1
00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:12,440
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a good one

2
00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:18,480
Speaker 1: sided rivalry. I'm Greg Rosenthal in Studio five, NFL Network

3
00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,479
Speaker 1: with one of my favorite people at the company in

4
00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:22,079
Speaker 1: the world.

5
00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:23,520
Speaker 2: It's Cynthia Freeland.

6
00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,160
Speaker 1: Yes, we are back picking games against the spread man

7
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:31,520
Speaker 1: versus model, your computer model. We're both four and five

8
00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:33,720
Speaker 1: on the season. Cynthia, I went too and one last week,

9
00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:36,480
Speaker 1: you went one in two. We're forgetting about the past.

10
00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,640
Speaker 1: It's been a tough season, it's been unpredictable. We look

11
00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,440
Speaker 1: forward and I'm gonna just I'm gonna kick us off

12
00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:44,280
Speaker 1: here and see if we're on the same page. Yep,

13
00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:49,360
Speaker 1: let's go Seahawks plus three point five to start it

14
00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:51,720
Speaker 1: off against your Lions. I'm not doing this as a

15
00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:53,120
Speaker 1: personal attack.

16
00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:54,040
Speaker 3: I don't take it as that.

17
00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:55,840
Speaker 2: I'm doing it as a bit of history.

18
00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,520
Speaker 1: So I mentioned it off the top, like a one

19
00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:00,680
Speaker 1: sided rivalry. You wouldn't think think that this is such

20
00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:02,400
Speaker 1: a one side rivalry, but it is. What did you

21
00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:05,520
Speaker 1: say on game debut? They haven't beaten them since twenty twelve.

22
00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:07,840
Speaker 1: That is outrageous and I know that next time. That

23
00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:08,920
Speaker 1: has nothing to do with.

24
00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:11,399
Speaker 4: This particular matchup in my heart, But.

25
00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,000
Speaker 1: Gino Smith and the Seahawks have won in a couple

26
00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:17,280
Speaker 1: of score fests against Dan Campbell's team. Again, it's different

27
00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,839
Speaker 1: coaching staff, so I don't think that tells us that much,

28
00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:22,600
Speaker 1: but the injury situation for the Lions is worrisome to me.

29
00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:24,240
Speaker 1: I think the Seahawks have a good chance to win

30
00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,800
Speaker 1: this game straight up. If you look at Gino Smith

31
00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:32,000
Speaker 1: versus man coverage, just you're outstanding seventy three percent completion percentage.

32
00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,440
Speaker 1: Who plays almost more man coverage than anyone in the league.

33
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,240
Speaker 1: It's the Detroit line. Only one team plays more man covers. Okay,

34
00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker 1: just so you know, second forty six or so. Wait,

35
00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,160
Speaker 1: you're with me on this. You're with me, like this

36
00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:43,520
Speaker 1: is going to be one of your three picks.

37
00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,360
Speaker 4: This is one of my three picks. Yeah, we are aligned.

38
00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,320
Speaker 1: Okay, So why why do you like the Seahawks against

39
00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,320
Speaker 1: your team other than you're kind of emotionally hedging.

40
00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,560
Speaker 4: I think I'm definitely emotionally hedging, But it only works

41
00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,040
Speaker 4: if your math also works for this whole man versus

42
00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:59,160
Speaker 4: model thing, and the model actually has that as one

43
00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,160
Speaker 4: of the highest out puts as well. Even though I

44
00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:04,160
Speaker 4: have the Lions winning in the straight up version of

45
00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,480
Speaker 4: the equation. Here's the reason number one for rank or

46
00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,200
Speaker 4: rag Now number two, Marcus Davenport, number three, Derek Barnes,

47
00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:13,840
Speaker 4: number four is Sam Laporta playing number five.

48
00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:15,200
Speaker 3: Like, keep going with.

49
00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,919
Speaker 4: This into report because it is a mile long and

50
00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:21,560
Speaker 4: that is a problem. But the Frank Ragnow one specifically

51
00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:25,760
Speaker 4: is massive because you haven't even seen Jared Goffe as

52
00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,040
Speaker 4: well good with play action this season, and he's had

53
00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,840
Speaker 4: the best run success rate in the league. So if

54
00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:32,720
Speaker 4: you're really good at running but play action isn't working

55
00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:34,960
Speaker 4: for you and you don't have your great center, it

56
00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:38,280
Speaker 4: is a gnarly ride. I do think there's gonna be

57
00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:39,720
Speaker 4: more than forty six and a half points in this.

