WEBVTT - What The 'Lentil King of Saskatchewan' Knows About World Trade

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Locks podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Jill Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy. Canadian elections

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<v Speaker 2>last night.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, big event. I think a lot of people are

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<v Speaker 3>talking about it in the context of US politics. Right,

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<v Speaker 3>So we just saw Mark Karney and the Liberals win,

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<v Speaker 3>and in a lot of ways, I think people would

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<v Speaker 3>agree that Mark Carney's sort of the antithesis of Trump, right,

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<v Speaker 3>He's the sort of globalization Davos, former central banker guy.

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<v Speaker 3>And the funny thing is, or the slightly ironic thing

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<v Speaker 3>is it seems like Trump might have swung the election

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<v Speaker 3>in the direction of the girls.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, yeah, you go back like three months ago or

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<v Speaker 2>four months ago or something, and it just seemed guaranteed

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<v Speaker 2>that the Conservatives Pierre Pluliev was going to win. And

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<v Speaker 2>then Trump started talking about making Canada the fifty first state,

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<v Speaker 2>and suddenly fortunes turned very quickly. But that was just

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<v Speaker 2>a news hook. We're not really doing a Canadian politics

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<v Speaker 2>episode today, per se.

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<v Speaker 3>We're doing something better.

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<v Speaker 2>We're doing something better. The real reason that we're doing

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<v Speaker 2>this episode, this just happened to be good timing for

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<v Speaker 2>the hook. The real reason we're doing this episode is

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<v Speaker 2>that several weeks ago, I was reading an article and

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<v Speaker 2>I saw a title about a man named the lentil

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<v Speaker 2>King of Saskatchewan, or not named but titled as such,

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<v Speaker 2>and I thought to myself, the lentil King of Saskatchewan

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<v Speaker 2>sounds like a great odd lots character, someone that we

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<v Speaker 2>should talk to to learn about a very specific business

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<v Speaker 2>and how it works.

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<v Speaker 3>The lentil King of Saskatchewan, the Sultan of split Peas,

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<v Speaker 3>the Grand Poopa of pulses, the Baron of beans, Monarch

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<v Speaker 3>of multi grains. I can keep going.

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<v Speaker 2>You did your prep. That's really good. Anyway, do we

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<v Speaker 2>have the lentil King of Saskatchewan on the podcast today

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<v Speaker 2>and we are going to really learn about how the

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<v Speaker 2>international pulses and grains trade actually work. What does it mean,

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<v Speaker 2>How does trading work with us, how does it work

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<v Speaker 2>with the rest of the world. How do you build

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<v Speaker 2>that supply chain.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm also just incredibly surprised that Canada is such a

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<v Speaker 3>big player in this market. I think it exports like

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<v Speaker 3>a third of the world's lentil crop something like that.

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<v Speaker 3>That's kind of crazy.

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<v Speaker 2>That is a lot of lentils. But they have a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of land in Canada for this type of thing.

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<v Speaker 2>Not a ton of people, a lot of land. Anyway,

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<v Speaker 2>let's learn all about the lentil trade, the pulse trade,

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<v Speaker 2>the grain trade and so forth.

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<v Speaker 3>Are we going to take the pulse of the pulse trade.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to take the pulse of the pulse trade.

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<v Speaker 2>We are speaking with Marad al Katib. He is the

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<v Speaker 2>president and CEO of AGT Food and Ingredients, credited with

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<v Speaker 2>turn Saskatchewan into such a powerhouse of trade from a

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<v Speaker 2>lentil So, Marian, thank you so much for coming on odlot.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, thanks for having me.

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<v Speaker 2>What did you start with? What does the lentil King

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<v Speaker 2>of Saskatchewan do tell us about the business of an

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<v Speaker 2>AGT Food and ingredient.

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<v Speaker 3>Is it good to be the lentil King.

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<v Speaker 4>It's definitely been an interesting career for me to kind

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<v Speaker 4>of contribute to the transformation of agriculture out in Western Canada. So,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, coming up on twenty five years since I

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<v Speaker 4>made a decision to quit my job in government at

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<v Speaker 4>the Governor of Saskatchewan and move to the basement of

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<v Speaker 4>my house and drive the transformation of a cropping system that.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, when I was a kid growing up in

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<v Speaker 4>a little town called Davidson, Saskatchewan, we grew wheat and

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<v Speaker 4>we grew canola, and then the farmers had to leave

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<v Speaker 4>their soil to summer follow because the nitrogen fertilizer that

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<v Speaker 4>they used in canola and the oil seed was so

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<v Speaker 4>heavy that the soil needed to replenish naturally. The alternative

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<v Speaker 4>to that to plant and nitrogen fixing legume, so lentils, chickpeas,

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<v Speaker 4>peas beans. These crops actually fix nitrogen. They don't require

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<v Speaker 4>nitrogen fertilizer. And so, you know, that was my bet.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, I was a twenty seven year old young

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<v Speaker 4>entrepreneur who kind of looked at this situation and said,

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<v Speaker 4>look agronomically, if we can grow these things, the world

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<v Speaker 4>demands them. They're protein crops. If we could intersect, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>taking our summer follow into protein and reaching global markets,

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<v Speaker 4>I could create a business. And that was kind of

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<v Speaker 4>the premise. So it's been quite exciting to build a

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<v Speaker 4>multi billion dollar company based round the Regina, Saskatchewan, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>to kind of reach the world, drive the Canadian trade,

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<v Speaker 4>and participate in growing and consolidating a global supply chain

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<v Speaker 4>in this business.

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<v Speaker 3>So how big a player is Canada nowadays in pulses

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<v Speaker 3>and grains and lentils and all those things I mentioned

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<v Speaker 3>earlier that I think it produces like a third of

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<v Speaker 3>the world's life until crop I did see an estimate

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<v Speaker 3>that said sixty percent of the world's lentil crops. I

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<v Speaker 3>went with the third trying to be conservative here, but

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<v Speaker 3>like give us some context around where Canada sits in

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<v Speaker 3>this space.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, we would be more depend on the crop year,

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<v Speaker 4>but somewhere around fifty percent or more of the world trades.

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<v Speaker 4>So wow. You know, you have to recognize that the

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<v Speaker 4>traditional growth of these crops were in areas where they

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<v Speaker 4>consumed them, right Turkey, Middle East, India. India is the

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<v Speaker 4>biggest giant in this business, you know, with all of

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<v Speaker 4>the vegetarians. You know, you look at one point three

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<v Speaker 4>billion people, four hundred and fifty million vegetarians. Vegetable protein

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<v Speaker 4>is essential for the diet of countries, you know, in

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<v Speaker 4>the emerging market. So you know, they grow them and

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<v Speaker 4>they consume them. Well, what was missing was global supply

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<v Speaker 4>in nations that could grow them but not consume them,

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<v Speaker 4>but export them. And so that's where you know Canada

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<v Speaker 4>came into the play, Australia, the United States. Now we

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<v Speaker 4>have emerging origins like Extan, Russia, Ukraine. You know, the

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<v Speaker 4>the global consumption of these crops are over one hundred

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<v Speaker 4>million tons. Now, you know, because you know you're talking

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<v Speaker 4>about the traditional crops that we consume. Let's let's talk

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<v Speaker 4>about the traditional diet of the world. Let's do it rice.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, rice is six percent protein, corn eight percent protein,

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<v Speaker 4>lentils twenty two percent protein, faba beans thirty four percent protein,

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<v Speaker 4>chickbas twenty six percent protein. I mean, these crops are

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<v Speaker 4>not in the same class when it comes to protein availability,

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<v Speaker 4>and the world is in a global protein deficit. So

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<v Speaker 4>you know, we can we always forget one thing. We

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<v Speaker 4>talk a lot about energy and energy security. We talk

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<v Speaker 4>about you know, oil and gas, but we have to

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<v Speaker 4>recognize that protein and you know, diets are human energy.

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<v Speaker 4>And so when we look at that there's a protein

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<v Speaker 4>deficit in the world, it's causing major socioeconomic problems. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>let's look at a country like India. Eighteen percent of

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<v Speaker 4>children in India are stunted due to protein deficiency. Right,

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<v Speaker 4>the world has you know, eight hundred billion people who

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<v Speaker 4>are malnourished on a daily basis, over two billion people

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<v Speaker 4>who are food insecure on a daily basis. So this

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<v Speaker 4>has become one of society's global challenges. Ten billion people

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<v Speaker 4>by twenty fifty quantifies it to a statistic where in

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<v Speaker 4>the next forty years we have to produce the same

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<v Speaker 4>amount of food that the world produced in the last

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<v Speaker 4>ten thousand years of civilization. Just wrap your head around that,

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<v Speaker 4>go back ten thousand years, go head forty years. You've

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<v Speaker 4>got to equal food production. And that's only if we

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<v Speaker 4>curb food waste and we actually can store the crops

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<v Speaker 4>that we harvest. So you know, when you look at it,

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<v Speaker 4>it's a global challenge. And land and water are not

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<v Speaker 4>being created, so those are the scarcest resources in the world.

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<v Speaker 4>And Canada is blessed with a northern hemisphere. You know

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<v Speaker 4>that ultimately is more resilient on climate change. We have

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<v Speaker 4>arable land and water, and we have the best farmers

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<v Speaker 4>in the world with technology and innovation driving sector. Those

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<v Speaker 4>are all recipes for what I would call a generational

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<v Speaker 4>economic driver for this country.

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<v Speaker 3>Joe, could you say that Canada has been blessed in

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<v Speaker 3>growing grains? Do you get it?

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<v Speaker 1>Okay?

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<v Speaker 2>I get it.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm I'm sure you've heard of.

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<v Speaker 2>All over over theres. I'm glad you brought that up. Actually,

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<v Speaker 2>though about the calorie as the original unit of energy,

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<v Speaker 2>that was important. You know, we've never had him on

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<v Speaker 2>the podcast, but vaklov Smil talks about that when he

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<v Speaker 2>talks about the history of energy and just these calculations

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<v Speaker 2>in the beginning, Okay, how many calories did a firmer

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<v Speaker 2>have to expend to produce this much land, and then

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<v Speaker 2>so forth, and how many calories were produced and so forth.

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<v Speaker 2>So just even thinking about it from that equation is

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<v Speaker 2>a very like sort of important, I think, Lens, why

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<v Speaker 2>don't you just describe the actual role of AGT foods.

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<v Speaker 2>Where do you sit in the supply chain and dist

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<v Speaker 2>Do you have farms yourself, do you work with farmers?

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<v Speaker 2>Do you contract with them? Like talk about where you

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<v Speaker 2>sit and how a lentil grown in Saskatchewan gets to

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<v Speaker 2>a consumer in say, India.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, the entire business plan was set up modern state

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<v Speaker 4>of the art processing infrastructure in the areas where we

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<v Speaker 4>grow these crops. So we contract directly with farmers. We

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<v Speaker 4>are the ones who transform their products into saleable you know,

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<v Speaker 4>human consumption products. So we own factories in Canada, the US, Australia,

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<v Speaker 4>South Africa, Turkey. So I started with one small, little

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<v Speaker 4>factory in Regina. We now have forty six manufacturing and

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<v Speaker 4>processing facilities and five continents around the world. I started

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<v Speaker 4>in the basement of my house. There's now thirty six

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<v Speaker 4>hundred employees. Wow. So you know what we do is

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<v Speaker 4>we take those crops, we clean them, we size them,

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<v Speaker 4>we peel them, we split them, we can them, we

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<v Speaker 4>package them, we put them out and we fraction them

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<v Speaker 4>into protein starts, f flowers. I mean, we put them

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<v Speaker 4>into food products. We do the full range of value adding.

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<v Speaker 4>And in the scale of our business now you know,

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<v Speaker 4>let's say around three point two billion in revenue this year,

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<v Speaker 4>we become a major global supply chain in this particular

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<v Speaker 4>segment of the business. In fact, if I look at

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<v Speaker 4>you know, containerized agricultural Shipments AGT would be among the

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<v Speaker 4>two or three largest containerized shippers of agriproducts in the

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<v Speaker 4>entire world. So you know, we shipped to one hundred

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<v Speaker 4>and ten countries actively.

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<v Speaker 2>And how does it get there? Like what is the okay,

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<v Speaker 2>So from a farmer in Saskatchewan, how many links are

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<v Speaker 2>there on that chain.

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<v Speaker 4>So we'll take it into let's say a farmer in Eston, Saskatchewan,

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<v Speaker 4>We'll deliver to our location at Aston, Okay. We will

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<v Speaker 4>then take that grain. We'll put it into a railcar

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<v Speaker 4>that we own. So those owned railcars then go into

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<v Speaker 4>the CN rail system. They get transported to a port facility.

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<v Speaker 4>Let's say I just did one as an example, and

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<v Speaker 4>on May the sixth, we're going to ship a vessel

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<v Speaker 4>of lentils to Turkey. So those Eston farmers would have

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<v Speaker 4>filled the railcars. We're shipping it to thunder Bay. At

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<v Speaker 4>thunder Bay, we have an ocean terminal where we'll load

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<v Speaker 4>a vessel. That vessel will transport twenty one thousand tons

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<v Speaker 4>of lentils that will go to Turkey. They will be

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<v Speaker 4>offloaded in the port of Meerson, Turkey, which is in

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<v Speaker 4>the southern Mediterranean. We have factory seven kilometers for the port.

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<v Speaker 4>Will peel them, split them, polish them, package them, and

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<v Speaker 4>then they'll be shipped to Iraq. They'll be shipped into

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<v Speaker 4>the Gaza refugees. They'll be shipped into the Middle East

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<v Speaker 4>region and they'll be consumed locally in the entire region

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<v Speaker 4>on the food side. So you know where we play

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<v Speaker 4>is in the entire supply chain, taking it right from

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<v Speaker 4>the farmer right through to the distribution directly onto the

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<v Speaker 4>consumer shelf. And you know, that was the strategy that

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<v Speaker 4>we wanted to to build out. It gives us resiliency.

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<v Speaker 3>I was going to ask, is it normal for agricultural

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<v Speaker 3>company is to actually own their own transportation capital. You

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<v Speaker 3>mentioned train cars just then. That seems extremely vertically integrated.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, yeah, actually I was definitely not, you know, the

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<v Speaker 4>normal thought and that In twenty fifteen, I decided to

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<v Speaker 4>build a transportation business, and so we bought six hundred

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<v Speaker 4>and fifty kilometers of short line railway. We bought the

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<v Speaker 4>Saskatchewan government grain car fleet. So when the Canadian Wheatboard

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<v Speaker 4>was dismantled, the Saskatchewan flagged grain cars, I bought them.

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<v Speaker 4>We bought thirteen locomotives. We set up our own transportation infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 4>linked it in a long term agreement to Cnrail, and

0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.400
<v Speaker 4>you know we're able to access it through ocean port infrastructure.

0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:48.840
<v Speaker 4>We actually took that business in twenty twenty five in January,

0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:52.440
<v Speaker 4>and we sold it for one hundred and ninety two

0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:55.559
<v Speaker 4>million dollars to an infrastructure fund in the United States,

0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:59.160
<v Speaker 4>and then we contracted them back to provide US service

0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.120
<v Speaker 4>for the next twenty year. So you are correct. We

0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:06.080
<v Speaker 4>actually built out a transportation infrastructure that didn't exist to

0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:09.240
<v Speaker 4>handle these kinds of commodities, and then we found a

0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:11.640
<v Speaker 4>partner to run it for the long term and it

0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:14.120
<v Speaker 4>gives us a competitive advantage to get our products to market.

0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:31.760
<v Speaker 2>I have a question. You know, you mentioned that the

0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:35.960
<v Speaker 2>only scarce resources are land and water. Can you talk

0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:39.480
<v Speaker 2>about yields on an acre or yields on a given

0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:44.040
<v Speaker 2>farm today versus when you got started in the industry,

0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:46.880
<v Speaker 2>and how what you've seen in terms of technology and

0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:49.479
<v Speaker 2>productivity growth at the land level.

0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:57.000
<v Speaker 4>Massive massive transformation, So precision agriculture, digital infrastructure has transformed

0:13:57.040 --> 0:13:59.640
<v Speaker 4>the productivity of Canada. And you know, when I was

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.040
<v Speaker 4>a kid growing up in that little village of Davidson,

0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:04.920
<v Speaker 4>twelve hundred people in the middle of Saskatchewan. You know,

0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:08.120
<v Speaker 4>as an immigrant Turkish family, the farmer would go out

0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:10.720
<v Speaker 4>and kick the dirt. He would put his hand into

0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:12.959
<v Speaker 4>the soil. He'd have his wife with him and say

0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 4>what do you think should we go? And she'd say, yeah,

0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:17.959
<v Speaker 4>let's go, and they would go and start seeding. Today,

0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:22.840
<v Speaker 4>we're soil sampling. We're analyzing the soil and the nitrogen

0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 4>in the soil. There's precision weather stations that are measuring moisture.

0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 4>We have zero minimum tillage where GPS systems are giving

0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:37.400
<v Speaker 4>the farmer the exact placement of seed fertilizer in a

0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:41.760
<v Speaker 4>single pass without breaking the soil using air channels. We're

0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:46.400
<v Speaker 4>putting the seed in a precision basis to maximize the yield,

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:49.720
<v Speaker 4>to lower the amount of nitrogen fertilizer being used in

0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:53.600
<v Speaker 4>all crop rotations, which ultimately saves inputs and lowers the

0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:57.400
<v Speaker 4>carbon intensity of our agriculture. Our yield curves have been

0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:00.720
<v Speaker 4>massively increasing, you know, to where if I look at

0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:04.560
<v Speaker 4>the next decade ahead in Saskatchewan, I'm forecasting seven to

0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:08.600
<v Speaker 4>ten million additional tons of grain from the same amount

0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:11.040
<v Speaker 4>of acres that are being seated. You know, that is

0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:12.160
<v Speaker 4>a massive.

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:14.560
<v Speaker 2>Wait, what's the baseline, what's the base? Seven to ten million?

0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:15.560
<v Speaker 2>On top of how many.

0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:18.440
<v Speaker 4>We're growing about thirty million tons, so we're gonna have

0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:20.600
<v Speaker 4>another seven to ten million. I mean, you're talking about

0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:24.520
<v Speaker 4>twenty to thirty percent yield increase over the next seven years.

0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 4>I mean, when I chaired the National Strategy Table for

0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.440
<v Speaker 4>Agriculture and Food for the Government of Canada. We set

0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:34.200
<v Speaker 4>a target in twenty nineteen that the agriculture sector in

0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:37.840
<v Speaker 4>our country would grow from forty five billion to eighty

0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:41.400
<v Speaker 4>five billion of exports in a five year cycle, and

0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:44.240
<v Speaker 4>domestic agricultural output would grow from one hundred and twenty

0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:47.000
<v Speaker 4>billion to one hundred and forty five billion. And we

0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.560
<v Speaker 4>reached that target in three years. I mean, what sector

0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:55.960
<v Speaker 4>of our economy can deliver sixty five billion of growth

0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 4>in three years. Agriculture did that in this country. So

0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 4>the tangibility of that opportunity of global food insecurity, the

0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:08.560
<v Speaker 4>productivity of precision agriculture in our country, and you know,

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.480
<v Speaker 4>the ability to get our products to market. You know,

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:14.520
<v Speaker 4>this is the recipe that I believe is going to

0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:19.000
<v Speaker 4>be a big part of the government economic agenda going forward. So,

0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:21.000
<v Speaker 4>you know, we talk a lot about natural resources that

0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:24.600
<v Speaker 4>are in conflict in certain mindsets, whether it be oil

0:16:24.600 --> 0:16:28.360
<v Speaker 4>and gas or mining. There's very little controversy on the

0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:32.760
<v Speaker 4>growth of the natural resource sector in agriculture. So from

0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:36.600
<v Speaker 4>that perspective, I see that as being a key opportunity

0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:38.920
<v Speaker 4>for this country, you know, and one that I'm very

0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:41.400
<v Speaker 4>excited about for the next twenty years of my career.

0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 3>So I take the point about yields having been improved.

0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.480
<v Speaker 3>But at the same time, there's a lot of talk

0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:52.200
<v Speaker 3>about soil exhaustion, right And one of the reasons this

0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 3>is on my mind is because I was gardening over

0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:58.720
<v Speaker 3>the weekend on an old farm property and the soil

0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:02.360
<v Speaker 3>is just terrible. It's basically dust like, there's no tilth

0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:06.120
<v Speaker 3>I think I found one earthworm in like six hours

0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:10.320
<v Speaker 3>of digging. How big a problem is soil depletion? And

0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:13.640
<v Speaker 3>you touched on this earlier, But what role can lentils

0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:15.040
<v Speaker 3>and beans play in that?

0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:18.240
<v Speaker 4>Well? And then that's actually the key. The key is

0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:22.639
<v Speaker 4>is that farmers in Western Canada are now practicing a

0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:26.840
<v Speaker 4>sustainable three crop rotation. So one year they'll grow that

0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:28.800
<v Speaker 4>wheat like when I was a kid, the next year

0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.440
<v Speaker 4>they'll grow an oil seed like canola, and then the

0:17:31.520 --> 0:17:34.520
<v Speaker 4>year after that they'll plant the lagoome that will fix

0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:39.440
<v Speaker 4>the nitrogen. By using zero minimum tillage, we're conserving soil moisture,

0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:43.760
<v Speaker 4>we're managing pests and the health of the soil, and

0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:49.240
<v Speaker 4>we're actually using farming practices where without tilling we're returning

0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:52.560
<v Speaker 4>biomass into the soil. So from that perspective, when I

0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:55.840
<v Speaker 4>look at the sustainability of soil health, the farmers in

0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:58.119
<v Speaker 4>Western Canada have gotten And you know, that is something

0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:02.680
<v Speaker 4>that bothers me is people talk about how regenerative agriculture

0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:05.640
<v Speaker 4>is such a key part. Well, in Western Canada, we've

0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:09.080
<v Speaker 4>been doing regenerative agriculture for the last forty years. This

0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:14.239
<v Speaker 4>is something that is actually foundational to the success of

0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:17.359
<v Speaker 4>the Western Canadian and I mean the Canadian agriculture sector

0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:19.359
<v Speaker 4>in general. So you know, I think that when I

0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:23.240
<v Speaker 4>look at soil depletion and soil health, it's about farmers

0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:27.159
<v Speaker 4>pushing the wrong rotations, growing crops on top of crops,

0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:30.400
<v Speaker 4>the same crops. You know, ultimately, if you don't rotate,

0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:34.720
<v Speaker 4>you have pests that multiply, you have diseases that ultimately

0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:39.399
<v Speaker 4>get resistant to any type of management. So, you know,

0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:43.280
<v Speaker 4>this kind of diversity of our agricultural system is one

0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:45.600
<v Speaker 4>that not only has to be celebrated, but it's actually

0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:49.000
<v Speaker 4>yielding that yield gain. So you know, not only is

0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:51.879
<v Speaker 4>our soil health at a peak, but it's also something

0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:53.679
<v Speaker 4>I want to be clear, we can't take for granted.

0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.879
<v Speaker 4>We have to be continuously innovating to make sure that

0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.879
<v Speaker 4>we maintain that. I mean, I say, the canola fields

0:18:59.880 --> 0:19:02.560
<v Speaker 4>of Saskatchewan are the same as the oil fields of

0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:06.840
<v Speaker 4>Saudi Arabia, only every year it replenishes naturally. So we

0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:09.280
<v Speaker 4>can take crops, we can produce renewable fuels, we can

0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:13.000
<v Speaker 4>take crops, extract protein and feed the world. But we

0:19:13.119 --> 0:19:16.680
<v Speaker 4>have to make sure foundationally that soil health is at

0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:19.520
<v Speaker 4>the forefront. And I think it is in our farmer's

0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:21.679
<v Speaker 4>minds and then the practices that they do.

0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:26.320
<v Speaker 2>So you know, you've described this global supply chain that

0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:28.879
<v Speaker 2>exists in the fact that you can get the lentil

0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:31.520
<v Speaker 2>product from a farmer in Saskatchewan all the way to

0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:37.439
<v Speaker 2>a consumer in India or Iraq or Turkey, et cetera. Obviously,

0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:42.240
<v Speaker 2>we're having this conversation, at least on the US side,

0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:46.800
<v Speaker 2>with this turn against globalized supply chains, globalized trade and

0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:49.880
<v Speaker 2>so forth. Talk to us a little bit about how

0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:53.439
<v Speaker 2>you see the state of US Canada agg trade, or

0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:56.240
<v Speaker 2>give us the sort of the short history of the

0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:59.199
<v Speaker 2>various turns of the dial there and how some of

0:19:59.200 --> 0:20:01.040
<v Speaker 2>these conversations are affecting your business.

0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:03.200
<v Speaker 4>Look, I think We've got to recognize one thing. We

0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:05.480
<v Speaker 4>have a president in the United States today who's just

0:20:05.600 --> 0:20:09.239
<v Speaker 4>very loud and using tariffs as the mechanism to not

0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:14.520
<v Speaker 4>only provoke conversation but to drive policy protectionists. Agricultural policies

0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:17.080
<v Speaker 4>in the United States are not something new, you know.

0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:20.679
<v Speaker 4>I always have to remind people that country of origin

0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:24.800
<v Speaker 4>labeling was a Barack Obama policy that you know, continued

0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:28.000
<v Speaker 4>through the Trump administration and into the Biden administration. So

0:20:28.080 --> 0:20:31.560
<v Speaker 4>you know, every government in the world, agriculture is the

0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:35.360
<v Speaker 4>most political business in the entire globe because farmers have

0:20:35.440 --> 0:20:40.320
<v Speaker 4>to be protected by governments that are elected. Yet, food

0:20:40.359 --> 0:20:46.400
<v Speaker 4>inflation and food security are paramount considerations in the health, wealth,

0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:50.800
<v Speaker 4>and security of every nation in the world. So when

0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:53.040
<v Speaker 4>we look at it, let's not forget one thing. When

0:20:53.040 --> 0:20:56.600
<v Speaker 4>a baby is hungry, they cry, When an eighteen year

0:20:56.600 --> 0:21:00.439
<v Speaker 4>old man is unemployed in hungry, they protest. So you know,

0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:03.520
<v Speaker 4>ultimately a big part of civil obedience in the world

0:21:04.080 --> 0:21:07.760
<v Speaker 4>is available food, and that growing food insecurity is one

0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:09.520
<v Speaker 4>that I think, you know, is going to be paramount.

0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:12.280
<v Speaker 4>So when I look at even US policy, look, food

0:21:12.320 --> 0:21:18.000
<v Speaker 4>security is a foundational part of US intelligence and foreign policy.

0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:21.280
<v Speaker 4>And so from that perspective, you know, I believe that

0:21:21.359 --> 0:21:26.720
<v Speaker 4>agricultural trade will have to be preserved as a part

0:21:26.840 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 4>of the overall policy framework. So you know, we're going

0:21:30.640 --> 0:21:33.200
<v Speaker 4>to see tariffs, We're going to see protectionist measures being

0:21:33.240 --> 0:21:36.760
<v Speaker 4>more prevalent in the world. But I do think that

0:21:36.920 --> 0:21:41.879
<v Speaker 4>ultimately food are going to be concessionary items. Governments are

0:21:41.880 --> 0:21:45.560
<v Speaker 4>going to allow them to flow. Governments will use tariffs

0:21:45.600 --> 0:21:47.800
<v Speaker 4>to protect their farmers when they need to at times

0:21:47.800 --> 0:21:51.639
<v Speaker 4>when they harvest their crops, but they need food available.

0:21:52.119 --> 0:21:54.720
<v Speaker 4>And you know the COVID post supply chain disruptions and

0:21:54.760 --> 0:21:58.040
<v Speaker 4>food lines and food inflation, and you know, food being

0:21:58.040 --> 0:22:00.000
<v Speaker 4>a big driver of that inflationary environment in the world

0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 4>world is something that everybody recognizes can't continue. On the

0:22:03.680 --> 0:22:07.480
<v Speaker 4>US policy side, domestic agriculture in the US and Canada

0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:09.840
<v Speaker 4>are very integrated. So if I look at you know,

0:22:09.880 --> 0:22:13.000
<v Speaker 4>the pasta on the shelves of the US consumer come

0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 4>largely from Durham wheat in Western Canada. The overall integration

0:22:17.400 --> 0:22:21.800
<v Speaker 4>of our livestock sectors, cropping sectors are there, and ultimately

0:22:22.520 --> 0:22:26.280
<v Speaker 4>I think we're going to see further integration. We're going

0:22:26.359 --> 0:22:31.000
<v Speaker 4>to see you know, getting over this current protectionist conflict.

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:38.120
<v Speaker 4>Leyden dialogue to recognizing that the Americas integration and more

0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:41.639
<v Speaker 4>reliance on each other as nations in the Americas is

0:22:41.680 --> 0:22:44.359
<v Speaker 4>going to be part of economic prosperity. And you know,

0:22:44.359 --> 0:22:45.439
<v Speaker 4>I think that, you know, if I look at the

0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:50.119
<v Speaker 4>Trump administration, you know, kind of policy on Canada. We

0:22:50.200 --> 0:22:53.640
<v Speaker 4>have to just remind everybody very clearly to have comm heads.

0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:57.280
<v Speaker 4>Thirty one US states have Canada as their largest trading partner.

0:22:58.040 --> 0:23:01.199
<v Speaker 4>The ultimate availability of food in the United States is

0:23:01.800 --> 0:23:04.159
<v Speaker 4>you know, not completely reliant, but we certainly have a

0:23:04.160 --> 0:23:07.760
<v Speaker 4>big influence on food prices. And so you know, I'm

0:23:07.800 --> 0:23:12.120
<v Speaker 4>a very strong optimist that agriculture will continue its integration

0:23:12.920 --> 0:23:16.240
<v Speaker 4>and that you know, ultimately food and I believe energy

0:23:16.280 --> 0:23:19.200
<v Speaker 4>are going to be the two sectors. And the third

0:23:19.200 --> 0:23:22.320
<v Speaker 4>one from a Saskatchewan perspective is potash. I mean, eighty

0:23:22.359 --> 0:23:24.320
<v Speaker 4>percent of the potash in the United States, which is

0:23:24.320 --> 0:23:28.359
<v Speaker 4>a necessary nitrogen element you know, comes from Canadian minds.

0:23:29.000 --> 0:23:31.000
<v Speaker 4>So you know, from that perspective, you know, there's certain

0:23:31.040 --> 0:23:33.919
<v Speaker 4>sectors that I think are mutually beneficial that are going

0:23:33.960 --> 0:23:37.440
<v Speaker 4>to enjoy heightened access in some sort of resolution.

0:23:37.840 --> 0:23:42.080
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so agriculture might be special in one way or another.

0:23:42.119 --> 0:23:45.480
<v Speaker 3>But just to drill down a little bit into specifics,

0:23:46.320 --> 0:23:51.399
<v Speaker 3>if the US slaps tariffs on Canadian lentils, what is

0:23:51.440 --> 0:23:54.840
<v Speaker 3>the first thing that happens in your supply chain? And

0:23:54.960 --> 0:23:57.879
<v Speaker 3>I guess maybe we could go back in history and

0:23:57.920 --> 0:24:01.920
<v Speaker 3>talk a little bit about thee from India on lontals

0:24:01.920 --> 0:24:04.320
<v Speaker 3>because you have experience with this, right like you have

0:24:04.480 --> 0:24:07.880
<v Speaker 3>gone through this process, So what exactly happens.

0:24:08.400 --> 0:24:12.439
<v Speaker 4>Agriculture is no different than any other sector, except that

0:24:12.480 --> 0:24:16.560
<v Speaker 4>our markets are already a lot more diversified than you know,

0:24:16.640 --> 0:24:18.280
<v Speaker 4>other sectors. So you know, when I look at the

0:24:18.320 --> 0:24:22.720
<v Speaker 4>crop sectors in particular wheat, canola, and pulses, we do

0:24:22.800 --> 0:24:25.760
<v Speaker 4>have shipments into the US on a regular basis, but

0:24:25.840 --> 0:24:30.439
<v Speaker 4>it's still making up a relatively small percentage when you

0:24:30.520 --> 0:24:33.520
<v Speaker 4>look at it compared to other sectors' reliance on the US.

0:24:34.240 --> 0:24:36.080
<v Speaker 4>So you know, one of the key things to having

0:24:36.160 --> 0:24:40.480
<v Speaker 4>strength in a tariff or a trade protectionist environment is

0:24:40.480 --> 0:24:43.640
<v Speaker 4>to have alternative markets. Now, for US, I worry more

0:24:43.680 --> 0:24:47.719
<v Speaker 4>about the reciprocal tariffs in places like China, India and

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:51.720
<v Speaker 4>other large markets than I do only the US market.

0:24:51.760 --> 0:24:54.240
<v Speaker 4>I mean, it's one of the considerations. We want that resolution,

0:24:54.920 --> 0:24:57.040
<v Speaker 4>but you know what we do is we pivot. You know,

0:24:57.080 --> 0:25:01.040
<v Speaker 4>when we were facing the tariffs on the March deadline

0:25:01.040 --> 0:25:03.720
<v Speaker 4>than the April deadline, you know, as a company, we

0:25:03.840 --> 0:25:07.200
<v Speaker 4>already prepared for this. We have a North Dakota manufacturing

0:25:07.200 --> 0:25:09.760
<v Speaker 4>facility that was going to manufacture more for the US market.

0:25:10.480 --> 0:25:12.840
<v Speaker 4>We were going to switch our supply chain to reliance

0:25:12.880 --> 0:25:15.119
<v Speaker 4>on North Dakota and Montana, and we were going to

0:25:15.119 --> 0:25:16.840
<v Speaker 4>take the Western Canadian product and we were going to

0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:19.639
<v Speaker 4>go out to the Middle East into other markets in Asia.

0:25:19.840 --> 0:25:21.960
<v Speaker 4>We're going to put a height and focused on South America,

0:25:22.320 --> 0:25:24.520
<v Speaker 4>and we're going to ship into Europe. So you know,

0:25:24.560 --> 0:25:26.080
<v Speaker 4>that's where you have to be. And I think that

0:25:26.160 --> 0:25:30.119
<v Speaker 4>this is ultimately you know, my dialogues with Prime Minister

0:25:30.200 --> 0:25:32.879
<v Speaker 4>Carney prior to the election, of my dialogues after with

0:25:32.960 --> 0:25:36.760
<v Speaker 4>Prime Minister Carney are going to be trade diversification agenda

0:25:36.920 --> 0:25:40.200
<v Speaker 4>is not something that we can blink at, no matter

0:25:40.240 --> 0:25:43.480
<v Speaker 4>how quickly or how comprehensively. The resolution is with the US,

0:25:44.240 --> 0:25:49.000
<v Speaker 4>we need to finally execute trade diversification in this country.

0:25:49.480 --> 0:25:53.400
<v Speaker 4>We need to recognize that our industries have become overly reliant.

0:25:53.960 --> 0:25:56.520
<v Speaker 4>We've been complacent. You know what, this has to be

0:25:56.520 --> 0:25:59.480
<v Speaker 4>a wake up call to my colleagues in every industry

0:25:59.520 --> 0:26:03.560
<v Speaker 4>in this country. Wake up over reliance. Eggs in one

0:26:03.600 --> 0:26:07.560
<v Speaker 4>basket is a dangerous remedy for long term sustainable health

0:26:07.600 --> 0:26:10.480
<v Speaker 4>of your business. And you know, ultimately that's where we

0:26:10.520 --> 0:26:13.160
<v Speaker 4>have to go. We need bilateral trade agreements. We need

0:26:13.200 --> 0:26:17.560
<v Speaker 4>to resolve India and China as powerhouses that balance our

0:26:17.600 --> 0:26:20.280
<v Speaker 4>reliance on the US, and we need to monetize the

0:26:20.280 --> 0:26:24.359
<v Speaker 4>European Union trade agreement that we've already signed. We need

0:26:24.400 --> 0:26:27.280
<v Speaker 4>to ensure that we get relevance with these countries. And

0:26:27.359 --> 0:26:32.480
<v Speaker 4>agri food, energy and potash and uranium are four things

0:26:32.800 --> 0:26:36.399
<v Speaker 4>that get us relevance with these nations. We need to

0:26:36.520 --> 0:26:41.359
<v Speaker 4>parlay that into free trade agreements, bilateral exchange agreements, and

0:26:41.400 --> 0:26:55.680
<v Speaker 4>we need to get ourselves market access.

0:26:58.640 --> 0:27:03.439
<v Speaker 2>Obviously, shiating free trade or bilateral trade agreements with different

0:27:03.440 --> 0:27:07.320
<v Speaker 2>counterparts is an important element. There's also a physical element, right,

0:27:07.480 --> 0:27:12.000
<v Speaker 2>the quality of rail infrastructure, the quality of export terminal

0:27:12.119 --> 0:27:14.959
<v Speaker 2>and I guess on the other side, import terminal infrastructure.

0:27:15.520 --> 0:27:18.159
<v Speaker 2>In the context of energy, we hear a lot about

0:27:18.160 --> 0:27:20.840
<v Speaker 2>this and are we building export terminals fast enough? And

0:27:20.960 --> 0:27:23.600
<v Speaker 2>is it cheap enough, is it economical? Talk to us

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:26.240
<v Speaker 2>about the sort of like the physical things that need

0:27:26.320 --> 0:27:30.760
<v Speaker 2>to get built, as you put it, monetize these relationships,

0:27:30.960 --> 0:27:32.879
<v Speaker 2>and like I don't know in the US, I know

0:27:32.920 --> 0:27:36.040
<v Speaker 2>that building everything is crazy expensive these days. What does

0:27:36.080 --> 0:27:38.800
<v Speaker 2>the state of this physical trade infrastructure look like in

0:27:38.840 --> 0:27:39.680
<v Speaker 2>Canada right now?

0:27:39.880 --> 0:27:41.919
<v Speaker 4>We have we have to acknowledge that we've got, you know,

0:27:42.000 --> 0:27:46.639
<v Speaker 4>major challenges. I mean, we've got large geographic land base,

0:27:46.800 --> 0:27:51.600
<v Speaker 4>we have mountains between production regions in Western Canada and

0:27:51.760 --> 0:27:56.160
<v Speaker 4>the coast in Vancouver, and we have minus forty degree temperatures.

0:27:56.560 --> 0:27:58.399
<v Speaker 4>So you know, these are all constraints that we have

0:27:58.480 --> 0:28:00.639
<v Speaker 4>to live with. And you know, one of the things

0:28:00.840 --> 0:28:02.679
<v Speaker 4>you know, I've become a little bit known for in

0:28:02.680 --> 0:28:06.280
<v Speaker 4>this country is my adage that if I was Prime

0:28:06.280 --> 0:28:09.200
<v Speaker 4>Minister for one day, I would invest one hundred billion

0:28:09.280 --> 0:28:13.720
<v Speaker 4>dollars in trade infrastructure because that ultimately would pay dividends

0:28:13.760 --> 0:28:16.359
<v Speaker 4>for generations to come. So, you know, we need to

0:28:16.359 --> 0:28:19.320
<v Speaker 4>revive the gateway strategies. If I look back at the

0:28:19.960 --> 0:28:23.560
<v Speaker 4>two thousand and five twenty eleven period, the Asia Pacific

0:28:23.560 --> 0:28:26.879
<v Speaker 4>Gateway initiative is one of the most successful in recent times.

0:28:26.920 --> 0:28:30.560
<v Speaker 4>In Canada where you had you know, municipal governments, provincial governments,

0:28:30.600 --> 0:28:34.760
<v Speaker 4>private sector players, Class one railways, port authorities, poort infrastructure,

0:28:35.119 --> 0:28:38.160
<v Speaker 4>private sector players working on first mile and last mile,

0:28:38.480 --> 0:28:41.800
<v Speaker 4>and we made major progress on developing the Asia Pacific Gateway.

0:28:42.440 --> 0:28:45.080
<v Speaker 4>We need to acknowledge that we need to build a

0:28:45.120 --> 0:28:48.360
<v Speaker 4>trade infrastructure for thirty and forty and fifty years from now,

0:28:48.760 --> 0:28:51.400
<v Speaker 4>not just for thirty and forty and fifty weeks from now.

0:28:52.040 --> 0:28:54.800
<v Speaker 4>We need to relocate rail lines out of the center

0:28:54.840 --> 0:28:59.120
<v Speaker 4>of communities across our nation, to plan for development of

0:28:59.120 --> 0:29:03.360
<v Speaker 4>industrial and redissidential developments and allow for the trade infrastructure

0:29:03.360 --> 0:29:06.360
<v Speaker 4>to have room to scale. You know, as we continue

0:29:06.400 --> 0:29:09.280
<v Speaker 4>to build out. I mean Saskatchewan is a perfect example.

0:29:09.320 --> 0:29:12.240
<v Speaker 4>As I said, seven to ten million more tons of agri.

0:29:13.000 --> 0:29:16.680
<v Speaker 4>With the BHP investment of twelve billion dollars in potash

0:29:17.240 --> 0:29:20.960
<v Speaker 4>k Pluss mine expansion and the expansions that are on

0:29:21.200 --> 0:29:26.040
<v Speaker 4>for nutrient and mosaic, you have roughly about twelve million

0:29:26.040 --> 0:29:29.160
<v Speaker 4>additional tons of potash that will come online over the

0:29:29.160 --> 0:29:31.360
<v Speaker 4>next decade. And you know, if we get oil and

0:29:31.440 --> 0:29:34.959
<v Speaker 4>pipelines and we get the dry bull commodities on rail,

0:29:35.320 --> 0:29:37.760
<v Speaker 4>we have some capacity, but We've got to think about

0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:39.760
<v Speaker 4>what we're going to be thirty years from now. If

0:29:39.800 --> 0:29:42.320
<v Speaker 4>we continue on these yield trends, we're going to reach

0:29:42.320 --> 0:29:45.160
<v Speaker 4>one hundred million tons of production one day. Today our

0:29:45.200 --> 0:29:47.880
<v Speaker 4>average is fifty five million tons in this country in Agrie.

