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Speaker 1: That'd be easter.

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Speaker 2: Guys, how are you welcome into a Sunday morning edition

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Speaker 2: of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perrault. How

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Speaker 2: are you so here? We are on a Sunday. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully you guys are having a great day, spending some

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Speaker 2: time with some family, some great basketball games to get

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Speaker 2: into here today. I got four plays for us that

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Speaker 2: we're going to jump in with here, three with the

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Speaker 2: NBA playoffs and one with Major League Baseball that will

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Speaker 2: jump into.

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Speaker 1: It is easter, after all, so there's a play we

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Speaker 1: gotta make.

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Speaker 2: Just has to happen. But so here we are taping.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how the day was yet. We gotta

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Speaker 2: wait and see how it all plays out. But because

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Speaker 2: the Combat Sports is going to end pretty late, I

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Speaker 2: gotta get this taped and get this up. So I

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Speaker 2: don't know how today, how Saturday ended, So hopefully it

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Speaker 2: was a winning day. I'm not sure what's going to

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Speaker 2: be a winning day. But just a quick thing on

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Speaker 2: the USFL. So we got that bet wrong. One of

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Speaker 2: the things that I talked about last night was we

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Speaker 2: don't know anything about the league. So after watching the

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Speaker 2: USFL and the under not coming in one thing. Now,

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Speaker 2: the opener was fifty five and a half. Okay, when

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Speaker 2: that thing opened offshore, it was just absolutely crushed all

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Speaker 2: the way down to forty two and a half. It

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Speaker 2: ended up closing at forty so that was even Some

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Speaker 2: late action came in and got all down to forty

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Speaker 2: two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Late action came in.

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Speaker 2: So if I'm not going to bet the USFL today, okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm going to watch the league a little bit. It

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Speaker 2: was the opener of the first ever game Saturday night.

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Speaker 2: I wanted to have some action on it just to see.

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Speaker 2: But one thing quick observations. One, the defenses are tired

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Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter. Two, there aren't flags being thrown.

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Speaker 2: These referees have been essentially told to not bog down

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Speaker 2: this league with calls. And three I knew they wanted points.

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Speaker 2: I wasn't so sure as to how far they were

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Speaker 2: going to go to kind of make sure that points

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Speaker 2: are going to be scored. But they're really going to be.

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Speaker 2: These games are going to be higher scoring than what

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Speaker 2: we think. Okay, so watch these games. I would lean

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Speaker 2: towards overs here. I think the way the rules are

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Speaker 2: the way the game plans are being set up, running

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Speaker 2: the ball will keep the scores suppressed a little bit

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Speaker 2: because everyone at least in the first game, both teams

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Speaker 2: Jersey Birmingham were both running the ball a lot. But

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Speaker 2: they're running the ball really effectively because I think that

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Speaker 2: both offenses had practiced the run game really well and

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Speaker 2: they were picking up big chunks of yardage. Red zone defenses,

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Speaker 2: Uh huh, nope, those are your packages with the NFL.

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Speaker 2: You have a red zone defense, you have red zone package.

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Speaker 2: So clearly these teams have not practiced that, and they

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Speaker 2: clearly do not have a lot of tackling down right now.

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Speaker 2: Their timing is down, their communication is down, and the

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Speaker 2: running game offenses have a big advantage early. Okay, so

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Speaker 2: this is something we're going to learn. Gotta be an

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Speaker 2: evaluation process as to how the year goes. I love

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Speaker 2: spring football. I love betting on spring football, but I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to bet it today. It's going to be

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Speaker 2: an observation day. Let's goin to sit back, Let's watch

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Speaker 2: and see what these teams look like, what offenses are doing,

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Speaker 2: what how these teams look before we bet on sides,

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Speaker 2: because betting on totals I was going to bet unders

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Speaker 2: in the first and we hit yesterday. I was going

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Speaker 2: to bet some unders today we missed, so I'm going

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Speaker 2: to hold off. But sides are really where you want

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Speaker 2: to make some noise here. I know a lot of

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Speaker 2: people who like New Orleans today, So if you want

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Speaker 2: to play New Orleans, lay the points with I think

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Speaker 2: it's minus three on New Orleans. So I've been told

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Speaker 2: that by a buddy of mine. Say hey, I like

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Speaker 2: New Orleans on Sunday. Okay, great, happy for you. I'm

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Speaker 2: not there, Okay, so let's talk some NBA basketball. I

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Speaker 2: bet this when the line was three, line is four.

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Speaker 2: I'm okay with it.

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Speaker 1: Though.

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Speaker 2: Boston at home against Brooklyn. Now the numbers here, you

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Speaker 2: might go, WHOA Matt, Okay, Brooklyn. Teams that win series

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Speaker 2: normally they win game one. Okay, a lot of steam

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Speaker 2: on the Celtics to win this series. I'm not really there, Okay.

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Speaker 2: I'm not one hundred percent sure that Boston's gonna win

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Speaker 2: this series. In fact, I wouldn't hate to play. Take

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Speaker 2: the plus money on Brooklyn seems kind of public. Doesn't

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Speaker 2: mean it's not going to hit, however. Jason Tatum Jalen Brown,

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Speaker 2: but no Robert Williams for game one. If Robert Williams

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Speaker 2: coming to the series, Game three, Game four, game changer

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Speaker 2: in my mind for Boston eventively game changer. Celtics headed

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Speaker 2: into the playoffs on a four game ATS winning streak.

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Speaker 2: Beat Memphis by twenty nine, beat Chicago by twenty three,

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Speaker 2: beat Washington by forty two. Lost to Milwaukee on the

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Speaker 2: road by six, catching eight and a half points, though

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Speaker 2: so they covered okay on the year, Boston at home

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Speaker 2: eighteen twenty one to two. The end of the year,

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Speaker 2: though on a seven to three run ats. Brooklyn on

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Speaker 2: the road's been pretty good. Why Kyrie's played on the

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Speaker 2: road twenty three to seven, teen and one. Okay, they've

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Speaker 2: failed to cover their last two games and in fact,

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Speaker 2: going down the stretch three and seven ats for Brooklyn.

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Speaker 2: It's really hard to look at the season and go

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Speaker 2: we can grab something off of this because Boston last

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Speaker 2: time played against Brooklyn on the sixth of March laid six,

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Speaker 2: won by six. Okay, before that, Boston on the road

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Speaker 2: laying ten won by thirty five against Brooklyn.

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Speaker 1: Game before that was way back in.

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Speaker 2: The meeting part of the year, laying one and a

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Speaker 2: half at home, lost by nineteen points.

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Speaker 1: Kyrie went off in that game scored a.

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Speaker 2: Ton and the fourth matchup was let me see when

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Speaker 2: the fourth matchup was between these teams? That was fourth matchup?

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Speaker 2: Do you only play three times? We only played three

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Speaker 2: times this year? That was once twice? Oh, laying nine.

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Speaker 2: They won by twenty three points. Okay, So Boston is

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Speaker 2: three and one ats three and one straight up against Brooklyn.

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Speaker 2: This environment is going to be electric. Okay, first quarter Brooklyn.

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Speaker 2: That comes from my partner, Dave Shaffer Chirrupan, who made

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Speaker 2: a pretty good case about Boston being a bit too

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Speaker 2: hype in the first quarter that maybe Brooklyn gets after it.

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Speaker 2: They're leading after one. Boston has been a very good

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Speaker 2: fourth quarter team. They've been a very good closeout team

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Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter. I'm gonna lay the four points

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Speaker 2: with Boston. I'll take Brooklyn first quarter. Depending on what

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Speaker 2: number you get here, probably half a point or minus one.

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Speaker 2: It's a pretty good bet to bet Brooklyn first quarter.

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Speaker 2: I'll be on that personally, but officially Boston Celtics laying four.

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Speaker 2: I bet three right when it came out it went

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Speaker 2: up to four. I think you can still bet it

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Speaker 2: I think three four. I'm okay with that, laying four.

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Speaker 2: Officially I have three, so hopefully that's what comes in.

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Speaker 2: I told you guys about that on the Discord channel

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Speaker 2: bettingpros dot Com slash chat to get in there. Discord

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Speaker 2: bet by the way, missed yesterday. Unfortunately, I had a

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Speaker 2: three lefs parlay going. Raptors got destroyed, so that annihilated that.

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Speaker 2: The Nuggets got killed two so one in two on that,

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Speaker 2: my under came in.

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Speaker 1: One bet we got right.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday was the under on Dallas easily coming in on that,

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Speaker 2: so we got that right.

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Speaker 1: So we're going under.

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Speaker 2: Sorry, we're going Boston minus four here at home against

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Speaker 2: Brooklyn for a half a unit. Okay, second bed of

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Speaker 2: the day. Speaking of unders, this goes right into our wheelhouse.

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Speaker 2: Chicago and Milwaukee are both divisional opponents. Chicago against divisional

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Speaker 2: opponents this year twenty nine sorry twelve and three in

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Speaker 2: one to the under. Milwaukee against divisional opponents, ten and

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Speaker 2: six to the under against the Eastern Conference Chicago twenty nine,

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Speaker 2: twenty two in one to the under Milwaukee twenty nine

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Speaker 2: in twenty three against the Conference to the under at

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Speaker 2: home Milwaukee twenty one and twenty to the over Chicago

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Speaker 2: on the road though twenty two eighteen and one to

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Speaker 2: the under two twenty nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: This number is trending up.

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Speaker 2: You may get a better number than me on this, okay,

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Speaker 2: but this is a perfect perfect game to middle.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: I tried to middle the old the Dallas game. Didn't work, okay,

160
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Speaker 2: so I gave a little bit back. It didn't bet

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Speaker 2: the full half a unit going into that. I can

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Speaker 2: give a little bit a smaller bet on the you

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Speaker 2: try to middle it, still want money on it, but

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to do it again here on this one.

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Speaker 2: So you lay under two twenty nine and a half

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Speaker 2: or under two thirty to bring one of the number

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Speaker 2: eights when you get it, and then watch for a

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Speaker 2: slow start. Hopefully it comes.

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Speaker 1: All the way down.

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Speaker 2: I looked for a twenty point fifteen points is the minimum.

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Speaker 2: I hope for twenty. You get a twenty point middle.

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Speaker 2: If this thing at any point during it's two thirty,

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Speaker 2: At any point if it's two ten, bet the over okay,

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Speaker 2: under first over second, twenty point middle. Try to get

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Speaker 2: both bets, okay. Use in game wagering to your advantage.

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Speaker 2: Use the algorithms to your advantage. I mean anytime during

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Speaker 2: the game, if you have the under two thirty or

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Speaker 2: two twenty nine and a half under two thirty cashes

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Speaker 2: for us, you get a two to ten or higher

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Speaker 2: or lower rather over that the over, and you have

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Speaker 2: a huge middle to hop in on that. Okay, Chicago

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Speaker 2: Milwaukee this year it's been crazy. I mean these games

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Speaker 2: have gone not just under, but I mean way under

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Speaker 2: against each other. They didn't play each other for a while,

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Speaker 2: but on the twenty first of January, Milwaukee hosted Chicago

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Speaker 2: to twenty seven was the total. It went under by

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Speaker 2: forty three points. Tanisco under. It went way under.

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Speaker 1: In that game.

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Speaker 2: Game on the third, I'm sorry, the fourth of j

190
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Speaker 2: of March two forty and a half game went under

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Speaker 2: by ten and a half points. Then on the twenty

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Speaker 2: second of March two thirty four and a half game

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Speaker 2: went under by ten and a half points. Since the

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Speaker 2: trend year, the only game that went over was on

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Speaker 2: the fifth of April on the road in Chicago. It

196
00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,440
Speaker 2: was a two thirty one total. We bet the under

197
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Speaker 2: in that game, and the over came over by two points.

198
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Speaker 2: Just got over at two thirty one and a half. Okay,

199
00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:12,000
Speaker 2: says two twenty nine and a half, three and one

200
00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:15,080
Speaker 2: to the under way under double digit under in both

201
00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:18,840
Speaker 2: in all three games playoff basketball under two twenty nine

202
00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:22,520
Speaker 2: and a half for Milwaukee and Chicago here for a half.

203
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Speaker 1: A unit, okay.

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Speaker 2: And so I'm gonna do something I don't normally do.

205
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Speaker 2: And I think there's a big mismatch here in every game. Milwaukee, Chicago, Phoenix,

206
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Speaker 2: New Orleans, Miami, Atlanta. Okay, I think the home team wins.

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00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,559
Speaker 2: I think the home teams may not cover six and

208
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Speaker 2: a half ten and a half or nine and a half,

209
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Speaker 2: ten and a half for these numbers.

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Speaker 1: Don't like that.

211
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Speaker 2: But I will be stunned if Miami loses to Atlanta

212
00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:57,920
Speaker 2: at home in Game one, or Milwaukee loses to Chicago

213
00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:01,560
Speaker 2: at home in Game one, or Phoenix loses to New

214
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:06,200
Speaker 2: Orleans at home in Game one. You parlayed those three

215
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Speaker 2: on the money line together to minus one ten bet

216
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:14,599
Speaker 2: heat Bucks Sons money line minus one ten half a

217
00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:18,680
Speaker 2: unit playing that as well. I know it's heavy chalk,

218
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Speaker 2: I know it's dangerous, but I can't see it. I

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Speaker 2: can't see it Atlanta beating Miami in Game one. I

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Speaker 2: cannot see Milwaukee beating Chicago beating Milwaukee, and I can't

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Speaker 2: see New Orleans beating Phoenix. Look, Minnesota just beat Memphis. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I get that. But Memphis is a new beat to

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Speaker 2: the playoffs. Okay, this is not This is not Miami,

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Speaker 2: Milwaukee or Phoenix. Okay, Phoenix Western Conference champions last year,

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Speaker 2: Milwaukee NBA champions last year. Miami veteran team at home,

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Speaker 2: Atlanta coming in. You know they need to play well

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Speaker 2: to get out. The just started off here. Miami's great

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Speaker 2: at home this season. Have a phenomenal home court record

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Speaker 2: for the Miami Heat this season, and I would expect

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Speaker 2: Miami to probably cover in this, but I'm not positive.

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Speaker 2: Twenty nine and twelve the Miami Heat at home this season,

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Speaker 2: Phoenix thirty two and nine at home this season. Milwaukee

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Speaker 2: was twenty seven and fourteen at home this season. Three

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Speaker 2: leg moneyline parlay five or point five units half a

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Speaker 2: unit at mis one ten third bet for the NBA

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Speaker 2: playoffs here today, Now one thing you can bet at

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Speaker 2: Fandel I told you guys about this.

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Speaker 1: This is from Dave.

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Speaker 2: Sheapan not my bet, Dave's bet, so I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to go ahead and take credit for it. But day

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Speaker 2: put in it. It's only available at fandel. This is interesting, Okay.

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Speaker 2: So if you look at the money line for the Phoenix,

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Speaker 2: sorry for the Milwaukee Bucks here in game number one, okay,

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Speaker 2: they're minus five point fifty, Okay, minus five point fifty.

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Speaker 2: The series price is minus eleven hundred FanDuel currently has

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Speaker 2: a bet where if you bet Milwaukee to win Game

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Speaker 2: one and for Milwaukee to win the series minus three sixty.

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Speaker 1: Does that math make sense to you? Think about that? Okay?

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Speaker 2: Why that's a mispriced bet? If it's minus five p

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Speaker 2: fifty on the money line to win game one and

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Speaker 2: mine's eleven hundred to win the series, how is that

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Speaker 2: bet combined? They're only going to give you at minus

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Speaker 2: three sixty juice. It's expensive. But what you can do

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Speaker 2: is you can bet that bet at minus three sixty,

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Speaker 2: and you can bet the Bulls at plus four hundred

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Speaker 2: to win game one. Just in case, Bulls aren't beating

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Speaker 2: Milwaukee in this series. It's not happening. Milwaukee's not getting

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Speaker 2: bounced by the Chicago Bulls. Okay, not happening. Chicago's played

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Speaker 2: like a lottery team down the stretch. They aren't just

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Speaker 2: turning it on and knocking out the defending champs in

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Speaker 2: a seven game series with Giannis on the court not happening. Okay,

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Speaker 2: So in case you want to hedge a little bit,

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Speaker 2: there's a plus four hundred bet there and then lay

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Speaker 2: minus three to sixty. I mean you could lay thousands

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Speaker 2: on this. Okay, I'm not recommending that, but that is

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Speaker 2: a really wild bet at fan you could make. We

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Speaker 2: talked about it on my other show on Friday. We

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Speaker 2: talked about it this Saturday morning on the Discord live chat.

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Speaker 2: I'm telling anybody here on the podcast, if you have

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Speaker 2: access to FanDuel, check out that bet, because that may

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Speaker 2: be a bet to jump in on if you want to.

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Speaker 2: If you're okay with the juice there, if you're not

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Speaker 2: okay with the Jews, you can bet plus four hundred

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Speaker 2: on Chicago Game one to win and to kind of

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Speaker 2: give yourself a little bit of a hedge there in

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Speaker 2: case you might lose. But Milwaukee to win Game one

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Speaker 2: and to win the series. I mean, come on, now,

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Speaker 2: that should hit, That should be, that should happen in

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Speaker 2: Maas three sixty No, Surrey, that's a good bet to make.

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Speaker 2: Just a heads up, if you have access to Fangil.

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Speaker 2: One more bet to make here, and it's Easter. Do

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Speaker 2: you think in the sports gambling universe that the San

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Speaker 2: Diego Padres can lose on Easter?

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Speaker 1: They can't lose on Easter.

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Speaker 2: Come on, it's our Braves Podres Sunday Night baseball. There

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Speaker 2: is no way they're one and two at home. You

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Speaker 2: Darvis to the bump. Bryce Elder going on the other side,

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Speaker 2: Darvis pitched really poorly in his first game. Era's ten

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Speaker 2: point five to seven. It's not gonna continue you, Darvis,

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Speaker 2: can't allow that. You got all these eyeballs on them

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Speaker 2: right now, minus one thirty on the money line.

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Speaker 1: It's Easter. We're betting on the Padres.

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Speaker 2: Let's go with the Padres, the Fathers, the Priests, San

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Speaker 2: Diego at home minus one thirty on the money line,

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Speaker 2: half a unit. It's not really a big breakdown there.

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Speaker 2: It's just Padres aren't losing on Easter. At home on

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Speaker 2: Sunday Night baseball, Padres win. They beat the Braves half

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Speaker 2: a unit at minus one to thirty. Okay, those are

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Speaker 2: the plays here on an Easter Sunday for US Boston

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Speaker 2: minus four under two, twenty nine for the Bulls and

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Speaker 2: the Bucks, heat Bucks' Sons money line parlay at minus

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Speaker 2: won ten Padres money line at minus one thirty half

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Speaker 2: a unit. Bets on four of them on this Easter Sunday.

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Speaker 2: Mine's Matt Parolt. Follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 2: Each and every morning, it's the del Juice Podcast, always

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Speaker 2: being brought to you by BEDEMGM