58
00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:41,919
Speaker 4: So just so you know, you just throwing that one

59
00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:44,240
Speaker 4: out of there, that one's like, you know, you put.

60
00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:45,480
Speaker 3: The on your in your little note.

61
00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:47,000
Speaker 2: I got the extra picks for my notes.

62
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,800
Speaker 4: I guess you put mine on there because I will.

63
00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:51,760
Speaker 4: This is a this is going to be a scorefest

64
00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:54,320
Speaker 4: situation because I do think there are some tricks Ben Johnson.

65
00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:56,720
Speaker 4: This is like, maybe this is how he gets a job, right,

66
00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,160
Speaker 4: Mike McDonald got his job that Lion's game last year.

67
00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,680
Speaker 4: Mike McDonald that one of the reasons he got the game.

68
00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:03,880
Speaker 4: So now it's Ben Jonson start. Even though I don't

69
00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:04,639
Speaker 4: ever want him to leave.

70
00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:09,280
Speaker 1: I love that you mentioned that that. Look, Mike McDonald

71
00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:12,160
Speaker 1: had a game plan that made Jared Goff in this

72
00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,800
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions offense look worse than ever a year ago,

73
00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:20,520
Speaker 1: and Frank Ragnow their center. The on off splits are crazy.

74
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,440
Speaker 1: I know this is in basketball or hockey, but when

75
00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,680
Speaker 1: Frank Ragnow did not play last year, their offense was

76
00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,560
Speaker 1: just not the same. And he has a lot of responsibility.

77
00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:31,800
Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons why I think Jared Goff

78
00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,120
Speaker 1: has played so well in Detroit. Why Derek Carr I

79
00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:35,880
Speaker 1: think is off to a good start in New Orleans.

80
00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,720
Speaker 1: He took a little bit off his plate. And you

81
00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 1: have a great center in Frank Ragnow usually who makes

82
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,080
Speaker 1: so many of the protection calls and does such a

83
00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,520
Speaker 1: good job. It's just not the same. And yeah, this

84
00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,000
Speaker 1: Seattle defense, it's a prove it game because they've played

85
00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,320
Speaker 1: three bad offenses in a row. But ultimately I love

86
00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,320
Speaker 1: the way they're playing up front. I think their cornerbacks

87
00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,640
Speaker 1: are outstanding. Maybe there's some vulnerability in the middle of

88
00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:00,040
Speaker 1: the field and that's why it's going to be a

89
00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:01,920
Speaker 1: close game. But three and a half points in a game,

90
00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:03,480
Speaker 1: I think Detroit has a chance to win.

91
00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:04,080
Speaker 2: I kind of love it.

92
00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:05,800
Speaker 1: I love that we're on the same side, by the way,

93
00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:07,720
Speaker 1: because last week we went against each other.

94
00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:09,880
Speaker 2: Yep, I won. It was the Colts, but it was

95
00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:10,680
Speaker 2: kind of a weird game.

96
00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,440
Speaker 4: By the way, ken Walker, if he plays, he went

97
00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,440
Speaker 4: to Michigan State, there's like this emotion he that's gonna

98
00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:17,719
Speaker 4: be a problem for the lines, even though they've been

99
00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:19,320
Speaker 4: good at stopping the run. But remember I told you

100
00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:21,479
Speaker 4: all those linebackers are out. But this could be like

101
00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:23,960
Speaker 4: a Kenneth Walker, ken Walker, whatever you want to call him.

102
00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,000
Speaker 4: This could be like a hey, you guys up there,

103
00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:27,760
Speaker 4: and he's Lansing drive the seventy miles.

104
00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:29,960
Speaker 3: Southeast to Detroit. This could be a problem.

105
00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:32,080
Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned that, because, look, the Seahawks are

106
00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:34,560
Speaker 1: not a perfect team. They have not been run blocking well.

107
00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,320
Speaker 1: They've not really been pass blocking well other than their

108
00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,760
Speaker 1: left tackle, and so that could be problematic against left tackle.

109
00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,080
Speaker 4: Great right tackle, that's gonna be a problem against Aid.

110
00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:45,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, Aiden Hudginson. They just move him to wherever the

111
00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:48,400
Speaker 1: problem is. That's the smart way to do things. And

112
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:50,480
Speaker 1: the one thing Walker can.

113
00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:51,279
Speaker 2: Do that own forward.

114
00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,200
Speaker 4: That guy sounds like you should be awesome, but he's

115
00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:54,320
Speaker 4: allowed the highest pressure.

