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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Massive Massive Show. Today. It is Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: It is the day we go through the full slate,

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Speaker 1: talk about every single game. Me and my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: Michael Padre, Professional Better, Mr Simon Hunter. Hello, Chad. Listen,

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Speaker 1: we just had our longest prep meeting ever, our pre

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Speaker 1: show meeting. Matt Mitchell gave us so many notes for

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Speaker 1: the rundown, almost all of it prompted by feedback from fans.

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Speaker 1: As I have said, feedback is a gift. We love

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Speaker 1: getting it. Reminder, we're going to run through the full slate.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about our Simon says, Bet, We're gonna

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Speaker 1: probably get to a foxhole, will probably do big balls

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Speaker 1: bet on Thursday, when we narrow down the slate, we

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Speaker 1: will do scooch Roulette. A couple of things that people

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Speaker 1: really waited on. I said a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: People said they didn't like having Tina our voice of scheduling.

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Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals are back on their bullshit. I said, if

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Speaker 1: the silent majority speaks up, she'll come back. The silent

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Speaker 1: majority has spoken. Most of you get that. Tina is

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Speaker 1: there to tell you what the next game is. She's

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Speaker 1: the traffic cop. People like her, they want her. I've

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Speaker 1: gotten a lot of personal d ms about it. We're

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Speaker 1: bringing Tina back. Let's do this number two. People have

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Speaker 1: asked a lot about the show Convinced Me that we

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Speaker 1: reference on the podcast. Convinced Me is a live show.

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Speaker 1: It is not a podcast. It is a live show

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Speaker 1: that we do on the Action Network HQ Twitter handle

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Speaker 1: and on the Action Network YouTube page on Sunday mornings

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Speaker 1: at eleven a m. Eastern. It's me, it's Simon, it's

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Speaker 1: other Action Network experts, Sean Kroner and Chris Raybon. The

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Speaker 1: three of them try to convince me, Chad, what bets

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Speaker 1: I should make that day, what player prop, what side

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Speaker 1: I should make, and what total I should make. The

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Speaker 1: three of them compete. I make the choice based on

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Speaker 1: their analysis. It's a really fun show. It's thirty minutes,

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Speaker 1: not a podcast. Live show you can only get at

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Speaker 1: eleven am and after you can get it through the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day. That's two. A lot of people

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Speaker 1: were getting tired of the Mike Tomlin drops. What not

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Speaker 1: that they don't like them, they just want a new one.

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell has spent hours bringing in new Tomlin drops.

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Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed them. That's right, Chad. I actually

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Speaker 1: spoke to coach Mike Tomlin about this. I told him

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Speaker 1: that our listeners thought that he had lost his edge

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Speaker 1: and that his clips were redundant and weren't fun anymore.

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Speaker 1: Here's what he had to say about that. So be it.

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Speaker 1: We set responsibility for that. We will not go gently.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna unleash hell here in December. We're gonna go

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Speaker 1: into a mode because we have to, because that's what's required.

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Speaker 1: Let's three, Simon. If I'm missing anything, let me know. Three.

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Speaker 1: Our final picks. We're getting so many questions about our

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Speaker 1: final picks. What we do like for the five because

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about the full slate today, will narrow down

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Speaker 1: on Thursday Sunday morning, Simon and I choose our five.

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Speaker 1: I put those in the Action Network gap on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: You can download it for free, you can follow me,

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Speaker 1: you can get them. Simon also puts them out on Twitter,

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Speaker 1: so you can see him on Twitter, you can see

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Speaker 1: him in the app. What we are going to do,

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Speaker 1: because clearly we're not doing this right. We're going to

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Speaker 1: create a new handle, a new profile in the Action

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Speaker 1: Network app. Again downloaded for free. It's super easy. When

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Speaker 1: you've downloaded it. There's a little button at the bottom,

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Speaker 1: this is follow. We're going to create a handle that

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Speaker 1: says the faves five, the faves five. That's where we

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Speaker 1: will start putting our picks. Matt Mitchell, I blame you

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Speaker 1: bad producing. We should have done that from the very

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Speaker 1: beginning of the year. We'll see you guys in the

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Speaker 1: September September. I don't know what the funk you were thinking. Finally,

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Speaker 1: let's do a quick review of what happened this past

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Speaker 1: weekend because it was consequential one of your five big

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Speaker 1: bets of the year. Well, Los Angeles Chargers plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half. There wasn't a moment in that game

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Speaker 1: where I didn't think the Chargers were going to cover

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Speaker 1: that game until over time. They were just the better team.

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Speaker 1: Like the entire game, they were doing better things. I

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Speaker 1: was a little worried after that kickoff when they didn't score.

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Speaker 1: It seemed like they're play calling like inside the five.

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Speaker 1: They became a different team, and that was frustrating. We

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Speaker 1: haven't talked about it at all. I did not want it.

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Speaker 1: We didn't text about it, we didn't slack about it.

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Speaker 1: We didn't talk about it on Sunday. We have not

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Speaker 1: discussed it. This town is a make you town is

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Speaker 1: a break you down? Yeah, buddy, holy ship upsetting. I

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Speaker 1: don't even know. I still have to say, like, I

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Speaker 1: wish I didn't bet. I really do. I wish this

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Speaker 1: was a fictional show that I didn't place real money,

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Speaker 1: because that was just a kick kick in the face.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I've I've had a few times in my

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Speaker 1: life I had other people reach out to me after

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Speaker 1: a bet and make sure I'm okay. I feel like

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Speaker 1: I got flooded with people like I was like on

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Speaker 1: suicide wash and it wasn't even that bad. It was

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Speaker 1: just like stunned. Every time someone says analytics and angel

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Speaker 1: loses its wings. And I'm not a huge social media

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Speaker 1: person in the first place, but there are certain words

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Speaker 1: I'll just blacklist, and I added that to the list.

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Speaker 1: That's my mute. I muted the word on Twitter because

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Speaker 1: I just can't take it anymore. I am all about analytics.

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Speaker 1: I'm all about the math. Like I think that's the

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Speaker 1: biggest thing they've added to football is that's that's how

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Speaker 1: you win games. The Eagle Super Bowl run with Doug Peterson,

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Speaker 1: we won because analytics. He was going from fourth downs,

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Speaker 1: but he wasn't going for it every fourth down. And

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Speaker 1: you can say which you want about that. The Chargers game,

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Speaker 1: there is no analytics in the world you can find that.

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Speaker 1: Before halftime. You don't kick a field goal there. You

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Speaker 1: have the ball all the other in the chief's territory.

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Speaker 1: If you kick a field goal, you're up seven for

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Speaker 1: the Chargers. That's a key number seven. There is no

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Speaker 1: field position there. It's before halftime. Okay, it's not as

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Speaker 1: if you miss the field goal, it doesn't matter that

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Speaker 1: the half's over. That's why you go for it on

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Speaker 1: fourth down because you're already pinning the team back defensively.

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Speaker 1: So that means, yeah, if it's the middle of the

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Speaker 1: third quarter, go for it on fourth down. If it's

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Speaker 1: fourth and two at the two, yes, I mean it

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Speaker 1: still makes me sick to my start thinking about it.

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Speaker 1: But that's what's being a pro is I chased horribly

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Speaker 1: on Saturday, and I got all the money back, thank god.

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Speaker 1: But it was all rage bet Like I told you

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Speaker 1: guys on I think it was Friday, A professional I

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Speaker 1: knew was betting you a B which is some college

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Speaker 1: football game. So I bet that took all the winnings,

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Speaker 1: put it on the Colts, and it was just pure

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Speaker 1: funk the system, funck the public, like these assholes are

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Speaker 1: giving me my money back, and I would just bummed

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Speaker 1: out because again, like you know it is we do

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Speaker 1: this show, I'm giving out the clients. It's just a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are relying on my info and in

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Speaker 1: and this is like that where you're feeling good the

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Speaker 1: entire game. It's it's the worst feeling. Clear. We we

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Speaker 1: bury it. We move on. But no, I'm I'm probably

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Speaker 1: gonna spend another hundred k on therapy trying to get

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Speaker 1: over that game. We did. We we did bury it.

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Speaker 1: And I also, like you, look, if if if the

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Speaker 1: Chargers had gotten blown out in that game, I would

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Speaker 1: feel bad. But the Chargers were in that game, and

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Speaker 1: we got burned by sort of really outside the lane,

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Speaker 1: thinking that even for a game in which we expect

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Speaker 1: outside the lane, thinking it was outside those lanes. I

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Speaker 1: like you. I bet the Colts heavy at two and

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Speaker 1: a half. I bet it. I made my money back.

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Speaker 1: We had Indian Contest, we had the Chargers the next day.

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Speaker 1: We had Denver in Atlanta. That didn't work out for us.

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Speaker 1: We did have Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh whom after the show convinced me.

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Speaker 1: I already had him at plus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: I bet him on the money line before the game,

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Speaker 1: and then when they were downten nothing, I bet him

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Speaker 1: at plus two hundred of the money line. So what

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Speaker 1: do you think of that, Simon? I was scared, honestly,

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Speaker 1: when they were down ten, I was like, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: I would They finished with a hundred and fifty yards total.

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Speaker 1: But we got to cover. That's all that matters. But

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Speaker 1: that's the classic. We didn't deserve it, but Tannehill gave

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Speaker 1: us what was a four turnovers kind of a gift

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Speaker 1: day Tennessee to just really gave away that game. Forget

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Speaker 1: the opponent, the nameless great faces. Yeah it was it

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Speaker 1: was rough. Of course, I gave it all back when

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Speaker 1: I bet the Packers minus three and a half, and

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Speaker 1: so that was kind of a kick in the Dick

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Speaker 1: the way they lost that game, so it ended up

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Speaker 1: being a pretty ugly day for me. A couple of

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Speaker 1: quick things to review. We're going to get to the show.

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Speaker 1: Last week, our foxhold bet was the Colts are Simon says,

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Speaker 1: bet was Atlanta. Scoot Roulette for Simon was the Colt

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Speaker 1: was for me? For me, it was the Falcons. So Simon,

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Speaker 1: you want Scott. I'm dominating in Scoot like you don't

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Speaker 1: want to know that record yet. Speaking of Scoot Roulette,

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Speaker 1: we may or may not have a special guest for

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Speaker 1: our last show of the calendar year. I'm just saying guests. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and what's the exact day? Is the THIRTI big all right,

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Speaker 1: very quickly, very very quickly. We're going against all the

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Speaker 1: rules that Matt Mitchell told this pre show, which was

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Speaker 1: just be tight before you get to the games. Uh.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday afternoon. We're recording this. About five people

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Speaker 1: will listen to this show before the Washington football team

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Speaker 1: and the Eagles play, and before the Rams and the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks play. Do you have any thoughts on those games

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Speaker 1: right now tonight? YEP. If you for listening to this

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Speaker 1: and you're lucky enough, take Washington Football team first half

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Speaker 1: money line Worlands spread, Eagles coming off not playing any

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Speaker 1: games for over fourteen days now because they've been on

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Speaker 1: a bye week. Then the game I pushed to Tuesday, long,

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Speaker 1: long layout for an Eagles team, and they're getting good

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Speaker 1: value now in Washington football team, they're having a third

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Speaker 1: shrink quarterback coming and play for them, So to me,

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Speaker 1: this will be a sloppy first half. I'd either take

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Speaker 1: the under or just take the money line with Washington

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Speaker 1: football team trying to get a little lucky. Um. Not

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Speaker 1: a great read on that. Then the Rams Seahawks game, Like,

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Speaker 1: deep down, I wanted to just take the Seahawks. I

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Speaker 1: think you're getting a good number divisional matchup. But again

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Speaker 1: we're all talk about it's just so to predict anything

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Speaker 1: with all this crapping on the COVID, so I don't

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Speaker 1: know professional in me, it's like one of these dogs

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Speaker 1: have to cover. I would take the Seahawks here at

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Speaker 1: that number. That's a big number for this divisional matchup

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Speaker 1: and it's still Russell Wilson. Alright, Tina, welcome back from exile.

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Speaker 1: Who do we go first? San Francisco forty Niners at

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Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. This can't be right. Forty Niners on the

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Speaker 1: road three and a half point favorites against the Titans.

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Speaker 1: Come on, I know this is like the Chargers all

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Speaker 1: over again. Like, of course we're supposed to take Tennessee here. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is ridiculous. Probably one of the tougher teams in

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Speaker 1: all football. They're just a bruising team and they dominate

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Speaker 1: up front. And that's what's been huge for this fourty

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Speaker 1: Niners team. Is there one of the stronger teams on

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Speaker 1: offensive line and d line, and that's how they dominate

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Speaker 1: these teams to impose their will. I hate it. I

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Speaker 1: hate that we have to take Tennessee here. What we

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Speaker 1: do this is a classic. We're buying low in Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: I make this line of pick the fact again, three

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Speaker 1: and a half points. It's it's crazy, it's the hype

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Speaker 1: is as as you can get. Atlanta gave away that

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Speaker 1: game slash cover. They were I believe, over sixteen inside

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Speaker 1: the five yard line. Like again, let's let's process that

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Speaker 1: they got in there four times, it came away with

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Speaker 1: zero points inside the five yard line. WHOA, that's you

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Speaker 1: can't really depend on those kind of things. Especially with

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Speaker 1: this Tennessee team. They just had arguing one of their

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Speaker 1: worst games of the year against Pittsburgh that was completely

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Speaker 1: meltdown by them. Now they're coming home short weeks, are

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Speaker 1: feeling great. I I don't know, like, of course we

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Speaker 1: have to take Kindnessee. But if I'm gonna am I

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Speaker 1: gonna make this one of our five. I don't know, Chad,

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Speaker 1: but love love Tennessee. Here has to take this number

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Speaker 1: every time immediately. This is bright red siren inflamed. Take this.

