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Speaker 1: And walk theme in Late Kick is Live.

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Speaker 2: It is Tuesday Night, September twenty eight, the year of

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Speaker 2: Our Lord, twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 1: Barely a voice, but I.

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Speaker 2: Got to suck it up because we got a jam

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Speaker 2: packed show.

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Speaker 1: You can make the argument it's the.

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Speaker 2: Biggest week so far in the college football season, and

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Speaker 2: then Week six is gonna come along and it's gonna

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Speaker 2: punt Week five.

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Speaker 1: But over the next two weeks.

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Speaker 2: I put these graphics out courtesy of our own Ted

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Speaker 2: Hymen on Twitter yesterday. What a glorious fourteen day stretch

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Speaker 2: really like a seven day stretch if you think about

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Speaker 2: the math that we have upon us, and I saw

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Speaker 2: one of you say today, and you're absolutely right. You

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Speaker 2: can tell it to a renaissance season, not only because

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Speaker 2: all these favorites are falling, not only because we've had

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Speaker 2: a record number of AP Top twenty five teams fall.

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Speaker 2: No one out there, or hardly anyone out there, is

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Speaker 2: talking about the playoff, and that's a very good thing.

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Speaker 2: That's the way it always should be. But we'll take

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Speaker 2: it when we can get it. That's a very good thing.

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Speaker 2: As you know, it is a jam pack Tuesday. We

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Speaker 2: have got predictions wall to Wall for Week five. Tonight,

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Speaker 2: We're gonna hit Ole, Miss Bama. We're gonna hit Arkansas, Georgia,

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Speaker 2: we are absolutely gonna hit Notre Dame taking on Cincinnati.

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Speaker 2: I've got a list of games here that we're not

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Speaker 2: even gonna be able to get to tonight, that I

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Speaker 2: will get to by Thursday.

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Speaker 1: That will just blow your mind.

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Speaker 2: If you don't believe me that this is the biggest

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Speaker 2: weekend so far, I'll prove it to you in just

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Speaker 2: a second. I also have a brand new JP poll

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Speaker 2: for you tonight. Huge movement, the biggest single mover that

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Speaker 2: we'll probably see all year, and it's a rising team,

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Speaker 2: the biggest one we'll probably see all year on tonight's poll.

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Speaker 2: And I've got two more added best bets for you.

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Speaker 2: So we have got a loaded show. You've got to

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Speaker 2: make sure you're following on Twitter and Instagram. At Late

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Speaker 2: Kick Josh, we put out two more best bets today.

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Speaker 2: I do not know if those lines have moved, but

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Speaker 2: as you know, they often do, so make sure you're

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Speaker 2: following there. Listen to this list of games before we

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Speaker 2: dive into tonight. This is the list of games I

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Speaker 2: cannot get to tonight. Keep the show under three hours.

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Speaker 2: Iowa Maryland. That is an undefeated against undefeated on a

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Speaker 2: Friday night. It's a standalone Friday game. Texas is favored

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Speaker 2: by about four or four and a half at TCU.

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Speaker 2: Forget about last week. Just please forget about last week.

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Speaker 2: It's only going to lead you into trouble if you're

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Speaker 2: betting that game. Michigan at Wisconsin. Oklahoma on the road

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Speaker 2: against Kansas State. We've got Florida on the road against Kentucky,

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Speaker 2: Baylor and Oklahoma State. That's a couple of undefeateds. Indiana

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Speaker 2: is at Penn State. Huge revenge spot there. Auburn's headed

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Speaker 2: to LSU. That line is under four. Those are the

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Speaker 2: games we can't get to tonight, and so think about

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Speaker 2: all we're about to get to. Hey, I got some

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Speaker 2: good news for you as we dive into the first prediction.

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Speaker 2: I was messing around on the internet last night, but

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Speaker 2: in a pure clean way, and I was looking at

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Speaker 2: how our podcast is performing.

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Speaker 1: And I was stunned.

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Speaker 2: I did not know this because I don't check every

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Speaker 2: single week, but I chose to check last night. Do

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Speaker 2: you know we have a top fifteen podcast in all

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Speaker 2: of the world when it comes to football, NFL or college.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm not talking about what you're watching on YouTube

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Speaker 2: right now. I'm talking about purely podcast, the Late Kick podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's top fifteen in football, it's top seventy in all

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Speaker 2: of sports. As you guys know, that's our secondary platform,

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Speaker 2: that's not even our primary platform. Those are bonkers numbers

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Speaker 2: because we have zero dollars being pumped into promoting this.

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Speaker 2: I mean none, as you know. So thank you for that.

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Speaker 2: That was a huge surprise last night.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for that. I started texting some of the

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Speaker 1: high level.

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Speaker 2: Mustaches here and said, excuse me, you need to be

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Speaker 2: aware of this.

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Speaker 1: Send us more resources. Thank you.

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Speaker 2: So the test balloon has been sent out. We'll see

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Speaker 2: what they send us. Okay, let's dive in. I was

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Speaker 2: talking to our buddies, who can sometimes be jerks but

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Speaker 2: are normally wonderful people over at college Football Nerds. They

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Speaker 2: put out their previews ridiculously early.

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Speaker 1: I don't even know how they do it that early.

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Speaker 2: But I was talking to them today about the traffic

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Speaker 2: that they've seen on their Arkansas Georgia video versus their

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Speaker 2: old Miss Alabama video, and they were very surprised about

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Speaker 2: the fact that the Arkansas Georgia video had just gone

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Speaker 2: out of this world, and it made me think, should

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Speaker 2: we reconfigure the show tonight? But it was already too late.

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Speaker 2: I didn't want to put that on Jesse's lap this

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Speaker 2: late in the game. So we were gonna do all

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Speaker 2: the games. But we're going to start with the game

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Speaker 2: that we're going to be at with the Renaissance Tour

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Speaker 2: this Saturday, Ole miss at Alabama PAMA favored.

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Speaker 1: By what not?

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Speaker 2: Twenty fourteen and a half. We will be in the

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Speaker 2: house at Bryant Denny Stadium. This is the three thirty Eastern,

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Speaker 2: two thirty local kick on CBS. Do you remember this

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Speaker 2: game last year? Yeah, you probably do.

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Speaker 1: Perception reality, it poses a very interesting picture for how

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Speaker 1: this year's game may play up. Which proposition?

