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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into the Thursday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Just Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrault. You can follow me on Twitter and Instagram

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Speaker 1: at sports Talk Matt. As we roll into a Thursday

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Speaker 1: here on bettingpros dot Com, always being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by bet MGM. And we are here again after another

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Speaker 1: winning night two and one yesterday. Now here's the thing

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Speaker 1: about yesterday that was pretty interesting. If you bet late,

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Speaker 1: if you got Wisconsin in the total late, it crashed.

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Speaker 1: I got it at one thirty eight overnight. The dangers

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Speaker 1: of betting overnight. I got it way too high. You

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Speaker 1: guys who waited. You got it at one thirty four,

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Speaker 1: one thirty five. Oh sorry, one thirty three, one thirty

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Speaker 1: two and a half. That's the lowest I saw one

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Speaker 1: of you guys getting and you bet the over and

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Speaker 1: you guys hit. If you played Xavier Laugher. How about

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Speaker 1: all that movement on Oklahoma? More on that here in

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Speaker 1: just one second, that game easy, and then in overtime

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Speaker 1: we get a two point victory for Florida State, and

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Speaker 1: we had it at three two and a half was

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Speaker 1: the number I would have played. I bought it to

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Speaker 1: three at minus one twenty five, and we got that

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Speaker 1: correct as well, two and one, another winning night. We

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Speaker 1: got a loss unfortunately for I did for the Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: officially of the Wisconsin over. So it's a two and

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Speaker 1: one night for us. It's a twenty and three run

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Speaker 1: so far. Here what we're on now. If you bet late,

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Speaker 1: and this is some of the dangers of betting overnight,

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Speaker 1: but it's not always this way. When you bet overnight,

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Speaker 1: sometimes the numbers crash against you. However, the Oklahoma game,

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Speaker 1: every one in their mom woke up in bet Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: every one in the public. And this is again when

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Speaker 1: everyone is running one way. I'm perfectly confident, just kind

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Speaker 1: of sitting there and going, okay, go ahead, bet against it.

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Speaker 1: Because one, I'm red hot. So if you're gonna go

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Speaker 1: against me right now, fine take it, you know, at

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Speaker 1: your own risk. But if everyone's going and saying Oklahoma, Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: and the number just completely flipped and kept on flipping,

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Speaker 1: I mean, kept on going. It went it closed at

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Speaker 1: three and a half. It was Xavier minus two when

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Speaker 1: I bet it. It went off at Xavier plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half. That is a significant move, okay, And

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Speaker 1: I thought to myself, Man, that's a lot of money,

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Speaker 1: right hat Nope, what's interesting? So I had Dave Sheerripan

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Speaker 1: on my radio show, who's been on this podcast, and

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Speaker 1: I asked him, I said, look, how much money did

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Speaker 1: it take to flip two minus two to plus two?

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Speaker 1: He said one bet. I was like, what, he's one bet?

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Speaker 1: One Max Bet coming in on Oklahoma flips the line

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Speaker 1: and his rationale was, you get to zero and you're

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Speaker 1: gonna go to one. So if you're at one, you

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Speaker 1: go to zero. Once you're at zero, you go to one.

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Speaker 1: So if you're negative two minus two, you get a

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Speaker 1: bet on the other side at plus two go down

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Speaker 1: to one. But you don't have to stay at one.

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Speaker 1: You just go to zero. But once you're at zero,

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Speaker 1: you go the other side. So once you're at one,

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Speaker 1: it's up to the book maker their description. You know,

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Speaker 1: its one bucket is two points, so really, if you

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Speaker 1: don't feel comfortable at one, you just go to two.

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Speaker 1: So it's not that dramatic of a move. Actually it's

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Speaker 1: not that much money. I didn't know that. Dave taught

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Speaker 1: me a lesnia yesterday, so that was a good you know,

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Speaker 1: you think, oh my gosh, all this money was on Oklahoma.

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Speaker 1: Well maybe, but who went first? What bet came in

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Speaker 1: at what book? What book moved it first? Did everyone follow?

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Speaker 1: This is why line movement. You can't always follow the

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Speaker 1: line movement. You got to handicap a game and you

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Speaker 1: bet it the way you think. I thought Xavier was

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Speaker 1: the better team to Oklahoma. I thought Oklahoma hadn't played

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Speaker 1: enough and Xavier had been battle tested. The same reason

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Speaker 1: why I bet Indiana to keep it close against Florida State.

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Speaker 1: I said, look at Florida State. It's game two for them.

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Speaker 1: One of their freshmen, big men was cramping up. He

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Speaker 1: had to come out overtime. He couldn't play because they

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Speaker 1: hadn't played. They hadn't played in a real game setting.

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Speaker 1: They played North Florida and killed them. So I thought,

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Speaker 1: you know what, this is really FSU first game. Indiana

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Speaker 1: has been battle tested. I think they keep it really close.

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Speaker 1: I thought they'd win the game, but I took the

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Speaker 1: three points, so they cover an overtime. They lose by two.

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Speaker 1: Heck of a shot by that five star freshman at

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Speaker 1: Florida State off the top of the backboard down in

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Speaker 1: game over or not really, but had a hail Mary

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Speaker 1: shot at the end that didn't go anywhere near the basket.

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Speaker 1: But you know what I mean, the win for Florida

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Speaker 1: State by two, we cover. So I handicapped the game

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Speaker 1: right yesterday in both games Xavier and Florida State Indiana.

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Speaker 1: I had those games right. I had Wisconsin right. It's

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Speaker 1: just that if they I mean one through the first

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Speaker 1: ten minutes of that game, Rhode Island scored sixteen points.

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Speaker 1: I believe it was so that kind of screwed us.

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Speaker 1: If they had just scored you know, the typical twenty

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Speaker 1: points or whatever would have been, they would have wound up.

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Speaker 1: I mean, free throws early, couple three pointers. They weren't

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Speaker 1: hitting late game, you know, poor possessions. It just kind

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Speaker 1: of it burned us. Unfortunately burned me at least to

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Speaker 1: get it right. But you guys who bet it late,

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Speaker 1: and this is sometimes the benefit. If you guys wake

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Speaker 1: up or I wake up and I'm betting this here

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Speaker 1: on a Wednesday night into a Thursday morning, sometimes the

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Speaker 1: numbers will move and you'll ge a better number than

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Speaker 1: I got. So you know, sometimes the numbers are in

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Speaker 1: my favor because I'm betting it early, and sometimes they're

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Speaker 1: in your favor, and that's what happened. It was in

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Speaker 1: your favor yesterday, and so two and one officially, but

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Speaker 1: three and oh for you guys who waited and got

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Speaker 1: it late, three and oh on the podcast yesterday. So

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Speaker 1: you know, it's either twenty one, twenty one and two

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Speaker 1: or twenty and three. Either way, it's ridiculous. It's just

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Speaker 1: kind of crazy. So I am calling this podcast the

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Speaker 1: heat check podcast. All right, this is a heat check.

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Speaker 1: This is to say that I don't really like what

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Speaker 1: I'm about to do because I'm gonna get a little

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Speaker 1: bit a little bit more committed to this game on

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Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football that I want to. It's involving the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: so it's a little bit of a crazy spin. I'm

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Speaker 1: doing something that I don't think you should do. But again,

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Speaker 1: I was going back and forth. I talked to Dave

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Speaker 1: Sheripan tonight and I was like, I want to do

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Speaker 1: this and this. You know, this is breaking a pretty

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Speaker 1: big rule that I talk about, and he was like,

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Speaker 1: do you care about breaking rules or do you want

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Speaker 1: to cash? You're literally on fire, do whatever you want

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Speaker 1: right now, like tempt fate, make a dumb bet. Who

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Speaker 1: cares you're just you know, you're shooting free throws blindfolded

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Speaker 1: and you're hitting them all over the place. So just

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Speaker 1: you know, see what if you can do it. So

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Speaker 1: I've got three plays on the game tonight for the

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Speaker 1: Rams and the Patriots, and I've got one play in

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Speaker 1: college basketball that I want to get to here. So

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Speaker 1: the bet MGM offer that you guys know about is

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Speaker 1: one dollar money line Rams Patriots touchdown get scored. You

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Speaker 1: want one hundred dollars in free bets from bet MGM

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Speaker 1: and you got it with Juice one hundred promo code,

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Speaker 1: that's how we get credit for you guys listening to

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Speaker 1: the daily Juice Juice one hundred promo code. When you

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Speaker 1: sign up, one dollar money line bet wins you one

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars in free bets thanks to bet MGM. If

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Speaker 1: a touchdown score tonight between the Rams and the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: go to betemgm dot com for terms and conditions. You

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Speaker 1: must be twenty one years or older and you must

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Speaker 1: be physically in Tennessee, Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, or West Virginia.

