Speaker 1: Check it in Man Now down Man, Tuesday morning, November one,
Speaker 1: Beating the Book podcast megapod Live from the D. Our
Speaker 1: Home at the D, Mikey Skill, Alexander, Mike Palm next
Speaker 1: to me here at the D. By the way, if
Speaker 1: you've never been to the D in Las Vegas, it's
Speaker 1: downtown and uh, as you look at Circle, then sort
Speaker 1: of turn your vehicle and you'll be at the D.
Speaker 1: You'll and you'll be like, wait, I thought there was
Speaker 1: a certain no, it's the D. But we love our
Speaker 1: our home at the D because there's room there, the
Speaker 1: tables huge, and we have a good time here. It's
Speaker 1: perfectly built for social distancing before we knew there was
Speaker 1: going to be social exactly right, Mike Palm, by the way,
Speaker 1: the conciliary. Derek Stevens at Circuit Sports, Vice President Operations,
Speaker 1: I did a whole breakdown on your circus survival on
Speaker 1: a numbers game this morning, the whole segment of your
Speaker 1: remaining a hundred thirty four entries. We'll get into that momentarily.
Speaker 1: Todd wishing to have the other stable the show from
Speaker 1: his mom's cork Addics somewhere in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. You're doing
Speaker 1: Dodd Baby, I got it done for us and ladies
Speaker 1: and gentlemen. This is because it's Thanksgiving. We get Happy
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving everybody, by the way, Happy Thanksgiving. Because Thanksgiving a
Speaker 1: week we were not doing our normal Thursday show, so
Speaker 1: we shifted to Tuesday. UM on the heels of a
Speaker 1: Brett Musburger appearance last week. How good was that, by
Speaker 1: the way, everybody thought it was the best part of
Speaker 1: the years best part. He was so open, he was
Speaker 1: very open. Here's what's ailing the raiders lads, you know,
Speaker 1: and he just goes off on it. It was like
Speaker 1: a fireside chat. It was. It was like y'allta, it's
Speaker 1: y'all toa conference. We had it here. Uh. So there's
Speaker 1: a there's a podcast that has done in simultaneous concurrent
Speaker 1: with ours, which is what they do over it covers.
Speaker 1: So the first time we've only had two occurrences this
Speaker 1: year where we didn't on Thursday. One was a Wednesday night.
Speaker 1: We brought in Las Vegas Chris, who's on that podcast,
Speaker 1: and today we do it on Tuesday, so we bring
Speaker 1: in the host of that podcast. He also does the
Speaker 1: Simple Handicap on a daily basis. Adam Chernoff ladies and
Speaker 1: gentlemen wearing his Covers sweat shirt. How you doing man,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm doing well. It's kind of a tough act
Speaker 1: to follow when you stage it that way. So it's, um,
Speaker 1: it's like the it's like the five hitter behind the
Speaker 1: cleanup hitter going forth and it kind of that gap
Speaker 1: in the line up. So I'll try ye, yeah, except
Speaker 1: the five hitter is seventy seven and thirty eight all
Speaker 1: the season. Is that true? It's it's true. It's it's
Speaker 1: as good as it gets. But it's been going well.
Speaker 1: So is that total sides and props that everything about
Speaker 1: ninety of the hundred and fifteen bets are side in
Speaker 1: totals pre game and then there's about five thirty props
Speaker 1: so far this year? Oh my god. So so let
Speaker 1: me just ask you this, first of all, do you
Speaker 1: think that this is a sustainable thing? Um? Because what
Speaker 1: is that percentage wise? Boo? What is that? That's like
Speaker 1: close to seventy Yeah, nothing about this is sustainable. Trying
Speaker 1: not to let it fall off that badly the rest
Speaker 1: of the year, but it was, Yeah, it started off
Speaker 1: kind of a comical. Um, it's just the first four
Speaker 1: or five weeks which everything bounced right late in games
Speaker 1: and now it's just it's just trying to hang on. Really,
Speaker 1: I'd like to get a good balance every once in
Speaker 1: a while. Adam simple handicap is what you do by
Speaker 1: yourself every day. What's the one you do it covers
Speaker 1: with Las Vegas, Chris. What's that called? It's the Covers
Speaker 1: Contest countdown. So as soon as the circle lines come out,
Speaker 1: we're reacting to them. Um from a top five consensus standpoint,
Speaker 1: we try to judge who's going to make the consensus
Speaker 1: top five that they have a circle, and then we
Speaker 1: talk a little bit about survivor as well. Listen this, Mike,
Speaker 1: you have a whole cottage industry of people like Adam
Speaker 1: and me who like do segments and podcast just based
Speaker 1: around your contest. That's gotta make you feel good. It's good, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, that was That's what the purpose of the
Speaker 1: contest was. We don't make any money off. In fact,
Speaker 1: we lose one point nine million and guarantee this year,
Speaker 1: so you know, to create awareness about about our brand
Speaker 1: and that and so it's it's been okay, it's been okay, okay,
Speaker 1: So a hundred and thirty four entries left in Survivor
Speaker 1: out of four thousand eighty make I asked you this
Speaker 1: question back when we had people. I said, what are
Speaker 1: the odds that no one will go twenty? And? Oh?
Speaker 1: And I think you said it's got to be at
Speaker 1: least five to one. Yes, I'm pretty sure. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I can't remember make the number now? Yes, no, stop somebody,
Speaker 1: We'll go twenty and O're not getting there. I don't
Speaker 1: think so with these two Gauntlet three three three game windows,
Speaker 1: brutal Sunday is Bruce Sunday. Sunday is really Sunday's brutality.
Speaker 1: But here, here's the thing off your remaining one thirty
Speaker 1: four uh three people have three entries best we can tell, right,
Speaker 1: because we don't know if people use different names. Three
Speaker 1: people have three entries left, eight people have two entries?
Speaker 1: Were those lost? Y both? And so what does that mean?
Speaker 1: That means that there are that there are one hundred
Speaker 1: want to get this right? I believe one hundred and
Speaker 1: nineteen people left with entries is essentially what that comes out.
Speaker 1: Let me make sure that that that I am not
Speaker 1: misstating that. Yes, yes, so it's one hundred and that's correct,
Speaker 1: one hundred and nineteen different. The intrinsic value of each
Speaker 1: of the remaining on four is currently forty four thousand,
Speaker 1: seven hundred and seventy six dollars. So we're talking about
Speaker 1: some serious dough here. Yeah, if you had an entry
Speaker 1: left and somebody else wanted to buy in wind to
Speaker 1: buy your entry. I had a conversation with somebody about
Speaker 1: this the other day. It's it's not really hypothetical, but
Speaker 1: how much would you charge at this point? Right? I mean,
Speaker 1: what would the market bear for something? I mean, it
Speaker 1: depends on what teams you have left. Here was the
Speaker 1: context of which I answered it. Somebody with two said
Speaker 1: if I want to pay, if I want, somebody wants
Speaker 1: to buy for half, but they're guaranteed the second one,
Speaker 1: the last one. Uh, and there's some rules associated with
Speaker 1: you can't split entries until Christmas. Let's say I think you,
Speaker 1: I think you it's almost you have to pay at
Speaker 1: least fifty I think I think that's right. The value
Speaker 1: bless a little, that's fair. Yeah, Um, at least that's
Speaker 1: where it starts. So the last things about this, because
Speaker 1: I'm I was just so deep dive on of the
Speaker 1: three with the three left. One has used Buffalo and Dallas,
Speaker 1: both already heading into Thanksgiving, so you figured maybe two Chicago,
Speaker 1: one Detroit, whatever. Another trio of picks burned Buffalo still
Speaker 1: has Dallas, so you gotta figure two Dallas, maybe one Chicago.
Speaker 1: Third guy has both Buffalo and Dallas available, so maybe
Speaker 1: they pick three on three favorites. Probably the number one
Speaker 1: power ranked person is that guy or girl. But in
Speaker 1: the end, the real question, by the way of the
Speaker 1: of the people with two, only one person has used
Speaker 1: only two people have used both Buffalo and Dallas. Anyway,
Speaker 1: there's all these different scenarios, and the question I want
Speaker 1: to ask is this, because this gets back to what
Speaker 1: I was saying last name, But is I said for
Speaker 1: all year? If you have multiple entries and you're bragging
Speaker 1: about having six after week seven, just shut up. It
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. There's so few people who
Speaker 1: get to Thanksgiving, it doesn't matter till right now. Until
Speaker 1: right now now it matters. But here's the real quirk.
Speaker 1: Does your brain do this to you? Now? So all
Speaker 1: the people, that's eleven total people ended up with multiple entries,
Speaker 1: that's it, eleven ended up with multiple There were three
Speaker 1: and sixties. Some people that bought six, by the way, yes,
Speaker 1: and and eleven have two or three eleven two or
Speaker 1: three left. Those eleven people have now gotten to the
Speaker 1: promised land of where they wanted to with multiple entries.
Speaker 1: My question to Adam into both of you guys is
Speaker 1: they've waited all season for this moment. Does their brain
Speaker 1: now screw with them and say I don't want to
Speaker 1: split entries now. I want to send them all through.
Speaker 1: I want to get them all to Christmas, and they
Speaker 1: don't do the split thing. I wonder how many of
Speaker 1: the eleven would be tempted if I had Dallas to
Speaker 1: put all three on Dallas. Even with the injuries, this
Speaker 1: Raiders team is dead. Did you watch much of that
Speaker 1: game against It look like a preseason game. I mean
Speaker 1: it was just a listless performance. Yeah. Man, beyond the
Speaker 1: quarterback and tight end, there's nothing left. And and Darryl
Speaker 1: Waller finally showed up again in the in the box
Speaker 1: score this week. That was what Brent was saying. They
Speaker 1: had trouble once Scruden left you. Yeah, survivors awesome. It
Speaker 1: really is, though, it is. It's so much cooler than
Speaker 1: the millions because it's just so hard. But guys like
Speaker 1: Adam and Chris can beat the man. You know, regular
Speaker 1: human beings can do that. No, no, are you in?
Speaker 1: I am? I'm right now. I'm in the money and
Speaker 1: I've been hanging on. But like it's still eight eight
Speaker 1: eight weeks to go of maintaining this pace. It really,
Speaker 1: it's just incredible Chris, and Chris is a multiple contest.
Speaker 1: When he's in the last man stand, he still did
Speaker 1: he get by this week? Chris? He was heads up right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think it was. It was him and another guy
Speaker 1: he's I haven't asked him yet. He's texted me he
Speaker 1: said he didn't have the best weekend. So I'm I'll
Speaker 1: catch up with him the moment. Get the story on that.
Speaker 1: I wonder at what point he started hedging. He's so
Speaker 1: great at that too. That's his biggest survey balls is
Speaker 1: his hedging hedge ability. Did I did I steal your
Speaker 1: survivor thunder? Im? Sorry? Not at all? No, not at all, um,
Speaker 1: And every let me ask you this. If I jump in,
Speaker 1: what's the over run there after Sunday for remaining contest? Oh?
Speaker 1: I I asked this of Parlay this morning. He said
Speaker 1: thirty seven and a half was the total. He said
Speaker 1: something like that, I make it lower than number I
Speaker 1: went under, under thirty seven and a half. I'll go over.
Speaker 1: You go over, you'll say it's I'll say it's right
Speaker 1: around half. If there is a doomsday scenario and Thanksgiving
Speaker 1: all three underdogs win out right, let's just say you
Speaker 1: might think of it. You might You'll have like three
Speaker 1: or four. You might be done this week because those
Speaker 1: three or four then have to have a winner on Sunday.
Speaker 1: What is the what is the chop rules? Do you
Speaker 1: will you contact people with each other? Or no? If
Speaker 1: if someone of if there's four entries left and somebody's like, hey,
Speaker 1: I want to chop this, how do I get in contact?
Speaker 1: Will you facilitate it only if the person agrees to
Speaker 1: give out their information? So if I say I would
Speaker 1: like the other three, Jeff would take the other three?
Speaker 1: Do you want to share your information? Because if they don't,
Speaker 1: they're not really they don't. They don't write. And when
Speaker 1: is the deadline for Thanksgiving? It's the it's uh three pm,
Speaker 1: the day before. I believe I might be wrong, we
Speaker 1: said at five pm Pacific this morning, we might maybe
Speaker 1: maybe I might be wrong. Let's I might hold us
Speaker 1: to that. I might look at the roomy text, Jeff,
Speaker 1: let me text. All right, we'll figure that out. Christ
Speaker 1: One is worse because it's Saturday and then Sundays another week.
Speaker 1: You know what I mean. Yeah, it's the Christmas window
Speaker 1: is unbelieving. I think you have to get him in
Speaker 1: by um midnight. That's Saturday night going into Sunday for
Speaker 1: the Sunday following Christmas. By the way, somebody on Twitter
Speaker 1: today said, what if? What if somebody splits their entries
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving and then the game ends up in a tie?
Speaker 1: Could you imagine losing it? I can see the Bears
Speaker 1: and Lions time and we go to over time. The
Speaker 1: water pistol is playing, so I don't think I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna sport. Todd's new hero Andy Andy Dalton is
Speaker 1: your startup. I want to tell you a little thing
Speaker 1: heretill about last week. So I have this thing where
Speaker 1: in the NFL. You can do this in college too.
Speaker 1: It's a nice little angle. If you have a ridiculously
Speaker 1: low scoring first half a football game. For example, the
Speaker 1: Bears against the Ravens last week, six nothing at the half.
Speaker 1: The week before it was Seattle against Green game was
Speaker 1: three nothing to half, and that Seattle game for sure
Speaker 1: should have gone over at the second half. They they
Speaker 1: got this winterception in the end zone. But I always
Speaker 1: bet the over in those games because for some reason
Speaker 1: the second half go over. Maybe the adjustments the coaches make,
Speaker 1: whatever it might be. But they made the second half.
Speaker 1: They made the line twenty five and a half in
Speaker 1: the Ravens game. That's only nineteen and a half four
Speaker 1: point in the second half of the Ravens Bears game,
Speaker 1: which even in the Bears Ravens game, it wasn't like
Speaker 1: they weren't moving the ball at all. They were moving
Speaker 1: a little bit. So I took you over. Anyways, I
Speaker 1: had no chance at all until they brought in the
Speaker 1: beige water pistol and he hits the fourth at eleven
Speaker 1: bomb for the touchdown. And then the Ravens come down
Speaker 1: its course, And not only that, I were embarrassed plus
Speaker 1: three half I went over too. I'm telling you there's
Speaker 1: definitely an angle to be exploited there at halftime and
Speaker 1: the score is three nothing or six nothing, three three,
Speaker 1: just go over blindly any college, any pro game. It's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: But you just said that, you just kind of intimated
Speaker 1: how blind lucky that was. Though right in that game,
Speaker 1: I'm saying even my proof is even in a game
Speaker 1: that had no business getting over, I still still went over.
Speaker 1: That's how crazy conviction is. Real time is real. Okay, whatever,
Speaker 1: you don't have to you don't have to go with me.
Speaker 1: I'm just telling you it's it's week after week. You
Speaker 1: see it in college and pro when the score is
Speaker 1: like three nothing or three three or six nothing and
Speaker 1: they have like six points in less than the first half.
Speaker 1: Just blindly I thought it was I thought I was
Speaker 1: so smart when the line crashed because Lamar Jackson was
Speaker 1: ruled inactive and then the line crashed in Baltimore was
Speaker 1: like a one point favorite or pick him whatever it
Speaker 1: was they had, and I took Baltimore in the first
Speaker 1: half in the full game, thinking a Keem Knicks and
Speaker 1: and Khalil Macker out of this game anyway, I love
Speaker 1: to more, and I end up winning both. And it's
Speaker 1: just such blind nonsense luck right that I win both.
Speaker 1: So it's like the ultimate takeaway was I shouldn't have
Speaker 1: bet it at all, even though I ended up on
Speaker 1: the right side of that particular game. But I was
Speaker 1: talking to somebody who at Chicago. I was like, believe me.
Speaker 1: I wasn't right and you weren't wrong, which is how
Speaker 1: most of these NFL games end up, which is why
Speaker 1: your record at him is so unbelievable and so much
Speaker 1: of its late game bounces. Or it's just that's all
Speaker 1: it comes down to. There's maybe a couple of percentages
Speaker 1: one way or another based on the number you get
Speaker 1: earlier in the week or how good your timing is,
Speaker 1: but the rest of there's charges. As a perfect example,
Speaker 1: the Steelers have absolutely zero point zero chance. They're the
Speaker 1: complete wrong side the entire game, and somehow they get
Speaker 1: tell me and the score Gilly. I just did it
Speaker 1: with my friend because he there is almost zero point
Speaker 1: there a percent chance that you can cover even after
Speaker 1: the ball. But the only way it could happen is
Speaker 1: the way it happens. Yeah, and it's just that the
Speaker 1: NFL was just it despises me, despise me. But Adam,
Speaker 1: just you're being very humble. But just Todd, if you
Speaker 1: could go over our records, this will give you an
Speaker 1: idea how good seventy seven and thirty eight is, Todd,
Speaker 1: What do we do last week. Well, what since the
Speaker 1: regular season started last week, we all went to in one,
Speaker 1: so we're all two in one. No, I'm just kidding.
Speaker 1: We all did go We all did go to in
Speaker 1: one last week. And that move Gil up to a
Speaker 1: stellar fifteen and eighteen, just a half a game behind Mike,
Speaker 1: you who also went to in one. Who's fifteen seventeen
Speaker 1: and one, and I am a game and a half
Speaker 1: pack at fourteen and nineteen. On the teaser side, it
Speaker 1: is now a tie for first place as Michael Paul
Speaker 1: one last week and me and Gilly did not. It's
Speaker 1: now six and five for me and Nike, and Gil
Speaker 1: moves to five five and one. It's tight. Everywhere in
Speaker 1: this national we are we are flipping coins. It's just
Speaker 1: unbelievable what this season has been. By the way, this
Speaker 1: is us. Yeah, I'd like to this year. I'd like
Speaker 1: to make three notes. I'd like to make three notes.
Speaker 1: One Todd they're playing with a red ball and Kiev
Speaker 1: because the snow is a white on the internet, it's
Speaker 1: a red ball. Number two. Adam. Adam is our guest
Speaker 1: this week because no American could do it during it
Speaker 1: with Thanksgiving, but for him it's not Thanksgiving week three.
Speaker 1: The deadline is ten pm Pacific Wednesday night for Thanksgiving,
Speaker 1: So it's neither of what we thought ten o'clock Wednesday
Speaker 1: night Pacific or one am Thursday morning Eastern to get
Speaker 1: your survivor picks in for things, and then the normal
Speaker 1: times three pm. Okay, okay um any so we have it.
Speaker 1: We usually go we start with Thursday night games, but
Speaker 1: there's obviously three on Thanksgiving. If they're part of your
Speaker 1: best bets, say so. If they're not, just any thoughts,
Speaker 1: Adam will start with you. Any conviction or what's your
Speaker 1: most conviction on anything on Thanksgiving? Is it part of
Speaker 1: your best bets? Here? Sure, so I got one. I've
Speaker 1: already bet, but I will leave a note that is
Speaker 1: now turning into a very interesting handicapping spot in Chicago,
Speaker 1: with Matt Naggy coaching his last game for the Bears
Speaker 1: announced this morning, how much truth there is? But we know,
Speaker 1: like a coach fired the game after, especially when it's
Speaker 1: kind of toxic like Chicago, always leads to something. But
Speaker 1: I don't remember a situation where it's been like this
Speaker 1: and it's like openly announced that he's going to be out.
Speaker 1: I don't and so I don't. I don't. I don't
Speaker 1: know how to handle that from a handicapping situation, but
Speaker 1: it's um that could be interesting. But I bet the
Speaker 1: Bills at four and four and a half, and I
Speaker 1: think that this is now a spot where off a
Speaker 1: couple of bad weeks, there's now kind of growing pressure
Speaker 1: on day Ball and Alan to come up with a
Speaker 1: game plan. And on paper you look at and say,
Speaker 1: the Saints run defense should have no issues here because
Speaker 1: the Bills have no ground game whatsoever. But I think
Speaker 1: last week what Hurts did against the Saints defense and
Speaker 1: how easy he was able to run sort of opens
Speaker 1: things up for the Bills quite a bit. Alan the
Speaker 1: last time we've really seen him really good with his
Speaker 1: legs with that k C game, and I think there's
Speaker 1: kind of the same game plan emphasis here that the
Speaker 1: Bills are gonna have. So I think that opens things up.
Speaker 1: But the Saints defense all year, they've given up the
Speaker 1: seventh most explosive passes against. Like the Saints defense, you
Speaker 1: can hit the home run against it in the basque game,
Speaker 1: and I think with these three wide receivers for the
Speaker 1: Bills that just it's gonna be hard for the Saints
Speaker 1: to contain, and like on offense for the Saints, I
Speaker 1: mean this is a preseason offense with how it is
Speaker 1: right now, Like, there's not likely to be Kamara on
Speaker 1: the field, and I think the Bills defensively can can
Speaker 1: hold them if the Saints have to keep up. I
Speaker 1: think it's a tough spot, so the Bills will be popular,
Speaker 1: but I don't mind it. I'm pretty happy to take
Speaker 1: Buffalo here at four or four and a half. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the Alvin Kamara news is not trending in the right
Speaker 1: direction for the Saints, at least we don't think it is.
Speaker 1: Here on Tuesday morning, UM Bills the third of the
Speaker 1: three games on Thanksgiving? Have we uh? Have we gone
Speaker 1: overboard bearing the Bills at them? Because I lost on
Speaker 1: him a survivor when they lost the Jags, it was
Speaker 1: just a listless performance. They've looked terrible since. Um they
Speaker 1: haven't beaten anybody all year. They're now a half game
Speaker 1: out in the a f C East. If the playoffs
Speaker 1: were to start today, that actually be the seventh seed.
Speaker 1: I believe. UM no on them to miss the playoffs
Speaker 1: is four to one. Where do we stand on them?
Speaker 1: Because their schedule is not like particularly easy down. There's
Speaker 1: not particularly hard either, but the easy part, the easiest
Speaker 1: part is behind them. I still think they're fine, and
Speaker 1: I think we've seen this happen to every other team
Speaker 1: in the a f C at some point this season,
Speaker 1: Like Kansas City went on that cold streak and we're like,
Speaker 1: are they done and where do they stand? Then we
Speaker 1: saw the Tennessee Titan rattled off all those wins and
Speaker 1: now all of a sudden they look broken in their
Speaker 1: own right. Um, it just keeps happening to teams at
Speaker 1: the top of the a f C. I think Buffalo
Speaker 1: kind of have to stick to what we've seen from
Speaker 1: them at least early in the season and the promise
Speaker 1: this roster delivered. So definitely not out on Buffalo just yet.
Speaker 1: But I think it's just kind of how the AMC
Speaker 1: is playing out this year, where there's a new best
Speaker 1: team every single week. The Titans are the most fascinating
Speaker 1: of that bunch. Like I don't remember remember season where
Speaker 1: with like six games remaining, you could say about a team.
Speaker 1: They're the number one seed today as currently constituted, without
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry or Julio Jones, they are a shell of
Speaker 1: their former selves. They are really bad at football right
Speaker 1: at this moment. But if they can figure that the
Speaker 1: hardest games that are behind them, which they've won their
Speaker 1: easiest than though we could have said this about this
Speaker 1: past Sunday to noted um, they're easy games that they
Speaker 1: have the second easiest schedule moving forward, only the Eagles
Speaker 1: have an easier schedule. And so it's this weird, full
Speaker 1: core moment where it's like, if they can overcome these games,
Speaker 1: they could end up the number one seed and have
Speaker 1: the easiest path and get Henry back, or they could
Speaker 1: just crap out entirely and not even get there, Like
Speaker 1: it's amazing you can get the court about my forty
Speaker 1: one to one Pats? What about my Pats. Everyone's just
Speaker 1: sleeping on Billy. I'm just keep sleeping on Billy. I'm
Speaker 1: not as sold on them as others are. Adam, where
Speaker 1: do you stand on New England? Well, one more note
Speaker 1: about Tennessee, that's weird. The last couple of years they've
Speaker 1: been kind of that weird team that we're like, look
Speaker 1: how bad their defense is. Eventually this is going to
Speaker 1: catch up to them, and it has every year once
Speaker 1: you get into late December, in January this year. It's
Speaker 1: their defense playing well in spite of their offense. So
Speaker 1: it's kind of backwards and I feel like that matters.
Speaker 1: New England's a weird team too, because they're kind of
Speaker 1: this the trendy team in the a f C. Now
Speaker 1: they rattled off of all these wins, everyone bumps them up.
Speaker 1: Mac Jones looks really good, the defense looks good. But
Speaker 1: there's Kevin Cole, who I follow from PF who's awesome.
Speaker 1: He equates it to a really hot three point shooter
Speaker 1: on a run in the NBA, because if you look
Speaker 1: at mac jones numbers, he like he doesn't have huge
Speaker 1: volume for passing, but his third down stats and the
Speaker 1: success that he has on third down and has the
Speaker 1: entire season is like all time high. And so how
Speaker 1: does that look as things tighten up down the stretch
Speaker 1: in the schedule, And like we were, he's still a rookie,
Speaker 1: Like at some point, you know when you're having that
Speaker 1: much success because the Pats put him in that with
Speaker 1: how much they run on first and second down, it's like,
Speaker 1: can you really sustain that through a run? It's a
Speaker 1: really different paths tame so interesting by the way through
Speaker 1: out the statistics on the Patriots, like just like throughout
Speaker 1: all their Super Bowl years, throw out all the statistics.
Speaker 1: This is a Belichick heat, his finess, just brinding teams
Speaker 1: down with that running game at the defense. You watch,
Speaker 1: you keep laughing, but my one is looking better and better.
Speaker 1: I'm not laughing. I think I will say it's Ben
Speaker 1: MGM put out odds. Number one seed in the a
Speaker 1: f C. Titans are the short shot plus one. A
Speaker 1: lot of that has to do with their easy scatter.
Speaker 1: You can still get the Colts at nine to one
Speaker 1: to when the UNFC South. If you think this is
Speaker 1: crashes ahead for Tennessee, yeah I don't think it will,
Speaker 1: but yeah you can't. That's a that's a pretty nice sprice.
Speaker 1: I am famously I have the Titans to win it
Speaker 1: all ticket. I was like, I think, if there's a
Speaker 1: path where they end up in a great position, but
Speaker 1: obviously they sucked. Now I have the Texas. I said,
Speaker 1: you used the bills against Jacksonville because you thought they
Speaker 1: were and you you weren't going to use them later, right,
Speaker 1: And looks like you may be right. Yeah it didn't help,
Speaker 1: didn't help me, but your theory you had the right. Theory, Oh,
Speaker 1: so many theories. By the way, Adam, was that one
Speaker 1: of your best three? The Bills play on Thursday? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I like the Bills quite a bit and that spar
Speaker 1: Where would you rank that one? Two or three? Just
Speaker 1: for giggles, two to two Mike Palm writing these downs, well,
Speaker 1: Todd is Todd Official Stenograph Courts for Todd Wish. I
Speaker 1: just like to I keep tracking myself as well. Did
Speaker 1: you guys have any thoughts on the Thursday games? Dad
Speaker 1: or mikey? I I just have a thought that I'm
Speaker 1: kind of leaning towards the Bears with the beige, right.
Speaker 1: I think that that that Andy Dalton really gives them
Speaker 1: a better chance than Fields. I don't know what you
Speaker 1: guys think, but when I watch him, he looks much much.
Speaker 1: They look just much more offensive minded. Not not I'm
Speaker 1: not saying they're a great offensive tea, but maybe they
Speaker 1: moved from like a three out of ten to like
Speaker 1: a five and a half out of ten. When he's
Speaker 1: in there, five out of ten, he just looks professional. Now,
Speaker 1: Grant did he say any adult? And he's not great,
Speaker 1: but I think he moves them from a blow average
Speaker 1: to like just slightly blow average. Is that the better
Speaker 1: play for the franchise moving forward though, to play him
Speaker 1: instead of Fields? Oh no, Obviously the franchises in disarray,
Speaker 1: and obviously you gotta do what you gotta do. But
Speaker 1: I'm just saying it's it's kind of like Fitzpatrick. Remember
Speaker 1: we had that year where Fitzpatrick came in and people
Speaker 1: didn't realize it's Pat for Miami was gonna be good.
Speaker 1: Dalton is really I mean, he's not good, but he's
Speaker 1: better than Field, right, yeah, right, that's all I'm saying. Um,
Speaker 1: the naggy thing is interesting though, because you really don't
Speaker 1: know are they going to row you around? Naggie? You
Speaker 1: can't write like, how can you can't quantify such a thing.
Speaker 1: It's like are they gonna are they gonna rally round them?
Speaker 1: Are they gonna be like, well, we don't have to
Speaker 1: play today. The last time, that's why you can game,
Speaker 1: you can in game it. That's why end game is great.
Speaker 1: The last time I remember this happening, although not at
Speaker 1: this level, was when Notre Dame announced they weren't going
Speaker 1: to bring Jerry Faust back and their last game was
Speaker 1: in the Orange Bowl and Jeffy Johnson being seven, the
Speaker 1: famous game where Era what's the color guy on the
Speaker 1: game in air Procen complained about them running up the score. Well,
Speaker 1: let me ask you guys this and so like, obviously
Speaker 1: there was other circumstances at play, but I think a
Speaker 1: lot of players on the Raiders before the Bears game
Speaker 1: knew that it wasn't looking great for Grooten, And I
Speaker 1: mean he obviously did things that upset some people within
Speaker 1: the locker room, But like, is this potential Like that
Speaker 1: was a complete no show from the Raiders in that game.
Speaker 1: This all within like that category is great that you
Speaker 1: brought it up, because that's the most similar thing, right,
Speaker 1: I think. So Survivor that God, I mean, I don't
Speaker 1: that's that's such a tough game. Like I said, imagine,
Speaker 1: imagine you're in Survivor and your brain he was, and
Speaker 1: now we go to over time if Troy okay, you know, so,
Speaker 1: so it's a that's a tough one. Um, would you
Speaker 1: tease Dallas down? We don't know about Ceedee Lamb. We
Speaker 1: think Tyron Smith is back, uh and uh Maori Cooper
Speaker 1: is definitely out, but we don't know about Ceedee Lamb.
Speaker 1: That's my teaser. That's part of my There was an
Speaker 1: update on Lamb just before we came on and said
Speaker 1: he's participating in activity. Okay, does that mean you'll play?
Speaker 1: We don't know, participating in activity. All right, Well, let's
Speaker 1: start with the best bets. Let's do it. Adam, you've given,
Speaker 1: You've given your number two, but let's get your number
Speaker 1: one first. I'm glad everyone's sitting down. You gotta go Jets. Oh,
Speaker 1: the Texans can't lay to anybody in the league. I
Speaker 1: don't I don't have anyone behind them in my ratings.
Speaker 1: Last week they beat Tennessee, but they benefit from five
Speaker 1: turnover and in that game, the Texans allowed four hundred
Speaker 1: twenty yards of offense to the Titans and put up
Speaker 1: just one ninety of their own. Like Tyrod Taylor's not
Speaker 1: gad pardon me, is not making this team any better
Speaker 1: than they are. They release another running back today, so
Speaker 1: Ingram's gone, Lindsay's out. They're down to Rex burkehead and
Speaker 1: a shell of David Johnson. I just the Jets biggest
Speaker 1: issue the last five to six weeks has been their defense.
Speaker 1: They give up five hundred plus to New England, five
Speaker 1: plus the Indie five of the Bills. They can't stop anyone,
Speaker 1: but does Houston have anyone that can threaten them downfield?
Speaker 1: I think it's just a big step down in class
Speaker 1: for Jets and the opponents they face. If they hold
Speaker 1: Houston points, I think the Jets can get over against
Speaker 1: this bad Texans defense. The Jets have decent weapons and
Speaker 1: probably Wilson at quarterback, which I think is decent, but
Speaker 1: um decent relative to Flacco. I should clarify, But I mean,
Speaker 1: you gotta bet the Jets here. I don't know how
Speaker 1: how you can have it. Texan's rated higher. To your point,
Speaker 1: Houston will get in that win over Tennessee. Fifteen total
Speaker 1: first downs, as you said, a hundred ninety total yards,
Speaker 1: only a hundred and seven of which were passing yards.
Speaker 1: But it's the plus five in turnovers. You go plus
Speaker 1: five in turnovers. You know the Tennessee had five, they
Speaker 1: had none. You're probably gonna win every single football game.
Speaker 1: And yet the Titans had the ball with six twenty
Speaker 1: left after Cully decided to punt up nineteen to thirteen
Speaker 1: fourth and inches from his own thirty four. So the
Speaker 1: Titans had the ball with the chance to go ahead,
Speaker 1: and then Ryan Tannehill threw the third of his four
Speaker 1: picks and then another interceptions. He threw three fourth quarter picks.
Speaker 1: I bet Houston and it's two oh five. Early in
Speaker 1: the third quarter when they were up thirteen and nothing
Speaker 1: with the ball, and and E, who was hoping they
Speaker 1: would Tennessee would lose for the Survivor impact of it,
Speaker 1: said to me, you're they're not losing this game. There's
Speaker 1: no way Houston's winning this game. And I texted him back,
Speaker 1: I said, I have Culli, Taylor and Fairburn. How could
Speaker 1: I lose this game? Had like you know, I had,
Speaker 1: and I had Tennessee plus nine, and I thought, I'm
Speaker 1: in now that they're down six, and then they give
Speaker 1: up another interception in the field, goes. I pushed, but
Speaker 1: it was like, oh, by the way, you tell your Freddie,
Speaker 1: if you buy back into Survivor, you're not winning. You
Speaker 1: don't win Survivor. That like, just just shut up about that.
Speaker 1: If he buys back in and he acts like he's
Speaker 1: you know, he's like from the beginning, it survives there
Speaker 1: like a secondary I'm still alive. He found somebody that
Speaker 1: had multiple entries at that had one left that wanted
Speaker 1: to get out of you know, possibly losing the whole
Speaker 1: three thousand if they did it, win and let him
Speaker 1: buy in a half steak in it to cover the
Speaker 1: guy's outlet. That's fine, that's wonderful. Just don't act like
Speaker 1: you're guess it's just ridiculous. It's like, yeah, great, awesome, Sparris.
Speaker 1: There's a good move for him because he's gonna be
Speaker 1: betting way more than that on these games for what
Speaker 1: he's investing, and he's got all that, you know, the
Speaker 1: joy of it. Maybe you win. Just don't act like
Speaker 1: you want survivor. I mean that is it's only a
Speaker 1: phaghazy if you claim, if you claim, I don't know, Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's Oh he's siphtict. I moved on from Brent to
Speaker 1: eat that Brent. By the way, that went well with
Speaker 1: brent On on last week when when Mike didn't actually
Speaker 1: go crazy with him last year, I Mike toned it
Speaker 1: down from one thousand percent sycophantic down to Lake seven.
Speaker 1: It was fantastic. Could you do the invitation of Mike
Speaker 1: last year with bread? Could you do that? Oh? Yes, well,
Speaker 1: brand remember that one time when you went to Starbucks
Speaker 1: and you got the coffee and I never saw someone
Speaker 1: ordered coffee that well. It was just it's incredible. You
Speaker 1: ordered We're able to coffee. I've never seen anything like that.
Speaker 1: I've seen full storage order coffee cost You can Jimmy
Speaker 1: the Great order coffee and orders them long. You're the best.
Speaker 1: And by the way that I ever sell you out
Speaker 1: great because it's all because we're losing your mic on that.
Speaker 1: All right, So Buffalo and the Jets are Adams one
Speaker 1: in two. No excuse me, Jets and Buffalo one in two. Um,
Speaker 1: we have an alarm here at the day? Is that
Speaker 1: we're here in the background. Yeah, okay, we're here. It's
Speaker 1: the it's the alarm. Were thirty minutes in and we
Speaker 1: haven't gotten a big from from any of the three
Speaker 1: of us. Okay, that's the alarm. Okay, Mikey, you're number one.
Speaker 1: You know. I'm gonna do this just so Todd can
Speaker 1: sing his song. I like the Miami Dolphins this week,
Speaker 1: Go Todd, I haven't. I have not sung the song
Speaker 1: in the number of but I'll give it to you
Speaker 1: right now. Dolphins. Maybe there's a resurgeons. They beat the
Speaker 1: New York Jets and and as he couldn't even do it.
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphin and my depos taking them. So let's groot
Speaker 1: the hell out of the other team. Let's get sorry.
Speaker 1: I I don't think Carolina should be favored on the
Speaker 1: road here, especially in the midst of this Cam Newton experience.
Speaker 1: I mean, yes, he was limited and he'd only been there,
Speaker 1: you know, two weeks and what he knows out of
Speaker 1: the playbook, but he was very limited in New England
Speaker 1: and that he'd been there a year and didn't know
Speaker 1: that much out of the playbook coming in as well.
Speaker 1: I think this Dolphense defense is the top eight defense
Speaker 1: in the league. Maybe I'm I'm I'm undergrading, but I
Speaker 1: think this is a very good defense. Brian Flores didn't
Speaker 1: stop being a good coach this year just because they
Speaker 1: had such poor quarterback playing Jacoby Brissette. This is really
Speaker 1: really denigrated from what he was in in in in Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: I think they are a decent offense. I mean, obviously
Speaker 1: two is not going to stretch the field that far,
Speaker 1: but you see you can move the ball with a
Speaker 1: short passing game and running the ball against the Panthers.
Speaker 1: As as Washington. Did you know, I thought Washington was
Speaker 1: actually dominant in that game. Uh, and the score was
Speaker 1: closer than the game really was. I think Miami, this
Speaker 1: game should be at worse to pick. So I'll take
Speaker 1: points at home Miami from one in seven to four
Speaker 1: and seven. And Kim Newton Warren Sharp used to say
Speaker 1: this about Cam new so right, the greatest front runner
Speaker 1: there ever was. Man. When things are going well, he's
Speaker 1: race sprit into midfield, playing the flag whatever he's doing.
Speaker 1: But as soon as they fall behind, Oh, Cam, you're
Speaker 1: very quiet. All of a sudden, he's a backup order
Speaker 1: back and he's running to the middle of the field
Speaker 1: and putting the ball. I mean, come on, seriously, you
Speaker 1: have less self awareness. I mean, come on, it's a
Speaker 1: little ridiculous. And by the way, p J. Walker is better, Well,
Speaker 1: he's easy. But I think Mike said it right, Like
Speaker 1: he didn't do anything last year in New England. The
Speaker 1: pass didn't won him. And at some point this year
Speaker 1: the Panthers won at Sam Donald more than they wanted.
Speaker 1: Cam Newton and like stuck with that for half the
Speaker 1: season and then they got a little bit desperate because
Speaker 1: everyone was hurt. And so it's like his energy is
Speaker 1: disguising this lack of play on field for sure. I
Speaker 1: want to ask you something. Matt Naggie, by the way,
Speaker 1: denying the reports he is saying that is not accurate. Well,
Speaker 1: the report of his imminent mind. He gets fired on Friday.
Speaker 1: It looks a little bit foolish. Where do you think
Speaker 1: Matt Rule is coaching next year? Do you think he sticks?
Speaker 1: I do too. I think it's just too attractive of
Speaker 1: a job. Matt Rule does not appear to be wrong
Speaker 1: for the NFL. That's so that's the word that he
Speaker 1: doesn't love it. So that's my guess. Um. Remember when
Speaker 1: he came in and they're all the videos of how
Speaker 1: positive everything was in the locker room, and it was
Speaker 1: this big deal and he just never really heard anything
Speaker 1: about it. Since it's it's story kind of went away. Todd, Todd,
Speaker 1: your number one pick is DoD I'm gonna go back
Speaker 1: to the well with what brung me last week. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna pounding away on these jackson Will Jacks unders because
Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars cannot score the football. I mean, it
Speaker 1: is just it is ridiculous on offense with the Jaguars,
Speaker 1: and how do you get the forty six point unless
Speaker 1: Atlanta is gonna score a billions? Who knows what Mattie
Speaker 1: gives you. I'm going under forty six in that game.
Speaker 1: I went under with them at last week against the Niners.
Speaker 1: They couldn't score. They give him a twelve minute drive
Speaker 1: in the first quarter. Um, I just if you look
Speaker 1: at the Jaguars, how do they get the seventeen points
Speaker 1: or even twenty points? They can't score? So I'm going
Speaker 1: under forty six. I mean, it's an NFL board. It's
Speaker 1: very difficult to find good bets your pre game. But
Speaker 1: I'll take under jack. I love it. Um Todd and
Speaker 1: Adams number one bets are on the Jets Houston game,
Speaker 1: in the Atlanta Jacksonville game, barn Burners that time of year.
Speaker 1: It's that time of year. You know. They all cash
Speaker 1: the same way. Though. That's what I say about my
Speaker 1: tennis place. It seems to give a dale, but they
Speaker 1: cast the same way. Um. You know, do you find
Speaker 1: you've done when you look at it? Much better? In
Speaker 1: the women's side, No, it's it's even, okay, pretty even
Speaker 1: all rights. Because I had the snow game on and
Speaker 1: now it's fun. It's it's one nothing thirtieth minute and
Speaker 1: now you're the goaltender for Buyron just tried to play
Speaker 1: a ball and completely whipped on it, but it hit
Speaker 1: the post and went out. So you're lucky because my
Speaker 1: feed went away thirty first minute want nothing Byron. You
Speaker 1: know it works great on podcast talking about a live
Speaker 1: soccer game and the people love it. People love to
Speaker 1: talk about weather. I love soccer. Total sweats are the
Speaker 1: best kind of Do you remember that time you made
Speaker 1: it snow and fill it out your No one could
Speaker 1: make it snow the way you do. My number one
Speaker 1: bet is the Washington football team. Oh so, talk about
Speaker 1: another great game, right Seattle, Washington. It's Monday night. It
Speaker 1: should be noted the three and seven Seahawks the worst
Speaker 1: records in two thousand nine against Washington, who if they
Speaker 1: win this football game, legitimately in the hunt in the
Speaker 1: National and the Redskins are in the football team are
Speaker 1: still alive. I said this last week before the games.
Speaker 1: If Washington wins, there listen, Uh, Seattle could not look anywhere.
Speaker 1: And we all love Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson two games
Speaker 1: back from injury. Uh does not look like the Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson we remember. Zero touchdowns in two games back from injury. UM.
Speaker 1: And then Pete Carroll has this whole thing where he
Speaker 1: just he just like, we are going to run the
Speaker 1: football if it's the last thing on earth to night
Speaker 1: do kind of thing. And then there's Washington talking about
Speaker 1: that Carolina game. Uh, Taylor Heinekey biggest play of the
Speaker 1: game again was the fourth and three at the Carolina
Speaker 1: forty seven twenty three left in the fourth quarter, game
Speaker 1: tied at one. Had just uh they just had a
Speaker 1: third and twenty one. He scrambles out to the left,
Speaker 1: he's flushed out and last minute makes that play. Debates.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying Heinek is the greatest quarterback on our it,
Speaker 1: but right now he may be the better of the
Speaker 1: two quarterbacks. I know that's crazy talk. Uh, But I
Speaker 1: also said this. With the absence of Chase Young on
Speaker 1: defense for Washington, as much as I love Chase Young,
Speaker 1: as much as I hate seeing him hurt, I actually
Speaker 1: think that makes that defense more disciplined. They certainly looked
Speaker 1: that way against Cam Newton. Maybe it's because Cam Newton
Speaker 1: is not that great. UM, and so I think the
Speaker 1: Washington football team, who had no home field advantage whatsoever.
Speaker 1: Let me just note that for this Monday night game.
Speaker 1: Despite that, when we did guessing lines on Monday morning
Speaker 1: with Chrissy, I guess that Washington would be a two
Speaker 1: and a half. Excuse me, I guess the three point favorite.
Speaker 1: He says to me goes Seattle opened as a three
Speaker 1: point favor. I was like, you gotta be kidding me.
Speaker 1: And apparently it's been bet to about a pick him.
Speaker 1: Now what is it right now? I'm not sure that
Speaker 1: was the most ridiculous over So I actually like Washington
Speaker 1: in this situation. I don't know that had bet him
Speaker 1: many times this year, um, but I bet him last
Speaker 1: week to success, and I'm betting him here again. Where
Speaker 1: will Pete Carroll beating? Well? He maybe he can go
Speaker 1: to one of these programs and cheating when it title
Speaker 1: shouldn't he want to be done? How old is that guy?
Speaker 1: I don't know, he's almost seventy. I think, yeah, it's
Speaker 1: he's getting up there, getting up there. So Washington my
Speaker 1: first pick, that's my second one? Is it? Yeah? You
Speaker 1: like it as I like it as well? Okay, same
Speaker 1: reasons not putting you down. Also one I'm gonna ask
Speaker 1: you this, Yeah, but minus one is Terry McLaurin a
Speaker 1: top five wide receiver in the NFL. Gread he's unstoppable.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know if he's top five,
Speaker 1: but top ten for sure. You can make an argument
Speaker 1: for him for m v P this year. In my mind,
Speaker 1: there's no clear MVP in this league. Who's the m
Speaker 1: v P in this league? Kirk Counsen's Kirk Counsen says
Speaker 1: an argument, he's of the Philip Rivers Award. Give him
Speaker 1: the Philip Rivers Award. We have to we have to
Speaker 1: also distinguish people who were talking about m v P.
Speaker 1: You have to distinguish with the m v P and
Speaker 1: Offensive Player of the Year. M v P has given
Speaker 1: almost exclusively to quarterbacks. Offensive Player of the Year historically
Speaker 1: has been given the quarterbacks and running backs historically. So
Speaker 1: like the Jonathan Taylor's of the world will win Offensive
Speaker 1: Player of the Year, but they're unlikely to. So that's
Speaker 1: a whole sort of zamilies if you go by history.
Speaker 1: Now maybe that changes in any given week, but I
Speaker 1: had I watched football last Sunday, not two days ago,
Speaker 1: but nine days ago with Aaron Shots, the creator Football
Speaker 1: Outsiders at the Cosmo, and he says a lot of
Speaker 1: interesting things in a three hour period. You know what
Speaker 1: I did not know? He is a voter for m
Speaker 1: v P. So when we talk about the Heisman, there's
Speaker 1: like nine hundred plus Heisman is a voter. Not for
Speaker 1: the Heisman, No, but I'm saying for yeah really yeah.
Speaker 1: So so there's nine hundred plus voters for Heisman. Do
Speaker 1: you know how many voters vote on m v P
Speaker 1: in the NFL any idea? Uh, fifty? Exactly. You were wrong,
Speaker 1: You're wrong. I'm sorry you lost your So so when
Speaker 1: we throw around that stat we're like, oh, Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: has never got an m v P vot because there's
Speaker 1: very few votes. There's only fifty and they only count
Speaker 1: the first place votes. So that's why. So when I
Speaker 1: made a bet earlier this year on Justin Herbert to
Speaker 1: win m v P, I wish I had not like
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert, right, but think about it, you
Speaker 1: have to be first on the fifty people's ballots, and like,
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert doesn't sound like a number one guy. He
Speaker 1: sounds like people would have him sprinkled at two and
Speaker 1: three all over the place. So I like that Justin Herbert,
Speaker 1: he's pretty good. He is pretty good, but is he
Speaker 1: gonna win M v P? I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 1: Let me throw one from left field out of you here.
Speaker 1: And like you said, Gil, with the quarterbacks and running backs,
Speaker 1: it's hard to get around that. But I would argue
Speaker 1: that this year to date we've had less of a
Speaker 1: standout quarterback than we've had in any of the last
Speaker 1: five to ten seasons. Like there's just nobody out there.
Speaker 1: Brady has been good. But if the Rams end up
Speaker 1: winning thirteen games above thirteen games and maybe they're at
Speaker 1: the top of the NFC and Cup breaks all of
Speaker 1: the Jerry Rice records, we've seen Stafford, who would usually
Speaker 1: be the benefactor of that performance. There's a QB and
Speaker 1: a wide receiver. They're connected. But Staffords looked horrendous in
Speaker 1: their two primetime spots, and I think everybody sort of
Speaker 1: took note of that in those two ugly losses. Cup
Speaker 1: last week was as high as five hundred to one.
Speaker 1: Now he's about a hundred or two hundred to one.
Speaker 1: If he breaks all of Jerry Rice's record and the
Speaker 1: Rams of that stand up team in the NFC and
Speaker 1: the QB play, there's not that clear front runner. I
Speaker 1: think it has a chance. It's an interesting it's an
Speaker 1: interesting thing at him because I actually talked about this
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago in a Numbers game, which is so,
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry last year gained over two thousand yards rushing,
Speaker 1: and so if this were which I believe was the
Speaker 1: first two thousand yard rushing season since Eric Dickerson and O. J. Simpson,
Speaker 1: I might be wrong about that, maybe maybe somebody else
Speaker 1: did it, but if this were nineteen and he did that,
Speaker 1: it would be like, oh my god, Derrick Derrick Henry
Speaker 1: gained two thousand yards last year. He did it, and
Speaker 1: he didn't even sniff the m v P. Right, So
Speaker 1: I'm wondering. I'm wondering if the same sort of evolutionary
Speaker 1: logic applies against Cooper Cup, which is that's great that
Speaker 1: he broke those records, but those records don't mean as
Speaker 1: much to us now as they used to. They definitely don't.
Speaker 1: And I think that's that's the trouble here, is it's
Speaker 1: so narrow when you look at who's won it. But
Speaker 1: I last year Rogers from a quarterback perspective, was like,
Speaker 1: stand out that there's no way anything was ever going
Speaker 1: to go around him, So I think that overshadowed it.
Speaker 1: Like if Brady slows down a little bit, Like you
Speaker 1: look at the qv play this year, I think it's
Speaker 1: a massive step down from like having a front runner
Speaker 1: compared to last year. So that might help. But either way,
Speaker 1: it's going to be very difficult to get those votes.
Speaker 1: But your your point about the fact that it's there's
Speaker 1: no quarterback standing out, that was a great one, right.
Speaker 1: We were we were talking on a on guessing lines
Speaker 1: yesterday about because I had I was going through all
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks that won games, you know, with less than
Speaker 1: two hundred yards passes. So Whence won it with a
Speaker 1: hundred six obviously, Had Taylor Hurts won their game with
Speaker 1: a hundred forty seven yards passing. Obviously he runs a lot.
Speaker 1: Uh to Rod Taylor won their game with a hundred
Speaker 1: seven yards passing. Obviously the plus five in turnovers. Garoppolo
Speaker 1: won the Niners game with a hundred and seventy six yards.
Speaker 1: I believe it was passing. Mayfield won the Browns game
Speaker 1: with a hundred seventy six yards. So there's all the
Speaker 1: reasons why that happened, right, The Niners had that twenty
Speaker 1: played drive. The Jaguars had run a grand total of
Speaker 1: four plays by the eight thirty nine mark of the
Speaker 1: second quarters. So the reasons why this happened. But I
Speaker 1: threw that out to Christian said, doesn't seem weird this
Speaker 1: year that all these games are being won by quarterbacks
Speaker 1: with these lame stats? And he said Stafford. Stafford is
Speaker 1: number one in total QBR this year, but the number
Speaker 1: he has in total QBR at this time last year
Speaker 1: would be twelve, which is unbelievable. That's that's incredible. Yeah, twelve.
Speaker 1: So it's just like the whole I don't know, fin
Speaker 1: Like I always, I have this theory. I can't prove
Speaker 1: it that. It's like the adding the seventeenth game has
Speaker 1: somehow cosmically affected everything in the NFL. But what do
Speaker 1: I know? Well, let me ask you this, when's the
Speaker 1: last time you've seen this many starters sit in fourth
Speaker 1: quarters of games mid season? Right? Like I've I've seen
Speaker 1: four or five teams bench guys mid early fourth quarter
Speaker 1: the last to three weeks. Like it's becoming a real thing,
Speaker 1: that's happening. The Giants just fired Jason Garrett just fired,
Speaker 1: just fired coach Jason Garrett after that debacle last night.
Speaker 1: Is Judge gun as well? No, just saying that the
Speaker 1: Giants have fired offensive ward near Jason Garrett. Joe Judge, No,
Speaker 1: no word on him. That's from Tom Pella Sero at
Speaker 1: NFL Network. By the way, one Judge dodges another bullet.
Speaker 1: Judge jog dodges pointing at Ammy Managesh. Naggy, by the way,
Speaker 1: was plus seven fifty ish first coach to be fired
Speaker 1: preseason Naggie. Joe Judge making making flirtation with it right now? Um,
Speaker 1: number So that was your number two, Todd, your number two.
Speaker 1: It's funny that you just said that because I I
Speaker 1: have I was gonna go with who do you have? Mike?
Speaker 1: You what's the line on the Eagles Giants game? You
Speaker 1: know what's the line of the Eagles Giants? I would
Speaker 1: tell you three and a half, Todd three. You're not
Speaker 1: going to accept it. Three and a half. I do
Speaker 1: want that because I want the New York Giants, the
Speaker 1: n WYDE Giants. I'm gonna take him if I know,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna hold my nose and I'm just gonna take them.
Speaker 1: I know they look to rent this last week, but
Speaker 1: they have had games where at home they show up,
Speaker 1: they played defense, and the Eagles are coming in on
Speaker 1: all this. Jalen Hurd is the m d P, the
Speaker 1: greatest quarterback in the story of Oklahoma and Philadelphia Athletics. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, all this amazing emotion about how great the
Speaker 1: Eagles are, all this amazing emotion about how bad the
Speaker 1: Giants are. If I know anything about the NFL, You're
Speaker 1: never as bad as you look the week you look bad,
Speaker 1: and you're never just to look the week you look good.
Speaker 1: Give me the Giants to hang under that book Bust
Speaker 1: three and a half, and now I get the bonus
Speaker 1: of the platfor is out as offensive coordinator. The better
Speaker 1: give me the Giants three todd with the Giants. God,
Speaker 1: is this the poop poo platter of picks? If you
Speaker 1: like the Giants, wait because the Eagles will move a
Speaker 1: point and a half to three points. But on Sunday,
Speaker 1: single week, Adam, let me ask you a question, because
Speaker 1: obviously that's been like the theme throughout the year, where
Speaker 1: the sharps love the Eagles, the wise guys love the Eagles,
Speaker 1: all these betting groups love the Eagles. Have you gotten
Speaker 1: to the bottom of what it is about them. They
Speaker 1: like I wish I knew. It's like, I think we're
Speaker 1: seeing some of it in the last three to four
Speaker 1: weeks with that offensive shift and now they've switched up
Speaker 1: their play calling. But it's like you guys said, every
Speaker 1: single week they're getting absolute smashed. And the other team
Speaker 1: that was getting that treatment was the Saints, and they
Speaker 1: played each other last week and the Saints were decide
Speaker 1: that took money or the Eagles took money against the
Speaker 1: Saints there, so that kind of settled that debate. So
Speaker 1: it's like every week it's happening. But just like since
Speaker 1: Week eight, their number one offensively and the way they
Speaker 1: were able to run the football, it's pretty overwhelming for
Speaker 1: some of these defenses that they faced. Wonder how long
Speaker 1: one you be in one receiver basically hurts and Smith
Speaker 1: and the passing game can continue on. Four straight games
Speaker 1: were a hundred with a hundred seventy plus rushing yards
Speaker 1: for the Eagles. They won forty nine, but it was
Speaker 1: thirty three to seven after three. Yeah, you're gonna say,
Speaker 1: they bet. They bet Philadelphia like they have tomorrow's newspaper
Speaker 1: every single week and it's sharps And now the public
Speaker 1: and this week because of the Kamara and all the
Speaker 1: the COVID news, But they love this team it and
Speaker 1: maybe they're getting better maybe. I mean Michael Lombardi said
Speaker 1: it's like the Oklahoma offense, but now this week he
Speaker 1: said it's like prepared and for Army is. None of
Speaker 1: these teams are used to playing against this, this type
Speaker 1: of an offense, and so it's a it's a one
Speaker 1: off for them, and that's why they're having success to
Speaker 1: an extent. People love Baltimore to the last two years
Speaker 1: and kind of a similar sort of makeup too. It's
Speaker 1: not as strong this year, but it's kind of along
Speaker 1: that same theme, where like you said, Mike could just
Speaker 1: have to prepare for what is the Tennessee New England
Speaker 1: line consensus six and a half? Now, ye at six
Speaker 1: and a half, Okay, I'm gonna have to take Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Um I listen. I don't like him either right now.
Speaker 1: I had the Texans. They had the Texans last week.
Speaker 1: That one got home quite easily. They went out right.
Speaker 1: Didn't think they went out right. But the ten points
Speaker 1: is way too many. I actually think the pet who
Speaker 1: said that was going to be the biggest uh dog
Speaker 1: winner on the board. Who did you didn't Todd oh biggest,
Speaker 1: biggest favorite, most likely to lose out right? That was you?
Speaker 1: Um okay, I think I have to take the Tennessee
Speaker 1: Titans here because as much as I like them long term,
Speaker 1: as much as I dislike them short term, this seems
Speaker 1: to be And as much as people seem to like
Speaker 1: New England now, I'm not quite an on board with
Speaker 1: the New England bandwagon as others are. This just seems
Speaker 1: a little too much for me. I had guessed four
Speaker 1: and a half on guessing lines on Monday morning, six
Speaker 1: and a half, some little nutty. The Tennessee defense, especially
Speaker 1: that front four, is good. Um, and I just don't
Speaker 1: know if New England is that dynamic offensively to uh
Speaker 1: to get so many points that they cover a six
Speaker 1: and a half. I don't know if Tennessee wins this
Speaker 1: game but six and a half again. Last week they
Speaker 1: were minus five and turnovers Ryan Tannehill through four picks
Speaker 1: three and the fourth quarter that's unlikely to happen again. UM.
Speaker 1: I don't know what kill I agree with you At
Speaker 1: first glance, it seems like it's too many for in
Speaker 1: New England offense. But on the other side, Winland's defense
Speaker 1: is just hammering people, and now Tennessee's offense is looking that.
Speaker 1: Aren't you a little concerned that you might get another
Speaker 1: Tennessee bad offensive performance? Makes me wanted even more that
Speaker 1: you love New England so much Tennessee. I don't love him.
Speaker 1: I'm just asking you if you're concerned you don't love him,
Speaker 1: But you've said eight times about Yes, I like them overall,
Speaker 1: but I would not bet six and half. In fact,
Speaker 1: if I had to bet, i'd take Tennessee. No, I'm
Speaker 1: taking the plus six and a half. I think it's
Speaker 1: I think it's an overreaction, is what I'm getting it,
Speaker 1: And that's all I'm playing here. And again, I don't
Speaker 1: think Tennessee is very good right now, that's for sure,
Speaker 1: as much as I like them long term, So Tennessee
Speaker 1: plus six and a half is my number two. Adam,
Speaker 1: do you disagree with my forty one to one from
Speaker 1: two weeks ago with the Patriot? Do you think it's
Speaker 1: a bad betunder one? I think it's an excellent bet.
Speaker 1: But now you're backing away from it when confronted by
Speaker 1: your own love. I'm not backing away for whether they'll
Speaker 1: cover this week. Has nothing to do with my long
Speaker 1: term uh thoughts about the Patriot. I think they're pulling
Speaker 1: it together and they're definitely making the playoffs and that
Speaker 1: forty one one will be edgeable no no matter what,
Speaker 1: well he he told you, when are you starting? When
Speaker 1: will you start to answer me with Tennessee this week?
Speaker 1: Why don't you? And he'll tell you what the hedge
Speaker 1: it is because we know you have to ask him everything,
Speaker 1: including whether Brent was the best pop order at Alright,
Speaker 1: third picks because Mikey's on the deadline here, Todd second, Adam,
Speaker 1: excuse me, I couldn't believe it. Okay, go ahead, you
Speaker 1: couldn't believe it. Don't believe it, Adam number three, sir,
Speaker 1: So I'm not going to be the third man in
Speaker 1: on Washington. Although that was the way I had circled
Speaker 1: to talk about. I'm with you guys completely there. Um.
Speaker 1: I'm at six and a half because the way I
Speaker 1: look at this, it reminds me a lot of the
Speaker 1: Saints Falcons game a couple of weeks ago, where the
Speaker 1: Saints went on a bit of a run. They were
Speaker 1: beating up kind of bad teams are covering numbers where
Speaker 1: they were short favorites or a dog, and then they
Speaker 1: got up to six, six and a half, and then
Speaker 1: we looked at the offense and said, this is not
Speaker 1: really an offense that's built to hang huge numbers against
Speaker 1: decent teams. Just at the pace they move, one or
Speaker 1: two drives stall out and all of a sudden, like
Speaker 1: they're kind of playing catchup. And so at six and
Speaker 1: a half, I don't know what you make Tennessee, but
Speaker 1: like I think most people kind of have them at
Speaker 1: worst around an average team in the NFL to get
Speaker 1: to six and a half, like the Pats have to
Speaker 1: be top three basically in your ratings to get to
Speaker 1: this number. I think that's too much of a stretch
Speaker 1: both ways. I don't think Tennessee's a top ten team,
Speaker 1: but I don't think they're worse than average. And I
Speaker 1: don't think the Pats are a top five team yet,
Speaker 1: So I don't get to this number either. So I'll
Speaker 1: go Titan Adam. I love being on your side. If
Speaker 1: this doesn't work out, it's all my fault, Tennessee. I'll
Speaker 1: take the blame for it. The way the season and
Speaker 1: it's gotta turn some point Mikey, you're number three. I
Speaker 1: like the Minnesota Vikings, of course you do. I do
Speaker 1: like the Minnesotavia. When does they like the Minnesota? Well, I,
Speaker 1: you know, I think that the you know, this San
Speaker 1: Francisco team has has done a good job of running
Speaker 1: the football, but this guilt points out. I mean, Garoppolo
Speaker 1: is not throwing for two hundred yards a game. And
Speaker 1: I think when you face a team like Minnesota, you're
Speaker 1: gonna have to put up some points. I don't think
Speaker 1: you can sustain drives twelve plays, four team plays, six
Speaker 1: team plays without getting a holding, without getting some sort
Speaker 1: of a mistake, a negative play. You've got to have
Speaker 1: some explosiveness to your offense when you're gonna play the Vikings.
Speaker 1: Look this kid that didn't win the Rookie of the
Speaker 1: Year because uh, because Herbert had such a great year.
Speaker 1: This Jefferson. God is he good? Yeah? He was. He
Speaker 1: He was very very impressive against the Packers. I thought, um, incidentally,
Speaker 1: I thought the game that they won in overtime in Carolina.
Speaker 1: He had a very poor game that game, but he
Speaker 1: was very very good here against the Packers. I think
Speaker 1: the Vikings are definitely a playoff team. I think they're
Speaker 1: better than the Fortunite. This is a key game for them,
Speaker 1: the Viking. If they're going to make the NFC Wildcard here,
Speaker 1: they need to win this game in San Francisco. It
Speaker 1: really is uh and I think it's a close game
Speaker 1: and I'll take a field goal in a close game
Speaker 1: here to five. Never likes to lose by less than
Speaker 1: a field he likes to win. By his comments, whoever
Speaker 1: said Sunday Fundays Sundays aren't fun, Sundays are hard. Minnesota
Speaker 1: and San Francisco both five and five. By the way, again,
Speaker 1: Minnesota on their five and five season, Let's remember they
Speaker 1: lost on a Dalvin Cook fumble in overtime in Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: They missed the thirty seven yard field goal to lose
Speaker 1: to Arizona with no time left that would have won
Speaker 1: it for him. They lost to Cleveland by seven, They
Speaker 1: had the ball to Cleveland twenty six with no time
Speaker 1: left on the clock. They did lose to Cooper Rush.
Speaker 1: That was their worst game. Uh. They coughed up a
Speaker 1: fourteen point second half lead against Baltimore lost that. So
Speaker 1: those five losses that I just mentioned by a total
Speaker 1: of eighteen points. So they all their five losses by
Speaker 1: grand total of eighteen points. But now let's not let's
Speaker 1: not forget about some of their wins. They'd be Detroit
Speaker 1: by a miracle where they were down in the last
Speaker 1: minute because they fumbled, remember late. Then Kirk Cousins had
Speaker 1: to rally him back and Joseph hit the game away.
Speaker 1: But it wasn't a miracle. It was Detroit letting him
Speaker 1: have forty yards right down the middle where they still
Speaker 1: had two time out. True, and Joseph that Joseph along field.
Speaker 1: That was another survivor survivor for UH. And then they
Speaker 1: beat Carolina in overtime after trying desperately to lose that game,
Speaker 1: and then they win. They beat Green Bay by three
Speaker 1: after they controlled the most majority of that They go
Speaker 1: up twelve points and then Zimmer kicks an extra point
Speaker 1: to make it three. Didn't why didn't Rabel go for
Speaker 1: two when it when in that situation get nineteen it
Speaker 1: was nineteen. He gets a touchdown, and he decides to
Speaker 1: go to nineteen seven instead of nineteen eight. Again, if
Speaker 1: you can explain mathematics for me somehow and explain to
Speaker 1: me how you go from nineteen to six. It was
Speaker 1: rather voted nineteen to seven to eight. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: I understand mathematics anymore, because isn't that doesn't what is
Speaker 1: he talking about? Why? Why are he doing that? My
Speaker 1: favorite Indians, my favorite I don't understand that. The best
Speaker 1: was the which was the Urban Meyer game where they
Speaker 1: were down similarly, it was like twenty six to nothing,
Speaker 1: nothing and they got a touch on nothing but the
Speaker 1: extra point and then they on side kick. It's like
Speaker 1: one half of it right. One of those things can't
Speaker 1: be right. One of the what is the What is
Speaker 1: wrong with coaches? I mean it's it's not their their
Speaker 1: first game coaching. What is going on? They can't even
Speaker 1: figure out like basic ideas? It's not it's not that
Speaker 1: of hard. Have you seen college football coaches? Dude, That's
Speaker 1: what I'm do. You see these guys snapping the ball
Speaker 1: with twenty on the play talk with and there's two
Speaker 1: forty left in their winning game. I'm like, I'm ready
Speaker 1: to literally jump through the television said strangle the college.
Speaker 1: Can't believe what I see. College football coaches might be
Speaker 1: the most unintelligent cross section of human beings you could
Speaker 1: ever witness in a given day, at least David Shaw
Speaker 1: when he when David Shaw, with three minutes ago, kicks
Speaker 1: the extra point to go down seven kicks away deep,
Speaker 1: he fully gives up. Yes, at least he Constan Tubberville
Speaker 1: is in a Senator and he thinks the three uh
Speaker 1: three branches of government. He's very good on that stuff.
Speaker 1: He's very very never went to an American history class
Speaker 1: in his life. Apparently nobody punchs across midfield better than
Speaker 1: David Shaw. Nobody. And I don't know what he's going
Speaker 1: for it world, I don't get it. Yeah, for the
Speaker 1: first twelve years he was famous for kicking the most
Speaker 1: the number of eighteen and nineteen yard field goals and
Speaker 1: n c A football. Now he's going forth fourth and
Speaker 1: from the six. Yeah. By the way, if we're if
Speaker 1: we're to believe Brent that Notre Dame is live to
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, right, and Todd has a bet on
Speaker 1: it as well. If we're to believe that, how is
Speaker 1: Notre Dame only in eighteen and a half point favorite
Speaker 1: at Stanford. They're they're going to make the playoffs and
Speaker 1: they're only that against Stanford. Stand for it is terrible.
Speaker 1: That's part of the narrative though about Oregon's loss there,
Speaker 1: and it's a tough place to play, and all the
Speaker 1: it's all that garbage from the PAC twelve Garbena pack
Speaker 1: twelve GARBA. That doesn't mean they're like gonna make it.
Speaker 1: It's obviously well if a well listen, if Alabama loses
Speaker 1: to Georgia, Okay, Ohio State and Michigan are gonna lemonate
Speaker 1: each other, Cincinnati can get in. And if Oklahoma State
Speaker 1: doesn't run the table, there's there's Notre Dame's path. They
Speaker 1: need those three things to happen. Happen. It could happen,
Speaker 1: It could absolutely happen. I am completely rooting for Cincinnati
Speaker 1: to go undefeated. Then the committee screws them and watch
Speaker 1: people lose their minds. That's what I'm rooting for. I'm
Speaker 1: rooting for, not really because I'm rooting. I'm rooting for
Speaker 1: Alabama to win. And it's Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and
Speaker 1: they put a one loss Notre Dame team ahead to
Speaker 1: Cincinnati and their losses to Cincinnati. That will blow the
Speaker 1: whole thing up. The joy of it would be fantastic
Speaker 1: because Luke Fickle would deserve it for what he did
Speaker 1: in the bowl game. When it was raining, running hurry
Speaker 1: up inside the five yard line, and the worst travesty
Speaker 1: they were carting people off the field every other play.
Speaker 1: That was how bad the conditions were. Someone might have
Speaker 1: had a bet on that game. Todd. I'm guessing, uh, Todd,
Speaker 1: your last pick, because we've gotta get my gaut here
Speaker 1: my last pick, boy, I'm I'm gonna go with the
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers over. Uh. I just watched this Charger
Speaker 1: team and they seem to be the ultimate over machine.
Speaker 1: Their offense is unstoppable. I really love their often um,
Speaker 1: I mean they looked. They made the Steelers completed defense
Speaker 1: look very bad, but they make every team look bad. Offensively,
Speaker 1: they moved the ball against everyone. I don't see. The
Speaker 1: only team they really didn't move it against was that
Speaker 1: Ravens Camp. Other than that, they moved the ball against everybody.
Speaker 1: So I think they can score. And I think their
Speaker 1: defense is really not that special because Big Ben and
Speaker 1: the and the Insers were movement on the and the
Speaker 1: Insers are not very good at off and so I
Speaker 1: you know, I was not impressed and I haven't been.
Speaker 1: And they give up forty seven to the Browns. I
Speaker 1: believe they give up forty seven. They give up a
Speaker 1: lot of points. To me, they're just an over team
Speaker 1: and Teddy two gloves will get you a couple point
Speaker 1: at home and give me the charges. Then for Game O,
Speaker 1: my my third and last pick is I really don't
Speaker 1: have much behind this, but I don't know. I'm taking
Speaker 1: Green Bay over the Rams. What's the number there? Now?
Speaker 1: I wanted to do that, but I was scared that
Speaker 1: I have. I think it's like one. Let me just check. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a less than three. I'm taking pick. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: don't know three Bays one or a pick. You can
Speaker 1: have what you can have, give him a pick. This
Speaker 1: is one of those where I'm just like, if you
Speaker 1: can beat me Rams, tip of the cap and I'll
Speaker 1: accept it. I just don't The Rams have played two
Speaker 1: really bad games in a row. Um. Obviously that game
Speaker 1: got away from them against Tennessee, uh, and then San
Speaker 1: Francisco just man handle them. And Green Bay ain't dumb.
Speaker 1: They probably watched a lot of that and might have
Speaker 1: taken a pointer or two. But of course they have
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. So it's a different animal than the Niners.
Speaker 1: They're not gonna completely adapt to what the Niners did.
Speaker 1: But I just think Aaron Rodgers, to me, can do
Speaker 1: no wrong in this kind of situation. Say what you
Speaker 1: will about whatever happened him off the field recently, whatever
Speaker 1: you think about that, what a football player he is.
Speaker 1: But I think I think the Packers will take some
Speaker 1: notes from the Niners. I think they will go out
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald with a J. Dillon um. And I just
Speaker 1: I just feel better about the Packers in this situation.
Speaker 1: Not supposed to be bad weather, um, so that's not
Speaker 1: probably a factor in this game. But I just like
Speaker 1: the Packers better as a football team at home maybe
Speaker 1: one of the few home advantage home fieldvantages that still exists. Adam,
Speaker 1: what do you have? Do you have home field advantage?
Speaker 1: Any teams having any significant home field at this point
Speaker 1: in your numbers? Nobody greater than two? And who would
Speaker 1: that be? Green Bay's at the top at the top.
Speaker 1: But the inswers, what are the inswers in on the
Speaker 1: home field advantage? That means Pittsburgh, Adam, Pittsburgh Stars, Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: I'm looking now one point exactly on the nose. Who
Speaker 1: has who are the top three? Green Bay at two?
Speaker 1: And who's the other top? Green Bay? New England and
Speaker 1: the Saints Green Bay, New England and the Saints who
Speaker 1: has zero? Chiefs The Chiefs seem to have a pretty
Speaker 1: good Chargers have zero. So you can almost argue as
Speaker 1: negative Washington has zero. Agree on both um more zeros,
Speaker 1: Houston has zero, Detroit has zero. Boy, you're so right
Speaker 1: about so far in the Chargers. That was like Heines
Speaker 1: Field on Sunday night. It was almost flipped if you
Speaker 1: measured it. I'm sure it was North for the Steelers.
Speaker 1: And Washington has had eurow to negative home field for
Speaker 1: years now. You go those games overrun by visiting crowd too.
Speaker 1: And at one time, wasn't Washington like an incredible home
Speaker 1: up at RFK Stadium was the greatest place on Earth.
Speaker 1: I grew up in that. And then zation just fell
Speaker 1: apart right then the organization Daniel Sneyder Bottom they before that,
Speaker 1: they moved outside of the city to this antiseptic FedEx
Speaker 1: field and that was the end of that. Horrible, horrible
Speaker 1: Daniel Steinder has kidnapped the love of my life. And
Speaker 1: Jack Kent was Jack Kent Cook, the owner. Jacks owned
Speaker 1: the Lakers in Washington. Then he got rid of the
Speaker 1: Lakers and wanted to won three Super Bowls with Washington
Speaker 1: in a converted baseball stadium. That's right, the Niners and
Speaker 1: the and Washington very similar. They both won multiple super
Speaker 1: Bowls in old baseball stadiums RFK and Candlestick, and then
Speaker 1: at different times, left those horrible football structures where they
Speaker 1: won multiple super Bowls to go to the suburbs to
Speaker 1: just have an antiseptic, no home field advantage stadium. I
Speaker 1: don't know what. He just killed it. Yeah, just killed it,
Speaker 1: killed the whole thing, both of them. Um, okay, so
Speaker 1: last things then teasers favorite two legs, six point teaser
Speaker 1: of the week. I'm in a bit of a losing
Speaker 1: streak with these teasers. By the way, Dallas, Dallas could
Speaker 1: not get home, and it was they were at the
Speaker 1: twenty yard line. I was like, kick a field goal.
Speaker 1: Plays I knew something bad was gonna happen. It's like,
Speaker 1: kick it for God's sakes. That of course he throws
Speaker 1: a pick. My friend had plus nine and the in
Speaker 1: game would just similar to way you had on the thing,
Speaker 1: and he's like, okay, where getting the field goal? LEAs,
Speaker 1: why was why was McCarthy saving his time outs at
Speaker 1: the end of the first half. I didn't understand what
Speaker 1: he was doing. There prob again, thirty six seconds left,
Speaker 1: they just tackled. There's no reason. What do you do, Adam? Adam,
Speaker 1: your your favorite two legs? You give yours? Yet? Ye Okay,
Speaker 1: I go Jets up. And that's how boys down. Jets up,
Speaker 1: Cowboys down. Everybody's just wants to just dump on the
Speaker 1: Raiders for good reason. God, you go first on the
Speaker 1: teaser for the rest of us. Okay, I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with Okay, I know you're gonna make fun of me.
Speaker 1: I want to go with my Pats minus a half.
Speaker 1: I believe in this Pats team. Now, I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: betting on them to cover the six and half. I'm
Speaker 1: I agree with you. That's a lot of a lot
Speaker 1: of points. But just to win the game. You know,
Speaker 1: I got Bill Belichick. He's gonna cooke something up with
Speaker 1: a depleted Tennessee offense. Give me the Pats. All they
Speaker 1: gotta do is win the game minus a half and
Speaker 1: uh give me Miami Dolph I am do. I know
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get Miami Dolphins plus eight. I'm going Dallas
Speaker 1: in Indianapolis. That's what I have I'm there. We got
Speaker 1: cowboys coat and wait, wait, wait, let me just get
Speaker 1: colts up through the three and the seven A Ward
Speaker 1: A Stanford Wong. I gotta just check the quotes to
Speaker 1: give me the official numbers. Quotes are what's that? Yeah,
Speaker 1: John Ferguson, did you just go around the pen name?
Speaker 1: Then I did? John Ferguson suits him Stanford long, John
Speaker 1: Ferguson from California. I'm told, let's just you guys have
Speaker 1: Cowboys minus a half in Indie plus eight half. Okay,
Speaker 1: yes that is correct, half minus a half plus eight
Speaker 1: and a half. All right, Then the final two questions
Speaker 1: we end up it's ten forty seven. By the way,
Speaker 1: we got two questions the big favorites. And by the way,
Speaker 1: this is a very quick question because there's none of
Speaker 1: these this week. There's only two favorites of greater than
Speaker 1: four and a half points. It's Dallas at home versus
Speaker 1: Las Vegas on Thanksgiving in this New England hosting Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Everybody's four and a half or like, yeah, that's it? Uh,
Speaker 1: was more like the Raiders shocked the world shocked the world.
Speaker 1: Who's more likely shocked Todd, who's more likely to lose
Speaker 1: Dallas or New England, Adam, New England. Stop well, Todd says, Dallas,
Speaker 1: New England. Oh for me, it's New England. Yeah, question,
Speaker 1: obviously it is. But would you all love it if
Speaker 1: the Raiders came back from the dead and knocked off
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. So now, in a week, by the way,
Speaker 1: if all three underdogs went on Thanksgiving, there should be
Speaker 1: three or four survivor entries left. Did I say that already? Uh? Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: Now in a week where there's so many closely lined games.
Speaker 1: Last question, you live in a bizarro world. You had
Speaker 1: to bet aside on every single game, but one, one
Speaker 1: game that was more Michugun than all the others, Adam,
Speaker 1: which is the game you want no part of on
Speaker 1: the side? One game I want no part of on
Speaker 1: the side would be Cleveland Baltimore because there's way too
Speaker 1: many questions in a number that I think it's just
Speaker 1: in a messy spot. Mikey Chargers and Broncos charges the Broncos,
Speaker 1: thank you, Mike, Paul Todd Wishne. I'm with Adam. I
Speaker 1: who knows what's going on down in both God, there's
Speaker 1: like twenty five of these games you could pick from
Speaker 1: this weekend, so many of them. No, Uh, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: say Minnesota, San Francisco because Mike Zimmer is gonna make
Speaker 1: Cousins is a Hall of Famer. We all know, Happy Thanksgiving,
Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving. Um yeah, just because Mike Zimmer is gonna
Speaker 1: make sure it comes out of the last play either way.
Speaker 1: So I'll say Minnesota, San Francisco, last thing before before
Speaker 1: we go, and Mike is is running to do his
Speaker 1: show odds On co hosted by A Mall show at
Speaker 1: UH at Visa. So, Adam, I feel like because we
Speaker 1: haven't we we talked over you too much. You're the
Speaker 1: guy with the seventies seven and thirty eight record and
Speaker 1: I just want to get a sense from you. And
Speaker 1: I know you're being super modest about saying how none
Speaker 1: of this could possible be sustainable? Um. What would you
Speaker 1: say though, if you had to, if you had to
Speaker 1: pinpoint the top reason or two for your success thus far,
Speaker 1: whether it's a certain thing you look at, it's a
Speaker 1: certain metric, whatever it is, what would you say? The
Speaker 1: answer to that question is, I'm I'm very much on
Speaker 1: this subjective side of things, um, more so than I
Speaker 1: am any intense modeling. I like to sort of outsource
Speaker 1: that and get it from people who are much smarter
Speaker 1: at doing that than I am. I know that they'll
Speaker 1: always be better at that, So I used that to
Speaker 1: an extent. But I would say, like looking at last year,
Speaker 1: where I really struggled, the biggest difference between then and
Speaker 1: now is last year, I was trying to read everything
Speaker 1: like I was just give me more and more and
Speaker 1: more and more and more, and I was I was
Speaker 1: listening back to stuff I said, and I was like,
Speaker 1: what am I even talking about? And this year I've
Speaker 1: I've tried to consume a lot less but go a
Speaker 1: lot deeper on subjects and just kind of keep it
Speaker 1: more simplistic. So rather than trying to do everything, I've
Speaker 1: just kind of narrowed my focus a little bit, and
Speaker 1: I think it's led me to have a lot better
Speaker 1: ratings overall and not overreact nearly as much and sort
Speaker 1: of snap news. And so that's helped me a ton,
Speaker 1: because like last year, there were so many bets that
Speaker 1: I made that were just snap reactions to news or
Speaker 1: injuries or anything like that. This year it's been a
Speaker 1: lot more sort of calculated or anticipated bets at certain
Speaker 1: times and it's made a huge difference. That is a
Speaker 1: that is a fascinating answer because I I think there
Speaker 1: is a lot of wisdom in that and it's it's
Speaker 1: one of those things where, uh, I guess the the
Speaker 1: cliche peoples paralysis by analysis can happen sometimes. Uh Dr
Speaker 1: Bob who was a who is a modeler um that
Speaker 1: I used to work with, is like a pioneer and
Speaker 1: using uh you know models for sports betting. Oh great
Speaker 1: guy too, but even he like as he has added
Speaker 1: layers through the years, like acknowledges, it was too much
Speaker 1: like you just get too many different things. I will
Speaker 1: say that when I handicapped tennis almost in a in
Speaker 1: a weird way, less is sometimes more. You can let
Speaker 1: a lot of stuff polluted. So that's interesting that that
Speaker 1: that has been a source of your success in football.
Speaker 1: That then, and the most interesting detail you said also
Speaker 1: is that you listen to yourself from last year and
Speaker 1: you're like, what the hell am I? What the hell
Speaker 1: am I talking about? That's fascinating. Well, and part of
Speaker 1: that too was LVC himself Chris like, he's like the
Speaker 1: difference that you like how you sound this year versus
Speaker 1: how you sounded a year ago, it's like you're a
Speaker 1: completely different person. And a comment I got a lot
Speaker 1: last year of people that listen to the show, they're like,
Speaker 1: we don't understand how you're down or how you're making
Speaker 1: some of these bets because you're you're making a very
Speaker 1: clear case for a handicap and then you're going a
Speaker 1: different direction, and so it's like there's something they're like,
Speaker 1: we're listening to you and we're doing great. We don't
Speaker 1: know how you're losing money this year, Like everything you're
Speaker 1: saying is bought on, but you're just making really bad decisions.
Speaker 1: And this year, I'm it's just so much more clarity.
Speaker 1: And so he's helped me a ton of saying, like
Speaker 1: listen to what you were saying last year versus this year,
Speaker 1: and how much simpler it is, and how much easier
Speaker 1: it is to understand. There's so much more clarity. So
Speaker 1: that's been huge. Is like you did a show with
Speaker 1: Bob before March Madness, and like he to me is
Speaker 1: like the king of like that that overarching eye level
Speaker 1: angle that's so simple that when you hear it, you're like,
Speaker 1: how could I not have thought of that? Like it's
Speaker 1: just the easiest thing to understand and makes so much sense.
Speaker 1: And I got so far away from that to where
Speaker 1: it's like I love hearing stuff like that when you
Speaker 1: have him on, because every time I listen, I feel
Speaker 1: so dumb because I'm like doing all this stuff and
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. Like there's just such an easier answer
Speaker 1: to a lot of this. So that's kind of where
Speaker 1: I'm at this year, and it's made a big Adam.
Speaker 1: You probably weren't as bad as you were last year,
Speaker 1: and you're probably not as good as you are this year.
Speaker 1: That's together thing. You're probably much closer to you not
Speaker 1: as good, you know what I mean, no question about it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's in football, not as much as I want to.
Speaker 1: I used to do it a lot with tennis, and
Speaker 1: I've not done a ton of it with football. But
Speaker 1: and now that I'm kind of slowing down as I
Speaker 1: get a little older, here the in play pop market
Speaker 1: that's starting to emerge. It's lower limit, I know, but
Speaker 1: there's some really advantageous prices coming up in NFL games
Speaker 1: that are becoming intriguing. Speaking your language there, Ton, you
Speaker 1: love that absolutely. Yeah, I'm doing great on in game.
Speaker 1: I can't pick a winner of the NFL pre flop
Speaker 1: against Spread. Its just it's so so difficult this especially
Speaker 1: this year. I know we have guys that we love
Speaker 1: and respect. You're just having miserable seasons and I don't
Speaker 1: think any less of them. I'm just like, it's the NFL, man,
Speaker 1: like anybody who can destroy it like you are. Um,
Speaker 1: all the power to you, man. Congratulations on success, Adam
Speaker 1: and Uh. I don't know if we'll get another chance
Speaker 1: to have you on this year because you do your
Speaker 1: podcast at the same time we do. But if we
Speaker 1: do get that opportunity, would love to have you Uh
Speaker 1: come back like you did a couple of times last year.
Speaker 1: It's the simple handicap podcast that you do daily. Do
Speaker 1: you still do that daily? I've stopped doing it Saturday
Speaker 1: mornings because it's just it's the first year I haven't
Speaker 1: done Saturday mornings, but it's every other day. You did
Speaker 1: it seven days a week. I was thinking you did
Speaker 1: it five days a week, so now you just do
Speaker 1: it six days a week. It used to be a
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty days in a row for the first
Speaker 1: two years. So this year nobody downloaded it on Saturday
Speaker 1: because it's like a routine thing for a lot of
Speaker 1: people because it's so short that stops Saturdays. It's about
Speaker 1: a fifteen minute podcast, ten to fifteen minutes something like that,
Speaker 1: fifteen or last Yeah, okay, so that should be that
Speaker 1: everybody can incorporate that into their day. And then the
Speaker 1: one that you do at covers you are the product
Speaker 1: manager at covers uh dot com. The one you do
Speaker 1: with Las Vegas Chris is called what Again The Cover's
Speaker 1: Contest Countdowns. So it's times our youthtube channel every every Thursday,
Speaker 1: right as the lines come up, all right, uh, and
Speaker 1: Chris is we're gonna find out if he's still in
Speaker 1: the Last man Standing. Um, but he is obviously a
Speaker 1: multiple contest handicapping contest winner here in Las Vegas. So
Speaker 1: that's a must listen as well. Adam appreciate it, man.
Speaker 1: It's Adam Chernoff on Twitter. By the way, if you
Speaker 1: want to uh follow everything that Adam does. C H
Speaker 1: E R N O F F. Really appreciate you moving
Speaker 1: stuff around and making the time man. We appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Under present, love what you guys do every week. We've
Speaker 1: been listening to the show for years and years, so
Speaker 1: to be a part of it fantastic and have a
Speaker 1: very happy Thanksgiving. Thank you you too, Happy Thanksgiving, well
Speaker 1: Canadian Thanksgiving last month, but you know we as I
Speaker 1: celebrated the same as the lifelong football man. There you go,
Speaker 1: it's a big day too. There you go for Mike
Speaker 1: Palm for Todd Wishnev kil Alexander. Thank you so much
Speaker 1: for listening. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours, Good luck
Speaker 1: with all your bets. We twelve in the National Football League.
Speaker 1: Another Bagnan Batag Dogtan Bamata BigMan Bata Bo