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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting Pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. This meet Joey p joe Pisapia and this

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Speaker 1: is BP NFL the Christmas Special. That's right. Forget Charlie

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Speaker 1: Brown and Rudolph and all that other crap. It's all

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Speaker 1: about me. It's got Bogman talking football on Christmas Day

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Speaker 1: and on Thursday night football to a little of everything

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Speaker 1: here for you. That's what we give you on the

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Speaker 1: betting Pros and Bogs. Your Steelers are playing on Christmas,

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Speaker 1: which has gotta be weird for you. I mean, does

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Speaker 1: it ruin the entire holiday the rest of the day

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Speaker 1: if the Steelers look terrible?

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Speaker 2: I mean not for me, but for my whole family. Yes,

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Speaker 2: it will so because of my attitude for the rest

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Speaker 2: of the day. No, I mean I don't. I don't

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Speaker 2: let it like kill my day. I but I do

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Speaker 2: despise the Christmas games. I hate it. I too. Just

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Speaker 2: give me a day, Just let me have especially a Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: Just give me Wednesday with my family. Don't you know,

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Speaker 2: Cram the Star.

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Speaker 1: Why they have to force it when they have Thursday game.

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Speaker 1: It used to be an NBA holiday, Yeah know, it

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Speaker 1: was always an NBA on Christmas Day. Now it's like,

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Speaker 1: now we gotta have twelve nute games.

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Speaker 2: I got well for the first time in my life, Joe.

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Speaker 2: I had the Steelers and Longhorns playing at the same time.

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Speaker 2: And if you're new here, my dad's alside of family

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Speaker 2: from Pittsburgh. I was born in Texas, so I have

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Speaker 2: weird allegiances here.

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Speaker 1: But well, at least you got one win in there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Longhorns the Steelers played at the same time,

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Speaker 2: and then the d Back trade for Josh Naylor in

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Speaker 2: the middle of that. And I've lived in Arizona for

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Speaker 2: a long time, so yeah, my head was about to explode.

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Speaker 2: But we're calm, We're still alive. We're here, We're going

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Speaker 2: all right.

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Speaker 1: Well, let's kick off here. Pittsburgh Steelers at home ten

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Speaker 1: and five taking on the Kansasity Chiefs fourteen and one

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Speaker 1: minus two and a half of the Chiefs feels right,

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Speaker 1: no matter what. The Chiefs games are typically a little closer.

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Speaker 1: Forty three is the total. If anything, I might be

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Speaker 1: shading the under on this one plus one twenty at

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Speaker 1: home for the Steelers. Look, here's the thing, Fox, It's

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Speaker 1: like with Pickens. They're one offense without Pickens there another,

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Speaker 1: and we're recording this on Monday because we're trying to

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Speaker 1: get out here for the holiday, get a couple of

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Speaker 1: days off, so I'm off clarity on it yet. My

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Speaker 1: guess is that he plays. But even so, I just

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Speaker 1: feel like with Hollywood brown back in the way that

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Speaker 1: offense was running a little bit, I like the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: with the two and a half. Where are you at

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Speaker 1: with this game? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I mean I'm going to take the home team on

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Speaker 2: short rest, So I don't really love this game either way.

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Speaker 2: On the line, I don't like either side of it.

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Speaker 2: To be honest with you, I would stick to props

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Speaker 2: that I have in this one and not really bet

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Speaker 2: this game.

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Speaker 1: All right, Speaking of props, the one thing I mentioned

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Speaker 1: to Ericson about this game and the look ahead was,

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Speaker 1: you know, I feel like it's gonna be a lot

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Speaker 1: of nause Harris running up against a brick wall, just

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Speaker 1: like we watched a bunch of times against the Baltimore Ravens.

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Speaker 1: It feels like you kind of think the same thing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Not only is Nase not running well and running

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Speaker 2: into a brick wall at Kansas City is a tough

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Speaker 2: ask anyway, But the Steelers are moving to Jalen Warren.

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Speaker 2: Over the last three weeks, it's been way more Jalen Warren.

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Speaker 2: We saw fifty two to forty eight in week fourteen.

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Speaker 2: Then we had fifty three to thirty three percent in

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Speaker 2: terms of snap percentages of these guys being on the field.

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Speaker 2: And this was the fumble week Week fifteen for Nase,

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Speaker 2: the one where he fumbled against the Eagles and then

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Speaker 2: the Steelers just never got the ball back right. And

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Speaker 2: then this week Week sixteen, the Steelers went with Warren

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Speaker 2: at sixty seven percent of snaps and Nase down to

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Speaker 2: twenty eight percent. So it's just been way more Jalen

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Speaker 2: Warren anyway. Moving forward here, the Chiefs a third against

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Speaker 2: the run, So I just for me, I think it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be Jalen. So let's go with the under. This

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Speaker 2: has already fallen three yards. It was forty six and

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Speaker 2: a half last night when I looked at it. It's

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Speaker 2: forty three and a half today on Monday, So I

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Speaker 2: expect this to slide a little bit. So if you

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Speaker 2: like this number and you want to fade Nase, I

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Speaker 2: would say get on it pretty early here, all right.

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Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy had a good showing last weekend, so can

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Speaker 1: he do it for a second week in a row?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know what, We're doing three picks per game here.

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Speaker 2: Two of mine are going to be on Xavier Worthy here,

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Speaker 2: and okay, we're gonna go with the over forty six

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Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards and over four and a

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Speaker 2: half receptions receiving yards. Prop I saw in fanduels minus

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Speaker 2: one fourteen. It's plus one twenty two for the over

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Speaker 2: on the receptions, if you like that more. But three

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Speaker 2: weeks in a row, snap percentage has been over eighty percent,

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Speaker 2: and no other Kansas city wide receiver has been over

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Speaker 2: fifty six percent in terms of snap percentage in that time.

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Speaker 2: He's had eleven targets two weeks in a row. Here

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Speaker 2: are having issues in the secondary right now. Joey Porter

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Speaker 2: Junior banged up, don'te Jackson didn't play last week. Deshaun

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Speaker 2: Elliott also missed last week. So there's just a lot

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Speaker 2: of problems with the Steelers secondary. Worthy is the guy

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Speaker 2: that's on the field more than any other white out,

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Speaker 2: so I like him to go over both these all.

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Speaker 1: Right, two overs there for Worthy, and you mentioned Warren.

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Speaker 1: The pivot there a pretty good number GETT plus three

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Speaker 1: thirty on the touchdown, So you feel pretty confident in

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Speaker 1: that one too. That feels about right to me.

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Speaker 2: Also, Yeah, I don't know if I feel confident in it,

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Speaker 2: but I love.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, considering the pivot to the back.

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Speaker 2: Plus three thirty, I think he'll have to break it

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Speaker 2: because if they go to the near the goal line,

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Speaker 2: that's where Naji's gonna live is near the goal line.

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Speaker 2: They have you know, passed down there as well. But

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Speaker 2: I think if he can break one, he can get

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Speaker 2: this in the three to one I really like.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the afternoon game here,

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Speaker 1: the second one. You've got to four thirty Baltimore Houston

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Speaker 1: Houston nine and six Baltimore ten and five. Tank Dell

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Speaker 1: will be gone unfortunately, a terrible injury for him. We

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Speaker 1: wish him all the best. I mentioned that on Monday

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Speaker 1: show as well. But plus three and a half here

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Speaker 1: at home Houston Texans taking on the Ravens. Ravens look

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Speaker 1: like they are starting to roll now. Bye week, confidence

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Speaker 1: builder game, big game against Pittsburgh. The Lamar is playing

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Speaker 1: out of his mind right now. Henry looked great in

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Speaker 1: that last game. Two forty seven is the total plus

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Speaker 1: one seventy. On the Houston side. It feels like whenever

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Speaker 1: Houston is matched with somebody that's better than them, they

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Speaker 1: fall short. And I think that's where I'm at here.

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Speaker 1: I think this should be four and a half personally

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Speaker 1: for Baltimore. So I'm on Baltimore here once again. I

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Speaker 1: hate being so chalky, especially on Christmas, but maybe it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a white Christmas full of chalk after all.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it could be again. This line is very good.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how much I would mess with it.

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Speaker 2: I think I'm with you a gun to my head.

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Speaker 2: I am taking Baltimore in this game. I feel like

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Speaker 2: my favorite play might be the over though. I just

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Speaker 2: think that Stroud is gonna be able to pass a

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Speaker 2: little bit. I thought he did a great job against

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Speaker 2: Kansas City. Obviously didn't all work out, but I thought

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Speaker 2: he was really good in that game, and Baltimore can

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Speaker 2: be passed on. So I don't know. So I see

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Speaker 2: this as tight for a little bit, and I feel

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Speaker 2: like there's going to be some points we'll see.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about CJ. Stroud. The total is one

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Speaker 1: half passing touchdowns. You want to go over or under that.

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Speaker 2: Let's go over that one. It's plus one thirty six.

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Speaker 2: I love that number. Two passing touchdowns and three of

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Speaker 2: the last four for CJ. Stroud. Baltimore still thirty first

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Speaker 2: against the pass rush through two touchdowns against them, and

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Speaker 2: the text in sixty eight point four passing touchdowns to

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Speaker 2: thirty two point six rushing touchdowns fifth highest passing touchdown

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Speaker 2: percentage in the NFL. So when they're getting down there,

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Speaker 2: most of the time, they aren't throwing yet. So I

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Speaker 2: like the over on the touchdowns for Stroud.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about Joe Mixon sixty seven and a

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Speaker 1: half rushing yards where Baltimore is good up front, this

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Speaker 1: is a bit of a problem.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: Mixing is what they want to do. So can they

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Speaker 1: force the ball enough there to get over the sixty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half or does it fall short?

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Speaker 2: I think it falls short. It just has not been

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Speaker 2: working well recently, right, so mixing. You know, he's been

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Speaker 2: under this in three of us last four. This total

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Speaker 2: has also fallen three yards. By the way, it was

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Speaker 2: seventy and a half when I looked at it yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Wake up this morning. Sixty seven, and I haf Baltimore

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Speaker 2: number one rush defense in the NFL and Houston just

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Speaker 2: passes a lot eleventh and passing percentage. Some teams have

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Speaker 2: completely abandoned the run versus Baltimore. We saw Houston do

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Speaker 2: that against Kansas City last week and they had forty

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Speaker 2: one pass plays in seventeen rush plays. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: just think that this is one where you know, you

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Speaker 2: get down ten points and you start to chuck it.

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Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens with Stroud, But I just

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Speaker 2: the way Baltimore's defense is beatable through the air and

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Speaker 2: not beatable on the ground, it makes for preeasy pick here.

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Speaker 1: It's biaging of chucking the ball down the field. Tank

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Speaker 1: Dal's not going to be there, Sevon Digg's not going

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Speaker 1: to be there, so that leaves pretty much one guy

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Speaker 1: and you go Collin six and a half receptions, So

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Speaker 1: this has to be an over.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I mean Dell's down, Baltimore's favored. They abandoned

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Speaker 2: the run against Kansas City. Houston did, and he's had

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Speaker 2: twenty seven targets. Since last three games, he's gone over

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Speaker 2: six and a half. He has had an eight to

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Speaker 2: four and a seven in that stretch. So yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think they're gonna do everything they can to stop Niko,

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Speaker 2: but you just can't stop Nico. I mean, some of

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Speaker 2: these catches in him and Stroud seem to have kind

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Speaker 2: of a sixth sense working right now. So with more targets,

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Speaker 2: it looks like with Dell down, I think this one

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Speaker 2: is you know, if he has four in the first half,

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Speaker 2: I think you're cruising.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go for a touchdown here in this game.

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Speaker 1: What's the best touchdown call on the board for you?

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Speaker 2: Give me Mark Andrews. I didn't have a lot of

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Speaker 2: props for Baltimore because Zay Flowers is questionable. There's just

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Speaker 2: a lot of questionable guys right now. They estimated Dereck

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Speaker 2: Henry as a no practice. Same thing with Lamar yesterday.

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Speaker 2: I think all these guys are gonna play. It's last year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, some thing too, it's late in the year, short rests,

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Speaker 1: all that stuff, you know.

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Speaker 2: But because of that, we're not getting props in other spots.

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Speaker 2: So give me Mark Andrews a plus one fifty. Still

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Speaker 2: not catching a lot of footballs, but they are in

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Speaker 2: the end zone a lot when he catches them.

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Speaker 1: All right, so that's what the Christmas looks like on Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to Thursday in a second. Don't forget. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you download the Betting pros apps, sink your sports

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Speaker 1: books for free, and use the tools to make you successful,

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Speaker 1: including the Betting Systems tool. You could track your performance

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Speaker 1: of different betting systems over time, you can optimize your bets,

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Speaker 1: and the Customizable Betting Systems tool. You could do it

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Speaker 1: by sport, by bettype, by time frame, anything that you want.

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Speaker 1: And there's plenty on there to check out. Or I said,

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Speaker 1: you can create your own, but you can only do

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Speaker 1: it if you download the Betting pros app today and

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Speaker 1: start elevating your betting strategy to take your betting to

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Speaker 1: the next level. Let's talk about this Thursday night game here,

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Speaker 1: not necessarily one that we're running to Chicago four and

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Speaker 1: eleven hosting at home the Seattle Seahawks eight and seven.

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Speaker 1: The Seahawks have a lot to play for trying to

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Speaker 1: stay alive here in the West. Minus three and a

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Speaker 1: half favorites against Chicago forty two and a half is

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Speaker 1: the total plus one forty five for the Chicago Bears

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Speaker 1: on the money line. Now Bogs. Here's the thing. Seattle's

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Speaker 1: a better football team. It is again, short week for

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Speaker 1: everybody here. Chicago feels like a team then disarray and

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Speaker 1: just kind of falling apart at the seams. But I

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Speaker 1: just don't know if I have enough trust anywhere investment

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Speaker 1: in this game. I gotta be honest with this is

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Speaker 1: a tough one. If anything, you know, I think I'm

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Speaker 1: just looking to the props. But for this game in particular,

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Speaker 1: is it anything that stands out to you on the lines?

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Speaker 2: I feel better about this game than I do the

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Speaker 2: other two, just a little bit, just because there's so

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Speaker 2: much on the line for Seattle and there's nothing on

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Speaker 2: the line for Chicago. I just think we're gonna see

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Speaker 2: Seattle's best effort. There's also it looks like rain in

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Speaker 2: the forecast right now. We've seen Seattle play through a

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Speaker 2: bunch of rain games already this year, obviously in Seattle

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Speaker 2: and cold and rainy and not crazy windy. I think

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Speaker 2: what I saw was eight miles per hour was your

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Speaker 2: standard winning this game. So not anything that should affect

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Speaker 2: passing with rain. Usually the defense is the one that

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Speaker 2: you know is not great because of the rain. It's

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Speaker 2: not I know people talk about the ball slipping, and sure,

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Speaker 2: maybe turnovers happen a little bit more in the rain,

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Speaker 2: but you have DB's running backwards on a slick turf.

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Speaker 2: That's not good, especially against jas N and DK Metcalf.

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Speaker 2: So I like the over more.

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Speaker 1: Than anything Bee two. If I had one, Yeah, the

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Speaker 1: over on this one. All right, let's get to some

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Speaker 1: of these individuals here. I'll talk with Caleb Williams two

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Speaker 1: fifteen and the half passing yards at minus one fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Look the under or the over?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the over on this one, two hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifteen and a half yards. Four of his last

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Speaker 2: five games he's gone over this. Chicago routinely has a

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Speaker 2: band in the run since getting rid of Waldron, and

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Speaker 2: he's hit this in four of six since Waldron was fired.

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Speaker 2: You know, we just talked about it. I kind of

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Speaker 2: like Seattle in this game. I think there's way more

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Speaker 2: to play for for them, So I just think that

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Speaker 2: Caleb is going to have to pass. They give up

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Speaker 2: on that run so quick with DeAndre Swift recently, I

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Speaker 2: think it's going to happen again in this game.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go talk about DK Metcalf because I

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Speaker 1: know you always like these longest receptions here, and the

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Speaker 1: Bears certainly have allowed some big play. So twenty four

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Speaker 1: and a half is the longest reception for DK minus

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Speaker 1: one fourteen. So let's talk about this one. Let's air

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Speaker 1: this one out before DK gets aired out here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, hopefully this isn't the ghost of Christmas pass that

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Speaker 2: I'm seeing here, right, Hopefully he's all good. But twenty

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Speaker 2: four and a half on the longest reception, I mean,

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Speaker 2: the Bears have a lot fifty three plays over twenty

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Speaker 2: yards this season. Metcalf is number one in the NFL

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Speaker 2: in targets of twenty or more yards. A rain in

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Speaker 2: the forecast again helps the offense with those dB slipping back,

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Speaker 2: especially on a go route. So I like Metcalf to

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Speaker 2: hit a big one in this game. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if he's gonna have a ton of receptions. Because Gino

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Speaker 2: has been obsessed with JSN recently, it's a good spot

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Speaker 2: to be in. None of his numbers paid well, by

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Speaker 2: the way JSN. I looked at a bunch of props

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Speaker 2: for him, didn't really like them. With the numbers. It's

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Speaker 2: also early in the week, so we're not getting everything

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Speaker 2: we could possibly have, but I think if somebody's gonna

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Speaker 2: catch a big pass in this game, I like it

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Speaker 2: to be DK.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about Keenan. Nowen, the number for

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Speaker 1: him is fifty nine and a half receiving yards. So

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Speaker 1: I guess this is your target to go over if

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Speaker 1: you like Caleb Williams. Right, somebody's got to be the

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Speaker 1: favorite target here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And he's had thirteen targets in each of the

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Speaker 2: last two games. He's hit this in four to six

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Speaker 2: since the OC change, and he could pick this up

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Speaker 2: because a lot like DK Metcalf. He's had twenty one

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Speaker 2: targets of twenty or more yards this season. That's tied

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Speaker 2: for twelve. I had twenty five yard receptions in four

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Speaker 2: of his last six games. And we just saw what

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Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson did to Seattle's defense, right, I mean, he's

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Speaker 2: not Justin Jefferson, nobody is, but that is a leaky

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Speaker 2: secondary right now in Seattle. So I think Keenan should

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Speaker 2: see a decent amount of targets in this game.

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Speaker 1: All right, touchdown call time for Thursday night football? What

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Speaker 1: do you have for everybody?

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Speaker 2: Romadonsay, And it's because I like the number. It's plus

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Speaker 2: two seventy. I do think the overs here just they've

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Speaker 2: been designing a lot of plays for Rome in the

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Speaker 2: red zone in short yardage. I think that's kind of

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Speaker 2: where he lives. He did drop one a couple of

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Speaker 2: weeks ago, which made me pretty mad at him. It

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Speaker 2: was right after I went out on a limb for

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Speaker 2: him and defended him in a Dynasty conversation with a

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Speaker 2: Welsh So I'm a little mad at him, But he

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Speaker 2: can make it up for me by winning me some

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Speaker 2: money and getting in the end zone this weekend, that's

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Speaker 2: what we want, or this Thursday. I guess I should.

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Speaker 1: Say they start to run together. All I know is

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Speaker 1: that every day there's a football game now until the

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Speaker 1: end of the year, pretty much one on right now,

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Speaker 1: which is great. I mean, I love it, but at

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Speaker 1: the same time, when you're in the content side, it

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Speaker 1: gets a little exhausting at tones. But we're going to

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Speaker 1: refresh over the holidays. We want everybody to have a

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Speaker 1: great holiday here from us at Betting Pros. Again, make

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Speaker 1: sure if you're listening to the podcast, you give us

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Speaker 1: a five star review wherever you get your podcasts. It's

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Speaker 1: a small thing, but it's a really big impact on

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Speaker 1: the show, so we really appreciate if you could drop

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Speaker 1: a five star review wherever you listen, and make sure

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Speaker 1: you drop a little review too how much you love

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Speaker 1: the shows and of course how much you love Scott Bogman.

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Speaker 1: That's always nice. And of course don't forget to subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the YouTube channel here a Betting Pros because we're

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Speaker 1: going to take you through the rest of the NFL season,

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Speaker 1: through the playoffs, college football, playoffs, NBA everything before you know.

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Speaker 1: At baseball be around the corner and I'm looking forward

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Speaker 1: to that because it's seventeen degree right now. Yeah, baseball,

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Speaker 1: black Book's out, I mean, let's go, We're ready to go.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's crazy time, man, it's crazy time. And

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Speaker 1: behalf on all of us here at Betting Pros. We

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Speaker 1: want to wish everybody happy healthy holiday as well, So

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Speaker 1: enjoy the time with your friends and family, enjoy the

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Speaker 1: football because there's certainly enough of it that'll do it

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Speaker 1: for us. But the story of the game goes on

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Speaker 1: for Scott bog and I'm Joey p. We'll see you

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Speaker 1: next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

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Speaker 3: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

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Speaker 3: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 3: or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros,

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Speaker 1: Also subscribe to our

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Speaker 3: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros