WEBVTT - Winning Was the 'Easy Part' for Starmer: Now What? 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:07.480 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:13.160 You campaign for it, you've fought for it, you've voted 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:15.840 for it, and now it has arrived. 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:17.560 Change begins. 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:29.560 Now welcome to another special edition of the voter Nomics podcast, 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:34.320 where politics and markets collide. I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:37.680 Economics and Government at Bloomberg, and I'm in Whitehall in 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:41.240 the Old War Office, just a stone's throw from ten 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:44.199 Downing Street. If you're much better at throwing stones than 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:48.440 i am. The Conservatives just a review have been turfed 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:52.360 out in a seismic changing of the guard in Westminster 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:55.520 and across constituencies up and down the land, with Prime 0:00:55.560 --> 0:00:58.280 Minister of Is She's Sunak presiding over a record loss 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:02.200 of around two hundred and fifty Conservative seats, Labor with 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:06.959 a majority just shy of Tony Blair's landslide victory of 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:09.520 nineteen ninety seven, and there will be a lot of 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:12.560 other new faces joining him in Parliament, including many more 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:16.319 Liberal Democrats, a clutch of reform and Green MPs will 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:18.880 be very interested in five years time to see what 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:22.560 the opposition, what kind of opposition the Labor Party is facing. 0:01:22.640 --> 0:01:24.520 But I think it's fair to say, for the first 0:01:24.520 --> 0:01:29.440 time in a long time, the world here in that 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:31.959 the financial markets and in London but also around the 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:34.959 world doesn't have to pay that much attention to the 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:38.720 Conservative Party's travails, at least for a while, any more 0:01:38.760 --> 0:01:41.120 than they ever care about a weak opposition party at 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:43.280 the start of a new government with a massive majority. 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:48.640 So instead we'll be focusing here on Labor and markets 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:51.080 haven't reacted this morning. You'll probably have seen, and I 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:53.240 think con mentioned there's been no big change in the 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:57.280 pound foot seats up slightly when it opened a few 0:01:57.280 --> 0:01:59.920 minutes ago, and that's obviously because it wasn't a surprise 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:03.280 that the Labor Party had won. But I think you 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:06.200 know they've been so cagey and so careful in the 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:09.120 lead up to this, with their huge lead in the 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:12.160 polls that they didn't want to lose. Then I think 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:14.799 there will be plenty in the months to come that 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:18.840 will be a surprise for investors and for the business 0:02:18.840 --> 0:02:20.760 community and for all of. 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:22.240 Us here up on the stage. 0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:24.400 I have to help me thinking about this, think about 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:27.120 this for the next few minutes. Bloomberg's editor in chief 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:30.280 John Mikolfwaite and Sir Nigel Wilson, who was the chief 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:33.639 executive of the insurer Legal in General for a decade 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:37.240 before standing down last year, and has recently been appointed 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:41.359 group chairman of Canary Wharf Group. So Nigel, let me 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:45.040 come to you, because along with your business career, you've 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:48.959 been quite public over the years about the factors holding 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:54.320 back the UK economy and the shortcomings in government policy 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:59.840 over this period. Do you seriously expect now that lay 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:02.959 But will change things and what kind of advice would 0:03:03.000 --> 0:03:03.840 you give them. 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.600 I'm very excited because I think Kids done an amazing 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:11.840 job to transform the party and win the election, and 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:15.440 he's now got a wonderful opportunity because as I've always said, 0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:17.200 we've got an amazing amount of capital in the UK. 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:20.200 We've got six trillion pounds of long term capital which 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:24.320 has been hopelessly misallocated for the last twenty or thirty years. 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:27.239 So they've got the capital already sitting in the UK 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:30.360 to do all the necessary changes. Because we're always bottom 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:32.800 of the G seven table in terms of the percentage 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:36.960 of investment as a proportion of GDP, we could now 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:38.800 move to near the top of it if we want 0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:41.240 to do that, And they put the policy and regulation 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:44.520 in place, to drive growth in housing, to drive growth 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:48.960 in sort out the water industry, their massive transformation on energy, 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:52.240 and to build a world class venture capital and scale 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:57.200 up businesses in the UK. So I'm very excited about 0:03:57.200 --> 0:04:00.280 the prospects because kids done a great job in Phase one, 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:01.800 which I think is the easiest. 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:02.400 One, is winning the election. 0:04:02.920 --> 0:04:06.560 Verse two is actually coming forward with some not KG policies, 0:04:06.560 --> 0:04:09.520 but some real credible policies about how we're really going 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:11.360 to grow the economy and use. 0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:13.000 All the private capital and all the. 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:16.520 Private expertise to drive that growth, and then be very 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:20.720 supportive next year in actually making sure that capital gets 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:24.599 spent and the government acts in a very bald and 0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:27.240 aggressive way that they haven't done for a very long 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:30.880 period of time to really drive change. Don't just talk 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:34.400 about change, You've got to make change happen. So I 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:38.080 think they are listening. I've had lots of indeed some 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:42.440 private sessions with kir on this, and I think they're 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:45.640 up for doing this. This could be nineteen forty five, 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:49.440 a transformation of the economy going forward, a modernization of 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:53.840 the economy going forward, and really really delivering and making 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:58.080 people happy again about the terrible lack of growth that 0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:01.800 we've seen since two thousand and seven. How far behind 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:04.839 we've fallen against the best amount of competitors. 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:06.440 Well, just to follow up on that, I mean, I 0:05:06.440 --> 0:05:08.719 think you know people would often people outside the world 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:13.839 are surprised that we have a world leading financial sector, 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:18.000 that it's so good at deploying capital, But historically, for 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:20.160 more than a century it has been bad deploying it 0:05:20.160 --> 0:05:22.440 in its own country. We just haven't we haven't seen 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:24.280 it go into the kind of private investment. And as 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:26.839 you mentioned, twenty four of the last thirty years we've 0:05:26.839 --> 0:05:28.800 had the lowest rate of investment in the Group of Seven, 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:32.000 and we're about twenty eighth out of thirty one countries 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:32.839 in the OECD. 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:34.080 So when you talk. 0:05:33.920 --> 0:05:38.279 About Takirstama, the incoming prime minister knows what's at stake 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:41.400 and knows some of the key leavers to pull. 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:42.000 What are you. 0:05:42.000 --> 0:05:45.479 Focused on on planning restrictions on house building? Where would 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:45.880 you see it? 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:48.280 I think all of these things are integrated together, because 0:05:48.360 --> 0:05:51.800 I think once you start delivering change and people seeing 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:54.880 things happen, then you create that immersing positive momentum. They've 0:05:54.880 --> 0:05:56.279 done it in the election. I think they can do 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:58.120 it in the economy as well, because the numbers that 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:00.200 you caught are often the ones that I qued as well. 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:03.560 We have this massive potential. There's six trillion pounds of 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:07.040 long term capital. There's three trillion in the pension fund industry, 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:10.960 there's one and a half trillion in the insurance industry, 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:15.280 seven and fifty billion sitting in various serving schemes, and 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:17.800 isis have seven and fifty billion as well. That's six 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:21.960 trillion hopelessly deployed. And we got some of the cleverest, 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:24.480 best bankers in the world, and as you said, they're 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:26.880 world leading. We now have to get them working with 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:30.600 industry and actually under the sponsorship and leadership of the 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:34.920 government to really make a difference and planning. Initially, they've 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:38.360 got to use the powers they already have, compulsory purchase orders, 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:41.240 call in rights, and then put in place legislation which 0:06:41.279 --> 0:06:44.640 allows them to really drive growth in the energy industry 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:47.559 and the housing industry, in the water industry, but also 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:49.800 in all these amazing scale up businesses that we have 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:53.320 across the UK. So they actually do scale up. They 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:56.200 do ip R here in the UK, and we look 0:06:56.240 --> 0:06:58.600 in two or three years time and say, wow, all 0:06:58.640 --> 0:07:03.200 these amazing things have happened here in the UK. 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:05.960 I think is that we all know planning is one 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:09.880 huge area where things could change dramatically. The other gigantic 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:14.000 one is Europe, which you didn't mention that bit like 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:17.320 Karma is not mentioned or he's tried not to mention it. 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:20.280 But if you were looking just from a straightforward economists 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:23.200 point of view about how to grow the British economy, 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:27.240 a new deal with Europe and one which went perhaps 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:30.240 quite close to a customs union, perhaps is that the 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:31.840 other the other lever he. 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:34.119 Could pull in order to get these things happening. 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:36.600 Yes, I think that's an excellent question, and I would 0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:40.720 agree with everything you said that John, that it's something 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:43.280 we should be doing. There's a bit of chills in 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:46.080 Europe at the moment, and we've got these domestic priorities 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:49.280 where we can actually deliver on them without wasting too 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:51.080 much time literally next week they. 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:54.560 In order to get the most growth out of Europe 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:55.080 to start. 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:57.280 I mean, I would be in favor of a customs union, 0:07:57.320 --> 0:07:59.120 but clearly that's not the position that here and the 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:01.760 rest of the team have right now. But actually the 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:04.680 get momentum in the domestic economy that will create confidence 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:08.680 and actually going forward and developing a much firmer and 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:11.160 better relationship with Europe, which I think we would all 0:08:11.800 --> 0:08:12.280 cheer for. 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:15.480 I guess the pushback to some of this optimism, although 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:18.880 obviously it is exciting and it's great to hear the 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:23.840 kind of confidence and the optimism in your voice, Nigel. 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:26.560 The just two things that we've identified that could make 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:28.800 a difference. Are there just two things that have caused 0:08:28.800 --> 0:08:33.520 the most problem for you successive UK governments? Pushing through 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:38.880 difficult investment projects or big infrastructure investment. Redeploying capital in 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:42.720 the in the savings industry. I mean, people have been 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:46.920 trying to do this for many years, many including Jeremy Hunt, 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:50.720 have talked about it, and equally Europe has has just 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:53.880 sucked so much time and political capital over the years 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:56.720 without necessarily you know, it's going to would take quite 0:08:56.720 --> 0:08:59.880 a lot for this incoming government decide to deploy it there. 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:02.240 So isn't that the chat. The two things that we've 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:05.640 talked about are actually incredibly hard and they could look 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:07.280 very bogged down very quickly. 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:09.280 I think that's not going to be the case, because 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:11.840 certainly I'm I'm very pleased by the way that Jeremy 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:13.840 kept his seat because he did a lot of work 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:15.920 on pension reform. He's a really good person and he 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:18.679 stood up when we really needed somebody to stand up. 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:20.800 And I think Rachel's going to be the same is 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:23.480 that she's going to try to make things happen and 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:27.880 at pace. And so we know what the past look like, 0:09:27.960 --> 0:09:30.040 we don't want to repeat of that. Therefore, we've got 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:33.920 to really drive change through very very quickly. And there 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:36.559 are so many easy wins. You know, there's a stock 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:40.319 of housing projects just stuck in planning, and you can 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:43.600 accelerate that. It's a choice you can select whether do 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:45.600 we go faster U s law. We all want to 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:49.040 go faster on things like that. And once that starts happening, 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:52.800 doors lead to doors, and we'll see more good things 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:55.640 happening right now because there's there's a good will towards 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:56.800 the party. 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:58.920 Are you so confident these things are going to happen 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:02.280 because you're going to be in charge of doing them. 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:04.200 You have been talked about as. 0:10:04.880 --> 0:10:07.880 I'm certainly very close to lots of the mayors across 0:10:07.880 --> 0:10:12.000 the Believer and Devolution, and indeed I'd already set up 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:16.280 some meetings post the election to talk to them about 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:18.640 what else we can do to accelerate the growth, be 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:20.160 that in Newcastle or Sunderland. 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:22.520 But if Takia calls up in a few hours, I said, 0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:24.440 you know what, I. 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:26.360 Think he's got bigger issues to worry about than what 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:28.840 I'm going to do for the next few months. But 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:31.160 he's going to He's got a good team around him, 0:10:31.160 --> 0:10:34.440 and that team's talked up their capability. Now they have 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:37.280 to deliver on that capability. And they've got the money. 0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:39.160 And as you're right you said, we've got a brilliant 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:42.200 financial services sector, almost the envy of the world. We're 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:45.520 brilliant in Pe, We're brilliant in VC. We've got tons 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:48.840 of savings, We've got masses of great banks here in 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:52.200 the City of London. We've got huge underinvestment. As you 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:55.120 pointed out, for the last thirty years, there's so many 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:57.040 easy wins make them happen. 0:10:57.400 --> 0:10:59.520 If I was you imagine you did get that job, 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.320 I would be rather worried by some of the seats. 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:04.080 That labor is just one. 0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:06.640 You know, all these things like Uldershot, These are all 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:10.440 the places where the Tories have faced endless problems over 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:12.520 planning because people object to it. 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:13.640 They don't like it. 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:16.280 There's that film studio in Theiamalow which even people like 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:19.679 Georgie Osporan say it's insane not to build it, the 0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:22.640 three thousand jobs, two hundred acres, but because it's just 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:25.600 on the edge of the green belt, people don't want it. 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:28.480 You are now going to have in Labor a group 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:31.640 of MPs which never had before, who, after a few 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:35.200 hours of self congratulation, they're stunning and face to the prospect. 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:38.319 They've got constituents who don't like new houses. There could 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:40.520 be another wing of the Labor Party which actually makes 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:43.040 life more difficult than easy for all the things you 0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:43.520 want to do. 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:44.800 I think that's a possibility. 0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:46.559 But you know, when I was at Legal in General, 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.160 we did the sky studios at Elstree, which is in 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:52.240 a not quite the green belt, but in an area 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:56.640 that was difficult to achieve planning on. But once people 0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:58.920 see these things and they become up and running, and 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:01.360 you can take people across the country and say, look, 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:04.960 this is what happened here. This is the outcome. Don't 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:07.800 be fearful about it. This is the rights of our 0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:11.679 children to have housing. You know, our generations stolen from 0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:14.520 our children by not giving them their housing, by charging 0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:17.280 for god to universities, by not giving them good pensions, 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:19.480 all the things that we took for granted. We have 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:21.720 to replace them by doing a better job for them 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:24.320 going forward in educations on that list as well, which 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:26.200 I know you feel very strong. 0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:27.760 In a minute, I want to get onto sort of 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:30.800 pulling back of the lens in terms of where this victory, 0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:33.400 what it looks like in a global context, and what 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:37.960 that means for kirs Arma as a new prime minister. 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:40.600 But I guess you know, for the audience that is 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.800 the business community, for investors around the world, very important 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:45.959 to get stability, and I think that is why there 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:51.120 was confidence around this. There was a positive reaction to this, 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:54.559 just the prospect of a five years stable majority government, 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:57.959 the good things that they might do that we've talked 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:01.160 about to unlock investment and growth. But of course with 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:04.200 any labor government, you also have the question of what bad. 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:05.600 Things are we hoping they don't do? 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:11.000 And you know, one query has been given that they're 0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:12.480 not going to have very much money to play with. 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:16.720 What often then happens is that you change laws instead 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:19.760 of spending money, because you can do sweeping things by changing, 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:24.440 for example, employment law, maybe eating away a bit at 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:27.679 the sort of flexible hire and fire structure of the 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:32.360 UK in ways that have unexpectedly quite negative effects for 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:35.959 growth and for business confidence. So how worried should people 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:37.840 be about that? Because that was where there was a 0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:39.319 bit of detail in the manifesto. 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:41.440 Yeah, I agree with that, and I think that's what's 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:43.920 happened over the last thirty years. We made all these 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:47.400 marginal decisions which look when you're making them as though 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:49.520 they're positive, but actually when you look at the second 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:52.720 order effects and the unintended consequences have been very negative 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.800 for the overall economy and people's thinking about what a 0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:58.640 great place the UK is to invest. 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:00.640 That's why they have to have some wins on the 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:01.800 positive growth story. 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.719 So they're definitely changing the narrative, but not spending all 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:07.839 of their time causing things which are a problem for business. 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:10.360 Is there anything in that manifesto on that front that 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:11.440 you would worry about? 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:11.800 Well? 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:13.520 I think everyone, Yeah, I forget. 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:16.200 The worker's rights issues are going to are going to 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.280 be an issue that people are going to have to 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:21.320 be concerned concerned about, you know, and it's not going 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.360 to be plain sailing giving the composition of the of 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:26.680 the Labor Party, and that is a risk, that is 0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:28.680 definitely a risk. So you're right to highlight that as 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:30.200 a as a risk. And I've been on the other 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:32.520 side of that where I've been overly optimistic about things 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:35.480 and then got just really let me down again. 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:38.800 And that's happened so much in the so much in 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:39.280 the past. 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:43.280 But I think the towns and the cities across the 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:45.480 UK have very capable people. 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:46.200 In them now as well. 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.400 The banks themselves have moved to Birmingham, to Leeds, to Manchester, 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:52.720 to Newcastle, and that's having a difference because suddenly capital 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:56.320 is on tap, ambitions on tap. The mayors themselves are 0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:58.560 very ambitious people and very capable people. 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:00.760 That is clearly going to be the ultimate test. 0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:03.400 They've talked a lot about decentralizing, and I certainly with 0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:05.360 someone who thinks, I agree with you that it's the 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:09.120 best way now given where we are to make things happen, 0:15:09.200 --> 0:15:12.040 is to be devolving more power to regions and to 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:15.440 cities in particular. But whether you know, so many governments 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:17.160 say that and then they get power they don't want 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:20.840 to relinquish it, so we'll see what happens. John, I think, 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:24.600 you know, you're someone who is flitting around the world 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:28.120 quite a lot while we do all the work, she says, 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:35.000 And I flicked It was not a surprise in the 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:38.160 UK context at all, and it comes after fourteen years 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:42.000 of conservative rule. But in a global context this is 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:43.160 completely out of step. 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:45.640 I think this is a big deal globally. I think 0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:48.960 that if you step back spect those of us who 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.080 deal with America a lot, we'll get a lot of calls. 0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:54.680 Later next week, You've got the summit where star War 0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:58.520 will go there, and suddenly this man who is describing 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:01.280 was was you know, rather it seemed like a rather 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:04.960 marginal figure in world politics, will suddenly be one of 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:08.480 the most powerful people, notwithstanding the fact the kind of 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:12.320 basket case nature of Britain in many ways. He will 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:16.120 appear and he is the one person next week who 0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:17.480 will be able to say, look, I'm here for the 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:20.200 next five years. You look around the rest of the world. 0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:22.640 You've got Joe Biden, for whom the weekend maybe a 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:23.200 long time. 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:24.200 You have. 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:30.240 Macron, who is in severe trouble. I love Schultz has 0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:34.200 also got issues. And from that perspective, you've got Keir Starmer, 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:37.400 a very good Greek prime minister, good Italian primi or 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:40.240 Italian prime minis who's doing quite well. That Starmo is 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:42.240 going to be right at the very center of things 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:46.120 with a degree of longevity, and I think that is 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:49.160 actually really quite a big thing, and especially in the 0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:52.360 context of what's happening in other countries, and that degree 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:56.360 of permanence is a very strange thing. And then secondly, 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:58.000 he will be able to say, look, I'm the person 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:02.440 who's managed to resist or at least in theory, I've 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.439 managed to resist these sort of nationalist currents which are 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:08.520 happening elsewhere. And yes, people will come back at him 0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:11.040 and say we'll reform did well that that is not 0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:13.440 the same as what's happening in Paris. It's not the 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:17.159 same as what's happening in Germany. And if you factor 0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:19.040 Donald Trump, and it's not not the same as what's 0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:22.200 happening in America. So there will be I think, amongst 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:24.679 what might have describe the center ground of politics, there 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:27.800 will also be a degree of Starmerism. So I completely 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:31.240 agree as I indicated, but that with the massive problems. 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:35.199 Starmer's got here, but actually in a weird way, you know, 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:37.760 he's on the international stage. I think he is the 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:41.639 first person since kind of Cameron or possibly Blair to 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:45.200 have that degree of clout when it comes to the 0:17:46.040 --> 0:17:47.680 it comes to the world politics. 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:49.520 I mean, I guess we don't know what's going to 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:53.480 happen in France, will find out on Sunday night. But 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:56.800 to the extent as you say, we have the German Chancellor, 0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:02.640 French President Macron very much on the back foot, potentially 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:06.640 President Biden as well. I guess there is danger though 0:18:06.680 --> 0:18:09.639 that they've invested all this time in roose relationships that 0:18:09.680 --> 0:18:11.080 are not really going to be worth very much and 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:13.399 they're not going to be able to provide things that 0:18:13.480 --> 0:18:15.919 labor or that the UK needs. So is that that 0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:16.880 that's the downside? 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:17.679 I think there is. 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:20.040 I think one of the problems which Nigel alluded to 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:23.480 is that the obvious thing. I think if all three 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:26.000 of us, to make a terrible presumption, were put into 0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:29.240 Downing Street, I think redoing the relationship with Europe would 0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:33.320 be that is the simple, easiest way to get the 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:37.199 growth that Britain needs, and that nothing none of the 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:40.959 wonderful things that you may not be wonderful to everybody. 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:44.240 The things that labor wants to do are going to be. 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:46.840 Really possible without growth because you have the guilts market 0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:51.000 sitting there looking at government spending. But the problem is 0:18:51.160 --> 0:18:54.280 you go to Europe and it's a mess, and so 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:59.080 the idea that you know, Starma can immediately get some. 0:18:58.960 --> 0:18:59.760 Degree of deal there. 0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:01.400 I think, you know, if I was Starmer, I would 0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:03.879 still try and do that rapidly because I think it 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:06.800 has two amazing effects for Starmer. 0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:10.520 Number one is it increases British growth. 0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:15.760 Secondly, it really skewers the Tories because it probably pushes 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:18.280 the Tories into a position where they oppose no matter 0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:21.600 what happens, whatever deal he does come up with, And 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:23.240 I think when he does, if they do that, I 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:25.960 think I'll make a terrible presumption again about the nature 0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:28.159 of the people in this room. But I think the 0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:32.240 commercial classes in Britain, if the Tories again push themselves 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:35.160 into a thing where they really limit growth, I think 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:37.639 that would be a very serious thing for the future 0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:38.560 of the Conservative Party. 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:39.760 I mean, if you look sorry, and I. 0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:41.800 Think we can change investor perception. 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:44.600 That's the other thing One of the points that John's 0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:47.600 just made is that because this will have financial and 0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:50.359 political stability for the next five years, this is a. 0:19:50.680 --> 0:19:52.600