0:29:48.640 --> 0:29:53.320
<v Speaker 4>So from that perspective, the economic benefit is there as well,

0:29:53.800 --> 0:29:57.480
<v Speaker 4>which ultimately, you know, funds the Canadian way of life,

0:29:57.520 --> 0:30:01.680
<v Speaker 4>social programs like healthcare, education, you know, the things that

0:30:01.720 --> 0:30:05.040
<v Speaker 4>we as Canadians value, you know, in terms of being

0:30:05.080 --> 0:30:08.360
<v Speaker 4>Canadian versus being living in another nation around the world.

0:30:09.120 --> 0:30:12.360
<v Speaker 4>So that's the opportunity. And trade infrastructure. I have a

0:30:12.440 --> 0:30:16.840
<v Speaker 4>level of optimism that, you know, our newly elected Liberal

0:30:16.880 --> 0:30:18.680
<v Speaker 4>government and frankly, it would have been the same if

0:30:18.680 --> 0:30:23.480
<v Speaker 4>the Conservatives were elected. Trade infrastructure is recognized as an

0:30:23.600 --> 0:30:27.640
<v Speaker 4>essential element of that trade diversification strategy. We focused a

0:30:27.640 --> 0:30:30.920
<v Speaker 4>lot on north south infrastructure and not that we should

0:30:30.920 --> 0:30:33.720
<v Speaker 4>diminish that because I think people got to recognize we're

0:30:33.720 --> 0:30:38.120
<v Speaker 4>not saying trade less with the US. We're saying trade

0:30:38.200 --> 0:30:42.520
<v Speaker 4>our growth with new countries. Over time, we will diversify.

0:30:43.200 --> 0:30:47.480
<v Speaker 4>Trade diversification couldnot happen in one day, one year, or

0:30:47.600 --> 0:30:50.600
<v Speaker 4>even in ten years, you know, we have created an

0:30:50.600 --> 0:30:55.280
<v Speaker 4>economy that's reliant over decades. We need to diversify over

0:30:55.360 --> 0:30:56.280
<v Speaker 4>the next decades.

0:30:57.080 --> 0:31:00.520
<v Speaker 3>So I know it's early days, but just on this point,

0:31:00.760 --> 0:31:05.000
<v Speaker 3>farming is clearly a very capital intensive business and you

0:31:05.120 --> 0:31:08.840
<v Speaker 3>want to be investing in trade, infrastructure and things like that.

0:31:09.160 --> 0:31:14.960
<v Speaker 3>Have you noticed any changes in capital availability post Trump's win?

0:31:15.240 --> 0:31:18.680
<v Speaker 3>So are people maybe they feel more cautious because there's

0:31:18.720 --> 0:31:22.720
<v Speaker 3>all this policy uncertainty, or maybe people are directing capital

0:31:22.840 --> 0:31:26.200
<v Speaker 3>away from the US and towards Canada. Now, I don't know,

0:31:26.240 --> 0:31:28.160
<v Speaker 3>have you noticed any shifts in the pattern?

0:31:29.120 --> 0:31:32.000
<v Speaker 4>I think that you know, certainly short term disruptions like this,

0:31:32.360 --> 0:31:35.720
<v Speaker 4>you know, cause capital to be nervous. You know, there's

0:31:35.720 --> 0:31:37.520
<v Speaker 4>no doubt about it. But you know, if I look

0:31:37.520 --> 0:31:40.480
<v Speaker 4>at you know my partners in agt are you Fairfax

0:31:40.520 --> 0:31:43.680
<v Speaker 4>Financial is a sixty percent owner of my company. So

0:31:43.760 --> 0:31:47.320
<v Speaker 4>prem Watts believed in the long term growth of an

0:31:47.320 --> 0:31:51.400
<v Speaker 4>agri food champion from Canada. Along with Omer's pension program.

0:31:51.720 --> 0:31:53.880
<v Speaker 4>You know, those two companies own seventy two percent of

0:31:53.880 --> 0:31:57.080
<v Speaker 4>my shares along with myself. And you know that kind

0:31:57.080 --> 0:32:02.320
<v Speaker 4>of capital source is recognizing canada role to build billions

0:32:02.320 --> 0:32:05.840
<v Speaker 4>of growth. You know, in this sector. In the trade

0:32:05.880 --> 0:32:09.400
<v Speaker 4>infrastructure side, I think that there's a recognition that, you know,

0:32:09.480 --> 0:32:12.560
<v Speaker 4>we're not building this only you know, to talk about, oh,

0:32:12.560 --> 0:32:15.800
<v Speaker 4>we got great infrastructure. There's a large economic benefit that

0:32:15.800 --> 0:32:18.520
<v Speaker 4>will come along with it that can allow the tax

0:32:18.600 --> 0:32:21.080
<v Speaker 4>base to be directed into the things that need to

0:32:21.080 --> 0:32:23.160
<v Speaker 4>be done in this country. So, you know, when I

0:32:23.160 --> 0:32:27.520
<v Speaker 4>look at that recognition again not looking with rose colored glasses,

0:32:27.600 --> 0:32:30.960
<v Speaker 4>I believe capital will flow. We need to do a

0:32:30.960 --> 0:32:34.800
<v Speaker 4>better job of figuring out how to monetize trade infrastructure

0:32:35.440 --> 0:32:39.080
<v Speaker 4>into projects that could be funded in more traditional project finance.

0:32:39.760 --> 0:32:42.040
<v Speaker 4>So you know, it's easy on a toll road, you

0:32:42.120 --> 0:32:45.680
<v Speaker 4>have an income stream and someone will finance that. How

0:32:45.720 --> 0:32:49.040
<v Speaker 4>do you finance the growth of Class one railway infrastructure

0:32:49.480 --> 0:32:52.400
<v Speaker 4>or bridges that go to the ports, or you know,

0:32:52.480 --> 0:32:56.320
<v Speaker 4>port infrastructure. You need to come up with economic models

0:32:56.640 --> 0:32:59.600
<v Speaker 4>that create cash. And I remind people that extra revenue

0:32:59.640 --> 0:33:02.720
<v Speaker 4>is ca U and cost savings in the supply chain

0:33:02.720 --> 0:33:06.000
<v Speaker 4>are also cash. So from that perspective, you know, I

0:33:06.040 --> 0:33:11.040
<v Speaker 4>think that we're going to see a capital attraction because

0:33:11.080 --> 0:33:15.160
<v Speaker 4>Canada has such a fundamental competitive advantage in the natural

0:33:15.200 --> 0:33:18.960
<v Speaker 4>resources sector that capital will come here get our products

0:33:19.040 --> 0:33:20.840
<v Speaker 4>to the places that demand them.

0:33:21.320 --> 0:33:26.040
<v Speaker 3>So speaking of cost savings in the supply chain, one

0:33:26.040 --> 0:33:30.080
<v Speaker 3>of the things we've seen since the tariff's announcement is

0:33:30.120 --> 0:33:33.520
<v Speaker 3>a slow down in global shipping, or a slow down

0:33:33.560 --> 0:33:37.200
<v Speaker 3>at least in shipping between China and the US. Does

0:33:37.240 --> 0:33:40.360
<v Speaker 3>that affect you at all, because I imagine, on the one hand,

0:33:40.400 --> 0:33:43.360
<v Speaker 3>maybe container rates start coming down, which would be good

0:33:43.440 --> 0:33:46.680
<v Speaker 3>for you. But on the other hand, my understanding is

0:33:46.720 --> 0:33:50.520
<v Speaker 3>that a lot of your produce is shipped via back hall.

0:33:50.800 --> 0:33:54.240
<v Speaker 3>So the ships come over carrying I don't know, toys

0:33:54.360 --> 0:33:57.440
<v Speaker 3>or whatever, and then they're loaded with all the agricultural

0:33:57.480 --> 0:34:00.160
<v Speaker 3>products and they're sent out into the world where ever

0:34:00.280 --> 0:34:03.200
<v Speaker 3>those are going to be processed or sold. So are

0:34:03.240 --> 0:34:06.959
<v Speaker 3>you experiencing any changes in terms of the actual flow

0:34:07.120 --> 0:34:08.000
<v Speaker 3>of ships here.

0:34:08.360 --> 0:34:12.279
<v Speaker 4>That's a great question, and you are absolutely correct. The

0:34:12.440 --> 0:34:17.520
<v Speaker 4>trade flow in the world is dependent on balance. We

0:34:17.600 --> 0:34:21.400
<v Speaker 4>can only fill what comes in full, we send it

0:34:21.480 --> 0:34:24.879
<v Speaker 4>back full. So you know, ultimately it has been an

0:34:24.960 --> 0:34:28.600
<v Speaker 4>Asia trade into North America and a North American trade

0:34:28.640 --> 0:34:31.880
<v Speaker 4>back out to Asia. So far, you know, the disruption

0:34:32.040 --> 0:34:35.040
<v Speaker 4>time period has been small enough that we haven't felt

0:34:35.040 --> 0:34:38.680
<v Speaker 4>it yet, but it's something we're watching very very closely. Now,

0:34:38.880 --> 0:34:42.280
<v Speaker 4>what I think we have to recognize is that although

0:34:42.360 --> 0:34:46.760
<v Speaker 4>President Trump would like to have manufacturing at the snap

0:34:46.800 --> 0:34:49.800
<v Speaker 4>of a finger in the US, it's going to take time.

0:34:49.960 --> 0:34:53.560
<v Speaker 4>If they do succeed in building out domestic capacity for

0:34:53.600 --> 0:34:56.600
<v Speaker 4>a number of these consumer goods that they want to produce,

0:34:57.160 --> 0:34:59.000
<v Speaker 4>and then we have to also be realistic that the

0:34:59.040 --> 0:35:01.400
<v Speaker 4>cost of manufacturing and the cost of production in the

0:35:01.520 --> 0:35:04.000
<v Speaker 4>US is going to be a lot higher on a

0:35:04.080 --> 0:35:06.799
<v Speaker 4>number of these items. So, you know, I still have

0:35:06.960 --> 0:35:09.759
<v Speaker 4>a view that you know, there will be some sort

0:35:09.800 --> 0:35:12.600
<v Speaker 4>of a balanced resolution where there will be some tariffs,

0:35:13.120 --> 0:35:16.920
<v Speaker 4>but there ultimately will still be production around the world

0:35:17.000 --> 0:35:19.719
<v Speaker 4>coming into North America. So you know, I think that

0:35:19.800 --> 0:35:22.760
<v Speaker 4>you know, no matter what, if it doesn't come from China,

0:35:23.239 --> 0:35:25.279
<v Speaker 4>it may have to come from Korea, or it might

0:35:25.320 --> 0:35:28.120
<v Speaker 4>come from you know, Indonesia, or it may come from

0:35:28.400 --> 0:35:31.280
<v Speaker 4>you know, another nation that is set up to manufacture.

0:35:31.840 --> 0:35:33.520
<v Speaker 4>You know, if you look at you know, Apple as

0:35:33.520 --> 0:35:35.479
<v Speaker 4>an example as saying, now, well, we're going to stop

0:35:35.520 --> 0:35:38.160
<v Speaker 4>shipping out of China, We're going to start shipping out

0:35:38.160 --> 0:35:41.640
<v Speaker 4>of India, you know, there's ultimately going to be trade

0:35:41.640 --> 0:35:44.360
<v Speaker 4>flows that are going to come in. So we're watching

0:35:44.360 --> 0:35:49.160
<v Speaker 4>it carefully. We are definitely concerned, but we ultimately know

0:35:49.200 --> 0:35:52.680
<v Speaker 4>the consumption's not going away, so that consumption has to

0:35:52.719 --> 0:35:56.960
<v Speaker 4>be filled somehow, and ultimately it will ultimately be through

0:35:56.960 --> 0:36:00.400
<v Speaker 4>a combination long term of more domestic manufacturing. But you know,

0:36:00.520 --> 0:36:02.719
<v Speaker 4>at the end of the day, that's not going to

0:36:02.800 --> 0:36:05.560
<v Speaker 4>happen in the near term. Next five to seven years

0:36:06.160 --> 0:36:08.960
<v Speaker 4>are going to be transition years. And you know, again

0:36:09.040 --> 0:36:12.560
<v Speaker 4>our supply chains will have to also transition. If we

0:36:12.560 --> 0:36:16.080
<v Speaker 4>don't have container availability, what you'll see is bulk supply

0:36:16.200 --> 0:36:19.360
<v Speaker 4>chains getting bigger, like we're shipping those lentils in a

0:36:19.440 --> 0:36:23.160
<v Speaker 4>vassel to Turkey, and we'll have to be manufacturing elsewhere

0:36:23.280 --> 0:36:25.560
<v Speaker 4>as well, So we'll have to be a part of

0:36:25.560 --> 0:36:29.400
<v Speaker 4>global value chains as they settle in this new geopolitical

0:36:29.600 --> 0:36:32.360
<v Speaker 4>and trade regime in the world.

0:36:32.680 --> 0:36:35.080
<v Speaker 2>I just want to get back to the politics of

0:36:35.160 --> 0:36:38.080
<v Speaker 2>farming for a second, and you mentioned, you know, this

0:36:38.200 --> 0:36:41.160
<v Speaker 2>is one of the most politically sensitive topics because every

0:36:41.160 --> 0:36:45.560
<v Speaker 2>government feels some impulse to take care of their local farmers,

0:36:45.840 --> 0:36:49.080
<v Speaker 2>and also every citizen in the world of every country

0:36:49.120 --> 0:36:52.719
<v Speaker 2>eats and is sensitive to food inflation. And Tracy asked

0:36:52.719 --> 0:36:56.279
<v Speaker 2>about India earlier and they've had an on again, off

0:36:56.320 --> 0:37:00.240
<v Speaker 2>again lentil important tariff. Can you talk a little bit

0:37:00.280 --> 0:37:03.000
<v Speaker 2>more about what you saw there specifically, like both I

0:37:03.000 --> 0:37:06.800
<v Speaker 2>guess the domestic politics of lental tariffs and then again

0:37:06.920 --> 0:37:10.520
<v Speaker 2>like how it affected your business specifically as they've toggled

0:37:10.560 --> 0:37:11.239
<v Speaker 2>that on and off.

0:37:11.560 --> 0:37:14.080
<v Speaker 4>Look, you know, I've been a very vocal advocate over

0:37:14.120 --> 0:37:17.680
<v Speaker 4>the last couple of years to have the Canadian industry

0:37:17.719 --> 0:37:23.560
<v Speaker 4>recognize that the domestic agricultural policy of India is actually

0:37:23.600 --> 0:37:27.840
<v Speaker 4>a sensible policy that the Modi government has no choice

0:37:27.880 --> 0:37:30.799
<v Speaker 4>but to do it. You know, Ultimately, nations in the

0:37:30.840 --> 0:37:36.960
<v Speaker 4>world have to build local production to insulate themselves from

0:37:37.000 --> 0:37:41.600
<v Speaker 4>food security issues. So you know, the view that twenty

0:37:41.719 --> 0:37:45.160
<v Speaker 4>two million tons of production of pulses in India should

0:37:45.160 --> 0:37:48.719
<v Speaker 4>become thirty five million one day will still not even

0:37:48.840 --> 0:37:52.040
<v Speaker 4>keep pace with their domestic consumption. So there's still going

0:37:52.080 --> 0:37:54.560
<v Speaker 4>to be a net importer at that. So how can

0:37:54.600 --> 0:37:58.040
<v Speaker 4>we as a nation, you know, fault another nation from

0:37:58.080 --> 0:38:02.920
<v Speaker 4>trying to encourage local production. We've shifted our dialogue with

0:38:03.040 --> 0:38:05.719
<v Speaker 4>India to say, look, we are the reliable partner to

0:38:05.719 --> 0:38:09.239
<v Speaker 4>fill your gaps. We're going to see in countries like

0:38:09.320 --> 0:38:13.360
<v Speaker 4>India Turkey. Turkey has been doing this for decades from

0:38:13.840 --> 0:38:17.760
<v Speaker 4>May until September of every year when they harvest their crop.

0:38:17.840 --> 0:38:21.880
<v Speaker 4>In June, Turkey has a lentil tariff on. So if

0:38:21.920 --> 0:38:24.920
<v Speaker 4>you're bringing in lentils from Canada, they put a tariff

0:38:24.960 --> 0:38:27.800
<v Speaker 4>on to protect their domestic price of lentils for their farmers,

0:38:28.600 --> 0:38:31.880
<v Speaker 4>and September they take it off to protect against food inflation.

0:38:32.680 --> 0:38:35.400
<v Speaker 4>So these are the ways that tariffs are used to

0:38:35.480 --> 0:38:40.440
<v Speaker 4>build local prices farm receipts and yet not sacrifice the

0:38:40.920 --> 0:38:44.880
<v Speaker 4>domestic prices for affordability. India is going to do the

0:38:44.920 --> 0:38:48.240
<v Speaker 4>same thing, and I think ultimately it's a sensible policy.

0:38:48.800 --> 0:38:51.640
<v Speaker 4>We've got to recognize that trade relationships are no longer

0:38:51.680 --> 0:38:53.760
<v Speaker 4>going to be how do we drive by and sell.

0:38:54.840 --> 0:38:58.239
<v Speaker 4>Nations in the world are looking for two way trade

0:38:58.280 --> 0:39:03.440
<v Speaker 4>investment and innovate and technology development and transfer. So you know,

0:39:03.480 --> 0:39:07.120
<v Speaker 4>we as a company AGT are taking that view. We're

0:39:07.120 --> 0:39:10.880
<v Speaker 4>building a new processing plant near Mumbai where we're going

0:39:10.920 --> 0:39:13.759
<v Speaker 4>to be you know, taking Canadian materials. We're going to

0:39:13.760 --> 0:39:16.520
<v Speaker 4>be processing them in India and we're going to be

0:39:16.560 --> 0:39:18.759
<v Speaker 4>playing in the local market, and we're also going to

0:39:18.800 --> 0:39:21.960
<v Speaker 4>be exporting out of India to nations in Asia where

0:39:22.000 --> 0:39:24.759
<v Speaker 4>they have a competitive advantage. So you know, that's the

0:39:24.760 --> 0:39:28.960
<v Speaker 4>way that you build the long term trade relationship. You know,

0:39:29.080 --> 0:39:32.160
<v Speaker 4>recognizing that we can't sit here and say we want

0:39:32.239 --> 0:39:35.960
<v Speaker 4>terror free access to all markets around the world. We

0:39:36.000 --> 0:39:40.200
<v Speaker 4>have supply management in our country. We're restricting the access

0:39:40.280 --> 0:39:44.319
<v Speaker 4>to our agricultural sector for nations around the world. So

0:39:44.440 --> 0:39:46.799
<v Speaker 4>you know, what you want to be free traders, Let's

0:39:46.960 --> 0:39:48.520
<v Speaker 4>concentrate on the things that we need to do in

0:39:48.560 --> 0:39:51.279
<v Speaker 4>this country. Inner provincial trade barriers have to come down,

0:39:51.800 --> 0:39:54.520
<v Speaker 4>we have to open up our domestic agricultural markets, and

0:39:54.560 --> 0:39:56.239
<v Speaker 4>we have to recognize that we're going to have more

0:39:56.280 --> 0:39:58.479
<v Speaker 4>to gain from free trade than we are to lose

0:39:58.480 --> 0:40:01.480
<v Speaker 4>from free trade. You know, I see this as a

0:40:01.520 --> 0:40:06.759
<v Speaker 4>transitional time where you know, ultimately, you know, deals are

0:40:06.800 --> 0:40:09.880
<v Speaker 4>going to get done and trade is going to happen.

0:40:10.640 --> 0:40:14.759
<v Speaker 4>It has to because economies can't transition quick enough to

0:40:14.880 --> 0:40:17.520
<v Speaker 4>fill the gaps. That's what's ultimately going to drive it.

0:40:18.440 --> 0:40:24.080
<v Speaker 3>So everything you've outlined sounds very sensible. Boosting production in

0:40:24.200 --> 0:40:29.120
<v Speaker 3>North Dakota, setting up more bilateral trade relationships, maybe moving

0:40:29.160 --> 0:40:34.000
<v Speaker 3>some processing capacity elsewhere in the world. But it also

0:40:34.080 --> 0:40:38.160
<v Speaker 3>sounds very expensive and very difficult to do if you

0:40:38.320 --> 0:40:42.440
<v Speaker 3>are a smaller scale farmer. And I guess one of

0:40:42.480 --> 0:40:46.920
<v Speaker 3>the concerns with the rise in trade protectionism in general

0:40:47.200 --> 0:40:50.000
<v Speaker 3>is that you are going to get even more consolidation

0:40:50.560 --> 0:40:53.600
<v Speaker 3>in agriculture. And we know that small scale farmers have

0:40:53.680 --> 0:40:56.880
<v Speaker 3>been suffering for a while. It's difficult to compete against

0:40:57.280 --> 0:41:01.160
<v Speaker 3>giants in the agricultural business. Is that going to become

0:41:01.480 --> 0:41:05.640
<v Speaker 3>even more of a trend in the current circumstances? Like

0:41:05.760 --> 0:41:09.040
<v Speaker 3>is scale going to be essential basically to surviving?

0:41:10.320 --> 0:41:14.960
<v Speaker 4>Scale today is essential to surviving. But that doesn't mean

0:41:15.080 --> 0:41:18.040
<v Speaker 4>that small and medium enterprises don't have a role to

0:41:18.120 --> 0:41:22.960
<v Speaker 4>play in scale. You know, I always counsel entrepreneurs. There

0:41:23.000 --> 0:41:26.000
<v Speaker 4>are you know, different ways in which to achieve scale.

0:41:26.560 --> 0:41:30.279
<v Speaker 4>You can build scale, you can buy scale, or you

0:41:30.320 --> 0:41:34.279
<v Speaker 4>can partner scale. Right, that's it. That's the key. And

0:41:34.560 --> 0:41:37.400
<v Speaker 4>you know what we have not had enough of in

0:41:37.480 --> 0:41:41.120
<v Speaker 4>our economy in Canada. It's a recognition, you know. I

0:41:41.200 --> 0:41:44.800
<v Speaker 4>call it the dinner diner phenomenon. Do you want to

0:41:44.840 --> 0:41:46.880
<v Speaker 4>be dinner or do you want to be a diner?

0:41:47.520 --> 0:41:49.160
<v Speaker 4>I want to be a diner. I want to eat

0:41:49.200 --> 0:41:52.600
<v Speaker 4>other businesses and grow my scale. I don't want to

0:41:52.600 --> 0:41:56.520
<v Speaker 4>build myself to be eaten by somebody else. So ultimately,

0:41:56.520 --> 0:41:59.760
<v Speaker 4>you know, what we encourage is companies have to build

0:41:59.800 --> 0:42:02.959
<v Speaker 4>their ourselves into a link in the global value chain.

0:42:03.560 --> 0:42:06.200
<v Speaker 4>They have to recognize what role they do play and

0:42:06.239 --> 0:42:09.319
<v Speaker 4>they have to link themselves into a supply chain. That

0:42:09.440 --> 0:42:11.400
<v Speaker 4>makes a lot of sense. You know, I was in

0:42:11.840 --> 0:42:14.920
<v Speaker 4>Turkey three days ago. In fact, I was there on

0:42:14.920 --> 0:42:17.879
<v Speaker 4>the earthquake day in Istanbul, so scary day that day,

0:42:18.840 --> 0:42:22.600
<v Speaker 4>but you know, ultimately I was in Turkey meeting with

0:42:23.080 --> 0:42:26.400
<v Speaker 4>you know, customers from Japan. You know, we've linked with

0:42:27.000 --> 0:42:30.799
<v Speaker 4>the major Japanese trading houses on the development of our

0:42:30.840 --> 0:42:35.920
<v Speaker 4>pasta manufacturing business because the large Japanese trading houses have

0:42:36.080 --> 0:42:40.520
<v Speaker 4>strong linkages into the Japanese retail and the Asian distribution

0:42:40.719 --> 0:42:43.680
<v Speaker 4>side of things. So you know, we've recognized, even as

0:42:43.840 --> 0:42:47.000
<v Speaker 4>a relatively large company that we don't have the scale,

0:42:47.000 --> 0:42:50.280
<v Speaker 4>and we're partnering with companies that have one hundred billion

0:42:50.360 --> 0:42:54.120
<v Speaker 4>dollars in revenue because we can't solve that distribution. Or

0:42:54.160 --> 0:42:57.200
<v Speaker 4>in India, we're in discussions with the large majors like

0:42:57.280 --> 0:43:02.200
<v Speaker 4>Tata or Reliance or you know, those types willmar a

0:43:02.280 --> 0:43:04.240
<v Speaker 4>Danny group. I mean, these are the type of companies

0:43:04.239 --> 0:43:09.040
<v Speaker 4>that dominate, you know, the distribution in those nations. So consolidation,

0:43:09.880 --> 0:43:12.960
<v Speaker 4>you know at the farm gate is already happening. I mean,

0:43:13.000 --> 0:43:15.719
<v Speaker 4>can you can you imagine when I was a kid

0:43:15.760 --> 0:43:19.000
<v Speaker 4>growing up again, you know, we as a family had

0:43:19.160 --> 0:43:22.800
<v Speaker 4>four thousand acres of farmland. That was a big farm

0:43:22.840 --> 0:43:26.799
<v Speaker 4>in nineteen seventy eight. Today, at four thousand acres, a

0:43:26.920 --> 0:43:31.239
<v Speaker 4>family can't farm full time. You know, they ultimately will

0:43:31.239 --> 0:43:34.360
<v Speaker 4>need to have a second job. You know. You basically

0:43:34.360 --> 0:43:38.600
<v Speaker 4>say today a mother, father, and a daughter who are

0:43:38.600 --> 0:43:41.080
<v Speaker 4>farming would have to be twelve thousand acres in order

0:43:41.160 --> 0:43:46.040
<v Speaker 4>to sustain a family. So from that perspective, you know, again,

0:43:46.760 --> 0:43:50.080
<v Speaker 4>scale is actually part of our advantage in our agricultural system.

0:43:50.120 --> 0:43:53.680
<v Speaker 4>And we're a low cost, high quality producer. We're competing

0:43:53.680 --> 0:43:55.719
<v Speaker 4>against nations that have one acre and two acre and

0:43:55.800 --> 0:43:59.400
<v Speaker 4>five acre farms that are very manual and not mechanized.

0:44:00.080 --> 0:44:02.279
<v Speaker 4>So ultimately, you know, we have to recognize. I don't

0:44:02.280 --> 0:44:05.000
<v Speaker 4>think it's a bad word. I think it's transition. But

0:44:05.120 --> 0:44:08.000
<v Speaker 4>I do think that SMEs are key. Small and medium

0:44:08.120 --> 0:44:12.200
<v Speaker 4>enterprises are key because they're nimble, they can innovate, they

0:44:12.239 --> 0:44:15.840
<v Speaker 4>can deliver a product that is fitting. You know, sometimes

0:44:15.880 --> 0:44:17.920
<v Speaker 4>bigger companies aren't good at doing things like that. We're

0:44:17.920 --> 0:44:20.719
<v Speaker 4>not nimble enough to do it. We need SMEs to

0:44:20.800 --> 0:44:24.480
<v Speaker 4>make us competitive. We've got to build the ecosystem and

0:44:24.520 --> 0:44:26.680
<v Speaker 4>the linkages. We haven't done that in this country.

0:44:26.960 --> 0:44:29.360
<v Speaker 2>I just have one last question, and it sort of

0:44:29.400 --> 0:44:32.320
<v Speaker 2>relates to the productivity gains that you've seen over the

0:44:32.440 --> 0:44:35.439
<v Speaker 2>years in farming from all kinds of like sensors and

0:44:35.480 --> 0:44:39.200
<v Speaker 2>maybe there's drones involved and stuff like that, or lower

0:44:39.239 --> 0:44:42.560
<v Speaker 2>cost of tractors or whatever. There's obviously a lot of

0:44:42.640 --> 0:44:46.759
<v Speaker 2>anxiety about how much technological products come from China. When

0:44:46.800 --> 0:44:50.359
<v Speaker 2>you look at the farming business in Canada, how much

0:44:50.400 --> 0:44:54.440
<v Speaker 2>of that tech stack that drives productivity gains these days

0:44:54.920 --> 0:44:58.560
<v Speaker 2>comes from a Chinese tech basically, or Chinese manufacturing in

0:44:58.600 --> 0:44:59.640
<v Speaker 2>the form of farm equipment.

0:45:00.000 --> 0:45:02.759
<v Speaker 4>I would say, you know, from my experience, there'd be

0:45:02.760 --> 0:45:06.719
<v Speaker 4>a lot more reliance on the overall Asian manufacturing, not

0:45:06.800 --> 0:45:08.879
<v Speaker 4>just China, and I think that's an advantage for us.

0:45:09.520 --> 0:45:12.799
<v Speaker 4>You know, again, a lot of the sensors and things

0:45:12.840 --> 0:45:15.280
<v Speaker 4>that we use are now manufactured in so many nations

0:45:15.280 --> 0:45:17.600
<v Speaker 4>around the world that we can kind of dodge that.

0:45:18.040 --> 0:45:20.640
<v Speaker 4>They think the key is you know, on the manufacturing side.

0:45:21.080 --> 0:45:22.920
<v Speaker 4>You know, a lot of the farm equipment is you know,

0:45:22.960 --> 0:45:26.759
<v Speaker 4>still very much dominated by US manufacturers, but a lot

0:45:26.800 --> 0:45:29.719
<v Speaker 4>of the core technologies, like zero minimum tillage. You know,

0:45:29.760 --> 0:45:32.560
<v Speaker 4>the center of manufacturing for that technology is Western Canada.

0:45:32.960 --> 0:45:36.080
<v Speaker 4>We're the ones who developed it, you know, companies like

0:45:36.360 --> 0:45:39.440
<v Speaker 4>you know Borgo Industries and you know Flexico Oil and

0:45:39.520 --> 0:45:42.440
<v Speaker 4>Morris Industries. These are industries that were here for the

0:45:42.520 --> 0:45:46.560
<v Speaker 4>last four decades, you know, developing out these zero minimum

0:45:46.560 --> 0:45:50.040
<v Speaker 4>tillage seating systems. All we've done is add on the

0:45:50.080 --> 0:45:54.880
<v Speaker 4>technology to that, GPS, sensors, you know, decision support systems,

0:45:55.239 --> 0:45:58.279
<v Speaker 4>the big guys, the John Deere's the case ih. I mean,

0:45:58.480 --> 0:46:03.799
<v Speaker 4>these are again large global companies who are ultimately driving it.

0:46:04.680 --> 0:46:07.239
<v Speaker 4>Data is something that is going to be a key

0:46:07.280 --> 0:46:12.759
<v Speaker 4>advantage for us. I don't see, you know, vulnerability. Maybe

0:46:12.800 --> 0:46:15.759
<v Speaker 4>I'm overstating. Yes, there's always vulnerability when you have a

0:46:15.760 --> 0:46:19.120
<v Speaker 4>tech stack, but you know, ultimately we're using so many

0:46:19.160 --> 0:46:22.399
<v Speaker 4>different technologies and we're stacking them together that I think

0:46:22.440 --> 0:46:26.120
<v Speaker 4>that ultimately we have something that is not only unique,

0:46:26.600 --> 0:46:28.800
<v Speaker 4>but it's something that you can only implement a scale.

0:46:29.560 --> 0:46:33.680
<v Speaker 4>You can't digitize one acre farms. It's not cost viable.

0:46:34.360 --> 0:46:37.520
<v Speaker 4>You know, we have single farm families, you know in

0:46:37.560 --> 0:46:42.279
<v Speaker 4>west central Saskatchewan, who's seating three hundred thousand acres of

0:46:42.400 --> 0:46:47.240
<v Speaker 4>farmland this year? Three hundred thousand acres. You know, these

0:46:47.320 --> 0:46:51.040
<v Speaker 4>farm families have you know, two generations, there are four

0:46:51.080 --> 0:46:54.000
<v Speaker 4>generations on the farm and they have full time IT

0:46:54.360 --> 0:46:57.279
<v Speaker 4>departments on their farm. So these are not you know,

0:46:57.400 --> 0:47:00.719
<v Speaker 4>corporate farms in the in the mind. Don't forget. We

0:47:00.800 --> 0:47:04.680
<v Speaker 4>still have foreign ownership guidelines that prevent foreign ownership of

0:47:04.719 --> 0:47:07.879
<v Speaker 4>farmland and Saskatchewan as an example. So these are still

0:47:07.880 --> 0:47:10.840
<v Speaker 4>family farms. They've just scaled to be something that is

0:47:10.960 --> 0:47:12.400
<v Speaker 4>very large and very competitive.

0:47:12.800 --> 0:47:16.200
<v Speaker 2>Rad Al Katib the Lentil King of Saskatchewan.

0:47:15.719 --> 0:47:20.120
<v Speaker 3>The leg you Mary Lentil King Legumary of Saskatchewan with

0:47:20.239 --> 0:47:22.040
<v Speaker 3>his pulse on the pulses.

0:47:22.520 --> 0:47:26.080
<v Speaker 2>That was a fantastic I learned a lot in that conversation.

0:47:26.360 --> 0:47:28.200
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for coming on hotlines.

0:47:28.440 --> 0:47:28.799
<v Speaker 4>Thank you.

0:47:42.320 --> 0:47:43.799
<v Speaker 2>That was a lot of fun. There are a lot

0:47:43.840 --> 0:47:47.600
<v Speaker 2>of very interesting strands to pull out from that conversation.

0:47:47.760 --> 0:47:51.240
<v Speaker 2>I do think like the politics of food is definitely

0:47:51.280 --> 0:47:53.840
<v Speaker 2>one of them. And this idea that every government basically

0:47:53.880 --> 0:47:57.200
<v Speaker 2>around the world is trying to balance the distinct demands

0:47:57.200 --> 0:48:00.520
<v Speaker 2>of their local constituency. Food security would which can kind

0:48:00.520 --> 0:48:03.000
<v Speaker 2>of only be ensured by having some sort of local production,

0:48:03.360 --> 0:48:05.000
<v Speaker 2>and then the fact that everyone has to eat.

0:48:05.640 --> 0:48:08.880
<v Speaker 3>Are there any countries or governments out there that don't

0:48:08.920 --> 0:48:11.080
<v Speaker 3>sort of idealize agriculture.

0:48:11.160 --> 0:48:14.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's a great question. I don't know, Like in Singapore,

0:48:14.440 --> 0:48:16.560
<v Speaker 2>did they I don't know. Yes, there's got to be.

0:48:16.520 --> 0:48:20.520
<v Speaker 3>Something Singapore, I guess some Middle East countries, but even there,

0:48:20.560 --> 0:48:24.040
<v Speaker 3>I know they're doing stuff with like hydroponics. Anyway, a

0:48:24.160 --> 0:48:27.680
<v Speaker 3>couple things that stood out to me. So Murrad's comment

0:48:27.840 --> 0:48:33.239
<v Speaker 3>about trade being a balance, especially in global shipping, I

0:48:33.320 --> 0:48:36.640
<v Speaker 3>think is really important. So even if Canada wasn't directly

0:48:36.840 --> 0:48:40.040
<v Speaker 3>affected by something like US tariffs, there would still be

0:48:40.080 --> 0:48:44.520
<v Speaker 3>that knock on effect from ships being re routed around

0:48:44.520 --> 0:48:46.600
<v Speaker 3>the world. And this is something that we saw in

0:48:46.640 --> 0:48:49.440
<v Speaker 3>the pandemic of course, you know, like ships coming over

0:48:49.960 --> 0:48:53.520
<v Speaker 3>full and then returning empty and that being a pretty

0:48:53.560 --> 0:48:56.680
<v Speaker 3>big problem for a bunch of companies and American consumers.

0:48:56.719 --> 0:48:59.400
<v Speaker 3>So that's one thing, and then the other thing is

0:49:00.360 --> 0:49:04.239
<v Speaker 3>the consolidation aspect. It just seems to me like the

0:49:04.400 --> 0:49:06.759
<v Speaker 3>only I mean, we said it right, the only way

0:49:06.800 --> 0:49:10.799
<v Speaker 3>to survive, especially in a world where trade restrictions are

0:49:10.800 --> 0:49:14.600
<v Speaker 3>becoming more popular, really is scale, and it's going to

0:49:14.680 --> 0:49:18.440
<v Speaker 3>be near impossible, I think for the smaller guys to compete.

0:49:18.800 --> 0:49:21.239
<v Speaker 2>I'm glad you asked that question about the back hal

0:49:21.360 --> 0:49:23.319
<v Speaker 2>because this is one of the things that it's been

0:49:23.360 --> 0:49:25.520
<v Speaker 2>wearring me. It's like, you know, people talk about the

0:49:25.600 --> 0:49:29.560
<v Speaker 2>sort of tariffs and from a sort of strictly fiscal standpoint,

0:49:29.680 --> 0:49:31.600
<v Speaker 2>like this is going to raise the cost of X,

0:49:31.640 --> 0:49:33.640
<v Speaker 2>and so there's going to be less but as we

0:49:33.920 --> 0:49:36.960
<v Speaker 2>recently saw it, like there's another knock on effect. And

0:49:37.000 --> 0:49:39.000
<v Speaker 2>I'm glad you brought that up about the fact that

0:49:39.239 --> 0:49:42.040
<v Speaker 2>the ships just might not be there. Yeah, in place,

0:49:42.080 --> 0:49:44.839
<v Speaker 2>there are certain goods that are intermediate goods in some way,

0:49:45.239 --> 0:49:47.640
<v Speaker 2>and so that's how you get these like ripple out

0:49:48.040 --> 0:49:51.640
<v Speaker 2>disruptions beyond just oh this is lost product for me

0:49:51.880 --> 0:49:54.480
<v Speaker 2>or this is lost income for you. I also liked

0:49:54.520 --> 0:49:57.359
<v Speaker 2>how Amurad like sort of you know, talked about the

0:49:57.400 --> 0:49:59.960
<v Speaker 2>calorie is the original form of energy, which I just

0:50:00.080 --> 0:50:02.759
<v Speaker 2>fine to be really important in this idea that the

0:50:02.840 --> 0:50:06.800
<v Speaker 2>productivity in the ag space is pretty extraordinary, and the

0:50:06.840 --> 0:50:10.319
<v Speaker 2>fact that they're still more yield expected. And then the

0:50:10.400 --> 0:50:12.520
<v Speaker 2>question is do you have the rail capacity, do you

0:50:12.600 --> 0:50:17.319
<v Speaker 2>have the export terminal capacity to actually monetize these agreements

0:50:17.360 --> 0:50:18.280
<v Speaker 2>and increased yield.

0:50:18.800 --> 0:50:22.759
<v Speaker 3>I'm just gonna say, lentils are amazing. They're great, and

0:50:22.920 --> 0:50:26.080
<v Speaker 3>I am really really hungry, and I'm crazy like a

0:50:26.120 --> 0:50:26.560
<v Speaker 3>bunch of.

0:50:26.520 --> 0:50:29.319
<v Speaker 2>Doll Yes, I know, I haven't eaten today, and so

0:50:29.320 --> 0:50:31.759
<v Speaker 2>I've had the exact say thought during the entire conversation.

0:50:32.239 --> 0:50:35.000
<v Speaker 3>So good and good for the soil, good for the soil.

0:50:35.200 --> 0:50:36.319
<v Speaker 3>All right, shall we leave it there?

0:50:36.400 --> 0:50:37.120
<v Speaker 2>Let's leave it there.

0:50:37.239 --> 0:50:39.800
<v Speaker 3>This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast.

0:50:39.920 --> 0:50:43.400
<v Speaker 3>I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

0:50:43.040 --> 0:50:45.120
<v Speaker 2>And I'm Joe isn't Thal. You can follow me at

0:50:45.120 --> 0:50:49.440
<v Speaker 2>the Stalwart. Follow our guest He's at marad agt Foods.

0:50:49.880 --> 0:50:53.000
<v Speaker 2>Follow our producers Kerman Rodriguez at Kerman armand dash Ol

0:50:53.000 --> 0:50:56.520
<v Speaker 2>Bennett at Dashbot and Kilbrooks at kle Brooks. For more

0:50:56.520 --> 0:50:59.560
<v Speaker 2>Oddlogs content, go to bloomberg dot com slash Oddlogs. We

0:50:59.600 --> 0:51:02.120
<v Speaker 2>have all of our episodes and a daily newsletter, and

0:51:02.160 --> 0:51:04.800
<v Speaker 2>you can chat about all of these topics, including supply

0:51:05.000 --> 0:51:08.239
<v Speaker 2>chains twenty four to seven in our discord Discord dot

0:51:08.320 --> 0:51:09.439
<v Speaker 2>gg slash.

0:51:09.080 --> 0:51:11.960
<v Speaker 3>Hot lots and if you enjoy all lots, If you

0:51:12.120 --> 0:51:15.280
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