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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast. Pot all right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 2: fifty and the kick as block the college football world stundar.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, he stumbled and bob the latter of

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Speaker 2: turn a catter on the inside. Don't you believe I'm not.

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Speaker 1: Gonna table up the field to night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the size of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 2: it's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus Podcast. This is the college football Semi Final

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Speaker 1: betting preview. I'm stucky, joining me as always my fellow

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Speaker 1: BBOC Coast Colin Wilson. Three games left. That's it. We'll

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Speaker 1: cover both today. We'll have a little fun throughout a

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Speaker 1: We were tasked with giving out a same game parlay

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Speaker 1: for each game. I got Penn State, Notre Dame, Colin Is, Texas,

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Speaker 1: Ohio State, Colin. So you made it home safely, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you sober up from your Twitter tirades? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I think you know. You get out in the sun,

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Speaker 2: in the Arizona sun, and you have a bottle of

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Speaker 2: New Year's Dave move you're laying by the pool and

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Speaker 2: someone starts everybody starts piling on you. For Arizona State

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Speaker 2: plus thirteen in the first quarter. It was one of

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Speaker 2: those kinds of days. But no, I'm glad I'm back

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Speaker 2: from the desert, ran into the blizzard number one, and

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Speaker 2: I'm in a very small window where I get to

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Speaker 2: potentially drive and navigate Blizzard number two, which is hitting

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Speaker 2: the Cotton Bowl. For everybody that is traveling.

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Speaker 1: I'm completely snowed in here. So just not that I

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Speaker 1: would be going anywhere right now. Just diving into these

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Speaker 1: two games. NFL Our, NFL podcast tomorrow, college Basketball Basketball

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Speaker 1: podcast on Thursday. To make sure you check all those

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Speaker 1: out college basketball podcasts on this channel, NFL podcast, Action

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Speaker 1: Network Podcast. But let's get right into it. We'll start

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Speaker 1: with the first College Football Playoffs semi final game on

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Speaker 1: Thursday between Penn State and Notre Dame.

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Speaker 2: Oh doniball the pipes Pipe SoC call.

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Speaker 1: From Lenswood. It is the Capitol One Orange Bowl and

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Speaker 1: hard Rock Stadium. Notre Dame currently a two and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorite, total sitting around forty five ish. There's

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Speaker 1: some injury watch for both teams, and by the way,

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Speaker 1: these two teams have not met since two thousand and seven.

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Speaker 1: It's cool to get these matchups with the expanded playoff,

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Speaker 1: more likely to get some of these historic programs meeting

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Speaker 1: each other, which I think is really cool. These two

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Speaker 1: teams haven't played since two thousand and seven. The all

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Speaker 1: time series is nine to nine with one tie, So

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Speaker 1: the first to reach ten we'll get to this year's

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Speaker 1: national championship. Injury questions Notre Dame side. How healthy is

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Speaker 1: Jeremiah Love had a brace on. Don't think he's going

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Speaker 1: to be one hundred percent? How healthy is Howard Cross,

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Speaker 1: who's even more important with Riley Mills out for the year.

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Speaker 1: And then Penn State all eyes on Abdul Carter, whose

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Speaker 1: importance can't be overstated. I mean he's first round draft

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Speaker 1: pick Locke. He leads the team with eleven sacks, second

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Speaker 1: nationally twenty one tackles loss, But even more important than that,

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Speaker 1: the attention that he draws opens up everything else for

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Speaker 1: the others along that Penn State defensive front reading the

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Speaker 1: t lead when when it first happened, I thought he

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Speaker 1: had a torn back. Reading the tea Lea's it might

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Speaker 1: be like a joint sprain reading like his post. It

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Speaker 1: looks like he's going to play. But how healthy will

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Speaker 1: he be? How you know, will it flare up? Will

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Speaker 1: he aggravate it? Will he be able to go at

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Speaker 1: full strength for the full game? I don't think anybody

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Speaker 1: knows that except maybe not even him.

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Speaker 2: That's a let me say this. So he did not

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Speaker 2: practice at the media viewing portion during Sunday. That is

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Speaker 2: the last time the media will get their eyes on

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Speaker 2: Penn State in practice. He wasn't available. What he was

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Speaker 2: viewed with was a lot of tape on his shoulder.

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Speaker 2: And Franklin said, if if he can play, but how

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Speaker 2: effective will he be? In so many words, said, we

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Speaker 2: don't know the effectiveness of how much he would have.

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Speaker 2: You know, if he does play in the game, so

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Speaker 2: physically able to play, how much can he affect the game?

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Speaker 2: That's the problem.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and he could have. He'd be going up against

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Speaker 1: Anthony Knapp, the left tackle from their name. He's a

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Speaker 1: lot of thirteen percent pressure rate through two playoff games.

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Speaker 1: That's problematic against Carter. Carter also can be used as

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Speaker 1: a spy at times, and you know he has the

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Speaker 1: speed in physicality to match Leonard and Penn State for

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Speaker 1: what it's worth, has done an excellent job against mobile

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks all year. Now, they haven't really faced many or

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Speaker 1: any of the caliber of Leonard. I go back to

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Speaker 1: like Garrett Green Week one. He had ten carries for

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Speaker 1: five yards, eight for twenty if you remove the sacks.

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Speaker 1: Kevin Jennings of SMU he had eight carries for negative

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Speaker 1: twenty five yards, five for eleven if you remove the sacks.

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Speaker 1: But Penn State in general does a really good job

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Speaker 1: against the quarterback. We'll see if Leonard can get loose

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Speaker 1: here because when I look at this game, look, I

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Speaker 1: it seems like everyone in the world loves Notre Dame.

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Speaker 1: I think, including you. I make Penn State a favorite here.

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Speaker 1: I will be on Penn State. I'm waiting sending it

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Speaker 1: two and a half now, I'm gonna wait to see

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Speaker 1: if it at three pops. I'm gonna wait to see if

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Speaker 1: I can get more intel on Carter, because I do

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Speaker 1: think he matters, and he matters to the spread, and

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Speaker 1: he matters to how this game will play out. But look,

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Speaker 1: I just can't see this. Let me start. I'll start

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Speaker 1: with Notre Dame as the ball. Yep, I don't think

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Speaker 1: Notre Dame is going to have sustained success, and if

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Speaker 1: they do getting to scoring range, they're going up against

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Speaker 1: an elite red zone d second nationally, there's going to

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Speaker 1: be more field goal attempts than touchdown celebrations. The good

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Speaker 1: news for Notre Dame is Mitch Jeter appears healthy, which

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Speaker 1: is huge because they were thirteen of twenty four. I

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Speaker 1: think on field goals before last week he was clearly

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Speaker 1: not healthy. He clear really is now and he was

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Speaker 1: three for three last week against Goria, all from forty plus.

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Speaker 1: That's important what I think will be a lower scoring game.

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Speaker 1: I was shocked to see this total open to some

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Speaker 1: shots of fifty. It's now down to forty five. I

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Speaker 1: make it like forty fourish, so it's under nothing for me.

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Speaker 1: At forty five or above. Notre Name team total also

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Speaker 1: is in play. I just the Penn State run DYE

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Speaker 1: is elite. They can load the box here. Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: is just very limited on the outside and I think

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Speaker 1: you have to attack Penn State through the air now

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Speaker 1: without Carter, we saw Aloise States start to have more

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Speaker 1: success last week, so that's again that's why his status

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Speaker 1: is important here. But you just look at the last

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Speaker 1: two games for Notre Dame against Indiana. You know, it

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Speaker 1: was one ninety eight yard run. Other than that, Indiana's

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Speaker 1: defense held him in check. Last week, Yeah, they scored

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Speaker 1: twenty three points thirteen Fourteen of those twenty three came

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Speaker 1: within a minute span off of a strip, sack, short

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Speaker 1: field and a kick return for a touchdown. It's not

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Speaker 1: like their offense did much. I think just a box

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Speaker 1: score had them as a small loser in the game.

