1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:05,280
Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action awesome.

3
00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:08,000
Speaker 3: All right.

4
00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:13,000
Speaker 2: Here we go the growing in Joe Spear catch.

5
00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,120
Speaker 1: So I'm saying it's a catch touch down.

6
00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,600
Speaker 2: And we'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

7
00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:19,479
Speaker 2: but they go to wind.

8
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,760
Speaker 1: That's incredible.

9
00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,320
Speaker 3: Big banks, all banks. I like to make money. All right.

10
00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,440
Speaker 1: This is the ultimate kabak if you want to pack

11
00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:32,839
Speaker 1: and we are underway.

12
00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,760
Speaker 4: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host today,

13
00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:40,680
Speaker 4: Brendan glas Sheen, and I'm joined by Action NFL experts

14
00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,440
Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson and Jill Gallant.

15
00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:45,800
Speaker 1: Both of these guys will be joining.

16
00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:50,839
Speaker 4: Me this trio for a weekly Monday NFL recap episodes

17
00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,840
Speaker 4: that will air all season long during the NFL season.

18
00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,000
Speaker 4: We'll recap the Sunday Action look ahead to Monday Night

19
00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:00,280
Speaker 4: football and then also give our look ahead hot read

20
00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:03,320
Speaker 4: picks for the week ahead. So we're off and running.

21
00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:07,080
Speaker 4: Season begins two weeks from today as we record this episode.

22
00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:10,720
Speaker 4: Today's show is a special one, folks, the Action Network's

23
00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,840
Speaker 4: annual NFL Awards Best Bets episode.

24
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:15,520
Speaker 1: Can't wait to get into it.

25
00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,640
Speaker 4: We'll tee up Brandon Anderson first, since he's been with

26
00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:20,880
Speaker 4: Action for a while. Jill is new to the team,

27
00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,280
Speaker 4: and pretty soon, Jill, I won't be saying that, but

28
00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,080
Speaker 4: just to give folks an understanding that you're new to

29
00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:26,600
Speaker 4: the team, but you've done a great job coming over

30
00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:27,200
Speaker 4: from FtM.

31
00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:29,679
Speaker 1: But Brandon, special time of year for you.

32
00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,360
Speaker 4: Specifically you dive into this and we'll go through your

33
00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,600
Speaker 4: historical context, but it's a fun time of year to

34
00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:35,880
Speaker 4: discuss the stuff.

35
00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's one of my favorites. The preseason. You know,

36
00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:42,440
Speaker 3: we're all undefeated right now, so anyone can win every award,

37
00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:44,800
Speaker 3: any team can win the Super Bowl. You get to

38
00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,160
Speaker 3: dream a little bit and you get to really sprinkle

39
00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,360
Speaker 3: on some of these long shots and get your futures in.

40
00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,880
Speaker 3: I'm the future specialist, so we'll be playing a few

41
00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:56,000
Speaker 3: of the favorites here, but a lot more of the underdogs,

42
00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:58,800
Speaker 3: the long shots. Get to build your portfolio and get

43
00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:00,800
Speaker 3: fired up for the season. I think it is my

44
00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,760
Speaker 3: first time talking football on a podcast since the Super

45
00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,040
Speaker 3: Bowl one, so I am chomping at the bed and

46
00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:06,720
Speaker 3: am ready to go.

47
00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,120
Speaker 2: It's a natural progression because I think with the off

48
00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,520
Speaker 2: season we can manifest a lot of crazy long shots

49
00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:12,919
Speaker 2: in our head.

50
00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:14,480
Speaker 3: Because of the fact that it is.

51
00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:17,280
Speaker 2: Preseason and we haven't seen that Week one result that's

52
00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:19,640
Speaker 2: going to just eventually kick us in the throat and

53
00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:21,800
Speaker 2: make us realize, wait a minute, that was maybe the

54
00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,160
Speaker 2: wrong read. But I think that's the best part about

55
00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,040
Speaker 2: betting on preseason betting in the futures market is that

56
00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:28,720
Speaker 2: we can come up with a lot of really good

57
00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,960
Speaker 2: ideas and we can really really deliver on a salesman

58
00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,720
Speaker 2: aspect here and be able to give some good options.

59
00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:35,400
Speaker 1: A lot to get to.

60
00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:38,680
Speaker 4: On this episode, we'll get to offensive and defensive rookie

61
00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:40,960
Speaker 4: of the year, Coach of the Year in the NFL.

62
00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,480
Speaker 4: That's always fascinating because well it might not necessarily go

63
00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:46,520
Speaker 4: to the best team, but the coach that does the

64
00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,359
Speaker 4: best job. Of course, comeback player of the year, that's

65
00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:53,920
Speaker 4: always fascinating, the great story typically in the NFL offensive

66
00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,440
Speaker 4: and defensive players of the year. So that's all on

67
00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,440
Speaker 4: the table. We will spend the majority of this episode,

68
00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,120
Speaker 4: though often time, on the most valuable player in the NFL.

69
00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:07,520
Speaker 4: The last nine NFL MVPs have been a top two

70
00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:11,959
Speaker 4: seed in the NFL playoffs in each of their respective conferences.

71
00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,720
Speaker 4: That's typically how it goes based on the last decade,

72
00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:17,200
Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson before we get into picks, and we'll do

73
00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:20,680
Speaker 4: this throughout the episode, Folks, getting into each discussion on

74
00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,280
Speaker 4: these awards, Brandon will give us historical context on what

75
00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,400
Speaker 4: else typically plays out when it comes to we'll start

76
00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:28,040
Speaker 4: with MVP.

77
00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:31,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, really, the truth is, we all know who

78
00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,440
Speaker 3: the MVP is. We know that it is a quarterbacks award,

79
00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:36,400
Speaker 3: and we know that it is a winner's award. Really

80
00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,840
Speaker 3: that set you need to be a quarterback. Fourteen of

81
00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,800
Speaker 3: the last fifteen MVPs have been quarterbacks, Adrian Peterson the

82
00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:46,680
Speaker 3: only exception the last non quarterback or running back with

83
00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,920
Speaker 3: Lawrence Taylor nineteen eighty six. So it is a quarterbacks

84
00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,000
Speaker 3: the league. You gotta be a quarterback. You gotta win games.

85
00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:56,480
Speaker 3: You gotta win probably thirteen plus games average fourteen point

86
00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,520
Speaker 3: one win pace. Remember run a seventeen win schedule. Now

87
00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:03,440
Speaker 3: seventeen games, and like you said, Brandon, you probably got

88
00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:05,360
Speaker 3: to be on the one seed or at least close

89
00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,760
Speaker 3: to it. Thirteen of our fourteen quarterbacks during the stretch

90
00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:11,360
Speaker 3: have been a top two seed, and eleven of the

91
00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:14,520
Speaker 3: fourteen have been theull one seed. So one other thing

92
00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,520
Speaker 3: to note too, we love repeat winners here in that

93
00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:21,760
Speaker 3: fourteen stretch of quarterbacks, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers,

94
00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,760
Speaker 3: three MVPs each for each of them, and they all

95
00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:28,599
Speaker 3: had won or three repeat MVPs for them. So we

96
00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:32,440
Speaker 3: love our quarterbacks. We love quarterback winners Top two and EPA.

97
00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,760
Speaker 3: So that's something keep an eye on as the season progresses.

98
00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,240
Speaker 3: But yeah, we're looking for the quarterback of the winning team.

99
00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:39,400
Speaker 3: It's really that simple.

100
00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:42,480
Speaker 4: Two of those three names, of course, are still playing

101
00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,479
Speaker 4: in the NFL, Brady and Rogers. But I get the

102
00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,480
Speaker 4: feeling here as we begin and dive deep into this

103
00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,360
Speaker 4: conversation that we're going to discuss some names that have

104
00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:53,039
Speaker 4: not won this award, and we're going to start with

105
00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,240
Speaker 4: the favorite, the betting favorite right now to win MVP,

106
00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,359
Speaker 4: Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills. They are also the

107
00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,560
Speaker 4: favorite to win the Super Bowl. It makes a lot

108
00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,360
Speaker 4: of sense. Josh Allen is at plus seven hundred. I'm

109
00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,480
Speaker 4: sure we'll also use this as a way to discuss

110
00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:07,279
Speaker 4: each award, but we'll.

111
00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,400
Speaker 1: Start with you, Jill. Should we be betting the favorite?

112
00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,960
Speaker 4: Should Josh Allen at this number at plus seven hundred

113
00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,560
Speaker 4: right now as we sit here, today, should we be

114
00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:15,279
Speaker 4: betting Josh.

