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Speaker 1: What's up, guys, how are you happy? Sunday?

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Speaker 2: Welcome into another episode of the dal Juice Podcast with

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Speaker 2: me Matt Peralta. You guys can follow me across all

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Speaker 2: of my socials at Sports Talk Matt. Unfortunately two and

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Speaker 2: three day yesterday, the weird party yesterday is that we

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Speaker 2: did not get a single bet wrong in baseball, but

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Speaker 2: we did not get a single bet right in football.

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Speaker 2: Miami hangs on to beat Florida State BAMA and Vandy

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Speaker 2: Vandy with two red zone turnovers that would have probably

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Speaker 2: got us there to go over. Unfortunately, those turnovers and

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Speaker 2: those points early were lacking, so that game stays under.

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Speaker 2: Texas does not look good at all. Again, so I

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Speaker 2: went against the market. Was wrong there. I went with

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Speaker 2: the market with Florida State lost, went against the market

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Speaker 2: with Texas lost. The beautiful thing is the Brewers are

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Speaker 2: still our cash cow and the Yankees come in easily

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Speaker 2: with an over as they got thumped by the Blue

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Speaker 2: Jays two and three day down one point three units

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Speaker 2: on the day. It is a Sunday, that means it

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Speaker 2: is a live stream day. At noon Eastern time nine

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Speaker 2: am Pacific time, Andrew Ericson will join me to break

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Speaker 2: down the entire slate of Week five games in the

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Speaker 2: NFL on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Looking forward to

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Speaker 2: seeing you all over there. I'll give you additional bets,

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Speaker 2: plays and props as well as everything ericson likes for

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Speaker 2: this day on Sunday as well. So noon eastern nine

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Speaker 2: am Pacific time live on the Betting Pros YouTube channel

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Speaker 2: for a full breakdown on every game happening today in

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Speaker 2: the NFFL. Let me tell you about our friends at

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Speaker 2: all these streaks that were alive entering today's games on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: Chargers Commanders.

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Speaker 2: The Chargers are looking to bounce back and they're favored

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Speaker 2: against Washington. Washington hasn't even covered the spread the last

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Speaker 2: four times they've been dogs. Buffalo has won thirteen in

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Speaker 2: a row at home. Philly has won twelve games in

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Speaker 2: a row at home. Adam Thielen has recorded twenty one

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Speaker 2: or more receiving yards in thirty two straight games in October.

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Speaker 1: That's thirty two.

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Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts has hit pay dirt in six necative games

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Speaker 2: against the AFC for at any time touchdown. So much

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Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and for Gina. Okay, let's start

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Speaker 2: talking about the Cowboys in their game today on the

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Speaker 2: road up against the Jets. So there's some interesting numbers

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Speaker 2: here going into this game that I think it's worth

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Speaker 2: pointing out. Dak Prescott since twenty seventeen, has started seven

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Speaker 2: games at MetLife Stadium. He's six and one straight up.

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Speaker 2: That's the most wins outside of AT and T Stadium

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Speaker 2: for any stadium for Dak Prescott. He's also six and

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Speaker 2: one against the number since twenty nineteen as a road

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Speaker 2: favorite when coming off of a previous primetime game. If

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Speaker 2: you remember, the Cowboys tied on Sunday Night, so they

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Speaker 2: are one, two and one up against the oh to

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Speaker 2: four Jets. Justin Fields has made forty seven starts in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. He is fourteen and thirty three straight up.

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Speaker 2: When his opponent scores more than twenty points, justin fields

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Speaker 2: is oh to twenty five straight up six eighteen and

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Speaker 2: one against the number when they score twenty or less

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Speaker 2: justin fields is thirteen and nine against the spread, So

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Speaker 2: watch for that. If Dak and company gets to twenty.

