WEBVTT - GM Suspends Guidance, Carney Wins Canada Election 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.520 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.520 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:17.799 Eastern on Apple Coarcklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:21.000 Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:23.080 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.880 --> 0:00:26.400 Let's get your earnings and go to GM. So, regardless 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:28.560 of the quarter, they pulled their guidance and moved their 0:00:28.600 --> 0:00:32.280 earnings call to Thursday. They also froze their share buy back, 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:36.480 all on issues surrounding tariffs. David Welsh's Bloomberg Detroit Brio 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:39.080 Chief to recap some of those earnings, David, why did 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:40.680 they push their call forty eight hours? 0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:42.280 What are they going to learn in those two days? 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:46.520 As they were preparing last night for today's earnings call, 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:50.559 there were reports coming out from US and others that 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:53.599 the Trump administration would relax some of the auto tariffs, 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:57.080 but there's no detail in there. There's some out there 0:00:57.080 --> 0:01:00.000 that they won't stack metals tariffs on top of auto tariff, 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:02.600 for example, and there could be some relief on parts, 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:06.240 but until automakers look at the details and see exactly 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:07.679 what they're going to have to pay and what they 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:10.400 won't be paying. It's hard for them to forecast earnings 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:13.480 and sales and look, they have all kinds of ways 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:15.600 to try to plan for tariffs and mitigate them and 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:18.160 also model out the impact on the business, and they 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:19.920 can't do any of that until they know exactly what 0:01:19.959 --> 0:01:23.000 it's going to say. So I think what GM did 0:01:23.080 --> 0:01:25.280 is they looked at this and they just said, hey, 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:28.480 the guidance that they had given out did not count 0:01:28.600 --> 0:01:33.360 really for any kind of major tariff scheme here, despite 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:34.959 the fact that Trump and campaign on it and said 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:37.160 he was going to levy them. They gave guidance that 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:39.520 had nothing to do with those tariffs. I think probably 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:42.319 the tariffs are bigger than GM thought, much more aggressive 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:45.920 than GM thought. So they've withdrawn the guidance and they 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:48.280 had a six billion dollar share buyback. Two of it's 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:50.559 already funded and will be done in the second quarter. 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.280 The other four billions on hold again until they can 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:55.480 understand what the tariffs will mean for their profits and 0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:58.840 their cash flow. So this is all about finding out 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:01.360 what the details are, trying to model and plan the 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:04.160 business going forward, and they just don't feel they can 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:04.840 do it right now. 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:08.680 What are GM and some of the other auto manufacturers 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:11.919 doing now, David, in terms of are they making any 0:02:12.000 --> 0:02:16.760 changes to production, to sales incentives or is it just 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:18.799 business as usual? As they try to figure out what's going. 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:21.920 On, there are small changes here and there. It's really 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:24.920 difficult to change production or change your parts. I mean, 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:25.920 you can't do that overnight. 0:02:25.919 --> 0:02:26.239 You can't. 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:29.120 It can take a year to do that, let alone. 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:32.080 We've been at this for a couple of months. But 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:34.680 the one thing General Motors has done so they have 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:37.840 four pickup truck plants. It's their highest volume vehicle that 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:41.320 the Chevrolet Silverado and gmcc Era. Two of the plants 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:43.320 are in the US, ones in Canada, ones in Mexico. 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:46.320 Of course, those vehicles coming from Canada Mexico are subject 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:49.880 to tariffs at least on the parts, the nine US 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:53.800 parts inside them, and that's pretty substantial. So what GM 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:57.000 has done there is they've jacked up production at their 0:02:57.160 --> 0:03:00.320 four Wayne, Indiana plant to get more pickups out of there. 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:02.480 They've just increased when they were already running three shifts, 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:04.440 but they've increased the line speed, so they're working at 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.440 faster to get more vehicles out. It'll add about fifty 0:03:07.480 --> 0:03:12.000 thousand trucks a year, and that's one way to offset 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:16.880 tariff production of trucks and sell American made vehicles. And 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:19.680 you're seeing stuff like that. You know, I think some 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:22.720 companies may be slowing production of some vehicles that have 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:25.280 tariffs on them because they either can't pass the cost 0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:28.920 on to consumers or it's no longer as profitable to 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:31.360 sell so many of them. So you may be seeing 0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:33.919 some of that stuff, but a lot of it's been 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:36.440 business as usual, but you're seeing some small moves like 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:38.080 GM has made really. 0:03:37.960 --> 0:03:40.080 Interested to hear that that call on Thursday, David, Thanks 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:40.400 so much. 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:43.560 David Welsh, Bloomberg, Detroit via Chief Joining us there. 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:49.000 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:03:49.080 --> 0:03:52.160 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:55.480 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:58.640 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:01.680 All right, let's add to can Now you have Mark 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:05.640 Carney's edge slips as Canada's election comes to a hectic end. 0:04:05.680 --> 0:04:09.440 He won yet by a very very very thin margin. 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:13.000 David Gerr's correspondent for Bloomberg, host a Big Take podcast 0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:15.320 I should say to his party one, but walk us 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:15.960 through the results. 0:04:15.960 --> 0:04:16.279 What we know. 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:18.800 Yeah, an incredibly close race. So Mark Carney emerges here 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:21.279 with the mandate, but it is not a majority mandate, 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:23.360 which is what he and his party wanted. So what 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:25.160 that means an effect, is in the coming days, he's 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:26.599 going to have to figure out how he's going to 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:29.200 work with other political parties in this country to pass 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:32.400 his ambitious legislative agenda, so much of which centers on 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:34.720 the economic predicament this country is in, and of course 0:04:34.760 --> 0:04:38.080 the trade this country's engaged with the US on. And 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:39.800 so what Mark Carney said over the course of this 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:42.400 campaign is he intends to win that trade war. He 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:45.080 intends to go to Washington present himself in a meeting 0:04:45.080 --> 0:04:47.120 with President Trump as somebody who's not going to back 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:49.360 down on Canada's position in that trade war. That's what 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:51.320 we're going to be watching for here in the coming days. 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:53.480 One effect that that meeting takes place again, it's something 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:56.159 that he promised would happen in shorter We'll see if 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:58.760 that's in days or weeks. But two things sort of 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:00.600 up ended the course of this race over the last 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:02.200 couple of months. The first of which, of course is 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:04.880 Mark Arney becoming the leader of the Liberal Party. The 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:06.880 second of which was Donald Trump returned into the White 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:10.000 House in Washington and attacking this country really on two fronts, 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:12.280 one on the side of trade in the economy, the other, 0:05:12.320 --> 0:05:14.960 of course, on the country's sovereignty. And Mark Karney has 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:16.720 said from the get go here he never found those 0:05:16.720 --> 0:05:19.840 remarks from President Trump about Canada becoming the fifty first 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:21.839 state as any kind of a joke. He took it seriously, 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:23.600 and that is something he said over and over again, 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:25.280 Alex and Paul is not negotiable. 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:29.040 So talk to us about conservatism in Canada. Is it 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:31.880 as vibrant as it is in the United States, as 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:34.680 it is in some European countries like Germany. Is it 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:37.839 to the point where anybody in Canada will be okay 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:40.120 with being referred to as a fifty first state. 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:44.839 That is definitely not the case. But you bring up 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:47.120 a really interesting question that is where does the Conservative 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:49.400 Party in this country go from here? So Peer PAULIV, 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:51.599 the leader of the Conservative Party, who is in effect 0:05:51.760 --> 0:05:55.039 running against Mark Karney, actually lost his seat last night 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:56.920 in a district just about thirty or forty five minutes 0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:59.320 from where I'm standing, So that kind of throws things 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:01.720 up in the air in terms of will he continue 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:03.960 to lead the Conservative Party. Is there going to be 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:05.880 a situation in which he can kind of convince somebody 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:07.840 else in the party who was elected to step down 0:06:07.839 --> 0:06:09.680 so that he could run in a by election for 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:12.719 that seat. That's all up in the air here, and 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:14.920 you ask just kind of about the breed of conservatism 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:17.320 that we see here. Peer Polyev is somebody who has 0:06:17.360 --> 0:06:20.080 been compared in terms of political style to Donald Trump, 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:22.279 the president of the United States. If there's make America 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:24.719 great again in the United States, there's make Canada grade 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:28.640 again here in Canada, as sort of headlined by Peer Polyev. 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:31.760 So they had an amazing showing yesterday. By all kind 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:34.640 of historical records, they did extremely well, if they still 0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:37.280 didn't best the Liberals, And that's really extraordinary again when 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:39.240 you look at kind of the not so long ago history. 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:41.880 Just a few months ago, before Mark Carney entered this race, 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:44.599 the Conservatives had a twenty plus point lead over the 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:47.240 Liberal Party and that was squandered here over the last 0:06:47.279 --> 0:06:48.839 few months. So there'll be a lot of soul searching. 0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:51.200 Paul and alex within the party about what went wrong 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:52.920 and what the party can do differently going forward. 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:56.120 So your's an insanely unfair question, considering that your reporter. 0:06:56.240 --> 0:06:57.679 So you know, I'll take this for the grand salt. 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:02.000 But if President Trump had not come aggressively after Canada, 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:04.360 either in terms of tariffs or more importantly making it 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:08.600 a fifty first state, would this election have been different? 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:12.160 Were there other issues that got kind of sidelined at 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:12.600 this point? 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:17.960 I think no doubt the fact that Donald Trump talked 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:19.760 about Canada as much as he did and made those 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:22.480 threats with something that Mark Karney, who is a career 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:24.720 technocrat he headed the Bank of Canada and the Bank 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:26.960 of England for a time, to serve as the chair 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:31.400 of bloomberg Ingk's board and Brookfield Asset Management. This gave 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:33.760 him an opening to present himself as kind of a 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:35.920 foil to Donald Trump, to be a foil to that 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:37.840 kind of breed of populism that we've seen in the 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:40.640 president of the United States, and it really changed the polling, 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:44.760 changed Canadian's engagement with this election. So yes, as that 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:46.840 soul searching takes place among the Conservative Party, I think 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:48.320 there's also an awareness of the fact that this is 0:07:48.360 --> 0:07:50.960 a very unique circumstance and the Canadians, as a result 0:07:51.000 --> 0:07:53.080 of what Donald Trump said and did, really kind of 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:55.520 galvanized the electorate here in Canada in a way that 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:57.480 they might not have three four five months ago. 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:00.960 David, you've been up in Ottawa for a few days now, 0:08:01.640 --> 0:08:03.720 what's the feeling of the person on the street here, 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:06.560 because as it relates to their relationship with the US, 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:08.720 because I don't think I've ever come across anybody in 0:08:08.720 --> 0:08:11.080 my life that has anything negative to say about Canada. 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:15.840 But you know, so, I'm not sure how how President's comments, 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:18.120 how reflective they are of US folks, But how did 0:08:18.120 --> 0:08:19.160 the people in Canada feel? 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:24.800 Just as Mark Carney didn't find the comments from the 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:26.840 President about the fifty first state as a joke, nobody 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:29.040 with whom I've spoken has found them funny as well, 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:31.240 So they've taken it as a real serious threat also, 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:33.280 And there's a sensus you talk to people here as 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:35.319 I have over the last few days, of just kind 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:37.800 of bewilderment why the circumstances are that the way they are. 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:40.240 They listened to President Trump, they listened to that rhetoric, 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:41.800 and they wonder sort of how they got here in 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:44.400 light of what you're talking about, Paul, which is this 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:46.840 is an allyship. This is a partnership that's existed for 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:50.360 a couple centuries now, a very happy and important allyship 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:51.079 of two nations. 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:51.959 And to see it. 0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:54.360 Kind of changed in fundamentally in the way that it 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:56.680 has been over the last few months has really astounded 0:08:56.679 --> 0:08:58.320 people here. And I'm going back to what the Prime 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.559 Minister has said here. We're surprised by that rhetoric to 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:03.800 begin with, but they've moved past that, as Mark Karney says, 0:09:03.800 --> 0:09:05.360 and now they have to kind of plot a new 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:08.319 path forward that's going to take place in those negotiations 0:09:08.320 --> 0:09:10.480 in the White House, but also in just the way 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:13.599 that the Liberal Party government here under Mark Karney is 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:16.960 looking at the world and kind of rethinking relationships with 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:19.520 other countries. And we've seen that over his rather short 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:21.720 prime ministership so far. He's made trips to Europe of 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:24.079 course into England as well. He's trying to find new 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.920 outlets for Canadian products and sort of new arrangements, new 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:30.120 relationships for Canada engage in as the US kind of falls. 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:30.280 To the side. 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:32.959 All Right, David really great reporting. Thank you so very much. 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:36.040 David Gert. He's the host of Bloomberg a Big Take podcast, 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:39.080 also a correspondent for a Bloomberg News. 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:44.560 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:47.760 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:51.079 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:09:51.120 --> 0:09:54.240 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:09:54.720 --> 0:09:56.600 So for the broader markets, the question is where are 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:59.080 those IPOs? Where's all the M and A. What happens 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.720 to private markets? We heard that report? Was it over 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:04.080 the weekend that Harvard wants to be offloading? Was a 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:07.959 Harvard or Yale, I'll fload their private equity slots because 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:10.760 they really need the liquidity. Joining us now is Ted Swimmer, 0:10:10.800 --> 0:10:14.560 head of Capital Markets and Advisory at Citizens Bank. Ted, 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:16.360 what's your world like right now? 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:16.480 Like? 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:18.760 What are the concerns? What are the positives? 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:22.920 Well, good morning Alex and good morning Paul. Things have 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:25.840 certainly slowed over the last couple of months. From an 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:29.559 M and A perspective. As we entered the year, we thought, 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:34.360 with lower regulation, potential upbeats and earnings, that we were 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:35.880 going to get off to a really good start in 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:38.319 M and A, and it started out that way. There 0:10:38.360 --> 0:10:40.360 was a lot of really good activity going on. But 0:10:40.480 --> 0:10:43.400 since Liberation Day we've certainly seen things slow down a 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:45.600 little bit. It's hard to find a buyer and a 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:48.760 seller who can agree on what the next six months 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:51.400 of the year two years look like and therefore get 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:55.080 concerned about whether they should ink a deal or not. 0:10:55.400 --> 0:10:58.880 After saying that it is still very orderly out there, 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.320 we're not seeing We're still seeing a fair amount of 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:05.040 conversations going on. We're still we're still our pipelines a 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:08.200 citizens have never been bigger. So there still feels like 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:11.000 a lot of activity, a lot of discussions going on. 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:14.080 It just feels like at the moment it's hard to 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:17.480 get to a actual final contract on a deal. But 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:22.280 it does not feel like the world the ground is crumbling. 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:25.200 It still feels like there's activity. We saw a couple 0:11:25.200 --> 0:11:28.640 of deals get announced last week, so it's not the 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:30.160 end of the world, but it's still not as busy 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:31.160 as we'd hoped it would be. 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:32.560 Tedday, I know it's Citizens Bank. 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:35.640 You guys Target, and a lot of your clients are 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:38.240 middle size businesses and a lot of folks are saying, 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:40.439 you know, in the mid to smaller companies, they might 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:43.760 feel the tariff impact more than the larger companies, the 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:47.360 Amazons of the world, the Ibms of the world. Are 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:49.559 you hearing that from your clients that, boy, we're a 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:51.840 little bit more. This is going to be an issue. 0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:54.840 It's certainly industry specific as we talk about it. I mean, 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.280 we're in the data center space and they're not all 0:11:57.320 --> 0:12:01.400 that concerned about tariffs, but certainly those who work with China, 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:05.360 we have customers who have drawn on their lines to 0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:09.480 try to build up inventory pre pre teriff effect. So 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:12.600 we've seen some higher loan utilization as a result of that. 0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:16.520 So yes, we're seeing and feeling some of that, but 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:19.280 truly very industry specific on who's having that impact on 0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:20.200 who isn't. 0:12:20.440 --> 0:12:22.360 So what do you make of where the private markets 0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:24.600 are going to go? I just was mentioning how Yale 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:26.719 wants to offload some of their private equity stake in 0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:28.960 order to get some funding and get liquidity. What are 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:29.719 you hearing on that end? 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:32.640 This is a good market for private for private capital, 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:36.040 especially on the on the loan side, with the banks 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:38.520 backing up a little bit on being able to give 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.280 certainty on underwriting positions. We're seeing, uh, we're seeing some 0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:44.840 private capital reverse trends that we saw in the first 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:47.880 quarter when the syndicated market was going more banks. Now 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:51.920 private capital has a little bit more certainty on their deals, 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:55.800 So we're seeing that that impacts the leverage loan market. 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.440 What on the offset, it gives banks a lot of 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.120 a lot of ability to len to the direct lenders, 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:04.560 lend to the private capital, do equity issuances, do bond 0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:07.640 issuances as those markets come back, So it works in 0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:10.360 both ways. But we're seeing private capital have a really 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:13.800 good opportunity to put some loans to work on deals 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:17.000 that are more difficult time getting done the syndicated market 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:18.880 right now. So there's some good and some bad, I 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:20.960 think with everything with what's going on in the market 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:21.440 right now. 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:24.760 You know, for my Wall Street days, I remember being 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.720 taught early early on that MNY activity in large part 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:33.560 is based upon confidence and certainty. The more a c 0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:36.800 suite and a board feels about their business, more confident 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:40.160 they feel about the trends in the industry, more aggressive 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:41.920 they can be in terms of making a big capital 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:45.280 commitment or making a big m and a trade that 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:49.240 doesn't seem like the environment we're in today. 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:53.360 Again, it's industry specific, so I would agree with you, Paul. 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:58.280 In certain areas where tariffs or policy may have an impact, 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:01.280 it seems like the the M and A processes are 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:04.000 being delayed a little bit till there's more certainty around 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:07.600 what's going on. In other places, we feel very good 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:11.400 about people need to transact. What's different about what's going 0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:13.160 on here than we've seen in a lot of other 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:17.200 markets is the loan market, the bomb market are acting orderly. 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:20.240 There's still there. We're not seeing a time where there's 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:22.280 not execution of deals. We've seen people go to the 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.360 bomb market today, we're seeing them go, we saw them 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:26.960 go last week. So that we're not in a frozen 0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:30.040 period of time, and so if you're in an industry 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.480 where it's not going to be impacted by terraffs, we're 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:35.760 still seeing not robust M and A flow by any 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:37.800 stretch of the imagination, but we're certainly not seeing us 0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:39.360 shut down of the market altogether. 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:42.600 What do you think brings back the animal spirits? Like 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.160 what specifically what we need to see And I know 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:47.640 everyone's going to say clarity on tariffs but in theory, 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:50.800 like what is that that your clients are like, press. 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:51.240 The go button. 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:54.200 I won't say what you just said not to say, 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:55.640 which is clarity. 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:57.560 Everyone's like that, but something more more. 0:14:57.480 --> 0:14:59.680 Pots I think as more of this goes on, look 0:14:59.720 --> 0:15:02.760 there there's still a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:07.040 looking to make acquisitions, looking to expand businesses. I think 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:10.400 corporates have a decent I mean, we saw Global Payments 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:14.000 last week make a very nice acquisition, and so we're 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:17.000 seeing some of that still go on in today's market. 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:22.280 I think we will continue to see those non tariff 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:26.920 related businesses continue to make acquisitions. The headlines our M 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:29.800 and A is down, and that is factually correct, but 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:33.760 it is still we are still seeing and feeling conversations 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:37.040 going on in a lot of different industries, which I 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:38.800 don't think it's going to take a lot to bring 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:43.280 those deals to completion and continue to build some momentum 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:44.680 into the M and A markets. I think they are 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:47.240 going to be certain industries we won't see things happen 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:49.560 for six months to a year or maybe longer, but 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:54.000 I don't know that that's going to impact the whole 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:56.680 M and A market like it did in during COVID, 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:58.720 or it did in twenty twenty three right after the 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:01.120 banks filed, or it did out in the Great Recession. 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:03.560 I think we're in a different market and we're feeling 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:08.880 different things right now. Again, we've seen transactions getting get 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:11.280 announced even last week during all the noise that was 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:12.760 going on about. 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:14.920 The IPO market. Let's look at one stub hub. You 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:16.800 guys are named a co manager on that deal. That 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:18.240 seems like a deal that would walk out the door. 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:20.720 Give us talk to us about stuff up as just 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:22.320 emblematic of what's happening in the IO. 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:24.760 I think you need in the IPO market to really 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:27.160 take off. That's where you really need confidence and you 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.680 need consistency. There are a couple of insurance deals that 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.200 we hope to get announced shortly that we think would 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:36.080 be another area that we could see the I P 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:38.800 O markets start to pick up. But it's still very 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:41.920 tough to test the markets right now with the fear 0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:44.720 that you know, something in the middle of your your 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.640 your issue, your issuance day, would would hurt creater the stock. 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:50.720 So there's a lot there on the siland is there 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:52.400 a lot there ready to go? Stub Hub is a 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:55.800 good example of something that may go could go. I 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:57.479 don't have no even. 0:16:57.320 --> 0:16:59.120 Maybe going could be going for how long. 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:05.040 Now, But there are industries that are not going to 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:07.480 be impacted like this that I think you will see 0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:10.040 as soon as there's a little more stability in the market, 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:12.800 tests the markets and bring the markets out all. 0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:14.560 Right, Ted, really appreciate it. Thank you for coming in. 0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:16.879 Also great to see you, Ted Swimmer, head of Capital 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:20.240 Markets and Advisory at Citizens Bank, joining us in capital markets, 0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:22.800 IPO private, all the good stuff. 0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:28.080 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:31.199 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:34.560 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:37.720 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:39.720 If you listen to this programming, know Alex and I 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:41.399 really like to stay on top of the commercial real 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.080 estate business, certainly one of the businesses that was impacted 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:49.000 dramatically by COVID and in denounce long long recovery. Here 0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.399 now in the midst of higher interest rates. Today we're 0:17:51.440 --> 0:17:54.480 going to check out with Ben Miller, CEO of fund Rise, 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:58.280 joining us Washington, DC via zoom. Ben, I think when 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:00.199 you look at the stock market, the bond mark, at 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:01.240 the commodity markets. 0:18:01.480 --> 0:18:01.920 You know, the. 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:07.120 Common word is probably just uncertainty out there, volatility out there. 0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:09.360 How about the commercial real estate market? What's the last 0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:11.240 three months been in that space? 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:15.239 The irony for real estate is bad news is good 0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:18.480 news because interest rates have been higher for longer, for 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:21.280 the last few years, that's been weighing on real estate, 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:25.080 especially commercial real estate, and so anything that brings down 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.600