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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew and Washington. It's great to have you

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Speaker 2: with us here on Bloomberg Radio Satellite radio Channel one

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Speaker 2: twenty one on YouTube, where you can find us by

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Speaker 2: searching Bloomberg Business News Live, and now on Bloomberg Originals,

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the most original political program on the radio.

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Speaker 2: We're going to do this every day from now and

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Speaker 2: it's a great honor to be on Bloomberg Originals. And

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Speaker 2: glad if you're finding us right now for the first

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Speaker 2: time that you're part of our conversation every day here

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Speaker 2: in Washington. How about the next one hundred days, Well,

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Speaker 2: we're in them now, and our friend Cliff Young at

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Speaker 2: IPSOS has been running numbers here and knowing that things

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Speaker 2: got a little bit deeper. The water's got a bit

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Speaker 2: deeper for President Trump. As I mentioned on Friday, with

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Speaker 2: that Moody's downgrade there are a lot of questions going

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Speaker 2: forward here, not only about tariff policy, but what happens

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Speaker 2: to tax policy and who's going to pay for it?

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Speaker 2: On Capitol Hill right, one big beautiful bill that could

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Speaker 2: add trillions to the debt and deficit if we don't

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Speaker 2: get the pay fors that many are asking for that

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Speaker 2: Moody's is looking for, along with y F, Fitch and

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Speaker 2: S ANDP. We heard from the Press Secretary Caroline Levitt

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Speaker 2: this morning and an early briefing at the White House.

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Speaker 2: Here's what you said.

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Speaker 3: The world has confidence in the United States of America

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Speaker 3: and our economy once again. Oil prices are dropping, gas

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Speaker 3: prices are dropping. The President has added nearly a half

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Speaker 3: million jobs to the American economy already, So there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of optimism in this economy. And the President disagrees

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Speaker 3: with that assessment.

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Speaker 2: Yes, cautious optimism. According to IPSOS, the next one hundred

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Speaker 2: days friction, uncertainty, but cautious optimism, writes Cliff Young, who's

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Speaker 2: with me right now, ipso's Public Affairs president for the US.

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Speaker 2: It's great to see you. Welcome back, as it's great

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Speaker 2: to be here job. You've got the benefit of a

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Speaker 2: slightly longer view than those of us who are in

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Speaker 2: each wrinkle as we wait for the headline on when

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Speaker 2: the phone call is going to end, and so forth.

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Speaker 2: Broadly speaking, despite all the stuff I just said, the

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Speaker 2: president's actually doing better in approval ratings than he was

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Speaker 2: weeks ago.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he's in a better place his if you look

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Speaker 4: at IPSIS numbers or the average of all the polling

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Speaker 4: firms out there, all the polling numbers, he's improved a

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Speaker 4: point or two since let's say the beginning of the month.

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Speaker 4: And I think that has a lot to do with

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Speaker 4: him stepping off the gas A bit interesting. He was

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Speaker 4: crering a lot of friction around the edges. He was

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Speaker 4: confronting conventions and norms. People don't like that. They're worried

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Speaker 4: obviously about potential inflation linked to tariffs and all that

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Speaker 4: has sort of tampered down A.

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Speaker 2: Bit interesting that this may have coincided with his pulling

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Speaker 2: back on China for a bit, right, we'll give that

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Speaker 2: a breather. Maybe an agreement in principle, whatever, We go

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Speaker 2: home thinking reciprocal tariffs under review. What happens though? When

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Speaker 2: that review ends, maybe some of this stuff kicks back in.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's going to be ultimately about whether there's negative impact.

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Speaker 5: In people's day to day lives.

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Speaker 4: Right now, it's all noise, it's news. It's not concrete, right,

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Speaker 4: and people are worried about that. Public opinion's worried about that,

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Speaker 4: but we really won't see the impact if there's going

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Speaker 4: to be an impact until it affects If it does

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Speaker 4: affect people's ability to make ends meet.

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Speaker 2: Give me your reality check on this Moody's headline, because

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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg that's a big deal. Ten years back, above

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Speaker 2: four point five percent, you say, oh my god, the

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Speaker 2: market's going to tank. It's not clearly, and I wonder

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Speaker 2: what people really think of this. Does the Moody's downgrade

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Speaker 2: to double a one mean anything to somebody who's trying

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Speaker 2: to figure out how to pay the bills this month?

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Speaker 5: Oh not at all. They don't know what it even is.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: Ultimately, these are things that elites and bankers and people

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Speaker 4: in Wall Street and people that run companies are worried about.

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Speaker 4: Less so about someone trying to make ends meat putting

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Speaker 4: food on the table. But ultimately it runs in part

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Speaker 4: counter to what we're seeing in public opinion. Like we

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Speaker 4: said before, we're in a period of lull. There is trepidation,

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Speaker 4: there is unease about the present, but there are argulommers

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Speaker 4: of hope looking forward for people.

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Speaker 2: I'm fascinated by the push and pull when it comes

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Speaker 2: to tariffs. Based on what you found, Americans do not

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Speaker 2: see the near term benefit of tariffs. Americans do, however,

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Speaker 2: see the long term benefits, but are split on whether

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Speaker 2: the pain is worth it. How do we rationalize that?

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Speaker 5: Well, they're worried about things today.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: Like I said before, there's a lot of trepidation and unease.

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Speaker 4: And it doesn't matter the poll, the question, the indicator.

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Speaker 4: We see it in a general sense. When we talk

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Speaker 4: about the potential benefit of tariff's generation of jobs, bring

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Speaker 4: manufacturing back to us, I'm a majority of Americans say yes,

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Speaker 4: I can see where tariffs make sense. I'm in favor

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Speaker 4: of that, but I'm not quite sure I want to

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Speaker 4: suffer the pain needed to get there.

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Speaker 2: Doesn't that say more about our society the way that

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Speaker 2: we look at things like, Hey, I know it's going

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Speaker 2: to pay off, but I'm not sure I'm actually willing

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Speaker 2: to pay it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think most people need to think in the

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Speaker 4: short term. They need to think about how to make

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Speaker 4: ends meet. They need to worry about how much money

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Speaker 4: is left over at the end of the month. And

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Speaker 4: that's just an indicator of that.

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Speaker 2: Incredible As we wait to hear from the President on

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Speaker 2: this phone call with Vladimir Putin, you find that Republicans

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Speaker 2: are still being seen stronger on immigration, on the economy,

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Speaker 2: on inflation, and yes, foreign policy. Are people paying attention

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Speaker 2: to wars on the other side of the world.

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Speaker 5: Not much.

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Speaker 4: I mean, they're really worried about immigration on the one hand,

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Speaker 4: the cost of living on the other, and Republicans are

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Speaker 4: strong on those points. Trumpet is strong on those points,

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Speaker 4: and they have been historically foreign policy less, so they

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Speaker 4: get good marks that as Republicans do. But people are

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Speaker 4: much less worried about what's going on in the Ukraine

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Speaker 4: or in the Middle East, and much more worried about

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Speaker 4: how to make ends meet.

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Speaker 2: Right, absolutely, And I guess we're going to be hearing

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Speaker 2: more about this now when it comes to messaging. There's

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Speaker 2: been a big question about the way this White House

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Speaker 2: is flooding the zone, as they say, I think you're

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Speaker 2: suggesting that maybe things are improving because the Zone isn't

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Speaker 2: quite so flooded the cadence that we've seen, but the

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Speaker 2: messaging around inflation, specifically talking about kids not being able

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Speaker 2: to have as many toys, is one that kind of

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Speaker 2: hung around the President's neck here Scott Bessett over the

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Speaker 2: weekend suggesting that maybe Walmart needs to eat some of this.

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Speaker 2: As the President said in a truth social post, it's

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Speaker 2: been impacting the soft data, as we say, consumer sentiment,

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Speaker 2: consumer expectations. We have yet to see it really creep

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Speaker 2: into the hard data. But you're a polster, you're an

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Speaker 2: expert on this. Do you have a sense of at

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Speaker 2: what point people lose patience the honeymoon period ends.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a lot of noise once again, and like

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Speaker 4: I said before, there's a pessimism about the president. We

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Speaker 4: have seen some sort of behavioral change among households. They've

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Speaker 4: cut some sort of non essential expendsures like travel, and

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Speaker 4: they are stockpiling on some essentials.

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Speaker 5: We've seen that.

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Speaker 4: But this is all, once again theoretical. This is about

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Speaker 4: the future that hasn't gotten here yet, hasn't arrived, and

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Speaker 4: it really will will be about whether it affects Americans'

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Speaker 4: ability to make ends meet, and we're not there yet.

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Speaker 2: Well, now to the comedy part of the program with

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Speaker 2: Cliff Young. Americans want the president to work with Congress

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Speaker 2: rather than issue executive orders. I'm not sure if they've

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Speaker 2: been paying attention, but that's not going to be the

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Speaker 2: plan coming out of this White House, is it. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I don't think we should take it literally. We should

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Speaker 4: take it sort of conceptually. In other words, Americans want

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Speaker 4: less friction. They want their leaders to file the rules.

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Speaker 4: They don't like it when they're thwarted a lot of

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Speaker 4: the a lot of that.

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Speaker 5: And that's why you know why he dropped in the numbers.

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Speaker 4: That's why he outstripped the historical average for the first

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Speaker 4: hundred days. He was at six point decline versus a

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Speaker 4: three point decline.

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Speaker 2: These are the doge executive actions.

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Speaker 4: And all of them all together, right, and like that's

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Speaker 4: what today, what we're seeing a bit, as you've already said, Joe,

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Speaker 4: is him stepping off the pedal a bit. I think

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Speaker 4: the numbers are improving a bit because there's less of

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Speaker 4: that friction of that contest going on in public opinions.

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Speaker 2: Mind, does it helped to see the president being presidential,

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Speaker 2: as they say, on a trip like he just took

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Speaker 2: to the Middle East. Not a heck of a lot

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Speaker 2: of news other than some investments in technology some of

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Speaker 2: the other things that he was talking about, but was

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Speaker 2: mainly a big photo op. They put a you know,

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Speaker 2: they put a music video together at the White House

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Speaker 2: to post this being seen with leaders, not just political leaders,

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Speaker 2: but business leaders out there doing things in a forum

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Speaker 2: that nobody else could do. Is there actually a benefit

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five to those kind of optics.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: On the margins, it's important to see our leaders pretty

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Speaker 4: jaded act, our president's act presidential.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: And I think this goes these sorts of initiatives' activities.

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Speaker 4: Actions go to seeing public opinion, public opinion tampered down

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Speaker 4: a bit.

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Speaker 5: You know, it won't have a huge impact, but it

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Speaker 5: does have an impact.

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Speaker 2: Point. This is going to start feeding into midterms. I

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Speaker 2: don't know when you start paying attention to that, but

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Speaker 2: you know, we've already got people talking about it here

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Speaker 2: on the air. We had the chair of the d

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Speaker 2: Triple C on just a couple of weeks ago talking

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Speaker 2: about strategy, talking about special elections where we're trying to

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Speaker 2: read tea leaves. Has this begun already or is it

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Speaker 2: too early.

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Speaker 5: Well, the season's begun, yeah, but probably starting too early.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't like this.

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Speaker 5: Look at one season.

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Speaker 4: No, we're far off still, you know, really November December

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Speaker 4: is when we begin to look. Listen, Typically the party

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Speaker 4: out of power does better in the mid terms. Normally

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Speaker 4: the party out of power, the Democrats in this case,

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Speaker 4: gain seats in the House, typically take back the House. Sure,

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Speaker 4: that's probably going to be the trend. At least the

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Speaker 4: Democrats probably will trend better. But let's see where we are,

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Speaker 4: especially with this illustration going into next.

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Speaker 2: Year, multiple lifetimes between now and then. But I'm always

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Speaker 2: pushing it here. What are your clients asking you about?

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Speaker 2: People should know that Cliff Young doesn't just sit here

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Speaker 2: and talk the guys like me. You're actually out interfacing

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Speaker 2: with clients on a granular level, running numbers like the

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Speaker 2: ones we're talking about. What's the most important question you're

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Speaker 2: getting at the moment?

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Speaker 4: You know, you know, they want to understand the contours

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Speaker 4: of the future. Not necessarily what's going to happen, nothing

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Speaker 4: easy about, but what can we expect?

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Speaker 5: Right?

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Speaker 4: I think you know, at this point, a lot of

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Speaker 4: our charge, a lot of our sort of objective or

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Speaker 4: my objective is to say, listen, things are not as

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Speaker 4: bad as you think they are. Trump is actually in

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Speaker 4: a better place than many believe. Public opinion is worried today,

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Speaker 4: but there's but there are glimmers of hope looking forward.

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Speaker 4: Just those two statements is a way to sort of

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Speaker 4: understand the contours of what will happen.

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Speaker 2: Interesting, that is only we're under the next hundred days.

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Speaker 2: As you pointed at the top of your deck, that's

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Speaker 2: only what one hundred days plus into the administration? Will

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Speaker 2: they start caring less at a certain point? When does

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Speaker 2: this get boring?

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Speaker 6: No?

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Speaker 4: I think with this administration never and this politician and

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Speaker 4: this president never.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that says a lot job security for Cliff Young.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, good for business.

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Speaker 2: It's good for business. So keep coming back to see us.

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Speaker 2: From ipso's Cliffield Live in Washington. I'm Joe Matthew. Thanks

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Speaker 2: for being with us here on Balance of Power. We've

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Speaker 2: got a lot more ahead, including our panel. They're back

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Speaker 2: together today, Jeanie Shanzeno and Rick Davis with us after

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Speaker 2: a late night on Capitol Hill. We're going to take

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Speaker 2: a look a little bit later on at the legislation

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Speaker 2: that's moving here on the so called one big Beautiful bill.

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Speaker 2: Also news about Joe Biden, as you likely heard over

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Speaker 2: the weekend, a cancer diagnosis that has Washington reacting today,

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Speaker 2: and we'll get some insights from our panel on this

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Speaker 2: going forward. Still waiting for the high sign on the

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Speaker 2: call Trump and Putin, with a lot of news likely

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Speaker 2: to flow from the White House after they get off

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Speaker 2: the horn together. Talking about Ukraine. We'll have much more

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Speaker 2: on that straight ahead here on the fastest show in politics.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg Radio, on YouTube

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Speaker 2: and now on Bloomberg Originals. This is Balance of Power

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Speaker 2: Only on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Flooburg Business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Big Question Marks on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. We are,

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Speaker 2: by the way, still waiting for a readout from the

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Speaker 2: White House on President Trump's call earlier today, with Vladimir

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Speaker 2: putin Moscow saying it went over two hours and that

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Speaker 2: it was a very useful call for Vladimir Putin. We'll

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Speaker 2: get the take here from the US side of that call,

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Speaker 2: hopefully shortly. But we're also waiting for news on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 2: Just hours after Yes, still only hours after the Budget

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Speaker 2: Committee in the House cleared what the President calls the

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Speaker 2: One Big Beautiful Bill. This is the tax and spend

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Speaker 2: bill that includes the Trump tax cuts. In the rest

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Speaker 2: several members of the House Freedom Caucus Kaylee, voted President,

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Speaker 2: and this is an issue because they also sit on

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Speaker 2: the Rules Committee could come up the works a lot

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Speaker 2: this week. One of them named chip Roy. We talk

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Speaker 2: about him a lot here. Republican member of Congress says

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Speaker 2: the legislation still does not yet meet the moment.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, so we could consider their present votes last night

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Speaker 7: as being an upgrade from their no votes on Friday,

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Speaker 7: But it is no guarantee that they'll be yes votes,

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Speaker 7: either in the Rules Committee in the case of chip

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Speaker 7: Roy or rov Norman, or if this thing actually gets

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Speaker 7: to the floor at the end of the week. Remembering

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Speaker 7: that Republicans, with their very narrow majority, can afford to

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Speaker 7: lose roughly three votes, and there are four who have

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Speaker 7: serious problems just on the conservative side not to mention

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Speaker 7: the salt members. That's right, the moderate members who have

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Speaker 7: issues with the salt cap and Medicaid cuts, respectively.

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Speaker 2: The more Speaker Johnson does to alleviate concerns of the

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Speaker 2: Freedom Caucus, the more likely he is to offend moderates

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Speaker 2: and get more no votes to worry about. So it's

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Speaker 2: a really delicate balancing act here, and it's one that

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Speaker 2: probably feels pretty familiar for this Speaker of the House.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, probably pretty familiar for our panel as well, as

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Speaker 7: they've seen a few of these. Let's turn to them.

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Speaker 7: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzay no Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick,

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Speaker 7: of course, republican strategist and Stone Court Capital partner. Genie

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Speaker 7: are democratic analyst and senior Democracy fellow at the Center

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Speaker 7: for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Rick, to

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Speaker 7: the point that Joe was just making about Johnson trying

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Speaker 7: to appease members of the Freedom Caucus. The more that

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Speaker 7: he gets pulled to the right, does that not only

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Speaker 7: risk that he can actually get this thing out of

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Speaker 7: the House, but even if he can and it goes

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Speaker 7: to the Senate, that everything he agrees to gets reversed.

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Speaker 7: By the Upper Chamber.

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Speaker 8: Well, we can now say that this is not Johnson's

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Speaker 8: first rodeo. We couldn't say that last year, but we

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Speaker 8: could say it this year. I mean, and he's been

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Speaker 8: pretty depth at, you know, sort of piecing together coalitions

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Speaker 8: with the Freedom Caucus and at the same time holding

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Speaker 8: his sort of left flank of the Republican Caucus in check.

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Speaker 8: I would say that the aggressive nature of the Salt Caucus,

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Speaker 8: probably through the cheerleading of Genie Shanzano, has really bolstered

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Speaker 8: their side of the equation. It probably made life a

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Speaker 8: little tougher for Johnson. But that being said, I think

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Speaker 8: really the biggest thing that's happened this week outside of

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Speaker 8: the vote last night, was the Senate basicly saying hey, look, guys,

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Speaker 8: we're not going for any of this stuff. You know,

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Speaker 8: we're gonna we're gonna change the Medicaid cuts. You can

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Speaker 8: fight about it all you want, but it's not gonna

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Speaker 8: matter once you get here. And that does let a

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Speaker 8: lot of air out of the tire. I mean, when

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Speaker 8: the House sees that and they're like, what am I

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Speaker 8: fighting over? You know this is just going to get changed.

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Speaker 8: So it does take a little wins out of the sales,

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Speaker 8: they'll be fighting hard to get what they want out

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Speaker 8: of these uh you know, cuts in the budget they're

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Speaker 8: trying to make, and they have made a promise not

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Speaker 8: to raise the government debt, which they're not going to

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Speaker 8: be able to keep. Uh there's just no way this

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Speaker 8: goes uh to term without adding to the deficit. So uh,

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Speaker 8: these guys are going to be disappointed. Now, the question

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Speaker 8: is how much noise are they going to make before

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Speaker 8: they're totally disappointed?

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Speaker 2: Boy. Well, I don't know about your cheerleading here, Jeannie,

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Speaker 2: but it's it's hard to deny the sticky situation that

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Speaker 2: Speaker Johnson is in. What role are the Salt Republicans,

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Speaker 2: let's say, the dellation from your state, specifically in New York,

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Speaker 2: potentially going to play to complicate this further because they

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Speaker 2: still do not have a deal on raising the cap.