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Speaker 2: We feel pretty good about caching this number. The Cowboys

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Speaker 2: are only favored by one and a half points. Scott

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Speaker 2: against bad teams hits at a sixty four percent clip,

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Speaker 2: which is pretty good. Teams under five hundred covering I

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Speaker 2: started winning those games by an average of nine point

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Speaker 2: six points.

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Speaker 1: There've been some issues.

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Speaker 2: You know, on the road where they haven't played great,

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Speaker 2: But the Cowboys are throwing the ball downfield so often.

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Speaker 2: I think this Jets defense is just not going to

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Speaker 2: be able to contain it. And I don't trust Justin

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Speaker 2: Fields to be able to score. The Jets are just

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Speaker 2: not a good football team. Aaron Glenn is the third

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Speaker 2: Jets coach in franchise history to lose their first four games.

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Speaker 2: Adam Gaze did it in twenty nineteen and Lou Holtz

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Speaker 2: did it in nineteen seventy six. Cowboys. It's essentially a

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Speaker 2: money line bet here. I think the Cowboys are deeper,

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Speaker 2: their offense is better. I know it's on the road,

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Speaker 2: it's a day game. Dak loves playing in New York

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Speaker 2: under the bright lights. Let's go ahead and lay the

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Speaker 2: points here, Dak Prescott Mi just one and a half

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Speaker 2: for one point one units to come in and beat

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Speaker 2: the Jets. Now, let's go to Sunday night Patriots and

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Speaker 2: the Bills. So I've been sort of all over on

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Speaker 2: this game.

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Speaker 1: At the moment.

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Speaker 2: I want to take the Patriots plus eight and a half,

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Speaker 2: but I think there's a better play here, and if

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Speaker 2: you can get six in the first half, I think

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Speaker 2: that's the number that I really would like. But it's

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Speaker 2: not regularly available. It's mostly on shore. It's mostly five

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Speaker 2: and a half. You may find a six in the

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Speaker 2: morning floating around in the first half, and I think

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Speaker 2: this is the way to play this. I think the

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Speaker 2: emotions of the night game, the emotions of the night

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Speaker 2: game on primetime with Drake May against Josh Allen. We've

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Speaker 2: seen the Bills sort of fool around here and not

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Speaker 2: take their opponent all that seriously when they are big favorites,

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Speaker 2: like last week up against the Saints and the Patriots

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Speaker 2: I think their defense is going to tire out late

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Speaker 2: against the Bills, but early in the game, I think

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Speaker 2: they'll be able to keep themselves close and keep themselves

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Speaker 2: in the game. Josh Allen in fourteen career starts against

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Speaker 2: the Patriots, he's just five and nine against the number

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Speaker 2: in the first first half, and he's lost five in

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Speaker 2: a row against the Patriots, including the two games that

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Speaker 2: Drake May played last year against the Bills, in which

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Speaker 2: Drake May and the Patriots were two to zero ats

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Speaker 2: wise against Josh Allen and this team. I'm not debating

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Speaker 2: if the Bills are are tremendous and there's a scary

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Speaker 2: number here. The Bills were fourteen and a half point

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Speaker 2: favorites against the Saints. They didn't cover teams after closing

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Speaker 2: as fourteen points or more since twenty eighteen are in

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Speaker 2: the net in the next week are forty one, twenty

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Speaker 2: eight and one against the number in twenty one and

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Speaker 2: thirteen at home. Josh Allen doesn't lose these games. He's

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Speaker 2: thirty two and four straight up as a favorite of

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Speaker 2: seven points or more. You should one hundred percent be

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Speaker 2: looking at teasing this game down and from eight down

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Speaker 2: to two and taking the Bills. Okay, this is a

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Speaker 2: teaser special game, but for me, I have a little

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Speaker 2: weird spider sense going on here about upsets and about

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Speaker 2: how home teams have dominated and it's in prime time

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Speaker 2: and the Patriots at two and two.

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Speaker 1: The Bills might not be up to it.

