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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. Brendan Glasheen, joined today

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Speaker 2: by Shan Zarillo, Action Network contributor and also Action Network

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Speaker 2: editor Colin Witchurch. We are here to bring you in

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Speaker 2: an American League betting preview. Yes, baseball, it is right

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Speaker 2: around the corner everybody, so be sure to be on

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Speaker 2: the lookout for our National League betting preview as well.

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Speaker 2: But in this episode, we break down all fifteen teams

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Speaker 2: in the American League. We cover all fifteen and the

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Speaker 2: best ways to bet the league. We'll go division by

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Speaker 2: division for structuring purposes, and like I said, we're going

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Speaker 2: to do a separate podcast for the National League, so be.

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Speaker 3: On the lookout for that.

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Speaker 2: We're going to start in the American League East, gentlemen,

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Speaker 2: and we'll begin with those New York Yankees, the very

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Speaker 2: public New York Yankees.

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Speaker 4: Great two deep to center track see want a shot

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Speaker 4: by judge over the batter's.

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Speaker 2: Eye for Yankees last year, finishing tied with the Red

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Speaker 2: Sox in the American League East. Red Sox did get

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Speaker 2: the tie breaker eventually the wild card win. Yankees went

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Speaker 2: ninety two and seventy last year in the American League

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Speaker 2: East this year.

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Speaker 3: Win total opening at ninety.

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Speaker 2: One and the half to that's their win total for

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Speaker 2: this coming season. So Seanzarella will begin with you your outlook

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Speaker 2: for the New York Yankees in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I have them projected right around ninety one and

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Speaker 5: a half. So no value for me on the win total.

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Speaker 5: If you are a believer in Pokoda, though, the Yankees

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Speaker 5: might be a value side because Pakoda has them winning

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Speaker 5: the East by seven games. They have their divisional odds

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Speaker 5: projected at seventy three percent, so those odds implied would

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Speaker 5: be minus north of minus two to fifty, and they

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Speaker 5: would have their World Series odds projected at fifteen percent,

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Speaker 5: so around plus five to fifty implied. So Pakota thinks

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Speaker 5: the Yankees are an absolute value team. But I look

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Speaker 5: at my projection. I look at fangraft zips. I have

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Speaker 5: the Ja's ahead by a couple games, and then I

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Speaker 5: look at Davenport, which is basically the inverse of Pokoda.

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Speaker 5: They have the Ja's clearing off the Yankees.

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Speaker 6: By seven games.

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Speaker 5: So if you look at the average market projection, the

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Speaker 5: Yankees are probably situated exactly where they should be and

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Speaker 5: taking that average. I do have them in second place

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Speaker 5: beyond the JS, so no value for me. But as

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Speaker 5: I said, if you're a Pakoda truther, the Yankees' divisional

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Speaker 5: and World Series bets are probably worth the play.

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Speaker 2: Colin whit Church, I know we will discuss the J's,

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Speaker 2: We'll discuss every team in the American League, but the

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Speaker 2: Yankees do crack MLB dot COM's top ten in starting rotations.

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Speaker 2: How do you look at the Yankees this year? That

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Speaker 2: win totally again at ninety one and a half. Just

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Speaker 2: we're using win totals, by the way, folks, as a

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Speaker 2: barometer as a starting off point to get our conversation

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Speaker 2: started here.

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Speaker 7: It's it's funny Azrillo mentions Pakoda truthers. You know I'm

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Speaker 7: I'm one of the ultimate Pakoda truthers here. You know

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Speaker 7: my background with baseball perspectives. I love the guys over there,

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Speaker 7: shout out to Craig all the guys at VP do

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Speaker 7: amazing work. But Pakoda's out of its damn mind with

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Speaker 7: ninety eight wins for the Yankees this year. I love

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Speaker 7: the under on the Yankees this year as starting rotation. Brendan,

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Speaker 7: you mentioned top ten. I don't see it Garrett Cole

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Speaker 7: is phenomenal in the on the short list for best

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Speaker 7: picture in the world. Absolutely behind him Jordan Montgomery injury risk,

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Speaker 7: Louis Severino injury risk, Nestor Corti has unproven, jameson ty

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Speaker 7: Own injury risk. The Yankees were cheat this offseason. I

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Speaker 7: don't get why they're not spending money anymore. The Josh

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Speaker 7: Donaldson trade was confusing. They still have shortstop question marks.

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Speaker 7: They now have catcher question marks. This is the third

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Speaker 7: best team in the division, maybe the fourth best team

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Speaker 7: in the division. You could argue, I would probably argue

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Speaker 7: I love the under on their win total. I'm selling

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Speaker 7: on the Yankees this season hard.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to the Toronto Blue Jays.

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Speaker 6: Here's a pitch on the way of swinging a.

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Speaker 4: Belt hook peel pay back Blue Jays.

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Speaker 8: Well that the Blue Jays o World Series champions.

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Speaker 6: As Joe Carter picks a three run home run in the.

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Speaker 8: Night penning in the Blue Jays have repeat it as

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Speaker 8: World Series champions.

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Speaker 3: Touch them all, Joe, You'll.

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Speaker 9: Never hit a bigger home run in your life.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty one, Toronto ninety one wins, and I

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Speaker 2: should mention of all divisions of Major League Baseball. The

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Speaker 2: American League East is the only division to have four

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Speaker 2: teams with win totals projected eighty wins. So this is

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Speaker 2: just a really fascinating division. It's the right division to

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Speaker 2: start off with. Toronto goes ninety one and seventy one

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one. I mentioned they've got a great

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Speaker 2: rotation projected by MLB dot Com. They've got the number

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Speaker 2: three rotation, the number two lineup, Sean Zarillo, the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two Toronto Blue Jays.

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Speaker 3: What's the outlook?

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Speaker 5: My favorite World Series play eleven to one currently at

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Speaker 5: at MGM. Now I have the Jays at ninety four wins,

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Speaker 5: I have the Yankees at ninety two, and I have

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Speaker 5: the Rays actually at ninety two point one, so all

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Speaker 5: three of those teams within a few wins of each other.

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Speaker 5: But my projections compare pretty favorably to fangraffs zips both

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Speaker 5: in the AL East and in the ALE as a whole.

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Speaker 5: And Fangrafts has the Jays at forty four percent to

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Speaker 5: win their division. That's about plus one twenty five. I

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Speaker 5: plied they have them at twelve percent to win the

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Speaker 5: World Series. It's about seven twenty five implied. So I

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Speaker 5: think there's tremendous value on the Jays out there, both

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Speaker 5: in the divisional market and the World Series markets. Got

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Speaker 5: to twenty five on them last week to win the

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Speaker 5: division I'd still play the Pulley plus one eighty five.

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Speaker 5: It's out there and the World Series odds eleven to one,

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Speaker 5: twelve to one last week. We moved that number down

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Speaker 5: to nine to fifty with the matter of hours, but

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Speaker 5: I still think the eleven one out there is worth taking.

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Speaker 5: So anything in double digits for me on the J's

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Speaker 5: in the preseason, you could play down at ten to

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Speaker 5: one is my favorite World Series play.

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Speaker 2: How about you, Colin? The Blue Jays. They're a popular

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Speaker 2: team this offseason.

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Speaker 7: I'm right there with Zarrillo. I love Toronto this year.

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Speaker 7: It probably shouldn't be surprising after you heard me rip

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Speaker 7: apart the Yankees just a few seconds ago. It's amazing

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Speaker 7: that this team could lose the Cy Young winner and

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Speaker 7: an MVP candidate last offseason in Robbi Ray and Marcasimion

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Speaker 7: and still be I think they're the second best team

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Speaker 7: in baseball behind the Dodgers, and we're sitting here and

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Speaker 7: they have the third best ale Penna odds behind the

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Speaker 7: White Sox Nastros. I think they're the best team in

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Speaker 7: the American League. The rotation top five, really good established starters.

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Speaker 7: Kevin Gousman, they added to the mix. They have depth.

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Speaker 7: Ross Stripling is a really solid swing man. You know,

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Speaker 7: he did some good stuff for the Dodgers when they

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Speaker 7: were contending for World Series titles. And he's not even

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Speaker 7: in the rotation. He'll be there in case of injury.

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Speaker 7: Nate Pearson, one of the top prospects in all of

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Speaker 7: baseball just a year or two ago, is dealt with injuries.

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Speaker 7: They're waiting for him to pop. That would just be

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Speaker 7: an added bonus. At this point, their lineup is strong

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Speaker 7: from top to bottom. Matt Chapman's gonna help short up

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Speaker 7: their defense even if his offense doesn't rebound. I love

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Speaker 7: the Blue Jays. I'll be on their win total over

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Speaker 7: their division, their Pennant World Series, everything Go Jays up.

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Speaker 3: Next, Let's discuss the Tampa Bay race.

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Speaker 9: And it was oh no, Clive off deep like center

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Speaker 9: off about it Phillips and comes Phillips her up, circle

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Speaker 9: them off and signed the win Phillips.

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Speaker 2: Of course, they won one hundred games last year one

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Speaker 2: hundred wins sixty two losses.

