WEBVTT - Founder & Managing Partner at Arbroath Group Christopher Smart talks the latest out of Iran and Hungary

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. We're going to talk

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<v Speaker 1>to someone who I think touches upon, whatever your politics,

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<v Speaker 1>the state of our diplomacy. Christopher Smart is founder and

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<v Speaker 1>managing partner at Arberth. But, as Bill Burns writes in

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<v Speaker 1>Foreign Affairs this Week, or I've seen Nicholas Burns, our

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<v Speaker 1>former ambassador to China, out in the zeitgeist as well,

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<v Speaker 1>Christopher smartest part of that team, founder, managing partner at Arbeth,

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<v Speaker 1>with his public service to the nation in our diplomacy. So, Christopher,

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<v Speaker 1>what's so concerning to me is we all, at gunpoint

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<v Speaker 1>read a thousand pages of Henry Kissinger Diplomacy. Some of

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<v Speaker 1>us read it cover to cover, full disclosure. I did,

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<v Speaker 1>and then the chosen few got Pickering or Wrangel fellowships,

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<v Speaker 1>including my first intern here at Bloomberg, and they could

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<v Speaker 1>join the magic that was your State Department. Is that

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<v Speaker 1>process still in place or have we broken our diplomacy?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Tom, that's a big question this morning, Good morning

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<v Speaker 2>to you, and I think the the.

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<v Speaker 3>Sad answer is we've broken a lot of it.

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<v Speaker 2>I think there's still some extraordinary career foreign service officers

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<v Speaker 2>at their posts this morning, but a great many of

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<v Speaker 2>them have left, and a great many who have left

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<v Speaker 2>had that both experience and institutional memory that is so

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<v Speaker 2>important in negotiations, you know, just as an aside as

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<v Speaker 2>you know, negotiations are not just about going into a

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<v Speaker 2>room for twenty one hours and hoping to strike a deal.

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<v Speaker 2>It's about building trust between the two sides. It's about

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<v Speaker 2>following up on the very difficult details of any negotiation.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think that's what we're seeing unravel in front

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<v Speaker 2>of us right now, and what makes these next few

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<v Speaker 2>weeks and months between the US and Iran so unpredictable

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<v Speaker 2>Away from.

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<v Speaker 1>The weeks or months. Alexis went to address that, but

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<v Speaker 1>Christopher Smart critically here, what do you perceive is our

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<v Speaker 1>healing diplomacy after the time of President Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>I think people want America to succeed around the world,

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<v Speaker 2>and I think they will look at this period as

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<v Speaker 2>a difficult one. We've had a lot of difficult periods

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<v Speaker 2>in our history before, and I think they will hope

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<v Speaker 2>that we can re engage with the world, not necessarily

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<v Speaker 2>the way we've done it before under previous presidents, but

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<v Speaker 2>in a way that is more predictable, more easily for them.

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<v Speaker 2>To engage with, and a sense that we in the

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<v Speaker 2>United States are looking to build a set of rules

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<v Speaker 2>and behaviors with other countries, rather than you so intensely

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<v Speaker 2>focusing on just the next particular edge for our own advantage.

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<v Speaker 4>I just want to talk for a moment about what's

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<v Speaker 4>happening over in Hungary. We saw that election this week

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<v Speaker 4>in a crushing defeat for PM victor Orbon. He had

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<v Speaker 4>such an outsized global influence, and of course we know

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<v Speaker 4>he repeatedly blocked aid for Ukraine to fend off Russia's invasion.

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<v Speaker 4>What does it mean now, the fact that he is

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<v Speaker 4>no longer in that position, What does it mean for

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<v Speaker 4>I think Ukraine especially.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think you know, for I'll say this for Tom.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, you never like to see a team like

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<v Speaker 2>the Red Sox digging themselves out of a hole. Hungary

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<v Speaker 2>is kind of a country that has dug a deep

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<v Speaker 2>hole for itself for the last sixteen years and is

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<v Speaker 2>in the process we see now digging itself out.

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<v Speaker 3>And so that's the good news. It's also good news, as.

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<v Speaker 2>You point out, for Ukraine, because the Urban government has

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<v Speaker 2>been blocking Europe's efforts to assist Ukraine and Europe's efforts

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<v Speaker 2>to increase pressure on Russia. So that's good news as well,

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<v Speaker 2>But it does have a lot of internal repair to

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<v Speaker 2>undertake right now, and Prime Minister madjar Or, who is

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<v Speaker 2>coming into office, will have to do a whole lot

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<v Speaker 2>of addressing the institutional damage that Prime Minister Orbon has

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<v Speaker 2>done to impose to politicize the courts, the central Bank,

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<v Speaker 2>other institutions across the country.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's the Hungarian's main challenge right now.

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<v Speaker 4>What about I just want to stick with Hungary because

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<v Speaker 4>there's so much to unpack. Orbon was Russia's closest ally

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<v Speaker 4>in the EU and courted China. What are those countries

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<v Speaker 4>are they distancing themselves already from the new government? I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>I know it hasn't really been put in place yet,

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<v Speaker 4>has it.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think it happens well, it will come, it

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<v Speaker 3>will enter office very quickly.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the other countries are trying to understand what's

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<v Speaker 2>going on. In some sense, this isn't a big surprise

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<v Speaker 2>for anybody, because the polls had shown that he would win,

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<v Speaker 2>although there was very there was a lot of concern

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<v Speaker 2>that it would be a close election and therefore a

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<v Speaker 2>disputed election. I think the Chinese are very pragmatic. They

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<v Speaker 2>will deal with whomever is the prime minister right now.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Russia will do the same, although they will

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<v Speaker 2>continue to work with Orbon who's now moving into opposition

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<v Speaker 2>with his fetish party. But right now the momentum is

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<v Speaker 2>on the side of the new prime minister rebuilding its

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<v Speaker 2>ties with the European Union. They you know, the leadership

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<v Speaker 2>across Europe has embraced him. And I think the other

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<v Speaker 2>interesting piece subtext to all this is the populist parties

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<v Speaker 2>in France, in Germany and elsewhere around Europe, who may

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<v Speaker 2>be feeling like they have to modulate their message a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit to be you know, to understand that europe

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<v Speaker 2>is still a very popular message with a great many

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<v Speaker 2>voters across the continent, and that turning too much against Brussels,

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<v Speaker 2>against further integration is not necessarily a winning path for them.

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<v Speaker 1>Christopher Smart, thank you so much. Haven't a head on it.

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<v Speaker 1>They just we need to get you on much much more.

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<v Speaker 1>We were Smart with our birth group and his public

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<v Speaker 1>service to the nation at the State Department and the

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<v Speaker 1>White House as well.