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Speaker 2: The Bills might make a mistake or two, they might

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Speaker 2: turn the football over. I mean, the Bills don't really

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Speaker 2: cover this. If the Bills close at eight and a half,

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Speaker 2: where they are right now, and they don't cover, they

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Speaker 2: would join just the twenty twenty two Bucks as teams

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Speaker 2: to lose three straight games against the spread as favorites

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Speaker 2: of eight points or more dating back fifteen years in

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Speaker 2: the NFL. So they're due to have a breakout game

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Speaker 2: and to cover. But let's see. I mean, there are

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Speaker 2: teams that have not done great with this situation where

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Speaker 2: the books keep on thinking that everyone's gonna bet them,

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Speaker 2: and they're not nearly as good as the books are

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Speaker 2: making it, and the public keeps on laying it with

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Speaker 2: the favorite and the Patriots or the dog cover like

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Speaker 2: the Saints last week, It'll be the Patriots this week.

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Speaker 1: I think the first.

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Speaker 2: Half, I think you can take the Patriots into the game,

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Speaker 2: but I'll take them for the first half plus five

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Speaker 2: and a half. I want six six out there. I'd

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Speaker 2: rather have six, but I'll take five and a half.

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Speaker 2: That's what's available right now overnight. Not every book has

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Speaker 2: their first half numbers up. But if you get the

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Speaker 2: Patriots plus six in the first half, I take it.

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Speaker 2: I like the Pats to keep the game close in

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Speaker 2: the first half and then maybe get tired again in

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Speaker 2: the second half. In Buffalo Patriots plus five and a

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Speaker 2: half in the first half. On Sunday Night Football, the teaser,

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Speaker 2: let's talk about the Colts in their game against the

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Speaker 2: Raiders and the Cardinals in their game against the Titans.

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Speaker 1: Well, look from a Raiders.

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Speaker 2: Perspective, let's look at this here for a second, because

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Speaker 2: the Raiders are bad, like just they're bad, and then

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Speaker 2: the Raiders are going to struggle here, Shane Steiken in

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Speaker 2: the Colts after what happened last week with the loss

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Speaker 2: to the Rams, I'm a believer, Okay, the number seven.

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Speaker 2: The Colts are three and one straight up in three

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Speaker 2: and one ats since twenty twenty that the week after

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Speaker 2: a team loses its first game against the number they

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Speaker 2: are only covering at a forty five percent clip, which

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Speaker 2: is not great to be quite honest. But Gino Smith

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Speaker 2: has turned the football over so often that it's insane.

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Speaker 2: You got six picks at home, only one on the road.

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Speaker 2: But I just don't know where we're going to go

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Speaker 2: here if he starts turning the football over consistently. Shane

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Speaker 2: Steichen has bounced back pretty well in games in which

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Speaker 2: his teams have turned the ball over three or more

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Speaker 2: times the week prior. He's five and two against the number.

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Speaker 2: Daniel Jones has been tremendous at home. He was tremendous

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Speaker 2: last week. They didn't lose because of him. I just

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Speaker 2: don't like this Raiders offense, even with Ashton genty. I'll

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Speaker 2: pull it down from the Colts minus seven to the

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Speaker 2: Colts minus one. Just get the Colts to win the game,

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Speaker 2: and I think we can make a lot of money

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Speaker 2: this year just fading the Titans. I think when the

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Speaker 2: quarterback stands up there and says, we ask believe them

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Speaker 2: when when they say that, when they talk about how

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Speaker 2: bad they are. This number is seven the Titans against

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Speaker 2: the number over Your last twenty one games are three

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Speaker 2: to eighteen against the spread over their last thirty six games.

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Speaker 2: They're eight twenty seven to one against the spread their

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Speaker 2: twenty five games last twenty five games. Their record of

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Speaker 2: four to twenty and one against the spread is the

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Speaker 2: worst mark of any team in the wild Card era.

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Speaker 1: That is unreal.