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Speaker 2: If I were to read these two propositions to you,

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Speaker 2: which of these scares you more if you had to

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Speaker 2: face it? Would you rather face going into Bryant Denny

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Speaker 2: Stadium a crowd that is going to absolutely be fired

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Speaker 2: up and facing a Nick Saban team that's had you circled,

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Speaker 2: so you're gonna get their best shot. In other words,

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Speaker 2: would you rather face that or would you rather deal

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Speaker 2: with the proposition facing Lane kiffenolute labeling you his super

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Speaker 2: Bowl and having two weeks to prepare for you with

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Speaker 2: a complete nothing to lose mentality, operating the same way

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Speaker 2: an elite Xbox gamer would call plays if they ever

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Speaker 2: got on a sideline, which would you rather face?

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Speaker 1: What would concern you? More so the perception reality thing.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes it matters, sometimes they sync up, sometimes they don't.

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Speaker 2: But the twenty twenty game, I think a lot of

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Speaker 2: people are viewing this against the backdrop of twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: and with I don't know good reason, but with reason

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Speaker 2: that makes a lot of sense because this was a

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Speaker 2: game where Obama got pushed last year, sixty two to

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Speaker 2: forty eight was the final. But when you think about

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Speaker 2: the game from last year and you think about how

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Speaker 2: old Miss did it, what comes to your mind? And

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Speaker 2: I think what comes to a lot of your minds

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Speaker 2: is what normally comes to the mind of anyone who's

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Speaker 2: thinking about Lanekiffen ole Miss offense, and that is just

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Speaker 2: bombing away deep ball after deep ball, elite passing attack

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Speaker 2: probably carved Alabama up. What if I told you that

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Speaker 2: last year, en route to forty eight points against Alabama,

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Speaker 2: Ole Miss threw the ball twenty nine times, and they

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Speaker 2: ran the ball fifty seven times twenty nine to fifty

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Speaker 2: seven passed to run. They ran it for two hundred

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Speaker 2: and sixty eight yards. The thing that stood out to

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Speaker 2: me the most in this game last year as it

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Speaker 2: related to Old Missus offense, was how easy yards on

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Speaker 2: the ground came. I said at the time. I'll say

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Speaker 2: it again. I thought Lane Kiffin was very, very surprised

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Speaker 2: at how easy they were able to run the ball,

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Speaker 2: because I thought what their approach going into the game

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Speaker 2: was going to be heavily relying on is probably a

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Speaker 2: two to one pass to run ratio, and I thought

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Speaker 2: they were going to give some token looks in the

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Speaker 2: run game, but they fully expected to be stimy at

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Speaker 2: the line of scrimmage, and then they weren't. Not only

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Speaker 2: were they not, they started ripping off Chunk Run after

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Speaker 2: Chunk Run. Chunk Run could be like a punk rock band,

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Speaker 2: but they were successful. It never stopped. They were successful

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Speaker 2: all night long. Bama had over thirty missed tackles in

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Speaker 2: the game. It was not exactly a clinic of epic

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Speaker 2: proportions for Pete Golding and Nick Saban and the defense,

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Speaker 2: but there were some crazy things that happened in this

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Speaker 2: game last year. And the reason I am heavily leaning

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Speaker 2: on referencing last year, it's because I think a lot

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Speaker 2: of this ties into.

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Speaker 1: This year's game.

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Speaker 2: They're running backs and tight ends at Old Miss. That's

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Speaker 2: how they did it last year. And let me tell

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Speaker 2: you how far that statement goes. Keep in mind, they

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Speaker 2: scored forty eight. They had over six hundred yards total offense.

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Speaker 2: Alabama's top two corners in this game last year gave

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Speaker 2: up a combined one pass for eleven yards at least

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Speaker 2: one pass completion.

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Speaker 1: How does that happen?

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Speaker 2: How do you have the top two corners on your

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Speaker 2: defense combined to give up one reception for eleven yards

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Speaker 2: and you still give up forty eight. Well, I'm going

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Speaker 2: to tell you how, friends, because Ole Miss had two

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Speaker 2: running backs and a tight end combined for four hundred.

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Speaker 1: And sixty two yards and six touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: So they found what we like to call matchup advantages,

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Speaker 2: and they took advantage of them. Like Lionel Ritchie. It

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Speaker 2: was an all night long sort of thing. That's not

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Speaker 2: even the wildest stat from this game last year.

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Speaker 1: Though.

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Speaker 2: The wildest stat from this game last year, I tweeted

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Speaker 2: this out about an hour ago, was also the wildest

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Speaker 2: stat from anywhere in twenty twenty college football. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: read this and I'm gonna do it twice because the

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Speaker 2: first time is going to sound like I misspoke, but

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Speaker 2: I didn't. Alabama gained seven hundred and twenty three of

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Speaker 2: seven hundred and sixty four possible yards. That's not a

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Speaker 2: stat you ever read, right, That's not a stat that

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Speaker 2: you ever bothered talking about. Ole Miss prevented forty one

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Speaker 2: total yards in the game. What that means is Bama,

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Speaker 2: I think, had eleven possessions. They punted on the ole

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Speaker 2: Miss forty yard line, once, they got stopped on downs

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Speaker 2: at the one yard line, once they scored a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Every other drive they got like ninety two percent of

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Speaker 2: total possible yards in the game, which, as I said

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Speaker 2: at the time and will reiterate, is as close to

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Speaker 2: playing against air as you'll ever come in an SEC

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Speaker 2: football game. I mean, they that's mind boggling. So what

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Speaker 2: does that mean for this year? Well, I think ole

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Speaker 2: Miss and Lane Kiffin look at it and they say,

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Speaker 2: we will absolutely.

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Speaker 1: Go right back to that.

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Speaker 2: Well, because if you look at Bama right now, well

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Speaker 2: they've got Josh job or Jalen Armor Davis like they've

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Speaker 2: got some good pieces at corner. Where they've been vulnerable

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Speaker 2: is it linebacker where they've lacked being assignment sound and

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Speaker 2: gap sound is at linebacker. And I'm not saying they

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Speaker 2: don't possess the potential to be that. I'm saying they

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Speaker 2: haven't been that so far this year. There have been

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Speaker 2: disappointing times for them at safety as well. Match up,

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Speaker 2: match up, matchup, So that's what Lane Kiffin's looking at

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Speaker 2: right now. The big question is do those matchups exist,

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Speaker 2: because that's where the game will be won or lost,

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Speaker 2: as it often is with a Lane Kiffin led team.

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Speaker 2: But the external factors that really didn't exist last year

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Speaker 2: I think will matter here. The first is something is

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Speaker 2: expected of Old Miss now it wasn't last year. Number Two,

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Speaker 2: you've got the road environment to deal with and I

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Speaker 2: think it will be a factor here. And number three,

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Speaker 2: I think that Bama didn't do do anything particularly well

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Speaker 2: defensively last year. This year because of the pass rush

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Speaker 2: that they feature, what I do think is they can

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Speaker 2: force a whole lot more third and long situations which

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Speaker 2: lead to some inevitable fourth downs. And I wouldn't be

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Speaker 2: surprised early on in this game if Lane Kiffin's forced

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Speaker 2: into some very very high risk type coaching decisions that

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Speaker 2: he knows he has to make. I'm talking about some

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Speaker 2: fourth and two's at the fifty yard line, stuff like that.

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Speaker 2: I think we'll see some of those before the half,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's a coin flip either way. It

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Speaker 2: will have a wild varying degree of outcome on the

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Speaker 2: overall result in the second half and beyond.

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Speaker 1: Beyond would be overtime.

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Speaker 2: But you know what I mean, Like that stuff, if

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Speaker 2: you get stopped and you give it to him on

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Speaker 2: the fifty versus you convert, and then five plays later

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Speaker 2: you score. Not only do you take a possession away

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Speaker 2: from them, you put seven on the board. That could

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Speaker 2: have a three touchdown swing over the course of the

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Speaker 2: rest of the game if you extrapolated. I cannot overstate

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Speaker 2: enough how wide the variance is in a game like this.

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Speaker 2: It's sort of the anti Auburn Penn State. When we

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Speaker 2: were at the Auburn Penn State game a couple of

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Speaker 2: weeks ago, if you were watching on TV, you were

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Speaker 2: watching and it felt like they could play until Wednesday

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Speaker 2: and no team would ever take a three score lead,

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Speaker 2: Whereas in this game, you could tell me Bama wins

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Speaker 2: it fifty to twenty and I would not be shocked.

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Speaker 2: You could tell me ole Miss wins at forty two

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Speaker 2: to thirty eight, and I would not be overly shocked.

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Speaker 2: Either of those results could very well come to fruition Saturday,

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Speaker 2: and I would be probably equal parts surprised at either one.

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Speaker 2: What I am interested in as we get ready to

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Speaker 2: look at what the model thinks and I'll give you

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Speaker 2: my pick on this game, what I am interested in

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Speaker 2: is we have not seen so far this year one

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Speaker 2: of those classic quarterback duels where one side has to

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Speaker 2: keep answering the other. We may not see it here,

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Speaker 2: but we could because this is the first time that

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Speaker 2: if we were, you know, lining up the quarterbacks in

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Speaker 2: America and you were labeling a top five, I think

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Speaker 2: this is a top five quarterback matchup right now, and

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Speaker 2: you could see it as both defenses and both offenses

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Speaker 2: settle into the flow of the game. You could see

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Speaker 2: some point trading, and you could see Matt Carrall continue

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Speaker 2: to have to answer the bell or Bryce Young continue

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Speaker 2: to have to answer the bell, at which point that

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Speaker 2: becomes very entertaining, but boy, it becomes a nightmare for

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Speaker 2: defensive coordinator. So Jesse, let's take a look at what

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Speaker 2: the model thinks, and let's take a look at the

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Speaker 2: very latest number out of Vegas. The latest number has

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Speaker 2: kind of come back down closer to two touchdowns as

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Speaker 2: of tonight, and we're doing the show on Tuesday night.

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Speaker 1: Bama's a fourteen and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 2: The model was at sixteen and a half and is

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Speaker 2: at sixteen and a half for us, So we think

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Speaker 2: the line was right a couple of days ago. And

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Speaker 2: there's been some Old Miss money.

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Speaker 1: Come in. Let me tell you where I land on this.

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Speaker 1: There is a feeling.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how much validity I give it because

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Speaker 2: I can't prove to you anything. There is a feeling

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Speaker 2: that amongst a lot of people in the coaching community,

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Speaker 2: Old Miss seemed to be able to predict with a

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Speaker 2: little bit too high a degree of certainty, what was

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Speaker 2: coming from Alabama last year. I'm saying this very carefully,

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Speaker 2: kind of lawyer speak. You can read between the lines.

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Speaker 2: If that's not true, forget about it. If it is true,

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Speaker 2: you'll know early on, because if it is true, then

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Speaker 2: this Ole Miss offense will look a whole lot more

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Speaker 2: like they did against Barry Odom in Arkansas than they

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Speaker 2: did against Pete Golding and Nick Saban and Alabama last year.

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Speaker 2: What I think is gonna happen is We're gonna have

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Speaker 2: one hundred versions of this game and I'm putting my

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Speaker 2: quarter in and the grab claw machine goes down. The

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Speaker 2: particular version of this game that I think we see

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Speaker 2: Saturday is one where Bama ends up winning by over

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Speaker 2: three touchdowns. So I'm gonna take Bama to win, and

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Bama to cover. Knowing full well I

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Speaker 2: could be so wrong that Ole Miss wins the game outright,

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Speaker 2: but my pick is Bama to win, bamaa cover. We

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Speaker 2: get to go to a campus Saturday. We did not

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Speaker 2: get to do that last week. Always love being on campuses.

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Speaker 2: Have not been around the quad, for example at al

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Speaker 2: Alabama since the LSU game of twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: Is the last time I got to go to a

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Speaker 1: game at Alabama.

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Speaker 2: They love Academy Sports in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and a lot

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Speaker 2: of you there watch the show. A lot of you

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Speaker 2: are going all over the place this Saturday. I read

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Speaker 2: the list some of you are gonna be in Fort Worth.

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Speaker 2: Some of you're gonna be in College Park, Maryland this

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Speaker 2: Friday night. Manhattan, Kansas will be on fire Saturday, Lexington, Kentucky,

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Speaker 2: the undefeated Wildcats welcoming in Florida. All over the place.

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Speaker 2: You guys are gonna have incredible tailgate scenes. You know

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Speaker 2: how to complete it, and it is our friends at

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Speaker 2: Academy Sports and Outdoors. And if you don't have time,

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Speaker 2: if it's getting a little bit later in the week,

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Speaker 2: responsibilities are piling up on you, that's okay, just hit

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Speaker 2: them up Academy dot com. They are more than capable

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Speaker 2: of overnight shipping you whatever you need for Saturday to

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Speaker 2: complete that tailgating experience, whether it's a nice tent, whether

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Speaker 2: it's a fancy grill, or whether it's just a new

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Speaker 2: long sleeve tea to put on your back cause the

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Speaker 2: weather's changing. Academy Sports and Outdoors they are the official

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Speaker 2: outdoor sporting good supplier of the Big Twelve, of the SEC,

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Speaker 2: and of this show Late Kick and Boy. We appreciate

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Speaker 2: them being especially the latter part. Academy Sports and Outdoors.

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Speaker 2: Let them take care of you this weekend. So far,

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Speaker 2: Colin the Voice is still there at home. Yeah, okay,

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Speaker 2: it's still there, so we are good to continue the

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Speaker 2: show here. What a game we have teed up right

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Speaker 2: after you finished breakfast Saturday morning, maybe even not done

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Speaker 2: with breakfast on the West coast, but even you guys

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Speaker 2: out in Santa Monica, California need to be watching this game.

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Speaker 2: Arkansas an eighteen point dog eighteen and a half actually

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Speaker 2: against Georgia between the hedges there in Athens, noon kickoff,

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Speaker 2: Eastern time on ESPN. This matchup is why you can't

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Speaker 2: afford to miss a week in college football, this particular

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Speaker 2: matchup Arkansas Georgia. I want you to think about it.

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Speaker 2: Where were you last year when they played? Do you

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Speaker 2: remember when they played? They played to open the season.

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Speaker 2: That was the Dewan Mathis era. Did a few possessions

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Speaker 2: for Georgia. We went through the entire preseason. You started

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Speaker 2: to get a ground swell of confidence if you're a

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Speaker 2: Georgia Bulldog fan that maybe it is Dwan Mathis, Maybe

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Speaker 2: he is the guy, because Jamie Newman he bailed on us.

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Speaker 2: Dwan Mathis was not the guy, and he was exposed

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Speaker 2: very quickly, and you never heard from him again. And

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Speaker 2: steps and Bennett ended up coming in, but Georgia trailed them.

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Speaker 1: Seven to five at the half. Is what I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to tell you. How long ago does that feel?

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Speaker 2: Arkansas goes on to do what they did last year,

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Speaker 2: Georgia goes on to lose the East. So neither of

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Speaker 2: them are playing for anything consequential in the last weekend

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Speaker 2: of the season, and yet here they are.

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Speaker 1: They're both undefeated. This is a top ten matchup.

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Speaker 2: Nobody in their right mind, or even some in their

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Speaker 2: wrong mind, could have predicted that a year ago, or

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Speaker 2: even a few weeks ago, and yet here we are.

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Speaker 2: Do not miss a week of college football. They give

359
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Speaker 2: you spring, they give you summer. You can take care

360
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Speaker 2: of all the things you need to do in your life.

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Speaker 2: Then you better not be missing a week or you

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Speaker 2: miss a lot in this sport. How did Arkansas beat

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Speaker 2: Tech to AA and M defense? And what what is

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Speaker 2: in the second blank? If you're just a casual observer,

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Speaker 2: you probably think, well, it's Arkansas. So they probably played

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Speaker 2: good defense, and they probably ran the ball right well,

367
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Speaker 2: they did run the ball.

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Speaker 1: They had a pretty good day on the ground.

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Speaker 2: I think they ran it forty nine times for one

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Speaker 2: hundred and ninety seven yards. That's about four yards per carry.

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Speaker 2: It's a good day, but that's not vintage Arkansas. When

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Speaker 2: Arkansas's rolling, they're peeling off to in a quarter to

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Speaker 2: seventy five, maybe three hundred on you asked Texas what

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Speaker 2: it looks like when Arkansas's rolling. No, what beat Texas

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Speaker 2: A and M last week was defense, and it better

376
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Speaker 2: be there again this week. But it was explosive plays

377
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Speaker 2: through the air, and it didn't take five or six

378
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Speaker 2: of them. It was a couple of explosive touchdown plays

379
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Speaker 2: through the air, one of them like eighty yards, one

380
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Speaker 2: of them about fifty yards, and they won. They won

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Speaker 2: twenty to ten. So Georgia is a very good defensive team.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna waste time telling you what you already know.

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Speaker 2: Here's what I do want to know. To what degree

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Speaker 2: will Georgia have success stopping the run, Because there's a

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Speaker 2: big difference between limiting Arkansas to something like sixty eight

386
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Speaker 2: total yards rushing, at which point Arkansas has no shot

387
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Speaker 2: of winning this, or limiting them to one hundred and

388
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Speaker 2: forty five yards rushing, with which point a complimentary approach

389
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Speaker 2: could have Arkansas in the game. In the fourth quarter

390
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Speaker 2: with a chance to win it, that's question number one. Now,

391
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Speaker 2: I got to get to this talking point out there

392
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Speaker 2: that exists about Georgia, mainly those of you who despise

393
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Speaker 2: the program. And you would tell me, well, you had

394
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Speaker 2: Georgia's four and oh, but they hadn't really played anybody.

395
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Speaker 2: They haven't played anybody. I hate to be the bearer

396
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Speaker 2: of bad news. Doesn't really mean anything, guys, Because if

397
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Speaker 2: I put the Bucks or who's the best team in

398
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Speaker 2: the NFL. If I put the Rams right now in

399
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Speaker 2: college football but I hadn't play a few FCS teams,

400
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Speaker 2: you'd have half of y'all out there say Rams haven't

401
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Speaker 2: played anybody. Okay, but that'd be favored by forty over

402
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Speaker 2: every college football team. It's possible for you not to

403
00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 2: have played anyone, and you also be really good. And

404
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:02,600
Speaker 2: in Georgia's case, please be real. I know Clemson's underachieving.

405
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,479
Speaker 2: Clemson's a legitimate football team, so let's please not pretend

406
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Speaker 2: like they aren't. And the second part to that is

407
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Speaker 2: George has done exactly what you're supposed to do when.

408
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Speaker 1: You play inferior teams.

409
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Speaker 2: They're beating them into a coma, beating them into a

410
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,719
Speaker 2: comas is actually what you're supposed to do. That's what

411
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Speaker 2: all the great teams do. And so you haven't played

412
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Speaker 2: anyone's all relative. Is it possible they're a little bit overhyped. Yeah,

413
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Speaker 2: I told you earlier this week. I think they are

414
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Speaker 2: a little overhyped. But you know what could be true here,

415
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Speaker 2: Georgia could be overhyped and still be the best team

416
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Speaker 2: in the country for all I know. I've absolutely got

417
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Speaker 2: them as at least the number two team in the country.

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Speaker 2: But they haven't played anyone.

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Speaker 1: Is not a sound.

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Speaker 2: Argument for why someone will or won't win a game

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Speaker 2: this Saturday. You're looking at their schedule right now, if

422
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Speaker 2: you're watching on YouTube, I'll tell you what people did

423
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Speaker 2: not expect. What people did not expect is perhaps their

424
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Speaker 2: biggest challenge until the Florida game, to be coming in

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Speaker 2: week four, maybe week five on the road at Auburn,

426
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Speaker 2: Kentucky gets it together week six. It isn't going to

427
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Speaker 2: be against Arkansas in week four, Like, what's Arkansas gonna do? Well,

428
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Speaker 2: let's talk about what they're gonna do, because I think

429
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Speaker 2: it's going to be reasonable to expect Georgia to struggle

430
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Speaker 2: establishing any kind of consistent ground game. That is something

431
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Speaker 2: that if you're gonna nitpick, has been a little bit

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Speaker 2: of an issue for them this year, not all the time,

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Speaker 2: at some of the time. And Arkansas is at their

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Speaker 2: average age is like thirty one years old up front,

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Speaker 2: so they're going to do a good job. Are the

436
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,920
Speaker 2: Arkansas Razorbacks limiting the run? But as we saw against

437
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:32,960
Speaker 2: A and M last week, you could limit the run

438
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 2: and then pop one on you. That could be the

439
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 2: difference in a game that wasn't last week. But all

440
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 2: it takes is missing one gap on one play and

441
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 2: you can shut them out the rest of the afternoon.

442
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,720
Speaker 2: Someone peels seventy five on you goes to the house.

443
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 2: Sometimes it doesn't matter. I think Arkansas is going to

444
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,880
Speaker 2: be okay in run defense, and it's reasonable to expect

445
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 2: Georgia to maybe struggle, maybe not hanging two hundred of

446
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,919
Speaker 2: their own on the ground. But it's also reasonable, I

447
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 2: think to expect JT. Daniels in this passing game to

448
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 2: have a relatively high amount of.

449
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 1: Success between the twenties.

450
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:03,280
Speaker 2: I don't think that's where the game will be one

451
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,200
Speaker 2: That's why I'm seeding that point.

452
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 1: What I do think is imperative for both teams.

453
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 2: It would be very, very beneficial if they could score

454
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 2: on explosive plays, because to be honest with you, I

455
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 2: don't have a whole lot of faith at the moment

456
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 2: in either of them knowing what the other defense possesses.

457
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,439
Speaker 2: If we're trying to win the game down in the

458
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 2: red zone, like red zone offense and therefore red zone

459
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,440
Speaker 2: defense will entirely decide this game. Now, there are a

460
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 2: few more things that Arkansas needs to have happened that

461
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 2: Georgia would just like to have happened. But one of

462
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 2: the things that could turn this very quickly is you

463
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 2: either turning it over on downs, missing field goals, or

464
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 2: settling for threes when the other guy's putting sevens on

465
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 2: the board. The red zone is going to be where

466
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 2: this game's won and lost. Some things to keep in

467
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:51,119
Speaker 2: mind before we get to the pick here. Last week,

468
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 2: early in this game against Texas A and m Arkansas,

469
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 2: as I said, popped a couple of deep balls. And

470
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 2: I know that coaching staff at Georgia has two things.

471
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 2: Number one, they really like to be physical and aggressive,

472
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:04,880
Speaker 2: and they like to get in your face and play

473
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 2: man coverage. But then the second part has to be

474
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 2: that you have to have an opponent specific game plan.

475
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,120
Speaker 2: And if I were looking at Arkansas and I were

476
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 2: knowing that, I think I can limit their run because

477
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 2: I have a bunch of small houses along my defensive line.

478
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure I wouldn't soften up coverage a

479
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,440
Speaker 2: little bit. I'm not so sure. I know there's a

480
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 2: dirty word for Kirby Smart I'm not so sure a

481
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 2: zone wouldn't be more the order of.

482
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 1: The day for me.

483
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 2: And at that point, if kJ Jefferson still beats you

484
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 2: over the top, then that's all well and good. We've

485
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 2: seen Georgia though, with the approach they normally take.

486
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 1: They'll give up a deep ball. They'll give up a

487
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 1: couple of deep balls.

488
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 2: And Kirby smartle meets you in the postgame press conference

489
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,120
Speaker 2: and he'll just say, look, I tip my cap to him.

490
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 1: They made a good throw. They dropped it in the bucket.

491
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,719
Speaker 1: Like that's college football, man. Well yeah it is.

492
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,399
Speaker 2: But that's normally when you're playing a more potent and

493
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 2: versatile offense. And I don't know how versatile Arkansas is

494
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: going to be Saturday, because I don't know how healthy

495
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 2: and how ready to run the ball fifteen times kJ

496
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 2: Jefferson will be And so because of that, I'm interested

497
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 2: to see how aggressive Georgia is at corner because there'll

498
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 2: be a couple of matchups. Arkansas looks to expose and

499
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 2: looks to attack, and they could have some success.

500
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 1: If you're overly aggressive. So that's point number one. Point

501
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,800
Speaker 1: number two, how off balance can bury ot them keep

502
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 1: J T. Daniels?

503
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 2: And by that I mean how many second and nine s,

504
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 2: how many third and sevens can we force? How many

505
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 2: obvious passing downs can we get him in to the

506
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 2: point where you give your defense an opportunity to force mistakes.

507
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 2: Because you could say, if you wanted to Devil's advocate style,

508
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 2: you could say about J. T. Daniels, the guy has

509
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 2: really not had to have his feet in the fire

510
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter against the legitimate defense like last

511
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 2: year in the Mississippi State game.

512
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 1: That was the situation.

513
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 2: But I don't know that that was the caliber of

514
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 2: opponent that they're facing right now.

515
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 1: So you could say that I'm the Cincinnati game. Notwithstanding

516
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 1: it was a weird dynamic.

517
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 2: You could say that that doesn't mean he's not capable

518
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 2: of It just means maybe we haven't seen the situation yet.

519
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: Eardly, this is when I saved for the end on purpose.

520
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 2: You're gonna have a lot of people who pick Georgia

521
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 2: tell you they're picking Georgia because of the physical mismatch,

522
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:14,239
Speaker 2: because physically, Arkansas's bread and butter is not something that

523
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 2: matches up well against Georgia.

524
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 1: Oh.

525
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 2: I agree with that. I agree they're not gonna out

526
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 2: physical Georgia. But let me tell you what. I also

527
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 2: think that's probably gonna raise some eyebrows. I don't think

528
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 2: Georgia is gonna physically manhandle them at all. I don't

529
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 2: think there's gonna be any point in this game where

530
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 2: Arkansas wilts, is what I'm telling you.

531
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 1: Georgia can lean all they want to.

532
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 2: Arkansas can match the physicality enough to where they make

533
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 2: it a four quarter game. You know, Georgia, you can

534
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 2: walk off the field having won thirty one to twenty three,

535
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 2: but also look over and say, wow, I mean they

536
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 2: withstood it. We thought they could withstand it for a half,

537
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 2: maybe three quarters, But look at them, they're still over

538
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 2: there standing right now. We gotta judge's decision over here.

539
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,399
Speaker 2: We did not get the TKO. That's more the kind

540
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:56,479
Speaker 2: of game George is gonna have to win Saturday. If

541
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 2: you think you're about to go in there, I don't

542
00:24:57,760 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 2: care how many five stars you got in your roster.

543
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 2: I've seen Arkansas in person, Like, I know what that

544
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 2: team's about. You're not bullying them or pushing them off

545
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 2: the field. You're not leaning on them until they collapse.

546
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 2: That's not the way George is gonna win. Precision execution.

547
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 2: You do have a superior roster, you absolutely do have that.

548
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 2: But they got a lot of stuff over in their

549
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,159
Speaker 2: corner that is more than capable of withstanding it for

550
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 2: four quarters. So with that in mind, Jesse, this is

551
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 2: a fat point spread. Let's take a look at what

552
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 2: Vegas says and what the model says.

553
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 1: I've listened.

554
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 2: I was listening to Jake Row and Kip and Rusty

555
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 2: on The Dogs twenty four to seven podcast earlier today,

556
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: and they were kind of flummoxed. You know how rarely

557
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 2: I use that word. I think Rusty uses it all

558
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 2: the time. But flummoxed were they at this point? Spread

559
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 2: being all the way up where it is? If you're

560
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 2: not watching right now, Caesars has it. Georgia minus eighteen

561
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,679
Speaker 2: and a half. Our model is just short of that.

562
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 2: We got Georgia minus seventeen and a half. And there's

563
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 2: a lot of speculation out there that this number must

564
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 2: be so high because kJ Jefferson is questionable. That's not

565
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 2: the case. The case is just flat out. Odds makers

566
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 2: would power rate Georgia when you factor in home field

567
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 2: being whatever they want a factor, let's just say three points.

568
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 1: They just view them as that much better. I mean

569
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 1: every position group.

570
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 2: If you don't understand the odds making process, every position

571
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 2: group is power rating. And there are enough margins of

572
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 2: plus one and a half points plus two and three

573
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 2: quarter points per position unit group that Georgia has. That

574
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 2: that's what it adds up to. It's not necessarily rocket science.

575
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 2: But most people don't understand the odds making process. And

576
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 2: I just I know it looks big, like I know

577
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 2: that point spread looks big. My advice to you if

578
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 2: you think it's too big is very simple. Open a

579
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: sports book account and bet Arkansas. That's what we're gonna do,

580
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 2: not hastily. This is not going to be a romnudle

581
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 2: express big, but I'll take Georgia to win. I do

582
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 2: think it's a few too many points. The model is

583
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 2: almost dead on the money. I think more along the

584
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,959
Speaker 2: lines of Georgia, you know, by two touchdowns, Georgia by

585
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:54,959
Speaker 2: thirteen something like that.

586
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 1: That'd be a really good win for Georgia.

587
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 2: By the way, So don't think just cause they don't

588
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 2: cover a really really high line and they've underachieved, you're

589
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 2: gonna have to pay a premium to take Georgia or

590
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,160
Speaker 2: Alabama the rest of the year, in case you haven't

591
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: noticed with the first two spreads. But I'll take Georgia

592
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 2: to win. I will take Arkansas to cover. All right,

593
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,119
Speaker 2: we have got to do something here. Probably gonna make

594
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,640
Speaker 2: a lot of people mad, but that's okay, because they're

595
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: mad for the right reasons. JP Poll Week five edition.

596
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 1: What is this? It is strictly power rating. It is

597
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 1: forward thinking.

598
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 2: Don't care about your resume, do not care about merit,

599
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 2: don't care about rewarding you for a win or punishing

600
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 2: you for a loss. All I care about is who

601
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 2: would the model pick against two on a neutral field

602
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 2: if they play tomorrow.

603
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: That's what it is. What it is not is pretty

604
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: much anything other than that. Here we go call them.

605
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 2: Is it still there? Yes, the voice is still there. Okay,

606
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 2: so let's take a look at we like to count

607
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: it down. They're still an itch. From twenty five to one,

608
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,640
Speaker 2: we go like five at a time. We have got

609
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 2: a team that is the biggest riser out of any

610
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 2: of these games and any of these polls that we've

611
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 2: done so.

612
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 1: Far this year. It's not in the first group here,

613
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 1: but I'll get to it.

614
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 2: So from twenty five to one, how about this Right

615
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:10,360
Speaker 2: in advance of Friday night's matchup Maryland, their first appearance

616
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 2: inside the JP poll top twenty five, The Terps are

617
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 2: up four spots. Sound like Casey Kayson. They're at number

618
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 2: twenty five. Pit is number twenty four. They also make

619
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 2: their initial debut. Yeah, that's normally what a debut is.

620
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 2: It is initial and the JP pole they're up five spots.

621
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 2: They're at number twenty four. That's one of the biggest

622
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 2: rises of the week. Michigan state twenty three. Wisconsin dropped

623
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 2: six spots. They're down to twenty two. Kentucky remains unchanged.

624
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,400
Speaker 2: They are at twenty one. Now we got a big

625
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 2: riser at number twenty. This team had fallen out of

626
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 2: the top twenty five. They're back. They're up five spots.

627
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 2: Arizona State we thought was very impressive in a game

628
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 2: you probably didn't watch, but we thought they were very impressive.

629
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 1: So we got them at twenty. Notre Dame and Auburn are.

630
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 2: Nineteen and eighteen, exact same spot they were in last week. Okay,

631
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 2: now we get into the muddy water. A lot of

632
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,719
Speaker 2: you think Clemson should not be ranked based on resume.

633
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 2: You're right, this is not a resume test. This is

634
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 2: just power rating. I cannot drop Clemson as far as

635
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 2: you want me to. Having said that, they are one

636
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 2: of the biggest drops of the year. Clemson is at

637
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 2: number seventeen. They're down seven spots. Iowa State is at

638
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 2: number sixteen. The model likes them because they keep losing

639
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 2: based on turnovers. That's not something, as I've told you

640
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 2: many times, that we think carries as much weight moving

641
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 2: forward as if you just keep getting out gained and

642
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 2: flat out outplayed. So the fact they have two losses

643
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 2: don't really matter there. Texas A and M is number fifteen.

644
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 2: That is, with Calzadic quarterback.

645
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 1: They're down.

646
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 2: For UCLA a big riser, They're up six to number fourteen.

647
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 2: Really like UCLA heavily considering making them a ram A

648
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 2: Noodle Express pick this Saturday against Arizona State. Iowa is thirteen,

649
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 2: Michigan is twelve. How about this, I don't know that

650
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: I've ever seen a jump this high. Actually, in the

651
00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 2: JP poll, Texas rose fourteen spot to number eleven.

652
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: Here's what the model is seeing.

653
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 2: The model is seeing that there has been a massive

654
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 2: correction at quarterback, which is obviously the most important position

655
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 2: on the field, and it is responding accordingly. And so

656
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 2: Texas just number twenty five. I think last week they

657
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 2: are now bordering on top ten status. We've got Arkansas

658
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 2: up seven spots to number ten. So Arkansas in the

659
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 2: top ten now, and that is a power rating top ten,

660
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: not an AP top ten. If this were an AP pole,

661
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: Arkansas would be higher. Keep in mind Iowa is also undefeated.

662
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 2: We still have them thirteen, so that's a big jump

663
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 2: to number ten. How about Oklahoma down six spots to

664
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 2: number nine. I told you JP poll idiot didn't want

665
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 2: to listen to me. Oklahoma's not the third best team

666
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: in the country. I disagreed with my own poll last week,

667
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 2: and I was right. Kind Of hard to be wrong

668
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 2: when that's the argument, but I was right. Ohio State

669
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 2: up one spot to number eight. Oregon and Cincinnati are

670
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 2: number seven to number six. Okay, here we go. Top

671
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 2: five remains unchanged. They are at number five. Florida has

672
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 2: cracked the top five. The Gators are at number four.

673
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 2: We were very impressed, some of you weren't, mainly the

674
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 2: xbox community. We were impressed that they pulled away from

675
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 2: Tennessee in a letdown spot physically, especially after Alabama.

676
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: So Florida's for Penn State is at number three.

677
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 2: There is a significant gap, and then you have Georgia

678
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 2: at number two, Alabama at number one. For those asking,

679
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: we have about a three and seven what is it

680
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 2: about three and three point seventy five to four point

681
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: gap between Alabama and Georgia.

682
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: I thought maybe it would shift.

683
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 2: It didn't, so we've still got a little bit of

684
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 2: a gap between Bama and Georgia.

685
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: But that's the top twenty five right now.

686
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 2: And that thing, I mean, we're quickly going to have

687
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 2: I think some movement inside even the top ten. The

688
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 2: top ten relative to the rest of the thing has

689
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 2: been pretty calm. I don't think that's going to last

690
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 2: much longer. So let's keep an eye on that. There

691
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 2: you see right now the top ten Arkansas again, congratulations,

692
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 2: because that that's something even I didn't see coming. Arkansas

693
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 2: at number ten right now, just one spot behind Oklahoma

694
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 2: and one spot ahead of Texas hoops. They already beat

695
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: into submission just a couple of weeks ago. Okay, got

696
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 2: one more game to get to allegedly, if the voice complies.

697
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 2: Do you know what's happening Saturday in South Bend? Cincinnati

698
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 2: is a two and a half point favorite. That's what's

699
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 2: happening on the road at Notre Dame. The over unders

700
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 2: fifty and a half for what it's worth. But take

701
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 2: a look at Cincinnati's Cincinnati's opportunity is probably the biggest

702
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 2: one here that I've seen them have. I know they've

703
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 2: played in bigger postseason games. To me, this is the

704
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 2: biggest game I remember Cincinnati having. And some people are

705
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 2: still holding out on that whole G five myth, and

706
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 2: the myth is of course that a G five team

707
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 2: can't make the playoff, which has never been true. They

708
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: never have made the playoff because no G five team

709
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 2: has deserved to make the playoff.

710
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 1: That is my opinion that well, it's also been the

711
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 1: opinion of the Committee.

712
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: There are people who are falsely equating the past to

713
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 2: meaning that it doesn't matter if Cincinnati goes unefeated. They're

714
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 2: not making it. You're insane. You're just wrong. If Cincinnati

715
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 2: wins out, they're going to be in the playoff. If

716
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 2: you don't think opinions have changed out there, would you

717
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 2: please look at the bottom of the screen.

718
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 1: Which team is favored in South Bend. It's not the Irish,

719
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 1: It's not the undefeated Irish. There's been no G five

720
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: team in the past that had this kind of reputation.

721
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 2: There's been no G five team in the past that

722
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 2: at the starting line had this much win behind its sales.

723
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 2: Cincinnati's going to the playoff if they're undefeated.

724
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: Now.

725
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: To be undefeated, this is the biggest challenge remaining on

726
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 2: the schedule. They got to go into Notre Dame and

727
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: they gotta win. So Notre Dame. You look at them,

728
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 2: you've probably watched him play a few times. Are they

729
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 2: buying time or are they on borrowed time? Is kind

730
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 2: of the two classifications I think they could fall into.

731
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 2: If they're buying time, then they're barely getting by until

732
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 2: finally they hit a gear in that offensive line. Gets

733
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 2: its act together and all of a sudden, they can

734
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 2: take advantage of the weapons out wide, and they can

735
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 2: feature a couple of future Sunday running backs like all

736
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 2: that stuff, along with Jack Cone and his potential, which

737
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 2: is better than the quarterbacks they've had there, all that

738
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 2: kind of finds its groove and Okay, remember those ugly wins.

739
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 2: We didn't appreciate him at the time, but glad we

740
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 2: got them, because now we're clicking. They could be doing

741
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 2: that or they could be living on borrow time. And

742
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 2: what that would be is, well, they've been winning ugly

743
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 2: against Purdue and Toledo almost beat them in Florida State,

744
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 2: almost beat them, took them to overtime, and then they

745
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:38,399
Speaker 2: eventually hit a wall. And that's that. So which are they?

746
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: I don't know. I can tell you right now.

747
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 2: If one thing I could change in this sport would

748
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 2: be Notre Dame's offensive line being very good as opposed

749
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 2: to what they've been.

750
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 1: That would change a lot about this team. So I

751
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 1: can't do that.

752
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 2: I don't have that magic wand but what I am

753
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 2: excited about is there's a positive for Notre Dame here.

754
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 1: I know I sound kind of negative, but it's been reality.

755
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 2: I'm not saying anything Notre Dame fans aren't saying over

756
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 2: on Iri Illustrated dot Com, for example. But there's a

757
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 2: positive here, and that is Desmond Ridder, the quarterback of

758
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 2: Cincinnati and the Cincinnati offense. They can be turnover prone.

759
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,280
Speaker 2: I think they played who was it? They played Murray

760
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:16,360
Speaker 2: State sacked them twice. They had some turnovers against Indiana.

761
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 2: I think they gave it away three times. Problem Minnesota, Indiana,

762
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 2: they can be that and this is by far the

763
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 2: most disruptive front that Indiana will have faced all year.

764
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 2: But the good news on the flip side for Indiana

765
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 2: is Notre Dame hasn't faced an RPO threat defensively like

766
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 2: Desmond Ridder, and this offense will pose to them.

767
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 1: So at the very least, what you.

768
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 2: Hope to do is you hope to neutralize some of

769
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 2: those edges Notre Dame has defensively by presenting some edges

770
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 2: of your own. The matchup to watch, though I don't

771
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 2: go there. The matchup to watch for me is out wide.

772
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 2: Cincinnati's defensive backs. They love press covers all they love it,

773
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 2: and it's given Notre Dame some trouble and Notre Dame

774
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 2: already this season has had some trouble getting off press

775
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:02,720
Speaker 2: and Notre Dame hasn't handled it all that well, which

776
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,280
Speaker 2: stands to reason, you know, especially with a week to prepare,

777
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: two weeks to prepare.

778
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 1: I mean, Cincinnati is going to go right at that.

779
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 2: And combining that with what you hope is an offensive

780
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 2: line that you can take advantage of, could really make

781
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 2: this ugly for Notre Dame.

782
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 1: And trying to sustain drives.

783
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean you couldn't pop a big play every

784
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 2: now and then, but you want sustained drives, and that's

785
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 2: what Notre Dame hasn't been able.

786
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 1: To do nearly enough.

787
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 2: But I will tell you this, in talking to a

788
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,280
Speaker 2: couple of folks around the Notre Dame program, they believe

789
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 2: their offensive line is not quite the disaster that some

790
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 2: people believe it is, and they also think is getting better.

791
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 2: They also think they could have a little more success

792
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 2: running the ball Saturday than let's say, the average projection

793
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 2: would have them putting on the board. So they think

794
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 2: they're ready for this moment. Notre Dame does. Cincinnati absolutely

795
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 2: thinks they're ready for this moment. So what I want

796
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 2: to do Jesse. Let's go ahead and show the model

797
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 2: and let's take a look at what we think and

798
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 2: what the Vegas number is. So I showed you. You see

799
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 2: it on the bottom of the screen. Cincinnati currently favored

800
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 2: by two and a half. Model loves Cincinnati, loves them,

801
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 2: and I love them even more than that. I will

802
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 2: take Cincinnati to cover. I will take Cincinnati to win.

803
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna win by seven or more Saturday,

804
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 2: and I think it is a moment they're ready for.

805
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,760
Speaker 1: Environment is something that is against them.

806
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 2: I think what they showed when they went into Indiana

807
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 2: is underrated. They went into Indiana, they did not play

808
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 2: the best game. They ended up pulling away. I think

809
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 2: people underestimate the shot they took from Indiana. Indiana was

810
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 2: wounded animal back against the wall at home season on

811
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:37,439
Speaker 2: the line, like they got Indiana's fastball. For whatever that's worth,

812
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 2: they got it and they dealt with it. On the

813
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 2: road place was I think sold out, and so it

814
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 2: was a big game atmosphere. They'll ratchet it up and

815
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 2: notch it Notre Dame obviously. I don't think if Cincinnati

816
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 2: loses Saturday, it's gonna be because the moment was too big.

817
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 2: I think it'll because Notre Dame was too good, but

818
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,200
Speaker 2: I don't think that's the outcome. I'm taking Luke Fickle

819
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 2: to get the biggest win of his career, and I

820
00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,800
Speaker 2: think Cincinnati is going to win the game, and I

821
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:03,720
Speaker 2: think they're gonna cover in the process. Robin Noudle express

822
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 2: time that game could end up on there by the way,

823
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,399
Speaker 2: not at the moment, but it could end up on there.

824
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 1: Here are the games we're on. We've added two more.

825
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 2: Kent State minus fifteen and a half is the first

826
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 2: game that we're on this week. We are also betting

827
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,439
Speaker 2: on food, and a lot of you said I thought

828
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 2: that was the number one rule, don't bet on food.

829
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 1: No, the number one rule is don't lose to food.

830
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:25,720
Speaker 1: We are betting on food.

831
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 2: We are laying two and a half points with Rice,

832
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,439
Speaker 2: so we are on food this week. We are also

833
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 2: laying ten and a half with Penn State at home

834
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 2: against Indiana, and we are also jumping on Louisiana Monroe again.

835
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:40,839
Speaker 2: We bet them as a twenty four point dog. Last

836
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 2: week they won outright, no big deal. They beat Troy

837
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 2: out right. They're going on the road to Coastal Carolina

838
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 2: this Saturday. We're gonna take Louisiana Monroe plus thirty four

839
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 2: and a half. We think it'll be inside four touchdowns

840
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 2: and backup quarterback, third string quarterback. We don't care. We

841
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 2: love betting backup quarterbacks. We're gonna take Kansas State plus

842
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 2: ten and a half at home against Oklahoma. So k

843
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 2: State plus ten and a half, La Monroe plus thirty

844
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 2: four and a half, Penn State minus ten and a half,

845
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 2: Rice minus two and a half. Why can't we get

846
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 2: round numbers and Kent State minus fifteen and a half?

847
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 1: That is our show.

848
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:17,760
Speaker 2: I probably have three maybe four minutes of voice Max left,

849
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 2: and I'm going to save all that to tell Colin goodbye.

850
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 1: Thank you for hanging in there even through the coughs. Tonight.

851
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 2: Make sure you check out the Late Kick podcast cause

852
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 2: the Late Kick Extra podcast from today had some nuggets

853
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 2: in there. It is only available via podcast, and as

854
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:35,840
Speaker 2: you can tell, I'm taking podcasts more seriously because all

855
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 2: of a sudden they're successful, and so now I want

856
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 2: to start paying attention to a little bit more.

857
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,439
Speaker 1: So, thank you so much. I am about to head

858
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 1: to Georgia tonight a rare home visit during the season.

859
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 1: We will be on the air Thursday.

860
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 2: Don't worry about that, but think of me as you

861
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 2: lay your head down to sleep tonight.

862
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:55,399
Speaker 1: I'll probably be somewhere in Alpharetta, Georgia or something like that.

863
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: So thanks so much.

864
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: Make sure you're following on Instagram and Twitter at late

865
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 2: Kick Josh for director Colin, for our crew Connecticut, I'm

866
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: Josh Pate.

867
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,240
Speaker 1: Have a great rest of your evening and God bless