115
00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:16,880
Speaker 3: Allen not at this stage.

116
00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:20,159
Speaker 2: The part of the thing too, with the MVP market

117
00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,960
Speaker 2: is such a week to week movement, and even just

118
00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,520
Speaker 2: like a two or three game stretch, you could see

119
00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:28,720
Speaker 2: odds very, very heavily. You know, even last year Josh

120
00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:30,680
Speaker 2: Allen was at a point where he was a favorite,

121
00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:32,640
Speaker 2: and then near the latter part of the season he

122
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,280
Speaker 2: started to see Buffalo struggle a little bit, and then

123
00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,039
Speaker 2: he was back in the conversation by the time we

124
00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,000
Speaker 2: got to week fourteen and week fifteen. Why I'm saying

125
00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:41,800
Speaker 2: that is that if you play your cards right and

126
00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:43,760
Speaker 2: you hold out a little bit longer, you may be

127
00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,320
Speaker 2: able to get that favorite at much better odds.

128
00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:48,599
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, you have a follow up thought on that.

129
00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. Look, Buffalo has the first game of

130
00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,599
Speaker 3: the season, but they're at Los Angeles the Super Bowl

131
00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,440
Speaker 3: champion RAMS, and you could be on the first game

132
00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:58,479
Speaker 3: of the season. You could be zero to one for

133
00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:00,920
Speaker 3: again an award that I have a guy that's gonna

134
00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,760
Speaker 3: win thirteen fourteen games, So you might have a chance

135
00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:06,919
Speaker 3: to on opening night after the first game, get Josh

136
00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,800
Speaker 3: Allen at a better number. Already, if you wait, the

137
00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:14,080
Speaker 3: Bills open with the Rams, Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, Steelers, Chiefs.

138
00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,000
Speaker 3: That's a tough opening schedule. There's a very good chance

139
00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,080
Speaker 3: you're gonna get a BILO spot in there if you

140
00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,400
Speaker 3: do want Alan. And I think too, there's the narrative

141
00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,520
Speaker 3: with Alan is like, well, he's close, He's the next guy.

142
00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:28,400
Speaker 3: You know, he had the big playoff run, he finished

143
00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,640
Speaker 3: second a couple of years ago, and we kind of

144
00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,479
Speaker 3: think like, well, he's the next guy up with MVP's

145
00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,400
Speaker 3: what my research showed is we don't really do it

146
00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,920
Speaker 3: that way. If you are Brady Peyton, Rodgers just keep

147
00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,200
Speaker 3: on winning a lot of times. But if you think

148
00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:44,599
Speaker 3: of these guys like Matt Ryan, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton,

149
00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,320
Speaker 3: We've had in the last decade four guys that won

150
00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:51,200
Speaker 3: MVP who never got another vote any other year for MVP,

151
00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:53,360
Speaker 3: it's like a one hit wonder. You gave it your

152
00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:56,159
Speaker 3: shot and you're out. And I do wonder if there's

153
00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:58,800
Speaker 3: a chance Josh Allen already had his MVP season and

154
00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,440
Speaker 3: just didn't win it, that that maybe that was the

155
00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:03,320
Speaker 3: best that we'll get from him as far as MVP

156
00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,839
Speaker 3: of voting. So I think it's a no bet where

157
00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:07,719
Speaker 3: we're at right now.

158
00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,040
Speaker 4: It's an excellent point. I'm glad you brought that up.

159
00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:12,200
Speaker 4: The Rams, of course are home. They are graining Super

160
00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,160
Speaker 4: Bowl champions so they host the Buffalo Bills in just

161
00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,400
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks. It's a great point, and I

162
00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:21,200
Speaker 4: think with this sport, especially the way the schedule builds,

163
00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:25,440
Speaker 4: is a big factor into how you handicap a prospective

164
00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:26,880
Speaker 4: future ticket.

165
00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,080
Speaker 1: So let's get into some picks.

166
00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,600
Speaker 4: And how we look at the market now in this

167
00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:35,400
Speaker 4: preseason before the year begins. Jill Glant will start with you,

168
00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:37,800
Speaker 4: who is your MVP pick as of today.

169
00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,640
Speaker 2: I'm going to go have to go with another LA squad,

170
00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:43,880
Speaker 2: but it's the Los Angeles Chargers. I'm going with Justin Herbers.

171
00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:47,440
Speaker 2: Really a natural progression of his career. He finished last

172
00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:51,760
Speaker 2: season second in total passing yards, thirty eight touchdowns, fifteen interceptions.

173
00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,760
Speaker 2: That ladder stat is a little bit of a making

174
00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:56,760
Speaker 2: me a little bit leery about it, but this is

175
00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:00,280
Speaker 2: the reason being is a quarterback hasn't won MVP with

176
00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,920
Speaker 2: more than ten interceptions since Peyton Manning in twenty thirteen. Now,

177
00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:07,120
Speaker 2: he also threw fifty five touchdowns that year, So you

178
00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,240
Speaker 2: ask you you have to like break a record if

179
00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:11,360
Speaker 2: you're still going to have ten interceptions. I don't want

180
00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:13,160
Speaker 2: to kind of put that kind of level on Herbert.

181
00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,680
Speaker 2: But that being said, I don't think it's a coincidence

182
00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:17,960
Speaker 2: as well that for of the top five options for

183
00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:22,720
Speaker 2: MVP odds in Brady Mahomes, Herbert, Josh Allen, they were

184
00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,360
Speaker 2: also the top four quarterbacks in total pass attempts in

185
00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,760
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one. So for me, that's the kind of

186
00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,160
Speaker 2: direction that I'll be looking at, is where are these

187
00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:33,680
Speaker 2: passing offenses coming from? And I also think the Chargers

188
00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,000
Speaker 2: as well, because of how the AFC West is stacked.

189
00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,440
Speaker 2: If they win that division, that's just going to elevate

190
00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,280
Speaker 2: his status. So especially with this win totals, you know

191
00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,040
Speaker 2: of the Chargers sitting out around ten and a half

192
00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,040
Speaker 2: depending on the book. So Justin Herbert is my best

193
00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:47,880
Speaker 2: bet to win MVP in twenty twenty two.

194
00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,160
Speaker 1: Oh and Brandon Staley, we'll give us some favors too.

195
00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:51,959
Speaker 4: They'll go for it on fourth down inside their own

196
00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,160
Speaker 4: twenty and if he completes those it helps his case.

197
00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:55,840
Speaker 1: So thank you Brandon Staley in advance.

198
00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,880
Speaker 4: If Justin Herbert is an MVP candidate in late December,

199
00:08:58,920 --> 00:08:59,760
Speaker 4: we'll stay in the AFC.

200
00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,120
Speaker 3: Brandon, Yeah, that's exactly it. I do like Herbert. The

201
00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,679
Speaker 3: biggest problem for me is I like Pat Mahomes and

202
00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:08,480
Speaker 3: the Chiefs a little better. And you're almost certainly gonna

203
00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,120
Speaker 3: have to win your division because we know you're gonna

204
00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:11,880
Speaker 3: need to contend for the one or two seed. And

205
00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:14,200
Speaker 3: we've got another division pick here soon. So man, that

206
00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,720
Speaker 3: AFC West is loaded with Pat Mahomes, like he's kind

207
00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:19,960
Speaker 3: of the boring pick. It's like, oh, yeah, okay, Mahomes, Well,

208
00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:22,800
Speaker 3: we know he's good. Let's get the new exciting guy. Well,

209
00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:26,320
Speaker 3: he's boring because he's great. All four seasons he's played,

210
00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,400
Speaker 3: the Chiefs have finished top two in offensive DVA, so

211
00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:33,360
Speaker 3: they're guaranteed elite offense. Mahomes has finished top two in EPA,

212
00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,360
Speaker 3: and they've won at least twelve games every season. They're

213
00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:38,920
Speaker 3: constantly in the mix for the one seed and AFC

214
00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,760
Speaker 3: Championship game. And he really he only has gotten votes

215
00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,559
Speaker 3: once in the last years since he won. But that's

216
00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:47,520
Speaker 3: kind of how this goes with MVP. With guys like

217
00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,120
Speaker 3: Brady and Rodgers. They won their MVP and then it

218
00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:51,560
Speaker 3: was a little bit of a gap. We got used

219
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,720
Speaker 3: to it until they were kind of due again, and

220
00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,480
Speaker 3: I feel like that's where Mahomes is at. Look, it's

221
00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:59,000
Speaker 3: very simple for me, this is the best player in football.

222
00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,600
Speaker 3: I think we basically all agree on that. He's on

223
00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:05,000
Speaker 3: maybe the best team with one of the best offensive lines,

224
00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:09,439
Speaker 3: the best coaching staff, maybe the best offense is football

225
00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:13,240
Speaker 3: in the modern NFL. It all lines up and on

226
00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,480
Speaker 3: top of it. What I love this year is you

227
00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:17,840
Speaker 3: have a narrative. We didn't have a narrative the last

228
00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,040
Speaker 3: couple of years. This year, Tyreek Hill is gone. So

229
00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,720
Speaker 3: on the one hand, while I'm a little worried how

230
00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,520
Speaker 3: will they do without Tyreek Kill, I'm not so worried.

231
00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:29,160
Speaker 3: We add a lot of talent. We've got Sky Moore,

232
00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,839
Speaker 3: the Ricky there, Juju Smith Schuster, Marcus veldis Scantling, There's

233
00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,400
Speaker 3: a lot of other receivers. Travis Kelcey is still there.

234
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,640
Speaker 3: That was arguably the top receiver anyway for them. But

235
00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:42,160
Speaker 3: now there's a narrative. Now It's like, Man, Mahomes is

236
00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:46,080
Speaker 3: still as good even without Tyreek Hill. You love the narrative.

237
00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,960
Speaker 3: You love how good they are Mahomes is great. My

238
00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,240
Speaker 3: one hesitation tough opening schedule, so you might be able

239
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,000
Speaker 3: to buy in a bit later. But really, Kansas City's

240
00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:57,200
Speaker 3: schedule is tough all year. It's been tough for years.

241
00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,880
Speaker 3: It hasn't stopped them. I love Mahomes at plus nine hundred.

242
00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,439
Speaker 4: Three of the first four on the road for the

243
00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:07,800
Speaker 4: Kansas City Chiefs at Cardinals, Chargers, Home, Colts, Bucks, then Raiders, Bills, Niners, Titans,

244
00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:09,280
Speaker 4: that is how their schedule opens.

245
00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,160
Speaker 1: Great point about Tyreek Hill.

246
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,320
Speaker 4: It makes me think of Lebron in the East for

247
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:17,320
Speaker 4: years using an NBA reference. If you dominate with I

248
00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,640
Speaker 4: don't know, Matthew della Vadova as your second best player,

249
00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:22,800
Speaker 4: that makes you look really good. Not to say that

250
00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,439
Speaker 4: Mahome still has plenty of weapons, no question. So just

251
00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:27,960
Speaker 4: to kind of round out this discussion, why not mention

252
00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:32,400
Speaker 4: another player, another quarterback in this division. Russell Wilson has

253
00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,600
Speaker 4: never won this award at plus fourteen hundred Offensive Coach

254
00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:37,840
Speaker 4: for the first time in his career. He's got Nathaniel

255
00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:40,600
Speaker 4: Hackett as his head coach this season, coming over from

256
00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:44,400
Speaker 4: Green Bay. You've also had a situation where they're getting

257
00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:46,839
Speaker 4: a little slightly banged up. He's got a great offensive line,

258
00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,600
Speaker 4: a better offensive line than he may ever have in

259
00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,160
Speaker 4: his career in Denver, so I thought it was worth

260
00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,040
Speaker 4: mentioning your boy here has got a ticket on Russell Wilson.

261
00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:56,800
Speaker 1: That's why I wanted to jump in on the conversation.

262
00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:59,840
Speaker 4: But I think what we all can agree on, though,

263
00:11:59,880 --> 00:12:02,080
Speaker 4: is if you've got to win this division. Though I

264
00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:06,360
Speaker 4: think the division winner of these three, Herbert Mahomes Wilson,

265
00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:10,280
Speaker 4: they in all likelihood they would emerge as the betting

266
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:13,240
Speaker 4: favorite if indeed they have a two game lead going.

267
00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:14,840
Speaker 1: Into December, for instance. Possibly.

268
00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,720
Speaker 3: But you like about Denver too, is the Broncos start

269
00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:21,000
Speaker 3: with Seattle in Houston the first two weeks. Russell Wilson

270
00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:22,880
Speaker 3: just got over there. That is a great chance to

271
00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:25,120
Speaker 3: go two and zero, bam, two huge wins out of

272
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,400
Speaker 3: the gates and get everyone talking. And you love to

273
00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:29,719
Speaker 3: be the front runner. You might get a cash out opportunity.

274
00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,160
Speaker 3: You also get the Jets and the Jaguars in the

275
00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:34,880
Speaker 3: first half of the season. Russell Wilson traditionally has been

276
00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,160
Speaker 3: a really good first half quarterback. He hasn't been as

277
00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:39,880
Speaker 3: great late, and I'm not so sure how it holds

278
00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:41,920
Speaker 3: up when the schedule tightens up and all these division

279
00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,360
Speaker 3: games come in, I think we all three would agree

280
00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,800
Speaker 3: whoever comes out of this division is going to have

281
00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:50,160
Speaker 3: a quarterback that is absolutely on the MVP bow at

282
00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:52,040
Speaker 3: the very least. It's just which one will it be?

283
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:56,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, Brandon, I was going to say with the divisional aspect, basically,

284
00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:58,360
Speaker 2: if you're looking at it comparing it to divisional odds,

285
00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:00,240
Speaker 2: like right now, you have the Chiefs around like plus

286
00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:02,520
Speaker 2: one forty plus one fifty, you have the Chargers around

287
00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:05,360
Speaker 2: plus two twenty five, Broncos around plus four to fifty,

288
00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:08,120
Speaker 2: and then you've got the Raiders coming in last, even

289
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:09,720
Speaker 2: though as great as a team, they are at plus

290
00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:10,360
Speaker 2: six fifty.

291
00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:11,079
Speaker 1: All I was.

292
00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:12,800
Speaker 2: Saying is that if you think one of those teams

293
00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:15,000
Speaker 2: is going to win that division, you might as well

294
00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,200
Speaker 2: just take their MVP odds for the quarterback. Because of

295
00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:20,560
Speaker 2: how highly regarded this division is entering this season.

296
00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,280
Speaker 4: How about some long shots at this for this award,

297
00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:26,520
Speaker 4: it's mostly quarterbacks. Again, as we said off the top,

298
00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:30,400
Speaker 4: you've got Lamar Kyler, Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr speaking of

299
00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,560
Speaker 4: this division, Trey Lance if he pops in his first

300
00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,760
Speaker 4: year as a full time starter, Matt Ryan Newholme, Kirk

301
00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:40,120
Speaker 4: Cousins an offensive coach. Then we have Jonathan Taylor, who

302
00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,800
Speaker 4: we can't discount what he means. Maybe he has the

303
00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,640
Speaker 4: Adrian Peterson campaign of about a decade ago. If Trevor

304
00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,920
Speaker 4: Lawrence has a year two leap, If Derrick Henry is

305
00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:52,360
Speaker 4: as healthy as we think he is after having his

306
00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:56,360
Speaker 4: season not cut short but slightly hindered by the end,

307
00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:58,240
Speaker 4: how about a long shot from Brandon then will go

308
00:13:58,280 --> 00:13:59,240
Speaker 4: to Jim Yeah, I'll.

309
00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:00,960
Speaker 3: Give you a two quick, real quick, and they're very

310
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,480
Speaker 3: similar cases. I want my long shot come out of

311
00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:06,400
Speaker 3: the NFC. That's where the conference is much more open.

312
00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:09,680
Speaker 3: I've got similar cases. I like Hurts and I like

313
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:12,000
Speaker 3: Lance Lance a little better because we're getting four thou

314
00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:13,000
Speaker 3: forty to one.

315
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:13,360
Speaker 1: There.

316
00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:15,599
Speaker 3: It's a sophomore season leap. We've seen that from a

317
00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,199
Speaker 3: lot of guys. Kyle Shanahan gets the best out of

318
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,680
Speaker 3: his quarterbacks. We don't know what Trey Lance will be yet,

319
00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,200
Speaker 3: but we've seen what he's done with Jimmy Garoppolo, with

320
00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:26,280
Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins, with other guys in the past. He elevates

321
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,200
Speaker 3: them to those elite EPA type numbers, and if you

322
00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,120
Speaker 3: can do that with Tree Lance and then add in

323
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,400
Speaker 3: the rushing add in San Francisco as a threat to

324
00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:36,760
Speaker 3: win the division, maybe come out of the NFC. I

325
00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:38,800
Speaker 3: like that there. I like that, but actually a little

326
00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:41,400
Speaker 3: better than Russell Wilson. I think it's a similar sort

327
00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,400
Speaker 3: of case in the excitement factor, but you're second in

328
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,040
Speaker 3: the division, A set a third. You've got a little

329
00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,080
Speaker 3: last competition there. Jalen Hurts a little bit more open

330
00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,720
Speaker 3: division against similar case. Both these guys are going to

331
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,000
Speaker 3: add in the running stats, so you get a little

332
00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,000
Speaker 3: bit of a discount on the stats. You need more

333
00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,760
Speaker 3: of the Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson type season, and

334
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,080
Speaker 3: it's effectively your two for him as well, since on

335
00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,400
Speaker 3: Star as a rookie, he goes have the easiest schedule.

336
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,000
Speaker 3: Those are my two NFC sleepers. So Hurts at twenty

337
00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,280
Speaker 3: five to one, Lance forty to one. I like those

338
00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:10,360
Speaker 3: pro long shots. I like those picks too.

339
00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna I was initially looking at Derek Carr,

340
00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:15,800
Speaker 2: but at twenty five to one or even thirty to one,

341
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:19,040
Speaker 2: depending on the book. Honestly, those odds just aren't correlating

342
00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:20,720
Speaker 2: to a potential result when you look at their win

343
00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,200
Speaker 2: total in their divisional odds, whereas you look at the

344
00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,680
Speaker 2: Ravens on the other hand, with Lamar Jackson sitting around

345
00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:28,840
Speaker 2: twenty to one, they are favored to win the AFC

346
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:30,560
Speaker 2: North and they're not going to have that type of

347
00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,080
Speaker 2: injury luck like they had last season. Like he missed

348
00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 2: five games last year, the Ravens were one and four.

349
00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,920
Speaker 2: In those games, they were eight and three, like before

350
00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,000
Speaker 2: the injury that he suffered to like when he was

351
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,160
Speaker 2: playing Cleveland last year. As well, just from an odds

352
00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,200
Speaker 2: tracking standpoint, entering the season, he had twelve to one

353
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,560
Speaker 2: odds to win MVP before he got hurt, and he

354
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,280
Speaker 2: was plus eight hundred. So sitting right now at twenty

355
00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,080
Speaker 2: to one for a former MVP, especially like he's still

356
00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,280
Speaker 2: in his prime, I think that's a pretty solid value.

357
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:56,320
Speaker 1: Okay, let's move on.

358
00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:59,800
Speaker 4: So a great discussion on Most Valuable Player, Let's move

359
00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:03,440
Speaker 4: on to offensive Rookie of the Year, Brandon, what's the

360
00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:06,480
Speaker 4: lay of the land as it pertains to history and

361
00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:08,040
Speaker 4: who typically wins this award?

362
00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:10,120
Speaker 3: So Rookie of the Year, it's best if we can

363
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,240
Speaker 3: get a quarterbacks it'd be tough this year. This was

364
00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,400
Speaker 3: a really weak quarterback draft. But nine of the last

365
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,280
Speaker 3: eighteen rookies of the year offensively, we're quarterbacks two of

366
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,600
Speaker 3: the last three, three of the last six, basically about

367
00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 3: half of them. Out of those eighteen, three receivers, six

368
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,080
Speaker 3: running backs, so it's a bit spread out. This is

369
00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:29,000
Speaker 3: more a stats thing than a winning thing. Out of

370
00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:31,680
Speaker 3: our last twelve rookies of the year, only three of

371
00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 3: them won ten games. In fact, over half of them

372
00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:36,800
Speaker 3: were under five hundred that season. So this is not

373
00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:39,440
Speaker 3: about you got to come in and immediately transform your team.

374
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 3: We just care about putting up some numbers. Get your volume,

375
00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,720
Speaker 3: get your numbers. One other thing that I noted, very

376
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,400
Speaker 3: likely you got to be a first round pick. Fifteen

377
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:50,600
Speaker 3: of our last eighteen rookies of the year were first

378
00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,480
Speaker 3: round picks. In fact, fourteen of the eighteen were top

379
00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,800
Speaker 3: twelve picks, so we are not shooting too far down

380
00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,760
Speaker 3: the draft order. Turns out, we know who's good. That's

381
00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,680
Speaker 3: why you're getting drafted that high. You get drafted that high,

382
00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:04,600
Speaker 3: you're getting playing time a little bit more out of

383
00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:06,880
Speaker 3: the gates. You've probably gone to a team that needs

384
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,760
Speaker 3: a little more help from you, so it's fun to

385
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,800
Speaker 3: look down the list. This is an interesting draft though,

386
00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 3: because this was more of an open and a more

387
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:18,199
Speaker 3: defensive draft, So it's a tough year for this one.

388
00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,040
Speaker 4: The elephant in the room too, about your point about

389
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,360
Speaker 4: preferably a quarterback comes down to Mike Tomlin's decision if

390
00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:25,800
Speaker 4: it's going to be Kenny Pickett.

391
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:27,520
Speaker 1: Because if it's Kenny Pickett.

392
00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:30,159
Speaker 4: And Pittsburgh with those weapons, the other offensive line is

393
00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:31,000
Speaker 4: extremely shaky.

394
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:33,440
Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. But if you believe in.

395
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,119
Speaker 4: Mike Tomlin, always a winning season with Mike Tomlin as

396
00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,240
Speaker 4: the head coach and the way they draft receiver ins Pittsburgh.

397
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,080
Speaker 4: If Kenny Pickett, even if he doesn't start Week one,

398
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 4: if he gets in there by week two or three,

399
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:47,320
Speaker 4: maybe there's an opportunity to buy in on Kenny Pickett.

400
00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 1: But I get the feeling the more sure thing.

401
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 4: Now, as we discussed today, we're not going to headquarterback,

402
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:54,119
Speaker 4: so we'll.

403
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,400
Speaker 1: Start with Jill. Who do you like for offensive Rookie.

404
00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 3: Of the Year.

405
00:17:57,760 --> 00:17:59,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean it really does just talking about

406
00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 2: the Steelers, it really does depend about how we see

407
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 2: Mitch Trubisky and how he performs because there's a lot

408
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,840
Speaker 2: of offseason talk and he has mentioned in press conferences

409
00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 2: that he is going to be the starter.

410
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:10,960
Speaker 1: Take that with a grain of salt.

411
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 2: So I'm going with a pair of wide receivers that

412
00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:15,760
Speaker 2: are I'm going to hitch my wag into a pair

413
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:19,280
Speaker 2: of wide receivers that with quarterbacks I trust. So first

414
00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,520
Speaker 2: one is going to be Sky Moore at twelve to one.

415
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:23,399
Speaker 2: One of the reasons I was looking at is just

416
00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:25,840
Speaker 2: the way that the rookies have performed in this offense.

417
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:27,919
Speaker 2: So if you look back, even just with McCole Harbon,

418
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,639
Speaker 2: not quite the same skill set, but as a rookie

419
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,199
Speaker 2: scored seven touchdowns in this offense. He's gotten rave reviews

420
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 2: from the coaching staff. He'll likely have an elevated role

421
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 2: as the season goes on. Casey again is something I

422
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,120
Speaker 2: allude to at the top top five and passing attempts

423
00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,240
Speaker 2: as well. I think he's worth the look at twelve

424
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,520
Speaker 2: to one. And now somebody who's near and dear to

425
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,119
Speaker 2: my heart, we're gonna go with Jalen Tolbert sitting right

426
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,080
Speaker 2: now around twenty five to one. He's expected to be

427
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 2: wide receiver two out of the gate. It's an offense

428
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,040
Speaker 2: that's likely going to have to pass more as a

429
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 2: result of the recent news that we heard about Tyron

430
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,240
Speaker 2: Smith and how the run game may suffer as well.

431
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,159
Speaker 2: And he's replacing the Cedric Wilson role. In Cedric Wilson,

432
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 2: he wouldn't get a nice deal with Miami in the

433
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,320
Speaker 2: off season, But you have forty five catches and six touchdowns.

434
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,160
Speaker 2: Really has the wide receiver three in this offense. Let's

435
00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:13,119
Speaker 2: be real and Michael Gallup He's expected to miss around

436
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:16,320
Speaker 2: Week one, maybe meek week two, depending on how that

437
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 2: injury progresses, and it could be longer if that injury

438
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:21,640
Speaker 2: flares up. So I really like Jaylen Tolbert a twenty

439
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:23,399
Speaker 2: five to one, Sky Moore twelve to one.

440
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,400
Speaker 4: Mike McCarthy two is a play caller, a wonder two.

441
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:28,760
Speaker 4: A lot of this probably had to do with Aaron Rodgers,

442
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 4: but sometimes you'd get a receiver that came out of

443
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,919
Speaker 4: nowhere in Green Bay, and maybe some of the credit

444
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 4: goes to McCarthy, most if it goes to Rogers, but

445
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 4: maybe a receiver pops, especially with Amari Cooper now in Cleveland.

446
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 4: Brandon Anderson, who do you like for offensive rookie of

447
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:43,200
Speaker 4: the year at this stage.

448
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you, Brandon. I think that Pickett

449
00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 3: is probably the right play at some point, But I

450
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:49,399
Speaker 3: don't think he's the right player right now because his

451
00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:51,359
Speaker 3: odds are really only going to go down as he

452
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 3: likely doesn't start these first few weeks or you know,

453
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,879
Speaker 3: even into October potentially, so I do want to get

454
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 3: a position on him later. So I think right now

455
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,160
Speaker 3: you want to light on this market. But the guy

456
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 3: I like is if you played fantasy football, you know

457
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,919
Speaker 3: this name well already, Breese Hall. He's the guy that

458
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: is the number one fantasy pick in any rookie draft

459
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 3: running back for the Jets. He put up monster numbers.

460
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,439
Speaker 3: He is the clear best rookie running back here. Doesn't

461
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 3: really fit my profile that well, I'll admit, because he's

462
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 3: not a first round pick. He was four picks later,

463
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 3: and he's a running back. We haven't had his minia

464
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 3: those lately. That used to be where we went here,

465
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 3: But I'm taking a shot here. He had forty six

466
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 3: touchdowns the last two years in college. It's a big market,

467
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 3: so we know if he does well New York, you're

468
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 3: gonna get some attention there. Offense should be a lot

469
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,359
Speaker 3: better Mike Laflora. The offensive Cordner actually did pretty well

470
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 3: with really not a lot of talent last year. The

471
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,639
Speaker 3: line is a lot better. The receivers are getting better.

472
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 3: Let's be honest. Zach Wilson can hardly get worse when

473
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 3: he does play. So football outsiders loves bres Hall. They

474
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 3: compared him to a Dalvin Cook Ladanian Tomlinson level of prospect.

475
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,160
Speaker 3: That also clues us into his all around usage. He's

476
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 3: a receiver, he's a runner. You can get the touchdowns.

477
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,280
Speaker 3: He fits what a Rookie of the Year running back

478
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 3: looks like. So twelve toh one, I don't love it.

479
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,199
Speaker 3: I still want to get some other positions later on,

480
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 3: but I'm going to start with Reese Hall.

481
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:15,159
Speaker 4: Zach Wilson's injury also Robert Sala a lot of noise

482
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 4: around his job security. Perhaps there is more attention to

483
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,880
Speaker 4: running the football ball, control, control the clock here out

484
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 4: of the gate for the Jets, so they're not completely

485
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 4: falling on their faces by say the month of October.

486
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 4: We move on to defensive Rookie of the Year Brandon Historically,

487
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 4: what do we need to know about this award and

488
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:36,400
Speaker 4: who typically emerges?

489
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 3: So what's interesting about Defensive Rookie of the Year is

490
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 3: it's one of the very few award races here where

491
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 3: you actually want to bet on one of the favorites.

492
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 3: We haven't said that about the others. MVP recently get

493
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 3: long shots. Rookies of the Year get long shots. Defensive

494
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,200
Speaker 3: Rookie of the Year seven of the last ten plus

495
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 3: nine hundred or shorter at the start of the season.

496
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,239
Speaker 3: And that's because again we identify the right talent at

497
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 3: the top of the draft. Every day defensive Rookie of

498
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 3: the Year this century has been a top forty draft pick,

499
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 3: every single one of them, nineteen of twenty two in

500
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 3: the first round. Again, eighteen of them in the top fifteen.

501
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 3: So we are really limiting that these guys at the top.

502
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 3: They're getting playing time right away. They're playing and the

503
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 3: thing that they were wanting lately again not winning. You

504
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 3: don't have to come in and win right away, but

505
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 3: flashy plays, especially do you get after the passer? Do

506
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 3: you create some sacks? Six of our last defensive Rookie

507
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 3: of the Years had seven or more sacks, And that

508
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:31,919
Speaker 3: works really well this year's draft because we had some

509
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 3: big time pass rushers right at the top.

510
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, and he can even sing Michael Jackson. If you've

511
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 4: watched Hard Knocks, so you're in on Aiden.

512
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 3: Hutchinson, I am, yeah, Aiden Hutchinson number two pick in

513
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 3: the draft. Five of the last eleven rookies of the

514
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 3: year defensively were top three picks. That's about half of them.

515
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 3: Hutchinson was the guy that were expected to go number one.

516
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,639
Speaker 3: He had fourteen sacks last year Hard Knocks. You know

517
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:59,120
Speaker 3: he's in the culture conversation already. Also, I noted too,

518
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 3: the big has actually won five of the last six

519
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 3: defensive Rookies of the Year. So I don't know if

520
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 3: that's a thing. Maybe that's just noise, but certainly doesn't

521
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,640
Speaker 3: hurt my cause here plus four fifty, I don't bet

522
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 3: a lot of favorites, but in Hutchinson at four to fifty,

523
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 3: we know Trayvon Walker is raw the number one pick,

524
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 3: he might take some time. We know Keevon Thibodeau, the

525
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,679
Speaker 3: other guy up there, is injured and he's going to

526
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 3: be out to start the year. But I think you

527
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 3: can get any of those three guys. I wouldn't mind

528
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 3: getting a couple of them, but I'll start with just

529
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 3: Hutchinson alone. At four fifty. I think he's a good one.

530
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 4: Sometimes I forget when we now move on to Coach

531
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,360
Speaker 4: of the Year, it's like, oh, yeah, we can talk

532
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 4: about coaches in a positive way in this sport. Typically

533
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 4: it's like, oh, let's bet on the coach or coaches

534
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 4: that are going to get fired, because it's always about

535
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 4: half a dozen sometimes seven or eight that get fired

536
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 4: and it's probably going to happen again because these owners

537
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:55,199
Speaker 4: in this league, they've got no patience and understandably so

538
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,959
Speaker 4: they want to contend in the most popular sport in

539
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 4: North America. Coach of the Year and Anderson, what do

540
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 4: we need to know about this award and what the

541
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 4: track record is?

542
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 3: So this is really a most improved award. This is

543
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 3: not about the best coach. Otherwise Bill Belichick would just

544
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 3: be like a ten time Coach of the Year award.

545
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 3: So this is a who improved the most. Coach of

546
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 3: the year basically wins about four more games than last year,

547
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 3: sometimes way more than that, but at least four more.

548
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 3: Usually you are jumping to ten or more wins, likely

549
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 3: winning the division title. That's where all the numbers tell

550
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 3: us where Coach of the Year is gone and more recently,

551
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 3: three of our last five coaches of the Year were

552
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 3: first year coaches on their team. Not necessarily first year

553
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,919
Speaker 3: in the league, but a fresh face. You come in,

554
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 3: you take a bad team, you turn it around. We

555
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 3: notice you when we give you our Coach of the.

556
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,919
Speaker 4: Year vote, Jill Glant. That leads to your pick. It

557
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 4: kind of fits all the criteria Brandon just laid out.

558
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, And I was going to just add to

559
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,199
Speaker 2: what Brandon was saying, because Brandon Staley is the favorite

560
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 2: right now again this year, and he was the fave

561
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 2: last year. And I feel like if this was the

562
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 2: award for most inspiring like postgames each like, yeah, him

563
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 2: and Mike Tomlin, they're gonna be cult favorites. But Staley

564
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 2: and just the volatility of this, I'm not gonna take

565
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 2: a favorite rate off to hop on that, although I

566
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 2: would say Tomlin at twenty eight to one, if he

567
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 2: could somehow win ten games with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback,

568
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 2: just name the award after.

569
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 3: Him after that.

570
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go with Doug Peterson of the Jacksonville

571
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: Jaguars at eighteen to one, and again the most improved,

572
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 2: mainly because of opportunity only three wins last year, playing

573
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,119
Speaker 2: in a weaker division. I'm not gonna say it's the weakest,

574
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: but definitely.

575
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 1: A weaker division in the league.

576
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 2: Playing the AFC West though, it will be a little

577
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 2: bit of a gauntlet. But if they can come out

578
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 2: of those games even at two to two again, that'll

579
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 2: carry more weight from a win standpoint. Jacksonville averaged like

580
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 2: the lowest points per game in the league, fourteen point nine.

581
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 2: He's an offensive coach. If we can even get that

582
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 2: points per game to even twenty one, just twenty one points,

583
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,640
Speaker 2: that's a huge win for his candidacy. They were also

584
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 2: last and turnover differential that doesn't usually repeat year over year.

585
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 2: So I think Doug Peterson is in a great spot

586
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 2: at eighteen to one to be able to boost this

587
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 2: team to I don't know, eight nine wins.

588
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 3: That's enough.

589
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 4: He didn't even mention, like Urban Meyer, you can't get

590
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 4: much worse than that, Like how that hoole went, the

591
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 4: whole story went, right, I mean you can't, you can't.

592
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 4: That's rock bottom.

593
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 2: Comeback Player of the Year and coach of the Year

594
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 2: at the same time.

595
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 3: You know that could be the case for sure.

596
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 4: So finally, at least, it feels like a former quarterback

597
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 4: had success with Nick Foles for crying out loud to

598
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 4: a Super Bowl run feels Doug Peterson provides a little

599
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 4: stability for Trevor Lawrence, Brandon Anderson.

600
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 1: Where are you looking in this market? Coach of the Year.

601
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I didn't want to sprinkle a few guys

602
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 3: that fit my profile. I'm just looking for betting my

603
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 3: sleepers here basically. So I like Philadelphia, I like Minnesota,

604
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 3: and I like Denver. I'm gonna just play all three

605
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 3: of their coaches. Nick Sirianni and Philadelphia as a second

606
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 3: year guy really transformed that team last year. Their offense

607
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 3: in the middle of the year took a big leap.

608
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts, we talked about it earlier as a breakout guy.

609
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 3: Eels have the stopptest schedule in the league. I like them, sorry,

610
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 3: Jill in the division with the Tyrone Smith injury especially,

611
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 3: so I like Philadelphia. Nick Sirianni is twenty to one.

612
00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 3: Kevin O'Connell Minnesota twenty to one as well. Tough for

613
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 3: division because he got green Bay there, but we'll see

614
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 3: what he can do with the offense. And then back

615
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 3: to your Russell Wilson, pick Brandon. I like Nathaniel Hackett

616
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 3: in Denver. If the Broncos do come out of that division,

617
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,120
Speaker 3: they got that soft early start. He's at plus sixteen hundred.

618
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 3: So you play all three of those together, you're basically

619
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 3: getting Philly, Minnesota Denver at plus five point fifty if

620
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 3: you put all three of them. So I just want

621
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 3: to get a few sprinkles on sleeper upside here.

622
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 4: Of all the names we've just mentioned another theme that

623
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 4: in this might not you might not be able to

624
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 4: find this. Historically in the last fifteen years, even maybe

625
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 4: ten years, they're.

626
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:36,360
Speaker 1: All offensive coaches.

627
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 4: That's where the league is now, right, all offensive coaches

628
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 4: with some promise at the quarterback position. Especially Kirk Cousins

629
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 4: has never had an offensive coach in his career. Trevor

630
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: Lawrence has never had security since he was in Clemson.

631
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 4: Jalen Hurts comes from a great program scoring points. Sirianni

632
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 4: offensive coach, former quarterbacks coach, receivers coach, offensive coordinator in Indianapolis.

633
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 4: Daniel Hackett success he had with Aaron Rodgers.

634
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 1: In Green Bay.

635
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,159
Speaker 4: So I think that all makes sense too. They're all

636
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 4: offensive coaches. I think that matters in today's NFL. We

637
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:13,919
Speaker 4: move on to Comeback Player of the Year. Feels to me,

638
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 4: speaking of quarterbacks, that fit a lot of these awards.

639
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 4: You don't have the dak Joe Burrow where he really

640
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 4: felt at that point at some point last year. By

641
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 4: down the stretch the final three four weeks of the season,

642
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 4: it was a two man race. It came down to

643
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 4: those two guys and just what narratives and what story

644
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 4: felt bigger. And of course, you know Cincinnati reaching the

645
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, that of course is not factor into it,

646
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 4: but it elevates the Joe Burrow story in Dallas kind

647
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:45,959
Speaker 4: of you know, falling on its face quite literally when

648
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 4: they couldn't snap the ball. AnyWho the profile on comeback

649
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 4: Player of the Year this season and maybe how years

650
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 4: pass Brandon, how does it play out?

651
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, you nailed that. We're looking at a quarterback award.

652
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 3: Usually ten of our last fourteen comeback player of the year.

653
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 3: We're quarterbacks, and it's a story award. This is about narrative.

654
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 3: Like we talk one narrative with the other ones. Comeback

655
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 3: Player of the Year is entirely a narrative. Holy cow,

656
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,239
Speaker 3: we counted you for dead. You're injured, we traded you,

657
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,959
Speaker 3: we left you where nobody cared anymore. You're back, baby,

658
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 3: what's the story? You need a story here? So you

659
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:22,719
Speaker 3: know that's obviously Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott really easy stories

660
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 3: to tell last year. I agree. The story is not

661
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 3: quite as easy this year. But one other thing I

662
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 3: did note here. Most of these comebacks are from injury,

663
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 3: pretty major injury usually, so ten of our last fourteen

664
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 3: I would qualify as coming back from some sort of injury.

665
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 3: And you gotta win. You can't just be a fun story.

666
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 3: Thirteen of our last fourteen winners made the playoffs, and

667
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 3: thirteen of them won nine or more games. So it's

668
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 3: got to be more of the story. And that's where

669
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 3: it gets a little tricky this year because some of those,

670
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 3: like you said, Brandon, the quarterbacks that steem to stand

671
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 3: out here, a Baker, Mayfield, Jamis Winston, the guys who

672
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,239
Speaker 3: are near the top of the odds, well, are they

673
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 3: gonna win enough to capture our heart with the right story?

674
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 4: For sure, and not only capture our hearts? But time

675
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 4: is not on their side. If it doesn't start well

676
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 4: for Baker, Who's to say, Matt Ruhle a desperate coach

677
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 4: on the hot seat, let's go to Sam Darnold.

678
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 1: I mean, my jobs on the line. Baker.

679
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 4: We're not paying you, so thank you very much. Didn't

680
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 4: work out, so be it, Jamis, it started off great

681
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 4: last year.

682
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 1: We feel for you, but you know.

683
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 4: We're we're already sort of rebuilding on offense here at

684
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 4: New Orleans. We're all set, thank you very much. Before

685
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,239
Speaker 4: we get to Brandon's pick, Jill, who do you like

686
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 4: comeback player of the year this season?

687
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, just to go more with what Brandon was saying,

688
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 2: like obviously looking at quarterbacks like Marcus Mariota, like sitting

689
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 2: there around you know, eighteen maybe twenty to one, depending

690
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 2: on the book, pretty much discarded from the league, like

691
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 2: for instance, twenty nineteen, like if he somehow gets the

692
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 2: Atlanta Falcons, this roster to like eight or nine wins,

693
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 2: again locked and loaded, because again this team has projected

694
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 2: four or five wins at best. Same thing Mitch Drubisky,

695
00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 2: as we were talking about, if he was somehow to

696
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 2: do that, But again I would probably more lean to

697
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 2: Tomlin's coach of the year candidacy more than Trubisky's comeback

698
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 2: player of the year aspects so based on talent and upside,

699
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 2: I'm going Christian McCaffrey. I know we're going to buck

700
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 2: the trend a year about quarterbacks, but he's gonna be

701
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 2: given so much opportunity. And again it's not a coincidence,

702
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 2: like he's being taken in the top two picks in

703
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 2: every fantasy draft.

704
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 3: He's consensus pick.

705
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 1: There.

706
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: Injuries are always a concern. I mean, we said the

707
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 2: same thing, and look, Dereck Henry is the favor right

708
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 2: now for this award and he's coming off a pretty

709
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 2: devastating foot injury as well. So I'm gonna look at

710
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey because again, just what his talent and upside is,

711
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 2: the stats that he can rack up, He'll just have

712
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 2: much more of an impact than say a Marcus Mario

713
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: to Mitch Trubisky or even a Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Platter.

714
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 1: What do you got for us, Brandon?

715
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a tough one because I want a

716
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 3: quarterback here. If I, like Jill said, there are some

717
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 3: other quarterbacks that could sneak in and win this award here,

718
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 3: even the guy that I want, I'm just gonna give

719
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 3: you a name here, I have not seen him at

720
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 3: a buck. I want Matt Ryan, show me some Matt

721
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 3: Ryan odds. I know that dude did not get injured.

722
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 3: He basically never has. But he kind of fits the

723
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 3: profile of a past winner where we gave up on him,

724
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 3: we trade him away. But the Colts are in that

725
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 3: pretty easy division. They have a good chance to win

726
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 3: ten eleven, twelve games. Maybe they're much better without Carson

727
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 3: Wentz this year, just a chance to you know, suddenly

728
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 3: the Colts are a two or three seed in the AFC.

729
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 3: I'm looking pretty solid, and it's like, hey, Matt Ryan,

730
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 3: we're not gonna give him another their MVP. But guy's

731
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 3: doing pretty well, you know, so I'm looking for him,

732
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 3: maybe even a Lamar Jackson. Like I'm waiting here because

733
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 3: I think I need a quarterback later and I don't

734
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 3: think it's those top guys, but we'll see who it

735
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 3: could be. If if you want to make the grossest

736
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 3: bet that you can make this year, Deshaun Watson is

737
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty to one out there. If you

738
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 3: just want to wait around, hope the Browns just stay

739
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 3: afloat and then you get Watson just red hot in

740
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 3: those last six weeks to your money, not mine.

741
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 4: Okay, we are still moving our way through our NFL

742
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 4: season preview are one of our episodes here on the

743
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 4: Action Network podcast, our NFL Awards Best Bets episode rolls on.

744
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 4: Let's go to offensive Player of the Year. We're not

745
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 4: talking rookies now, We're talking the entire landscape here of

746
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 4: offensive pieces.

747
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 1: Who wins this award? Brandon usually very easy profile.

748
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:17,959
Speaker 3: I'll just give me the numbers. Just look at the numbers.

749
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 3: Doesn't matter if you win. I don't need a narrative.

750
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 3: Just give me the numbers. Used to be the running

751
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 3: backs where the offensive players of the year, just like

752
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 3: the modern NFL is going. This is now a passing league.

753
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,000
Speaker 3: Quarterbacks and receivers are winning this now. But just to

754
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 3: give you a taste of what the numbers you might

755
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 3: need here, here's the average over the last ten years

756
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 3: of what a statistical profile is for offensive Player of

757
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 3: the Year. If you're quarterback, five thousand yards, forty touchdowns,

758
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 3: that's what we're looking for. Running back two thousand scrimmage

759
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 3: yards and fourteen touchdowns. Wide receiver that's two of our

760
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 3: last three winners. One hundred and fifty catches, eighteen hundred yards,

761
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 3: twelve touchdowns, So you basically need to just pick someone

762
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 3: to put up an outlandish Fantasy Gods season. That's your

763
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 3: offensive player the air.

764
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 4: I want to put you on the spot. As a

765
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 4: follow up question, especially this season, using our conversation about MVP,

766
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 4: we talked about the AFC West, what are the chances

767
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 4: and maybe there is a historical background on this. What

768
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 4: if it's the MVP runner up, Say it's you know,

769
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 4: Mahomes and Herbert or Mahomes in Wilson. They both have

770
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 4: amazing seasons. It comes down to the final week Kansas

771
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 4: City emerges. So therefore Russell Wilson gets snubbed because he

772
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 4: just fell short to Mahomes and the last thing they

773
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 4: can turn to as a tiebreaker is, well, Mahomes won

774
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 4: the division, so sorry, Russell Wilson. Does that factor in

775
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 4: it all, especially in the AFC with all of these quarterbacks.

776
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 3: It feels like it should right, like it's a thing

777
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 3: that we will certainly talk about in December when it

778
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 3: comes time to do it, but historically it really hasn't

779
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 3: lived up that way. These awards are actually only fifty

780
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 3: votes and you get a one ballot with one name

781
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 3: for all of these so you don't get a second

782
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 3: and a third place vot. You just got one name

783
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 3: to put in here. There's no summ we we're meeting

784
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 3: together and saying, well, hey, Pa, Mahomes is gonna be

785
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 3: your MVP, so should we give this other award to

786
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 3: the other guy. Historically, actually, when you have that super

787
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 3: really elite season, the fifty touchdown season, you just win

788
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 3: MVP and Offensive Player of the Year. So it's actually

789
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 3: more common for the MVP to win than for the

790
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 3: runner up MVP to get in here. So for me,

791
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 3: this is almost a weight and bet in season award

792
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 3: because you almost need to see a month in two

793
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 3: months in who is the fantasy star? We don't know yet,

794
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 3: Otherwise you'd be winning all your leagues every year. Who's

795
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 3: got those huge numbers you can predict a little bet.

796
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 3: So we've got some flyers for you.

797
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 4: Of course, that's really good insight. Let's get into some picks.

798
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 4: We'll start with Jill, what do you got for us?

799
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm taking a pair of LSU Tigers. Is going

800
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 2: to be doing the gritty on this one. We're going

801
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 2: with Justin Jefferson at sixteen to one. Two seasons with

802
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 2: Minnesota one hundred ninety six balls, over three thousand receiving yards,

803
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 2: eighteen touchdowns. It's going to come down to Kirk Cousins

804
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 2: really though. Cousin's thrown over thirty touchdowns and three or

805
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 2: four seasons, and they're probably going to have to get

806
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 2: closer to forty touchdowns. I'd imagine win at least ten

807
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 2: games just to correlate for that for Jefferson to get there.

808
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 2: But I think the yardage is there to have a

809
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 2: big year, and then of course Jamar Chase going to

810
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,919
Speaker 2: try to catch the tail of the commet here eighty

811
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:17,800
Speaker 2: one catches over fourteen hundred receiving yards, thirteen touchdowns. Pretty

812
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 2: much if it wasn't Cooper cup A Jonathan Taylor like,

813
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 2: you could make a legitimate case that Jamar Chase could

814
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 2: have won this in his rookie season. Also, just to

815
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 2: start the year. Part of this is almost kind of

816
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:29,280
Speaker 2: like a CLV style play because they're playing the Steelers

817
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 2: and Cowboys to start the year. If he comes out

818
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 2: of the gate and has two hundred receiving yards and

819
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:36,280
Speaker 2: two touchdowns, like just using that as a bar metric,

820
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 2: those odds are going to drop significantly and you're not

821
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 2: gonna be able to get that kind of price for

822
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 2: the rest of the year, so the Borough connection is undeniable.

823
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 2: I think the Bengals still need to win ten more

824
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 2: games again this year purchase to be considered, but at

825
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 2: these odds, I'm willing to take a stab to find

826
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 2: out if the Bengals.

827
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:51,240
Speaker 1: Were a fluke.

828
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 3: For me, really, it's about avoiding names at this stage.

829
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna avoid those guys at the top, Jonathan Taylor,

830
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup, Derrick, Henry Deebo, the twenty one guys or shorter.

831
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 3: You need such a crazy outlier season to win this

832
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 3: that it's just too hard to predict. And this is

833
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 3: the time to grab the long shot, take a little nibble,

834
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 3: and then wait a little bit longer. That the nibble

835
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 3: a will take is a guy that if you fall.

836
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 3: Last year, we had our Tom Brady MVP tickets man.

837
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 3: We were ready to cash. We had our fourteen to

838
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 3: one preseason on this podcast last year for MVP, we

839
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 3: were the lead late in the year. It didn't come

840
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 3: through for us. But Tom Brady did lead the NFL

841
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:34,439
Speaker 3: in yards and passing attempts and completions and touchdowns last year,

842
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:36,439
Speaker 3: and that is not a new thing. He was doing

843
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 3: that the back half of the season the year before.

844
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 3: Once they really open the offense up, Tom Brady's going

845
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 3: to have huge passing attempts. He's going to open it up.

846
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 3: They've got the great receivers. He's fifty to one here.

847
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 3: Fifty to one is long enough for me to nibble,

848
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 3: take a little bite. We know his numbers are going

849
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 3: to put him in the mix, and then we'll just

850
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 3: see where this goes of the season progresses.

851
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 4: And you compare it to his MVP odds, it's it's

852
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 4: certainly a look, you're getting a much better number.

853
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 1: Obviously.

854
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 4: Hey, maybe he retires again for a week and maybe

855
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 4: he can be in the comeback Player of the Year discussion.

856
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 4: I mean they technically retired for like forty days. Maybe

857
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 4: if he takes another D season vacation, Giselle, I mean,

858
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 4: you could do us.

859
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 1: A favor there.

860
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, Again, the guy couldn't retire like two weeks before

861
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 3: the end of the season and cash our MVP tickets

862
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 3: for us. It was right there, Tom, right there.

863
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 1: Very good.

864
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 4: All right, before we wrap, We've got one more award

865
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 4: to get to. It's Defensive Player of the Year. Brandon

866
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 4: Why don't you lay out for us how this typically goes.

867
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,360
Speaker 3: So much like defensive Rookie of the Year, this is

868
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 3: again one where you want to go with one of

869
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 3: the favorites. Actually, we don't get too creative with our

870
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:41,280
Speaker 3: defensive awards. Nobody cares about defense. We just all agree

871
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 3: on the top guys and give them the awards. So basically,

872
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 3: Defensive Player of the Year is really just what it's called.

873
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 3: We just say, hey, who's the best defender. Oh it's

874
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 3: Aaron Donald. Again, let's give him the awards. So we're

875
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 3: looking for a guy, usually someone that gets after the quarterback.

876
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,399
Speaker 3: Eight of our last ten defensive Player of the Year

877
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 3: would be someone you qualify as a pass rusher of sorts,

878
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 3: depending if you count Donald for that. We also like

879
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 3: repeat winners here, because again, where is he give it

880
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 3: to the best defender? So of our last ten winners,

881
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 3: four of them had won previously, and six of them

882
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 3: got votes the year before. And remember there's only fifty votes,

883
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 3: so that is no small feat to be a vote getter.

884
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 3: So you just want to basically pick who's a really

885
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 3: good defender that everyone agrees on.

886
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,799
Speaker 1: It's also kind of how you mentioned it, like You're not.

887
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 4: No one's throwing up their arms like really or not

888
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 4: considering somebody else.

889
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: This isn't a big like like.

890
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 4: You said, well, who hasn't won it yet, who's the

891
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 4: shiny new toy, who hasn't got their MVP yet, or

892
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:43,319
Speaker 4: who hasn't received their respect yet. Offensively, it's such an

893
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,360
Speaker 4: offensive driven league that we're just like, yeah, sure, I

894
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 4: give it to that guy. He's look at his numbers

895
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 4: and he's just he's doing it again. He's just gonna

896
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 4: keep winning it. Jill Gallant is, what's your pick for

897
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 4: Defensive Player of the Year.

898
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say, I love Aaron Donald. I

899
00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 2: think Aaron Donald deserves to be the favorite just based

900
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 2: on the odds and implied probability. But I think voters

901
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 2: will turn to knowing that you know, you have Jalen

902
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 2: Ramsey in that defense, you have Bobby Wagner as well,

903
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 2: and that kind of maybe takes away some from some

904
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 2: of his accomplishments. So I am going to go for

905
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 2: a little bit of a long shot here. We're gonna

906
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:18,720
Speaker 2: be taking Darius aka Shakiel Leonard at thirty three to one.

907
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 2: Coltson favored to win the Division They're one of the

908
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 2: best run defenses in the NFL, top five d line

909
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 2: in the league. They only allowed ten rushing touchdowns last year.

910
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 2: That was ranked second overall. It was the pass defense

911
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 2: that really struggled like mightily last year thirty two touchdowns allowed.

912
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 2: That was thirty first in the NFL. They did sign

913
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 2: Stefan Gilmour in the offseason. I'm hoping that should trim

914
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 2: that down, bring it back to a league average. They've

915
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 2: got six games in twenty twenty two that they're gonna

916
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 2: be able to just feast on that were bottom five

917
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 2: and points per game. You got the Texans, the Jags

918
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:49,840
Speaker 2: that both played them both twice. They got the Giants,

919
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,839
Speaker 2: you got the Commanders, and I think the casual better.

920
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 2: A lot of time they'll look the sacks and say,

921
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 2: like TJ. Watt or Miles Garrett, they're going to win it.

922
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 2: But I think this award correlates more to team success

923
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,439
Speaker 2: because the Steelers made the playoffs and the Browns didn't,

924
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,840
Speaker 2: and Miles Garrett was pretty much a front runner for

925
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:06,759
Speaker 2: Defensive Player of the Year pretty much most of the

926
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:07,919
Speaker 2: season until the.

927
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 3: Back end fell out of that.

928
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,880
Speaker 2: So Leonard again didn't have any sacks last year, but

929
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 2: that was because he was asked to play more in

930
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 2: pass coverage. Had four interceptions last year, and he could

931
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 2: defend tight ends as one of the few linebackers that

932
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: can do that make splash plays. Get on Sports Center

933
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 2: Skiel Letter thirty three to one.

934
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 3: Let's go.

935
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 4: I get the sense, Brandon that you're going to follow

936
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 4: your criteria.

937
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 3: I am. I'm going with the favorites here, and that's

938
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 3: actually my favorite pick on the entire podcast. Here. I'm

939
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 3: gonna build a foundation on two guys that I think

940
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 3: are the two best defenders in the league. It's Aaron

941
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: Donald and it's TJ. A. Watt. TJ. A. Watt wanted

942
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 3: last year. He's led the league in sacks twice in

943
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 3: a row. He's finished top three in this category three

944
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 3: years in a row. Aaron Donald Defensive Player of the

945
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 3: Year finishes. Here's going backwards third, first, fifth, first, first, fourth, second.

946
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 3: He's finished top five and gotten votes every year. He's

947
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 3: finished top three all but two of those years. You

948
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 3: got the retirement tour. He's the Super Bowl winner. He

949
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 3: could be the first defender ever to win. Four of

950
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 3: these people are talking about him as maybe one of

951
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,280
Speaker 3: the best defenders. Ever, we would have a little narrative

952
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 3: award there. So Aaron Donald tj a lot. If you

953
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,240
Speaker 3: shop Brown nine to one on both of those guys,

954
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 3: those numbers are way too long. You grab both of those,

955
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,839
Speaker 3: you basically get plus four hundred on a two man

956
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:20,840
Speaker 3: position that are very likely to be two of the

957
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 3: top three on the ballot at the end of the year.

958
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 3: And I think that's a great way to set yourself

959
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 3: up for success.

960
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 1: Love it.

961
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 4: In this league we talk so much offense, but defensively

962
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,840
Speaker 4: you have to have a shutdown corner but also guys

963
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 4: that get to the quarterback and disrupt some of the

964
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 4: best guys in the league. Okay, so Brandon just gave

965
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 4: us his best bet. You're sticking by that this particular award.

966
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 4: What Donald get involved, that's what you're going with.

967
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 3: That's my favorite That in Pat Mahomes MVP plus nine hundred, very.

968
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 4: Good, Jill best bet from this entire show, A lot

969
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 4: to digest, But what stands out from all of it.

970
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 2: I mean, I really like Justin Jefferson at sixteen to one.

971
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 2: I really think, man, he is just emerging and just

972
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 2: is going to become that number one option or at

973
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 2: least number one receiver in the league. You're seeing fantasy

974
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:06,840
Speaker 2: drafts reflect that justin Jefferson all day.

975
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 4: And Kirk's words, you like that, so good work, You

976
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 4: like that, you like that. That is going to conclude

977
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 4: our NFL Awards Best Bets episode here on the Action

978
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 4: Network Podcast. As a reminder, we'll have a lot of

979
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 4: great episodes heading into our Week one betting preview on

980
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 4: September eighth, And as a reminder, as we said at

981
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:28,799
Speaker 4: the top of the show, this trio will join you

982
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 4: all season long every Monday recapping the previous Sunday in

983
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 4: the NFL, and it's called the Monday NFL Recap episode.

984
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:39,280
Speaker 1: Here on the Action Network Podcast.

985
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 4: We'll recap Sunday, look ahead to Monday night briefly, and

986
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 4: then look ahead for a hot read picks for the

987
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 4: following week.

988
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 1: So we're looking forward to it.

989
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 4: We're just getting started here this trio and here on

990
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 4: the Action Network Podcast. Coming up on the pod here

991
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 4: just some things to keep on your radar. We'll have

992
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 4: an episode for NFL Exotics Season Leaders, also NFL Pool

993
00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 4: Stratum plus as an aside from football, our final UFC

994
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 4: betting episode of the season Friday with our UFC Paris

995
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:12,239
Speaker 4: preview for Jill Glant, Brandon Anderson, Brendan glas Sheen. Best

996
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 4: of luck to all of you out there, thanks for

997
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 4: tuning in. As always, we will see you next time

998
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 4: right here on the Action Network Podcast