116
00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,920
Speaker 1: He sounds like Carson still, like an adult entertainer. I

117
00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:02,680
Speaker 1: think they they he joins that group. So I love

118
00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,520
Speaker 1: that we're aligned. Okay, we're aligned, SOS this if man

119
00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,720
Speaker 1: Vulursus model is to be trusted this year, we need

120
00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:09,000
Speaker 1: the Seahawks plus three and a half.

121
00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:10,000
Speaker 2: Give me your second pick.

122
00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:11,800
Speaker 4: Okay, so this is my second pick now, I just

123
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:13,559
Speaker 4: I just want to make sure that we're like staying

124
00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:17,120
Speaker 4: aligned here the Saints plus one and a half points.

125
00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,320
Speaker 4: I have the Saints winning, like winning, winning, straight up winning.

126
00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:22,880
Speaker 4: So if you're going to give me them plus a

127
00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,120
Speaker 4: point and a half, I'm really going to like this.

128
00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:25,840
Speaker 1: Why.

129
00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,320
Speaker 4: Okay, I understand there's recency bias along with some of

130
00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:30,799
Speaker 4: these lines where last week you saw the Eagles shut

131
00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:33,279
Speaker 4: them down and you know they're away, et cetera, et cetera.

132
00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:36,760
Speaker 4: But number one, the Saints have the best NFC road

133
00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:40,280
Speaker 4: divisional rate, so fourteen games to four. I understand some

134
00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:42,240
Speaker 4: of that is Sean Payton or Drewsbie's but don't worry

135
00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:42,520
Speaker 4: about it.

136
00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:43,919
Speaker 3: We can deal with those details.

137
00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:45,919
Speaker 1: Like even but you know what Dennis Allen to you

138
00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,000
Speaker 1: to be fair at Dennis Allen was on all those

139
00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,359
Speaker 1: staffs exactly down pretty good Falcons offenses exactly.

140
00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:55,040
Speaker 4: But they the Falcons defense doesn't have the same horses

141
00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:57,840
Speaker 4: that the Eagles defense has in order to not just

142
00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,799
Speaker 4: stop the outside zone run, but also get those pressures

143
00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,520
Speaker 4: up that really up the gut that really bother Derek Carr.

144
00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,240
Speaker 4: So they don't have the personnel to do that. Matt

145
00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:09,479
Speaker 4: Judon is the only guy that's really getting any pressure

146
00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,680
Speaker 4: and that does not an entire zone running outside zone

147
00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,840
Speaker 4: running and Derek Carr stopping team make right, Like they

148
00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,240
Speaker 4: just don't have enough horses to be able to stop them.

149
00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:21,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you look at their linebackers, Troy Anderson

150
00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:23,840
Speaker 1: and I mean Kaden Ellis is a good player, used

151
00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:25,599
Speaker 1: to be on the Saints and stuff. But they're a

152
00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:27,960
Speaker 1: team I think you can push around a little bit.

153
00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,680
Speaker 1: I'm with you. It's really funny you pick them because

154
00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:32,880
Speaker 1: that they were on my list and I was really

155
00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:36,599
Speaker 1: debating whether they should be my third pick or not.

156
00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,200
Speaker 1: Here's it, I'm gonna Actually, I'm gonna They're gonna be

157
00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,360
Speaker 1: my extra pick. We're aligned, were aligned, but I don't

158
00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:43,640
Speaker 1: want to be too aligned. But but man versus Model,

159
00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:45,880
Speaker 1: it's more like Man and Model this week. Yeah, we

160
00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,520
Speaker 1: love the Saints, yes, plus one and a half.

161
00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:50,600
Speaker 3: I think this is a Ryan Nielsen revenge game.

162
00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:53,440
Speaker 4: I mean like, like, I know he's at the Jags now, right,

163
00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:56,120
Speaker 4: but like they're all they both had him at certain points.

164
00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:58,719
Speaker 4: So like this Saints defense that was two teams ago,

165
00:06:58,760 --> 00:06:59,720
Speaker 4: and this Falcon syve is.

166
00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:01,320
Speaker 3: So it's like he's not even there.

167
00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:02,840
Speaker 2: There is a lot of intermixing.

168
00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:09,760
Speaker 1: Harry Fontano in the front office, those are like, yeah,

169
00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,160
Speaker 1: I just love this rivalry. But I think if if

170
00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,960
Speaker 1: you just were soberly looking at the first three weeks

171
00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:17,360
Speaker 1: of play and.

172
00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:19,960
Speaker 2: The data and going to look at it drunk right going.

173
00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,720
Speaker 1: Into the season, we thought these teams were roughly equal,

174
00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,800
Speaker 1: at least I did. Uh, then yeah, it doesn't surprise

175
00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,800
Speaker 1: me that the Model spits out road victory. And if

176
00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,640
Speaker 1: you look at like Dvoa, which I really respect as

177
00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:35,000
Speaker 1: kind of a you know, one size fits all metric,

178
00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:37,800
Speaker 1: the Saints are second so far and the Falcons are

179
00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:41,200
Speaker 1: like seventeenth because the Saints have played three good opponents

180
00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,480
Speaker 1: they I mean, maybe not three good opponents obviously with

181
00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,040
Speaker 1: the Panthers, but three really high quality games where you

182
00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:48,440
Speaker 1: blow two teams out, you lose a close game against

183
00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:50,320
Speaker 1: the Eagles. I'm with you, all right. My second pick,

184
00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,480
Speaker 1: this is the one I felt, uh second, you know,

185
00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:58,040
Speaker 1: most strong second strongly about Commander's Cardinals, not the winner.

186
00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,480
Speaker 1: I do like the Cardinals if I had to pick

187
00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:02,440
Speaker 1: one minus three and a half, but I don't feel

188
00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:03,120
Speaker 1: crazy about that.

189
00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:04,160
Speaker 2: But I like the over.

190
00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:08,040
Speaker 1: I believe it's fifty and a half right now or

191
00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:11,360
Speaker 1: fifty word, depending on where you're looking. I believe that

192
00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:14,600
Speaker 1: this is the worst defense in the NFL in Washington.

193
00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:16,760
Speaker 2: They can't cover anyone.

194
00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,160
Speaker 1: They try to play man coverage like they're putting Sandra

195
00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:23,120
Speaker 1: Still out there on an island against Jamar Chase because

196
00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:24,880
Speaker 1: they don't have any other options. This is a kid

197
00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:26,760
Speaker 1: who's a rookie that maybe should be playing on the

198
00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:28,320
Speaker 1: slot or maybe shouldn't be playing at all.

199
00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:29,720
Speaker 2: They just don't have players.

200
00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,760
Speaker 1: Dan Quinn is suddenly going for every fourth down because

201
00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:36,240
Speaker 1: he knows he doesn't have a defense. Like pick a

202
00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:38,600
Speaker 1: defensive stat that exists in the world.

203
00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,000
Speaker 3: Touchdowns allowed in the past game.

204
00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:42,800
Speaker 2: The Commanders are terrible at it.

205
00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:46,720
Speaker 1: How about rushing efficiency, how about yards allowed per drive,

206
00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,280
Speaker 1: points allowed for drive, you pick any defensive stat that

207
00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,480
Speaker 1: you want, the Commanders are the very worst in the

208
00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:52,920
Speaker 1: league at it. And I think this is going to

209
00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:57,000
Speaker 1: be one of those Kyler Murray seasons where fantasy wise,

210
00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:02,959
Speaker 1: maybe even MVP race wise, he destroys in some matchups where, yeah,

211
00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,400
Speaker 1: he's going to have some weeks where against good defense

212
00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:06,240
Speaker 1: is where he struggles.

213
00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:07,560
Speaker 2: But he has those weeks.

214
00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,720
Speaker 1: Where it's like the four to five touchdown weeks, the

215
00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,679
Speaker 1: eighty rushing yards two hundred and fifty passing yard weeks,

216
00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:13,520
Speaker 1: And I think that's it.

217
00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:13,719
Speaker 2: Now.

218
00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,400
Speaker 1: We saw on the other side of the ball, Jaden Daniels,

219
00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:20,400
Speaker 1: he's gonna get his Kyler Murray. I mean, Cliff Kingsbury

220
00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,360
Speaker 1: is setting up like wide open receivers for him. He's

221
00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:25,559
Speaker 1: hit and throws down the field. I don't think Arizona's

222
00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:29,000
Speaker 1: that great either defensively, so I project like over sixty.

223
00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I know no model would do that, but

224
00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:32,959
Speaker 1: I like like thirty three to thirty one, so I

225
00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:34,280
Speaker 1: think it goes way over fifty.

226
00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:36,480
Speaker 4: If I were picking on my gut, I would actually

227
00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,640
Speaker 4: agree with you. But the model has something different primarily

228
00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:41,880
Speaker 4: because of something that you hit on for both sides.

229
00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:42,680
Speaker 3: The run game.

230
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,000
Speaker 4: The rushing efficiencies for both teams, not just the quarterback

231
00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:48,319
Speaker 4: but also the running backs, the main running backs for

232
00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,120
Speaker 4: each team. That slows pace down and sometimes when you

233
00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,840
Speaker 4: have those slow paces, or when you take that fourth down,

234
00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:55,920
Speaker 4: that's like a roll of the dice, right, and if

235
00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:57,440
Speaker 4: you go for it on fourth down, you'll punt it.

236
00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,080
Speaker 3: Then it all changes.

237
00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:01,480
Speaker 1: Teams are crazy, so I that a'll make sense, and

238
00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:03,360
Speaker 1: that's why I like statistically, I get it. But you

239
00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,280
Speaker 1: look at weak one with you gut wise, but I

240
00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,240
Speaker 1: don't Week one, Bill's Cardinals. Like the Cardinals, it was

241
00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,719
Speaker 1: all these slow drives, but they still got the thirty four,

242
00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:13,440
Speaker 1: yeah to twenty eight. You look at Commanders Vegels last week.

243
00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,280
Speaker 1: Sometimes it was those slow drives and it was thirty seven,

244
00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:16,760
Speaker 1: thirty three.

245
00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:18,520
Speaker 2: You're right, you don't usually score every.

246
00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,679
Speaker 4: No, but that's why it's the drive, like the time

247
00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:25,280
Speaker 4: per drive, and typically you aren't getting six points per drive,

248
00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:26,480
Speaker 4: seven points per drive.

249
00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:28,080
Speaker 2: The game is what we need. Though.

250
00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,720
Speaker 1: This is the antidote to the low scoring NFL Commander's

251
00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:33,640
Speaker 1: Cardinals over that is my second pick.

252
00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:36,080
Speaker 2: All right, wrap your picks up. Third pick.

253
00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:37,559
Speaker 4: I think we're going to be on the opposite side

254
00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,120
Speaker 4: of this one. But I have Minnesota and I'm getting

255
00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,800
Speaker 4: I have Minnesota winning out right, So if you're gonna

256
00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:44,360
Speaker 4: also give me two and a half points, then I'm

257
00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:47,720
Speaker 4: gonna really really like this. I watched that defense we

258
00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:48,720
Speaker 4: talked about this last week.

259
00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,640
Speaker 3: CJ Stroud. You can't blitz him. You know why he's

260
00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:54,079
Speaker 3: he's great against the blitz. It turns out they blitzed

261
00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:55,240
Speaker 3: him fifty percent of the time.

262
00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,200
Speaker 4: They had the most pressures last week twenty three total pressures.

263
00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,920
Speaker 4: Thirteen came when they were blitzing, ten when they weren't blitzing.

264
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:02,400
Speaker 4: You know how many sacks they had five? You know

265
00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,960
Speaker 4: how many came without blitzing, three and then two when

266
00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:05,679
Speaker 4: they were blitzing.

267
00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:06,240
Speaker 2: So sign.

268
00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,680
Speaker 4: It's a really good sign because like a lot of

269
00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:12,400
Speaker 4: times in football, we can identify what another team's weakness is,

270
00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,280
Speaker 4: but how to adapt without losing your identity is a

271
00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:17,800
Speaker 4: really tricky thing to do. And Brian Flores and this

272
00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:19,839
Speaker 4: Minnesota defense they absolutely pulled that.

273
00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:20,840
Speaker 3: Off against the Texans.

274
00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:23,520
Speaker 4: I think this is an interesting one at lambeau Field.

275
00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,040
Speaker 4: Understand there are some parameters that are different. We have

276
00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,200
Speaker 4: a little bit of a question mark at the quarterback position,

277
00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:29,240
Speaker 4: so they're going.

278
00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:31,120
Speaker 1: To have to a big deal though, isn't it like

279
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,120
Speaker 1: Jordan Love and theleik Willis that's a big difference to me,

280
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:34,760
Speaker 1: Like I'm going to pick straight up there. I don't

281
00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:36,640
Speaker 1: feel confident in this game no matter who's the quarterbright.

282
00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,680
Speaker 1: I don't feel confident in this game just generally. But

283
00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:42,640
Speaker 1: I would take Jordan Love if he's if they're starting,

284
00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:43,880
Speaker 1: and I wouldn't otherwise.

285
00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,480
Speaker 4: I would like take Jayden Reed in fantasy if Jordan

286
00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,160
Speaker 4: Love's starting, But I wouldn't take them either way under

287
00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,480
Speaker 4: either condition, which is why it's one of my favorite ones,

288
00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:55,720
Speaker 4: because I don't think that there's enough horsepower there, especially

289
00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,560
Speaker 4: when you factor in that the Packers defense is like

290
00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,640
Speaker 4: a roller coaster, Like they have the most interceptions. They

291
00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:03,880
Speaker 4: have seven interceptions, but they all sold out the second

292
00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,640
Speaker 4: most yards after the catch over expected, so you're either

293
00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,880
Speaker 4: running on them or they're completely turning.

294
00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:10,040
Speaker 3: The ball over.

295
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:12,640
Speaker 4: So that's like like if that isn't like a home

296
00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:14,640
Speaker 4: run swinger, like home run strikeout.

297
00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:16,680
Speaker 1: I don't know what is I struggled with this one.

298
00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:18,800
Speaker 1: You know, the Packers events have been playing bitter lately,

299
00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:21,960
Speaker 1: but it's been again to Anthony Richardson and Will Levis,

300
00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:25,200
Speaker 1: I kind of just went with like man. Going into

301
00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:27,960
Speaker 1: the season, Packers are only two and a half point

302
00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,320
Speaker 1: favorites against the Vikings. I know the Vikings defense is

303
00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:31,520
Speaker 1: shown to be a level that.

304
00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,560
Speaker 3: We cold what about Sam Darnold.

305
00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,640
Speaker 1: But coaching, to me, it's a rare case where Kevin

306
00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:37,400
Speaker 1: O'Connell's is not a coaching advantage.

307
00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:38,319
Speaker 2: It's even because.

308
00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,600
Speaker 4: It's you know what, we didn't bring up what Aaron

309
00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:41,960
Speaker 4: Jones revenge?

310
00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:44,199
Speaker 3: Okay, Aaron Jones revenge.

311
00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:45,920
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones is awesome.

312
00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:49,480
Speaker 4: But Aaron Jones is gonna get so much revenge twice

313
00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:50,520
Speaker 4: in the end zone.

314
00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 3: It's all about Aaron Jones.

315
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:55,240
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones doesn't want revenge. He wrote a nice piece.

316
00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:57,040
Speaker 4: You just tell me to relax. That's so like Aaron

317
00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:57,760
Speaker 4: Rodgers view.

318
00:12:57,880 --> 00:12:59,640
Speaker 1: I'm just saying, like, Aaron Jones is one of my

319
00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:01,760
Speaker 1: favorite players in league top five and success right, one

320
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,280
Speaker 1: of my favorite running backs. But the Packers They're running

321
00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:05,920
Speaker 1: game is among the best in the league too.

322
00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:07,160
Speaker 2: So everyone won with that one.

323
00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:09,079
Speaker 1: I help you win with that one because I'm not

324
00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,200
Speaker 1: going to go against you here or even on my

325
00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,400
Speaker 1: extra ones. That one, to me was just a question mark.

326
00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:15,840
Speaker 1: You helped make up my mind for my third pick

327
00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:18,920
Speaker 1: because you picked Saints and I was struggling with it.

328
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:22,160
Speaker 1: I'm going to go Texans minus six and a half now,

329
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:24,120
Speaker 1: I've seen it at six and a half or seven,

330
00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,200
Speaker 1: but as we are going to tape, I see some

331
00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,200
Speaker 1: six and a half's out there, so that's a big difference.

332
00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:29,959
Speaker 1: You want to get the six and a half if

333
00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:34,440
Speaker 1: you can, But either way, I'm going Texans. Okay, they're

334
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:36,439
Speaker 1: coming off a game against the Vikings.

335
00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:37,480
Speaker 3: I'm putting your points up here.

336
00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:38,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, yep.

337
00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,840
Speaker 1: They're going up a game against the Vikings, which was

338
00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,839
Speaker 1: humbling for them. I believe them to be a Super

339
00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:48,959
Speaker 1: Bowl contender, a very solid week to week defense. Who's

340
00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,760
Speaker 1: going to get after the poor sisters offenses in the league,

341
00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,480
Speaker 1: of which I can include the Jaguars as one. So

342
00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,079
Speaker 1: like a bad offensive line, an offense with no confidence.

343
00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,400
Speaker 1: And this is something I gonna mention about Washington too,

344
00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,560
Speaker 1: which is why I do like Arizona in that game

345
00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:07,840
Speaker 1: going on the road again on a short week, Like,

346
00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,960
Speaker 1: the numbers for that against the spread are not good.

347
00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:13,480
Speaker 1: Like if you're on the road on Monday night and

348
00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:15,320
Speaker 1: then you're on the road again in a short week,

349
00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:16,959
Speaker 1: even if you did well on the Monday night with

350
00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:20,680
Speaker 1: Jacksonville very much did not, Like, that's just a disadvantage

351
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:22,720
Speaker 1: that you don't want to have. Yes, it's a division game,

352
00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:25,800
Speaker 1: so there's some familiarity there, but the Texans to me

353
00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:29,400
Speaker 1: are just a class above. And I do like teams

354
00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:31,960
Speaker 1: that I believe to be real deal contenders coming off losses.

355
00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:35,480
Speaker 1: I do think there's an emotional and mental focus sort

356
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,760
Speaker 1: of aspect, and then I look at the matchups. Yes,

357
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,840
Speaker 1: Jacksonville might get a cornerback or two back this week

358
00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,080
Speaker 1: Darnold Savage and or Jerry and Jones, but like, that's

359
00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,560
Speaker 1: still a mismatch against Nico Collins and Stefan Diggs. We'll

360
00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:49,760
Speaker 1: see if Tank Dell is out there. So I like

361
00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:52,200
Speaker 1: the mismatch on that side of the ball, and then

362
00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:53,920
Speaker 1: on the other side of the ball, I really do

363
00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:57,440
Speaker 1: trust this Texans defense and what Demico Ryans is cooking up.

364
00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,560
Speaker 1: So overall, it is a lot of points, but Thears

365
00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,080
Speaker 1: to me, are a bottom five team in the NFL

366
00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:04,920
Speaker 1: against like let's say a top eight team.

367
00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:06,960
Speaker 4: That's that's not too many points for me. They lead

368
00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,800
Speaker 4: the league in pressure rate. They that's that's the Houston Texans.

369
00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:11,160
Speaker 2: Of course.

370
00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,080
Speaker 4: When I'm looking at the opportunity that they have from

371
00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:17,200
Speaker 4: kind of last year and you talk about a very

372
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:19,480
Speaker 4: good team, what do they do after a win? Well,

373
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,760
Speaker 4: if you look at last year, I mean CJ. Strout

374
00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:23,520
Speaker 4: is five and one in those things, let's go. So

375
00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:26,280
Speaker 4: that's another fact there. Like they are a good team,

376
00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:28,640
Speaker 4: things happen throughout the course of the season. I think

377
00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 4: on game debut you were like, you know, this team

378
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,120
Speaker 4: is better. I picked them for the super Bowl, but

379
00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:34,680
Speaker 4: I don't have them winning every game.

380
00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,120
Speaker 3: So that was just I wasn't going to get away.

381
00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:38,680
Speaker 3: You can't give it away.

382
00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:39,720
Speaker 2: They got a win shot.

383
00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:42,120
Speaker 1: And it's two different mediums. It's okay, let's give let's

384
00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:43,520
Speaker 1: give our man versus model lists.

385
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,480
Speaker 4: Okay, But but the point is is you know they

386
00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,680
Speaker 4: that even good teams don't win every single game. So

387
00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,000
Speaker 4: I'm with you though. It's how you rebound, it's what you.

388
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:51,360
Speaker 2: Make of it.

389
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,480
Speaker 4: If you are a fantasy player, just watch that little

390
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,840
Speaker 4: Q on there's a Q on Nico Collins status, so

391
00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:57,520
Speaker 4: just watch that.

392
00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:58,520
Speaker 3: It doesn't change anything.

393
00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,200
Speaker 4: Let's go Dalton Schultz though, I think that will be

394
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:03,320
Speaker 4: a good opportunity if there's no Nico Collins.

395
00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,080
Speaker 2: Okay, And of course the fund explit the review.

396
00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,720
Speaker 1: We're both on the Seahawks plus three and a hot half.

397
00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:13,320
Speaker 1: I also agree with you that the Saints plus one

398
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:14,520
Speaker 1: and a half is a good one, but that's not

399
00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:17,040
Speaker 1: one of my picks. That is your second pick, and

400
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,320
Speaker 1: your final pick is Vikings plus two and a half,

401
00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:23,480
Speaker 1: and I am taking the Texans minus six and a half.

402
00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:25,720
Speaker 1: I agree with you on the Seahawks, and I'm also

403
00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:28,000
Speaker 1: going over commanders in cards and you mentioned the note

404
00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:29,760
Speaker 1: card that everyone's talking about it.

