1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,000 Speaker 1: This is the Lab podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha, 2 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: j J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharesin in 3 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: this episode ten eighty seven of the Late Round Fantasy 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 1: Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. The Late Round Prospect 5 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: Guide is done. It's finished, at least the pre draft 6 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: version is. If you pre ordered the guide, a link 7 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: to download that guide is now in your inbox. If 8 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 1: you didn't, you can still get the pre draft version 9 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: by heading the lateround dot com. It's just five dollars 10 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 1: more than it was last week. Now if you buy 11 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:38,919 Speaker 1: the guide, or if you bought the guide, you'll get 12 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 1: access to the post draft version, which will hit your 13 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 1: inbox the day the NFL Draft ends, and that'll have 14 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 1: all new player blurbs and write ups and ZAP scores. 15 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 1: And that's for running back, wide receiver and tight end prospects. 16 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:53,480 Speaker 1: The guide is over one hundred and seventy pages long. 17 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: It's got player profiles for those positions. There's zapp scores, 18 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: you learn what goes into the models. There are a 19 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:02,639 Speaker 1: year two profile, up rankings, and more. Again, you can 20 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: get it yourself and read it immediately over on lateround 21 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: dot com. Today's episode of the show, though it's a 22 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: straightforward one. You heard some of my thoughts on the 23 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: free agency period on last week's Perspectives episode, but this 24 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: is a little bit more of a deep dive and 25 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 1: not a general conversation like the one that I had 26 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: with Derek Brown. I'm gonna talk through a ton of 27 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: moves that we saw go down last week, and I'll 28 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 1: do my best to provide some early fantasy takes. Let's 29 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: dive in. I think Kenneth Walker going to the Chiefs 30 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 1: is probably the biggest move of the free agency period 31 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: from a fantasy perspective. I haven't sat down and done 32 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: my projections for the twenty twenty six season, but I 33 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,479 Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if Walker looks like an RB one 34 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 1: in fantasy football entering next season. Brandon Gadula sent a 35 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: newsletter out last week then I'm going to reference throughout 36 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: today's show, but in it he noted that while Kansas 37 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 1: City was twenty fifth and rushing yards per game last year, 38 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: they were seventh and EPA per rush, and they were 39 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 1: eighth and success rate. They were also twelfth and rushing 40 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: yards before contact per attempt. Where things went south for 41 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: them was in the explosive runs department. Isaiah Pacheco and 42 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 1: Kareem Hunt combined for one run of twenty or more 43 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 1: yards last year. That's on over two hundred and eighty carries. 44 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 1: Their rate of gaining ten or more yards was eight 45 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 1: point five percent and six point one percent. Those were 46 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: both well below average numbers when compared to other running 47 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: backs with fifty or more carries. And that includes Kenneth Walker, 48 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:27,519 Speaker 1: who gained ten or more yards at a near fifteen 49 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: percent rate. That was a fringe top five number in 50 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: the league. I've said this for years on the show now, 51 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: but Walker's a big play, home run hitting running back. 52 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 1: He often finishes seasons with more mediocre success rates, but 53 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 1: he can break these big plays that really can change games. 54 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 1: And that's why this fit is so interesting to me 55 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 1: because despite Kareem Hunt just clearly not being a studley 56 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: running back, he was fourth last year in success rate 57 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: according to next Gen Stats. The line, the situation, the system, 58 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: it's clearly helping things here now, the odd he His 59 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 1: problem for Walker in Seattle was that he had a 60 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: lot of empty calorie usage. He was being used between 61 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 1: the twenties, not that much as a pass catcher, and 62 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: not as much as the goal line. I'd anticipate him 63 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 1: at least being the primary goal mine back. Now that's huge, 64 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 1: and with the receiving stuff, Look, do I think Walker 65 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: is going to step into a fourteen fifteen percent target 66 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: share role? No, he's too good on the ground for 67 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 1: them to deploy him that way. Not many running backs 68 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: get to that point of seeing that much usage in 69 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 1: their backfield. And he's not an elite pass catcher. He's good, 70 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: but he's not elite. And I do think that he's 71 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: good even if that hasn't been the case in the 72 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: volume front in three of his four years in the league. 73 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: It's a little scary that he's been under that eight 74 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 1: percent target share mark in three of four seasons. But 75 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: if it makes you feel any better, and I think 76 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: it should, he's been above one point three yards per 77 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: route run in three of those seasons. His only inefficient 78 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 1: receiving season happened when he was a rookie. Like, I 79 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: think there's a serious chance that we see a double 80 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: digit percentage target share with goal line work for Kenneth 81 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 1: Walker in twenty twenty six, and in that Kansas City offense, 82 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: that can go a long way Meanwhile, the result of 83 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 1: Walker leaving Seattle is that they've got a pretty open 84 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 1: backfield now to start the twenty twenty six season. Right now, 85 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: Zach Charbonna is recovering from an acl He almost definitely 86 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 1: won't be ready to start the year. The Seahawks signed 87 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,479 Speaker 1: Emmanuel Wilson from the Packers, and they've seem to like 88 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 1: what they have in George Hallani. We're likely going to 89 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: see them invest in running back in the draft. That's 90 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 1: what I'd imagine they do. But this running back class 91 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: is not super strong, so I'm actually not against using 92 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:37,840 Speaker 1: those running backs as sort of like throwing pieces in 93 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 1: trades right now, just to see how this backfield unfolds, 94 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:43,799 Speaker 1: because it might unfold in a way that we don't 95 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:51,000 Speaker 1: expect because right now things are pretty ambiguous. Alec Pierce 96 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: is staying in Indianapolis. Michael Pittman he got traded to Pittsburgh, 97 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,039 Speaker 1: and Daniel Jones he's staying as a cult too, but 98 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: I won't dig that far into him today. The Peers. 99 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 1: The contract is interesting because the Colts' actions seem to 100 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 1: dictate that they're treating Pierce as more of an alpha 101 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 1: in that room. But that's never been Pierce's game. I 102 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 1: mentioned this in the Perspective episode last week, but Pierce, 103 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: dating back to high school, has never had a season 104 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: with at least a twenty two percent target shair All 105 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: four years at Cincinnati, he was above a seventeen percent 106 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: target shair just once, and it was twenty one point 107 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 1: six percent according to PFF data. In the NFL, where 108 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 1: we have four years of data, he's topped out in an 109 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,840 Speaker 1: eighteen percent target chair. Now, I think we're definitely gonna 110 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 1: see more looks funneled Pierce's way with the departure of 111 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: Michael Pittman. Even if they add someone in the draft, 112 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 1: it's a rookie that he'd be competing with. They seem 113 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 1: very set and keeping Josh Downs in the slot. Though 114 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,679 Speaker 1: I do think a low ball offer for Josh Downs 115 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: right now in Dynasty not a bad idea because I 116 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: personally think that he's better than just a slock guy. 117 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 1: And what if they just change their tune because of 118 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: the lack of resources. But we need that leap and 119 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 1: target share for Pierce to really hit a truer ceiling 120 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: in fantasy football. We haven't seen a top twelve wide 121 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 1: receiver in PPR points per game over the last two 122 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: years with a target share below twenty two percent, and 123 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 1: we've only had seven of them since twenty seventeen. Now, 124 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: I can't definitively say that I'm gonna be in er 125 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: out with Alec Pierce right now because his cost is 126 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: really what's going to drive that point. But I think 127 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: the volume concern is very real for Pierce, the fact 128 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 1: that he's just never been that true alpha. He's a 129 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: good player, and he's gotten better throughout his entire career, 130 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 1: and that's huge. I think that's actually pretty key. There's 131 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 1: a favorable trajectory, so there's always that chance that he 132 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: just keeps getting better. It just becomes a cost benefit thing. 133 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: And then speaking of volume with Pittman, I think he 134 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 1: could end up being a better real life fit than 135 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 1: fantasy fit in Pittsburgh. He can win some of those 136 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 1: lower aid dot looks if Aaron Rodgers is under center 137 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 1: for the Steelers this year, and Pittman can play inside 138 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: and out while DK Metcalf stretches the field, which is 139 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 1: what he's done throughout his career. I said this on 140 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 1: the show last week. Though Pittman had his worst YAK 141 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 1: per reception last year, and that was on a fairly 142 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:06,160 Speaker 1: low a dot. I think we at least need to 143 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: be open to the idea that Michael Pittman just is cooked, 144 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 1: that he's just not the same player that he was 145 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: just a few years ago. And let's be real, from 146 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: a fantasy perspective, throughout his career, he's been a fairly 147 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: volume dependent receiver. I do wonder whether that's gonna look 148 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: like in the Steelers offense now. I doubt anyone's going 149 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: crazy into buying Michael Pittman after this move, So, like Pierce, 150 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 1: let's just see where the dust settles now. I don't 151 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: know if we're calling him Travis a chan officially right now, 152 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 1: after he told the media that ETN is actually a chan. 153 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 1: That's how you pronounce it. Has anyone asked Trevor by 154 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: the way, as someone with the last name that people 155 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 1: mispronounced all the time. I get it that he's not 156 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: out there correcting people constantly, but I also don't care 157 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 1: at this point if someone says Zacharison. So I doubt 158 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 1: he'll really care if the Late Round podcast host calls 159 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 1: him ETN for today's episode. But how about Travis, let's 160 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 1: just call him Travis. Travis signed a deal with the 161 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 1: Saints to be their lead back. Hypothetically, Alvin Kamara is 162 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: still on that roster, but I'm assuming something's gonna change there. 163 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: If it doesn't, ETN at least takes some hit or Travis. Sorry, 164 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: I thought Debros summed this move up well on last 165 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 1: week's show. ETN is a volume grab. The same situation 166 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: should improve year over year as long as you see 167 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 1: a natural development from Tyler Schuck. But they were dead 168 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,400 Speaker 1: last in pp her points last season as a backfield. 169 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 1: And while I do think Travis is a solid running back, 170 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 1: he really wasn't that special last year. When you dig in. 171 00:08:31,280 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: He saw volume, yes, but his rate of gaining ten 172 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: or more yards was average. He had a far worse 173 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 1: success rate than Beshal Tuton. His rushing yards overexpected per 174 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: rush according to Next Gen Stats, was thirty second out 175 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 1: of forty eight qualified running backs, and he actually failed 176 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 1: to hit a ten percent target chair all while getting 177 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: to kind of a whatever one point zero five yards 178 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: per route run rate. Now, these numbers aren't the end all. 179 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: You know how I generally feel about running back numbers 180 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: and their predictiveness, But I do think the overall story 181 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: that it's painting is that Travis he's just solid, not elite. 182 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,079 Speaker 1: But I do expect volume to be there for him, 183 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: and that's what's most important for fantasy football. I'm just 184 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: hoping that this price doesn't get out of control. The 185 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: more interesting backfield stemming from this move is Jacksonville's with 186 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: Travis Gohn. The Jags have Bashall Tuton, LeQuinn Allen, and 187 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: now Chris Rodriguez as well. And man, there's a huge 188 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: divide right now in the fantasy football world. I don't 189 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: know if you're seeing it, but if you go on 190 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 1: social media, you'll see this divide. You're either on team 191 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 1: Chris Rodriguez or team Bashall Tuton. Now, you guys already 192 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 1: know where I generally lean here, but let's talk through this. 193 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: Everything always depends on cost. I don't know where Tuton's 194 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 1: gonna end up. I don't know where Chris Rodriguez is 195 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 1: gonna end up, but I do have takes on just 196 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:53,199 Speaker 1: generally how I feel about these players. Rodriguez is a 197 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 1: very good early down bruiser. That's what he's been throughout 198 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: his NFL career. He's actually been one of the best 199 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 1: tackle breakers. When comes to the data, PFF charted him 200 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: with an above average avoided tackles per attempt last year, 201 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: and he was top ten in yards after contact per 202 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: attempt among one hundred plus attempt rushers. He's been great 203 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 1: within that metric throughout his career. No one should really 204 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: question if Rodriguez is decent between the tackles. He's decent. 205 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:20,560 Speaker 1: That's why he's going to be involved in this offense. 206 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: This wasn't just some depth signing. He also has a 207 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: history with Liam Cohen. The issue that I have with 208 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 1: focusing so heavily on the rushing analysis is that fantasy 209 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:35,359 Speaker 1: football is one with a more well rounded profile. Otherwise 210 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,720 Speaker 1: it's just Jordan Mason or Gus Edwards, where we're just 211 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 1: crossing our fingers that the guy finds the end zone. 212 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: And Chris Rodriguez has never proven to be a pass catcher. 213 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: He had twenty receptions in five collegiate seasons. He's got 214 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:53,599 Speaker 1: six total passes in three NFL seasons. And I was 215 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 1: actually curious about this. I was curious if we've ever seen, 216 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 1: at least in recent history, if we've seen a running 217 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 1: back was so so few receptions after three seasons go 218 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,839 Speaker 1: on and be fantasy relevant in some way. So I 219 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: looked at all running backs who started their career in 220 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: twenty eleven or later who then had an opportunity to 221 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,559 Speaker 1: play three seasons in the league. I then looked at 222 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: all running backs who had twenty or fewer receptions across 223 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: their first three years, and then I looked to see 224 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 1: if any of them became relevant after year three. Only 225 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 1: one player scored more than thirteen ppyard points per game 226 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 1: in a season after failing to reach twenty receptions through 227 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: three years, and that was raheem mostered. You had some 228 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 1: players get into that twelve point range, including ric o'dowdele, 229 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: but absolutely none of the running backs listed were fantasy 230 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: football staples. And the crazy thing is that you could 231 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 1: limit that to thirty receptions across the player's first three years. 232 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: You'll start to get some better names like mark Ingram 233 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 1: and JK. Dobbins, but it's really a rare thing to 234 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: have happen. The reason we see this is because obviously 235 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 1: receiving matters a lot in fantasy football, especially in PPR formats, 236 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 1: but it's also a signal of talent. If a player 237 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: is more well rounded, he's probably more talented unless he's 238 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:09,280 Speaker 1: just Derrick Henry Rodriguez is just one of those players 239 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 1: to me who can definitely beat his ADP depending on 240 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: where it lands. But I don't play fantasy football for 241 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 1: the RB forty or the RB thirty to finish five 242 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: to ten running back spots higher than that. I want 243 00:12:21,840 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 1: serious upside, and to me, that lies more with Bashall 244 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: Tutin in this backfield. It may not come to fruition. Again, 245 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 1: Let's see if this hype train gets out of control 246 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:35,320 Speaker 1: before we say we definitively need to invest in base 247 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 1: Shall Tuton. Like me, saying Tutin has more upside is 248 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:43,559 Speaker 1: not an automatic endorsement no matter what, because cost matters. 249 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:47,160 Speaker 1: What I am saying here, though, is that if there's 250 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: a running back who emerges from this backfield and becomes 251 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,079 Speaker 1: a fantasy football stud, I'm gonna say it's Bashall Tuton 252 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 1: versus Chris Rodriguez. Because for Rodriguez to be that guy, 253 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:00,719 Speaker 1: he's probably gonna need to score a lot of touchdowns 254 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,199 Speaker 1: because I don't think the receiving work is going to 255 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: be amazing. Whereas Basehall Tuton, he actually had a decent 256 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:10,959 Speaker 1: receiving profile entering the NFL, and like I said, there 257 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 1: were some marks last year where he looked good. He 258 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 1: had a way better success rate than Travis etn. But 259 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: if you want to read more about base Shall Tuten, 260 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: I have his profile in that prospect guid in the 261 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,960 Speaker 1: year two section. But look, guys, I think this is 262 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 1: just a game theory thing. This is how I play 263 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 1: fantasy football, how I think others should play fantasy football. 264 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 1: I don't want the single. I want the home run. 265 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 1: It's why I've talked this exact way about Jordan Mason 266 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 1: or Tank Bigsby in the past. The past catching up 267 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 1: side just isn't there. I want the home run, and 268 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:48,680 Speaker 1: to me currently today that home run upside lies with 269 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: base Shall Tuton. Mike Evans of San Francisco is very interesting. 270 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 1: Evans analytically had a down year, at least within the 271 00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: production and efficiency metrics that we tend to focus on. 272 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,079 Speaker 1: His one point six to two yards per route run 273 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:04,559 Speaker 1: that was a career low. He had an abysmal one 274 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: point one yards after the catch per reception, and that 275 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,560 Speaker 1: wasn't on some abnormally high average depth of target. He 276 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 1: also scored just three times in eight games. That's not 277 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 1: great for him, But we have to keep in mind 278 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:17,559 Speaker 1: that per game numbers are going to be skewed a 279 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: little bit when a player leaves the game early. And 280 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: then on top of that, Evans was just hurt throughout 281 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: the season. Baker Mayfield was also not very good last year. 282 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 1: Out of over one hundred and twenty qualified wide receivers, 283 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: both Evans and teammate and Mecca Buca ranked outside the 284 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 1: top one hundred and catchable target rates last year. What 285 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: I like to see about Evans profiles that the volume 286 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: still wasn't bad. His twenty three percent target shair is solid, 287 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: especially when you consider the injuries, and he saw target 288 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 1: on twenty seven percent of his routes run That was 289 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: actually much higher than his career average. So on one hand, 290 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: his effectiveness suffered, his numbers didn't look great, But on 291 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: the other we know that his quarterback play wasn't strong 292 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 1: last year and he was still targeted at a really 293 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: strong rate. Now he goes to a friendly offensive environment 294 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: in San Francisco where say what you want about brock Purty, 295 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: but he was second in completion percentage over expected last 296 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 1: year according to Extend Stats, and he was eighth the 297 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 1: year prior. He also finished first in the NFL last 298 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 1: year and completion rate on twenty plus air yard throws, 299 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: and we know that Mike Evans can win down the field. 300 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: George Kittle's coming off a brutal injury. Juwan Jennings isn't 301 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 1: there anymore, neither his friend of the show Kendrick Bourne. 302 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: Brandon Aiyuk won't be back. Ricky Pearsall hasn't proven to 303 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 1: be the guy yet. This situation really couldn't be better 304 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 1: for Mike Evans if he stays healthy. That's obviously a 305 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: big if, but I like this a lot from a 306 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 1: fantasy perspective. Now. Admittedly, I've been somewhat of a Kyler 307 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 1: Murray apologist in the past, and if you listen to 308 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: the Late Round show, you heard me get very excited 309 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 1: about Kyler Murray going to the Vikings when it was 310 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: more of a rumor. But it's not a rumor anymore. 311 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 1: It's real. I'm not going to pretend like I can 312 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 1: evaluate quarter play as well as I can evaluate the 313 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: other skill positions. It's really really difficult. It's often a 314 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: between the ears thing for these guys, and we don't 315 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: have access to that, and we have to rely on 316 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 1: situation and coaching matches to really feel confident situationally. This 317 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: is pretty great for Kyler. The weapons are great around him, 318 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 1: and there weren't many spots out there where we'd feel 319 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 1: this good in general. I do think though, that my 320 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 1: friend Rich reebar or Sharp Football Analysis, he made a 321 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 1: great point about Kyler Murray joining the Vikings. We're not 322 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: seeing as many spread based offenses in today's game than 323 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,920 Speaker 1: we were earlier in Kyler's career. Quarterbacks are having to 324 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 1: play better down the middle of the field, and this 325 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: is a big reason that JAJ McCarthy was a problem 326 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 1: for Minnesota last year. As Rich noted quote on throws 327 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: between the hashes over the past four seasons when the 328 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 1: defensive shifts started to take place, Murray ranks forty third 329 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: in rating out of the fifty passers to throw the 330 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 1: ball five hundred plus times. From a fantasy perspective, though, 331 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 1: I think we get the following a better floor for 332 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 1: the Vikings passing attack compared to last year with JJ McCarthy, 333 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: because even Kyler Murray's worst season was better than JJ 334 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 1: McCarthy last year. Let's be real. Meanwhile, Murray's averaged four 335 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 1: point seven rushing yards per game or better every season 336 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 1: of his career. Murray's not really the type of quarterback 337 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: that we've seen with Kevin O'Connell, even if you just 338 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 1: look at under center rates. But I also think that 339 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 1: we're bound to see this offense morph into one that 340 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,880 Speaker 1: fits Murray himself. That's what good coaches do. So if 341 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 1: you believe in that happening, which I do, you should 342 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: probably believe in Murray being an interesting later round pick 343 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 1: this year because if it clicks. From a passing perspective, 344 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 1: the ceiling is really nice given we know that rushing 345 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 1: production should be there. I actually think Murray's upside is 346 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 1: greater than Malik Willis has just given the offensive environment. 347 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 1: Willis is going to Miami and we should assume that 348 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 1: he's going to be starting. I'm probably gonna be in 349 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 1: on him from a fantasy perspective, just because we know 350 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: how important rushing is. Willis was a high end QB 351 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 1: one and two of his three starts with a Packers. 352 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,480 Speaker 1: That's because in those games he gave fantasy managers three 353 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:07,160 Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. The ground game stuff should not be debated 354 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: with Malik Willis. He is a phenomenal rusher and that's 355 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 1: always something that we should be looking for with the 356 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 1: fantasy quarterback, the mobility, the rushing. But Willis still has 357 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,199 Speaker 1: an unknown arm. Literally he's only thrown the ball one 358 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:22,400 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty five times in the NFL. But in 359 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: that Brandon Gadula newsletter blast last week, he did say this, 360 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 1: which was really interesting. Willis is a career fifteen plus 361 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: air yard rate of twenty four point five percent. The 362 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 1: league average since twenty eleven is eighteen point one percent, 363 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: two a tounu of iloas it was fourteen point one 364 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 1: percent or under in each of the last two seasons. 365 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 1: So Malik Willis has been pushing it deep. We're probably 366 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,480 Speaker 1: gonna see this Dolphins offense attempt a ton of explosive 367 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: plays with Malik Willis under center, and with him having 368 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 1: the floor that he has, that can generate a really 369 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:58,159 Speaker 1: high weekly ceiling when those plays hit. Now quarterback is 370 00:18:58,200 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 1: deep enough where Willis is going to be a cube 371 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: adp and historically, when you can find mobile quarterbacks in 372 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,440 Speaker 1: QB two land, they generally give us just as high 373 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 1: as ceilings as earlier round pocket passers. It may be 374 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 1: a bad situation for someone like Devon A Chan in particular, 375 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: who really relied on heavy receiving usage with Mike McDaniel. 376 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 1: But Willis himself should be on everyone's late round radar 377 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: if he wasn't already one wide receiver. I want to 378 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: just move through quickly and just touch on his Romeo. 379 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 1: Dobbs going to New England, mostly because right now, if 380 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: you look at that depth chart, he's basically staring at 381 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: the highest target chair on the team next year. But 382 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: I don't want to fall victim to just drafting Dobbs 383 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 1: because of some default because of the lack of competition there. 384 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 1: Usually at wide receiver, you need good players to earn 385 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: those targets. Now, I think Dobbs is good, but probably 386 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: not great. He's impressively improved his yards per rout run 387 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 1: every year of his career. That's great, but it's never 388 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: been like elite. He maxed out last year at a 389 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,679 Speaker 1: one point seventy three yards per out run rate, and 390 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 1: that's in a Matt laflor off that typically yields stronger 391 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 1: per route run numbers. Now, I think the signing was fine, 392 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 1: but Dobbs isn't someone who I'm jumping for joy over 393 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 1: as a player who's likely to ascend to some alpha 394 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 1: in this league, which tells me that we're going to 395 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 1: see a lot of spread out targets in New England 396 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: next year, depending on what they do in the draft. 397 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 1: But even in the draft, they could go at the 398 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 1: end of the first three rounds and try to get 399 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 1: a wide receiver. I just don't think that this class 400 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: is littered with obvious talent at wide out. It's a 401 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: solid class. It's better a wide receiver than it is 402 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 1: running back. But I don't think there's obvious obvious talent 403 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:35,880 Speaker 1: at the end of the first round, into the second round, 404 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,679 Speaker 1: and into the third. So that's not bad for Dobbs 405 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: in the short term. My overall sentiment here, it's a 406 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 1: little bit of an upgrade from green Bay simply because 407 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 1: there's way less talent in the way. But I'm honestly 408 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,639 Speaker 1: more intrigued about green Bay without Dobbs, even though this 409 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 1: is likely going to happen. Christian Watson looked great last year, 410 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 1: Jaden Reed has always been super efficient, and then maybe 411 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 1: there's a little bit more juice with Matthew Golden than 412 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:00,680 Speaker 1: what we saw last year. Even if I think has 413 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 1: a ton of red flags but less of a rotation 414 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 1: in Green Bay could equate to more fantasy goodness for 415 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:11,679 Speaker 1: their wide receivers. The biggest tight end signing was probably 416 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: Isaiah Likely. He's back with his head coach, but now 417 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 1: he's in New York with Jackson Dart. It sounded like 418 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: Derek Brown was pretty bullish on this signing base on 419 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 1: his reaction on perspectives last week, and I get it, 420 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 1: but I'm probably like a notch down from that. I'll 421 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 1: say this first, where I definitely agree with debro is 422 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,120 Speaker 1: that we should be shooting for upside at tight end, 423 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 1: So why would we not get a guy like Likely. 424 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: I think that's pretty valid. If a later round pick 425 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 1: doesn't pan out, it's not that big of a deal. 426 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 1: But here's the thing. The dude has seen at best 427 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,199 Speaker 1: a target on nineteen percent of his routes in a 428 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: given season since his rookie campaign. His yards per route 429 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: run has never hit one point six, and yet he's 430 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 1: played with Mark Andrews. But let's not pretend that Andrews 431 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 1: has been Stutley over the last couple of seasons. He 432 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,640 Speaker 1: was actually horrific this last year on a per route 433 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: run basis. I just don't think that Likely has definitively 434 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,959 Speaker 1: shown us that he can be a high volume fantasy 435 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:05,199 Speaker 1: football stud when there are definitely people who are in 436 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,120 Speaker 1: love with his skill set. With that being said, it's 437 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,520 Speaker 1: a pretty open pass catching room and the Giants they 438 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 1: lost Wandel Robinson out of the slot, so likely he 439 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,159 Speaker 1: could be freed up for some looks there. THEO Johnson 440 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 1: could be somewhat of a blocker for likely, and I 441 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: do think opportunities should be okay overall, I just don't 442 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 1: want to get two out of hand here because he's 443 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 1: had opportunities in the past. He's had opportunities to prove 444 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 1: that he's elite at least on a per route run basis, 445 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,120 Speaker 1: and that has not shown up. And that tight end 446 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 1: I really just won an elite guy, or I'm just 447 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: not going to really care that much about the position. Okay. 448 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,679 Speaker 1: I think one of the big fantasy football centric stories 449 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 1: from free agency this year were all the small running 450 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: back signings and trades. Can't forget about David Montgomery. So 451 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,680 Speaker 1: to close out today's show, I'm gonna give really quick 452 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 1: thoughts on some of those situations. David Montgomery to Houston. 453 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 1: He gets a pretty decent contract. I'd expect him to 454 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 1: be the early down bruiser in the goal line guy, 455 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 1: playing a similar role that he did with early career 456 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 1: Jamier Gibbs would he Marx would be sort of the 457 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,679 Speaker 1: change of pace, maybe the pass catching specialist. But the 458 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,600 Speaker 1: offensive situation for Houston it's not fantastic. They needed a 459 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: player like David Montgomery who could hopefully create some of 460 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:23,199 Speaker 1: those yards. Rico Dowdell to Pittsburgh. Jalen Warren plays more 461 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 1: of a pass catching role, but Mike McCarthy has a 462 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 1: history with Rico Dowdell. I'm not going to be surprised, 463 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,200 Speaker 1: to add all. If Dowdell sees more work on the ground, 464 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 1: like a sixty to forty type split and that goal 465 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:37,160 Speaker 1: line work, it's a bad offensive situation, though more than likely. 466 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:42,200 Speaker 1: Tyler Algier to Arizona. People have been waiting for Trey Benson, 467 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: but this is a new coaching staff and Benson, in 468 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 1: my opinion and I have receipts, he was an overrated prospect. 469 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 1: It was different last year when the cost to acquire 470 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,880 Speaker 1: Benson was just so low in redraft after all those 471 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,439 Speaker 1: injuries happened, but then he just didn't return to the lineup. 472 00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,919 Speaker 1: James Connor's coming off a big injury. He's clearly on 473 00:23:59,920 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 1: the wrong side of the age curve. So there's Algier. 474 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,399 Speaker 1: On one hand, he hasn't been that much of a 475 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,119 Speaker 1: pass catcher throughout his career. He's maxed out at a 476 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,320 Speaker 1: four point six percent target chair. On the other he's 477 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,199 Speaker 1: played with Bijon Robinson. But I will say this, his 478 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,240 Speaker 1: yards prout run has generally been kind of iffy. I 479 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,199 Speaker 1: don't think we'd consider Tyler Algeer a huge plus as 480 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,400 Speaker 1: a receiver. The reason I think Arizona one in Algier 481 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,159 Speaker 1: is because Mike Lafleur he's now head coach there, and 482 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:30,159 Speaker 1: Algier has been strong on outside zone runs. Over the 483 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 1: last two years. He's ranked top ten in outside zone 484 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,920 Speaker 1: success rate. I don't think we should be overly bullish 485 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 1: because of the receiving stuff. But if there is a 486 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 1: running back who I'd expect to see the most work 487 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 1: in that backfield next year, it's Tyler Algier. Kenneth Gainwell 488 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,160 Speaker 1: to Tampa Bay. I'm not gonna lie you, guys. I'm 489 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: nervous about Bucky Irving's upside. Not only did Kenneth Gainwell 490 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 1: sign with Tampa Bay, but the Bucks kept Sean Tucker. 491 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,119 Speaker 1: He was the goal line back for them down the 492 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 1: stretch last year. I'm nervous about Irving right now here 493 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,480 Speaker 1: in March because he gets I see a lot of 494 00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,439 Speaker 1: between the twenties touches with a slightly kepped receiving ceiling 495 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 1: given gain Will's ability as a pass catcher. And then 496 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,600 Speaker 1: he also wouldn't see the goal line stuff, so I 497 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 1: wouldn't dismiss this signing. The one thing keeping me in 498 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 1: check with Irving is that new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson 499 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 1: made a Bijon Robinson comparison when talking about Bucky Irving 500 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 1: when he first joined the team. When Robinson joined the team. 501 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,280 Speaker 1: But that's also just straight up coach speak to me. 502 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 1: When you sign Kenneth Gainwell, when you take that action, 503 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:30,640 Speaker 1: you're doing it because you know what he can bring 504 00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,439 Speaker 1: to the table as a receiver. And that was all 505 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,159 Speaker 1: while losing Rashad White to the Commanders. Washington also got 506 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 1: Jerome Ford. No, those are both general wins in my 507 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: opinion for Jacorey Krossky merrit as long as your expectations 508 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,199 Speaker 1: weren't out of control. For Bill to begin with, he 509 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 1: showed us very little as a receiver as a rookie, 510 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 1: and his receiving profile in college was really lacking. So 511 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 1: I don't think Krossky Merritt is all of a sudden 512 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 1: gonna be a bell cow. But I do think competition wise, 513 00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:01,159 Speaker 1: Rashad White and Jerome Ford not bad. We'll see if 514 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 1: something happens though with Jeremiah Love in the draft. Isaiah 515 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,560 Speaker 1: Pacheco to Detroit generally the right kind of fit, but 516 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: he's a downgrade from David Montgomery, so Jamir gives to 517 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 1: the moon. I think Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers is 518 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:18,200 Speaker 1: really interesting from a fit perspective, because we know Mike McDaniel, 519 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 1: now their offensive coordinator, loves speed, so don't lose sight 520 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 1: of Keaton Mitchell. But the last big one to get 521 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: to here is JK. Dobbins staying in Denver. I've actually 522 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,360 Speaker 1: changed my tune since January, at least a little bit, 523 00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 1: given the overall sentiment with RJ. Harvey. I thought he 524 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 1: was a clear sell to start the off season, and 525 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 1: I believe that to be true at that time, But 526 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 1: then there were all sorts of reports about the Broncos 527 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,439 Speaker 1: adding someone significant to that backfield, and prices started to 528 00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 1: fall for RJ. Harvey. My takes change as the market changes. 529 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 1: Since that show, his running back ranking on keep Trade 530 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 1: Cut has gotten down six to seven spots. That's pretty significant. 531 00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,159 Speaker 1: But really I think the runout here for RJ. Harvey 532 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 1: has been pretty good. There were strong rumors that someone 533 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,399 Speaker 1: like Kenneth Walker was gonna go to Denver, and we 534 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 1: know Dobbins hasn't been able to stay healthy throughout his career. 535 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,400 Speaker 1: I do have to say, though, that Dobbins was better 536 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 1: than RJ. Harvey on the ground last year. I pretty 537 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,440 Speaker 1: much every statistical category. Harvey was one of the worst 538 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,479 Speaker 1: running backs in rushing yards over expected per rush according 539 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:23,320 Speaker 1: to Next Gen Stats. Dobbins wasn't deployed that much as 540 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,680 Speaker 1: a receiver though. That helps Harvey a ton in fantasy 541 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,399 Speaker 1: football because that was the thing that allowed him to 542 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,440 Speaker 1: stay relevant in fantasy football last year. Now, the team 543 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,880 Speaker 1: re signed Jualil McLaughlin to a one year deal too, 544 00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 1: But Benjamin Albright, who covers the Broncos, he said on 545 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 1: Twitter quote Broncos continued to build out the ninety man. 546 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,680 Speaker 1: This obviously does not affect their plans to draft a 547 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:48,119 Speaker 1: running back, so we're not yet in the clear. With RJ. Harvey. 548 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:50,440 Speaker 1: I just am not a huge fan of this running 549 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 1: back class. So there aren't a ton of options that 550 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 1: would really scare me with RJ Harvey this year because 551 00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 1: I would assume they're not going to get Jeremiah Love. 552 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,119 Speaker 1: So here's where I'm at with Harvey. If your expectations 553 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 1: that he can be in RB two, have some pass 554 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,400 Speaker 1: catching work and do work from that perspective, I think 555 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,159 Speaker 1: that's reasonable. I just don't think he's going to be 556 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 1: a bell cow. I never thought he was going to 557 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,200 Speaker 1: be a bell cow. But I do think that where 558 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:16,399 Speaker 1: I was a month ago or two months ago and 559 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 1: saying that RJ. Harvey was a clear sell, just based 560 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 1: on what the market has done, I think now he's 561 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 1: probably more of a hold because he's still going to 562 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,639 Speaker 1: be involved in that offense, and truthfully, the receiving stuff 563 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 1: for him last year really not that bad. So that 564 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 1: was a lot. I covered a lot of situations. I 565 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:36,920 Speaker 1: talked about a lot of players. I threw a lot 566 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 1: of stats at you. Hopefully there was something in all 567 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:40,959 Speaker 1: of that that made you think a little bit differently 568 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 1: about what went down in free agency this year. But 569 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,200 Speaker 1: that's it for today's show. Thanks to all of you 570 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 1: for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round 571 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:50,960 Speaker 1: Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are a by stretching 572 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 1: for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and 573 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late 574 00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 1: Round QB. Thanks for listening to everyone. We're back with 575 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 1: the Late ren On Show on YouTube on Wednesday at noon, 576 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,520 Speaker 1: and I've got a mailbag episode later in the week, 577 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 1: and make sure you're checking out the Late Round Prospect 578 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 1: Guide Lateround dot com. I'll talk to you guys soon.