1 00:00:02,240 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: From the heart of where innovation, money and power collive 2 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:10,879 Speaker 1: in Silicon Valley and beyond. This is Bloomberg Technology with 3 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 1: Emily Jay. I'm Emily changing San Francisco, and this is 4 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Technology coming up in the next hour. A wild 5 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 1: day to end a wild week. The SMP on the 6 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: rink of a bear market bounces back thanks to a 7 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 1: dramatic late session rally, though still on its longest losing 8 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: streak in more than twenty years. We'll try to make 9 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 1: sense of the madness plus panic in both public and 10 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: private markets. We're gonna explore how startups are getting creative 11 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: as they try to stay afloat and Bitcoin dipping below dollars, 12 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 1: How long does the crypto crunch keep up? And is 13 00:00:56,480 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: their hope on the horizon. We'll discuss all that in 14 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 1: a moment. But first it looked like we'd end the 15 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: day for sure in bear market territory. But a late 16 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 1: afternoon bounce back saved the day. Is it only a 17 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: matter of time though, bloom said Ludlow here to walk 18 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 1: through the movers and who is feeling the most pain? Right? 19 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: Get you get to Friday afternoon and you see this 20 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 1: on the screen, zero point zero one percent flat on 21 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: the SMP five and you think it's been a nothing 22 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:26,119 Speaker 1: kind of day. Not so volatility across equity markets. There 23 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 1: was this late come back on the SMP five hundred. 24 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: We escaped that bare market territory, that bear market label. 25 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 1: But you look at the NAZAC one hundred was still 26 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 1: softed by three tenths and one percent, very tech heavy index, 27 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: trading at its lowest level since November. On a weekly basis, 28 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: SMPI also lower by around three percent in seventh consecutive 29 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: weekly decline, which we'll talk about later in the show. 30 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: Bitcoin has also been interesting. It kind of held its 31 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,639 Speaker 1: own earlier in Friday's session above thirty thousand dollars be token, 32 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: but fell away frankly in the latter hours of Friday's trading, 33 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: now just above dollars per token. In this volatility and 34 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: equity markets, it was much more chill in the bond markets. 35 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: You look at the US tenure yield two point eight percent. 36 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: Yes we're down five basis points, but it wasn't one 37 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: of these days where we saw a big twelve or 38 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: four teen basis point jump or decline. Much more calm 39 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,519 Speaker 1: bond market, even though we did see a move into 40 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: haven assets risk off kind of sentiment. You see the 41 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 1: dollar getting strength as well. Ultimately, this is the story 42 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: coming me into my Bloomberg terminal. A bear market label 43 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: or a bear market territory is where we're falling on 44 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:38,079 Speaker 1: an index or an asset from its most recent high. 45 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 1: We were at that level throughout much of Friday's session, 46 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,959 Speaker 1: but that late comeback sees us down eighteen point six 47 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:47,639 Speaker 1: percent from that January third high on the SMP five. 48 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: The question really is the direction to travel from this point. 49 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: Do we continue to see pressure on equity markets or 50 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 1: do we turn a corner going into next week. We're 51 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 1: hoping to turn a corner m because I'll be honest, 52 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,799 Speaker 1: it's been a stressful week. I'm exhausted, you're exhausted, and 53 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 1: we could all do with some positivity. Lastly, some specific movies. 54 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: We want to talk about Apple Interesting up two tens 55 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: of one percent on Friday's session, but it's been a 56 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 1: real drag on the index throughout the week. And Tesla 57 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: actually also it's lost a hundred ten billion dollars a 58 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: market cap over the last five days or so. It 59 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 1: has been a real drag on the index, and you 60 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 1: forget and one hand, we're thinking about the FED, we're 61 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: thinking about inflation, we're looking for the outlook on higher rates. 62 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,519 Speaker 1: But we still have supply chain problems, we still have 63 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: lockdowns in China, and we're really focused on the impact 64 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: on US corporates that that's having dear really interesting earnings, 65 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 1: disappoint a big plunge on that stock down Foard, a 66 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: big drag on the SMP five. What's the story there, 67 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 1: supply chain issues. And lastly, I'm looking at ross stores down. 68 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: The other big story of the week, retail, the consumer, 69 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 1: the missed estimates, the cut forecasts, the tepid outlook. The 70 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 1: world is changing m and there's a lot to considering 71 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 1: the markets obviously interesting indeed on the back of those 72 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:03,119 Speaker 1: targeting results, thank you. While we're seeing tech stocks down 73 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: across the board, as and mentioned, I want to talk 74 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: about all this and more with Robert Kentwell, portfolio manager 75 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 1: at Upholdings, the firm behind the compound Kings et F 76 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 1: which includes a number of megacat tech stocks, and also 77 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: joined by Dan Eyes, managing director of red Bush Securities, 78 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 1: who cover some of the biggest names in the eye 79 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:20,600 Speaker 1: of this storm. Robert, I want to start with you, 80 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: how much farther do you think we have to go 81 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 1: before we hit bottom here? Well, that was a pretty 82 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: negative setup. Uh, let's see, Uh, let's see if we 83 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: can find a silver lining in all this. Um. You know, 84 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 1: the one thing that's been particularly unique to us about 85 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 1: this sell off has been how uniform it's been across 86 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 1: so many different technology companies, from e commerce to media 87 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: to software, and but that doesn't necessarily reveal what's been 88 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,480 Speaker 1: happening underneath the surface. So in retail and an e 89 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: commerce and the media, you've been seeing subscriptions canceled, you 90 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,600 Speaker 1: can see spending pullback, you've been seeing margins compressed from 91 00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: all the supply chain issues that you've been talking about. 92 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 1: But one area that stuck out to us is cloud computing. 93 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:06,919 Speaker 1: And you take a business like Amazon that's down thirty 94 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 1: seven percent year to day, that has an enormous amount 95 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: of wealth destruction in a single in a single security. 96 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 1: But because AWS has still performed so well, Amazon's prices 97 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 1: actually down about fifth year sixty on evaluation basis. And 98 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: so what we've been telling investors in an environment like 99 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: this is you're being given one of these few opportunities 100 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: to ditch some of these losers, ditch these companies that 101 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 1: are burning cash with flawed business models, because you're getting 102 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 1: opportunities by great businesses like aws or service now that 103 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: have actually been growing in spite of what the market 104 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: has been saying about their share Robert, who are the losers? Well, uh, 105 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 1: there's you certainly have the carbonas. I mean, the companies 106 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: that have had these extremely marketing driven growth stories that 107 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: are very expensive to fund. You know, you and I 108 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 1: we talked a lot about the right sharing companies last 109 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 1: time we were together. Peloton obviously falls into this group. 110 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,600 Speaker 1: But any business where you see them spending more of 111 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: their gross profit on marketing dollars than any other opex 112 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: slide item, that's usually a red flag. And those tend 113 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 1: to be the companies now if you throw a screen 114 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: up of you know, take gross profit minus marketing, those 115 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: are the businesses that right now are all struggling the 116 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 1: most because it's only getting more and more expensive to 117 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: acquire customers when you get into these demand m evaporating 118 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: climates like the one that we're in right now. Dan, 119 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: you of course cover some of the biggest names that 120 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,720 Speaker 1: are in focus here. For example, Apple, which you know, 121 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: facing some some some some challenges that are you know 122 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: now facing companies across the board. How do you think 123 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 1: Apple weathers this? Do you think Apple has further to fall? 124 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: And you know, does Apple keep innovating? Is this is 125 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 1: safe by right now? I mean, look, I think it 126 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: continues to be a rock with Gibraltar stock and a 127 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,160 Speaker 1: business model in terms of where we see iPhone the 128 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 1: name on the other side of the storm. And I believe, 129 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: as we've talked about holding up much better, they're expect expectation. 130 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 1: But I think right now is your other guests talking 131 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: about everything that you can get thrown out in risk 132 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: off environment that creates the opportunities to own these means. 133 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 1: And when you look at Apple, we think the services 134 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: business and women is worked over a trillion dollars microsofts 135 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 1: another example, it's all going to be induscriminate and selling. 136 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 1: That's the opportunity. You know, in terms of how we're 137 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: handholding horns, Robert, is Apple it aimed to you that 138 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: stands out as something that will survive the storm. I 139 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: mean Apple, you know you're not gonna find a lot 140 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 1: of people who don't think Apple is going to keep innovating. Yeah, 141 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 1: it's like it's fine. I mean, it's it's a safe 142 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: place to put money. It's probably not the place where 143 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 1: you're gonna get these, you know, devastatingly awesome investment returns 144 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: for the next ten years. That's what I think is 145 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: also really exciting about a market like this is you 146 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 1: get to even look past the fundamentals some of these 147 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: businesses right now, and investors are reevaluating saying which pieces 148 00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: of technology you're actually gonna matter the most over the 149 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:08,400 Speaker 1: next ten years. And everything was focused around the iPhone 150 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: in the app store for the last ten years, and 151 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: those are likely to continue to remain important, but they're 152 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: gonna look much more mature, and you see that in 153 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 1: some of the regulatory dealings that you know, we're having 154 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 1: to shake out with with businesses like Apple right now. 155 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: But we think, you know, there's opportunities to look, you know, 156 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: deeper down, and you know, you did a great interview 157 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: to the night with Dave Zuoki over roadblocks. We think 158 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:33,599 Speaker 1: that platform has the potential will be one of the 159 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 1: most important businesses. It is right now tracking to be 160 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 1: bigger than Nintendo. How many assets are there that exists 161 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 1: in the market of public investor can participate in to 162 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: get to live with that type of household recognition. So 163 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: whether it's a business like roadblocks for a cloud computing 164 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 1: platform like in AWS, or enablers like data down, these 165 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 1: are some of the enabling technologies that we think are 166 00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 1: gonna matter most um this decade. And you then check 167 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 1: out that interview with David Buzuki the see of Roadblocks 168 00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: on Studio one. Point out, Dan, I want you to 169 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 1: react to some of the things Robert just said there. 170 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: Let's talk about Apple. Is Apple just the safe that 171 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: maybe too safe in this environment? I mean splin adjusted 172 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 1: stock six hundred they said the same thing about it 173 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: shape at a hundred hours and now okay, remember it 174 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: goes back to your Apple continues to be so much 175 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: more intervention beyond I think how investors appreciate it because 176 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:34,719 Speaker 1: what we've seen install base, it's a billion iPhones or 177 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 1: some having upgrade last three and a half years. Then 178 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:40,320 Speaker 1: you look at their being intellator room game in terms 179 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 1: of the chip side, plus services like Robert talked about, 180 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: I think indeeds environments. You have to look at software, 181 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 1: fiber security and the years when we believe we're gonna 182 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 1: be in terms on the stalwart side and Apple is 183 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:55,959 Speaker 1: going to be one of them, and it's one the 184 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: haters will continue to hate. But to see more. In 185 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 1: my opinion, we will it again to a blue trillion 186 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 1: dollar mark up once the inscriminate selling stops. Okay uh, 187 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 1: And I can't let you go without talking about Tesla, 188 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: which is you know now no longer the top stock 189 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 1: in Kathy Wood's flagship fund of course, facing some um 190 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 1: different forces based on what's going on with the Musk 191 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: and Twitter deal. What do you think, well, the story 192 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,959 Speaker 1: for Tesla will continue to be here and and and 193 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 1: how much will Tesla stocks suffer from the uncertainty over 194 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: whether or not it's CEO is going to buy Twitter? 195 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: M Well, the book first off, in terms of China 196 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: and the zero COVID situation, that's been a huge headwind. 197 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 1: I think you know they're op soft deliveries and that's 198 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: over our price target this week. When it comes to Twitter, 199 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: it's become a full on circus show that's almost turned 200 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,439 Speaker 1: into a twilight zone. And you know, you look at Musk, 201 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 1: he opened Pandora's box and tomm in about the need 202 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:59,479 Speaker 1: to hand holding. You know, it continues to be uncertainty 203 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 1: not just Twitter in terms on the test of stock 204 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:06,600 Speaker 1: perspective throw distraction situation, that's something he needs to give 205 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: comfort to investors at a turn where risk goships are 206 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 1: getting thrown out the window. Robert, what's your take on 207 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: this Tesla Twitter situation and and now the fact that 208 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 1: they are intricately entwined and do I have to have 209 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 1: a take? Uh? Of course everybody has to have a take. 210 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 1: Look Twitter Twitters. I actually think no matter what happens, 211 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: whether Elon bias Twitter or not, I do believe that 212 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: Twitter is going to turn out to be a better 213 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: company three or four years down the road as a 214 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 1: result of this moment of turmoil because it is forcing 215 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 1: the company looking where to reevaluate its business model. They're 216 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: realizing that they can get away with charging their biggest accounts, 217 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 1: uh for you know, tweeting, and they should be right. 218 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: We're on Twitter, it's on we pay to be on Twitter, 219 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,839 Speaker 1: but they don't charge us anything. So there's absolutely a 220 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:01,199 Speaker 1: way to unlock you know, traditional social media modernization mechanisms. 221 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 1: They haven't taken advantage of that. No matter who's runing 222 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 1: a company posts all this stuff that's gifts or about um, 223 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,319 Speaker 1: you know, we think that's now much more likely to happen. Um. 224 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: We're actually we're kind of wondering pay you know, Twitter Board, 225 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: maybe you reopen the process up, like why didn't you 226 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 1: run a full process to begin with? Why didn't we 227 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 1: get multiple bidders in here? Why did you, you know, 228 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: do a deal with Elon all by himself? You know, 229 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:26,599 Speaker 1: why didn't you see if Google wanted to take a 230 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 1: swing at it? Because who knows, the regulators haven't been 231 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:31,959 Speaker 1: quite as aggressive as people feared that they might be. 232 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: So we think that this saga is far from over 233 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,839 Speaker 1: and that there's a wide range of potential outcomes for Twitter. 234 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 1: And as it pertains the test lad, it's still a 235 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: car company, um, and so it doesn't kind of fall 236 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: into our software and digital advertising universe that we follow 237 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 1: really closely. All Right, I knew you'd have a take, 238 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 1: So I'm glad I've asked. Thank you for sharing that 239 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 1: with us, Robert Kentwell of Upholdings, Dan, I've always good 240 00:12:57,280 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: to have you as well. We'll see what next week. 241 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: Called belts are tightening across the board and startups are 242 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:15,320 Speaker 1: also feeling the pain, with valuations being cut and layoffs underway. 243 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 1: For more. Now I'm joined by Johnny Price, the vice 244 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: president of fundraising, we founder. So Johnny, first of all, 245 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: you know, we see what's happening in the public markets. 246 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: It's a lot more difficult to understand exactly what's happening 247 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 1: in the private markets. What are you seeing? Just how 248 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: much uncertainty and quite frankly panic is there. Yeah, there's 249 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,959 Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty. It's the right word. UM. I 250 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 1: think we're seeing less contraction, especially early stage. I think 251 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:44,959 Speaker 1: growth stage is contracting a little more in recent months. 252 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 1: Early stage, I think we're seeing less to date. UM 253 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: getting kind of mixed reactions from vcs and founders that 254 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 1: I'm talking to. UM, But obviously I'm not sure if 255 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 1: you saw that. You know why Combinator, you know, their 256 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: founders recently saying, you know, buckle up, you know, raining 257 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:06,839 Speaker 1: rain in the spending, get to default alive, get to 258 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: profitability asap because it could be a rough a few 259 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,319 Speaker 1: few months and years ahead. Well exactly, you've got y 260 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:16,839 Speaker 1: combinators saying that, You've got other vcs sending out their 261 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: black Swan membos. On the other hand, I saw this 262 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: from Ali Partov, who's an early stage investor he tweeted, 263 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 1: Unlike vcs predicting doom, I'm bullish for early stage startup. 264 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 1: This downturn differs from two thousand and two thousand eight. 265 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 1: If you're an early stage CEO, don't panic, don't obsess 266 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: about extending runway, obsessed about making something people want. There's 267 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: a whole thread below it. What's your reaction to that? 268 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 1: Would you agree? Um? Yeah, I think you could argue that. Um. 269 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 1: I think I'm I'm a little more pessimistic. Maybe. I 270 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 1: think it's going to be harder and harder for early 271 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 1: stage founders to raise counsel over the coming six months. 272 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 1: Um uh because um there's uh less Um. Vcs are 273 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 1: gonna just be tightening their belts. You know, we're going 274 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: to see the valuations in the public market compressed the 275 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: great stage early stage. UM. I just think it's going 276 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 1: to be harder for early stage founders to raise I 277 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: think post post two thousand and eight we saw that. 278 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: I think we're going to see that again in two 279 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 1: So we found funder focuses on something called community rounds, 280 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: which of course is different from venture capital funding and 281 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: also typical crowdfunding. As I understand it, Can you explain 282 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 1: what that means. Yeah, absolutely, So we found us a 283 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: platform that's let anyone invest in startups they love UM. 284 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 1: So for eighty years, the securities laws of this country, 285 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 1: as you know, didn't allow ordinary Americans to invest in startups. 286 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: You had to be accredited to invest in early stage companies. UM. 287 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: The Jobs Act of twelve that was rolled up to 288 00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: the sec now allows everyone and not just created investors, 289 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: not just switch people to invest in startups they love UM. 290 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: And so what we're trying to do we founder UM, 291 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 1: is to popularize this concept of community around. When the 292 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 1: Jobs Out was rolled out, it was called equity crowdfunding. UM. 293 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 1: This is how you introduced this segment. We don't love 294 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: this term crowdfunding. We're trying to rebrand it as a 295 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 1: community around. You. You owe twenty five cents to the 296 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: square jar Emily fees in the word crowd funding earlier. 297 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: And so the idea with a community around is that 298 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: startup founders can raise up to five million dollars per 299 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: year from their customers from their community UM and uh, 300 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 1: you know, alongside conventional investors vcs and angels. Mercury is 301 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: a great example UM. Recently they raised a one twenty 302 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: million Series B from Andrewson and Co. Two and then 303 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 1: opened up a five million dollar allocation to let their 304 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 1: customers invest on the same terms, um and in my 305 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 1: ce EO with no factor. Mark and then has called 306 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: those two and a half thousand we founder investors his 307 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: favorite investors, you know, letting his customers invest, he thinks 308 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 1: is a good thing to do at you know, face 309 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 1: the avenue puts a little more cash in the bank 310 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: at a time when, as we've been talking about, that's 311 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,480 Speaker 1: probably not the worst thing in the world, and most importantly, 312 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: you know, generally a good thing to do for startup 313 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 1: founders to be delighting their customers by learning them investing them. Right. 314 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,879 Speaker 1: It give us an idea how much money has actually 315 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 1: been community raised, though right now it still seems to 316 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 1: be the exception, not the rule. Doesn't it have to 317 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 1: scale up dramatically if the next Uber or Facebook or 318 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: Google is going to be community funded. Yeah. Absolutely, It's 319 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:49,639 Speaker 1: still a very small percent of early stage capital right now. 320 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: So as a signage your VC an angel dollars, community 321 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 1: arounds are very very small. Um. You know, it's it's 322 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: been growing so that the job the jobs that was 323 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,360 Speaker 1: right up with the sec in twenty sixteen. In March 324 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 1: of twenty one, the SEC rolled out some improvements to 325 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 1: the regulations that increased the amount that startup finnessting raised 326 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: from a million to five million per year UM. And 327 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: since then we've seen significant growth in the sector and 328 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 1: sector overall group by about four acts in one. And 329 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 1: I think the froth the early stage VC market in 330 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: twenties twenty one was actually a break on the sector. 331 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: I think in twenty two will be countercyclical. We'll see 332 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 1: you can have me back in a year's time and 333 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 1: and see if that prediction has has been born out. 334 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: But as early stage VC pulls back in two, which 335 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:39,440 Speaker 1: we expect, I think that more and more early stage 336 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: founders will be looking to their customers, looking to the community, 337 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: looking to we fund this million investors UM to to 338 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: you know, be a buffer and enable them to raise 339 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: capital where otherwise they might be struggling. To to your point, 340 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: it's not a panacea, you know, this is still uh, 341 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 1: this is hopefully a silver silver lining on on a 342 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,200 Speaker 1: day of pretty dark clouds. UM. It's still a relatively 343 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 1: small part of UM you know, tital early stage capital formation. 344 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 1: You can only rate five million dollars per year. Um. 345 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 1: But yeah, we're seeing we're seeing positive, positive trends. Another 346 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: string though that can be pulled for sure. Johnny Price, 347 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 1: vice president of we Funder, thank you. Coming up. We 348 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: are going to Miami, going to get a check on 349 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 1: the crypto market. That is next. This is Bloomer Bitcoin 350 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: dropping below twenty dollars. What will the weekend hold as 351 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 1: crypto continues to trade. I'm joined out by Bloomberg Intelligence. 352 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 1: Is Mike mcglog with us from our Miami bureau, So 353 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: Mike talk to us about the factors at play here. 354 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 1: It seems like cryptocurrencies are so tightly correlated with what 355 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: we're seeing in equities, which is the opposite of what 356 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:03,359 Speaker 1: many in masters hope they would do. We're getting there, Emily, 357 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,159 Speaker 1: It's just gonna take a little time. But right now 358 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: it's a significant fact that you've pointed out is the 359 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,639 Speaker 1: stock markets going down. The tide is ebbing. The Fed's 360 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: jaw boning has got to reduce set ability for people 361 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 1: to buy stuff, reduce set risk those risk assets and 362 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,959 Speaker 1: bitcoining the theorem and cryptos are prime part of that. Remember, 363 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: they went up the most, they have to come down. 364 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: But the way you started this segment, I think is 365 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: the most significant thing is what's going to happen this weekend. 366 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 1: So it's five thirty on that afternoon and the East 367 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 1: coast all markets are shut, but Bitcoin is trading, and 368 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 1: that's what the markets starting to realize. This is the 369 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: world's most fluid seven global trading vehicle with price discovering 370 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 1: and no one else's liability, and that's starting to trickle 371 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:47,120 Speaker 1: inch what I'm sensing his bids blow. Bitcoin offers above 372 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 1: in the stock market. And a key fact this week 373 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 1: is bitcoins down about two percent and nazex down about 374 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: four percent. So bitcoins actually I'll perform in this week 375 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: despite the fact that it's much higher volatility. Okay, now, 376 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,159 Speaker 1: not all digital tokens are being viewed equally. Are there 377 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 1: any winners here? Well, I think bitcoin is gonna be 378 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 1: the biggest winner, along with gold and protectionant potentially long bonds. 379 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,880 Speaker 1: Gold was up about two percent this week in Bitcoin 380 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 1: is the digital version of gold. But the way I 381 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:15,159 Speaker 1: view gold now is if you're not allocating some of 382 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 1: the bigcoin and your gold investor, then you're missing out. 383 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 1: But that's the key thing to remember. But the bottom 384 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: line that's really happening in this space is the proliferation 385 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,480 Speaker 1: of crypto dollars. Now, we heard about what happened with 386 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 1: an algorithmic dour crypto dollar that broke down people call 387 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 1: the stable coins. But on coin market cap now the 388 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: top of among the top four cryptos, there's two crypto dollars. 389 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:41,440 Speaker 1: There's bitcoin, Ethereum, tether and usdcoin. And this is what 390 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 1: happened during the bear market two thousand and eighteen. The 391 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 1: only thing that was going up was the proliferation was 392 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 1: increasing market cap of dollars. And I think that's what 393 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,400 Speaker 1: we're seeing in the spaces. It's just a better way 394 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 1: to transact, that's crypto dollars. All right, Well, we'll be 395 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: watching to see just how wild this weekend is. Indeed, 396 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Mike mcglow for us in Miami and go and 397 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 1: I'll let you get started with your weekend. Thanks Mike, 398 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: Welcome back to Bloomer Technology. Emily Chain in San Francisco. 399 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: Want to get back to bloom brooks Ad Ludlow for 400 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 1: more on the SMP five hundreds losing straight again, the 401 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 1: longest one in a couple of decades exactly. So it's interesting, 402 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: like at the top of the show, we were talking 403 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: about how we ended flat on the SMP five hundred, 404 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: but there was volatility. Your guests said, perhaps I was 405 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 1: being a little bit dramatic, you know, I love drama 406 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:34,639 Speaker 1: and being a diva on a Friday about the market. 407 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 1: But over the course of a week, that's a lot 408 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,640 Speaker 1: of red on the screen. The SMP five hundred down three. 409 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: The declines in technology heavy indexes like then as that 410 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 1: one D, the n Y s Fang Plus Index, which 411 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,160 Speaker 1: is made of the megacaps, and the US listed shares 412 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:52,360 Speaker 1: of China tech companies also seeing big declines. And there's 413 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 1: really good reporting on the Bloomberg that if you have 414 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 1: a four or one K where you think you're diversified 415 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 1: because you're tracking the SP five hundred, well you're US 416 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 1: is exposed. If you strip out the five biggest megacap 417 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 1: tech stocks, the declines this week would have been lesser. 418 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,159 Speaker 1: The reality is this chart. Look on the far right 419 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 1: hand side. That block of red. The seventh consecutive weekly 420 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 1: declined for the SMP five hundred driven by tech the 421 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,959 Speaker 1: likes of Apple, the longest weekly losing streak since two 422 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,400 Speaker 1: thousand and one. That's a lot to take on board, 423 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:25,719 Speaker 1: and we started having discussions about how analogous, how similar 424 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 1: what we're seeing now is like what we saw in 425 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,040 Speaker 1: two thousand, two thousand one in the dot com bold. Now, 426 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,640 Speaker 1: full disclosure, I wasn't doing this in two thousand, two 427 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 1: thousand one. Right now, I'm a little older than you, 428 00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: but I was yet either no no comment, but I've 429 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 1: read about it. Fortunately, you have a guest who I'm 430 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 1: sure has studied the charts and the historical data. But 431 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 1: this is the question, right, are we seeing what we 432 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 1: saw the dot com bubble and what happens next? Right? Indeed, 433 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,879 Speaker 1: Ed Ludlow, thank you well. From Apple to Teslas, some 434 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 1: of the biggest names in the SMP, fueling this relentless 435 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 1: sell off that briefly pushed the broad equities benchmark into 436 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 1: bear market territory. From more, I want to bring in 437 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:16,160 Speaker 1: that guest, Eric Freeman, US Bank Wealth Management ce I. Oh, so, Eric, 438 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,680 Speaker 1: is this different than the dot com bust or not? 439 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: Emily actually was working, in fact, about a couple of 440 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 1: blocks away from where you are right now during the 441 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 1: dot com rise in San Francisco. So I would say 442 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:30,720 Speaker 1: that we do think it's a little bit different. This 443 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 1: time only. The biggest factor behind that is more of 444 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,440 Speaker 1: a macro step back with the Fed funds. Back then 445 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 1: at six and a half percent, that was a really 446 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: elevated level. Right now we think we probably peak it 447 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,440 Speaker 1: like three and a quarter three and a half for 448 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,280 Speaker 1: Fed funds. So I do think that in terms of 449 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: the selling that we saw back then, it was relentless. 450 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: It certainly feels relentless now. But we do think that 451 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 1: there again there's there's more of a calming effect that 452 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 1: should emerge, let's call it a little later this this year, 453 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,640 Speaker 1: so we'd expect a little more volatility, Emily, But again 454 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,480 Speaker 1: we don't have the same Fed funds backdrop that we 455 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 1: had back then, so a little more optimistic than I 456 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:13,119 Speaker 1: was then. So you use the word relentless, I'm wondering, 457 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 1: does that also mean you think this sell off is 458 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 1: unwarranted given the fundamentals. I mean, we did see a 459 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:24,160 Speaker 1: lot of companies, especially tech companies, miss on their results. Yeah, 460 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,520 Speaker 1: I don't think it's unwarranted. As as tough as it 461 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 1: is to to experience, Emily, I think that that when 462 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:33,560 Speaker 1: you go from Fed funds projections that the Fed has 463 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 1: has put out, there were basically nothing. You've had this 464 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 1: whole repricing that started with a two year and the 465 00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 1: three year treasury and all their as two classes have 466 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 1: to react. So ultimately our viewpoint is that the the 467 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 1: overall repricing is probably in the sixth seventh ending. We 468 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 1: think there's probably a little more left to go, especially 469 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 1: if you start to see a evidence of demand and destruction. 470 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 1: We're not seeing that quite yet, but some of the 471 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,440 Speaker 1: retail earning that we saw with the past couple of 472 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:05,440 Speaker 1: weeks indicate that there's some tough stutting heads still. So again, 473 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 1: we do think there's probably a little more downside left, 474 00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 1: but not quite the snare we saw way back in 475 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,160 Speaker 1: two thousand, two thousand and one. Well, we are calling 476 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: a bottom here, like how much worse does this get? Yeah, 477 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 1: I think that that for us, the you know, the 478 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,879 Speaker 1: downside snare is probably down under five or seven percent 479 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 1: across broad SMP, probably a little more than that for 480 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 1: NASTAC and I think at that point and the Fed 481 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 1: has a decision to make, that would be the market 482 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,159 Speaker 1: setting a very clear signal that this is a this 483 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,680 Speaker 1: is a challenging environment, and that we're starting to see 484 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: some erosion of both corporate profits as well as consumer activity. 485 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 1: So we think that that would be really a heads 486 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 1: up period where if the FED says, you know what, 487 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 1: we see it, but we still have to contain inflation, 488 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 1: that would be we think probably a trapdoor for a 489 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 1: little more downside. But again, the first test I think 490 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 1: in earnest will probably come down under five or seven 491 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,320 Speaker 1: percent from where we are right here. Where do you 492 00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 1: see the opportunities in tech? I mean there's a lot 493 00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,440 Speaker 1: of confusion. For example, you know Netflix having you know, 494 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 1: its first subscriber loss in a decade, and then Disney 495 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:16,120 Speaker 1: pulls through with surprisingly optimistic subscriber numbers. Yeah, I think 496 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 1: a couple of areas that we find attractive. One would 497 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,399 Speaker 1: be software as a service. We we think that that 498 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:26,199 Speaker 1: that installed base plus the ongoing maintenance revenue is attractive. 499 00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,200 Speaker 1: That's certainly a model that you've seen adopted from a 500 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:33,359 Speaker 1: number of different different companies. So we still think there's 501 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 1: there's an opportunity there. I would say, just on a 502 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 1: broader basis, and only if you look at the bias 503 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:43,639 Speaker 1: from CFOs and CEOs, they recognize that we're not getting 504 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 1: more productive as an economy. So we do think that 505 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,119 Speaker 1: that communications infrastructure, even though it's obviously been challenging, we 506 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,680 Speaker 1: still think that's an area that as we see more 507 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:57,239 Speaker 1: hybrid workflows continue, that's the spot that we think as 508 00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 1: some opportunity we would be moving up in cap and 509 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 1: up in quality. Again, this is more of a of 510 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: a duck and cover type of strategy in the near term, 511 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 1: but again we think software is a service as well 512 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 1: as what we're seeing with respect to broad infrastructure remain attractive. 513 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:13,399 Speaker 1: And what about on the flip side, we have a 514 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 1: guess earlier reference the losers saying it's time to get 515 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 1: out of the losers. Who do you think the losers are? Well, 516 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 1: I think there's you know, there's there's a saying that's 517 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,280 Speaker 1: probably approp to right now that it's it's too late 518 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,159 Speaker 1: to sell and it's too early to buy on on 519 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 1: some of those, uh, some of those more challenge business models. 520 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 1: So I would say that the super consumer heavy businesses, 521 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: those are the ones that would be would be more risk. 522 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:41,160 Speaker 1: So let's call it the nice to have subscription models. 523 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,920 Speaker 1: Those aren't areas that we think will be will be attractive. 524 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 1: If you look particularly at what we're seeing from a 525 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 1: macro perspective, Emily there really is some erosion in and 526 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 1: of course spending power because of inflation, but we do 527 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 1: think the wealth effect is relevant here. You talked about 528 00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 1: crypto earlier, talked about just portfolios in general. We start 529 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 1: seeing home values in your backyard of the Bay Area 530 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 1: as well as other areas that of course have been very, 531 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 1: very strong. That's the next leg that we think that 532 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 1: some of those again secondary in tertiary of subscription models 533 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,560 Speaker 1: are more more at risk. How bullish are you on crypto, 534 00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 1: because you know we're touching on this earlier. I think 535 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 1: a lot of crypto investors have been hoping to see 536 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 1: crypto break away or be immune to um, you know, 537 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 1: broader equity sell offs, but that's so far hasn't really 538 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,959 Speaker 1: been the case. Yeah, you know, it's something that if 539 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 1: you look at the correlations across broad crypto, and if 540 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 1: you look across the correlations of assets that we're supposed 541 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 1: to act differently than they did, they're really gear. They're 542 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 1: early levered. I mean, even if you look at at 543 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 1: at NASTAC, which appropriately so is thought of as a 544 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: as a really tech heavy index, the worst performing subset 545 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 1: of of NASTAC is actually the industrial components. So I 546 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 1: think what that says is that sensitivity towards the consumer 547 00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 1: is becoming more of a challenge. And if you also 548 00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 1: look at some of the issues that we're seeing right 549 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,959 Speaker 1: now across currency and currency risking, and the dollar has 550 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 1: been a one way trade higher, that's another factor that 551 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:12,240 Speaker 1: I think the correlations between dollar, correlations towards consumer, those 552 00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 1: are things that have been the other way than people 553 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:18,800 Speaker 1: expected at the start of the year. All right, Eric Friedman, 554 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 1: we will see what next week brings. Thanks for sharing 555 00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 1: your perspective here with US US Bank Wealth Management. CEE. 556 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:39,440 Speaker 1: I am it is time now for our crypto report, 557 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,600 Speaker 1: and it seems that crypto winter in full swing. For 558 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:44,680 Speaker 1: more on this, I'm joined by Coveta Guptashi is the 559 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 1: founder and general partner at Delta Blockchain Funds. So Kvita, 560 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 1: I want your take, just how long is winter gonna 561 00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 1: lask and how cold is it going to get? Like 562 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 1: how much lower is before I'm going to go? Hi, Emilee, 563 00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,280 Speaker 1: thank you so much for having me um. I think 564 00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 1: it's just the beginning of crypto winter, to be very honest, 565 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:06,440 Speaker 1: and uh, I am very surprised that people are expecting 566 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 1: that it's going to continue to over around thirty K. 567 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 1: I do expect it to go down to somewhere between 568 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 1: fourteen K, eighteen K, maybe twenty two K as a 569 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 1: stable point. But remember this is we have seen this 570 00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:21,800 Speaker 1: in the past two times. This is nothing new, right. 571 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 1: Every time it goes up to an all time high, 572 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:26,480 Speaker 1: there is a point when it comes down to and 573 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 1: find the new lower point as a base point to 574 00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 1: stand around. I still feel that we are if we 575 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,120 Speaker 1: have already entered crypto winter, we're gonna stay here for 576 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 1: at least year to year and a half, and we 577 00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 1: should we Yeah, I I don't believe that bitcoin is 578 00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 1: going to go back to forty five, fifty or sixty 579 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 1: K for another year and a half. We will see 580 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:51,360 Speaker 1: another all time high, but that will be for ethereum 581 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 1: to actually especially for either because I believe this is 582 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 1: the time and people are going to build and they're 583 00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,240 Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of technology with major adopt option. 584 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,840 Speaker 1: Look at what FTX just announced, which is going to 585 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,840 Speaker 1: bring a lot more people into the space, and that 586 00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,440 Speaker 1: adoption is going to trigger back us to another big 587 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,240 Speaker 1: high cycle. So let's just game this out for for 588 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,760 Speaker 1: for a moment, you think Bitcoin, for example, we'll stay 589 00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:17,959 Speaker 1: in the twenty dollar range for the next year, year 590 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: and a half. Potentially, Yeah, we can see some more 591 00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 1: depths and we can see some more high but I 592 00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:25,680 Speaker 1: don't think that we're going to see it going back 593 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:30,640 Speaker 1: to sixty to seventy k during the winter time anytime soon. Huh. 594 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 1: So then what does the new high become after that? 595 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 1: I mean a lot of investors are getting in just 596 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,200 Speaker 1: waiting for that. I think a lot of people have 597 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 1: been talking about bitcoin at hundred k, and I I 598 00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,520 Speaker 1: can't really predict whether it would be hundred k or not, 599 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 1: but I can definitely say it's going to find a 600 00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 1: new high, which was last time sixty four something. But 601 00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 1: as I said, every time, if you look at the 602 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 1: history and look at the data every time, if it 603 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 1: has gone back, it's not purely space culative anymore. Speculation 604 00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,680 Speaker 1: is definitely a part of it, but it's also the 605 00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 1: adoption of technology. It's also the adoption by big companies 606 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,280 Speaker 1: and institutions. Tesla holding it on the balance sheet makes 607 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,680 Speaker 1: it goes up. Twitter having uh basically tipping mechanism on 608 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:17,920 Speaker 1: Bitcoin makes it go up. And I feel like the 609 00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 1: same thing with ethereum and other technology driven tokens that 610 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 1: we're going to see the adoption making it go all 611 00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 1: time high, but I don't think it's going to happen 612 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 1: in another year, two year and a half. I'm curious 613 00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 1: what you think about what's happening at coin base, and 614 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 1: you know, the most established platform for the trading of cryptocurrency, 615 00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 1: you know, and obviously their business is, you know, somewhat 616 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:47,320 Speaker 1: divorced from you know, the actual trading of cryptocurrency. What 617 00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:48,880 Speaker 1: do you make of what do you think the fate 618 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 1: of coin basis, I mean coin bases, a centralized exchange. 619 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:58,680 Speaker 1: I don't see all the speculation about coin based going bankrupt. Honestly, 620 00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 1: I don't believe that because the technology is so strong, 621 00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 1: and I do understand that when the when it is 622 00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,520 Speaker 1: really deep, you don't see that much of trading volume 623 00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:11,200 Speaker 1: and exchange making money out of the trading volume or 624 00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,759 Speaker 1: the defiance taking, et cetera. Will not have that much 625 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,720 Speaker 1: of cash to show. So there are four thirty million losses. 626 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,719 Speaker 1: I completely understand when our companies into an expansion mode 627 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,520 Speaker 1: and suddenly crypto prize is dumb, this is what you expect. 628 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,960 Speaker 1: But will that make them disappear? I don't think so. 629 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,600 Speaker 1: I do believe that they have already announced that they're 630 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:33,600 Speaker 1: going to have a hiding freeze, They're gonna take care 631 00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:37,120 Speaker 1: of cost, etcetera. And I do see them whether the 632 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:41,439 Speaker 1: storm honestly speaking, but with different measures, and that there 633 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,239 Speaker 1: we keep hearing it is time to build that. I'd 634 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,440 Speaker 1: love to get a little more specific when it comes 635 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,920 Speaker 1: to crypto projects. What do you think makes it and 636 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 1: why what gets washed out? I think a lot of 637 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,919 Speaker 1: fluff gets washed out. As a as a pre seat, 638 00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,879 Speaker 1: seed stage, early take investor, for over five six years 639 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,239 Speaker 1: in the space, I can tell you every time there 640 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:04,800 Speaker 1: is a high anyone who thinks, oh, I have an idea, 641 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,920 Speaker 1: the idea thinks is like hundred million dollar evaluation. Now 642 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,320 Speaker 1: you're coming back to fifteen million dollar valuation with the 643 00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:15,640 Speaker 1: product or the m v P associated with it. Last 644 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 1: time we saw Defy really really getting built during the 645 00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:24,439 Speaker 1: crypto winter, and that's pushing the adoption and the money 646 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 1: coming into the space, which also had n f T 647 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:31,360 Speaker 1: associated with that before that in two thousands, sixteen and seventeen. 648 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,200 Speaker 1: The I see, oh, the smart contract on Etherium is 649 00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,120 Speaker 1: what made us come down, come up from the crypto 650 00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,759 Speaker 1: winter and height of sev hundred dollars free, and I 651 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,480 Speaker 1: think as we go into the space, I think multi 652 00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:49,320 Speaker 1: chain indexing search results, a lot of analytics platform V 653 00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,080 Speaker 1: see that's gonna really gonna build out, and maybe a 654 00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:56,360 Speaker 1: whole new, whole new infrastructure platform. I mean, people have 655 00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,880 Speaker 1: been buying n f t s from multimillion dollars. We 656 00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,200 Speaker 1: really don't have a proper infrastructure for n f t 657 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,000 Speaker 1: s right now. And I'm very excited about what's gonna 658 00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:07,680 Speaker 1: come out of this crypto winter. Curious about your thoughts 659 00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:12,440 Speaker 1: on Elon Musk potentially taking over Twitter, you know, given 660 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 1: its role in the crypto community and Elon Musks role 661 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,359 Speaker 1: in the crypto community himself, do you think decentralized social 662 00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:24,880 Speaker 1: media is actually possible with blockchain technology As of the 663 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,759 Speaker 1: current technology which I have seen in the space, I 664 00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,800 Speaker 1: don't think so. Identity has been a huge problem in 665 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:32,839 Speaker 1: the space. We still need to figure out a lot 666 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:38,080 Speaker 1: of indexing, identity, trust associated but should social media and 667 00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,040 Speaker 1: reputation system is a huge problem which were still figuring 668 00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,160 Speaker 1: it out. Um. But in the future, can there be 669 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:47,600 Speaker 1: a technology where it could be truly decentralized? Absolutely, that 670 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:51,280 Speaker 1: would be an ideal day. But No, it cannot be possible. 671 00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,800 Speaker 1: It's not possible that any technology you have seen in 672 00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:57,839 Speaker 1: the space so far. So are you calling Elon Musk's laugh? 673 00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:02,160 Speaker 1: Then I I think he's a visionary. He probably thinks 674 00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,960 Speaker 1: that over years he's gonna build. It's like when ten 675 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:06,920 Speaker 1: years back he went and said he's going to put 676 00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:10,160 Speaker 1: people on Mars. I mean, he has put a spacecraft 677 00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,120 Speaker 1: on there. There hasn't been a human being out there, 678 00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,960 Speaker 1: but hopefully the next ten to fifteen years there would be. 679 00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:19,040 Speaker 1: And I think that's what he's looking for. A decentralized 680 00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,600 Speaker 1: social media, which is a novel idea and something which 681 00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,839 Speaker 1: would be great for the tech and people and mental health. 682 00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:28,200 Speaker 1: I guess. But is it possible today in an year, 683 00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:31,520 Speaker 1: two year, three year, I don't think so. All right, 684 00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:35,200 Speaker 1: So looking forward, you know the market is still reeling 685 00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:40,560 Speaker 1: from the Terra debacle. What's next? What's next for stable coins? 686 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,279 Speaker 1: We have to make a differentiation Like Terra vo was 687 00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 1: is a programmatic stable coin. Right when the definition of 688 00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:50,399 Speaker 1: stable coin came, it is like back to some FIA 689 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,320 Speaker 1: currency and one is to one. So USDC had to 690 00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:57,040 Speaker 1: show in their audits, like how much reserves do they 691 00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:00,680 Speaker 1: really have? In dollars, cash, cash equivalent, bonds, tosties, etcetera, 692 00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,200 Speaker 1: etcetera to support it, and so did us t t 693 00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,320 Speaker 1: to a particular percentage. I think Terta is different. It 694 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:09,120 Speaker 1: has been on the programmatic side. So one thing which 695 00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:12,920 Speaker 1: we have learned though the decentralized world will always push 696 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,280 Speaker 1: away from fear. Then try to have a different version 697 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:20,240 Speaker 1: of programmatic stable coin which is pegged by its own cryptocurrency. 698 00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,319 Speaker 1: We do have a lot of issues and a lot 699 00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,560 Speaker 1: of gaps as of now, which Terta just showed. Um, 700 00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:30,279 Speaker 1: will there ever be a programmatic stable coin? I absolutely 701 00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:34,160 Speaker 1: hundred person beliefs. So would would that be in an 702 00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:37,640 Speaker 1: year or two during this cryptos winters? I don't think so, 703 00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,239 Speaker 1: because a lot of trust has been shaken and a 704 00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,560 Speaker 1: lot of people got wiped out. All right, Gupta alta 705 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,400 Speaker 1: blockchain fund founder, thanks for giving it to us straight, 706 00:38:47,080 --> 00:39:23,200 Speaker 1: appreciate it more. Sols Accomb, this is boomer. I want 707 00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:25,799 Speaker 1: to get back to the markets and bring back our 708 00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,600 Speaker 1: at ludlow one final time. So the big question is 709 00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,440 Speaker 1: does this volatility continue next week or not. There was 710 00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:33,160 Speaker 1: an investor earlier in the show who thought you were 711 00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,240 Speaker 1: being a little traumatic. Yeah, they thought it was being traumatic. 712 00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:37,239 Speaker 1: I mean, if we knew the answer to which way 713 00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,640 Speaker 1: markets would go, we'd all be very rich, right if 714 00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,880 Speaker 1: you're an investment manager or retail investor. We can do 715 00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,960 Speaker 1: is financial journalists look at the past data and what's 716 00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,040 Speaker 1: really interesting and think about the sp We almost fell 717 00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:52,120 Speaker 1: into a bear market. That's a decline from the most 718 00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,200 Speaker 1: recent high. We've seen this before on an inch day basis. 719 00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:57,480 Speaker 1: I'm going to give you the history. I'm sorry for 720 00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:03,160 Speaker 1: a Friday to thousand eleven, two thousand eighteen, the market 721 00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,640 Speaker 1: on an inch date basis, some cases when beyond as 722 00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:10,880 Speaker 1: a decline, but it never actually closed in a bear market, 723 00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,279 Speaker 1: and we never even got close to those levels in 724 00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,600 Speaker 1: the weeks that followed. So it's a psychological test for 725 00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:20,040 Speaker 1: the market, and really a conversation is what is it 726 00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,360 Speaker 1: that we're worried about? What is is it inflation? Is 727 00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:25,279 Speaker 1: it the Fed? Where do we look for some hope? Well, 728 00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:28,239 Speaker 1: and it was interesting hearing our guests speak throughout the 729 00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:31,200 Speaker 1: show that the fundamental the macro economic issues are very 730 00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:33,520 Speaker 1: different right now from what we saw in two thousand one, 731 00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:35,919 Speaker 1: for example, And we should bring it back to tech. 732 00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:39,239 Speaker 1: I mean, remember some of these companies like Apple that 733 00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,239 Speaker 1: are now feeling a lot of pain. These are like 734 00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:45,200 Speaker 1: amazing companies, strong balance sheets, you know, But there's so 735 00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,160 Speaker 1: much happening at once. When we talk about check broadly, 736 00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,040 Speaker 1: we have to remember what the story is here. The 737 00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:53,520 Speaker 1: FED is going to raise rates, and higher rates discount 738 00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:57,359 Speaker 1: the present value of future profits, making tech stocks less 739 00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:00,759 Speaker 1: attractive as an option. But at the same time, we're 740 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:04,840 Speaker 1: worried about whether the FED can fight inflation without causing recession. 741 00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,080 Speaker 1: In other words, if they raise rates too quickly and 742 00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:10,640 Speaker 1: in two bigger increments, the economy might crash. And no 743 00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:12,600 Speaker 1: one does well in a bad economy like that, not 744 00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:14,200 Speaker 1: even the likes of Apple. But if you look at 745 00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,680 Speaker 1: the companies and their fundamentals, and if you talk about 746 00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:18,279 Speaker 1: a company like Apple, which was on the brink of 747 00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:22,560 Speaker 1: bankruptcy literally in the late nineties, it's a completely different story. 748 00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,439 Speaker 1: Apple is going to keep making new products people want 749 00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:29,160 Speaker 1: to buy, and they've got a lot of cash, they 750 00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:32,799 Speaker 1: have innovation, they have scale, And then we wonder what's 751 00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,000 Speaker 1: going on in the rest of the world. We put 752 00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,920 Speaker 1: aside the FED, we put aside the inflation picture, and 753 00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:40,640 Speaker 1: we worry about supply chains, the lockdowns, in China them 754 00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,680 Speaker 1: a big problem has been We're really sorry, guys, we 755 00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:47,680 Speaker 1: missed earnings because we couldn't sell enough products. Why because 756 00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:49,560 Speaker 1: our supply chains are in and the question is how 757 00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:51,920 Speaker 1: our investors is going to interpret it? And there are 758 00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:55,360 Speaker 1: is also this Tesla Twitter Elon Musk overhang, which is 759 00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:58,920 Speaker 1: because of a completely different narrative. Yes, Tesla has supply 760 00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,959 Speaker 1: chain issues, right, what is Elon must gonna buy Twitter? 761 00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:04,960 Speaker 1: Is he going to is he gonna take Tesla? Tell 762 00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:06,480 Speaker 1: whether that or what I thought I was going to 763 00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,680 Speaker 1: get through an entire show without talking about Elon Musk. 764 00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:13,839 Speaker 1: I really thought this would be the day. There's two things, 765 00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:17,000 Speaker 1: key man risk. Elon Musk is very busy. He's the 766 00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:20,440 Speaker 1: CEO of Tesla, and the market's asking is he distracted? 767 00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:23,239 Speaker 1: That's the simple way of looking at it. But also 768 00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:26,799 Speaker 1: with Twitter, you know all of this indecision about will 769 00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:30,480 Speaker 1: the deal happened, won't it happen? Twitter didn't really suffer 770 00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:32,719 Speaker 1: like the rest of tech stocks. It hasn't seen the 771 00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:36,719 Speaker 1: declines that other tech companies have. And there's a question why, Well, 772 00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:38,919 Speaker 1: because it was subject to a takeover deal, a take 773 00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:41,319 Speaker 1: private deal. But if you factor in the cell off 774 00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,919 Speaker 1: we've seen in tech. Should Twitter be revalued and should 775 00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,520 Speaker 1: Elon must come back in at a lower price? I 776 00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,719 Speaker 1: don't know who knows Twitter's annual meeting next week, You're 777 00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,239 Speaker 1: going to be there, going to be a big moment. 778 00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,239 Speaker 1: Where are we talking about this a lot? So don't 779 00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,840 Speaker 1: forget it yet at Ludlow. Thank you. That does it 780 00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:59,560 Speaker 1: for this edition of Bloomberg Technology. Have a wonderful weekend 781 00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:02,040 Speaker 1: every one Wall Street week with my colleague David Weston 782 00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:04,239 Speaker 1: coming up next, He's going to be talking about inflation 783 00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,920 Speaker 1: and all of this. In just a moment, Monday shouted 784 00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:09,040 Speaker 1: and Oryon of Adobe