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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action boss.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go throwing.

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting it to cash stop. We'll see most gambles

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Speaker 1: when they go to gamble, they go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabanity you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway. What is up?

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Speaker 1: Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host,

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Speaker 1: Chris Raybon. This is part one of our twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five and the FC Win Totals episodes where we're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk win totals, futures, all that good stuff for the

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Speaker 1: NFC East and the NFC North Part two of two.

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Speaker 1: Next up, we'll do the NFC South and NFC West.

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Speaker 1: Joining me to break it up down none other than

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Speaker 1: one of the sharpest betting minds in the game, the

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck. What is good?

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Speaker 1: We were about two hours down, another two hours to

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Speaker 1: go in our marathon recording session.

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Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to this episodes. I have some hot

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Speaker 2: takes in the East and the North, so let's get

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Speaker 2: into it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's do it. And just as I did at

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the AFC episode. I'll just set up

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Speaker 1: some general trends just for some context as we're talking

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Speaker 1: about these odds. For wind totals, the sweet spot has

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Speaker 1: been the lower the better, essentially five to six and

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Speaker 1: a half, fifty five percent to the over since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and two and sixty five percent of the over

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Speaker 1: since twenty twenty one. All other wind totals fifty two

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Speaker 1: percent to the under since two fifty six percent to

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Speaker 1: the under over the last four years super Bowl odds.

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Speaker 1: Every Super Bowl winner since two when the NFL went

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Speaker 1: to thirty two teams has been forty to one or

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Speaker 1: shorter in preseason odds and top fifteen in Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: odds ranks, so pretty clear delineation there. For divisionwides, the

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Speaker 1: plus ev spot has been betting on teams ranked to

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Speaker 1: finish in last place number four. Teams finished number one

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Speaker 1: about twelve percent of the time over the past two

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Speaker 1: decades plus nine percent imply to odds, so you get

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Speaker 1: about a three percent edge. It's the only of the

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Speaker 1: four spots where you would get an edge just based

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Speaker 1: on the spot alone. And for playoff odds plus two

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Speaker 1: hundred and up about thirty one percent make it compared

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Speaker 1: to twenty one percent implied, so about a ten percent

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Speaker 1: edge there since twenty twenty one. And if you look

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Speaker 1: at the plus one fifty, also about plus two hundred.

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Speaker 1: Starting to see some edges there, but a little bit

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Speaker 1: smaller of a sample sized. And with that, let's get

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Speaker 1: into the NFC East. We got the Eagles weeding away

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half win total and the favorite for

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl it's whats six fifty? Then you got

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Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders with nine and a half wins eighteen

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Speaker 1: to one for the Super Bowl, the Cowboys at seven

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Speaker 1: and a half wins sixty to one for the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: and the Giants bringing up the rear five and a

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Speaker 1: half wins two hundred to one to win the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Stuck mentioned you had some hot takes in the East

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Speaker 1: and the North. I will tell you the same team

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Speaker 1: never wins the East, right it It just doesn't happen.

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Speaker 1: Last What are we going on two decades plus this

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Speaker 1: of this trend.

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Speaker 2: Twenty five years? I think, Yeah, they talks.

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Speaker 1: Me about why the Eagles won't, So why don't think

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Speaker 1: Eagles win the division this year?

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Speaker 2: Well? I like the Eagles and the Commander's unders. I

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Speaker 2: like both their unders. Let's let's start with the Eagles.

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Speaker 2: I mean, obviously one of the most talented rosters. Just

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Speaker 2: smart organization. I didn't love their draft, but who am

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Speaker 2: I to doubt what the Eagles front office does. We'll

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Speaker 2: see when Campbell is ready to go. Dealing with an injury.

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Speaker 2: I think he's gonna be back at training get maybe

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Speaker 2: sometime in August. The is what Fangio said. I do

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Speaker 2: think their defense is going to take a step back.

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Speaker 2: You know they're from that, but it's Fangio year two.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they get even better schematically. Having Cooper Regien is

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Speaker 2: just massive. I know they want him in the nickel,

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Speaker 2: but Faner has been talking about him maybe playing safety,

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Speaker 2: him playing on the outside when they're in base, like

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Speaker 2: that he could answer some questions because there are some

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Speaker 2: questions at safety, maybe that other that second corner spot.

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Speaker 2: You know, if a Dory or Ringo doesn't work out,

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Speaker 2: you can have him on the outside too. So like

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Speaker 2: I mean that that draft of getting Guinnyon and Dejene,

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Speaker 2: like I think directly led to the Eagles Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: and just changed the trajectory of this franchise and this defense. Specifically,

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Speaker 2: but I do have some questions they do that still

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Speaker 2: could be very good, but the edge rush, the depth,

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Speaker 2: a lot of positions, you know, wide receiver, running back,

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Speaker 2: offensive line. And the reason I bring that up is

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Speaker 2: last year they were the second luckiest team in terms

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Speaker 2: of injuries. They were extremely healthy, and if that goes sideways,

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Speaker 2: it you know, it could get ugly depending on where

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Speaker 2: those injuries were. Everything is just pointing down to me.

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Speaker 2: I mean they're in eight and one in one possession games.

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Speaker 2: I think their roster is a little worse off. And look,

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Speaker 2: last year they had. Their schedule gets significantly tougher. They

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Speaker 2: had six games last year against teams that made the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: This year eleven games against teams that made the playoffs

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Speaker 2: last year, the top one of the top ten hardest schedules.

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Speaker 2: They don't have back to back home games the entire season.

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Speaker 2: That's a rarity. And Dallas and the Giants should be better.

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Speaker 2: Not saying either's gonna be really good, but they were

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Speaker 2: disasters last year and just their quarterback situations alone should

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Speaker 2: be better. So the division overall, you're not getting like

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Speaker 2: just four gimmes. So yeah, I project the Eagles at

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Speaker 2: like ten point eight, ten point nine right around there,

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna I'm playing under eleven and a half

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Speaker 2: with the Eagles. So a lot of things like injuries,

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Speaker 2: close games. Division is going to be I think a

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Speaker 2: little tougher at the bottom. The schedule gets much more difficult,

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Speaker 2: so offensive coordinator is there a drop off there? So

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of things that I think may prevent

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Speaker 2: the Eagles from getting to that thirteen twelve, thirteen to

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Speaker 2: fourteen win mark again this year. I like the under

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Speaker 2: on the Eagles. What do you think?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I've wean that way as well. Like I said,

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Speaker 1: I don't like to like just go ham on. These

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Speaker 1: wind totals were still in early June, but I totally agree.

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Speaker 1: I have n't at ten point eight, and I mean

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Speaker 1: their schedule, let's let's revisit this for a second. On

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Speaker 1: the road, you casey, Buffalo Chargers, Bucks, Packers, Bikings, I mean,

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Speaker 1: how many combined wins is that from last year? Then

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Speaker 1: those teams all won ten games double digit games last year.

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Speaker 1: And then like you said, the Gallas and the Giants

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Speaker 1: are better that that makes the divisional slate hard. So

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Speaker 1: no gimmes on the road, none And then at home,

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Speaker 1: he still got a host Detroit, the Rams, Denver, Chicago

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Speaker 1: might be a lot better. Uh So, I mean, and

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Speaker 1: this is now you're also dealing with, like you said,

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator, like I mean, Hurts is generally held up well.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he had a new offensive coordinator. I believe

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Speaker 1: in all but one of his off seasons he had

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Speaker 1: like a repeat. So that probably isn't the worst thing.

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Speaker 1: But Kellen Moore was very good. And then on defense,

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Speaker 1: how he's gonna you know, he's done a great job drafting.

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Speaker 1: And like you said, I think that those Mitchell and

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Speaker 1: and de Gene picks really really saved what could you know,

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Speaker 1: be a much bigger downside if guys get hurt, But

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Speaker 1: you still lost Josh Sweat on the edge, right Johnson, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Gardner Johnson in the second ad Darius Slay who was

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Speaker 1: graded out in a top twenty five corner last year.

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Speaker 1: Orrin Burkes graded out as a top five linebacker last year,

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Speaker 1: Isaiah Rodgers graded out as the top twenty five corner

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Speaker 1: last year. He's gone Milton Williams the top fifteen interior

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Speaker 1: line when he's gone to the Patriots. So even though

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Speaker 1: the defense still looks good, on paper, I don't think

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Speaker 1: the depth is quite a strong. Now, you did get

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Speaker 1: Campbell in the draft, but you know, Nikobe Dean, you

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Speaker 1: know what's his status gonna be. And then there's really

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Speaker 1: just a lot of Yeah. I mean Zach Bond great,

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Speaker 1: I was the best linebacker in the league last year.

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Speaker 1: I mean there's no literally nothing but downside. And even

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Speaker 1: with Dejine and Mitchell, I mean both top eight corns,

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Speaker 1: that's unlikely to repeat even if they're excellent. Uh So,

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Speaker 1: it's just I think all around because of who.

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Speaker 2: They had to pay, Like, who did they really bring

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Speaker 2: in the off season. It's like o Je Larry, who's

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Speaker 2: been very underwhelming. You know, some some tight end depth,

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Speaker 2: A Dori Jackson, it's getting up there in age Josh

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Speaker 2: Uch has been a bust Dylan like that. This this

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Speaker 2: roster is definitely and they lost Beckton as well. We

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Speaker 2: should mention yea interior. So yeah, this roster isn't as

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Speaker 2: good is some one of the best in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Don't get me wrong, But I like the under and

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Speaker 2: I like the under with Washington too.

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Speaker 1: Before we get to Washington, I just a couple more

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Speaker 1: things on the Eagles. Uh defense, tends to regress to

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Speaker 1: the mean more than offense. And you know, even though

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Speaker 1: Saquon gets the well, the kind of the headline was

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Speaker 1: the headliner. Addition, last year, I mean, this defense was excellent,

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Speaker 1: so rushing there, but also Saquon and all those those

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Speaker 1: like eighty r touchdown runs. I mean, there's just so

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Speaker 1: many ways for this team togress. So yeah, with you

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Speaker 1: on that, But talk to me about Washington. There win

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Speaker 1: totals nine and a half. Again, they're eighteen and one

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Speaker 1: for the Super Bowl. Jaydon Daniels looked really good in

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Speaker 1: year one, but they were one in four against playoff

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Speaker 1: teams in the regular season, three and five overall regular

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Speaker 1: and postseason. Why do you think they're another under candidate.

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Speaker 2: Well, they beat one playoff team last year in the

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Speaker 2: regular season. Yeah, that was the Eagles with picket at

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Speaker 2: by three and they were down by like twenty that

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Speaker 2: game when Hurt's got hurt. So this year they have

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Speaker 2: eight games against teams that made the playoffs last year,

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Speaker 2: so their schedule definitely gets tougher. I do think they

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Speaker 2: upgraded the roster overall. Yeah, you bring in tunsol Kin,

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Speaker 2: lawng Goldman. Run defense was a major problem for them

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Speaker 2: last year, So you just bring in some more beef

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Speaker 2: up front. I do think that two rookies can really

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Speaker 2: raise the ceiling of this team if Connery can hit

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Speaker 2: at tackle and Amos can give them something at corner,

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Speaker 2: because if if Amos hits at corner, then Sandra still

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Speaker 2: you can have back on the inside, which is where

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Speaker 2: I think he's most effective with the nickel spot. So

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Speaker 2: those are two that I'm gonna watch. The safeties are bad.

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Speaker 2: What's going on with the McLaren contract. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: That's something definitely worth washing, worth watching, I should say.

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Speaker 2: And then Lattimore, is he washed? Would be There's been

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Speaker 2: a lot of injuries so like was last year, he

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Speaker 2: just wasn't healthy when he came back. But that's big too,

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Speaker 2: because just there's secondary doesn't give me a lot of confidence.

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Speaker 2: Now there's some upside there, like the Lattimore gets back

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Speaker 2: to form and it was just an injury, and you

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Speaker 2: know Amos hits I like sandersoul in the nickel like,

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Speaker 2: so there's an upside of the corner spot. Safety's still

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Speaker 2: be a little iffy, like how Bobby Wagner is he

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Speaker 2: like he's put is he thirty five. Now is he

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Speaker 2: gonna fall off? If so, the linebacker group definitely ask questions.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, this and then like Jay Daniels had an

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Speaker 2: amazing year, that doesn't necessarily mean he's gonna have an

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Speaker 2: amazing second year. I think he's a franchise quarterback. He's

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Speaker 2: probably proven that. But you could have a year like

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Speaker 2: c J. Stroud did. You could have a down year.

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Speaker 2: We've seen sophomore sumps from quarterbacks. I don't think it's

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Speaker 2: just a given that he's gonna have as good of

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Speaker 2: a year as he did last year. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: project them eight seven, which is very probably a lot

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Speaker 2: lower than most people. And their win total is what

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Speaker 2: nine to four? Yeah, but the choice a little bit

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Speaker 2: to the under. So yeah, I show value in the under.

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Speaker 2: They also want eight and four and one possession games.

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Speaker 2: They had a couple of miraculous wins. It was just

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Speaker 2: a miraculous year for Washington. So and like I mentioned

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Speaker 2: with the Eagles, the Cowboys and Giants should be better

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Speaker 2: and Washington's schedule gets more difficult. So I show value

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Speaker 2: on the under. So I show in the under Washington

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Speaker 2: and Philly. The thing is, I don't I don't have

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Speaker 2: the stones or the desire to bet on the Giants

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Speaker 2: or the Cowboys to win the division.

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Speaker 1: Last year, you're asking like, who would you be your

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Speaker 1: long I know, well luckily the Eagles won the division.

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Speaker 1: But we were talking about Washington, Washington. I mean you,

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Speaker 1: I mean, if it's not it doesn't have to be

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Speaker 1: for the division because if you look at it, like

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Speaker 1: I said, the division, it's a one and four chance

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Speaker 1: and then really the only time you're getting plus V

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Speaker 1: is with these long shots anyway. So I mean you

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Speaker 1: could make a case, but you know, just a win

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Speaker 1: to it over or you know, maybe a long shot.

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Speaker 1: In the NFC, you could even bet playoffs because NFC's

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Speaker 1: playoff picture is a little not a set in stone,

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Speaker 1: especially if the NFC North beats itself up. So but

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Speaker 1: I see your point on the on Washington, I have them,

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Speaker 1: you have them about nine to four, so not crazy

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Speaker 1: under but I think the the struggles against playoff teams

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Speaker 1: in the regular season does worry me a bit. Now,

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Speaker 1: there was you know, there was like Jane Daniels was

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Speaker 1: hurt a little bit, like he wasn't one hundred percent,

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Speaker 1: I don't think, but he is a you know, running quarterback,

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Speaker 1: there is potential for injury there. But I think this

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Speaker 1: team is Washington, I think has like so if you

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Speaker 1: think if you think the NFC East trend holds, which

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think you could put too much

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Speaker 1: stock into it, even though it's been like two and

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Speaker 1: a half decades since they had a repeat winner. But

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Speaker 1: I think the way you belt Washington is either fade

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Speaker 1: them or you fade them on like wind towed everything.

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Speaker 1: But they're also the most likely team to win a

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Speaker 1: division if not Philly, because there's a lot of upside

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Speaker 1: with the team. You know, if Tunsul, if they get

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Speaker 1: another you know, top twenty tackle, you're out of Tunsil.

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Speaker 1: If Deebo Samuel can return to form, that would be

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Speaker 1: a big upgrade. I'm not he might be times over,

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Speaker 1: but yeah no.

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Speaker 2: But if Deebo is like can get back to even

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Speaker 2: anywhere close that that's big. There's just a lot of questions. Now, yeah,

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Speaker 2: they're right, they're still upside there and Dan.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it it really comes down to a lot of

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Speaker 1: these veterans, which which means it's health and just maintaining.

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Speaker 1: So you know, if like let's say all four of

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Speaker 1: those guys hit, which I'm not out of the realm

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Speaker 1: of possibility. You got, you know, the pretty fairly well

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Speaker 1: coached team and an Eagles team that just got gutted

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Speaker 1: even though it still pretty strong on paper. I think

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Speaker 1: what the only real way to bet Washington in the positive,

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, would be to take that division. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and then everything else would just be a fade. But

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Speaker 1: that that's the one bet I would see in the

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Speaker 1: positive for Washington, Sure I could see it. Uh, Dallas

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Speaker 1: seven and a half is the win total. I have

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Speaker 1: them right around seven and a half. Curious as to

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Speaker 1: your thoughts. You know, they're going from McCarthy now the

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Speaker 1: Schottenheimer as the headman. But Shottenheimer's been there, you know

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Speaker 1: in the OC row hasn't been calling calling plays from

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Speaker 1: what I understand. You also got Matt Everfuss coming over

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Speaker 1: after that stint in Chicago. He's on He's at the

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Speaker 1: defensive coordinator spot and place the Zimmer, So there could

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Speaker 1: be a learning curve here. You do have some talent

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Speaker 1: on the defensive side. Still, this was a perennial with

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Speaker 1: twelve you know, twelve win team roster's not too different.

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Speaker 1: You might even be better if Pickens could just keep

294
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Speaker 1: his mouth shutting and play football and not close troubles.

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Speaker 1: So I mean, what are your thoughts, what are your

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Speaker 1: thoughts on his Dallas team? Because and one hand, it

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Speaker 1: feels like they're a little underrated, but it's also the

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Speaker 1: cowboy they never see, they never get to the promised land.

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Speaker 2: It seems like, yeah, I hate the seat and imor

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Speaker 2: higher such a I mean, this team, this franchise is

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Speaker 2: so poorly run it's insane. I mean, like just look

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Speaker 2: at some of the trades. The they like the Lance trade.

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Speaker 2: Who else? Who's that mingo? I didn't love the I

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Speaker 2: don't love the I don't think Booker. I don't love

305
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Speaker 2: the Booker pick either. And they lost Martin. Uh, they're

306
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Speaker 2: gonna need Booker to hit. But the offensive line now

307
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Speaker 2: is a question mark. Outside of bb who I think

308
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Speaker 2: is good in Smith, there's some questions on the offensive line.

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Speaker 2: Where's Dak Like is he not as mobile? Like? How

310
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Speaker 2: healthy is he? And pick Pickens get getting trading for

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Speaker 2: Pickens for probably one year. I mean, they need wide

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Speaker 2: receiver help and he does have the upside, but he's

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Speaker 2: a perfect fit for that circus in Dallas. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 2: who knows?

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Speaker 1: Garry knows Jerry new Jerry knows Garry. Because the Cowboys,

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Speaker 1: I would say, roster management wise, like they've been a

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Speaker 1: little better. I would say over these past few years.

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Speaker 2: They've been decent drafting, like yeah, over ten twenty years.

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Speaker 2: But like their trades there, how they pay players.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, the Mingo, I mean Mingo that was I

321
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Speaker 1: don't even know how the whatever. I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: trash Mingo. But yeah, they've made some questionable ones. Definitely.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like we'll see. I'm curious to watch. This is

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Speaker 2: in the weeds. But the left tackle spot between Guy

325
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Speaker 2: and maybe Richards. But there's questions on this offensive line. Now,

326
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Speaker 2: what will Pickles give you? The backfield is still terrible,

327
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Speaker 2: Like I mean, maybe Javonte Williams he just know now

328
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Speaker 2: it'll be healthy, but he absolutely not. And then you

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Speaker 2: have Miles Sanders. Blue would be the best.

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Speaker 1: I think Blue is the best player in their backfoot already.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it'll be good.

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Speaker 1: They might keep him in that seventh round. Guy what's

333
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Speaker 1: his name, philm Off.

334
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Speaker 2: They might keep fil rookies.

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Speaker 1: They might have two rookies and one washed vet and

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Speaker 1: uh yeah.

337
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Speaker 2: But seot Aubery like what he liked generally I think,

338
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Speaker 2: I don't know, you want to run the ball more,

339
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,359
Speaker 2: but they're gonna come out here and pass the ferguson.

340
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Speaker 2: But Steele can't pass block, he can run. I don't know.

341
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Speaker 2: The defense still has questions. They probably still can't stop

342
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Speaker 2: the run. But they'll be better than last year. Last

343
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Speaker 2: year was a disaster. It's I protect them at seven eight,

344
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Speaker 2: seven nine, which is close to their windows seven half

345
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Speaker 2: juice to the over. It's Dallas man, it'll be a circus.

346
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Speaker 2: And I didn't love the hire. There's still too many

347
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Speaker 2: holes on this roster. It's just not being managed well,

348
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Speaker 2: even though they've drafted decently. I like some of their

349
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Speaker 2: draft picks, like I like Blue. I liked the corner

350
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Speaker 2: out of Ecu if he's healthy. I thought he's a

351
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Speaker 2: steal if he ends up being if he ends up

352
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Speaker 2: bouncing back from his injury. But yeah, this is like

353
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Speaker 2: a middle of the road team in the NFC. I

354
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Speaker 2: think the numbers are not right.

355
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Speaker 1: So curs is your thoughts, because you know I was

356
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Speaker 1: talking about how really the only plus ev spot you

357
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Speaker 1: could if you're betting teams to you know, make or

358
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Speaker 1: miss the playoffs has been on those these long like

359
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 1: two to one or greater got uh, you know, long shots.

360
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 1: There's not too many of them each year. The Cowboys

361
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:34,400
Speaker 1: are plus two o five to make the playoffs. Now,

362
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Speaker 1: if you're fading, yeah, because if you're fading Billy and

363
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Speaker 1: or Washington, like Washington is like a top eight team

364
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Speaker 1: in super Bold. So the Dallas could conceive what we

365
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Speaker 1: take one of those two teams as places and and

366
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Speaker 1: everything would just the rest of the NFC could just

367
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Speaker 1: shake out just how it shakes out.

368
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Speaker 2: I agree, because you also look at like the NFC West,

369
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Speaker 2: like there's that maybe that's the division that could get

370
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Speaker 2: the most in. But the NFC South you're probably getting

371
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Speaker 2: one team right. The NFC North, I think might be.

372
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Speaker 2: There's some teams that are a little overrated. I think

373
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Speaker 2: the Lions, the Vikings. We'll get to that. There's some

374
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Speaker 2: things that go sideways with the Packers. I do think

375
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:31,120
Speaker 2: the Bears are going to be pretty good. We'll get

376
00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 2: to that. But yeah, there's there's a potential playoffs spot

377
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 2: or two available, especially if the Eagles and or Washington

378
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 2: really don't live up to expectations. So I don't I

379
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Speaker 2: don't hate, and if I had a bet, I don't

380
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 2: hate like five to one for Dallas to win the division.

381
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 2: I guess I should say, uh, six to one. I

382
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,920
Speaker 2: don't hate it. I just don't try. Just it's the Cowboys,

383
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 2: like I but they've had a ton of success in

384
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Speaker 2: the regular season. I just hate Schottenharmor, I really do.

385
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 2: I hate that, maybe much worse than McCarthy because I mean,

386
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Speaker 2: dabeccarthy would win twelve games every year. Like, yes, I

387
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Speaker 2: think it can be worse than McCarthy. Okay, so yeah,

388
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Speaker 2: I thin guess I'm talking to myself. I don't I

389
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 2: don't hate some Dallas long shots playoffs. I don't think

390
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 2: they have like super Bow upside of playoffs division. Yeah,

391
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 2: I don't hate it, but I'm kind of betting on

392
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Speaker 2: them by fading the Eagles in Washington already.

393
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Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean you're getting some.

394
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Speaker 2: I don't hate it, but I'm directly also doing it. Yeah,

395
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 2: but I don't hate it. I'll probably I'll add some.

396
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, even if it's just like a you know, a

397
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: tenth of what you know, you can kind of headg

398
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 1: you out. But the Giants five and a half even

399
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 1: money to the over. So one of these teams in

400
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 1: that sweet spot for for win total overs that five

401
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,239
Speaker 1: to six and a half range. They're thirty to one

402
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: and win a division. But you know, the quarterback room Wilson,

403
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 1: Dart Winston, I would say that's better than Jonesdvito, and

404
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 1: Way Tyrod. Yeah, I mean Tyron. You know Tyrod as

405
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 1: the start has been averaging like seventeen points. Again, his

406
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 1: teams have been averaging seventeen points a game for the

407
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:10,679
Speaker 1: last few years. So it's not like Tyron. I know

408
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 1: he's got like, you know, top top interception rate and

409
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 1: all that, but I mean he's not really anything special.

410
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 1: Just so yeah, I would say the quarterback room is

411
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 1: better the defense.

412
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Speaker 2: I mean they would just play Davito when it was

413
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 2: yeah right, yeah, so yeah, yeah, but yeah, see the

414
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 2: quarterback rooms should be better regardless of who gets in there.

415
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Speaker 1: Defense ABDW. Carter, Okay, like that better, uh upgraded the

416
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: running back room. You know Scatterbo. I'd take him over

417
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: his upside at least over Singletary. Tracy was all right

418
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 1: last year. I mean I can't find many places with

419
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 1: his team is going to be worse than last year.

420
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Speaker 1: What do you think about the Giants?

421
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm also a huge Holland fan. I know he

422
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 2: had a down year last year, and I love Nuben.

423
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 2: I'm a Nuben Truther. I think he's only going to

424
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 2: continue to get better. So I think safety they're much better.

425
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 2: Linebacker they're better now they have Carter. Their offensive line

426
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 2: should be better. That was a disaster. Sure, I don't

427
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 2: know the offensive line is gonna be good, but you

428
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 2: get Thomas back like that. Everything was already bad, but

429
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 2: everything fell apart once Thomas got hurt. So getting him

430
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 2: back at left tackle will improve the offensive line. You know,

431
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 2: they're defensive end position a little overwhelmed, underwhelming, but I

432
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 2: think that they'll be better at a lot of positions.

433
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 2: So last year they were three and fourteen. There was

434
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 2: injuries on the offensive line. The quarterback position was a disaster.

435
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 2: They went one in eight in one possession games. So yeah,

436
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 2: I mean I project them close to six wins. That's

437
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 2: a lie five to six. So after from five point

438
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 2: six wins, their win totals about five point two with

439
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 2: juice ish yeah run there.

440
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you five five like even money, So yeah.

441
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I lean over here with the Giants. The

442
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 2: problem is it's the schedule. The schedule is vicious. House

443
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 2: is the schedule for three and fourteen team. So you

444
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 2: start at Washington, then you're at Dallas, two divisional road

445
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 2: games to start, then k C Chargers at the Saints,

446
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:31,679
Speaker 2: like the Saints are probably the worst team the NFL.

447
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 2: That comes after those four tough games before you host

448
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 2: the Eagles, Like that's a brutal spot, going down to

449
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 2: New Orleans, like that's supposed to be your easiest game.

450
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 2: Then you're home against Philly. Then you're at Denver, at Philly,

451
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 2: San France, at Chicago, Green Bay at Detroit. After all

452
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 2: that tough spot, then you're going up to New England.

453
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 2: Before you're by like thirteen straight weeks of playing, and

454
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 2: then you close out the year Washington, Minnesota, oh, like,

455
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 2: head out west to the to Vegas and then closed

456
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 2: at home against Dallas, Like where is a break? There's

457
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,199
Speaker 2: no breaks, no no boto.

458
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 1: Yeah no bottom week fourteen, So like eat with a

459
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback.

460
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 2: It's vicious. So I need them to be better. Like

461
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,959
Speaker 2: the good thing is they play Philly, and I think

462
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 2: they'll be better. They played Philly like early in the year.

463
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:20,360
Speaker 2: So like, because I'm fading Washington and Philly at least

464
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 2: three of the four games are in the first half

465
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,880
Speaker 2: of the season, because if it does go sideways, it's

466
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,439
Speaker 2: still not gonna be a great team. And like then

467
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 2: they could just throw a dart into the fire and

468
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 2: who knows how it goes, you know, So which makes

469
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 2: me a little headson one on the wind. Total, so

470
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 2: I lean over. But with a schedule and already fading

471
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 2: Philly and Washington probably staying away. But the Giants should

472
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 2: definitely be improved. And I think it's over nothing at

473
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: that five and five mark.

474
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have them five eight. It's really the schedule

475
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 1: is just tough, and because I don't know exactly who's

476
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,640
Speaker 1: going to start what games at quarterback and how many. Yeah,

477
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 1: nothing for me yet.

478
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 2: That's something about the too in the summer boat.

479
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean the thing with the Browns. I

480
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: think all four of them could be similar quality, whereas

481
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: I think, like Dart has there is some upside at

482
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 1: least with Dart and with Elston. I mean at it's

483
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 1: been a fishing at times. So I mean, yeah, it's yeah,

484
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 1: nothing for me, just just the schedules brutal. But if

485
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:21,880
Speaker 1: we if we got a better sense of who's who's

486
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 1: gonna be there at quarterback, I might have a play

487
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: on the Giants. Let's go to the NFC Norse Detroit

488
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 1: favored to win with the win total of ten and

489
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 1: a half, green Bay nine and a half, Minnesota and

490
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: Chicago both around eight and a half. Sometimes you see

491
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 1: them seven and a half with a big juice to

492
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: the over. Super Bowl wise, Detroit plus eight fifty sometimes

493
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:53,360
Speaker 1: or even shorter than that, green Bay twenty two to one,

494
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: what was about twenty to one, Minnesota thirty to one,

495
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 1: the Bears thirty five to win. So all of these

496
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 1: teams fit inside that forty to one threshold of Super

497
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: Bowl winners. Since two thousand and two, Detroit is plus

498
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 1: one thirty five for the division, green Bay plus two sixty,

499
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: Minnesota four to one, and the Bears four and a

500
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 1: half to one. So we'll start with the Lions. I mean,

501
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,239
Speaker 1: just an excellent season for them at fifteen and two

502
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 1: just unravels against Shadon Daniels and the Commanders a home

503
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,120
Speaker 1: game against the terrible defense, and Detroit doesn't get home

504
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 1: because their defense is even more terrible. And now I

505
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 1: mean it stuck. The schedule is tough, the division is tough.

506
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: What do you what do you see for this Lion

507
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 1: squad in twenty twenty five.

508
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 2: I love they're under I'm fading Detroit. I see everyone

509
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 2: just saying Detroit the Super Bowl features, like everyone is

510
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 2: all about Detroit. I have major questions about this team,

511
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 2: Like I project them at nine to seven to five,

512
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 2: the under ten and a half. So number one Ben

513
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 2: Johnson's no longer there. I think it's a massive loss.

514
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 2: Jared Goff can't get his handheld anymore. Who's he been under?

515
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 2: He's been get his hand held from Ben Johnson.

516
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 1: And engstrings gone too, has been there since twenty twenty.

517
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 1: Johnson's is twenty nineteen. They're both gone. Engstrem was the

518
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: pass game coordinator, so I'm sure he worked a lot

519
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: with GoF as well.

520
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 2: I mean, Goff is that cushy situations in that reguard

521
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 2: and now you got to worry about the offensive line

522
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 2: and interior pressure and Jared Goff spells disaster. The Ragnow

523
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 2: retirement is massive. I mean, he's unbelievable. Now you might

524
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 2: have You're gonna have a new center, maybe two rookie guards.

525
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 2: Like this is the strength of the Lions offense was

526
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 2: that offensive line and Ben Johnson. I do think Aaron

527
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 2: Glenn like I wasn't a fan. He was too predictable,

528
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 2: and the d should be healthier. So I'm not as

529
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 2: worried about the defense. I still don't think it's going

530
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 2: to be an elite defense, especially against the league quarterbacks.

531
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 2: But you also got way more outdoor golf this year

532
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 2: than you did last year. I'm fading this team. I

533
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 2: think the loss of Johnson, the loss of rag now

534
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 2: in that Division two, I'll make them prove that they

535
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 2: get to eleven plus wins last year. I know they

536
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 2: won fifteen games. They went seven to two and one

537
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 2: possession games. I'm lower than the market on Detroit. I

538
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked if they missed the playoffs. I'm probably

539
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 2: gonna have a bet on that, mister, the playoff. What

540
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 2: are they missed the playoffs?

541
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 1: Which that's a good question. Let's see it. Gotta be

542
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: at least plus two hundred, Yeah, plus two hundred on

543
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: the dot plus two hundred and miss the playoffs minus

544
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 1: two fifty to make totally agree. I have their win

545
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: tot wins projected wins at nine point nine. I think

546
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 1: the loss of not only you're losing Johnson and Engstrand

547
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: and more outdoor golf and interior pressure on GoF the

548
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: schedule I have it is a top three hardest schedule

549
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 1: in the week.

550
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 2: Number one, number one. I don't even mention that I'm

551
00:30:58,560 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 2: the hardest schedule in the NFL.

552
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 1: I mean your road game. You talk like at Philly,

553
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: k C Baltimore, and then and Washington and since Rams

554
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 1: and since the and the Rams, and you still got

555
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 1: to play Green at Green Bay, Minnesota in Chicago in

556
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: the division and then home is no cakewalk. I mean

557
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh. You know, Dallas should be better. You

558
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 1: mentioned the Giant should be better. The division again, it's

559
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 1: eleven playoff teams, the Lion's face from a year ago

560
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 1: and uh double digit win totals since two thousand and two.

561
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: The defense, we know the kind of downside the defense has,

562
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: and honestly, the defense I think regresses. No matter what

563
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a defensive ranked fifth and DVA

564
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 1: last year. This is not a top five DVOA talent

565
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 1: defense in my opinion, Glenn or not, you know what

566
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 1: I mean. So I think the defense regresses. That's shown.

567
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 1: You know, defenses have shown to revert to the mean

568
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 1: and the offense which is third in DVOA. I think

569
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: is in for some aggression as well, for the reasons

570
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: we just talked about. And then the special teams don't

571
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: nowhere to go but down because it rant number one.

572
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think the Lions are fade. They are

573
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: the NFC favor second, there's a number two team in

574
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 1: terms of Super Bowl olds in the NFC. I know

575
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 1: we're kind of fading Philly as well. I would still

576
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 1: rather have Philly. I think this division, I mean even

577
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 1: the last place you know, projected to be last place

578
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 1: Bears or Vikings depending.

579
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 2: Where you look.

580
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: But Detroit could lose both games to those teams. So

581
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 1: uh yeah, Detroit a lot of question marks. Don't know

582
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 1: what we're gonna get on the interior line. The tackles

583
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 1: are gonna be great, the skill positions are going to

584
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 1: be great, But where what are we getting from golf

585
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: with the you know, worker with a bunch of new people.

586
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 2: Not sure.

587
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,640
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588
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616
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617
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 1: twenty two to one to win the Super Bowl. I

618
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 1: think Jordan Love, I know they kind of went into

619
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 1: this run heavy shell last year and a lot of

620
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 1: I mean, they had a lot of positive game scripts

621
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 1: and then, but they also just didn't farewell against playoff teams.

622
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:57,000
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623
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:02,000
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624
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,560
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625
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:08,000
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626
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:12,239
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627
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 1: easily correct well floor five and one to the win

628
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 1: total over going over by one point eight wins. So

629
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 1: he's been he's been great at exceeding expectations. But I

630
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 1: think I think Jordan Love had a better season than

631
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 1: people think last year. But what are your thoughts on

632
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: on green Bay?

633
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 2: I like green Bay definitely ask some questions. I might

634
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 2: invest in some upside. I there's someone I could see

635
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 2: coming out of the NFC YEP that's in this twenty

636
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,720
Speaker 2: twenty five to one range. It might be it's screen

637
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 2: bay for me. Like will the offensive line get better

638
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 2: with Jenkins probably moving to center as possible? I think

639
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 2: Myers is it's gonna be an upgrade there. But the

640
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 2: guards everything has to shift into place. They definitely have

641
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 2: the weapons and love. I'm a love buyer. This love

642
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 2: is very polarizing right now. I believe in love. I

643
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 2: believe in love. Uh put that one, okay, I'm a

644
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 2: I'm a love believer. The my thoughts, I'm trying to

645
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 2: talk about love without hunting myself to death. But there

646
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 2: was also a ton of drops, Like the receiver errors

647
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 2: last year were insane by the way they had. I mean,

648
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 2: you won't talk about weapons. They have the weapons. The

649
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 2: packers love receiving. How many receivers are on this team. Uh,

650
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 2: that's where I kind of disagree with, Like, I don't

651
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 2: know they they drafted Golden and Williams, and I mean

652
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,320
Speaker 2: they have so many weapons to work with. But Marshall

653
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 2: Lloyd will be Lloyd, so Willie by the way they

654
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: drop issues. Williams might be another guy with drop issues,

655
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 2: but he just played big ja that's all.

656
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 1: Yeah.

657
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 2: No, I uh, I think it has a ton of upside.

658
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 2: He's yeah, bobbles bobbles the ball out there.

659
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 1: You could have like one of those Chase Claypool seasons

660
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 1: where like remember Chase Crepe had like nine touchdowns in

661
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 1: his first year, didn't Yeah, he touched the ball like

662
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 1: thirty times and get like seven touchdowns or something like that.

663
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think the offensive line has a chance

664
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 2: to improve. Actually, they have the weapons there. I believe

665
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 2: in love Jesus, and I believe in the floor too

666
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 2: most importantly. And the defense, I think athlete who I

667
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,360
Speaker 2: was a big fan of last year, huge fan of

668
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 2: that hire who wouldn't be just on the upgrade alone,

669
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:45,240
Speaker 2: but he did a tremendous job. The defense improved significantly,

670
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 2: and I mean where they go, DVA. They probably went

671
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 2: from like bottom seven to top ten at the least.

672
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,080
Speaker 2: I don't have the numbers in front of me right now.

673
00:37:54,800 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 2: They still can't really get natural pressure. They were they

674
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 2: generated the number one pressure rate in the NFL when

675
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 2: they blitzed or stunted. That was on Halfley. But they can't.

676
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 2: They couldn't really play coverage on the back end and

677
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,919
Speaker 2: let and get natural pressure. I would have probably tried

678
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 2: to address that like early in the draft or and

679
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 2: maybe they still can. There's some still some guys out

680
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:23,280
Speaker 2: there that worries me a bit, and then the cornerback

681
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 2: position like that is what could hold them back. So

682
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 2: they're going to release we're recording this on Monday. Well,

683
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 2: I guess they've cut Alexander today. They announced at this

684
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 2: weekend they're I mean, Alexander has been in and out

685
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,440
Speaker 2: of the line up every other game, but without him

686
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 2: last year there are other cornerbacks gave up one hundred

687
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,800
Speaker 2: and eleven passer rating with him in the lineup, it

688
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 2: was seventy one. So now you're not going to have him.

689
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 2: You got rid of Stokes, which is I mean, who cares.

690
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:58,359
Speaker 2: But like the cornerback room, it's like it's like, how

691
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 2: many slot corners do you that are out to play

692
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 2: on the outside. They thought that they saw a bunch

693
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 2: of slot corners because you've got Hobbs yep, where they

694
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 2: want to start on the outside. He's like a slot

695
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 2: corner and Nixon they want to put him on the outside,

696
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 2: like he's a slot corner and he was one of

697
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 2: their best blitzers. Like, so how is the I'm fine

698
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 2: with their their safeties are good with Williams and McKinney,

699
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 2: But how does the cornerback position shake out? And that's

700
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 2: even more important because they're not necessarily getting natural edge

701
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 2: pressure with their defensive line like they need to blitz

702
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 2: and so I trust Haflee to figure some things out.

703
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 2: But there's definitely some questions at the cornerback position specifically,

704
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 2: so I want to see how that shakes out. But

705
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 2: if they can figure that out, and I think this

706
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 2: team has a ton of upside. It's a tough division,

707
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:00,879
Speaker 2: no doubt about it. I project them like nine to eight,

708
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 2: so I'm a little higher than the market would lean over,

709
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 2: but probably want to buy more of the upside. I'm

710
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:14,840
Speaker 2: a little conflicted, though, because I also like the Bears

711
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 2: to win the division uh at close to five to one.

712
00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: But let me get your thoughts on the Packers before

713
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 2: we get there.

714
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 1: I like them, I like all their I like I

715
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 1: like their I lean over their win total again just

716
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,800
Speaker 1: because thoroughly, but like them for Super Bowl on NFC,

717
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 1: I think is where you want to take more long

718
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 1: shots because it's what of more wide open without that

719
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:38,240
Speaker 1: you know, big three kind of entrenched.

720
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:39,280
Speaker 2: Uh.

721
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 1: I think I think you can play. You just have

722
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,399
Speaker 1: to kind of uh probably you know, work it out

723
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 1: between now, like how much of a unit you know,

724
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 1: you spread out between the Packers and the Bears. But

725
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: I I think you could play both for the division

726
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 1: Packers close to three to one, Bears close to five

727
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:57,320
Speaker 1: to one, because I think the Lions are just overrated

728
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 1: at the top of the division. So I do want

729
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 1: to take advantage of So I do want Packers.

730
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna We're gonna Packers Division yep airs division lines

731
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 3: win total under and then we're gonna have to watch

732
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 3: Dan Campbell dance on my grave for when they go

733
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 3: thirteen and four.

734
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 2: But no, I agree, I agree with your center.

735
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 1: And And to go back to the Packers again, like

736
00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 1: their big issue is okay, they struggle versus playoff teas,

737
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 1: but I mean they had, you know, a couple of

738
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 1: close losses to the Lions, and well one of those

739
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 1: games is like in Weather's is Weird.

740
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 2: And love was hurt really hurt that game. Pubs hurt

741
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 2: a lot of the year. Yeah, That's some other thing

742
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 2: people don't talk about. Love was dealing with injuries for

743
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 2: a good portion.

744
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 1: Of the season, and that's the key, because so Love

745
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 1: dealing with injuries for portions of the season. We know

746
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: his volume went down, and I think everyone's a little

747
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: freaked out by that, But look at his deficiency in

748
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:52,399
Speaker 1: QBR sixty nine point three, fifth out of thirty six

749
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 1: qualified quarterbacks, net yards per attempt seven point five, fourth

750
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 1: out of thirty six qualified coquarterbacks, sack rate three point

751
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 1: two percent, third out of thirty six, sacked fourteen times

752
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 1: in fifteen games. That like, this guy can get the

753
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 1: ball downfield. He just got a speedy first round receiver.

754
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 1: Uh he's been efficient pretty much every year. He was

755
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 1: able to cut down on the turnovers down the stretch

756
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 1: last year. Uh O, line is good.

757
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 2: The d be better with Champions at center, Lloyd is

758
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 2: the backup running back. I think it'll be better. The

759
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 2: weapons are better, they've already had a ton, but and

760
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 2: then you have the floor like.

761
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 1: And and on defense. You went from twenty seventh to

762
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:40,959
Speaker 1: seventh first year without Joe Barry with halfy so half

763
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 1: half half league. So yeah, there's a lot of upside

764
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 1: of the CEM My agree the Alexander. You know, absence is

765
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 1: going to be concerning, and uh, but that's really it.

766
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:57,399
Speaker 1: I mean before it's always goes over five and one

767
00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: with a bus one eight over over his win total

768
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:03,439
Speaker 1: in six years. Too much upside not to buy this team.

769
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:07,319
Speaker 1: And because we think the Lions are gonna struggle. I

770
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: think the win total was the one I'm least interested in.

771
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 1: I still projected over, but definitely want some of that division.

772
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:18,799
Speaker 1: Definitely want some of that super Bowl because this team,

773
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 1: you got an efficient quarterback, a good coach, top ten

774
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: defense by the numbers. The only real blemishes that you

775
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 1: lost the teams that were the team that happened to

776
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 1: be even better than you and won like fourteen to

777
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 1: fifteen games. I'm not going to knock them too much

778
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:35,439
Speaker 1: for that. Let's talk the Let's talk to Bears though.

779
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 1: So the Bears, they get Ben Johnson, their win total

780
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 1: find it seven and a half juice way to the

781
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 1: over or eight and a half with some plus juice

782
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 1: to the over. And Ben Johnson's the headliner. You got

783
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:54,799
Speaker 1: Dennis Allen as a defensive coordinator. Yeah, first time head

784
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 1: coaches fifty fifty six to forty five and four in

785
00:43:58,160 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 1: two thousand and two to the over on their win

786
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 1: tow and the offensive line, you add an entirely new

787
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 1: interior with uh Joe Toney left guard from Kansas City,

788
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 1: Dalmon Center Atlanta, and then Jodah Jackson right guard from

789
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 1: the Rams. He also drafted a tackle Ozzie Tropo in

790
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 1: round two. H Everyone on the offensive line, as it stands,

791
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 1: would have graded out above average at PFF last year

792
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 1: most improved of in the NFL YEP. And then they

793
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:35,160
Speaker 1: added a first round tit en. They added a second

794
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: round speed uh quick you know, quick game slat wide

795
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 1: receiver in Luther Burden out of Missouri. UH. They even

796
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 1: helped their return game Devin Duverney Brady Jarard on defense

797
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:50,799
Speaker 1: to the line. Now he's older, but still still a

798
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 1: plus UH player on the interior Daloe and Denny bow

799
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 1: He still got sweat, Dexter. I mean you got you're

800
00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 1: starting to at least have a decent front. Seven Two

801
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: of your three corners back to finished top thirteen in

802
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 1: PFF grade. Johnson was number twelve, Gordon on the inside

803
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 1: number thirteen, and then you have like four different safeties

804
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 1: that could be you know, plus's you know, Bayard Hicks

805
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 1: Olwen's risker if he ever can get healthy. The linebackers

806
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 1: aren't bad. They overpaid for him, but they're still okay.

807
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 1: So there's not many holes on this team. So I agree.

808
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,439
Speaker 1: I think they're They're just as live as anyone else

809
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:30,279
Speaker 1: and to win this division, and unlike the Vikings, their

810
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 1: quarterback has year experience.

811
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:36,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, saying I love love the Bears. I've been doing

812
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 2: We've been doing this chill for seven years. I've been

813
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 2: betting the NFL seriously for god knows how long. But

814
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 2: since i've been tracking, I've never bet a Bears over

815
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 2: and then my most bet under team over the last

816
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:54,800
Speaker 2: fifteen years. Oh wow. And like, I've never been bullish

817
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 2: on the Bear since like the mid two thousands when

818
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 2: they had like the dominant defenses and they would win

819
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:03,760
Speaker 2: games with like Kyle Warten thirteen to ten with totals

820
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 2: that were like thirty three and a half. But I'm

821
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 2: bullish from the Bears. Shout out big kat uh. I. Yeah,

822
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 2: they're this probably the most up the most improved offensive

823
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:25,240
Speaker 2: line in the NFL. I massive upgrade coaching staff wise,

824
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 2: So I think it's going to do wonders for Caleb

825
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 2: Williams in addition to that improved offensive line. I think

826
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:38,200
Speaker 2: all the pieces are there on the defense, and I

827
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 2: like the way that the schedule breaks, just like It's

828
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 2: a tough schedule, no doubt. That's that's why I only

829
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:45,320
Speaker 2: project them at like eight, particularly eight and a half wins.

830
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 2: But I'm buying the upside of Ben Johnson of Caleb

831
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 2: Williams making that leap what they did. I like their

832
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 2: love their draft. I actually would have went Warren, but

833
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:57,399
Speaker 2: I think lovel One's gonna be good. But like what

834
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 2: Ben Johnson could have done with Warren, like that would

835
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 2: have been fun to watch. But they do have one

836
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 2: of the five hart Oft schedules for my numbers in

837
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 2: the NFL. It's not easy, but I like the way

838
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:14,359
Speaker 2: that it broke like man, I like them getting Mini

839
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 2: week one. Ben Jonson had a lot of success by

840
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:22,880
Speaker 2: the way against that Vikings defense over the past two years.

841
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 2: I liked their buys before going to Washington, major major

842
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,440
Speaker 2: revenge game from the scene of the crime last year

843
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 2: when they lost on that Hail Mary. So the schedule

844
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 2: is definitely not easy. They also get outdoor golf in

845
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 2: the last game. Of the year at home in Chicago.

846
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 2: That could be a meaningful game, and maybe they get

847
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 2: some close game luck with a better coach. And they're

848
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:53,400
Speaker 2: five and thirteen one possession games over the past two years.

849
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, nineteen of the past twenty two years a

850
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,800
Speaker 2: team has gone from worst to first in the division.

851
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 2: Last year it didn't happen. I think there's a good

852
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 2: chance it happens this year. And the Bears are very

853
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 2: good candidate. I like them the division. You can find

854
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 2: five to one out there. I'm in.

855
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 1: Do we like Super Bowl thirty five to one or

856
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:17,080
Speaker 1: we're trying to just go win total and division.

857
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:21,279
Speaker 2: I'm not quite there yet. I prefer the Packers for

858
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 2: the super Bowl, but that makes sense. I wouldn't follow

859
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 2: anyone for buying up more upside on the Bears, not

860
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 2: for me, just yet. I think like I'm gonna see

861
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 2: Kata Williams get into the playoffs, maybe win a game

862
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 2: or two, and I think that's probably their ceiling. But

863
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:41,880
Speaker 2: yann Cy's wide open. I wouldn't follow anyone, not for me.

864
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 2: I like the bigger upside for the Packers, but I'm

865
00:48:46,040 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 2: playing the Bears win the division, so we want division.

866
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 2: No win to I'm saying away from wind total, like

867
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 2: I'm not that far off from where it's projected, but

868
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:55,080
Speaker 2: I like the upside and I love what they did,

869
00:48:56,840 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 2: and I'm lower on Detroit so and there's some things

870
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 2: that could go sideways with green Bay, you know at

871
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 2: cornerback and like I think it's going to be a

872
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:11,279
Speaker 2: close rights at the end. Like there's like I have

873
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 2: Detroit in green Bay projected right around nine to seven

874
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:19,400
Speaker 2: nine eight. I Chicago like eight six, and I have

875
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 2: the Vikings at eight six as well, and getting a

876
00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 2: very good number on the Bears, who I think have

877
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 2: major upside this year. So yeah, I like Chicago for

878
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:38,359
Speaker 2: the division, like the Vikings, first time quarterback, a lot

879
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 2: more roster turnover, you're getting less than three to one.

880
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 1: Not for me, Yeah, Bears, I I like them. Division

881
00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:54,120
Speaker 1: would lean over on their wind total and would lean

882
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 1: for the make playoffs at PLUSLYM sixty's kind of a

883
00:49:57,200 --> 00:50:00,880
Speaker 1: hedge on the division because again, I think there's an

884
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 1: expectation that multiple teams are gonna make the playoffs. In

885
00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:07,320
Speaker 1: the NFC North, the Bears generally have the lowest odds,

886
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:10,840
Speaker 1: the longest odds. Excuse me, so just a little bit

887
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 1: of hedge on that, but yeah, I agree. The Division

888
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:17,720
Speaker 1: is definitely the highest up side play here for the Bears,

889
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:21,439
Speaker 1: so like that. And then the Vikings, I mean they

890
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:23,759
Speaker 1: kind of gravi it. They kind of oscillate between it's

891
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:27,719
Speaker 1: just like overachieving, like fourteen win team under O'Connell and

892
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 1: it's like very very mediocre team, which they probably are.

893
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 1: And I mean, I think their home schedule is pretty tough.

894
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 1: You got Philly, Baltimore, Washington, Sincy, Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago

895
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 1: on the road. Not too crazy, but you still play

896
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 1: the division and the Chargers in LA is not crazy

897
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 1: but good solid team. Two games, you play two games overseas.

898
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:59,839
Speaker 2: That's actually helpful because those are two road games. Yeah,

899
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:03,239
Speaker 2: that they get off their schedule so they only have

900
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 2: seven true road games. And then you're in you're in Europe,

901
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 2: you know, two weeks in a row. That hurts the Browns.

902
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 2: So I think that's beneficial, but I don't they their schedule.

903
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 2: Who drives is the third hardest in the NFL. You

904
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:25,520
Speaker 2: have a basically rookie quarterback in McCarthy, who I'm not

905
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 2: sold on yet. Now again, I don't think anyone knows

906
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 2: about quarterbacks. So if he's you know, as a Jade

907
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 2: Daniel season, I'll be proven wrong. The vic Is also

908
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 2: went nine to one in one position games last year.

909
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:42,880
Speaker 2: But you're gonna have this new quarterback and the best

910
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 2: part of your schedule, the easiest part is in the

911
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 2: beginning where you get you know, you're at Chicago, I

912
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 2: like the Bears Week one, by the way, uh at Chicago.

913
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 2: Then you're home against Atlanta, home against Cincy. Then you

914
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 2: get Pittsburgh and Cleveland overseas. Right, those five games, that's

915
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 2: a pretty winnable stretch of games. You want to come

916
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 2: out of there like three and two. You know, if

917
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 2: you want to reach the aspirations. I'm sure the Vikings have,

918
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:12,480
Speaker 2: but brand new quarterback, it could be a slow start.

919
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,759
Speaker 2: And if it is, then you have your bye Week

920
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:23,680
Speaker 2: six and then Philly at Chargers, at Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago

921
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 2: at green Bay at Seattle in a tough spot, home

922
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:29,879
Speaker 2: against Washington at Dallas at New York, Detroit, green Bay.

923
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 2: Like that is brutal. So McArthur gets off to a

924
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:38,240
Speaker 2: slow start, I mean, you're you got a major, major

925
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 2: hill to climb. So I mean I project them at

926
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 2: eight six, which market's pretty sharp one. The Vikings number here,

927
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:48,319
Speaker 2: I think it'll be a good team. I think they'll

928
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 2: probably fight a guess they finish eight to nine. I

929
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 2: wanted to fade them, but I just I do have

930
00:52:57,200 --> 00:53:04,040
Speaker 2: too much respect for O'Connell and Laws, so uh faitting

931
00:53:04,040 --> 00:53:06,360
Speaker 2: them the other in other ways with like Bears and

932
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 2: Packers exposure. But Vikings aren't for me. But I'm not

933
00:53:11,719 --> 00:53:12,439
Speaker 2: fading them either.

934
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:15,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually read under on their wind to me,

935
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:18,400
Speaker 1: this team, we know they're not as good as they

936
00:53:18,400 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 1: were last year. They actually had a point.

937
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:23,439
Speaker 2: Where I agree. But don't you think like Flores and

938
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 2: O'Connell are just going to overperform like market expectations like that,

939
00:53:28,560 --> 00:53:30,640
Speaker 2: They're just going to get the best out of their units.

940
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:33,920
Speaker 2: Like think about what O'Connell did when I mean just

941
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:36,799
Speaker 2: with Darnold, but think about what he did the year

942
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 2: before with all the other quarterbacks.

943
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, but they went seven and ten.

944
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:46,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, but they were were their quarterbacks so like obs yeah,

945
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 2: like Cousins, Moens, So McCarthy has a wide range of outcomes.

946
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:54,719
Speaker 2: I wish I could peg down exactly what he's gonna

947
00:53:54,719 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 2: be like. But I just feel like they're gonna squeeze

948
00:53:57,680 --> 00:53:59,680
Speaker 2: the most out a roster, psyching the benefit of the doubt.

949
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 2: So I'm staying away, but I respect why you would

950
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 2: lean under for sure.

951
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, like if you so, they overperformed their point differential

952
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,759
Speaker 1: or their Fagrian wins by two point nine. They won

953
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:15,879
Speaker 1: fourteen games. They were an eleven point one win team

954
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:19,839
Speaker 1: by point differential. If you look historically at teams that

955
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 1: have overperformed by two or more the next season, they

956
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 1: go over their win total just thirty two percent of

957
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:32,720
Speaker 1: the time fourteen thirty with three pushes since two thousand

958
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:37,279
Speaker 1: and two. That is one of the probably the strongest

959
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:40,879
Speaker 1: under trend you will see. And if we like green Bay,

960
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:42,919
Speaker 1: I know we don't like Detroit as much. We don't

961
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:46,399
Speaker 1: think they're gonna completely go belly up, but green Bay,

962
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:50,839
Speaker 1: we like Chicago. Detroit could still be Detroit, Minnesota could be.

963
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 1: There could be a gap between the top three and

964
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 1: Minnesota and his divisions. So I think you're gonna get

965
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:59,080
Speaker 1: I mean, we've been alternating between fourteen win seasons and

966
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:01,359
Speaker 1: seven win seasons, O'Connell. I think we get. I think

967
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:03,680
Speaker 1: we get closer for seven win team this year. I

968
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 1: have them projected for just under eight, So yeah, definitely

969
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,440
Speaker 1: lean under again. It's it's thoroughly so not gonna hold

970
00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 1: you hold anyone to really bet in any win totals,

971
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:17,719
Speaker 1: but definitely a fade for me. It is Minnesota, just

972
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 1: based on how I feel about Free Bay and Chicago.

973
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 1: All right, So if you're looking for a recap of

974
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:26,000
Speaker 1: all our bets, we'll have that in part two, which

975
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:27,920
Speaker 1: we also cover the South and West and one who

976
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:30,239
Speaker 1: are recap of our best bets for all of the

977
00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 1: divisions in the NFC, so be sure to check that out. Also,

978
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 1: our two AFC episodes are out now, be sure to

979
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:41,520
Speaker 1: check those out as well. You can find Stuck at

980
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:43,759
Speaker 1: Stucky two and Meet at Chris Raybond on x at

981
00:55:43,760 --> 00:55:46,120
Speaker 1: those same hand was on a free award winning action

982
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:50,240
Speaker 1: network at Until next time, Let's get this money, Let's.

983
00:55:50,040 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 2: Goption Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

984
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:07,120
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

985
00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:10,240
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler