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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 2: Oh.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday Super Bowl fifty nine Props episode. We are

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Speaker 1: welcoming in our very special Action Network colleagues. Two of

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Speaker 1: the best in the business might be the best in

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Speaker 1: the business prop betting experts, Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 1: They are two of Fantasy Pros top ranked NFL player projectionists.

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Speaker 1: You can hear them every week on the must listen

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Flex Podcast. They'll give out some of their favorite

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Speaker 1: super Bowl props with us today. After Shawn and Chris,

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Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell is going to go through the best

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Speaker 1: submissions from our BET three six ' five super Bowl

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Speaker 1: prop contest. At the very end, Well announced the contest

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Speaker 1: winner and have that person join the show. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: Sharp calls, Big Balls, Biggest Bets, Scoot Roulette. All gonna

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Speaker 1: come on Thursday, our final episode before the super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Very exciting week, Plenty of stuff to discuss live remember

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Speaker 1: Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always by my

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Speaker 1: co host, my companion, mikeem Bodre might BFF professional better signon,

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Speaker 1: Hunter at Olsall, I'm.

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Speaker 3: In chad happy super Bowl Week, my man.

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Speaker 1: We made it, brother, little melancholy. You know, we got

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Speaker 1: Raybon on today. You know I love listening not only

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Speaker 1: do the Fantasy Flex with him and Kerner, which I

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Speaker 1: listened to every week when I'm prepping for our show.

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Speaker 1: I also listened to the Action Network pod with Raybon

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Speaker 1: and Stuckey in the Sunday six Pack. And when I

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Speaker 1: listened to it this week, they had the show post

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Speaker 1: last night and Raybon at the end was like, it's

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Speaker 1: our last show with the season. You know, six years,

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Speaker 1: Raybun and Stuck you have been doing that. I love

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Speaker 1: the six Pack, And I was a little bit a

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Speaker 1: little bit sad, little bit teary eyed that we're coming

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Speaker 1: down to our last two episodes before the super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's sad that it's over, but I mean that's

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Speaker 3: how we we'd love and appreciate the season. Brother, It's

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Speaker 3: got to end so we can enjoy what it starts

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Speaker 3: up again next year. That's just part of life.

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Speaker 1: Don't be sad that it's over, signon, Just be happy

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Speaker 1: that it's happened. As a reminder of the Favorites podcast

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Speaker 1: is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used

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Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At Bet three six five. Must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Mister Sean Kerner, mister Chris Raybon, both of

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Speaker 1: you dressed in eagles gear, which worries me a little

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Speaker 1: bit as someone along with Simon who on the two

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Speaker 1: episodes last week, it often described how into the chiefs

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Speaker 1: we were, and Raybon I'm going to ask you specifically

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Speaker 1: about your side later in the show. Just explain to

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Speaker 1: me and to Simon and to those watching on YouTube. Cerner,

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Speaker 1: why are in your Eagle's hat which always makes me nervous.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, don't get nervous, Chad. It's not that big of

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Speaker 4: a deal. I would say all three of my props

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Speaker 4: involve Eagles players in some way, shape or form. Last week,

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Speaker 4: most props involved Chiefs players, so I was wearing a

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Speaker 4: Chiefs hat. So that's that's why I'm rocking the Eagles

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Speaker 4: hat today.

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Speaker 1: Got it, all right? Raybon? Give me the reason for

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Speaker 1: your Eagles gear. You'r Randall Cunningham throwback jersey.

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Speaker 5: During COVID, I had a lot of disposable income. I

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Speaker 5: didn't know what to do with it, so I bought

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Speaker 5: a bunch of jerseys, and really, this is the only

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Speaker 5: time I can wear them.

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Speaker 1: All right, We're gonna get to it then, h Curner

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Speaker 1: and Raybon last week did the first version of their

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Speaker 1: Propapalooza pod. They will do the second one on Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: On last week's version, Remind me if I'm wrong, or

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Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong. Kerner's prop, one of them

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Speaker 1: was Drew Tranquil under seven and a half tackles. It's

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Speaker 1: currently minus one sixty. Also, there was violence inflicted upon me.

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Speaker 1: I mean, who wants who wants to own it?

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Speaker 5: Raybon Hey, I you know Sean was explaining who Drew

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Speaker 5: Tranquil was and I just said, I'm not Chad Milman.

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Speaker 5: I know who Drew Tranquil is. This is not convinced me.

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Speaker 1: For the record. For the record, I'm fully aware of

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Speaker 1: most starters on NFL teams. But it's when you bring

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Speaker 1: out your fucking let's go bet John Beck under a reception,

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Speaker 1: don't don't traumatic traumatic.

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Speaker 4: Experience, John Bates. It's bas there you go, Andrew Beck.

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Speaker 4: Andrew Beck is the other.

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Speaker 1: That's what I mean. When you're bringing outt fourasting receivers

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Speaker 1: that don't even average a catch a game, that's when

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Speaker 1: I might not get it. Okay, So kra like Drew Trankwell,

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Speaker 1: Raybund liked under eight and a half total pass catchers

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Speaker 1: for Kansas City. I think Raybond like no miskicks up

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Speaker 1: to plus one seventy five. Crder liked most tackles and

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Speaker 1: assists is a long shot. Oorn Burks plus three twenty

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Speaker 1: am I missing anything from that one Fellas.

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Speaker 5: Yep, so long ago. They'll do the last week props.

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Speaker 6: Bro let's got on there. We got we got some

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Speaker 6: new ones for you Chad today.

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Speaker 1: I know this week. This week you each have three

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Speaker 1: brand new props for me and Simon, some of which

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Speaker 1: I imagine is previewing prop a pal loser. Maybe these

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Speaker 1: are all special ones. Raybon, kick us off, give us

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Speaker 1: your current best prop.

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Speaker 5: All right, well, I'm not gonna kick us off, but

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Speaker 5: we're gonna go with field goals over one and a

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Speaker 5: half for Kansas City at minus one twenty five. I

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Speaker 5: would bet this up to about minus one fifty. So

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Speaker 5: I think that the Chiefs are going to struggle in

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Speaker 5: a red zone. That's kind of what's been the history

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Speaker 5: of Patrick Mahomes going up against Vic Fangio defenses. He's

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Speaker 5: been able to move the ball, but really struggled in

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Speaker 5: the red zone in Kansas City this year, just number

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Speaker 5: twenty six and fourth down attempts and they've only gone

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Speaker 5: for it twice all year on more than fourth and

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Speaker 5: one with Mahomes starting. So Andy Reid will take the

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Speaker 5: points here. Harrison Bucker fifteen to fifteen. The last two postseasons,

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Speaker 5: Eagles have allowed multiple field goal attempts in all three

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Speaker 5: playoff games, the Chiefs have made two or more and

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Speaker 5: eleven of eighteen Mahome starts two or more in seven

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Speaker 5: of eight against Fangio defenses with Mahomes and six of

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Speaker 5: eight playoff games over the last two postseasons. So I

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Speaker 5: think there's a high likelihood that you get at least

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Speaker 5: two Harrison Butner field goals. I don't even mind laddering

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Speaker 5: you know, three four as well, because I do think

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Speaker 5: that the Eagles are going to be able to get

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Speaker 5: some stops down in the red area.

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Speaker 1: Seven. You got any thoughts on that.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I hope he's right. I was gonna say

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Speaker 3: we're heavy. I'm heavy on the under so that would

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Speaker 3: be pretty nice for me. And I totally agree that,

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Speaker 3: you know, the few defenses that give the issues. I mean,

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Speaker 3: even this season, though we've seen their numbers, it was,

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Speaker 3: what but they round twenty second this year, Chris and

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Speaker 3: the red zone efficiency like exactly twenty. Yeah, this season,

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Speaker 3: they've already struggled with it. So I think it adds

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Speaker 3: to it the fact that you know they've struggled against

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Speaker 3: the defense and their kicker. Before his injury, he was automatic.

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Speaker 3: Even since he's been back, he's been pretty good. And

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Speaker 3: then the fact that they're in a dome, it only

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Speaker 3: adds to me, like in these kicker props even more.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, look, we love the kicker props. We love when

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Speaker 1: Sean and Raybon talk about the kicker prop. So I'm

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Speaker 1: glad Raybon is euphemistically kicking it off with a Kicker

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Speaker 1: prop because I was going to ask them if they

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Speaker 1: were any up that they liked. So that's good, Kerner.

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Speaker 1: Give me your Eagles prop.

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Speaker 4: Well, I'm three of them. But the first one is

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Speaker 4: it's definitely a juicy one. It's Saquon Barkley to have

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Speaker 4: the most rushing attempts in the game at minus three

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Speaker 4: point fifty. This is one I would kind of bet

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Speaker 4: Tenny juice. But you know, Barkley's a massive favorite in

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Speaker 4: this market, rightfully so, but the press should be a

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Speaker 4: lot higher. I mean, his rush tent prop is around

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Speaker 4: twenty one and a half right now. The next closest

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Speaker 4: is cream Hunt at eleven and a half. Then you

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Speaker 4: have Jalen Hurts at nine and a half. Mahomes and

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Speaker 4: Pacheco are both around six unlike yards, where you know,

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Speaker 4: any given play a player can pop off for fifty

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Speaker 4: plus yards. It's a wide range of outcomes. You know,

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Speaker 4: a player can only get one rush attempt on any

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Speaker 4: given play, So the distribution of these props as much tighter.

