WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 12 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.600 Check it in Man Now down Man, Tuesday morning, November one, 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:18.480 Beating the Book podcast megapod Live from the D. Our 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:22.480 Home at the D, Mikey Skill, Alexander, Mike Palm next 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:24.119 to me here at the D. By the way, if 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:26.120 you've never been to the D in Las Vegas, it's 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:29.480 downtown and uh, as you look at Circle, then sort 0:00:29.480 --> 0:00:31.160 of turn your vehicle and you'll be at the D. 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:33.600 You'll and you'll be like, wait, I thought there was 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:35.159 a certain no, it's the D. But we love our 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:37.360 our home at the D because there's room there, the 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:39.640 tables huge, and we have a good time here. It's 0:00:39.640 --> 0:00:42.320 perfectly built for social distancing before we knew there was 0:00:42.360 --> 0:00:44.640 going to be social exactly right, Mike Palm, by the way, 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:48.520 the conciliary. Derek Stevens at Circuit Sports, Vice President Operations, 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:50.880 I did a whole breakdown on your circus survival on 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.120 a numbers game this morning, the whole segment of your 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:56.480 remaining a hundred thirty four entries. We'll get into that momentarily. 0:00:56.560 --> 0:00:58.240 Todd wishing to have the other stable the show from 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:00.840 his mom's cork Addics somewhere in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. You're doing 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:08.160 Dodd Baby, I got it done for us and ladies 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:10.280 and gentlemen. This is because it's Thanksgiving. We get Happy 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:13.840 Thanksgiving everybody, by the way, Happy Thanksgiving. Because Thanksgiving a 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:16.120 week we were not doing our normal Thursday show, so 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:19.320 we shifted to Tuesday. UM on the heels of a 0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:21.720 Brett Musburger appearance last week. How good was that, by 0:01:21.720 --> 0:01:24.440 the way, everybody thought it was the best part of 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:26.080 the years best part. He was so open, he was 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:29.720 very open. Here's what's ailing the raiders lads, you know, 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:31.200 and he just goes off on it. It was like 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:34.479 a fireside chat. It was. It was like y'allta, it's 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:37.360 y'all toa conference. We had it here. Uh. So there's 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:39.880 a there's a podcast that has done in simultaneous concurrent 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:43.319 with ours, which is what they do over it covers. 0:01:43.720 --> 0:01:45.800 So the first time we've only had two occurrences this 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:47.760 year where we didn't on Thursday. One was a Wednesday night. 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:49.760 We brought in Las Vegas Chris, who's on that podcast, 0:01:50.040 --> 0:01:51.680 and today we do it on Tuesday, so we bring 0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:53.880 in the host of that podcast. He also does the 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:58.320 Simple Handicap on a daily basis. Adam Chernoff ladies and 0:01:58.320 --> 0:02:01.000 gentlemen wearing his Covers sweat shirt. How you doing man, 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:04.520 I'm I'm doing well. It's kind of a tough act 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:07.160 to follow when you stage it that way. So it's, um, 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:09.760 it's like the it's like the five hitter behind the 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:12.280 cleanup hitter going forth and it kind of that gap 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:14.520 in the line up. So I'll try ye, yeah, except 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:17.320 the five hitter is seventy seven and thirty eight all 0:02:17.400 --> 0:02:21.840 the season. Is that true? It's it's true. It's it's 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.720 as good as it gets. But it's been going well. 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:29.600 So is that total sides and props that everything about 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.440 ninety of the hundred and fifteen bets are side in 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:36.000 totals pre game and then there's about five thirty props 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:38.440 so far this year? Oh my god. So so let 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:40.360 me just ask you this, first of all, do you 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:43.840 think that this is a sustainable thing? Um? Because what 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:46.840 is that percentage wise? Boo? What is that? That's like 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:53.080 close to seventy Yeah, nothing about this is sustainable. Trying 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:55.480 not to let it fall off that badly the rest 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:58.560 of the year, but it was, Yeah, it started off 0:02:58.720 --> 0:03:01.919 kind of a comical. Um, it's just the first four 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:04.960 or five weeks which everything bounced right late in games 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:08.160 and now it's just it's just trying to hang on. Really, 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:09.799 I'd like to get a good balance every once in 0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:12.120 a while. Adam simple handicap is what you do by 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:14.120 yourself every day. What's the one you do it covers 0:03:14.120 --> 0:03:18.160 with Las Vegas, Chris. What's that called? It's the Covers 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:21.200 Contest countdown. So as soon as the circle lines come out, 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:25.040 we're reacting to them. Um from a top five consensus standpoint, 0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:27.640 we try to judge who's going to make the consensus 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:29.560 top five that they have a circle, and then we 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:31.960 talk a little bit about survivor as well. Listen this, Mike, 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.200 you have a whole cottage industry of people like Adam 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:37.000 and me who like do segments and podcast just based 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:40.320 around your contest. That's gotta make you feel good. It's good, right, 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:42.200 I mean, that was That's what the purpose of the 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:44.400 contest was. We don't make any money off. In fact, 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:47.160 we lose one point nine million and guarantee this year, 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:50.600 so you know, to create awareness about about our brand 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:54.640 and that and so it's it's been okay, it's been okay, okay, 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:58.680 So a hundred and thirty four entries left in Survivor 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:02.280 out of four thousand eighty make I asked you this 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:05.240 question back when we had people. I said, what are 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:07.640 the odds that no one will go twenty? And? Oh? 0:04:07.680 --> 0:04:08.960 And I think you said it's got to be at 0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:13.160 least five to one. Yes, I'm pretty sure. I don't know. 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:18.480 I can't remember make the number now? Yes, no, stop somebody, 0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:20.839 We'll go twenty and O're not getting there. I don't 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:26.400 think so with these two Gauntlet three three three game windows, 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:30.320 brutal Sunday is Bruce Sunday. Sunday is really Sunday's brutality. 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:32.960 But here, here's the thing off your remaining one thirty 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:37.320 four uh three people have three entries best we can tell, right, 0:04:37.320 --> 0:04:39.920 because we don't know if people use different names. Three 0:04:39.960 --> 0:04:43.559 people have three entries left, eight people have two entries? 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:49.039 Were those lost? Y both? And so what does that mean? 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:52.800 That means that there are that there are one hundred 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:55.200 want to get this right? I believe one hundred and 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:59.880 nineteen people left with entries is essentially what that comes out. 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:02.600 Let me make sure that that that I am not 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:07.720 misstating that. Yes, yes, so it's one hundred and that's correct, 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:12.120 one hundred and nineteen different. The intrinsic value of each 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:16.080 of the remaining on four is currently forty four thousand, 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:19.280 seven hundred and seventy six dollars. So we're talking about 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:23.080 some serious dough here. Yeah, if you had an entry 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:26.640 left and somebody else wanted to buy in wind to 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:29.800 buy your entry. I had a conversation with somebody about 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:32.880 this the other day. It's it's not really hypothetical, but 0:05:33.640 --> 0:05:35.920 how much would you charge at this point? Right? I mean, 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:38.240 what would the market bear for something? I mean, it 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:40.000 depends on what teams you have left. Here was the 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:42.719 context of which I answered it. Somebody with two said 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:45.840 if I want to pay, if I want, somebody wants 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:50.600 to buy for half, but they're guaranteed the second one, 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:55.000 the last one. Uh, and there's some rules associated with 0:05:55.000 --> 0:05:58.039 you can't split entries until Christmas. Let's say I think you, 0:05:58.200 --> 0:05:59.720 I think you it's almost you have to pay at 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:05.400 least fifty I think I think that's right. The value 0:06:05.440 --> 0:06:09.160 bless a little, that's fair. Yeah, Um, at least that's 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:11.520 where it starts. So the last things about this, because 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:14.480 I'm I was just so deep dive on of the 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:18.800 three with the three left. One has used Buffalo and Dallas, 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:22.240 both already heading into Thanksgiving, so you figured maybe two Chicago, 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:26.400 one Detroit, whatever. Another trio of picks burned Buffalo still 0:06:26.440 --> 0:06:28.799 has Dallas, so you gotta figure two Dallas, maybe one Chicago. 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:33.479 Third guy has both Buffalo and Dallas available, so maybe 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:37.080 they pick three on three favorites. Probably the number one 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:41.600 power ranked person is that guy or girl. But in 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:43.080 the end, the real question, by the way of the 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:45.920 of the people with two, only one person has used 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:48.040 only two people have used both Buffalo and Dallas. Anyway, 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:50.240 there's all these different scenarios, and the question I want 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:51.560 to ask is this, because this gets back to what 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:54.640 I was saying last name, But is I said for 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:56.520 all year? If you have multiple entries and you're bragging 0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:59.080 about having six after week seven, just shut up. It 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:01.640 doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. There's so few people who 0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:03.880 get to Thanksgiving, it doesn't matter till right now. Until 0:07:03.960 --> 0:07:06.919 right now now it matters. But here's the real quirk. 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:09.080 Does your brain do this to you? Now? So all 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:12.280 the people, that's eleven total people ended up with multiple entries, 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:15.560 that's it, eleven ended up with multiple There were three 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:19.720 and sixties. Some people that bought six, by the way, yes, 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:23.480 and and eleven have two or three eleven two or 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:26.880 three left. Those eleven people have now gotten to the 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:29.040 promised land of where they wanted to with multiple entries. 0:07:29.240 --> 0:07:31.520 My question to Adam into both of you guys is 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:35.400 they've waited all season for this moment. Does their brain 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:39.080 now screw with them and say I don't want to 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:41.280 split entries now. I want to send them all through. 0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:43.120 I want to get them all to Christmas, and they 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:45.240 don't do the split thing. I wonder how many of 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:47.600 the eleven would be tempted if I had Dallas to 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:50.120 put all three on Dallas. Even with the injuries, this 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:52.760 Raiders team is dead. Did you watch much of that 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:55.240 game against It look like a preseason game. I mean 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:59.920 it was just a listless performance. Yeah. Man, beyond the 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:03.360 quarterback and tight end, there's nothing left. And and Darryl 0:08:03.360 --> 0:08:05.280 Waller finally showed up again in the in the box 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:07.440 score this week. That was what Brent was saying. They 0:08:07.480 --> 0:08:14.480 had trouble once Scruden left you. Yeah, survivors awesome. It 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:16.880 really is, though, it is. It's so much cooler than 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.600 the millions because it's just so hard. But guys like 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:22.640 Adam and Chris can beat the man. You know, regular 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:24.880 human beings can do that. No, no, are you in? 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:27.880 I am? I'm right now. I'm in the money and 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:31.640 I've been hanging on. But like it's still eight eight 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:36.680 eight weeks to go of maintaining this pace. It really, 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:40.200 it's just incredible Chris, and Chris is a multiple contest. 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:41.600 When he's in the last man stand, he still did 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:44.600 he get by this week? Chris? He was heads up right, Yeah, 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:46.800 I think it was. It was him and another guy 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:50.280 he's I haven't asked him yet. He's texted me he 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:52.240 said he didn't have the best weekend. So I'm I'll 0:08:52.280 --> 0:08:54.559 catch up with him the moment. Get the story on that. 0:08:54.800 --> 0:08:58.240 I wonder at what point he started hedging. He's so 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.320 great at that too. That's his biggest survey balls is 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:03.880 his hedging hedge ability. Did I did I steal your 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:07.120 survivor thunder? Im? Sorry? Not at all? No, not at all, um, 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:10.439 And every let me ask you this. If I jump in, 0:09:10.480 --> 0:09:13.800 what's the over run there after Sunday for remaining contest? Oh? 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:18.320 I I asked this of Parlay this morning. He said 0:09:18.400 --> 0:09:20.920 thirty seven and a half was the total. He said 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:24.120 something like that, I make it lower than number I 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:29.880 went under, under thirty seven and a half. I'll go over. 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:33.600 You go over, you'll say it's I'll say it's right 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:36.480 around half. If there is a doomsday scenario and Thanksgiving 0:09:36.520 --> 0:09:38.920 all three underdogs win out right, let's just say you 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:40.600 might think of it. You might You'll have like three 0:09:40.720 --> 0:09:43.000 or four. You might be done this week because those 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:44.960 three or four then have to have a winner on Sunday. 0:09:45.040 --> 0:09:47.760 What is the what is the chop rules? Do you 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:51.199 will you contact people with each other? Or no? If 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:53.400 if someone of if there's four entries left and somebody's like, hey, 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:54.960 I want to chop this, how do I get in contact? 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:58.520 Will you facilitate it only if the person agrees to 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:00.320 give out their information? So if I say I would 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:02.560 like the other three, Jeff would take the other three? 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:05.040 Do you want to share your information? Because if they don't, 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:07.360 they're not really they don't. They don't write. And when 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:12.520 is the deadline for Thanksgiving? It's the it's uh three pm, 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:15.560 the day before. I believe I might be wrong, we 0:10:15.600 --> 0:10:17.920 said at five pm Pacific this morning, we might maybe 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:20.520 maybe I might be wrong. Let's I might hold us 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:22.520 to that. I might look at the roomy text, Jeff, 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:24.880 let me text. All right, we'll figure that out. Christ 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:28.040 One is worse because it's Saturday and then Sundays another week. 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:32.040 You know what I mean. Yeah, it's the Christmas window 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:33.520 is unbelieving. I think you have to get him in 0:10:33.559 --> 0:10:37.720 by um midnight. That's Saturday night going into Sunday for 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:39.920 the Sunday following Christmas. By the way, somebody on Twitter 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:43.000 today said, what if? What if somebody splits their entries 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:44.840 on Thanksgiving and then the game ends up in a tie? 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:48.400 Could you imagine losing it? I can see the Bears 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:53.719 and Lions time and we go to over time. The 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.199 water pistol is playing, so I don't think I think 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:59.319 they're gonna sport. Todd's new hero Andy Andy Dalton is 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:01.559 your startup. I want to tell you a little thing 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:04.600 heretill about last week. So I have this thing where 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.000 in the NFL. You can do this in college too. 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:09.920 It's a nice little angle. If you have a ridiculously 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:13.880 low scoring first half a football game. For example, the 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:16.720 Bears against the Ravens last week, six nothing at the half. 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:19.160 The week before it was Seattle against Green game was 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:22.400 three nothing to half, and that Seattle game for sure 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:24.200 should have gone over at the second half. They they 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:26.840 got this winterception in the end zone. But I always 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.280 bet the over in those games because for some reason 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.440 the second half go over. Maybe the adjustments the coaches make, 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:35.040 whatever it might be. But they made the second half. 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:37.240 They made the line twenty five and a half in 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.679 the Ravens game. That's only nineteen and a half four 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.360 point in the second half of the Ravens Bears game, 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:44.800 which even in the Bears Ravens game, it wasn't like 0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:46.760 they weren't moving the ball at all. They were moving 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:48.600 a little bit. So I took you over. Anyways, I 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:51.280 had no chance at all until they brought in the 0:11:51.320 --> 0:11:54.480 beige water pistol and he hits the fourth at eleven 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:57.480 bomb for the touchdown. And then the Ravens come down 0:11:57.480 --> 0:11:59.320 its course, And not only that, I were embarrassed plus 0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:02.160 three half I went over too. I'm telling you there's 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:04.880 definitely an angle to be exploited there at halftime and 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:08.720 the score is three nothing or six nothing, three three, 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:13.600 just go over blindly any college, any pro game. It's ridiculous. 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:15.360 But you just said that, you just kind of intimated 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:17.920 how blind lucky that was. Though right in that game, 0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:20.920 I'm saying even my proof is even in a game 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:24.640 that had no business getting over, I still still went over. 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:31.040 That's how crazy conviction is. Real time is real. Okay, whatever, 0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:32.560 you don't have to you don't have to go with me. 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:36.360 I'm just telling you it's it's week after week. You 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:38.959 see it in college and pro when the score is 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.439 like three nothing or three three or six nothing and 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:43.480 they have like six points in less than the first half. 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:46.240 Just blindly I thought it was I thought I was 0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:49.200 so smart when the line crashed because Lamar Jackson was 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.680 ruled inactive and then the line crashed in Baltimore was 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:53.360 like a one point favorite or pick him whatever it 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:55.240 was they had, and I took Baltimore in the first 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:57.800 half in the full game, thinking a Keem Knicks and 0:12:57.800 --> 0:12:59.800 and Khalil Macker out of this game anyway, I love 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:02.120 to more, and I end up winning both. And it's 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.960 just such blind nonsense luck right that I win both. 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:08.959 So it's like the ultimate takeaway was I shouldn't have 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:10.840 bet it at all, even though I ended up on 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:13.640 the right side of that particular game. But I was 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:15.480 talking to somebody who at Chicago. I was like, believe me. 0:13:15.720 --> 0:13:17.839 I wasn't right and you weren't wrong, which is how 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.360 most of these NFL games end up, which is why 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:24.640 your record at him is so unbelievable and so much 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:28.720 of its late game bounces. Or it's just that's all 0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:31.280 it comes down to. There's maybe a couple of percentages 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:33.400 one way or another based on the number you get 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:35.400 earlier in the week or how good your timing is, 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.640 but the rest of there's charges. As a perfect example, 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:43.760 the Steelers have absolutely zero point zero chance. They're the 0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:47.440 complete wrong side the entire game, and somehow they get 0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:54.599 tell me and the score Gilly. I just did it 0:13:54.640 --> 0:14:00.280 with my friend because he there is almost zero point 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:03.120 there a percent chance that you can cover even after 0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:06.960 the ball. But the only way it could happen is 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.480 the way it happens. Yeah, and it's just that the 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:12.720 NFL was just it despises me, despise me. But Adam, 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:15.040 just you're being very humble. But just Todd, if you 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:16.800 could go over our records, this will give you an 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:19.080 idea how good seventy seven and thirty eight is, Todd, 0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:21.720 What do we do last week. Well, what since the 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.480 regular season started last week, we all went to in one, 0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:27.000 so we're all two in one. No, I'm just kidding. 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:29.400 We all did go We all did go to in 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:31.760 one last week. And that move Gil up to a 0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:36.480 stellar fifteen and eighteen, just a half a game behind Mike, 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.000 you who also went to in one. Who's fifteen seventeen 0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:40.880 and one, and I am a game and a half 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:44.840 pack at fourteen and nineteen. On the teaser side, it 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:48.160 is now a tie for first place as Michael Paul 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:52.120 one last week and me and Gilly did not. It's 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:55.160 now six and five for me and Nike, and Gil 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:58.880 moves to five five and one. It's tight. Everywhere in 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:03.680 this national we are we are flipping coins. It's just 0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:05.760 unbelievable what this season has been. By the way, this 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:09.760 is us. Yeah, I'd like to this year. I'd like 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:12.160 to make three notes. I'd like to make three notes. 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:14.440 One Todd they're playing with a red ball and Kiev 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:19.360 because the snow is a white on the internet, it's 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:23.120 a red ball. Number two. Adam. Adam is our guest 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:25.280 this week because no American could do it during it 0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:28.920 with Thanksgiving, but for him it's not Thanksgiving week three. 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.480 The deadline is ten pm Pacific Wednesday night for Thanksgiving, 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:35.680 So it's neither of what we thought ten o'clock Wednesday 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.360 night Pacific or one am Thursday morning Eastern to get 0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:40.360 your survivor picks in for things, and then the normal 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:46.000 times three pm. Okay, okay um any so we have it. 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:47.880 We usually go we start with Thursday night games, but 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.440 there's obviously three on Thanksgiving. If they're part of your 0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:53.480 best bets, say so. If they're not, just any thoughts, 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.920 Adam will start with you. Any conviction or what's your 0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:59.760 most conviction on anything on Thanksgiving? Is it part of 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:02.920 your best bets? Here? Sure, so I got one. I've 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:05.680 already bet, but I will leave a note that is 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:09.359 now turning into a very interesting handicapping spot in Chicago, 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:12.800 with Matt Naggy coaching his last game for the Bears 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:16.920 announced this morning, how much truth there is? But we know, 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:21.640 like a coach fired the game after, especially when it's 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.960 kind of toxic like Chicago, always leads to something. But 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:27.480 I don't remember a situation where it's been like this 0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:30.840 and it's like openly announced that he's going to be out. 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:32.880 I don't and so I don't. I don't. I don't 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:35.920 know how to handle that from a handicapping situation, but 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:38.520 it's um that could be interesting. But I bet the 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:41.680 Bills at four and four and a half, and I 0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:44.640 think that this is now a spot where off a 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:47.160 couple of bad weeks, there's now kind of growing pressure 0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:50.200 on day Ball and Alan to come up with a 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:52.760 game plan. And on paper you look at and say, 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:56.040 the Saints run defense should have no issues here because 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:58.720 the Bills have no ground game whatsoever. But I think 0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:02.440 last week what Hurts did against the Saints defense and 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:05.119 how easy he was able to run sort of opens 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:07.399 things up for the Bills quite a bit. Alan the 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:09.639 last time we've really seen him really good with his 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:12.040 legs with that k C game, and I think there's 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:14.679 kind of the same game plan emphasis here that the 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:16.880 Bills are gonna have. So I think that opens things up. 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.639 But the Saints defense all year, they've given up the 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:24.679 seventh most explosive passes against. Like the Saints defense, you 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:26.840 can hit the home run against it in the basque game, 0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:29.080 and I think with these three wide receivers for the 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:31.439 Bills that just it's gonna be hard for the Saints 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:34.280 to contain, and like on offense for the Saints, I 0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:37.080 mean this is a preseason offense with how it is 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:39.600 right now, Like, there's not likely to be Kamara on 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:42.880 the field, and I think the Bills defensively can can 0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:44.320 hold them if the Saints have to keep up. I 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:46.960 think it's a tough spot, so the Bills will be popular, 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:49.640 but I don't mind it. I'm pretty happy to take 0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:51.520 Buffalo here at four or four and a half. Yeah, 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:55.320 the Alvin Kamara news is not trending in the right 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:57.480 direction for the Saints, at least we don't think it is. 0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:01.159 Here on Tuesday morning, UM Bills the third of the 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.640 three games on Thanksgiving? Have we uh? Have we gone 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:08.800 overboard bearing the Bills at them? Because I lost on 0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:11.040 him a survivor when they lost the Jags, it was 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:15.280 just a listless performance. They've looked terrible since. Um they 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:18.400 haven't beaten anybody all year. They're now a half game 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.520 out in the a f C East. If the playoffs 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:22.639 were to start today, that actually be the seventh seed. 0:18:22.680 --> 0:18:26.160 I believe. UM no on them to miss the playoffs 0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:29.879 is four to one. Where do we stand on them? 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:32.960 Because their schedule is not like particularly easy down. There's 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:35.720 not particularly hard either, but the easy part, the easiest 0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:40.240 part is behind them. I still think they're fine, and 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:42.520 I think we've seen this happen to every other team 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:44.240 in the a f C at some point this season, 0:18:44.280 --> 0:18:46.800 Like Kansas City went on that cold streak and we're like, 0:18:46.840 --> 0:18:49.760 are they done and where do they stand? Then we 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:52.119 saw the Tennessee Titan rattled off all those wins and 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:54.520 now all of a sudden they look broken in their 0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:57.320 own right. Um, it just keeps happening to teams at 0:18:57.320 --> 0:19:00.320 the top of the a f C. I think Buffalo 0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:02.360 kind of have to stick to what we've seen from 0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:04.440 them at least early in the season and the promise 0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:08.399 this roster delivered. So definitely not out on Buffalo just yet. 0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:10.119 But I think it's just kind of how the AMC 0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:12.840 is playing out this year, where there's a new best 0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:15.480 team every single week. The Titans are the most fascinating 0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:17.560 of that bunch. Like I don't remember remember season where 0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:20.959 with like six games remaining, you could say about a team. 0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:25.879 They're the number one seed today as currently constituted, without 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:29.119 Derrick Henry or Julio Jones, they are a shell of 0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:31.639 their former selves. They are really bad at football right 0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:33.879 at this moment. But if they can figure that the 0:19:33.960 --> 0:19:37.120 hardest games that are behind them, which they've won their 0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:38.760 easiest than though we could have said this about this 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:42.560 past Sunday to noted um, they're easy games that they 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:45.000 have the second easiest schedule moving forward, only the Eagles 0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:47.920 have an easier schedule. And so it's this weird, full 0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:52.480 core moment where it's like, if they can overcome these games, 0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:54.320 they could end up the number one seed and have 0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:57.240 the easiest path and get Henry back, or they could 0:19:57.359 --> 0:20:00.919 just crap out entirely and not even get there, Like 0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:03.520 it's amazing you can get the court about my forty 0:20:03.560 --> 0:20:06.959 one to one Pats? What about my Pats. Everyone's just 0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:10.120