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Speaker 3: In twenty twenty one, the Rays projected.

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Speaker 2: Win total, the win total listed on many sportsbooks, hovering

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Speaker 2: just below ninety at eighty nine and a half are

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Speaker 2: the Rays. I feel like we do this every year

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Speaker 2: with the race a great rotation. Their lineup is pretty good. Again,

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Speaker 2: are the Rays being overlooked? Sean zare alone.

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Speaker 5: It's possible, you know. I'm higher on the Rays typically

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Speaker 5: than the market. I have them at ninety two wins here,

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Speaker 5: so I would lean to the over. But looking at

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Speaker 5: the other three projections out there publicly Davenport, Pokota and Zips,

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Speaker 5: I'll keep mentioning these, so I just want to mention

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Speaker 5: them overall as a group eighty forty five eighty six.

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Speaker 5: So all three of those projections have the Rays going under.

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Speaker 5: I have them going over. That leads me to a

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Speaker 5: pass because I don't see Usually I look for a

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Speaker 5: three wing gap, three and a half win gap between

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Speaker 5: my projection and the over under in order to make

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Speaker 5: a play. I'm at like two point seven here, so

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Speaker 5: looking at the market, it's enough for me to pass.

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Speaker 5: That said, something I'm really interested in this year. No

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Speaker 5: defensive shifting anymore or no traditional infield shifting that we've

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Speaker 5: seen in the past. Maybe teams will come up with

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Speaker 5: new methods to strategize how to play defense, but that

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Speaker 5: probably does take a hit out of a team like

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Speaker 5: the Rays or the Astros or the A's other teams

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Speaker 5: who have used their resources and passed to allocate towards

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Speaker 5: defensive positioning. That's definitely going to take a hit this year.

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Speaker 5: So maybe that takes some bite out of what the

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Speaker 5: Rays brings to the table.

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Speaker 2: The Rays colin last year and entering this year, I

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Speaker 2: should mention they were ranked number nine by MLB dot

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Speaker 2: Com for their lineup, they ranked second of the majors

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Speaker 2: and run scored slugging percentage was up there. Now their

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Speaker 2: rotation takes a little bit of a hit from last year,

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Speaker 2: they add Corey Klueber will have to keep an eye

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Speaker 2: on Shane Baz's elbow injury and how that affects their rotation.

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Speaker 3: But how do you look at the Rays? Are they

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Speaker 3: once again being overlooked?

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Speaker 7: I think they are being overlooked, But look, the Rays

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Speaker 7: are a team that when you're looking at projections, you

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Speaker 7: throw this team out the window because the projection systems

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Speaker 7: never know what the hell to do with this team,

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Speaker 7: and because of that, they scare the hell out of me.

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Speaker 7: And they're They're a team that I'm avoiding, like the

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Speaker 7: plague in the futures market. I don't see any value

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Speaker 7: in their win total, their pennant, their vision futures. They're

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Speaker 7: a deep team. They defy the projections regularly. They do

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Speaker 7: unconventional things. You know, Kevin Cash works one to one

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Speaker 7: with that front office, basically in the analytics department, to

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Speaker 7: figure out how to manage the rotation, manage the bullpen.

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Speaker 7: I will say with Tampa, this is a team you

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Speaker 7: want to keep an eye on the futures market going

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Speaker 7: into the season because that's when the value starts to ride.

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Speaker 7: The public is going to be on the Yankees, They're

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Speaker 7: gonna be on the Red Sox, They're probably gonna fall

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Speaker 7: in love with the Blue Jays even more. It's mid

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Speaker 7: season and the Rays are just kind of hovering there

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Speaker 7: right right toward the middle of the pack in the

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Speaker 7: division that the future value might start to come alive

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Speaker 7: for Tampa, So people should keep an eye on that.

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Speaker 2: I feel like the descriptions you both gave are like

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Speaker 2: exactly what we say every year about the race. You know,

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Speaker 2: keep an eye on them as season starts and see

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Speaker 2: all you know, see the Red Sox Yankees and see

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Speaker 2: those two teams beat up on each other and they're

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Speaker 2: just there.

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Speaker 3: Come the race.

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Speaker 5: And they had a number one farm system in baseball

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Speaker 5: last year. So it's you know, and offensive talent coming up. Right.

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Speaker 5: We've seen them rely on the pitching, the pass kind

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Speaker 5: of struggle to get by with the hitting. They're becoming

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Speaker 5: more of an offensive team and as these prospects come up,

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Speaker 5: I do think they'll kind of pull away from the

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Speaker 5: Yankees unless the Yankees outspend so Yank or Raisin Blue

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Speaker 5: Jays going forward could be a pretty serious rivalry.

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Speaker 7: The fact that Wander Franco is listed as the sixth

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Speaker 7: lowest odds for a l MVP after playing what four

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Speaker 7: months of a major League baseball career shows you how

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Speaker 7: stacked that team is with young talent. And that dude

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Speaker 7: is I mean, he's going to be a superstar.

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Speaker 3: Let's shift to the Boston Red Sox.

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Speaker 7: Jevers real deep, goodbye again the tank.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty one Red Sox ninety two and seventy,

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Speaker 2: I mentioned that off the top tied with the Yankees

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Speaker 2: in the AL East. Red Sox reached the American League

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Speaker 2: Championship Series last year. Red Sox projected win total at

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Speaker 2: eighty five and a half, which would put them at

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Speaker 2: the fourth best odds to win the American League East.

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Speaker 2: Red Sox have a top line up once again in baseball.

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Speaker 2: They've got that three headed monster in the middle of

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Speaker 2: the lineup with Bogart's Martinez Devers. They had Trevor Story

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two Schanzrelo. The Red Sox, as we've talked

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Speaker 2: about here, we've kind of teased it. They're a public

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Speaker 2: team like the Yankees, but the Red Sox, there's concerns

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Speaker 2: there right about their rotation.

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Speaker 6: Oh absolutely.

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Speaker 5: And you know, anytime you have a picture like Chrisselle

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Speaker 5: returning from a significant injury, remains to be seen how

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Speaker 5: that arm's gonna hold up as you get, you know,

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Speaker 5: a season, two seasons down the line. So yeah, he's

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Speaker 5: going to be a key part to any success that

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Speaker 5: they might have no value here for me, either over

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Speaker 5: or under. I kind of alignment the market. I'm at

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Speaker 5: eighty four, so slightly into the under, but the projection

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Speaker 5: market leans over the one number that stood out to

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Speaker 5: me that I thought was interesting. Fangrafts put their World

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Speaker 5: Series odds at four point two percent. That's plus twenty

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Speaker 5: three hundred applied. There's a plus twenty five hundred out

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Speaker 5: there on the Red Sox at Fandel, So if you

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Speaker 5: believe in that fan Grass projection, there might be some

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Speaker 5: World Series.

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Speaker 2: Value colin your thoughts on the Red Sox in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, the Red Sox are the ultimate IF team this year.

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Speaker 7: I'm probably going slight over on them this year more

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Speaker 7: as a as evidence of my Yankees fading. But they

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Speaker 7: have so many question marks where it's like, well, if

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Speaker 7: all of these things go right, this team's going to

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Speaker 7: be a legitimate World Series contender. You mentioned that rotation,

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Speaker 7: and it scares me. I think you have Aldi's great

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Speaker 7: at the top. If Sale can even be seventy eighty

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Speaker 7: percent of what he was, that'll be a huge boost.

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Speaker 7: But relying on guys like Mike Waka, like Rich Hill

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Speaker 7: just scares the hell out of me from a standpoint

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Speaker 7: of facing these Al East lineups day in and day out.

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Speaker 7: It's also strange that they didn't you mentioned they brought

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Speaker 7: in Trevor story it's strange that they didn't address right field.

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Speaker 7: They're going back to the well with Jackie Bradley junior there.

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Speaker 7: I do think this team's going to be better defensively

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Speaker 7: this year. Bradley's a plus defender. Trevor Story should profile

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Speaker 7: great at second base, although if they really wanted to

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Speaker 7: be great defensively, they'd have him play shortstop and move

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Speaker 7: Xander to second base. But you know, the incumbent wins out,

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Speaker 7: I guess, but they are going to be improved defensively.

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Speaker 7: Really hard team for me to peg. I lean over,

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Speaker 7: but I don't see huge value in any other markets.

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Speaker 2: This is the second time in this division you said

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Speaker 2: you're scared. You know, you're getting a hell scared out

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Speaker 2: of you, Like, is it okay?

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Speaker 3: Like maybe you should just stay away from this scary morning?

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Speaker 7: All right?

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Speaker 2: Oh the ala it can do that to people understood.

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Speaker 2: Red Sox the number six lineup according to MLB dot

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Speaker 2: Com heading into twenty twenty two. And then of course

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Speaker 2: we have to mention those Baltimore Orioles.

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Speaker 3: Right, Oh no, we suck again.

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Speaker 2: Fifty two and one hundred and ten. That feels weird

296
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Speaker 2: to say, hey, what was your record last year? Oh,

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Speaker 2: we went fifty two and one ten. That's just god,

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Speaker 2: that's hard. How is their projected win total now at

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Speaker 2: sixty one and a half. So are the Orioles going

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Speaker 2: to be nine ten wins better next year?

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Speaker 5: Sean? I, oh right, it seems high to me as well.

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Speaker 5: But I have the Orioles here projected at sixty five,

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Speaker 5: and every other projection likes them to go over their

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Speaker 5: list in total, well except for Pacoda. Pkoda has them

305
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Speaker 5: at sixty one point three, but the market projection on

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Speaker 5: average has them at sixty four. I have them at

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Speaker 5: sixty five. I found it over sixty and a half

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Speaker 5: at bet Rivers. I had to play that initially. There's

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Speaker 5: still some over sixty one and a half out there.

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Speaker 5: I think I'd poke that too, Honestly, I know you said.

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Speaker 5: This is the only division where we have four teams

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Speaker 5: projected to finish above five hundred, which makes it scary.

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Speaker 6: As Colin has been saying.

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Speaker 5: To bet an over on a team who is projected

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Speaker 5: to be one of the worst in baseball, But the

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Speaker 5: numbers tell me I have to bet the over here.

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Speaker 6: I don't love it.

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Speaker 5: It's a one unit play, but we're gonna go ahead

319
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Speaker 5: and taken over sixty one and a half on the.

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Speaker 3: Orioles, Colin, are you scared of the Orioles?

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Speaker 7: Like some of these other things, this is a very

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Speaker 7: common theme we've got going on here. I'm terrified right now,

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Speaker 7: and it has nothing to do with the Oriols. It

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Speaker 7: has to do with the fact that I'm disagreeing with

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Speaker 7: Sorillo here. I love the under on Baltimore. Disagreeing with

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Speaker 7: Zerrilla's something that I don't usually try to do very often,

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Speaker 7: but I love the under for the Orioles. It's probably

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Speaker 7: my second favorite bet in this division behind the Blue Jays.

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Speaker 7: Win total. The Orioles one hundred losses is pretty much

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Speaker 7: just a given over the last five years. This team

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Speaker 7: doesn't try to do anything to improve the roster. And

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Speaker 7: it's not that they're not going out and signing big

333
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Speaker 7: name free agents, which they're not, and I understand why

334
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Speaker 7: they're not is that they don't even really try to

335
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Speaker 7: do anything to improve it on the fringes. No like

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Speaker 7: stealth Waiver claims to try to find these under the

337
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Speaker 7: radar guys, something that you saw the Astros and Cubs

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Speaker 7: do a lot during their rebuilds earlier last decade. They're

339
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Speaker 7: just content playing out the string, hoping that their prospects

340
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Speaker 7: pan out. There are names up and down to this

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Speaker 7: depth chart that you have to figure out where they

342
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Speaker 7: came from. Kelvin Gutierrez, Jacob Nottingham, Zach Lowther. You know,

343
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Speaker 7: the Orioles are gonna They're gonna be a lot more

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Speaker 7: fun this year than they've been in recent years. If

345
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Speaker 7: they call up Adlee Rutchman, if we see some grace

346
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Speaker 7: in Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins is one of the most underrated

347
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Speaker 7: players in baseball. John Means is a stealth cy young candidate.

348
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Speaker 7: Please don't laugh. I swear to god, he's a stealth

349
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Speaker 7: sy young candidate at fifty to one or longer, but

350
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Speaker 7: one hundred losses in win total in the high fifties.

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Speaker 7: I like the under here. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I guess if you're looking into an Orioles win total,

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Speaker 2: you're we're so looking at the right column and you're

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Speaker 2: just counting to triple digits. You want to just once

355
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Speaker 2: it hits that, you'll feel pretty good. I suppose about

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Speaker 2: that pick. Before we move on to the next division,

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Speaker 2: Let's get our best bets from the Al East Sean.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I just want to shout out Cedric Mullins, real

359
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Speaker 5: quick All Star in the MLB with Crone's disease, so

360
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Speaker 5: good on him.

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Speaker 6: That is an absolute warrior. My favorite bet in.

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Speaker 5: Alis has to be the Toronto Blue Jays plus eleven

363
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Speaker 5: hundred to win the World Series at MGM. As I mentioned,

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Speaker 5: forget my projection, Fangrafts has this line at about seven

365
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Speaker 5: twenty five and implied I'd probably make it closer to

366
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Speaker 5: plus eight hundred nine hundred considering the proximity that I

367
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Speaker 5: have the Yankees and the J's and the Ale East.

368
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Speaker 5: But the Jays to me are the second best team

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Speaker 5: in baseball and they're my World Series pick for twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty two.

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Speaker 3: What do you got, Colin?

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Speaker 7: Was Zarrillo here, but I'm gonna focus on their win

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Speaker 7: total Blue Jays over ninety two and a half for

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Speaker 7: all the reasons Zarrillo just said, they're the best team

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Speaker 7: in the American League, second best team in baseball.

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Speaker 2: Very good, and once again you're tuned into our American

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Speaker 2: League betting preview on the Action Network podcast or hitting

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Speaker 2: on all fifteen teams.

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00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 3: We go division by division.

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Speaker 2: The best ways to approach each of these teams in

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Speaker 2: the betting market.

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Speaker 3: If you like, put you here.

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Speaker 2: By the way, we have a brand new MLB betting podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's called Payoff Pitch. You can find it wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts. And during the twenty twenty two baseball season,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna be covered every Tuesday and Friday to break

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Speaker 2: down the day's baseball slate.

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Speaker 3: So we look forward to having you there.

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Speaker 2: Check us out over on Payoff Pitch wherever you get

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Speaker 2: your podcasts.

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Speaker 3: Move on to the Al Central. The White Sox.

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Speaker 6: What not Plans, Go Go Go Socks.

393
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Speaker 3: Chick ag was proud.

394
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Speaker 2: A great team last year out of that division. They

395
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Speaker 2: won the division at.

396
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Speaker 3: Ninety three in sixty nine.

397
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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty one, they've got another great lineup top

398
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Speaker 2: ten MLB dot Com. Also at top ten rotation according

399
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Speaker 2: to MLB dot Com, number three lineup in baseball in

400
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,680
Speaker 2: the in the rotation department and then as it pertains

401
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Speaker 2: to as it pertains to the rotation number four, so

402
00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 2: both top five Sean White Sox projected at ninety two

403
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 2: and a half wins in twenty twenty two, which your

404
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:37,840
Speaker 2: outlook of the White Sox this year.

405
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Speaker 5: I have them in eighty eight wins, so actually like

406
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Speaker 5: the under here now the most optimistic projection in the

407
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Speaker 5: projection market. The other three projections I mentioned have the

408
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Speaker 5: been minus one ninety to winning Division and plus twelve

409
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,240
Speaker 5: hundred to win the World Series, so there's no value there. Actually,

410
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 5: do you like this team from a player prop perspective,

411
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:55,639
Speaker 5: there's a few different guys. I am going to be

412
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Speaker 5: targeting a certain Cuban youngster who I might look at

413
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Speaker 5: in the MVP market, but I'm going to take the

414
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 5: under down to ninety two. Here there's a ninety three

415
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,720
Speaker 5: and a half juice at bet rivers, I would play that.

416
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 5: As I mentioned, I have the projection closer to eighty eight,

417
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,160
Speaker 5: so I see a pretty significant gap between.

418
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Speaker 6: That ninety three and a half in my projection.

419
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Speaker 3: How about you, Colin White Sox twenty twenty two.

420
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Speaker 7: You know, Zilla, when you say a certain Cuban youngster

421
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 7: on the White Sox, you could mean like three different

422
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 7: players here, so you didn't really give away your bet.

423
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 6: I think the young was the key, but yes.

424
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Speaker 7: You know the White Sox, you know, full disclosure, that's

425
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 7: my team right there. I generally avoid betting my team

426
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 7: because they're they're going to make my heart hurt. Enough

427
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,280
Speaker 7: over the next six months. Anyway, without having any money involved.

428
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Speaker 7: I can spend an hour talking about this team. I'll

429
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Speaker 7: try to distill it to two minutes. They didn't do

430
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 7: enough this offseason to improve their roster from a team

431
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Speaker 7: that showed significant flaws against the Astros and the Alds

432
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,439
Speaker 7: last year. They still have question marks in right field.

433
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Speaker 7: They still have question marks in the back of their rotation.

434
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Speaker 7: If Dallas Kichel can rebound, if Michael Kopek can increases

435
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 7: innings limit, sure they're looking great. They lost Carlos rode

436
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Speaker 7: On during the offseason. The argument further over here is

437
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,359
Speaker 7: that they didn't have Luise Robert for most of the

438
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 7: season last year. They didn't have Alloy Hymns for most

439
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 7: of the season last year. They now have Michael Kopek

440
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 7: in the rotation, and they still won ninety something games

441
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 7: last year despite all of the injury bad luck that

442
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,400
Speaker 7: they had. So if you want an argument for the over,

443
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 7: it's that. The argument for the under is that Tony

444
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,160
Speaker 7: Larus is still going to cost them a few games.

445
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 7: The teams that they're battling in the division are getting better.

446
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 7: The Twins are going to be in about five hundred team.

447
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:38,120
Speaker 7: The Tigers are frisky, the Royals always give them trouble. So, Eileen,

448
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 7: probably a slide under with Sean here, but I'm not

449
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 7: betting this team I never will.

450
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:47,399
Speaker 2: Lineup feels promising, but like you said, Colin that the

451
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 2: back end of the rotation name recognition wise, it sounds good,

452
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 2: but there are some questions there if those names can

453
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 2: hold up as the season goes along.

454
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 3: So Colin mentioned that the Twins.

455
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 6: Twins are gonna win.

456
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 4: The lot Series.

457
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:06,160
Speaker 6: The Twins have won Ampton one nothing.

458
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 5: Ten quick trade.

459
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 2: The Minnesota Twins win totally eighty one and a half

460
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 2: heading into twenty twenty two, so they should be hanging

461
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 2: around right around five hundred. That's what that number indicates.

462
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,640
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty one, the Twins were in the basement

463
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 2: of the Division of the Central. They went seventy three

464
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 2: and eighty nine, so they take a leap by about

465
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 2: eight nine wins in terms of their projections for twenty

466
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 2: twenty two. Sean, Minnesota Twins in twenty twenty two, are

467
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 2: you a believer in a bounce back season?

468
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 5: I am a believer, and this team sort of reloaded,

469
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 5: you know, they swapped around a lot of pieces the

470
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 5: Josh Donaldson trade sending him to New York Carlos Korea

471
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 5: obviously a massive signing for me. This team sort of

472
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,959
Speaker 5: hinges on Byron Buxton and how healthy Byron Buxton stays

473
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 5: through sixty games. Last year, Byron Buxton was the best

474
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 5: player in baseball. You give me a full season Byron

475
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 5: Buckston last year against the full season of show Heo Tani.

476
00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 5: I think that would have been a closer race than

477
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 5: the great row no Tony races. Buxton had four and

478
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 5: a half wins above replacement in sixty games, so he

479
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 5: was on pace for a ridiculous season. He just can't

480
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 5: play more than fifty or sixty games a year. He

481
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 5: seems to get hurt every year. The market does like

482
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 5: Minnesota quite a bit. I'm low on the favorite, as

483
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 5: we mentioned, so if I'm low on the favorite envision,

484
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 5: I'm probably taking a chance on a long shot. The

485
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 5: Twins would be my long shot here to bounce back

486
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,880
Speaker 5: market projections anywhere between plus two twenty and plus three

487
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 5: eight to win the Central. You can still get them

488
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 5: at plus five seventy five at bet Rivers. I think

489
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 5: that's a tremendous bet. Probably my favorite long shot divisional

490
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 5: bet us we're going to count the Jays a two

491
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 5: to one, which I don't. My projection win total not

492
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 5: seventy nine and a half, so I actually lean to

493
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 5: the over. I've bet a over seventy eight and a half.

494
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,719
Speaker 5: They're still in eighty and a half at Caesars probably

495
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 5: take that.

496
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 6: The market production.

497
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 5: Has come up to like eighty four and a half

498
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 5: as they've continued to add pieces, and they just they

499
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 5: need to add pitching. They need to add more starting pitching,

500
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 5: maybe acquire Frankie Montas or Sean and I are from Oakland,

501
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 5: but they're going to have to make another move to

502
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 5: acchoire pitching. Otherwise I don't really see them as a

503
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 5: legitimate World Series contender, but they make another move, maybe

504
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 5: plus fifty five.

505
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 6: Hundred to win the World Series comes into range two.

506
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,719
Speaker 2: Pacoda's got him eighty six wins next year in that

507
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: lineup does look good. You mentioned Buxton has to be better,

508
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:16,959
Speaker 2: He's got to stay healthy.

509
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 3: So no Gary Sanchez.

510
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:20,679
Speaker 2: They've got to take the next steps as well, and

511
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 2: they could prove to be a top.

512
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 3: Third of the league lineup. In baseball, the pxtent.

513
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 5: Is absolutely there for sure. I mean that team could

514
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 5: hit a bazillion home runs. We've seen the bomb of

515
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 5: Boys before, so maybe there's a new version of them.

516
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 2: What do you think, Colin, You mentioned that this team

517
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 2: should be hovering around five hundred.

518
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 3: The Minnesota Twins.

519
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 7: Yeah, Zarella, you said they need to add more pitching.

520
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 7: You're not counting Chris Archer. They're nice little fighting for

521
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 7: the sixteen. That's like a negative if anything. Yeah, No,

522
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 7: but I do like the Twins. I love their off season.

523
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 7: I begrudgingly love their off season. I think Sonny Gray

524
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 7: was a really nice trade edition. They have my favorite

525
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 7: for AL Rookie of the Year in Joe Ryan right

526
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 7: smack dab in the middle of the rotation. I shouldn't

527
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 7: say the favorite frailrookie the year. My favorite bet frail

528
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 7: Rookie of the Year Joe Ryan Korea is obviously huge.

529
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 7: You want to talk long shot future. Zarrillo already waxed

530
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 7: poetic about Buckston, who I also love. He's sitting there

531
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 7: around fifty to one or longer for al MVP. You know,

532
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 7: it's just if he stays healthy, you know we'll be

533
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:28,640
Speaker 7: I will be saying that into our grave. I feel

534
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 7: like if Buxton stays healthy, he's an MVP, right So

535
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 7: I but I I like the over on their win

536
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 7: total that that's where I'm going to focus my money on.

537
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 7: Zerrilla mentioned getting it lower early. I still think there's

538
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 7: value at eighty one and a half. This team probably

539
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 7: has eighty four eighty five win potential. I don't really

540
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 7: like their long shot odds on division or Pennant anything

541
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 7: like that. But if if they add, you know they're

542
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 7: they're clearly the second best team in the division, which

543
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 7: puts them right within shooting distance of a wild card spot.

544
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 7: So keep an eye on their penadods. Maybe over for

545
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 7: the twins. That's where my money is going to be

546
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 7: going heading into this season.

547
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,439
Speaker 3: The Detroit Tigers are up next.

548
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 4: Detroy.

549
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 2: Their projection for twenty twenty two at least the win

550
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 2: total at several books seventy seven and a half wins.

551
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 2: Detroit won seventy seven games last year eighty five losses

552
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one. PECOTA's got them just sixty seven

553
00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 2: wins projected for next year. Detroit feels like a team

554
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 2: that can go either way. Right, they could be in

555
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 2: the hunt. I suppose hovering your five hundred or they're

556
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 2: just like they maybe they fall apart.

557
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 3: I don't know what to make of the Tigers. What

558
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: do you think?

559
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 5: Sean Tiger's probably my favorite under bet for this year,

560
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 5: and it's a bit ironic because I made them my

561
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 5: first futures vet of the twenty twenty two season. I

562
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 5: take a seventy five to one World Series future. Before

563
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 5: they started making any moves, they had a chance of

564
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 5: getting Carlo's Korea, potentially adding other free agents. I don't

565
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 5: really love what they did this offseason. Now they played

566
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:13,359
Speaker 5: above five hundred basically after April last year. They completely overachieved,

567
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 5: not overachieved, but they exceeded expectations and kind of legitimize

568
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:22,399
Speaker 5: how they performed. That said, every projection likes them to

569
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 5: go under this year. My projection is at seventy three

570
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 5: point six. There's a low of sixty seven from Pakoda,

571
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 5: a high of seventy five point seven from ZIP, So

572
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 5: everybody has them going under seventy eight and a half

573
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 5: by at least three wins. I'm under by five wins.

574
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 5: The market projection is under closer to six wins. This

575
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 5: is an easy under seventy eight and a half for me.

576
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 5: I actually got an eighty and a half when it opened,

577
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 5: But seventy eight and a half, seventy seven and a half,

578
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 5: even seventy six and a half, I think is an

579
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 5: acceptable play.

580
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 2: Colin your thoughts on the twenty twenty two Tigers and

581
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 2: why might this number be as high as it is? Like,

582
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 2: what's the devil's advocate on the top.

583
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 7: The devil's advocate is that they have a lot of

584
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 7: young dudes who are gonna who are going to potentially

585
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 7: break out. You know, we saw their young arms come

586
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 7: up last year. Casey Mez, Treek Scooball, Matt Manning, they're

587
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 7: all in the rotation now. They went through their fits

588
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 7: and starts last year, but these are still, you know,

589
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 7: top one hundred prospects. Casey Mees was a top five

590
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 7: prospect once upon a time, number one overall pick. They

591
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 7: have huge expectations for guys like that, and they're looking

592
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 7: at Eduardo Rodriguez to kind of be the anchor for that.

593
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 7: That was a nice early signing in the offseason. He

594
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 7: was one of the most He was one of the

595
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,239
Speaker 7: unluckiest pitchers in baseball last year if you look at

596
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 7: his advanced metrics compared to his ra and then they've

597
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 7: got Riley Green, and they've got Spencer Torkelsen, who hopefully

598
00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 7: will be up early. They should be up opening day.

599
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 7: I don't know if the Tigers are gonna screw with

600
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 7: their service time or not, but there's just so many

601
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 7: breakout candidates here where it's like, Wow, what if this

602
00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 7: team is the next loaded prospect team where they just

603
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 7: they come up and they blow everyone out of the water.

604
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 7: I will say I like the under as well. I

605
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 7: don't believe in that hype for the Tigers, at least

606
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 7: not in twenty twenty two, maybe twenty twenty three. But

607
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 7: I will say with Pakoda and their projections, they I'm

608
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 7: a little hesitant on how low Pokoda went on them,

609
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 7: just because Pokoda has such an extreme bias against free swingers,

610
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 7: and Pakoda hates Javier Baias and hates the Bias signing

611
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 7: and Bias is a very flawed player. But but there's

612
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:33,479
Speaker 7: there's clearly something there with Pakoda. All that said, I

613
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 7: still like the under because win Pakoda disagrees with the

614
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 7: win total by five or more wins. Pakoda is almost

615
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 7: always right, and we've got what a nine win difference

616
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:46,479
Speaker 7: here between the over under and what Pokoda says, So

617
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 7: I like it under, but I don't think they're quite

618
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 7: as bad as some of these projection systems say they're

619
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 7: going to be. And they're a very and they're probably

620
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 7: the highest variance team in the whole American League.

621
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they're not playing in a gauntlet of a division.

622
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 2: And like you both talked about, off the top of

623
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 2: the White Sox, I guess if we don't think the

624
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:05,719
Speaker 2: White Sox are going to be as great as they

625
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 2: were last year, then maybe they come back down to earth.

626
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 3: And it does pave way for one of these teams.

627
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 2: Three through five that we'll get to now to have

628
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 2: a path to being in contention as the year goes on.

629
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 2: So that brings us to the Cleveland Guardians. Yes, the

630
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 2: first year of the Guardians, Cleveland.

631
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 4: Rots, Clevelan rots, Cleveland rocks, Cleveland rocks.

632
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 2: So the previous regime in Cleveland eighty wins, eighty two losses,

633
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 2: two games under five hundred, nowhere close to contending for

634
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 2: the division, and really they kind of fell out of

635
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 2: it as the as the year wound down, Cleveland's win

636
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 2: total at seventy five and a half for twenty twenty two.

637
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 2: They've got some upside in this rotation, Sean. But with

638
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 2: that said, your thoughts on the twenty twenty two Cleveland Guardians.

639
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 5: Right, And my most anticipated moment of this podcast was

640
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 5: when you started to mention Cleveland to see what nickname

641
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 5: you would say after, because I mixed them up all

642
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 5: the time still and say the wrong one. But yeah,

643
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 5: Cleveland a team that the market is low on. They

644
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 5: seem like they're trying to style right. The last time

645
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 5: that this organization pays for fewer than eighty wins was

646
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 5: twenty twelve. Cleveland is the overlooked, ugly step child of

647
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 5: baseball who seems to over exceed expectations every year. They're

648
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 5: run about as well as any organization in the league.

649
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 3: And they never get respect.

650
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 5: Now, my projection has them at seventy eight point eight here,

651
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 5: the market has them at seventy seven and a half.

652
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 5: That over seventy five and a half sitting out there

653
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 5: at Caesars, I think you kind of have to play

654
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 5: the over just on principle. There's still enough competitive guys

655
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 5: on this roster that they should hit that total if

656
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 5: they basically keep all these pieces around at least until

657
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,479
Speaker 5: the trading deadline. I know, if they turn around right

658
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 5: now and flippose they Ramiras by the end of April,

659
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 5: I'm gonna look like an idiot and this is probably

660
00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 5: gonna go under. But with the roster that they currently

661
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 5: have structed, you basically have to play the over here

662
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 5: at seventy five and a half, how.

663
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 3: About you, Colin the Cleveland Guardians.

664
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 7: The Guardians are kind of the saddest franchise in baseball

665
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 7: that really talks about how well run they are. They

666
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 7: just produce talent after talent after talent. They're the best

667
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 7: organization in all of baseball at finding and molding and

668
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 7: refining young pitchers. When Shane Bieber was in the minor leagues,

669
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 7: he was a low ceiling, high floor kind of just

670
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 7: a strike thrower who they knew was going to get

671
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 7: the ball over the plate, but probably profiled at the

672
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 7: back of the rotation. A lot of people weren't even

673
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 7: sure he was going to stick of the rotation. They

674
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 7: turned him into a fire breathing dragon, a cy young winner.

675
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 7: They've been doing that for years with the Corey Klueber's

676
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 7: of the world and the Cliff Lee's of the world.

677
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 7: Just for years and years and years, but this ownership

678
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:55,239
Speaker 7: simply hasn't been willing to spend to supplement all of

679
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 7: their great player development fines. And that's why we find

680
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 7: themselves in a situation now we're for a decade, they've

681
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 7: been contending and now the window is closed and they

682
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 7: don't have a World Series out of it. I mean,

683
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 7: twenty sixteen, they came about as close as you can

684
00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 7: possibly come to winning a World Series without getting one.

685
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 7: But that's all a very long setup for me to say.

686
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 7: I do think that what you said is correct. You

687
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 7: have to kind of take the over on principle here,

688
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 7: But I'm scared to take their oh ooh, yep, that's right.

689
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 7: I'm scared to take their over mostly because it is

690
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 7: this team isn't going to bring in any more talent.

691
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 7: They are what they are. They have Jose Ramirez, they

692
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,719
Speaker 7: have Shane Bieber, and they have a lot of Hodgepodge

693
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 7: of mediocrity behind it. The Royals and Tigers. If their

694
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 7: young talent hits and they start to trend upward, it's

695
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 7: just gonna push the Guardians down. So if you're a

696
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 7: believer in the Tigers and Royals young talent, you've got

697
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 7: to hit the under here, and we could be looking

698
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 7: at a last place finished for the Guardians. I don't

699
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 7: quite think the Tigers and Royals are there yet, which

700
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 7: is why I'll go slight over on the Guardian. But

701
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 7: I'm not confident in it.

702
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 3: That brings it to the Kansas City Royals.

703
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 9: Everything's like a dream in Kansas City.

704
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 1: They've gone about as boom and they can go y.

705
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,800
Speaker 2: Kansas City in twenty twenty one finished seventy four in

706
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 2: eighty eight, just ahead of the Twins and just below.

707
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 3: The Detroit Tigers.

708
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 2: Pecoda's got a protected win total of sixty nine and

709
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 2: a half. Their win total on many books at seventy

710
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 2: four and a half, so plus five when you make

711
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 2: the comparison there. As we wrap up the Al Central

712
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 2: Sean Zarillo twenty twenty two, look at the Royals.

713
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 5: No value for me on the Royals for many win

714
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 5: total or divisional perspective. That said, I think the fact

715
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,280
Speaker 5: that we're talking about them last in this division shows

716
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,720
Speaker 5: that the floor of the division has sort of been raised.

717
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 5: I'm not particularly high on any of the teams in

718
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 5: this division, but I also don't think any team this

719
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 5: division is going to be amongst the worst in baseball.

720
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 5: They should all win around seventy mid seventy games were better.

721
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 6: One number that.

722
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 5: Stood out to me for Kansas City home run leader

723
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 5: co home run leader last year salvad Or Perez the

724
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 5: only player baseball to finish with more than fifty expected

725
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 5: home runs per stackass. He's around like fifteen to one

726
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 5: to eighteen to one in a lot of markets to

727
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 5: finish as the home run leader. This year, you can

728
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 5: get him at forty to one at FANDL. That's double

729
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 5: the price anywhere else, So go ahead and hit that

730
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 5: if you like. Salve to repeat is the home run king. Otherwise,

731
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 5: I really have nothing on the Royals.

732
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 3: Got anything Colin on the twenty twenty two Kansas City Royals.

733
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 7: I actually pretty strongly like their win total under This

734
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:36,879
Speaker 7: is another team where Pakoda and the books disagree by

735
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 7: about five and I think the Royals are pretty clearly

736
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 7: the worst team in this division this year. You know,

737
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 7: pending Cleveland settling off more of their spare parts. You

738
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 7: know they've got some good young guys coming up. We

739
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 7: saw a singer and Chris Boubitch last year, Bobby Witt junior.

740
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 7: Everyone's eager to see the number one prospect in all

741
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 7: of baseball. Hopefully we see him on opening Day, but

742
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 7: we'll see you know, the Royals have usually been more

743
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:04,879
Speaker 7: liberal than other orgs when it comes to promoting young

744
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 7: players and not screwing with service time, so hopefully we

745
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 7: see that here. But it's just there's just not a

746
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 7: lot to excite me. What Maorfield's now entering his mid thirties,

747
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 7: his speed's going to start to dissipate. I don't think

748
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 7: we're going to see a sal Perez bounce back. I

749
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 7: understand your value there, or not bounce back. I'm sorry,

750
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 7: repeat from sal Perez. I understand your value there, Sean,

751
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,919
Speaker 7: but we're it's still a catcher with all that wear

752
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 7: and tear on his knees entering his mid thirties, Carlos

753
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 7: Santana Andrew ben ATTINTI. It's just a lot of a

754
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 7: lot of average, is what I'm seeing here, and I

755
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 7: think that it's going to end up sinking them toward

756
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 7: the bottom of the division. I Zach Grinkey's runting that

757
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 7: rotation the shell of himself last year in Houston. Under

758
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 7: that that's going to be one of my solid American

759
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 7: League bets.

760
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 3: What year is ita?

761
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,399
Speaker 2: Zach Rinky is leading a Royals rotation right going back

762
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 2: in time's He doesn't know guys he's aged either, he

763
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 2: looks the same. We have one Division five teams left

764
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,400
Speaker 2: if you like what you hear. As a reminder, we

765
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 2: also have a nationally betting preview, so it'll be sure

766
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 2: to check that out, and also brand new Major League

767
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 2: Baseball betting podcast, Payoff Pitch during the twenty twenty two

768
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 2: season Tuesday and Friday slate, so subscribe, rate and review.

769
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:19,879
Speaker 3: We make the turn to.

770
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 2: The American League West, the reigning American League champion Houston Astros,

771
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 2: and that's end eleven.

772
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 9: How two guys get another?

773
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 6: This guy was made for this ballpark.

774
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 2: Astros went ninety five and sixty seven last year they

775
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 2: won the West. They beat the Red Sox and the

776
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 2: Alcs lost to the Atlanta Braves in the World Series.

777
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 2: Projected win total is slightly below what they finished in

778
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one. They're at ninety two and a half wins.

779
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 2: The Astros again a team that has a top rotation in.

780
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 3: Baseball, top lineup in baseball.

781
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 2: In terms of MLB dot COM's rankings for twenty twenty

782
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 2: two Sean thoughts on the Astros, the reigning champions of

783
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 2: the American League.

784
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 5: Another potentially vulnerable favorite here at another team worth taking

785
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,360
Speaker 5: a shot against. The teams further down the board in

786
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 5: the vision. We'll get to those in a moment. But

787
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 5: my projection on the Astros is eighty nine point eight.

788
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 5: It's basically ninety. The market is actually a win lower

789
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 5: than I am, and all four projections like them to

790
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 5: go under this ninety two and a half that's out there,

791
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 5: So I think the under ninety two and a half

792
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 5: is a decent play. Minus one tenant Fanuel Bett Rivers

793
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 5: hung in ninety four and a half last week. I

794
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 5: don't know what they were thinking. That was way too high,

795
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 5: so we smashed that one down. But the under ninety

796
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 5: two and a half it's still out there. I think

797
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 5: it'll it'll be close, but I think that's a solid

798
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:43,800
Speaker 5: underbet at that number.

799
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,359
Speaker 2: So they've got the number eight lineup according to MLB

800
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 2: dot Com and Baseball for this coming season, and then

801
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 2: you've got Justin Verlander leading this rotation and they think

802
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 2: that's what Colin. There's some concern there right Verlander?

803
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 3: Is there? Is there guy. Now this is no longer

804
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,760
Speaker 3: a loaded name worthy.

805
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 2: The name recognition is not quite there with the twenty

806
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 2: twenty two Astros as it pertains to the rotation, which

807
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 2: last year a three six three era ranks second best

808
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 2: in the AL, fifth best in the majors.

809
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 7: There's not some name recognition in that Astros rotation yet

810
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 7: behind Verlander, but I think there's going to be. I

811
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 7: don't really have a strong feel for the wind total

812
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 7: with the Astros, but Framber Valdez and Luis Carcilla are

813
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:25,879
Speaker 7: set to explode. I know Zarrillo and I were both

814
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,240
Speaker 7: big Framber fans last year. He's sitting at about seventy

815
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 7: to one for al Cy Young this year, So that's

816
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 7: a guy that I'm going to have my eye on

817
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 7: for sure. Also a guy that a lot of casual

818
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 7: fans might not know. It's Jeremy Pania, another consensus top

819
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 7: twenty top fifty ish prospect. It sounds like based on

820
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:47,760
Speaker 7: commons Dusty Baker has made he's primed to take Carlos

821
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 7: Correa's spot at short stuff. They might start him there

822
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 7: opening day, not mess around with the service time, and

823
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 7: he's a AL Rookie of the Year contender. You're seeing

824
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 7: him trend below the win some Torcal sins, and Rodriguez

825
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 7: is right now in the thirteen to one to fifteen

826
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 7: to one range. So that's someone that I might keep

827
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 7: an eye on as well. I don't have a strong

828
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 7: feel for the wind total. I'll probably go over just

829
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 7: because I don't believe in some of the other teams

830
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 7: down there in the division. But my money's not going

831
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:20,359
Speaker 7: toward the wind total right now.

832
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: Oh, there's a tease for us. We'll find out who

833
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 2: Colin might like in the West. The Mariners are the

834
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:28,240
Speaker 2: next team will discuss.

835
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 3: I don't believe it. It just continues. Fine Mariners.

836
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,719
Speaker 2: They finished second in the division last year ninety wins

837
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: seventy two losses. They made some noise down the stretch

838
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 2: in the twenty twenty one regular season. They were a

839
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 2: really fun team to watch down the stretch. Their projected

840
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 2: win total even with the Angels, we will discuss next

841
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 2: Maritters at eighty three and a half wins across many books.

842
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:56,280
Speaker 3: So folks think, Sean, they're.

843
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: Going to take a step back in twenty twenty two,

844
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:00,359
Speaker 2: or at least the projections say that.

845
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, So it depends the context. Depends what you define

846
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 5: as taking a step back. So they won ninety games

847
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 5: last year, so eighty four and a half would represent

848
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 5: a step back. But their Pythagorean record last year called

849
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 5: for seventy six wins, so that would actually be an

850
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 5: eight win increase. Now I improve their true talent rankings

851
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 5: by close to ten wins this offseason. I think they

852
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 5: upgraded their roster pretty substantially. But that said, the entire

853
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 5: market thinks that they're going under. I have them projected

854
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 5: at seventy nine point seven. Pakota Davenport ZIP have them

855
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 5: between seventy six and eighty three point three, so that

856
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,439
Speaker 5: Pakoda projection is a little bit more favorable towards the over,

857
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,879
Speaker 5: but at best, at best Pakota has them at plus

858
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 5: six hundred to win the division. So nobody actually projects

859
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 5: any divisional value here, and I have to bet an under.

860
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 6: I don't really love it.

861
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:53,280
Speaker 5: I know our staff is very higher than the Mariners.

862
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 5: Colin will tell you all the reasons why he's on

863
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:57,919
Speaker 5: the Mariners, and I see the talent on paper. Julio

864
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 5: Rodriguez is going to be an absolute stud he comes up,

865
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,439
Speaker 5: But the numbers just too high in my opinion, there's

866
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,240
Speaker 5: been an over inflation in the market because everybody expects

867
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 5: them to go over. There's an under eighty four and

868
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 5: a half at plus money at points bet. It's probably

869
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 5: my favorite bet for this division.

870
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 3: The twenty twenty two Mariners. Don't scare Colin.

871
00:42:16,440 --> 00:42:20,359
Speaker 7: With Church Zarrillo, I am drinking the Mariners kool aid,

872
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:24,399
Speaker 7: and I am not afraid to say it. I think

873
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 7: that this team has legitimate divisional aspirations, legitimate Pennant World

874
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 7: Series hopes, and I do think that there is a

875
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 7: good value on some of the numbers we're seeing here.

876
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 7: Robbie Ray gives them a legitimate from the rotation workhorse.

877
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:43,760
Speaker 7: Chris Flexen shout out to Mike Ianello is a steady

878
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 7: mid rotation guy. Logan Gilbert's going to take a leap.

879
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 7: They've got George Kirby sitting down there ready to explode

880
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 7: in the minors, and a lot of talent in that lineup. Also,

881
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 7: I mean, even beyond the young stars who were going

882
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 7: to see Julio Rodriguez and Jared Kellnick Adam Fraser was

883
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 7: a solid bringing. Jesse Winker was an alsar last year.

884
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 7: Maybe they get a bounce back from you Henneo Suarez.

885
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 7: I think that I'm going over their win total. I'm

886
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 7: solidly going over their win total. That's the bet I love,

887
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 7: and I'm definitely going to be dabbling in their division

888
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 7: future plus five hundred Pennant future plus two thousand World

889
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 7: Series future plus four thousand Mariner's Nation going wild. Wow.

890
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,960
Speaker 2: Next team in the Aos, we discussed the twenty twenty

891
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 2: two Los Angeles Angels.

892
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 3: You've got an angel with you right now, just got

893
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 3: here and he's going to help kid.

894
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 7: See's an angel?

895
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 5: Yeah he must.

896
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 2: That's the signal Angels eighty three and a half wins.

897
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 2: You'll see it many books as they're projected wind total.

898
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 3: In twenty twenty.

899
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 2: One the Angels they were seventy seven and eighty five,

900
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 2: So there's a projected bump this year, some improvement out

901
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 2: of the Angels. The lineup is great. They crack MLB

902
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 2: dot COM's top ten lineups across baseball.

903
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 3: Sean, how about the Angels?

904
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 2: Are they a team you see maybe being better than Seattle?

905
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 3: Are they can they threaten Houston? How do you stand

906
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 3: on the twenty twenty two Angels.

907
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 5: I do have them about four or three and a

908
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:18,880
Speaker 5: half wins. Four wins better than Seattle, and they're the

909
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:20,839
Speaker 5: team that I want to take a shot against the

910
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,879
Speaker 5: Ashers with. In the divisional market, there's still plus four

911
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 5: hundreds out there at several books now Pakoda Fangrafts. Depending

912
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:30,720
Speaker 5: on the projection you use, they'd make this line anywhere

913
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 5: between plus one eighty and plus five hundred, so a

914
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 5: huge range of outcomes on a team that seems like

915
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 5: it should have a huge range of outcomes. They could

916
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 5: go way under their win total if everybody gets injured,

917
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 5: they could end up being a World Series contender if

918
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 5: everybody stays healthy.

919
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 6: The pitching is going to be the big concern here.

920
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 5: How much does know Syndergart give them? How much more

921
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 5: do they get out of the pitchers behind him? But

922
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:55,720
Speaker 5: the lineup is obviously potentially tremendous, and if Anthony Rendon

923
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 5: is able to return to his previous levels of performance too, they.

924
00:44:59,000 --> 00:44:59,879
Speaker 6: Could be very good team.

925
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 5: So I see the upside here, and I think at

926
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 5: four to one it's worth taking a shot of their

927
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 5: divisional odds. Don't really love the World Series odds, but

928
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 5: I mean the market would make them as love as

929
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 5: plus twenty five hundred, So if you're interested, in the

930
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 5: Angels as a World Series contender. There's a plus four

931
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:16,360
Speaker 5: thousand out there at points bet that you could dabble

932
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 5: with as well, but I think the divisional play is

933
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 5: probably the best bet to sort of calculate their upside.

934
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 2: Colin just mentioned how he's high on the Mariners, and

935
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 2: when we discuss the Angels, I can't help but bring

936
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:30,399
Speaker 2: up show Heyo Tani and just the impact he has

937
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 2: in that lineup, and then how they figure out how

938
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 2: Joe Madden figures out how to use him in that rotation?

939
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:37,040
Speaker 3: Does that change it all?

940
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 2: Because they're just trying to keep this guy upright and

941
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,240
Speaker 2: healthy and they want to use him in every way possible.

942
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 2: So if you could, I mean, just for I think

943
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 2: folks listening, Otani is just a fascinating figure.

944
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 3: He's on the new cover of MLB the Show.

945
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 2: He's the most maybe the most popular player in the

946
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 2: game right now. But how does Otani factor in? And

947
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 2: I know what your Mariners love, Colin, how do you

948
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 2: look at the Angels in twenty twenty two?

949
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,879
Speaker 7: Look, I want the Angels to be good. I think

950
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 7: everyone wants the Angels to be good unless you're a

951
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 7: fan of another Al West team. Maybe it's sad that

952
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 7: we've seen Mike Trout in the postseason once in his

953
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:14,879
Speaker 7: entire career, and it was a three game suite eight

954
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:17,879
Speaker 7: years ago or something like that. We've never seen show

955
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,800
Speaker 7: Hee Otani in the playoffs. These are the two most

956
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 7: exciting players in all of baseball, apologies to guys like

957
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 7: Fernando Tatist Junior Vladimir Gerrera Junior. And they just play

958
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 7: on this completely incompetently run team and it's so frustrating.

959
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 7: How does a team with Shoeotani Mike Trout not make

960
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 7: the playoffs every damn year. But I'm not drinking the

961
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 7: Angels kool aid like I am the Mariners kol aid.

962
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 7: I'm grabbing. I'm grabbing the green glass here. I just

963
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 7: don't think they have enough around them. And I think

964
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 7: their pitching is an abomination. To use a word behind Otani.

965
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 7: You need Cindergard to be healthy. Willie Sandoval's kind of decent,

966
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:59,799
Speaker 7: Michael Lorenz and Jose Suarez, who you know, who are

967
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:04,799
Speaker 7: these guys? Their bullpen is still very mediocre. I don't

968
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 7: see it. I think that they're firmly third in the

969
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 7: Al West, behind the Astros, behind the Mariners. It's sad.

970
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 7: I want Trout and Otani. I want great things for them,

971
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 7: and I want great things for the game, but I'm

972
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 7: going under their wind total. I don't see their their

973
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 7: divisional odds or anything like that having any value.

974
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: I think you said it perfect though. Everyone wants them

975
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 2: to be good, but you're just being a realist. And yes,

976
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 2: as both of you mentioned, the pitching is what We'll

977
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 2: have to see how it unfolds and if it can

978
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 2: hold up that rotation.

979
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 3: But they might have to win a lot of games,

980
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 3: scoring a lot of runs.

981
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,840
Speaker 6: I just want to contextualize my divisional bat real quick.

982
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 6: And everybody wanting to the Angels to be good thing.

983
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 6: Angels under was my biggest bet last year.

984
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 5: I don't give a shit about the Angels, and now

985
00:47:47,600 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 5: that the Otani thing has happened, I think people are

986
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 5: overlooking how amazing this guy is. Like, you give me

987
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 5: Otani and a full year of Trout together. Jared Wall

988
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 5: showed improvements of a healthy Anthony rendonback a healthy Cindergarden.

989
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 5: There you look at the ups side on this roster,

990
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:05,399
Speaker 5: it's there. Joe Adele breakout, Brandon Marsh breakout. Why why

991
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 5: do the Mariners guys get expected to break out, but

992
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 5: the Angels top outfield prospects don't. I just find a

993
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 5: disconnect with the analysis that's going on around these two teams,

994
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 5: where the Mariners prospects, because they won ninety games last year,

995
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:22,279
Speaker 5: they're gonna break out, but the Angels prospects are That

996
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 5: doesn't really make sense to me. I get the the

997
00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:27,920
Speaker 5: bottom of the rotation. So it's an interesting dichotomy be

998
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 5: between how they were reviewed last year and this year,

999
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:33,400
Speaker 5: given that we know Otani can achieve this level of greatness.

1000
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 5: So it's a very interesting team to make.

1001
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:38,240
Speaker 7: I get it. And Adele is a great post type

1002
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 7: breakout candidate as a former number one prospect, and we

1003
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 7: didn't even mention read Debt Meers, another solid back end

1004
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 7: of the rotation rookie with upside. I think that the Mariners,

1005
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 7: I mean, other than Adele, Julio Rodriguez and Jared keller

1006
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 7: Nick are more highly thought of by prospect sites than

1007
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 7: anyone that the Angels have or had coming up. So

1008
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 7: I think that's probably the in a nutshell answer for you,

1009
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 7: but it's a fair point.

1010
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 5: They're kind of like the Bizarro Cleveland team because they

1011
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 5: spend money and they never make it where Cleveland never

1012
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:10,800
Speaker 5: spends money and it always seems to be in the hut.

1013
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 5: So it's you know, just switch GMS there and you

1014
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 5: might have a World Series contender in La.

1015
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 2: We head closer to the basement of the Al West.

1016
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:21,760
Speaker 3: The Texas Rangers.

1017
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:27,280
Speaker 8: Prairies guys are wide and hunt deep in the hut

1018
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:28,720
Speaker 8: of Texas.

1019
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:32,320
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty one, the Rangers, they were sixty and

1020
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 2: one oh two.

1021
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 6: They were right there with the Orioles.

1022
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,240
Speaker 2: Is one of the worst teams in the American League

1023
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:40,760
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one, but it seems like there should

1024
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:44,240
Speaker 2: be some improvement in twenty twenty two. When total hovering

1025
00:49:44,280 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 2: around seventy four and a half wins for this coming season,

1026
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 2: Pecoda's got them at seventy one point three projected wins

1027
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two. Sean, do we believe in an

1028
00:49:57,120 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 2: upgraded season for the Texas Rangers.

1029
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 3: We do?

1030
00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 5: They improve their true talent level more than any other

1031
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:06,160
Speaker 5: team this offseason. I mean, Semian and see Her were

1032
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 5: the obvious improvements, right, but this team added about seven

1033
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:12,800
Speaker 5: to eight other major league caliber players to a roster

1034
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 5: last year that was completely barren my projection is closer

1035
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:17,279
Speaker 5: to seventy six.

1036
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 6: The total came up.

1037
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 5: We bet at over seventy two and a half last week.

1038
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 5: It's kind of at seventy four everywhere, so I don't

1039
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:25,359
Speaker 5: know if I play it at this point, but I

1040
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:27,919
Speaker 5: do expect to see improvements from Texas this season, and

1041
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 5: I think they're headed in the right direction.

1042
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 3: Colin Texas Rangers.

1043
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 7: Love what the Rangers did this offseason, not just from

1044
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 7: an improvement standpoint, but from the standpoint of they were

1045
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 7: terrible last year and instead of saying, well, let's save

1046
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:43,440
Speaker 7: some money for five years, hope we hit on some prospects,

1047
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 7: they said, fuck it, let's spend a half a billion

1048
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 7: dollars and try to win right now. Love that mentality.

1049
00:50:48,760 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 7: More teams should have that mentality. Semian and Seeger obviously

1050
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:55,359
Speaker 7: improved the team. Mitch Garver improves the team. John Gray

1051
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 7: improves the team. I think that they're still pretty solidly

1052
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 7: fourth in the packing order in the Al West. There's

1053
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:07,320
Speaker 7: too much, too many question marks behind that rotation behind

1054
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 7: and including Gray. I am excited to see what Gray

1055
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:14,640
Speaker 7: can do outside of coors Field. I've always been a

1056
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 7: big Dane Dunning fan, but I don't see a lot

1057
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:20,040
Speaker 7: of value here on their win total. I think seventy

1058
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 7: four and a half, it's pretty well right in line

1059
00:51:22,239 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 7: with what we're going to see out of this team

1060
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 7: in twenty twenty two. So they're pretty much a no

1061
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 7: bet team for me.

1062
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:31,359
Speaker 3: Finally, the Oakland Athletics.

1063
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 8: Oh, you know, we're a major League baseball team, but

1064
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:40,279
Speaker 8: nobody recognizes us, not even in our own hometown.

1065
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 2: The A's in twenty twenty one, they won eighty six games.

1066
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:46,600
Speaker 3: They won eighty six and seventy six, but.

1067
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: Their protected win total across many sportsbooks in twenty twenty

1068
00:51:50,600 --> 00:51:53,400
Speaker 2: two is just sixty nine and a half wins. Pla

1069
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 2: Coda's gonna at sixty five point four. They've sold a

1070
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 2: ton of pieces. It sounds like they're gonna sell more

1071
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 2: from their rotation, from their lineup. They're not interested in

1072
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 2: winning games this year. It feels like Sean.

1073
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 6: No, probably not.

1074
00:52:05,440 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 5: And the projection I've to downgraded them in true talent

1075
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 5: by close to twenty one, so more than any other

1076
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 5: team are ready this offseason, you know, and as you said,

1077
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 5: they're going to continue probably to trade pieces. Frankie Montash

1078
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:18,920
Speaker 5: Sham and Iya probably out of there. By July at latest.

1079
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:20,000
Speaker 6: Right now, my.

1080
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 5: Projection is seventy point seven, so I'm right in line

1081
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 5: with the market. The other projection systems around the market

1082
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:28,760
Speaker 5: had them closer to sixty seven, so they would recommend

1083
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:31,319
Speaker 5: an underwager at this point. I know Colin is a

1084
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:33,000
Speaker 5: fan of the under as well. There's a low of

1085
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 5: sixty five from Davenport out there, so I get the under.

1086
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 5: I get the trends. I just have a tough time

1087
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 5: betting an under at a very low number against Billy Bean.

1088
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,799
Speaker 5: I know what their intentions are, but at the same time,

1089
00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:46,600
Speaker 5: like needing Billy Bean to lose one hundred games is

1090
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 5: not necessarily something I want to root for because he

1091
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 5: is very good at finding value. It did in places,

1092
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 5: So Colin, please tell me why you would smash this under.

1093
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 7: I think this is going to compete with Baltimore for

1094
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:02,240
Speaker 7: worst team in the American League, and compete with Baltimore

1095
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:04,799
Speaker 7: and Pittsburgh for worst team in all of baseball. There's

1096
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 7: something called Adam Ahler currently projected as their number five starter.

1097
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 7: They're actively trying to sabotage this rotation, this starting lineup,

1098
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 7: everything about this organization. It's like Major League the movie

1099
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:23,720
Speaker 7: come to life in Oakland right now, nri Eric Thames

1100
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:27,360
Speaker 7: is projected to be their starting first baseman. There's nobody

1101
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 7: good on this team. I don't know how else to

1102
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 7: say it. I don't see how this team doesn't lose

1103
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:35,080
Speaker 7: one hundred games. Elvis Andrews is probably gonna get traded

1104
00:53:35,160 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 7: if he's not terrible. I do kind of like Sean Murphy.

1105
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 7: There's a guy on this team that I like, Steven

1106
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 7: Piscotti's not He's a platoon bad at best now, and

1107
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:48,319
Speaker 7: he's their everyday right fielder. They're gonna trade Manaiah. They're

1108
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:52,359
Speaker 7: gonna trade Monts. One hundred losses seems easy. I know

1109
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 7: that you're hesitant to bet against Billy Bean. He's got

1110
00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 7: some magic up his sleeve or whatever. It's not two

1111
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:02,000
Speaker 7: thousand and six anymore. The game has passed being by

1112
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:05,280
Speaker 7: and this is a hammer under. This is my favorite

1113
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:06,680
Speaker 7: bet in the entire American League.

1114
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:09,240
Speaker 5: Their best player is probably suspended for half a season.

1115
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:12,839
Speaker 5: Two Oreano is uh right, yeah, so he's not coming

1116
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,439
Speaker 5: to back either. So it's definitely like a completely lost

1117
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:16,320
Speaker 5: season from the jump.

1118
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:19,399
Speaker 2: I'm definitely going to circle my calendar for the month

1119
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:21,919
Speaker 2: of April to watch Adam Aller pitch his first game

1120
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 2: with the Opland A's.

1121
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:25,920
Speaker 7: No disrespect to Adam Ahler. It sounds like he was

1122
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:29,800
Speaker 7: once upon a time Pittsburgh's eighteenth best prospect. No disrespect.

1123
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 3: You said something called Adam Aller. You didn't respect. That

1124
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:35,800
Speaker 3: is one of the phrases that you just can't say.

1125
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 2: After what you said, You're right before we run out

1126
00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:41,319
Speaker 2: your favorite bet from this division. We had some fun

1127
00:54:41,360 --> 00:54:43,320
Speaker 2: talking about this one sewn your favorite bet from the

1128
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 2: Al West.

1129
00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's it's the controversial you know under

1130
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 5: but it's the Mariners under eighty four and a half

1131
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 5: plus one hundred points bet. It's just no projection get

1132
00:54:52,040 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 5: up to that level. So I it's something that I

1133
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 5: have to take on principle. I see all of the

1134
00:54:57,640 --> 00:54:59,919
Speaker 5: reasons why this could go over. Don't get me wrong,

1135
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 5: I see all the upside with the Mariners roster, but

1136
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:03,800
Speaker 5: just the numbers pay.

1137
00:55:04,239 --> 00:55:06,120
Speaker 3: Colin favorite bet from the Ale West.

1138
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 7: Do you do you even need me to say after

1139
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:11,759
Speaker 7: what we just went through, it's Oakland. It's Oakland's under

1140
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 7: the worst team in baseball potentially.

1141
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 2: I thought you were going to really put yourself out

1142
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:19,759
Speaker 2: there and mention the Mariner's future and to win the pennant, and.

1143
00:55:19,960 --> 00:55:21,239
Speaker 6: He doesn't want to go ahead to head Brett.

1144
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 3: I'm scared.

1145
00:55:22,560 --> 00:55:25,920
Speaker 7: I'm just scared, Brendan to go against Sorillo as hard

1146
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 7: as I have in this episode.

1147
00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 5: Listen me betting a minus one ten versus you betting

1148
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 5: a plus four hundred. I think I think there's not

1149
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 5: much to be scared about there. You're You're definitely on

1150
00:55:35,080 --> 00:55:36,720
Speaker 5: the right side of the value button.

1151
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 7: Fair.

1152
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:41,399
Speaker 2: That concludes our American League Betting preview on the Action

1153
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:44,279
Speaker 2: Network podcast. Keep your eyes and ears out for the

1154
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 2: National League betting preview on this podcast as well, and

1155
00:55:47,600 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 2: want to mention again we have a new Major League

1156
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:54,759
Speaker 2: Baseball Action Network betting podcast, Payoff Pitch, that is now out.

1157
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 2: We have our first episode released and we will be

1158
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 2: coming to you during the twenty twenty two season every

1159
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:05,319
Speaker 2: Tuesday and Friday. In this podcast description, we have a

1160
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:07,520
Speaker 2: link that takes you directly to it, so you don't

1161
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 2: have to work all that hard to find us.

1162
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 3: For sure to join us there as well for.

1163
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:14,800
Speaker 2: Shonzillo Collum with Church, Brendan glas Sheen, thanks for tuning

1164
00:56:14,800 --> 00:56:16,880
Speaker 2: in to this American League Betting preview.

1165
00:56:17,160 --> 00:56:18,080
Speaker 3: The National League Betting

1166
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:20,439
Speaker 2: Preview is out there as well, and we will catch

1167
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 2: you next time on the Action Network podcast