I was just gonna say, Stucky is on

660
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: Godwin's over longest reception. Folks should listen to Stucky and

661
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 1: Raybound on the Action Network Thursday episode because they went deep, deep,

662
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 1: deep on a breakdown of this game from the perspective

663
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: of the Lions secondary against Baker and the Bucks, and

664
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 1: a reminder the last four games, the Lions defense has

665
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: given up Stafford three hundred and sixty seven yards Hookah

666
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty one yards receiving, Nick Mullins three

667
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: ninety six, Justin Jefferson one hundred and ninety two yards receiving,

668
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 1: Dak three hundred and forty five yards throwing, Ceedee Lamb

669
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty seven yards receiving, and then that

670
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: previous game against Minnesota, Nick Mullins four hundred and eleven

671
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 1: yards passing JJ, Justin Jefferson one hundred and forty one

672
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 1: yards receiving. Last week, Kate Otton, who has become America's

673
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 1: sweetheart as a tight end.

674
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 2: He was the Action Network Pick of the Week.

675
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: So many player props were one on Kate Otten, including

676
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell and Evan Abrams and Stuckey with a listener

677
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: at a random bar betting Kate outen alt Lines Live

678
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 1: Lines on Monday Night. You just have to expect another

679
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 1: big game from the receivers in this in this matchup,

680
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,959
Speaker 1: and I think that's what keeps that's what keeps the

681
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 1: Bucks close, because you said it in that first game,

682
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 1: like Baker just missed a lot of balls downfield.

683
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, he laid it to a leg.

684
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 4: And that's the that's the fear, and that's why I

685
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,479
Speaker 4: think I'm getting pushed back from guys who like Detroit

686
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 4: here where it's like I'm investing too much in Baker

687
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 4: after one of Baker's better games. But if you really

688
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 4: go into the numbers last week, Baker did play really well.

689
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 4: It wasn't like his best game ever, right, he just

690
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 4: took advantage of the opportunities the Eagles were giving to him.

691
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 3: And you know, that's why we like Baker.

692
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 4: It's like we talk about his grit and he's just

693
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 4: a constant pro where it's like I like where Baker

694
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 4: can go over five throwing and it does not fade him.

695
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 4: He still has a confidence as if he just won

696
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 4: five for five throwing. It's like the guy just does

697
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 4: not get shaken that way. And you know, another amazing

698
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 4: staff from Evan. Again it's a small sample. Baker in

699
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 4: his career is undefeated against the spread in the playoffs, right,

700
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 4: Like he's just he covers in the playoffs. He's always

701
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 4: a little bit underrated. So this feels again like he's

702
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 4: a little underrated here. I have this number five and

703
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 4: a half, it's six and a half seven. We love

704
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 4: to take that value there, especially on acrossing key numbers

705
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 4: here like six and a half and seven. So Yeah, Unfortunately,

706
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 4: our book is showing six and a half, so that's

707
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 4: what we'll have to play. But like Chad said, there's

708
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:46,800
Speaker 4: there's a bunch of sevens out there. You can go

709
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 4: get people.

710
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 1: I do think come Sunday, this will be back at seven.

711
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 1: I would wait on this one because the money's going

712
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 1: to keep coming into the Alliance. They are America's sweetheart team.

713
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 1: They're a public team. We've seen these lines move as

714
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 1: games have gotten closer to kickoff.

715
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 2: I would hold off. We saw it last.

716
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 1: Week the Chiefs went from four to four and a

717
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,240
Speaker 1: half to five to five and a half against the Dolphins.

718
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,240
Speaker 1: If you like the dog here, give it a second.

719
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 1: But the Bucks plus six and a half will be

720
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 1: our Foxholt.

721
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

722
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to

723
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:21,439
Speaker 2: a city.

724
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 3: I'm a foxhole guy.

725
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 2: Simon.

726
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 1: This is just the second time in Lions franchise history

727
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: that they have been favorites in the playoffs and consecutive games.

728
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: How long ago was the last time, Matt Mitchell please

729
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: play the hot new number one recording sweeping America. The

730
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:46,240
Speaker 1: last time the Lions were favored in consecutive playoff.

731
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:55,399
Speaker 4: Games asal Mommy kissing a close.

732
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,760
Speaker 3: A money the MISSLEO.

733
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:08,320
Speaker 1: I saw Mommy kissing Santa Claus December nineteen fifty two. Simon,

734
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 1: I wasn't even born in December of nineteen fifty two.

735
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 3: My dad wasn't even born yet, so that is a long.

736
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: Time ago, Thank fucking god. Oh I can say about that.

737
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 1: All right, Kent City Buffalo.

738
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 2: It's the game. We got to talk about. Everything else

739
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 2: is preamble. This is the game.

740
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 1: This was your Simon says, been bouncing around two and

741
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:30,879
Speaker 1: a half three, two and a half three, It's back

742
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 1: down to two and a half to pros Joe's game.

743
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 1: Bets are on the Chiefs. Money is on the Bills.

744
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: I did bet it this morning. I know on Tuesday

745
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:48,240
Speaker 1: I was. I was fifty to fifty this morning. Bills

746
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 1: by a million. Russeuell Douglas practice on Wednesday. Sean McDermott

747
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 1: in his press conference yesterday made it seem like linebacker

748
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 1: Terrell Bernard, who caught it off the field old could

749
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 1: play on Sunday. This was the big issue for me

750
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 1: was the injuries.

751
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 3: Is a J.

752
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 1: Klein off the street going to be the guy defending

753
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: the middle of the field. But everything you said about

754
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 1: the Chief is right, Like they're not the same team,

755
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 1: so you gotta This is when it gets really fun.

756
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: You need to understand when the wave is cresting. And

757
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 1: that's the scariest part of betting. I believe we are

758
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 1: picking a time when the wave is cresting.

759
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:31,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, And it's also like, I remember you were worried

760
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 4: about anjel on Tuesday, and we didn't talk too much

761
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 4: about it, but it was also in the back of

762
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 4: mind of like it's the last game, buddy, Like they'll

763
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 4: give them the pain thats he needs, right, It's just like,

764
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 4: can you give us one more?

765
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 3: That's how every all these guys are so damned tough.

766
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 4: I mean, it's like the hockey thing, right, the hockey

767
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:48,399
Speaker 4: guys play with all these injuries and the season ends

768
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 4: they get about ten surgeries. So the same goes for football.

769
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,319
Speaker 4: I was shocked that there wasn't as much love for

770
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,240
Speaker 4: the Bills. I thought there would be, Like, it seems

771
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 4: like guys are just scared against the go against my homes, honestly,

772
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 4: and they feel like not that it's lazy betting, but

773
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 4: they're just like, you know, what, I'm just going to

774
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 4: take the three and I haven't worry about this one

775
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 4: where it's like, why don't you just do that with

776
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 4: the Bills of the two and a half? Like that

777
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,919
Speaker 4: to me just feels like the smart play, Like like.

778
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 3: You just said, it's all lined up there the Bills.

779
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, we need those guys in the middle, like you

780
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 4: talked about, like we don't want guys who just got

781
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:21,280
Speaker 4: up bubble their couch playing middle linebacker for this Bills

782
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 4: team against Mahomes. But it's like, I'm just not scared

783
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 4: of Mahomes and this team and like just going through

784
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 4: this last you know, a couple months with them, it's

785
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:32,799
Speaker 4: like they'll have a game where they kind of show

786
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 4: it off, right, they're back to their ar whatsoft. I

787
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:35,919
Speaker 4: think they had a game where they put up thirty

788
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 4: one points in the middle of the season and like

789
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 4: everyone jumped right back on them, and then the next

790
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:42,439
Speaker 4: week they could barely move the ball against Denver. It's

791
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 4: like they're just they're just so inconsistent and the Bills,

792
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:49,320
Speaker 4: whatever you want to say about them being inconsistent and

793
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 4: Josh Allen turnovers and everything like that, they the inconsistency

794
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 4: kind of changed for me when they made a change

795
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 4: of oc and they really did find an identity by

796
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 4: running the ball more. And it's like that's going to

797
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:02,919
Speaker 4: pay dividends to them. I feel like in the playoffs right,

798
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 4: like when they need something to lean, I feel like

799
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 4: they'll be able to do that. And you know, historically,

800
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 4: another thing I stole from Evan, it's like Josh Allen

801
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 4: against really good defenses actually plays really well in his career,

802
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 4: Like he performs really well against really good defenses. So

803
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 4: I know what a couple of pros bring that up

804
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 4: where it's like, well, they have the better defense for

805
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 4: the Chiefs.

806
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 3: It's like Josh Allen's cancels out.

807
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 4: I mean, Josh Allen, can we not agree he's the

808
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 4: best quarterback in the draft, like left in the playoffs

809
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 4: right from like what the way he's played coming in

810
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 4: and him you know him and that Steelers game where

811
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 4: it's like that ability to run and be so big

812
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 4: and strong, it's just such an X factor.

813
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 3: You know.

814
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 4: We've even talked about the fact that the Chiefs have

815
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 4: never played in Buffalo when the Bills have had a

816
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,280
Speaker 4: full stadium of their fans, Like it's just all points

817
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,959
Speaker 4: to them. And the only thing keeping this down below

818
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 4: the three. It's like it's the professionals taking the three

819
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 4: on the Chiefs. So it is just such an interesting

820
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:58,879
Speaker 4: line this week where it's like I thought it would

821
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 4: be stuck in three all week. I'm shocked the books

822
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 4: are taking the two and a halfs, But I have

823
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 4: to believe they're laying another bad line, like they've laid

824
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:07,240
Speaker 4: a couple bad lines already this playoffs.

825
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:08,839
Speaker 3: I think this is another bad line by the book.

826
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:14,240
Speaker 1: Every team has that moment where they get over the hump.

827
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,720
Speaker 1: And you and I have loved the Bills the second

828
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,479
Speaker 1: half of the season. We've been riding them. We think

829
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:24,280
Speaker 1: they could be as good, if not better than the Ravens,

830
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,839
Speaker 1: especially as this defense was coming on and getting more

831
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 1: comfortable after all the injuries and what they've done with

832
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 1: Joe Brady. I mean, we saw it the way Josh

833
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 1: Allen ran the ball against the Steelers. As long as

834
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 1: they can make the right coaching decisions and stay out

835
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 1: of their own way, the Chiefs have only beaten one

836
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 1: playoff team this entire year, the Miami Dolphins. They did

837
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 1: it twice, and so this is a great spot for

838
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 1: the Bills to psychologically, it's an important game for them,

839
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 1: it's a important game for Josh Allen, important game for McDermott.

840
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 1: Sets up perfectly if they can be healthy playing in

841
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:09,879
Speaker 1: front of the home crowd, cold conditions like Yeah, the

842
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: more we talk about it, the more it seems like

843
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 1: the right thing to do.

844
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, only the way the Bills lose.

845
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 4: The Bills beat themselves, right, if Josh Allen has a meltdown,

846
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 4: turns the ball over a bunch, they're sloppy, they're not

847
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 4: making the right plays.

848
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 3: Of course they're going to lose this game. But it's like, if.

849
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 4: They just played the way they should, I just don't

850
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 4: see a way that this team beats them. And I

851
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 4: know you love ref stats, and a couple people send

852
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 4: this to me. Obviously, this ref stat is not good

853
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 4: for us. I don't know if you saw this. It's

854
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,440
Speaker 4: Sean Hockley will be the ref for this game. So

855
00:40:38,520 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 4: in this history, Mahomes is eight and two when he

856
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 4: refs his games, including two and zero in the playoffs.

857
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:49,360
Speaker 4: The Bills, in the other hand, they have forty penalties

858
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 4: for three hundred and forty seven yards called against them

859
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 4: in four games with hockey, so the average ten penalties

860
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 4: a game with this guy when he refs their game.

861
00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 4: So not the stat we want to see the refs.

862
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 4: The ref clearly is not good to this Bills team.

863
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 4: But I'm still not worried about. I know a lot

864
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 4: of people send it to us. We do love ref stabs,

865
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 4: but it's just like they the NFL is going to

866
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 4: try to fix this game from a homes people, if

867
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 4: that's what you're worried about, they are just as happy

868
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 4: moving Josh Allen along and this Bills franchise along. So

869
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 4: don't don't don't start started the crazy conspiracies yet.

870
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 3: But yes, if if they.

871
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 4: Don't cover this game and a ref makes a big

872
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 4: call at the end of this I will bring the

873
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:30,280
Speaker 4: stat back up and we will bitch about him refereeing

874
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:30,919
Speaker 4: this Bills game.

875
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 1: Look what the NFL is really gonna want? I think

876
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 1: they want a Bills Niners super Bowl.

877
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: It's line up though.

878
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 4: I saw I think the actually ever tweeted out someone

879
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 4: made that bet for like ten to fifteen bucks to

880
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 4: win like five K. It's like, it looks like such

881
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 4: a great bet now. But if you made that bet

882
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 4: a month ago, people, and I thought you were a

883
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 4: crazy person.

884
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:53,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, look, I made that bet before the season,

885
00:41:55,080 --> 00:42:00,080
Speaker 1: did you My two best remaining futures are and I

886
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 1: wanted to talk about this next week. If it advances

887
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 1: to that, how do I hedge? Because my best futures

888
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 1: remaining are Niners Chiefs and Niners Bills matchups. And you

889
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 1: know why I made that bet because before the season began,

890
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:22,439
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams had a great stat that I think nine

891
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 1: of the past ten Super Bowl winners had odds of

892
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 1: twelve to one or less when the season began. So

893
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 1: I just did a round robin of all the matchups

894
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 1: and it was all like it was it was Bengals, Chiefs,

895
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 1: Bills against Niners Eagles in every pairing.

896
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,720
Speaker 2: So I just did that and I've got two remaining.

897
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:48,239
Speaker 4: Pretty good, right, Yeah, as I say, you're in a

898
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 4: nice spot where it's like, basically with that hedge, it's

899
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 4: pretty simple. You just let the first game play right,

900
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,479
Speaker 4: So next week the Foy Niners are the first game.

901
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 4: You'll just let that play out and then you can

902
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 4: hedge the next game if you're really scary. But yeah,

903
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 4: that's that's a great bet.

904
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:03,919
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, we're gonna talk about this on next week's show.

905
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 1: How much am I hedging at four? Is the question

906
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 1: before we get to that. Normally we would do the

907
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 1: money line underdog round robin. A reminder, we're on the

908
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 1: Bills here minus two and a half. Normally we do

909
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:20,439
Speaker 1: the money line underdog round robin. We love the Niners here,

910
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 1: we like the Bills here. I guess we could do

911
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 1: a money line underdog round robin of the Texans and

912
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 1: the Bucks, but I.

913
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 3: Almost rather I wouldn't do Bucks.

914
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 4: I know it sounds stupid, but I just I just

915
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 4: feel like the Lions will win this game, like the

916
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 4: I don't know, just the fact that Campbell is such

917
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 4: a high risk guy that to me gives them the

918
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 4: edge to win it where I wouldn't bet. I know,

919
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 4: I usually like Bend the Dog's on line. It's just

920
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 4: I feel like his new age think is going to

921
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 4: beat out Todd Bulls old Jage thinking. That's why I

922
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 4: just haven't touched their money line. But yeah, the three

923
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,439
Speaker 4: favorites and the one dog. If the Texans come through,

924
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 4: that's gonna be a really nice paid in a money

925
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:05,720
Speaker 4: line round robin.

926
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 1: So I feel like our money line round robin should

927
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: really be Texans, Lions, Niners.

928
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 2: And bills.

929
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I like that.

930
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:16,720
Speaker 2: Put it in the book.

931
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:21,879
Speaker 1: Make Little Caesars the official pizza sponsor of the NFL

932
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:25,240
Speaker 1: part of your game day, Simon, if a genie granted

933
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: you three wishes, how many of your wishes would be

934
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: related to Little Caesar's Pizza?

935
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 3: All of them?

936
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:30,839
Speaker 2: All three?

937
00:44:30,880 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 5: That's right.

938
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 1: Order online during our pizza pizza pre game one hour

939
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 1: before NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.

940
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza or pick the topics

941
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 1: you crave. Assimon, what do you what do you think

942
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:45,240
Speaker 1: about this new motto? I invent it. If thy team

943
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 1: on Sunday seems tired and lazy, twas simply because thy

944
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 1: crust twasn't crazy.

945
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:58,239
Speaker 2: However, you order your pizza, you win.

946
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:01,640
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, every one scores with convenient delivery

947
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 1: or our in store pizze support will pick up. So

948
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 1: grab some friends and enjoy a few slices during the game.

949
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:10,839
Speaker 1: I just got to say, I've had multiple people come

950
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,800
Speaker 1: up to me to ask me about the Little Caesars

951
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 1: reads and if I'm coming up with those mottos on

952
00:45:17,719 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 1: the spot, and the answer is one hundred percent yes.

953
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 1: That Mitchell has nothing to do with it all, right,

954
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 1: do you have the biggest bet yet at this point?

955
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 3: Shockingly, it's pretty it's pretty close.

956
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 4: Like I'm pretty heavy on the Bills because I thought

957
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:36,879
Speaker 4: that two and a half would be gone. And I'm

958
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,320
Speaker 4: pretty heavy on the forty nine ers and nine and

959
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 4: a half, so I also thought that'd be gone. But

960
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 4: the Texans, like, I'm just I've been hoping to get

961
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 4: to ten, so the Texans might end up as my

962
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:50,279
Speaker 4: bigger bet my time Saturday comes around. But it's like

963
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 4: I threw a really small amount on the ten when

964
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 4: it popped on Sunday when we were in New York

965
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,600
Speaker 4: or Monday morning, and it just hasn't gotten back to it,

966
00:45:57,640 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 4: so that that Texan's my I wouldn't be my biggest

967
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:03,439
Speaker 4: bet because I'm just waiting for the ten. But yeah,

968
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 4: my two favorite bet ay now definitely Texans and Bills.

969
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:08,240
Speaker 2: No Niners and Bills.

970
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 4: Yeah sure, I meant by the time their games, probably

971
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 4: my two biggest bets Bills in Texans.

972
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 2: But right now you really like the nine ers nine

973
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 2: and a half.

974
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 3: I'm in on it nine and a half.

975
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:22,720
Speaker 1: Like your buddy Chad said, just saying as a reminder

976
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 1: the Favorites Podcast. It's presented by Bet three six five.

977
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you

978
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 1: get more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every

979
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:31,839
Speaker 1: day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets

980
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:33,839
Speaker 1: to give you a chance to win more. Bet three

981
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 1: sixty five boost specific markets. You're winnings and even parlays,

982
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 1: and they don't stop there. Keep it out for their

983
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 1: biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost. Check

984
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 1: out the boost and see why it's never ordinary at

985
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older

986
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:50,760
Speaker 1: and president in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

987
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

988
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred one eight hundred

989
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 1: bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Right before

990
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 1: we get out here, our director of research, Evan Abrams,

991
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:05,320
Speaker 1: who is the engine behind the stats and nuggets you

992
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 1: here on the show and across our network, he is

993
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:08,359
Speaker 1: joining us.

994
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 2: Evan, you get the last word. The last word with

995
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 2: Evan Abrams. We're finished talking, all right, guys.

996
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 3: So if you like the underdogs, this week.

997
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 5: I think you're gonna love this one. So teams to

998
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:23,600
Speaker 5: win by double digits in the wildcard round facing a

999
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 5: team who didn't are seventeen and seven against the spread

1000
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:29,280
Speaker 5: in the next round over the last twenty years. Not shabby.

1001
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 5: When those teams are underdogs, they are seventeen and four

1002
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 5: against the spread. That is the Texans, that is the Bucks,

1003
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 5: that is also the Packers.

1004
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:39,839
Speaker 3: Now I gotta put a little bit of water on.

1005
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 5: The Packers for a second here, because this is Matt

1006
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:45,919
Speaker 5: Mitchell's favorite trend. If you're into travel trends, this one

1007
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 5: is a good San Francisco one. So we have a

1008
00:47:48,239 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 5: playoff road team traveling from Est Eastern Standard and Central

1009
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 5: Central Standard to West Coast on short rest. It's only

1010
00:47:56,239 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 5: happened eight times since two thousand and six. Those teams

1011
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 5: have lost seven of eight. Eight also failed to cover

1012
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 5: seven of eight. So travel in twenty twenty four definitely

1013
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 5: not what it used to be. But with that and

1014
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 5: the short rest hasn't been good for history. Now Simon

1015
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:14,720
Speaker 5: used his stat I'm gonna finish it. So Josh Allen

1016
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 5: plays really really well against good defenses in his career.

1017
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:23,360
Speaker 5: He is twenty six and one against the spread seventy

1018
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:27,240
Speaker 5: seven percent when facing a team allowing under twenty points

1019
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,840
Speaker 5: per game over the last twenty years. That is the

1020
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 5: second best of two hundred and forty seven quarterbacks. He's

1021
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 5: sandwiched between two pretty decent quarterbacks and Tom Brady and

1022
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 5: Peyton Manning at one In third and finally, Chad mentioned

1023
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 5: this one earlier.

1024
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:43,479
Speaker 3: I'm also going to finish the loop.

1025
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:45,799
Speaker 5: If the Lions close above a three and a half

1026
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:48,800
Speaker 5: point favorite, they'll be their biggest line as a favorite

1027
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 5: in a playoff game in franchise history.

1028
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 3: And one more.

1029
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 5: This is crazy, so in the regular season and postseason,

1030
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 5: the Lions have been favored by six points or more

1031
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 5: versus a winning team just twice in the last twenty years.

1032
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 5: They are oh and too straight up, oh and two

1033
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 5: against the spread, with the last game coming all the

1034
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 5: way in twenty twelve. Truly unprecedented times for Detroit.

1035
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:18,439
Speaker 1: It is insane how excited Detroit got a shout out

1036
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 1: at the Emmys. A guy who won an Emmy for

1037
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 1: Ted Lasso thanked the Detroit Lions.

1038
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,560
Speaker 2: Try what do you.

1039
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:30,880
Speaker 5: Think of that?

1040
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 4: More people watch our YouTube page than people watch the

1041
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 4: Ammy's chat.

1042
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:35,319
Speaker 3: I hope you know that.

1043
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's a compliment to our YouTube page.

1044
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: You're a diss on the Ammies. But now everybody, anyone

1045
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 1: who wasn't watching the Emmys now knows this. Uh to

1046
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 1: recap our foxhol is the bus plus six and a half,

1047
00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:51,880
Speaker 1: Salmon says Buffalo, minus two and a half our exec decision.

1048
00:49:52,239 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 1: I guess it's got to be San Francisco, but minus ten.

1049
00:49:55,040 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 1: I don't give a shooting star. Big Balls Houston plus

1050
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 1: nine and a half the Round Robin Houston, Detroit, San Francisco, Buffalo.

1051
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:06,479
Speaker 2: Download us from.

1052
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 1: Spotify, Apple, Podcast, wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe,

1053
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want, feedback as

1054
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:15,120
Speaker 1: a gift until we see you guys Sunday Night Live

1055
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 1: after the Chiefs Bills Game.

1056
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 2: I Love You. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1057
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1058
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1059
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler