1
00:00:02,080 --> 00:00:05,480
Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

2
00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:08,600
Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus mobile app and on your radio.

3
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,319
Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and good morning. I'm

4
00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:15,000
Speaker 1: John Tucker. The Bloomberg Futures reports this morning being blocked

5
00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:17,800
Speaker 1: you by Interactive Brokers and CME Groupie. If you're looking

6
00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:20,880
Speaker 1: for global futures contract with low trading costs, look no

7
00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:24,239
Speaker 1: further interacted brokers. The Industry Leader learned more at the

8
00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:29,160
Speaker 1: Interactive Brokers dot com slash c m E Group futures

9
00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:31,440
Speaker 1: pointing to a lower open on Wall Street. SMP futures

10
00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:34,880
Speaker 1: right now down ten points, the down EMNT futures down

11
00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,200
Speaker 1: eighty six. That's down about half a Percent's taking many

12
00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:40,640
Speaker 1: futures down to twenty four points. That's down a half

13
00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,880
Speaker 1: a percent. Stocks slumping with oil and also metals after

14
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:50,320
Speaker 1: Central Bank meetings increased concern the global economy maybe losing momentum.

15
00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,920
Speaker 1: We have the end staring up one point eight percent

16
00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,640
Speaker 1: one oh four oh nine. And if you believe in

17
00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,480
Speaker 1: these surveys. A survey by ipsus Marie for the Evening

18
00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:03,640
Speaker 1: Standard News paper in Britain released it today shows fifty

19
00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:07,800
Speaker 1: three percent support for leaving the European Union with for

20
00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,760
Speaker 1: remain uh Sterling right now down to eight cans of

21
00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:17,640
Speaker 1: represented one forty eight nine Brent accrued down seventy five

22
00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:22,640
Speaker 1: cents of barrel at forty two and spot gold eighteen

23
00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:25,840
Speaker 1: fifty seven half their team ten forty three which at

24
00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:29,240
Speaker 1: the markets three fifteen minutes during the training day right

25
00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:33,920
Speaker 1: here Boomberg Radio, Michael and Tom back to you, John Tucker,

26
00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,320
Speaker 1: thanks so much. Data checks John with a nice one.

27
00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,399
Speaker 1: They're showing the dynamics. If I had to say anything, folks,

28
00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,160
Speaker 1: I need to be careful here. Euro yen is what

29
00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,399
Speaker 1: the pros look at as a global dynamic. It is

30
00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:50,640
Speaker 1: well in excess of three standard deviations. Strong euro excuse me,

31
00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:54,680
Speaker 1: strong yen week euro right now. It's not out the

32
00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:59,520
Speaker 1: crisis or sterium move, but we're really getting to wear.

33
00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:04,600
Speaker 1: As Trisha would say, brutal moves are occurring. John mentioning

34
00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:07,640
Speaker 1: sterling to new weakness, not you know, year weakness that

35
00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,760
Speaker 1: was in February, but one sterling. Um. This is a

36
00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:15,040
Speaker 1: mighty good time to speak for two or three hours

37
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,359
Speaker 1: With Douglas Cass of Sea Breeze Partners, he has negotiated

38
00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,760
Speaker 1: that back to a half hour because the Red Sox

39
00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:27,360
Speaker 1: are in first place, trouncing everybody in sight. We speak

40
00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,280
Speaker 1: with Doug Casts of Seabreeze. Doug, I want to save

41
00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,600
Speaker 1: the apple for a discussion here and a bit you wrote.

42
00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:36,800
Speaker 1: You wrote a brilliant article yesterday with your caution on

43
00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:41,079
Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank away from by hold Cell on European banking.

44
00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:47,240
Speaker 1: Explained to our audience why you look at Deutsche Bank, Well,

45
00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:51,040
Speaker 1: people are not focused on what what is turning out

46
00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:55,240
Speaker 1: to be the canary in the global coal mine, Deutsche Bank.

47
00:02:56,240 --> 00:03:02,600
Speaker 1: I don't think many people recognize common Mike that Deutsche

48
00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:08,320
Speaker 1: banks market capitalization has shrunk to under twenty billion dollars

49
00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,680
Speaker 1: this morning. This this is a bank. It's the largest

50
00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,520
Speaker 1: bank in Germany. It has a hundred and five thousand

51
00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:20,839
Speaker 1: employees and has one point nine trillion of assets, including

52
00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:26,880
Speaker 1: one of the world's largest and most opaque derivative books. This,

53
00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,200
Speaker 1: if you put it into context, is the market cap

54
00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,840
Speaker 1: of a small regional in the US, sun Trust, which

55
00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:38,440
Speaker 1: has roughly a sixth of the workforce and less than

56
00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:43,320
Speaker 1: ten of the asset base um. This is roughly half

57
00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:48,160
Speaker 1: the market cap of foundering Yahoo, and is only twice

58
00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,960
Speaker 1: as large as a floundering TWITTER market cap UM. This

59
00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:59,240
Speaker 1: is a big problem. UM. The bank UM and the

60
00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:03,440
Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank and its peers in Europe are very leveraged

61
00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:08,280
Speaker 1: UM close to forty times. They have not undergone the

62
00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:12,960
Speaker 1: de leveraging that occurred in the domestic commercial bank business,

63
00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,240
Speaker 1: particularly the money centers in the US UM six or

64
00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,960
Speaker 1: seven years ago. Their funding pressures arising. If you look

65
00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:22,360
Speaker 1: at the lib or oh I spread, which no one

66
00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,680
Speaker 1: is uh if this is a measure of counterparty risks TOM,

67
00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:31,560
Speaker 1: it's widening. UM. The Brexit fears. The decision is going

68
00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:33,840
Speaker 1: to be made next week. It's going to create a

69
00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:38,800
Speaker 1: number of structural uncertainties and probably reduced trade activity and

70
00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,680
Speaker 1: asset growth to the banks. The industry and or the

71
00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:46,680
Speaker 1: bank are facing terrible credit quality losses which are stressing

72
00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:51,919
Speaker 1: already leveraged and under capitalized balance sheets. They face regulatory issues,

73
00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:59,080
Speaker 1: They face market rigging, fraudulent trading, money wondering issues, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. UM.

74
00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:01,840
Speaker 1: This to me is more significant than a I G

75
00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,039
Speaker 1: was to the United States into the world in two

76
00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:08,840
Speaker 1: thousand eight. Within this are the checks and balances I

77
00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:14,799
Speaker 1: believe I don't observe a Cassian urgency among European banking

78
00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:20,480
Speaker 1: slash regulators over any given European bank. This would be

79
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:25,640
Speaker 1: different if Deutsche Bank was in the United States, wouldn't it. Um.

80
00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:29,520
Speaker 1: They would have had written down their equity base, they

81
00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,560
Speaker 1: would have been considered a failed bank, and they probably

82
00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:38,720
Speaker 1: would have been rescued by UM the Treasury in two

83
00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:43,680
Speaker 1: thousand and mergers and acquisitions would have occurred. Do you,

84
00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:47,040
Speaker 1: within your years of experience, seriously, dug within your years

85
00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:52,440
Speaker 1: of experience, do you see any ability within continental Europe

86
00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:56,160
Speaker 1: to use mergers and acquisitions is a constructive way to

87
00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:59,600
Speaker 1: clear financial markets. I don't observe it. No, it would

88
00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:07,560
Speaker 1: be like uh merging the Yankees with the Tampa Bay Box. Um. No,

89
00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,520
Speaker 1: I don't see. Look, the one thing I know about

90
00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,440
Speaker 1: is the banking industry. I was a bank analyst for

91
00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,560
Speaker 1: at Putnam for many years. While I was awarded, I

92
00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:18,840
Speaker 1: co wrote a book with Ralph Nader called City Bank,

93
00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:23,520
Speaker 1: which Walter Riston responded to in a hardcover book. In fact,

94
00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,800
Speaker 1: I just went on Amazon. I got ten or twelve

95
00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:30,520
Speaker 1: copies UM this week because he was so angry at

96
00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:38,360
Speaker 1: our conclusions. Um. The banking industry, UM is the lifeblood

97
00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:43,760
Speaker 1: of of global growth. And as you know, in Europe,

98
00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:49,559
Speaker 1: the EU banks play a much more dominant role in

99
00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:54,320
Speaker 1: um in the movement of goods and products in that

100
00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,560
Speaker 1: region of the world. It's not like the US where

101
00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,799
Speaker 1: we have commercial bank commercial paper markets, we have most

102
00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,839
Speaker 1: companies of cash rich and self funding. It's not the

103
00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:09,640
Speaker 1: case in Europe. The huge problem and it's being dismissed

104
00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:14,440
Speaker 1: by the market. Um, okay, well, we're gonna come back

105
00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:16,680
Speaker 1: with Doug Cass there's Deutsche banker. Will come back on

106
00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,360
Speaker 1: his short on Apple and also talk to him about

107
00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:23,480
Speaker 1: the general market gyrations. Mr Cass is a Sea Breeze partners.

108
00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:28,520
Speaker 1: Futures negative ten, town futures negative eight deguration in selected

109
00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:32,280
Speaker 1: markets right now. German two year negative zero points six

110
00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,720
Speaker 1: zero six. A little bit of a tickdown there. Yen

111
00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:42,200
Speaker 1: one oh four sixteen euro Yen one sixteen seventeen. This

112
00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:47,160
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Surveillance. We are coming down to the opening bell,

113
00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,520
Speaker 1: brought to you by the jeep Grand Cherokee, the most

114
00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:54,560
Speaker 1: awarded suv ever. The Grand Cherokee continues to raise the

115
00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:59,680
Speaker 1: bar with its luxurious interior and four by four capability,

116
00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:07,720
Speaker 1: broadcasting live to New York Bloomberg to Washington, d C,

117
00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:11,920
Speaker 1: Bloomberg nine one to Boston Bloomberg dwell unders to San

118
00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:16,240
Speaker 1: Francisco Bloomberg nine six to the country series at General

119
00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,720
Speaker 1: one ninet and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Lust

120
00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:24,560
Speaker 1: and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance and the

121
00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,440
Speaker 1: Good Morning. I'm John Tucker along with Tom Keena and

122
00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,000
Speaker 1: Michael McKee of the Opening Gale. This morning is being

123
00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:33,560
Speaker 1: brought to you by SEI. In the future, the asset

124
00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,559
Speaker 1: management business will be profoundly different. Find out how it.

125
00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,319
Speaker 1: Seis Global Operating Platform can help you navigate to do

126
00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:45,600
Speaker 1: operational frontier at se i C dot com, slash imagine

127
00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,120
Speaker 1: and right out of the gate, we have a U

128
00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,280
Speaker 1: S stocks following global markets lower this morning down Jones

129
00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,400
Speaker 1: and Dustrial average down fifty eight points a decline right

130
00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,440
Speaker 1: now three tenths of a percent, S and P five

131
00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,800
Speaker 1: hundred down eight points than as the Composite index to

132
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,640
Speaker 1: three points lower. That's down about a half a percent.

133
00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,440
Speaker 1: Most active so far this morning in the early going

134
00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,120
Speaker 1: right Aid Corporation that has down one and a half

135
00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:12,240
Speaker 1: percent right now seven seventy three a share. First quarter

136
00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:16,320
Speaker 1: justin net Ibadah that is a trailing estimates. They're one

137
00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:19,080
Speaker 1: of the few companies out with earnings this morning. Also

138
00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,360
Speaker 1: some of the banks, shears Bank of America that's down

139
00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:25,400
Speaker 1: eight tens of percent thirteen twenty three. This low interest

140
00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:29,240
Speaker 1: rate environment not exactly encouraging four banks. Once again, the

141
00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:33,439
Speaker 1: doll down seventy two points, SMP five hundred eight points lower.

142
00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,760
Speaker 1: We check the markets for you every ten minutes during

143
00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,520
Speaker 1: the tradeing day right here on Bloomberg Radio. Back to

144
00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:41,400
Speaker 1: Mike and Tom John Tucker, thank you so much. The

145
00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,880
Speaker 1: VIX twenty one point five five up one point four

146
00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,520
Speaker 1: one uh figures. If I had to look at one

147
00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:49,480
Speaker 1: thing right now, folks, among the many moving parts, new

148
00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:53,600
Speaker 1: curve flatness two tents, spread eighty six basis points eighty

149
00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:58,400
Speaker 1: six point five six nowhere nearer recession indicator, but nevertheless

150
00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:02,720
Speaker 1: a flattening yield curve within the interdependencies of the market.

151
00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,360
Speaker 1: A perfect time to speak with Douglas Cast Seabreeze partners. Doug,

152
00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:08,560
Speaker 1: I want to get to Apple, but I gotta squeeze

153
00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:13,240
Speaker 1: in the markets here first. What should someone less sophisticated

154
00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:18,040
Speaker 1: than Douglas Casts do when they see the turmoil amid bonds,

155
00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:22,520
Speaker 1: foreign exchange and commodities. How do they bring that over

156
00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,640
Speaker 1: to what they should do with their equities? And they

157
00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:32,120
Speaker 1: should probably recognize that the notion adopted by Larry Summers

158
00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:39,040
Speaker 1: and others of secular economic stagnation is finally coming to

159
00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:45,080
Speaker 1: the four and that it implies a period of subpar

160
00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:49,800
Speaker 1: type of economic growth around the world, a difficult period

161
00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:54,199
Speaker 1: for corporate profits, a squeeze on profit margins, and the

162
00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:58,199
Speaker 1: market that's trading twenty four times gas learnings as very vulnerable.

163
00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,840
Speaker 1: So the best thing to do most evil, don't short

164
00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,680
Speaker 1: like myself. It's uh. It requires a great deal of

165
00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:07,680
Speaker 1: risk discipline, pricing discipline. The best thing to do is

166
00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:13,040
Speaker 1: have higher than average cash reserves and save your money

167
00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,560
Speaker 1: for the rainy day, because I think it's starting to rain.

168
00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:21,640
Speaker 1: Within that is a basic idea of the loopiness of

169
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:26,160
Speaker 1: the markets and the macro economic analysis. The number one

170
00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,680
Speaker 1: thing right now is we have a group of interviews

171
00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:32,480
Speaker 1: saying this is all about Brexit remain, and another group

172
00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,200
Speaker 1: which I believe I can put you in, which says, no,

173
00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:38,160
Speaker 1: it's got a little bit more to do with with

174
00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,800
Speaker 1: things other than two. You're in the camp that it's

175
00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:45,760
Speaker 1: got to do with a demand efficiency worldwide. Yeah I did.

176
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,280
Speaker 1: I actually sent you three charts and I didn't look

177
00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:50,640
Speaker 1: at him. In response to your guests, I was too

178
00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,280
Speaker 1: busy watching a Red Sox win continue. I'll stop it.

179
00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,120
Speaker 1: Break up the Red Sox please, I'm begging you. Domestic

180
00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:00,480
Speaker 1: economic activity is slowing. I don't think this is really

181
00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:04,079
Speaker 1: has to do with Brexit, because frankly, if you if

182
00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,600
Speaker 1: you look at the betting parlors, it's one to two

183
00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:10,240
Speaker 1: odds that UM that England will remain, in two to

184
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,160
Speaker 1: one that the lexit. And I like the betting parlors

185
00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:16,440
Speaker 1: because that's where real money is bet not opinion UM.

186
00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:19,720
Speaker 1: And the fact is that Brexit, even if they do remain,

187
00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:23,200
Speaker 1: they'll be continued uncertainty. But domestic economic activity is slowing.

188
00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:26,280
Speaker 1: In the three charts I sent you on industrial production,

189
00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:30,640
Speaker 1: on capacity utilization and the peaking of auto production are

190
00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:34,120
Speaker 1: very clear. I mean, you know, charts don't lie. My

191
00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,800
Speaker 1: grandma co Facts used to say, don't tell me it's

192
00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:41,360
Speaker 1: raining when you're pissing in my face. Within that and

193
00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:45,199
Speaker 1: I featured cap you today and in capacity utilization, folks

194
00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:48,839
Speaker 1: is rolling over. Doug Cass explained to our audience like

195
00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:54,640
Speaker 1: capacity utilization has vailue if we're a service sector economy.

196
00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,720
Speaker 1: I mean, I get it that it worked in our

197
00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:02,360
Speaker 1: manufact because manufacturing remains fifteen sent of domestic g d

198
00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:08,040
Speaker 1: P and with cost rising for manufacturing companies, profit margins

199
00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:12,280
Speaker 1: are being squeezed. When profit margins are squeezed, profits are squeezed,

200
00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:16,440
Speaker 1: and that reduces hiring. And we saw that manifest in

201
00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:20,280
Speaker 1: the last month's labor business. You know. My sports metaphor

202
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:24,040
Speaker 1: today is the market is like the New York Yankees

203
00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:29,120
Speaker 1: pictures CC Sabathia. It's aging. Sabathia is thirty six years old.

204
00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:32,000
Speaker 1: He doesn't say, is anybody on the Yankees under thirty two?

205
00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,760
Speaker 1: I don't, I don't. I don't love you know something.

206
00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,480
Speaker 1: I'm solos to guest host in two weeks. I really

207
00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:40,480
Speaker 1: want to wear my Yankees my Red Sox sucks T shirts.

208
00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,720
Speaker 1: I like that. You can do that, Doug with the market, folks,

209
00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:45,200
Speaker 1: let me do a quick data check here with Doug

210
00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,959
Speaker 1: gas the sea breeze negative one on the Dala vix

211
00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,160
Speaker 1: point seven three. The tenure yield is plunging right now,

212
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:53,880
Speaker 1: no other way to put it to four digits one

213
00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,360
Speaker 1: point five three seven nine on the tenure. It's about

214
00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:00,560
Speaker 1: ready to go through the three am low yield we

215
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:05,920
Speaker 1: saw on the ten year gold of fourteen ounce. And

216
00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:08,560
Speaker 1: I haven't even had the courage Dot cast to look

217
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,520
Speaker 1: at Apple. Let's at the time, Dot left, give me

218
00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:15,640
Speaker 1: a reason why you are short, Tim cook wellis is

219
00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:18,320
Speaker 1: an unpopular view and I've taken a lot of heat

220
00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,880
Speaker 1: on this one. My view is very simple, that the

221
00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:25,240
Speaker 1: company is over owned, that it's a mature hardware company,

222
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:29,640
Speaker 1: It's serving a mature high end smartphone market. It's average

223
00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:33,360
Speaker 1: selling prices close to six eight dollars per unit compared

224
00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:37,040
Speaker 1: to its peers of under three hundred dollars, exposing them

225
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,680
Speaker 1: the commoditization of their product. Yeah, they're holding a lot

226
00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:44,400
Speaker 1: of cash, but less than many belief. Apple has most

227
00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,440
Speaker 1: of its money overseas. They have to pay big taxes

228
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:52,160
Speaker 1: to repatriate it, and markets don't value cash as a

229
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:56,680
Speaker 1: dollar on a dollar. Typically it's valued at seventy and

230
00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:01,760
Speaker 1: add the over strongly agree, strongly agree. The final thing

231
00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:03,800
Speaker 1: is that the last and the most important thing is

232
00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,360
Speaker 1: the last important product upgrade cycle is now over for Apple.

233
00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:10,800
Speaker 1: I don't believe that earnings that the peak earnings in

234
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,760
Speaker 1: two thousand and fifteen for Apple will be eclipse for

235
00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:17,040
Speaker 1: years and maybe ever. How do you know when to

236
00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:23,360
Speaker 1: get out of a short? Already you've made money. Apple's

237
00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:25,640
Speaker 1: not going to zero. Let's assume it's not a short

238
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,800
Speaker 1: like that. But how do you know when to exit

239
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:32,200
Speaker 1: something You're You've been right on your smart my. You

240
00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,840
Speaker 1: know I average into shorts, but I start getting more

241
00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:39,720
Speaker 1: aggressive to answer your question when I see investor sentiment

242
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:44,240
Speaker 1: moved so far to the optimistic extreme that was the

243
00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:49,000
Speaker 1: case in Apple. UM, you know you're you're Bloomberg and

244
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:53,800
Speaker 1: your competitives. The NBAC and Fox had um commentary on

245
00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:56,200
Speaker 1: Apple for almost an hour a day a year ago,

246
00:15:56,320 --> 00:16:01,440
Speaker 1: right at the peak. I don't disagree on product and

247
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,520
Speaker 1: whiz bang and all that interesting story. Doug Cass, thank

248
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:06,520
Speaker 1: you so much, great honor to have you on your

249
00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,840
Speaker 1: this day of market. To wee Mr Cass with a

250
00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:13,760
Speaker 1: look look within his research for his article on Deutsche Bank.

251
00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:17,200
Speaker 1: Whether you agree or disagree, it is something, Mr Cass

252
00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 1: is Deutsche Bank the canary in the coal mine. The

253
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:25,200
Speaker 1: down negative one fourteen seventeen thousand five D twenty five.

254
00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,240
Speaker 1: The picks up a good one point seven nine figures.

255
00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 1: I look for that elevate twenty one point nine three,

256
00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:36,600
Speaker 1: the yield plunging one point five three six three. We're

257
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 1: right at our three a m lows for the US

258
00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 1: ten year, the US two years through point six seven

259
00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:48,360
Speaker 1: point six six seven three, the German two year sitting

260
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:52,440
Speaker 1: at lows negative zero point six zero six A. Yen

261
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:54,800
Speaker 1: one oh four eighty nine, looking for one oh three

262
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,800
Speaker 1: again and yen, we're not there. You're at one eleven

263
00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:05,720
Speaker 1: sixty gas one sixty on euro dollar sterling on. It's

264
00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,000
Speaker 1: been lower than that, weaker than that this morning as well.

265
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:16,240
Speaker 1: But again the tenure one point five three and out

266
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:19,000
Speaker 1: of the news from New York is Michael Barr, Thank

267
00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,399
Speaker 1: you very much. This hour of surveillance is brought to

268
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,600
Speaker 1: you by Mount kisco Vovo. Visit Mount kisco Vovo dot com.

269
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,840
Speaker 1: Were breaking news. The cockpit voice recorder of an egypt

270
00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,320
Speaker 1: airplane that crashed last month has been found and pulled

271
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 1: out of the Mediterranean Sea. Egypt air Flight eight oh

272
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,560
Speaker 1: four was heading from Paris to Cairo when it plunged

273
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,639
Speaker 1: into the sea. All sixty six people on board were killed.

274
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 1: The data recorder could provide the tails as to what

275
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,560
Speaker 1: brought down the air are Egypt's Investigation Committee says the

276
00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:51,720
Speaker 1: so called black box has been damaged, but that the

277
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,840
Speaker 1: vessels searching for the wreckage has managed to safely pull

278
00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,119
Speaker 1: the memory unit, which is the most important part of

279
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 1: the recorder. CIA Director John Brennan is updating allmakers on

280
00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,160
Speaker 1: Capitol Hill today on the Islamic State group. Brennon before

281
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,920
Speaker 1: the Senate Intelligence Committee says Islamic State militants are training

282
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,679
Speaker 1: and trying to deploy operatives for further attacks on the

283
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:16,280
Speaker 1: West End will rely more on guerrilla style tactics to

284
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 1: compensate for their territorial losses. President Obama will head to Orlando,

285
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:24,160
Speaker 1: Florida today. The President, along with Vice President Joe Biden,

286
00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,960
Speaker 1: will offer support to the community hit hard by a

287
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,080
Speaker 1: mass shooting at a gay nightclub Sunday that left forty

288
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 1: nine people dead and fifty three others wounded. Global News

289
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four

290
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,200
Speaker 1: hundred journalists and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus

291
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 1: around the world. I'm Michael Barrent, Tom Michael, thanks so much.

292
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,200
Speaker 1: Sit down negative one twelve one point nine time about

293
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,760
Speaker 1: ready to get to a twenty two print the yield

294
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:51,920
Speaker 1: coming in one point five three per cent from New

295
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 1: York Michael McKee and Tom Keane with Marcuson to move

296
00:18:54,840 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 1: more data checks Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg's Avalance brought to you

297
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:06,679
Speaker 1: by Commonwealth Financial Network. But it's time to change the conversation.

298
00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,159
Speaker 1: Talk with a broker dealer r I A that is

299
00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,240
Speaker 1: ready to listen. Call eight six six or six two

300
00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 1: thirty six GADE or visit Commonwealth dot com to learn