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Speaker 1: This is crazy. The Titans defense is so much better

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Speaker 1: than we thought they were earlier in the year. The

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Speaker 1: Ford Niners are a very physical team that have also

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Speaker 1: been benefiting from having some pretty bad defenses, and this

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Speaker 1: is not a team that you can sort of make

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Speaker 1: mistakes against. The Times are getting a little bit healthier

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Speaker 1: at their skill positions. People say I'm too low in

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Speaker 1: the forty Niners. I get it. They're they're healthy, They're

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Speaker 1: clicking on all the cylinders here. But if you go

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Speaker 1: up by just the math, you're basing off the math

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Speaker 1: offline movement and adjustment and what the public is gonna do.

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Speaker 1: You're probably gotta bet in chance of covering this number. Blindly.

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Speaker 1: So that means you're already slanted towards taking this Tennessee team,

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Speaker 1: and we look at the data, it's probably gonna even

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Speaker 1: bumped that number up even more. So it's hard to

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Speaker 1: pass on this one. But I just don't know if

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Speaker 1: I can make it one of our five right now.

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Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers. This line is escalated

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Speaker 1: a bit. Packers minus seven. Browns made a show last

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Speaker 1: night against the against the Las Vegas Raiders. Nick mullins,

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Speaker 1: he really looked, you know, serviceable and showed some heart

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Speaker 1: with that team exactly. It's I mean, there's no there's

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Speaker 1: nothing we can really do. That's that's the problem with

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Speaker 1: this season. It's like all this COVID stuff. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the worst one to me, my biggest miss last week

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Speaker 1: had to have been that Saints one. We always love

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Speaker 1: taking the Saints. We love fading Brady and the Sean Bred.

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Speaker 1: The Champagne being out was what just spooked me completely.

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Speaker 1: And it's like once again I got due by COVID.

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Speaker 1: It was it did not matter, not nothing mattered. Again.

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Speaker 1: The reason we should have taken that game was just

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Speaker 1: the defensive matchup, how they match up against Stampus. So

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Speaker 1: that's what's hard with the reading these ones. It's like

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Speaker 1: those are big misses, this Browns one. If it was

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Speaker 1: a normal year, I'd be all over the Browns, but

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Speaker 1: because of everything going with COVID, it makes me want

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Speaker 1: to go towards Green Bay. They're the healthier team. They've

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Speaker 1: been practicing the last couple of weeks together. That's the thing.

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Speaker 1: People again, these Brown's players haven't been practicing, They've just

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Speaker 1: been sitting out. They can't come into the facility. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's like, maybe I'll change once we maybe next show.

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Speaker 1: But as we sit here on Tuesday with limited information

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Speaker 1: we have and I don't really know, like if it's

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Speaker 1: Nick Mullins, Aaron Rodgers or case key members Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: and Lambeau. Yeah, I'm I'm taking Aaron Rodgers. And it's

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Speaker 1: funny we're sitting here late December. We we joked off

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Speaker 1: somewhere about it, Chad one. That's what the Green Bay

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Speaker 1: was to win the Super Bowl one, and that was

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Speaker 1: all because of rumors about Rogers leaving. Now I think

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Speaker 1: they're what plus four fifty to win the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: So that's that's probably one of the few bets. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna end up making good money on being able to

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Speaker 1: head you that out because we know they're gonna lose

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Speaker 1: the NFC Championship game. That's what Green Bay does. But

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Speaker 1: right now you have to feel great if you have

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Speaker 1: one for this Green Bay team. Actually, I thought about

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Speaker 1: this the other night when they were up seventeen and

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Speaker 1: I was feeling really good, and they had the ball

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Speaker 1: on the thirty yard line of the Ravens, and I

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Speaker 1: had bet minus three and a half live, thinking I

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Speaker 1: m a live betting genius, and I had already in

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Speaker 1: my head reprogrammed how I'm betting going forward, which was

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Speaker 1: instead of feeling like I have to bet every game,

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Speaker 1: betting the game I feel most comfortable about with bigger

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Speaker 1: numbers and then adjusting those games live, especially if I

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Speaker 1: feel like the team that is better ends up down early,

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Speaker 1: because then all of a sudden, I'm just getting a

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Speaker 1: better number, and then the Packers regressed and all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, for the first time all season, didn't cover

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Speaker 1: against the team with the backup quarterback and no defensive backs.

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Speaker 1: Now it's the never ending back doors Chad. Whatever side

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Speaker 1: we're on, I'm just assuming we're gonna get back door

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Speaker 1: now you can Alwa's coming. Doesn't it feel like we've

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Speaker 1: been playing from behind all year? Yeah, things just haven't

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Speaker 1: bounced our way. That's just gambling. I mean, you can

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Speaker 1: put all the work and all the all the time,

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Speaker 1: and you still need the ball to bounce your way.

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Speaker 1: And that's that's been It's been very humbling, humbling these

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Speaker 1: last couple of weeks where we're on the wrong side

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Speaker 1: of a lot of these ones, and a lot of

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Speaker 1: these ones that come down the final play um brutal,

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Speaker 1: especially like last night that bears they should have covered

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Speaker 1: that seven and they don't kick the extra point because

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Speaker 1: that rule and it's just like typical, typical of typical,

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Speaker 1: they don't push on that sudding. I do think it's

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Speaker 1: brought us closer. Yeah, this is when you say, I agree.

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Speaker 1: I agree. We've been in the foxhole. We haven't killed

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Speaker 1: each other, we haven't blamed each other, we haven't gotten

339
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Speaker 1: angry about it. We've made choices collectively individually, and it's

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Speaker 1: worked out like we're still buddies. No, it's the best.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for the olive oil. You're bet Indianapolis Cults

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Speaker 1: at Arizona Cardinals let's see, the Colts are one and

343
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Speaker 1: a half point underdogs on the road Arizona. Maybe their pick.

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Speaker 1: Maybe the Cardinals are pick. This is an interesting one.

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Speaker 1: This is an interesting one. Do you have a strong

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Speaker 1: opinion on this already? Of course it's the Colts. Tell

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Speaker 1: me why you think that? Well? Actually, surprisingly I love

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Speaker 1: the Arizona here, Cold Steam. It's inflated that the Cults

349
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Speaker 1: were plus three plus three and a half. Yeah, I'd

350
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Speaker 1: be all over them. But the fact that it's moved

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Speaker 1: down this number, it's the books are laying a trap. This.

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Speaker 1: This feels incredibly trappy, just like the Patriots felt against

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Speaker 1: this Cold Steam last week. Um, right now your book

354
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Speaker 1: you have one and a half, which means you can

355
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Speaker 1: tease us up to seven and a half. I just

356
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Speaker 1: can't see why they would be doing that. Same with

357
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Speaker 1: I felt with the Patriots last week. It kind of

358
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Speaker 1: felt like they knew people would be tasing these standalone games,

359
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Speaker 1: and they're giving you a number to get you across

360
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Speaker 1: a square number that like they know like someone especially

361
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Speaker 1: to me, if I see seven a half, I love

362
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Speaker 1: that number. The public even more so so when I

363
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:34,400
Speaker 1: saw this line initially, I immediately saw trap Um, when

364
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Speaker 1: looked at the numbers, I made this line minus three

365
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Speaker 1: for the Cardinals. So I'm getting a point and a

366
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Speaker 1: half for the Cardinals. I'll take the value. But I

367
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Speaker 1: hate going against my cold steam because I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you remember, this is like my all end team

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Speaker 1: of this season. So I I'm just playing the position

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Speaker 1: the spots. The bookmakers had the Colts win in ten

371
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Speaker 1: wins before the season started and went all the way

372
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Speaker 1: down to eight seven and a half once Carson Wentz

373
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Speaker 1: got hurt to start the year. They lose this game,

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Speaker 1: they win there next to they'll finish the year tenant seven,

375
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 1: right where the bookmakers had. This just feels like a

376
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Speaker 1: scheduled boss for this Colts team, this kind of match up,

377
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,639
Speaker 1: Arizona get embarrassed against the lines. I know Matt Mitchell

378
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 1: wants us to fade fade hard Kingsbury, but I can't

379
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 1: can't do in this position. Um, I'll either stay away,

380
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:25,119
Speaker 1: I'll just take the Cardinals. Cliff Kingsbury, Well, it's interesting

381
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Speaker 1: because when I was first asked me the question and

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Speaker 1: you said the Colts, and then you said, actually I

383
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,359
Speaker 1: love the Cardinals. Here this to me, purely thinking about

384
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 1: market logic was Cardinals, Cardinals, Cardinals. You got the Colts

385
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Speaker 1: beating the super hot everyone believes they're going to the

386
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Speaker 1: Super Bowl Patriots in prime time and holding them off

387
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Speaker 1: with a spectacular Jonathan Taylor run to really close the door,

388
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Speaker 1: and you got the Cardinals losing to the Lions. Like,

389
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Speaker 1: of course the Cardinals are going to be deflated. Of

390
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Speaker 1: course the Colts are going to be inflated. Of course

391
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Speaker 1: you're gonna go with the Cardinals in this game. Forget

392
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Speaker 1: about Cliff Kingsbury, forgot forget about DeAndre Hopkins dizzy playing

393
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 1: or not. You've got a team that all of a

394
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Speaker 1: sudden feels like it's season, might be spiraling, a really

395
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Speaker 1: good defense, and they're playing at home. They've actually been

396
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 1: bad at home. That's again, so there's a bunch of

397
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Speaker 1: little thing that's great about the Cardinal team there two

398
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:22,960
Speaker 1: and four at home against the spread. Um, the biggest

399
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 1: things they might be broken. That's the biggest fear right

400
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 1: now is like they didn't look good against the Bears.

401
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,120
Speaker 1: We were all on that. We said they got lucky

402
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:31,959
Speaker 1: because all the short field Danny Dollon game to him.

403
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 1: They got dominated by the Rams again that game looks

404
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 1: closer on paper because they got that last touchdown the

405
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Speaker 1: very end of the game to make it was there.

406
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 1: They didn't look right in that game, and the Lions

407
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 1: game was wild. The Lions didn't have Swift or their

408
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 1: number one tight end, and they absolutely dominated this Cardinals team.

409
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Speaker 1: So for me, if if this wasn't such bad usual

410
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Speaker 1: with the Cardinals, this is no doubt would be either

411
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Speaker 1: my Simon says or foxhold bet Like I immediately this

412
00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,200
Speaker 1: one jumped off the paper to me. But the years

413
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 1: they're broken and we already don't like their head coach.

414
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Speaker 1: I mean, this is what we do. We fade this guy.

415
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Speaker 1: So I don't know what to think. Here is just

416
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Speaker 1: on Tuesday, but I just know that, I mean, they're

417
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Speaker 1: gonna be on the Cardinals or I'm just gonna pass

418
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Speaker 1: on this one. I know there's no chance I'll have

419
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 1: money on the Colts. It's funny when you say a

420
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Speaker 1: team is broken that that ascribes such an emotional element

421
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Speaker 1: to it. When I think of something that's broken like

422
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Speaker 1: the way you're describing it to me, it feels like

423
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Speaker 1: something that is broken emotionally. Yeah, that's what these analytic

424
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Speaker 1: little nerds don't get. This half of football is mental.

425
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,159
Speaker 1: That's why these teams, like you just talked about that

426
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,680
Speaker 1: Green Bay, they turned it off and they couldn't turn

427
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 1: it back on, so the Ravens were easily able to

428
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 1: come back on them. So we've seen the time and

429
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 1: time again with these football teams. These teams get these

430
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 1: big leads and they let them teams come back because

431
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 1: football is such a mental game. Momentum can flip so

432
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 1: easily in this kind of this sport, the way it's played.

433
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 1: So it's just bad juju taking the Cardinals right now?

434
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 1: Do you feel it too? Are you? Just like, No,

435
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 1: I'm not worried. I'm not worried. I think it's the

436
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,479
Speaker 1: exact right spots. Take the Cardinals. Yeah, that's what I mean.

437
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 1: We have to either take it or pass. It's like

438
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 1: it's yeah, you can't take the Colts here. I'm taking

439
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 1: the emotion out of it, out of my decision making.

440
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 1: I don't disagree it's an emotional game players are playing it.

441
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 1: But for me, overrated, underrated, over inflated, under inflated, bad performance,

442
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,399
Speaker 1: good performance, public loves it, public against it. That's checking

443
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,159
Speaker 1: all the boxes. Matt Mitchell has reminded us in slack

444
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: that he he You know, he's the original fade Cliff Kingsbury.

445
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,159
Speaker 1: He did a very funny video last year about how

446
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 1: much he hated Cliff Kingsbury the second half of the

447
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 1: year because he couldn't even win when he had Patrick

448
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 1: Mahomes of Texas Tech. Week ten of this year, Cliff

449
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 1: Kingsbury was beaten by Cam Newton, who has turned out

450
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 1: to be not so much resurgent. In week eleven, they

451
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 1: defeated Russell Wilson and his mangled finger. In Week thirteen,

452
00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 1: they beat the Bears and Andy Dalton with thing but

453
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 1: short fields. In week fourteen, they were Matt Stafford's first

454
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 1: big win ever, the first time that Matt Stafford ever

455
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 1: beat a team five games plus over five hundred and

456
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: then in week fifteen they were destroyed by Jared goff

457
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 1: So two and three with wins over Andy Dalton and

458
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: a mangled Russell Wilson. That's why we're on the Cardinals

459
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 1: this week, folks. Right, Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons. The

460
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,679
Speaker 1: Lions are say, five and a half point underdogs right now.

461
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 1: Oh God, I hate taking chalk like these lines have

462
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 1: been so good to us, but we have to at

463
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 1: this point, this Lines kind of moved to move too

464
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 1: far at this point. Jared Goffs on the COVID list,

465
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 1: I saw yesterday Atlanta. They're bad. Like, I'm not gonna

466
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna defend it anymore. Like people keep saying

467
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 1: they beat they beat a bunch of nobody teams. That's fair.

468
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 1: This is a nobody team. Like again the Lines that

469
00:23:54,119 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: was incredible win last week, they're bad again. They've been

470
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: good against the spread, They're just not a team that

471
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 1: knows how to win. So them coming off a big

472
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 1: win like they just did. We saw what happened and

473
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 1: they went to go play Denver, they had a complete

474
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 1: letdown the following week. I guess we have to bank

475
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: on it again. But the fact that Atlanta is coming

476
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 1: off a bad loss, the one that they gave away

477
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 1: so many opportunity to score points, I just can't see

478
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: Atlanta having such a bad week. They got the veteran

479
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 1: quarterback and Matt Ryan, who statistically has actually been really

480
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 1: good this year. I know you don't think that because

481
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 1: we saw him go over sixteen inside the five yard line,

482
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 1: but Matt's been good this year, especially on throws downfield.

483
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 1: So against a team like Detroit that their biggest weakness

484
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: is that secondary. This is just a nice matchup for

485
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: this Atlanta team and I would take it. But again,

486
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 1: it's already feel confident about it, you know what I mean, Chadd,

487
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 1: It's like we just got burned so bad by Atlanta.

488
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,679
Speaker 1: I bet this one, I think Monday night. I'll bet

489
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:51,439
Speaker 1: it again a couple of times this week as long

490
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 1: as it keeps moving my way. Um, I just know

491
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,120
Speaker 1: the publics can be coming on Detroit and I hate

492
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 1: I hate public dogs. You should hate public dogs when

493
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,959
Speaker 1: they're connect to the Detroit lines. Yeah, that's I mean,

494
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 1: we've we've swerved on that each time they've been the

495
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 1: public dog, and it's worked out for us. I think

496
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 1: it was what the Eagles and then against Denver both times.

497
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, this is interesting. The

498
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 1: Panthers are eleven point home dogs to me when where

499
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 1: When I saw this, I knew this is gonna be

500
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: one of my bets. I'll do it as a foxhole.

501
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:30,919
Speaker 1: Let's clide down into the foxhole. There's no no one

502
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 1: else is gonna joining us, Chad. Only a few people

503
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 1: will bet this number. But with all the injuries that

504
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers have had, this plays right into the strength

505
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 1: of this Carolina team. Carolina has a really good secondary.

506
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 1: Now I'll have to do is double a B double grounk.

507
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 1: They don't have four nets. They are Ronald Jones in

508
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 1: that backfield. God wins out for the season. No one's

509
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 1: real sure if Evan's gonna play in this game. I

510
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: love I would love to take rading this bounce back position.

511
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 1: But the fact that this line was six and a

512
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 1: half seven and now it's bloomed all up to eleven

513
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 1: just because again Killen didn have a kicker in that

514
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 1: game against Buffalo. They would have covered that number if

515
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 1: they had a kicker. They had plenty opportunities to cover

516
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 1: that number, and they simply couldn't because they had to

517
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 1: go for it all fourth down. I think we're gonna

518
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 1: get the value here. I they would have covered last

519
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 1: week Carolina. I can see this number being eight, maybe

520
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: eight and a half, just because the Teasers, trying to

521
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 1: keep Tampa Bay out of that value zone. Got no

522
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 1: doubt Tampa bounced back here. That's just too many points

523
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 1: for such a banged up Tampa team. So if you're

524
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 1: a fan of this show. You bet these ugly games

525
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 1: with us. You have to bet this one. This is

526
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: an ugly number. It's divisional, they're at home. You have

527
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 1: to take this number. If you're listening to this show

528
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 1: and you don't bet this game and you like to bet,

529
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 1: If you're deciding on Sunday, I'm gonna put some money

530
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 1: on NFL football and this isn't a game you bet,

531
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: then you've learned nothing. Let me give you some context.

532
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: Right now, two of the bets are coming in in

533
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 1: the bucks, nearly fifty of the money coming in on

534
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: the Panthers. This is going to be the Pro Joe

535
00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:03,239
Speaker 1: game of the week. Overvalued, undervalued, home dog of more

536
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 1: than a touchdown, of the bets coming in on the

537
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,199
Speaker 1: road favorite. All of these things singles in the noise

538
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 1: for the underdone Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets. Is

539
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 1: this the week that we bet on the Jets less

540
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 1: than a field goal favorite? Oh God? This Jaguars team

541
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 1: man so so bad. Luckily I was on the number,

542
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 1: but I faded them in our money Lyne round Robin,

543
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 1: I just said, Houston's up the plus two hundred. At

544
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: that point, we had to take Houston. So I don't

545
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: know what to make of the Jaguar team. Just looking

546
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 1: at on paper again, I've got to my head if

547
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,719
Speaker 1: it gets the plus three, I'm it's the Jets and Jaguars.

548
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: I'll take the Jaguars plus three. It's just, how do

549
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 1: you have any confidence? But the quarterback Zack Wilson, he's

550
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 1: good for a quarter, he's terrible for three quarters. Lawrence

551
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: might be an absolute bust. His regression has been alarming.

552
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 1: He's gotten worse every game this year on. His full

553
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: work has gotten terrible. His reads are terrible. So yeah,

554
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: we can we can move on. I'm not betting this game.

555
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 1: I'll either take the plus through. I just won't touch it.

556
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:14,400
Speaker 1: I think that's an incendiary hot take Steven a statement

557
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: to say Trevor Lawrence is a bust. Certainly he's regressed,

558
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 1: but that team is a fucking dumpster fire. He's got

559
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 1: a coach who doesn't know how to coach anyone over

560
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: twenty one years old, has no support whatsoever, and is

561
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 1: basically having to tell the coach, hey, you might want

562
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 1: to put the best players on the field. Give this

563
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: guy a chance to get right with a coach who

564
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 1: they believe will be there for a while with a

565
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 1: guy who understands how to create coherence, who understands how

566
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 1: to create an offense that he can learn. I'm not

567
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 1: ready to throw it all the way. And Trevor Lawren again,

568
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 1: you don't get the mental part of football, Chad, you're

569
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: a nerd. But in all the seriousness, he's wilted. He's

570
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 1: only the biggest loser franchise in the history of football.

571
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 1: Everything about him just screams Boston and even come of

572
00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 1: the year, I didn't really trust him. I was just like,

573
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 1: you know what, I'll get benefit of the doubts of

574
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 1: these scouts are saying this kid the next Peyton, like

575
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 1: he's one of the best prospects coming out. He's big,

576
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: he's tall, he's strong, he's fast, good arm. His mental

577
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 1: is so bad, like he's just fucking stupid. So, yeah,

578
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,239
Speaker 1: you're right, if they get the right coach in there,

579
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: maybe you can fix them. But to me, fading the

580
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: Jags it's easy to do. They've just never produced a

581
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 1: good quarterback. I mean, what Mark Brunel, when, when the

582
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 1: hell was that? So I don't know, just I just

583
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 1: don't have faith in the franchise. And their decision making.

584
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 1: Maybe you're right he'll be able to bounce back from it,

585
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: but I've seen it with Sam Donald. I've just seen

586
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks lose it. They lose that step, they lose

587
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 1: that confidence. It's over. Well, look, it's no different than

588
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 1: the scouts saying he's the next Peyton Manning. You know,

589
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 1: you can be as wrong if you're being hyperbolic about

590
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: how great he can be as you are about how

591
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: bad he is after seeing no games. He's Peyton Manning

592
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 1: after seeing thirteen games, fourteen games, whatever it is, he's

593
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 1: a bust, could be somewhere in between. But just look

594
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: at your boy. Fields. Fields is being get slaughtered and

595
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: every path, every time he drops back, he's getting hit.

596
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 1: No matter what. He was making big throws last night,

597
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 1: pig throws downfield. That that's resilience. He's coming back. He

598
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: was fighting. He put that touch on end. That was

599
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: your rulling at the end of the game. That's what

600
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 1: you're looking for for these rookies. New York Giants at

601
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are playing at night. Their ten

602
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 1: point favorites in this game. Obviously a lot can change.

603
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 1: Mike Glennon is playing quarterback for the Giants. We don't

604
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 1: know enough yet to really dig in on this game.

605
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: My suggestion is what we reevaluate this game on Thursday? Yeah,

606
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: my suggestions. If you get ten and a half, I

607
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 1: grab it and then you can just buy out of

608
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: it later. Um, just in case the Eagles look like

609
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 1: ship and lose, this number will drop by like three points.

610
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 1: So to me, I would just take that number real quick,

611
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 1: because that's a that's a big, big number for a

612
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: divisional matchup between these two. They I used, I used

613
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 1: Simon saying no, I can't do that because, like you

614
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 1: just said, we don't really know what the canna happened

615
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 1: with this Eagles matchup, And because of I don't know,

616
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:00,479
Speaker 1: I don't want to go against my Eagles best bet

617
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 1: of the week, and because of COVID a little bit,

618
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 1: because who knows. Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans. So

619
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,080
Speaker 1: the Chargers break our heart, they strike a lightning boat

620
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: through the core of our beings. Talk about emotional. They're

621
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: on the road now against the Texans nine and a

622
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: half point favorites and weight on it. It's one of

623
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 1: those games. I just wait, you'll bet you hopefully you'll

624
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: be able to get a ten or something with Houston.

625
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: But Chargers team they usually beat up on these bad teams.

626
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,479
Speaker 1: So um, I'm a little scary taking Houston team off

627
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: a win. But I've seen it time and time again.

628
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 1: The Houston team plays, they play well at home, and

629
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 1: we've seen Davis Mills say what you want about them.

630
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 1: He might have been the second or third best rookie

631
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: this season. I mean, the kid is again he's only

632
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 1: beating the Jaguars. I get that he's not that that's

633
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 1: nothing to really ho hum about, but a lot of

634
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 1: these games he keeps them in close, he makes big

635
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: throw So I don't know. I feel like the value

636
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 1: right now is technically on the Chargers because at the

637
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 1: key number of ten, but I just couldn't. I just

638
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: don't feel comfortable taking that that big of a number,

639
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 1: so I probably wait and hopefully take Houston here. I

640
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: agree with you. I think Texan is going to be

641
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 1: the right side when it all comes down to it,

642
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 1: and the money and the picks are coming in on

643
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 1: the Chargers. But if we're gonna be willing to take

644
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: the Panthers in similar situations against a much better team

645
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: in the box, I can't not take the Texans, who

646
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 1: I think have shown the ability to keep these games close,

647
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: and like you said, with Davis Mills perform much better

648
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 1: than we expected against the Charger scene. That is just

649
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 1: doing consistent and I think, like you talk about emotion,

650
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 1: it's hard to come back from what they lost on Thursday.

651
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 1: It isn't. It isn't though they didn't think they're in

652
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 1: the wrong. They thought they did everything right. So to me,

653
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: they're they're probably just thinking, you know what, that's what

654
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 1: we do, that's how why we are we we are

655
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 1: this year, so I don't seem affecting that much. But

656
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 1: everything you said, it's true. If you're willing to take Carolina,

657
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 1: you kind of have to take the Texans for the

658
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 1: same exact reason. It's just way too big of a

659
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 1: number for a team that deserve all that respect. Buffalo

660
00:32:56,040 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 1: Bills at New England Patriots. The Bills anywhere from one

661
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 1: and a half to two and a half point dogs

662
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 1: against the Patriots on the road. Is this the week,

663
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:14,719
Speaker 1: my friend, were you buy into Mac Jones um again?

664
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 1: I would love to keep crushing Mac Jones because Patriots

665
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: fans are like the worst fan base in the world.

666
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 1: But he's good man. Like that was unbelievable what he

667
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 1: did in that Colds matchup, Like everything I thought was

668
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 1: gonna happen did happen. He was looked like a rookie.

669
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 1: He got dominated scheme wise, he just could not figot

670
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 1: that Colts defense, and then he figured it out and

671
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: he was very cool, common collective. Even the fact that

672
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 1: he was getting punched in the mouth on multiple plays,

673
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 1: like he was really getting hit, popping right back up,

674
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 1: making big throws. I fucking hate it, man, It's like

675
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: crazy the Patriots go from Tom Brady to fucking mac

676
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: Jones and honestly really pisces me off. But he's by

677
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 1: far the best rookie, Like I can't there's no denying

678
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 1: that this kid is toughest ship, he's smart, and he

679
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 1: makes big throws and like that of me is one

680
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: of the most important things in football. It's like, can

681
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 1: you get hit in the mouth, throw a bad pick,

682
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: they come out, throw a touchdown, Like that's that's how

683
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 1: that's how you know you can be in this league.

684
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 1: You just get over and move on the next play.

685
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 1: What the funk? This number is too too much? Like

686
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 1: it's gonna be It's about to be plus three? What

687
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 1: are we doing here? I had to take the bills.

688
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 1: I have to put bills and teasers. I don't know.

689
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,919
Speaker 1: To me, this is like the bills, not super Bowl.

690
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: But like this is what they've been thinking about for

691
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 1: two weeks, Like they just want to get back at

692
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 1: this Patriots team so bad they got embarrassed at home.

693
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 1: It's it's scaring me that it's moving this much because

694
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 1: that means a lot of professional money is coming on

695
00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 1: the Patriots, and they obviously have a read on this.

696
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 1: But the few games this week where it's a no brainer,

697
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 1: too easier. It's this bill is number this this number

698
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 1: great for teasing. You can tease it up to eight

699
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 1: and a half right now if you have a two

700
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 1: and a half line in your book. Um, I like

701
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 1: this bills number a lot, especially if it reaches three.

702
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 1: What what did you power rated at pick? I just

703
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 1: I honestly didn't know what to really do with it.

704
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 1: Like I gave a little bit of a home field

705
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 1: advantage of this Patriots team, so that's why I I

706
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 1: almost made them minus one. But based off matchups, what

707
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:07,879
Speaker 1: what each team can do? They were they think it's

708
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:09,919
Speaker 1: gonna be good weather in the on the East coast.

709
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: Is this upcoming? How it's like, you know, Christmas is Saturday,

710
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 1: they play Sunday, e supposing it supposed to be a

711
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 1: nice day. Everything points to me taking the bills. But

712
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 1: it's so hard to do on a Tuesday, That's what

713
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: I mean. Like if there was no COVID, I'd be

714
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 1: all over this number right now. But to me, it's

715
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: kind of one of you have to wait, just because

716
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 1: both these teams it's it's so it's so close. It

717
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: really is a pick, like both these teams are just

718
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 1: so equal. Um, I just can't give it out right now.

719
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:39,240
Speaker 1: The Patriots have been one of your blind spots all season.

720
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 1: We just fucking won on the Colts against the Patriots.

721
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 1: Yeah once once, all right. We won Week one with

722
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,320
Speaker 1: Miami against them. We won with the Saints against them twice,

723
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 1: three times. Somebody slam child at Chad. I feel like

724
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 1: I was on the Colts as much as anybody. I

725
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 1: might have swayed you onto the Colts. You were becoming

726
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 1: like a mac Jones sycophant. That's not true, anyone. We

727
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 1: want on the Patriots against the Tennessee Titans, which I

728
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 1: had to beg you to take the New England minus

729
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 1: six against the Tennessee Titans. So I'm I'm all right

730
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 1: with this Patriots team. I haven't done terrible with them.

731
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:24,320
Speaker 1: I like the Bills in the spot too. The Holidays

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768
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Speaker 1: we want to hold off on this till Thursday. Los

769
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 1: Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings Rams are two and a

770
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 1: half point favorites. Right now, take the Rams like this,

771
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 1: this is my Simons says bet. But the problem, I

772
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 1: know the problem is COVID. I would love for people

773
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 1: to take this number now before the Rams do play,

774
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,399
Speaker 1: just in case they do blow out the Seattle team.

775
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 1: But I don't know what to do, just because it's

776
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 1: just there's so much unknowns, so much can change. But

777
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 1: from now until Sunday, so it's tough to say, but

778
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 1: we can mark it down. As my Simon says, be

779
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 1: very cowardly. I'm going to give you the opportunity to

780
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 1: change your mind on Thursday. Thank you. It's a lot

781
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 1: going on. It's gonna be a big public side too.

782
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 1: Like I sorry to cut you off, but I know

783
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 1: the Rams are gonna be a huge public side. But

784
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 1: to me, it's just crazy that numbers under three. Baltimore

785
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 1: Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens now two and a

786
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:38,399
Speaker 1: half point dogs on the road against the Bengals, who

787
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 1: if you recall the last time the Ravens played the Bengals,

788
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: we said, bet the Bengals future as to win the

789
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 1: a f C North now because they're gonna change, And

790
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 1: sure enough they beat the Ravens. The odds changed now

791
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,320
Speaker 1: their first place team. Yeah, there were plus a thousand

792
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:57,919
Speaker 1: when we said that. So it's if you've been waiting

793
00:39:57,960 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 1: to hedge, you can hedge now. You can let it

794
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:01,720
Speaker 1: ride if you believe in the Bengals of this matchup.

795
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 1: But again, you're gonna see a pattern here people. If

796
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 1: if this hits plus three, we take the Ravens every

797
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 1: single time, and this in a late December matchup, not

798
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 1: even going off the head coach discrepancy like hardball. Is

799
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 1: that much better of a head coach than well, we

800
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 1: have what we have with the Bengals. But to me,

801
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 1: this Ravens team, if they lose, they lose clothes. Okay,

802
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,439
Speaker 1: and you're getting a plus three number. We've been burned

803
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 1: by them with these numbers. Okay, the numbers matter in

804
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:32,839
Speaker 1: each matchup they've had. Even though they've lost these games,

805
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 1: they've been covering. So maybe I'll finally get burned by

806
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 1: finally going against the going with the Ravens team, but

807
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 1: I have to do it. If it's plus three in

808
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 1: this divisional matchup, I have to take it completely. Agree,

809
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 1: it's hard. It's hard, Like you look at this and think, like,

810
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 1: what's from our Jackson's status. They're losing all these defensive backs.

811
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 1: But when you talk about analytics, we talked about it

812
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 1: earlier in the show, Hardball plays it differently than say,

813
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 1: Brandon Staley does. We're Brandon Staley seems to be running

814
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 1: some kind of meta experiment about analytics. Hardball is actually

815
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,800
Speaker 1: playing the game of analytics. Soe he even even Hardball

816
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 1: sucked it up though, Like the first touchdown he got

817
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 1: when they were down fourteen, that's when you go for two,

818
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 1: not not the second touchdown, You go for it on

819
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 1: the first touchdown, because then if you missed the first touchdown,

820
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 1: then you go from the second touchdown and make it

821
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 1: a fourteen point game. So again, that's that's what I'm saying, Like,

822
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: it's it's so hard on handicap these games because these

823
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 1: coaches are smart, but they're fucking idiots at the same time.

824
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 1: It's it's just tough where it's like, yeah, hardball gets

825
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 1: the analytics, but he funked it up where it's like, no,

826
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,720
Speaker 1: the first touchdown, you go for two, not the second touchdown.

827
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 1: But again, whatever, I like how I try to make

828
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 1: a point and then you tell me how I'm completely wrong,

829
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,439
Speaker 1: but you're what you're saying is true though, like they're

830
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 1: more accepting of it, but it's just horriball in that instance,

831
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 1: messed it up. Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks Bears plus

832
00:41:56,719 --> 00:42:00,320
Speaker 1: seven at Seattle, keep it moving. Well, I'll take the

833
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 1: Bears and I'll lose money again because Matt Maggie is

834
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 1: an awful head coach. But the Bears are the worst

835
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: underdog team statistically ever under Matt Naggie. Like there's never

836
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 1: been a worst team at covering as an underdog than

837
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 1: they have been with Matt Maaggie. So I don't bet

838
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 1: this game. People. Yeah, there was some stat today like

839
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 1: three and twenty two was a dog of more than

840
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,960
Speaker 1: three and a half. He's a fucking easy disaster. I

841
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 1: feel so bad for Bears fans. Denver Broncos at Las

842
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders. Teddy's got a concussion. They broke our heart

843
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 1: on Sunday. God, I know, I know Teddy is not

844
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 1: coming back in such a great time to take Teddy.

845
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 1: Teddy covers as a dog on the road, so we'll

846
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 1: we'll pass. I'm almost positive they said, no matter what,

847
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 1: it's gonna be Drew lock Um this Sunday. But yeah,

848
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 1: after squeaking by with a Raiders money line, I don't

849
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 1: want to bet them again. I agree. These teams are

850
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 1: both the past for me right now. Pittsburgh Steelers at

851
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers are now ten point underdogs

852
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 1: either way. The Chiefs, Baby, I know, I knew that.

853
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 1: You would think I would be on Pittsburgh, but I'm not.

854
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 1: I love you, Mike Tomlin. I know it's December, but

855
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:12,720
Speaker 1: I'm not sucking down it. It's a fine line between,

856
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:16,800
Speaker 1: you know, drinking wine and squashing grades. This is the

857
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 1: This is the ra Rob Mike Tomlin spot drop it,

858
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 1: Mitchell ra ra Mike Tomlin spot get them ready to

859
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: take the fail every series. This is when you fade

860
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin off the home win as a dog. This

861
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:40,439
Speaker 1: will buy you by far my favorite unders of the week.

862
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 1: I love this under so much. I always bet the

863
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 1: unders anyway. With the Chiefs at home. But this Chief's

864
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 1: defense they again that Chargers game, they the Chargers doing

865
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:53,479
Speaker 1: ever they want. They're going up and down the field.

866
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:56,399
Speaker 1: That wasn't indoor game, the controlled environment. The Chiefs team

867
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 1: outdoors as just for some reason, really held offenses down.

868
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 1: So to me, this is a nice, nice spot taking

869
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 1: under in a favor, which is rare, usually like taking

870
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:07,000
Speaker 1: the dog in an under position. But to me, it's

871
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 1: such a big total, big spread. What is I think

872
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 1: I have to check. I think it was and a

873
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 1: half ten points. It's not worth as much when if

874
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 1: it was forty, maybe I'd be leaning more towards Pittsburgh.

875
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,000
Speaker 1: But there's enough wiggle room there that I like the

876
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:21,919
Speaker 1: Chiefs in this position. I am shocked. It's a big,

877
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 1: big number for a team that has a really good

878
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,320
Speaker 1: defense in the Steelers, and I think the Chiefs are overrated.

879
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean the Chiefs don't cover numbers like this.

880
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 1: It goes against everything we've said all year about the Chiefs.

881
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 1: It's gonna burn me chat. But I made the number

882
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 1: twelve and a half. It's ten. I think I'm getting

883
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 1: two and a half points of value. It's total on

884
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,919
Speaker 1: this game right now is h fourty and a half

885
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 1: yea wow. This is the opposite of every single thing

886
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 1: we've talked about on this game, on this podcast all

887
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 1: season long. Not at all. There's times we take big favorites.

888
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,719
Speaker 1: It's just very rare. It's stunning. It's stunning to me.

889
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 1: I know, you don't think the books. You know what

890
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:06,800
Speaker 1: they're doing. They're fucking sucking you in, buddy. Why wouldn't

891
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 1: they make this seven and a half eight and a half.

892
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 1: They would just get the same amount of money on

893
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,800
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh team as they would on the Chiefs. But

894
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 1: they're putting it all up there because they need people

895
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:20,920
Speaker 1: coming on Pittsburgh. Washington football team at Dallas Cowboys. Dallas

896
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:25,040
Speaker 1: Cowboys ten and a half point favorites. This not knowing

897
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 1: about tonight, assuming Taylor Heinek is playing, this should be

898
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 1: Simon says, get on the fucking Washington football team right now.

899
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 1: How can we though we don't know who's gonna be

900
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 1: back from COVID, So yeah, I'm with you. Their whole

901
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 1: defense is back healthy, their practice all week, and their

902
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: quarterbacks come back and they practice too. Love love Washington.

903
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 1: We don't Dallas has not looked right. Ever, since Dacks

904
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 1: come back from that injury, it just has not. I mean,

905
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:52,359
Speaker 1: they barely beat the Giants huste. What was that one

906
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 1: to six and one of them was a defensive touch on?

907
00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 1: Maybe I don't even remember, but I just remember thinking

908
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 1: that whole time. Giants should be winning this game, or

909
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:01,320
Speaker 1: at least covering. They just couldn't do it. Dallas's defense

910
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 1: is for real. They're all healthy right now. This is

911
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 1: another game where if I can't figure out a side

912
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 1: or to pick a side, I'll probably send up taking

913
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 1: the under in this game. Last game Monday Night Football,

914
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints. Miami is a three

915
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:29,359
Speaker 1: point underdog. Dude, dude, give me the fucking Dolphins. Here

916
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 1: the love right there with you. Love love this number.

917
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 1: I took it a three and a half. The fact

918
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:37,840
Speaker 1: of the money and the tickets are coming in on

919
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: the Saints and the numbers moved down to three. That's

920
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 1: that's best casing. That means other pro groups have hit

921
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 1: Miami as well. So I love this number as long

922
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,359
Speaker 1: as stays above one and a half, to which again

923
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:50,839
Speaker 1: I talked all the time too, is a key number.

924
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 1: I love Miami and I can see this being one

925
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 1: of our five. This makes no sense to me. No,

926
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 1: it's an overreaction to a Saints team that put up

927
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 1: nine points. Yeah, exactly what it is. We've got an

928
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:05,399
Speaker 1: interesting little lineup coming on here, because I mean we're

929
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 1: talking about potentially the Cards, maybe maybe the Line, maybe

930
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 1: the Falcons, maybe the Panthers, maybe the Bills. We'll see

931
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:16,800
Speaker 1: what happens with the Rams tonight. We might like that.

932
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 1: Maybe the Chiefs, which you love, like your enthusiasm was

933
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 1: a little overwhelming Miami. Wow, that's a lot. That's a lot.

934
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 1: Our foxhole is going to be the Panthers mine plus

935
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:33,400
Speaker 1: eleven against the Bucks. Scoot Row. Let it for me, buddy.

936
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.

937
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 1: Let's play roulette. You're clearly killing me, so talk to me.

938
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,840
Speaker 1: Screwch roulette. No brainer. We just talked about in Miami

939
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 1: plus Fuck you. I want to take the Dolphins, God

940
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 1: damn it, gotta gotta do it. I'll take the Chiefs. Wow,

941
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 1: look at you coming to a dark side. Yeah I was.

942
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 1: I was almost going to take the Cardinals. I Ll

943
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:07,359
Speaker 1: just say that's that's probably the most pro line this week.

944
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 1: Honestly the Cardinals line. That's what I think too, all right,

945
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:13,719
Speaker 1: I think we've covered it all. I think we've done

946
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 1: a whole show. We got in all the notes that

947
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell wanted us to get in about where to

948
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 1: find things and what we're doing for the rest of

949
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 1: the year. We got in our full slate, we got

950
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 1: in our foxel, we got in our assignment says Thursday.

951
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 1: We'll narrow it down. We'll do the money line parlay,

952
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 1: We'll do the big balls better the week. That's all

953
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 1: she wrote. This has been the favorites for the Volume

954
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:35,359
Speaker 1: podcast network. I am Chad Mellman. He is Simon Hunter.

955
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:39,000
Speaker 1: Download us on Apple Podcast and Spotify, wherever you get

956
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 1: your podcast, rate reviews, subscribe five star reviews, feedback as

957
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 1: a gift. We don't care what you say in there.

958
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 1: We are reading all of them. Also, please rate us

959
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:49,640
Speaker 1: on Spotify. Spotify came up with a big update. Rate

960
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 1: us on Spotify until Thursday. I Love you