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Speaker 1: So I just don't see Notre Dame's offense doing much.

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Speaker 1: I don't think Riley Leonard and these pass catchers can

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Speaker 1: consistently move the ball through the air against the national

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Speaker 1: elite defense. I think it's going to be a struggle.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad you started on this side of the ball,

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Speaker 2: because I think it's a complete wash. I think the

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Speaker 2: other side of the balls where you and I are

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Speaker 2: going to get into our difference is so to be

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Speaker 2: real quick here. Jordan Love, he was at the open

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Speaker 2: practice on Sunday for Notre Dame Limited. Jeremiah Jordan, I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: Jeremiah Love. I'm about to get to Jordan Faison. I've

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Speaker 2: got all my Jay's mixed up. Jeremi Love was available

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Speaker 2: at practice, but extremely limited wearing a brace, and frankly,

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Speaker 2: I think it was more the whispers I'm hearing. It

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Speaker 2: was more of show so that they have to plan

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Speaker 2: for it. Tied in Cooper flanagain has lost for the season.

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Speaker 2: Against Georgia, he only averaged twenty one snaps per game,

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Speaker 2: but that is a part of a heavier package that

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Speaker 2: they use for blocking the inside zone and the man blocking,

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Speaker 2: the gap blocking that they do with Love. They use

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Speaker 2: Riley in a ton of man and gap designed runs.

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Speaker 2: I think what happened in the Sugar Bowl was once

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Speaker 2: they didn't have Jeremiah Love, they used Riley Leonard complete

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Speaker 2: inside zone and they used Jadariing Price to completely line

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Speaker 2: up and just man gap block through A, B and C.

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Speaker 2: And you look at Leonard, I mean he's the one

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Speaker 2: that had the thirty two yard explosive. He created six

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Speaker 2: miss tackles as a quarterback, that is huge. Price never

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Speaker 2: had a single run over eight yards. I don't expect

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Speaker 2: any of that to change against Penn State. Maybe they

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Speaker 2: can contain Leonard. I think the one quarterback you didn't mention,

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Speaker 2: and I went through the same exercise as you. I

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Speaker 2: looked at all those quarterbacks will Howard Garrett Green. I

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Speaker 2: wanted to look at I wanted to strip away their

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Speaker 2: scramble yards and look at their designed attempts. Will Howard

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Speaker 2: nine design attempts only thirty four yards. Demon Williams right

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Speaker 2: for Washington, ten designed runs thirty eight yards. He busted

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Speaker 2: a forty three yard scramble. To me, that was a

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Speaker 2: little important because we know Riley Leonard will take off

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Speaker 2: if he has to. But he was held, you know,

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Speaker 2: pretty low on designed runs as far as attempts go.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's a wash on this side of

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Speaker 2: the ball because Leonard's going to see twenty eight percent man.

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Speaker 2: Penn State runs a lot of Man. We're gonna talk

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Speaker 2: about Manda Man coverage on the other side of the ball.

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Speaker 2: Mostly he's going to see cover one. It's just a wash,

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Speaker 2: like success rate fifty three to fifty five percent, you know,

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Speaker 2: that's mid FBS. I think the one thing that's notable stuck.

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Speaker 2: There were some players during the Boise State game in

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Speaker 2: the Fiesta Bowl that had some small injuries, Like you know,

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Speaker 2: middle linebacker Kobe King had had a little small injury

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Speaker 2: during the Fiesta Bowl. There were a couple of other

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Speaker 2: players that showed some hurt. Now they're all available at practicing.

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Speaker 2: They're practicing, but you can see the playoff take a

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Speaker 2: toll on this Penn State defense. The farther we get.

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Speaker 1: Well. I also will say Penn State has a couple

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Speaker 1: extra days of prep and rest, which doesn't hurt this

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Speaker 1: time of the year based on how the schedule broke. Great,

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Speaker 1: this is a great coordinator matchup. But I also was

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Speaker 1: really impressed with Marcus Freeman last week. I thought he

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Speaker 1: basically won in the game. I mean their special teams

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Speaker 1: were great. I think I Tharty out coached Kirby smart.

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Speaker 2: Can I say something real quick? Can I say something

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Speaker 2: Marcus Freeman It is not Dan Landing level. He will

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Speaker 2: take chances and he does make great calls. I think

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Speaker 2: he's calculated and he can be aggressive.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think aggressive on fourth and ones anywhere on

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Speaker 1: the field.

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Speaker 2: One thing that came out of Penn State's presser, and

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Speaker 2: it's the first time I ever heard it, James Franklin said,

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Speaker 2: I'm the one that tells Andy Kotalniky, which we're going

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Speaker 2: to this So I'm the one that tells Andy Cotalniky

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Speaker 2: when to be aggressive and when to be conservative, and

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Speaker 2: I think that answers a question that you and I

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Speaker 2: have had all season. Who's calling the place? Andy Colnicky's

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Speaker 2: calling the place. Franklin is the one that has always

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Speaker 2: dictated conservative versus aggressive, So it's important to remember.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think Notre Dame as an edge in

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Speaker 1: that aspect. But moving on to the other side of

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Speaker 1: the ball, great coordinator matchup across the board like the

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Speaker 1: x's and is the chess match here between. Al Golden

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Speaker 1: is one of the best defensive coordinators in college football.

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Speaker 1: Andy Kotelnicki, who's one of the best offensive coordinators. I

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Speaker 1: don't think it's going to be easy for Penn State.

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Speaker 1: They're going to face just a ton of Cover one.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna be press man on the outside against Penn

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Speaker 1: State's underwhelming receivers. You're gonna have and then at the

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Speaker 1: end they have two just really good safeties. Notre Dame does,

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Speaker 1: led by of course Xavior Watts, who's gonna be roaming

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Speaker 1: a lot back there. You'll see a lot of Cover

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Speaker 1: one robber and I expect them there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: They're gonna blitz a ton, They're gonna, you know, try

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Speaker 1: to shoot gaps use stunts, try to get in the backfield,

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Speaker 1: try to and Penn State's offensive line is vulnerable. Even

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Speaker 1: though the right tackle Rucchie, who filled in for the

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Speaker 1: original start, has been playing better of late, there's still

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Speaker 1: some vulnerable areas, especially against the Blitz, and you saw

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Speaker 1: that at times against Boise State. Notre Dame's gonna bring it.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna keep guys in the box. They're gonna try

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Speaker 1: to slow down Allan and Singleton, and then they're probably

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Speaker 1: gonna be looking very hard at that Ohio State tape

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Speaker 1: and how they handled Tyler Warren. And I don't know

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Speaker 1: if Watts like Watts, can't you know, he's in the

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Speaker 1: free safety that they like to give him a lot

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Speaker 1: of freedom. I don't think he'd be able to stop

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Speaker 1: warn one on one. He's from their size perspective, man.

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Speaker 2: De man, They're gonna put them all heads up and

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Speaker 2: they'll see if it works. You're right, though, Yeah, but

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Speaker 2: from a size perspective, I don't. I don't necessarily think

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Speaker 2: that will work. Again, I expect them the bracket warn

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Speaker 2: like Ohio State did. Ohio State has excellent safeties too.

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Speaker 2: They bracketed Warren a lot, so I think it's gonna

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Speaker 2: be extra attention on Warren. I think Notre Dame is

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Speaker 2: going to load the box. You're trying to stop the run.

