WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 3rd, 2025 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:18.720 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordert. Join us each day 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.319 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:38.080 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Francis Donald of RBC 0:00:38.240 --> 0:00:40.680 has this to say, The timing of the government shutdown 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:44.280 is not ideal for the Federal Reserve. Limited visibility into 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:49.440 the September data increases the probability of an October pause. 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:51.600 Francis joins us now from More Francis, good morning. 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:52.360 It's good morning. 0:00:52.560 --> 0:00:54.280 So this is a slightly different say because we've had 0:00:54.280 --> 0:00:55.880 a guests come on the program and say they're not 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:58.560 going to deviate from the dot plot. Ultimately they're expecting 0:00:58.560 --> 0:01:01.320 a raid cut still in our Why wou'd this lead 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:02.120 to a pause. 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:04.560 Well, let's remember chir Powell has talked a lot in 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:06.720 the past, when you're walking in a room and it 0:01:06.760 --> 0:01:10.560 goes dark, you go more slowly, you don't necessarily speed up. 0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:12.800 And at the end of the day, we have to 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:16.720 remember this shutdown is compounding an existing problem, which is 0:01:16.760 --> 0:01:21.200 that our data is being substantially distorted by tariff developments 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:25.440 front loading inventories. We know that companies, clients that we 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:28.240 talk to and others are finding ways to navigate around 0:01:28.319 --> 0:01:32.120 that using things like bonded warehouses for example, or changing 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:35.000 the timing of their purchases. And then on top of that, 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:37.520 now we're going to miss probably a month of solid 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:40.319 evidence as to what actually happened in there. So from 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:42.600 our point of view, just like a company or a 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:44.959 consumer at the end of the day is maybe going 0:01:45.000 --> 0:01:47.520 to say, let's be a little bit more cautious. To us, 0:01:47.560 --> 0:01:49.920 this is going to raise more questions than it is 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:52.560 make it very clear what the definitive path ahead should be. 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:54.720 So A Marie was talking about this earlier on this morning. 0:01:55.040 --> 0:01:58.200 The data itself has been a problem. How dependable is 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:00.960 the data anyway for this federal Well, this is. 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:03.320 The thing for economists right now is there is already 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:06.680 a giant question mark around what data should we be using, 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:09.520 are there biases within the data? Were there will there 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:12.120 be on a go forward basis. We've already for years 0:02:12.160 --> 0:02:14.520 been dealing with low response rates, and we know that 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:16.680 the economy is operating in a way that changes the 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:19.360 way we need to use data. Confidence data, for example, 0:02:19.560 --> 0:02:22.040 in our view, is still very valuable. It explains how 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:24.520 consumers are feeling. But if the top ten percent of 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:27.079 consumers are spending fifty percent of all of the consumption, 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:29.840 then confidence data is not the same valuable tool it 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:33.200 was in the past. Layer on top of that tariffs 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:35.760 and we've been really in a dark place with respect 0:02:35.760 --> 0:02:38.160 to how we can read visibly. And that's why, in 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:40.080 a way, John, I'm not that upset that we're going 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:41.920 to miss a month of data because I think there's 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:44.959 so much obsession over this month to month, in part 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:47.919 driven by the FED, that's highly data dependent. We need 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:49.519 to focus on some of the bigger trends, and the 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:52.040 bigger trends are clear. This is a labor market that 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:54.720 is structurally very different. We don't need the same amount 0:02:54.720 --> 0:02:56.640 of job growth as we did before. We only believe 0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:59.000 that this needs This economy needs to create forty thousand 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:01.640 jobs a month the unemployment rate to stay stable. We 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:03.880 know growth is slowing off the back of tariffs and 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:06.040 some price pressures that are coming through, and we know 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:09.360 inflation is likely to reaccelerate into year end. And I 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:11.600 could for a month go dark on data and tell 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:13.680 you that I'm still fairly confident that will be the 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:16.880 story thirty days from now. But when, of course we're 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:19.639 hypersensitive and we're in an environment where policy makers are 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:22.080 really trying to move months to month, of course the 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.240 market is going to feel a little more uncomfortable with 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:25.280 that lack of visibility. 