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Speaker 1: Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one hundred and five

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Speaker 1: to two to two, forty seven hundred in Colorado and Nevada,

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Speaker 1: one hundred gambler in New Jersey, in West Virginia, or

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Speaker 1: one hundred and nine with it in Indiana. Let's talk Patriots,

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Speaker 1: Let's talk Rams. You guys know how I feel about

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Speaker 1: the Rams. Okay. I believe the Rams are going to

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Speaker 1: win the West. They're eight and four and they're tied

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Speaker 1: at the top of the division. Now they've got a

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Speaker 1: pretty difficult schedule Patriots, no joke here, okay. Patriots coming

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Speaker 1: off of a forty five nothing whipping of the La

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Speaker 1: Chargers in this very Solfi Stadium that they'll be in

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Speaker 1: coming up tonight. Rams are off of a big win

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Speaker 1: on the road at the Cardinals. Now the Rams are

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Speaker 1: seven and five against the number. The Patriots are six

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Speaker 1: and six against the number. The Rams covered that two

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Speaker 1: and a half point line, but they did not cover

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Speaker 1: against San Francisco. They lost the game outright. The last

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Speaker 1: time they were at home Tampa was a game they

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Speaker 1: won by three as four point dogs, and then they

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Speaker 1: beat Seattle by six at home as three point favorites.

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Speaker 1: The Patriots were two point dogs. They won by forty five,

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Speaker 1: Patriots were one point dogs. They won by three against Arizona.

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Speaker 1: They were two and a half point favorites on the road.

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Speaker 1: In the last time they were a road favorite and

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Speaker 1: they lost by seven to the Houston Texans. And the

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Speaker 1: last time out at home after Arizona, rather they beat

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Speaker 1: the Ravens by six after seven points dogs. So the

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Speaker 1: Patriots have won four of their last five. They are rolling,

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Speaker 1: and so the public here is coming in and they're

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Speaker 1: betting on the Patriots. They believe the Patriots are going

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Speaker 1: to be able to keep this game close. Line opened

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Speaker 1: up at six five and a half. At some places

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Speaker 1: it's down to five. I would have rather had it

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Speaker 1: at six and a half because I would rather have

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Speaker 1: teased it down, but I got it at five. I

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Speaker 1: hate this number. It's a dead number, Okay, But I

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Speaker 1: don't think the Patriots are gonna keep this game close tonight.

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Speaker 1: I think this game is gonna look a lot like

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Speaker 1: Tuesday Night with the Ravens and the Cowboys. And I'm

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Speaker 1: a Patriot fan, but there are something really bad matchups

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Speaker 1: for the Patriots when it comes to this defense. The

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Speaker 1: Rams right now are giving up twenty point two points

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Speaker 1: per game. That's fifth in the NFL. The Patriots are

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Speaker 1: scoring twenty two point eight points per game, but they're

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Speaker 1: getting five point four yards per play. That's nineteenth best

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. This is the number one defense yards

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Speaker 1: per play given up in the Rams at four point six.

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Speaker 1: You don't convert third downs on this defense. They give

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Speaker 1: up just thirty five percent, and the Patriots aren't great

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Speaker 1: at converting anyway on third down at forty three percent,

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Speaker 1: that's only tenth best in the league. The Patriots are

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Speaker 1: gaining three hundred and forty two yards per game, that's

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Speaker 1: twenty seconds. The Rams are giving up two hundred and

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Speaker 1: ninety one point three yards per game. That's second best.

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Speaker 1: On the other side, the Patriots defense is okay, but

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Speaker 1: you can throw on this defense. We saw it earlier

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Speaker 1: in the year where they were giving up big play

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Speaker 1: after big play to quarterbacks who shouldn't be giving up

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Speaker 1: big plays. They're decent against the run, okay, four point

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Speaker 1: three yards per rush, that's sixteenth best in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: In don't run the ball all that well. Four point

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Speaker 1: two yards per rush for the Rams. They really it's

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Speaker 1: a running back by committee. But this is really about

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff and his ability to throw to Cooper Cup

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Speaker 1: and Robert Woods. And they have a good pass offense,

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Speaker 1: not great, but good seven point two yards per pass play.

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Speaker 1: They throw for about two hundred and seventy one yards

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Speaker 1: per game. That's six best in the NFL. Patriots are

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Speaker 1: giving up two hundred and twenty five yards per game

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Speaker 1: through the air, that's twelfth best. It's not so much

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Speaker 1: about Jared Goff against the Patriots defense as it is

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Speaker 1: Cam Newton against this defense for the Rams. This is

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Speaker 1: all on Cam. He has to throw against Jalen Ramsey

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Speaker 1: in company to do anything on this game. The Patriots

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Speaker 1: are not going to be able to run the football.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to run. And I don't know how

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Speaker 1: they score. I just don't know how they score. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they've got an offense it's built for this

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Speaker 1: type of game here. This is a super Bowl for

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Speaker 1: Jared Goff. He got embarrassed the last time he went

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Speaker 1: up against Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl. He was

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Speaker 1: idolizing him. He was Gaga Google ates, you know, before

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Speaker 1: the game, Oh hi Bill, how are you? Mister Belichick?

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Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, I can't believe him in the Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl against you, and he got his doors kicked in

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Speaker 1: by Belichick. Okay, that was Tom Brady. This is Cam Newton.

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Speaker 1: While I will be one hundred percent okay with being wrong,

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Speaker 1: and I hope I am wrong. The Patriots got a

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Speaker 1: block field goal touchdown against the Chargers, and the Patriots

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Speaker 1: got a kick return for a touchdown against the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: Patriots offense, Cam Newton threw for less than seventy yards

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Speaker 1: in that game. They ran all over the place. They

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Speaker 1: ran wildcat on that defense for the Chargers. For goodness sakes,

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Speaker 1: Damien Harris ran wildcat. That was new right. No one

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Speaker 1: had seen that yet so far for the Patriots. Guess

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Speaker 1: what the Rams now saw it? They can prep for it.

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Speaker 1: Aaron Donald against a patchwork offensive line for the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: which has not done a great job of keeping Cam

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Speaker 1: Newton upright. Okay, Patriots are giving up a sack on

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Speaker 1: six point one percent of their plays, that's twentieth in

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Speaker 1: the NFL, while the Rams are getting sacks on seven

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Speaker 1: point six percent of their plays, that's fifth best in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. You've got a pass rush is gonna get

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Speaker 1: to Cam Newton. You've got a pass offense that only

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Speaker 1: goes for one hundred and ninety one yards per game.

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Speaker 1: That's thirtieth in the NFL. This is a bad matchup. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the Patriots got good breaks because Anthony Lyn's a garbage

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Speaker 1: coach and Justin Herbert is a second as a rookie

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Speaker 1: quarterback rather and Kyler Murray second year quarterback. Belichick eats

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Speaker 1: those guys for lunch. This is Jared Goff. He's been around,

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Speaker 1: he's seen a Belichick defense. Not to say he is light,

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Speaker 1: you know, light years ahead of those two guys, but

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Speaker 1: from an experienced standpoint, played a lot more games. All right.

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Speaker 1: They've got tight ends to throw to. They got running

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Speaker 1: backs who can catch the football. Patriots are in trouble here.

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Speaker 1: I predicted it what last week? I said, the Patriots

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Speaker 1: beat the Chargers and then they lose to the Rams.

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Speaker 1: I'm laying the five here, Patriots Rams minus five at

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Speaker 1: home to beat the Patriots. I don't like the number again,

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Speaker 1: I hate the number one unit. We're laying it Rams

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Speaker 1: minus five. Okay, that's a normal play. This is when

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Speaker 1: it gets to be the heat check. All right, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna try to middle this like we did. If you're

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Speaker 1: with us in the discord chat, I tried to do

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Speaker 1: this on Tuesday night and I nearly hit it. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna try it again, but I'm not gonna do it

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Speaker 1: for as much as I get it on Tuesday. I

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Speaker 1: am gonna go with a full one unit rams teased

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Speaker 1: from five to plus one. Yes, I'm going through zero.

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Speaker 1: Don't do this, Okay, this is stupid. I'm doing it

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Speaker 1: anyway because it's a heat check podcast. Okay, I'm just

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Speaker 1: doing it because it's a heat check. Okay, let's just

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Speaker 1: see how stupid I can violate the rules of nature

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Speaker 1: and still hit these wagers minus one twenty five same

279
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Speaker 1: game teaser rams plus one, taking the total from forty

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Speaker 1: four and a half and teasing it up to fifty

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Speaker 1: and a half. And I'm taking the under for one

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Speaker 1: unit at minus one twenty five so rams minus five

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Speaker 1: one unit rams plus one. I know, don't yell at me.

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Speaker 1: It's a one time thing. Under fifty and a half

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Speaker 1: for the two game, same game p harl, same game teaser,

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Speaker 1: whatever your book calls it. Okay, that's what I'm doing

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Speaker 1: here for one unit. Now I've got one more unit

288
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Speaker 1: in play, okay, half a unit on these two bets.

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Speaker 1: This is where the real heat check comes in. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna try to middle this and this is hard. That's

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00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,640
Speaker 1: why I'm not doing the full unit on it. But

292
00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:23,800
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Patriots up to eleven and I'm teasing

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Speaker 1: the total down to thirty eight and a half and

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Speaker 1: we're going over. So Pats plus eleven over thirty eight

295
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Speaker 1: and a half. Here's my fear. I think the game's

296
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Speaker 1: twenty four to ten LA. That's my prediction. Okay, so

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00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,480
Speaker 1: I think thirty four. I'm a little concerned about getting

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Speaker 1: to the over. I don't know, even thirty eight and

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Speaker 1: a half. I'm not so sure we get to that.

300
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Speaker 1: I don't think the Patriots score without turnovers goal lore

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Speaker 1: and maybe Jered Goff throws a bunch turnovers, Okay, he's

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Speaker 1: turnover prone. Maybe they fumble a bunch. Maybe that Patriots

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Speaker 1: defense just rises up and does some things are just

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Speaker 1: like o oh my gosh. Okay, So maybe I'm wrong

305
00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:03,760
Speaker 1: about this, and it's a little bit of a hedge

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00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:06,200
Speaker 1: on the under fifty and a half. The Cowboys scored

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Speaker 1: a lot more than I thought they were going to

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Speaker 1: against the Baltimore Ravens on Tuesday Night, But I mean

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Speaker 1: the receiving corps for the Dallas Cowboys is so much

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Speaker 1: better than the Patriots receiving corps. I mean, my gosh,

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Speaker 1: the Patriots still don't have anybody to throw to. It's

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Speaker 1: still an embarrassment to look at that offensive you know, firepower.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna call it that. The receivers aren't that great now.

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Speaker 1: The running backs are great. James White is great, Sony

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Speaker 1: Michelle is very good. I love I mean, Damien Harris,

316
00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:31,040
Speaker 1: I love. So they got this stable of running backs.

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Speaker 1: But again, you've got to throw to those guys. There's

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Speaker 1: no slot receiver. Julian Edelman in this game would be

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Speaker 1: so beautiful for the Patriots. So they might win this

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Speaker 1: game if they have Julian Edelman. I'm serious, like he

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Speaker 1: is that big of a game changer for me if

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Speaker 1: he was out there. But he's not going to be

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Speaker 1: so for a half a unit. Okay, we're gonna try

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Speaker 1: to middle it. We're gonna try to get right smack

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Speaker 1: in the middle. The game has to land in the forties, okay,

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Speaker 1: so you know it has to be with eleven points. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so we're talking like twenty eight to twenty. Okay, if