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Speaker 2: How does Penn State move the ball? Because I think

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Speaker 2: in this case a ton of runs with two slow

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Speaker 2: paced offenses, the clock's going to be moving throughout. Both

250
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Speaker 2: teams are going to lean on their defense, feel each

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Speaker 2: other out under To me, I think is the look.

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Speaker 2: Even though this numbers come down a bit, but the

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Speaker 2: way that you have to beat this Notre Dame defense

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Speaker 2: is you have to throw outside the hash marks, and

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Speaker 2: you have to throw deep, and you have to take shots.

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Speaker 2: Look no further than the USC game and Jordan Myata,

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Speaker 2: that's all he did the whole game was just throw

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Speaker 2: down the sidelines. And now, granted USC has much better

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Speaker 2: receivers than Penn and State, that that's Penn State's weakness

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Speaker 2: and that's one of the reasons Note is even going

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Speaker 2: to lean into it even more, saying, hey, press man

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Speaker 2: on the outside of their corners, and then our safeties, linebackers,

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Speaker 2: defensive linemen are all dedicated to slowing down Warren and

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Speaker 2: the run game. And then if Penn State's receivers can

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Speaker 2: beat as deep hat tip to them, so Ken, the

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Speaker 2: questions is Ken Penn State's off offensive line protect and

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Speaker 2: especially against the blitz and some of the stunts they're

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Speaker 2: going to see that remains to be seen. Number two,

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Speaker 2: who will step up on the outside. The obvious answer

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Speaker 2: is Harrison Wallace. Yes.

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Speaker 1: My answer is my favorite prop in this game, which

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Speaker 1: I put in and it will lead into my same

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Speaker 1: game parlay Omari Evans over twenty and a half receiving yards,

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Speaker 1: I think he can get this in one catch. I

275
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Speaker 1: mean the average is I think nineteen point eight yards

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Speaker 1: per reception, which is top thirty nationally. I think they're

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Speaker 1: going to try to take a couple of deep shots too. Evans.

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Speaker 1: And if you look, he only got one target between

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Speaker 1: weeks nine and twelve, he has seventeen. Over the past

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Speaker 1: five games, average routes have jumped from thirteen and a

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Speaker 1: half per game ten twenty and over this most recent

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Speaker 1: five game stretch, he's caught nine passes for one hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventy seven yards cleared twenty and a half yards

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Speaker 1: his twenty and a half yardage prop. Four of those

285
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Speaker 1: five games, he had at least forty nine in three

286
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Speaker 1: and I don't expect Penn State they run away with

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Speaker 1: this game, like the SMU game, which just they could

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Speaker 1: just then run it and they didn't have to throw

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Speaker 1: it in a favorable game state. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: they're going to take some shots to him. He's the

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Speaker 1: fastest guy on the team. He's really coming to his

292
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Speaker 1: own a ton of confidence. Now. He's a guy that's raw,

293
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Speaker 1: like he was a quarterback in high school. Touchdowns and

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Speaker 1: back to back games at a touchdown against Oregon, touchdown

295
00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:11,880
Speaker 1: against Boise State or did he have a touchdown against SMU.

296
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Speaker 1: I don't know. It's two touchdowns and I know he

297
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Speaker 1: had a touchdown last week, touchdowns two of his best

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Speaker 1: three games. I do know that. So I think Amari

299
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Speaker 1: Evans is going to get I don't know, two to

300
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Speaker 1: three deep shots at least here, and he's gonna have opportunities.

301
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Speaker 1: I think maybe poor ish targets is what he's going

302
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Speaker 1: to end up with. So he might end up being

303
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Speaker 1: the key to Penn State winning this game because I

304
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Speaker 1: think that they're going to have to hit the receivers.

305
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Speaker 1: Is gonna step up. They're going to have to hit

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00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,760
Speaker 1: explosives on the outside with their receivers, which has been

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Speaker 1: a major question mark all year. Notre Name knows that

308
00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,280
Speaker 1: no Name does this anyway, but they're going to allow

309
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Speaker 1: for opportunities Ken Wallace or Evans make the plays. I

310
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Speaker 1: think basically that's what this comes down to. My same

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00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:10,240
Speaker 1: game parlay for this Evans anytime touchdown twenty five plus

312
00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:14,480
Speaker 1: yards Notre Dame team total under twenty three and a half.

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Speaker 1: I think that's the formula for Penn State to win.

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00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:23,200
Speaker 1: It pays eleven to one or plus ten eighty. So yeah,

315
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Speaker 1: look out for Amari Evans. I think he might be

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Speaker 1: the key to Penn State against this heavy cover, one,

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Speaker 1: heavy press man that's going to be focused on taking

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Speaker 1: away Singleton and Alan and most importantly Tyler Warren. I

319
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 1: thought about some Singleton props because I do think that

320
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Speaker 1: code Nick's gonna have to use some misdirection to kind

321
00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 1: of use that Notre Dame aggressiveness against them. They're gonna

322
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Speaker 1: have to get Singleton involved in the passing game some

323
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Speaker 1: but one like they're gonna have to use their backs,

324
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Speaker 1: like last week you got to use Singleton a ton

325
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Speaker 1: and Blitz pick up two. Do you trying to forecast

326
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Speaker 1: the split between Allen and Singleton is tough. Allen is

327
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Speaker 1: the better pass protector and blitz pick her upper so

328
00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,040
Speaker 1: he might get more snaps here. So I just wanted

329
00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 1: to stay away from.

330
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Speaker 2: Which they're going to need.

331
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you did it last week. That's why Singleton.

332
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Speaker 1: I don't think he had any catches last week, right, right,

333
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Speaker 1: so he was used him in blitz protection a ton.

334
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Speaker 1: So Evans is my favorite prop over twenty and a half.

335
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's probably gonna move, so I just

336
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:38,479
Speaker 1: bet it. And I can't put a ton on these things.

337
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 1: Twenty four, twenty three and a half. It's fine, And

338
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 1: that's my same game parlay. I like Penn State. I

339
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,560
Speaker 1: make them a favorite. I also like since I like

340
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Speaker 1: Ben State, I like the under. Probably go with Notre

341
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 1: Dame team total under Penn State. I'm waiting for the three.

342
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,400
Speaker 1: I make them a favorite. Here. You like Notre Dame,

343
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 1: I think it'll be a super close. And the one

344
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:03,680
Speaker 1: thing that scares me is what we just talked about

345
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:09,959
Speaker 1: is that is Freeman going to make more plus evy

346
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:18,160
Speaker 1: decisions and b while James small game, James turtles up

347
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 1: and gets too conservative. That is a real fear of

348
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,040
Speaker 1: mine in a game that should be super tight. But

349
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:24,880
Speaker 1: I got to play my numbers here with Benn State.

350
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 1: Let's say you, what are you seeing here?

351
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Speaker 2: Don't blame you at all, like I don't. I don't listen.

352
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,360
Speaker 2: If you're following me in the app, then you got

353
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,440
Speaker 2: a cheap Notre Dame money line. If you're following stuck,

354
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,199
Speaker 2: you're going to get a Penn State plus three. And

355
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,160
Speaker 2: this is how you play the game. You play props

356
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 2: on the over early, you play props on the under late.

357
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:46,480
Speaker 2: That's just how you handle this market. I gave this

358
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:50,040
Speaker 2: side of the ball like it like the National Championship treatment.

359
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 2: I went as deep as I possibly could. So we'll

360
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,160
Speaker 2: start with the run game. K Tron Allen created nine

361
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 2: miss tackles against Boise Why is that amazing? Because he

362
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:02,120
Speaker 2: averaged two point three mistackles forced before the Fiesta Bowl

363
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:05,399
Speaker 2: like per game, and he created nine. I think maybe

364
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,719
Speaker 2: that goes to show how bad Boise State's tackling was.

365
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,639
Speaker 2: He did have four rushers over ten yards. I'm going

366
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:12,359
Speaker 2: to give a lot of that to Boise State's defense

367
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 2: being second to last and tackling. Now, you mentioned Rouchie

368
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,200
Speaker 2: at right tackle center Nick Dawkins among the best rushing

369
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,720
Speaker 2: run blocking grades of the offensive line. Left tackle Drew

370
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 2: Shelton consistently the worst all season and run block grade.

371
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 2: So you're going to see Singleton Allen go off to

372
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 2: the right and what is pen State run all the time?

373
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 2: Outside zone? What have we been screaming since Service Academy

374
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,880
Speaker 2: games of Notre Dame. They cannot defend inside zone whatsoever?

375
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,560
Speaker 2: The defensive interiors where to attack them. But that's not

376
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 2: what Allen and Singleton do. They go straight at the tackle,

377
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:46,919
Speaker 2: They go straight at Rouchie at right tackle, whoever's going

378
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,240
Speaker 2: to be in that spot, and they try to bounce

379
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,480
Speaker 2: out and create an explosive Irish have the advantage here

380
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,919
Speaker 2: completely fifty eight percent success rate against outside zone. They

381
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 2: allow a big play on only six percent and a

382
00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 2: pin s wants to switch off and do you know

383
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 2: gap man, you know straight up hand off the ball.

384
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 2: Not They gave sixty seven percent against that success rate

385
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 2: only allows six percent big play rate. I think the

386
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 2: Penn State offense on the ground is probably going to

387
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 2: average two point five to three yards per carry and

388
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:14,920
Speaker 2: it's just not gonna get pretty and it's not gonna

389
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 2: get first downs. Now, when we go to this passing game, do.

390
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 1: You agree with me that they got to hit explosives

391
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 1: to the receivers.

392
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 2: They do, And this is where this is where is

393
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:27,360
Speaker 2: cotal Nikki watching the USC tape And I say that

394
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 2: because if you want to beat Notre Dame, I think

395
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:32,959
Speaker 2: this is the prototype. USC came out and had a

396
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,199
Speaker 2: ten play drive to start the game, turnover on downs.

397
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 2: After that drive, Lincoln Riley threw everything away and had

398
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 2: sixteen of the next twenty two first downs start with

399
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 2: a pass. They had a fifty percent first down rush

400
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:53,360
Speaker 2: rate before that. Like they went ham on first down

401
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 2: pass and that, and like.

402
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 1: I think Tomia third forty eight times. I think maybe

403
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 1: thirty five of them were outside ashes.

404
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,879
Speaker 2: After that first drive, they were like, screw it, we're

405
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 2: going past and we are going at him. I think

406
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,640
Speaker 2: it's worth noting Codl Nicki's what he does and scripted

407
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 2: and what they do in adjustments. Codl Nicky a very

408
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 2: respectable plus five point eight points offensively in the first quarter,

409
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 2: one of the highest second quarter totals at twelve point five.

410
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 2: You can adjust against Cotl Nicky and he is going

411
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 2: to be able to adjust back. It's the second half

412
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 2: where he is really cooled off. So keep that in

413
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 2: mind if you're live betting a total. Like I agree

414
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 2: with you completely on the total. I just think of

415
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,640
Speaker 2: codl Nicky has some success, which I'm going to get

416
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 2: to the receivers here. Like you mentioned, I think he

417
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 2: will have success in the first quarter until Al Golden,

418
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:44,000
Speaker 2: the defensive coordinator of Notre Dame, realizes what's going on,

419
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 2: makes the changes. I think the second half is going

420
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 2: to be fascinating, which Golden should rule. Now Aler, let's

421
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 2: talk about Drawler because you've heard me terp just all year.

422
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 2: This kid does not make mistakes in a pressured pocket. Well,

423
00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,439
Speaker 2: I got my eyes on him the entire game, and

424
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 2: I've kind of changed my opinion of this kid. He's

425
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 2: going to see a ton of man coverage here from

426
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 2: Notre Dame. He's going to see some cover. One he's

427
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 2: been pretty good against that fifty nine percent success rate.

428
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 2: He's got a high EPA. But look at the defenses

429
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: maybe that he's faced. I think the problem for me

430
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,360
Speaker 2: is what happens when he gets pressure. Now Notre Dame

431
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 2: is let me talk about the passing real quick. Notre

432
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 2: Dame is seventh and contested catch rate. There is one

433
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 2: corner you can pick on. It's Christian Gray, and he

434
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 2: always lines up at right corner. He's always on the

435
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,479
Speaker 2: right side of the offense. He's allowed three straight games

436
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,479
Speaker 2: of opposing quarterbacks NFL rating to be over one hundred

437
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 2: in those three games USC, Indiana and Georgia fifteen catches

438
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 2: on twenty two targets. He has allowed a ton of yards,

439
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 2: and you ask who will be lining up against him.

440
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 2: I love Amari Evans like you do. He is hot,

441
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,360
Speaker 2: he is rising. I don't think he's peaked. But he's

442
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 2: going to draw Leonard Moore, and Leonard Moore has been

443
00:23:55,880 --> 00:24:00,160
Speaker 2: fantastic in single coverage. Harrison Wallace is the one it's

444
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 2: going to draw Christian Gray. So in the app I

445
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 2: did put in Harrison Wallace over forty one and a

446
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 2: half yards. If you want to go head to head

447
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 2: on Evans yards versus my yard's number for Wallace, we

448
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 2: can do that and put on the board if people

449
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 2: new a board bet. But I think Harrison Wallace is

450
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 2: the one that's going to be picking on Christian Gray

451
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 2: simply because these two it's exactly where they line up.

452
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 2: Now let's talk about the rush, because this is where

453
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 2: I made the bet. On Notre Dame and I was,

454
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 2: I mean to.

455
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: Be fair with Evans lined up wide. Well, last week

456
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 1: he lined up in the slat twelve times left, left,

457
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 1: twelve times right twelve. So maybe he'll get some looks

458
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 1: because I agree that Gray can be a little flat

459
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 1: footed at times, yes, and he's attackable.

460
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it seems like that's like Harrison Wall's a spot.

461
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 1: I don't mind while overs either. So yeah, this Penn

462
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 1: State has to hit explosives. There's going to be opportunities

463
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 1: to do it.

464
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 2: Yep. But there's a problem and it's the pressure. Boise

465
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 2: State for the first quarter was dominated. And you know

466
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 2: why they were dominated because the defensive cord Eric Sanderson,

467
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 2: four rushers.

468
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:04,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, they couldn't get any pressure.

469
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 2: They couldn't get any Then they decided to go five

470
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 2: plus and they and there is tape out there on

471
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,199
Speaker 2: YouTube and I mentioned it in full preview over an

472
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 2: Action network, and I give credit to the guy that

473
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 2: made this tape. Boise State started doing acts crossers. They

474
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 2: started using their defensive tackle to stick Nick Dawkins the

475
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 2: center and they use a linebacker to loop around. Here's

476
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 2: the problem. Not only did that offensive line have a

477
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 2: hell of a time ever. Picking that up, Drew Aller

478
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 2: went up to the line of scrimmage and switched the

479
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 2: protection multiple times in the second, third, and fourth quarter,

480
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,239
Speaker 2: and every time he did it he was wrong. The

481
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,400
Speaker 2: Penn State offensive line would shift left, they would slide right.

