1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,360
Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought to you

2
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,240
Speaker 1: by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from

3
00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:11,280
Speaker 1: frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, artisonal pastries, and

4
00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,800
Speaker 1: fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in twenty

5
00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:18,759
Speaker 1: five minutes or less. Unlike many store brought options, Wild

6
00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,880
Speaker 1: Grain uses some simple ingredients you can pronounce and a

7
00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,480
Speaker 1: slow fermentation process that can be a lot easier on

8
00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,080
Speaker 1: your belly, little gut health there right, and richer in

9
00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:32,600
Speaker 1: nutrients antioxidants. There's also no preservatives and no shortcuts. The

10
00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,800
Speaker 1: Wild Grain boxes are fully customizable. In addition to their

11
00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:38,920
Speaker 1: variety box, they have a gluten free box, a vegan box,

12
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:42,559
Speaker 1: and a new protein box. I will tell you I

13
00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:44,960
Speaker 1: have done the gluten free box. I have done it

14
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,600
Speaker 1: a second time. I have also used the code, the

15
00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 1: todcast code. If you use the promo code toodcast at checkout,

16
00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,640
Speaker 1: you get thirty dollars off. I've already used it as

17
00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,880
Speaker 1: a gift to somebody else who loves this bread. It

18
00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:02,560
Speaker 1: is hard to find good gluten free bread. It is fantastic.

19
00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:04,640
Speaker 1: They give you step by step instructions.

20
00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:05,720
Speaker 2: I really dig this.

21
00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:09,760
Speaker 1: There is nothing like having an artesion bakery in your

22
00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:12,560
Speaker 1: freezer to chase away the winter chill. Now is the

23
00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,920
Speaker 1: best time to stay in and enjoy some comforting homemade

24
00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,600
Speaker 1: meals with Wildgrain. I obviously highly recommend it. It is

25
00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:21,319
Speaker 1: worth giving Wildgrain to try.

26
00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:21,759
Speaker 2: Right now.

27
00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:24,559
Speaker 1: Wildgrain is offering my listeners thirty dollars off your first

28
00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:28,600
Speaker 1: box plus free croissants for life. Come on when you

29
00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:32,080
Speaker 1: go to wildgrain dot com slash podcast to start your

30
00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,280
Speaker 1: subscription today. That's thirty dollars off your first box and

31
00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,680
Speaker 1: free croissants for life when you visit wildgrain dot com

32
00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:43,080
Speaker 1: slash podcast, or simply use the promo code podcast at checkout.

33
00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:50,080
Speaker 1: This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code.

34
00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:55,560
Speaker 1: Hello Aaron, Welcome to my Thursday episode of the Chuck Podcast.

35
00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:58,080
Speaker 1: Word of warning, this is gonna feel a bit foreign

36
00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:02,240
Speaker 1: policy heavy, but frank you know we are the risk.

37
00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,480
Speaker 1: As my guest today will let you know Ian Bremer

38
00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:08,799
Speaker 1: of the Eurasia Group. I've had him on before. He's

39
00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,839
Speaker 1: one of you knows. He's somebody that I will will

40
00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:15,440
Speaker 1: turn into one of my SNL five timers in the

41
00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:17,880
Speaker 1: podcast five Timer Club. I don't think we're at five

42
00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,919
Speaker 1: times yet. But if you counted my previous iterations of

43
00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,080
Speaker 1: this podcast, I think we would get to the five timers.

44
00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,600
Speaker 1: But does Ian and I do it tour the world?

45
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,720
Speaker 1: We start in the Western hemisphere and and go through

46
00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:33,120
Speaker 1: all the variety of hot spots we talked this week,

47
00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:36,720
Speaker 1: So yes, we know things could be moving already. For instance,

48
00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:43,520
Speaker 1: you have President Trump walking back threats on Iran. He

49
00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:47,720
Speaker 1: says he's got assurances that the killing of protesters has stopped.

50
00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,320
Speaker 1: He doesn't say where he got those assurances, how he

51
00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,480
Speaker 1: got those assurances, But what it really tells me is

52
00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:55,440
Speaker 1: he wanted to walk back the threat because he knew

53
00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,040
Speaker 1: it was very complicated. What were you going to strike?

54
00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:00,919
Speaker 1: Where were you going to strike? He already did the

55
00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,239
Speaker 1: nuclear hit. Are you're going to go after more of

56
00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:05,400
Speaker 1: the nuclear sites? What were you going to do to

57
00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,240
Speaker 1: send that message? What were you going to do that

58
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,040
Speaker 1: would not And you know, of course, people got really

59
00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:12,600
Speaker 1: nervous a couple of hours before I'm taping this because

60
00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:19,920
Speaker 1: suddenly our basin cutter. We were moving folks basically preparing

61
00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:24,840
Speaker 1: for a retaliation, potential retaliation from Iran. So it was

62
00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:30,200
Speaker 1: making people think this was imminent and that something was

63
00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,959
Speaker 1: about to happen. And then literally an hour after that report,

64
00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,400
Speaker 1: we had the President come out indicating that he had

65
00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:39,200
Speaker 1: gotten this assurance. So but look, there's a lot of

66
00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:41,800
Speaker 1: moving parts. We also know that the administration met with

67
00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:46,320
Speaker 1: Danish officials and it's a stalemate. I should read you.

68
00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:51,600
Speaker 1: I think this is it is. This is Donald Trump

69
00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,160
Speaker 1: real estate negotiator. Here, I will read you this tweet.

70
00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:58,400
Speaker 1: The United States needs greenland for the purpose of national security.

71
00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,320
Speaker 1: It is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building.

72
00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:05,520
Speaker 1: This idea that the so called dome that protects Israel,

73
00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,640
Speaker 1: that we helped, of course fund, and that has been

74
00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,880
Speaker 1: fairly successful at keeping Israel safe from missile attacks, that

75
00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:16,080
Speaker 1: somehow this is something that can essentially be built, and

76
00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,279
Speaker 1: if you're old enough, you'll start hey, this has the

77
00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,440
Speaker 1: feel of Star Wars too, right, which was what Reagan

78
00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,359
Speaker 1: called it back in the day, felt like more like

79
00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,800
Speaker 1: a financial boondoggle that was only going to make a

80
00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:30,760
Speaker 1: bunch of defense contractors rich. And even the Golden Dome

81
00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,720
Speaker 1: feels like it's a boondoggle that's likely only going to

82
00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:35,920
Speaker 1: make a bunch of defense contractors rich.

83
00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:37,080
Speaker 2: But I digress.

84
00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,200
Speaker 1: So he brings up his Golden dome, and then he

85
00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,800
Speaker 1: adds this NATO should be leading the way for us

86
00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:44,360
Speaker 1: to get it. Referring to Greenland, he says, if we don't,

87
00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:46,640
Speaker 1: Russia or China will, and that is not going to happen.

88
00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,920
Speaker 1: And then he continues to argue militarily, without the vast

89
00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:51,800
Speaker 1: power of the United States, much of what I've built

90
00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:53,880
Speaker 1: during my first term and am now bringing to a

91
00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:56,080
Speaker 1: new and even higher level, NATO would not be an

92
00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,480
Speaker 1: effective force or deterrent, not even close. They know that,

93
00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,200
Speaker 1: and so do I. NATO becomes far more formidable and

94
00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:03,360
Speaker 1: effective with Greenland in the hands of the United States.

95
00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:06,200
Speaker 1: Anything less than that is unacceptable. Thank you for attention

96
00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:10,880
Speaker 1: to this matter. Okay, So what is he really saying here?

97
00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:13,960
Speaker 1: If you want to read between the lines, he's basically saying,

98
00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:19,919
Speaker 1: so North America Treaty Organization, it's a mighty fine multilateral

99
00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,880
Speaker 1: agreement you got. There be a shame if it if

100
00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:29,479
Speaker 1: it was destroyed. So here are my terms if you

101
00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:33,760
Speaker 1: want the single most important member of NATO to stay

102
00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:40,640
Speaker 1: in NATO. Now is he serious on this? We know

103
00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:42,720
Speaker 1: he's serious about Greenland. Is he serious about pulling out

104
00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:46,520
Speaker 1: a NATO? Is he really serious about that. Would the

105
00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,119
Speaker 1: US Senate, you know that that would be a line

106
00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,120
Speaker 1: in the sand. The idea that he's you know of,

107
00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:55,120
Speaker 1: and he's not quite saying it, but he certainly is

108
00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,880
Speaker 1: implying it that he wants to hold NATO membership hostage

109
00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:06,680
Speaker 1: in exchange for control of Greenland. I would say this

110
00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,760
Speaker 1: is a non starter, except, as we all know, it

111
00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:15,640
Speaker 1: has been astonishing how many countries have been to his

112
00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:23,680
Speaker 1: will at times. Whether Europe will do this, I don't

113
00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,440
Speaker 1: think they will. I think this is going to be

114
00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:31,400
Speaker 1: their line in the sand. But and I'm not sure

115
00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:37,440
Speaker 1: just buying Greenland is going to be considered something that

116
00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,520
Speaker 1: is feasible, if you will. But let's talk about the reality.

117
00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:43,760
Speaker 2: You know, this.

118
00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:49,400
Speaker 1: Might be easier to make happen if people that lived

119
00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,839
Speaker 1: in Greenland wanted to leave the Kingdom of Denmark, but

120
00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,080
Speaker 1: they do not. And of course, the more Donald Trump

121
00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,880
Speaker 1: saber rattles about Greenland, the more apparently it has made

122
00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,160
Speaker 1: Greenlanders more defiant about this, and it has made Danes

123
00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,520
Speaker 1: more defiant about this, and it's likely to make Europeans

124
00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:10,920
Speaker 1: more defying about this. So this Greenland situation, I think

125
00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,560
Speaker 1: is a lot more serious and I'll fully confess that

126
00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:18,280
Speaker 1: I vacillate between snickering when I hear about this Greenland

127
00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,600
Speaker 1: thing and then realizing, my god, is this the thing

128
00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:25,280
Speaker 1: that's going to completely sever our relationship with Europe for good?

129
00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:30,000
Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin couldn't have asked for a better scenario, right,

130
00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:33,000
Speaker 1: What does Putin want more than anything else? The end

131
00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:40,800
Speaker 1: of NATO. So that is why even uttering a sort

132
00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,200
Speaker 1: of threat like this, essentially the old that's a mighty

133
00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:48,440
Speaker 1: nice it's a mighty nice military pact you got there,

134
00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,840
Speaker 1: defense pact they got there, be ashamed of something happened

135
00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:55,560
Speaker 1: to it that he's dangling that and then trying to say, hey,

136
00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:57,000
Speaker 1: if you put it in our hands, then hey, then

137
00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,640
Speaker 1: NATO's going to be in great shade. Then you're going

138
00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:04,000
Speaker 1: to get everything you want there. So look, I don't

139
00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:06,800
Speaker 1: think we're taking Greenland militarily, right, that seems to be

140
00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:08,480
Speaker 1: off the table. But it does seem as if he's

141
00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:12,160
Speaker 1: trying to find a way to buy it, right, either

142
00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:16,800
Speaker 1: you buy it directly or you buy it indirectly via

143
00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,440
Speaker 1: threats in NATO, but essentially it becomes some sort of

144
00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:21,520
Speaker 1: financial transaction.

145
00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:22,160
Speaker 2: But this is.

146
00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,680
Speaker 1: This is on a level that you're just sitting there going,

147
00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:33,000
Speaker 1: what are we doing? And this is not going to

148
00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,560
Speaker 1: be good for the long run for the United States.

149
00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:37,240
Speaker 1: But it sort of gets it to a larger issue,

150
00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,280
Speaker 1: right the American Bublic isn't gonna you know, politically, everything

151
00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,680
Speaker 1: he's doing here is not good politics for him, not

152
00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,240
Speaker 1: because the country doesn't want Greenland, or not because people

153
00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,480
Speaker 1: think Maduro's a good guy, or not because they What

154
00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:53,800
Speaker 1: it really is is, anytime presidents are more focused on

155
00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,720
Speaker 1: anything that's not in the United States of America, while

156
00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,880
Speaker 1: you have an economy that most people don't like, like

157
00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:07,200
Speaker 1: the economy we currently have, you're setting yourself up for

158
00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:11,040
Speaker 1: While he's focused on this, you know, he's not focused

159
00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,400
Speaker 1: on grocery prices. While he's focused on this, he's not

160
00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,880
Speaker 1: focused on lowering electric bills. So all, you know, the

161
00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,640
Speaker 1: more time that he spends on Greenland, the more time

162
00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,080
Speaker 1: that he spends saber rattling with Iran, the more time

163
00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:29,440
Speaker 1: he spends even talking about toppling the regime in Cuba.

164
00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:30,280
Speaker 2: It is.

165
00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:33,920
Speaker 1: It is the message being sent to everybody outside the

166
00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,160
Speaker 1: state of Miami, which for those of you that wonder

167
00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,160
Speaker 1: what I refer to as the state of Miami.

168
00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:38,560
Speaker 2: It is.

169
00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,480
Speaker 1: It's an old Howard Schnellenberger ism. Yes, I have hurricanes

170
00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:46,120
Speaker 1: on the brain. Deal with it. Where he used to

171
00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,720
Speaker 1: say those three counties in South Florida, Palm Beach County,

172
00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:51,559
Speaker 1: Broward County, in Dade County. As far as football recruiting

173
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:55,400
Speaker 1: purposes were, it's the state of Miami. Well as far

174
00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:59,679
Speaker 1: as caring about Latin American politics, that's the state of

175
00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:00,480
Speaker 1: Mia too.

176
00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:01,360
Speaker 2: Uh.

177
00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,920
Speaker 1: And so where's Donald Trump's vacation home. Uh, in the

178
00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:08,640
Speaker 1: state of in the in the in the Palm Beach district,

179
00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:13,160
Speaker 1: in the state of Miami. So you know, he's got

180
00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:19,160
Speaker 1: a feedback loop of essentially former ex you know, Cuban exiles,

181
00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:24,040
Speaker 1: Venezuelan exiles, all big money people who have been working

182
00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:27,040
Speaker 1: him at mar A Lago. So you know, he hears that

183
00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:29,760
Speaker 1: and thinks what he's doing is really popular over there.

184
00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:31,920
Speaker 1: But in the rest of the country it may not

185
00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,320
Speaker 1: be unpopular getting rid of Maduro, but it is not

186
00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:36,240
Speaker 1: seen as a priority.

187
00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,000
Speaker 2: On that front. But it does.

188
00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:43,720
Speaker 1: You know what, what what this really begs for is

189
00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:49,320
Speaker 1: a longer conversation about, all right, what we're really having here,

190
00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,000
Speaker 1: and we haven't and I wish we would have this debate,

191
00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:54,920
Speaker 1: and I don't even think we're going to have it

192
00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:58,640
Speaker 1: in our next presidential campaign. I wish we would, but

193
00:10:58,760 --> 00:10:59,840
Speaker 1: I don't see it coming.

194
00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:01,760
Speaker 2: Which is what should.

195
00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:04,520
Speaker 1: Be America's role in the world. And I want to

196
00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:11,400
Speaker 1: share with you some highlights of an extraordinarily important i'd

197
00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:14,760
Speaker 1: call it a policy paper that's been put out by

198
00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:18,400
Speaker 1: the Council on Foreign Relations, authored by one of their

199
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:23,800
Speaker 1: senior analysts, the Henry Kissinger Fellow for Foreign Policy. It's

200
00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,839
Speaker 1: a gentleman by the name of Robert Blackwell. I've known

201
00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,120
Speaker 1: him a long time. He's one of the he is

202
00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:34,439
Speaker 1: He's basically, you know, part of that circle of you know.

203
00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:38,400
Speaker 1: I've always said, you know, before Trump, much of American

204
00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:44,880
Speaker 1: form policy was fairly bipartisan, meaning Clinton's national security advisor,

205
00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:48,040
Speaker 1: you know, Clinton's national security advisor, George W. Bush's national

206
00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,920
Speaker 1: security advisor, Barack Obama's national security advisor, would agree on

207
00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,280
Speaker 1: ninety percent of the of the goals, even agree on

208
00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,960
Speaker 1: eighty percent of the tactics to use. There'd be disagreements

209
00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:57,480
Speaker 1: on what to do here and what to do there,

210
00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:01,040
Speaker 1: but there was generally agreement these are priorities, these are

211
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,720
Speaker 1: not we should be this free trade alliance over here,

212
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,880
Speaker 1: et cetera. And Robert Blackwell is from that school more

213
00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:10,400
Speaker 1: on the Republican side for a while, has sort of

214
00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,720
Speaker 1: shifted over as a lot of sort of ex Republicans,

215
00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:16,960
Speaker 1: if you will, have shifted over in the Trump era,

216
00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:20,720
Speaker 1: because this is you know, it's not just it's less

217
00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:22,360
Speaker 1: you know, it's not just the character and ethics of

218
00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:26,760
Speaker 1: Trump in the foreign policy community. I mean, Trump's an isolationists, right,

219
00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:32,040
Speaker 1: and he is believing in this Great Powers debate that

220
00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,320
Speaker 1: that's what this is, and then that's what our foreign

221
00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,920
Speaker 1: policy should be. He's not a multilateralist, right, and by

222
00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,000
Speaker 1: the way, he's never been a multilateralist. Even when he

223
00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,920
Speaker 1: was first dabbling in politics back in the late eighties,

224
00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:45,280
Speaker 1: he was upset about.

225
00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:46,480
Speaker 2: You know, trade agreements with Japan.

226
00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:51,080
Speaker 1: So he's never been big on any kind of multilateralism

227
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,560
Speaker 1: in general. So this is why we should take his threat.

228
00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,679
Speaker 1: Why he doesn't care about the future of NATO, right,

229
00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,600
Speaker 1: he could take it or leave it. And that is

230
00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:06,199
Speaker 1: why in his sort of why his willingness. Right, when

231
00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,160
Speaker 1: you speak to any gambler, if you're willing to gamble something,

232
00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,439
Speaker 1: if you're willing to gamble your house. Gamble your car means.

233
00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:12,760
Speaker 2: You really don't love your house. You really don't love

234
00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:13,160
Speaker 2: your car.

235
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:19,200
Speaker 1: He's willing to gamble this NATO alliance over Greenland. It's

236
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,040
Speaker 1: less about his desire for Greenland and more I think

237
00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,680
Speaker 1: telling that he just doesn't care whether NATO lat He

238
00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:28,720
Speaker 1: doesn't view it because he doesn't view Russia as a

239
00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:33,320
Speaker 1: threat that is to be contained, where NATO obviously does,

240
00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,680
Speaker 1: and considering what Russia's been doing in Ukraine, I think

241
00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,760
Speaker 1: that it is certainly that. But I want to give

242
00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:41,760
Speaker 1: you a few highlights of this. You should go read it.

243
00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:46,040
Speaker 1: It's on the Council on Foreign Relations, but it's a

244
00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,120
Speaker 1: tour de force and I'm just giving you some top

245
00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:52,080
Speaker 1: lines here of it. Let me just lay out his

246
00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,920
Speaker 1: sort of you know, he sort of sets the table,

247
00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:57,640
Speaker 1: and I think this line here sort of sums it

248
00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:02,080
Speaker 1: up pretty well. Black Wull Rights. We throw around the

249
00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:05,920
Speaker 1: phrase foreign policy chaos a lot, but what we're really

250
00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:09,600
Speaker 1: living through right now is something more fundamental, a collapse

251
00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,760
Speaker 1: of consensus about what America's role in the world even

252
00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:17,080
Speaker 1: is he You know, that says what I was just

253
00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:20,000
Speaker 1: trying to explain better than how I just explained it. Right,

254
00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:24,920
Speaker 1: We had a consensus right, frankly, from Nixon to Carter,

255
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,560
Speaker 1: from Carter to Reagan, from Reagan to Bush Bush to Clinton,

256
00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:32,080
Speaker 1: Clinton to Bush Bush to Obama. It was it was

257
00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,000
Speaker 1: And if you had a President Romney it would have

258
00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,440
Speaker 1: been similar. If you had a President Carry it would

259
00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,840
Speaker 1: have been similar. If you had a President Hillary Clinton,

260
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,040
Speaker 1: it would have been similar. And you saw it sort

261
00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:49,400
Speaker 1: of some similarities with Biden. So because there was a consensus,

262
00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:53,920
Speaker 1: the consensus being multilateralism is good. Free trade, for the

263
00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,040
Speaker 1: most part, has only been more positive and negative. Now,

264
00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:02,000
Speaker 1: obviously it's that globalization. It's been free trade that has

265
00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:07,600
Speaker 1: been seen as as it has been weaponized politically internally.

266
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:10,800
Speaker 1: We can have a longer debate about free trade. But

267
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:15,120
Speaker 1: what has not worked for you know, the expansion of

268
00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:19,000
Speaker 1: free trade has helped America's bottom line hard stop. More

269
00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,120
Speaker 1: people are doing well. All of that is true. The

270
00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:24,440
Speaker 1: problem is places like Ohio and Iowa have been gutted

271
00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,440
Speaker 1: while places like Texas and Alabama have thrived. Right, it's

272
00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:33,320
Speaker 1: you know, so it has been uneven and then when

273
00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:37,680
Speaker 1: that has overlapped with our competitive political arena.

274
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,359
Speaker 2: It is perhaps.

275
00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:45,040
Speaker 1: Made the trade issue almost higher up and sort of

276
00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:49,040
Speaker 1: made the idea of America first a bit more appealing,

277
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:53,840
Speaker 1: So I understand why it has gone. So let me

278
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,360
Speaker 1: sort of outline the stakes he sets, As we've got

279
00:15:56,800 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 1: China is rising, Russia's destabilizing Europe, Middle East volatility, we

280
00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:06,160
Speaker 1: have this fragmentation in the global trade environment, and there's

281
00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:10,960
Speaker 1: just domestic exhaustion in the United States with leadership in general,

282
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,560
Speaker 1: the institutional leaders, all of our leaders of institutions. It's

283
00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:20,400
Speaker 1: not just politics, but it's all around. So as he

284
00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,840
Speaker 1: points out what's missing as a grand strategy, right, we

285
00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:28,840
Speaker 1: don't really have currently an operating system underneath our foreign

286
00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:31,000
Speaker 1: policy because we don't have a consensus on what it

287
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,600
Speaker 1: should be. And in fact, what this really means is

288
00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 1: we're going to go back a little bit to how

289
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 1: you know, to the rudimentary foreign policy of the late

290
00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 1: nineteenth century early twentieth century, where it's going to change

291
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,360
Speaker 1: depending on who the president is a lot, not a little.

292
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:51,040
Speaker 1: Where starting with starting really with FDR and going forward,

293
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,720
Speaker 1: it didn't change much from Truman to Eisenhower, Eisenhower to

294
00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:58,400
Speaker 1: Kennedy and so on and so forth, because we had

295
00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 1: a theory of the case, we operate under it and

296
00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:04,119
Speaker 1: we proceeded. Obviously, ever since the fall of the Berlin

297
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,720
Speaker 1: Wall coupled with nine to eleven, there have been cracks

298
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:12,399
Speaker 1: in this theory of the case going forward, hence the

299
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:17,960
Speaker 1: situation we're in now. So Grand strategy, right, what we

300
00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:22,159
Speaker 1: need is an agreement on how a country uses all

301
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:27,359
Speaker 1: of its power military, economic, diplomatic, technological, and yes, moral.

302
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 2: Right.

303
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,359
Speaker 1: This is not necessarily coming up with a doctrine or

304
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,400
Speaker 1: a slogan or a campaign promise. It is simply trying

305
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 1: to come up with a theory of how a nation

306
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:42,359
Speaker 1: stays safe and prosperous over time. That's ultimately why you

307
00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:47,000
Speaker 1: need a foreign policy to support the safety, security, and

308
00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:52,919
Speaker 1: prosperity of your nation, pure and simple. Okay, And you

309
00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,000
Speaker 1: know what, You're not going to have a grand strategy

310
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:56,159
Speaker 1: without trade offs?

311
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:56,680
Speaker 2: Right?

312
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,960
Speaker 1: Can your nation build everywhere? Can you spread democracy everywhere?

313
00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,720
Speaker 1: When do you pick and choose rights? That's what your

314
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:09,840
Speaker 1: trade offs are. Currently, as he puts it, that there

315
00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:13,600
Speaker 1: are five competing schools of thought of what the Grand

316
00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 1: strategy should be. He calls one the primacy strategy. That

317
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:22,320
Speaker 1: America is the undisputed global superpower. We should prevent any

318
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:26,159
Speaker 1: peer competitor from emerging. That means you, China, we should

319
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 1: have heavily heavy military dominance and do nation building if

320
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:34,119
Speaker 1: it's necessary. Now, one could argue that this kind of

321
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 1: is actually what Trump would prefer, right, that he's less

322
00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,640
Speaker 1: an isolationist and more of a believer in the primacy

323
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,400
Speaker 1: right great powers if you will.

324
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:44,359
Speaker 2: Now.

325
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,960
Speaker 1: Blackwell argues that the reason that view is a faltering

326
00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:53,679
Speaker 1: view is that China already is a peer competitor and

327
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 1: the idea of a unipolar moment is over right. That

328
00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 1: moments seem the end of history. Right right after the

329
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,000
Speaker 1: fall of Berlin Wall, it seemed like we were head

330
00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,280
Speaker 1: to do a unipolar moment, but as it turns out,

331
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:07,320
Speaker 1: we will not. Then there's the idea of liberal internationalism,

332
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,879
Speaker 1: which is arguably the world we did live in for

333
00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 1: about the last fifty years of the twentieth century. The

334
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 1: rules based order, alliances, institutions, promotion of democracy. Military use

335
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 1: is robust, but a last resort. This is struggling because

336
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,320
Speaker 1: this hasn't stopped the rise of China and what China's

337
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 1: done in the South China Sea. It didn't stop Russia

338
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:35,359
Speaker 1: from invading Ukraine, and it didn't stop in Iran from

339
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 1: building this regional proxy group of terrorists that sort of

340
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:47,439
Speaker 1: terrorized the Middle East, and it didn't These institutions didn't

341
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:54,040
Speaker 1: have the power to stop these things. This episode of

342
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,080
Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Quints and

343
00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,200
Speaker 1: I love me Some Quints. New Year, colder days. This

344
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 1: is the moment your winter wardrobe really has to deliver.

345
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 1: If you're craving a winter reset, start with pieces truly

346
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:10,160
Speaker 1: made to last season after season. Quint springs together premium materials,

347
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,960
Speaker 1: thoughtful design, and enduring quality so you stay warm, look sharp,

348
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,919
Speaker 1: and feel your best all season long. Quince has everything

349
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 1: you need men's Mongolian cashmere sweaters.

350
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 2: I have one.

351
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: I have to say, really into it. They have wool coats, leather,

352
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 1: and swayed outerwear that actually hold up to daily wear

353
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:31,160
Speaker 1: and still look good. Their outerwear is especially impressive. Think

354
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 1: down jackets, wool coats, and Italian leather outerwear that keep

355
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:38,640
Speaker 1: you warm when it's actually cold. Each piece made from

356
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 1: premium materials, Quints delivers the same quality as luxury brands

357
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 1: at a fraction of the price. The result is classic

358
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 1: styles you'll love that hold up year after year. You

359
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 1: know me, I love me and my quarter zips. Quince

360
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 1: has quite a few of them. They're great, They're both

361
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 1: light and warm. There's nothing harder than business casual.

362
00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 2: Right, you get these things?

363
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 1: What can I wear? What can you wear at a meeting?

364
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 1: What do you wear on a zoom? I have to say.

365
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 1: It's as if Quinn sort of says, hey, look we've

366
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,400
Speaker 1: got the modern sort of working wardrobe ready for you,

367
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: clothing that looks stylish, looks good, but is actually practical

368
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 1: and isn't going to break the bank. So refresher winter

369
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 1: wardrobe with quints go to quins dot com slash chuck

370
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 1: for free shipping on your order and three hundred and

371
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 1: sixty five day returns. And it's also available in Canada.

372
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 1: That's qui nce dot com, slash chuck, free shipping and

373
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty five day returns quints dot com

374
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: slash chuck.

375
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:39,879
Speaker 2: Then, of course.

376
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:46,119
Speaker 1: There's the idea of some form of isolationism or or restraint,

377
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 1: if you will pulling back, reduce commitments overseas. Let this

378
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 1: be more regional, Let these regions balance themselves for your wars,

379
00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 1: lower costs. The problem with that is security vacuums as

380
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:06,720
Speaker 1: Blackwell rights rarely stay empty, and whenever the US steps back,

381
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 1: rivals step forward, allies hedge, or they arm themselves. Right,

382
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 1: that's not good. Then there's the American nationalism, which is

383
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 1: another sort of thing what Trump's kind of doing, which

384
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: is focusing inward Western hemisphere first, which is how they're

385
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 1: getting the isolationist crowd into Venezuela or Greenland right now.

386
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 1: But that means protectionism, bilateral trade agreements, alliances are more liabilities. Well,

387
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 1: the problem with that is you have to assume that

388
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 1: America's prosperity and security can somehow be separated from the

389
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:43,119
Speaker 1: global order. Right, if we separate ourselves, are we going

390
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:47,119
Speaker 1: to be the economic superpower anymore? And then he throws

391
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 1: out one and he calls trump Ism. So it's basically

392
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: cherry picking all of them, right, which is it's personalized

393
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 1: transactional form, policy deals over alliances, tariffs, our leverage, spheres

394
00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 1: of influence, the institutions. We don't need them because you've

395
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,159
Speaker 1: got I loan can fix it.

396
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 2: Man.

397
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: The problem with that, of course, is it's not a strategy.

398
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 1: It's literally the president's whims. We're going to help the

399
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 1: protesters in Iran up. I've been assured that protesters are

400
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 1: no longer being killed.

401
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:19,880
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm out.

402
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 1: So it's a it's it's you know, we're not in

403
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: a So the question is, can you come up with

404
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 1: a grand strategy that in it that can somehow united

405
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:40,680
Speaker 1: divided America to pursue sort of the same goal, right,

406
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 1: to support America's security and prosperity, and at the same

407
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 1: time help create a stable world. So his answer, Blackwell's

408
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,680
Speaker 1: answer is resolute global leadership, right, And this is really

409
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: the heart of his report. He calls it a hybrid

410
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 1: strategy that he's simply up's reality right, So it borrows

411
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 1: from the military seriousness of his outline of primacy. It

412
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 1: does believe we should strengthen certain alliances and institutions that

413
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 1: were hallmarks of the liberal internationalism. But we wouldn't get

414
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:26,719
Speaker 1: into nation building hint, hint, Venezuela. There wouldn't be you know,

415
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 1: disengagement is not cost free, and it wouldn't have performative

416
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 1: deal making. But you'd have to accept some And this

417
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 1: is where I think Trump is leaning, and I think

418
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 1: you've seen arguably this is where Barack Obama was. But

419
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 1: it wasn't politically politically popular to say it at the time.

420
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,159
Speaker 1: But in this case, what Blackwell is saying, you've got

421
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 1: to just assume the following. China is a peer competitor.

422
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: This is not a temporary problem that can be that

423
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 1: can be changed, that can be democratized. It's not going

424
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: to happen. And yet what you know, there's nothing the

425
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 1: United States can do to to sort of to sort

426
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 1: of reshape how China deals with its population. It's not

427
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: going to matter. But his core assumptions are China's a

428
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 1: peer competitor, deal with it. Power does still matter. Alliances

429
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 1: do matter because it multiplies power. The institutions matter as

430
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 1: long as it's backed by strength. And don't promote democracy.

431
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 1: Don't use the military as an attempt to promote democracy.

432
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 2: I e. Iraq.

433
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: As he writes, force is justified to to protect vital interests,

434
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 1: not to remake societies. And what's interesting here is is

435
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 1: it Trump kind of stumbles into this. I think this

436
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 1: is where Jade Vance really is. I think he's one

437
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 1: of the purest This is not where Marco Rubi is.

438
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 2: Right.

439
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 1: Marco Rubio, you know, talked Trump into doing Venezuela because

440
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 1: he does want to remake a society. He does want

441
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 1: to remake Venezuela. He does want to remake Cuba, and

442
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 1: by the way, Donald Trump and a whole bunch of

443
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 1: others would like to remake Iraan. So it is I

444
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 1: think this is I do think this is a key

445
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 1: point though, because every time we've tried to involve ourselves

446
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:31,159
Speaker 1: in remaking society, particularly if we're on our own doing it,

447
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: it has not gone well. Right, I mean, Iraq's the

448
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 1: best example. But frankly, the reason why there's so much

449
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: skepticism of what America is doing in the western hetmospheres.

450
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:41,919
Speaker 1: You know, we have a history of trying to do

451
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 1: this in Latin America and it is not gone well. Now,

452
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 1: he still think what the reason Blackwell thinks that America

453
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 1: essentially still can can control the rules of the global

454
00:26:55,840 --> 00:27:00,160
Speaker 1: order is as follows. Where the United States alone own

455
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 1: is twenty six percent of the globe's GDP. We still

456
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 1: are the world's most powerful military, We still are leading

457
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 1: the world in AI, in advanced tech. The dollar is

458
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 1: the dominant currency, despite what all these kill the Fed

459
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: people are trying to do. Though, if you want to

460
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 1: kill the FED, that would weaken the dollar and weaken

461
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 1: the United States, and China could never create a global

462
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 1: alliance network quite like how the United States could do

463
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 1: it right. China couldn't create an alternative block. Yes, there

464
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 1: are the Brick Nations of Brazil, Brick Briic, which was

465
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 1: this loose confederation that was trying to establish itself as

466
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 1: a counter to the G seven back in the day.

467
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 1: It's the B is Brazil, the R is Russia, the

468
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 1: I as India, the SA is China. But as we've seen,

469
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 1: India and China are not necessarily ready to be to

470
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,640
Speaker 1: be on the same page. Perhaps Russia and China are

471
00:27:55,720 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 1: for military strategic purposes, but I think there's a lot

472
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 1: of truth to that. There's only the United States can

473
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:10,880
Speaker 1: create some alliances that could stick. You know, the TPP,

474
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 1: that Transpacific Partnership that Obama and Hillary Clinton were trying

475
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 1: to create as a counterweight in Asia to China, that

476
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 1: became suddenly both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump just sort

477
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 1: of attacked it, and then Hillary Clinton backed away from it.

478
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 1: The Republican Party backed away from it. This was going

479
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: to be Asian Native Now we were going to call

480
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 1: it a trade pack, but it was going to be

481
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 1: the building blocks of essentially a security pact.

482
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 2: As well.

483
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 1: Right, once you're aligned on economics, you're going to be

484
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: aligned on security because you both have the same things

485
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 1: to lose. There was it is probably one of the

486
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: greatest missed opportunities, and perhaps in forty years, fifty years,

487
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 1: we will go back and point to it as one

488
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: of the just biggest missions that we made, one of

489
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 1: the you know, there's a lot of bad consequences of

490
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: the fork in the road of the twenty sixteen election.

491
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: This could be a much bigger one than we ever

492
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: talk about. So he concludes, you know, he's with the following.

493
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 1: He says, he judges the strategies. They got to judge

494
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: each strategy on these three things. Prosperity, security, and legitimacy. Right,

495
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: open trade still matters, and it's better for the United

496
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 1: States to have open trade. It's worse for our economy

497
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: when we don't. Innovation will always trump protectionism. You can't

498
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: protect an industry from competitors. You can't do that. You

499
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: think you can, but you can't, and if you try.

500
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: I mean, look, we're finding out an AI right. We

501
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: were trying to hoard all these chips here in the

502
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 1: United States, trying to make it harder for China to

503
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 1: move to compete with US on AI and yet their

504
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 1: deep seek model is doing what competing with our guys

505
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 1: on AI. Tariff's weaken long term growth. That's just a fact, right.

506
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 1: The higher the tariffs are, weaker the economies get in

507
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: both countries that are having a terrified i'm.

508
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 2: The security front.

509
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 1: If you have a forward defense, you're more likely to

510
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 1: prevent war.

511
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 2: Right. The more.

512
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: Alliances we have around the world. That that was the

513
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 1: whole point of NATO that hopefully it would never have

514
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: to get involve itself in a hot war with Russia,

515
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 1: that there were so many bases strewn throughout Europe that

516
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 1: Russia wouldn't dare right, which is why there is a

517
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 1: fair what if question which is as follows, what if

518
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: the United States, when they got Ukraine to get rid

519
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 1: of its nuclear weapons after the fall of the Soviet Union,

520
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: had also invited Ukraine into NATO, then Russia never invades

521
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 1: and we would have already had military basis inside of Ukraine.

522
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 1: Just something to think about on that front. But he

523
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 1: also believes the next grand strategy of sort of a

524
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 1: foreign policy that perhaps left and right can all agree on,

525
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 1: is that we're going to have to accept that the

526
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: Indo Pacific region is the central theater of this essentially

527
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 1: great power competition. So, as he argues, trump Ism has

528
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: burned legitimacy faster than it has gained leverage. Right, he

529
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,960
Speaker 1: may have some short term wins with these tariff threats.

530
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 1: He may be using the end of NATO as a

531
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: way to try to get Greenland. But what is he doing.

532
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: He's eroding the relationship the United States has with Europe.

533
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: And the next time we ask try to get Europe

534
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: involved in something, they're going to be skeptical to get

535
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: involved with the United States because hey, maybe President x

536
00:31:59,880 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 1: is work wants to work with the Europeans, but the

537
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 1: next president may not. So here's the uncomfortable truth that

538
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 1: this paper does leave us with, which is America doesn't

539
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 1: get to choose whether it shapes the world. All we

540
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 1: get to choose is whether we get to shape it

541
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: deliberately or not, or is it accidentally or is it chaotically.

542
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 1: If the US retreats, someone else fills the vacuum. I've

543
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 1: used the phrase, you may not want America to be

544
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 1: the world's beat cop, but you're But if we're not

545
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 1: the world's beat cop, you're somebody else is going to

546
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 1: try to be and you're not going to like that.

547
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 1: That's what filling a vacuum means there. And if the

548
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: US blusters, allies hedge, and we've now got allies hedging

549
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: all over the place. If the US leads with more

550
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 1: resolutely and with sort of a strategy that makes sense

551
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 1: and doesn't come across as chaotic, then suddenly we get

552
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 1: to preserve our leverage without having overreach. So look, I

553
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: think I think Blackwell's Deep Dive is something that everybody

554
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 1: running for president needs to read. They don't have to

555
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 1: agree with all of his recommendations, but I think the

556
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: larger vision he's trying to to to share here is

557
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 1: that look, we you know, I think putting it out

558
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 1: when he's doing it is essentially saying, look, this needs

559
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 1: to be the next presidential election. We need presidential candidates

560
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 1: that at least accept the premise we need a strategy

561
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 1: because Trump doesn't have one, and Trump's never going to

562
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: have one. Right, the story is Trump, It's always been Trump.

563
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 1: The show is Trump. It's just personalized. You know, he

564
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: could be right now he's running a country, but he

565
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: could be running a gas station. It doesn't matter right

566
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 1: like he's that's everything is personalized here. So the reason

567
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 1: we need a grand strategy is for our even mid

568
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: and long term security, both physical security and economic security.

569
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 1: So a grand strategy isn't about dominance or virtue. It's

570
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 1: about deciding which risks you choose to manage and which

571
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:36,399
Speaker 1: risks you absolutely absolutely cannot afford to ignore. Right now,

572
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 1: we don't have one. Trump Ism is in some ways

573
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 1: undoing a bunch of stuff. But the next president is

574
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 1: going to have to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

575
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 1: No one is saying we need to go backwards, but

576
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 1: we need something better than what we have now, and

577
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 1: we need something more realistic than what we have now.

578
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,439
Speaker 1: So look, Ian Bremer and I are going to get

579
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 1: get into more of this. We're going to get specific here.

580
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 1: But this just literally Robert Blackwell's piece just hit. And

581
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 1: you know I'm a geek for this stuff, so I

582
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 1: dove right into it. Do check it out on the

583
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 1: Council on Foreign Relations site. It's the type of sort

584
00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,839
Speaker 1: of rigorous scholarship that is necessary in this coin. Look,

585
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 1: you're not getting this in your day to day news

586
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 1: feeds and all this stuff. You're not going to get

587
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 1: something like this, but the importance of an essay like this.

588
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 1: Robert Blackwell is somebody that presidential candidates for years have

589
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 1: gone to for frankly, to get educated about the world right.

590
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 1: He's one of many of these folks in this sort

591
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 1: of in this foreign policy space.

592
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:49,799
Speaker 2: That have served that role.

593
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: So this is why this is one of those pay

594
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 1: attention to it. I promise you things you read in

595
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,800
Speaker 1: here today you're going to hear out of the mouths

596
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: of presidential candidates come twenty twenty seven or twenty eight.

597
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: As you might imagine. I've got a few notebook items

598
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 1: that I've been sort of holding a bit, and also

599
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 1: a few things that I think.

600
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 2: Are worth highlighting. Look about.

601
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 1: Late last month, I had a guest on named Adam Gentilsen.

602
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,800
Speaker 1: He was starting a new democratic think tank that was

603
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 1: a bit trying to be frankly, more mainstream, a little

604
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 1: less progressive. It's called the Searchlight Institute. So they put

605
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 1: out a memo about the issue of what happened in

606
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 1: Minneapolis to Renee Good, and it was basically a recommendation,

607
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 1: And the recommendation is don't fall for the abolish ice messaging.

608
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 1: Let me read from the memo and then I'll give

609
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: you my two cents after it. But I want to

610
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 1: read a bit from the memo so that you get

611
00:36:56,560 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 1: the full perspective. Here, look at they lay out what

612
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:05,720
Speaker 1: happened to renee Good, and the memos rights as follows.

613
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: This is not an incident that happened in isolation. The

614
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 1: Trump administration has been deploying ICE agents, often in conjunction

615
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: with law enforcement personnel from other agencies like the FBIA CPB,

616
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: to cities all over the country in a concerted effort

617
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 1: to instill fear and immigrant communities. American citizens have been

618
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 1: collateral damage in this campaign. DHS personnel have fired their

619
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 1: weapons at least sixteen times this year during immigration enforcement actions,

620
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 1: and ICE has erroneously detained at least one hundred and

621
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 1: seventy US citizens. This comes even as DHS is significantly

622
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:41,240
Speaker 1: relaxed training and vetting requirements for new hires at ICE.

623
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,399
Speaker 1: This is something I've been obsessing over, guys, and it's

624
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 1: sprint to double the size of the agency. Those horrendous

625
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 1: recruiting ads I've been highlighting and telling you about, and

626
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 1: then this memo notes reducing the time they spend learning

627
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 1: the law on how to apply it safely at the

628
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 1: Federal Law Enforcement Training Center from six months to six weeks.

629
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 1: That's right, these new ICE agents instead of getting six

630
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: months of training, they're getting six weeks of training. You

631
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 1: think that's gonna You think that's good, You think that helps,

632
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,879
Speaker 1: and it's placed. And of course they've also placed as

633
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 1: the memo rights unqualified political operatives and key positions that

634
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 1: have historically been designated for career law enforcement officials. Now

635
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 1: they get into the politics of this. Confronted by these excesses,

636
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 1: some on the left have renewed their calls to quote

637
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 1: abolish ICE. Then the searchlight folks write this, but let's

638
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 1: be clear that advocating for abolishing ICE is tantamount to

639
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: advocating for stopping enforcement of all of our immigration laws

640
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 1: in the interior the United States, a policy position that

641
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: is both wrong on the merits and at odds with

642
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: the American public on the issue. Instead, Democrats should embrace

643
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 1: an aggressive plan to rebuild ICE based on two concepts

644
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 1: reform and retrain. I'm going to cut through a little

645
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 1: bit further here. First of all, they go through and

646
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 1: they believe that in some ways the Trump administration is

647
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 1: setting a trap for Democrats because they have used lawless

648
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 1: tactics in their attempts at enforcing immigration policy. But as

649
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 1: they write, responding to this kind of lawlessness by saying

650
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 1: you want to abolish ICE is exchanging one kind of

651
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 1: lawlessness for another. It means that you support getting rid

652
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: of the agency responsible for enforcing immigration and custom laws,

653
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 1: creating a lawless system where people who enter the country

654
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 1: illegally can stay here indefinitely, leaving no agency charged with

655
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 1: finding and removing them. This will inevitably incentivize others to

656
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 1: come to the United States illegally. Abolish ICE is not

657
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 1: some proxy for more humane immigration enforcement, or to change

658
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 1: ICE's culture to adhere to do process, or to impose

659
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 1: accountability on rogue officers.

660
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 2: Is it's advocating.

661
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 1: For an extreme And then they continue, unless you truly

662
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 1: believe that the United States should not have an agency

663
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 1: that enforces immigration and customs laws within our borders, and

664
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 1: you want to increase illegal immigration, you should not say

665
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 1: you want to abolish ICE. And then it goes on

666
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: to say, look, this should be a moment learn from

667
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 1: the defund mistake. So when it comes to ICE, they're saying,

668
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 1: say what you mean. And the point was during the

669
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 1: whole defund the police, that is actually not what those

670
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 1: that were accused of wanting to defund the police were

671
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 1: actually advocating. They weren't advocating to get rid of the police.

672
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 1: They were advocating a reallocation of resources. They were advocating

673
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 1: a better sense of training. But that isn't what people

674
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 1: were hearing. They were just simply hearing defund. So this

675
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 1: is their alternative. An aggressive plan can be summed up

676
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:53,800
Speaker 1: in two words. They argue reform and retrain. Reform ice

677
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:57,399
Speaker 1: root and branch, including reminding people we are a nation

678
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 1: of laws that there shouldn't be they should these guys

679
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 1: shouldn't be allowed to wear masks, that no one is

680
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: above the law, there is not indiscriminate enforcement, which is

681
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 1: clearly politically motivated indiscriminate enforcement, and there should be an

682
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 1: outside oversight to this. It should not be done internally.

683
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 1: And then retrain. What do they mean by retrain? Ice

684
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 1: officers need to undergo rigorous and recurring training on use

685
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 1: of force policies so that they can understand the law.

686
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 1: I should be trained on community policing practices.

687
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 2: They advocate.

688
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 1: They should identify and weed out the bad apples, rescind

689
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 1: Trump administration of policies that have significantly relaxed vetting and

690
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 1: standards for new employees of ICE, and then right size ICE.

691
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 1: One could argue it is suddenly becoming too big, because

692
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 1: it does look like it's becoming some sort of personalized

693
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:55,720
Speaker 1: law enforcement agency. Anyway, look these you know, I understand

694
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 1: the passion of this. You heard me the other day saying,

695
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not you know, be careful of the

696
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 1: abolished ICE messaging, because this is the issue isn't ICE.

697
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 1: The issue is who's in charge of it. The issue

698
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 1: is who's in charge of policy, who's in charge of training.

699
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 1: We've gone we're the recruiting videos are using the wrong language,

700
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 1: recruiting the wrong type of person. They're incentivizing a certain

701
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 1: type of muscularity in law enforcement that actually comes across

702
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 1: as pretty unconstitutional. But I'm very curious to see if

703
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 1: these you know, this was this was the whole point

704
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 1: of why Gentlesen started this. He felt as if that

705
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 1: the a lot of the advocacy groups messaging we're leaning

706
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 1: too far to the left and not really talking to

707
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 1: the center. That's sort of you know, person that says, yeah,

708
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't want. You know, it goes to

709
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: what I've been saying, where they they agree with the

710
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 1: goal of what Trump is advocating, but they don't like

711
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 1: his tactics. And right now they think that the Democrats

712
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: don't share some.

713
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:10,280
Speaker 2: Of those goals.

714
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:17,399
Speaker 1: And obviously, what search Licenses argument is is make it

715
00:43:17,560 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 1: about the tactics, don't make it about whether or not

716
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 1: we should have enforcement of our borders. I'll be curious

717
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 1: to see if this tamps down the abolished ICE rhetoric

718
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 1: or because of the passion and because of the frankly

719
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 1: the awfulness of what happened, do more voters and more

720
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 1: lawmakers think that ICE is irredeemable. All I would say is,

721
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: if you get rid of ICE, I promise you you're

722
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 1: just going to want to have an agency that's similar

723
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 1: to it. Look, we've had periods of time where the

724
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 1: FBI was not trusted at all, and we've had periods

725
00:43:58,040 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 1: of time when you've had better leadership at the FB.

726
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 1: I that it has been pristine and really trusted. Ditto

727
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 1: with the NYPD didto with You know, The point is

728
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:10,760
Speaker 1: is that I don't think these institutions are irredeemable. You

729
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 1: just need to have better leadership, better training, and better accountability.

730
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: It's it's again, I'm curious to see we're going to

731
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:27,520
Speaker 1: have some growing democratic primaries. Do we you know is

732
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:32,479
Speaker 1: this used as a wedge inside democratic primaries. We'll find

733
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:34,759
Speaker 1: out in Texas, we may find out in Michigan, we

734
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 1: may find out in Maine. Or do you start having copycats?

735
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 2: Right?

736
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,840
Speaker 1: Or look, the all of a sudden, all the primaries

737
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 1: in Minnesota are going to be fascinating to hear. It

738
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 1: may it may be something that primary voters they want

739
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 1: the passion uh and the anger of abolish ice, right.

740
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:57,800
Speaker 1: It's like, you know, I'd say that's the equivalent of

741
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 1: punching a hole in drywall. Feels good for the moment,

742
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: but then you've got to go to home depot and

743
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 1: figure out how to patch up the hole in your wall.

744
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 1: So something to do on something to think about. And

745
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:12,960
Speaker 1: I'm curious of your action here. If you think, hey,

746
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:16,319
Speaker 1: you know what, Chuck, let me tell you why they're

747
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 1: wrong and you're wrong about this and I should be abolished.

748
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 1: I'd love to hear from you on this, remember, asked

749
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 1: Chuck at Thechucktodcast Dot com all right, let's sneak in

750
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 1: a break. When we come back my conversation with Ian Bremer.

751
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:33,359
Speaker 1: We tour the world. We begin in Venezuela. We touch

752
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 1: on Venezuela, Cuba, Haiti, Greenland, Ukraine, Aaran, Israel, the Gulf States, China, Taiwan.

753
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 1: I'm not sure what we left out. We'll find out

754
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 1: after you listen to the listen to the interview. So

755
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:56,799
Speaker 1: with that, let's get a quick break. Having good life

756
00:45:56,840 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 1: insurance is incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I

757
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 1: was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have

758
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 1: any money. He didn't leave us in the best shape.

759
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: My mother, single mother, now widow, myself sixteen trying to

760
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 1: figure out how am I going to pay for college

761
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:15,760
Speaker 1: and lo and behold, my dad had one life insurance

762
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 1: policy that we found wasn't a lot, but it was

763
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 1: important at the time, and it's why I was able

764
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:25,360
Speaker 1: to go to college. Little did he know how important

765
00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 1: that would be in that moment. Well guess what. That's

766
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 1: why I am here to tell you about Etho's life.

767
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 1: They can provide you with peace of mind knowing your

768
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 1: family is protected even if the worst comes to pass.

769
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:41,240
Speaker 1: Ethos is an online platform that makes getting life insurance

770
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 1: fast and easy, all designed to protect your family's future

771
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:47,919
Speaker 1: in minutes, not months. There's no complicated process, and it's

772
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 1: one hundred percent online. There's no medical exam require you

773
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:54,799
Speaker 1: just answer a few health questions online. You can get

774
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 1: a quote in as little as ten minutes, and you

775
00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:00,360
Speaker 1: can get same day coverage without ever leaving your home.

776
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 1: You can get up to three million dollars in coverage,

777
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 1: and some policies start as low as two dollars a

778
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 1: day that would be billed monthly. As of March twenty

779
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,319
Speaker 1: twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number one no

780
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 1: medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect your family

781
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:19,719
Speaker 1: with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free quoted ethos

782
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. So again, that's Ethos dot com

783
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:28,640
Speaker 1: slash chuck. Application times may vary and the rates themselves

784
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 1: may vary as well, but trust me, life insurance is

785
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 1: something you should really think about, especially if you've got

786
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 1: a growing family. How unsettled do you feel about the globe?

787
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:44,360
Speaker 1: How unsettled do you feel about American politics? Obviously of

788
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 1: the year, I Deem twenty twenty six, A year of

789
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 1: living dangerously. I think, whether it's what we saw in Minnesota,

790
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 1: feels like we're a spark away from something not good

791
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: in this country, and we have a world that feels

792
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 1: unsettled everywhere, whether it's Venezuela, whether it's Aron, whether it's Taiwan,

793
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 1: whether it's Ukraine.

794
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 2: Well, you get the picture.

795
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 1: So who better to bring in to talk about all

796
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 1: the risk and the year of living dangerously that my

797
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: Friendie and Bremer of your Raisier group and and Ian.

798
00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 2: Look you you.

799
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 1: I started off a bit glum for the year, and

800
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 1: you had you played a big role in that. Your

801
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 1: annual it's your annual risk list of top risks out there, frankly,

802
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 1: only reinforced what I think what was already I was

803
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 1: sort of seeing domestically, and certainly I sort of refer

804
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 1: to myself these days as a political anthropologist when it

805
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:43,640
Speaker 1: comes to domestic politics. But you've got your pulse on

806
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 1: international political science as well. So you painted a picture

807
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 1: of Look, I want to quote Doc Brown and in

808
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 1: a back to the future where we're going there are

809
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 1: no roads. I don't know where we're going, but I

810
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 1: know there are no roads, and we're headed somewhere that

811
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 1: by the end of this year you and I may

812
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 1: meet up again going holy shit, how did we get here?

813
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:16,319
Speaker 3: I mean this, It's not like there isn't good news

814
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:22,440
Speaker 3: out there, right. I mean, for example, last twenty years, most.

815
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 2: Of the people I know in the.

816
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 3: International affairs space thought that we were heading towards US

817
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:32,919
Speaker 3: China confrontation, new Cold war, you know, could could lead

818
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 3: to something even worse than that.

819
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 2: That That's not where we are, right, I mean right.

820
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 1: And I also think when we can talk about Iran

821
00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:45,439
Speaker 1: for a minute, we're about to see a Middle East

822
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:46,239
Speaker 1: that maybe.

823
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:51,800
Speaker 2: A whole new world in a good way. Long maybe

824
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: maybe I'd love to see that.

825
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 3: I think we're still We're still farther from that than

826
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 3: I'd like us to be. There's a lot of capacity

827
00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 3: and willingness to press and a lot of Ronnie and

828
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 3: civilians that are dead today that weren't a week ago.

829
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 3: But still, I mean, it's not like everything in the

830
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 3: world is blowing up, and the response to the United

831
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 3: States is not purely destructive. I mean, frankly, you know,

832
00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 3: the EU and Mercasore just did one of the world's

833
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 3: largest free trade deals that wouldn't have happened if it

834
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 3: wasn't for Trump.

835
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:27,440
Speaker 1: Because they're I talked about this the last time I

836
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 1: had you on. I think Donald Trump's making Europe great again. Well,

837
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,399
Speaker 1: I wouldn't go that, I think, well, but the point

838
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 1: what I mean by it is Europe needed to stop

839
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 1: relying on the United States.

840
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 2: So they need a kick in the ass. And they're

841
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:42,920
Speaker 2: still not going to make it.

842
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 1: But yes, I agree, and Donald Trump's presidency turned out

843
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 1: to be the kick of the ass that at least

844
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:48,640
Speaker 1: they finally noticed.

845
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,240
Speaker 3: Donald Trump is definitely that kick in the ass.

846
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:54,360
Speaker 2: I think that's clear. I think that's clear.

847
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 3: For the Europeans, for the Canadians, for the Mexicans, for

848
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:01,920
Speaker 3: some for the remaining regime in Venezuela. I mean, my god,

849
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:03,799
Speaker 3: he represents a kick in the ass to an awful

850
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 3: lot of people.

851
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 2: But of course, you know, the big thing is that

852
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,959
Speaker 2: the uncertain we have seen the uncertainty, we've seen the risk,

853
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 2: and he is us right, I mean, that is that

854
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:12,719
Speaker 2: is the reason why.

855
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 1: Well, that's what's so, But that's not even you know,

856
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 1: it's funny. You made it your top risk, and yet

857
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 1: I feel like two years ago, if you had done that,

858
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,480
Speaker 1: it would have seen controversial. It would have been weird

859
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 1: if we weren't the top risk, right, shocking, Right, we

860
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 1: are at the center of everybody else's instability.

861
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:32,840
Speaker 2: Yep, Yep, yep, no questions. A weird place for America

862
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 2: to be, yep. But in part it is the.

863
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 3: Logical conclusion of decades of Americans of different stripes, increasingly

864
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:47,360
Speaker 3: saying we don't like the role that we have carved

865
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:50,239
Speaker 3: out for ourselves globally. We don't really believe in it

866
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 3: in different ways, whether it's foreign aid or promotion of

867
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:58,800
Speaker 3: rule of law and democracy, or free trade or collective

868
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:02,279
Speaker 3: security alliance is all these wars, So that that's a

869
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,400
Speaker 3: big piece of it, right, And then there's the domestic

870
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:10,760
Speaker 3: piece too, with two completely different worldviews.

871
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 2: Housed in one country. Right.

872
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:16,760
Speaker 3: And and you know when those things start to really break,

873
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 3: when those assumptions are fundamentally questioned by a guy who is,

874
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 3: you know, thrives on being a chaos actor, then then

875
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 3: it's not a surprise that we're driving that.

876
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 1: Uncertain Let's start in our hemisphere and then move. So

877
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 1: one of the things I like to correct with some

878
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:42,399
Speaker 1: of my friends on the left actually is that there

879
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 1: hasn't been regime change in Venezuela. The regime is still

880
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 1: in power. Yes, right, they've only extracted one individual. How

881
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:53,920
Speaker 1: do we get two individuals?

882
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:57,359
Speaker 2: Come on, don't disparage the wife like that? Sure enough,

883
00:52:57,440 --> 00:52:58,439
Speaker 2: fair enough, fair enough?

884
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 1: Where How how do we get to a better place

885
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 1: in Venezuela without American boots on the ground.

886
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:08,879
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, let's face it, getting to a better

887
00:53:08,960 --> 00:53:12,839
Speaker 3: Venezuela with American boots on the ground might be more challenging, right,

888
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 3: I mean, given our recent experience in Venezuela is not Iraq, right,

889
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 3: It's not Afghanistan. It has recent experience with democracy, it

890
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 3: doesn't have massive internal sectarian divides. There are a lot

891
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 3: of exiled elites.

892
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:33,879
Speaker 2: That would love to be able to.

893
00:53:33,840 --> 00:53:37,920
Speaker 3: Come back, and the power asymmetries are massive with the

894
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 3: United States right there in the hemisphere, right, So, I mean,

895
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 3: there are lots of reasons to believe that, at least

896
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 3: in the near term, they are going to behave themselves

897
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:54,360
Speaker 3: more because they understand the orls they are going to.

898
00:53:54,719 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 2: They're going to listen to the Americans on oil.

899
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 3: They have freed a small number of political prisoners, but

900
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:05,759
Speaker 3: high level prisoners. By the way, leaders of in the

901
00:54:05,800 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 3: opposition movement because Marco Rubio and others told them they

902
00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 3: had to. So, you know, the early days on this

903
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:19,840
Speaker 3: are without American troops, but with the credibility and presence

904
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 3: of all of that military capacity, and with the willingness

905
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 3: to prod the IMF to provide some support over time

906
00:54:30,160 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 3: and get some private sector companies with guarantees to actually

907
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:40,360
Speaker 3: back them up, that there are reasons why in the

908
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 3: near term this will go well. The much more the

909
00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:48,480
Speaker 3: problem with Venezuela is much more about when we start

910
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:54,280
Speaker 3: talking about actual power sharing, which the people want, you know, frankly,

911
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 3: Marco and others around Trump, even if Trump doesn't.

912
00:54:56,880 --> 00:54:57,759
Speaker 2: Care, they want it.

913
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:03,800
Speaker 3: And and yet the government, the existing regime will resist

914
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 3: that with every sinew of their body.

915
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 1: My concern is that Trump doesn't care about the democracy piece.

916
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:13,800
Speaker 1: If the regime does what he asks, he's going to

917
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:15,440
Speaker 1: be fine with leaving them in place.

918
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 3: Well, but I'm suggesting that that won't work right. In

919
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:22,920
Speaker 3: other words, that when you have when you have that

920
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:26,680
Speaker 3: many people in the country that now see a weaker,

921
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:30,040
Speaker 3: more vulnerable military that's been bloodied up by the US,

922
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:34,200
Speaker 3: and they overwhelmingly want their opposition in place, they will

923
00:55:34,239 --> 00:55:36,520
Speaker 3: clamor for it. That when you have a lot of

924
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:42,759
Speaker 3: MAGA supporters in Mara a Lago who are themselves exiles,

925
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:44,960
Speaker 3: that's a strong community.

926
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 2: They're going to be pushing for it.

927
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:54,040
Speaker 3: Marco and others that really did organize the TikTok on

928
00:55:54,760 --> 00:55:59,400
Speaker 3: these attacks also they want it. And so I don't

929
00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 3: even though Trump, Trump's the decider. Trump's got the power,

930
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:07,839
Speaker 3: he's the president. But and he doesn't care. I agree,

931
00:56:07,880 --> 00:56:09,600
Speaker 3: he doesn't care about what kind of regime it is.

932
00:56:09,960 --> 00:56:13,680
Speaker 3: But I think that he can't. He can't just ignore

933
00:56:13,719 --> 00:56:14,440
Speaker 3: that issue.

934
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 2: Do you see it?

935
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:19,240
Speaker 1: Like we help that there's elections in six months a year,

936
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:24,399
Speaker 1: what's your you know, is there anybody thinking about this?

937
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 1: Like okay, when what's the soonest? We can actually hold

938
00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:29,840
Speaker 1: national elections?

939
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 3: Soonest is probably six months more realistic is twelve to eighteen.

940
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 3: And again, as they start talking about it, and it

941
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:41,239
Speaker 3: won't be the first thing they discuss, but as they

942
00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 3: get to that process, what I think we will see

943
00:56:45,200 --> 00:56:49,879
Speaker 3: is an effort by the military to give give on

944
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 3: many other grounds and obfuse gate, which is you know

945
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:57,920
Speaker 3: what they've done before, reasons why it can't be done soon?

946
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:01,400
Speaker 3: And here are the mechanism, and here are some candidates

947
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:04,839
Speaker 3: we can't tolerate, and all sorts of ways to push out,

948
00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 3: water down and ensure that they are the ones that

949
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 3: control everything. But ultimately, I'm not going to sit here

950
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 3: and tell you a power sharing agreement is impossible. You

951
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 3: couldn't just bring in the opposition and tell the military

952
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 3: you're out. But then again, we all know that Paul

953
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 3: Bremer doing that in a rock that was a disaster.

954
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:31,720
Speaker 4: Like removing the Bathists, removing the security and the military

955
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 4: forces was what the US should have never done, never done.

956
00:57:38,280 --> 00:57:41,800
Speaker 1: There are a handful of intriguing elections this year in

957
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:46,520
Speaker 1: Latin America, Columbia, Colombia is fascinating to me, in Brazil

958
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:50,200
Speaker 1: or probably the two big ones. There's Peru as well.

959
00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 1: How much will anti Americanism be part of those campaigns?

960
00:57:58,320 --> 00:57:58,640
Speaker 2: Now?

961
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 1: And you know my great fear is, look, you know,

962
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 1: I'm I'm. I have a friend who does a lot

963
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 1: of work in Colombia has not been a big fan

964
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:11,800
Speaker 1: of this. This political party is hopeful that the other

965
00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 1: political party comes back. And I know that a lot

966
00:58:15,720 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 1: of American business folks feel that way. And it looks

967
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:21,560
Speaker 1: like that had been a glide path.

968
00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 2: But now I.

969
00:58:22,640 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 1: Wonder does Trump and does our involvement in Venezuela spark

970
00:58:31,000 --> 00:58:33,600
Speaker 1: a backlash in a Colombia spark a backlash?

971
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 2: Yeah? No, and it doesn't.

972
00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 3: So it's a good it's a really good question, especially

973
00:58:38,200 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 3: because we've seen that backlash change outcomes in Canada, right,

974
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:48,280
Speaker 3: We've seen that backlash change outcomes in Australia in both cases,

975
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:49,480
Speaker 3: and I.

976
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 1: Would argue Lula's political standing has been strengthened due to Trump.

977
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:55,600
Speaker 3: A little bit, a little bit much less so, but

978
00:58:55,680 --> 00:58:59,040
Speaker 3: a little bit definitely after Trump, you know, sort of

979
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:03,240
Speaker 3: basically said we're gariffing you because of the bull jail

980
00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 3: term that was handed down by the Supreme Court. Not

981
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:11,440
Speaker 3: not Lula, right, but but actually in Latin America, in

982
00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:18,560
Speaker 3: these countries, number one issue overwhelmingly right now is domestic security,

983
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 3: and and that plays out so Bukele Nave in l

984
00:59:24,520 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 3: Salvador is by far the most popular leader, even though

985
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:31,080
Speaker 3: he's a pro Trump guy. He's not popular because he's

986
00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:35,800
Speaker 3: pro Trump. He's popular because he's actually really like wielded

987
00:59:35,840 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 3: the fists in creating security.

988
00:59:39,320 --> 00:59:42,320
Speaker 2: And one could argue he's broken a lot of eggs

989
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:43,919
Speaker 2: to make that omelet right, A.

990
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:47,200
Speaker 1: Lot of guys I had, all, uh, you'll appreciate this.

991
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 1: I teach a class for usc UH here in d C.

992
00:59:51,200 --> 00:59:53,840
Speaker 1: That's called how Washington Works. And last semester I had

993
00:59:53,880 --> 01:00:02,480
Speaker 1: a an El Salvadorian student who said, yeah, boy, my

994
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:05,360
Speaker 1: parents and I don't speak about Bouqueta anymore. Like it

995
01:00:05,480 --> 01:00:08,200
Speaker 1: was just like and she said, basically, if you live

996
01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:10,120
Speaker 1: in al Savador, you love the guy. If you don't

997
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:11,840
Speaker 1: live there, you don't and you're al Savador and you

998
01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:14,320
Speaker 1: don't like the guy. It's a it's a fascinating it's

999
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 1: like ninety percent local approval, and it's it's true approval, right,

1000
01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:18,919
Speaker 1: And it's.

1001
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:19,640
Speaker 2: Just because she does.

1002
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:22,360
Speaker 1: Look, it was so unsafe, right, It was so.

1003
01:00:22,720 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 3: That when Maduro gets taken out, and he is not

1004
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:32,200
Speaker 3: just a bad guy, but he is actually coordinating narco

1005
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 3: cartels right across the region. And he also did lead

1006
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:41,160
Speaker 3: to the destabilization of a lot of countries, including Colombia

1007
01:00:41,200 --> 01:00:47,600
Speaker 3: because of eight million right displaced Venezuelans. They are delighted

1008
01:00:48,320 --> 01:00:52,560
Speaker 3: to see the back of Maduro and they want security

1009
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:55,880
Speaker 3: in their own countries. So I know, and the secondary

1010
01:00:55,920 --> 01:00:59,920
Speaker 3: issue is the local economy. So I don't think that

1011
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 3: a backlash. Mexico is a different story because it's so

1012
01:01:02,680 --> 01:01:03,680
Speaker 3: integrated with the.

1013
01:01:03,680 --> 01:01:05,480
Speaker 2: US and their economy is not doing.

1014
01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:09,440
Speaker 3: Well though Shanebaum is actually quite popular. But for Columbia

1015
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:13,880
Speaker 3: and for Brazil, I don't actually think that the Trump

1016
01:01:13,960 --> 01:01:17,120
Speaker 3: factor will be determinative and either of them.

1017
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:19,200
Speaker 1: Well, it's been interesting. It's sort of like I and

1018
01:01:19,320 --> 01:01:22,120
Speaker 1: this is where you sometimes have cross currents. There does

1019
01:01:22,160 --> 01:01:25,720
Speaker 1: seem to be a general move, you know, and we've

1020
01:01:25,720 --> 01:01:27,800
Speaker 1: seen this with Latin America. It's like a windshield wiper

1021
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 1: when suddenly, you know, five countries move left, then five

1022
01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:35,280
Speaker 1: countries move right, you know, and I feel like there's

1023
01:01:35,280 --> 01:01:36,600
Speaker 1: a right word poll right now.

1024
01:01:36,720 --> 01:01:38,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1025
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:41,440
Speaker 3: But in Colombia, I mean, Petro got into that big

1026
01:01:41,480 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 3: spat with Trump, and apparently the Trump administration was like

1027
01:01:45,200 --> 01:01:47,920
Speaker 3: literally had targets and they were ready to engage in

1028
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:53,320
Speaker 3: unilateral strikes. And then Petro calls Trump and he pretends

1029
01:01:53,360 --> 01:01:56,320
Speaker 3: that like he'd been begging for that call for weeks. Yeah,

1030
01:01:56,360 --> 01:01:58,640
Speaker 3: and he made it sound as if, oh, I didn't

1031
01:01:58,640 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 3: even know Trump.

1032
01:01:59,240 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 2: Was gonna call me, and so thank god I wasn't

1033
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 2: laid for it.

1034
01:02:02,360 --> 01:02:03,880
Speaker 3: But I mean, you know, we're going to get together

1035
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:06,360
Speaker 3: and it's going to be wonderful, and you know, suddenly

1036
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:09,440
Speaker 3: their buddies because he's been personally sanctioned by by the

1037
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 3: United States, right, and it's a problem for him. He

1038
01:02:13,840 --> 01:02:17,320
Speaker 3: really wanted the the other side of get the other

1039
01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 3: side of that potential conflict. And I think the likelihood

1040
01:02:20,880 --> 01:02:24,040
Speaker 3: that his preferred candidate on the left can get through

1041
01:02:24,080 --> 01:02:24,880
Speaker 3: a second.

1042
01:02:24,600 --> 01:02:27,400
Speaker 2: Round is it's there, but it's it's very low.

1043
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:30,520
Speaker 1: You would expect the strong, you know, right, you don't

1044
01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:34,320
Speaker 1: fear that anti Americanism could suddenly prop that left disc government.

1045
01:02:34,360 --> 01:02:36,480
Speaker 3: Nope, Nope's not playing out in any of the polls

1046
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 3: right now, not at all.

1047
01:02:38,360 --> 01:02:39,880
Speaker 2: And Brazil, I just think is going to be a

1048
01:02:39,880 --> 01:02:40,800
Speaker 2: close election.

1049
01:02:40,920 --> 01:02:43,040
Speaker 1: And it's going to be Bolsonaro's kid, right.

1050
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:45,880
Speaker 2: It looks that way. That's just going to be a

1051
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:47,480
Speaker 2: fascinator putting forward fight.

1052
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:50,760
Speaker 3: And they're now thinking about who his running mate for

1053
01:02:50,840 --> 01:02:54,040
Speaker 3: vice president would be. But I would say they still

1054
01:02:54,040 --> 01:02:55,800
Speaker 3: want to see how he's going to do over the

1055
01:02:55,840 --> 01:02:59,040
Speaker 3: next couple of months before they all line up behind him.

1056
01:02:59,080 --> 01:03:02,280
Speaker 3: So he's like, it's likely to be Flavio Bolsnaro. Keep

1057
01:03:02,320 --> 01:03:06,280
Speaker 3: in mind that his father, the former president has had

1058
01:03:06,400 --> 01:03:10,480
Speaker 3: a lot of health issues recently, and you know, if

1059
01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:14,760
Speaker 3: he ends up really not being able to be a strong,

1060
01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:19,320
Speaker 3: live political force, things could change very quickly.

1061
01:03:20,640 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 1: How's Lula's health. He's been there a long.

1062
01:03:22,520 --> 01:03:26,160
Speaker 2: Time, seems to be okay. I mean he's what in

1063
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:29,960
Speaker 2: his eighties now. He doesn't even keep a smartphone.

1064
01:03:30,120 --> 01:03:32,640
Speaker 3: I mean he's like, you know, the way he does

1065
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:36,280
Speaker 3: his work and the way he's briefed is so twentieth century.

1066
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:39,000
Speaker 3: It's kind of shocking that he's running the largest economy

1067
01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:42,959
Speaker 3: in South America, but he's decided he wants to run again.

1068
01:03:43,120 --> 01:03:46,600
Speaker 3: I think it's criminal negligence for him to be running

1069
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:49,280
Speaker 3: for another full term basically.

1070
01:03:48,800 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 2: Because of his age.

1071
01:03:49,720 --> 01:03:50,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and all of that.

1072
01:03:50,840 --> 01:03:53,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, but very much a Biden situation.

1073
01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:57,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, Biden situation. I mean all across subs are in Africa.

1074
01:03:57,400 --> 01:03:59,440
Speaker 3: I mean a lot of places where people should know this.

1075
01:03:59,440 --> 01:04:01,440
Speaker 2: Is a hugeh you all over Africa, that's for sure.

1076
01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:03,440
Speaker 2: Let's move to Claudia.

1077
01:04:03,080 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 1: Shinbaum because one of the comments that didn't get a

1078
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:09,440
Speaker 1: lot of traction over the last couple of weeks was

1079
01:04:09,480 --> 01:04:12,520
Speaker 1: when Trump just managed, matter of factly said well, she

1080
01:04:12,560 --> 01:04:15,440
Speaker 1: doesn't control her own country. I'm gonna have to take

1081
01:04:15,480 --> 01:04:18,440
Speaker 1: care of the cartels, and you're and Shinebaum to her.

1082
01:04:18,720 --> 01:04:22,240
Speaker 1: She never overreacts to Trump publicly. She always she is

1083
01:04:22,360 --> 01:04:24,880
Speaker 1: you know, she's in that sense, she's figured out how

1084
01:04:24,920 --> 01:04:28,240
Speaker 1: to manage the personal relationship with them, probably better than

1085
01:04:28,240 --> 01:04:31,200
Speaker 1: any world leader. But I'm curious if you disagree.

1086
01:04:31,480 --> 01:04:33,919
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, you'd argue that h J and Ping

1087
01:04:34,000 --> 01:04:37,240
Speaker 3: has done the best job managing the Trump relationship, has

1088
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 3: given back and turns out that's effective, right, But but Claudia,

1089
01:04:43,000 --> 01:04:46,320
Speaker 3: pound for pound, cloudy done the best job. Yeah, I

1090
01:04:46,360 --> 01:04:49,120
Speaker 3: think that's probably right. I mean, her throw weight is

1091
01:04:49,160 --> 01:04:53,640
Speaker 3: a little smaller in terms of Mexico's a asymmetrical disadvantages.

1092
01:04:54,400 --> 01:04:56,120
Speaker 2: But I will say that, like three.

1093
01:04:55,920 --> 01:05:00,040
Speaker 5: Months ago, you know, the the in the scuttle but

1094
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:02,800
Speaker 5: inside the White House was, yeah, we thought we might

1095
01:05:02,840 --> 01:05:06,320
Speaker 5: have to engage in strikes, but they're cooperating so effectively

1096
01:05:06,920 --> 01:05:08,280
Speaker 5: that we probably don't.

1097
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:12,200
Speaker 2: Need to now. And that was even Stephen Miller's perspective, Right.

1098
01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:15,440
Speaker 1: It's my assign but I understand that in country. I've

1099
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:17,040
Speaker 1: got a few people I've talked to that say that

1100
01:05:17,840 --> 01:05:21,560
Speaker 1: she seems pretty intent and that she's more serious about

1101
01:05:21,600 --> 01:05:22,920
Speaker 1: it than Amblo was.

1102
01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:26,800
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, she is, and she is both in terms

1103
01:05:26,880 --> 01:05:30,840
Speaker 3: of the importance of her security, bona fidees for her

1104
01:05:30,920 --> 01:05:34,080
Speaker 3: own popular support in terms of what she did when

1105
01:05:34,080 --> 01:05:36,320
Speaker 3: she was mayor of Mexico City and.

1106
01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:39,120
Speaker 2: The corruption around the Attorney General.

1107
01:05:38,920 --> 01:05:41,480
Speaker 3: The Minister of Justice, excuse me and others, which she's

1108
01:05:41,680 --> 01:05:46,760
Speaker 3: who she finally forced out the chief prosecutor. And also

1109
01:05:46,840 --> 01:05:49,920
Speaker 3: because she understands that she's very vulnerable to the Americans

1110
01:05:49,960 --> 01:05:53,960
Speaker 3: if she doesn't shut down the meth labs, if she doesn't,

1111
01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:57,360
Speaker 3: you know, sort of capture a whole bunch of fentanyl, and.

1112
01:05:57,320 --> 01:06:01,240
Speaker 2: That they have done more, but but is more enough.

1113
01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:05,640
Speaker 3: They are very worried about it, and it certainly seems

1114
01:06:05,720 --> 01:06:10,080
Speaker 3: to me that Trump, that Marco Rubio in particular over

1115
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:17,040
Speaker 3: the past week since the Venezuela operation have soured on Mexico,

1116
01:06:17,160 --> 01:06:20,520
Speaker 3: is getting this done. Maybe this is over confidence because

1117
01:06:20,560 --> 01:06:24,720
Speaker 3: of Venezuela and the focus on the Donroe doctrine. Maybe

1118
01:06:24,760 --> 01:06:28,320
Speaker 3: it's because there isn't as much cooperation as they really want.

1119
01:06:28,640 --> 01:06:31,480
Speaker 3: Maybe it's because they're they're worried about the economy and

1120
01:06:31,520 --> 01:06:33,000
Speaker 3: the rest in the US. They want to show some

1121
01:06:33,040 --> 01:06:37,440
Speaker 3: more wins but definitely that noise has increased.

1122
01:06:46,400 --> 01:06:49,360
Speaker 1: Doesn't she have a I mean, tourism is so important

1123
01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:52,440
Speaker 1: to the Mexican economy, and the perception in this country

1124
01:06:52,520 --> 01:06:55,480
Speaker 1: is that Mexico is not as not safe. Doesn't she

1125
01:06:55,640 --> 01:06:58,560
Speaker 1: wants Americans to believe things are safe?

1126
01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:00,640
Speaker 2: There Isn't that the perception?

1127
01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:03,800
Speaker 3: I mean, when you think about it depends on toy sure,

1128
01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:06,080
Speaker 3: But I mean, do we really think that Cancun is

1129
01:07:06,120 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 3: a problem?

1130
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:09,080
Speaker 1: I mean no, And I've always been told that the

1131
01:07:09,120 --> 01:07:11,520
Speaker 1: reason why Cabo and Cancun aren't a problem is because

1132
01:07:11,560 --> 01:07:15,000
Speaker 1: the cartels own the hotels in those areas and that's

1133
01:07:15,040 --> 01:07:17,480
Speaker 1: the money. That's how they launder the money, and they

1134
01:07:17,520 --> 01:07:19,800
Speaker 1: know they don't want to kill the golden goose, so

1135
01:07:20,600 --> 01:07:23,800
Speaker 1: I have that's how That's how I've had folks reassure

1136
01:07:23,840 --> 01:07:26,200
Speaker 1: me about Cabo. Put it that way, Okay, But.

1137
01:07:26,240 --> 01:07:29,360
Speaker 3: Tuloom, I mean, you know my Coba, even Mexico City,

1138
01:07:29,440 --> 01:07:32,440
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, Guadalajara, I mean, Wahaka. I mean

1139
01:07:32,480 --> 01:07:36,400
Speaker 3: the friends of mine, from all walks of life, from

1140
01:07:36,520 --> 01:07:40,360
Speaker 3: working class to super rich, have not been, you know,

1141
01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:45,920
Speaker 3: sort of cutting their Mexico trips because they're concerned about

1142
01:07:46,240 --> 01:07:49,560
Speaker 3: getting you know, sort of hauled off by the drug

1143
01:07:49,600 --> 01:07:52,720
Speaker 3: lords or caught in a firefight. I think it's much

1144
01:07:52,840 --> 01:07:55,520
Speaker 3: more of a concern for the companies that are operating

1145
01:07:55,600 --> 01:08:00,200
Speaker 3: in those areas, for whom you know, a shakedown is real. Well,

1146
01:08:00,280 --> 01:08:03,760
Speaker 3: it's also a huge concern for the mayors and in

1147
01:08:03,840 --> 01:08:06,720
Speaker 3: the localities that are running who are getting gunned down.

1148
01:08:07,120 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 2: But it's a huge number of political assassinations across.

1149
01:08:10,000 --> 01:08:12,840
Speaker 1: Especially northern in the northern part of the country. Definitely, yeah,

1150
01:08:13,000 --> 01:08:16,200
Speaker 1: still yeah, I still wouldn't recommend a road trip in

1151
01:08:16,520 --> 01:08:17,320
Speaker 1: Mexico now.

1152
01:08:17,400 --> 01:08:20,000
Speaker 3: But I look, I think the big issue is that

1153
01:08:20,160 --> 01:08:24,479
Speaker 3: if the United States decides to go in unilaterally with

1154
01:08:24,680 --> 01:08:29,559
Speaker 3: drones or with the federal allys and engages in strikes

1155
01:08:29,600 --> 01:08:34,120
Speaker 3: that the Mexican government is not cooperating with overtly, I

1156
01:08:34,120 --> 01:08:36,760
Speaker 3: think that is a redline for this government and for

1157
01:08:36,800 --> 01:08:38,360
Speaker 3: the US Mexico relationship.

1158
01:08:39,120 --> 01:08:42,040
Speaker 2: That would be a disaster. Okay, what does that look like.

1159
01:08:42,920 --> 01:08:43,479
Speaker 2: I think that.

1160
01:08:43,840 --> 01:08:48,720
Speaker 3: Trade relations would would take a severe hit. I think

1161
01:08:48,760 --> 01:08:51,400
Speaker 3: that she would. I think she'd be in very serious

1162
01:08:51,439 --> 01:08:54,800
Speaker 3: trouble unless she immediately hit the Americans back and said

1163
01:08:54,800 --> 01:08:57,679
Speaker 3: this won't be tolerated with real consequences. It would cause

1164
01:08:57,680 --> 01:09:01,240
Speaker 3: a break. You said that she's handled manage Trump better

1165
01:09:01,320 --> 01:09:04,120
Speaker 3: than anybody else pound for pound, We would stop saying

1166
01:09:04,120 --> 01:09:04,800
Speaker 3: that immediately.

1167
01:09:06,520 --> 01:09:07,040
Speaker 2: Cuba.

1168
01:09:08,640 --> 01:09:12,000
Speaker 1: How can this regime survive without the help of Venezuela?

1169
01:09:12,080 --> 01:09:17,160
Speaker 1: How important was Maduro? Is Maduro? Is that regime to Cuba?

1170
01:09:19,320 --> 01:09:23,000
Speaker 2: So it appears that the United States, and I've only

1171
01:09:23,000 --> 01:09:26,040
Speaker 2: heard this in the last few hours, so I'd like

1172
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:29,280
Speaker 2: to dig into it, is not going to pressure the

1173
01:09:29,400 --> 01:09:34,880
Speaker 2: Mexicans to stop providing oil to Cuba.

1174
01:09:35,439 --> 01:09:39,479
Speaker 3: Marco Rubio recognizes that he wants the regime gone, but

1175
01:09:39,520 --> 01:09:42,720
Speaker 3: he also knows that they are not exporting the kind

1176
01:09:42,760 --> 01:09:46,840
Speaker 3: of instability across the region that Venezuela has.

1177
01:09:47,240 --> 01:09:48,200
Speaker 2: So it doesn't.

1178
01:09:47,920 --> 01:09:52,400
Speaker 3: Appear that there is urgency. And there also isn't a

1179
01:09:52,439 --> 01:09:56,800
Speaker 3: plan that's been put together. Yes, and the plan for Venezuela,

1180
01:09:56,880 --> 01:10:00,280
Speaker 3: which was, you know, militarily a very significant plan from

1181
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:03,280
Speaker 3: an intelligence perspective too, that took about six months. So

1182
01:10:03,640 --> 01:10:09,439
Speaker 3: it doesn't feel unless the Cuban economy collapses, driving massive

1183
01:10:09,880 --> 01:10:13,000
Speaker 3: you know, sort of unrest on the ground, this doesn't

1184
01:10:13,000 --> 01:10:15,080
Speaker 3: feel like something that we're going to be seeing headlines

1185
01:10:15,120 --> 01:10:15,880
Speaker 3: on next week.

1186
01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:18,759
Speaker 1: I know, over the last twenty years, the Spanish government

1187
01:10:18,800 --> 01:10:22,360
Speaker 1: in particular had been very helpful to Cuba. Obviously the Venezuelans.

1188
01:10:22,960 --> 01:10:27,040
Speaker 1: I mean, it does seem as if that who invests

1189
01:10:27,080 --> 01:10:30,120
Speaker 1: in Cuba these days, who has been helping them the most.

1190
01:10:30,680 --> 01:10:35,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean Venezuela has been significant and Mexico

1191
01:10:36,000 --> 01:10:38,640
Speaker 3: has been significant. Those are the two largest countries in

1192
01:10:38,680 --> 01:10:41,559
Speaker 3: the region that have been propping them up. And of course,

1193
01:10:41,760 --> 01:10:46,479
Speaker 3: with Venezuela essentially having been blockaded and now with the

1194
01:10:46,520 --> 01:10:51,519
Speaker 3: oil being taken over by the United States, one assumes

1195
01:10:51,560 --> 01:10:54,960
Speaker 3: that that has been cut off, and it would be

1196
01:10:55,040 --> 01:10:57,600
Speaker 3: cut off from Mexico if the Americans demanded it. So

1197
01:10:57,680 --> 01:11:00,479
Speaker 3: I think it's a question of you know, thewen the

1198
01:11:00,560 --> 01:11:04,040
Speaker 3: when as opposed to the weather. I can't see Trump

1199
01:11:04,120 --> 01:11:06,880
Speaker 3: in office for four years with Rubio as Secretary of

1200
01:11:06,920 --> 01:11:10,920
Speaker 3: State having taken out Maduro, allowing the Cuban regime to

1201
01:11:10,960 --> 01:11:11,679
Speaker 3: persist that.

1202
01:11:11,520 --> 01:11:12,800
Speaker 2: That does not seem likely to me.

1203
01:11:13,200 --> 01:11:14,960
Speaker 1: And I had a friend of mine just tell me

1204
01:11:15,000 --> 01:11:20,240
Speaker 1: that the that the constituency that he is becoming namored

1205
01:11:20,280 --> 01:11:23,639
Speaker 1: with the most are the living bay of pigs, guys

1206
01:11:24,400 --> 01:11:27,439
Speaker 1: that have become a staple at mar A Lago. Now

1207
01:11:27,479 --> 01:11:29,599
Speaker 1: part of that I've always said I think part of

1208
01:11:29,960 --> 01:11:33,559
Speaker 1: you know, Trump is Trump has been inaugurated as a

1209
01:11:33,600 --> 01:11:35,719
Speaker 1: real South Floridian at mar A Lago over the last

1210
01:11:36,360 --> 01:11:38,879
Speaker 1: seven years. And I don't think people understand the extent

1211
01:11:39,720 --> 01:11:42,800
Speaker 1: of Marco Rubio's education of Donald Trump in the world

1212
01:11:42,880 --> 01:11:46,800
Speaker 1: of the exile politics, and that now he is, you know,

1213
01:11:46,960 --> 01:11:49,200
Speaker 1: he's on a first Dame basis with all those surviving

1214
01:11:49,200 --> 01:11:52,000
Speaker 1: Bay of Pigs guys. And I'm with you one hundred

1215
01:11:52,040 --> 01:11:56,160
Speaker 1: thousand percent. He he sees that as a legacy opportunity

1216
01:11:56,560 --> 01:11:59,800
Speaker 1: in Cuba looks weak enough to make it not that hard,

1217
01:12:00,040 --> 01:12:02,240
Speaker 1: although these things always are harder than they look.

1218
01:12:02,640 --> 01:12:05,080
Speaker 3: I mean, this does not mean to me that Rubio

1219
01:12:05,320 --> 01:12:07,719
Speaker 3: is the slam dunk for twenty twenty eight or anything.

1220
01:12:08,120 --> 01:12:11,479
Speaker 3: But I just I can't see once you've embraced the

1221
01:12:11,600 --> 01:12:16,640
Speaker 3: Donro doctrine as your priority region, and it's not just

1222
01:12:16,800 --> 01:12:21,200
Speaker 3: Trump the National Security Strategy Document in December, you know,

1223
01:12:21,320 --> 01:12:25,400
Speaker 3: sort of anticipated all of this before the Venezuela operations.

1224
01:12:26,120 --> 01:12:28,760
Speaker 2: I don't see how you leave Cuba alone.

1225
01:12:29,200 --> 01:12:31,160
Speaker 1: So let me throw a question that I got the

1226
01:12:31,200 --> 01:12:33,280
Speaker 1: other day and I didn't have a great answer for it,

1227
01:12:33,920 --> 01:12:37,240
Speaker 1: which is Haiti, you know, for all of the tumult

1228
01:12:37,400 --> 01:12:40,200
Speaker 1: in our hemisphere. That's one place that Trump doesn't want

1229
01:12:40,200 --> 01:12:40,880
Speaker 1: anything to do with.

1230
01:12:42,439 --> 01:12:42,599
Speaker 2: Now.

1231
01:12:42,640 --> 01:12:45,240
Speaker 1: The person asked the question, if there were more resources

1232
01:12:45,240 --> 01:12:48,200
Speaker 1: that were important to us on the island of Hispaniola,

1233
01:12:48,439 --> 01:12:50,120
Speaker 1: would we be more engaged.

1234
01:12:49,720 --> 01:12:52,280
Speaker 2: With what's happening on the Haitian side of the mountain?

1235
01:12:55,240 --> 01:12:59,519
Speaker 1: You know, look in fairness to Trump, you know, a

1236
01:12:59,560 --> 01:13:01,920
Speaker 1: lot of reds haven't been able to figure out the

1237
01:13:01,920 --> 01:13:04,559
Speaker 1: Haitian problem.

1238
01:13:04,640 --> 01:13:08,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're not. I mean, it's it's massive gang violence,

1239
01:13:09,320 --> 01:13:11,839
Speaker 2: it's massive human predation.

1240
01:13:11,920 --> 01:13:14,160
Speaker 1: Are we still outsourcing this to the Kenyans and hoping

1241
01:13:14,200 --> 01:13:15,120
Speaker 1: you can provide.

1242
01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:18,280
Speaker 3: I mean, they're they're the peacekeepers on the ground. There's

1243
01:13:18,280 --> 01:13:22,640
Speaker 3: been some American money, some Canadian money and some policing,

1244
01:13:23,360 --> 01:13:28,040
Speaker 3: but support and training. But the United States, this being

1245
01:13:28,280 --> 01:13:33,599
Speaker 3: right in America's backyard and Biden administration has done nothing

1246
01:13:33,640 --> 01:13:33,960
Speaker 3: on it.

1247
01:13:34,200 --> 01:13:36,960
Speaker 2: Trump administration has done nothing on it.

1248
01:13:37,360 --> 01:13:40,360
Speaker 3: I mean, of course that the top concern is making

1249
01:13:40,400 --> 01:13:42,400
Speaker 3: sure that Haitians can't make it to the US and

1250
01:13:42,479 --> 01:13:45,360
Speaker 3: sending them back when they do. But aside from that,

1251
01:13:45,439 --> 01:13:48,439
Speaker 3: there's a big not our problem. And you would you

1252
01:13:48,560 --> 01:13:51,960
Speaker 3: one would think this would be more important in the

1253
01:13:52,000 --> 01:13:53,639
Speaker 3: context of the Donroe doctrine.

1254
01:13:53,640 --> 01:13:55,200
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, if you believe it that

1255
01:13:55,560 --> 01:13:58,840
Speaker 1: right now, as as a South Floridian, I can tell

1256
01:13:58,880 --> 01:14:01,240
Speaker 1: you the Haitians don't have the political power that the

1257
01:14:01,320 --> 01:14:02,719
Speaker 1: Cubans do, not even close.

1258
01:14:03,240 --> 01:14:05,960
Speaker 2: And you know they don't have the business community. They're

1259
01:14:06,000 --> 01:14:07,920
Speaker 2: not in they're not the mara Alago members.

1260
01:14:07,960 --> 01:14:10,080
Speaker 1: And if they did, if they could get into mar

1261
01:14:10,120 --> 01:14:15,519
Speaker 1: A Lago, perhaps people there are supposed to be elections

1262
01:14:15,560 --> 01:14:16,000
Speaker 1: in Haiti.

1263
01:14:16,040 --> 01:14:19,040
Speaker 2: The likelihood that happens this year seems close to zero.

1264
01:14:19,520 --> 01:14:24,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Greenland, I'm staying geographic here. Stay in

1265
01:14:24,720 --> 01:14:27,040
Speaker 1: geographic stay in the hemisphere or the edge of the

1266
01:14:27,080 --> 01:14:29,120
Speaker 1: way is Greenland Western hemisphere or not?

1267
01:14:29,280 --> 01:14:32,760
Speaker 2: No, no, but it is now. It is now. That

1268
01:14:32,920 --> 01:14:35,840
Speaker 2: is the point.

1269
01:14:35,960 --> 01:14:40,040
Speaker 1: What what's the you've got to people will pay you.

1270
01:14:40,520 --> 01:14:42,719
Speaker 1: And I say this not in some sort of meaning

1271
01:14:42,800 --> 01:14:45,439
Speaker 1: like you're a you're a consulting company and you know

1272
01:14:45,600 --> 01:14:47,960
Speaker 1: you're you're there to help people, Like what's the most

1273
01:14:48,000 --> 01:14:51,600
Speaker 1: likely scenario here? So what's the most likely scenario of

1274
01:14:51,680 --> 01:15:01,120
Speaker 1: Greenland's relationship to the United States? January twentieth, twenty twenty nine,

1275
01:15:01,479 --> 01:15:04,080
Speaker 1: So that the.

1276
01:15:03,360 --> 01:15:09,720
Speaker 3: Likelihood of an actual US military invasion to take Greenland

1277
01:15:10,360 --> 01:15:15,360
Speaker 3: strikes me as staggeringly low. That would that would end NATO.

1278
01:15:16,200 --> 01:15:16,840
Speaker 2: It would be.

1279
01:15:16,800 --> 01:15:21,200
Speaker 3: Incredibly NATO, right, and it was incredibly unpopular in the

1280
01:15:21,320 --> 01:15:25,000
Speaker 3: United States. It would also be incredibly unpopular in Greenland, frankly,

1281
01:15:25,080 --> 01:15:27,160
Speaker 3: and you know, why would you want to deal with that?

1282
01:15:27,360 --> 01:15:27,559
Speaker 2: Right?

1283
01:15:27,880 --> 01:15:30,559
Speaker 3: But but you know, that's like saying, what's the likelihood

1284
01:15:30,560 --> 01:15:33,720
Speaker 3: of the Russians sending tanks into the Baltics. That's not

1285
01:15:33,840 --> 01:15:36,280
Speaker 3: the way they get what they want, right, They use

1286
01:15:36,400 --> 01:15:39,760
Speaker 3: all sorts of asymmetric warfare, and the Americans would have

1287
01:15:39,800 --> 01:15:42,720
Speaker 3: a lot more carrots to use, because look, what they

1288
01:15:42,800 --> 01:15:47,519
Speaker 3: want is to come up with a plan that Trump

1289
01:15:47,520 --> 01:15:53,200
Speaker 3: will approve that has you know, an information campaign and

1290
01:15:53,320 --> 01:15:58,040
Speaker 3: all sorts of money being thrown at them and coercion

1291
01:15:59,120 --> 01:16:02,000
Speaker 3: that would get the Greenlanders to want to have a

1292
01:16:02,040 --> 01:16:08,679
Speaker 3: referendum to leave Denmark and join the United States. Now,

1293
01:16:08,760 --> 01:16:12,640
Speaker 3: what is the likelihood that such a thing could be successful?

1294
01:16:13,439 --> 01:16:15,160
Speaker 2: We have no idea.

1295
01:16:15,200 --> 01:16:18,320
Speaker 3: If it was you know, held today, it would you know,

1296
01:16:18,360 --> 01:16:20,680
Speaker 3: get defeated very very soundly.

1297
01:16:21,160 --> 01:16:24,840
Speaker 1: But we have only fifty seven thousand constituents to buy off.

1298
01:16:24,840 --> 01:16:27,519
Speaker 1: I mean that many, right, you might buy him off

1299
01:16:27,560 --> 01:16:29,439
Speaker 1: and it sounds like Trump thinks there's a chance to

1300
01:16:29,439 --> 01:16:30,080
Speaker 1: buy him off.

1301
01:16:30,360 --> 01:16:31,559
Speaker 2: Sure, sure he does.

1302
01:16:31,600 --> 01:16:34,479
Speaker 3: And he also loves the idea of painting that island,

1303
01:16:34,960 --> 01:16:38,000
Speaker 3: you know, Trump Landia. I mean, he's his entire life

1304
01:16:38,120 --> 01:16:42,200
Speaker 3: is about putting his name on stuff, and whether it

1305
01:16:42,400 --> 01:16:45,040
Speaker 3: was buildings in the on the Upper West Side that

1306
01:16:45,080 --> 01:16:50,360
Speaker 3: he doesn't own, or whether it's the Kennedy Center or

1307
01:16:50,439 --> 01:16:54,479
Speaker 3: whether it's Greenland. Now, now, you know, if you talk

1308
01:16:54,600 --> 01:16:58,000
Speaker 3: to the people in the national security space in the

1309
01:16:58,000 --> 01:17:02,840
Speaker 3: Trump administration, most of them will say, you can get

1310
01:17:02,880 --> 01:17:05,400
Speaker 3: a lot of what you need and there are real

1311
01:17:05,439 --> 01:17:10,400
Speaker 3: security concerns by negotiating with Denmark and Greenland, but not everything.

1312
01:17:11,000 --> 01:17:12,920
Speaker 3: And so there is there is a little bit of

1313
01:17:12,960 --> 01:17:15,679
Speaker 3: a real argument here, and of course it's being developed

1314
01:17:15,720 --> 01:17:17,960
Speaker 3: because Trump is telling them to So for example, sure

1315
01:17:18,080 --> 01:17:18,640
Speaker 3: you know what is that.

1316
01:17:18,840 --> 01:17:21,080
Speaker 1: I was just going to say, what's the real because

1317
01:17:21,080 --> 01:17:23,000
Speaker 1: this is not He's not the first president that is

1318
01:17:23,040 --> 01:17:25,200
Speaker 1: one of this. There's I think we all see the

1319
01:17:25,240 --> 01:17:32,160
Speaker 1: strategic need potentially and obviously with thanks to climate change,

1320
01:17:32,160 --> 01:17:34,520
Speaker 1: the Arctics is going to be a battleground for resources

1321
01:17:34,840 --> 01:17:37,600
Speaker 1: and all sorts of things. So I you know, the

1322
01:17:37,680 --> 01:17:40,120
Speaker 1: strategic need is there, But but what is it that

1323
01:17:40,160 --> 01:17:41,360
Speaker 1: we couldn't get from a treaty?

1324
01:17:41,560 --> 01:17:43,040
Speaker 2: So, I mean a few things.

1325
01:17:43,560 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 3: One the argument would be that, in particular, if it

1326
01:17:47,479 --> 01:17:52,800
Speaker 3: comes to stationing offensive weapons, as the Russians and even

1327
01:17:52,840 --> 01:17:56,200
Speaker 3: the Chinese become more assertive, aggressive and present in the area,

1328
01:17:56,680 --> 01:18:00,559
Speaker 3: that's something that the Greenlanders under Danish rule.

1329
01:18:00,439 --> 01:18:05,519
Speaker 2: And with their own autonomy, would would not want that.

1330
01:18:05,800 --> 01:18:12,280
Speaker 3: That'd also be slower processes bureaucratically of getting agreements to

1331
01:18:12,439 --> 01:18:15,520
Speaker 3: allow you even to have defensive and intelligence.

1332
01:18:16,120 --> 01:18:19,720
Speaker 2: You don't have posts there now, Yeah, that is one

1333
01:18:19,840 --> 01:18:22,040
Speaker 2: outpost there with like one hundred and fifty people there.

1334
01:18:22,080 --> 01:18:24,519
Speaker 3: In the Cold War, of course there's more like fifteen thousands,

1335
01:18:24,520 --> 01:18:26,719
Speaker 3: So I mean, it would be very easy to ramp

1336
01:18:26,760 --> 01:18:31,720
Speaker 3: it up. But there are real, albeit small and I

1337
01:18:31,760 --> 01:18:35,160
Speaker 3: think manageable, but still issues. And there's another issue which

1338
01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:40,360
Speaker 3: is kind of more existential, and it's a cute argument

1339
01:18:40,400 --> 01:18:42,960
Speaker 3: to use, but I get it, which is that, well,

1340
01:18:43,360 --> 01:18:47,160
Speaker 3: you know, how much would the Russians or Chinese believe

1341
01:18:47,240 --> 01:18:51,320
Speaker 3: the Americans would defend the territory of an ally as

1342
01:18:51,320 --> 01:18:56,240
Speaker 3: opposed to territory that belongs to themselves, And especially given

1343
01:18:56,240 --> 01:19:00,479
Speaker 3: that Trump is undermining the belief in US LED collectives curity, Like,

1344
01:19:00,479 --> 01:19:03,760
Speaker 3: you've got the Baltics that aren't convinced that America would

1345
01:19:03,800 --> 01:19:06,680
Speaker 3: necessarily go to bad for them if need be. So

1346
01:19:06,920 --> 01:19:10,559
Speaker 3: if Greenland is still a part of Denmark, well yeah

1347
01:19:10,600 --> 01:19:14,040
Speaker 3: it's NATO, but would America really defend it. Where if

1348
01:19:14,080 --> 01:19:17,840
Speaker 3: it's America, you know they'll defend it as America. It's

1349
01:19:17,840 --> 01:19:20,680
Speaker 3: a weird argument because, of course, again Trump is undermining

1350
01:19:20,680 --> 01:19:26,080
Speaker 3: it himself. But I do kind of understand the existential

1351
01:19:26,439 --> 01:19:30,040
Speaker 3: logic having said all of those things, Chuck, I don't

1352
01:19:30,040 --> 01:19:34,920
Speaker 3: want to give the audience the wrong idea. Overwhelmingly, this

1353
01:19:35,120 --> 01:19:38,120
Speaker 3: is Trump deciding I have to have my name on

1354
01:19:38,160 --> 01:19:38,479
Speaker 3: this thing.

1355
01:19:38,520 --> 01:19:40,120
Speaker 2: This is a legacy issue for me.

1356
01:19:40,240 --> 01:19:44,280
Speaker 3: Is the most consequential American president in history. It's not

1357
01:19:44,320 --> 01:19:46,800
Speaker 3: like he cared about it on his first term, and

1358
01:19:46,840 --> 01:19:50,080
Speaker 3: those issues were all present during his first term.

1359
01:19:50,560 --> 01:19:56,240
Speaker 1: Right is there a price that the Danes would say, well,

1360
01:19:56,360 --> 01:19:57,360
Speaker 1: we can't say no to that.

1361
01:19:59,120 --> 01:20:04,960
Speaker 3: This is not only panicking the Danes and the Nordics,

1362
01:20:05,479 --> 01:20:09,000
Speaker 3: but it's making them incredibly angry, like with Canada and

1363
01:20:09,160 --> 01:20:10,360
Speaker 3: unlike with Latin America.

1364
01:20:10,479 --> 01:20:12,720
Speaker 2: So it's a boomerang. It's an anti Americanism, is.

1365
01:20:13,120 --> 01:20:18,639
Speaker 3: Causing permanent damage to the US relationship with Europe, permanent damage.

1366
01:20:18,720 --> 01:20:23,880
Speaker 3: The Americans throwing the Ukrainians under the bus on many instances,

1367
01:20:23,920 --> 01:20:28,200
Speaker 3: and the Europeans coming back and also paying for it themselves.

1368
01:20:29,200 --> 01:20:35,280
Speaker 3: The Americans promoting eurosceptic parties, including in Germany the AfD,

1369
01:20:35,520 --> 01:20:38,880
Speaker 3: which many Germans consider to be a neo Nazi party,

1370
01:20:40,040 --> 01:20:44,800
Speaker 3: the Greenland issue. There are so many instances where the

1371
01:20:44,840 --> 01:20:50,360
Speaker 3: Europeans today consider the Americans fundamentally unreliable. And I think

1372
01:20:50,400 --> 01:20:52,360
Speaker 3: this is going to cause permanent damage.

1373
01:20:52,080 --> 01:20:56,160
Speaker 1: To the relationship it already had. I mean, yeah, there's

1374
01:20:56,200 --> 01:20:59,000
Speaker 1: no coming. I mean and that, and I'm gonna save

1375
01:20:59,000 --> 01:21:01,559
Speaker 1: this to the end. It's sort of like it doesn't

1376
01:21:01,560 --> 01:21:04,320
Speaker 1: sound like a change in administrations just flips a switch.

1377
01:21:04,360 --> 01:21:07,120
Speaker 2: This time. No, not this time, not this time.

1378
01:21:07,680 --> 01:21:12,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's move to Iran. You know, I know

1379
01:21:13,000 --> 01:21:16,320
Speaker 1: that a regime falls. It's like the definition of bankruptcy.

1380
01:21:16,320 --> 01:21:19,120
Speaker 1: First it's slowly, then it's quickly, right like we knew

1381
01:21:19,120 --> 01:21:20,960
Speaker 1: Syria would fall. We knew a Sod would fall, we

1382
01:21:21,000 --> 01:21:23,240
Speaker 1: just don't know when. And all of a sudden, one day,

1383
01:21:23,240 --> 01:21:25,839
Speaker 1: Oh my god, a Sod's gone. Right, he's in Russia,

1384
01:21:25,880 --> 01:21:30,240
Speaker 1: it's over, and I have a feeling it's like this.

1385
01:21:30,439 --> 01:21:33,320
Speaker 1: I was in Abu Dabi about a month ago. It's

1386
01:21:33,360 --> 01:21:37,120
Speaker 1: a huge Iranian diaspora there, and the optimism that the

1387
01:21:37,160 --> 01:21:40,200
Speaker 1: regime is going to fall was through the roof then,

1388
01:21:40,439 --> 01:21:44,920
Speaker 1: and this was pre protests. Do you think this regime

1389
01:21:45,000 --> 01:21:45,880
Speaker 1: lasts the calendar year?

1390
01:21:46,400 --> 01:21:50,200
Speaker 3: I would love to say that it does it. I'd

1391
01:21:50,200 --> 01:21:52,760
Speaker 3: love to see the back of this regime so incredibly

1392
01:21:52,800 --> 01:21:56,920
Speaker 3: repressive of its own people and exporting so much instability

1393
01:21:57,760 --> 01:22:03,759
Speaker 3: with bad actors around the region Hamas has Belah, others.

1394
01:22:04,800 --> 01:22:10,000
Speaker 3: But it feels to me like they still have very

1395
01:22:10,160 --> 01:22:14,200
Speaker 3: significant capacity to repress, and I haven't yet seen cracks

1396
01:22:15,120 --> 01:22:19,439
Speaker 3: inside the regime itself. The Supreme Leader is incredibly old.

1397
01:22:19,479 --> 01:22:21,920
Speaker 2: He's mid eighties. I think he's like eighty six now.

1398
01:22:22,040 --> 01:22:26,479
Speaker 3: He's he's quite he's quite frail, he's ailing, he's had

1399
01:22:26,720 --> 01:22:30,040
Speaker 3: it seems like he's had cancer that he's dealing with.

1400
01:22:30,720 --> 01:22:32,360
Speaker 2: But he's hand.

1401
01:22:32,200 --> 01:22:36,120
Speaker 3: Selected all of the top security officials and they don't

1402
01:22:36,160 --> 01:22:41,120
Speaker 3: seem to be in any way backing away from him.

1403
01:22:41,280 --> 01:22:48,360
Speaker 3: We've seen no climb down despite American pressure for the IRGC,

1404
01:22:49,400 --> 01:22:52,680
Speaker 3: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the besiege. The paramilitary

1405
01:22:52,720 --> 01:22:56,200
Speaker 3: group under them that does the head knocking and the shooting.

1406
01:22:57,160 --> 01:23:02,160
Speaker 3: We've seen no willingness of them to say no to orders.

1407
01:23:01,920 --> 01:23:05,520
Speaker 2: Or back away. The repression has been very extensive.

1408
01:23:05,560 --> 01:23:09,840
Speaker 3: And that's that's included technical repression in terms of you know,

1409
01:23:09,920 --> 01:23:14,320
Speaker 3: shutting down electricity, shutting down the internet, and the rest

1410
01:23:14,360 --> 01:23:19,880
Speaker 3: and enforcement across the country despite very different regional you

1411
01:23:19,920 --> 01:23:25,639
Speaker 3: know makeups, ethnic makeup, and the rest in different parts

1412
01:23:25,640 --> 01:23:26,440
Speaker 3: of irun.

1413
01:23:27,000 --> 01:23:29,000
Speaker 2: So and the United States.

1414
01:23:29,240 --> 01:23:32,160
Speaker 3: As much as Trump has said you know you better,

1415
01:23:32,439 --> 01:23:36,200
Speaker 3: you better behavior, else we're going to hit you, so far,

1416
01:23:36,360 --> 01:23:39,640
Speaker 3: the plans for what the US might do seem to

1417
01:23:39,680 --> 01:23:43,840
Speaker 3: be pretty pinpoint and symbolical. I mean, I expect at

1418
01:23:43,840 --> 01:23:46,440
Speaker 3: some point actually some military strikes.

1419
01:23:46,040 --> 01:23:47,960
Speaker 2: For the US. What would that look like and what

1420
01:23:48,000 --> 01:23:48,799
Speaker 2: could be effective?

1421
01:23:49,240 --> 01:23:51,479
Speaker 3: Oh well, what it would look like and what could

1422
01:23:51,520 --> 01:23:53,800
Speaker 3: be effective or two different things, so one what it

1423
01:23:53,800 --> 01:23:55,760
Speaker 3: would look like. I mean, right now, it looks like

1424
01:23:55,800 --> 01:23:58,040
Speaker 3: it's going to be the US going after the police,

1425
01:23:58,080 --> 01:24:02,080
Speaker 3: the US going after the paramilitary forces directly, not taking

1426
01:24:02,120 --> 01:24:05,640
Speaker 3: out the supreme leader. I'd like to see them be

1427
01:24:05,760 --> 01:24:09,080
Speaker 3: a little more creative than that. You know, for example,

1428
01:24:09,920 --> 01:24:14,000
Speaker 3: you have all of these judges that are serving the

1429
01:24:14,080 --> 01:24:19,240
Speaker 3: regime and are handing down sentences without any evidence, no

1430
01:24:19,360 --> 01:24:23,000
Speaker 3: rule of law, innocent people that are being sentenced to

1431
01:24:23,080 --> 01:24:29,040
Speaker 3: horrible jails, time or death, and those judges have never

1432
01:24:29,080 --> 01:24:33,520
Speaker 3: been targeted, and frankly they should be. They are instruments

1433
01:24:33,560 --> 01:24:36,520
Speaker 3: of terror in the Iranian regime. You know, the Israelis

1434
01:24:36,520 --> 01:24:39,760
Speaker 3: have targeted nuclear scientists. No one's after gone after the

1435
01:24:39,800 --> 01:24:43,360
Speaker 3: people that are actually sending civilians to their death. That

1436
01:24:43,479 --> 01:24:46,280
Speaker 3: strikes me as you know, you go after them, you

1437
01:24:46,320 --> 01:24:50,720
Speaker 3: go after some of these softer points that allow a

1438
01:24:51,800 --> 01:24:59,240
Speaker 3: dictatorship of theocracy to unleash terror within the country.

1439
01:24:59,280 --> 01:25:01,760
Speaker 2: Maybe you start to unravel it a little bit.

1440
01:25:01,840 --> 01:25:04,040
Speaker 3: But again, if if you were asking me to make

1441
01:25:04,080 --> 01:25:06,000
Speaker 3: a bet, are they gone?

1442
01:25:06,120 --> 01:25:08,640
Speaker 2: Are they gone in five years? Yeah? They gone in

1443
01:25:08,720 --> 01:25:11,519
Speaker 2: three years? Probably? Are they gone in like six months,

1444
01:25:12,920 --> 01:25:14,320
Speaker 2: that's a harder call for me.

1445
01:25:14,479 --> 01:25:17,920
Speaker 3: Right now, it doesn't it doesn't feel imminent, especially because

1446
01:25:18,479 --> 01:25:20,879
Speaker 3: on the ground, I mean, there's a lot of support

1447
01:25:21,040 --> 01:25:26,880
Speaker 3: inside Iran for Razapalabi, who's the one that's saying I

1448
01:25:26,920 --> 01:25:29,840
Speaker 3: want you all out there demonstrating, But there's there's no

1449
01:25:29,920 --> 01:25:34,719
Speaker 3: real organization of an opposition movement inside or on itself.

1450
01:25:42,600 --> 01:25:46,120
Speaker 1: Somebody indicated to me that they thought the president was

1451
01:25:46,200 --> 01:25:48,400
Speaker 1: quietly they had Somebody said it sort of so that

1452
01:25:48,439 --> 01:25:53,320
Speaker 1: the president sort of is prepared to become the Gorbacheff

1453
01:25:53,600 --> 01:25:56,920
Speaker 1: of Iran, and I thought, I'll believe it when I

1454
01:25:56,960 --> 01:25:57,280
Speaker 1: say it.

1455
01:25:57,680 --> 01:25:59,360
Speaker 2: I mean he's weak.

1456
01:26:00,160 --> 01:26:04,520
Speaker 3: He is more of a centrist in the Iranian context

1457
01:26:04,600 --> 01:26:09,640
Speaker 3: than was expected when those presidential elections occurred. But I

1458
01:26:09,680 --> 01:26:13,480
Speaker 3: mean he is seen as a failed figure. The economy

1459
01:26:13,520 --> 01:26:16,200
Speaker 3: has utterly collapsed under his rule.

1460
01:26:16,280 --> 01:26:20,320
Speaker 2: He engaged in a whole pultable water in Tehran right now.

1461
01:26:21,760 --> 01:26:25,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, they've got a massive water crisis in the capitol,

1462
01:26:26,160 --> 01:26:31,600
Speaker 3: and he was supporting behind the scenes talks with the Americans,

1463
01:26:32,360 --> 01:26:35,960
Speaker 3: and that's happening again through Oman and their good offices.

1464
01:26:36,360 --> 01:26:39,680
Speaker 3: But the Supreme Leader has stopped anything from happening. So

1465
01:26:39,800 --> 01:26:42,519
Speaker 3: I don't know that the president possession would be useful

1466
01:26:43,600 --> 01:26:45,639
Speaker 3: in really driving a different outcome.

1467
01:26:46,000 --> 01:26:49,080
Speaker 1: Are we stretched a little thin right now with Venezuela,

1468
01:26:49,320 --> 01:26:52,280
Speaker 1: with what we're doing in Syria? With what to do

1469
01:26:52,600 --> 01:26:55,000
Speaker 1: more in Iran? Would are we prepared if we wanted

1470
01:26:55,000 --> 01:26:57,200
Speaker 1: to do something, could we do it immediately? Or do

1471
01:26:57,200 --> 01:27:00,680
Speaker 1: we actually have a little bit because of this Venezuela exercise.

1472
01:27:01,720 --> 01:27:04,599
Speaker 3: The B two's are all been you know, they're all

1473
01:27:04,680 --> 01:27:09,560
Speaker 3: repositioned Diego Garcia. There's massive amount of firepower and readiness

1474
01:27:09,880 --> 01:27:11,960
Speaker 3: to engage in those strikes. If that's what you do,

1475
01:27:12,000 --> 01:27:14,360
Speaker 3: you could also send them from like Montana if you

1476
01:27:14,439 --> 01:27:17,759
Speaker 3: really needed to, Right we did, Americans have that capacity. Again,

1477
01:27:18,000 --> 01:27:20,920
Speaker 3: if you're not talking about boots on the ground, an

1478
01:27:20,960 --> 01:27:23,880
Speaker 3: actual regime change with an ability to execute on it.

1479
01:27:23,920 --> 01:27:27,400
Speaker 3: The limitations of the US military has suddenly become much

1480
01:27:27,720 --> 01:27:28,240
Speaker 3: much less.

1481
01:27:28,240 --> 01:27:31,000
Speaker 1: So I don't want to like get ahead of ourselves.

1482
01:27:31,080 --> 01:27:32,759
Speaker 1: But what would this mean for a rock.

1483
01:27:35,320 --> 01:27:40,000
Speaker 3: It would mean that a significant constraint on their government

1484
01:27:41,240 --> 01:27:46,639
Speaker 3: and the lever that has prevented them from working more

1485
01:27:46,680 --> 01:27:50,519
Speaker 3: effectively with the big powers.

1486
01:27:50,000 --> 01:27:52,080
Speaker 2: In the region would be gone.

1487
01:27:52,560 --> 01:27:54,840
Speaker 3: And I think that that would be a useful thing

1488
01:27:54,880 --> 01:27:56,160
Speaker 3: for a Rocky economic I.

1489
01:27:56,160 --> 01:27:59,559
Speaker 1: Mean, you know, you paid a picture. It's like God,

1490
01:27:59,680 --> 01:28:02,120
Speaker 1: you know, if a run, if this regime went away,

1491
01:28:02,760 --> 01:28:05,880
Speaker 1: maybe Syria could thrive, Maybe Lebanon could thrive, Maybe Iraq

1492
01:28:05,920 --> 01:28:08,519
Speaker 1: could thrive. Right like feels like it's stated. I mean,

1493
01:28:08,520 --> 01:28:11,880
Speaker 1: are we're being too optimistic about what would happen after

1494
01:28:11,920 --> 01:28:13,519
Speaker 1: the fall of this regime.

1495
01:28:13,920 --> 01:28:19,160
Speaker 3: Well, we've seen that Saudi Arabia, you know, which we've

1496
01:28:19,200 --> 01:28:23,439
Speaker 3: thought of as a twenty years ago, even ten years ago,

1497
01:28:23,880 --> 01:28:30,400
Speaker 3: as an enormously conservative and pretty repressive monarchy, and today

1498
01:28:30,880 --> 01:28:36,400
Speaker 3: I mean truly revolutionary in the positive sense, for young people,

1499
01:28:36,520 --> 01:28:40,439
Speaker 3: for women participating in the economy, for tourism becoming a

1500
01:28:40,439 --> 01:28:43,559
Speaker 3: real part of GDP tourism in Saudi Arabia, Like no

1501
01:28:43,560 --> 01:28:46,040
Speaker 3: one was talking about that ten years ago, and now

1502
01:28:46,080 --> 01:28:50,680
Speaker 3: it's increasingly becoming a world class Destination's.

1503
01:28:49,640 --> 01:28:52,000
Speaker 1: Still probably go to Abu Dhabi or Dubai before yadd

1504
01:28:52,040 --> 01:28:53,120
Speaker 1: but still, you know, go for it.

1505
01:28:53,120 --> 01:28:57,520
Speaker 3: But Alula is now becoming a world class must do destination,

1506
01:28:57,600 --> 01:29:00,240
Speaker 3: which is in Saudi Arabia, And if you haven't heard

1507
01:29:00,240 --> 01:29:02,479
Speaker 3: of it yet, you will within another year or two.

1508
01:29:02,760 --> 01:29:07,920
Speaker 3: So definitely they're putting real effort into that. And yeah,

1509
01:29:07,960 --> 01:29:09,920
Speaker 3: it's going to be for tourists in the region first,

1510
01:29:09,920 --> 01:29:12,080
Speaker 3: but then it's going to be from all over the world.

1511
01:29:12,200 --> 01:29:16,719
Speaker 3: So you know, I think that don't underestimate what energy,

1512
01:29:16,800 --> 01:29:21,040
Speaker 3: wealth and some technocrats can accomplish given level of control,

1513
01:29:21,280 --> 01:29:23,320
Speaker 3: and of course what you have in Saudi Arabia and

1514
01:29:23,360 --> 01:29:26,800
Speaker 3: the Emirates in particular I mean cut its tiny, but

1515
01:29:27,120 --> 01:29:31,439
Speaker 3: you have, you know, very strong centralized control, right and

1516
01:29:31,680 --> 01:29:34,759
Speaker 3: all you need is the ability to support a reform process,

1517
01:29:35,080 --> 01:29:36,400
Speaker 3: which they didn't have before.

1518
01:29:36,800 --> 01:29:40,160
Speaker 2: The Emiordes went first, and now the Saudis are fast following.

1519
01:29:43,200 --> 01:29:49,280
Speaker 2: Maybe that yahoo. You know, it's interesting. I remember there's a.

1520
01:29:49,240 --> 01:29:52,840
Speaker 1: Poll right before the ceasefire which said as soon as

1521
01:29:52,840 --> 01:29:58,160
Speaker 1: there's a ceasefire, sixty percent of Israelis wanted them out.

1522
01:29:58,560 --> 01:30:01,519
Speaker 1: I don't see a path him to be out anytime soon,

1523
01:30:01,680 --> 01:30:02,840
Speaker 1: but what's your sense.

1524
01:30:03,439 --> 01:30:06,160
Speaker 2: I think that it's going to be a very close

1525
01:30:06,280 --> 01:30:06,840
Speaker 2: run election.

1526
01:30:07,520 --> 01:30:12,559
Speaker 3: Israel is a fragmented multi party system where coalition building

1527
01:30:13,760 --> 01:30:17,640
Speaker 3: is extremely hard and also very opaque until after you

1528
01:30:17,720 --> 01:30:18,519
Speaker 3: have the votes in.

1529
01:30:19,680 --> 01:30:21,040
Speaker 2: We could easily he's.

1530
01:30:20,840 --> 01:30:26,280
Speaker 3: An incredibly talented tactician in election math and management. He's

1531
01:30:26,320 --> 01:30:29,360
Speaker 3: also very charismatic and being able to convince people that

1532
01:30:29,439 --> 01:30:33,320
Speaker 3: he can give them the world and that others along that. So,

1533
01:30:33,760 --> 01:30:36,760
Speaker 3: I mean, it's really hard to count him out. But

1534
01:30:37,280 --> 01:30:39,920
Speaker 3: he could absolutely not be a part of the next

1535
01:30:39,960 --> 01:30:43,840
Speaker 3: government in Israel. I think that that is that is

1536
01:30:43,960 --> 01:30:45,320
Speaker 3: plausible as.

1537
01:30:45,280 --> 01:30:47,360
Speaker 2: We look at plausible this time than there has been

1538
01:30:47,400 --> 01:30:48,360
Speaker 2: in quite some time.

1539
01:30:48,320 --> 01:30:52,280
Speaker 3: Probably And and you know, The fact is that normalization

1540
01:30:52,400 --> 01:30:56,639
Speaker 3: with Saudi Arabia once BB is gone, is absolutely on

1541
01:30:56,680 --> 01:30:59,720
Speaker 3: the table. Then you can move ahead with Phase two,

1542
01:30:59,720 --> 01:31:03,639
Speaker 3: which be be opposes, but which you know you could

1543
01:31:03,760 --> 01:31:04,880
Speaker 3: actually move on.

1544
01:31:05,040 --> 01:31:05,280
Speaker 2: Now.

1545
01:31:05,479 --> 01:31:08,760
Speaker 3: The Israelis don't support a Palestinian state anymore, there is

1546
01:31:08,800 --> 01:31:11,120
Speaker 3: no there's no support for that in the population as

1547
01:31:11,160 --> 01:31:11,519
Speaker 3: a whole.

1548
01:31:12,680 --> 01:31:15,360
Speaker 2: But there is support for, i.

1549
01:31:15,280 --> 01:31:18,920
Speaker 3: Think among the majority of the population, for the peace

1550
01:31:19,000 --> 01:31:24,000
Speaker 3: plan that actually passed the Security Council, the American peace

1551
01:31:24,040 --> 01:31:26,640
Speaker 3: plan that passed the Security count This is probably the

1552
01:31:26,720 --> 01:31:31,280
Speaker 3: most improbable foreign policy win by the United States in

1553
01:31:31,800 --> 01:31:34,400
Speaker 3: the first year of Trump, because the US went from

1554
01:31:34,439 --> 01:31:40,439
Speaker 3: being completely isolated by pretty much everyone for supporting a

1555
01:31:40,920 --> 01:31:44,839
Speaker 3: war that was considered ethnic cleansing by the vast majority

1556
01:31:44,880 --> 01:31:48,839
Speaker 3: of the world's governments and populations, with massive humanitarian damage

1557
01:31:48,880 --> 01:31:52,800
Speaker 3: and tens of thousands of Palestinians killed kids, right, all

1558
01:31:52,920 --> 01:31:57,200
Speaker 3: huge humanitarian outrage. And then suddenly Trump got all the

1559
01:31:57,240 --> 01:32:01,000
Speaker 3: countries in the region together and during the United Nations

1560
01:32:01,479 --> 01:32:04,400
Speaker 3: and said We're going to make a ceasefire happen, and

1561
01:32:04,479 --> 01:32:07,679
Speaker 3: everyone passes it in the Security Council except the Russians

1562
01:32:07,720 --> 01:32:09,240
Speaker 3: and Chinese, who abstain.

1563
01:32:09,960 --> 01:32:11,760
Speaker 1: You know, it's fascinating about Trump with this.

1564
01:32:12,280 --> 01:32:12,840
Speaker 2: I've said this.

1565
01:32:13,000 --> 01:32:16,280
Speaker 1: You know, he's the last person you'd want to negotiate

1566
01:32:16,320 --> 01:32:17,960
Speaker 1: with Europe, but he might be the only person you

1567
01:32:18,000 --> 01:32:20,439
Speaker 1: want negotiating in the Middle East. In a weird way,

1568
01:32:20,920 --> 01:32:24,680
Speaker 1: his style, his transactional nature. Look, I don't think he

1569
01:32:24,760 --> 01:32:27,160
Speaker 1: cares about BB, and BB's going to find this out.

1570
01:32:28,080 --> 01:32:32,120
Speaker 1: And but in a weird way, he speaks the same

1571
01:32:32,240 --> 01:32:37,400
Speaker 1: language and and he's it works there. It doesn't work

1572
01:32:37,439 --> 01:32:38,759
Speaker 1: in a lot of other parts of the world.

1573
01:32:38,760 --> 01:32:42,600
Speaker 3: But he's so popular there. Weirdly went to the Kanesset

1574
01:32:42,680 --> 01:32:46,240
Speaker 3: and spoke there. I mean, the ovations that he was

1575
01:32:46,280 --> 01:32:49,360
Speaker 3: getting popular than from the not It's not even close.

1576
01:32:49,439 --> 01:32:51,600
Speaker 3: I mean, Bebe's unpopular, and rightfully so.

1577
01:32:52,000 --> 01:32:55,679
Speaker 2: But Trump is wildly popular, very popular across because he's

1578
01:32:55,720 --> 01:32:56,599
Speaker 2: delivered for them.

1579
01:32:56,720 --> 01:33:00,000
Speaker 3: He's the one that moved the American embassy to jerusale

1580
01:33:00,120 --> 01:33:03,040
Speaker 3: him after so many presidents Democrat Republican promised and then

1581
01:33:03,080 --> 01:33:06,479
Speaker 3: didn't deliver. He's the one that recognized the goal on

1582
01:33:06,640 --> 01:33:10,799
Speaker 3: Heights as part of Israel, which another president, other presidents

1583
01:33:10,800 --> 01:33:11,280
Speaker 3: wouldn't do.

1584
01:33:11,600 --> 01:33:14,360
Speaker 2: So he has delivered for the israelis.

1585
01:33:15,720 --> 01:33:18,960
Speaker 1: No, which is why he alone might be the person,

1586
01:33:20,040 --> 01:33:22,080
Speaker 1: which may in its own way, why the world.

1587
01:33:21,960 --> 01:33:24,640
Speaker 2: Sort OF's like, Okay, you can get this done, go

1588
01:33:24,720 --> 01:33:26,479
Speaker 2: do it right. Yeah.

1589
01:33:26,760 --> 01:33:30,120
Speaker 3: I mean, clearly he was more more capable of pressuring

1590
01:33:30,320 --> 01:33:32,920
Speaker 3: Israel when he felt like it, and he didn't.

1591
01:33:35,320 --> 01:33:37,400
Speaker 2: Is this Nixon to China? Will this be like that

1592
01:33:37,520 --> 01:33:39,519
Speaker 2: kind of foreign policy victory in his legacy?

1593
01:33:39,760 --> 01:33:43,080
Speaker 3: Not? I think not if if BB wins, if he's

1594
01:33:43,080 --> 01:33:45,880
Speaker 3: a he's part of the coalition, because I think that again,

1595
01:33:45,960 --> 01:33:50,439
Speaker 3: what Trump really wants is the Saudi normalization, and I

1596
01:33:50,439 --> 01:33:53,800
Speaker 3: guess Phoebe's gone. You can't do that until you end

1597
01:33:53,880 --> 01:33:57,760
Speaker 3: the Israeli occupation of guys that you create some reconstruction.

1598
01:33:58,439 --> 01:33:59,760
Speaker 3: I don't think it has to be a state, but

1599
01:33:59,800 --> 01:34:03,240
Speaker 3: there has to be some kind of self governance with

1600
01:34:03,400 --> 01:34:07,760
Speaker 3: security provided by outsiders but not Israel, and that just

1601
01:34:07,920 --> 01:34:10,439
Speaker 3: I don't think that can happen as long as BIB

1602
01:34:10,640 --> 01:34:13,160
Speaker 3: is there. And let's also keep in mind that the

1603
01:34:13,200 --> 01:34:17,720
Speaker 3: settlements in the West Bank are expanding and BB's far

1604
01:34:17,840 --> 01:34:22,320
Speaker 3: right allies are pushing that and not Yahoo is supporting it.

1605
01:34:22,800 --> 01:34:25,200
Speaker 2: Yep. I don't know how to unwind that.

1606
01:34:26,800 --> 01:34:28,920
Speaker 3: No that I think that that those are facts on

1607
01:34:28,960 --> 01:34:30,360
Speaker 3: the ground and ye, I.

1608
01:34:30,360 --> 01:34:31,519
Speaker 2: Don't know how unwind it is.

1609
01:34:31,640 --> 01:34:36,240
Speaker 1: It's a I've been in plenty of conversations with a

1610
01:34:36,280 --> 01:34:40,679
Speaker 1: certain monarch who touches that West Bank. I mean some things,

1611
01:34:40,720 --> 01:34:42,160
Speaker 1: the toothpastes out of the tube.

1612
01:34:42,400 --> 01:34:45,680
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, I mean how many millions of Palestinians are

1613
01:34:45,680 --> 01:34:49,360
Speaker 3: living in Jordan now? And the right of return, Yeah,

1614
01:34:49,400 --> 01:34:51,920
Speaker 3: that is never happening. Remember, there was a deal that

1615
01:34:52,120 --> 01:34:56,400
Speaker 3: Jared Broker that got you before the Abraham Accords that

1616
01:34:56,439 --> 01:34:59,360
Speaker 3: I mean was a lot less territory for the Palestinians

1617
01:34:59,840 --> 01:35:03,639
Speaker 3: than they would have had with the previous Camp David Accords,

1618
01:35:04,120 --> 01:35:09,200
Speaker 3: and yet you know, couldn't get done, non starter for

1619
01:35:09,240 --> 01:35:12,400
Speaker 3: the Palestinians, and still reflected much more than they have now.

1620
01:35:12,680 --> 01:35:17,480
Speaker 3: And that's the problems, the power asymmetries between the Palestinians

1621
01:35:17,479 --> 01:35:20,760
Speaker 3: and the Israelis, and between the entire access of resistance

1622
01:35:20,760 --> 01:35:24,160
Speaker 3: in the Israelis, including Iran and the Israelis. The Israelis

1623
01:35:24,200 --> 01:35:27,920
Speaker 3: have the military capabilities and the wherewithal, No, they're.

1624
01:35:27,760 --> 01:35:29,719
Speaker 2: Going to be able to dictate the terms of the surrender.

1625
01:35:29,880 --> 01:35:32,000
Speaker 2: It's funny, Anton Yahoo just came out today.

1626
01:35:32,040 --> 01:35:33,880
Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw that and said he

1627
01:35:33,960 --> 01:35:39,400
Speaker 3: really wants to end the Israeli reliance on all of

1628
01:35:39,439 --> 01:35:41,960
Speaker 3: the American foreign aid in the next ten years.

1629
01:35:41,960 --> 01:35:43,559
Speaker 2: He doesn't want any more defense support.

1630
01:35:43,840 --> 01:35:47,679
Speaker 3: He wants the belief and the support of the American

1631
01:35:47,720 --> 01:35:49,960
Speaker 3: people the American government, but he doesn't want the money.

1632
01:35:50,040 --> 01:35:52,719
Speaker 2: I mean, I will believe that when it happens.

1633
01:35:52,960 --> 01:35:57,439
Speaker 3: But it's interesting because he understands that the relying on

1634
01:35:57,479 --> 01:36:01,080
Speaker 3: the American taxpayers has been such an incredible populous push

1635
01:36:01,120 --> 01:36:04,880
Speaker 3: in the US, and the US has ended that for

1636
01:36:05,120 --> 01:36:06,280
Speaker 3: you know, almost.

1637
01:36:06,040 --> 01:36:09,760
Speaker 1: Everybody else around the phebe if bb well, nobody's done

1638
01:36:09,800 --> 01:36:12,160
Speaker 1: more damage days or his reputation in the United States

1639
01:36:12,320 --> 01:36:16,320
Speaker 1: than bb netya left and right for we can say

1640
01:36:16,320 --> 01:36:16,760
Speaker 1: some of it.

1641
01:36:17,000 --> 01:36:18,920
Speaker 2: He is on him for sure. Whatever it is, he

1642
01:36:19,000 --> 01:36:20,600
Speaker 2: has not helped.

1643
01:36:20,360 --> 01:36:22,680
Speaker 1: The situation, particularly in.

1644
01:36:22,640 --> 01:36:24,240
Speaker 2: His very divisive figure.

1645
01:36:24,280 --> 01:36:28,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, particularly and I think how he handled Obama. Let's

1646
01:36:28,479 --> 01:36:36,519
Speaker 1: move to Ukraine. Yeah, it feels as if let me

1647
01:36:36,560 --> 01:36:39,320
Speaker 1: ask you, this is Trump going to be fine if

1648
01:36:39,320 --> 01:36:42,280
Speaker 1: the Europeans take the lead in helping the Ukrainians. And

1649
01:36:42,320 --> 01:36:44,559
Speaker 1: does he just sort of has he given up on Putin?

1650
01:36:45,400 --> 01:36:47,439
Speaker 1: Because I get the sense he's thinking about giving up

1651
01:36:47,439 --> 01:36:47,880
Speaker 1: on Putin?

1652
01:36:48,120 --> 01:36:50,479
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, but you probably would have had that

1653
01:36:50,640 --> 01:36:54,559
Speaker 3: sense occasionally on several on several occasions over the last

1654
01:36:54,560 --> 01:36:55,080
Speaker 3: six months.

1655
01:36:55,160 --> 01:36:57,680
Speaker 2: Right, he's he's kind of moved in that direction of

1656
01:36:57,720 --> 01:36:58,679
Speaker 2: the anti backs off.

1657
01:36:58,840 --> 01:37:02,200
Speaker 3: He does, Yeahorady to hit the Ukrainians again because they're

1658
01:37:02,200 --> 01:37:03,240
Speaker 3: we can see if you can get.

1659
01:37:03,160 --> 01:37:05,120
Speaker 2: More out of them. He wants to end the war.

1660
01:37:05,760 --> 01:37:07,040
Speaker 2: He's failed to end the war.

1661
01:37:07,439 --> 01:37:11,280
Speaker 3: It's mostly because the Russians are giving him nothing. He's

1662
01:37:11,320 --> 01:37:13,200
Speaker 3: put a little bit of pressure on Russia, but far

1663
01:37:13,280 --> 01:37:18,000
Speaker 3: more pressure on the Ukrainians. But the interesting thing is

1664
01:37:18,040 --> 01:37:21,720
Speaker 3: that the Europeans are now spending all the money. So

1665
01:37:21,880 --> 01:37:25,639
Speaker 3: for Trump to cut off Ukraine, well, that would have

1666
01:37:25,760 --> 01:37:30,360
Speaker 3: to tell the American military industrial complex you are no

1667
01:37:30,479 --> 01:37:33,320
Speaker 3: longer allowed to sell weapons to the Europeans.

1668
01:37:34,240 --> 01:37:39,320
Speaker 1: Well wait a minute, but intelligent intelligence sharing still happening, right, yeah, yeah,

1669
01:37:39,360 --> 01:37:42,439
Speaker 1: But I mean if that were cut off, that would

1670
01:37:42,439 --> 01:37:43,000
Speaker 1: be a big deal.

1671
01:37:43,000 --> 01:37:44,360
Speaker 2: Not as small it would.

1672
01:37:44,240 --> 01:37:48,080
Speaker 3: It would absolutely it is less of a complete game

1673
01:37:48,200 --> 01:37:53,840
Speaker 3: changer than having the ammunition and having the missiles and

1674
01:37:53,880 --> 01:37:57,280
Speaker 3: all the rest. But the reality is that the United

1675
01:37:57,320 --> 01:38:02,360
Speaker 3: States is going to continue to provide those weapons. They're

1676
01:38:02,400 --> 01:38:04,639
Speaker 3: going to continue to allow the Europeans to buy them

1677
01:38:04,680 --> 01:38:07,680
Speaker 3: and transfer them to Ukraine, and that allows the Ukrainians

1678
01:38:07,720 --> 01:38:09,760
Speaker 3: to continue to fight, and that's a pretty big deal.

1679
01:38:09,840 --> 01:38:13,480
Speaker 3: So the Americans are going to continue to be complicit,

1680
01:38:13,960 --> 01:38:17,800
Speaker 3: fully complicit in Ukraine's defense, and as long as that

1681
01:38:17,920 --> 01:38:21,479
Speaker 3: is true, you can't really have a US Russian deal.

1682
01:38:21,560 --> 01:38:24,839
Speaker 3: So Trump has kind of been cut off by the Europeans.

1683
01:38:24,880 --> 01:38:28,240
Speaker 3: The Europeans have bought themselves a seat at the table.

1684
01:38:28,240 --> 01:38:33,080
Speaker 3: They've bought themselves a veto on Trump's ability to drive

1685
01:38:33,240 --> 01:38:38,280
Speaker 3: full capitulation of the Ukrainians, and that forces Trump to

1686
01:38:38,800 --> 01:38:41,160
Speaker 3: squeeze the Russians a little bit more if he wants

1687
01:38:41,160 --> 01:38:44,000
Speaker 3: to try to get a ceasefire, like he has on

1688
01:38:44,240 --> 01:38:48,519
Speaker 3: telling the Indians to stop buying Russian oil or else

1689
01:38:49,000 --> 01:38:52,519
Speaker 3: there won't be a US India trade deal. And mukesh

1690
01:38:52,560 --> 01:38:56,880
Speaker 3: Ambani in reliance just stopped buying Russian crude in the

1691
01:38:56,960 --> 01:39:01,200
Speaker 3: last few weeks, for example. So it's me it's causing

1692
01:39:01,240 --> 01:39:03,360
Speaker 3: some some pain to the Russians.

1693
01:39:04,320 --> 01:39:07,639
Speaker 1: What's some you know, we've we've there's been a lot

1694
01:39:07,680 --> 01:39:11,160
Speaker 1: of speculation that the longer this war goes, that eventually

1695
01:39:11,200 --> 01:39:16,840
Speaker 1: it would create internal descent in Russia. In Russia, you know,

1696
01:39:17,040 --> 01:39:20,120
Speaker 1: you hear anecdotal. We'll see a report here or there.

1697
01:39:21,600 --> 01:39:25,040
Speaker 1: One would assume that now more people know somebody killed

1698
01:39:25,040 --> 01:39:27,800
Speaker 1: in this war than they did yesterday and the day before,

1699
01:39:27,800 --> 01:39:31,479
Speaker 1: et cetera. Yeah, what's your sense in your sources of

1700
01:39:31,479 --> 01:39:36,800
Speaker 1: of sort of of of the the level of discouragement

1701
01:39:36,880 --> 01:39:39,599
Speaker 1: in the Russian populace over this war, not.

1702
01:39:39,479 --> 01:39:40,760
Speaker 2: Seeing anything meaningful.

1703
01:39:41,960 --> 01:39:46,000
Speaker 3: I mean, we've seen a couple of saw one former

1704
01:39:46,080 --> 01:39:49,200
Speaker 3: general that came out publicly and talked about what a

1705
01:39:49,320 --> 01:39:51,040
Speaker 3: kind of disaster. This was the sort of thing that

1706
01:39:51,080 --> 01:39:53,240
Speaker 3: you hear some people say internally but never publicly.

1707
01:39:53,280 --> 01:39:54,760
Speaker 2: That was a little surprising some.

1708
01:39:54,800 --> 01:39:59,120
Speaker 3: Of the bloggers who are quite patriotic talking about the

1709
01:39:59,160 --> 01:40:01,760
Speaker 3: fact that the Russian military is not performing as well

1710
01:40:01,760 --> 01:40:04,040
Speaker 3: as it should for examples a little that put.

1711
01:40:04,400 --> 01:40:07,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's sometimes more criticism from his right. You haven't

1712
01:40:07,960 --> 01:40:10,160
Speaker 1: been strong enough, you haven't been aggressive enough.

1713
01:40:10,240 --> 01:40:13,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, but within the population not so much. Now

1714
01:40:13,680 --> 01:40:16,800
Speaker 3: the economy, I think less about the Russians that are

1715
01:40:16,800 --> 01:40:19,200
Speaker 3: getting killed, although there are a lot of them. They're

1716
01:40:19,240 --> 01:40:22,479
Speaker 3: not from Moscow, they're not from Petersburg. They're from you know,

1717
01:40:22,560 --> 01:40:25,160
Speaker 3: sort of areas that are going to cause much less trouble,

1718
01:40:26,080 --> 01:40:28,720
Speaker 3: and they're prisoners.

1719
01:40:27,760 --> 01:40:31,479
Speaker 1: That was obviously done on purpose, right, he doesn't want

1720
01:40:32,000 --> 01:40:34,519
Speaker 1: people at Moscow or Saint Petersburg to get first hand

1721
01:40:34,560 --> 01:40:35,240
Speaker 1: glimpses of But I.

1722
01:40:35,240 --> 01:40:37,639
Speaker 3: Do think the Russian economy is starting to take more

1723
01:40:37,840 --> 01:40:43,600
Speaker 3: of a hit as a consequence of low oil prices

1724
01:40:43,640 --> 01:40:45,479
Speaker 3: and the squeeze.

1725
01:40:44,920 --> 01:40:49,280
Speaker 2: From all of these sanctions, especially the energy sanctions. So

1726
01:40:49,320 --> 01:40:50,879
Speaker 2: it does. I do think it matters.

1727
01:40:51,280 --> 01:40:55,719
Speaker 3: But I also think that ultimately the Ukrainians are having

1728
01:40:55,760 --> 01:40:58,240
Speaker 3: a harder time of it in terms of maintaining this

1729
01:40:58,360 --> 01:41:02,120
Speaker 3: level of fighting, and I think that the Europeans are

1730
01:41:02,160 --> 01:41:04,280
Speaker 3: having a harder time if we look over the next

1731
01:41:04,280 --> 01:41:06,479
Speaker 3: two three years. The fact that everything you've asked me

1732
01:41:06,520 --> 01:41:11,000
Speaker 3: about Greenland, everything we've talked about America squeezing the Europeans

1733
01:41:11,040 --> 01:41:11,320
Speaker 3: as well.

1734
01:41:11,320 --> 01:41:12,759
Speaker 2: If you're Putin, if.

1735
01:41:12,600 --> 01:41:15,559
Speaker 3: I'm advising Putin, I'm telling him double down on pressure

1736
01:41:15,560 --> 01:41:19,120
Speaker 3: in Europe because you because maybe your big crag, Yeah

1737
01:41:19,160 --> 01:41:20,160
Speaker 3: you might be able to crack.

1738
01:41:20,840 --> 01:41:24,040
Speaker 2: Well, that's an interesting is there who.

1739
01:41:25,960 --> 01:41:29,120
Speaker 3: Of our By the way, I'm sorry, but I've got

1740
01:41:29,360 --> 01:41:31,080
Speaker 3: I'm going to have to go in like four minutes.

1741
01:41:31,120 --> 01:41:33,120
Speaker 2: Just okay, all right, let me get you out of here.

1742
01:41:33,120 --> 01:41:33,879
Speaker 2: On two questions.

1743
01:41:34,040 --> 01:41:38,640
Speaker 1: Question one, is this who's the most secure leader in

1744
01:41:38,680 --> 01:41:42,120
Speaker 1: Europe right now? In the sort of the western part

1745
01:41:42,160 --> 01:41:45,120
Speaker 1: of your you know, the sort of the G seven.

1746
01:41:44,920 --> 01:41:48,480
Speaker 2: Allies the most secure.

1747
01:41:48,800 --> 01:41:53,760
Speaker 3: I mean, the Italian Maloney is probably the most popular

1748
01:41:54,280 --> 01:41:57,559
Speaker 3: among the major economies right now.

1749
01:41:57,600 --> 01:42:01,080
Speaker 2: And France seems like it's a mession. Governments used to

1750
01:42:01,120 --> 01:42:03,280
Speaker 2: fall apart every few months, right now.

1751
01:42:03,320 --> 01:42:06,679
Speaker 1: That's that the French National Assembly says, hey, we hold

1752
01:42:06,720 --> 01:42:07,400
Speaker 1: our champaigne.

1753
01:42:07,400 --> 01:42:08,840
Speaker 2: We'll do this now. Yeah, I mean, the.

1754
01:42:10,640 --> 01:42:13,439
Speaker 3: Macron's not going anywhere because the general elections are in

1755
01:42:13,439 --> 01:42:14,200
Speaker 3: twenty twenty seven.

1756
01:42:14,240 --> 01:42:15,360
Speaker 2: Everyone's going to wait for that.

1757
01:42:15,400 --> 01:42:17,920
Speaker 3: But they've been you know, governments that they've had, like

1758
01:42:18,040 --> 01:42:21,439
Speaker 3: multiple prime ministers that mess. Yeah, yeah, I mean Germany

1759
01:42:21,600 --> 01:42:24,559
Speaker 3: is I guess you'd say Germany is more stable because

1760
01:42:24,680 --> 01:42:30,439
Speaker 3: you know, grand coalition multi party system understand they benefit

1761
01:42:30,479 --> 01:42:35,280
Speaker 3: from the EU, and yet the parties in that system

1762
01:42:35,600 --> 01:42:39,519
Speaker 3: disagree on so much that it's become very dysfunctional. And

1763
01:42:39,560 --> 01:42:45,000
Speaker 3: as the German economy continues to underperform, the AfD on

1764
01:42:45,520 --> 01:42:48,960
Speaker 3: the right and dur Linka on the left continue to

1765
01:42:49,040 --> 01:42:51,679
Speaker 3: do quite well. This year, They're gonna be five state

1766
01:42:51,680 --> 01:42:54,120
Speaker 3: elections in Germany. I expect the far right is going

1767
01:42:54,200 --> 01:42:58,120
Speaker 3: to do very well. So I mean, there's no great

1768
01:42:58,160 --> 01:43:00,520
Speaker 3: answer for that question, is what I'm telling.

1769
01:43:00,200 --> 01:43:02,760
Speaker 1: You, all right, And one year from now is going

1770
01:43:02,840 --> 01:43:03,840
Speaker 1: to be twenty twenty seven.

1771
01:43:03,960 --> 01:43:06,640
Speaker 3: And the Greece is probably the country that's doing the

1772
01:43:06,680 --> 01:43:10,920
Speaker 3: best because they've had post Grexit, They've had great, great

1773
01:43:11,000 --> 01:43:11,839
Speaker 3: strong government.

1774
01:43:12,040 --> 01:43:15,479
Speaker 1: It's fascinating to see the southern European countries have an

1775
01:43:15,520 --> 01:43:18,120
Speaker 1: economic boom after having such a disaster and have to

1776
01:43:18,120 --> 01:43:19,240
Speaker 1: be built out by the Germans.

1777
01:43:19,360 --> 01:43:22,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, back in that long ago, very quickly.

1778
01:43:22,800 --> 01:43:25,120
Speaker 1: Next year is supposed to be the year that China

1779
01:43:25,160 --> 01:43:29,320
Speaker 1: takes Taiwan. Where are we at? What is your expectation

1780
01:43:29,439 --> 01:43:32,080
Speaker 1: and do you expect Donald Trump to stand in the way.

1781
01:43:33,439 --> 01:43:38,799
Speaker 3: I think that the Chinese and the Americans have both

1782
01:43:38,880 --> 01:43:43,040
Speaker 3: understand that a level of stabilization of that relationship is

1783
01:43:43,040 --> 01:43:46,599
Speaker 3: good for them after the big fights that they had

1784
01:43:46,760 --> 01:43:50,840
Speaker 3: on tariffs and export controls and licensing last year. And

1785
01:43:50,920 --> 01:43:55,760
Speaker 3: I think that means that Chinese understand that an invasion

1786
01:43:55,800 --> 01:44:00,439
Speaker 3: of Taiwan would be really, really bad if Americans screwing

1787
01:44:00,520 --> 01:44:02,800
Speaker 3: up in so many areas long term, don't get in

1788
01:44:02,840 --> 01:44:06,400
Speaker 3: their way, and you know, make hay.

1789
01:44:06,280 --> 01:44:07,280
Speaker 2: In other places.

1790
01:44:07,600 --> 01:44:11,360
Speaker 3: So I could see the Chinese testing Taiwan on certain

1791
01:44:11,400 --> 01:44:17,679
Speaker 3: issues like bigger exercises and maybe a coastguard boarding a ship,

1792
01:44:17,800 --> 01:44:21,439
Speaker 3: you know sort of thing, maybe some political and economic pressure,

1793
01:44:22,320 --> 01:44:26,000
Speaker 3: but not that that's very different from an invasion. Nothing

1794
01:44:26,000 --> 01:44:30,360
Speaker 3: that would be an action forcing event or an embarrassment

1795
01:44:30,840 --> 01:44:32,320
Speaker 3: for the US administration.

1796
01:44:32,800 --> 01:44:36,200
Speaker 1: But if we're embracing sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere,

1797
01:44:36,479 --> 01:44:36,960
Speaker 1: how is that?

1798
01:44:37,080 --> 01:44:39,680
Speaker 2: How does Beijing not see that as a right?

1799
01:44:39,880 --> 01:44:43,240
Speaker 3: I mean, where on the one hand, On the one hand,

1800
01:44:43,600 --> 01:44:47,080
Speaker 3: the Western Hemisphere is not the limit of American ambitions

1801
01:44:47,120 --> 01:44:47,719
Speaker 3: in the world.

1802
01:44:47,920 --> 01:44:49,120
Speaker 2: It is a prioritization.

1803
01:44:49,800 --> 01:44:54,519
Speaker 3: On the other hand, American military dominance in the Western

1804
01:44:54,560 --> 01:45:00,519
Speaker 3: Hemisphere does not relate easily with Chinese commercial dominance with

1805
01:45:00,680 --> 01:45:05,839
Speaker 3: most of the countries outside of the US and Canada

1806
01:45:05,920 --> 01:45:09,320
Speaker 3: and Mexico, and that's not going to change anytime soon.

1807
01:45:09,400 --> 01:45:12,720
Speaker 3: So I think the sphere of influence argument is overstated.

1808
01:45:13,880 --> 01:45:18,240
Speaker 2: Ian bremer Man, I always appreciate this steward to force.

1809
01:45:18,320 --> 01:45:20,559
Speaker 2: Thank you a lot of fun to do. Let me do.

1810
01:45:21,080 --> 01:45:23,640
Speaker 1: I love traveling the world with you, and who knows,

1811
01:45:23,680 --> 01:45:25,000
Speaker 1: someday we man actually do it in person.

1812
01:45:25,040 --> 01:45:26,559
Speaker 2: Good luck in Davos, it'd be a lot of my

1813
01:45:26,560 --> 01:45:27,200
Speaker 2: fun O jeez.

1814
01:45:27,200 --> 01:45:29,679
Speaker 1: The fact that Trump goes to Davos, is that clearly

1815
01:45:29,720 --> 01:45:32,200
Speaker 1: that an American president goes Oh well, I.

1816
01:45:32,120 --> 01:45:33,920
Speaker 3: Mean the sense that the Americans are going to be

1817
01:45:33,960 --> 01:45:36,080
Speaker 3: meeting with so many different leaders around the world.

1818
01:45:36,080 --> 01:45:37,559
Speaker 2: The communication is good, but if.

1819
01:45:37,479 --> 01:45:40,040
Speaker 3: You watch how the heads of state and how the

1820
01:45:40,080 --> 01:45:44,240
Speaker 3: CEOs comport themselves publicly with him, it is very different

1821
01:45:44,280 --> 01:45:45,920
Speaker 3: from the way they talk privately, and that is a

1822
01:45:45,920 --> 01:45:47,719
Speaker 3: big part of the problem.

1823
01:45:48,320 --> 01:45:50,799
Speaker 1: Oh well, that's why we have you and your tremendous

1824
01:45:50,800 --> 01:45:54,800
Speaker 1: newsletter that is available for free. Even it's tremendous G

1825
01:45:54,960 --> 01:45:57,439
Speaker 1: zero and boy you have said we live in a

1826
01:45:57,479 --> 01:45:58,320
Speaker 1: G zero world.

1827
01:45:58,680 --> 01:46:02,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, well we're there now. Congrats, we are there now,

1828
01:46:02,280 --> 01:46:12,559
Speaker 2: Thanks Chuck. I hope you enjoyed that.

1829
01:46:12,600 --> 01:46:16,880
Speaker 1: And while uh, while we've been taping, you know, and

1830
01:46:16,960 --> 01:46:21,160
Speaker 1: as just to be full disclosure, here reports of airspace

1831
01:46:21,200 --> 01:46:25,599
Speaker 1: being cleared on the border of Iraq and Iran. Who

1832
01:46:25,680 --> 01:46:27,960
Speaker 1: knows what kind of head fakes are going on with Trump,

1833
01:46:27,960 --> 01:46:34,280
Speaker 1: but it whether this is simply a threat to see

1834
01:46:34,320 --> 01:46:37,360
Speaker 1: if it really does work with the Iranian regime. Look,

1835
01:46:38,080 --> 01:46:43,960
Speaker 1: I think the bottom line is is one thing you

1836
01:46:44,000 --> 01:46:51,120
Speaker 1: need to remember with these with these dictatorships, it takes

1837
01:46:51,160 --> 01:46:52,800
Speaker 1: forever for them to fall, and then all of a

1838
01:46:52,840 --> 01:46:58,960
Speaker 1: sudden it happens in a blink of an eye. I

1839
01:46:59,040 --> 01:47:02,599
Speaker 1: go back to the series example, right, we knew Asad

1840
01:47:02,760 --> 01:47:05,479
Speaker 1: was going to fall, it ended up happening a few

1841
01:47:05,520 --> 01:47:08,519
Speaker 1: years later than anybody thought it would. And then when

1842
01:47:08,560 --> 01:47:11,639
Speaker 1: it happened, he was gone, and it happened super quickly,

1843
01:47:11,640 --> 01:47:13,719
Speaker 1: And all of a sudden, somebody who we once deemed

1844
01:47:13,760 --> 01:47:17,240
Speaker 1: a terrorist is having an Oval Office sit down with

1845
01:47:17,280 --> 01:47:18,400
Speaker 1: the President of United States.

1846
01:47:18,640 --> 01:47:19,599
Speaker 2: Right, So.

1847
01:47:22,960 --> 01:47:27,200
Speaker 1: You know, it's is one of those things where I

1848
01:47:27,240 --> 01:47:33,519
Speaker 1: don't know if the fall of the Islamic regime there

1849
01:47:33,680 --> 01:47:37,679
Speaker 1: is going to be happened in the next few weeks,

1850
01:47:38,600 --> 01:47:41,800
Speaker 1: but it's certainly clear they're closer to the end than

1851
01:47:41,880 --> 01:47:44,559
Speaker 1: the beginning. All right, let's do a few questions here.

1852
01:47:44,680 --> 01:47:45,360
Speaker 2: Ask Chuck.

1853
01:47:48,720 --> 01:47:51,320
Speaker 1: This one comes from JR. He goes Daily listener here.

1854
01:47:51,760 --> 01:47:55,840
Speaker 1: Thanks for taking questions. Appreciate that my questions about Mississippi.

1855
01:47:55,840 --> 01:47:57,840
Speaker 1: It seems like every chance you get, you include Mississippi

1856
01:47:57,880 --> 01:47:59,840
Speaker 1: as a state dem should focus on, or a state

1857
01:47:59,840 --> 01:48:02,360
Speaker 1: you'd like to see Dems out put on the map.

1858
01:48:02,680 --> 01:48:03,320
Speaker 2: I know s P.

1859
01:48:03,320 --> 01:48:05,599
Speaker 1: Presley and Hunt were legit Democratic candidate. But I'm curious

1860
01:48:05,600 --> 01:48:08,240
Speaker 1: where your bullishness comes from. What signs of hope have

1861
01:48:08,320 --> 01:48:11,200
Speaker 1: you seen that gives you confidence at a state like

1862
01:48:11,200 --> 01:48:13,400
Speaker 1: Mississippi could legitimately be competitive in the.

1863
01:48:13,320 --> 01:48:14,080
Speaker 2: Next few years.

1864
01:48:14,560 --> 01:48:17,160
Speaker 1: Look, I'll say, and I don't. You might have caught

1865
01:48:17,240 --> 01:48:22,439
Speaker 1: I can't. I will confess. One of the things I've

1866
01:48:22,520 --> 01:48:25,439
Speaker 1: learned in this independent media space is you think you've

1867
01:48:25,680 --> 01:48:27,600
Speaker 1: said something in one place and you think I'm going

1868
01:48:27,680 --> 01:48:30,280
Speaker 1: to repeat myself, but you never know where people hear this.

1869
01:48:30,360 --> 01:48:33,720
Speaker 1: So I may have repeated this in this space, but

1870
01:48:33,880 --> 01:48:40,000
Speaker 1: maybe not. With Mississippi. It's simply numbers and the number

1871
01:48:40,200 --> 01:48:48,960
Speaker 1: of inactive potential voters African American voters in Mississippi, unregistered

1872
01:48:49,000 --> 01:48:52,919
Speaker 1: African American voters or inactive African American voters meaning registered

1873
01:48:52,960 --> 01:48:55,080
Speaker 1: but you don't. And it goes to and I think

1874
01:48:55,120 --> 01:48:57,200
Speaker 1: I was making this point the other day that the

1875
01:48:57,240 --> 01:49:04,559
Speaker 1: Democratic parties slow retreat from rural America wasn't just from

1876
01:49:04,640 --> 01:49:05,719
Speaker 1: white rural America.

1877
01:49:06,320 --> 01:49:06,519
Speaker 2: Right.

1878
01:49:07,920 --> 01:49:12,639
Speaker 1: Democrats have struggled in black rural America and in Hispanic America.

1879
01:49:12,720 --> 01:49:12,880
Speaker 2: Right.

1880
01:49:12,920 --> 01:49:16,920
Speaker 1: We saw it in South Texas, and the reason why

1881
01:49:16,960 --> 01:49:20,240
Speaker 1: Democrats keep coming up short just about in every competitive

1882
01:49:20,240 --> 01:49:24,000
Speaker 1: election in North Carolina, but one in two thousand and eight,

1883
01:49:24,000 --> 01:49:26,200
Speaker 1: when when Obama carried the state and brought a Senate

1884
01:49:26,240 --> 01:49:31,640
Speaker 1: seat with him, was under performance in majority black rural counties.

1885
01:49:33,040 --> 01:49:33,840
Speaker 2: In the South.

1886
01:49:34,240 --> 01:49:39,160
Speaker 1: There's a lot of majority rural African American counties that

1887
01:49:39,320 --> 01:49:42,960
Speaker 1: feel as if they're ignored, that feel as if their

1888
01:49:43,080 --> 01:49:47,639
Speaker 1: issues essentially there. You know, the issues of urban African

1889
01:49:47,680 --> 01:49:50,760
Speaker 1: Americans are different than the issues from rural African Americans.

1890
01:49:51,240 --> 01:49:53,479
Speaker 1: So it's been however you want to look at it,

1891
01:49:53,479 --> 01:49:57,800
Speaker 1: it's been a lack of focus. But I think, you know,

1892
01:50:00,680 --> 01:50:04,040
Speaker 1: Mississippi and to a lesser extent, South Carolina, there is

1893
01:50:04,080 --> 01:50:09,600
Speaker 1: an under activated population of African Americans who, in my

1894
01:50:09,800 --> 01:50:12,680
Speaker 1: talks with organizers in those states over time, they just

1895
01:50:12,720 --> 01:50:16,599
Speaker 1: simply say it's more out of do they really care,

1896
01:50:17,200 --> 01:50:19,720
Speaker 1: it's they feel they have felt passed over for a

1897
01:50:19,760 --> 01:50:23,280
Speaker 1: long time. They have felt ignored. So I'm not saying

1898
01:50:23,280 --> 01:50:26,800
Speaker 1: Democrats don't have work that they need to do, but

1899
01:50:26,880 --> 01:50:30,200
Speaker 1: the opportunity is sitting there. Part of it is showing up,

1900
01:50:30,439 --> 01:50:32,160
Speaker 1: and then once you show up, you might have a

1901
01:50:32,160 --> 01:50:34,800
Speaker 1: shot at registering voters. But when you look at the

1902
01:50:35,479 --> 01:50:41,680
Speaker 1: simple demographics of Mississippi Democrats should be much more competitive

1903
01:50:41,720 --> 01:50:44,720
Speaker 1: than they are, and it all goes to essentially a

1904
01:50:44,760 --> 01:50:54,679
Speaker 1: big population of underactivated and unregistered African American voters. All right,

1905
01:50:55,240 --> 01:50:59,040
Speaker 1: Joanna Hey Chuck, as a lifelong Minnesota and former journalist,

1906
01:50:59,040 --> 01:51:02,519
Speaker 1: I was troubled by your recent comment suggesting ISIS conduct

1907
01:51:02,560 --> 01:51:05,280
Speaker 1: stems primarily from poor training. What we're witnessing here feels

1908
01:51:05,280 --> 01:51:08,519
Speaker 1: far more deliberate, violent and discriminate enforcement actions carried out

1909
01:51:08,560 --> 01:51:11,720
Speaker 1: without due process, including against you as citizens. This isn't

1910
01:51:11,720 --> 01:51:14,040
Speaker 1: a training failure. It reflects a deeper history of government

1911
01:51:14,240 --> 01:51:16,719
Speaker 1: sanctioned violence. I hope you'll reconsider ow this issue is framed.

1912
01:51:16,880 --> 01:51:18,600
Speaker 1: Given the weight of your voice carries. Thank you for

1913
01:51:18,640 --> 01:51:21,320
Speaker 1: what you do, respectfully, Joanna, Well, this is great, and

1914
01:51:21,760 --> 01:51:25,320
Speaker 1: I hope she took a listen to that political memo

1915
01:51:25,400 --> 01:51:28,639
Speaker 1: I was quoting earlier in this podcast, and I actually

1916
01:51:28,720 --> 01:51:32,479
Speaker 1: called I wanted folks to look. I guess I do

1917
01:51:32,560 --> 01:51:34,600
Speaker 1: believe this is a and if you go into the

1918
01:51:34,680 --> 01:51:38,760
Speaker 1: details of the lack of training these new ice officers

1919
01:51:39,920 --> 01:51:44,560
Speaker 1: are getting or not getting, essentially that they don't understand

1920
01:51:44,640 --> 01:51:48,599
Speaker 1: what the law is or isn't. They've gone down from

1921
01:51:48,680 --> 01:51:52,360
Speaker 1: six months down to six weeks of training, the type

1922
01:51:52,360 --> 01:51:54,800
Speaker 1: of recruitment videos they've done. So the point is is

1923
01:51:54,840 --> 01:52:00,439
Speaker 1: that this is I think what were the acts on

1924
01:52:00,479 --> 01:52:04,439
Speaker 1: the ground reflect the recruitment strategy and the training that

1925
01:52:04,439 --> 01:52:04,880
Speaker 1: they've done.

1926
01:52:04,960 --> 01:52:09,960
Speaker 2: So that's why it's it's it's not that I am.

1927
01:52:11,439 --> 01:52:14,720
Speaker 1: Defending the existence of ICE, but the we're going to

1928
01:52:14,840 --> 01:52:19,120
Speaker 1: have an immigration, Customs and Enforcement agency. If you don't,

1929
01:52:19,160 --> 01:52:21,080
Speaker 1: you don't have borders, you don't have sovereignty, you don't

1930
01:52:21,080 --> 01:52:26,800
Speaker 1: have a country. The issue is bad training, bad policy,

1931
01:52:27,080 --> 01:52:32,120
Speaker 1: bad leadership. And if that's why, I think that ultimately

1932
01:52:32,320 --> 01:52:39,240
Speaker 1: that's what this is about. And that's and I think

1933
01:52:39,280 --> 01:52:41,519
Speaker 1: that that is sort of when you take a step

1934
01:52:41,560 --> 01:52:45,920
Speaker 1: back and now that said, you know, living in the

1935
01:52:45,960 --> 01:52:49,160
Speaker 1: community is a different I get it, it's a different experience.

1936
01:52:49,760 --> 01:52:52,559
Speaker 1: It's very personalized, and I understand it. I understand the anger.

1937
01:52:52,600 --> 01:52:56,880
Speaker 1: I understand that. But ultimately, in order to get a

1938
01:52:57,000 --> 01:53:02,200
Speaker 1: policy change, I think that that I think you got

1939
01:53:02,360 --> 01:53:05,000
Speaker 1: to frame it at this because I guess I do

1940
01:53:05,120 --> 01:53:08,840
Speaker 1: believe this, that this is this is Look, I think

1941
01:53:08,880 --> 01:53:12,559
Speaker 1: it's an intentional targeting of Minnesota. This is not there

1942
01:53:12,640 --> 01:53:16,600
Speaker 1: is not this has been selective enforcement of our immigration

1943
01:53:16,680 --> 01:53:21,280
Speaker 1: laws based on political targeting by the White House. So look,

1944
01:53:21,320 --> 01:53:25,439
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to legitimize any of this. Well, what

1945
01:53:25,479 --> 01:53:29,439
Speaker 1: I am saying is that I, you know, be careful

1946
01:53:29,439 --> 01:53:32,400
Speaker 1: blaming the agency. It's the leadership above it. It's how

1947
01:53:32,400 --> 01:53:34,800
Speaker 1: it's being run, It's how it's being hired, how folks

1948
01:53:34,840 --> 01:53:39,880
Speaker 1: are being hired, and how they're being trained. So, by

1949
01:53:39,880 --> 01:53:41,920
Speaker 1: the way, Joanne, I'd love to hear your reaction to

1950
01:53:41,960 --> 01:53:45,920
Speaker 1: the memo that I quoted from from the folks at

1951
01:53:45,920 --> 01:53:50,040
Speaker 1: Searchlight in my earlier comments as well. Appreciate you listening

1952
01:53:50,520 --> 01:53:55,760
Speaker 1: and appreciate the thoughtful the thoughtful critique. I'm all for it.

1953
01:53:56,960 --> 01:53:59,360
Speaker 1: Mojack ninety nine checks in and he says, hey, I'm

1954
01:53:59,360 --> 01:54:03,640
Speaker 1: increasingly concerned about the potential polarization of law enforcement and

1955
01:54:03,680 --> 01:54:08,439
Speaker 1: the military potential. I think I might drop the word potential, Mojack,

1956
01:54:08,520 --> 01:54:11,160
Speaker 1: But anyway, but I digress. If Democrats were to win

1957
01:54:11,200 --> 01:54:12,920
Speaker 1: both chambers, how realistic do you think it is that

1958
01:54:12,960 --> 01:54:15,880
Speaker 1: Trump might attempt to declare martial law cigning election fraud

1959
01:54:15,920 --> 01:54:18,680
Speaker 1: or another pretext, And how might Republicans respond given the

1960
01:54:18,720 --> 01:54:21,240
Speaker 1: historical president of martial law at the state level. Could

1961
01:54:21,240 --> 01:54:24,599
Speaker 1: such actions be selectively targeted at Democratic led states. I'd

1962
01:54:24,640 --> 01:54:26,120
Speaker 1: love to hear your take on the likelihood of this

1963
01:54:26,160 --> 01:54:30,760
Speaker 1: and what guardrails exists. So, you know, one of the

1964
01:54:30,760 --> 01:54:33,400
Speaker 1: things that I'm well aware of the human brain is

1965
01:54:33,440 --> 01:54:36,680
Speaker 1: when you've not seen something happen, you don't believe it will.

1966
01:54:37,280 --> 01:54:37,480
Speaker 2: Right.

1967
01:54:38,040 --> 01:54:42,080
Speaker 1: And while we and this stuff has happened, but it

1968
01:54:42,160 --> 01:54:44,560
Speaker 1: happened over one hundred years ago in certain states, right,

1969
01:54:48,480 --> 01:54:52,920
Speaker 1: I am nervous about the right. We've had the Justice

1970
01:54:52,960 --> 01:54:56,120
Speaker 1: Department trying to get its hands on voter rolls and

1971
01:54:56,160 --> 01:54:58,840
Speaker 1: they've specifically been going to blue states to do this,

1972
01:55:00,040 --> 01:55:04,839
Speaker 1: and states that have not complied they have threatened to sue.

1973
01:55:04,880 --> 01:55:06,600
Speaker 1: So this is going to show up in court. So

1974
01:55:06,640 --> 01:55:10,560
Speaker 1: we'll see what kind of how important the tenth Amendment

1975
01:55:10,680 --> 01:55:15,720
Speaker 1: is on this front. You have a recent directive where

1976
01:55:15,760 --> 01:55:20,280
Speaker 1: I think the President plans to try to deny certain

1977
01:55:20,320 --> 01:55:24,680
Speaker 1: funding to blue states if they have a quote sanctuary

1978
01:55:24,720 --> 01:55:28,600
Speaker 1: city policy, meaning you know where there are laws in

1979
01:55:28,640 --> 01:55:32,200
Speaker 1: the books that direct local law enforcement not to cooperate

1980
01:55:32,240 --> 01:55:38,440
Speaker 1: with ice or immigration enforcement that is not criminal, you know,

1981
01:55:38,760 --> 01:55:45,720
Speaker 1: And so you know, I vacillate on this one.

1982
01:55:46,000 --> 01:55:46,720
Speaker 2: I think that.

1983
01:55:48,680 --> 01:55:52,440
Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to be like, look, Jonathan

1984
01:55:52,520 --> 01:55:55,960
Speaker 1: last over the bulwark is like, you know, the dark

1985
01:55:56,040 --> 01:55:58,800
Speaker 1: days are here and it's only going to get worse. Right,

1986
01:55:58,800 --> 01:56:02,280
Speaker 1: It's always darkest before goes all black. An old McCain

1987
01:56:02,360 --> 01:56:10,000
Speaker 1: joke about that. He used to quote of Maw. I

1988
01:56:10,080 --> 01:56:13,919
Speaker 1: do think that what we've watched with the current iteration

1989
01:56:14,000 --> 01:56:17,760
Speaker 1: of the Republican Party, that there are enough folks that

1990
01:56:17,840 --> 01:56:21,120
Speaker 1: are constitutionalists. No matter how much they support many of

1991
01:56:21,120 --> 01:56:24,160
Speaker 1: the of the populist policies of the MAGA movement, they're

1992
01:56:24,160 --> 01:56:28,240
Speaker 1: still constitutionalists at the end of the day and respectful

1993
01:56:28,280 --> 01:56:31,440
Speaker 1: of the Constitution and leary you know, whether it's and

1994
01:56:32,040 --> 01:56:37,640
Speaker 1: right we so I do. I think somebody inside that

1995
01:56:37,760 --> 01:56:43,320
Speaker 1: administration may whisper ideas like this in his ear. If

1996
01:56:43,360 --> 01:56:48,400
Speaker 1: it is you know, it is, if he is routed right,

1997
01:56:48,480 --> 01:56:51,560
Speaker 1: if it's a route, if everything is. I guess my

1998
01:56:51,720 --> 01:56:55,320
Speaker 1: fears are the super close elections that might actually need recounts.

1999
01:56:56,680 --> 01:57:01,520
Speaker 1: That's where I think this interference could get rationalized and

2000
01:57:01,680 --> 01:57:06,960
Speaker 1: justified in the minds of some in this administration. So

2001
01:57:07,720 --> 01:57:10,560
Speaker 1: I think the super close elections are ones that I

2002
01:57:11,040 --> 01:57:12,880
Speaker 1: would keep an eye on that I could see suddenly

2003
01:57:12,960 --> 01:57:18,360
Speaker 1: him feeling motivated to do this. I'm mostly bullish that

2004
01:57:18,440 --> 01:57:25,080
Speaker 1: there's enough Republicans that would just you know, not go

2005
01:57:25,120 --> 01:57:28,800
Speaker 1: down this road with him, and that Congress would be

2006
01:57:28,840 --> 01:57:29,440
Speaker 1: a bulwark.

2007
01:57:29,560 --> 01:57:29,760
Speaker 2: Right.

2008
01:57:30,440 --> 01:57:36,160
Speaker 1: Look, just you know, I if Democrats win both chambers,

2009
01:57:36,240 --> 01:57:38,960
Speaker 1: it means Trump's approval ratings likely in the mid to

2010
01:57:39,040 --> 01:57:45,480
Speaker 1: high thirties at best, So that unpopularity will matter, Okay

2011
01:57:45,640 --> 01:57:52,400
Speaker 1: ultimately in order to I think convince those that aren't

2012
01:57:53,040 --> 01:57:56,280
Speaker 1: totally devoted to the MAGA movement because it's the only

2013
01:57:56,320 --> 01:58:00,880
Speaker 1: way they had a political career, will suddenly are to realize, hey,

2014
01:58:00,880 --> 01:58:05,320
Speaker 1: there's a there's a The public is just done with Trump.

2015
01:58:06,840 --> 01:58:07,320
Speaker 2: And so.

2016
01:58:10,240 --> 01:58:14,640
Speaker 1: That's why I guess I think ultimately, even if he

2017
01:58:14,720 --> 01:58:18,280
Speaker 1: wants to do it, he's he's rained in from doing it.

2018
01:58:18,360 --> 01:58:19,840
Speaker 1: So I'm not going to sit here and rule out

2019
01:58:19,880 --> 01:58:23,000
Speaker 1: that he wouldn't. I don't considering his behavior. As I've

2020
01:58:23,120 --> 01:58:25,600
Speaker 1: said in a previous podcast, my great I think the

2021
01:58:25,640 --> 01:58:29,320
Speaker 1: greatest risk we have right now as a country is

2022
01:58:29,360 --> 01:58:33,120
Speaker 1: the fact that the president is feeling is feels like

2023
01:58:33,160 --> 01:58:38,400
Speaker 1: he's got the virus of Yolo, the Yolo virus, right,

2024
01:58:38,760 --> 01:58:43,520
Speaker 1: you only live ones virus. The ease with which he

2025
01:58:43,640 --> 01:58:48,360
Speaker 1: bombed Iron without consequences, He got Maduro without what he

2026
01:58:48,440 --> 01:58:53,560
Speaker 1: believes are consequences. You know, sometimes these consequences are delayed, right,

2027
01:58:53,680 --> 01:58:56,560
Speaker 1: So I don't want to say we haven't we've escaped

2028
01:58:56,600 --> 01:59:00,120
Speaker 1: consequences out of Venezuela yet, but in his mind, and

2029
01:59:00,160 --> 01:59:04,360
Speaker 1: it went easier than all the you know, maybe maybe

2030
01:59:04,400 --> 01:59:08,600
Speaker 1: those that were preaching caution around him.

2031
01:59:08,960 --> 01:59:10,760
Speaker 2: You couple that with his.

2032
01:59:12,680 --> 01:59:14,680
Speaker 1: You know, he's been he talks a lot about his

2033
01:59:14,720 --> 01:59:16,800
Speaker 1: demise now, right, He's been talking about m I going

2034
01:59:16,840 --> 01:59:20,040
Speaker 1: to get into heaven, all this stuff. It's frankly one

2035
01:59:20,040 --> 01:59:22,560
Speaker 1: of the pieces of circumstantial evidence that's gotten a lot

2036
01:59:22,560 --> 01:59:27,080
Speaker 1: of us wondering, huh, is this have something to do

2037
01:59:27,160 --> 01:59:30,280
Speaker 1: with you having to do three annual visits to three

2038
01:59:30,280 --> 01:59:33,320
Speaker 1: annual physicals in the calendar You're twenty twenty five at

2039
01:59:33,320 --> 01:59:37,600
Speaker 1: Walter Reed, right, Is there something you know? Is there

2040
01:59:37,680 --> 01:59:41,400
Speaker 1: something that they fear is coming? He has been sort

2041
01:59:41,440 --> 01:59:44,960
Speaker 1: of behaving as if the end is nearer than he

2042
01:59:45,000 --> 01:59:47,840
Speaker 1: wants it to be, which would then explain why his

2043
01:59:47,920 --> 01:59:51,120
Speaker 1: obsession with his personal legacy, right, hurrying up and getting

2044
01:59:51,120 --> 01:59:53,600
Speaker 1: his name on the Kennedy Center, trying to see if

2045
01:59:53,600 --> 01:59:56,440
Speaker 1: he can get his name on currency, you know, trying

2046
01:59:56,480 --> 02:00:00,720
Speaker 1: to literally physically. You know, there's a there are some

2047
02:00:00,760 --> 02:00:04,280
Speaker 1: who think that Trump's only obsession with Greenland is because

2048
02:00:04,280 --> 02:00:05,800
Speaker 1: it looks big on a map, and it'll make the

2049
02:00:05,880 --> 02:00:11,520
Speaker 1: United States look bigger than China and Russia. And as

2050
02:00:11,600 --> 02:00:14,000
Speaker 1: much as we want to laugh and snicker that that's

2051
02:00:14,040 --> 02:00:18,800
Speaker 1: the way he thinks, guess what, that's the way he thinks.

2052
02:00:20,040 --> 02:00:24,600
Speaker 1: So my concern is that state of mind of his,

2053
02:00:25,920 --> 02:00:29,600
Speaker 1: and that there are certainly fewer people that would stop him.

2054
02:00:30,240 --> 02:00:35,680
Speaker 1: But remember Bill Barr, his last Attorney General on the

2055
02:00:35,720 --> 02:00:39,680
Speaker 1: first term, second to Las since he resigned. Now, he

2056
02:00:39,800 --> 02:00:42,280
Speaker 1: resigned frankly because I think he didn't want to have

2057
02:00:42,400 --> 02:00:46,200
Speaker 1: to confront Trump when Trump wanted to use the Justice

2058
02:00:46,280 --> 02:00:49,800
Speaker 1: weaponis and Justice Department during the during the twenty twenty election.

2059
02:00:52,680 --> 02:00:54,720
Speaker 1: You know, he's the one out there that that questioned

2060
02:00:54,760 --> 02:00:59,120
Speaker 1: whether he should ever be near power again. Don't take

2061
02:00:59,120 --> 02:01:02,920
Speaker 1: my word for it. Let me get to Ron Sass

2062
02:01:03,000 --> 02:01:06,320
Speaker 1: from Phoenix, Arizona. He writes, Well, I won't shed tears

2063
02:01:06,320 --> 02:01:09,200
Speaker 1: over Maduro's extraction. This Venezuela oil grab will likely haunt

2064
02:01:09,200 --> 02:01:11,640
Speaker 1: Trump and the GOP well beyond his term. More concerning

2065
02:01:11,640 --> 02:01:14,080
Speaker 1: our threats to seize Greenland, attacking in NATO ally could

2066
02:01:14,160 --> 02:01:17,040
Speaker 1: unravel the alliance and in Bolden Russian in China if

2067
02:01:17,040 --> 02:01:19,680
Speaker 1: you're responded with a naval blockade like Kennedy's in Cuba,

2068
02:01:19,760 --> 02:01:22,320
Speaker 1: what our military really follow illegal orders to fire without

2069
02:01:22,360 --> 02:01:23,600
Speaker 1: congressional war authorization?

2070
02:01:23,880 --> 02:01:24,520
Speaker 2: Are there still.

2071
02:01:24,400 --> 02:01:27,000
Speaker 1: Adults in Washington who can reign in these impulses and

2072
02:01:27,080 --> 02:01:29,960
Speaker 1: remind Trump we already have long standing defense packs with

2073
02:01:30,080 --> 02:01:33,560
Speaker 1: Denmark and Greenland. Well, Ron, I think everybody has put

2074
02:01:33,560 --> 02:01:35,840
Speaker 1: their eggs in the Marco Rubio basket on this one.

2075
02:01:36,320 --> 02:01:40,919
Speaker 1: And speaking of Marco Rubio, there's a fascinating massive profile

2076
02:01:40,960 --> 02:01:42,480
Speaker 1: of him in the New Yorker. If you're a New

2077
02:01:42,560 --> 02:01:47,200
Speaker 1: Yorker subscriber, you'll and you get the physical print copy.

2078
02:01:47,240 --> 02:01:49,320
Speaker 1: I think when you get it, you're going to be like, oh,

2079
02:01:49,320 --> 02:01:51,240
Speaker 1: I got a book on Marco Rubio with a few

2080
02:01:51,240 --> 02:01:54,920
Speaker 1: cartoons surrounding it. It's a massive I think some forty

2081
02:01:54,960 --> 02:01:58,800
Speaker 1: thousand works. Mike Pesca did a whole deep dive on

2082
02:01:58,880 --> 02:02:03,280
Speaker 1: it and all this source and stuff, but it really

2083
02:02:03,360 --> 02:02:06,000
Speaker 1: it's a Dexter Filkins piece. And for those of you

2084
02:02:07,280 --> 02:02:09,880
Speaker 1: that didn't hear my interview with Dexeter Philkins six or

2085
02:02:09,920 --> 02:02:11,400
Speaker 1: eight weeks ago, I encourage you to do it. We

2086
02:02:11,480 --> 02:02:14,480
Speaker 1: really talked about the future of war a previous piece

2087
02:02:14,520 --> 02:02:16,839
Speaker 1: he wrote. But this was a deep dive on Rubio

2088
02:02:18,720 --> 02:02:24,320
Speaker 1: and it really does paint a portrait of essentially that

2089
02:02:24,400 --> 02:02:27,840
Speaker 1: he is the Trump whisperer right on foreign policy. Look,

2090
02:02:28,200 --> 02:02:30,879
Speaker 1: I've said this a million times. Without Marco Rubio, Venezuela

2091
02:02:30,920 --> 02:02:34,280
Speaker 1: doesn't happen. Marco Rubio, going back to the first Trump term,

2092
02:02:34,280 --> 02:02:35,840
Speaker 1: when he was trying to work his when he made

2093
02:02:35,880 --> 02:02:40,640
Speaker 1: the decision. You know, he was pretty anti Trump obviously

2094
02:02:40,760 --> 02:02:43,120
Speaker 1: during the sixteen campaign, and then he made the he

2095
02:02:43,200 --> 02:02:45,280
Speaker 1: decided to seek reelection, and he decided to stay in

2096
02:02:45,320 --> 02:02:51,840
Speaker 1: politics and evolve with Trump to be generous there. And

2097
02:02:51,880 --> 02:02:54,640
Speaker 1: he became Trump's Latin American whisper in that first term,

2098
02:02:54,960 --> 02:02:57,600
Speaker 1: and he made sure and then when during the during

2099
02:02:57,680 --> 02:03:00,800
Speaker 1: Trump's four years an exile there at mar A Lago,

2100
02:03:01,760 --> 02:03:04,879
Speaker 1: you know, Rubio was a frequent visitor and a frequent

2101
02:03:05,080 --> 02:03:09,120
Speaker 1: sidekick and somebody who would bring along the Bay of Pigs,

2102
02:03:09,200 --> 02:03:13,560
Speaker 1: veterans and the Cuban exile community, the Venezuelan exile community.

2103
02:03:15,280 --> 02:03:17,200
Speaker 1: You know, if you want to understand and remember there's

2104
02:03:17,200 --> 02:03:20,040
Speaker 1: that I point you to an interview I did with

2105
02:03:20,080 --> 02:03:23,160
Speaker 1: Billy Corbin about a documentary he did, Man of War,

2106
02:03:23,320 --> 02:03:28,800
Speaker 1: about sort of a failed attempt to overthrow Maduro that

2107
02:03:29,240 --> 02:03:35,040
Speaker 1: had its origins with former Trump bodyman Keith Schiller. Again,

2108
02:03:36,360 --> 02:03:40,400
Speaker 1: it would be hilarious if if it wasn't sadly true.

2109
02:03:41,320 --> 02:03:46,240
Speaker 1: The point is is that what was interesting about this

2110
02:03:46,280 --> 02:03:49,240
Speaker 1: piece in The New Yorker is how many unnamed European

2111
02:03:49,280 --> 02:03:53,680
Speaker 1: diplomats viewed Marco Rubio as sort of their lifeline when

2112
02:03:53,760 --> 02:03:56,800
Speaker 1: something goes really south with Trump, they go to Rubio

2113
02:03:56,880 --> 02:04:00,840
Speaker 1: and see how can they sort of fix this right?

2114
02:04:00,920 --> 02:04:06,040
Speaker 1: And look, without Marco Rubio, Trump would have already abandoned Ukraine.

2115
02:04:07,840 --> 02:04:15,600
Speaker 1: So if you're wondering, I think he's that adult. I

2116
02:04:15,680 --> 02:04:18,880
Speaker 1: think there are enough Republican senators who use Rubio as

2117
02:04:18,880 --> 02:04:22,520
Speaker 1: a conduit and frankly go to him to try to

2118
02:04:22,520 --> 02:04:29,080
Speaker 1: strengthen Rubio's backbone on this. So it may not be

2119
02:04:29,160 --> 02:04:31,040
Speaker 1: a guard you know. It's sort of like you go

2120
02:04:31,120 --> 02:04:33,280
Speaker 1: to war with the guardrails you have, not the guardrails

2121
02:04:33,280 --> 02:04:38,880
Speaker 1: you want to paraphrase a former a Defense secretary named

2122
02:04:38,880 --> 02:04:46,080
Speaker 1: Donald Rumsfeld. So I think that that's you know, I

2123
02:04:46,120 --> 02:04:49,120
Speaker 1: think that that's who's if you're looking for who would

2124
02:04:49,240 --> 02:04:51,160
Speaker 1: prevent what you're describing.

2125
02:04:51,200 --> 02:04:51,320
Speaker 3: Now.

2126
02:04:51,320 --> 02:04:53,720
Speaker 1: I don't think we're going that far. I don't think

2127
02:04:53,760 --> 02:04:56,880
Speaker 1: this is going to get to military. I think I

2128
02:04:56,920 --> 02:05:03,400
Speaker 1: do fear, though, that Trump may really use US financial

2129
02:05:03,480 --> 02:05:07,920
Speaker 1: contributions to NATO in an attempt to leverage this. Whether

2130
02:05:07,920 --> 02:05:10,560
Speaker 1: it works or not, I don't want to presume it

2131
02:05:10,560 --> 02:05:14,320
Speaker 1: won't work, but I'm skeptical that it will.

2132
02:05:14,400 --> 02:05:14,720
Speaker 2: All right.

2133
02:05:14,720 --> 02:05:17,880
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Lucas and he asks why do

2134
02:05:17,920 --> 02:05:20,680
Speaker 1: Americans broadly find the far left more repugnant than the

2135
02:05:20,680 --> 02:05:22,840
Speaker 1: far right. I say this because I don't ever hear

2136
02:05:22,960 --> 02:05:25,760
Speaker 1: about Republicans needing to moderate in order to grow their base,

2137
02:05:26,200 --> 02:05:29,560
Speaker 1: yet this repeatedly seems to be a theme for Democrats. Well,

2138
02:05:29,600 --> 02:05:32,560
Speaker 1: part of it is numbers, right, you know, those self

2139
02:05:32,560 --> 02:05:35,480
Speaker 1: described conservatives still out numbers self described liberals. So I

2140
02:05:35,560 --> 02:05:37,640
Speaker 1: think part of it is a base is sort of

2141
02:05:37,720 --> 02:05:39,120
Speaker 1: just one size.

2142
02:05:39,640 --> 02:05:39,800
Speaker 2: You know.

2143
02:05:39,840 --> 02:05:43,440
Speaker 1: The Republicans start with a larger base, so they don't

2144
02:05:43,520 --> 02:05:47,320
Speaker 1: need as many swing voters as Democrats do. So it's

2145
02:05:47,440 --> 02:05:49,800
Speaker 1: just a simple numbers game. There are more self described

2146
02:05:49,800 --> 02:05:53,320
Speaker 1: conservatives than self described liberals. Now is the self described

2147
02:05:53,320 --> 02:05:54,720
Speaker 1: liberal numbered growing?

2148
02:05:54,840 --> 02:05:56,880
Speaker 2: Yes? It is? Is the gap.

2149
02:05:56,720 --> 02:05:59,320
Speaker 1: Smaller today than it was in a long time. Yes,

2150
02:05:59,360 --> 02:06:04,600
Speaker 1: it is, but the fact is that Democrats need a

2151
02:06:04,720 --> 02:06:09,840
Speaker 1: larger share of independent voters to get a majority than

2152
02:06:09,920 --> 02:06:16,200
Speaker 1: Republicans do at the moment. By the way, it wasn't

2153
02:06:16,240 --> 02:06:18,560
Speaker 1: that long ago that Republicans were told they needed to

2154
02:06:18,600 --> 02:06:21,360
Speaker 1: moderate if they wanted to win national elections. Again, go

2155
02:06:21,440 --> 02:06:25,520
Speaker 1: back to the RNC twenty thirteen autopsy, which said, hey,

2156
02:06:25,560 --> 02:06:29,160
Speaker 1: it needed to pull back on its rhetoric on immigration.

2157
02:06:29,320 --> 02:06:31,920
Speaker 1: Now it turns out Trump had had an entirely different

2158
02:06:31,960 --> 02:06:35,160
Speaker 1: theory of the case on how to win over Latino voters,

2159
02:06:35,600 --> 02:06:40,839
Speaker 1: but at the time that was the prevailing conventional wisdom.

2160
02:06:40,920 --> 02:06:44,160
Speaker 1: So it really this is very recency biased. It's the

2161
02:06:44,200 --> 02:06:46,840
Speaker 1: moment we're living in now. When it looked like it

2162
02:06:46,880 --> 02:06:49,600
Speaker 1: was the Democrats that had the larger base to start

2163
02:06:49,640 --> 02:06:52,840
Speaker 1: from and that they needed a smaller shrif swing voters,

2164
02:06:53,440 --> 02:06:59,080
Speaker 1: it was Republicans that were being urged to moderate, which

2165
02:06:59,120 --> 02:07:05,839
Speaker 1: is the entire thirteen twenty fourteen conversation after the Romney defeat.

2166
02:07:05,920 --> 02:07:10,240
Speaker 1: So when he was a severe conservative right and all

2167
02:07:10,240 --> 02:07:12,840
Speaker 1: of those things. So I would remind you that this

2168
02:07:12,880 --> 02:07:17,440
Speaker 1: stuff's a bit cyclical one, but there it's right now

2169
02:07:17,480 --> 02:07:21,880
Speaker 1: it's a simple numbers issue, and yes, the Republican base

2170
02:07:22,040 --> 02:07:27,120
Speaker 1: is part of it. You know, I've always thought some

2171
02:07:27,160 --> 02:07:28,080
Speaker 1: of this is also.

2172
02:07:30,400 --> 02:07:34,040
Speaker 2: Gender related.

2173
02:07:34,360 --> 02:07:39,040
Speaker 1: If Democrats could cut into the Republican advantage among men,

2174
02:07:40,000 --> 02:07:43,280
Speaker 1: I think they would also generally. So it's sort of like,

2175
02:07:43,320 --> 02:07:45,840
Speaker 1: how do you and this gets at the whole manisphere

2176
02:07:45,840 --> 02:07:50,720
Speaker 1: debate and all this or that, but I think that's the.

2177
02:07:52,440 --> 02:07:52,640
Speaker 2: Look.

2178
02:07:52,680 --> 02:07:57,240
Speaker 1: I think the opening here to picking off more sort

2179
02:07:57,280 --> 02:08:03,320
Speaker 1: of is to is to sort of rebrand liberalism as

2180
02:08:03,400 --> 02:08:08,600
Speaker 1: pro constitution as sort of and I think the Conservatives

2181
02:08:08,640 --> 02:08:12,160
Speaker 1: did a better job of branding themselves constitutionalists and that

2182
02:08:12,400 --> 02:08:15,080
Speaker 1: they were making the case that it was the liberals

2183
02:08:15,080 --> 02:08:18,760
Speaker 1: that we're trying to overread the Constitution. Well, now I

2184
02:08:18,760 --> 02:08:20,800
Speaker 1: think that's in reverse. And I think a lot of

2185
02:08:20,840 --> 02:08:23,800
Speaker 1: people feel as if their privacy and all this stuff.

2186
02:08:23,840 --> 02:08:28,960
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of just basic protection of rights,

2187
02:08:29,080 --> 02:08:30,480
Speaker 1: not even expansion of rights.

2188
02:08:30,520 --> 02:08:30,640
Speaker 3: Right.

2189
02:08:30,680 --> 02:08:35,080
Speaker 1: I think, you know, arguably the divide between just on

2190
02:08:35,120 --> 02:08:38,760
Speaker 1: the rights front, right conservatives generally were trying to protect

2191
02:08:38,840 --> 02:08:42,320
Speaker 1: rights that they believed already existed, and liberals were fighting

2192
02:08:42,360 --> 02:08:47,080
Speaker 1: to expand rights for Americans that we're not getting what

2193
02:08:47,120 --> 02:08:51,560
Speaker 1: they deserve. I think now we have a situation where

2194
02:08:51,600 --> 02:08:55,080
Speaker 1: conservatives are no longer in the protecting rights category. Trump

2195
02:08:55,720 --> 02:08:57,880
Speaker 1: has sort of driven them in a different direction. He's

2196
02:08:57,920 --> 02:09:03,120
Speaker 1: trying to redefine what right, what the interpretation of the

2197
02:09:03,120 --> 02:09:05,600
Speaker 1: Constitution in ways that I think a majority of the

2198
02:09:05,600 --> 02:09:07,280
Speaker 1: public isn't going to like. So I do think there's

2199
02:09:07,280 --> 02:09:14,080
Speaker 1: an opportunity to redefine liberalism as being more protecting of

2200
02:09:14,200 --> 02:09:20,280
Speaker 1: individual rights and getting finding a way into that, into

2201
02:09:20,720 --> 02:09:27,400
Speaker 1: that messaging I think could help rebrand liberalism right now.

2202
02:09:27,440 --> 02:09:30,200
Speaker 1: I think it is. It is, it's too you know,

2203
02:09:31,480 --> 02:09:36,400
Speaker 1: it's not seen as strong. Maybe unfair to say that,

2204
02:09:36,520 --> 02:09:38,560
Speaker 1: but I think that that's that's that's one of the

2205
02:09:38,600 --> 02:09:42,920
Speaker 1: key critiques there. Let's see here last question and then

2206
02:09:42,920 --> 02:09:46,360
Speaker 1: I've got a I've got a few sports rants to

2207
02:09:46,400 --> 02:09:49,400
Speaker 1: share with you. Last question comes from Nick Smith of Denver, Colorado,

2208
02:09:49,400 --> 02:09:51,360
Speaker 1: and he said, should we be concerned that the markets

2209
02:09:51,360 --> 02:09:55,560
Speaker 1: shrugged off further loss of fed independence, especially under presidency

2210
02:09:55,560 --> 02:09:58,000
Speaker 1: that treats the stock market as a scoreboard. I fear

2211
02:09:58,000 --> 02:10:01,520
Speaker 1: the lack of reaction only emboldens the administ as institutional

2212
02:10:01,560 --> 02:10:03,560
Speaker 1: norms a road on a lighter note, if you had

2213
02:10:03,560 --> 02:10:06,839
Speaker 1: to had to staff a presidential cabinet with former NFL players,

2214
02:10:06,880 --> 02:10:08,840
Speaker 1: Who would you choose and why? I'm thinking Joe Thomas

2215
02:10:08,920 --> 02:10:11,880
Speaker 1: for act Secretary, Pat Tillman for Defense. Yeah. The problem

2216
02:10:11,920 --> 02:10:15,200
Speaker 1: with Pat Dillman is you're not there. But it's a

2217
02:10:15,240 --> 02:10:20,560
Speaker 1: fun exercise on that. You know, growing up a Packer fan,

2218
02:10:20,600 --> 02:10:22,880
Speaker 1: I think I wanted Ray Nichke at defense, right. You know,

2219
02:10:23,040 --> 02:10:25,800
Speaker 1: if he was our defense secretary, would anybody attack us?

2220
02:10:25,880 --> 02:10:27,200
Speaker 1: Right with that menacing face?

2221
02:10:27,440 --> 02:10:27,680
Speaker 2: You know?

2222
02:10:30,160 --> 02:10:34,080
Speaker 1: But let me answer the first question there. I I

2223
02:10:34,120 --> 02:10:39,880
Speaker 1: actually think the market reaction and Scott Besson's reaction and

2224
02:10:40,040 --> 02:10:44,600
Speaker 1: Senate Republicans reaction has totally gotten them to back off.

2225
02:10:44,720 --> 02:10:49,880
Speaker 1: And in fact, Janine Piro suddenly right, Well, I didn't.

2226
02:10:49,960 --> 02:10:53,240
Speaker 1: I just was it's just fact finding, and it's just this.

2227
02:10:53,480 --> 02:10:57,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of think that they did walk back,

2228
02:10:57,760 --> 02:11:00,240
Speaker 1: So I'm I.

2229
02:11:00,160 --> 02:11:01,200
Speaker 2: Don't see it as a shrug.

2230
02:11:02,160 --> 02:11:05,360
Speaker 1: I see as that there's some guardrails quickly were erected,

2231
02:11:05,960 --> 02:11:12,120
Speaker 1: and it quickly got Trump to back off. Because notice,

2232
02:11:12,320 --> 02:11:14,200
Speaker 1: and I don't know when you sent in this question,

2233
02:11:15,000 --> 02:11:17,880
Speaker 1: you know, but I would perhaps between then and now

2234
02:11:18,400 --> 02:11:22,520
Speaker 1: you might see what I'm talking about here. And I

2235
02:11:22,560 --> 02:11:26,600
Speaker 1: think that when Scott bessnt very loudly said that he

2236
02:11:26,720 --> 02:11:29,400
Speaker 1: told Trump this was a bad idea. I think that

2237
02:11:29,480 --> 02:11:31,520
Speaker 1: was an attempt to speak to the bond markets to

2238
02:11:31,600 --> 02:11:36,760
Speaker 1: keep them calm, that said, you know, and those that

2239
02:11:36,800 --> 02:11:38,800
Speaker 1: have been whispering in his ears, noting that hey, this

2240
02:11:38,880 --> 02:11:44,800
Speaker 1: is weakening the dollar, this is doing this. So I

2241
02:11:44,880 --> 02:11:49,320
Speaker 1: think the most important development is the fact that j

2242
02:11:49,520 --> 02:11:54,480
Speaker 1: Powell was willing to be so public. To me, that's

2243
02:11:54,560 --> 02:11:59,000
Speaker 1: another crack in sort of Trump's script on power, right

2244
02:11:59,480 --> 02:12:03,280
Speaker 1: there isn't this you know it cam Me couldn't felt

2245
02:12:03,320 --> 02:12:05,520
Speaker 1: like he couldn't do it for a variety of reasons.

2246
02:12:05,600 --> 02:12:09,400
Speaker 1: Leticia James has you know, been cautious and how much

2247
02:12:09,400 --> 02:12:12,400
Speaker 1: he's publicly pushed back the fact that Jay Powell felt

2248
02:12:12,400 --> 02:12:14,840
Speaker 1: so comfortable doing that. He didn't do it because he

2249
02:12:14,880 --> 02:12:19,840
Speaker 1: didn't have support within the within the finance community. That's

2250
02:12:19,880 --> 02:12:24,880
Speaker 1: just something that's thinking about there. But sort of other

2251
02:12:25,040 --> 02:12:27,880
Speaker 1: NFL players here, man, you've you've You've got me thinking

2252
02:12:29,360 --> 02:12:34,880
Speaker 1: of other former NFL players, you know, I think I

2253
02:12:34,920 --> 02:12:37,840
Speaker 1: would want I think you definitely have to have Bill

2254
02:12:37,880 --> 02:12:41,200
Speaker 1: Belichick and Tom Brady at the c I a right spygate,

2255
02:12:42,720 --> 02:12:44,840
Speaker 1: So that's a that's a natural you want them in

2256
02:12:44,880 --> 02:12:46,400
Speaker 1: the counterintelligence space.

2257
02:12:46,400 --> 02:12:49,920
Speaker 2: They were pretty good at it on that front. I

2258
02:12:49,960 --> 02:12:50,480
Speaker 2: can't wait.

2259
02:12:51,040 --> 02:12:52,120
Speaker 1: You know, it's one of those that I wish I

2260
02:12:52,160 --> 02:12:54,320
Speaker 1: had a laugh track, right because I know that's a

2261
02:12:54,320 --> 02:12:56,480
Speaker 1: good line. I know that's gonna land okay with some

2262
02:12:56,520 --> 02:13:01,400
Speaker 1: people now. Hating on the Patriots is fun right on

2263
02:13:01,400 --> 02:13:01,920
Speaker 1: that front.

2264
02:13:03,160 --> 02:13:04,240
Speaker 2: Let me think of what other.

2265
02:13:06,880 --> 02:13:08,520
Speaker 1: What other places I would go.

2266
02:13:10,000 --> 02:13:13,960
Speaker 2: With that. I think i'd put Kirk Cousins as Secretary

2267
02:13:13,960 --> 02:13:15,160
Speaker 2: of Treasury. Why am I saying that?

2268
02:13:15,280 --> 02:13:18,120
Speaker 1: Because this dude figured out how to make money at

2269
02:13:18,160 --> 02:13:21,880
Speaker 1: all these stocks. He's a good quarterback but got paid

2270
02:13:21,920 --> 02:13:25,360
Speaker 1: like a great quarterback. So give me that guy for

2271
02:13:25,440 --> 02:13:31,120
Speaker 1: fine for treasury. Let's see who would be our best

2272
02:13:31,200 --> 02:13:42,000
Speaker 1: former football player as diplomat? Hmm, maybe Dion Sanders. I

2273
02:13:42,040 --> 02:13:45,360
Speaker 1: know he's loud, right, I know he's painting bright colors

2274
02:13:45,400 --> 02:13:48,640
Speaker 1: if you will. But he is a way of getting

2275
02:13:48,640 --> 02:13:53,360
Speaker 1: along with everybody, and ultimately you want that with diplomacy.

2276
02:13:53,400 --> 02:14:00,880
Speaker 1: So maybe I'll put Dion there. You gotta find a

2277
02:14:00,880 --> 02:14:06,640
Speaker 1: place for the Rock. I think that's a given. You know.

2278
02:14:06,680 --> 02:14:08,680
Speaker 1: I know he basically only had a cup of coffee

2279
02:14:08,720 --> 02:14:12,320
Speaker 1: in the NFL, but I think he'd qualify on that front.

2280
02:14:12,320 --> 02:14:13,840
Speaker 1: So you got to find a place for the rock.

2281
02:14:16,640 --> 02:14:19,160
Speaker 1: All right, I've I'm I'm now I feel like i'm

2282
02:14:19,200 --> 02:14:21,480
Speaker 1: I'm babbling here and I've spitball too much.

2283
02:14:21,480 --> 02:14:22,160
Speaker 2: So I will.

2284
02:14:23,840 --> 02:14:25,400
Speaker 1: I will, I will put a pin in this. But

2285
02:14:26,120 --> 02:14:28,720
Speaker 1: if I think of some more ideas, Nick, I will,

2286
02:14:29,480 --> 02:14:33,000
Speaker 1: I will shoot it to you. Anyway, appreciate the questions.

2287
02:14:33,040 --> 02:14:45,480
Speaker 1: Remember ask Chuck at the Chuck podcast dot com.

2288
02:14:45,600 --> 02:14:47,520
Speaker 2: I got a few sports rants and when I get

2289
02:14:47,560 --> 02:14:48,080
Speaker 2: off my chest.

2290
02:14:48,120 --> 02:14:49,840
Speaker 1: First of all, this will be my last sort of

2291
02:14:49,840 --> 02:14:54,360
Speaker 1: full podcast before I hopefully witness the University of Miami's

2292
02:14:55,120 --> 02:14:58,360
Speaker 1: uh six national title, or at least six national title

2293
02:14:58,400 --> 02:15:02,080
Speaker 1: that everybody recognize. I know, there's all sorts of weird

2294
02:15:02,160 --> 02:15:04,880
Speaker 1: national titles that used to be handed out. The New

2295
02:15:04,960 --> 02:15:07,120
Speaker 1: York Times computer used to hand out a national title.

2296
02:15:07,160 --> 02:15:10,320
Speaker 1: I think Miami's won two or three extra those over

2297
02:15:10,360 --> 02:15:13,200
Speaker 1: the years and years that they didn't win it other places.

2298
02:15:14,480 --> 02:15:17,240
Speaker 1: I remember reading Ole miss has claimed three national titles,

2299
02:15:17,240 --> 02:15:18,960
Speaker 1: but only one was one of those that was sort

2300
02:15:19,000 --> 02:15:22,520
Speaker 1: of considered a consensus national title. But that is sort

2301
02:15:22,560 --> 02:15:26,400
Speaker 1: of the craziness and the fun of college football. But

2302
02:15:26,560 --> 02:15:32,000
Speaker 1: just sort of a quick note, my Miami wins the

2303
02:15:32,040 --> 02:15:35,080
Speaker 1: game if they win the game. My guess is they

2304
02:15:35,080 --> 02:15:38,560
Speaker 1: don't score more than twenty four points, that it is

2305
02:15:38,600 --> 02:15:40,840
Speaker 1: a for Miami to win the game. They turn it

2306
02:15:40,880 --> 02:15:43,440
Speaker 1: into a rock fight, and I think Miami can win

2307
02:15:43,480 --> 02:15:45,960
Speaker 1: a rock fight. I also think Indiana can win a

2308
02:15:46,040 --> 02:15:50,640
Speaker 1: rock fight. But ultimately I think the winning formula is

2309
02:15:50,760 --> 02:15:55,960
Speaker 1: rock fight. Indiana wins the game if they get to

2310
02:15:56,000 --> 02:15:58,480
Speaker 1: a quick they get to an early lead and Miami

2311
02:15:59,080 --> 02:15:59,960
Speaker 1: has to play catch up.

2312
02:16:02,360 --> 02:16:02,840
Speaker 2: I am.

2313
02:16:03,720 --> 02:16:08,320
Speaker 1: I'm also curious what happens to Mendoza if he has

2314
02:16:08,360 --> 02:16:12,320
Speaker 1: to play catchup if Miami can get an early lead.

2315
02:16:13,400 --> 02:16:17,120
Speaker 1: So ultimately, I think the first quarter it's one of

2316
02:16:17,120 --> 02:16:19,600
Speaker 1: those I know this is I think the first quarter

2317
02:16:19,720 --> 02:16:22,400
Speaker 1: is going to be very decisive in this game in

2318
02:16:23,040 --> 02:16:26,320
Speaker 1: who you know, who gets to set the tone of

2319
02:16:26,360 --> 02:16:30,360
Speaker 1: the of the game, right if it's slow and plotting.

2320
02:16:30,400 --> 02:16:33,360
Speaker 1: This is one of those cases where do I want,

2321
02:16:33,480 --> 02:16:35,760
Speaker 1: you know, I think you always want to have the

2322
02:16:35,760 --> 02:16:38,119
Speaker 1: ball in the second half. But if Miami did get

2323
02:16:38,120 --> 02:16:43,720
Speaker 1: the ball first, I wouldn't mind because I think if

2324
02:16:43,720 --> 02:16:47,000
Speaker 1: they could methodically, even if they only get three, you

2325
02:16:47,040 --> 02:16:50,120
Speaker 1: eat up eight to ten minutes and get points. You

2326
02:16:50,320 --> 02:16:52,560
Speaker 1: just sort of shorten the game and the shorter the

2327
02:16:52,560 --> 02:16:57,640
Speaker 1: game is I think advantage advantage Miami. But another big

2328
02:16:57,680 --> 02:16:59,120
Speaker 1: part of this is how well is it? If what

2329
02:16:59,640 --> 02:17:03,200
Speaker 1: well is a strong word, what kind of officiating does

2330
02:17:03,240 --> 02:17:07,560
Speaker 1: this game have? Those Big ten officials were kind of

2331
02:17:07,560 --> 02:17:12,480
Speaker 1: flag happy. Those SEC officials, my word, we had SEC

2332
02:17:12,560 --> 02:17:15,040
Speaker 1: officials for that Ohio State game. Boy, they didn't want

2333
02:17:15,080 --> 02:17:19,280
Speaker 1: to they they led, They did the old let them play.

2334
02:17:19,360 --> 02:17:22,119
Speaker 1: If these two teams are allowed to play, they quote

2335
02:17:22,200 --> 02:17:26,840
Speaker 1: let them play, officials. That's also advantage Miami on this front.

2336
02:17:27,160 --> 02:17:30,440
Speaker 2: And so you know, we'll see.

2337
02:17:30,600 --> 02:17:35,519
Speaker 1: I am I'm clearly hopeful. I think Miami's being way

2338
02:17:35,720 --> 02:17:38,520
Speaker 1: underrated here on this front.

2339
02:17:38,760 --> 02:17:39,320
Speaker 2: I get it.

2340
02:17:39,480 --> 02:17:43,560
Speaker 1: Indiana's story is the Indiana story. I saw a fun

2341
02:17:43,600 --> 02:17:47,880
Speaker 1: little comparison that the best corollary to Indiana twenty twenty

2342
02:17:47,879 --> 02:17:51,920
Speaker 1: five is actually Miami nineteen eighty three. Right, if Miami

2343
02:17:51,920 --> 02:17:55,040
Speaker 1: doesn't win that first national title against Nebraska, are they

2344
02:17:55,040 --> 02:17:58,200
Speaker 1: a flash in the pan that never goes anywhere again

2345
02:17:58,959 --> 02:18:02,280
Speaker 1: or an And you know, because what people forget about

2346
02:18:02,280 --> 02:18:04,520
Speaker 1: the eighty three Miami team is the eighty three Miami

2347
02:18:04,560 --> 02:18:08,640
Speaker 1: team had maybe two pros. Okay, it had some NFL talent,

2348
02:18:08,959 --> 02:18:11,240
Speaker 1: but it was not like the teams in eighty seven,

2349
02:18:11,320 --> 02:18:15,440
Speaker 1: eighty nine, ninety one that just dominated recruiting in South Florida.

2350
02:18:16,600 --> 02:18:22,200
Speaker 1: And if Indiana wins right, they suddenly are get to

2351
02:18:22,480 --> 02:18:25,200
Speaker 1: flex like Ohio State and Michigan and they become a

2352
02:18:25,240 --> 02:18:28,600
Speaker 1: destination program. Miami winning in eighty three made them a

2353
02:18:28,640 --> 02:18:33,200
Speaker 1: destination program. This is why I think a Miami victory here,

2354
02:18:33,840 --> 02:18:38,160
Speaker 1: you know, pays huge dividends because it basically brings the

2355
02:18:38,240 --> 02:18:41,600
Speaker 1: South Florida high school football community sort of back into

2356
02:18:41,640 --> 02:18:47,320
Speaker 1: focus for the University of Miami. But I do think,

2357
02:18:47,400 --> 02:18:49,039
Speaker 1: you know, I do think there's something to be said

2358
02:18:49,040 --> 02:18:53,040
Speaker 1: that Indiana twenty twenty five Miami nineteen eighty three, that

2359
02:18:53,560 --> 02:18:57,000
Speaker 1: it's a fascinating book ind there, but for Miami to

2360
02:18:57,080 --> 02:18:59,920
Speaker 1: be back into sort of the elite.

2361
02:18:59,640 --> 02:19:00,640
Speaker 2: Of college football.

2362
02:19:02,560 --> 02:19:05,440
Speaker 1: I do like the other part of this that they

2363
02:19:05,879 --> 02:19:10,040
Speaker 1: were unlike that Miami nineteen eighty three team. Indiana is

2364
02:19:10,080 --> 02:19:13,840
Speaker 1: not the underdog anymore. Indiana is the heavy favorite. Miami's

2365
02:19:13,840 --> 02:19:16,840
Speaker 1: the one that's the underdog. So just realize and if

2366
02:19:16,840 --> 02:19:20,840
Speaker 1: you're playing point spread games, the team with more NFL

2367
02:19:20,920 --> 02:19:24,200
Speaker 1: talent and the team playing at home is getting eight

2368
02:19:24,240 --> 02:19:27,760
Speaker 1: and a half points and a point I made with

2369
02:19:27,800 --> 02:19:30,360
Speaker 1: my friend Tony Corneiser on his show when I was

2370
02:19:30,400 --> 02:19:34,720
Speaker 1: picking games, Miami hasn't lost by more than seven but

2371
02:19:34,800 --> 02:19:40,640
Speaker 1: more than eight points in three years. Mario crystabal does

2372
02:19:40,680 --> 02:19:44,880
Speaker 1: not Mario crystabal. Teams just don't play the type of

2373
02:19:44,959 --> 02:19:50,600
Speaker 1: game to get blown out. If it happens, God bless them.

2374
02:19:50,600 --> 02:19:54,360
Speaker 1: Good for you, Indiana. But that's the part of this

2375
02:19:54,480 --> 02:19:57,320
Speaker 1: that I'm extraordinarily skeptical of. I obviously think we're going

2376
02:19:57,400 --> 02:19:59,760
Speaker 1: to win this game. You know, it's not just that

2377
02:19:59,800 --> 02:20:01,360
Speaker 1: I want to win this game. I really think they're

2378
02:20:01,360 --> 02:20:03,600
Speaker 1: going to win this game. I think they're the better team.

2379
02:20:04,160 --> 02:20:06,840
Speaker 1: But we're going to find out on the field. But

2380
02:20:06,959 --> 02:20:09,600
Speaker 1: I certainly believe they're a team that's not going to

2381
02:20:09,600 --> 02:20:16,560
Speaker 1: get blown out. There's a few other thing, two quick

2382
02:20:16,640 --> 02:20:18,840
Speaker 1: rants that I want to get off my chest. One

2383
02:20:20,520 --> 02:20:24,560
Speaker 1: so over the holidays, I may I spend a little

2384
02:20:24,560 --> 02:20:28,000
Speaker 1: bit of time in a casino. And you know, we

2385
02:20:28,080 --> 02:20:31,440
Speaker 1: have this income inequality problem all over the map, right

2386
02:20:31,480 --> 02:20:34,240
Speaker 1: and you see it show up in ways sometimes that

2387
02:20:34,320 --> 02:20:37,959
Speaker 1: are not obvious. But one of the pet peeves. You

2388
02:20:37,959 --> 02:20:40,320
Speaker 1: know this has been happening. You know it's been happening

2389
02:20:40,360 --> 02:20:42,760
Speaker 1: in Vegas for a while I like to play blackjack.

2390
02:20:44,120 --> 02:20:46,600
Speaker 1: And you know, one of the things you really have

2391
02:20:46,640 --> 02:20:49,280
Speaker 1: to be careful of with blackjack right there is number

2392
02:20:49,280 --> 02:20:52,920
Speaker 1: one is those Rodo dealer machines that look like Rollodex

2393
02:20:53,000 --> 02:20:54,720
Speaker 1: is back in the day that just spit out cards.

2394
02:20:55,040 --> 02:20:58,119
Speaker 1: There's never even you know, I'll take an automatic shuffler

2395
02:20:58,360 --> 02:21:01,200
Speaker 1: as long as we're using a shoe right and that

2396
02:21:01,320 --> 02:21:03,800
Speaker 1: you see the cards go in, you know, you know,

2397
02:21:03,879 --> 02:21:06,760
Speaker 1: et cetera. But the ones that just automatic, right I

2398
02:21:06,959 --> 02:21:10,360
Speaker 1: you know that that is designed to help the house,

2399
02:21:10,840 --> 02:21:13,560
Speaker 1: not help the player. And then you've had the chipping

2400
02:21:13,600 --> 02:21:16,439
Speaker 1: away of how much money you win on a blackjack

2401
02:21:17,879 --> 02:21:20,560
Speaker 1: And in all of these places that I've been, it

2402
02:21:20,560 --> 02:21:23,240
Speaker 1: doesn't matter whether you're in Las Vegas, the Bahamas, a

2403
02:21:23,320 --> 02:21:28,080
Speaker 1: casino in Miami, at casino in Oklahoma that in order

2404
02:21:28,120 --> 02:21:33,120
Speaker 1: to chip away at the and help the house, that

2405
02:21:33,200 --> 02:21:37,600
Speaker 1: they now pay six to five for blackjack rather than

2406
02:21:37,720 --> 02:21:40,120
Speaker 1: three to two. So to give you an example of

2407
02:21:40,160 --> 02:21:42,080
Speaker 1: what that is is if you play a ten dollars

2408
02:21:42,600 --> 02:21:45,160
Speaker 1: blackjack table, you get blackjack and you're getting paid six

2409
02:21:45,200 --> 02:21:47,680
Speaker 1: to five, you get twelve dollars. But if you get

2410
02:21:47,720 --> 02:21:50,440
Speaker 1: blackjack at a table that plays pays three to two, you.

2411
02:21:50,360 --> 02:21:51,360
Speaker 2: Get fifteen dollars.

2412
02:21:52,200 --> 02:21:56,160
Speaker 1: That adds up, and it actually changes the overall odds.

2413
02:21:56,240 --> 02:21:56,400
Speaker 2: Right.

2414
02:21:56,440 --> 02:22:00,360
Speaker 1: The reason blackjack ultimately is one of the one of

2415
02:22:00,400 --> 02:22:02,640
Speaker 1: the table games in theory that you have the best

2416
02:22:02,680 --> 02:22:04,800
Speaker 1: odds is because you know, if you play for a

2417
02:22:04,840 --> 02:22:07,080
Speaker 1: long enough time, you're going to get a certain amount

2418
02:22:07,080 --> 02:22:10,959
Speaker 1: of blackjacks. And you know that's why playing consistently is

2419
02:22:11,000 --> 02:22:14,920
Speaker 1: the way to at least give yourself the best chance

2420
02:22:14,959 --> 02:22:18,440
Speaker 1: to beat the house at any given time. But here's

2421
02:22:18,440 --> 02:22:24,320
Speaker 1: where this income inequality aspect comes into this. If you

2422
02:22:24,440 --> 02:22:27,720
Speaker 1: want better odds, if you want the old odds for blackjack,

2423
02:22:28,080 --> 02:22:30,480
Speaker 1: you can get them at all of these casinos. If

2424
02:22:30,520 --> 02:22:34,480
Speaker 1: you're willing to bet, to go to higher tables one

2425
02:22:34,560 --> 02:22:38,440
Speaker 1: hundred dollars tables two hundred dollars a hand tables, Well,

2426
02:22:38,800 --> 02:22:41,360
Speaker 1: not a lot of people want to bet, want to

2427
02:22:41,400 --> 02:22:45,560
Speaker 1: play blackjack at one hundred dollars a hand, but they

2428
02:22:45,680 --> 02:22:48,880
Speaker 1: literally are giving those that can afford to bet one

2429
02:22:48,920 --> 02:22:52,160
Speaker 1: hundred dollars or add better odds. And if you want

2430
02:22:52,160 --> 02:22:54,760
Speaker 1: to only play you can only afford a ten to

2431
02:22:54,800 --> 02:22:58,320
Speaker 1: fifteen dollars, you get lesser odds. So you know, it's

2432
02:22:58,360 --> 02:23:02,320
Speaker 1: a small thing, but it sort of is a part.

2433
02:23:02,320 --> 02:23:05,640
Speaker 1: It's it's this, you know, it's like all these different

2434
02:23:05,640 --> 02:23:09,160
Speaker 1: ways where we are creating two sets of rules. If

2435
02:23:09,200 --> 02:23:12,280
Speaker 1: you have money, you get better odds, and if you

2436
02:23:12,280 --> 02:23:15,120
Speaker 1: don't have money, you get worse odds. If that's not

2437
02:23:15,200 --> 02:23:19,280
Speaker 1: a metaphor for right now life in America, I don't

2438
02:23:19,280 --> 02:23:22,480
Speaker 1: know what else is, right. I mean again, I know

2439
02:23:22,840 --> 02:23:28,320
Speaker 1: it's I know it's quote unquote just about blackjack, but

2440
02:23:28,440 --> 02:23:33,400
Speaker 1: it really does is an example of you know, if

2441
02:23:33,440 --> 02:23:36,720
Speaker 1: you have money, you get treated better, and if you don't,

2442
02:23:36,760 --> 02:23:40,000
Speaker 1: you don't. That's not what America was supposed to be

2443
02:23:40,040 --> 02:23:44,320
Speaker 1: premised on, right in some ways, Right, if you're a

2444
02:23:44,400 --> 02:23:46,640
Speaker 1: friend of King George, you got treated better then if

2445
02:23:46,720 --> 02:23:51,600
Speaker 1: you weren't a friend of King George. It's the world

2446
02:23:51,640 --> 02:23:53,000
Speaker 1: that feels like we're living in now.

2447
02:23:53,120 --> 02:23:53,320
Speaker 2: Right.

2448
02:23:53,400 --> 02:23:56,280
Speaker 1: It's pay to play here in Washington, d C. Right,

2449
02:23:56,280 --> 02:24:01,560
Speaker 1: if you've got if you want access to King Trump,

2450
02:24:02,000 --> 02:24:04,200
Speaker 1: you got to pay to get it. You've got to

2451
02:24:04,240 --> 02:24:06,039
Speaker 1: be of a certain status, and you've got to be

2452
02:24:06,120 --> 02:24:11,280
Speaker 1: of a certain amount of money. It's just, you know,

2453
02:24:11,520 --> 02:24:17,480
Speaker 1: it is It's a small thing, but it's emblematic, right,

2454
02:24:17,720 --> 02:24:22,720
Speaker 1: And you know I would just urge these casino companies.

2455
02:24:22,920 --> 02:24:27,240
Speaker 1: You're already making a shitload of money. Do you really

2456
02:24:27,280 --> 02:24:31,400
Speaker 1: got to nickel and dime your ten dollars customers, you

2457
02:24:31,480 --> 02:24:33,880
Speaker 1: got a nickel and dime. You're working class and middle

2458
02:24:33,879 --> 02:24:38,039
Speaker 1: class folks that want to enjoy a casino. You're already

2459
02:24:38,080 --> 02:24:41,560
Speaker 1: taking advantage of them with the ridiculous slot machine business. Right,

2460
02:24:43,200 --> 02:24:45,760
Speaker 1: You've already sort of goosed the odds there, But now

2461
02:24:45,760 --> 02:24:48,440
Speaker 1: you're going to nickel and dime people that are smart

2462
02:24:48,440 --> 02:24:50,920
Speaker 1: about cards, but maybe don't have the bankroll to go

2463
02:24:51,000 --> 02:24:53,520
Speaker 1: into the private room, or they don't have the bankroll

2464
02:24:53,560 --> 02:24:55,680
Speaker 1: to afford a one hundred dollars hand or fifty dollars.

2465
02:24:56,120 --> 02:25:00,120
Speaker 1: It's just it's it's really it's like it's in your faith, yes,

2466
02:25:01,160 --> 02:25:05,959
Speaker 1: and it sending a message that, oh, you know, you

2467
02:25:06,080 --> 02:25:08,760
Speaker 1: get treated better if you have more money, and yeah,

2468
02:25:08,800 --> 02:25:12,920
Speaker 1: that is a fact of life that that happens. But

2469
02:25:13,160 --> 02:25:17,800
Speaker 1: can we not like embed it, right, can you know?

2470
02:25:18,360 --> 02:25:20,760
Speaker 1: You know, maybe that's the way human nature is, but

2471
02:25:20,840 --> 02:25:24,280
Speaker 1: let's not embed it as policy, you know. And again,

2472
02:25:24,320 --> 02:25:28,560
Speaker 1: it's a small thing, but it is symbolic of a

2473
02:25:29,959 --> 02:25:33,920
Speaker 1: larger problem we're dealing with in society. And it's not

2474
02:25:33,959 --> 02:25:37,480
Speaker 1: just in America, and it's arguably why we're in the

2475
02:25:37,600 --> 02:25:41,440
Speaker 1: polarized situation that we're in. So again, it's a small thing.

2476
02:25:41,959 --> 02:25:47,760
Speaker 1: It's an example on blackjack, but it is, but it

2477
02:25:47,840 --> 02:25:50,920
Speaker 1: is emblematic of this mindset too often that we have,

2478
02:25:51,640 --> 02:25:55,640
Speaker 1: which is you reward people that already have and you

2479
02:25:55,760 --> 02:26:01,320
Speaker 1: punish people that don't. One other rant, it's sports related,

2480
02:26:01,360 --> 02:26:04,280
Speaker 1: So I get this. The Nationals are one of these

2481
02:26:04,320 --> 02:26:08,320
Speaker 1: teams that don't have a TV right now, do not

2482
02:26:08,640 --> 02:26:12,120
Speaker 1: have a TV provider, They don't have a channel that

2483
02:26:12,120 --> 02:26:15,480
Speaker 1: they're on locally. We used to be on something called Masson.

2484
02:26:16,080 --> 02:26:18,360
Speaker 1: It was something that was owned by the Orioles. It

2485
02:26:18,440 --> 02:26:22,039
Speaker 1: was all designed is sort of to compensate the Orioles

2486
02:26:22,040 --> 02:26:25,040
Speaker 1: for taking the DC market away from away from Peter

2487
02:26:25,120 --> 02:26:28,640
Speaker 1: Angelo's back when he owned the team. At some point

2488
02:26:28,680 --> 02:26:31,240
Speaker 1: it was supposed to end. It's been an absolute nightmare

2489
02:26:31,280 --> 02:26:34,440
Speaker 1: for the Nationals. It is arguably what is sort of

2490
02:26:34,480 --> 02:26:37,320
Speaker 1: tied the hands of this current ownership group, and I

2491
02:26:37,360 --> 02:26:39,920
Speaker 1: think they would would have sold the team a couple

2492
02:26:39,920 --> 02:26:44,480
Speaker 1: of years ago if an owner thought that they weren't

2493
02:26:44,520 --> 02:26:47,360
Speaker 1: tied up in this mass and mess. So we're getting

2494
02:26:47,360 --> 02:26:49,800
Speaker 1: out of the mass and mess. So I get this

2495
02:26:49,879 --> 02:26:53,800
Speaker 1: email a new way to watch National Games introducing a

2496
02:26:53,840 --> 02:26:56,280
Speaker 1: new way to watch national games in twenty twenty six

2497
02:26:56,400 --> 02:26:59,200
Speaker 1: right stream all games, and it it says click here

2498
02:26:59,200 --> 02:27:02,000
Speaker 1: to learn more. So I'm excited. I'm clicking here to

2499
02:27:02,080 --> 02:27:06,760
Speaker 1: learn more. And it says beginning this season, fans can

2500
02:27:06,800 --> 02:27:09,560
Speaker 1: watch Nationals dot TV on cable, satellite, or in the

2501
02:27:09,680 --> 02:27:14,520
Speaker 1: MLB APP. I'm like great, and then it says click

2502
02:27:14,800 --> 02:27:18,240
Speaker 1: click to view in market streaming FAQ and then click

2503
02:27:18,280 --> 02:27:23,840
Speaker 1: to view satellite, cable or MVPD viewing options FAQ. Okay,

2504
02:27:24,640 --> 02:27:26,600
Speaker 1: So I'm like, all right, let me figure out this

2505
02:27:26,680 --> 02:27:31,040
Speaker 1: satellite cable aspect. Can I still watch Nationals games through

2506
02:27:31,080 --> 02:27:35,279
Speaker 1: my satellite or cable provider? The answers says yes, Nationals

2507
02:27:35,320 --> 02:27:38,400
Speaker 1: dot TV will be available on select cable and satellite providers.

2508
02:27:38,879 --> 02:27:42,480
Speaker 1: Specific providers in cable channel locations will be announced closer

2509
02:27:42,480 --> 02:27:46,160
Speaker 1: to the start of the season. Next question, what channel

2510
02:27:46,240 --> 02:27:50,600
Speaker 1: will NATIONALSTV dot TV? Beyond specific channel locations and cable

2511
02:27:50,640 --> 02:27:53,840
Speaker 1: and satellite providers will be announced later this offseason. We

2512
02:27:53,920 --> 02:27:56,440
Speaker 1: expect that the channel locations will be located near other

2513
02:27:56,480 --> 02:27:57,320
Speaker 1: sports programming.

2514
02:27:57,840 --> 02:27:58,640
Speaker 2: How do I watch.

2515
02:27:58,520 --> 02:28:00,960
Speaker 1: Nationals Baseball if I live outside of the local area

2516
02:28:01,600 --> 02:28:05,280
Speaker 1: MLB dot tv subscribers, well, we already knew that. The

2517
02:28:05,320 --> 02:28:08,959
Speaker 1: point is, they make this announcement, they have nothing to announce.

2518
02:28:09,520 --> 02:28:12,320
Speaker 1: They don't know if the Nationals dot tv where it's airing.

2519
02:28:12,959 --> 02:28:16,080
Speaker 1: They've made no deals with YouTube TV, made no deals

2520
02:28:16,080 --> 02:28:19,440
Speaker 1: with direct TV, with Dish, with Comcast, with Exfinity, whatever,

2521
02:28:19,879 --> 02:28:23,880
Speaker 1: you know, Charter cocks, whatever is left on how this works.

2522
02:28:25,760 --> 02:28:29,200
Speaker 1: And they still put this out come on guys, We're

2523
02:28:29,240 --> 02:28:32,160
Speaker 1: all wondering. Oh, and it got it got even worse

2524
02:28:32,200 --> 02:28:36,760
Speaker 1: here because this gets at the whole because this really chat.

2525
02:28:36,800 --> 02:28:38,640
Speaker 1: It's going to chap a lot of fans. You know what,

2526
02:28:40,200 --> 02:28:43,959
Speaker 1: First it says, will I be able to stream Nationals games?

2527
02:28:44,000 --> 02:28:47,040
Speaker 1: The answers yes, Nationals dot TV on MLB dot tv

2528
02:28:47,120 --> 02:28:49,959
Speaker 1: includes access to all local Nationals games on a variety

2529
02:28:49,959 --> 02:28:52,440
Speaker 1: of devices. And then as it's how will it work

2530
02:28:52,440 --> 02:28:55,360
Speaker 1: and how much will it cost? Nationals dot tv and

2531
02:28:55,400 --> 02:28:58,720
Speaker 1: market streaming packages will be purchased for a discounted rate

2532
02:28:58,920 --> 02:29:01,640
Speaker 1: at ninety nine dollars per year or nineteen ninety nine

2533
02:29:01,720 --> 02:29:06,200
Speaker 1: per month, So you're gonna have to pay directly to

2534
02:29:06,280 --> 02:29:11,040
Speaker 1: the Nationals to get access locally. But wait, there's more,

2535
02:29:11,400 --> 02:29:13,160
Speaker 1: are there any blackouts in market?

2536
02:29:13,280 --> 02:29:13,720
Speaker 2: Nationals?

2537
02:29:13,760 --> 02:29:17,840
Speaker 1: Dot TV subscribers can stream all local Nationals broadcasts with

2538
02:29:17,879 --> 02:29:22,840
Speaker 1: no blackouts in market Nationals dot TV. So you're asking

2539
02:29:22,959 --> 02:29:27,320
Speaker 1: local fans now to pay, and I guess this is

2540
02:29:27,360 --> 02:29:30,080
Speaker 1: the future of television. But you know, when you've lived

2541
02:29:30,080 --> 02:29:32,160
Speaker 1: in a world where you already have a cable subscription,

2542
02:29:32,400 --> 02:29:35,520
Speaker 1: or you know, you just you hope your local baseball

2543
02:29:35,560 --> 02:29:37,600
Speaker 1: and your local MBA and your local NHL is just

2544
02:29:37,600 --> 02:29:40,879
Speaker 1: going to be on your cable system. Well now they

2545
02:29:41,040 --> 02:29:42,879
Speaker 1: you know, they're just going to cut it out and

2546
02:29:42,920 --> 02:29:44,360
Speaker 1: you're going to have to have a So we go

2547
02:29:44,440 --> 02:29:48,959
Speaker 1: from having a specific subscription for our streaming platforms and

2548
02:29:49,000 --> 02:29:51,080
Speaker 1: our cable subscribers to now we're gonna have to have

2549
02:29:51,160 --> 02:29:58,720
Speaker 1: direct subscriptions to to the team in order to watch

2550
02:29:58,760 --> 02:30:01,840
Speaker 1: the team locally. I mean, my goodness, even the NFL

2551
02:30:01,879 --> 02:30:04,720
Speaker 1: is not making you do this, right the NFL. If

2552
02:30:04,760 --> 02:30:07,280
Speaker 1: you're a Commander's fan here in Washington, the Washington game

2553
02:30:07,320 --> 02:30:09,680
Speaker 1: is going to be on local TV and you're not

2554
02:30:09,720 --> 02:30:11,960
Speaker 1: going to have to pay extra money for it, but

2555
02:30:12,080 --> 02:30:15,160
Speaker 1: you are if you're a Nationals fan, I have to say, Look,

2556
02:30:15,200 --> 02:30:18,680
Speaker 1: I understand they're in a box here, and it's kind

2557
02:30:18,720 --> 02:30:20,480
Speaker 1: of we're going to live in this temporary It's like

2558
02:30:20,480 --> 02:30:23,640
Speaker 1: you're living out of a suitcase as a franchise at

2559
02:30:23,640 --> 02:30:29,080
Speaker 1: the moment. With not having a devoted sort of TV partner,

2560
02:30:29,200 --> 02:30:33,360
Speaker 1: which they don't, they're basically outsourcing this to MLB. I

2561
02:30:33,400 --> 02:30:37,640
Speaker 1: know this is a total mess, the Sinclair matt regional mess,

2562
02:30:37,680 --> 02:30:41,920
Speaker 1: and that this whole thing is just screwed up. I

2563
02:30:42,040 --> 02:30:47,440
Speaker 1: empathize to a point, But there is some alternatives here, right,

2564
02:30:47,520 --> 02:30:50,280
Speaker 1: and you have a nationals organization that may may or

2565
02:30:50,280 --> 02:30:52,480
Speaker 1: may not want to sell to ted Leonsis, who owned

2566
02:30:52,520 --> 02:30:55,640
Speaker 1: something called Monumental Sports, which is sort of the local

2567
02:30:55,680 --> 02:30:59,520
Speaker 1: sports around here. That would be the easy way to

2568
02:30:59,560 --> 02:31:02,440
Speaker 1: cut a deal. For whatever reason, they don't.

2569
02:31:02,320 --> 02:31:02,880
Speaker 2: Want to do that.

2570
02:31:03,879 --> 02:31:06,240
Speaker 1: But you're doing a disservice to your fans. Look, they

2571
02:31:06,280 --> 02:31:08,800
Speaker 1: already are doing a disservice to us by no longer

2572
02:31:08,840 --> 02:31:11,200
Speaker 1: being interested in building a winning baseball team for the

2573
02:31:11,200 --> 02:31:12,120
Speaker 1: next two or three years.

2574
02:31:12,240 --> 02:31:13,199
Speaker 2: They're actually doing.

2575
02:31:13,040 --> 02:31:16,240
Speaker 1: More of a teardown in order to extend this five

2576
02:31:16,320 --> 02:31:20,080
Speaker 1: year rebuild another five years. So you know, that's what

2577
02:31:20,240 --> 02:31:22,480
Speaker 1: happens when you have ownership that doesn't want to spend

2578
02:31:22,480 --> 02:31:26,000
Speaker 1: any money but now we're going to get nickel and

2579
02:31:26,080 --> 02:31:28,360
Speaker 1: dimed in order to watch our Triple A franchise on

2580
02:31:28,400 --> 02:31:30,960
Speaker 1: the major league level. We're going to have to pay

2581
02:31:31,000 --> 02:31:33,400
Speaker 1: more money to do this. Now, I'm an addict. I

2582
02:31:33,480 --> 02:31:38,000
Speaker 1: love my Nats. I'm still going to be hopeful because

2583
02:31:38,000 --> 02:31:41,560
Speaker 1: that's what we baseball fans are. But just you know,

2584
02:31:41,680 --> 02:31:44,280
Speaker 1: this is just a communications one on one. If you

2585
02:31:44,320 --> 02:31:49,440
Speaker 1: have nothing to announce, don't announce it. They put out

2586
02:31:49,440 --> 02:31:52,720
Speaker 1: this huge release to say here it is, you're gonna

2587
02:31:52,720 --> 02:31:54,960
Speaker 1: be able to watch Nationals dot TV on cable. Well,

2588
02:31:55,000 --> 02:31:57,160
Speaker 1: we can't tell you where on cable, we can't tell

2589
02:31:57,160 --> 02:31:59,600
Speaker 1: you where on satellite. We can't really tell you anything

2590
02:31:59,640 --> 02:32:02,480
Speaker 1: about it other than we're going to if you if

2591
02:32:02,480 --> 02:32:04,800
Speaker 1: you don't want to find it, If we don't come

2592
02:32:04,879 --> 02:32:07,880
Speaker 1: up with a cable or satellite partner, and we don't

2593
02:32:07,920 --> 02:32:10,800
Speaker 1: cut a deal with a local TV affiliate, we're going

2594
02:32:10,840 --> 02:32:15,240
Speaker 1: to make you pay to watch the Nationals on TV. Anyway,

2595
02:32:18,040 --> 02:32:22,320
Speaker 1: Baseball is an incredible game that has a lot of

2596
02:32:22,560 --> 02:32:27,000
Speaker 1: messed up business practices, and this is just a reminder

2597
02:32:27,959 --> 02:32:33,800
Speaker 1: of just how screwed up the entire media ecosystem has come.

2598
02:32:34,400 --> 02:32:38,000
Speaker 1: And you know how much we're all being charged to

2599
02:32:38,120 --> 02:32:41,440
Speaker 1: watch sports, and we're all being you know, it's I

2600
02:32:41,480 --> 02:32:44,879
Speaker 1: will say this, I worry that we are we you know,

2601
02:32:45,400 --> 02:32:48,840
Speaker 1: just like I was ranting about what we're doing to

2602
02:32:49,080 --> 02:32:52,200
Speaker 1: working class people at casinos, that we're essentially going to

2603
02:32:52,240 --> 02:32:54,880
Speaker 1: start pricing people out of being able to watch sports

2604
02:32:54,920 --> 02:32:55,240
Speaker 1: at home.

2605
02:32:57,840 --> 02:33:02,000
Speaker 2: Is that really what you want? Rob Manfred? Seriously? Is

2606
02:33:02,040 --> 02:33:03,600
Speaker 2: that what you want? Is that good for the game.

2607
02:33:04,640 --> 02:33:07,680
Speaker 1: Don't you want the biggest possible audience to be watching

2608
02:33:07,720 --> 02:33:11,959
Speaker 1: baseball and not put it behind a velvet rope? Anyway,

2609
02:33:13,480 --> 02:33:17,960
Speaker 1: all right, brant over, hopefully the next time I come

2610
02:33:17,959 --> 02:33:19,640
Speaker 1: to you, Actually that's not true, because I'm going to

2611
02:33:19,720 --> 02:33:23,840
Speaker 1: drop an episode on Monday before the game, so you

2612
02:33:23,879 --> 02:33:29,000
Speaker 1: will hear there'll be one more episode before then. I know,

2613
02:33:29,040 --> 02:33:32,600
Speaker 1: we're all I'm I've had a hard time focusing on

2614
02:33:32,720 --> 02:33:35,760
Speaker 1: all sorts of other things because of this moment. It's

2615
02:33:35,800 --> 02:33:38,920
Speaker 1: been a wonderful distraction. But for me, it has meant

2616
02:33:39,040 --> 02:33:42,760
Speaker 1: holiday season extends all the way to January nineteenth, and

2617
02:33:42,800 --> 02:33:47,360
Speaker 1: it will end about eleven thirty Eastern time at hard

2618
02:33:47,440 --> 02:33:51,920
Speaker 1: Rock Stadium. So hopefully I'm in a good mood after that.

2619
02:33:52,080 --> 02:33:58,080
Speaker 1: So with that, enjoy weekend. Thanks for supporting this both

2620
02:33:58,120 --> 02:33:59,279
Speaker 1: audio and video podcast.

2621
02:33:59,320 --> 02:34:00,000
Speaker 2: I appreciate it.

2622
02:34:00,800 --> 02:34:05,039
Speaker 1: If you've got any comments, questions, queries, or complaints, shoot

2623
02:34:05,040 --> 02:34:07,920
Speaker 1: them to ask Chuck at the Chuck podcast dot com.

2624
02:34:07,920 --> 02:34:10,520
Speaker 1: And with that, I'll see in about ninety six hours