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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: With a very short schedule left on Capitol Hill, and

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Speaker 2: that's where we're going to start our conversation as we

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Speaker 2: prepare to look abroad here on peace talks involving Ukraine

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 3: We'll do that with Heather Conley in just a moment.

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Speaker 2: She's with us in studio today from the American Enterprise Institute.

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Speaker 2: Only five working days left this year, though, if you're

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Speaker 2: a member of Congress, and of course there's something that's

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Speaker 2: being called a cliff at the end of this month.

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Speaker 2: That's when Obamacare enhanced Obamacare subsidies put in place during

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Speaker 2: COVID are set to expire. The very matter that led

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Speaker 2: to the longest shutdown in government history has still not

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Speaker 2: been result. They are set to expire at the end

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Speaker 2: of this month. And if you talk to anybody who

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Speaker 2: knows what's happening in Washington, they will tell you we're

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Speaker 2: going over the cliff. That will, not, however, stop lawmakers

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Speaker 2: from taking a couple of swings at the ball. There

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Speaker 2: will be voting this week, more realistic voting when it

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Speaker 2: comes to the NDAA, the National Defense Authorization Act that's

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Speaker 2: passed the House already in all three thousand pages, are

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Speaker 2: set to pass the Senate at some point this week.

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Speaker 2: Senate will also clear a package of about one hundred

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Speaker 2: nominees and might do some individual voting on some of

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Speaker 2: the other nominations coming from the Trump White House. It's

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Speaker 2: what's happening in the House of Representatives that's going to

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Speaker 2: be interesting here because remember Speaker Johnson promised to vote

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Speaker 2: on a Republican healthcare package. It emerged on Friday night

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Speaker 2: as we were all heading home for a very chilly weekend.

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Speaker 2: There may also be a separate vote on a bipartisan

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Speaker 2: plan that would help to extend the Obamacare subsidies. Speaker

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Speaker 2: Johnson speaking about this at the end of last week.

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Speaker 4: Listen, when the Democrats talk about healthcare affordability, okay, this

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Speaker 4: catchphrase that they have, they are talking about one thing

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Speaker 4: and one thing only. They are talking about continuing handouts

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Speaker 4: to big insurance companies they want to They do not

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Speaker 4: want They have no ideas, they have no desire to

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Speaker 4: fix the broken system they created. They just want to

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Speaker 4: subsidize it. And subsidy is a big word. It means

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Speaker 4: they're taking tax payer dollars and funding a broken system.

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Speaker 2: I guess subsidy is a big word even here at Bloomberg,

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Speaker 2: at least the weight that it carries.

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Speaker 3: Ask Eric Watson.

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Speaker 2: He's been covering this on the daily since before the

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Speaker 2: government shut down, having had the same conversation every day

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Speaker 2: and without a solution in sight. We bring him in now,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Congressional reporter live from Capitol Hill. Eric, is there

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Speaker 2: any chance at lawmakers saving this or the cliff is

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Speaker 2: the cliff and we're going over it right.

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Speaker 5: I don't think we'll ce Obamacare substies extended before the

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Speaker 5: end of the year. There's still a small chance. I'm

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Speaker 5: monitoring that something comes together. In January. We're watching his

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Speaker 5: House Moderate Repablo, So we're trying to get this amendment

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Speaker 5: vote on their sort of bipartisan plan to extend Obamacare

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Speaker 5: either one or two years, depending on the version that

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Speaker 5: we see.

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Speaker 3: We get to see that version. If they don't get

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Speaker 3: a vote.

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Speaker 5: If that vote fails, there's still the option for them

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Speaker 5: to sign on to a discharge petition. This is a

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Speaker 5: way of forcing a vote on the House floor put

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Speaker 5: forward by Democrats. Democrats only need a handful of signatories

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Speaker 5: and then that can start a clock where we come

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Speaker 5: back in January and see a vote. Now, as you notice, already,

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Speaker 5: people will have seen their Obamacare premiums go up, but

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Speaker 5: there's a chance that you know, that same bill could

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Speaker 5: extend the opening rom up period. You'll still see people

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Speaker 5: drop off or lose their insurance, but there is potentially

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Speaker 5: a chance. But you know, the Senate is going to

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Speaker 5: look to go out of town on Thursday. This runway

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Speaker 5: has already greased for them to leave, and as you mentioned,

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Speaker 5: the National Defense Bill is on the on the docket.

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Speaker 5: So I just don't see this. My bet would be that,

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Speaker 5: you know, I'm pretty sure Betty will not be extended

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Speaker 5: before the end of the year.

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Speaker 2: Now, this is what the end of the year looks

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Speaker 2: like on Capitol Hill, Eric, not a lot. It seems

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Speaker 2: we'll get done here. But I'm compared about what you

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Speaker 2: just mentioned, because if this Republican plan in the House

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Speaker 2: does not pass with the support of moderates. Will the

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Speaker 2: moderates then turn to that Democratic discharge petition. It's got

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fourteen signatures on it, Eric, it wouldn't

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Speaker 2: take that many to force this to the floor.

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Speaker 5: That's right, And the discharge position is a really gained steam.

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Speaker 5: This is a very rare you know, it's an affront

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Speaker 5: to the authority of the speaker, but we've seen them

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Speaker 5: really to gain steam here in the House in the

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Speaker 5: last couple of months. That's what you forced this vote

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Speaker 5: basically on the Epstein file release. We are facing a

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Speaker 5: Friday deadline. We'll see all of those Epstein files. You know,

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Speaker 5: there are other discharge visions active on stopping members from

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Speaker 5: trading stocks. For example, one actually succeeded in protecting federal

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Speaker 5: worker union rights in the House passed that bill and

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Speaker 5: overwhelming basis. It's just kind of sitting in the Senate,

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Speaker 5: but still is a very symbolic move in a front

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Speaker 5: of the speaker. So there's a chance that that could

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Speaker 5: actually happen and Democrats would be able to get a

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Speaker 5: vote on that in January.

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Speaker 2: I'm just curious about war powers. Eric Wilier with US.

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Speaker 2: We talked last week with Jim McGovern he's got a

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Speaker 2: Warpowers Act that's supposed to ripen this week. Now we

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Speaker 2: see Senator Reuben Diego offering a war powers resolution, all

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Speaker 2: with their eyes of course, on what's happening in Venezuela.

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Speaker 3: Or any of these going anywhere.

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Speaker 5: I think the real deciding factor there will be if

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Speaker 5: we have a land invasion. Trump has many times said

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Speaker 5: that there's going to be land activity in Venezuela, potentially

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Speaker 5: even Colombia somewhere. If that happens, Schumer is ready to

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Speaker 5: launch a real, you know, effort to do a war

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Speaker 5: powers rating of the president. I think it'll get some support.

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Speaker 5: I think there's now a lot of appetite in either

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Speaker 5: party for a land war in venezue We'll see if

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Speaker 5: the President can make his case. But interestingly, the NBA,

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Speaker 5: the National Defense Bill, does the repeal authorizations that have

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Speaker 5: lingered since the Iraq War and before that have been

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Speaker 5: used to justify these sorts of activities. So that would

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Speaker 5: sort of create an interesting legal limbo for anyone going in.

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Speaker 5: You know, the NBA is very interesting bill. There's an

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Speaker 5: outbound investment provision in there that really affects, you know,

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Speaker 5: US investors trying to invest into China, it expands to

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Speaker 5: Russia other countries. You know, when this bill, which is

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Speaker 5: likely going to pass for the end of the week

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Speaker 5: of the Senate, comes into law, there's a different landscape

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Speaker 5: for those investors, as well as some changes to to

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Speaker 5: pharmaceutical supply chains. The biosocure actor is in there, so

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Speaker 5: this is something that you know enormally to think about

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Speaker 5: it in terms of defense contractors. This will be important

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Speaker 5: bill for the wider investor community. If this gets into law.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's really important and it never gets enough coverage.

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Speaker 2: Eric Friday, is it right? We're gonna hear a lot

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Speaker 2: of references to flyout day and jet fumes this week.

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Speaker 2: Everybody's gone on Friday, no matter what happens with these bills.

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Speaker 5: That's what I'm thinking. You know, the House added Friday

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Speaker 5: as a vote a day when they were going to

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Speaker 5: heavy criticism from their own party first keeping away from

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Speaker 5: DC for three weeks. They may even leave before Friday

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Speaker 5: if things are looking too tumultuous for the speaker.

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Speaker 2: I'm so not surprised to hear that, Eric, Thank you.

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Speaker 2: I hope that means your weekend starts earlier too. Eric Watson,

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Speaker 2: I don't, by the way, I think it works that way.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Congressional Reporter. There's your live update. So we're starting

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Speaker 2: this week. We've got five days without exactly knowing what

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Speaker 2: in the world is going to happen. Yet everyone seems

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Speaker 2: to know that everything we just talked about is going

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Speaker 2: to fail.

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Speaker 3: So twenty twenty five in Washington.

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Speaker 2: By the way, that NDAA, the National Defense Authorization Act,

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Speaker 2: has four hundred million dollars in it ear marked for Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: No one's talking about that either, but there would be

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Speaker 2: some at least tacit support, whether that comes in the

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Speaker 2: form of intelligence or military support coming from the United States,

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Speaker 2: even with this passing here today and peace talks underway

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Speaker 2: that we want to talk about now with Heather Conley.

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Speaker 2: This was day two in Berlin. President Zelenski at the table,

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Speaker 2: Jared Kushner, the President's son in law, Special Envoy Steve Whitkoff,

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Speaker 2: trying to advance the ball here and what the President

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Speaker 2: would love to call a Christmas peace deal. Not a

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Speaker 2: lot of people think that will happen, but there has

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Speaker 2: been a bit more optimism surrounding this most recent stage

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Speaker 2: than we have heard recently. Heather Conley is non resident

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Speaker 2: Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, former Deputy Assistant

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Speaker 2: Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and Eurasian

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Speaker 2: Affairs Hither It's great to have you back as part

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Speaker 2: of our conversation on Bloomberg. Pretty remarkable headlines coming out

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Speaker 2: of Berlin. Now, President Zelenski says, I'll give up on

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Speaker 2: the quest to join NATO as well. We haven't seen

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Speaker 2: really a single concession by the Russian sides with something

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Speaker 2: like this, though, get the gears turning toward peace.

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Speaker 3: Well, so I think you're right.

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Speaker 6: We are seeing real progress coming out of these two

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Speaker 6: days of talks in Berlin. There have been Ukrainian concessions,

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Speaker 6: but I would put them in quotation marks. NATO membership

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Speaker 6: was something that was always going to be a very

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Speaker 6: long term cross sure. But what Ukrainians are asking for

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Speaker 6: is NATO like Article five security guarantees, and that is

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Speaker 6: one of the main sticking points for these conversations. What

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Speaker 6: security guarantees can the United States and Europe give to

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Speaker 6: Ukraine when Russia violates this peace deal? That, and of

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Speaker 6: course territorial concessions will the Ukrainians approve of turning over

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Speaker 6: land that they currently defend in the Dunboss. Those are

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Speaker 6: really the two key sticking.

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Speaker 3: Points, and I guess three when you add NATO. So

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Speaker 3: let's pick through them.

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Speaker 2: To your point, NATO is an ambition that was not

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Speaker 2: something that was about to happen and wouldn't be unlocked

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Speaker 2: by a peace deal. So let's focus on the other

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Speaker 2: two here, because I guess Zelenski is kind of warming

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Speaker 2: up to the idea of maybe joining the EU if

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Speaker 2: not NATO, but without NATO, there's still an Article five

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Speaker 2: type of guarantee here that's being talked about, and that

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Speaker 2: came as well from Witkoff and Kushner. Right, This wasn't

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Speaker 2: just Zelenski putting this forward. The United States suggested this

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Speaker 2: without the involvement of Europe.

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Speaker 3: But it would require European troops, would it not.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean I think there certainly the US would

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Speaker 6: have to have those security guarantees. There's some rumors coming

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Speaker 6: out of Berlin that the Administration would submit these security

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Speaker 6: guarantees for Senate ratification, almost like a treaty like we

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Speaker 6: would do to mend the NATO treaty.

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Speaker 3: That would be important.

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Speaker 6: But yes, Europe has to be part of this as well,

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Speaker 6: and Ukrainians have negotiated bilateral security guarantees with those countries.

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Speaker 6: But the question, Joe, is when they're tested, will we

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Speaker 6: apply military power against Russian forces again when they violate

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Speaker 6: this peace deal? And that is the question.

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Speaker 2: I think that was framed as in the event of

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Speaker 2: a sustained attack in the initial language we saw, So

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Speaker 2: a cruise missile into an apartment building wouldn't.

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Speaker 6: Qualify, right, But again, this sustainment maybe through hybrid activities,

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Speaker 6: meaning that they would seize the territory. It wouldn't be

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Speaker 6: through military means, but they would do it through hybrid

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Speaker 6: warfare that wouldn't trigger it. So huge question marks.

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Speaker 2: All right, well, let's talk territory then, because you freeze

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Speaker 2: the lines on the dune, boss, And I think Zelenski

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Speaker 2: suggested maybe that he puts this to a vote, right,

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Speaker 2: let's actually have the people who live their vote on this.

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Speaker 2: I'm guessing that, based on his history of behavior, Vladimir

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Speaker 2: wouldn't care either way.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, this is where I actually do think Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 6: does care, because it's now in the Russian constitution that

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Speaker 6: these four Ukrainian territories are rational motherland exactly, and this

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Speaker 6: is the restoration of Russia's historic lands. But this would

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Speaker 6: be Ukraine giving up territory it currently defends. And this

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Speaker 6: territory is part of its so called fortress belt, which

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Speaker 6: is its defensive line. So without those lines, Ukraine is

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Speaker 6: going to have a very hard time being able to

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Speaker 6: reinforce its military across its border. So in some ways

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Speaker 6: it would render it in part defenses.

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Speaker 2: This is why we were talking about a potential demilitarized

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Speaker 2: zone in that area, right, is that a more realistic approach?

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Speaker 6: Well, again it gets back to the who protects this

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Speaker 6: demilitarized zone. Again, it's important to remember we've been to

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Speaker 6: this movie before when the first annexation and incursion into

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Speaker 6: Ukraine there was an OSC monitoring force and that ceasefire

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Speaker 6: was violated repeatedly even though it was monitored. And this

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Speaker 6: is where again Russian hybrid tactics really we're trying to

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Speaker 6: change the status on the ground really interesting.

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Speaker 2: So we've talked through some of the particulars that are

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Speaker 2: at the table here and I guess they have concluded.

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Speaker 2: This is a three hour session today in Berlin. It

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Speaker 2: was about five hours yesterday. I'm assuming everybody flies home now,

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Speaker 2: and President z Lanskyshia would love an invitation here.

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Speaker 3: To the US.

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Speaker 2: But we've still left the Europeans out of this conversation

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Speaker 2: as well. The Russians haven't given much in the way

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Speaker 2: of encouraging remarks about this. So are we just spinning

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Speaker 2: our wheels until everyone's in the same room.

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Speaker 6: Well, I think the Europeans are feeling better the fact

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Speaker 6: that these conversations were held in Berlin and that they

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Speaker 6: actually were at the table. Now the incredible visual is

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Speaker 6: the US is on one side Europe and the Ukrainians

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Speaker 6: on the other side, that we are negotiating with our

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Speaker 6: European partners.

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Speaker 3: I thank you exactly.

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Speaker 6: I think this plan now, whatever comes out, is going

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Speaker 6: to have to be brief to the Russians. I assume

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Speaker 6: that Special Envoy wood Cough has already been keeping the

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Speaker 6: Russians pretty well informed. They may not accept some of

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Speaker 6: these changes. And you're absolutely right. If the Ukrainian government

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Speaker 6: does decide to make some territorial concessions, have to change

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Speaker 6: their constitution.

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Speaker 3: To remove NATO.

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Speaker 6: You're talking about a referendum, You're talking about an election.

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Speaker 6: That President Zelenski did just say over the weekend. That

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Speaker 6: potentially could happen in sixty to ninety days after a

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Speaker 6: peace deal. So it could be a lot of changes,

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Speaker 6: or we could be quite stalled.

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Speaker 2: Is there a single Russian concession that you could see

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Speaker 2: coming out of this?

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Speaker 3: No, Well, my god, how do you find peace in

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Speaker 3: that world?

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Speaker 6: So you cave, you capitulate to the Russian position, and

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Speaker 6: that has it's absolutely.

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Speaker 2: Is that sustainable if you're framed as capitulating.

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Speaker 3: It's not sustainable.

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Speaker 6: It's not sustainable war in Ukraine, it's not sustainable in Europe.

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Speaker 6: It's not sustainable for the United States and our security interest.

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Speaker 6: This is why the British head of MI six just

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Speaker 6: came out with a devastating speech saying we're already in

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Speaker 6: war with Russia. The hybrid activity. NATO Secretary General route

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Speaker 6: To last week said in five years there will be war.

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Speaker 6: So you hear us preparing for this, yet we're talking

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Speaker 6: about appeasing the aggressor. It is extraordinary. It does feel

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Speaker 6: like nineteen thirty eight. Well that's a heck of a statement.

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Speaker 2: Here will it feel like nineteen thirty eight for the

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Speaker 2: next three years and two months? To what extent is

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Speaker 2: the administration keeping this Russian dream alive.

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Speaker 3: So it is maybe a putent dream is a better

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Speaker 3: way of pay well.

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Speaker 6: Again, this is where last week's National security strategy did

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Speaker 6: not articulate who our adversaries are Russia, China, North Korea, AARAN.

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Speaker 6: It spoke about a focus on the Western hemisphere. It

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Speaker 6: talked about securing economic and strategic stability. We are closing

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Speaker 6: our eyes to this, and if in fact the United

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Speaker 6: States provides security guarantees, we are inserting ourselves in this.

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Speaker 6: So this is a moment for clarity of knowing who

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Speaker 6: the aggressor is, who is challenging the United States and

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Speaker 6: our European partners, and preparing for menial conflict.

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Speaker 2: Just a minute ago, here Heather, what is China learning

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Speaker 2: as it watches the way we work with Ukraine, keeping

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Speaker 2: Taiwan in mind.

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Speaker 6: I think it is learning that we will appease for

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Speaker 6: some sort of magical economic stability that you have. You

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Speaker 6: know you don't have that stability. It is emboldening those

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Speaker 6: who believe that they can snatch territory and that if

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Speaker 6: there's economic disturbance that they will negotiate and get that stability.

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Speaker 6: It's a terrible message to America's adversaries.

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Speaker 2: Well, it really is, is that because you think that

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is more interested in normalizing economic ties with

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Speaker 2: Russia when you talk about that economic stability imaginary or not,

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Speaker 2: how does he find it here?

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Speaker 6: Well, I think what is elusive is that there is

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Speaker 6: no momentary deal that will stick. And I think this

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Speaker 6: is what the White House is learning. With all the

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Speaker 6: deals that have been negotiated, they're starting to fall apart

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Speaker 6: because it's not just that moment, it's creating the structure

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Speaker 6: to her aggression. To be strong and send a clear

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Speaker 6: message to our adversaries, we are strong with our allies

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Speaker 6: and partners. Don't violate international law.

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Speaker 2: This is a very delicate moment that we're in. Heather,

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Speaker 2: I'm really glad that you could join us to talk

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Speaker 2: about it once again. That's Heather Conley from the American

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Speaker 2: Enterprise Institute. Last time she joined us, we said we

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Speaker 2: need to get her back.

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Speaker 3: And this is why I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington.

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Speaker 2: We'll keep the bead on the effort to find peace

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Speaker 2: in Ukraine as we wait for a readout from the

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Speaker 2: White House. We've not seen one on an official piece

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Speaker 2: of paper or on truth social and that might emerge

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Speaker 2: a bit later today, Republican Congressman Troy Downing of Montana

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Speaker 2: joins us next as we turn back to healthcare on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much

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Speaker 3: more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Here on the Monday edition of Balance of Power on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. We thank you for joining us

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Speaker 2: here with big questions about what could be accomplished this

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Speaker 2: week on Capitol Hill with five working days left. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: we're almost there at the end of the year. In fact,

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Speaker 2: it's just a couple of weeks until the enhanced Obamacare

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Speaker 2: subsidies from the COVID era are going to expire, and

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Speaker 2: we've been talking about this on the daily. It looks

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Speaker 2: like there could be some really interesting maneuvers on Capitol

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Speaker 2: Hill directed towards your healthcare in the coming days, whether

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Speaker 2: it's through discharge, petition or otherwise, we're going to get

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Speaker 2: down to some voting. As we mentioned the NDAA in

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Speaker 2: the Senate, that was likely just in the next couple

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Speaker 2: of days, and that'll pass.

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Speaker 3: That's the must pass bill.

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Speaker 2: Healthcare is another matter, and glad to be joined by

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Speaker 2: Troy Downing, the Republican Congressman from Montana second District, is

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Speaker 2: with us here in studio today on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of you to come by, and I appreciate

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Speaker 2: it very much because there are a lot of questions

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Speaker 2: about what's going to get done here and you probably

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Speaker 2: have some of these questions too. It could be the

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Speaker 2: publican led bill that was released late last week.

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Speaker 3: We'll get a vote.

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Speaker 2: There also could be other votes though, in terms of

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Speaker 2: a discharge petition, there was another extension to the ACA

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Speaker 2: that at one point was promised to bring to a

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Speaker 2: floor vote. Now it might not happen. Do you have

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Speaker 2: a clear view of what this week will look like.

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Speaker 3: Well, here's the thing with those discharged positions.

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Speaker 7: Actually, let's just take a step back on these enhanced

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Speaker 7: premium tax credits. Because a lot of the rhetoric that

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Speaker 7: we see on social media from headlines from people pushing

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Speaker 7: back is we have to do something or premiums are

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Speaker 7: going up. Premiums already went up. The open enrollment period

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Speaker 7: is over. I mean that's already baked in. For those

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Speaker 7: who don't understand how this works. The payers, the insurance companies,

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Speaker 7: they file with their states months before the open and

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Speaker 7: enrollment period, it gets approved, it gets filed with CMS,

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Speaker 7: the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and then comes

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Speaker 7: the open enrollment period where you pick your policy for

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Speaker 7: the next policy year starting January first.

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Speaker 3: That's over.

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Speaker 7: And so this whole argument about if we don't do

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Speaker 7: something by the thirty first, then suddenly premium was going

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Speaker 7: to go up. Well, I'm going to tell you if

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Speaker 7: the enhanced Premium tax credits, if the Obama Care tax

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Speaker 7: credits expire, rates have gone up, if they get extended,

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Speaker 7: rates have gone up. It's the same thing no matter what.

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Speaker 7: But here's the thing the folks aren't talking about is

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Speaker 7: the chaos.

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Speaker 3: So they wouldn't, just.

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Speaker 2: To be clear before you go on, they wouldn't come

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Speaker 2: back down through some sort of retroactive language and legislation.

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Speaker 3: Well, so let's just think.

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Speaker 7: About what would happen to have happen, what would have

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Speaker 7: to happen mechanically, yes, is first of all, you'd have

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Speaker 7: to have the payers, the insurance companies refile their rates.

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Speaker 7: So let's say we get into that, you know, by February,

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Speaker 7: so those get reviewed, those get filed, So then you

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Speaker 7: have to have another open enrollment period, and that's going

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Speaker 7: to create confusion in the marketplace because people who pay

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Speaker 7: a portion of their small group or large group there,

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Speaker 7: their employers are going to think, well, hey, I'm going

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Speaker 7: to get a discount too, But no, this only affects

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Speaker 7: the individual market, so it's a small percentage.

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Speaker 3: So then you have to have an open enrollment period.

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Speaker 7: Let's say that's you know, March or April or whenever

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Speaker 7: they can do that. So then do you make it

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Speaker 7: expost facto going back to January first?

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Speaker 3: Do you have it going forward?

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Speaker 7: But it creates confusion in the market and I'm not

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Speaker 7: exactly sure how.

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Speaker 3: We would deal with that mechanically.

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Speaker 7: But then let's look at what happens if we just

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Speaker 7: extend the tax credits. Let's say we extend them for

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Speaker 7: two years. Well, then everybody refiles next spring, we have

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Speaker 7: another open enrollment period November December, and that goes into

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Speaker 7: the twenty twenty seven policy year, which you know will

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Speaker 7: probably still be a little bit of an increase because

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Speaker 7: here's one thing that the Republicans and the Democrats all

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Speaker 7: agree on right now is ACA, the Affordable Payact. Obamacare

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Speaker 7: has been a complete failure, and rates have gone up

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Speaker 7: independent of these tax credits. They're going up no matter what,

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Speaker 7: because the cost of health care has gone up. And

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Speaker 7: what's happened is the cost of health care goes up.

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Speaker 7: Of course, the cost of health insurance goes up. Yes,

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Speaker 7: And when that happens, people start coming off and they

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Speaker 7: find alternatives. Either they go uninsured or they find an

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Speaker 7: alternative like a health sharing ministry or some other thing.

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Speaker 7: And it's not the healthy people. I mean, it's not

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Speaker 7: the sick people to come up. It's the healthy people.

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Speaker 7: So the younger, healthier people come off, and that creates

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Speaker 7: this phenomenon called adverse selection. So then you've concentrated the

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Speaker 7: risk losses go higher, and the next premium year, premiums

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Speaker 7: go higher, and that creates.

439
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 2: A brutal and our audience should know you were state

440
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 2: auditor overseeing matter in the state of montanes so you

441
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 2: have a unique understanding of all of this stuff. KFF

442
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 2: says the expiration would more than double on average what

443
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:36,120
Speaker 2: people are paying annually. President Trump would say, keying off

444
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 2: of what you just described, then, so send people the

445
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:43,160
Speaker 2: money instead of the insurance companies. But don't people lose

446
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 2: power by having essentially an individual barter with this massive

447
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 2: insurance company.

448
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 3: How does that keep reaving?

449
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,639
Speaker 7: Well, well, first of all, let's just collect correct the

450
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 7: record on one thing is the actual rates that have

451
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 7: gone up in just the individual market, so just a

452
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,679
Speaker 7: small fraction of the overall market on average, well in

453
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 7: Montana on average is about twenty two percent. And the

454
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 7: Enhanced Premium Tax credit, the Obama Care tax bregit, Yeah,

455
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 7: that's that's single digits of that, so it is it

456
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:11,959
Speaker 7: does have an effect, but the rates are going up

457
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,239
Speaker 7: with or without that. So first of all, just make

458
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 7: sure that the people understand that. And then in terms

459
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 7: of the healthcare savings accounts that the president's talking about personally,

460
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 7: I think there's meat on the bone there, but they're

461
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:27,960
Speaker 7: not going to be in this bill. They're not going

462
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:29,960
Speaker 7: to be in this bill, unfortunately. But this is something

463
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 7: that we need to the.

464
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 3: Bil caacity plan. It's something that you would warm up, well.

465
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,679
Speaker 7: I think there's meat on the bone here for a

466
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 7: very simple reason. One of the issues that we have

467
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 7: is we've created so much distance between the doctor and

468
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,479
Speaker 7: the patient. There's so much in between there. And what

469
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 7: an HSA does is you've got a finite amount of

470
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,439
Speaker 7: money for paying for your out of pocket expenses, for

471
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 7: your your your medical expenses, and it can only be

472
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,400
Speaker 7: used for that. And so now you're saying, I've got

473
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 7: five thousand dollars in there, or to however much that

474
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 7: money is, and you're talking your doctor and you're saying, well,

475
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 7: how much does this test cost?

476
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 3: Well, do I really need that?

477
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 7: Or The other thing is is right now, nobody is

478
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 7: incentivized to look for actual pricing. So if I talk

479
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 7: to doctor one and I say this is going to cost,

480
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 7: you know, five hundred bucks, and doctor two says a

481
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 7: thousand bucks, you know, it starts to put that in

482
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 7: there because the problem right now is somebody else is

483
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 7: going to pay for it. So there's no incentive for

484
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 7: somebody to look at what the actual cost they're being

485
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 7: charged is because you know that your insurance company is

486
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 7: going to pay it, and that would be the individual

487
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 7: doing that. So the HSA, yeah, with the HSA you.

488
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 7: It puts more power if we start to expand that.

489
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 7: It puts more power into the patient in having that

490
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 7: conversation with their doctor and actually asking, you know, because

491
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 7: now it affects them directly, asking what the prices are,

492
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 7: what the test should be, what the expenses of the

493
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 7: So it brings that in. I just think about, you know,

494
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 7: when I was growing up, lived in a single income family,

495
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 7: worked in a grocery store, so not you know, not

496
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 7: a family of high means.

497
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:57,640
Speaker 3: And when I'd come out of the doctor, my mom

498
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 3: would go.

499
00:23:58,000 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 7: Up to the front desk and she'd get out her

500
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 7: check book, can write a check. And that's how we

501
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 7: did it because there was that doctor patient relationship. And

502
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 7: I think we've come so far away from that and

503
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,879
Speaker 7: put so much money into the system that we've seen

504
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 7: the underlying care cost of health care going up economics

505
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 7: one on one, you put money into a system, things

506
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 7: get more expensive and we've seen that and that creates that.

507
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 3: Vicious cycle that we talked about with the adverse selection.

508
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 2: Well, and you know, a conversation like this gives somebody

509
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 2: a popsicle headachecause.

510
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 3: It's complicated stuff.

511
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: It is trying to figure out well, what part of

512
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,239
Speaker 2: this policy is going to help me? And that's what

513
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 2: makes it hard politically because it is hard to because

514
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 2: you have to communicate with this, it is hard to explain.

515
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 2: So let's say, all right, so the messaging system breaks

516
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 2: down here and we're looking at a government funding deadline

517
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 2: at the end of January.

518
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,679
Speaker 3: I'm not even going to ask you, are you worried?

519
00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 1: You know?

520
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 7: I think you know, when we had to shut down

521
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 7: that forty three day shutdown, it was horrible.

522
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,879
Speaker 3: Nobody wins. Everybody well, which side one did the Republicans win?

523
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 3: To the dead? We have ay where memories got. Nobody

524
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 3: wins in a shutdown.

525
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,199
Speaker 7: But here's one thing that I will say is, at

526
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 7: least on my side of the aisle, the Republican conference

527
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 7: really stuck together and said, Okay, we're not going to

528
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 7: negotiate this craziness. They're bringing in all these red hairing

529
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 7: when this is really a simple short term extension of

530
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 7: current policies so that we get through the appropriation.

531
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:13,879
Speaker 3: Is the scar.

532
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 2: Tissue from that experience enough to keep us from doing

533
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 2: it again?

534
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 3: You know, I can be hopeful. I really think it is.

535
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 3: I think that's going to come into play.

536
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 7: When I know that the resolve on the Republican side

537
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 7: is pretty strong, and I think that the Democrats learned

538
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 7: that that is not a winning prospect.

539
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 3: So I'm hoping that commer heads come.

540
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 7: To the table and prevail and we start to get

541
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 7: more of these appropriations bills through. So obviously we just

542
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 7: had the National Defense Authorization Act that's going to the Senate.

543
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 7: Hopefully that moves through. Is there. We're slowly ticking away

544
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,439
Speaker 7: at these. We'd all be happier if it went faster.

545
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 7: But the frustrating thing for me is that when these

546
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,880
Speaker 7: appropriations bills come out of committee, you got the four corners,

547
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 7: they start out bipartisan, it came out of a committee

548
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 7: with the ranking member and the chair, you know, both

549
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,400
Speaker 7: the Senate and the House side. So you've already got

550
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 7: a by part and spending bill. And it's just frustrating

551
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,199
Speaker 7: that we can't all rally around this. Get back is

552
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 7: Speaker Johnson says, the muscle memory of actually appropriating and

553
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 7: going through that process rather than continuing crs and omnibus

554
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 7: spending bills.

555
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 3: And I think there's a huge desire to get.

556
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 7: Back to that, and I am so hopeful that we

557
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:21,239
Speaker 7: can get back to that, and it may not be

558
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 7: this cycle, maybe the next cycle, but soon because the

559
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 7: American people want that, the people that voted us into

560
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 7: office want that. We all want to get back to

561
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 7: that and get back to actually doing.

562
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 3: Our jobs of regular order.

563
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:35,719
Speaker 2: Well, when we get to regular order, come back, we'll

564
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 2: do a special together exactly what we have that back

565
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 2: with us as Troy Downey, Republican from Montana on a

566
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 2: very important week here on Capitol Hill, we thank you,

567
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 2: Congressman for the insights as we assemble our political panel.

568
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Schanzo join us

569
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 2: now with their insights on everything we just talked about.

570
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 2: And it's hard to get away from the healthcare story,

571
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 2: so we'll start right there, Rick. Republicans have a very

572
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 2: interesting looking schedule here in the House over the course

573
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 2: of the week. Will we see voting on all the

574
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 2: various forms of legislation that we just talked about, and

575
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 2: will this come down to a discharge petition?

576
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 8: Well, if it comes down to a discharge petition, it

577
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 8: just depends upon which discharge petition they're going to carry,

578
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 8: because all of these are slightly different in including the

579
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,919
Speaker 8: House bills. I mean, part of the biggest problem we

580
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 8: have is the Republican Party has not focused on a

581
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 8: solution set that they can get on.

582
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 3: Board with as a party.

583
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 8: And so we have four different bills right now in

584
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 8: the House Representatives to fix the system right, and yet

585
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 8: none of them are a comprehensive fix. And I think

586
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 8: the Congressman was right saying, look, they're huge advantages to

587
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 8: HSA's but they don't really fix the whole problem.

588
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:49,399
Speaker 3: And so.

589
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 8: Are you going to tinker with it and try to

590
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 8: make it a little bit better while at the same

591
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 8: time tightening your belt on things like these subsidies. I'd

592
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 8: be surprised because Congress by nature doesn't like the titan.

593
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 3: It's bell.

594
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,360
Speaker 8: It is a spending machine. It hasn't gotten smaller. Government

595
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 8: has gotten bigger with this Republican Congress, and so the

596
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 8: fact that they're going to pass something that actually makes

597
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 8: it smaller would be I think, great, but unlikely.

598
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 2: So we're going over the cliff, Jenie is what it

599
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 2: sounds like. And based on what the Congressman just said,

600
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 2: don't wait around for a life raft.

601
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 3: Is that how you see it?

602
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 9: Yeah? I believe he said, we've already gone off the cliff.

603
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 9: It's too late. There's nothing that can be done. The

604
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 9: costs are going up. You know, there's so many stunning

605
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:39,959
Speaker 9: things about this, but I would say one of the

606
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 9: most stunning things is that affordability is the biggest issue

607
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 9: domestically right now. Donald Trump is talking over the weekend

608
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 9: in an interview where he's saying he may lose Republicans

609
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 9: may lose the House next year, and yet they are

610
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 9: doing nothing about healthcare because the president would have to

611
00:28:57,880 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 9: lead that charge. And he's absolutely a wall.

612
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 3: Incredible stuff.

613
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, We're like Thelma and Louise.

614
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 2: We're going off the cliff together. Stay with us on

615
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

616
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

617
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

618
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

619
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

620
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

621
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 2: The Peace Process continues involving Ukraine. Good friend of mine

622
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 2: said this morning, you know it's colder in Ukraine than

623
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:46,959
Speaker 2: it is here, remembering that Vladimir Putin is very skilled

624
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 2: and experienced at using cold as a weapon. As we

625
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 2: enter the winter season, that may be in the back

626
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 2: of President Zelenski's mind or the front as peace talks

627
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 2: enter day two in Berlin, because it has been a

628
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 2: story of concessions for President Zelenski and now one of

629
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 2: the big ones giving up Ukraine's bid to join NATO

630
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 2: in return for security guarantees. Enter Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner.

631
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 2: Once again back on a plane. We were asking last weekend,

632
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 2: is it possible Trump and looked like he wasn't going

633
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 2: to go. Could he send his lieutenants to Berlin to

634
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 2: take part in these talks? The word from the Oval

635
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 2: was no, not without some sort of guarantee or a

636
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 2: deal in advance. But sure enough, the President's son in

637
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 2: law and his chief envoy, Steve Whitkoff are indeed as

638
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 2: taking part in a second day of negotiations with Volodimir

639
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: Zelensky in the German capital. And it's where we start

640
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 2: our conversation with our political panel. Rick Davis and Genie

641
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 2: Schanzeno have been watching this march to piece frequently favoring

642
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 2: the Russian side here and there with US now a

643
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor, Rick Davis, Republican strategist partner at Stone

644
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 2: Court Capital, and Genie Schanzano are Democratic analyst democracy visiting

645
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. First it was

646
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 2: Zelensky accepting the idea of maybe freezing borders where they are.

647
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 2: Rick then he said he was prepared to accept presidential elections,

648
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 2: which is something that the President Trump in this case

649
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 2: had been asking for.

650
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 3: Now giving up the bid to join NATO.

651
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 2: Are we at a point where it's just a matter

652
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 2: of when and not how we get to peace in Ukraine?

653
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 8: I'm not sure I'm exactly that enthusiastic for peace at

654
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 8: this stage. Remember, these are all news items coming out

655
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 8: of Berlin between the EU and Zelenski and the US.

656
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 8: The Russians are involved in this discussion at all, and

657
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 8: the Russians put out a statement this morning that said

658
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 8: that the territorial concessions are must that were not putting

659
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 8: up with anything that isn't our deal, and the territorial

660
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 8: concessions really aren't easy for the Ukrainians because their borders

661
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 8: are meshed in their constitution. As you point out, Zelenski

662
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 8: had offered to have a referendum, but part of the

663
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 8: referendum is we've got to have a ceasefire. Russia doesn't

664
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 8: want to agree to a ceasefire because then they can reconstitute

665
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 8: on the Ukrainian side their armed forces. I mean, each

666
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 8: one of these deals has a caveat, and this caveat

667
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 8: with you know, not joining NATO is a bilateral agreement

668
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 8: with the US saying you'll give me kind of Article

669
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 8: five type protection, and a bilateral agreement with the Europeans

670
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 8: to do the same.

671
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 3: So it isn't great for Ukraine.

672
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 8: They got to go shopping if the Russians come across

673
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 8: the border again. But it certainly, you know, tries to

674
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 8: stem the issue of joining NATO.

675
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 2: You know, the president was hoping for a Christmas piece deal, Genie.

676
00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 2: Should he be more or less optimistic about that?

677
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 9: I think, yeah, I don't think much has changed. I

678
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 9: have to say I agree with Rick on this. I

679
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 9: am not feeling I've heard some reports where we're hearing

680
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 9: a lot of optimism. I am not feeling as optimistic.

681
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 9: You know. One of the unconfirmed reports is that the

682
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 9: US delegation is still pushing and this is just one

683
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 9: example Ukraine to give up the eastern gon Bass where

684
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 9: they have defensive lines and are reluctant to give it

685
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 9: up after everything, and you gave the list, Joe of

686
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 9: things they had said that they are willing to negotiate on,

687
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 9: from holding elections to you know, foregoing joining NATO. The

688
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 9: reality is we're hearing the one side of Ukraine's willingness

689
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 9: to give up so many things, to concede so much,

690
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 9: and nothing from Russia except for today saying, you know,

691
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,400
Speaker 9: we will still take the don Bass region by force

692
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 9: if it is not given to us. So I'm not

693
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 9: so certain that we're going to be facing imminent peace here.

694
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 9: And the reality is why are we seeing Ukraine give

695
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:10,280
Speaker 9: up so much? Because they are losing on the battlefield

696
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 9: and it is a really, really difficult situation for them.

697
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 9: They are conscripting people over the age of forty, sending

698
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 9: them to the front lines with absolutely no training. They're

699
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 9: outmaneuvered and outmanned, not just in terms of the number

700
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 9: of people they have, but also in terms of things

701
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 9: now like firepower. So that's why they're forced to concede

702
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 9: and their reliance, of course, is on Europe, and their

703
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 9: reliance is on the US, and the US has been

704
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 9: very clear under Donald Trump that they are sort of

705
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,359
Speaker 9: turning this whole thing over to Europe. So I am

706
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 9: not feeling as optimistic as some people are that we

707
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 9: are on the brink of a piece here.

708
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, it doesn't sound like either of you are

709
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 2: feeling the optimism of Steve Whitcoff today or the president

710
00:34:58,160 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 2: of Finland.

711
00:34:58,760 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 3: Rick.

712
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 2: How about Alexander's do on X we're probably closer to

713
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:05,760
Speaker 2: a peace agreement than we have been at any time

714
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,280
Speaker 2: during these four years.

715
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 3: What's he responding to?

716
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 8: Well, I think that's actually a good line, right. It

717
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 8: doesn't mean he's close to a piece agreement. He's just

718
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 8: further along that he's been since the war started.

719
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 3: And that may be true.

720
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 8: That is, I would concede that the more they talk,

721
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 8: the more they come up with some of these parameters.

722
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 8: More they talk, the more they come up with some

723
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 8: of these ideas around, you know, how to bridge the

724
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 8: gap between the Russians and the Ukrainians. But at the

725
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,320
Speaker 8: end of the day, you're dealing with a counterparty in

726
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 8: Vladimir Putin, who is not honest he's not honorable. He's

727
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 8: cut piece deals in the past that he's thrown in

728
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 8: the garbage. He's running a horrific campaign of annihilation with

729
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 8: his own soldiers, not to mention what he's doing with

730
00:35:56,239 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 8: the Ukrainian civilians. So it's really hard to imagine a

731
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 8: scenario that they get peace without giving everything that Vladimir

732
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 8: Putin wants to Russia. And I don't see anybody at

733
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 8: the position now of saying yes to that deal.

734
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 3: Genie.

735
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,240
Speaker 2: Has Vladimir Putin made a single concession as the invading

736
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 2: force of this war? Have we seen anything that looks

737
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 2: like a concession in these talks?

738
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 9: You know, if you sort of wave your hand before

739
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 9: your eyes, this whole idea of will we be open

740
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 9: to them joining the EU? But of course the EU

741
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 9: is a security is not a security coalition, it is

742
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 9: an economic coalition. So that hardly does anything to protect

743
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 9: Ukraine from another potential Russian invasion in the future. And

744
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 9: you know, this is not just about the Ukraine. It

745
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 9: is about Europe, and it is about the United States

746
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 9: relationship with Europe. You know, I was struck in that

747
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 9: Politico interview Donald Trump did the other day when he

748
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 9: was asked about Europe, he said things like European nations

749
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 9: are decaying, they are weak, And of course this is

750
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 9: reflected by some of the commentary we've heard from people

751
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 9: in the administration and Donald Trump since he took office.

752
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,839
Speaker 9: Then you also look at this National Security document they

753
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 9: put out last week, and it is got a lot

754
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 9: of very very harsh things to say about Europe, much

755
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:25,439
Speaker 9: less so about Russia. So I think Donald Trump would

756
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 9: like nothing more than to turn his focus to the

757
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 9: Western hemisphere, particularly the South America, Latin America, allow Russia

758
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 9: to control its area, Asia, to control its area, and

759
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 9: make nice with deals he can make with the Ladimir Putin.

760
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 9: He is far less committed to this sort of old

761
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 9: style European relationship we've long had, at least since World

762
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 9: War Two, and so I think it is very problematic

763
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 9: for Europe and they are being sidelined. They met five

764
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 9: hours yesterday and three hours today the US and U

765
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 9: who wasn't there, European leaders who have just arrived in

766
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 9: Berlin now and may not even get a face to

767
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 9: face with the US.

768
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:11,760
Speaker 2: Rick, do you think that Donald Trump's interest in economic ties,

769
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 2: normalizing economic ties and investment with Russia is enough for

770
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 2: him to not lose interest and patience here.

771
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 3: When things aren't.

772
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 2: Going well, he tends to say, well, you know what,

773
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 2: then you guys fight it out and we'll just walk away.

774
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 2: And at some point that might happen, unless, of course,

775
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 2: there's the idea of doing business with Moscow.

776
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 3: What do you think?

777
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think the twin pillars are that Russia is

778
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 8: an immense and vast country with very few people and

779
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 8: lots of natural resources, and I think Donald Trump sees

780
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 8: the opportunity there.

781
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:49,799
Speaker 3: Two.

782
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 8: I think he thinks that the only route at this

783
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 8: stage to getting a Nobel Peace Prize is through Kiev,

784
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 8: and so he's he's divided, right, how do I get

785
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 8: my peace prize and tackle all these incredible resources that

786
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 8: might be available to me in a deal with Russia.

787
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 8: So it's a conflict for him, and I do agree.

788
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 8: I said, we've seen him lose interest in this a

789
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 8: couple of times in the course of one year. And

790
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 8: when he loses interest, then there's no interest at all,

791
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 8: because there's there's pretty clear that Europeans on their own

792
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 8: can't conceive of and implement a peace plan. So I

793
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 8: do think that's what got that's what's got everybody worried

794
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:36,439
Speaker 8: is that it comes to a point in time where

795
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,919
Speaker 8: the United States says, you know what, had it can't

796
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 8: really get either side to move the way we want

797
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 8: him to. I've invested a lot of time in my

798
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 8: efforts to do it. So I'm just going to walk

799
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 8: away and let you guys, you know, bang each other's

800
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 8: heads in. And of course that violates the number one

801
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 8: thing that he says all the time about being a

802
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,240
Speaker 8: peace making president is that people are killing themselves, and

803
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:00,120
Speaker 8: you know he doesn't want that to happen. So well,

804
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 8: it's really hard to see the future under Donald Trump

805
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 8: when it comes to something like this big geopolitical fight, even.

806
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 2: Though we've got hundreds of millions of dollars in Ukraine

807
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:14,760
Speaker 2: assistance money in the NDAA, right, Genie, if that gets

808
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 2: through the United States is going to have a pretty

809
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,479
Speaker 2: long road ahead with regard to this war.

810
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 9: Yeah, they will. I mean, you know, you focus just

811
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 9: on Donald Trump and the Trump administration. Of course, their

812
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 9: interest is no longer giving money. They would you be

813
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 9: willing to certainly have Europe pay for anything they hand over.

814
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,879
Speaker 9: They don't want to hand over that money. And that's

815
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 9: very much in keeping with what the President has said

816
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 9: very vocally. I mean, I can't stress enough. I don't

817
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,400
Speaker 9: think we have seen a time in recent American history

818
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 9: when relations between the US president and the European leaders

819
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 9: had been as fraught as they are. You know, publicly

820
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 9: they will at least sometimes say nice things about each other,

821
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 9: but privately there is no love lost between these folks.

822
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 9: And you know, you listen to mcrone. I was listening

823
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 9: to him just the other day, and he's saying things like, oh,

824
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 9: you know, we don't want to deal with this plan

825
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 9: Trump has, and you know we have something else in store,

826
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 9: and Europe, the United States and Ukraine can beat Russia.

827
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 9: And you feel like shaking him by the shoulders and say,

828
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 9: but President McCrone, like Donald Trump has checked out of

829
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 9: this entire endeavor with you. This is now Europe and Ukraine,

830
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,280
Speaker 9: and Europe's economy is not what it was in twenty

831
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 9: twenty two to move forward like this. So I think

832
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 9: the European leaders have a tough time ahead until and

833
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 9: unless the United States gets a new leader with a

834
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:41,439
Speaker 9: very different view on this war.

835
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, thanks for listening to the

836
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 2: balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you

837
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 2: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

838
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 2: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

839
00:41:56,600 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 2: DC at new Time Eastern at Bloomberg dot com