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Speaker 6: They absolutely do not. And by the way, can I

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Speaker 6: just say, I know producer James never makes a mistake,

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Speaker 6: but when I got the email this morning saying the

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Speaker 6: meeting for rules was at one am, I thought, by James,

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Speaker 6: it's a got to be eleven one am, And of

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Speaker 6: course he was totally right. Never happens in terms of

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Speaker 6: you know, the problem is just what's been laid out,

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Speaker 6: which is, of course that the more Mike Johnson appeases

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Speaker 6: the far right the House Freedom Caucus, the more upset

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Speaker 6: the folks from my area get the Salt Caucus, as

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Speaker 6: you will. And then there's also the other folks, you know,

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Speaker 6: you were just talking about the medicaid folks who are concerned,

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Speaker 6: like Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania about cuts there. And then of

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Speaker 6: course the old story that once if this gets past

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Speaker 6: in the House, the Senate is going to take it, totally,

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Speaker 6: rewrite it and try it jam the House. And then

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Speaker 6: we're really going to have to see does this do

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Speaker 6: these folks buckle under pressure from Donald Trump. They've done

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Speaker 6: it before, they may do it again. But some of

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Speaker 6: this rhetoric about one bill, this is the big, beautiful bill,

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Speaker 6: it's all you get. It makes it seem like if

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Speaker 6: they don't get their piece of this in there, they're

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Speaker 6: not going to get anything. So this is really really

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Speaker 6: tough for the House. I think they are going to

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Speaker 6: get jammed by the Senate and how they react is

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Speaker 6: going to be the big question.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, it's going to be a fascinating conversation

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Speaker 2: on the late edition of Balance of Power. Kayley, We're

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Speaker 2: going to be spending some time with Andrew Clyde, the

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Speaker 2: Republican from Georgia, one of the four we've been talking

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Speaker 2: about here, who has great trouble with this bill. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if he's been getting phone calls from Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump or what actually is going to end up happening here.

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Speaker 2: Ask We will ask him, Rick, what changes between now

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Speaker 2: and the Rules Committee, if anything? And is this just

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Speaker 2: a silly exercise with everything that you just mentioned about

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Speaker 2: the Senate they're going to get together at one o'clock

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Speaker 2: in the morning to try to hammer something out in

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Speaker 2: rules when the Senate is sitting there waiting to change

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Speaker 2: the whole thing. Yeah, that's pretty much right.

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Speaker 8: Look, I mean, the Rules Committee has a tricky job

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Speaker 8: of piecing together all these different committee reports. So they'll

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Speaker 8: add it all up, they'll figure out what they got

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Speaker 8: to do to shave a little here and there, and

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Speaker 8: they'll tweak some things. Maybe they'll tweaked the snap program

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Speaker 8: coming out of agriculture. They'll tweet some more facets of

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Speaker 8: the tax cuts, specifically salt, to try and buy in

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Speaker 8: those votes and so yeah, the rules have actually got

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Speaker 8: quite a bit of juggling they've got to do to

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Speaker 8: get members comfortable enough, at least in the committee. And

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Speaker 8: as you point out, Kaylee, you've got Ralph Norman and

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Speaker 8: Roy chip Roy sitting on that committee. They weren't there

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Speaker 8: a year ago. They demanded to be put on there

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Speaker 8: as a part of the exchange of cooperation to get

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Speaker 8: Johnson as Speaker, and now he's going to really regret

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Speaker 8: having those rabble rousers roles committee.

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Speaker 7: Well, especially when those rabble rousers perhaps have more ammunition

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Speaker 7: from a ratings agency, Moodies, of course, downgrading the US

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Speaker 7: credit rating on Friday, taking a lot of US by surprise,

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Speaker 7: but of course it was the last rating agency standing

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Speaker 7: that still had the US rated the highest possible grade.

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Speaker 7: Of course, the downgrade in part blamed on successive administrations

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Speaker 7: in Congress not doing enough to address the deficit and

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Speaker 7: the interest caughts costs of the United States. This is

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Speaker 7: something that Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council,

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Speaker 7: was asked about by our own Tyler Kendall at the

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Speaker 7: White House earlier today, and this was his response.

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Speaker 9: I think that American bonds are the best buy in

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Speaker 9: the world, that they're going to be even better by

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Speaker 9: once all of our policies are replaced. And this downgrade

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Speaker 9: is something that happened because of the runaway spending of

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Speaker 9: the previous administration. They were the last agency to move,

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Speaker 9: and I don't think it should be a surprise to Marcus.

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Speaker 7: Like we saw with the Treasury Secretary Scott Besson on

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Speaker 7: Sunday Shows, Genie, he's looking at casting blame backwards. Bestin

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Speaker 7: suggested that Moody's is really a lagging indicator, that this

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Speaker 7: is about past behavior, not necessarily the behavior of this administration.

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Speaker 7: To what extent is that a makeable argument given that

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Speaker 7: this is active legislation we are talking about here that

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Speaker 7: can add trillions of dollars to the very deficit Moody's

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Speaker 7: is concerned about.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it was interesting. A few times on the Sunday Shows,

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Speaker 6: Bessen was saying, you know, look, Larry Summer says this.

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Speaker 6: We don't always agree, but it's a lagging indicator. And

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Speaker 6: the reality is is that there is so much blame

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Speaker 6: to go around for where we find ourselves in terms

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Speaker 6: of debt and deficit, and so yes, you can look

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Speaker 6: back at the previous administration. But what was the administration

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Speaker 6: before that? Oh it was Donald Trump's which added an

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Speaker 6: enormous amount to the deficit. And before that, you know,

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Speaker 6: Barack Obama. I mean, we have a deficit that has

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Speaker 6: now gotten us downgraded by all three And you know,

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Speaker 6: you frequently talked to people from the Committee Responsible Federal Budget.

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Speaker 6: They're talking about this bill alone adding three point three

437
00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 6: trillion to the debt, and you know it could even

438
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,879
Speaker 6: go up as far as five point two according to

439
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 6: their numbers. That is disastrous for our children and our grandchildren.

440
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 6: And Bessen and the rest of the folks in the

441
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 6: administration want to say, well, that's going to be offset

442
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,239
Speaker 6: because we're going to do better with energy. All of

443
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,719
Speaker 6: that may be true, and yet we still have a

444
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:32,120
Speaker 6: debt or deficit which is going to strangle our grandchildren.

445
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 6: And that is a result of irresponsible budgeting on both

446
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,879
Speaker 6: sides in an all administrations in the modern era. And

447
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,199
Speaker 6: of course we're sitting here today talking about potentially of

448
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 6: rules meeting at one am. What happened to regular order

449
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 6: and responsible budgeting? Our Congress is not up to it

450
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 6: across the board, Democrats and Republicans.

451
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 2: Kind of amazing seeing the lack of reaction in the

452
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:59,040
Speaker 2: markets here. Rick, it was hair on fire on Friday

453
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 2: night when the Moodies headline drop. Then we saw the

454
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 2: ten year at four and a half percent four point

455
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: five this morning, and now we've got the S and

456
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,400
Speaker 2: P five hundred up seven points. If Wall Street doesn't care,

457
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 2: will Washington?

458
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 8: Yeah, Washington has different priorities than just Wall Street. I

459
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 8: know everybody on Wall Street wants to believe that Washington

460
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 8: only reacts to their whims, But there's enough sophistication inside

461
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 8: the Beltway to say, hey, you know what, we got

462
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 8: to go home, We got to get reelected. And if

463
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 8: we add, like Jeanie said, trillions to the deficit, we're

464
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 8: going to have a lot of really upset constituents. And

465
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 8: on top of that, there are serious issues with some

466
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 8: of these entitlement programs that need to be reformed. And

467
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 8: there'll be some positive things happen in this effort, but

468
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 8: there'll be some damaging things too. And so you know,

469
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 8: those are the things that constituents that voters care about,

470
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,400
Speaker 8: and that these members are thinking about much more than

471
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 8: Wall Street right now. And I think there's a general

472
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 8: consensus that the underlying economy of the United States is sound.

473
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 8: That's why you see the robust kind of response today,

474
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 8: even on top of the moody saying we're not, you know,

475
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 8: dancing on the head of a pin. And so I

476
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,919
Speaker 8: think that these are the kind of things that members

477
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 8: are really upset about, is that they've got to go

478
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 8: home and defend some of this stuff. And it's very

479
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 8: hard for the many members of the Republican Caucus to

480
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 8: reconcile each other's ideological differences to be able to get

481
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 8: a concerted message through to the voters.

482
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

483
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

484
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business Up.

485
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

486
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,400
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

487
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 7: This is just breaking. After his two hour long phone

488
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,640
Speaker 7: call with the Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Trump says

489
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 7: he believes it went very well and that Russia and

490
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 7: Ukraine will immediate least start negotiations toward a ceasefire and

491
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 7: more importantly, in the president's words, an end to the war.

492
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 7: He said, the conditions for that will be negotiated between

493
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 7: the two parties, as it can only be because they

494
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 7: know the details of a negotiation that nobody else would

495
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 7: be aware of. He went on to say that he

496
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 7: has so informed vladimir's Lenski, the President of Ukraine, other

497
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 7: officials in Europe of this that these negotiations will begin immediately.

498
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 7: He also notes show that the Vatican has stated it

499
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 7: would be interested in hosting the negotiations. He ends the

500
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 7: post by saying, let the process begin.

501
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable and it doesn't sound unlike what we heard

502
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 2: from Moscow save a couple of lines here, for instance,

503
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: root causes of the war, as we heard from Vladimir Putin.

504
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 2: But apparently we are going to the Vatican peace talks,

505
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 2: which is something that we had discussed earlier in the process,

506
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,119
Speaker 2: having been floated by the Pope.

507
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 6: JD.

508
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 2: Vans the Vice President meeting with the Pope again over

509
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 2: the weekend. Here. A ceasefire, however, would need to begin

510
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 2: before any real talks could happen. So I'm not sure

511
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 2: how the order of events goes here, Kley, or whether

512
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 2: we'll see these two in the same ruins.

513
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,239
Speaker 7: Well, it seems that the President is suggesting negotiations need

514
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,680
Speaker 7: to happen to get to a c's fire. That could

515
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 7: be tough first place, and then you get to the

516
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,239
Speaker 7: end of the war in a second step. We'd love

517
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 7: to hear from our political panel on this. Of course,

518
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,400
Speaker 7: Rick Davis and Genie Schanzino are still with us. Rick,

519
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,159
Speaker 7: we know this as a White House and a president

520
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 7: specifically that it was growing increasingly frustrated with the lack

521
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 7: of progress in reaching a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.

522
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 7: Do you really believe he's gotten closer with this two

523
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:31,639
Speaker 7: hour phone call.

524
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 8: Well, he certainly indicates that he thinks there's a process

525
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 8: now that's going to kick off. What's really stark about

526
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 8: this is the fact that he doesn't consider the US

527
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,679
Speaker 8: or his presidency as part of that process. Here's a

528
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 8: guy who campaigned for two years saying on day one

529
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 8: he could resolve this conflict, and now, based on his

530
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 8: own tweet or whatever it's called, he's basically saying, oh,

531
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 8: you know, I can't get to know all the details

532
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 8: of the solution, so we're just going to leave it

533
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 8: up to you know, you, Crane and Russia. I don't

534
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 8: know who that actually benefits. I would be surprised of

535
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:08,199
Speaker 8: it benefits the US because it's good for us to

536
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 8: be in the middle of these things to ensure that

537
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 8: at the end of the process, we're keeping everybody honest

538
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 8: with their commitments. But look, I have to be an optimist.

539
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 8: This war has gone on too long. That's one thing

540
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 8: I agree with Donald Trump on. And whether or not

541
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 8: we can trust Russia at this stage after many disappointments,

542
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 8: we'll see, but we can be hopeful and maybe the

543
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 8: American Pope has enough magic to sprinkle on this process

544
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,880
Speaker 8: that we could get something really positive done.

545
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, Genie, the President writing in this post untruth Social,

546
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 2: Russia wants to do large scale trade with the United

547
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: States when this catastrophic blood bath is over, and I agree.

548
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 2: He says there's a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create

549
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,880
Speaker 2: massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is unlimited

550
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 2: in all caps, I guess I go back to the

551
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 2: same question I was asking, Well, we got Russia's readout

552
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 2: on all of this, are we going to be in

553
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 2: a world in which the invader is setting the terms

554
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,199
Speaker 2: of the ceasefire? You know?

555
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 6: Listening to what Donald Trump has written on Truth Social,

556
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 6: I too would like to be optimistic. Like Rick I

557
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:19,640
Speaker 6: hope that this works. But Donald Trump seems to believe

558
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 6: that he can attract people to these deals by talking

559
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 6: about the economy and all of those things, which are

560
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 6: critically important obviously to Russia and all of us. But

561
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 6: the reality is what Russia said right after Putin got

562
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 6: off this call. What did Putin say? He said, the

563
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 6: main thing is to eliminate the root cause. And what

564
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,479
Speaker 6: Putin sees as the root cause of this has nothing

565
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 6: to do really with the economy or jobs or transactions

566
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 6: like Donald Trump is talking about. For him, the root causes.

567
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 6: He believes profoundly that Ukraine is part of Russia. So

568
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 6: I'm not sure how this helps us get across that bridge,

569
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 6: so to speak. How do you appease Vladimir Putin when

570
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 6: it is utterly a non starter for Zelenski Ukraine the

571
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 6: West United States that he should get to move into

572
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 6: and keep large swaths of Ukraine. Even in the last

573
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 6: few hours talking about parts of Ukraine he hasn't even

574
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,919
Speaker 6: annexed yet. So I think Donald Trump is being a

575
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 6: bit optimistic here, and I'm not so sure they're going

576
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 6: to be able to get through. But hopefully I'm wrong

577
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 6: and they're able to get this eastfire going.

578
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 2: Going into overtime with our panel. Many thanks again to

579
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis in the Clutch. Now that

580
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 2: we have a White House readout on the meeting between

581
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 2: President Trump and Putin, roughly two hours in length. It

582
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 2: took place a short time ago, beginning around ten forty

583
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 2: am Washington time. And we want to add the voice

584
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 2: of Nick Wattams, who's been in the center of our

585
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 2: coverage here when it comes to national security. He runs

586
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 2: our US National Security team at Bloomberg. Nick. Now that

587
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 2: we've actually heard from both sides, how are we characterizing

588
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 2: this meeting? Is it one that was productive because we

589
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 2: don't have a ceasefire and it doesn't appear that the

590
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 2: President of the United States will be deeply involved in

591
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 2: these talks from.

592
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 10: Here right, I mean, I think for Europe and for

593
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 10: members of Congress who have supported sanctions, this is going

594
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 10: to be a disappointing readout in some ways because what

595
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 10: it looks like is President Trump is hopeful that there's

596
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,479
Speaker 10: going to be progress, that there is going to be

597
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 10: some sort of outcome, but so far Vladimir Putin hasn't

598
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 10: committed to anything. I mean, we've talked in the Truth

599
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 10: Social post about negotiations for a ceasefire starting immediately. There

600
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 10: have been conversations about a potential ceasefire going on for

601
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 10: weeks and weeks, and the idea of a ceasefire does

602
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 10: not seem to be all that difficult to do. You

603
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 10: just stop the fighting. So I think the initial impression

604
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 10: from some of the folks we've spoken to is that

605
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 10: you again see a situation where President Putin is looking

606
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 10: to string the US along, draw out a process, and

607
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 10: keep up the fighting in Ukraine.

608
00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 7: Well, and it's worth pointing out that we did see

609
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 7: talk in Turkey between Russian and Ukrainian officials, though they

610
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 7: were quite low level. Vladimir Putin, of course himself did

611
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 7: not show up. Zelensky was willing to meet with him,

612
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 7: but wasn't going to go if Putin did not attend.

613
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 7: So even as the president says Russia and Ukraine will

614
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 7: immediately start negotiations, how much does it matter, Nick, who

615
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 7: exactly it is that's showing up to.

616
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 10: The table, right, I mean, you know, a lot of

617
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 10: questions are about who they would send and who is

618
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 10: empowered to actually make commitments from the Russian side, for example,

619
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 10: But also what is the true interest and outcome from Russia?

620
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 10: Do they actually want to stop the fighting? I mean,

621
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 10: based on the events of the last couple of days. No,

622
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 10: it's a massive drone barrage in Kiev over the weekend,

623
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 10: very deadly, in one of the most intense in many months.

624
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 10: So they are determined, it looks like to continue the fighting.

625
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 10: I mean, the issue you see here is one where

626
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 10: Vladimir Putin it would almost be in his interest to

627
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 10: play for time because you have a lot of unresolved

628
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 10: questions about where Ukraine's munitions and weapons are going to

629
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 10: come from next. Are they going to come from the US?

630
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 10: Is Donald Trump willing to send more weaponry, push another

631
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 10: supplemental through Congress? You know, in a lot of ways,

632
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 10: Leberan Putin can say We're just gonna keep doing this

633
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 10: till you guys run out of weapons and munitions, and

634
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 10: then you're going to be in a weaker position to negotiate.

635
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 2: A lot of r Putin's got his own audience at home.

636
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,719
Speaker 2: To what extent does it embolden him or help him

637
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 2: politically domestically to appear to be stringing along the United States?

638
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 10: Well, I mean, I think it does help him. I mean,

639
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 10: to have this conversation with Donald Trump. You know, there's

640
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 10: a lot of concern. You know, what he really wants

641
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 10: is that one on one, mono mono equal time with

642
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 10: Donald Trump. And that's certainly what he gets here. And

643
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 10: then you see a truth from the President that at the.

644
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 2: Very least is not negative.

645
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 10: I mean, he's saying, basically, he's you know, let's get

646
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 10: this done. This is a big deal. You know, they're

647
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 10: on equal terms. There is no criticism or pressure or

648
00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 10: leverage being exacted on the Russians, and crucially no mention

649
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 10: of sanctions. So it doesn't feel from what the limited

650
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 10: readouts we've had so far, that President Putin is under

651
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 10: much pressure at all.

652
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 6: Yeah.

653
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:11,240
Speaker 7: In fact, President Trump describing the conversation the tenor of

654
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 7: the conversation as being excellent. The tone and spirit of

655
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 7: the conversation were excellent, he said, if it wasn't, I

656
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 7: would say so now rather than later read into that

657
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 7: how you will. But to your point, Nick on no

658
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 7: mention of sanctions in this post, is this a testament

659
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 7: to the threat of sanctions? What President Trump said he

660
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 7: was willing to impose. Caroline Lovett, the White House Press

661
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 7: Secretary today said everything would be on the table in

662
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 7: that regard if Russia isn't playing ball the way the

663
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 7: administration wants. Is this a testament to sanctioned threats working

664
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 7: or not?

665
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 5: Well?

666
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 10: I mean very initial impressions here, of course. But to

667
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 10: me it is a suggestion that President Trump does not

668
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 10: believe the sanctions threat is necessary. I mean, he seems

669
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 10: to be signaling that there's progress here, They're moving in

670
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 10: the right directions. He's not going to want to spoil

671
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 10: that with a potential announcement on sanctions. He's not saying

672
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 10: progress or else. He's just saying, hey, we're doing it.

673
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 10: These guys. Are these guys the process is launched, and

674
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 10: suggesting that his phone call with President Buten is the

675
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 10: reason why the process has begun, when, of course you

676
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 10: know they have. There have been conversations back and forth

677
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 10: via intermediaries and then directly as you mentioned in Turkey,

678
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 10: by Russian Ukraine, but so far no ceasefire.

679
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 2: What do you make of the Vatican involvement here? I

680
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 2: have to man, it smacks of the optics that you

681
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 2: would think Trump would really like. Sure, I mean, I

682
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 2: think it is the drama or the urgency around this

683
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 2: would what does it bring to the conversation.

684
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 10: I mean, you know, in the in the in the

685
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:46,400
Speaker 10: theory of throw spaghetti against a wall and see what sticks.

686
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 10: Why not? I mean, the UN has been essentially discredited

687
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 10: and frozen because of the clash and the Security Council

688
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 10: between the US and Russia. There is some concern about

689
00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 10: you know, if you if the US is the mediator,

690
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 10: who's are they really on? As evidenced by President Trump's truth.

691
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:08,720
Speaker 10: So if you have a truly disinterested slash impartial venue

692
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,280
Speaker 10: the Vatican, why not let's give it a shot, New Pope,

693
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 10: New Day. Maybe there is a way under which you

694
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 10: could get the parties in a room together and there

695
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 10: might be slightly less mistrust. I don't know. I mean,

696
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 10: it's just another notion that's out there that in the

697
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 10: past you wouldn't have even heard about. I think. But

698
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 10: in this sort of radical transparency where President Trump just

699
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 10: broadcasts everything from truth, now we have to contend with it.

700
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 10: I don't think anyone really has much idea what that

701
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 10: means right now.

702
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 7: Amazing And finally, Nick, President Trump gives a number of

703
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 7: specific shout outs in this post to people he spoke

704
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,479
Speaker 7: with after speaking with Vladimir Putin on a phone call,

705
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 7: Vladimer Zelensky, Ursula Vonderline, the President of the European Commission,

706
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 7: the presidents of France, the Prime Minister of Italy, the

707
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 7: Chancellor of Germany, the President of Finland. How important is

708
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,280
Speaker 7: that that everybody got together, all of the allies of Ukraine,

709
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 7: if you will, immediately after he got off the phone

710
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 7: with Russia.

711
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 10: Well, I mean, the question is what was actually in

712
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 10: those conversations and what was the tenor I mean, the

713
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:12,319
Speaker 10: European leaders are deeply uneasy with President Trump having this

714
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 10: one on one call with Vladimir Putin. They just say,

715
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 10: for one thing, there's no need and it would seem

716
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:20,280
Speaker 10: to serve Putin's purposes of splitting the US away from Europe.

717
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 10: So we're really going to need to see what came

718
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 10: from those calls. If President Trump went to those and said, Okay,

719
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 10: don't worry. If we don't see progress by such and

720
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 10: such a date, we're going to impose sanctions, well that's

721
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 10: one thing. If you went to them and said, go

722
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 10: stuff it. We're going for this thing. Progress is continuing,

723
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 10: but out a much different They're trying to telegraph unity

724
00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 10: there but it's hard to tell if that goes any

725
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 10: deeper than the surface.

726
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,919
Speaker 7: All Right, Nick Wadams, leading our national security team here

727
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 7: in Washington as we grapple with this breaking news.

728
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:51,439
Speaker 5: Thank you so much again.

729
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,919
Speaker 7: President Trump providing the readout of his two hour long

730
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 7: phone call with Vladimir Putin on True Social saying that

731
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 7: Russia and Ukraine will start cease fire talks immediately, describing

732
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:05,240
Speaker 7: as a process beginning even though the US had already

733
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 7: been trying to broke her a ceasefire granted through bilateral

734
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 7: negotiations separately with Russia and Ukraine rather than Russian Ukraine

735
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 7: directly talking. But four months now, really since he came

736
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 7: into office.

737
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 2: Well, that's right, And to your point, just last weekend,

738
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 2: there was a session that the President of Russia decided

739
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 2: not to send his top lieutenants to the Secretary of State.

740
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 2: Mark Rubio was there, Steve Whitkoff was there, and they

741
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 2: were dealing with much lower level officials at the table.

742
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 2: Questioning again the motivations and intentions coming from the Kremlin.

743
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 7: Well, we want to get a read on how Linda

744
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 7: Herring is viewing the Kremlin's intentions and motivations here with

745
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 7: what we're reading. She, of course a senior fellow with

746
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 7: the Atlanta Council's Eurasia Center and is one of the

747
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 7: experts we love speaking with on the war in Ukraine, specifically, Melinda.

748
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 7: Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV Radio

749
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 7: and now Bloomberg Originals. I do wonder what's going through

750
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 7: your head as we look at the words of President

751
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 7: Trump that negotiations toward a ceasfire and an end of

752
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 7: the war will start immediately. Does that fill you with

753
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 7: confidence or skepticism?

754
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 11: Hey, Kayley, So no, it does not fill me with confidence.

755
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 11: And I think it's important to not just look at

756
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,800
Speaker 11: what Trump said, but also to look at what Putin's saying.

757
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 11: So let's take a pause for a moment. Putin has

758
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 11: grabbed the microphone and he's talking about a memorandum which

759
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 11: will outline all the conditions and then maybe there'll be

760
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 11: a ceasefire. So I don't have a lot of confidence

761
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:28,839
Speaker 11: that this is going anywhere. The Europeans threatened Putin a

762
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 11: week ago and said if he didn't agree to a

763
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 11: thirty day ceasefire that there would be massive sanctions, and

764
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 11: there was nothing there, So I think this may be

765
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 11: a lot of hot air.

766
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 2: Yet again, well, you could look at this, I'm sure

767
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 2: a lot of different ways. Melinda, were waiting for an

768
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 2: official readout from the White House, and I don't suspect

769
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,400
Speaker 2: it'll disagree with what you heard from President Trump. Slightly

770
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 2: different though than what we did hear from the Kremlin.

771
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 2: And when you hear Vladimir Putin talking about getting down

772
00:37:55,800 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 2: to the roots of the invasion, the roots of the conflict,

773
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 2: what does that say to you? And is it possible

774
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 2: to have negotiations while the fighting continues.

775
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 11: Joe, that's really the question. So Russian Russian demands haven't

776
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 11: changed over the last three years, and the negotiations broke

777
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 11: down in Istanbul on Friday because Russia went back to

778
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 11: its its demands and this time it said we must

779
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 11: have not only Crimea, but four of those oblasts in

780
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:29,760
Speaker 11: eastern Ukraine. And they don't completely control those Ukrainian oblasts,

781
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 11: and the Ukrainian sets stuff it. So it's it's hard

782
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 11: to see that this is this discussion is going to

783
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 11: move anywhere. It's good that the Vaticans involved, it's good

784
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 11: that the Europeans and and the the and the Americans

785
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:45,959
Speaker 11: are you know, working together. But when when Putin talks

786
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 11: about UH, when he talks about intent, he means NATO,

787
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 11: and he's blaming Ukraine for for for for insisting on

788
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 11: sovereignty as the cause of the war. That's what this

789
00:38:58,920 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 11: coded language is.

790
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 7: Well, Melinda, to your point about Russia wanting the recognition

791
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 7: of Ukrainian territory as its own despite the fact that

792
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 7: it does not have many of these areas in its

793
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 7: full control. Does Russia right now have the military advantage

794
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 7: to be able to get those areas under control. I

795
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 7: just wonder the strength of each side's position here if

796
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 7: they are indeed about to join together at one table

797
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:24,040
Speaker 7: for these talks.

798
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 11: So right now, you know that Russia controls Crimea, it

799
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 11: illegally annexed that province, But in terms of those four

800
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 11: other oblasts, they control about a twenty percent of Ukraine,

801
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 11: and it depends on the oblast. Russia does have the

802
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 11: momentum on its side, but it's very slow going. If

803
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 11: you look at the Institute for the Study of War's report,

804
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 11: you know it's very very small progress. The Ukrainians are

805
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,879
Speaker 11: holding the front with drones, but there is an expectation

806
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,720
Speaker 11: that the Russians are going to make a push this summer,

807
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 11: and the expectation from the Russian side is that they're

808
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 11: going to be able to take all four of those

809
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 11: provinces by the end of the year. I think that

810
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 11: may be an overstatement, but that's the Russian expectation.

811
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,799
Speaker 2: Well, then it sounds like you can't negotiate when you're

812
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 2: in the throes of fighting. We just saw one of

813
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 2: the biggest drone barrages against Kiev of the war so far,

814
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 2: just in the last twenty four hours. Melinda, at what

815
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 2: point does the White House lose patience for this?

816
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 11: That's right, Joe. So over the weekend Russia hit Ukraine

817
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 11: with two hundred and seventy three drones across the country

818
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 11: and they want to increase that number. They're trying to

819
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 11: overwhelm the Ukrainian's air interceptor system, their air defense system.

820
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 11: But you can't negotiate in an ongoing war. So we're

821
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:46,399
Speaker 11: all looking for the ceasefire. President Trump has been great

822
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 11: on this. He called for a thirty day ceasefire. He's

823
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,399
Speaker 11: been calling for that for weeks now, and Putin won't

824
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 11: agree to it. So I really encourage our viewers to

825
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 11: keep your eye on the ceasefire. Part of this. If

826
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 11: he doesn't agree to a ceasefire, there's no going to

827
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 11: be any real negotiations. And we see him again stalling

828
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 11: for time and talking about he wants to get into

829
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 11: these weedy details, Joe, so that he can delay the ceasefire.

830
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 11: And let's go back to Easter. He demanded a three

831
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:14,839
Speaker 11: day ceasefire right after Easter when he was having this

832
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 11: big May Day parade, and he can he can call

833
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 11: his troops off, it's up to him. So when he

834
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 11: starts to get weedy, it means that he doesn't want

835
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 11: to do something.

836
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 6: Well.

837
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 7: And when we consider even just the prospect of a

838
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 7: ceasefire beginning, Melinda, what are the enforcement mechanisms or the

839
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 7: keep what keeps both sides honest on maintaining that ceasefire?

840
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 7: If it's also just the two of them at the

841
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 7: negotiating table versus having some sort of mediator, what would

842
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:43,760
Speaker 7: guarantee that it holds.

843
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 11: That's a great question.

844
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 6: In this case.

845
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 11: You need an external mediator, and we don't know who

846
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:52,839
Speaker 11: that would be. It can't be the OSSE because both

847
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 11: Ukraine and Russia are party to the OSSE, So we're

848
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 11: going to need some kind of neutral mediator to make

849
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 11: sure sure that once ceasefire is in place, it can

850
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 11: be observed by outsiders, and that the rules of the

851
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,399
Speaker 11: negotiations are very clear. So in this case, we haven't

852
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 11: seen the details, and I'm not sure who could do

853
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:13,760
Speaker 11: that job capably.

854
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 2: The President writes Melinda. The Vatican, as represented by the Pope,

855
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:22,399
Speaker 2: has stated it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations,

856
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:24,800
Speaker 2: or we to believe that the Vatican would be involved

857
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 2: on any level of mediation here what would that mean

858
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 2: for talks?

859
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 11: So the Vatican has hosts offered to host negotiations, and

860
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 11: the new Pope has feels very different Joe than the

861
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 11: previous pope on Ukraine. He's been clear that Ukraine is

862
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 11: the victim and he you know both. There are quite

863
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 11: a few Roman Catholics in the Trump administration, so I

864
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:48,759
Speaker 11: think that sort of appeals to them. And we've seen

865
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 11: Zelenski also do his big meeting with Trump there at

866
00:42:52,200 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 11: the Vatican, So I think this is a good sign

867
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 11: that this could be one of the potential places where

868
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:02,319
Speaker 11: the parties can meet into discus, discuss their friction. But

869
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 11: you know, TBD, everyone wants to host these negotiations. Turkey

870
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Speaker 11: would love to. Cutter would love to. You know, everyone

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Speaker 11: wants credit for the end of the war, so I

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Speaker 11: think we're gonna have to stay tuned with that one

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Speaker 11: as well.

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Speaker 2: Well. Linda, it's great to have you with us. Melenda Harring,

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Speaker 2: as we learned some of the details of this meeting

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Speaker 2: between the two presidents, senior fellow with the Atlantic Councils

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Speaker 2: Eurasia Center, we should note, Kayley, that the truth social

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00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 2: post that we've been describing and reading from by President

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Speaker 2: Trump was sent out by the White House, so we'll

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Speaker 2: call that our official statement. Thanks for listening to the

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00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 2: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you

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00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 2: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

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00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:47,400
Speaker 2: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

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Speaker 2: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.