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Speaker 2: The Titans have fifty one total points through four games

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Speaker 2: in just three touchdowns. Since twenty twelve, three teams have

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Speaker 2: had this fifty one points are less and three touchdowns

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Speaker 2: through four games in all three head coaches. We're in

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Speaker 2: their first season with the team. Brian Callahan's not long

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Speaker 2: here at all. Kyler Murray is not great against the number, though. Okay,

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Speaker 2: this is why this is a good game to tease,

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Speaker 2: because Kyler Murray, as a seven point favored or higher

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Speaker 2: at home, is just nine and fourteen against the spread. Okay,

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Speaker 2: So I'm not saying that this team is deserving of

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Speaker 2: this number of being seven, and the Titans might very

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Speaker 2: well fight them all the way you tooth and nail.

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Speaker 2: But I just think cam Ward, who's zero to four,

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Speaker 2: not good. Cam Woard's been sacked seventeen times in the

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Speaker 2: first four games. That leads the NFL. He's just the

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Speaker 2: tenth quarterback to be sacked seventeen times or more in

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Speaker 2: the first four games was rookie season since the merger.

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Speaker 2: That's unbelievable. So I think the Titans might keep the

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Speaker 2: game close, or they might get killed. But I think

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Speaker 2: the better play is to tease it down from seven

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Speaker 2: to one. So let's tease it down. Let's go one

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Speaker 2: side to that teaser. Colts minus one against the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: Other side of the teachers here, Cardinals minus one. Home

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Speaker 2: teams in the NFL have absolutely dominated. Let's keep that

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Speaker 2: trend going here with the Colts and the Cardinals here

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Speaker 2: at minus one. Baseball play we were perfect yesterday baseball.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about it. Max Freed gets the start up

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Speaker 2: against a twenty two year old rookie from Pennsylvania for

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Speaker 2: the Blue jays fourth career start. The Blue Jays, well,

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Speaker 2: they're trying to do what the Red Sox just did,

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Speaker 2: and the Red Sox lost Game three by throwing a

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Speaker 2: kid who hadn't had much experience making his I think

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Speaker 2: Early was making his fifth career start. This is the

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Speaker 2: fourth career start. It's not a winner take all game,

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Speaker 2: but it's still a pretty big moment. I think comes

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Speaker 2: down to one. The kid given up home runs and two.

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Speaker 2: Max Freed not pitching well on the road this year

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Speaker 2: three point two to eight ERA, he was eleven and three.

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Speaker 2: That's a good record, but he's given up ten home

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Speaker 2: runs on the road. And we know what happens on

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Speaker 2: the road at Rogers Center, and what the Blue Jays do.

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Speaker 2: They just scored ten runs yesterday against Yankee pitching.

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Speaker 1: But it's not just that.

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Speaker 2: Max Freed has pitched two times on the road at

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Speaker 2: Toronto at Rogers Center and it hasn't gone well. He

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Speaker 2: pitched on the first of July, six innings, four earned runs.

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Speaker 2: He gave up two home runs in that game and

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Speaker 2: a twelve to five loss to the Toronto Blue Jays.

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Speaker 2: The second time he pitched there was on the twenty

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Speaker 2: third of July, an eight four loss.

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Speaker 1: He went five and a third.

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Speaker 2: He gave up six earned runs in that game, sorry,

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Speaker 2: six runs, four of them earned, and gave up three

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Speaker 2: walks and six hits in a game in which his team.

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Speaker 2: He got the loss in that game with really kind

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Speaker 2: of kickstarted the whole collapse for him when it got going.

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Speaker 2: His ERA in July was five point five to four

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Speaker 2: ERA in August was five point one four. It has

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Speaker 2: been much better in September. But I think Max Free

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Speaker 2: gives up some runs and I think the Yankees score.

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Speaker 2: I think the Yankees hit home runs today. I think

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Speaker 2: the Yankees score against the kid, big Moment, big nerves,

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Speaker 2: big Ballpark, over eight, over seven and a half hit easily.

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Speaker 2: The Blue Jays got over that themselves yesterday. I'm not

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Speaker 2: saying we're gonna see the Blue Jays score ten again,

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Speaker 2: but I think the Yankees are good for four five

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Speaker 2: runs pretty easily here with this.

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Speaker 1: So I'll take the.

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Speaker 2: Over for the Red Sox for the Yankees, and the

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Speaker 2: Blue Jays over eight for one point one units.

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Speaker 1: Just one baseball play for us here today.

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Speaker 2: By the way, quick comment, and I torched this guy

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Speaker 2: on our discord channel. I torched you in the comments.

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Speaker 2: Do me a favor if you're going to be in

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Speaker 2: the comments, because this is a huge pet peeve of mine,

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Speaker 2: because people go and read the comment section and they

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Speaker 2: might actually think you know what you're talking about. The

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Speaker 2: dude who said that the Brewers didn't hit lefties and

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Speaker 2: that the Brewers were the second worst team left in

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Speaker 2: the playoffs to hit left handed pitching. Nothing infuriates me

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Speaker 2: wrong than morons who think they know something and act

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Speaker 2: like it and talk about it.

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Speaker 1: Don't do that. Okay. We're talking about real money here.

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Speaker 1: People are gambling.

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Speaker 2: This is money, Okay, So you could be a moron

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Speaker 2: and bet whatever you want. But don't come into the

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Speaker 2: comment section and start writing things like you know what

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Speaker 2: you're talking about, because you don't. Okay. The Brewers this year,

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Speaker 2: they were number one in batting average, number two in hits,

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Speaker 2: and number five tied for RBIs going into the game

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Speaker 2: in which they scored six runs in the first inning

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Speaker 2: off lefty Matthew Boyd and scored nine runs overall and

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Speaker 2: won the game nine to three in another laugher for us,

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Speaker 2: involving the Milwaukee Brewers play of the day too, by

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Speaker 2: the way, for the betting pros folks, another play of

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Speaker 2: the day hit for the Brewers, who have been by

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Speaker 2: far the most profitable team for me, and the play

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Speaker 2: of the day. So do us all a favor. If

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Speaker 2: you don't know what you're talking about, keep your mouth shut.

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Speaker 2: Just don't act like a fool, right, Don't tell us,

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Speaker 2: don't show us, just don't do that.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: I appreciate you guys in the comments, but as I've

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Speaker 2: said a million times. When you tell me the bet sucks,

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Speaker 2: it cashes eighty five percent of the time, so I

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Speaker 2: actually welcome it. Unless you want to talk stats and

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Speaker 2: say like I don't do my research or I don't

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Speaker 2: have the numbers right. Okay, that makes me mad and

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Speaker 2: that's ridiculous, So let's not do that anymore. Tell me

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Speaker 2: the BET's bad, tell me you don't like it, that's fine.

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Speaker 2: Don't tell me I have the stats wrong, in particular

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Speaker 2: with the Milwaukee Brewers, for goodness sake. Finally, guys, have

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Speaker 2: you downloading the Betting Pros app as of yet?

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Speaker 1: If you haven't, you should really go and do so.

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Speaker 2: With sportsbooks, sink automatically track your bets across all major

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Speaker 2: custom betting systems to find winning trends and profitable opportunities.

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Speaker 2: We have a special offer to get Betting Pros Premium

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Speaker 2: head on over to bettingpros dot com slash Premium, make

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Speaker 2: a deposit at a partner sportsbook and place your wager.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 2: You guys can follow me across all my socials at

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Speaker 2: Sports Talk Matt. I'll talk to you at noon Eastern

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Speaker 2: Time for our live stream for Week five of the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts, it is

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Speaker 2: the Daily.

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Speaker 1: Juice Into Number under Punt. The number