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Speaker 1: And welcome to Lake Kick is live.

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Speaker 2: It is Tuesday night, November fifteenth, year of our Lord,

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty ten, and I.

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Speaker 1: Think perk pick last forever except in your memory.

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Speaker 2: The regular season almost ready to wind down, except for

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Speaker 2: the fact.

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Speaker 1: That we got two really really big weekends coming up.

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Speaker 2: We are jam packed high Tope prepared an anxious downtown Nashville, Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: I got the latest intel on the Auburn coaching search

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Speaker 2: moments from now. I have got full week twelve previews

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Speaker 2: and predictions all throughout the show.

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Speaker 1: We got a brand new JP poll.

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Speaker 2: The College Football Playoff Committee decided to wait until who

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Speaker 2: knows what hour.

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Speaker 1: Tonight to release their rankings. Not us.

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Speaker 2: We don't move aside for meaningless what month is it?

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Speaker 2: Yes November college basketball games? We soldier on. Also Raminul Express.

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Speaker 2: I've got like four or five added best bets tonight.

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Speaker 2: Some lines move today. I didn't anticipate it, but they did,

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Speaker 2: and so we're gonna move on those. Hoen Wall, Tennessee

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Speaker 2: is tuned in Ripley, West Virginia watching US. Wilkes Bury

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Speaker 2: or wilkes Bar as they pronounce it where I'm from

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Speaker 2: is tuned in in Pennsylvania and Atlanta, Georgia. We are

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Speaker 2: less than one thousand away from one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 2: thousand subs. In fact, let me go get an up

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Speaker 2: to date number. And as I'm looking that up, I

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Speaker 2: need to let you know something this Thursday. So the

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Speaker 2: next show we do is gonna be a little bit

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Speaker 2: different because I have no interest in flying to California Friday,

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Speaker 2: so I'm flying out there Thursday night to spend the

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Speaker 2: entire day out there Friday. And therefore we need to

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Speaker 2: move the start time for Thursday show up just a

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Speaker 2: little bit, like an hour and a half, So we

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Speaker 2: will start the Thursday night show if you're interested in

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Speaker 2: watching live six thirty Eastern, five thirty Central. Of course,

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Speaker 2: the replay will still be available, et cetera. We are

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Speaker 2: sitting at one forty nine five six, so we are

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Speaker 2: less than one thousand subs away from one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty thousand subs on the YouTube channel. And when we

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Speaker 2: get there, what a day it will be. I fully

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Speaker 2: intend on us being there by next week. Fully intent

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Speaker 2: on it. Director Colin is jacked about it, and so

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Speaker 2: is the rest of the staff. And please don't disappoint

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Speaker 2: them if you're not doing it for me, do it

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Speaker 2: for them.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for being here. We got a

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Speaker 1: lot to get.

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Speaker 2: We got many different places we need to snake our

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Speaker 2: way through in.

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Speaker 1: The world of college football. Tonight, here's where I want

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Speaker 1: to start.

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Speaker 2: I know that the Auburn job is open, right Colin,

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Speaker 2: don't even start the incut yet.

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Speaker 1: The Auburn job is open.

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Speaker 2: But we have found when we do this show, coaching

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Speaker 2: searches fascinate everyone. So I had one of you ask

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Speaker 2: the other day, why are you focusing on the Auburn

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Speaker 2: coaching search. Well, number one, it's the most high profile

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Speaker 2: opening out there right now. Number two, our traffic indicates

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Speaker 2: that everyone's interested in it because it's a keystone opening.

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Speaker 2: And what that means, obviously, is there's a chain reaction.

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Speaker 2: For example, I'll talk about this in a second. If

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Speaker 2: your guy at fill in the blank program takes the

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Speaker 2: Auburn job, well, then guess what that job's open now.

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Speaker 2: And then when someone takes that job, someone down in

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Speaker 2: tier three has an opening. So this is a very

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Speaker 2: big deal for the sport. It's not just a big

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Speaker 2: deal for Auburn or even the SEC. It's a big

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Speaker 2: deal for the sport. Okay, with that in mind, let's

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Speaker 2: dive into this, the Auburn coaching search. I talked to

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Speaker 2: a lot of people about this yesterday a few more

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Speaker 2: this morning, trying to get as good a feel on

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Speaker 2: this and engauge on this as I can. The first

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Speaker 2: thing I've picked up on, though, is there's a massive disconnect,

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Speaker 2: in my humble opinion, between the reality and the perception

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Speaker 2: of the quality of the Auburn job. I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to spend a lot of time on this because I've

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Speaker 2: already gone over it, but just to quickly reiterate, I've

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Speaker 2: found that in the regular Fanta sphere, if you will,

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Speaker 2: people who haven't been privy to the inner workings of

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Speaker 2: Auburn perceive it as a second class job.

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Speaker 1: They perceive it as a dead end job.

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Speaker 2: That is not what Auburn is at all. And please

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Speaker 2: don't misunderstand me when I say that's not just me talking.

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Speaker 2: That is the opinion of a lot of people within

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Speaker 2: the coaching industry, the agent industry.

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Speaker 1: They understand what Auburn could be.

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Speaker 2: I think John Cohen, the new ad there, obviously understands

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Speaker 2: what Auburn could beat.

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Speaker 1: That's why he came there.

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Speaker 2: I think he's going to do a heck of a

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Speaker 2: job packaging that and selling that vision, and it's not

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Speaker 2: too hard.

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Speaker 1: Did you check out their game last week?

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Speaker 2: Hey, they're going to play Western Kentucky this week where

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Speaker 2: they're only favored by five. By the way, check that

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Speaker 2: game out too. You'll have passion oozing out of Auburn

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Speaker 2: in all directions, and it's obvious the passions there, but

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Speaker 2: also the infrastructures there, and it hasn't been in the past.

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Speaker 2: So anyway, with that out of the way, I'm just

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Speaker 2: saying that to make you understand there aren't very many

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Speaker 2: guys out there who, if offered the Auburn job, are

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Speaker 2: turning it down because you can't win there. They may

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Speaker 2: have their own reasons, they may be happy where they are,

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Speaker 2: they may not like the sec whatever, but they're not

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Speaker 2: turning it down because Auburn doesn't offer everything it takes

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Speaker 2: to win, and they haven't in the pass necessarily recently,

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Speaker 2: but they will in the future. We've already gone over

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Speaker 2: that NILS. Their facilities now as of about five minutes ago,

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Speaker 2: are there. I think the transfer portal is going to

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Speaker 2: be very kind to Auburn if they get the right, guys,

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Speaker 2: So where are we standing right now?

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Speaker 1: I know Lane Kiffin is the hot name.

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Speaker 2: Sure got a little tangled there, Sorry, I know Lane

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Speaker 2: Kiffin's the hot name in this whole thing. I agree

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Speaker 2: with that, So that's legitimate smoke. If I had to

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Speaker 2: just guess today on who Auburn's head coach will be

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Speaker 2: week one of next year, I guess my guess would

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Speaker 2: be Lane Kiffin. Several things to keep in mind here,

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Speaker 2: we've seen coaching searches play out before.

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Speaker 1: You and I have both been through these before.

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Speaker 2: Intel on a coaching search can be both legitimate and incomplete.

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Speaker 2: And what I mean by that is, you've obviously got

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Speaker 2: the Auburn side of the coaching search, and then you've

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Speaker 2: got the side of a coaching search that is the candidates.

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Speaker 2: And let's say there are four candidates that are involved heavily,

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Speaker 2: and no one from the Auburn side is talking, and

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Speaker 2: only one or two of the candidates are willing to talk,

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Speaker 2: only one or two of the candidates have loose.

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Speaker 1: Lips in their camp.

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Speaker 2: Well, there could be some legitimate information coming out from

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Speaker 2: the candidate that in reality is running number three in

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Speaker 2: the pecking order. But since there is a precious lack

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Speaker 2: of information out there, and the camp of candidate number

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Speaker 2: three is the one talking. All of a sudden, Candidate

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Speaker 2: number three sounds very viable. Unbeknownst to everyone, maybe even

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Speaker 2: including those in that camp. That's not the first choice.

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Speaker 2: But you don't know that because no one in Auburn's talking.

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Speaker 2: And I'm speaking generically here. I'm just giving you a

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Speaker 2: little cautionary tale how these things have played out in

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Speaker 2: the past, and how you know that feeling like I do.

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Speaker 2: When you wake up one morning and someone has made

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Speaker 2: a hire and it's not the guy you thought it

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Speaker 2: was going to be. That's one one potential reason why

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Speaker 2: you get shot and misled, and some people are made

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Speaker 2: fools of. That's why I very very much fear clear

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Speaker 2: of the definitive statement when we're talking about coaching searches.

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Speaker 1: Number two.

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Speaker 2: Candidates do not always know which other candidates are in play.

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Speaker 2: This is a case by case basis, Souse. Sometimes agents

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Speaker 2: are representing multiple candidates that are up for the same job.

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Speaker 2: Jimmy Sexton represents Lane Kiffin. Jimmy Sexton represents about eighty

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Speaker 2: percent of the sport and candidates that would even vie

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Speaker 2: for this job, so that's not out of the realm

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Speaker 2: of possibility. But case by case, of course, there are

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Speaker 2: sometimes where I'm up for the job and you're up

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Speaker 2: for the job, and we don't even know that the

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Speaker 2: other is in play. Like I said about LSU, no

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Speaker 2: one knew Brian Kelly was up for that job. At

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Speaker 2: least no one who was talking knew that Brian Kelly

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Speaker 2: was up for that job until he got hired.

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Speaker 1: And so you probably had some.

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Speaker 2: Folks feeling pretty confident about their chances of landing that

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Speaker 2: job right up until they didn't get it, and all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden they say they hired who Kelly and

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Speaker 2: then they called her agent. How come you didn't tell

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Speaker 2: me Kelly was in the place in the mix for this,

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Speaker 2: And the agent says I didn't know, or agent probably lies,

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Speaker 2: but the agent probably says I didn't know, or we

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Speaker 2: just found out too late. So that's another thing to

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Speaker 2: think about. Number three, And this is where I'm cautious.

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Speaker 2: Every bit of intel I've gotten suggests that the Lame

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Speaker 2: Kiff and Auburn stuff is real, but there's always a

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Speaker 2: caveat on this.

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Speaker 1: Why are rumors allowed to persist?

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Speaker 2: Kiffen hasn't shot it down. Auburn hasn't shot it down.

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Speaker 2: Ole Miss hasn't shot it down. I've seen this happen before. Again,

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Speaker 2: to be clear, I think it's legitimate and have reason

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Speaker 2: to think that. But we've seen times before where there

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Speaker 2: is a prevailing rumor out there about a certain candidate

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Speaker 2: and a certain job, and no one shoots it down.

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Speaker 2: And what does the common mind take. No one shooting

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Speaker 2: it down?

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Speaker 1: To me, the common mind thinks, well, that means it

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Speaker 1: must be true. If it wasn't true, people would shoot

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Speaker 1: it down.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes maybe so might I suggest to you there are

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Speaker 2: also two other possibilities. Sometimes it's a very convenient smoke screen.

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Speaker 2: If I'm John Cohen and I have no interest in

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Speaker 2: hiring Lane Kiffen, but everyone thinks, I'm going to keep

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Speaker 2: talking as much as you want to because you're providing

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Speaker 2: a lot of smoke and a lot of haze over

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Speaker 2: the process. Meanwhile, I've interviewed four other candidates and you

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Speaker 2: haven't spoken their name because you're focused on one guy.

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Speaker 2: That's convenient for me. So one of the reasons that

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Speaker 2: those rumors are allowed to persist is because they serve

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Speaker 2: as a perfect smoke screen.

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Speaker 1: What do we also know to be true.

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Speaker 2: Another reason why rumors persist sometimes is because that candidate

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Speaker 2: has representation using those rumors that aren't being shot down

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Speaker 2: as leverage against their current employer. Now, none of that

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Speaker 2: I know to be happening in this particular case. I'm

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Speaker 2: just saying we've seen folks get burned by it in

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Speaker 2: the past. Maybe you've been burned by it in the past.

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Speaker 2: Maybe I've been burned by it in the past thinking

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Speaker 2: I know one thing when in reality it was another thing.

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Speaker 2: So I just want to say again, I think Kiffin

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Speaker 2: and Auburn is legit. I think he's the leading candidate.

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Speaker 2: I have no reason not to believe that, but I

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Speaker 2: do have very reason to be guarded and careful about this.

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Speaker 2: And the other thing I would encourage you to keep

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Speaker 2: in mind is I know you have a thirst for information.

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Speaker 1: Every hour, but the reality is there.

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Speaker 2: Is not new information to be had in coaching searches

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Speaker 2: every hour, So the thirst may be twenty four to seven,

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Speaker 2: no pun intended. The information is not that plentiful. And

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Speaker 2: this is where folks in our industry sometimes end up

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Speaker 2: losing some credibility because you just make stuff up, which

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Speaker 2: is what we're not gonna do. But absent some new intel,

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Speaker 2: what do you do, Well, you just go put your

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Speaker 2: forty seventh hot board out there, and because you know

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Speaker 2: it would generate some traffic, you just add a couple

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Speaker 2: of names on there. Why because your cousin texted you

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Speaker 2: about him a few hours ago. In reality, they're not

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Speaker 2: in play. But oh well, I'm not saying they're gonna

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Speaker 2: get hired. I'm just saying they're candidates.

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Speaker 1: Just be careful with that.

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Speaker 2: Just because while someone's not giving you new information every

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Speaker 2: five minutes, doesn't mean they're not plugged in.

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Speaker 1: Actually it's quite the opposite.

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Speaker 2: If you want to know the hallmark of someone who's

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Speaker 2: pretty plugged in on these things, they don't.

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Speaker 1: Give you a ton of updates.

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Speaker 2: If the fact is Auburn's going to hire someone after

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Speaker 2: the end of the regular season, what's going to change

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Speaker 2: in the next forty eight hours, what's going to change.

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Speaker 1: In the next seventy two hours.

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Speaker 2: Now, I'll tell you where it gets really interesting. And

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Speaker 2: you will never get a peek behind the curtain on this,

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Speaker 2: and I have been able to get somewhat of a peak,

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Speaker 2: but you're never allowed to tell the stories which sucks.

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Speaker 2: Maybe one day when someone retires, they'll they'll free us

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Speaker 2: up to tell the stories. But what's the most interesting

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Speaker 2: about coaching searches is when a head coach via back channels,

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Speaker 2: has agreed in principle to become the head coach somewhere

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Speaker 2: and they start constructing their staff also via back channels.

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Speaker 1: That would fascinate you.

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Speaker 2: That would be worth its own Netflix special because that

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Speaker 2: to me, if you were to really see the sausage

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Speaker 2: get made, that would be more intriguing than the process

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Speaker 2: that leads up to the head coach being highed, because

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Speaker 2: that's pretty straightforward.

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Speaker 1: You can imagine how that happens.

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Speaker 2: I think the process of putting a staff together would

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Speaker 2: be a little more interesting. And then you know when

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Speaker 2: you decide on your DFO or director of player personnel,

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Speaker 2: and then those people have to go tell their current employer,

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Speaker 2: sometimes out of the blue, in the heart of recruiting season,

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Speaker 2: hey i'm out.

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Speaker 1: It's not easy. Those conversations are not easy.

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Speaker 2: Oftentimes they're also taking other folks with them and it

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Speaker 2: can be very.

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Speaker 1: Uncomfortable, as you can imagine.

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Speaker 2: So if it does come down to Ole Miss and Auburn,

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Speaker 2: let's just circle back to this as we wrap this up.

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Speaker 1: If it does.

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Speaker 2: Come down to Lanekiffin being the guy, the number one candidate,

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Speaker 2: and hypothetically it is him looking at an offer from

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Speaker 2: Auburn versus a fresh offer from Ole miss One of

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Speaker 2: the things that I've been told consistently over the past

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Speaker 2: month is the facilities edge Auburn. And that's not a

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Speaker 2: shock to anyone. Money edge Auburn. That's not a shock

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Speaker 2: to anyone. If it comes down to either of those things,

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Speaker 2: you're choosing Auburn. There's an edge Auburn has here that

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Speaker 2: hardly anyone I have heard has spoken about. And it

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Speaker 2: comes down to state law. That guy right there wants

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Speaker 2: what any coach wants.

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Speaker 1: He wants the long term deal.

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Speaker 2: He wants the ten year, lifetime changing deal that Jimbo

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Speaker 2: has and that a lot of his peers have.

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Speaker 1: You can't have it in Mississippi. And it's not all

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Speaker 1: missus fault. It's not Mississippi State's fault. It is state law.

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Speaker 2: Those employees, those state employees cannot get contracts passed.

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Speaker 1: I think it's either four or four and a half

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Speaker 1: years now.

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Speaker 2: You could talk all you want to about how well

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Speaker 2: there could be special carve outs and special referendums, not

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Speaker 2: like they could do legally at Auburn or any of

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Speaker 2: a number of other institutions. Auburn can offer them a

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Speaker 2: ten year deal tomorrow if they wanted to. Ole Miss

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Speaker 2: cannot do that. And so they're playing a game with

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Speaker 2: one hand tie their back already, and there may be

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Speaker 2: a few fingers on the other hand tie behind their back.

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Speaker 1: That matters.

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Speaker 2: I've been consistently told that matters in this whole thing.

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Speaker 2: So just keep an eye on that. I told you

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Speaker 2: folks in Tampa. I told you folks in West Virginia,

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Speaker 2: it's going to be a big weekend for you. And

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Speaker 2: it's not just because you have really good football to watch.

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Speaker 2: Academy sports and outdoors. It seems like they open a

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Speaker 2: new store every five minutes. If you don't have one,

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Speaker 2: just wait, you will have one. Tampa got a grand opening.

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Speaker 2: Come in this week. You know the drill.

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Speaker 1: I'll give you the address Thursday. You know the drill.

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Speaker 2: Though, if you prove you went there, ten of you

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Speaker 2: are going to qualify for Chili of supremacy to be

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Speaker 2: sent to you. West Virginia, just outside of Huntington. You

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Speaker 2: got a new academy coming this weekend Academy Sports and Outdoors.

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Speaker 2: Now you know about our relationship with Academy. They are

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Speaker 2: our exclusive partner. Look around, as I tell you often,

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Speaker 2: Director Colin has two mirrors back here. We call them mirrors.

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Speaker 2: You would call them monitors. But you got two mirrors

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Speaker 2: behind me. But we got one logo in there because

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Speaker 2: Academy has filled both of them. And you're watching in

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Speaker 2: list for free, and that's because Academy did that.

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Speaker 1: Look.

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Speaker 2: I was in New Orleans last week and it's gonna

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Speaker 2: shock you to know.

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Speaker 1: I do not have a deep wardrobe. It's very thin.

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Speaker 2: Okay, the depth chart in my closet is nothing to

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Speaker 2: write home about.

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Speaker 1: So I got down there. It's seventy eight on Friday.

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Speaker 1: It feels great. I went to a state park just

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Speaker 1: north of Lake Poncha train. Beautiful. It was not beautiful Saturday.

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Speaker 1: It was gross.

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Speaker 2: It was upper forties missing in the morning, and I

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Speaker 2: did not pack a jacket.

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Speaker 1: What did I do?

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Speaker 2: I headed over to Academy Sports and Outdoors and had

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Speaker 2: a plethora to choose from. I pull a Magellan jacket

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Speaker 2: off the rat. I think I'm gonna pay eighty two,

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Speaker 2: one hundred dollars for it, and it was like twenty

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Speaker 2: five bucks. Frankly, I don't know how these people make

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Speaker 2: a profit, but they do and they're enough in the

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Speaker 2: black where they can partner with us.

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Speaker 1: So all's well. That ends well. So Academy Sports and Outdoors,

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Speaker 1: they got your hook up. Whatever you need. I don't care.

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Speaker 2: If it's workout equipment, I don't care. If it's a grill,

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Speaker 2: I don't whatever. They've got it for you. And you're

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Speaker 2: helping the show in the process. And if you can't

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Speaker 2: get there in person, Academy dot com is your hookup.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's roll on.

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Speaker 2: They're watching us in Macon, Georgia, chop Taw, Louisiana, Groveland, Florida.

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Speaker 2: We really appreciate you, guys. I am going to be

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Speaker 2: at the Rose Bowl this Saturday. Look at the smile

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Speaker 2: on my face. The Ever Given Saturday Tour is headed

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Speaker 2: to Los Angeles, California, Marina del Rey to be exact

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Speaker 2: this Thursday, and then I will just motor my way

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Speaker 2: right up to Pasadena on Saturday for USC versus UCLA.

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Speaker 2: And this thing, and I want you to listen closely,

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Speaker 2: is sold out. We got to sell out at the

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Speaker 2: Rose Bowl and I saw a report that it's going

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Speaker 2: to be the largest student section that they have ever

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Speaker 2: filled at the Rose Bowl for a UCLA game, like

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Speaker 2: over sixteen thousand students. That's enough kids to pack most

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Speaker 2: arenas and then some. So good on UCLA. I know

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Speaker 2: it doesn't hurt that you're playing your crosstown rivals. I

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Speaker 2: know you guys will travel well from Southern cal But

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Speaker 2: this is going to be really fun. So my impression

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Speaker 2: of the Rose Bowl will be that of a sold

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Speaker 2: out venue, and that's all I'm gonna remember. You show

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Speaker 2: me these pictures of open sections fifteen minutes before kickoff

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Speaker 2: won't mean anything to me. I'll see it sold out

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Speaker 2: every given Saturday tour effect. Don't think we didn't have

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Speaker 2: something to do with that. USC clinches the Pac twelve

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Speaker 2: Championship berth with a whim.

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Speaker 1: They are in the title game.

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Speaker 2: If they win Ucla, they need to win out and

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Speaker 2: they need a Utah to beat Oregon. That game is

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Speaker 2: gonna happen after this game. In fact, it'll start while

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Speaker 2: this game is still going on. I am sensing something.

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Speaker 2: You can tell me if you feel it too. I'm

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Speaker 2: sensing people selling on UCLA a little bit, which is understandable.

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Speaker 2: They just lost to Arizona, right, This is why we

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Speaker 2: always preach on this show. At least judge performances, judge

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Speaker 2: judge teams on that day, don't judge.

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Speaker 1: Teams by record.

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Speaker 2: If you were to not watch Ucla Arizona and you

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Speaker 2: just saw the final score, you would say, wow, Ucla

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Speaker 2: lost at home to a sub five hundred team, which

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Speaker 2: is all true. I watched the game. Arizona played exceptional football.

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Speaker 2: Ucla did not play a bad brand of football. It's

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Speaker 2: what I'm trying to tell you. So I watched it

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Speaker 2: and I said, that's got a lot more to do

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Speaker 2: with Arizona than Ucla. Good for them, It's just a win,

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Speaker 2: That's what it was. It was a really good football

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Speaker 2: game and it was a win. Well, some folks can't

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Speaker 2: leave it at that, and so some folks have to say, uh,

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Speaker 2: they're done.

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Speaker 1: They're not done at all.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they're a two and a half point dog

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Speaker 2: against usc with a chance to still play for a

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Speaker 2: Pacteal championship. That's what they are, and so I'm not

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Speaker 2: selling on them at all. They played a very high

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Speaker 2: level quarterback last week. They will again this week. So

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Speaker 2: let's dive into the match up a little bit, because

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Speaker 2: what I don't want you to forget lost in all

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Speaker 2: the noise of UCLA getting upset last week is USC

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Speaker 2: drummed Colorado. They lost Travis Dye for the season, and

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Speaker 2: he was well on his way to another one thousand

401
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Speaker 2: yard rushing season, probably eleven or twelve hundred if they

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Speaker 2: went to the Pac twelve title game, in a Rose

403
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Speaker 2: Bowl game or playoff, who knows. And so they lost him,

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Speaker 2: and I'm looking at Austin Jones. Now, he's carried the

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Speaker 2: ball fifty two times this year. He's averaging over six

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Speaker 2: yards per carry. It has just been in a lot

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Speaker 2: more limited action, and they're gonna need him. They're gonna

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Speaker 2: need him big time. Because as you dive into the

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Speaker 2: matchup a little bit here, there's one side of this

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Speaker 2: equation that really heavily leans toward UCLA. You got to

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Speaker 2: dive a little bit, though, So explosive plays in general,

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Speaker 2: I think we'll decide this. Sometimes it's third down, sometimes

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Speaker 2: it's turnover. Sometimes you know it's a specific position grouping

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Speaker 2: versus another specific position grouping. I think the explosive play

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Speaker 2: metric is one that is talked about a lot twenty

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Speaker 2: plus yard game on a play.

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Speaker 1: UCLA, where are they at right now?

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Speaker 2: They're second in the PAC twelve in that category, seventh

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Speaker 2: in college football USC, first in the PAC twelve in

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Speaker 2: explosive plays per game. They are fifth in FI.

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Speaker 1: Both of them way up there.

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Speaker 2: So you would think number one, that screams a lot

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Speaker 2: of points, and it probably does. But as you dig

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Speaker 2: a little bit more into the defensive side of things here,

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Speaker 2: that's where UCLA has a shot. Now if they play

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Speaker 2: up to their statistical profile against explosive plays, they are

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Speaker 2: eighth fewest nationally, not just in the PAC twelve. They've

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Speaker 2: allowed the eighth fewest twenty plus hour plays nationally. And

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Speaker 2: the thing about leaning on the chunk play is we've

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Speaker 2: seen it a couple times with US this year. When

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Speaker 2: you can't get it, your offense can grind to a halt.

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Speaker 2: Think about the Oregon State game earlier this year, for example.

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Speaker 2: You turn it on and it's like, Colin, can you

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Speaker 2: show me USC schedule. I know it was a low

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Speaker 2: scoring game. I can't remember exactly how low scoring. But

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Speaker 2: you turn that thing on and you think, but US

437
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Speaker 2: has got all this firepower offensively, how in the world

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Speaker 2: are they sitting here and it's a seventeen to fourteen game.

439
00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 2: Oregon State led that thing fourteen to ten or fourteen

440
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 2: to seven late.

441
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 1: Well, the reason is because you're not getting those chunk.

442
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,879
Speaker 2: Plays, and that's how easily your production can fall off

443
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 2: a cliff. So if UCLA can just hold up their

444
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 2: end of the statistical profile bargain there, that's a big deal.

445
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 2: Here is how USC flips the script even if all

446
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:21,200
Speaker 2: that plays out according to plan, and that is obviously turnovers.

447
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,919
Speaker 1: We haven't spoken about it recently because.

448
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 2: It's just become a familiar theme with USC. You kind

449
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,120
Speaker 2: of take it for granted. But they still lead FBS

450
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 2: in turnover margin. They're plus seventeen. So you can do

451
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 2: all you want to in the category of limiting explosive

452
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,920
Speaker 2: plays and you can record a few yourself. You get

453
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 2: down in the red zone, you turn the ball over,

454
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:42,880
Speaker 2: USC ends up plus two plus three. That matter, You're

455
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 2: still gonna lose the game. Let's take a look at

456
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,919
Speaker 2: what the model thinks. The Vegas number right now is

457
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 2: USC minus two and a half. For the record, I

458
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 2: think the Trojans were still going to be a slight

459
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 2: favorite even if UCLA won last week against Arizona. I

460
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 2: don't think it tilted the line all that much. Our

461
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 2: model is at a pit we think with home field

462
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 2: factored in for UCLA, and also they're in wounded animal mode.

463
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 2: Now Ucla is gotta win this thing. We think that

464
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,400
Speaker 2: it's a pick. I'm telling you where I'm leaning here,

465
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 2: and I made the decision about five minutes ago. Somehow,

466
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 2: I think UCLA is going to find a way to

467
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 2: win this game.

468
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 1: When you look at the teams they've already played.

469
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:26,679
Speaker 2: They've already played Oregon, They've already played Utah and beat Utah.

470
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,120
Speaker 1: USC played them and lost. Now one was on the road,

471
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 1: one was at home.

472
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 2: I think that UCLA group's a tad bit more battle

473
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 2: tested than Southern Cal. I think they're in a more

474
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 2: desperate position.

475
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 1: Than Southern Cal.

476
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 2: I think they match up well along the lines of scrimmage,

477
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 2: and I do like that defense can somewhat limit the

478
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,360
Speaker 2: big play. Right now, the odds to win the Pac

479
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 2: twelve Championship, USC is the favorite, but Oregon's right there

480
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 2: with them, and Utah is right there with them.

481
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 1: So it's basically a three way tie.

482
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 2: Plus two hundred and then a couple of them at

483
00:22:58,000 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 2: plus two ten and then you.

484
00:22:59,280 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 1: Fall off cliff.

485
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 2: UCLA's all the way down at plus one thousand. That

486
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 2: would move significantly obviously if UCLA and Utah both win

487
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 2: a Saturday. So it's not that strong of a feel,

488
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 2: but I'm going to lean Ucla to win it, and

489
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 2: I'll take the points if you want to offer me

490
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 2: the points. New JP poles out or so they tell me,

491
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 2: you know, and they normally don't lie to me about

492
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 2: this because I have to turn it into them. New

493
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 2: JP poll out right before the college football playoff rankings.

494
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 2: This is the week twelve edition, and what we have here.

495
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 2: What we have is a failure to communicate between myself

496
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,640
Speaker 2: and the model because there's one team and I think

497
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 2: you know who I'm talking about, But if you don't,

498
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 2: I'll tell you in a second where I'm just not

499
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 2: hearing it from the model anymore. Every other team you're

500
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 2: about to see in this poll is exactly where the

501
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,959
Speaker 2: model says they should be power rated, not ranked based

502
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 2: on who would be favored over who on a neutral

503
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 2: field tomorrow. But I'm not having any of Texas, so

504
00:23:57,960 --> 00:23:59,479
Speaker 2: I'll talk about them when I get there. Let's take

505
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 2: a look at twenty five through twenty one. We got

506
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 2: we've got some teams that are surging late. So that's

507
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 2: the first thing you need to know. Don't don't punt

508
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 2: on all these teams because teams like FSU, for example,

509
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 2: they're just powering up the rankings or the ratings. So

510
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 2: Minnesota's at twenty five. They play IEW this Saturday. Floyd

511
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 2: of Rosedale, the Floyd as he's known around here, is

512
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 2: on the line. Wisconsin pretty much the same place they

513
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 2: were last week. They're at twenty four. Baylor trending in

514
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 2: the wrong direction. They're at twenty three. Mississippi State pretty

515
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 2: steady at twenty two. Okay, now let me tell you

516
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,919
Speaker 2: what you're looking at with Texas. Here. Texas has fallen

517
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,199
Speaker 2: fourteen spots to twenty one. I want to let you

518
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 2: know this ratchet model over here wanted me to put

519
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 2: Texas at nine after another abysmal performance. They wanted me

520
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 2: to put Texas at nine. I'm not going to do it,

521
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 2: and so instead that is a manual override, which I

522
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 2: never do. I did it with Tennessee at the beginning

523
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 2: of the year and shouldn't because the model was right

524
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 2: on Tennessee. I'm doing it with Texas here. I am

525
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 2: not putting them in the top ten. I know that

526
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 2: that FPI still has them in the top ten. Connolly,

527
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 2: all all the advanced guys, Rob Burye, they all have

528
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 2: them in the top ten. And I know why they

529
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 2: have them there, because my model has them there. I'm

530
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 2: just not going to stand for it. So I put

531
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 2: Texas at twenty one, and I want to stress I

532
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 2: did the model, didn't I put Texas at twenty one.

533
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 2: Sue me, Let's go top twenty. Everything else is according

534
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 2: to what the model says. UCF surging at the right time.

535
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: I think that loss against East Carolina did them a

536
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 2: lot of good. Earlier this year, Oregon State's still there

537
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 2: at nineteen, Notre Dame's still there at eighteen. Ucla didn't

538
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:41,679
Speaker 2: drop them a lot. I told you, performance wise, they

539
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 2: played fine. They just caught a red hot Arizona on

540
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 2: any given every given Saturday, and any given Saturday. Ole

541
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 2: miss is sixteen didn't drop them a whole lot either.

542
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 2: And now we enter the top fifteen. Washington is exploding Washington.

543
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 2: I was surprised them had them at twenty seven last week. Frankly,

544
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 2: and since there's not a big point gap between you know,

545
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 2: ten and thirty.

546
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 1: It's very easy.

547
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 2: If we bump you up a couple of points, you

548
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 2: jump from being unrated to number fifteen. Utah is right

549
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 2: there at fourteen. Florida State, man, look at that. Florida

550
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 2: State is up to thirteen. We think they are one

551
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 2: of the fifteen best teams in the country right now.

552
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 2: So Mike Norvel, what a testament to them at Florida State.

553
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 2: They're finishing strong. Kansas State's there may very well be

554
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 2: headed to the Big twelve championship game. Plumbs and still eleven.

555
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 2: They were unchanged from last week Top ten time. I

556
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 2: don't I don't have the drum roll effects. I'm not

557
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 2: gonna try.

558
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: LSU didn't change minds. Some people thought LSU was.

559
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 2: Gonna fall because of what we saw at Arkansas. Well,

560
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 2: we got what we thought we would get from them

561
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 2: at Arkansas. So again, the model puts you somewhere, then

562
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 2: it spits out of projection. Then you largely fulfill the projection.

563
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 2: It's not gonna drop you because it is judging you

564
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 2: based off its projection, not based off the public overwhelmingly

565
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 2: thinking LSU was gonna win by double digits. That doesn't

566
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 2: matter because it wasn't based in reality. TCU is up

567
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 2: three spots to number nine. I think you probably look

568
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: at that and think TCU is too low. I will

569
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,919
Speaker 2: tell you we're higher on TCU than most of the

570
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 2: advanced guys are. So if anything, take it up with them,

571
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 2: not me. Oregon down a couple of spots there. There

572
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 2: could be something going on with Oregon that would affect this,

573
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 2: but I can't confirm it. So I'm going to leaven

574
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 2: at eight right now and I'll talk about it later

575
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 2: when we do their game prediction. USC's at seven. Penn

576
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,360
Speaker 2: State is a very very solid team right now, and

577
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 2: I think it surprises a lot of people because they're,

578
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 2: you know, they're already past their opportunity games.

579
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: They lost to Michigan.

580
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 2: They lost to Ohio State, which by the way, doesn't

581
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,239
Speaker 2: prove they don't belong at number six. It proves they

582
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 2: don't belong above either of those teams per se. But

583
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 2: both of those teams are power rated above them. So

584
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,880
Speaker 2: just losing to teams rated above you doesn't prove anything

585
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 2: other than you're probably where you need to be.

586
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 1: And then we got them at six.

587
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 2: James Franklin has got them playing a really really good ball,

588
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 2: and it's out of the spotlight, but they got them.

589
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:15,360
Speaker 1: Playing really good ball. Right now.

590
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 2: Top five, we have a top five that is unchanged

591
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 2: for only the second time this year. It goes Bama five,

592
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 2: Tennessee four, Michigan three, Ohio State two, Georgia one. You're

593
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 2: just not going to get a lot of movement here

594
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 2: this time of year. Now here's where I differ from Vegas.

595
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 2: Vegas would still have Alabama above both Michigan and Tennessee.

596
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 2: Bama would be favored neutral against Michigan or Tennessee tomorrow.

597
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 2: You think of that whatever you will, I'm telling you that's.

598
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 1: The way it works. We dinged Alabama a little bit more,

599
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,479
Speaker 1: our model did, so it's very very fractional, but we

600
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: would have Bama.

601
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 2: The model would spit out Tennessee over Obama. The model

602
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 2: would spit out Michigan Obama on a neutral field points

603
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 2: spread wise.

604
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 1: Now, who would I bet if it did that? TBD.

605
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 2: I mean, I got a game coming up in a

606
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 2: second where the model favors one team and I'm gonna

607
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 2: go the other direction.

608
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 1: So there you go.

609
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 2: Top ten there the top five are unchanged. Penn State surprise,

610
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 2: probably to a few people I know good and well.

611
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 2: If I put Penn State and USC on a neutral field,

612
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 2: every single one of you out there sands about ten

613
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 2: percent would lean USC.

614
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 1: That's mine. I'm just telling you what the model thinks.

615
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 2: And the model made us a lot of Christmas money

616
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: last week and probably will again this week.

617
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 1: If I know the model like I think I do.

618
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 2: Just because we're on the out right now doesn't mean

619
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 2: I don't still respect the model. Kind of like Jimbo

620
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,479
Speaker 2: and Saban, you know, I can trash talk in the model,

621
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 2: but as it gets closer to time for us to

622
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 2: get along, I can praise the model.

623
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 1: I'm man enough to do that, are you, Model? I

624
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 1: don't know about that. Very silent over here.

625
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 2: Okay, let's get back to game predictions. TCU and Baylor

626
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 2: Big noon kickoff. It is the twelve Eastern kick on Fox.

627
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 2: How much did we learn from LSU almost falling to

628
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 2: Arkansas last week? Because I gotta be real with you,

629
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: this game feels exactly like that. Remember what happened? Let

630
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 2: me refresh everyone's memory. LSU upset Sama, just like TCU

631
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 2: just upset Texas for example, and everybody's flying high and

632
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 2: everyone's talking about what they could do and how far

633
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 2: they could go, and then Vegas says, well, you're going

634
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 2: to go on the road this week and we're going.

635
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 1: To favor you by three.

636
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 2: And there you go, TCU on the road against Baylor.

637
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 2: Baylor just got smashed by Kansas State and TCU is

638
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 2: going on the road and they're favored by two and

639
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: a half or three, depending on where you look.

640
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: And some of the same.

641
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 2: Folks who lost there, you know what on LSU minus

642
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 2: three and a half are going to do the exact

643
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 2: same thing here with TCU. The difference is TCU may

644
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 2: cover who knows. That's why we do the game prediction.

645
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 2: So it is a back to back road spot for them.

646
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 2: It is a revel spot for Baylor. Do you remember

647
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 2: this game last year? This was the one where Baylor

648
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: went on the road and they lost by two and

649
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 2: that was the day TCU did not even have their starter,

650
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 2: and that stuck with David Randa called very next week.

651
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 2: You know, Baylor comes home and they what do you know,

652
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 2: they upset Oklahoma. We were there for that one. So

653
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 2: here's part one for Baylor. You gotta do more of

654
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 2: what Texas did last week. I mean, Texas ground that

655
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 2: TCU offense to a halt.

656
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: And that's not easy to do because even after that's

657
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 1: baked in to the statistical profile for TCU, they're still

658
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 1: averaging forty point five a game. So even with that,

659
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 1: what did they score seventeen or thirteen or whatever they

660
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 1: scored last week? Even with that forty point five per game,

661
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: can't have that can because I cannot count on Baylor

662
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 1: to match that. So that's the first thing you need

663
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:50,959
Speaker 1: to do.

664
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 2: Defensively, got to do a little bit of what Texas did.

665
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 2: And number two, this team here, TCU thirteen touchdowns a

666
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 2: fifty plus by a mile. That leads FBS. The second

667
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 2: closest team has like nine of them. You know what

668
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 2: I said, thirteen touchdowns of fifty or more yards, not

669
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 2: twenty fifty or more.

670
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 1: Quintin Johnson, you're watching him on your screen right now.

671
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 2: Enjoy him while he plays on Saturday, cause the Sunday

672
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 2: games about to get their hooks in him before too

673
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 2: much longer. Stats and Info comes to me today and

674
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 2: it is paper pop worthy what I'm about to read

675
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: to you, Max Duggan. So what do you know about

676
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 2: him when he's having a phenomenal season. He's playing quarterback

677
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 2: for TCU.

678
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 1: Golf. Clap for Max Duggan.

679
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 2: Okay, but here's where it's time for round of applause

680
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 2: for Max Dugan.

681
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: He is one of three quarterbacks.

682
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 2: To start ten and zero with twenty five plus touchdowns

683
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 2: and three or less turnovers in recent history. We don't

684
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 2: even know how far back this goes. The only guys

685
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 2: who have done it like this were Mac Jones in

686
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 2: twenty twenty and Justin Fields I think twenty nineteen or

687
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 2: something like that.

688
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 1: Those guys were really, really, really good.

689
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 2: And out of nowhere, from the top rope, from the rafters,

690
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 2: here comes Max Duggan and steing Attire. Sam, You think

691
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 2: that's good, Watch what I'm about to do in Fort

692
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 2: Worth with a new head coach who doesn't.

693
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: Even name me the starting quarterback coming out of fall camp. Yeah,

694
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 1: all that's real. All that really happened.

695
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 2: We're probably gonna see Baylor be surprisingly aggressive. If I

696
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 2: just had to guess here, I think they'll be surprisingly

697
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 2: aggressive offensively.

698
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 1: Pause. Think about where they are right now.

699
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 2: They're in a situation where they've already lost I think

700
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 2: four games. They have underachieved relative to expectation this year.

701
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 2: They just got smoked doing it conventionally last week. They've

702
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 2: got to try new things. They've got to do things

703
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 2: that are unnatural for what they have done so far

704
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 2: this year.

705
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 1: That's common sense. Okay, you don't even have to know

706
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 1: football to understand that.

707
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 2: The question is do they get in a situation where

708
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 2: they're having to trade points and keep up or do

709
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 2: they find the ability to slow TCU down. Is it

710
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 2: a game played in the upper twenties or the low forties.

711
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 2: I mean, that probably makes all the difference in the

712
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 2: world here. As good as TCU is on third and

713
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:16,320
Speaker 2: fourth downs, Baylor's defense is bottom twenty five nationally.

714
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:18,360
Speaker 1: That's what has to change.

715
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 2: And in a one game setting it can not quite

716
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 2: as random as turnover margin, but third down conversion percentage.

717
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:29,280
Speaker 2: You know, in a one game setting, your bottom twenty

718
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 2: five national unit, if you hold them to like five

719
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 2: of thirteen or four of thirteen, yeah, you can end

720
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 2: up winning the game. You can end up flipping the game.

721
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 1: But that's a that's rough. I mean, they give.

722
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 2: Up forty five point eight percent third down conversion percentages.

723
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 2: That is very Undava Randa like, let's take a look

724
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 2: at what the model thinks. The number right now in

725
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 2: Vegas TCU minus two and a half. The model is

726
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 2: it's feeling what the odds makers are feeling. In fact,

727
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 2: we've got TCU minus one and a half. I think

728
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 2: that a lot of you look at that and you

729
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 2: can't wrap your mind around it because you can't get

730
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 2: past what you just saw. And all I can tell

731
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 2: you is it is all about regression and progression. To

732
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 2: the mean, Baylor is not as bad as you saw

733
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 2: last week. TCU probably not quite as good as you

734
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,959
Speaker 2: saw last week. You just saw one sample of a game.

735
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 2: If you've simulated each one of them a thousand times,

736
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 2: you saw.

737
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 1: Two outliers worth of results.

738
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 2: Having said that, I can't wrap my mind around it either,

739
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 2: because I don't know how in the world Baylor slows

740
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 2: them down and combines a good enough offensive performance to

741
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 2: get this done.

742
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: So if you think TCU is a sucker, bet here,

743
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 1: I'll be the sucker with you.

744
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 2: I'm not actually laying money on it anyway. We're just

745
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: holding hands and we're going along for the free ride.

746
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take TCU to win, and I'm gonna take

747
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 2: him to cover in Waco and that's that a TCU

748
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 2: right now, the minus one forty odds on favorite to

749
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 2: win the Big Twelve championship. They are highly favored to

750
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 2: face Kansas State. That's the matchup we're probably gonna get.

751
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:04,320
Speaker 2: We've already seen it, by the way, and it was

752
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 2: a tale of two halves, wasn't it. Kansas State had

753
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 2: a twenty eight to ten lead and they lost. Yes,

754
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 2: so a lot of intrigues still left in the Big

755
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 2: Twelve even at this late hour. All Right, I think

756
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 2: I need to take a sip here because this next

757
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 2: one is going to be one of the trickiest games

758
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 2: the rest of the year, one of the trickiest games

759
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 2: that we predict. Here a quick reminder I told you

760
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 2: at the beginning of the show, But for those of

761
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 2: you who have come in the door late, the first

762
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 2: thing that I need you to do is I need

763
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 2: you to click the thumbs up button emphatically. I say that,

764
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 2: click the thumbs up button because we're trying to we'll

765
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 2: get as many likes as we can. And if you

766
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 2: haven't already subscribed to the channel. Okay, so Thursday night,

767
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 2: I gotta fly to LA after the show. We're doing

768
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 2: the show a little bit early. We're doing it six

769
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 2: thirty eastern, five thirty Central. That concludes the announcement. All right,

770
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 2: let's dive into this. Utah is at Oregon Saturday night.

771
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:00,360
Speaker 2: This is going to be a war. Is a ten

772
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,879
Speaker 2: thirty eastern kickoff. Everyone's done with their evenings plans. You're

773
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 2: gonna be home. You're gonna be able to watch this one.

774
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 2: I will probably be able to tune into this one

775
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 2: after our game, at least the second half of it.

776
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,399
Speaker 2: I think this is gonna be a it's gonna be good.

777
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 2: It's gonna be really good. There are some things happening here,

778
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 2: so pay attention. Let's dive into it. Because the winner

779
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 2: controls their own destiny in the Pac twelve, so you

780
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 2: don't need other things to happen. You win this game

781
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:30,399
Speaker 2: and you can go to the conference championship game.

782
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 1: Point blank? Do you remember this matchup last year?

783
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:38,799
Speaker 2: Even those of you who don't normally bathe in Pac

784
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 2: twelve football coverage, I think you remember this.

785
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 1: Last year. Utah goes to Oregon or Oregon goes to Utah,

786
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 1: one of the two. Anyway.

787
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 2: They smashed Oregon thirty eight to seven. Then they play

788
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:52,760
Speaker 2: like three weeks later, two weeks later, three weeks.

789
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 1: Later in the PAC twelve Championship game, and it went

790
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 1: from thirty eight to seven to thirty eight to ten

791
00:37:58,160 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 1: and it was just two blood baths.

792
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: O'gon had no shot, got put on skates, total physical mismatch.

793
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 2: I know it's not always safe, nor is it even

794
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 2: wise to use the last year to this year thing.

795
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 2: I just want to remind you this matchup did happen

796
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:12,399
Speaker 2: twice last year.

797
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 1: Can Utah do to Oregon? Though? What Washington did? I

798
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 1: got two questions, that's one of them.

799
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 2: Washington last week just precisioned their way past Oregon because

800
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 2: Oregon ran the ball like they wanted to and Michael

801
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 2: Pennix and that offense for Washington still made it second

802
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 2: best on that evening. He was twenty six of thirty

803
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 2: five through for four hundred and eight yards. Cam Rising

804
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 2: starting quarterback there for Utah four and three as a

805
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 2: road starter since twenty twenty one, so he's been really

806
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,880
Speaker 2: good at home, more mixed results on the road. I

807
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:51,240
Speaker 2: was reading some of the coverage out there in Utah.

808
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 2: They think this is his last go around there. He's

809
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 2: a fifth year guy, probably gonna test the NFL Waters,

810
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 2: So you're seeing probably some of the last college football

811
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 2: of Camp Rising's career.

812
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: Dalton Kinkate at tight end has been phenomenal out there.

813
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 2: I mean, they had injury at the position and kink

814
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 2: steps up and could win all sorts of awards. And

815
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 2: he's playing in a Brock Bauers world, by the way,

816
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 2: like Brock Bowers exists at tight end at Georgia and

817
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 2: Kim k is still out there kind of holding his own.

818
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 2: Another interesting dynamic here, Tavi and Thomas is the running

819
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 2: back there for Utah. Watch him this weekend. He had

820
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 2: a good game last week. I think he probably is

821
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 2: getting healthy at the right time. He started strong and

822
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 2: then he dipped in production and he's been banged up.

823
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 2: I think they're getting him healthy at the right time.

824
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 2: It's what I would suspect now. I asked, you, can

825
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 2: Utah do enough offensively like Washington did last week? Well,

826
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 2: here's the follow up to that. Will they have to?

827
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:51,840
Speaker 2: And I'm not talking about them shutting Orgon down defensively

828
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 2: per se. However, I kind of am. The status of

829
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 2: a number of these Oregon players is very much up

830
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 2: in the air, and one of them's Bo Nicks, and

831
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 2: I'm not sure we're gonna see him Saturday, which would

832
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 2: turn this game sideways. So that's not me confirming anything,

833
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 2: but there are some whispers out of Oregon where it's

834
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 2: gonna be either game time or you may not get

835
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:19,280
Speaker 2: to see Bo Nicks. And if you don't, I don't

836
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:23,240
Speaker 2: like the position that puts Oregon in obviously, so Bo Nicks,

837
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 2: if you don't have him, you are heavily leaning on

838
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 2: your running game. And Utah leads the PAC twelve in

839
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:32,760
Speaker 2: total defense, they lead the PAC twelve and third down defense,

840
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 2: they lead the PAC twelve and fourth down defense, so

841
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 2: it could be tough sledding there now. If Nix is

842
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 2: able to go, that is a different story. But it's

843
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 2: very much up in the air right now from what

844
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 2: I can tell. So what does the model think about this?

845
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:47,800
Speaker 1: Colin?

846
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 2: Well, the money line right now is Oregon minus one

847
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,880
Speaker 2: fifty five Utah plus one thirty. The spread is Oregon

848
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:58,959
Speaker 2: minus three. We have Well, that's the wrong capsule, So I.

849
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 1: Sounded on a little rude.

850
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 2: Collin punches the show like phenomenally every night, and the

851
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 2: first time he hits a little, he hits what we

852
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 2: call a sausage finger in there, which is where you

853
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 2: press two buttons. So the Utah line here, they're plus three.

854
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,799
Speaker 2: Model has the wrong team favorite, like our model has

855
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 2: Utah at minus one, whereas Vegas has Oregon minus three

856
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 2: that is without the Bownicks injury possibility being baked in.

857
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,399
Speaker 2: So Oregon minus three is the Caesars line. We already

858
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 2: like Utah minus one. If I'm considering the possibility that

859
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 2: they are either playing with a very limited Bonnix or

860
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 2: without him.

861
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 1: I gotta roll with Utah.

862
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna follow the model here if they if

863
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,439
Speaker 2: they have him. My point is, if they have him,

864
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:48,960
Speaker 2: models still thinks Utah has got an excellent shot here.

865
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:52,359
Speaker 2: If they don't, I along with the model, I think

866
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 2: they have an excellent shot. So I'm gonna somewhat blindly

867
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 2: roll with Utah to win the game out right and

868
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 2: right now. The odds to win the Past twelve championship.

869
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 2: As I told you a few minutes ago, it's dead even.

870
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 2: There are three teams there, USC, Oregon in Utah, and

871
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,240
Speaker 2: they're just they're kind of all sitting there with pretty

872
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 2: much equal shots. And UCLA's a little ways back. But

873
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 2: keep an eye on that Bo Nick situation. I mean,

874
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,399
Speaker 2: that's that's huge. That's a really really big deal out there.

875
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 2: We had a couple of questions that were submitted.

876
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 1: Let me make sure I have both of them here. Yeah,

877
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 1: I got both of them.

878
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna do a couple of questions and then

879
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,479
Speaker 2: I got one, two, three, I got four added best

880
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:33,400
Speaker 2: bets for you tonight. I can assure you everyone's going

881
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 2: to have an opinion on these questions. They're they're loaded,

882
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 2: very loaded questions. Okay, first up, let's go to the

883
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 2: state of Texas. David wants to know how will Texas

884
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 2: and Texas A and M get back on track with

885
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 2: Jimbo and Sark in charge. So I've been asked this

886
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:57,879
Speaker 2: a fair amount lately. I've been asked about what the

887
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 2: futures of these programs with these guys in charge, And

888
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:06,320
Speaker 2: every time they lose, it's familiar, it's a familiar refrain.

889
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 2: I got to be clear with you, I don't think

890
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,439
Speaker 2: that these are comparable situations broad strokes. Yeah, they've both

891
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 2: underachieved relative to expectation, but only Texas A and M

892
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 2: to Me has disastrously underachieved this year. Like Texas to

893
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 2: Me Sarks getting a lot of heat because you don't

894
00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 2: want to blame the mirror, like they went five and

895
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:34,800
Speaker 2: seven last year. Right now they're tracking well, they're already

896
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 2: better than that, and so they will finish better than that.

897
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 2: So Steve Sarkisian is guaranteed now to have a better

898
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:45,399
Speaker 2: season this year than they did last year. Where he's

899
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 2: getting heat is, yeah, they've they've had some ugly showings.

900
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 1: I don't deny that.

901
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 2: But he's getting heat because a lot of folks picked

902
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 2: him to win the Big Twelve. A lot of folks

903
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 2: were just higher on them. I have famously feuded with

904
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 2: the j Pepole because our model has been sky high

905
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 2: on Texas. But the thing about it is they go

906
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 2: to Kansas this week, they got Baylor next week. If

907
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,439
Speaker 2: they even win one of those games, much less two

908
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:11,839
Speaker 2: of them, they're either seven and five or eight and four.

909
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 2: You're talking about a two or a three game improvement

910
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 2: from last year. That is, while it may not be

911
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:21,800
Speaker 2: what you wanted in year two, that is not failure.

912
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:23,720
Speaker 2: That is not disastrous failure.

913
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 1: Texas A and M is horrific this year. They are awful.

914
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:33,439
Speaker 2: They are not even close to Bowl consideration. Yukon Jim

915
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 2: Mora junior. Those folks are going to a bowl, and

916
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,240
Speaker 2: A and M's gonna sit at home and watch them.

917
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: It's dish, it's gross.

918
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 2: And so you've got one situation where the tires are flat,

919
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 2: and you got another situation where the tires aren't there.

920
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,800
Speaker 2: Where are the tires sitting on cinder blocks? It's apples

921
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 2: and bowling balls. It's totally different situations to me. I

922
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 2: look at Texas and I think they are tweaks away,

923
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:59,840
Speaker 2: they are adjustments away. A and M has got a

924
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 2: sh strip the thing down and start from scratch. I

925
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 2: don't mean the program, by the way, I mean the philosophy.

926
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 2: They've just got to overhaul philosophically. And so that is

927
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 2: where the future focus is not too far down the

928
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 2: road either.

929
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:18,800
Speaker 1: Like think about where we are right now. It's November fifteenth.

930
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 1: They got two games left.

931
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 2: They've got I think UMass and they got LSU and

932
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 2: that's it.

933
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 1: There's no bowl game.

934
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 2: So their version of the OH season starts in two weeks,

935
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:32,120
Speaker 2: less than fourteen.

936
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 1: Days from now. If he's making changes, they're going to

937
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 1: come pretty quick. And so what changes are we talking about?

938
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 1: I got a little tidbit for you.

939
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 2: Actually, when it comes to A and M has nothing

940
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:47,239
Speaker 2: to do with the football program. It has everything to

941
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 2: do with our show in College Station. I'll tell you

942
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 2: in a second. So everybody in College Station has convinced themselves,

943
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 2: partially out of hope, that Jimbo Fisher knows what needs

944
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 2: to happen. Spoken to some folks close to the program recently,

945
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 2: and that's exactly what they say, Bro, Jimbo knows like

946
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 2: he knows what needs to happen. And look, I hope

947
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 2: that's true, because what you're talking about is hiring an

948
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,320
Speaker 2: offensive coordinator. To be clear, everyone out there who's unclear

949
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 2: on that, the hope and the.

950
00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:19,959
Speaker 1: Belief is okay, it's a disaster this year.

951
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 2: That is going to prompt Jimbo to hire an offensive

952
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 2: coordinator and delegate control play calling, whatever the case may be,

953
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 2: and be more of a CEO. I think that that

954
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 2: would be an excellent move. I think it is a necessary,

955
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 2: mandatory move. But when I say mandatory and necessary, I

956
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 2: mean for them to be good. I don't mean it's

957
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 2: necessary or else. Jimbo's gone because he gets that buyout.

958
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:48,360
Speaker 2: No matter what, he can go knock off a convenience

959
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 2: store in broad daylight.

960
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 1: You're still giving him that buyout. There is no clause like,

961
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:56,439
Speaker 1: there's no well he didn't try hard enough. Nope, that's

962
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 1: the deal you agreed on. And so it's not.

963
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 2: Many for him to change a thing, but he has

964
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 2: to if he wants to win. Now, the simple question

965
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:08,359
Speaker 2: that will remain unanswered for at least a couple more

966
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 2: weeks is does he does scratch that he knows it,

967
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 2: does he feel it? Because no one looks at the

968
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 2: production out there and says, yep, this is good enough,

969
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 2: Not even Jimbo. Has he convinced himself that it's a

970
00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 2: lot more on him than just lack of player execution

971
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 2: or does he really still believe No, the players.

972
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 1: Are there to be had. Our guys just aren't executing enough.

973
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 2: And what I say in response to that is Tennessee

974
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:38,320
Speaker 2: doesn't execute perfectly every week. Either they still hang forty

975
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:41,279
Speaker 2: five or fifty. I guarantee you when Josh Heipel and

976
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 2: his staff go into film sessions on Sunday, they do

977
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 2: not grade their offensive performance at one hundred percent. They

978
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 2: do not put green all over that sheet. There's a

979
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 2: lot of red. There are a lot of correctibles. They're

980
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:58,400
Speaker 2: scoring forty five and fifty in the process of being imperfect.

981
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:02,800
Speaker 2: Jimbo's struggling the time, and he's sitting there and saying,

982
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:04,759
Speaker 2: we have to be perfect, just to be better than this.

983
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 1: It doesn't work. It's a non starter.

984
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 2: So I can't answer anything because I don't know where

985
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:13,400
Speaker 2: he's gonna go. But with Sark, like I saw, I

986
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 2: was over on Horns twenty four to seven earlier today

987
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:17,760
Speaker 2: and there's a pretty deep thread over there asking whether

988
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 2: Sark needs to hire an OC.

989
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 1: No, he don't need to hire an OC. You got

990
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 1: the one of the best to me in the country.

991
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:27,280
Speaker 2: My mind doesn't change on that just because they struggled

992
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:30,359
Speaker 2: against TCU or you got a couple of examples this

993
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:33,840
Speaker 2: year of games where they didn't hang a huge crooked number.

994
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,160
Speaker 2: I still think the world of the guy as a

995
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 2: play caller. Philosophically. I love his offense. I don't think

996
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 2: we've seen the full version of it because they're not

997
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 2: at quarterback.

998
00:48:44,200 --> 00:48:47,800
Speaker 1: What they need to be candidly, now, is that on them? Sure?

999
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:48,919
Speaker 1: Is it on Quinn?

1000
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 2: Youw ers to a degree? Sure is he a first

1001
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 2: year starter? Yeah, that's also true. So it may just

1002
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 2: be that they're a lot better next year. I'm selling

1003
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 2: next year with Texas already, by the way, but I

1004
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 2: don't view these as the same. But I will tell

1005
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:03,839
Speaker 2: you this, twenty twenty three, one way or the other

1006
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 2: is going to be a show me year for a

1007
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 2: lot of big time coaches out there, and we're talking

1008
00:49:08,239 --> 00:49:11,160
Speaker 2: about two of them. I can make the case for Jimbo,

1009
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 2: make the staff changes, we're good in twenty twenty three.

1010
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:15,800
Speaker 2: I can make the case for Sark.

1011
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: Just keep progressing, just keep trending upwards, and if we're

1012
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,279
Speaker 1: in the nine or ten win category or better next year,

1013
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:26,439
Speaker 1: all's well. What I can't do for either of these

1014
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 1: guys is settle for another five or six win season,

1015
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 1: just split the difference.

1016
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 2: That's kind of where they are right now. I can't

1017
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 2: sell that in twenty twenty three.

1018
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 1: I can't. There's too much on the line.

1019
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:40,360
Speaker 2: Texas is about to head to the SEC, A M

1020
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:42,439
Speaker 2: is already in the thick of it, and they're the worst.

1021
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 1: Team in the SEC this year. Worst. There is no

1022
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:47,200
Speaker 1: record worse than that.

1023
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 2: I can't sell subpar performance in twenty twenty three and

1024
00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:54,319
Speaker 2: then try and sell you twenty twenty four. I can't

1025
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:55,719
Speaker 2: do that, so I don't even want to get that

1026
00:49:55,760 --> 00:50:01,320
Speaker 2: far down the road. As for the tidbit, I Colin,

1027
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 2: that's your that's so that's the end of the segment.

1028
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:06,360
Speaker 1: Colin cut boom. Okay.

1029
00:50:06,600 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 2: I'm telling them basically what we edit this in post

1030
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:11,000
Speaker 2: and you see the individual videos on YouTube, but not

1031
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 2: everything that we say on the show goes in the

1032
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 2: individual videos. There are some things that you just have

1033
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 2: to watch the live show to get like this.

1034
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:22,600
Speaker 1: For example, I think most of you pretty well know

1035
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:23,839
Speaker 1: that we're gonna go.

1036
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:26,240
Speaker 2: To the Ohio State Michigan game for the every given

1037
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:30,360
Speaker 2: Saturday Tour regular season finale. I think that's pretty well decided,

1038
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 2: so that's not shocking anyone. With that in mind, you

1039
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:38,920
Speaker 2: also know Thanksgiving is next week. You probably also know

1040
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 2: we have partnered with Verbo for some obligations this year,

1041
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:44,320
Speaker 2: and one of those.

1042
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 1: Is coming up next week.

1043
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 2: You didn't know that the travel schedule is about to

1044
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 2: be the most hilaious thing you have ever heard and

1045
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 2: you have ever seen us go through here. We love it,

1046
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 2: but let me let me lay out for you what's

1047
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 2: about to happen. I fly to La Thursday. We got

1048
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 2: usc UCLA Red eye back here Saturday night, eleven to

1049
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 2: fifty nine. Takeoff from Lax by the way, and we're

1050
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,799
Speaker 2: in Nashville the next morning to do the Sunday night

1051
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 2: show the Monday. The next morning, I fly to Houston

1052
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 2: because we're going to be down there for two days

1053
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:14,880
Speaker 2: filming some things for Verbo. I'm going to be in

1054
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 2: College Station Tuesday and we are going to do Late

1055
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:21,560
Speaker 2: Kick live from the Tech SAgs studio. Called up our

1056
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 2: buddies over there, Billy, we need the studio, all right,

1057
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:25,839
Speaker 2: I'll take care of it, man, I got it, And

1058
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:27,520
Speaker 2: so I'm excited to meet a lot of those guys.

1059
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 2: Some of them I met, some of them I haven't.

1060
00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 2: So we're gonna beat the TECHAG Studio. Then I fly

1061
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 2: from Houston, Texas to Columbus, Georgia. Get a little Thanksgiving

1062
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 2: in fly to Columbus, Ohio. From Columbus Georgia, post amongst

1063
00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:40,879
Speaker 2: us has done to the Columbus Columbus route by the way,

1064
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:44,400
Speaker 2: do that Friday morning to go to Ohio State Michigan.

1065
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 2: Fly back to Nashville that night for the Sunday show,

1066
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 2: and then head down to Atlanta because we'll be doing

1067
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:53,360
Speaker 2: SEC Championship week.

1068
00:51:53,239 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 1: Coverage from there. When do you sleep? I don't know.

1069
00:51:57,120 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 1: Do we eat anything other than the fast food? I

1070
00:51:59,080 --> 00:51:59,480
Speaker 1: don't know.

1071
00:51:59,680 --> 00:52:02,960
Speaker 2: Do you find a gem? Probably not, but that's the

1072
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 2: next week or two. So anyway, I said all that

1073
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 2: to tell you we're doing the Tuesday show.

1074
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 1: From College Station next week.

1075
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:11,000
Speaker 2: And I happen to know that tech SAgs is located

1076
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 2: right across the street from Kyle Field.

1077
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 1: So open invitation.

1078
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 2: You know, if Jimbo Fisher, who we have a storied

1079
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 2: track record with on this program, if he feels like

1080
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:24,359
Speaker 2: coming on the show, it's a short walk, come on over.

1081
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:27,320
Speaker 1: I don't think we'll get an answer to that request

1082
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:28,280
Speaker 1: or invitation.

1083
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 2: The next question here is a good one because I've

1084
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 2: hinted about this a few times. Beth asked if we're

1085
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 2: turned off by the direction the transfer portal and NIL

1086
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 2: have taken the sport?

1087
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:42,839
Speaker 1: Am I turned off by it? I can't lie to you, Beth,

1088
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:44,240
Speaker 1: Yeah I am. In some ways.

1089
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:49,840
Speaker 2: I don't like how relationships don't mean as much anymore.

1090
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 2: And I'm gonna get flack about this because I always do,

1091
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:57,200
Speaker 2: and it's not that I care about it. I just

1092
00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:00,799
Speaker 2: want to state sometimes I know what you're going to

1093
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 2: say before you say it. So when I tell you

1094
00:53:03,640 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 2: my feelings on this, I'm not anti player, I'm not

1095
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:12,399
Speaker 2: against guys getting money. I do not think it's been

1096
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:15,759
Speaker 2: done like this forever. That's one of the familiar refrains. Oh,

1097
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:18,240
Speaker 2: it's always been done. Now it's just legal.

1098
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 1: No. No, what's happening in college football right now has

1099
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:25,440
Speaker 1: not always been done. And what you're.

1100
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 2: About to see after this regular season, when a large

1101
00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 2: swath of this sport simultaneously enters the portal, you will

1102
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 2: no longer be able to look.

1103
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:38,120
Speaker 1: At me and say, oh, it always happened. Now.

1104
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:40,759
Speaker 2: You want to tell me cash changed hands from time

1105
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:44,239
Speaker 2: to time. You want to tell me money sometimes influenced

1106
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:46,520
Speaker 2: a kid's decision, and you want to tell me that

1107
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:47,400
Speaker 2: it was done illegally.

1108
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:48,720
Speaker 1: I'm a realist.

1109
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 2: I understand I probably know more stories than you do

1110
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 2: about that. Nothing on par with the current state of

1111
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 2: this sport had always happened, not even remotely in the

1112
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:03,200
Speaker 2: same galley of what's happening right now has always happened.

1113
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 2: So you can save that and know. While I'm on

1114
00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 2: this subject, coaches don't get away with doing the same thing.

1115
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:14,680
Speaker 2: Coaches do not move every year penalty free. Coaches have contracts.

1116
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:17,319
Speaker 1: The fact is most of them don't move every year,

1117
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 1: and if they do, there's a penalty to be paid.

1118
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 1: There is what is called a buyout in a contract.

1119
00:54:23,640 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 2: Okay, so they are locked into a school and if

1120
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:29,360
Speaker 2: they want to go somewhere else, someone is going to

1121
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 2: pay that school because a buyout has to be paid.

1122
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:37,400
Speaker 2: Players aren't under that kind of structure. The response to

1123
00:54:37,440 --> 00:54:40,160
Speaker 2: that is, yeah, they're not employees. Well, I think there's

1124
00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 2: coming a day where we probably find a little happy

1125
00:54:42,200 --> 00:54:44,239
Speaker 2: middle ground there, but that's down the road. I just

1126
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 2: wanted to acknowledge before you even go down those roads,

1127
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:48,560
Speaker 2: before you even start White.

1128
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 1: Nighting for what you don't even understand. I already know

1129
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:53,920
Speaker 1: I can make your argument for you better than you

1130
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:56,719
Speaker 1: can and then silence it. So save me on that.

1131
00:54:57,360 --> 00:54:57,960
Speaker 1: Let's move on.

1132
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:02,160
Speaker 2: No, I don't necessarily love I'm not a huge fan

1133
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:04,799
Speaker 2: of what's happening with the portal. I'm not a huge

1134
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:08,120
Speaker 2: fan of knowing that as soon as we end this

1135
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 2: regular season, thousands I am not hyperbolic there by the way,

1136
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:17,760
Speaker 2: thousands of players are about to be in the transfer portal,

1137
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:21,359
Speaker 2: and a lot of them are not moving for what

1138
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:23,920
Speaker 2: I personally would call the right reasons.

1139
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:26,919
Speaker 1: Everybody can have their own reasons. Kids are totally free.

1140
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:29,839
Speaker 1: It's their life, it's not my life.

1141
00:55:30,160 --> 00:55:34,160
Speaker 2: But when I said the relationship aspect, it used to

1142
00:55:34,239 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 2: be not too long ago, that recruiting and development went

1143
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:42,800
Speaker 2: hand in hand with the relationship aspect between coaching staff,

1144
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:46,840
Speaker 2: coach and not only player but family. In an ideal world,

1145
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:50,040
Speaker 2: that's the way the structure worked. And that's really out

1146
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:53,160
Speaker 2: the window is it is very much a bottom line,

1147
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:54,720
Speaker 2: here's what I can get elsewhere?

1148
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:57,080
Speaker 1: Can you offer me that? If you can't, I'm gone.

1149
00:55:57,640 --> 00:56:00,000
Speaker 2: And the thing about it is, what is attracting you

1150
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,799
Speaker 2: to another location has nothing to do with relationships at all.

1151
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:08,840
Speaker 2: I'm not bemoaning this from a dollars and cents standpoint.

1152
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:11,799
Speaker 2: I told you the other day. I'm not under an

1153
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 2: illusion here. I know that this is the peak earnings

1154
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:19,000
Speaker 2: period for most of these kids in their life. They

1155
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:20,799
Speaker 2: are in a position right now because most of them

1156
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:22,960
Speaker 2: won't play pro football, So most of them are in

1157
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:25,600
Speaker 2: a position right now that they'll never be the rest

1158
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:27,880
Speaker 2: of their life. Because the fact of the matter is,

1159
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 2: it's really hard to elevate yourself in any society to

1160
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 2: where you weren't six figure or maybe seven figure.

1161
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 1: Consideration just hard to do.

1162
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:41,400
Speaker 2: There are not very many jobs out there that pay that,

1163
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:43,480
Speaker 2: and it's hard to get to one of them. And

1164
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 2: so you got one right now. They don't call it

1165
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:47,759
Speaker 2: a job, but it's a job. And if you want

1166
00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:49,880
Speaker 2: to go make as much as you can, I understand it.

1167
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 2: I don't ever blame kids, because the kids are not

1168
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:54,759
Speaker 2: the one who made the structure. I'm not bending on

1169
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 2: revenue sharing ten fifteen years ago is what made this

1170
00:56:57,000 --> 00:56:57,520
Speaker 2: truth be told.

1171
00:56:58,320 --> 00:56:59,320
Speaker 1: But I think.

1172
00:56:59,200 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 2: Ultimately, whether it's the transfer portal or whether it's nil, Ultimately,

1173
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:07,360
Speaker 2: if you want anything fixed, if you want things rained in.

1174
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:10,320
Speaker 2: As I've told you before, Beth, and I'll say it again,

1175
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 2: this is not falling on the NCAA. They're powerless anyway

1176
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 2: to stop this, but it's not falling on the NCAA.

1177
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 2: If this ever is rained in and there's more structure inserted,

1178
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:24,280
Speaker 2: I've told you two things I think have to happen.

1179
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:27,640
Speaker 2: Number One, conferences have to step up and understand they've

1180
00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:30,920
Speaker 2: gotten more authority than the NCAA ever has in this matter.

1181
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:34,200
Speaker 2: And number two, and this is just the way I

1182
00:57:34,240 --> 00:57:38,959
Speaker 2: see it, there is no world where you're entering into

1183
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:42,440
Speaker 2: these multi billion dollar media rights deals and going to

1184
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:45,280
Speaker 2: convince anyone players don't deserve a chunk of that in

1185
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 2: the world we're in now, especially like if you want structure,

1186
00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:51,000
Speaker 2: if you want guys to agree to a minimum of

1187
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 2: two years or whatnot.

1188
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:54,400
Speaker 1: In other words, if you don't want it to be.

1189
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 2: The wild wild West, you can't have that massive bag

1190
00:57:58,920 --> 00:58:02,120
Speaker 2: of cash over here that you're making because of them

1191
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:06,240
Speaker 2: playing on Saturday and say no, that's ours. Well, okay,

1192
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:09,240
Speaker 2: then what they're gonna say, come transfer portal season is

1193
00:58:09,280 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go get mine. If you're not gonna give

1194
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:14,120
Speaker 2: me some of yours, I'm gonna go get mine. So

1195
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:16,280
Speaker 2: if you want a little trade off in another world,

1196
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 2: this will be called collective bargaining.

1197
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 1: We can't use that term for obvious reasons.

1198
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:23,680
Speaker 2: But there is coming a day, I believe, where conferences

1199
00:58:23,680 --> 00:58:24,760
Speaker 2: face the reality that.

1200
00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 1: We got all of this excess over here in the

1201
00:58:27,800 --> 00:58:29,160
Speaker 1: way of media rights money.

1202
00:58:30,320 --> 00:58:32,880
Speaker 2: Revenue sharing would probably solve a lot of this, because

1203
00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:36,080
Speaker 2: you can guarantee a kid more through revenue sharing than

1204
00:58:36,200 --> 00:58:37,479
Speaker 2: ninety five percent of them.

1205
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 1: Could ever hope to attain through nil. The Bryce youngs.

1206
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 1: The CJ.

1207
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,479
Speaker 2: Strauss, those are aliens, those are different. But ninety five

1208
00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:49,440
Speaker 2: plus percent of rosters are kids that right now could

1209
00:58:49,480 --> 00:58:51,120
Speaker 2: be enticed by.

1210
00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:52,120
Speaker 1: Ten or fifteen grand.

1211
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 2: And if you distribute that media rights revenue properly, ten

1212
00:58:57,400 --> 00:58:59,320
Speaker 2: or fifteen grand is no longer going to be enough

1213
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:01,520
Speaker 2: to allure a kid because they're getting more than that

1214
00:59:01,880 --> 00:59:03,520
Speaker 2: just because of the conference they play in.

1215
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:04,760
Speaker 1: That is your answer.

1216
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 2: If you really want to rain and in and you

1217
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:09,480
Speaker 2: really want kids to work together with you work together

1218
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 2: with them. I don't speak as if this is utopian,

1219
00:59:13,280 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 2: but it is realistic. And you didn't go down this

1220
00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 2: road ten or fifteen years ago when you had the opportunity,

1221
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:22,800
Speaker 2: and so here you are, you held onto every penny

1222
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 2: instead of giving up a little bit.

1223
00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:27,600
Speaker 1: You were penny wise and pound foolish.

1224
00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:29,880
Speaker 2: Shan and Terry used to always say that around here,

1225
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:32,320
Speaker 2: do not be penny wise and pound foolish. It's one

1226
00:59:32,360 --> 00:59:34,560
Speaker 2: of my favorite sayings. Aver I still repeat it to

1227
00:59:34,560 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 2: this day. And college football was.

1228
00:59:36,240 --> 00:59:38,360
Speaker 1: Penny wise and pound foolish. And now here you are,

1229
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 1: don't worry. I think there'll be an answer. You'll just

1230
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:42,760
Speaker 1: be a little lighter in the wallet.

1231
00:59:42,480 --> 00:59:45,560
Speaker 2: If you choose to entertain that. Okay, we do not

1232
00:59:45,600 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 2: want to be light in the wallet. We want to

1233
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:49,919
Speaker 2: be heavy in the wallet, and we are after last week,

1234
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:51,080
Speaker 2: and we want that to continue.

1235
00:59:51,080 --> 00:59:52,560
Speaker 1: It feels good to make money. We want to make

1236
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:54,440
Speaker 1: more of it. Rominudele Express.

1237
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:56,760
Speaker 2: We're already on one game and that is Penn State

1238
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 2: minus nineteen and a half. I got four more to add.

1239
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:04,480
Speaker 2: Here we go Louisville. We did not bet them last week.

1240
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:07,040
Speaker 2: They played Clemson, they lost, that's fine. We think we

1241
01:00:07,080 --> 01:00:09,040
Speaker 2: have them in a good number. This week, we're taking

1242
01:00:09,080 --> 01:00:13,919
Speaker 2: Louisville minus four. We are taking Nebraska again. We rode

1243
01:00:13,920 --> 01:00:16,880
Speaker 2: the Huskers last week. We're gonna take them again. Plus thirteen.

1244
01:00:17,640 --> 01:00:22,360
Speaker 2: We are betting the University of Nashville otherwise known as Vanderbilt,

1245
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:26,360
Speaker 2: and they are plus fourteen. Now full disclosure, and this

1246
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:30,880
Speaker 2: is just where my ethics shine through. There's a fourteen

1247
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 2: and a half out there. One book has fourteen and

1248
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:38,360
Speaker 2: a half. I made an executive decision. I don't think

1249
01:00:38,400 --> 01:00:40,000
Speaker 2: it's fair for me to hand out fourteen and a

1250
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:43,360
Speaker 2: half because the consensus number is not fourteen.

1251
01:00:43,000 --> 01:00:46,840
Speaker 1: And a half. So I grabbed fourteen and a half.

1252
01:00:46,880 --> 01:00:48,960
Speaker 2: And most of you in states where it's legal, can

1253
01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:52,640
Speaker 2: grab fourteen and a half right now. My prediction of record,

1254
01:00:52,800 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 2: our bet of record will be Vandy plus fourteen.

1255
01:00:55,760 --> 01:00:58,240
Speaker 1: And finally that Utah game.

1256
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:02,440
Speaker 2: Since there are three still out there and I'm questionable

1257
01:01:02,880 --> 01:01:06,440
Speaker 2: about bo Nicks, I'm taking Utah plus three and we're

1258
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:10,400
Speaker 2: gonna add that one onto the Romnuel Express. Oh and Akron,

1259
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:12,200
Speaker 2: by the way, yeah, go ahead and put that up Colin,

1260
01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:14,240
Speaker 2: because I forgot to write that on my sheet. Akron

1261
01:01:14,240 --> 01:01:18,240
Speaker 2: plus fourteen and a half, please make sure you get

1262
01:01:18,240 --> 01:01:18,880
Speaker 2: that right number.

1263
01:01:19,040 --> 01:01:21,240
Speaker 1: And Utah plus three. So here are the games we're

1264
01:01:21,240 --> 01:01:21,600
Speaker 1: on now.

1265
01:01:21,720 --> 01:01:24,560
Speaker 2: Penn State minus nineteen and a half, Louisville minus four,

1266
01:01:25,000 --> 01:01:29,200
Speaker 2: Nebraska plus thirteen, Vandy plus fourteen, Akron plus fourteen and

1267
01:01:29,200 --> 01:01:32,560
Speaker 2: a half, Utah plus three. We're gonna have several more,

1268
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:35,960
Speaker 2: maybe on the Thursday show, certainly by Friday Night Lines.

1269
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:39,800
Speaker 2: Time feels good to say this live from Southern California

1270
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:42,720
Speaker 2: Friday Night Lines. I didn't think the show was going

1271
01:01:42,760 --> 01:01:43,720
Speaker 2: to go an hour tonight, but it did.

1272
01:01:43,720 --> 01:01:45,840
Speaker 1: All right. Appreciate you guys. Make sure you like this

1273
01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:49,440
Speaker 1: video on the way out, and make sure, I mean

1274
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:52,160
Speaker 1: make sure you are doing everything in your power to

1275
01:01:52,280 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 1: get us to one hundred and fifty thousand subs by

1276
01:01:55,680 --> 01:01:56,280
Speaker 1: what Sunday.

1277
01:01:56,440 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 2: Sunday's fair. Sunday's more than fair. Frankly, I think we

1278
01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:02,040
Speaker 2: could do it by Thursday, but Sunday's fair. And then

1279
01:02:02,480 --> 01:02:05,200
Speaker 2: we get to enter into the funfilled equation of figuring

1280
01:02:05,200 --> 01:02:09,360
Speaker 2: out what your prize is. I will offer suggestions. Ultimately,

1281
01:02:09,360 --> 01:02:11,840
Speaker 2: it's up to you. The only thing off limits is

1282
01:02:12,120 --> 01:02:14,280
Speaker 2: Colin does not feel like doing a facial view for

1283
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:16,200
Speaker 2: a mere one hundred and fifty thousand subs.

1284
01:02:16,440 --> 01:02:19,400
Speaker 1: He thinks that's more than a million subs territory, and

1285
01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 1: I don't blame him. So let him live his life

1286
01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 1: and you live your life. Just make sure part of

1287
01:02:24,120 --> 01:02:25,800
Speaker 1: your life is subscribing to the challenge.

1288
01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 2: For director Colin, for producer Jesse, for producer Belchie.

1289
01:02:30,240 --> 01:02:30,960
Speaker 1: I'm Josh Biate.

1290
01:02:31,080 --> 01:02:35,280
Speaker 2: We'll be back earlier Thursday, six thirty Eastern, five thirty Central.

1291
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:46,960
Speaker 1: Until then, take care and God bless