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:27.280 Are you saying the FED is too data dependent? 0:03:28.240 --> 0:03:30.680 Well, no, What we're saying is that the month to 0:03:30.680 --> 0:03:34.239 month variability in data, this has always been true, sometimes 0:03:34.320 --> 0:03:36.320 leads us in the wrong directions. And I think what's 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:39.400 really challenging right now is that that tariff distortion is 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:42.000 very much still in play. We hear all the time, oh, 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:45.200 tariffs are not inflationary. That may turn out to be true, 0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:47.320 it's not our view, but we won't know that till 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:49.800 the middle of twenty twenty six. So the issue with 0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:52.880 data dependence right now isn't data dependence in and of itself. 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:56.120 It's data dependence in an environment where we don't have 0:03:56.240 --> 0:03:58.400 good reads and our month to month data is not 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:00.680 telling us the true story of the amare economy or 0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:01.560 the American consumer. 0:04:01.640 --> 0:04:03.240 So what do you look at in daylight today? You're 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:06.040 not getting the job support. What's your north star in 0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:07.800 terms of directing you towards these trends? 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:10.800 Well, today's not actually the problem. So any economists would 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:13.640 have released their estimate for where jobs would be last 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:16.880 week and everybody's week ahead. Our estimate was fifty two thousand. 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.320 The problem will be next month when we don't have 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:22.039 the aggregate amount of data that helps us forecast what 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:24.200 happens next. At the end of the day, we tail 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:26.720 clients focus on the trend. We think the unemployment rate 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:29.080 will rise gradually to four and a half four point 0:04:29.120 --> 0:04:31.320 six percent. But we've been through a few cycles, all 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:33.000 of us at this table, if I may say that, 0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:35.960 we know that four point six percent unemployment is still 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:39.560 very low, very tight labor market underneath the surface. So 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:41.640 we are doing what we've been doing for the last year, 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:45.159 much more bottom up work, much more sector focus. Look 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:47.880 at your actual end consumer, which one are you servicing, 0:04:47.880 --> 0:04:49.840 which one are you investing in? And look at their 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:52.159 individual stories, and then of course we have a table 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:54.360 of all the indicators that we look at, from warn 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:56.960 notices to LinkedIn postings that help us get a little 0:04:56.960 --> 0:04:58.640 bit more of a month to month gauge. But the 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:01.080 message here is actually one of leef focus on the 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:03.200 big picture that's probably going to guide you towards better 0:05:03.200 --> 0:05:06.000 investment decisions and better operating decisions if you're running a business. 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:07.719 You'll forgive me for bringing out the shutdown then, but 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:09.320 we do have to talk about it just a little bit, 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:12.000 the government shut down in Washington. It can't have implications 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:13.960 for the economy. Typically we know how the movie goes. 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:17.080 Economy has a bit of a blit, then we accelerate, 0:05:17.080 --> 0:05:18.480 we pick up again, and we look through the whole thing. 0:05:18.520 --> 0:05:20.440 And that's ult to me. How markets play this story too? 0:05:20.680 --> 0:05:23.839 Do you see it's delayed deferred activity? Or are we 0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:25.240 at this point where things are a little bit more 0:05:25.240 --> 0:05:28.200 frenchiolet than where things could be somewhat derailed. 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:30.400 Well, I watch your show in the mornings, and I'll 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:32.760 repeat what just about every economist has told you. Our 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:35.119 traditional rule of thumb is the shutdown is worth aboute 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:37.760 point one percentage points of GDP each week that it 0:05:37.800 --> 0:05:40.480 goes on, and then it becomes nonlinear, likely around the 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:42.800 middle of the month. The longer it's out, the more 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:45.160 it bleeds. For the economy. We're focused on some of 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:47.960 the things related to contract workers as well, so all 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:51.360 the economy that circulates around the government that may see 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:53.240 a pause at the end of the day. You know, 0:05:53.279 --> 0:05:56.240 I talk about the shutdown being emblematic of larger trends, 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:58.720 and there's two that sort of worry us. This economy 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:02.800 was already slowing down, so these additional bumps, they exacerbate 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.360 the problem. They exacerbate the uncertainty component. 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:06.200 But under the. 0:06:06.160 --> 0:06:08.760 Surface, we've also in the past year again we're thinking 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:11.160 about how this relates to the bigger trends, been much 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:13.479 more focused on the fiscal side of the picture, the 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:16.039 policy side of the picture, than the monetary policy side 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:18.400 of the picture. And that's largely because this economy is 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:21.120 becoming less sensitive to the Fed's next move and much 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:23.080 more sensitive to what's happening in Washington. 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:24.360 We see this in the yield curve. 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:26.000 We see this at the long end of the curve, 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:28.800 but many Americans are leveraged to the belly and the 0:06:28.839 --> 0:06:30.839 long end of the yield curve with the FED is 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:34.880 not successfully being able to influence at this point of view, 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:39.120 So acrimonious Washington, to me, is not necessarily about the 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:42.680 GDP impact for September or October. It's about this transformation 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:45.200 where we move away from monetary policy being the core 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:47.839 driver of the business cycle and realize that if we 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:50.240 really want to know where are we, we have to 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:53.400 watch fiscal spending, the deficit and the path for that ahead. 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:56.080 Is this shut down different though? If Trump decides to 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:58.320 make these furloughs permanent. 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:03.680 Absolutely, And so when we look at the numbers, for example, 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:06.080 if we were to see and this is the extreme example, 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:09.160 this wouldn't happen. But if by October seventeenth, that'll be 0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:12.000 the reference week for next month's job number, if we 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:14.440 haven't seen folks come back, you could see the unemployment 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:17.200 rate jump to four point eight percent. Now, our estimate 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:19.400 is that it would then come back down. But these 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:21.440 are the types of numbers that begin to skew the 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:22.400 story we're certain down. 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:24.880 I'm saying, if he decides to say, I actually want 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:27.160 to move more people into the private sector, and I'm 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:31.280 getting rid of these offices, these jobs. Isn't that more 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:32.239 of a permanent effect. 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:34.840 Absolutely, that would be more permanent, but that number is 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:37.360 ultimately probably going to be quite small. But the most 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:39.640 extreme thing, let's say every person would be laid off, 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:41.720 which is not going to happen, you would see that 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.560 number jump to four point eight. Again, this is emplematic 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:47.760 of the bigger picture, which is job growth is slowing. 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:50.480 We are going to see less job creation on a 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:53.080 go forward basis, with the exception of healthcare. Healthcare is 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:55.440 going to continue to be fairly robust there. So this 0:07:55.520 --> 0:08:00.000 is the trend continuing. Slower job growth, slower overall growth, 0:08:00.320 --> 0:08:03.920 less confidence in the economy, and reduced data visibility. It is, 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:06.160 as we say, stagflation. 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:08.600 Light stay with us. 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:21.400 More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. Let's get to Tesla. 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:23.800 I promise you an update. Shares recovering this morning high 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:26.800 by a little more than one percent of following yesterday's slide, 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:30.560 which followed the company reporting record third quarter deliveries. Dan 0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:33.760 ives of Webbush maintaining is outperform rating and writing the 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:36.679 following with must now driving Tesla into its next stage 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:39.800 of growth. As Wartime CEO, we estimate the AI and 0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:43.360 autonomous opportunity is worth at least one trillion dollars alone, 0:08:43.520 --> 0:08:45.480 Dan joins us. Now for more, Dan welcome, Let's just 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:47.480 start with yesterday's move. Then we'll get to the future 0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:50.560 and all that great stuff. How much of that story 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:56.959 with the deliveries, which is a massive pull forward in demand. 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:57.520 I think probably about thirty percent of it was maybe 0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:00.960 a pull forward your relative to incremental b But look, 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:04.800 the demands story is stabilizing, and now I think you're 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:07.040 starting to see that turnaround happen. 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:09.679 But as we've talked about, that's just the appetizer. 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:13.840 The main event is the AI revolution coming to Tesla 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:17.240 with the autonomous and then the robotics piece. I mean, 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:19.600 I think there's gonna be a three trillion dollar mark cav. 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:22.240 That's why I think six hundred dollars is almost a 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:23.679 be's keys for where we see it. 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:25.760 So Dan, you understand the tension well. I feel like 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:27.760 we've covered this together a million times, But it's the 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:30.600 tension between the near term fundamentals and the long term 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:33.880 hope and dreams. The fundamentals at the moment when you 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:38.360 say the demand story stabilizing, stabilizing demand, it's not the 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:41.200 kind of story we'd associate with a multiple like the 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:43.800 one on Tesla right now, Now, Dan, how are we 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:44.120 going to. 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:45.000 Resolve those issues? 0:09:45.040 --> 0:09:47.240 Do we just keep the faith in the multiple and 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:48.679 the stock and the hopes and dreams, or at some 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:51.240 times do we have to reconcile these issues. 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:54.400 Yeah, it's a great point. Look, you're gonna have ten. 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:57.240 Million Teslas on the root and when you think about 0:09:57.480 --> 0:10:03.600 since the beginningonomous value, as you start to see robotaxis 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:07.760 to point thirty thirty five cities, you see full self driving, 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:11.240 get the forty fifty percent of the actual Tesla's out there, 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:14.280 that's the game changer because ultimately I think they're going 0:10:14.320 --> 0:10:17.600 to own eighty ninety percent of the autonomous world over 0:10:17.640 --> 0:10:20.160 the coming years as we get the true what I've 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:22.160 used level for Look, I. 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:24.959 Think that's the reality. I think investors are looking. 0:10:25.360 --> 0:10:29.160 Autonomous is truly what I view is really you know, 0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:35.160 the Goldilock scenario for Tesla because AI physical AI. There's 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:38.520 two great physical phenomenal AI plays out there. 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:41.160 It's in Nvidia and it's Tesla. When it comes to 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:42.000 physical AI. 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:45.480 When it comes to EVS. For Tesla, one of the 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:49.040 biggest competitors is BID, which is absolutely crushing them in Europe. 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:51.280 When it comes to autonomous, who is going to be 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:54.280 their biggest competitor? Is it coming from China? 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:56.840 Look, I think it comes from China ultimately, you know, 0:10:57.160 --> 0:11:00.400 when you think about all the technology, you know insis 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:02.559 that we've seen there, But globally, no one has a 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:07.200 scaling the scope of Tesla not you know, Look, I 0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:10.400 think dy D is obviously going to be the main competition. 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:14.240 But when I think about scale and scope globally, especially 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:16.720 not just in the US, but what we see around 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:19.920 the world, I think Tesla continues to win that battle. 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:21.320 But we don't. 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:24.080 Also, we don't view this as one where there's just 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:27.440 one winner. And I think when you think about autonomous 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:30.800 and you think about this next wave of AI, you know, 0:11:30.840 --> 0:11:34.079 from the chips to the software to the ripple e fact, 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:37.840 it speaks to our view like this AI revolution, we're 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:41.079 still in the second inning of a nine inning game 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:43.800 and ultimately Yankees end up winning that game. 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:46.840 Don't encourage it to. We'll get to that later. Then 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:49.040 let's say you're right, let's find some common ground. The 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:53.360 autonomous opportunity is massive drivelist vehicles, all of that stuff 0:11:53.440 --> 0:11:54.959 I think a lot of people can get on board 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:57.480 with that. But I want to understand why you think 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:01.080 the Tesla path that road is the road's success. So 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:04.640 they're using cameras, Weymous using landa. What kind of technology 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:07.760 do you ultimately think wins out look? 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:11.199 I think it's ultimate Tesla from a data perspective. 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:13.640 When you look at the AI engineers and you look. 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:16.160 At all the improvements that they're going to make on 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:17.959 these next you know sometime. 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:20.520 Let's just give me a second. What dates are you 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:21.040 looking at? 0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:24.000 Because I can go off the weekly trips that Weymous 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:25.640 do in at the moment and that kind of dates, 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:26.840 it looks pretty decent. 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:28.640 What are you stacking that up against? 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:31.920 I look at as Weimo, there're two hundred thousand dollar 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:33.960 cars and essentially five cities. 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:36.400 The scaling scope that Tesla has. 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:39.599 Given, the millions and millions of miles driven and the 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:42.640 ten million vehicles in the road, and everything that they're 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.960 doing in Moscow is being wartime CEO. That's where I 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:49.040 think we see there six months from now, the breakthroughs 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:51.840 will happen, and ultimately when it comes to scale, especially 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:53.959 when you look at robotax and cybercaps. 0:12:54.200 --> 0:12:56.000 No one's going to be able to match, Tessa. 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:58.520 I view that as just basically what was fact as 0:12:58.520 --> 0:12:59.560 it plays out. 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:01.920 So Dan, when it comes to deliveries, they don't even 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:04.280 matter Anymoreks, everyone's so focused on what's going to happen 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:04.800 in the future. 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:09.079 Look, they matter in terms of just we'll call it. 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:12.520 I guess a signal from a stabilization respective, especially after 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:14.920 what we've seen over the last six nine months. But 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:19.960 I think from an investor perspective, it's all about to 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:23.359 a PHARAOHSTO might just like give me marks on autonomous 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:27.960 show me the technology innovations, on the AI story, show 0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:29.720 me that we're going to get the full scale, and 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.680 optimists show me in November to shareolder me that they're 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.120 going to have a big piece of XAI. I mean, 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:37.920 that's why you see Musk. It's a different mood now. 0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:41.400 It's that wartime CEO that we're seeing. Those are the marks, 0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:43.520 and that's how we're going to be looking at six hundred, 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:46.319 seven hundred and ultimately you know a stock I think 0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:47.040 three trillion. 0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:49.320 That's the lots of play for the road ahead. 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:49.559 Dan. 0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:51.920 Before we leave here, the baseball you want to finish 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.079 there Yankees when getting it done? Who do you think 0:13:54.080 --> 0:13:56.280 it's this all done world series like of this year? 0:13:57.559 --> 0:13:59.959 Look, I mean I think Yankees obviously have a great 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.559 each to go. I think they're going to surprise many 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:07.040 out there. I think this could be their year. And look, 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:09.280 Emory there obviously is a good walk charm. 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:10.920 So we got to see how the players out Have. 0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:11.960 We given up on Penn State? 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:12.199 Dan? 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:13.000 Are we done with that? 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:13.240 Now? 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:14.840 Look? 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.880 I'm here, Ombassady at u c A the bounds back starts. 0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:21.920 That's another one Penn State Yankees. 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:24.480 At the at the end, they'll be whole troupe. 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:26.480 Stay with us. 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:39.960 Mulblinpax surveillance coming up after this. Janet Loo Shatikas joins 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:41.880 us now for more Janet. As you know, as is 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:44.000 often the case, this is one or lost in the 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:45.000 court of public opinion. 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:46.720 Who's winning to lose in right now? 0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:48.360 Yeah? 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:49.840 I mean right now? I think if you look at 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.520 the poll, do you do see that Republicans are getting 0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:55.160 a little bit more blame than Democrats are currently, But 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:58.200 both parties are getting a hit from this, and in 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:02.040 general we do see that both per generally do get 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:05.400 some backlash for a government shutdown. The same thing happened 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:09.720 in twenty thirteen, with President Obama getting some of the blame. 0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.640 Even the Republicans kind of put the government into a shutdown. 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:16.000 So both parties may ultimately suffer from this, and that's 0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:18.440 how they kind of have to figure out who's suffering more. 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:21.160 Is where their the pain point may be to actually 0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:22.360 get the government to reopen. 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:24.560 Jennett, what do you say is the off ramp? 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:29.320 So this is going to be kind of a difficult situation. 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:31.800 So the parties are kind of far apart right now. 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:35.080 The Republicans do agree that probably something does need to 0:15:35.080 --> 0:15:37.800 be done to extend the ACA subsidies, probably a short 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:40.920 term extension, maybe a year, maybe a year, with some 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:44.920 amendments of reforms to the process, and so the Democrats 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.440 are pushing for that, but the Republicans are also saying 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:50.080 that they can't do anything until the government is reopened, 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:54.440 while the Democrats are nervous that the Republicans will not 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:56.880 hold their word on this. So what we're thinking is 0:15:56.880 --> 0:15:58.680 that probably what you're going to have to see is 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:02.560 either a major political pressure coming in, which would mean 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:05.000 we're seeing missed paychecks in the middle of the month 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:08.400 for our military members for Congressional staff, which will also 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.640 put pressure. But then also do the moderate members come 0:16:11.680 --> 0:16:14.120 together to figure out how they can figure out some 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.840 sort of agreement to get us out of this shutdown. 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.880 It probably will have to be in some form around 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:23.800 the AC subsidies. The longer this goes on, this could 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:26.800 last two to three weeks, just depending if we don't 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.640 see any momentum towards a deal. As we get later 0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:32.240 into the month, you have the miss paychecks that as pressure. 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:34.760 You start to maybe get some of these premium increase 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:37.440 announces that will add pressure and that could be where 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:38.720 we see the ultimate solution. 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:41.120 Well, the Republicans already picked up three votes in terms 0:16:41.160 --> 0:16:44.960 of Democrats willing to vote for the clean stopgap funding measure. 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:46.760 Who else should we be looking at? 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:51.360 Yeah, I think you look at retiring members, So members 0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:54.720 like Senator Shaheen from New Hampshire, Senator Peters from Michigan 0:16:55.040 --> 0:16:58.840 also watching the Virginia senators since they have a significant 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:03.040 portion of the workforce in their constituencies. Those will also 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:05.800 be key members to watch, so we would want to 0:17:05.840 --> 0:17:08.760 see if there are they have a vote today. Do 0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:13.600 more Democratic senators join on to the clean CR or 0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:16.040 do we go into the weekend and have no movement 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:18.640 at all. If we do see more Democratic centers join, 0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:21.320 then obviously that would be showing a sign that there 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:24.280 is more pressure to get to a deal at some point. 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:26.840 But if we don't, this could definitely start to linger 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:29.159 a lot longer into next week and potentially even the 0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:29.760 following week. 0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:31.960 And how are you thinking about the president's meeting with 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:34.320 russ Vote yesterday and whether or not he was going 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.800 to be making layoffs that usually historically are just furloughs 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:40.240 and those individuals come back to their job permanent. 0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:43.800 Yeah, I mean, this is obviously at least a threat. 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:46.960 So this is something that they think the administration would 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:49.000 like to do, and they see this as an opportunity. 0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.240 This is one of the reasons that Democrats were actually 0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:53.840 worried about having a government shut down the first place, 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:56.119 because they thought that this could be a tactic that 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:58.680 the administration would use. But then at the same time, 0:17:58.720 --> 0:18:02.960 you're also seeing demo prats getting some support among the 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:06.040 federal worker unions saying it's okay that you're doing the 0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:09.560 shutdown because we know we're under attack anyways from this administration. 0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:12.399 So there's a little bit of We could probably definitely 0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:15.800 see some layoffs, some permanent layoffs, but then they also 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:18.520 may be challenged by the courts and that also could 0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:21.000 play into public opinion as well. So that also could 0:18:21.040 --> 0:18:24.200 be something that depending on how these play out, that 0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:27.560 could be key to which side actually gets more blane 0:18:27.640 --> 0:18:30.800