Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. We're going to talk
Speaker 1: to someone who I think touches upon, whatever your politics,
Speaker 1: the state of our diplomacy. Christopher Smart is founder and
Speaker 1: managing partner at Arberth. But, as Bill Burns writes in
Speaker 1: Foreign Affairs this Week, or I've seen Nicholas Burns, our
Speaker 1: former ambassador to China, out in the zeitgeist as well,
Speaker 1: Christopher smartest part of that team, founder, managing partner at Arbeth,
Speaker 1: with his public service to the nation in our diplomacy. So, Christopher,
Speaker 1: what's so concerning to me is we all, at gunpoint
Speaker 1: read a thousand pages of Henry Kissinger Diplomacy. Some of
Speaker 1: us read it cover to cover, full disclosure. I did,
Speaker 1: and then the chosen few got Pickering or Wrangel fellowships,
Speaker 1: including my first intern here at Bloomberg, and they could
Speaker 1: join the magic that was your State Department. Is that
Speaker 1: process still in place or have we broken our diplomacy?
Speaker 2: Well, Tom, that's a big question this morning, Good morning
Speaker 2: to you, and I think the the.
Speaker 3: Sad answer is we've broken a lot of it.
Speaker 2: I think there's still some extraordinary career foreign service officers
Speaker 2: at their posts this morning, but a great many of
Speaker 2: them have left, and a great many who have left
Speaker 2: had that both experience and institutional memory that is so
Speaker 2: important in negotiations, you know, just as an aside as
Speaker 2: you know, negotiations are not just about going into a
Speaker 2: room for twenty one hours and hoping to strike a deal.
Speaker 2: It's about building trust between the two sides. It's about
Speaker 2: following up on the very difficult details of any negotiation.
Speaker 2: And I think that's what we're seeing unravel in front
Speaker 2: of us right now, and what makes these next few
Speaker 2: weeks and months between the US and Iran so unpredictable
Speaker 2: Away from.
Speaker 1: The weeks or months. Alexis went to address that, but
Speaker 1: Christopher Smart critically here, what do you perceive is our
Speaker 1: healing diplomacy after the time of President Trump.
Speaker 2: I think people want America to succeed around the world,
Speaker 2: and I think they will look at this period as
Speaker 2: a difficult one. We've had a lot of difficult periods
Speaker 2: in our history before, and I think they will hope
Speaker 2: that we can re engage with the world, not necessarily
Speaker 2: the way we've done it before under previous presidents, but
Speaker 2: in a way that is more predictable, more easily for them.
Speaker 2: To engage with, and a sense that we in the
Speaker 2: United States are looking to build a set of rules
Speaker 2: and behaviors with other countries, rather than you so intensely
Speaker 2: focusing on just the next particular edge for our own advantage.
Speaker 4: I just want to talk for a moment about what's
Speaker 4: happening over in Hungary. We saw that election this week
Speaker 4: in a crushing defeat for PM victor Orbon. He had
Speaker 4: such an outsized global influence, and of course we know
Speaker 4: he repeatedly blocked aid for Ukraine to fend off Russia's invasion.
Speaker 4: What does it mean now, the fact that he is
Speaker 4: no longer in that position, What does it mean for
Speaker 4: I think Ukraine especially.
Speaker 3: Well, I think you know, for I'll say this for Tom.
Speaker 2: You know, you never like to see a team like
Speaker 2: the Red Sox digging themselves out of a hole. Hungary
Speaker 2: is kind of a country that has dug a deep
Speaker 2: hole for itself for the last sixteen years and is
Speaker 2: in the process we see now digging itself out.
Speaker 3: And so that's the good news. It's also good news, as.
Speaker 2: You point out, for Ukraine, because the Urban government has
Speaker 2: been blocking Europe's efforts to assist Ukraine and Europe's efforts
Speaker 2: to increase pressure on Russia. So that's good news as well,
Speaker 2: But it does have a lot of internal repair to
Speaker 2: undertake right now, and Prime Minister madjar Or, who is
Speaker 2: coming into office, will have to do a whole lot
Speaker 2: of addressing the institutional damage that Prime Minister Orbon has
Speaker 2: done to impose to politicize the courts, the central Bank,
Speaker 2: other institutions across the country.
Speaker 3: So that's the Hungarian's main challenge right now.
Speaker 4: What about I just want to stick with Hungary because
Speaker 4: there's so much to unpack. Orbon was Russia's closest ally
Speaker 4: in the EU and courted China. What are those countries
Speaker 4: are they distancing themselves already from the new government? I mean,
Speaker 4: I know it hasn't really been put in place yet,
Speaker 4: has it.
Speaker 3: I don't think it happens well, it will come, it
Speaker 3: will enter office very quickly.
Speaker 2: I think the other countries are trying to understand what's
Speaker 2: going on. In some sense, this isn't a big surprise
Speaker 2: for anybody, because the polls had shown that he would win,
Speaker 2: although there was very there was a lot of concern
Speaker 2: that it would be a close election and therefore a
Speaker 2: disputed election. I think the Chinese are very pragmatic. They
Speaker 2: will deal with whomever is the prime minister right now.
Speaker 2: I think Russia will do the same, although they will
Speaker 2: continue to work with Orbon who's now moving into opposition
Speaker 2: with his fetish party. But right now the momentum is
Speaker 2: on the side of the new prime minister rebuilding its
Speaker 2: ties with the European Union. They you know, the leadership
Speaker 2: across Europe has embraced him. And I think the other
Speaker 2: interesting piece subtext to all this is the populist parties
Speaker 2: in France, in Germany and elsewhere around Europe, who may
Speaker 2: be feeling like they have to modulate their message a
Speaker 2: little bit to be you know, to understand that europe
Speaker 2: is still a very popular message with a great many
Speaker 2: voters across the continent, and that turning too much against Brussels,
Speaker 2: against further integration is not necessarily a winning path for them.
Speaker 1: Christopher Smart, thank you so much. Haven't a head on it.
Speaker 1: They just we need to get you on much much more.
Speaker 1: We were Smart with our birth group and his public
Speaker 1: service to the nation at the State Department and the
Speaker 1: White House as well.