WEBVTT - FFW Micro - Chris Olave

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<v Speaker 1>You found Fantasy Football Weekly Micro, a deep dive on

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<v Speaker 1>one player in just five to ten minutes.

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<v Speaker 2>Now here's your host.

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<v Speaker 3>It's Fantasy Football Weekly Micro. Addition, I am Paul Charchie

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<v Speaker 3>and my co host as usual, Tyler Canabile. People want

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<v Speaker 3>to follow you on Twitter, Tyler, I forget what you

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<v Speaker 3>renamed your Twitter account. It's like at PPR Tyler, at

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<v Speaker 3>PPR Tyler. That's it PPR Tyler. All right, fantastic. We

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<v Speaker 3>were still debt debating what PPR stands for. Did the

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<v Speaker 3>rash clear up?

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<v Speaker 2>Point per reception?

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<v Speaker 3>Point per reception?

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<v Speaker 2>That's it? Yeah, that's it. Yeah, that's it.

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<v Speaker 3>You got all these opportunities to be like so much

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<v Speaker 3>more interesting than points per reception. Why can't it be

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<v Speaker 3>uh parts per parts per I mean, well.

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<v Speaker 1>I know there's like a lot of people, Like one

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<v Speaker 1>of my friends is into photography. His is like his

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<v Speaker 1>Instagram is like his name dot jpeg, like some people

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<v Speaker 1>some people will do that, or like she'll be warr

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<v Speaker 1>into like music dot MP three.

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<v Speaker 2>So I can see that I should have done Tyler

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<v Speaker 2>dot PPR could have done that.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I'd still want to want to know if PPR

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<v Speaker 3>was anything cooler than points perception.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, just just just fantacy football related.

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<v Speaker 3>So last last time, yesterday we broke down Garrett Wilson

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<v Speaker 3>and it was kind of a love fest, almost embarrassing.

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<v Speaker 3>This time it's Chris Olave taken in the draft right

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<v Speaker 3>next to Garrett Wilson. They end up in two different spots.

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<v Speaker 3>They have some similarity in the season that they had

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<v Speaker 3>last year quarterbacks, a big divergence for these two this

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<v Speaker 3>year and their ultimate landing spot. There's gonna be, uh,

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<v Speaker 3>there's gonna be a lot of comparisons here. Olave, like

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<v Speaker 3>Wilson finished, you know, I want to say that they

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<v Speaker 3>both finished like the mid twenties at the wide receiver position,

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<v Speaker 3>both from skyrocketing and ADP.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, exactly. So Chris Alave, I mean, he's getting better

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<v Speaker 1>quarterback play now. He was the wide sever twenty one

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<v Speaker 1>last season. Average White is sever thirty one in average

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<v Speaker 1>points per game And oh no, sorry, that's Garret Wilson.

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<v Speaker 1>My bad, I was on there on sheet. He's why

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<v Speaker 1>is heaver twenty five last season? Why deceiver twenty seven

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<v Speaker 1>average points per game? And he's the wide receiver twelve

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<v Speaker 1>going off the board in twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 3>So he's moving from the mid twenties up to twelve.

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<v Speaker 3>Everybody's expecting a second year boom for Chris. I like

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<v Speaker 3>Garret Wilson, Like Garrett Wilson. We talked how about how

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<v Speaker 3>much we liked Garrett Wilson yesterday. I'm a lot more

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<v Speaker 3>Luke Rman on Chris Alave for reasons we're going to

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<v Speaker 3>talk about here. I don't think they automatically move in

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<v Speaker 3>tandem and make the big jump here. But let's talk

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<v Speaker 3>about some of the things that we like about Garrett

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<v Speaker 3>chrysal Lobby.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's be the last comparison I do, but on Chris

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<v Speaker 1>Lave and Garret Wilson's player profile or like thing, they

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<v Speaker 1>have the most comparable player in terms of like each

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<v Speaker 1>other athlete, like height, weights, beat all that.

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<v Speaker 2>It's each other, which is hilarious.

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<v Speaker 1>Same school taken into the draft, same similar twist in

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<v Speaker 1>this year.

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<v Speaker 2>So sought that was interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>But he was great in some of the stats that

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<v Speaker 1>like you kind of look at in that matter for

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<v Speaker 1>fantasy football in my opinion. So he was number ten

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<v Speaker 1>in yards per rout run, a really good stat Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we like that, number nine in yards per team pass attempt,

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<v Speaker 1>and he was number two in target rate versus man

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<v Speaker 1>a really nice stat for him. So he's when we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna man coverage.

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<v Speaker 3>They went out of their way to get.

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<v Speaker 1>Him, exactly Yeah, exactly right. And he's also not number

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<v Speaker 1>twelve in route win rate.

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<v Speaker 3>Six that's very good for a rookie.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I love it, exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>Love to have the high win rate percentage.

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<v Speaker 2>Yep. Sixth in target targeted air yards.

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<v Speaker 3>That's fantastic. And that's and that was with Andy Dalton.

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<v Speaker 3>We're gonna talk a little bit more about Andy Dalton

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<v Speaker 3>in a little bit here, but that fact, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>we think of Andy Dalton as a noodle armed quarterback

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<v Speaker 3>dumping off short stuff. The fact that Chris Alave was

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<v Speaker 3>able to be sixth and targeted air yards feels very promising.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>And then the last two stats here, fourth and cushion

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<v Speaker 1>at seven point two yards.

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<v Speaker 2>That's pretty takes.

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<v Speaker 3>A lot of respect from defenses right there.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well, he was a Blazer Ohio State. That's kind

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<v Speaker 1>of like what his role was. Yes, and then seventh

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<v Speaker 1>and percentage of team targets.

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<v Speaker 3>So yeah, I mean that passing offense largely went through

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<v Speaker 3>Chrystal Lobby because they just don't have a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>other talent there and Michael Thomas.

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<v Speaker 1>Jeez, just he's hurt again now. So yeah, unbelievable. I

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<v Speaker 1>thought was funny like three weeks ago. It's like it's

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<v Speaker 1>like a video is like Michael Thomas looking healthy. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just a video of him running.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, let's go, he can run.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, this is It's one of the saddest falloffs in

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<v Speaker 3>fantasy football, is what's happened to Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas

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<v Speaker 3>was you know, in his heyday with Drew Brees, he

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<v Speaker 3>was the surest pick in fantasy football. The dude was

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<v Speaker 3>just he was absolute money. And then he had just

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<v Speaker 3>the ankle injury which turned into a bigger anchor injury

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<v Speaker 3>and then not able to come back from that series

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<v Speaker 3>of injuries. It's just sad fall off for him. But

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<v Speaker 3>back to chrys O.

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<v Speaker 2>Lobby.

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<v Speaker 3>Love the fact that he had one hundred and nineteen

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<v Speaker 3>targets that got him a lot of seasoning last year.

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<v Speaker 3>I love that part. There's really not a lot of anybody,

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<v Speaker 3>There's not other players who are going to siphon off

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of work from him.

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<v Speaker 1>He Yeah, Kamara was the next closest person in targets

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<v Speaker 1>last season with seventy seven, and then Juwan Johnson at

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<v Speaker 1>sixty five.

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<v Speaker 2>The closest receiver in terms of targets to Chris A.

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<v Speaker 1>Lave was Jarvis Landry with thirty nine targets on the

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<v Speaker 1>entire season.

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<v Speaker 3>They think about that Chris Alave had one hundred and

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<v Speaker 3>nineteen targets at wide receiver and the next closest receiver

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<v Speaker 3>had thirty nine.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, it's unbelievad that's ubelievable. That's an unbelievable set. It

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<v Speaker 2>really is thirty nine. I couldn't.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like I remember Charvis Landry doing like some

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<v Speaker 1>stuff last year. I couldn't believe it was thirty nine targets.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think he was hurt a little bit too.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's still insane.

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<v Speaker 3>So now let's let's try about the other competition that's

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<v Speaker 3>there for targets, especially at wide receiver. Michael Thomas maybe

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<v Speaker 3>maybe not. I mean, I don't even know if think

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<v Speaker 3>I could play anymore? Can he run? I don't know.

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<v Speaker 3>And then at one of my favorite sleepers, Rashid Shahed,

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<v Speaker 3>dude came onlast year and he is fast, a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of got best ball he'd be. He's a great late

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<v Speaker 3>round dark thrown best ball. Rashid chi Head I think

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<v Speaker 3>will be the number two wide receiver this year.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm with you.

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<v Speaker 1>If Michael Thomas isn't there, I think Rashichi he is

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<v Speaker 1>the number two.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I can't count on Michael Thomas. I'd I'd rather

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<v Speaker 3>have at the same ADP spot I would take for Shiheed.

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<v Speaker 2>Michael Thomas is still going fairly high.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't want to make this about a Michael Thomas show,

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<v Speaker 1>but he's still going like right after kind of a

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<v Speaker 1>Sean Babman in that tier, which seems really high. Guy

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<v Speaker 1>who's done nothing for the better part of three years.

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<v Speaker 3>I couldn't be more out on that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's ridiculous.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, let's talk about the quarterback situation. If you

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<v Speaker 3>take nothing away, nothing else away from this show, this podcast, listeners,

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<v Speaker 3>Derek Carr is not the upgrade you think he is.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's talk about this. Yes, he propelled DeVante Adams to

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<v Speaker 3>a top five Fantasy finish last year, so we know

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<v Speaker 3>he can do that, and that's would be your upside

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<v Speaker 3>for christ Labbe. But is he better than Andy Dalton.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's dig into the numbers. Tyler completion percentage Dalton seven

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<v Speaker 3>percent more accurate than Derek Carr. Advantage Dalton yards per attempt.

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<v Speaker 3>We care about this. How deep are you throwing downfield?

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<v Speaker 3>Dalton seven point six Car seven point zero advantage Dalton.

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<v Speaker 3>Theme here PFF passer grade. Andy Dalton was the sixth

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<v Speaker 3>highest graded PFF passer last year. Derek Carr twenty fifth.

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<v Speaker 3>Advantage Dalton.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not gonna let you get away with that one.

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<v Speaker 1>That just you're gonna tell me PFF passor we're to

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<v Speaker 1>say that Andy Dalton's a top six passer in the league.

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<v Speaker 2>Is no loo.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't have to defend PFF. You can decide if

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<v Speaker 3>yourself whether they're.

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<v Speaker 2>Look what that is.

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<v Speaker 3>In next gen stats, expected completion percentage. Car was sixth worst,

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<v Speaker 3>and all five of the quarterbacks under him were all

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<v Speaker 3>starters who got benched at some point during the season.

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<v Speaker 3>It's like Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinike and you know

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<v Speaker 3>the bottom five CAR. It was a disaster. Also advantage Dalton.

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<v Speaker 3>Now on deep passes, they're both bad cars. Adjusted completion

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<v Speaker 3>percentage on passes of more than twenty yards was just

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<v Speaker 3>thirty nine percent. Dalton was thirty one percent. I will

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<v Speaker 3>give the slight nod here to Carr, but they were

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<v Speaker 3>both bad on deep passes and troublingly, Dalton was better

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<v Speaker 3>than Carr and all those metrics, and Dalton had the

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<v Speaker 3>second shortest time to throw in the NFL among all

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<v Speaker 3>quarterbacks last year, and Dalton was still better than Carr.

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<v Speaker 3>So I'm here to tell you Derek Carr is no

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<v Speaker 3>upgrade to Andy Dalton.

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<v Speaker 2>It feels like he is.

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<v Speaker 3>He's paid like he is. The expectations are that he is.

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<v Speaker 3>The metrics don't prove it out.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we talked about on this show all the stats, well,

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<v Speaker 1>because we did a Derek Carr episode, you can go

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<v Speaker 1>back and listen to that, and we talked about how

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<v Speaker 1>he was bottom five and all those accuracy stats right

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<v Speaker 1>around the guys you mentioned, like Zach Wilson, Taylor, heine Key,

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<v Speaker 1>those kind of guys. He had career high interceptions. But

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<v Speaker 1>the thing that people are only going to care about

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<v Speaker 1>despite he was this bad last season. Devanta Adams was

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<v Speaker 1>wide receiver three last season despite all these numbers. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's just becomes an argument of whether he

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<v Speaker 1>might be a bad quarterback. Yes, I don't think he's

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<v Speaker 1>a good quarterback at all. I'm not Derek Carr as

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<v Speaker 1>like the players in terms of just drafting Derek Carr.

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<v Speaker 1>But can he be good enough just to get Chris

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<v Speaker 1>a lave all these these points, these yards, these touchdowns.

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<v Speaker 1>That's kind of I think the argument is what it

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<v Speaker 1>is right.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, and I'm not I'm not convinced he can happen.

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<v Speaker 3>I hope it happens. I have nothing against Chrys o lave.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not banking for where Chris a. Lobby is being

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<v Speaker 3>taken wide receiver twelve, which means he's going to be

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<v Speaker 3>a third round pick. I don't know that's putting a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of that's putting a lot on on Derek Carr.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's talk about some of the players going in the

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<v Speaker 3>same relative area as Chris o'lave.

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<v Speaker 2>I think note to note all these players too. They

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<v Speaker 2>all have good quarterbacks.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, like, now that you mention it, Chris Love

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<v Speaker 1>is the highest guy with like the like a noticeably

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<v Speaker 1>bad quarterback. I would say, yeah, which is kind of interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>All the other guys have good quarterbacks. So all right,

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<v Speaker 1>let's dive into it. Get Jalen Wattle, why deceiver eleven.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I'll take Waddle and the upside that that. I

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<v Speaker 3>think that's more well. They both have actually they both

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<v Speaker 3>have really good upside, and they both have the ability

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<v Speaker 3>to be explosive with deep plays. Yeah, I'm gonna take Waddle.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah I'll go Watle too on that feel a little

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<v Speaker 2>more proven. Davante Smith why deceiver thirteen.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think I'm gonna go Smith. He was shockingly

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<v Speaker 3>he was shockingly uh consistent last year. Now the fact

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<v Speaker 3>that he's the clear number two and sometimes number three

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<v Speaker 3>receiver on his own team depending on you know, you

0:11:04.040 --> 0:11:06.000
<v Speaker 3>know game plan and whether or not you've got to

0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:08.959
<v Speaker 3>They've got a healthy tight end to Dallas Goddard. That

0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:12.720
<v Speaker 3>does worry me a little bit. Yeah, I think I'm

0:11:12.720 --> 0:11:14.600
<v Speaker 3>gonna go Smith. I want part of the Eagles offense.

0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:17.320
<v Speaker 2>This one's a tough one for This is tough, isn't it.

0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:19.560
<v Speaker 1>I think I go a Lave just because I think

0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:22.360
<v Speaker 1>a Lave has a higher ceiling, just in terms of

0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:25.200
<v Speaker 1>a lot of these guys are kind of either wideceiver

0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:27.360
<v Speaker 1>twos or wideceiver ones with a lot of competition.

0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:29.120
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and Chris Lave like as we.

0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:33.080
<v Speaker 1>Mentioned, is the white one zero. Competition's fair even longly

0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:34.400
<v Speaker 1>you get better this season I think too.

0:11:34.280 --> 0:11:36.839
<v Speaker 3>Well, same things with the next player up, T Higgins.

0:11:36.440 --> 0:11:37.280
<v Speaker 2>Exactly, Higgs.

0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:40.080
<v Speaker 3>Do I want the number two wide receiver we know

0:11:40.240 --> 0:11:42.599
<v Speaker 3>is really good catch a pass from Joe Burrow? Or

0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:45.600
<v Speaker 3>do I want the number one from Derek Carr? Oh?

0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:48.880
<v Speaker 3>I think I'm gonna take I think i'd take Chi

0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:51.760
<v Speaker 3>t Higgins here, h and I take the consistency.

0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:54.439
<v Speaker 2>I really like T Higgins. I'm gonna go te Higgins. Yeah,

0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:57.160
<v Speaker 2>I'm with you on that. Who's next? Dk Metcalf? Why

0:11:57.240 --> 0:11:59.760
<v Speaker 2>is here? Fifteen? Wide deceiver one? Seemingly on his own team?

0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:02.000
<v Speaker 2>But a lot of competition for targets in that in

0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:02.560
<v Speaker 2>that offense.

0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:05.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and more so now after the draft.

0:12:06.679 --> 0:12:09.040
<v Speaker 2>It's tough. It's it's really tough a lobby. This is

0:12:09.080 --> 0:12:11.040
<v Speaker 2>why a lob is going twelve.

0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:12.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think I might go. I might go Chris

0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:15.800
<v Speaker 3>A Lave here. Okay, Yeah, I fink I've finally found

0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:17.600
<v Speaker 3>my breaking point where I'm gonna go Chris Olave.

0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.480
<v Speaker 1>All right, I'll go Chris Lave as well. Calvin Ridley

0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:21.520
<v Speaker 1>wide receiver sixteen.

0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.160
<v Speaker 3>I've got Ridley at twenty, so you know, and I

0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.520
<v Speaker 3>like Ridley, but you know, I'm optimistic, but I think

0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:32.200
<v Speaker 3>sixteen is hyper optimistic. You know, Christian Kirk was like

0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:35.680
<v Speaker 3>wide receiver twelve last year and maybe even better wide

0:12:35.679 --> 0:12:38.920
<v Speaker 3>receiver nine, something like that, And everybody assumes Christian Kirk's

0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:41.080
<v Speaker 3>just gonna like, like, don't drive his car off a

0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 3>cliff and just disappear, and it's suddenly the whole, the

0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:46.480
<v Speaker 3>whole passing offense is gonna go to Calvin Ridley. Yeah,

0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:47.800
<v Speaker 3>I don't think that's a fair assumption.

0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:49.440
<v Speaker 2>Who do you think is a higher upside?

0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:51.920
<v Speaker 1>Though, Let's say, let's say let's just play this game,

0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:52.600
<v Speaker 1>hypothetical game.

0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:53.800
<v Speaker 2>We don't wish injuries upon anyone.

0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:57.040
<v Speaker 1>Let's say Chris Christian Kirk goes down Week three and

0:12:57.160 --> 0:12:58.120
<v Speaker 1>he's out for the year.

0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:00.680
<v Speaker 3>Well it's Calvin Then I'd probably Calvin Ridley.

0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:02.920
<v Speaker 1>You think Calvin Ridley has a higher upside than Chris

0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:04.840
<v Speaker 1>A Lave? Who do you think guys are a higher upside?

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:07.200
<v Speaker 1>Just overall? Even with Christian Kirk, there.

0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:12.400
<v Speaker 3>A Lave's got freaky upside. If everything breaks just right, Yeah,

0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:14.560
<v Speaker 3>he's got he could, he could find himself in the

0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:19.320
<v Speaker 3>top six. He could, Yeah, just because the opportunity sheer talent, Yeah, opportunity,

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:21.800
<v Speaker 3>percentage of passes coming his way stuff like that.

0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:25.600
<v Speaker 2>I really really like Calvin Ridley, but I think there's.

0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:27.760
<v Speaker 3>No discount built into an ADP of sixteen.

0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:31.360
<v Speaker 1>He's he's going like a round after a lave too,

0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:32.760
<v Speaker 1>even though they only like four receivers.

0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:35.320
<v Speaker 2>A part is a big tear drop after, like after

0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:37.800
<v Speaker 2>a lave and waddle. It kind of feels like.

0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:41.120
<v Speaker 1>A tear drop after like then we got Smith Higgins,

0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.480
<v Speaker 1>I'd say, after Higgins, and then it gets to Metcalfien.

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:45.000
<v Speaker 2>Really it's like a tear drop kind of thing. But

0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:47.400
<v Speaker 2>I'll go to Lave over Ridley just because, like you said,

0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:48.000
<v Speaker 2>the upside.

0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:50.040
<v Speaker 1>And I think I think Derek Carr might be a

0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:52.679
<v Speaker 1>little better than you think, just because if I mean, yes,

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:54.040
<v Speaker 1>he had a bad season last year, but I think

0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:54.920
<v Speaker 1>he can play better than that.

0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:57.920
<v Speaker 2>We've seen him play better than two.

0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:00.560
<v Speaker 3>So granted he was in a bad spot on a

0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 3>bad offense with very little help a terrible offensive line,

0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:06.280
<v Speaker 3>but honestly, he had better receiver Derek Carr better receivers

0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 3>last year. I agree, Darren Waller and Hunter renfro and

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.880
<v Speaker 3>Devonte Adams, and you know there was he had more

0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:14.839
<v Speaker 3>of a nice right.

0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:16.079
<v Speaker 2>You know that.

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:20.600
<v Speaker 3>There's no guarantee for me on him whatsoever. Yeah, all right,

0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:25.720
<v Speaker 3>this has been an overly long Fantasy Football Weekly micro edition.

0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 3>Thank you for getting to the end of it. Encourage

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<v Speaker 2>Bye bye.

0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:02.560
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