405
00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:30,920
Speaker 3: Everyone is, you know what.

406
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:32,720
Speaker 4: People stop me on the streets, they're like, can you

407
00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:34,120
Speaker 4: give me a picture of Greg's no card?

408
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:35,960
Speaker 1: The country is talking about it. They're like, why is

409
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:37,560
Speaker 1: Greg four and five with his main picks?

410
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,520
Speaker 3: But Greg, why won't Greg tell you the note cards?

411
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,560
Speaker 1: So we went back and I think checked out the

412
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,960
Speaker 1: note card record for the season I think is nine

413
00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:46,800
Speaker 1: and three or eight and three.

414
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:47,800
Speaker 2: I gotta go check week one.

415
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:49,720
Speaker 3: There's like a divice on fire that comes into your I.

416
00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:50,920
Speaker 2: Didn't feel as confident this week.

417
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,520
Speaker 1: That might be a reflection of the picks not going

418
00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:57,240
Speaker 1: that well overall this year. But on the note cards

419
00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:58,920
Speaker 1: have even great. I only have two for you this week.

420
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:01,160
Speaker 1: The Saints, I'm with you, yep, plus one and a half,

421
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:02,880
Speaker 1: and then I also like the Titans plus one and

422
00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 1: a half.

423
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:04,159
Speaker 2: In Miami.

424
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,240
Speaker 1: We don't know who the starting quarterback is in Miami,

425
00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,119
Speaker 1: Snoopuntley would make me slightly more afraid. But when I

426
00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,080
Speaker 1: watched the Dolphins at a week week base, I think

427
00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:12,840
Speaker 1: they're the worst team in the NFL. I think they

428
00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:17,080
Speaker 1: had major problems with two A tongue of Iloa again Dvoa.

429
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,720
Speaker 1: They're thirty two, so that matches my eye test. Like

430
00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,240
Speaker 1: the Titans. They have a decent defense. They're twenty five

431
00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,120
Speaker 1: to twenty six. I think that's enough of a gap,

432
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:25,880
Speaker 1: and some of that data is with to a tongue

433
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:28,520
Speaker 1: of Iloa as their quarterback and they're still thirty second.

434
00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,159
Speaker 1: I think it's enough that their offensive line. I just

435
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:33,639
Speaker 1: don't trust them to win any game right now. I

436
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:35,480
Speaker 1: think the Titans get their first win of the season

437
00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 1: and I know your model agreed with me on that one.

438
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:38,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, model agrees with you on that.

439
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:40,440
Speaker 4: The one thing that I do want to point out

440
00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,879
Speaker 4: about the Titans that maybe people are forgetting.

441
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:44,119
Speaker 3: I don't know if they're forgetting or not.

442
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 4: Calvin Ridley's ability to score touchdowns turns out hasn't gone anywhere.

443
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:49,760
Speaker 4: So I'm looking at this game and if you're looking

444
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,480
Speaker 4: for a touchdowns more in this matchup looks to Ridley, you.

445
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:52,919
Speaker 2: Know, I like that.

446
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:54,919
Speaker 1: And you know what, Nuk Hopkins returned last week and

447
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 1: he looked fantastic.

448
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,240
Speaker 3: I love he is one of my all time favorite players.

449
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,800
Speaker 3: So it was like a vintage like sketch, like it

450
00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 3: just vintage.

451
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 2: I love the goal making plays despite not being that open.

452
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,120
Speaker 4: Body control ridiculous. He's like, he's one of my all

453
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 4: time favorites.

454
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:10,320
Speaker 2: All right, That's what Cynthia does.

455
00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:16,360
Speaker 1: Check out her YouTube every week Numbers Game Man Versus Model. Obviously,

456
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,080
Speaker 1: we will be back next week to tell you about

457
00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,200
Speaker 1: how being on the same side of these picks really

458
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:22,639
Speaker 1: paid off. But yeah, you should check out if you

459
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,159
Speaker 1: want more Cynthia Numbers Game.

460
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 2: It's outstanding.

461
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:29,120
Speaker 1: We will be back on NFL Daily on Sunday.

462
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:29,520
Speaker 2: Night.

463
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:33,080
Speaker 1: It's our flagship big show of the week, with Patrick

464
00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:37,680
Speaker 1: Claybon and Nick Schook recapping all the games. Until then,

465
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:41,640
Speaker 1: football is back. It's been back, It'll never not be back.