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Speaker 4: So in my assimulation, I'm showing like a ninety six

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Speaker 4: percent chance he has the most rush attempts. But then

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Speaker 4: you have to factor in, you know, the chances of

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Speaker 4: him getting injured. He would have to get injured before

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Speaker 4: getting like fifteen rush attempts. If he has fifteen rush

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Speaker 4: attempts and he gets nucked out of the game, he'll

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Speaker 4: probably still take down this market. Or like the ideal

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Speaker 4: game script where the Chiefs get up early to a

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Speaker 4: big lead early Kareem Hunt ends up, you know, rushing

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Speaker 4: the ball twenty plus times, Eagles have to get in

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Speaker 4: a pass out of game script. Factoring all that in,

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Speaker 4: I'd say a very conservative project be about eighty five percent,

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Speaker 4: so like minus five sixty for Barkley to lead the

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Speaker 4: game in rush attempts. So I think even though it's

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Speaker 4: juicy and pricey at minus three fifty, I still think

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Speaker 4: there's some value.

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Speaker 1: Here that one doesn't correlate exactly to what I would

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Speaker 1: like to happen in the game. But it's interesting. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's true. I mean it's interesting the delta. I know,

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Speaker 1: you know Raybon and Stuckey Raybon jump in here because

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Speaker 1: I know you and Stuck talked a little bit about

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Speaker 1: Saquon's rushing total prop. And this market was so inflated

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Speaker 1: before the NFC title game opened up, I think a

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Speaker 1: little bit more reasonably for the Super Bowl, but has

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Speaker 1: still been coming down. Do you have any thoughts on

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Speaker 1: his rushing total yardage prop?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: So I think it's still about five yards too high,

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Speaker 5: which you can expect that in a game like this.

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Speaker 5: But one thing that's interesting it kind of goes with

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Speaker 5: what Seawn is saying, is that Sequon Barkley's been busting

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Speaker 5: off these exposive plays almost every game. If he doesn't,

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Speaker 5: they're inversely correlated his yardage and his attempts, right, because

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Speaker 5: if he doesn't bust off a seventy yard or on

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Speaker 5: one carry, he might need you know, eight carries, ten carries,

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Speaker 5: you know, a whole drive worth of carries, whatever that

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Speaker 5: may be, to get that same amount of yards multiple drives.

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Speaker 5: Even so, that's how you kind of have to think

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Speaker 5: about the attempt So just if you want to fade

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Speaker 5: Saquon Barkley or back Saquon Barkley, it's not as simple

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Speaker 5: as just going like over attempts over yards. I think

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Speaker 5: attempts would indicate he's probably struggling a little more than

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Speaker 5: just necessarily. Okay, the Eagles are in a positive game

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Speaker 5: scrip like they're gonna run the ball no matter what,

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Speaker 5: like up down, They'll run the ball as long as

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Speaker 5: they can, especially now, So I think you know, that's

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Speaker 5: something to keep in mind, is that his yardage is

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Speaker 5: gonna be a little inversely correlated with the attempts.

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Speaker 1: He also does tend to disappear sometimes there are there

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Speaker 1: are parts of the game where either there they've got

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Speaker 1: gain well in there for extended looks, or he just

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Speaker 1: sort of is one yard two yard, one yard, two

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Speaker 1: yard and then he breaks Yeah, how did he not?

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Speaker 5: Like he didn't even clear his his yardage prop last

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Speaker 5: in the championship game in the first run he got

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Speaker 5: like sixty sixty seventy yards, So yeah, that that kind of.

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Speaker 4: Well, he was dealing with that calf injury right like

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Speaker 4: he was out of the game.

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Speaker 5: He did Yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 4: I think if if he was healthy, I don't think

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Speaker 4: Gainwell plays more than just a handful of snaps. I

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Speaker 4: think that had to do with Barkley just like actually

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Speaker 4: being injured.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, but I mean he's also when you guys get

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Speaker 5: to that volume level, like you almost gotta project like

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Speaker 5: a half a carrier carry for the backup, just because

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Speaker 5: it's so hard to stay healthy for that many snaps.

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Speaker 5: Like we've seen Barkley. We have a few games now

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Speaker 5: where they're giving him like all the carry. I think

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Speaker 5: even in the Week one he had he missed a

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Speaker 5: couple of players, but it's happened a few times. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: I agree. I don't think Gang Will get much time.

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Speaker 5: Maybe some third down pass blocking stuff.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think people just got unlucky. Right, this guy

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Speaker 3: had fifteen carries and it was in a blowout, and basically, Sirianni,

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Speaker 3: he's just been talking about saving him for this exact game.

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Speaker 3: So this game, I can't see him saving for anything, right,

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Speaker 3: There's no It's the offseason, so to me, I'd be

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Speaker 3: shocked to game Will getting many touches. What's your next prop, Chris?

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Speaker 5: All Right, So, speaking of which, I'm going with both

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Speaker 5: teams combined rushing yardage under two hundred and eighty five

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Speaker 5: and a half. You can get that at minus one

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Speaker 5: fifteen at bet three six five. I think this is

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Speaker 5: way too high. I have these teams projected to combine

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Speaker 5: for just under two hundred and sixty total rushing yards.

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Speaker 5: So Number one Kansas City. They've been struggling to run

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Speaker 5: the ball since they moved Joe Tony to left tackle

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Speaker 5: from guard. Ninety nine carries for the running backs three

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Speaker 5: point five to seven yards per carry since they made

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Speaker 5: that moves. And this is a top two run defense

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Speaker 5: in Philadelphia. On the other side, we've heard it all,

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Speaker 5: you know, all week. Kansas City, they haven't allowed one

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Speaker 5: hundred yard rusher. Now, I think they've had a very

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Speaker 5: easy schedule of opposing run offenses, has the Chiefs. But

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Speaker 5: I still think they're a good run defense because of

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Speaker 5: Steve Spagnol. Remember last two Super Bowls against Philly a

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Speaker 5: couple of years ago, they had a top five running offense.

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Speaker 5: He held them to three point six yards of carry

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Speaker 5: on thirty two carries. San Francisco comes in last year

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Speaker 5: top three rushing offense. Christian McCaffrey. How are we going

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Speaker 5: to stop them? Kansas City's one of the worst run defenses,

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Speaker 5: number twenty seven. They hold him to thirty one for

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Speaker 5: one to ten. The Niners total for the game just

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Speaker 5: three point five five yards per carry. So Spagnol's gonna

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Speaker 5: kind of he's gonna kind of switch into front's weight

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Speaker 5: in the down and kind of confuse them that way,

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Speaker 5: and you know, make Jalen Hurts make some checks and

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Speaker 5: things like that, so they'll find a way to slow

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Speaker 5: them slow Barkley down. I don't think he'll hop off

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Speaker 5: quite as much as he has the last couple of games.

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Speaker 5: And if you just look at the numbers philadelph you

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Speaker 5: combined rushing yards over this number in twelve or nineteen,

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Speaker 5: but Kansas City games hasn't happened all year. So you

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Speaker 5: look at the two teams combined, that's just twelve of

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Speaker 5: thirty eight, just thirty two percent. So and that's you know,

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Speaker 5: that's kind of what you're expecting here, which is why

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Speaker 5: I think this market is massively inflated, as you will

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Speaker 5: see for most of just offensive numbers to deal with

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Speaker 5: yardage and touchdowns. But yeah, I think this is about

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Speaker 5: twenty five yards too high, so it can be combining

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Speaker 5: rushing yards under two hundred and eighty five and a

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Speaker 5: half for both teams rushing that.

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Speaker 1: Does feel insanely high, going completely against expectation for the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: who the last what three or four games we've seen

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Speaker 1: since Isaiah Picheco came back, He's not being used in

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Speaker 1: the same way. He's not getting as many carries. It's

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Speaker 1: really much more about Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunt banging it

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Speaker 1: up the middle. Kareem Hunt five six, seven, eight yards

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Speaker 1: at the most, except when you know we have under

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Speaker 1: ten and a half yards for his longest carry. Oh

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Speaker 1: does that you know once in a four game span.

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Speaker 1: It just happens to be the game that we bet it.

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Speaker 1: But generally like this is not a big rushing team.

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Speaker 1: And with Joe Toney at left tackle, like Caliendo has

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Speaker 1: not been the same player.

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Speaker 5: Oh he's been terrible. Rights, So they both have like

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Speaker 5: they would both rank like bottom five. You know if

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Speaker 5: they had their PFF run blocking grade over the full year.

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Speaker 5: Since Tooney went to tackle and kali Endo went to guard,

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Speaker 5: it essentially made their run blocking worse at both spots.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, right, the only difference is now maybe my

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Speaker 1: Holmes is a little bit more protected at left tackle.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, but he also has like these negative ten yard

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Speaker 5: kneel downs that Sean knows very well. So, uh, that's

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Speaker 5: another way that you could like get like an out

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Speaker 5: to get under this number, even if you're kind of

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Speaker 5: sweating it, you know, maybe it's hanging around that to

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Speaker 5: eighty mark. You know, if Mahomes does to take some

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Speaker 5: kneel downs, you're you're you're definitely going backwards.

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Speaker 3: Also, you even talk about, I mean these both these

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Speaker 3: teams bleed clock. So even if the run game is

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Speaker 3: not working, both teams will still run it. That's who

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Speaker 3: they are in the second half. So that's even better

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Speaker 3: where you know, it could be a lot of thirty

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Speaker 3: and eight thirty sevens that they ran a two times

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Speaker 3: and the both teams won't care if they pick of

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Speaker 3: the first town, they'll probably run it twice again if

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Speaker 3: either team has a lead, Like they just both teams

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Speaker 3: their scripts all season have been leaning on the run

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Speaker 3: heavy in the second half. It just bleeds clock. So

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Speaker 3: like you said, even if both teams aren't successful, they're

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Speaker 3: still going to keep doing it and still keep eating

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Speaker 3: away at that clock, which plays even more to this

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Speaker 3: prop going under.

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Speaker 1: It's a really good point. Curner fire away.