482
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 2: They missed every single time. So as much so.

483
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 1: Singleton's not great and passed. He missed some blocks too.

484
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 2: He's not. But Aler changed the protection and Dawkins like

485
00:25:57,520 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 2: like you can see Dawkins nod, turn around, tell the

486
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 2: line and they slid the wrong way. It's on hour.

487
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 2: It's completely on hour. And here's the other problem. Yes,

488
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 2: he has not created a turnover worthy play in one

489
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty something pressures this year. Right because he

490
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 2: doesn't throw it away. The kid is incapable of throwing

491
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 2: the ball away. He had one throwaway on a rollout

492
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 2: that was I thought he was going to break his

493
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 2: leg just running. He takes way too many sacks. And

494
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 2: to give you an idea, who is one team on

495
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 2: the schedule that really gave them a lot of problems

496
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 2: gave Penn State problems that you didn't expect. It was Minnesota.

497
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 2: When you look at Minnesota, Smu Boise and Ohio State.

498
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 2: They all generated double digit pressures in those games. Aller

499
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 2: took eleven sacks and he only had three throwaways. Yeah,

500
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 2: he won't put you in jeopardy by throwing an interception

501
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,640
Speaker 2: because he doesn't throw it away at all. He will

502
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: tuck it and take a sack and that completely takes

503
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 2: Penn State's offense out of the mix. Also, two point

504
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,360
Speaker 2: nine seconds before release, and I get it. Sometimes you're

505
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 2: waiting for Tyler Warren to float from the left side

506
00:26:58,160 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 2: of the field to the right side of the field,

507
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 2: and some of those passes can be long. But that's

508
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 2: a real number that is just not going to fly

509
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 2: at the NFL level. So you look at what Notre

510
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:11,120
Speaker 2: Dame did. Al Golden must be watching those acts crossers

511
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 2: by defensive tackles and the linebackers and the loops and

512
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 2: just dreaming up schemes of where he's going to bring

513
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 2: pressure because the offensive line alar can id it. The

514
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,479
Speaker 2: offensive line slides the wrong way. And Notre Dame what

515
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 2: you saw against Georgia was a masterpiece, and I think

516
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 2: you're going to see it again. Notre Dame nine tackles

517
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,880
Speaker 2: for lost, four sacks, thirteen pressures, against Georgia's offensive line.

518
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:36,919
Speaker 2: That's a real problem, and I think Penn State a

519
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 2: lot of drives are going to end on that. And

520
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 2: if Aler cannot pick up protection packages, we're going to

521
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 2: get our shots with our wide receiver stuck, We're going

522
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 2: to get them. But I think Aler is going to

523
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 2: take them out of drives by his bad decision making

524
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 2: and telling Nick Dawkins where the production protection should be.

525
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 2: So I'm on Notre Dame money line, I agree with

526
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 2: I make it two, so I agree with you three.

527
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 2: You got to buy it that. That's just a smart

528
00:27:58,119 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 2: way to play.

529
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: This up ten to eight and head to heads. Do

530
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 1: you want to put Penn State Notre Dame. I'll give

531
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 1: you even money on money line?

532
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean okay, listen, we're the podcast that

533
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,719
Speaker 2: came out. I said, Notre Dame Ohio State National Championship.

534
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 2: I'm not backing off of that.

535
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 1: By the way, I talked about a future last week

536
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: Ohio State plus three fifty plus three forty there it was, Yeah,

537
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 1: guess who've forgot to beout? It? Me now their favorite?

538
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 2: But did you have a model of move What happened.

539
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 1: Here completely slipped my mind. I'm so mad, so hopefully

540
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 1: a couple of you listen. By the way, for the

541
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 1: long shots in the same game price you can follow

542
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 1: all the same game parlays and all the long shots

543
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 1: from our experts who are much better than I am.

544
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: In the action app on one place, just follow Harley Express,

545
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: although I am six and one in player props this

546
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: My one loss was Nick Singleton over receiving yards. It's

547
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 1: been a really good Bowl season betting lines. But it's

548
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: not about how you start, it's about how you finish.

549
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the second semi final game on

550
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 1: Friday between Ohio State and Texas. I believe they've only

551
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 1: played three times in the past, the last being in

552
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: two thousand and nine. This game will we played Friday,

553
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 1: January tenth, seven thirty Eastern on ESPN. Football is king

554
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 1: in Texas. We thrive on it.

555
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 2: The entire state knew we were getting back to where

556
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 2: we expect to be, which is where we are right now.

557
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 1: Just hold on a second, there, cowboy. Let's settle it

558
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: on the field. Yes, the field the way. Extremely fit

559
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 1: unemployed students seeking a higher education often due come on,

560
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 1: and it's the Cotton Bowl Classic. I always want to

561
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 1: say it's at the Cotton Bowl, but it's now in Arlington,

562
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: a little bit of a home field advantage location wise

563
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 1: for Texas. I gave them a half.

564
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 2: Especially if everybody from Columbus can't fly in.

565
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 1: That's true as well. I give them a half point.

566
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 1: You could argue it's not worth anything. But as of

567
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: right now, Ohio States sitting as a six point favorite

568
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: total fifty three and a half. Believe that's been holding steady.

569
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 1: This game is very difficult because this is basically just

570
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: comes down to a market question. I said, OHASA is

571
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,640
Speaker 1: gonna win the title? After what I saw against Tennessee.

572
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: I said, I know it was narratively, but I think

573
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:26,239
Speaker 1: that they're going to take that Michigan loss and it's

574
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: going to fuel them to the national title. And then

575
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: they've looked unbelievably dominant the best two games, but during

576
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 1: the regular season it was not that way. You know,

577
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: they almost lost it arguably should have lost in Nebraska

578
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 1: at home. You lose to Michigan at home. It wasn't

579
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: pretty all year. Is this did they just turn it

580
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 1: on and this is the team that we can expect

581
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 1: because in a way, yeah, they just looked apart and

582
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm assuming they're going to take a ton

583
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: of money. Most the bets are going to be on them.

584
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 1: But and part of me says, they're the best team

585
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 1: in the country by far. The talent was always there.

586
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 1: But also the other part of my brain said, I mean,

587
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: just from a bi low cell high perspective, and this

588
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: is is this just the highest the peak that Ohio

589
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: State's ever going to be?

590
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 2: Your conundrum is twenty nineteen Joe Burrow LSU.

591
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, but they at least looked good all season. Yeah,

592
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: all season. This makes it even more difficult. And because

593
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 1: Ohio State hasn't but yeah, I mean, it's just if

594
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 1: they're gonna look like that, maybe the market hasn't caught

595
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 1: up enough. So I was all set to bet Ohio State,

596
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 1: but I after bumping Ohio State a lot the past

597
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 1: two weeks because they looked so dominant and downgrading Texas,

598
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: I was only at around four. So at six, I

599
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 1: show value in Texas. But here's the thing. So numbers wise,

600
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 1: I wanted to I came in, wanted to bet Ohio State,

601
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 1: but I can't at six. Numbers wise, I should bet Texas.

602
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: But here's the thing, Ohio State not only have they

603
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 1: looked great the past two weeks. Texas has not looked great,

604
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 1: and I am am I I'm a bit worried that

605
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 1: their defense might be overrated because come into the College

606
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: Twell playoff, I had them so top five defense, right

607
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 1: there with Ohio State. But if you look during the

608
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 1: regular season, they lost to Georgia twice, including the SEC championship.

609
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:14,719
Speaker 1: Here are the teams they beat, Colorado State, Michigan, UTSA,

610
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: ul Monroe, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Vandy, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas

611
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: A and M. There's not a top twenty five offense.

612
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: Maybe could argue Texas A and M. They're right on

613
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: the fringe. They didn't face and they faced Florida with

614
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 1: like their third string quarterback. They faced ul Monroe when

615
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 1: when General Booty was still the quarterback.

616
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 2: They didn't cover against Taylor Green in Arkansas.

617
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, but just for from A that was

618
00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: probably one of their most impressive defensive performances. Yep, that game,

619
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 1: the Texas A and M game. They shut down Texas

620
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: A and M. But I think ultimately TAXA A M

621
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 1: offense was overrated because they got a bump from like

622
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:00,480
Speaker 1: two games where they surprise other teams with the quarterback.

623
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 1: But then you go into the college football playoff, Clemson

624
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 1: is arguably maybe a top twenty offense. I have them

625
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: between twenty and twenty five. Clemson moved the ball well

626
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 1: on them and Kay Klebnick was throwing all over them.

627
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 1: And then Arizona State, you know, without their top receiver,

628
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 1: was able to move the ball. Sam Levitt, he wasn't

629
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: really efficient throwing the ball, but you know, Cam Skataboo

630
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 1: ran for one forty three, had one hundred yards receiving.

631
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 1: It wasn't the prettiest offensive out, but it looks a

632
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 1: lot better because they went to overtime and they scored

633
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 1: thirty one. But they moved the ball better than I

634
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 1: thought as that game progressed and they were able to

635
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 1: come back and they scored sixteen points in the fourth quarter.

636
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 1: So is the Texas defense overrated? And then I have

637
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 1: questions about the offense and that number one, why couldn't

638
00:33:55,880 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: they run the ball against Arizona State. That's extremely troubling

639
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 1: because everything for that Texas offense stems off of the

640
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 1: run game. I mean, Wisner and Blue had twenty two

641
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,959
Speaker 1: carries for forty nine yards, Like what against Arizona State's

642
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 1: undersized defensive line. Is yours healthy?

643
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 2: Like?

644
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 1: Is he's still dealing with stuff like his ankle is oblique?

645
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 1: I also think he is just deficiencies in general. Are

646
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 1: their tackles fully healthy? Isaiah Bond? Is he fully healthy?

647
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: And if they can't run the ball, are they going

648
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 1: to be able to have viewers consistently drop back and

649
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:40,879
Speaker 1: throw against this Ohio State defense? I have my doubts. So,

650
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 1: and then the other side I do, like the Texas secondary.

651
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 1: And then you have the Jim Thorpe Award winner John A.

652
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 1: Barron going up against Jeremiah Smith, who I would take

653
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 1: number one in the draft this year and he's not

654
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 1: even eligible to twenty twenty seven. But Baron's a significant

655
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 1: size disadvantage, Like is that are you able to just

656
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 1: put him one on one on Smith? I don't know.

657
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 1: So I'm so conflicted on this game. Curious to get

658
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 1: your thoughts.

659
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jeremiah Smith thing versus Baron is more like college

660
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 2: basketball when the big guy comes down at the rebound,

661
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 2: you're trying to pop it out of his hands.

662
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:26,320
Speaker 1: Smith is, like, I mean, he is unbelievable, Like DK

663
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 1: metcalf Leo Jones vibes.

664
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 2: Which side of the ball do you want to start

665
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 2: to start on? First?

666
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 1: So let's start with the Texas defense. Is this defense overrated?

667
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 2: Well, first off, I'll say that there's an acc crew here,

668
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 2: so I'm already done. Ready, yeah, get ready, listen? Is

669
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,600
Speaker 2: it justified? I think we should start with with power

670
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,879
Speaker 2: ratings that people respect. If you respect mine, I'm at three.

671
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 2: If you respect Saggeran, they're at three point two. And

672
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 2: if you respect s P plus and Bill Connley, you're

673
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 2: four point eight. Nobody's at six. That doesn't mean that

674
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: it can't cover. It just means that's the reason you're

675
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 2: hearing a lot of conflicted betters like myself and Stucky.

676
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 2: They're like, what are we looking at here? The Ohio

677
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 2: State offense end defense is real? And we talked about

678
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 2: the Rose Bowl at length.

679
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 1: I know, but what it's rather, I know one person

680
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 1: I really respect it is it right around six? But

681
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,720
Speaker 1: it just comes down to like how higher or lower?

682
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 1: Right right right? It's it's it's it's just it comes

683
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:37,360
Speaker 1: down to how much do you upgrade Texas? Also, I

684
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:39,800
Speaker 1: think gets down like how much do you downgrade Texas?

685
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 1: For the past two games and you listen, then how

686
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:46,319
Speaker 1: much do you upgrade Ohio State for like separating just

687
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:49,320
Speaker 1: these two data points, It's very difficult to do versus

688
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,839
Speaker 1: their whole season because the potential was always there, they

689
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 1: didn't really live up to it. But now like where

690
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,359
Speaker 1: they're holding things back, they've unleashed the offense, the town

691
00:36:56,480 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 1: is there, and like just that aggressive, that aggressiveness in

692
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 1: how you adjust Ohio State. Ah, it is not an

693
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:06,479
Speaker 1: easy thing to do.

694
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 2: This late in the season and you listen to Sark

695
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 2: his words, we had a bad game against Clemson, against

696
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:17,359
Speaker 2: Arizona State, his words, they executed what Kenny called they

697
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 2: executed so his words, right, So when are we going

698
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,319
Speaker 2: to When are we going to get the Texas team

699
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:27,360
Speaker 2: that we've seen all season, who's only taken losses to Georgia,

700
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,879
Speaker 2: right and no one else. Let's start on the Ohio

701
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 2: State offensive side of the ball. So the whole dynamic

702
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 2: has changed because Chip Kelly has stepped out of his

703
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 2: running grit mode and once aggressive downfield passing. Will Howard

704
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 2: over the last two games has been perfect, five big

705
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 2: time throws, no turnover worthy plays. It's interesting to note

706
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 2: that the Rose Bowl there were only three wide receivers

707
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,800
Speaker 2: that caught passes. The two of them, you know, a

708
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 2: mecha egg Buka out of the slot, Jeremiah Smith at

709
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,399
Speaker 2: the white out position. There's nothing wrong with this running game.

710
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 2: There's there's no reason why they decided to go pass

711
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:01,320
Speaker 2: instead of run. Quinch On Junkins, Trevion Henderson.

712
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 1: Dangerous pass opens up the run even more right. And then,

713
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: by the way, this offensive line team's to be coming

714
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 1: together as well.

715
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 2: Yep, and Chip Kelly is still running inside zone, outside zone.

716
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 2: You can run any run concept. He once they had

717
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 2: one hundred and sevent nine yards. The Texas defense peak

718
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,840
Speaker 2: Kwaitakowski's three three five has just been destroyed over the middle.

719
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 2: It was the reason you and I spent thirty minutes

720
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 2: just haggling over Clemson Texas and the points spread, and

721
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 2: I wanted fourteen. It's like I knew Texas were going

722
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 2: to get attacked over the middle the tight end Jake

723
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 2: brenningstool and slot Antonio Williams. Texas just couldn't stop that

724
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 2: Arizona State. The reason I took that number. I knew

725
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 2: they were going to go over the middle of Camp

726
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 2: Scataboo and Melkwon Stovle. They had nineteen targets over the

727
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 2: middle night, so the numbers for the sun Devils, though,

728
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 2: I think where I can start to make a case

729
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,760
Speaker 2: for Texas because this is how you have to handicap

730
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 2: this game. Is there an avenue for the Longhorns to

731
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,280
Speaker 2: cover not win the game? Can they cover? And here's

732
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 2: where we start. Levels went over the middle too, nineteen

733
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 2: targets to those two names that I mentioned, but they

734
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 2: didn't get a lot of yards after catch and they

735
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 2: didn't produce a lot. The one person that is consistently

736
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:13,720
Speaker 2: having problems that has not cleaned up their coverage grades

737
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 2: is outside linebacker Anthony Hill Junior. He that is the

738
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,760
Speaker 2: piece that there everyone's going to go after. I expect

739
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 2: Trevion Henderson to attack the middle directly. He averaged one

740
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 2: point eight receptions per game over the season, but he's

741
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 2: had nine targets in the last two games. Henderson is

742
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 2: going at Anthony Hill of the Texas defense. His season

743
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 2: average is fourteen point seven yards receiving, but he's gone

744
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,879
Speaker 2: nineteen yards or more receiving in six of the last

745
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 2: seven games. I took Trevion Henderson over receiving yards in

746
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 2: the app. I love that for that perspective because I

747
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 2: think the safeties and the corners, everybody else cleaned up

748
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 2: their grades. Jaylon Gilbo, Malik Muhammad, they both came to

749
00:39:55,280 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: respectable season long coverage grades. You know, anytime I'm TD

750
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 2: on a Mecca Agbuca, probably at play depends on the

751
00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:05,759
Speaker 2: price because he will line up in the slot and

752
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 2: go over the middle too, and sometimes get matched up

753
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 2: on a linebacker that he can take advantage of. The

754
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:11,840
Speaker 2: problem is he's had ten tds on the season. He

755
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 2: only had two in the last five games. Either he's

756
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,240
Speaker 2: due or he's just not a part of the package

757
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:17,839
Speaker 2: in the red zone. So the only prop that I

758
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 2: like for Ohio State on the offensive side is Henderson

759
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 2: receiving yards because he's going straight at that linebacker in

760
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 2: the middle. The Jeremiah Smith thing is interesting. I would

761
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 2: actually let that number float on his yards and maybe

762
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 2: take the under. I think Baron is going to find

763
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 2: a way to get enough stops for him on the outside.

764
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 2: He's just been a savior at the corner position. He

765
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,719
Speaker 2: was playing nickel. They moved him to the outside. Five interceptions,

766
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,280
Speaker 2: nine PBUs. There's a reason he won the Jim Thorpe.

767
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,919
Speaker 2: That is a great matchup that on the All twenty

768
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 2: two is going to be fascinating. From a rushing perspective,

769
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 2: Texas the defense just struggles with inside zone. And this

770
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 2: is where I'm like, is Chip going to go back

771
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 2: to running the ball all the time? They Texas defense

772
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 2: cannot defend inside zone. I expect Henderson and Junkins to

773
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,720
Speaker 2: feast on the inside in the Texas de Vince's seventy

774
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 2: fifth and mistackles allowed, so I don't see a lot

775
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 2: of resistance. But I've seen we're.

776
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 1: Gonna put Smith in the slot at times too, which

777
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 1: is also just a cheat code, which is scary.

778
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:15,279
Speaker 2: That's bad. If you can live better Smith TD. If

779
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 2: you see them line up in the slot, that'd be something.

780
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 2: But I think overall, I've seen everybody clean up their

781
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:24,359
Speaker 2: coverage grades, clean up their yards after catch, except for

782
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 2: linebacker Anthony Hill Junior. So I'd see more hurdles than

783
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 2: what Oregon threw up. I see more hurdles than what

784
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 2: Clemson threw up. I'm sorry, I more hurdles and what

785
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 2: Tennessee threw up. From a defensive perspective, I do think

786
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 2: Texas can try to keep this within the number. It's

787
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 2: the other side of Texas.

788
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 1: Texas secondary is significantly more talented than the Tennessee secondary. Yeah.

789
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's the other side of the ball

790
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 2: that put me on Texas plus six, which I am invested.

791
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:53,560
Speaker 2: I think I think the numbers two I and I

792
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 2: think there are reasons. So, you know, on the other

793
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 2: side of the ball, red zones and finishing drives have

794
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 2: not been a problem. You know, the Peach Bowl saw

795
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 2: three point nine average yard for finishing drives. If you

796
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 2: look at the two playoff games for Sarkesian's offense, eight

797
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 2: trips to the red zone, four touchdowns, two field goals.

798
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 2: He would take that any day. That's above season average

799
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 2: numbers for what he does in the red zone. We

800
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 2: mentioned that Arizona State and quinn Ewers last week. What

801
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 2: was my big prop him to go over his passing yards?

802
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:27,760
Speaker 2: I think it was two sixty somewhere around there. Well,

803
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 2: the handicap was that he dominates Cover one. Well, he

804
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 2: ended up with three hundred and twenty two and the

805
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 2: heaviest package used by Jim Knowles and his Nickel defense

806
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 2: is Cover one. And we talked at length in last

807
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 2: week's podcast about the movement of Jordan Hancock back to

808
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 2: the single high safety to allow Caleb Downs to roam

809
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,879
Speaker 2: the reasonable house zone. Yeah, and the reasona House State

810
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,839
Speaker 2: has been so elite on defense is because no one's

811
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 2: getting past these guys on the ground, like they're not

812
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:56,359
Speaker 2: giving up explosives. They are elite tacklers. But let's talk

813
00:42:56,400 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 2: about coverage for just a second here. Jordan Hancock is

814
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 2: not the greatest coverage single high safety. You know, if

815
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,319
Speaker 2: you go and look at his receiving grades, He's going

816
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,480
Speaker 2: to be matched up one on one against Matthew Golden

817
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 2: and a couple of downfield shots. Now, remember, I'm going

818
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 2: to get to a point that really made up my

819
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 2: mind on this game. But Matthew Golden has been on

820
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 2: fire ten targets against Arizona State for one hundred and

821
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 2: forty nine yards. He's had three hundred and nine receiving

822
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 2: yards in the last two playoff games. He gets one

823
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:26,239
Speaker 2: on old with Jordan Hancock, he can take one to

824
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 2: the house. So I would like Matthew Golden's yards on

825
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 2: the over for a PROP, but he's only had one

826
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 2: TD in the last five games. I'd stay away from

827
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 2: any time TDS as far as I have no expectations

828
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,799
Speaker 2: Texas can run. Here, we mentioned it. Weisner blew the

829
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:42,439
Speaker 2: stat that I tweeted out.

830
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 1: Rundy the last couple weeks. I mean, granted there were

831
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 1: some you know, they've earned favorable game states and both

832
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 1: Oregon and Tennessee at running back injuries right, which is

833
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 1: worth noting. But man, they were stout up front and

834
00:43:56,920 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 1: weren't allowing just any holes or any opportunities for backs.

835
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 1: I'm just so concerned that everything flows from the Texas running.

836
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 1: They couldn't run it against Arizona State. That's very troublesome

837
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:11,240
Speaker 1: to me because I don't know if I trust viewers

838
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 1: to just drop back without placs, without the screens, and

839
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 1: consistently move the ball to keep up with Ohio State.

840
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 2: I think there's two things going on that the one

841
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 2: tweet that I put out where Oregon was stuffed on

842
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 2: eighteen of twenty carries. Listen, the national stuff rate is

843
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 2: thirty percent. You stuffed eighteen of twenty carries. That's absolutely insane.

844
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 2: And Knowle's his defense dominates outside zone. I don't expect

845
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 2: Texas to run the ball at all. So I go

846
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 2: back to Hancock, who was actually in the game plan

847
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 2: against Oregon, Orgon targeted him seven times, the highest he's

848
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 2: been targeted all season. They caught five against him, and

849
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 2: he gave up twenty four yards after catch. That is

850
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 2: the avenue for Texas in the passing game. Then let's

851
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 2: go to ers and blitz. I think I've finally figured

852
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 2: out why Sark has stuck by youers the entire year.

853
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 2: These numbers. For some reason, I concentrate more on pressure

854
00:45:06,040 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 2: in my handicap than I do the blitz. Right, It's

855
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 2: two different things. You can create pressure with three, you

856
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 2: can create pressure with four. But what happens when you're

857
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 2: sending extra guys on stunts? These numbers are crazy, Like,

858
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 2: not only do youwers kill cover one, but he's twenty

859
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 2: eight percent of viewers' dropbacks have had blitz. He's produced

860
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 2: a moderate success rate of fifty percent. His EPA is

861
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 2: through the roof. When wers has seen blitz, twelve tds

862
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 2: to four. I INT's a twenty two point four percent

863
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:38,280
Speaker 2: big play rate. And if you want to go even farther,

864
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:42,879
Speaker 2: when he sees five or more viewers has fifteen big

865
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,720
Speaker 2: time throws to three turnover worthy plays. The place to attack.

866
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 2: Ohio State is Sunny Styles and Cody Simon the linebackers.

867
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 2: If viewers sees a stunt and cover one, he's going

868
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 2: to eat Ohio State's defense up Sunny Styles. Cody Simon,

869
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 2: the linebacker of Hoose State, gave up fifteen catches on

870
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 2: sixteen targets in their last game for one hundred and

871
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 2: forty six yards and seventy seven yards after the catch.

872
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 2: I want a gunner Helm the tight end, the one

873
00:46:11,920 --> 00:46:15,719
Speaker 2: who's catching all the touchdown in both playoff games. I

874
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 2: want a gun or Helm anytime TD for Texas. Ewers

875
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 2: is a lead against Cover one Viewers is beyond explosive

876
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 2: when it comes to identifying blitz when teams send five

877
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 2: or more? So is there an avenue for Texas? That's

878
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 2: the handicap everybody? Is there an avenue to cover the points?

879
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 2: My answer is yes, Ohio State by five, four three,

880
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 2: fine at six, there's an avenue for Texas.

881
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like Helm targeting Helm props. I might have

882
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 1: some helme props. I also, because of Baron's size disadvantage,

883
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 1: you might I might go like put Baron Onbuka and

884
00:46:55,680 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 1: then Bill Belichick this and then have have help on

885
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 1: Smith just I don't know. I'm curious to see how

886
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 1: they end up playing that.

887
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:14,839
Speaker 2: Any possibility that Sark and Quitkowski is kind of base

888
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 2: defenseeing this until this point.

889
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 1: It's possible. I mean, here's the thing, the other thing

890
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:25,560
Speaker 1: that I I'm you know, I'll put Texas for an

891
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 1: agree I'm gonna put Texas on the board the agree to.

892
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 2: Okay, all right? As I was feeling, I feel after after.

893
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 1: My numbers show value in it, and after the Twitter.

894
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 2: TI rate, I felt like I was on an island

895
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:40,640
Speaker 2: with this Texas thing. I've felt all week like I'm

896
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 2: on a island with this Texas thing. But I did

897
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 2: my due diligence. I did my ex's and o's, I

898
00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 2: did it.

899
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:46,919
Speaker 1: My number of show all in it. But I'm I'm

900
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:50,360
Speaker 1: just afraid that I'm not aggressively like and I do

901
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 1: have my concerns about Texas. So it's not like my

902
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 1: favorite bet ever, right, I do show valiant, I will

903
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:59,720
Speaker 1: say also psychologic. One of the reasons I like, Oh

904
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 1: Stay to win the national title, and again it's narratively,

905
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 1: is that they were embarrassed. They were written off after

906
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:11,359
Speaker 1: that Michigan game, right, and then you saw them against Tennessee.

907
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:13,879
Speaker 1: Everyone already written them off. They came in that game

908
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 1: hair on fire, dominated from the opening step. Then they're underdogs.

909
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 1: I mean like they're they're playing a team, they're small favorites.

910
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 1: They're playing a team that already beat them in Oregon undefeated.

911
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 1: Now they win those two games, everyone in the world

912
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 1: is crowding the national title champions. Go listen to anyone

913
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 1: talk about winning it? All? Right? They did they have?

914
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:44,840
Speaker 1: Do they come out with that same fire that was

915
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 1: fueling them from a just a human perspective or do

916
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 1: we see like a flat I know it's a playoff game,

917
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:55,120
Speaker 1: but just like, do they have that because we've seen

918
00:48:55,160 --> 00:48:59,040
Speaker 1: them be flat? How are they not up for Michigan? Now,

919
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:03,359
Speaker 1: some of it was played calling, but the Nebraska game,

920
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:09,399
Speaker 1: so like that psychological edge? Does that now go to Texas?

921
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 1: Like Texas comes in as the underdog. Something worth noting

922
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 1: that I.

923
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:16,799
Speaker 2: Did you put in your hand? Did you put in

924
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 2: your handicap that Bevo, Matthew McConaughey and the Undertaker will

925
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 2: all be on the sidelines for Texas. I'm just kidding.

926
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 2: There is room for Beavo in at and T Stadium.

927
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 2: There wasn't in the Peachabowl, which.

928
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:31,440
Speaker 1: Would be nice. But yeah, so maybe we'll be me

929
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 1: the only ones on Texas Island. Okay, but it's not

930
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:38,920
Speaker 1: the most confident I've ever been in a bet. I agree.

931
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that. Oh you would you have the

932
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:42,840
Speaker 1: same game parlay for this?

933
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's I mean, just to summarize everything with Texas

934
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,400
Speaker 2: plus six Traveon Henderson, I took it nineteen and a

935
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 2: half in the app before we recorded podcasts, I saw

936
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:52,879
Speaker 2: twenty a half Travon Henderson over twenty and a half

937
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 2: receiving yards Gunner Helm anytime TD I saw it plus

938
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 2: two twenty. That is a plus ten sixty single game parlay.

939
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff. That'll do it for us. Thanks

940
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:07,800
Speaker 1: the conferen joining me, Thanks to our producer Matt Mitchell

941
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 1: on the back end. It's putably thanks to all of

942
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 1: you for tuning in. We do have one more episode

943
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:21,839
Speaker 1: which we will record on Thursday, January sixteenth, preview the championship.

944
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 1: Some prop looks we like side total by the way

945
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:27,799
Speaker 1: I think you do allho to say Texas totals basically right,

946
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 1: and then we will have our award show spectacular hand

947
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 1: out the gambling, Heisman Voicemail, Best of the Voicemails, voicemail

948
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 1: Call of the Year, etc. Etc. Be a fun recap episode.

949
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,800
Speaker 1: By the way, college basketball, I'll be making my debut

950
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 1: on that this week Thursdays for those episodes, but that

951
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:51,279
Speaker 1: will do it for us. Enjoy the semifinals. Enjoy a

952
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 1: blissful weekend of football Thursday Friday, then NFL Playoffs on Saturday, Sunday, Monday.

953
00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:59,240
Speaker 1: Actually Network podcast for the NFL wild Card weekend betting

954
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 1: for you thanks to good luck on all of your wagers.

955
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 1: Make sure you subscribe on subscrap Subscribe tel friend Tone

956
00:51:03,760 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 1: unemy lea five star review really helps us out. We

957
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,640
Speaker 1: will catch y'all later in the week. Cheers.

958
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 2: Piss Out. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

959
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:25,240
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

960
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

961
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler