Speaker 1: You found Fantasy Football Weekly Micro, a deep dive on
Speaker 1: one player in just five to ten minutes.
Speaker 2: Now here's your host.
Speaker 3: It's Fantasy Football Weekly Micro. Addition, I am Paul Charchie
Speaker 3: and my co host as usual, Tyler Canabile. People want
Speaker 3: to follow you on Twitter, Tyler, I forget what you
Speaker 3: renamed your Twitter account. It's like at PPR Tyler, at
Speaker 3: PPR Tyler. That's it PPR Tyler. All right, fantastic. We
Speaker 3: were still debt debating what PPR stands for. Did the
Speaker 3: rash clear up?
Speaker 2: Point per reception?
Speaker 3: Point per reception?
Speaker 2: That's it? Yeah, that's it. Yeah, that's it.
Speaker 3: You got all these opportunities to be like so much
Speaker 3: more interesting than points per reception. Why can't it be
Speaker 3: uh parts per parts per I mean, well.
Speaker 1: I know there's like a lot of people, Like one
Speaker 1: of my friends is into photography. His is like his
Speaker 1: Instagram is like his name dot jpeg, like some people
Speaker 1: some people will do that, or like she'll be warr
Speaker 1: into like music dot MP three.
Speaker 2: So I can see that I should have done Tyler
Speaker 2: dot PPR could have done that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd still want to want to know if PPR
Speaker 3: was anything cooler than points perception.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just just just fantacy football related.
Speaker 3: So last last time, yesterday we broke down Garrett Wilson
Speaker 3: and it was kind of a love fest, almost embarrassing.
Speaker 3: This time it's Chris Olave taken in the draft right
Speaker 3: next to Garrett Wilson. They end up in two different spots.
Speaker 3: They have some similarity in the season that they had
Speaker 3: last year quarterbacks, a big divergence for these two this
Speaker 3: year and their ultimate landing spot. There's gonna be, uh,
Speaker 3: there's gonna be a lot of comparisons here. Olave, like
Speaker 3: Wilson finished, you know, I want to say that they
Speaker 3: both finished like the mid twenties at the wide receiver position,
Speaker 3: both from skyrocketing and ADP.
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. So Chris Alave, I mean, he's getting better
Speaker 1: quarterback play now. He was the wide sever twenty one
Speaker 1: last season. Average White is sever thirty one in average
Speaker 1: points per game And oh no, sorry, that's Garret Wilson.
Speaker 1: My bad, I was on there on sheet. He's why
Speaker 1: is heaver twenty five last season? Why deceiver twenty seven
Speaker 1: average points per game? And he's the wide receiver twelve
Speaker 1: going off the board in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 3: So he's moving from the mid twenties up to twelve.
Speaker 3: Everybody's expecting a second year boom for Chris. I like
Speaker 3: Garret Wilson, Like Garrett Wilson. We talked how about how
Speaker 3: much we liked Garrett Wilson yesterday. I'm a lot more
Speaker 3: Luke Rman on Chris Alave for reasons we're going to
Speaker 3: talk about here. I don't think they automatically move in
Speaker 3: tandem and make the big jump here. But let's talk
Speaker 3: about some of the things that we like about Garrett
Speaker 3: chrysal Lobby.
Speaker 1: Let's be the last comparison I do, but on Chris
Speaker 1: Lave and Garret Wilson's player profile or like thing, they
Speaker 1: have the most comparable player in terms of like each
Speaker 1: other athlete, like height, weights, beat all that.
Speaker 2: It's each other, which is hilarious.
Speaker 1: Same school taken into the draft, same similar twist in
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 2: So sought that was interesting.
Speaker 1: But he was great in some of the stats that
Speaker 1: like you kind of look at in that matter for
Speaker 1: fantasy football in my opinion. So he was number ten
Speaker 1: in yards per rout run, a really good stat Yeah,
Speaker 1: we like that, number nine in yards per team pass attempt,
Speaker 1: and he was number two in target rate versus man
Speaker 1: a really nice stat for him. So he's when we're
Speaker 1: gonna man coverage.
Speaker 3: They went out of their way to get.
Speaker 1: Him, exactly Yeah, exactly right. And he's also not number
Speaker 1: twelve in route win rate.
Speaker 3: Six that's very good for a rookie.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it, exactly.
Speaker 3: Love to have the high win rate percentage.
Speaker 2: Yep. Sixth in target targeted air yards.
Speaker 3: That's fantastic. And that's and that was with Andy Dalton.
Speaker 3: We're gonna talk a little bit more about Andy Dalton
Speaker 3: in a little bit here, but that fact, you know,
Speaker 3: we think of Andy Dalton as a noodle armed quarterback
Speaker 3: dumping off short stuff. The fact that Chris Alave was
Speaker 3: able to be sixth and targeted air yards feels very promising.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 1: And then the last two stats here, fourth and cushion
Speaker 1: at seven point two yards.
Speaker 2: That's pretty takes.
Speaker 3: A lot of respect from defenses right there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, he was a Blazer Ohio State. That's kind
Speaker 1: of like what his role was. Yes, and then seventh
Speaker 1: and percentage of team targets.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean that passing offense largely went through
Speaker 3: Chrystal Lobby because they just don't have a lot of
Speaker 3: other talent there and Michael Thomas.
Speaker 1: Jeez, just he's hurt again now. So yeah, unbelievable. I
Speaker 1: thought was funny like three weeks ago. It's like it's
Speaker 1: like a video is like Michael Thomas looking healthy. It's
Speaker 1: just a video of him running.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go, he can run.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is It's one of the saddest falloffs in
Speaker 3: fantasy football, is what's happened to Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas
Speaker 3: was you know, in his heyday with Drew Brees, he
Speaker 3: was the surest pick in fantasy football. The dude was
Speaker 3: just he was absolute money. And then he had just
Speaker 3: the ankle injury which turned into a bigger anchor injury
Speaker 3: and then not able to come back from that series
Speaker 3: of injuries. It's just sad fall off for him. But
Speaker 3: back to chrys O.
Speaker 2: Lobby.
Speaker 3: Love the fact that he had one hundred and nineteen
Speaker 3: targets that got him a lot of seasoning last year.
Speaker 3: I love that part. There's really not a lot of anybody,
Speaker 3: There's not other players who are going to siphon off
Speaker 3: a lot of work from him.
Speaker 1: He Yeah, Kamara was the next closest person in targets
Speaker 1: last season with seventy seven, and then Juwan Johnson at
Speaker 1: sixty five.
Speaker 2: The closest receiver in terms of targets to Chris A.
Speaker 1: Lave was Jarvis Landry with thirty nine targets on the
Speaker 1: entire season.
Speaker 3: They think about that Chris Alave had one hundred and
Speaker 3: nineteen targets at wide receiver and the next closest receiver
Speaker 3: had thirty nine.
Speaker 2: Oh, it's unbelievad that's ubelievable. That's an unbelievable set. It
Speaker 2: really is thirty nine. I couldn't.
Speaker 1: I feel like I remember Charvis Landry doing like some
Speaker 1: stuff last year. I couldn't believe it was thirty nine targets.
Speaker 1: And I think he was hurt a little bit too.
Speaker 1: But it's still insane.
Speaker 3: So now let's let's try about the other competition that's
Speaker 3: there for targets, especially at wide receiver. Michael Thomas maybe
Speaker 3: maybe not. I mean, I don't even know if think
Speaker 3: I could play anymore? Can he run? I don't know.
Speaker 3: And then at one of my favorite sleepers, Rashid Shahed,
Speaker 3: dude came onlast year and he is fast, a lot
Speaker 3: of got best ball he'd be. He's a great late
Speaker 3: round dark thrown best ball. Rashid chi Head I think
Speaker 3: will be the number two wide receiver this year.
Speaker 2: I'm with you.
Speaker 1: If Michael Thomas isn't there, I think Rashichi he is
Speaker 1: the number two.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't count on Michael Thomas. I'd I'd rather
Speaker 3: have at the same ADP spot I would take for Shiheed.
Speaker 2: Michael Thomas is still going fairly high.
Speaker 1: I don't want to make this about a Michael Thomas show,
Speaker 1: but he's still going like right after kind of a
Speaker 1: Sean Babman in that tier, which seems really high. Guy
Speaker 1: who's done nothing for the better part of three years.
Speaker 3: I couldn't be more out on that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's ridiculous.
Speaker 3: All right, let's talk about the quarterback situation. If you
Speaker 3: take nothing away, nothing else away from this show, this podcast, listeners,
Speaker 3: Derek Carr is not the upgrade you think he is.
Speaker 3: Let's talk about this. Yes, he propelled DeVante Adams to
Speaker 3: a top five Fantasy finish last year, so we know
Speaker 3: he can do that, and that's would be your upside
Speaker 3: for christ Labbe. But is he better than Andy Dalton.
Speaker 3: Let's dig into the numbers. Tyler completion percentage Dalton seven
Speaker 3: percent more accurate than Derek Carr. Advantage Dalton yards per attempt.
Speaker 3: We care about this. How deep are you throwing downfield?
