WEBVTT - What will happen when we reach the Singularity? 0:00:01.120 --> 0:00:04.280 Welcome to you stuff you should know from house stuff 0:00:04.280 --> 0:00:12.719 Works dot com. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. I'm 0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:15.440 Josh Clark. With me is always this Charles W. Chuck 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:22.079 Bryant that makes this stuff. You should the podcast. Scottish 0:00:22.840 --> 0:00:26.920 no O, that was that was nothing. It's this weirdness, 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:31.800 Josh ish Chuck. I love November. You mean November you 0:00:31.920 --> 0:00:35.680 know idea? All right, Josh, as you know, because of 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:39.720 my semi virginal fresh face here, I have decided to 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:42.279 get on the November train for people that don't know 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:45.000 that is for men and I guess women. If you 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:48.880 can grow mustache, more power to you. Uh, to raise 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:52.599 money and awareness for prostate cancer. Yeah. So I've been 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:54.600 asked to do this a bunch and I've never done it. Well, 0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:58.120 I'm glad you're finally doing it. Tell us all about it, man, Well, uh, 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:00.240 you know, I signed up. I've gotten a little Movember 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:02.520 page and then you go to that little page and 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:05.759 you can donate money and for my team of one 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:08.720 and unless you cut in the mustache as a thing, 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.560 and then that's two of us. Okay, So hopefully soon 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:15.520 that'll be happening, and uh, it would be cool, you know, 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:17.319 I'm gonna grow it back in anyway, so you might 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:19.440 as well raise a little money along the way. You 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:21.679 shouldn't tell people are gonna grow it anyway or they'll 0:01:21.720 --> 0:01:24.280 contribute more money. No, no, no, I'm growing the goatee, 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:27.880 but I will only grow the mustache for November. So 0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:31.720 how do people contribute to this effort? Josh? Go to 0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:36.240 mo bro dot c o slash Charles Bryant and that 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:38.959 is my page. Or just go to the November website. 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:41.480 They've got a little handy search bar there. Type in 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:44.960 Charles Bryant. There's one other Charles Bryant, but he is 0:01:45.000 --> 0:01:47.760 not the one with a picture of me. Oh that's good. 0:01:48.000 --> 0:01:50.400 So when it lists the two dudes and one of 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:54.520 them that clearly has a photo of my freshly shaven face, 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:58.160 not super freshly shaven like that morning right via webcam, 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.280 you look like a hostage of some stuff too. So 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:05.840 go to mobro dot ceo slash Charles Bryant, donate help 0:02:06.160 --> 0:02:09.760 support prostate cancer research and I'll be updating with photos. 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:11.800 And if you guys want to chime in on what 0:02:11.880 --> 0:02:14.639 kind of stash I should grow, I'll try my best. Okay, 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:18.840 I'm kind of limited to like standard crumb catcher and 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:23.320 pencil thin. What about walrus? I can't it just doesn't 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:25.800 get that big. I can't do the Raleigh fingers, you know, 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:29.280 So I have my limits. Have you tried wax mustache wax? 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:33.360 Maybe I will enough, So go to mo bro dot 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:37.519 CEO slash Charles Bryant. That's right, and you can donate 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:42.120 to this. Yeah, much appreciated. November on with the show. Uh, 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:44.960 you got a good setup for today. I'd love to 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:49.680 hear it. Let's get to Uh. Have you ever sorry, Chuck, 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:53.359 have you ever heard of a luddite? I've been called 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:56.760 a luddite? Okay, somebody who's just not sure of technology. Yeah, 0:02:56.800 --> 0:02:59.720 I'm not afraid. You're very technologically savvy, you know stuff. 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:03.040 You're not afraid of it. Nope. Um, but whoever's calling 0:03:03.040 --> 0:03:05.920 you that, it's actually they're kind of incorrect. That's a misconception. 0:03:06.000 --> 0:03:09.200 A lot eyes were not ever afraid of technology. I 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:11.360 wish I would have known that at the time, because 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:13.480 you could have been like, you're it's wrong and stupid 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:15.800 in every single way. Actually, it was our buddy Scott 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:17.560 to Polido, So I'll just throw it back in his face. 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:20.280 I'll tell them too. I'll I'll stand next to him 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:23.200 be like yeah, um no, a lot ied is is. 0:03:23.600 --> 0:03:29.079 Originally they were a group of UM protesters labor protesters 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:33.320 from that protested between eighteen eleven and eighteen sixteen, and 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:37.840 they wanted UM fair wages, they wanted better treatment in 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:42.320 their in their workplaces, and no iPhones. And they they 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:48.760 were known to break machines like manufacturing machines. Yeah, oh yeah. 