328
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Speaker 1: we can get a twenty eight twenty final, we cash

329
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:06,160
Speaker 1: both teasers, okay, both sides of the teears. So again

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Speaker 1: this is called a heat check. Okay, welcome to the

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Speaker 1: Heat Check po podcast. I'm twenty and three over the

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Speaker 1: last three days. Why not get a little crazy. I

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00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 1: will have pod I will have prop bets rather that

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Speaker 1: I'll put up in the discord chat. I will throw

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Speaker 1: some props out there. But again, I can't bet props

336
00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:22,760
Speaker 1: here in Vegas overnight because they aren't up. So I'll

337
00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:24,560
Speaker 1: wait till we get to the game, and I'll probably

338
00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,280
Speaker 1: look to bet you know, Cam Newton probably underpassing Damien Harris,

339
00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,960
Speaker 1: over rushing Cooper Cup. I think we'll have a monster

340
00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 1: game for the Patriots. I'll be curious who the Patriots

341
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,040
Speaker 1: puts Steph on Gilmour on, because if they put them

342
00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,280
Speaker 1: on Cooper Cup, then it's Robert Woods is gonna eat

343
00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:41,080
Speaker 1: so and then you got the tight end Higbee and whatnot.

344
00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:44,040
Speaker 1: So like, there's there's some issues here I think for

345
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 1: the Patriots in terms of how they're going to defend

346
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Speaker 1: this team for the for the Rams, and I just

347
00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,080
Speaker 1: don't like it at all. I think there's some just

348
00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 1: bad matchups in bad problems for this I think Tyler

349
00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:58,680
Speaker 1: Higby could have a big game. I think Higby scoring

350
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Speaker 1: a touchdown. By the way, Higbee anytime touchdown, look for

351
00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:03,680
Speaker 1: that as a real big potential. They love him in

352
00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:05,800
Speaker 1: the red zone at six foot six, So just different

353
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Speaker 1: prop bets to kind of look at. But we're gonna

354
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Speaker 1: go three plays on the game here. We're going Rams

355
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Speaker 1: mass five Rams plus one, yes I know under fifty

356
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:17,199
Speaker 1: and a half. Those are both one unit, and then

357
00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 1: Patriots plus eleven over thirty eight and a half for

358
00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:23,159
Speaker 1: a half a unit on a teaser. Both those teasers

359
00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:26,080
Speaker 1: are minus one twenty five juice minus one ten on

360
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:28,520
Speaker 1: the rams minus five. That leaves us with a half

361
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:30,480
Speaker 1: a unit flying around you. Like you, guys know, I

362
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:32,080
Speaker 1: don't like to leave that half a unit out there.

363
00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 1: So I'm taking the half a unit and I'm going

364
00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:39,080
Speaker 1: to college basketball. Arizona State is a team I've watched

365
00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:41,200
Speaker 1: quite a bit. They're three to ozho straight up, but

366
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,719
Speaker 1: they're one and three against the spread so far this season.

367
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,840
Speaker 1: They're taking on San Diego State out of the Mountain West.

368
00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:52,159
Speaker 1: These PAC twelve Mountain West games are huge. San Diego

369
00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:54,119
Speaker 1: State opened up at five and a half. It's now

370
00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:55,679
Speaker 1: four and a half of the time of taping, I

371
00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,399
Speaker 1: really thought about betting and taking the plus four and

372
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:02,080
Speaker 1: a half here for San Diego State. However, I like

373
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:05,120
Speaker 1: the under in this game more. And here is why

374
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,280
Speaker 1: I think the Aztecs can really impose their will here

375
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,000
Speaker 1: on Arizona State. And I didn't like what I've seen

376
00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 1: what I've I've watched two games so far of the

377
00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 1: Sun Devils. You can dictate temple on them, and you

378
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,520
Speaker 1: can force them into bad shots, you can force them

379
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:22,240
Speaker 1: into quick shots. I just don't love this team. But

380
00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:25,359
Speaker 1: they've got firepower. They can score in bunches, and they

381
00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:27,440
Speaker 1: can hit a bunch of threes. And you've got to

382
00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,080
Speaker 1: be careful of Remy Martin obviously, right, I mean he's

