1 00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:04,280 Speaker 1: Welcome to Stuff You Missed in History Class, a production 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: of iHeartRadio. Hello and welcome to the podcast. I'm Holly 3 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: Frye and I'm Tracy V. Wilson. So insurance is part 4 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: of daily life for most people. You use it to 5 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: help you manage financial laws, at least theoretically. You pay 6 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: an insurance company for a policy. If something bad happens, 7 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: that policy pays you out again. All of this theoretically 8 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 1: and ideally one can hope that right policy will pay 9 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: out right. The insurance company, in broad terms, makes money 10 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: by pooling that money of its policyholders that it collects. 11 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 1: It creates an investment portfolio, and then they use that 12 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 1: to make money. Both sides of this arrangement are trying 13 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: to manage their risk throughout, which brings us to actuarial science, 14 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: which is of course all about calculating risk, risk of injury, illness, death, 15 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 1: risk of life, market shifts, and financial outcomes. And I 16 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: find actuary science fascinating, although sometimes slightly depressing, because it 17 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: kind of takes all of the rich tapestry of life 18 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: and boils it down to numbers and tables and formulas. 19 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 1: But our reality is so deeply shaped by these things. 20 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: So it got me thinking recently, where did these practices start? 21 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 1: Because it's the beginning of the year. A lot of 22 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 1: people's insurance. If you're like covered by group insurance with 23 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 1: your work, sometimes those change at the beginning of the year, 24 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 1: or your policy just changes, even if it's like with 25 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 1: the same company. And I just have been thinking lately 26 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 1: about it sounds so simple, like, wow, who does all 27 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 1: the math on this? Yeah? Right, But somebody has to 28 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: do all the math on that. So we're talking about 29 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 1: actuary science and insurance and where these things kind of 30 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: got their start in the sense that we know them today, 31 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 1: and just as a level set, we're doing a two parter, 32 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: but it's still just raising the surface of all of this. 33 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,600 Speaker 1: If you start looking for information on actuarial science history 34 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:11,359 Speaker 1: or insurance history, you will realize they are about two 35 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 1: kajillion papers written every year about it's that's the real number. 36 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: I just made up, two kajillion. So we're trying to 37 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 1: like just kind of touch on an idea of how 38 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: we got to the point that we're at today, and 39 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: we'll talk about some of the more interesting jumps forward 40 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 1: as well as some stumbling blocks to this whole thing. 41 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 1: That is so much of a part of our lives. 42 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:38,920 Speaker 1: And before we even get started, we have a brief 43 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 1: note about vocabulary because the words assurance ass you are 44 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 1: a NCEE and insurance I N s U are a 45 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,920 Speaker 1: ncee both come up in this episode. A lot of 46 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:56,679 Speaker 1: times these are used interchangeably. I like people use the 47 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: word insurance for both of these a lot of the time. 48 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 1: But there are differences, Yeah, there are differences between these two. Primarily, 49 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 1: assurance deals with something that is definitely going to happen, 50 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: like death. We're all eventually going to face that moment, 51 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 1: except nandor. Insurance, on the other hand, deals with things 52 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: that might happen, like a car crash or flood damage. 53 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 1: So insurance also covers a term, and that's why you 54 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 1: have to renew your policy, say once a year or 55 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 1: every six months or at some other interval. The generalized 56 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 1: usage of these words has made this distinction really fuzzy, 57 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: like in the case of whole life insurance. Because whole 58 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: life insurance includes a cash savings element that the policyholder 59 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 1: can use before their death, it is called insurance even 60 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: though there is also a payout portion of the policy 61 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: that happens when the inevitable end of the policyholder's life arrives, 62 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: so that might be considered assurance with an A if 63 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: the policy weren't set at a specific term, And in 64 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 1: casual conversation today, most people would probably use the word insurance, 65 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: as I said, even when talking about things that are 66 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 1: technically assurance. So we wanted to just level set a 67 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: little bit because most of the policies and organizations that 68 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 1: we're talking about today are really focused on what we 69 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: would probably called life insurance, but in the historical record 70 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 1: they are called assurance with an A. Yes, and some 71 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: of that is we'll talk about assurance societies and how 72 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: those are a little bit different. But London is generally 73 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 1: recognized as the place where life insurance was born, and 74 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: from there it spread throughout the globe via trade. But 75 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 1: even before there was insurance or actuary tables, there were 76 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: bills of mortality and these were weekly reports issued by 77 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 1: parish clerks in London that list, most did the numbers 78 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: of deaths in a given perish and their causes, and 79 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: this practice began in the sixteenth century as a way 80 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: to track disease. In sixteen sixty five, John Bell Clerk 81 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 1: to the company of parish clerks compiled a book titled 82 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: London's Remembrancer, or a True accompt of every particular week's 83 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 1: Christenings and mortality in all the years of pestilence, within 84 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 1: the cognizance of the Bills of Mortality, being eighteen years 85 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 1: taken out of the Register of the Company of Parish 86 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 1: Clerks of London, and together with several observations on the 87 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: said years and some of their precedent and subsequent years, 88 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 1: published for general satisfaction and for prevention of false papers. 89 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 1: And in this he wrote about the Bills of Mortality quote, 90 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: the Bill of Mortality is a very great use and necessity, 91 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 1: and therefore not to be slighted, since it so much 92 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,919 Speaker 1: conduceth to the health of the city and preservation of 93 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: the members thereof, in that it giveth the general notice 94 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: of the plague and a particular act of the places 95 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 1: which are therewith infected, to the end such places may 96 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 1: be shunned and avoided. So the years of the publications 97 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: of these they were not unbroken, but they were issued 98 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,719 Speaker 1: into the mid nineteenth century by some of the parishes. 99 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: But though these were counts, they didn't really analyze the 100 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: information in any kind of way, and things like ages 101 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: and sex weren't usually included. Additionally, they came under a 102 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 1: lot of criticism due to how they were collected and 103 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:34,359 Speaker 1: how the data was collected. This job normally fell to 104 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: elderly ladies who were willing to help out the parish clerks, 105 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 1: and while Bell defended this practice due to the fact 106 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: that the women were selected by men of good judgment, 107 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: there's some layers of bias here, but this does mean 108 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: that they're just There wasn't really a strict methodology in 109 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,359 Speaker 1: place for how this data was gathered, so the numbers 110 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 1: cannot be counted on to be accurate. Yeah, it's kind 111 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:04,239 Speaker 1: of like if someone told Tracy and I both like, hey, 112 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: go through your neighborhood and get account of how many 113 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 1: people died this year. The odds are really good. We 114 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 1: would approach that a little bit differently. And so even 115 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: though you may have these like two numbers or even 116 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:23,559 Speaker 1: numbers with notations that you combine, they don't necessarily refer 117 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: to the same things. So it's a little bit tricky. 118 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 1: You could have a whole group of competent, detail oriented 119 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 1: people not doing the thing the same way, right, and 120 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: one of the earliest steps in the development of actuarial 121 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:41,239 Speaker 1: science is from what to me was a somewhat surprising source. 122 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: That's a man more associated with astronomy, and that is 123 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: Sir Edmund Halle. Halle has come up on the show before, 124 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: so we're not going to rehash all of his details, 125 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: but in brief, he was born on November eighth, sixteen 126 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: fifty six, and he was still a child when Charles 127 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 1: the Second granted the charter that established the Royal Society, 128 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: So he grew up in kind of an interesting time Scientifically, 129 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: he attended Queen's College and he was encouraged into astronomy 130 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: through astronomer Royal John Flamsteed. Hallie published his Star Catalog 131 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: in sixteen seventy eight and was elected into the Royal 132 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: Society that same year. He famously identified the cycle of 133 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 1: a comet that would eventually bear his name. Within the Society, 134 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 1: he became close friends with Robert Hook and Christopher Wren, 135 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 1: and he also began his association with Isaac Newton. He 136 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: later edited Principia for Newton. The work, though, that makes 137 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: him Germaine to today's topic is his Population Table, which 138 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: was published in sixteen ninety three. This table was made 139 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: using data from the city of Breslau, Germany. Today that's 140 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,960 Speaker 1: in Poland, in the city now known as Vortslav, And 141 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: it's a little more than three hundred and fifty kilometers 142 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: or two hundred and twenty miles west of Warsaw. This 143 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: table is sometimes called a life table. It's sometimes called 144 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 1: a death table. I feel like modern scientists and researchers 145 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 1: have all agreed that it really should just be called 146 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:10,440 Speaker 1: a population table. It gathered together the simple information based 147 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,319 Speaker 1: on parish records of how many people were alive at 148 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: each age. Hallie gives specific numbers of people for ages 149 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: one to eighty four, and then for people eighty five 150 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: to one hundred years old. He kind of lumps them 151 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 1: in as one group in a summary column, and that 152 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: groups all of the population of the city by seven, 153 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: So you'll have the group that is ages one to seven, 154 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 1: eight to fourteen, fifteen to twenty one, et cetera. And 155 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 1: this basic table shows exactly what you would think. As 156 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 1: the number related to age advances, the number of people 157 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 1: surviving at that age goes down. So while the Breslau 158 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 1: record shows one thousand infants under the age of one. 159 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 1: It shows a total of one hundred seven people living 160 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: that year between the ages of eighty five and one 161 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 1: hundred altogether, and the total samples the population was thirty 162 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 1: four thousand. So if you're wondering why a London based 163 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 1: mathematician and astronomer was using data from a German city, uh, 164 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 1: it's because they were a lot more mediculous with the 165 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: record keeping than most other European cities were. Additionally, this 166 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 1: is a place with low rates of immigration and immigration, 167 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: so it was a good model of population over time 168 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 1: for this one particular group. Part of that degree of 169 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: isolation came from the fact that Breslau had a primarily 170 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 1: Lutheran population at a time when it was under the 171 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 1: rule of the Habsburg monarchy, which was Catholic, So it 172 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,959 Speaker 1: makes sense that the community there just it kept mostly 173 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,000 Speaker 1: to itself. We're going to pause here for a quick 174 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: sponsor break, and when we're back we'll talk about the 175 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: ways that Hallie thought that his table could be used. 176 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 1: So Hallie's table, as we described it may sound pretty basic, 177 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 1: but Hallie used this data to make some important determinations. 178 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: For one, he noticed that the numbers of births and 179 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 1: deaths were pretty comparable in each year that he looked at, 180 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: which ranged from sixteen eighty seven to sixteen ninety one. 181 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: He also showed various ways that such a table could 182 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: be useful in the paper that he wrote to accompany it, 183 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 1: in the Royal Society's publication Philosophical Transactions. He noted that 184 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 1: if you subdivide the population information by gender, you can 185 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: assess how many men might be available to fight in 186 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 1: military conflicts, taking into account their age, although he just 187 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: divided by two to estimate the number of men versus women. Again, 188 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 1: this sounds pretty simplistic and it is. But a paper 189 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 1: on Halle's tables by James E. Sieka, which I hope 190 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:54,959 Speaker 1: I'm pronouncing correctly, published in the Journal of Legal Economics 191 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight, noted that Halle came up 192 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,040 Speaker 1: with the number of zero point two six as the 193 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,599 Speaker 1: proportion of the Breslau population that could potentially serve in 194 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: the military, and that if you use that same calculation 195 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,559 Speaker 1: with the population of the US when that two thousand 196 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: and eight paper was written, the number doesn't come out 197 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 1: all that different. It's zero point two four. Because Halle 198 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:19,560 Speaker 1: was mathematically establishing some pretty basic truths about the makeup 199 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 1: of human population groups. His table has remained relevant in 200 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: some uses into the twenty first century. Halle also calculated 201 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 1: survival odds at various ages of life, as well as 202 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 1: chances of survival past certain ages, and then he makes 203 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: the important note that he suggests that life insurance could 204 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: be regulated based on these statistics. In nineteen forty four, 205 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 1: statistician Irwin Ferrin called Halle's table quote the first real 206 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 1: step in the art of life measurement. There had been 207 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 1: another simpler table recorded before Halle's. This was compiled by 208 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: statistician John Grant in sixteen oh six. Writing about Grant's 209 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 1: table in nineteen thirty eight, statistician and epidemiologist Major Greenwood 210 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: summarized its existence and lack of detail in the Royal 211 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:13,080 Speaker 1: Society Journal of the History of Science, as follows quote 212 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: in the first edition of Grant's famous Natural and Political Observations, 213 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: mentioned in a following index, and made upon the Bills 214 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 1: of Mortality, Grant included a short table reporting to give 215 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 1: the survivors of one hundred quick conceptions at the end 216 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:32,319 Speaker 1: of six sixteen, twenty six, thirty six, forty six, fifty six, 217 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: sixty six seventy six and eighty six years. The bills 218 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 1: of mortality in Grant's time did not record the ages 219 