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Speaker 6: All right.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know I already gave out a minus three

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Speaker 4: point fifty props, So let's go with a long shot here,

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Speaker 4: let's go. The first sack of the game is going

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Speaker 4: to go to Nolan Smith at sixteen to one. You know,

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Speaker 4: Smith was their first round pick last year, didn't do

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Speaker 4: much as a rookie, but he's really started to break

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Speaker 4: out over the final few weeks of the season and

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Speaker 4: ended the playoff. He actually leads the Eagles in pressures

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Speaker 4: since week fifteen with twenty three. He now is a

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Speaker 4: sack in each three rounds of the playoffs so far.

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Speaker 4: So if he gets a sack in the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 4: he'll be the first player ever to have a sack

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Speaker 4: in four playoff games.

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Speaker 6: So he's just on fire right now.

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Speaker 4: He might be going up against you know, right tackle

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Speaker 4: Jwon Taylor for most of the game, who's allowed a

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Speaker 4: team high forty one pressures.

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Speaker 6: So I love the matchup. You know, love is upside here.

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Speaker 4: He actually has my He's tied for the second highest

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Speaker 4: sack projection in this game. So you know, I show

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Speaker 4: a fair price for the first sack closer to plus

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Speaker 4: eight point fifty and we're getting sixteen to one on this.

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Speaker 4: This is offering too much value. It's also a fun

355
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Speaker 4: sweat too. I mean, who knows him the first sack

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Speaker 4: is going to be. But this is the market I

357
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Speaker 4: haven't bet on before. I haven't even seen a price

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Speaker 4: for this yet. But yeah, sixteen to one Nolan Smith

359
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Speaker 4: signed yep for that.

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Speaker 1: That does seem like fun. But as soon as you

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Speaker 1: wrote it down, I'm like, that's every single time Kansas

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Speaker 1: City drops back, there's going to be a super, super

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Speaker 1: exciting sweat happening with Nolan Smith. Evan is reporting that

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Speaker 1: this is what five to one.

365
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Speaker 3: I got it? Okay, no, no, no, he's saying this

366
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 3: is basically five to one every book and the one

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Speaker 3: Shawn's giving out. Go get it at bedt through six

368
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Speaker 3: five because it's insanely great value.

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Speaker 1: Ah got it all right.

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Speaker 3: And just to reiterate what he's saying, Nolan Smith has

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Speaker 3: already set the record for most sacks and Eagles history

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Speaker 3: in the playoffs. That's how impressive this kid has been.

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Speaker 3: He's gotten four sacks. Yeah, I know it's crazy, but

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Speaker 3: it was Brandon Graham at three and a half and

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Speaker 3: he just broke it by getting his fourth sack. So

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Speaker 3: when you really go through it, this kid every week,

377
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Speaker 3: like Shawn's breaking down, he's gotten better. This is the

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Speaker 3: type of game where they've been watching film on someone

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Speaker 3: for two weeks. They're gonna set them up, like they're

380
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Speaker 3: gonna know a move that's gonna work on this guy.

381
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Speaker 3: And like I like Sean saying, I love the those odds.

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Speaker 3: That's a great price for a guy to been waiting

383
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Speaker 3: two weeks. First, first drop back. He could set this

384
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Speaker 3: guy up for a little you know, knock his arms down, whatever,

385
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 3: swinging on them. Like, there's just a bunch of things

386
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Speaker 3: you go into when there's really good pass rushers against

387
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Speaker 3: subpar tackles. They know their weaknesses by this game, and

388
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Speaker 3: they know which is gonna work. So I love that value,

389
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Speaker 3: especially the fact that it's sixteen to one right now.

390
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:16,680
Speaker 3: That's that's insanely high.

391
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Speaker 1: Well, you know what's interesting about having the two weeks,

392
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Speaker 1: and I think this goes for all three of you,

393
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Speaker 1: really is it's no different than Andy Reid Spagnolo Fango.

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Speaker 1: You've got two weeks to game plan for your weaknesses

395
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Speaker 1: and to game plan for another team's strengths. Right, So

396
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Speaker 1: let's say Kerner or Raybon or Simon Kerner start with you.

397
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Speaker 1: Over these two weeks, how much do you have to

398
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Speaker 1: incorporate the idea that someone might be looking to defend

399
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,919
Speaker 1: against a trend that you've been identifying that is on

400
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:56,440
Speaker 1: thep swing?

401
00:20:58,160 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 6: What do you mean exactly?

402
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 1: So over let's say, like on a week to week basis, Yeah,

403
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Speaker 1: there's only so much game planning someone can do to

404
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Speaker 1: improve their weakness against a team's strength. But over two weeks,

405
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Speaker 1: there's a lot of time to try to figure out

406
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Speaker 1: what that answer is. Right, So you're basing this based

407
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Speaker 1: on models that are identifying what you think are opportunities

408
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 1: or deltas in numbers, whatever the case may be. But

409
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Speaker 1: coaches are probably looking at that and thinking, Okay, that's

410
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Speaker 1: a tendency we need to fix. So don't you have

411
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Speaker 1: to account for that when you're modeling.

412
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Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure, And I think, like, you know, I'm

413
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Speaker 4: going to use math for you know, ninety nine percent

414
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Speaker 4: of the way to get there and then kind of

415
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 4: incorporate that. And it kind of goes back to what

416
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Speaker 4: we're saying with Saquon Barkley, Like, obviously the Chiefs are

417
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Speaker 4: going to have a couple weeks. The game plan like,

418
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Speaker 4: how do we slow down Saquon Barkley? And I think

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Speaker 4: they have the scheme and coaching staff to do that.

420
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Speaker 4: So I'm probably a little bit lower on Barkley than

421
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Speaker 4: most in the market kind of going with what you're

422
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Speaker 4: saying is like the extra planning, uh to you know,

423
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Speaker 4: slow down somebody that's been unstoppable like Barkley. I think

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Speaker 4: it's more likely to be able to do that with

425
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Speaker 4: the extra week for sure.

426
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Speaker 5: Yeah, and Chad, I think what you're getting at is,

427
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Speaker 5: you know, stuck. You and I talked on the on

428
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Speaker 5: the pod about how a lot of times when you

429
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Speaker 5: have these pass thrushes and you know you're just gonna

430
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Speaker 5: get the ball out quick, and that's what's kind of

431
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 5: been happened with Mahomes and and and even Hurts, you know,

432
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,399
Speaker 5: got the ball quicker in the championship. However, I like

433
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 5: Sean's bet because the Eagles are a lot more predictable

434
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:33,919
Speaker 5: sack wise, pass rush wise, because Fangio already got burned

435
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 5: with the blitz. He's probably he usually does not blitz Mahomes.

436
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 5: It just doesn't really work, and so you're gonna have

437
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 5: you're not gonna get as many disguised pressures and guys

438
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,959
Speaker 5: coming from every which way like you are with Spagnol,

439
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,280
Speaker 5: who I think on the decisive play that Bills game,

440
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 5: I think he sent one of the corners. I think

441
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 5: he said it was either I think it was McDuffie

442
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 5: or somebody. So yeah, it's like that's with the Eagles.

443
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 5: You're not gonna get as much of that now. Of

444
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 5: course you could. It's the super Bowl to try to

445
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 5: break tendency, but they're gonna play it a lot more

446
00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 5: straight up, just because they have that kind of talent

447
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 5: and you know, they've tried it the other way and

448
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,640
Speaker 5: it hasn't really worked, so it's easy. I think it's

449
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 5: a little easier to bet their sacks and predict them

450
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 5: and model them than it is for the Chiefs.

451
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 3: Also, sometimes there's nothing you can really do, Like these

452
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 3: teams are so great. There's such at high levels. Like

453
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 3: my favorite thing everyone was talking about GM, you know

454
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 3: years ago after Mahomes came to the league and he

455
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 3: was like, yeah, well, guys know the books out on

456
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 3: him force them to his left right, so overload the

457
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:32,000
Speaker 3: right side. And obviously Andy Reid they knew that the Chiefs.

458
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 3: He came in next year, he was perfect going to

459
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 3: his left, So now teams only do that anymore. Right,

460
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 3: it's all about getting up the middle on my homes.

461
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 3: So it's just funny where it's like, I'm with you, Chad,

462
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 3: there's there's gonna definitely moves. These guys will make the

463
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 3: just pieces, right, But at the end of the day,

464
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 3: it's like the Eagles run maybe four or five plays

465
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 3: honestly running the ball all season and no one can

466
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 3: stop it. Like that's how dominant they've been. So I

467
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 3: agree with you. There's gonna be things they're gonna try

468
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 3: to do and adjust in different looks, but at the

469
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 3: end of the day, it's like, you know, you just

470
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:00,959
Speaker 3: can't stop great and this all you hope to do

471
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 3: is slow it down a little bit. So that's interesting

472
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,640
Speaker 3: part of this one. It's like the already knows Spags

473
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 3: knows he can't stop this Seagull's rushing team. If he

474
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 3: can limit them in the red zone, that's gonna be

475
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 3: the key to this game.

476
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 1: Well, let's hope that the Eagles and Chiefs combined for

477
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:15,360
Speaker 1: less than two hundred and eighty five and a half

478
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 1: rushing guys Simon. The upcoming Super Bowl reminds me of

479
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: an old parable, the story of the scorpion and the frog,

480
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 1: who sit at the bank of a river. The scorpion

481
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 1: asks the frog to carry him across, but the frog resists,

482
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 1: fearing the scorpion will sting him as they cross. The

483
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 1: scorpion argues he'd never do that since it would doom

484
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 1: them both. So the frog agrees and begins swimming across

485
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:51,240
Speaker 1: the river with the scorpion pawn his back. But sure enough,

486
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 1: midway across the river, the scorpion does sting the frog,

487
00:24:56,480 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 1: spelling disaster for them. Both philosopher ers argue about the

488
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 1: lesson of this tale as they grapple with the nature

489
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: of good and evil, But to me, the takeaway is simple.

490
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 1: Neither the fraud nor the scorpion we're able to make

491
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 1: rational decisions nor operate in their own best interests because

492
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: they have never experienced the breathable, policible comfort of our

493
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494
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Speaker 1: here raving about Tommy John. Simon, why will you be

503
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Speaker 1: wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: Five because comfort is king Right.

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508
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites, Simon. The inevitable

509
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 1: question is which one of us is the scorpion and

510
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: which one of us is the frog.

511
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 3: M I'm probably the scorpion.

512
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:47,360
Speaker 1: I think you are too.

513
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:48,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's be honest.

514
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 1: I think one hundred percent. I don't even think. I

515
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: don't even think there's a question. Matt Mitchell is killing

516
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 1: it with these. He is on a roll. Yeah, Like

517
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: I just look to these.

518
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 3: Honestly, that gave me a view in it what I've

519
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 3: been like you reading me a bedtime story chat, And

520
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 3: I don't know, I don't know how I feel about it.

521
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,199
Speaker 1: Really, I feel like, you know what, When I was

522
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 1: reading it, I did feel like I was reading it

523
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 1: in sort of the voice tone and temper that I

524
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 1: used to read stories to my kids, and I felt

525
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: like I was killing it. The stage is set for

526
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty nine and all the bets to come.

527
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538
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Speaker 1: off Action Pro. Here's a prop like Everyone's opinion on this.

539
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 1: Here's a prop on Nick Giffen raised when he was

540
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: on with Simon and I last week and then also

541
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 1: discuss on Propapalooza Part one that he did with Grant Nieffer.

542
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 1: And I know, like the in the touchdown projections coroner,

543
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy has consistently been undervalued. So what about a

544
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown plus under five and a half receptions?

545
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: Which Nick Giffen loved when we were discussing it last week.

546
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, anything Nick Giffin does, I approve. I love the

547
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 4: idea because I mean Worthy can score a touchdown with

548
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 4: a design Russia attempt, so he has he already has

549
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 4: a clear have to do this. But I think, yeah,

550
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 4: his reception prop it's also a bit high. He's explosive,

551
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think it makes a ton of sense.

552
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 4: And of course it came up, but that's that's a

553
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 4: genius idea.

554
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's completely contrary, right, like because also there's a

555
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 1: lot of conversations like Xavier Worthy is going to be Simon,

556
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: I don't even know if you've noticed this, Like Xavier

557
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,959
Speaker 1: Worthy is going to be one of those players who

558
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 1: people want to bet on MVP. That isn't Jalen Hurt,

559
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley, Patrick Mahomes right, because that's what always happens.

560
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 1: You want to bet on that receiver, you know, who

561
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 1: has longish odds, who's the recipient of all the passes

562
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 1: as a contrarian play to the quarterback, who is most

563
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: likely to win it could be.

564
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 3: Also, I don't hate it just because we've already seen

565
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 3: the Eagles. As good as they are, they do have

566
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 3: some guys that are young in experience, and you saw

567
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 3: that with Terry McLaurin right, one mistackle and he broke it,

568
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 3: and the same can be saying here with Worthy. It's

569
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 3: like the type of defense that, yeah, if you make

570
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 3: one guy miss the way the Eagles play aggressive, especially

571
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 3: with their safeties, he could easily break one. But we've

572
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 3: seen the Eagles. They have some really good, great corners,

573
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: so you know if they put Quinny on Mitchell on him,

574
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 3: his night might be over and then you're good to go. Though,

575
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 3: you got the one catch right touchdown and this comes through.

576
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 3: So I definitely love the mind game of this one,

577
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 3: where it's like any Reid will find a way to

578
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 3: get this guy the ball, but it's all about the

579
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 3: matchup so he gets the wrong corner on him, he

580
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 3: just won't get the touches. So yeah, that feels a

581
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 3: little hot in me honestly, having him over five and

582
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 3: a half receptions. It's attack the Eagles, you attack the

583
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 3: middle of the field, right, We've seen that with the

584
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 3: tight ends these last couple weeks. So interesting that that's

585
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 3: that high.

586
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: That was at about four to one last week when

587
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 1: Giffen talked about it on the show Ray Bond. You

588
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 1: and Stucky talked a little bit about Dallas Goddard on

589
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast on the six Pack. Stucky's been

590
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: making bank on Dallas Goddard during the playoffs. Do you

591
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 1: have any thoughts on his reception totals which are getting

592
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:06,479
Speaker 1: kind of expect kind of high, and on his yardage totals. Again,

593
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 1: he's been a guy who throughout the playoffs, everyone at

594
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 1: Action has been betting what do you like or not

595
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 1: like about his current prices?

596
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 5: So I think his reception prop is is too high,

597
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 5: Like you're betting him to get five catches. There's a

598
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 5: lot of ways that that could backfire. You know, Eagles

599
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,840
Speaker 5: explosive plays in either facet that are not Dallas Goddard

600
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 5: Eagles to just have one of those games where they

601
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 5: pass on their you know, like twenty five times, which

602
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,239
Speaker 5: is a very common thing for them. There's a lot

603
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 5: of ways that could go wrong. So I would rather

604
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 5: go with the yards because I think the Chiefs they've

605
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 5: given up the most yards to tight ends, like that's

606
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 5: they struggle with tight ends. Goddard. It's the most likely

607
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 5: to get a matchup on the weakest cheeks defender on

608
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 5: the field, whoever that might be Bolton, you know, whoever,

609
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 5: in coverage. So I think the yardage is better. But

610
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 5: and going back to the Worthy thing, I think what's

611
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 5: interesting with Worthy is and the reason why his reception

612
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 5: number is higher is because Andy Reid loves screens. In

613
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 5: the postseason, into two games, Worthy's had five screens thrown

614
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 5: to him total. Those are usually free catches, but he's

615
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 5: actually only caught three of the five. Usually you're expecting

616
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 5: him to catch five of the five. So I think

617
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 5: that's why the books are, you know, at that five

618
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 5: and a half number for Worthy, But five six catches

619
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 5: is a lot. It's easier to get when you get screens.

620
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 5: But got her to get five is that's that's kind

621
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 5: of a stretch. You know, I think the median is

622
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 5: closer to four, but so I would go yardage if

623
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 5: I'm trying to to bat Goddard at this point.

624
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: Yeah. What's interesting about those screens, and it speaks to

625
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: what you talked about earlier, Raybund, is what the Chiefs

626
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 1: have done is turn themselves into a quick passing screen,

627
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 1: long handoff offense. Maybe it's because of how they're being

628
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 1: played downfield, but also because I think Andy Reid is

629
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: just trying to account for that that is offensive line. Yeah,

630
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,959
Speaker 1: it's just completely trash. There's nothing else he can do.

631
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, and he has some speed now, he has some

632
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 5: speed at the receiver positions with Brown and Worthy, so

633
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 5: now they can make it work. I mean, if you

634
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 5: think about their receiving corps, Hopkins, Juju and Marky's Brown,

635
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 5: like they're kind of like afterthoughts, but like these guys

636
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 5: are all like thousand yard you know, former number one

637
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 5: receivers not even that long ago. But and then we're

638
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 5: these kind of the key cogs. So they have they

639
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 5: have enough pieces now to kind of make it work

640
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 5: with the quick game.

641
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, but when you name all those players Hopkins, Juju, Brown,

642
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: and you compare them to aj Brown DeVante Smith. Like,

643
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 1: there's so many places in this game where the roster

644
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 1: is overwhelmingly talent wise in favor of the Eagles. The

645
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 1: only thing the Chiefs have happens to be the two

646
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: most important things, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

647
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, because even Spags, Spags and Fangio, I mean Fangos,

648
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 5: no Spags. But he's up there, he's up.

649
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 1: Oh No, I listen to me. This game is about Spags,

650
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: Read and Mahomes. That's why you bet I'm the Chiefs

651
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 1: At the end of the day. I want to get

652
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 1: into the sides and the totals a little bit, you know,

653
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 1: at the end, before we get out of here. But Crooner,

654
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: give me your next best prop.

655
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm going to go with this, Will any

656
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,720
Speaker 4: player have one hundred plus rushing yards?

657
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 6: I'm going to go with no at plus two ten.

658
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 4: And obviously Saquon Barkley is a serious threat to this prop.

659
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,760
Speaker 4: I'm pretty much in line with his his rushing yard prop.

660
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 4: I have it around one hundred and ten. Uh. I

661
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 4: agree with raybun earlier saying, you know, it could be

662
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 4: a little bit high still, but at the end of

663
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 4: the day, I'm giving him around a fifty eight percent

664
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 4: chance or you know, minus one forty to clear one

665
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,919
Speaker 4: hundred yards. But if he stays under that, like, who

666
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 4: the hell else is going to clear this number. Both

667
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 4: quarterbacks have rushing upside, but neither one has cleared one

668
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 4: hundred yards of the season. The last time either one

669
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 4: has cleared it was Jalen Hurts back in Week twelve,

670
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 4: three seasons ago, back in twenty twenty two. You know,

671
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 4: Cream Hunt might need thirty plus carries to clear one

672
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 4: hundred yards. So I'm showing about, you know, a five

673
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 4: percent chance a non Barkley player clear's one hundred yards.

674
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 4: But if you think about it like that five percent

675
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 4: of the time most of the time, like Barkley's also

676
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 4: clearing hundred yards. So you know, in that situation you'd

677
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 4: have two players clear hundre yards. So in my sim

678
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,919
Speaker 4: I have it closer at about you know, sixty one

679
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 4: percent chance we do see a player, probably Saquon Barkley,

680
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 4: clear it. So I have the fair price of no

681
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,840
Speaker 4: player closer to you know, plus one fifty five to

682
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 4: not clear one hundred yards. So I'm showing quite a

683
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 4: bit of value on this. No at plus two to

684
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:00,360
Speaker 4: ten right now.

685
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 1: I am I'm not surprised at all that the pattern

686
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: we are seeing develop here is lower rushing totals, which

687
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 1: is in line with expectations. The Chiefs are doing something

688
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 1: to put the Eagles in a disadvantageous position where they

689
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:23,320
Speaker 1: have to come back. Raybon, what's your last bet?

690
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 5: So I actually think that the the theme is just

691
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 5: offensive numbers in general are inflated. So for this one,

692
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 5: I'm going with combined passing touchdowns for both teams under

693
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 5: two and a half at plus one point fifty. And

694
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 5: this may seem scary, but if you look at the

695
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 5: Eagles playoff games under two and a half passing touchdowns

696
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:51,959
Speaker 5: combined has Hitten all three, they've had two exactly in each.

697
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 5: Kansas City even had a playoff game where they only

698
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,879
Speaker 5: had one combined passing touchdown in that in that used

699
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 5: to game. So four out of the five playoff games

700
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 5: between these two teams thus far, you've gone under this number.

701
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 5: And then you look at it for the season, and

702
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 5: Kansas City about seven of eighteen and the Eagles eleven

703
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,720
Speaker 5: of eighteen, so it's about a fifty to fifty shot.

704
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 5: So I think this should be a lot closer to

705
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 5: even money. I have it at about about plus one

706
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 5: twenty five fair odds, so I bet this to about plus

707
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 5: one thirty here. But you know, just going off to

708
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:34,879
Speaker 5: pass data, it's about even money. And if you look

709
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:38,880
Speaker 5: at Hurts one or fewer passing touchdowns eleven of eighteen starts,

710
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:43,919
Speaker 5: he has no three touchdown games, so Mahomes has about four,

711
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,399
Speaker 5: so he could ruin it. But there's a very good

712
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 5: chance that you know, with the Eagles red zone defense strength,

713
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 5: and you know the way the Eagles like to do

714
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 5: their business with the touch push and whatnot, that you

715
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 5: stay under this number. And I think it's being its

716
00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 5: being undervalued here because who wants to bet under you know,

717
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 5: two and a half touchdowns with passing touchdowns with Mahomes

718
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 5: with nobody, So yeah, give you under two and a

719
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 5: half combined passing touchdowns at plus them fifty.

720
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 1: Well. Also, this is perfectly correlated to your first prop,

721
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 1: which is over one and a half field goals by

722
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,879
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. If you believe that the Chiefs will kick

723
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 1: more than one and a half field goals, then part

724
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: of you has to believe the Patrick Mahomes is not

725
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 1: going to throw multiple touchdown passes, which makes this a

726
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 1: perfect combination.

727
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 6: And he can also run.

728
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 5: He's running a lot more. You know, he showed he'd

729
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 5: even you know, take a designed run around and go on.

730
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 5: So there's a lot of different a lot of different outs.

731
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 5: But yeah, in general, I think offensive numbers are are

732
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 5: inflated in the market, and you know, probably waiting too

733
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 5: closer to the end of the week some of the

734
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 5: other prop shows we'll do to do some player props

735
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 5: because those are going to keep going up. But that's

736
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 5: kind of the theme for I think both of us

737
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,839
Speaker 5: is just kind of finding these inflated offensive numbers pass

738
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 5: or run.

739
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 3: I love this point too, because both these teams player

740
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 3: and stuff out on offense, which is super conservative and safe,

741
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 3: and we know the deal when you get in the

742
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,359
Speaker 3: red zone, that literally can kill the game, right if

743
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 3: you make a red zone turnover. So one of my

744
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 3: favorite bets of correlates with this is Eagles over one

745
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 3: and a half rushing touchdowns. It's minus one thirty. A

746
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:16,720
Speaker 3: lot of books I'm seeing Bethtew six five is already

747
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 3: up to minus one forty. I still love that price

748
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 3: for that prop, just because I think Eagles, you've seen

749
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 3: it time and time again, Like it can be second

750
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 3: and eight thirty eight and the Eagles are running on

751
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 3: that down if they can just get it to two yards,

752
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 3: and they usually think the defense will dropped back. So

753
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of opportunity to playing that.

754
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 3: I agree with Chris that you know, both these teams

755
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 3: when they do get down there, they do play conservative,

756
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 3: like they just don't want to turn the ball over.

757
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 3: That's just both been their remo because they've just believe

758
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 3: in both their defenses. So I do love this play,

759
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 3: and there's a lot of ways to correlate it with

760
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 3: a lot of other props.

761
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 1: Well, look, these are all props that are tending towards

762
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 1: a game in which we expected to go under, and

763
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 1: that under now is anywhere from forty eight and a

764
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 1: half to forty nine and a half. Most places forty

765
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 1: eight and a half be three. SIS five is still

766
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 1: at forty nine and a half. I guess that in

767
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 1: any other game it makes sense. But if you look

768
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:15,280
Speaker 1: at the past Super Bowls, the second half for five

769
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 1: six touchdowns scored with the Chiefs, all in games other

770
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,760
Speaker 1: than that Bucks game where I think they were losing

771
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 1: by a touchdown. By ten points. How do we factor

772
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 1: in the explosive nature of sort of unexpected outcomes in

773
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl? Simon, I mean.

774
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 3: It's tough to say. Like a lot of a lot

775
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:40,879
Speaker 3: of the players that talk about it say it's because

776
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 3: of the halftime, right, They're just they're not used to

777
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 3: going from ten minute halftime to thirty minute halftime. And

778
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 3: that's just you know, the human element of that. That's

779
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,400
Speaker 3: a big deal. Right, That's a lot of really high adrenaline,

780
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:54,280
Speaker 3: especially heading to the game the first half, and now

781
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 3: you're just relaxing for thirty minutes. And to me, both

782
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 3: these teams should know how to handle, right, I mean

783
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,439
Speaker 3: they were literally played against the other just two years ago,

784
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 3: and like to your point, the Chiefs they've been the

785
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 3: best team. I mean maybe, I mean, I guess Tom

786
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 3: Brady was great at it two, but they're incredible second half.

787
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 3: I Mean every time Mahomes is down, you know, ten

788
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 3: points or whatever going to halftime in the Super Bowl,

789
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 3: he comes out on fire. And even that Eagles game,

790
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 3: you go back and watch it, I think he scored

791
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 3: three straight touchdowns and then kicked the field goal at

792
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 3: the end to win it all. So yeah, that's that's

793
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 3: an interesting point you bring up chat. It's it's clear

794
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 3: effected the defense is more so than the offense. We've

795
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 3: seen both teams usually come out on fire in the

796
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 3: second half rather than the first half.

797
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 1: The first half total right now, I'm just checking here

798
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 1: in the Action Network app is twenty four, twenty three

799
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 1: and a half or twenty four and a half depending

800
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 1: on where you look. Does anybody have an opinion on

801
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 1: the first half total knowing there might be some cookiness

802
00:41:58,160 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 1: in the second half, and for the ranking for the

803
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 1: for the record, like luck rankings Kroner we had Nick

804
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 1: on there is no advantage luck rankings wise in this

805
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: game for the total or the side for that matter.

806
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I do tend to lean towards the under here.

807
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 4: We've been talking about it. Both teams play pretty methodically.

808
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 4: They run the ball a ton. Maybe we won't see

809
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 4: a Saquon Barkley sixty plus yard rushing touchdown here, and

810
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 4: it actually takes them, you know, seven or eight more

811
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 4: plays to score if they do. But yeah, I'm leaning

812
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 4: towards the end. That's an interesting take to just take

813
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 4: the first half under. I might consider that, especially, you know,

814
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 4: a number like twenty four. If you can get that

815
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 4: key number, I think that makes a ton of sense.

816
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:44,239
Speaker 4: But I think if anything, yeah, I'll be on the

817
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 4: under here.

818
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 1: All right, Well that's what was gonna be my next question, Raybon,

819
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 1: I know where you stand. Tell the listeners, tell the

820
00:42:54,280 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 1: viewers your opinion on the side, total winning team, whatever

821
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:00,920
Speaker 1: it is.

822
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the chiefs of the right side. I

823
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,720
Speaker 5: think the Eagles have the better roster. I do agree

824
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 5: with that. But I look at the way Spagnolo has

825
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 5: been able to scheme against top rushing attacks in the

826
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 5: last two Super Bowls just you know, like those are

827
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 5: bad Kansas City run defenses that he used, you know,

828
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 5: kind of disguises and he just kind of pulled different

829
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 5: things out of his hat, and you keep thinking he's gonna,

830
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 5: you know, run out of ways, and he keeps figuring

831
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 5: it out. And I think the real key matchup here

832
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 5: is but I like, I think Saquon will get his

833
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 5: you know, like as he has. Oh yeah, you're not

834
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 5: gonna fully stop Saquon. So but I think the key

835
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 5: for Spags is he can do a lot of things

836
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 5: pre snap that just makes Jalen Hurts think, you know,

837
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 5: a lot of different looks blitz is from all over

838
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 5: the place, switching into different fronts in the run game,

839
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:52,720
Speaker 5: and you know coverage wise that you're gonna challenge Hurts

840
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:54,839
Speaker 5: to make checks at the line of scrimmage over and

841
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 5: over and he's he's gotten better at that. But still

842
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 5: I wouldn't say he's you know up there. Yeah, So

843
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,919
Speaker 5: I think that's really the key. And on the other side,

844
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,719
Speaker 5: I think we saw that the even the Commanders moved

845
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,320
Speaker 5: the ball against the Eagles, it was just the turnovers

846
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 5: they couldn't overcome. You know, you're not gonna probably get

847
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 5: that with the Chiefs. You know, I would be surprised

848
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 5: if the Chiefs turn it over more than maybe once

849
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:18,320
Speaker 5: if that, And so you're gonna be able to just

850
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 5: kind of dink and dunk and you'll probably have to

851
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:23,439
Speaker 5: kick some field goals. But at the end of the day,

852
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 5: I trust bags and I trust my home. So rolling

853
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 5: with the Chiefs minus one and a half. And if

854
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 5: you want to take like an exact like the last

855
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 5: two Super Bowls have been exactly three point three points

856
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 5: in favor of the Chiefs too, so you can take

857
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 5: like an exact or but I wouldn't I wouldn't hesitate

858
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 5: to kind of take something in that real like Chiefs

859
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 5: by one to six or something like that too.

860
00:44:46,960 --> 00:44:52,720
Speaker 1: Coner, you hinted under a strong opinion about anything.

861
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 4: Well, I tend to I'm going to have, like, you know,

862
00:44:57,200 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 4: fifteen to twenty props, so I kind of see what

863
00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:02,680
Speaker 4: I'm going to be rooting for and what correlates and whatnot.

864
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 4: But I'll probably pass on, you know, the side, but

865
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 4: I think, yeah, the under waiting to see I'm curious,

866
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 4: do you guys think it'll go back up go down?

867
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 4: But I feel like waiting on the under would make

868
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 4: sense because you're going to get more money to come

869
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 4: in towards the end, So just trying to time what

870
00:45:20,200 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 4: the best number would be. Maybe like you just recommended

871
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 4: looking at the first half, but I feel like when

872
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 4: you're waiting for the under, you can just kind of

873
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 4: see if the market will go up once we get

874
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:31,359
Speaker 4: a little bit more public money in on the over.

875
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, Simon, I'm curious your thoughts on that.

876
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I'll just start with Chris's point, either team

877
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 3: to win by exactly three right now, I bet through

878
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 3: six five, Yes, is plus four hundred, So that's a

879
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 3: nice exact little bet. And you know, we've seen mahomes,

880
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 3: you know, other than that crazy overtime usually likes to

881
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 3: win these games by three, right, That's that's the their

882
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 3: mo They play the clock, they let it run and

883
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 3: they kick the field and they win. Or if they're

884
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 3: up by three, they'll just run the clock out. So yeah,

885
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 3: it's it's a pretty good number right now. Over at

886
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 3: Beth through six five. Yeah, my view of a chat was,

887
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 3: I'm I was with Sean. I thought I could be

888
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 3: patient on this total, and you know, I'm having a

889
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 3: good time over the weekend, and I get you a

890
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 3: message that some respected money was coming in on the

891
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 3: under and a lot of books were about to move it.

892
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 3: I had to run around try to find as many

893
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 3: fourty nine and a half as I could, and it's gone, Like,

894
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 3: I know, you just said you think it's a Betris

895
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 3: six five. I think it's just a glitch on our app.

896
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:29,359
Speaker 3: But I'm looking at their book right now it's forty nine.

897
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:31,239
Speaker 3: So oh really, Okay, if you could still find the

898
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 3: four and a half, I definitely grab it as a

899
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 3: key number. But it's pretty insane. The books took a

900
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 3: stand on this just because Sean just broke it down.

901
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,840
Speaker 3: Like all the money right now early is on the

902
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 3: over that's gonna be four times the amount comes Sunday.

903
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 3: Like the Joe public betters, they haven't really bet this

904
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 3: game yet. They're they're just you know, waiting until that

905
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 3: next paycheck come on Friday and they'll lay it into

906
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl year. So to me, if you missed

907
00:46:57,080 --> 00:47:00,160
Speaker 3: a four and a half, be patient, Like the book,

908
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:02,760
Speaker 3: they might move it through the key number of forty

909
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 3: eight and a half, but I would be shocked, just

910
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,880
Speaker 3: because they have no need to. Like the amount of

911
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 3: money pouring in right now on the over, it just

912
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:11,359
Speaker 3: has to offset this professional mind that is coming on

913
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 3: this under. So yeah, I would say, if you missed

914
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 3: the forty nine and a half, be patient. I do believe

915
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 3: we'll go back, because right now it's overwhelming the out

916
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,279
Speaker 3: of money right now on the over. So the fact

917
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:23,919
Speaker 3: they have moved that a couple forty and a halfs

918
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 3: to a couple of respective books, it is pretty shocking,

919
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:28,479
Speaker 3: all right.

920
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 1: So many more super Bowl props from Raybond, from Kerner,

921
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:38,919
Speaker 1: from Nick Giffen from Grant Need for our final two

922
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 1: pack of Super Bowl prop live shows is tomorrow, February fifth,

923
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 1: there'll be another tandem of thirty ish minute live shows

924
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube channel. Try to catch these lives.

925
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:55,000
Speaker 1: The numbers get crushed, they just do. Like I couldn't

926
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,399
Speaker 1: watch live last week. I was traveling by the time

927
00:47:57,400 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 1: I could listen to the show. Trying to get some

928
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 1: of these numbers not that easy. So listen live if

929
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,360
Speaker 1: you can, and good luck if you can't. Just like

930
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:09,240
Speaker 1: last week. Part one will be at four pm Eastern

931
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 1: with Nick and Grant, Part two with Raybaon and Kerner

932
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:18,240
Speaker 1: at six pm once again. Wednesday's Super Bowl prop shows

933
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 1: four pm Eastern, six pm Eastern Action Network YouTube page.

934
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting?

935
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,279
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936
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937
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,920
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938
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939
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940
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,799
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941
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942
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943
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944
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:58,480
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945
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946
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947
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:10,239
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948
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949
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:19,000
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950
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:22,799
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951
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:25,360
Speaker 1: I gotta say I used it used this past week.

952
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 1: Not only was it super easy, but then I did

953
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 1: get the cash back in my account. It was great.

954
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 1: I was so excited. We'd announced after the conference championship

955
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 1: games that we were doing our Super Bowl fifty nine

956
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 1: Get your prop on the board at bet three six

957
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 1: y five contest. This is a contest that I started

958
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 1: back in my ESPN days when we were doing the

959
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:56,880
Speaker 1: Behind the Bets podcast with bookmaker Bob Scooty who ran

960
00:49:56,960 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 1: all the Boyd Gaming casinos as the bookmaker at in

961
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 1: Las Vegas, and he was the regular co host for

962
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 1: the show both when I was at ESPN and in

963
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 1: the early days. Are the Favorites here with Action and

964
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 1: Scooch would open it up. We'd have listeners send in

965
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:17,359
Speaker 1: their quippiest yet bedible props and Scooch would put him

966
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 1: on the board. Bet three sixty five carries on the tradition.

967
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 1: We had so many entries. Matt Mitchell, You're going to

968
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:29,560
Speaker 1: give us some honorable mentions and the finalists stick around

969
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 1: and you'll get an interview that me and Simon did

970
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 1: with the winner of the contest, Matt Mitchell. Hot damn.

971
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 3: This is fun.

972
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 1: Thank you, Chad.

973
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:42,240
Speaker 2: I will note before I begin that's that this began

974
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 2: so long ago. I can remember listening to these episodes

975
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 2: at my normal terrible nine to five human job, and

976
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 2: I would submit every year, and mine might have been

977
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 2: the worst of all.

978
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 3: So like, I do want to.

979
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:59,360
Speaker 2: Stress that my selections here of what I liked and

980
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 2: what I submit to be through six five is not

981
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:05,359
Speaker 2: a judgment on those that did not make it. I'm

982
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 2: sure they were far better than the ones that I

983
00:51:08,120 --> 00:51:10,759
Speaker 2: did ten years ago. Okay, First of all, I want

984
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 2: to call out two that played into the hands of

985
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 2: our sponsor, Tommy John, who again is in no way

986
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,320
Speaker 2: affiliated with us, but it was good pandering, and I

987
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 2: love good pandering.

988
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:23,920
Speaker 3: The first is Sam.

989
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 2: Householder, whose prop was big sacks total sacks over hundred

990
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:33,440
Speaker 2: three and a half and our beloved super fan Chloe

991
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 2: Chris Acopolis give me that D, which was Devide Smith,

992
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:43,839
Speaker 2: DeAndre Hopkins and the Big D himself, Dallas Goddard all

993
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 2: over their receiving yards.

994
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 1: Ball tis standing.

995
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 2: Yep, So no big sacks or give me that D.

996
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 2: You're free to bethos yourself under whatever title you'd like. Okay,

997
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 2: So now here are the official honorable mention. So these

998
00:51:57,280 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 2: were ones that just missed the cut of being submitted

999
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 2: to BET three sixty five also from our friend Chloe,

1000
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:07,880
Speaker 2: Go go Goddard, Dallas Goddard, five or more catches, sixty

1001
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 2: or more yards a touchdown and Super Bowl MVP. This

1002
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:17,919
Speaker 2: one from Pierre's Eton. This is Big City Lights one

1003
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:24,640
Speaker 2: touchdown reception each for Hollywood Brown, Dallas Goddard, and Paris Campbell.

1004
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 2: A little play on the three.

1005
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:26,919
Speaker 7: Of their names.

1006
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 1: That's fantastic.

1007
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty good, pretty good.

1008
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 2: It's a shame that Paris Campbell's like non viable entity

1009
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:35,720
Speaker 2: in the in the playoffs, but it's very clever. Points

1010
00:52:35,719 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 2: for being clever. Michael Freeberg had two that play into

1011
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:43,760
Speaker 2: the storyline that it is both Saquon Barkley and Cooper

1012
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:48,280
Speaker 2: Dejane's birthday on Super Bowl Sunday. First is the Eagles

1013
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 2: birthday bash. Saquon two touchdowns and a Cooper interception. And

1014
00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:57,200
Speaker 2: this one, which I found very clever, Saquon's twenty eight

1015
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 2: saque to record twenty eight run plus receiving yards in

1016
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 2: each quarter.

1017
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:05,360
Speaker 1: Ooh that is good.

1018
00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:09,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have a Oh this was Gideon Martin. I'm

1019
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 2: sorry Gideon that you did not win, but you did

1020
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:15,240
Speaker 2: submit to that I really enjoyed. First is winning hurts,

1021
00:53:15,719 --> 00:53:20,600
Speaker 2: Losing hurts. Eagles money line hurts does not win MVP.

1022
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 2: And one of my very favorites a return from Wentz.

1023
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 2: Ye came Carson Wentz to attempt a pass.

1024
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 1: Ah, well, look that was a big one. Ray Bond

1025
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 1: and Stuck you had a long conversation about, you know,

1026
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 1: would someone other than a quarterback attempt to pass. I

1027
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:44,400
Speaker 1: feel like we should have gotten bet Maybe we can

1028
00:53:44,440 --> 00:53:46,440
Speaker 1: get bet three six five to do an alternative one

1029
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 1: just for that, because that's pretty good and that's going

1030
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:50,839
Speaker 1: to be one that I think a lot of people

1031
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 1: would be interested in.

1032
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 2: Dave Helfen submitted failed to the Chiefs. The Eagles win

1033
00:53:57,440 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 2: on a go ahead score with under thirteen seconds remaining

1034
00:54:02,360 --> 00:54:06,720
Speaker 2: in regulation. I'll special fuck you to me the person

1035
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 2: reading it. So thanks Dave, It's true. Stephen Contrerez, another

1036
00:54:13,960 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 2: great one, Obi Juan Mahomie and Kwan Solo, Sequon and

1037
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:23,440
Speaker 2: Mahomes to combine for four hundred plus passing, rushing and

1038
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 2: receiving yards.

1039
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:28,719
Speaker 1: Well, that one feels really interesting. Kerner and Raybon, can

1040
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 1: you do top of your head projections? Saquon, you both

1041
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 1: have like one between one oh five and one ten

1042
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:37,920
Speaker 1: rushing Mahomes. I don't know what you have for his

1043
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:38,760
Speaker 1: passing yard.

1044
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 3: Of general.

1045
00:54:41,160 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 5: Fifty so that's uh, that would be about three.

1046
00:54:44,040 --> 00:54:46,920
Speaker 6: Sixty men Mahomes and others Berkley.

1047
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, and then you have about thirty rushing for Mahomes.

1048
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 5: That's that's three ninety, and then another like ten to

1049
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:56,239
Speaker 5: fifteen receiving for Yeah, I guess the median would be

1050
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:58,640
Speaker 5: around four hundred ish.

1051
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:01,360
Speaker 1: That's incredible. Wonder how much research, because you know, it

1052
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:03,959
Speaker 1: was fun about these back in the day. People would

1053
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:06,840
Speaker 1: send research, they would send spreadsheets, they would send images

1054
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 1: about how they were doing it. So I wonder if

1055
00:55:08,960 --> 00:55:11,319
Speaker 1: this guy went back and did a lot of research

1056
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,360
Speaker 1: because people usually do that. It's fascinating.

1057
00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 2: Oh, I still got nine thousand page emails with people

1058
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:19,360
Speaker 2: showing me their math, and I want to be like,

1059
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:22,960
Speaker 2: I can't stress this enough. Bet three, six, five will

1060
00:55:23,040 --> 00:55:25,680
Speaker 2: do the math. You don't need to do the math there.

1061
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:27,799
Speaker 2: They're not going to take your word for it. How

1062
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:28,800
Speaker 2: this should be priced?

1063
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:31,840
Speaker 1: I love it, It's great. This one is very important.

1064
00:55:31,840 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 2: Before I get to our six finalists, I do want

1065
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:40,680
Speaker 2: to congratulate longtime listener Brian Goldberg and his son Gerald,

1066
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 2: who I think of every time I let one of

1067
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:48,480
Speaker 2: you use extended profanity. Sorry earmuffs, Gerald, but I want

1068
00:55:48,480 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 2: to thank you because your submission allowed me to go

1069
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:51,720
Speaker 2: on this quick rant.

1070
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 3: This one was.

1071
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:57,720
Speaker 2: Called pick licks lix. Will there be a pick six

1072
00:55:57,880 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 2: in Super Bowl Lix? And I just want to say

1073
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:05,880
Speaker 2: that probably the simplest example of the decline of American

1074
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 2: sports in general and are descent into academic and artistic

1075
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 2: malaise more specifically, can be found in the NFL's treatment

1076
00:56:15,440 --> 00:56:18,480
Speaker 2: of their beloved Super Bowl logo and what used to

1077
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:23,120
Speaker 2: be our annual national embrace of Roman numerals. Because we

1078
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:26,240
Speaker 2: used to have original designs for each of these Super Bowls.

1079
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:28,479
Speaker 2: Everyone on this show is old enough to remember those.

1080
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:31,960
Speaker 2: They were incredible, They were bright, and they were original.

1081
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:34,759
Speaker 2: They represented a time and a place, which is kind

1082
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 2: of what the Super Bowl is. Every season is its

1083
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 2: own thing. But then, because the NFL is a multi

1084
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:43,800
Speaker 2: billion dollar organization run with the artistic vision of a

1085
00:56:43,840 --> 00:56:47,440
Speaker 2: Connecticut law firm, it's now delivered like a decade and

1086
00:56:47,480 --> 00:56:50,520
Speaker 2: a half of the most soulless paint by number of

1087
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:54,920
Speaker 2: monstrosities of a logo. But worse of all, they've encouraged

1088
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 2: the use of normal, non Roman numerals throughout the media,

1089
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 2: which you'll never in the description of one of these podcasts,

1090
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:04,920
Speaker 2: and you know, people will complain, well, I don't know

1091
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 2: Roman numerals. That's the whole goddamn point is every year

1092
00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:11,759
Speaker 2: you get a brief lesson on Roman numerals, your dad

1093
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:14,400
Speaker 2: explains them to you, or a trusted adult or a

1094
00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 2: Roman and you'll learn a little bit about it, and

1095
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:19,000
Speaker 2: we say, isn't that kitchy and fun? And then we

1096
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 2: go back to using regular ass numbers for everything else.

1097
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:26,080
Speaker 2: So I just wanted to thank you the Goldbergs for

1098
00:57:26,640 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 2: letting me go on that free framet.

1099
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks Goldbergs. That was really Great.

1100
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:46,520
Speaker 2: Okay Now who are six finalists. These were submitted to

1101
00:57:46,560 --> 00:57:49,400
Speaker 2: Bet three sixty five and their trading team selected the winner.

1102
00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 2: Number one Damien Glick, who was one of at least

1103
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 2: forty people to submit a prop called Hurts So Good

1104
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:03,240
Speaker 2: aka the Ellen Camp. This one was Jalen Hurts two

1105
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:07,439
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty plus yards, fifty plus rushing yards, two

1106
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 2: plus passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown, Eagles money line, and

1107
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:15,200
Speaker 2: Hurts MVP. So basically, the Hurts So Good is the

1108
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:16,760
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts career game.

1109
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:22,200
Speaker 5: They so good.

1110
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:32,919
Speaker 2: The second most common title is from Pierce Eton, who

1111
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:35,600
Speaker 2: had the best version of it, which is all Barkley,

1112
00:58:36,080 --> 00:58:41,600
Speaker 2: no bite, Barkley fifteen or more rush attempts under one

1113
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 2: hundred yards rushing, no touchdowns, which I felt like a

1114
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:47,000
Speaker 2: very Sean and Chris style prop.

1115
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:51,400
Speaker 1: Yes, totally, they basically gave. They basically just gave that yep.

1116
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 2: Number three from John Reevey. Oh Say Kwan you see

1117
00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:02,680
Speaker 2: saquon rushing yards verse is the national anthem length in seconds,

1118
00:59:03,440 --> 00:59:06,120
Speaker 2: as Sakwan's total is currently at one fifteen and a

1119
00:59:06,120 --> 00:59:08,920
Speaker 2: half somewhere around there, and Nashal anthem is somewhere around

1120
00:59:08,960 --> 00:59:11,400
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty one hundred and twenty one seconds.

1121
00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:15,160
Speaker 2: So a very good prop, very cleverly named number four

1122
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:20,000
Speaker 2: Ray Hogan the three peat three for the Chiefs to

1123
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:24,840
Speaker 2: three peat by exactly three points on their third successful

1124
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:28,080
Speaker 2: field goal in the last three minutes of regulation.

1125
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:33,080
Speaker 1: Big time trying to play every time he does another one.

1126
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:35,080
Speaker 5: We thought he's made his all time best.

1127
00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:36,520
Speaker 3: And look at this.

1128
00:59:37,080 --> 00:59:44,080
Speaker 2: Unbelievable number five from someone just called Lesteif this is

1129
00:59:44,120 --> 00:59:47,720
Speaker 2: the three cheat Philly to have three or more accepted

1130
00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 2: penalties than the Kansas City Chiefs.

1131
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:54,800
Speaker 1: Ah, I get it, I get it the favoritism.

1132
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:58,680
Speaker 2: Indeed, indeed, all right, our last one, which will be

1133
00:59:58,720 --> 01:00:02,200
Speaker 2: revealed in full in the interview you're about to hear

1134
01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:08,080
Speaker 2: between Chad and the winner, Jason Side. I will tease,

1135
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:11,560
Speaker 2: but we'll tell you that as a reminder to find

1136
01:00:11,680 --> 01:00:14,920
Speaker 2: this winning submission and bet it yourself. Just go to

1137
01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:19,600
Speaker 2: bet three sixty five and look under super Bowl fifty specials.

1138
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 2: You will find this bet and loads more just like

1139
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:28,120
Speaker 2: it again bet three sixty five under super Bowl fifty specials.

1140
01:00:28,680 --> 01:00:29,640
Speaker 2: And now I'll turn it to you.

1141
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 3: Chad.

1142
01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:35,040
Speaker 1: It is time to reveal the winner of our Get

1143
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:38,280
Speaker 1: your prop up on Bet three sixty five's Super Bowl

1144
01:00:38,400 --> 01:00:41,040
Speaker 1: Big Board contest. I feel like this prop. I don't

1145
01:00:41,080 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 1: want to reveal it yet, but I know this prop

1146
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 1: and its name is something that you can appreciate.

1147
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:49,120
Speaker 3: I'm hoping it's it's Egles related.

1148
01:00:49,160 --> 01:00:52,040
Speaker 1: Then it will be Eagles related.

1149
01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 3: Let's bring in.

1150
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:55,960
Speaker 1: Let's bring in the winner of the prop contest. His

1151
01:00:56,080 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 1: name is Jason Society from Claremont Lord.

1152
01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:02,520
Speaker 7: He is a.

1153
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:09,960
Speaker 1: Control systems guru at Universal Studios in Orlando. Jason, congrats,

1154
01:01:10,360 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 1: welcome to the show, brother.

1155
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:13,840
Speaker 7: Big guys, thank you. I'm happy to be here.

1156
01:01:14,240 --> 01:01:17,120
Speaker 1: Where does this honor rank? Do you think is sort

1157
01:01:17,120 --> 01:01:20,960
Speaker 1: of your history of awards and accomplishments.

1158
01:01:21,480 --> 01:01:24,280
Speaker 8: Let's see, besides the birth of my daughter, in marrying

1159
01:01:24,360 --> 01:01:26,760
Speaker 8: my wife is right behind that at number three.

1160
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:30,160
Speaker 1: Those are barely two things that might qualify as being

1161
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:33,080
Speaker 1: better than this. I do want you to reveal the

1162
01:01:33,200 --> 01:01:35,920
Speaker 1: name of the prop and tell people what it is,

1163
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:37,280
Speaker 1: and then I want to get into how you thought

1164
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:38,640
Speaker 1: of it and all that kind of good stuff. But

1165
01:01:38,880 --> 01:01:41,200
Speaker 1: let's reveal the name of the prop that people can

1166
01:01:41,240 --> 01:01:43,360
Speaker 1: go bet at Bet three sixty five right now.

1167
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:48,880
Speaker 8: Yeah, So the prop name is I'm always Runny in Philadelphia.

1168
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:52,160
Speaker 8: And then the prop is for the Eagles that have

1169
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:53,920
Speaker 8: over two hundred and eighty.

1170
01:01:53,760 --> 01:01:56,520
Speaker 1: Rushing yards, which would be a Super Bowl record, right

1171
01:01:56,600 --> 01:01:58,840
Speaker 1: it will be a super record record. And right now

1172
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 1: with bet three sixty five you can get that. I

1173
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:03,800
Speaker 1: think it's a plus sixteen hundred. You can get that

1174
01:02:04,160 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five. Simon and always Sonny prop.

1175
01:02:08,360 --> 01:02:11,360
Speaker 1: That might be the most apt prop we've ever had

1176
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:12,680
Speaker 1: for this show.

1177
01:02:13,400 --> 01:02:16,440
Speaker 5: If life pushes you down, you gotta push back.

1178
01:02:16,760 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 3: If you're dump a bunch of lemons, you gotta take

1179
01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:22,920
Speaker 3: those limits and stuff them down somebody's throat until I

1180
01:02:23,040 --> 01:02:26,240
Speaker 3: see yell them, especially where that's an amazing record. I

1181
01:02:26,240 --> 01:02:28,080
Speaker 3: had no idea it was that many rushing yards. So

1182
01:02:28,400 --> 01:02:30,840
Speaker 3: I definitely love to play sixteen to one, come one,

1183
01:02:30,880 --> 01:02:32,960
Speaker 3: give us twenty to one. Bet better odds to you,

1184
01:02:33,040 --> 01:02:33,680
Speaker 3: But yeah.

1185
01:02:33,640 --> 01:02:33,960
Speaker 5: I can't.

1186
01:02:34,760 --> 01:02:37,000
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny. We felt like that was pretty

1187
01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:40,280
Speaker 1: good given the circumstances. Jason, how did you think of

1188
01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 1: the prop?

1189
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:44,160
Speaker 8: Well, so, a good prop really needs three things, right,

1190
01:02:44,200 --> 01:02:47,360
Speaker 8: You need to catch your name, You need something you

1191
01:02:47,440 --> 01:02:50,160
Speaker 8: can't really bet it's like a normal bet. And a

1192
01:02:50,200 --> 01:02:51,720
Speaker 8: third thing, you need to have something that's you know,

1193
01:02:52,280 --> 01:02:55,120
Speaker 8: it's probably gonna have plus odds because, as you both say,

1194
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 8: the book is not your friend.

1195
01:02:57,360 --> 01:03:00,120
Speaker 3: They are here that issue. I'm definitely gonna betting this

1196
01:03:00,160 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 3: because that's the best way for the Eagles to win

1197
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:04,080
Speaker 3: right now is for Saque to be running. So I'll

1198
01:03:04,080 --> 01:03:06,080
Speaker 3: be happily going to be making this bet chat, especially

1199
01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:07,080
Speaker 3: at those odds.

1200
01:03:07,320 --> 01:03:09,040
Speaker 1: As you and I have both said for the past

1201
01:03:09,080 --> 01:03:12,240
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, we're on the Chiefs here. So the

1202
01:03:12,280 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 1: best way to invest in the Eagles at a high

1203
01:03:16,080 --> 01:03:22,080
Speaker 1: return with relatively low investment is a bet like this

1204
01:03:22,240 --> 01:03:26,760
Speaker 1: because it does mean the Eagles are dominating the game. Jason,

1205
01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:28,919
Speaker 1: do you have a betting interest in the game?

1206
01:03:29,760 --> 01:03:31,640
Speaker 8: Have a Super Bowl ticket on the Eagles, and so

1207
01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:33,800
Speaker 8: I will be rooting for the Eagles. One thing with this,

1208
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:36,800
Speaker 8: so I was looking at the Eagles box scores this year.

1209
01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:40,080
Speaker 8: They've hit this number twice, first time in the regular

1210
01:03:40,160 --> 01:03:42,800
Speaker 8: season against the Rams, and then they hit it again

1211
01:03:42,840 --> 01:03:44,280
Speaker 8: in the playoffs against the Rams.

1212
01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:47,480
Speaker 7: I'm hoping the Chiefs also can't stop sake one.

1213
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:50,040
Speaker 1: How long you've been betting, I've been playing.

1214
01:03:49,760 --> 01:03:53,000
Speaker 8: Poker for a long long time, and so you know

1215
01:03:53,200 --> 01:03:57,160
Speaker 8: a sports gambling was right right along with that.

1216
01:03:57,360 --> 01:04:00,360
Speaker 7: So you know, since I was a kid, probably awesome.

1217
01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 1: We'll listen. We're thrilled you submitted it. There were great entries.

1218
01:04:04,600 --> 01:04:08,640
Speaker 1: This was the runaway hit Matt Mitchell. You know he's

1219
01:04:08,680 --> 01:04:10,560
Speaker 1: the arbiter of all these things and it takes a

1220
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:13,880
Speaker 1: lot to mate Mac Mitchell. Laugh a little bit and

1221
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:14,480
Speaker 1: be tickled.

1222
01:04:14,880 --> 01:04:16,680
Speaker 3: Do you think it would kill you to say good

1223
01:04:16,760 --> 01:04:17,320
Speaker 3: job Matt?

1224
01:04:17,720 --> 01:04:22,840
Speaker 1: So Jason Siety, Claremont, Florida, Always running in Philadelphia plus

1225
01:04:22,880 --> 01:04:26,520
Speaker 1: sixteen hundred. I'm Bet three sixty five right now. Thanks

1226
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:29,040
Speaker 1: for listening to the Favorites. Thanks for playing the contest.

1227
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:31,960
Speaker 1: I hope this cash is I hope you make bank

1228
01:04:32,400 --> 01:04:33,440
Speaker 1: on Super Bowl Sunday.

1229
01:04:34,160 --> 01:04:35,560
Speaker 7: Well, thank you, guys. I appreciate it.

1230
01:04:36,880 --> 01:04:39,560
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet

1231
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:42,120
Speaker 1: three six y five and now new Bet three sixty five.

1232
01:04:42,120 --> 01:04:44,320
Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

1233
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:46,680
Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code,

1234
01:04:46,720 --> 01:04:49,040
Speaker 1: Favorites deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars

1235
01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:51,640
Speaker 1: to get one hundred and fiftyen bonus bets. Those bonus

1236
01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:54,040
Speaker 1: bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

1237
01:04:54,080 --> 01:04:56,520
Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At bet

1238
01:04:56,520 --> 01:04:58,520
Speaker 1: three six five. Must be twenty one or older in

1239
01:04:58,560 --> 01:05:04,280
Speaker 1: President Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

1240
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:07,160
Speaker 1: or eighteen or older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

1241
01:05:07,240 --> 01:05:09,560
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.

1242
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:14,640
Speaker 1: Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon or I will return with

1243
01:05:14,680 --> 01:05:16,520
Speaker 1: our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network

1244
01:05:16,520 --> 01:05:19,640
Speaker 1: YouTube page eleven am Eastern Thursday to talk our Super

1245
01:05:19,640 --> 01:05:23,920
Speaker 1: Bowl best bets with Brandon Anderson. Download us from Spotify,

1246
01:05:23,960 --> 01:05:26,800
Speaker 1: Apple Pods, wherever you get your POD's rate, review, subscribe,

1247
01:05:26,880 --> 01:05:29,720
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is

1248
01:05:29,760 --> 01:05:42,760
Speaker 1: a gift until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds

1249
01:05:42,800 --> 01:05:44,840
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly.

1250
01:05:45,280 --> 01:05:48,120
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1251
01:05:48,400 --> 01:05:51,000
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1252
01:05:51,080 --> 01:05:51,880
Speaker 2: hundred gambler