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.960 They had sledge hammers that were ironically made by in 0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:54.760 in one case, I think in Manchester, UM. They were 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:57.720 made by the same blacksmith who had made these knitting 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:01.080 machines that they used the sledge hammers to break. His 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:04.400 name was Enoch, and they say that Enoch would make 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:08.160 these things and Enoch would break these things. Anyway, they 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:11.000 were known for smashing machines, which at the time was 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:14.760 like high technology eighteen eleven, like a knitting machine, like 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:19.839 that's mind bogglingly technological. And so they got this reputation 0:04:19.920 --> 0:04:22.160 for being afraid of this technology. They were afraid it 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:24.480 was going to take their jobs. That's not true. I 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:27.240 mean they were to an extent, but what they were 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:30.839 directing their anger in their ire when they were smashing 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:33.520 these machines. Was not the machine or the technology of 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:35.799 the people who invented them, or what the machines represented, 0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:38.960 but these mill owners who were miss using these machines, 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:41.760 who are using these machines to force people out of jobs, 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:44.320 who were using unskilled people who had no idea what 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:47.760 they were doing, and getting hurt and killed using these machines. 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:51.160 So what the lot It's really wanted was fair labor practices, 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:57.200 and they wanted to control these machines. Yes, that's the 0:04:57.320 --> 0:05:01.120 key to lotitis. M is machine means are great as 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:03.440 long as we're in control of them and we're smart 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:07.200 about what we're doing, and they don't come to replace 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:10.240 us or run our lives. So today a lot I 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:14.880 would probably be they would probably react fairly close to 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:18.040 the modern conception of the term ltite, because it's gotten 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:22.920 so far out of hand that we're actually now talking 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:26.440 today about something called the singularity, which is the point 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:31.599 where the machines really do take over, not in the 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:36.359 very ubiquitous way that they already have today, like they're everywhere, 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:38.240 not that you didn't know that already, but I mean 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:40.719 the control things that we don't fully understand, like the 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:45.080 cyber war. We were talking about how like the infrastructure 0:05:45.120 --> 0:05:48.240 is run on windows, and like valves and pipes and 0:05:48.680 --> 0:05:52.000 water treatment systems and everything is operated by computer. Right, 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:59.520 So what happens if the computer suddenly becomes aware and 0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:02.720 it's in control of these things and decides that it 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:06.040 doesn't really like the humans? It sounds extremely science fiction. E. 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:08.360 There was no way to carry out this podcast without 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:12.800 that sentence being spoken. Sure, but it's the people who 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:16.080 are talking about this, who are predicting this are very smart, 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:20.000 credible people. And what we're talking about then, is the 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:25.440 singularity that's right, the point where technological Yes, specifically, yeah, 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:29.800 because what other singularities are they? Well? I think you know, 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:32.960 we mentioned there was a singularity, which is something entirely different, 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:35.920 and I think it's probably just to distinguish stuff like that. Okay, 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:37.880 I don't know if there are other types of singularity. 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:42.080 So so it's a singularity versus the singularity. So maybe 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:47.000 these singularities the point of no return, I guess. So okay, Um, 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:49.440 so what's your question? What did you ask me? Is 0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:52.960 this bad or good? No? But I do have a 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:56.080 question for you, Um, do you think it will happen? No? 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:58.520 I don't. I don't think, and this might be my 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:02.479 narrow field of view at this point in my life, 0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:07.800 but I think that mankind will make sure that doesn't happen. 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:11.320 Oh man, I've got a counter argument for you from 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:13.920 Werner Vinche himself. Oh no, I've seen the counter arguments, 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:18.440 but that still doesn't change my mind. So you don't 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:20.559 think that in the quest to be the top dog, 0:07:20.680 --> 0:07:25.240 to consolidate power, to consolidate world domination, some government out 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:27.720 there will be like, well, yes, we agree with you 0:07:27.800 --> 0:07:29.960 at the u N that, yes, we have to prevent 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:32.760 this from happening, but our scientists back at home are 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:34.920 actually working on this one thing that's probably going to 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:37.760 make it happen, and we're going to be in charge. Yeah. 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:41.640 I think that they would create fail safe um, and 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:43.440 I think even if they didn't, it wouldn't be so 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:46.480 widespread that it would take over humanity. Counter argument two 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:51.000 to that if we create fail safe using our brains, 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:55.480 and the singularity is by definition the basically the birth 0:07:55.640 --> 0:08:02.240 the emergence of an artificial intelligence. Yes that's smarter than us, 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:06.400 a superhuman artificial intelligence. That's basically what the singularity represents, 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:10.440 the creation of wouldn't that intelligence be able to be like, Oh, 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:12.480 that's very funny that you came up with. These fail 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:15.440 states are so tough for me to get around. I 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:17.800 think what my problem is with stuff like this is 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:21.600 the assumption that if computers were made smarter than people, 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:25.320 that they would try and destroy us all and reign supreme. 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:28.520 That's my problem with this all is it's a very 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:32.320 large leap to go from Hey, this computer can fix 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:37.680 itself and maybe learn too. Okay, now it decides it 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:39.960 hates us all and wants to kill us all. Okay, 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:42.640 So I I had an idea about this. I watched 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:44.719 the videos. You see the ray curs while video that's 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:47.120 as your Future is ra curs while he's talking about 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:50.440 they kept the interviewer kept asking him like, what scares 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:53.240 you about the singularity? What's the downside of the singularity? 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:55.760 And he wouldn't fall for it. It's like, I'm an optimist, 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:58.720 but you know, um, I I understand that there are 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:01.280 going to be downsides or whatever. But if you look 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:06.920 at the twentieth century, are our advances in technology had 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:09.040 it was a double edged sword, like we use that 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:11.520 technology to kill millions and millions of people. In the 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:15.560 twentieth century wars. But we also use that technology to 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:20.400 um advance the lifespan by like twice as twice as 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:22.800 long as it was before. So it's a double edged sword. 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:25.200 And I think that's kind of a glib argument because 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:28.240 I feel like he's leaving on a really important fact, 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:31.200 and that is that in the twentieth century, all of 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:35.280 that technology, every single iota of it, good and bad, 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:39.400 was deployed by humans. After the Singularity happens, we have 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:44.200 another non human actor with motivations that we can't even 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:50.040 conceive of at this point, right deploying technology program motivation. See, 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:52.200 that's the argument. But no, that's that's the thing. Right now, 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:55.720 our stuff is constrained by his programs. After it hits 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:58.480 AI true AI. I think AI plus plus is what 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:02.079 it's called. It's no longer strained by its programming. It's 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:05.960 out of our control, literally, And that's the point that 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:08.920 I don't think we will reach. Okay, well then yeah, 0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:11.520 I agree with you. But if we do reach that point, 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:13.400 then I do fear that we have computers that are 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:16.800 thinking the same way that eugenicists think, except they don't 0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:19.480 have that empathy or compassion thing that stays in the 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:22.400 eugenicist's hand or they do. They're trying to build empathy. 0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:26.720 So I don't know. Okay, we totally jumped to the 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:28.360 end of this. Didn't were like, what are we even 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:31.120 talking about? So you believe that they're going to destroy 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:34.920 humanity at one point? I believe we need ned Lud, 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:38.600 the fictitious leader of the Luddites, more than ever right now, 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:41.040 because I think that there's a lot of very smart 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:45.880 people moving in a very um fast pace in a 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:48.640 direction that I don't think everybody is aware we're going, 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:51.520 and there hasn't been a general discussion whether that's the 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:54.680 best thing to do or how to do it. What 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:58.120 are the fail says? Is anyone even talking about that? Like? 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:00.200 What are they? How do we get them in place? 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:03.319 Because I think there should be an impedence to creating 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:09.080 unfettered artificial intelligence. Yeah, well here we go. Then, Boy, 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:10.800 that was a rant. You like started yelling at me. 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:12.920 Oh no, I'm not upset with you at all. I 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:14.880 hope it didn't come off like that. That's right, I 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:17.920 like you. Um So, Werner Venge is one of the 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:20.600 guys that thinks it is going to happen he's a 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:24.280 professor of math at the San Diego State University, go 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:28.679 aztex And Um, he thinks he wrote an essay called 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:32.800 the Coming Technological Singularity, how to Survive in the post 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:37.160 human Era? Um, and he thinks there are four ways 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:40.080 which this could happen. And he also points out that 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:45.840 he thinks it will happen before which I don't think 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:49.319 that will happen. And that's coming up. Yeah, it's like 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:51.360 right around the corner. I think Chris Walls is the 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:56.040 same thing he said, is the one he's been sighting. Well, 0:11:56.080 --> 0:12:01.800 we'll see. Um. Number One, scientists could develop advancements in AI. 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:05.880 It's pretty easy to understand. Number Two, computer networks might 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:10.240 become self aware somehow. That's pretty vague. Well, he was 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:13.200 saying in the paper. That's Strickland's interpretation. He's saying in 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:17.760 his paper like, Um, it'll probably be a total surprise 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:20.079 to the people who are working on this algorithm to 0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:24.160 make a search engine better or something, and they just 0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:26.640 tweak it just slightly in such a way that all 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:29.079 of a sudden, the computer system wakes up and you 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:32.800 just created senions accidentally in a in a computer network, 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:37.600 and now it's self aware. And he's saying that's that's 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:42.520 how that could happen accidentally. Basically, um So number three 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:48.920 is uh trans humanism. Basically computer human interface becomes so 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:52.800 advanced that there's sort of it blurs the line between 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:56.840 humans and robots, right, which is probably the best case 0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.959 scenario for us if the technological singularity is gonna happen, 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:03.720 because we'll be on board. Yeah, well unless the brain 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:07.000 part is in the robot, you know what I'm saying. Yeah, 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:09.319 and they're just operating the body of the human form. 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:12.680 But if we're indistinguishable from a robot and the human, like, 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:17.240 if we merged so so much, then what benefits one? Yeah? 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:19.560 But what is it? Centennial? Man? By centennial man? I 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:23.760 think uh or historious. Remember when we did our d 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:25.520 g A speech a couple of years ago, he was 0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:28.160 big news. And then the Olympics he was big news 0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:30.920 because did you see him run? Yeah? Man, I had 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:33.160 not seen him run before and it is something to see. 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:35.920 It's really cool, it's pretty awesome. Yeah. I love the 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:37.840 people that were like, you know, it gives him an 0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:41.040 advantage because blah blah blah and in the South Africa 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:43.240 came in dead last and then well, no, I mean, 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:44.920 I don't think anyone expect him to win, but I 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:47.920 just love the snarky counter argument was then cut off 0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:50.880 your legs below the knees if it's such an advantage. Yeah, 0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:53.040 you want to win, go cut off your legs. Yeah, 0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:55.760 I forgot what we had mentioned him and the trainman something. Yeah, 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:57.800 and that's before he was like really big news as 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:00.800 far as the Olympics goes. And the number for biological 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:08.480 science advancements allow us to engineer human intelligence to physically engineering, right, 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:12.600 and the first three involved computers, like we have to this, 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:17.600 this singularity would be reached by basically advancements in computing. 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.360 The last one is extrictly like coming up with this 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:25.000 super vitamin that just makes our intelligence superhuman. The point 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:28.600 is is that at through one of these four proposed ways, 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:34.440 at some point Verna Vince is ray Kerswell, says Hans 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:41.800 Morevik says maybe um well, he says um that computers 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:45.840 will be capable of processing power equal to the human brain, 0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:49.800 but not necessarily a which is an essential part of this, 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.880 like we have to understand how to create the human 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:56.960 brain under certain circumstances um for this to reach. But 0:14:57.160 --> 0:15:00.280 at some point all of these things are saying, we're 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:02.560 we're going to have on this planet something that doesn't 0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:08.160 exist right now, and that is a superhuman intelligence. Whether 0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:11.360 it's an artificial intelligence as in the first three or 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.920 superhuman human intelligence. Uh, that never means to be seen. 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:18.960 But the point is is once that happens, all of 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:21.920 a sudden, there's basically what amounts to a new species 0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.600 that just boop popped up on the map and it's 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:27.440 going to take off like a rocket robo humans. Yeah, 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:29.160 and it takes off like a rocket because it's got 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:33.200 a rocket built into its bad. Um. All of this 0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:37.560 is based sort of on Moore's law, which is, Um, 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:39.000 I guess we can go ahead and talk about more. 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:43.480 Gordon Moore, great name, Gordon Moore, that's a great like 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:46.560 electronics engineer name. Yeah, I guess you're right. Uh. In 0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:50.640 the mid sixties, he's a semiconductor engineer, and he proposed 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:54.200 what UM, we call Moore's law now and that's basically 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:56.880 what he was noticing at the time was or I 0:15:56.880 --> 0:15:59.440 guess we should just say Moore's laws that the idea 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:03.360 that techno alogy doubles every eighteen months. That's what they 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:06.240 settled on it basically in twelve to twenty four months, 0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:08.520 but I think he originally said like eighteen months. So yeah, 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:10.560 they split the difference and said eighteen months. Yeah. I 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:12.720 think more of that has said it like it was 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.160 twenty four and then eighteen and he feels like it's 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.680 more like twelve now. But it's progressing like exponentially, I guess, 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:22.239 is the point. Yeah. So anyway, back in the sixties, 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:26.280 he noticed that, um, he was building semiconductors and he said, 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:30.200 you know what, the components and the prices are falling. Uh. 0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:33.880 But then he noticed, instead of just selling stuff for 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:37.120 half the price, why don't we just roll that back 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:41.560 into making smaller transistors and selling the same high price. Yeah, 0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:43.880 but just getting more bang for your buck. Yeah. Can 0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:48.640 you imagine if that had never happened, Like, what if 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:51.600 that what if the cycle became Now let's just you know, 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:55.480 I don't know, I mean, like, what kind of differences 0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:59.160 would that have. We'd have super cheap, slow technology if 0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:03.080 everybody just kind of beyond the pot or something like that, 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.399 you know, real laid back like, but more like I 0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:09.960 think part of being a computer scientist, someone else would 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:12.400 have come along and like, guys, why don't we trying 0:17:12.400 --> 0:17:16.000 to advance? You doing this wrong? UM? Strickling points out 0:17:16.040 --> 0:17:18.920 to that UM Moore's law is a self fulfilling prophecy 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:23.199 because of that, because that mentality that you just you 0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:26.919 just mentioned was present, like, rather than to sell it 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:29.960 to have price, let's put twice as much into it. Right. 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:35.280 And so since that's the drive of the transistor, is 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.040 it the transistor industry that he was in, uh, yeah, 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:45.400 or the microprocessor industry? Um that it's a self fulfilling prophecy. 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:47.840 It's a self fulfilling law because that drive is there 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:51.120 to basically meet that deadline. They keep trying to pack 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:54.040 more and more in so that they can satisfy More's law. 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:57.840 True and it um depending on who you ask, Like 0:17:57.880 --> 0:18:01.040 this article is already at a date UM in February 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:03.840 of this year of two thousand twelve. Is that where 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:07.119 we are? Um? A team of Austrian physicists created a 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:13.960 functioning single atom transistor, really single atom, fully controllable. That's 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:17.000 point one nanometers and the human here's a hundred and 0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:21.119 eighty thousand nanimeters. And in this article even why I 0:18:21.119 --> 0:18:26.760 think Strickland was talking about, uh, Intel has transistors nimes wide, 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:28.600 like they're trying to get better. This one is one 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:31.760 atom wide and it's not like on the market or 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:34.480 anything close like that. But it is fully functioning and 0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:38.000 fully controllable um. And that is faster than Moore's law 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:41.400 that was supposed to hit us in and you can't 0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:44.120 get any smaller, like that's as small as it gets, 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:46.639 and we've already reached it, right, And the problem is is, 0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:49.960 like they're what they're running up against is the things 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:55.600 like quantum tunneling on the quantum world um. The when 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:58.760 you have an electron and you're you're using like very 0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:03.639 thin material to that right in a transistor, yeah, or 0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:06.760 a capacitor, it does a little magic act. That's what's important. 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:09.760 The transistor, well, yeah, it just suddenly is on one 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:12.399 side of this wall that you're using to guide it, 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:15.280 and then it's just side on the other and basically 0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:17.640 makes it outside of your transistor like wait, come back. 0:19:18.000 --> 0:19:20.120 But it didn't like bore a hole through it. No, 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:24.639 it just went through it like it wasn't there exactly. 0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:27.679 And that's called quantum tunneling, which is kind of a 0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:29.840 problem when you get on this nano scale because the 0:19:29.840 --> 0:19:32.800 classical mechanics kind of goes out the window and you 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.719 run into quantum mechanics that has weird stuff like that 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:40.240 going on. But ironically, that whole size problem that you're 0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:44.320 running into, that that um runs into quantum problems, it 0:19:44.400 --> 0:19:47.880 may actually be saved by the quantum world through quantum 0:19:47.880 --> 0:19:52.040 computing Moore's law. I guess that technological progress because we're 0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:55.520 running into that size problem. But with the quantum computing 0:19:55.920 --> 0:20:01.480 um you basically it uses quantum states, like how you 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:03.960 can have superpositions a bunch of different states at once 0:20:04.400 --> 0:20:07.800 to carry out parallel processes. To where traditional computers carrying 0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:10.560 out one process, a quantum computer could carry out a 0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:15.720 million processes, which makes that computer exponentially faster than anything 0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:20.280 available today, which could be what shoots us into this 0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:25.960 artificial intelligence if quantum computers become viable and widespread. Well, 0:20:25.960 --> 0:20:33.040 this weather headed um the the one atom transistor. Part 0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:34.480 of the problem with that one is it's got to 0:20:34.520 --> 0:20:40.600 be um. It's only operable at negative three, which is 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:44.240 like a liquid nitrogen gold. But they're working on it 0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:47.159 where that's where that quantum livitation comes from. It's like 0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:50.840 really really cold, really yeah, that's the only time it works, 0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:53.880 but it works interesting, Yeah, Matt, Matt told me about 0:20:53.920 --> 0:20:57.280 that one. Um. So Josh, let's say you have you're 0:20:57.320 --> 0:21:00.080 shooting for true AI. You built yourself a rope, but 0:21:01.520 --> 0:21:05.520 your robots great cleans up seems to solve problems. It's 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:11.520 like Richie Ritch's butler might even be learning who knows, um, 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:13.680 and you want to test it out to see where 0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:16.560 you're at. I know, if you're getting at what would 0:21:16.600 --> 0:21:19.399 you do? I would give that thing a Turing test? 0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:23.359 What a Turing test? T o U r I n g. No, 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:27.800 t u r i n g. Named after the father 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:34.320 of computing, the chemically castrated homosexual. Excuse me, yes, did 0:21:34.320 --> 0:21:38.320 you know this? Alright? Alan Turing is a British early 0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:41.960 proponent of robot science, right, and he was a chemist 0:21:42.320 --> 0:21:46.760 what chemically castrated for being a homosexual? Okay? So um? 0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:50.560 During World War Two he was this like ace codebreaker 0:21:50.840 --> 0:21:55.480 for the British government and he actually cracked the Nazi code. Um. 0:21:55.560 --> 0:21:58.720 And after the war, Uh, they were like, hey, thanks 0:21:58.760 --> 0:22:00.680 a lot for that, old chat, thanks helping us win 0:22:00.720 --> 0:22:04.080 the war. By the way. Um, as you know, homosexuality 0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:06.240 is outlawed here and will be until Oh I don't 0:22:06.280 --> 0:22:10.120 know nineteen fifties, Um, and uh so we're going to 0:22:10.160 --> 0:22:14.320 convict you of homosexual accent chemically castrate you as thanks. Wow, 0:22:14.440 --> 0:22:20.080 yeah that all happen. Yes, but okay, so despite this, Um, 0:22:20.119 --> 0:22:22.119 he still comes up with this thing called a Turing 0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:25.760 test named after him, UM. And it involves a blind judge, 0:22:26.280 --> 0:22:28.399 not an actually blind judge, but like a judge. He 0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:31.359 doesn't know who they're talking to, and the judge is 0:22:31.359 --> 0:22:33.880 asking the same questions of a person and a computer. 0:22:34.480 --> 0:22:37.480 It's like Blade Runner, I guess. Remember at the beginning 0:22:37.520 --> 0:22:42.760 of Blade Runner, he's asking the questions to Leon, and 0:22:43.000 --> 0:22:45.440 it's not quite a Turing test because he can see Leon, 0:22:45.960 --> 0:22:48.080 but he's basically trying to sess out of Leon is 0:22:48.119 --> 0:22:51.840 a replicant, and so he's asking him like questions. It's 0:22:51.840 --> 0:22:53.840 sort of they all kind of touch on, like empathy. 0:22:53.880 --> 0:22:56.200 It seems like like you see a turtle in the road. 0:22:56.440 --> 0:22:58.640 Do you do you it's on its back? Do you 0:22:58.720 --> 0:23:01.240 flip it back over? Or do you smash it? Or 0:23:01.280 --> 0:23:04.560 like what do you do? What does Leon say? I 0:23:04.560 --> 0:23:06.960 don't remember, huh. I think he asked him about his 0:23:07.000 --> 0:23:08.720 apartment and he gets annoyed and he kills the guy 0:23:09.280 --> 0:23:14.480 that what happens? Man? Then too long that says, yeah, 0:23:14.520 --> 0:23:17.080 I think Leon kills him. Anyway, the during test, if 0:23:17.080 --> 0:23:19.159