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 1: at death, and he reached the second industry at in 220 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 1: his table, that is sixty four survivors at the age 221 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: of six, by a rough classification of the named causes 222 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 1: of death into those which wholly affected children thrush, convulsion, rickets, 223 00:13:56,480 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 1: et cetera, and those which he thought about half small 224 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: swinepos et cetera. Affected children below the age of six. 225 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:09,319 Speaker 1: The remaining figures are conjectural. Some statisticians hold that Grant 226 00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 1: had discovered the principle that, under certain conditions, a survivorship 227 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,439 Speaker 1: table could be computed from a summation of deaths and 228 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: age groups. Others believe that the table is a mere guess, 229 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: and not even Grant's, but a contribution to his book 230 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 1: from his friend William Petty. There is no doubt that 231 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: as an instrument of computation, the table is of little value. 232 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: So while Grant was onto the idea of measuring mortality, 233 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: he wasn't really rigorous enough about the data to create 234 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: something that had the kind of longevity that Hallie's table did. 235 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 1: Hallie's table has been studied and analyzed and written about 236 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: for centuries, including reconstruction of the methods that researchers believe 237 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 1: he used to compile it. It never seems to stop 238 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: fascinating statisticians, in part because Halle manipulated some of the 239 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,520 Speaker 1: numbers in ways that were intended to smooth out the 240 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 1: data for easier consumption by non mathematicians and also just 241 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: make it all work a little better. So this included 242 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 1: things like rounding numbers. Since he was using an average 243 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: of data collected from a five year period, there would 244 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: be times where the average would come out to include decimals, 245 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: and you can't have zero point five of a person, 246 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 1: so Halle rounded out. In twenty ten, David R. Bellhouse 247 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 1: noted in his paper A New Look at Halle's Lifetable 248 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 1: that this need to round may explain why Halle grouped 249 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: people in seven year increments, because the numbers just worked 250 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 1: out best that way. But those roundings and the logic 251 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: of the groupings isn't included in Halle's writings. He hasn't 252 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: really notated why he did things or when he did them, 253 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: so the granularity of the data is lost unless someone 254 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: goes back to the letters from Breslau, which included the 255 00:15:55,280 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 1: population data which some people have done. Life insurance was 256 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 1: already in play well before Hallie made this table. In 257 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 1: eighteen eighty four, Carnelius Walford, who was an actuary and 258 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: historian of the field, wrote a paper on the history 259 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 1: of life assurance in the UK, and that paper's opening 260 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 1: summarizes the evolution of the field to the time of 261 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 1: his writing, and it lays out the phases that assurance 262 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: had been through in its development. Quote. Life assurance is 263 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 1: the compound growth, first of our commercial necessities, aided largely 264 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:36,239 Speaker 1: by a love of speculation, and later of our progressive civilization. 265 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 1: For the former, rough and ready means of estimation were 266 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 1: resorted to. For the latter, a long and elaborate course 267 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: of progressive investigation was needed. The development of the business 268 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: has extended over some three or four centuries, perhaps more. 269 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: It has passed through three distinct phases. One the experimental period, 270 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:59,840 Speaker 1: two the speculative or transitional period, three the period of 271 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 1: scientific exactitude. These periods, of course more or less overlap 272 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:08,679 Speaker 1: each other, but they each possess very marked distinctions. So 273 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 1: there is a little bit of speculation about types of 274 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: insurance or assurance that could or could not be considered 275 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 1: life insurance, going all the way back to ancient Greece 276 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 1: and Babylon, although such things are mentioned in writing. Ever 277 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 1: since money entered into the human timeline, people have sought 278 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 1: ways to deal with the problem of that money running out, 279 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:33,360 Speaker 1: specifically when a family breadwinner passed. This issue was sometimes 280 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: addressed as a public responsibility through things like charitable funds 281 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: that were intended to be dispersed to the bereft right, 282 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:43,120 Speaker 1: so think things like widow's funds or even poorhouses or 283 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 1: orphans funds, But those were obviously less than ideal and 284 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 1: often stigmatized. But people who provided for their families eventually 285 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: started to want to take a more proactive approach to 286 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 1: ensuring that their responsibilities were taken care of, even after 287 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 1: they had gone those with the means to accrue savings, 288 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 1: they could easily just leave that to their loved ones. 289 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: But for people who didn't have a lot of extra money, 290 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 1: or had some but not what they felt like was enough, 291 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 1: that wasn't really feasible. So various deals have been made 292 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 1: throughout history to try to set up some sort of 293 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 1: safety net. So we're talking primarily about life insurance today, 294 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:24,439 Speaker 1: but of course, in a lot of cases insurance was 295 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,880 Speaker 1: not about people's lives but the loss of goods. These 296 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:33,199 Speaker 1: arrangements originated primarily in maritime scenarios where the risk of 297 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: losing cargo was high. There are references to arrangements that 298 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: might be considered maritime insurance, going all the way back 299 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:45,360 Speaker 1: to Babylon's Code Haimarabi. The oldest insurance policy on goods 300 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 1: that we know of was made in thirteen fifty and 301 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:51,359 Speaker 1: was financed by a man named Leonardo Cataneo to cover 302 00:18:51,400 --> 00:18:55,160 Speaker 1: a shipment of wheat that was traveling from Tunis to Sicily. 303 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 1: Cadineo would pay out if the goods were lost at sea, 304 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,919 Speaker 1: but that if they made to port as planned, he 305 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: would be repaid the value with interest. So he was 306 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,399 Speaker 1: basically getting paid to assume the risk of losing money, 307 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,160 Speaker 1: and that arrangement was like a lot at the time, 308 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 1: made between individuals. There weren't any assurance societies or insurance companies. 309 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 1: Yet there've also been insurance arrangements that were made to 310 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: cover the loss of enslaved people by their enslavers, although 311 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 1: those arrangements were more about recovering the value of humans 312 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:32,119 Speaker 1: who were perceived as property rather than lives, so they 313 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:37,199 Speaker 1: aren't generally classified as life insurance. Marine insurance on cargo 314 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 1: was pretty common by the fifteen hundreds, but life insurance 315 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: is a little harder to establish because there are just 316 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,439 Speaker 1: a lot more variables. So the Walford paper that we 317 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 1: mentioned a moment ago makes the case that the experimental 318 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 1: phase of life assurance, which we don't really have a 319 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 1: lot of primary sources for, would have tied into the 320 00:19:55,880 --> 00:20:01,399 Speaker 1: marine industries, just as insurance on cargo had. Walford explains, 321 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: would make assurance deals quote against death or captivity during 322 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: the prosecution of their voyage, in ensuring merchants against captivity 323 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 1: by pirates, for in early times merchants accompanied their maritime ventures. 324 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 1: The mode of undertaking these risks was by individual underwriters 325 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: taking certain defined portions thereof at so much percent premium. 326 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: There were also types of insurance that benefited not a 327 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: person's next of kin should they die at sea, but 328 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 1: their creditors. Sometimes those were taken out by the creditor. 329 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: On the flip side of that, sometimes travelers lent money 330 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 1: that they would not need on their travels to people 331 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,639 Speaker 1: at their point of origin. And that money would be 332 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 1: collected with interest when they returned, but then if they 333 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:50,400 Speaker 1: didn't return, those loans became sort of a payout. The 334 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 1: first life insurance policy that's normally cited as such was 335 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: a term life insurance policy taken out to cover the 336 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: life of Willie Gibbons on June eighteenth, fifteen eighty three. 337 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,679 Speaker 1: So he paid a small sum, reportedly thirty pounds on 338 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,679 Speaker 1: a policy that would pay four hundred pounds if he 339 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:14,879 Speaker 1: died within twelve months of issue. Gibbons's age at the 340 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 1: time the policy was issued is not known, but he 341 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 1: died on May twenty ninth, fifteen eighty four. The underwriters, 342 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 1: who were a group of businessmen who thought they would 343 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: win what was essentially a bet, tried to argue that 344 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 1: a month is twenty eight days, and then, using that calculation, 345 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:36,440 Speaker 1: Gibbons had lived for twelve months. That argument did not 346 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 1: fly in court, and the group was ordered to pay. 347 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: The business community got a little trepidacious about life insurance 348 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,399 Speaker 1: for a bit after this. Yeah, there were still deals 349 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:51,119 Speaker 1: being made, but it had this gone the way that 350 00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 1: those underwriters wanted, there probably would have been a bigger 351 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: explosion in life insurance earlier on the first line of 352 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 1: that policy contract on William Gibbons, had read Richard Martin, 353 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 1: Citizen and aldermen of London, doth make assurance and causeth 354 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 1: himself to be assured upon the natural life of William Gibbons, Citizen, 355 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 1: Insulter of London. Four and during the space of twelve 356 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:18,400 Speaker 1: months next ensuing after the underwriting hereof by the assurers, 357 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 1: hereafter subscribed fully to be complete and ended. If you're 358 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 1: wondering where the idea came from for a one year 359 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 1: term for the policy on William Gibbons, it was from 360 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: the rules set forth by the Office of Assurances at 361 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:35,639 Speaker 1: the Royal Exchange in London. That office was established in 362 00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 1: fifteen seventy five as a place where people could engage 363 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 1: in what were called public assurances, meaning that the agreements 364 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 1: were made there on the premises and paperwork was filed 365 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: so that if there were any arguments about how the 366 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:53,120 Speaker 1: business went, it could be legally contested. And the office's 367 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 1: regulation stated that you could only insure a person's life 368 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: for one year at a time, and part of the 369 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,160 Speaker 1: reasoning was that up to that point, mutual contribution societies 370 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 1: which anyone could pay into and have some sort of 371 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 1: payout to their next of kin when they died. Were 372 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:11,719 Speaker 1: operating in a really precarious manner where all members, no 373 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: matter how old or young, were being admitted under the 374 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 1: same agreements. So if a lot of elderly people joined 375 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: one year, it meant that there was a greater likelihood 376 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 1: that the funds would significantly be depleted in the following years, 377 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: and there was not a guarantee that members who joined 378 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 1: when they were younger would benefit from their longer membership. 379 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,159 Speaker 1: This was part of what is considered the speculative or 380 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 1: transitional period of insurance. There just wasn't enough scientific data 381 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: to really assess the situation and make value judgments on 382 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 1: the way that benefits were being managed. That one year 383 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 1: limit meant that one or both parties could reconsider the 384 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 1: agreement and its value and risks regularly, even though they 385 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: didn't really have the math in place yet. In just 386 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,199 Speaker 1: a moment, we will talk about the way literal dice 387 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 1: rolls played into all of this, but first we will 388 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:13,959 Speaker 1: pause for a sponsor break. Several things happened in the 389 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 1: gap between the Gibbons Policy and the Hallie Table that 390 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 1: started to form a more coherent picture of how insurance 391 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 1: could actually work as a business that was a little 392 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 1: less like a gamble. For one thing, public sanitation improved, 393 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 1: which in turn improved health and life expectancy. The Bills 394 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: of Mortality started to be seen as a data point 395 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 1: for predictability models, although there still weren't any formulas in 396 00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 1: use to really plug that data into. It's more like 397 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 1: just pattern recognition. Definitely more of a ViBe's and forecasting 398 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:48,640 Speaker 1: situation at this point. But then a big step forward 399 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 1: came once again from a surprising source. A number of 400 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: mathematicians interested not in life insurance but in games started 401 00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:01,159 Speaker 1: to develop the laws of probability. As men like Blaise 402 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,400 Speaker 1: Pascal and Pierre de far Matt and many others started 403 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 1: to consider ways to predict the likelihoods of outcomes in 404 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 1: dice rolls. They were also advancing the mathematics that the 405 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: data points held in documents like the Bills of Mortality 406 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,960 Speaker 1: could be used in This is the start of the 407 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:23,399 Speaker 1: phase that Walford called the period of scientific exactitude. Just 408 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 1: two years before Hallie's table was published, an early instance 409 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: of insurance fraud was tried in the London Court of Chancery, 410 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,359 Speaker 1: and in that case, a man named Thornborough had taken 411 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 1: out a year long policy on a man named Edward Harwell, 412 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: and Thornborough's insurance broker had collected subscriptions to underwrite that policy, 413 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 1: with a testimonial from one of Edward Harwell's neighbors that 414 00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 1: he was in good health. Harwell died not long after 415 00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 1: the policy was issued, and the court found that Thornborough 416 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,920 Speaker 1: had taken out the policy on a man he knew 417 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 1: was in poor health, and that he had no real 418 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 1: connection to Harwill, and that he had duped the subscribers 419 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: into giving up their money. And it was found to 420 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,640 Speaker 1: have not been the first time that Thornborough had mounted 421 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:12,199 Speaker 1: such a scheme. Remember this story. Will reference it briefly 422 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:16,439 Speaker 1: in Part two. In a way more than one hundred 423 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,440 Speaker 1: years after the death of Gibbons and the subsequent payout, 424 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 1: Hallie was offering the business community a way forward that 425 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 1: would give them a better method to determine the risks 426 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,359 Speaker 1: and potential benefits of issuing a policy. And he was 427 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 1: working at a time when insurance law, while it had 428 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 1: been around for more than a century in England, was 429 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 1: still in its infancy. For example, several years after Halle's 430 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,720 Speaker 1: Table came out, there was a lawsuit that established very 431 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 1: specific rules regarding wording in insurance contracts and what they meant. 432 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: In this case, the playwright Sir Robert Howard had died 433 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 1: on September third, sixteen ninety eight, at one a m. 434 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,640 Speaker 1: The time is important to the case. You have probably 435 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:02,159 Speaker 1: seen a portrait of Sir Robert Howard. Flemish painter Anthony 436 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 1: van Dyke made a a well known portrait of him. 437 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 1: Howard had taken out an insurance policy on September third, 438 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:14,239 Speaker 1: sixteen ninety seven, exactly one year before his death, and 439 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: that policy had a term of one year. The underwriters 440 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,639 Speaker 1: claimed that the policy had expired when Howard died, making 441 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 1: the case that after midnight on the evening of September second, 442 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,359 Speaker 1: the contract was done, so a one a m. September 443 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: the third death was not covered in the one hundred 444 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:35,919 Speaker 1: pound policy. This led to a pretty fascinating judgment by 445 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:39,679 Speaker 1: the court. The phrase quote from the day of the 446 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 1: date in the contract, it ruled meant that though it 447 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 1: was signed on September third, it didn't go into effect 448 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:50,800 Speaker 1: until midnight, starting coverage on September fourth. If the policy 449 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,280 Speaker 1: had used the language from the date, it would, according 450 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 1: to the Court, have meant that the coverage began on 451 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 1: the day the contract was signed, and that would have 452 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: ended at midnight on September second. Additionally, the establishment of 453 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,520 Speaker 1: timing specifics included a note from the court the days 454 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,879 Speaker 1: could not be argued fractionally, so the time of the 455 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,399 Speaker 1: day that he died did not matter. Hallie's table was 456 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 1: in regular use less than a decade after he prepared it. 457 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 1: The Society of Assurance for Widows and Orphans was formed 458 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,440 Speaker 1: in sixteen ninety nine. The idea was that its members, 459 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 1: of which there could be two thousand at most, would 460 00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 1: each pay five shillings whenever a member died, and that 461 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 1: would mean that the bereft would receive five hundred pounds 462 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:37,240 Speaker 1: if everyone paid their portion. And the interest of transparency, 463 00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: the society kept its books publicly. There was one register 464 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 1: for the list of members and one that included a 465 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 1: list of their family members who would receive benefits. Claims 466 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,400 Speaker 1: were paid out after they were approved by a group 467 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 1: of thirteen trustees who were members who were elected to 468 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 1: that committee on a yearly basis. When someone died, the 469 00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 1: society had to be notified immediately so that one of 470 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 1: its members could view the body and confirm the death. 471 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:07,959 Speaker 1: Membership was contingent on certification of the subscriber's age and 472 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,719 Speaker 1: that he had an affidavit from a qualified person that 473 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 1: he had quote not known not any known distemper upon him, 474 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 1: and that he was in a very good state of health. 475 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 1: A person could be denied membership if the trustees thought 476 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:26,760 Speaker 1: they looked sickly or elderly. Over time, additional limitations were 477 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: placed on membership, including age limits. Both Halle's Table and 478 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 1: the Bills of Mortality were used as a foundation of 479 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: the Society of Assurances workability. The potential mortality rate and 480 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:42,440 Speaker 1: potential expense for members was explained in their documentation this way, 481 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 1: quote the probable charge of this society may be thus calculated. 482 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 1: The number of people within the limits of the Bills 483 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,000 Speaker 1: of Mortality are supposed by some to be two millions, 484 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 1: by others one and a half million, by all to 485 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,280 Speaker 1: be at least a million. Out of these there die 486 00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 1: about twenty thousand a year, appears by the general Bill 487 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:05,440 Speaker 1: of Mortality et cetera, which is one in fifty. Supposing 488 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,600 Speaker 1: the number of people to be one million, Now, if 489 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 1: but one in fifty dies out of the whole number, 490 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: including women and children, sickly and infirm people, and such 491 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:19,040 Speaker 1: as are ancient and decrepit, we may reasonably calculate that 492 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,280 Speaker 1: not above one in fifty shall die in our society, 493 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 1: which is to consist of such persons as are in health, 494 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 1: and of the different ages above mentioned. And this is 495 00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,920 Speaker 1: but forty in two thousand, so that the probable charge, 496 00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 1: when tis full, will be but ten pounds per annum. 497 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 1: And while tis increasing in proportion to what it has 498 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 1: hitherto done, the advantage must be very great. So that's it. 499 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:50,400 Speaker 1: Everybody gets life assurance. Of course, not not really. At 500 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,960 Speaker 1: this point the idea of a payment to a person's 501 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 1: bereaved dependence was still in a pretty early phase. But 502 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,479 Speaker 1: that's where we're going to end things for today. On 503 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 1: Wednesday will talk about another assurance society and the person 504 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 1: who's considered the first actuary, and whether or not insurance 505 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:12,440 Speaker 1: is a form of gambling, which is a pretty fun 506 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:19,200 Speaker 1: discussion to have. I have a really fun listener mail. Okay, 507 00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 1: this is from our listener Erica, and it's titled Rue 508 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 1: for the Freezer, So you know, I love it. I 509 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 1: have to pull up a little thing on my phone 510 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:34,160 Speaker 1: because I made ready for this. Erica writes, Hi, there 511 00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,080 Speaker 1: in an episode from like the Summer or Something, Holly 512 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 1: mentioned a cookbook had a recipe for a large batch 513 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,480 Speaker 1: of rue that you kept in the freezer and scooped 514 00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 1: out as needed, and it came out perfectly every time. 515 00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,240 Speaker 1: I cannot find the episode so I could see if 516 00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 1: the recipe made it to any show notes. Can you 517 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 1: direct me to the instructions? Thank you, Erica, Oh, Erica, 518 00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,400 Speaker 1: I'm here for you. Because one I love to talk 519 00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,680 Speaker 1: about food too. This lets me talk about one of 520 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:02,920 Speaker 1: my favorite show topics of all time, Vincent Price Kay 521 00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 1: because it was his cookbook that he wrote with his 522 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,040 Speaker 1: wife Mary called A Treasury of Great Recipes, which is 523 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,960 Speaker 1: a really, really lovely cookbook because it's all of the 524 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 1: recipes that they collected from their favorite restaurants and chefs 525 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:17,360 Speaker 1: and they put together. But they also have a lot 526 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 1: of their good cooking tips. And of course this is 527 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:21,600 Speaker 1: a tip I keep on my phone, so I have 528 00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 1: it ready for you. It's a very short entry from 529 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:26,719 Speaker 1: the book, so I'm going to read it. It is 530 00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 1: rue for the roo. We let one half cup butter 531 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,720 Speaker 1: soften at room temperature. Then mix this to a smooth 532 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 1: paste with one cup flour. The butter absorbs the flour 533 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 1: and we end up with one of the third cup's room. 534 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 1: This we freeze in a small pot or bowl covered 535 00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 1: with aluminum foil. When a recipe specifies to stir in 536 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,240 Speaker 1: one tablespoon flour mixed to a smooth paste with one 537 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 1: tablespoon butter, we simply stir in one rounded tablespoon of 538 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: our frozen room set. Yeah that's great. I will add 539 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,600 Speaker 1: this is an also on the subject of freezing things. Yeah, 540 00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,960 Speaker 1: someone whose name I sadly did not write down set 541 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 1: on our social media that a lot of gaspacho recipes freeze. 542 00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 1: Well ah, following my discussion of how delighted I was 543 00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 1: that there was gaspacho in the freezer section in Barcelona 544 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 1: grocery stores. So again, it is wintertime. This is not 545 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,480 Speaker 1: the season for cold soup for me, but this summer 546 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 1: I am definitely gonna try freezing some gaspacho. Yumo. That 547 00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 1: all sounds great? Yeah, uh, that's how you could put 548 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,680 Speaker 1: your roo in the freezer. I would recommend for me, 549 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,360 Speaker 1: not foil but an air tight container. Yeah, that would 550 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,120 Speaker 1: that's what I would do. I usually put mine in 551 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,520 Speaker 1: a pyrex with a lid, and I will say this, 552 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:51,600 Speaker 1: everybody's my lid is going to be different. I get 553 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 1: some inflammation from wheat gluten, so I started using coconut 554 00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 1: flour in mine. That is the most velvety I've ever made, really, 555 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 1: but it does have a little bit of a different 556 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,280 Speaker 1: flavor profile, So keep that in mind. But like for me, 557 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:11,239 Speaker 1: that is the one. Yeah, and you can, like I said, 558 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 1: that's one tiny, tiny piece of a book that is 559 00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:18,080 Speaker 1: full of beautiful recipes and really lovely writing and a 560 00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,560 Speaker 1: lot of good cooking tips. So, like I said, any 561 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,000 Speaker 1: anything that can prompt me to talk about Vincent price, 562 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take it. So thank you. If you would 563 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,520 Speaker 1: like to write to us with questions about Vincent price 564 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:32,960 Speaker 1: or cooking that we may or may not have an 565 00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,480 Speaker 1: answer to, or anything, you can do that at History 566 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,880 Speaker 1: Podcast at iHeartRadio dot com. We're also on social media 567 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,520 Speaker 1: as Missed in History, and you can find us for 568 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,400 Speaker 1: subscription in the iHeartRadio app or anywhere you listen to 569 00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:53,320 Speaker 1: your favorite shows. Stuff you Missed in History Class is 570 00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:57,640 Speaker 1: a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit 571 00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to 572 00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:02,040 Speaker 1: your favorite shows.