Speaker 3: Dalton seven point six Car seven point zero advantage Dalton.
Speaker 3: Theme here PFF passer grade. Andy Dalton was the sixth
Speaker 3: highest graded PFF passer last year. Derek Carr twenty fifth.
Speaker 3: Advantage Dalton.
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna let you get away with that one.
Speaker 1: That just you're gonna tell me PFF passor we're to
Speaker 1: say that Andy Dalton's a top six passer in the league.
Speaker 2: Is no loo.
Speaker 3: I don't have to defend PFF. You can decide if
Speaker 3: yourself whether they're.
Speaker 2: Look what that is.
Speaker 3: In next gen stats, expected completion percentage. Car was sixth worst,
Speaker 3: and all five of the quarterbacks under him were all
Speaker 3: starters who got benched at some point during the season.
Speaker 3: It's like Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinike and you know
Speaker 3: the bottom five CAR. It was a disaster. Also advantage Dalton.
Speaker 3: Now on deep passes, they're both bad cars. Adjusted completion
Speaker 3: percentage on passes of more than twenty yards was just
Speaker 3: thirty nine percent. Dalton was thirty one percent. I will
Speaker 3: give the slight nod here to Carr, but they were
Speaker 3: both bad on deep passes and troublingly, Dalton was better
Speaker 3: than Carr and all those metrics, and Dalton had the
Speaker 3: second shortest time to throw in the NFL among all
Speaker 3: quarterbacks last year, and Dalton was still better than Carr.
Speaker 3: So I'm here to tell you Derek Carr is no
Speaker 3: upgrade to Andy Dalton.
Speaker 2: It feels like he is.
Speaker 3: He's paid like he is. The expectations are that he is.
Speaker 3: The metrics don't prove it out.
Speaker 1: Well, we talked about on this show all the stats, well,
Speaker 1: because we did a Derek Carr episode, you can go
Speaker 1: back and listen to that, and we talked about how
Speaker 1: he was bottom five and all those accuracy stats right
Speaker 1: around the guys you mentioned, like Zach Wilson, Taylor, heine Key,
Speaker 1: those kind of guys. He had career high interceptions. But
Speaker 1: the thing that people are only going to care about
Speaker 1: despite he was this bad last season. Devanta Adams was
Speaker 1: wide receiver three last season despite all these numbers. So
Speaker 1: I think it's just becomes an argument of whether he
Speaker 1: might be a bad quarterback. Yes, I don't think he's
Speaker 1: a good quarterback at all. I'm not Derek Carr as
Speaker 1: like the players in terms of just drafting Derek Carr.
Speaker 1: But can he be good enough just to get Chris
Speaker 1: a lave all these these points, these yards, these touchdowns.
Speaker 1: That's kind of I think the argument is what it
Speaker 1: is right.
Speaker 3: Now, and I'm not I'm not convinced he can happen.
Speaker 3: I hope it happens. I have nothing against Chrys o lave.
Speaker 3: I'm not banking for where Chris a. Lobby is being
Speaker 3: taken wide receiver twelve, which means he's going to be
Speaker 3: a third round pick. I don't know that's putting a
Speaker 3: lot of that's putting a lot on on Derek Carr.
Speaker 3: Let's talk about some of the players going in the
Speaker 3: same relative area as Chris o'lave.
Speaker 2: I think note to note all these players too. They
Speaker 2: all have good quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: I think, like, now that you mention it, Chris Love
Speaker 1: is the highest guy with like the like a noticeably
Speaker 1: bad quarterback. I would say, yeah, which is kind of interesting.
Speaker 1: All the other guys have good quarterbacks. So all right,
Speaker 1: let's dive into it. Get Jalen Wattle, why deceiver eleven.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll take Waddle and the upside that that. I
Speaker 3: think that's more well. They both have actually they both
Speaker 3: have really good upside, and they both have the ability
Speaker 3: to be explosive with deep plays. Yeah, I'm gonna take Waddle.
Speaker 2: Yeah I'll go Watle too on that feel a little
Speaker 2: more proven. Davante Smith why deceiver thirteen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm gonna go Smith. He was shockingly
Speaker 3: he was shockingly uh consistent last year. Now the fact
Speaker 3: that he's the clear number two and sometimes number three
Speaker 3: receiver on his own team depending on you know, you
Speaker 3: know game plan and whether or not you've got to
Speaker 3: They've got a healthy tight end to Dallas Goddard. That
Speaker 3: does worry me a little bit. Yeah, I think I'm
Speaker 3: gonna go Smith. I want part of the Eagles offense.
Speaker 2: This one's a tough one for This is tough, isn't it.
Speaker 1: I think I go a Lave just because I think
Speaker 1: a Lave has a higher ceiling, just in terms of
Speaker 1: a lot of these guys are kind of either wideceiver
Speaker 1: twos or wideceiver ones with a lot of competition.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Chris Lave like as we.
Speaker 1: Mentioned, is the white one zero. Competition's fair even longly
Speaker 1: you get better this season I think too.
Speaker 3: Well, same things with the next player up, T Higgins.
Speaker 2: Exactly, Higgs.
Speaker 3: Do I want the number two wide receiver we know
Speaker 3: is really good catch a pass from Joe Burrow? Or
Speaker 3: do I want the number one from Derek Carr? Oh?
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna take I think i'd take Chi
Speaker 3: t Higgins here, h and I take the consistency.
Speaker 2: I really like T Higgins. I'm gonna go te Higgins. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm with you on that. Who's next? Dk Metcalf? Why
Speaker 2: is here? Fifteen? Wide deceiver one? Seemingly on his own team?
Speaker 2: But a lot of competition for targets in that in
Speaker 2: that offense.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and more so now after the draft.
Speaker 2: It's tough. It's it's really tough a lobby. This is
Speaker 2: why a lob is going twelve.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I might go. I might go Chris
Speaker 3: A Lave here. Okay, Yeah, I fink I've finally found
Speaker 3: my breaking point where I'm gonna go Chris Olave.
Speaker 1: All right, I'll go Chris Lave as well. Calvin Ridley
Speaker 1: wide receiver sixteen.
Speaker 3: I've got Ridley at twenty, so you know, and I
Speaker 3: like Ridley, but you know, I'm optimistic, but I think
Speaker 3: sixteen is hyper optimistic. You know, Christian Kirk was like
Speaker 3: wide receiver twelve last year and maybe even better wide
Speaker 3: receiver nine, something like that, And everybody assumes Christian Kirk's
Speaker 3: just gonna like, like, don't drive his car off a
Speaker 3: cliff and just disappear, and it's suddenly the whole, the
Speaker 3: whole passing offense is gonna go to Calvin Ridley. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I don't think that's a fair assumption.
Speaker 2: Who do you think is a higher upside?
Speaker 1: Though, Let's say, let's say let's just play this game,
Speaker 1: hypothetical game.
Speaker 2: We don't wish injuries upon anyone.
Speaker 1: Let's say Chris Christian Kirk goes down Week three and
Speaker 1: he's out for the year.
Speaker 3: Well it's Calvin Then I'd probably Calvin Ridley.
Speaker 1: You think Calvin Ridley has a higher upside than Chris
Speaker 1: A Lave? Who do you think guys are a higher upside?
Speaker 1: Just overall? Even with Christian Kirk, there.
Speaker 3: A Lave's got freaky upside. If everything breaks just right, Yeah,
Speaker 3: he's got he could, he could find himself in the
Speaker 3: top six. He could, Yeah, just because the opportunity sheer talent, Yeah, opportunity,
Speaker 3: percentage of passes coming his way stuff like that.
Speaker 2: I really really like Calvin Ridley, but I think there's.
Speaker 3: No discount built into an ADP of sixteen.
Speaker 1: He's he's going like a round after a lave too,
Speaker 1: even though they only like four receivers.
Speaker 2: A part is a big tear drop after, like after
Speaker 2: a lave and waddle. It kind of feels like.
Speaker 1: A tear drop after like then we got Smith Higgins,
Speaker 1: I'd say, after Higgins, and then it gets to Metcalfien.
Speaker 2: Really it's like a tear drop kind of thing. But
Speaker 2: I'll go to Lave over Ridley just because, like you said,
Speaker 2: the upside.
Speaker 1: And I think I think Derek Carr might be a
Speaker 1: little better than you think, just because if I mean, yes,
Speaker 1: he had a bad season last year, but I think
Speaker 1: he can play better than that.
Speaker 2: We've seen him play better than two.
Speaker 3: So granted he was in a bad spot on a
Speaker 3: bad offense with very little help a terrible offensive line,
Speaker 3: but honestly, he had better receiver Derek Carr better receivers
Speaker 3: last year. I agree, Darren Waller and Hunter renfro and
Speaker 3: Devonte Adams, and you know there was he had more
Speaker 3: of a nice right.
Speaker 2: You know that.
Speaker 3: There's no guarantee for me on him whatsoever. Yeah, all right,
Speaker 3: this has been an overly long Fantasy Football Weekly micro edition.
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Speaker 2: Bye bye.
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