383
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 1: really good. Josh Christopher is guy averaging over seventeen points

384
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 1: per game. I mean, they can fill it up if

385
00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 1: you give them the chance to do so. They're averaging

386
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 1: over eighty four points per game, so they can score. However,

387
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,640
Speaker 1: against a team like San Diego State, which is gonna

388
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 1: take the air out of the ball. That's the thing

389
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,800
Speaker 1: with San Diego State. They just are efficient. They don't

390
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,199
Speaker 1: take bad shots. They work the clock, they work the

391
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 1: shot clock and they take good shots. That's just what

392
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 1: the Azteks do. They frustrate you a ton Matt Mitchell

393
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 1: and company. I'm gonna say the under here. I got

394
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,199
Speaker 1: one for seven and a half. I'm taking the under

395
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 1: for San Diego State. I don't think they want to

396
00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:06,320
Speaker 1: get into a shootout. I think they want to take

397
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,199
Speaker 1: the air out of the basketball, and I think they

398
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 1: want to play slow, and I think they want to

399
00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,280
Speaker 1: try to frustrate the Aztecs. I mean, I could see

400
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,560
Speaker 1: something in the neighborhood of like a seventy to sixty

401
00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 1: five type of final here, and sure, maybe it's a

402
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:20,320
Speaker 1: five point win and a cover for Arizona State, But

403
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,040
Speaker 1: I feel more comfortable laying the under here. And you

404
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,959
Speaker 1: want to look at trends for both these teams, you know,

405
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 1: the under is two and one in the two games

406
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:30,640
Speaker 1: for San Diego State, the only game that went over

407
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 1: was against UC Irvine and that was a one thirty

408
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:36,440
Speaker 1: one total. Against Pepperdine, it was one forty three and

409
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 1: a half and it went under in that game. Two

410
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 1: of the games so far for Arizona, including their last

411
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 1: one against Cal, have gone under. One forty seven was

412
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,159
Speaker 1: the total there same here as one forty seven and

413
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,080
Speaker 1: a half. It was a seventy sixty two final for

414
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,360
Speaker 1: Arizona State and they beat Cal. But the under came

415
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,240
Speaker 1: in against Villanova, same thing everyone thought over for sure, Well,

416
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 1: the under came in at one fifty eight and a half.

417
00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 1: The under came in at seventy four eighty three, seventy four.

418
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 1: The win for Villanova and Arizona State did not cover,

419
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,359
Speaker 1: so the under only came in by one and a

420
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 1: half points, but against Cal it came in by fifteen points.

421
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 1: So I think the under is a better play here

422
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,639
Speaker 1: San Diego State under one forty seven and a half

423
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 1: for a half a unit is the only play on

424
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 1: college basketball here on a Thursday night. It's a night

425
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,960
Speaker 1: game ten o'clock Eastern time. So after the football game's over,

426
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 1: flip on over and watch them college basketball and sweat

427
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 1: it out here on the West Coast with us. So

428
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 1: those are the four plays for the heat Check Podcast

429
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 1: twenty and three are run right now, do we keep

430
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 1: it going? I don't know. I hope so, because this

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00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:40,640
Speaker 1: is damn fun. I'm enjoying myself once again. The plays

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00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 1: here for a Thursday night rams minus five rams plus

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00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 1: one under fifty and a half same game teaser one

434
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 1: unit Patriots plus eleven over thirty eight and a half

435
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 1: point five units same game teaser and under for San

436
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,639
Speaker 1: Diego State in Arizona State at one forty seven and

437
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: a half here tonight. Best of luck to you, best

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00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,719
Speaker 1: of luck to me. Let's keep it rolling. This has

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00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 1: been a ton of fun. It's going to end at

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00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 1: some point, but let's hope to get a sixth straight

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00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 1: winning night for us. Here on the Daily Juice Podcast.

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00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 1: My name is Matt Paroltz to following me on Twitter

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00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,879
Speaker 1: at sports Talk Matt. Every morning, including tomorrow morning, is

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00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 1: the Daily Juice Podcast right here on Bettingpros dot com,

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00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 1: brought to you by BEDAMGM