Speaker 1: My Italian mother. We went to my closest My close
Speaker 1: friend in college is Matthias q and Uka, who was
Speaker 1: a defensive end for the New York Giants. We went
Speaker 1: to a game where he played in Detroit and he
Speaker 1: got hurt. As we were walking out, she went in
Speaker 1: the bathroom, came back out, threw her shirt away. Luckily
Speaker 1: she was wearing a jacket over it. But she's like,
Speaker 1: it's all my fault, it's the shirt, and we're like
Speaker 1: it so my mom caused an injury.
Speaker 2: Stand Yeah, I would never think anything like that. Hi.
Speaker 1: I'm Cynthia Freeland and I am an expert dog mom.
Speaker 2: Hello friends, and welcome back to the Broadway smash hit
Speaker 2: Off the Beat. I am your host, Brian Baumgartner, And
Speaker 2: of course this isn't a Broadway hit at all, it's
Speaker 2: a podcast. Thank you all for listening today. It's well,
Speaker 2: it's the second week of February, and does anybody know
Speaker 2: what that means? Raise your hands please, I can't see them.
Speaker 2: But this Sunday is America's newest national holiday. That's right,
Speaker 2: it's Super Bowl Sunday. I'm excited. I hope at least
Speaker 2: some of you are as well. Whether you're watching for
Speaker 2: the game, or for the commercials, or for Usher the
Speaker 2: halftime performer. Super Bowl Sunday is a day that well,
Speaker 2: we all get to sit around and eat bad food
Speaker 2: and consume various beverages. Super Bowl fifty eight the San
Speaker 2: Francisco forty nine Ers versus the Kansas City Chiefs. As
Speaker 2: many of you know, I actually do not have a
Speaker 2: specific dog in this fight, but I do expect it
Speaker 2: to be a very very good game.
Speaker 3: Two of the bests.
Speaker 2: This year, no one can argue that, and two of
Speaker 2: the best franchises in football squaring off in this game.
Speaker 2: For the Chiefs, their last Super Bowl was well it
Speaker 2: was last year, so they're looking to go back to
Speaker 2: back for the first time since the Patriots won Super
Speaker 2: Bowls thirty eight and thirty nine back in four and five. Friends,
Speaker 2: nearly twenty years ago. I couldn't believe that when I
Speaker 2: looked it up. The Niners, speaking of shocking to me
Speaker 2: at least, I can't believe they have not won the
Speaker 2: Super Bowl for almost thirty years now.
Speaker 3: Gosh, that makes me feel so old. It felt like
Speaker 3: they were winning every super Bowl for so long.
Speaker 2: Their last super Bowl victory super Bowl twenty nine in Miami,
Speaker 2: where Steve Young was still the quarterback. Although the Niners
Speaker 2: have not won in twenty nine years, these two teams
Speaker 2: met a mirror four years ago Super Bowl fifty four.
Speaker 2: Many many of the of the people are that said,
Speaker 2: the coaches are the same, Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid.
Speaker 2: Many of the players are the same. Patrick mahomes Otto
Speaker 2: State Farm joke, Travis Kelsey. Has Travis Kelsey been in
Speaker 2: the news this year at all?
Speaker 3: I don't know. I haven't heard.
Speaker 2: Much from Travis since I saw him at the American
Speaker 2: Century Championship last year. It's like he's hasn't been in
Speaker 2: the news that much. Deebo, Samuel, George Kittle, many, many more.
Speaker 2: There's two differences though for the Niners, of course, Christian
Speaker 2: McCaffrey and mister no longer irrelevant Rock Purdy. Is that
Speaker 2: going to be enough against?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 2: Against Probably It's the biggest change for the Chiefs their defense.
Speaker 2: I looked it up, depending on which metrics and numbers
Speaker 2: or whatever you use, but most people say the number
Speaker 2: two total defense in the league this year. I couldn't
Speaker 2: find anyone who ranked them outside of the top five.
Speaker 2: A very very differently constructed team this year for the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: though of course they still have Patrick Mahomes. Now, speaking
Speaker 2: of numbers, we have the amazing Cynthia Freeland on the
Speaker 2: Podcast today special visit for Super Bowl Week. She is,
Speaker 2: as many of you know, the numbers expert over at
Speaker 2: the NFL Network, And in just a few minutes I'm
Speaker 2: going to have her on to get her valuable insight
Speaker 2: on the big game and see if I can get
Speaker 2: any of you.
Speaker 3: With a shall we say, financial interest.
Speaker 2: In the game, well, maybe get you a little bit
Speaker 2: of help. Cynthia is going to be joining us in
Speaker 2: a few minutes, but first I wanted to take a
Speaker 2: little pause here and talk about my year so far.
Speaker 2: You know, I love talking to all my great guests here,
Speaker 2: and I feel like that's what this program is all about.
Speaker 2: I never wanted to be about me, but I do
Speaker 2: get questions on social media and when I run into
Speaker 2: people about what it is that I'm doing. They'll see
Speaker 2: a picture on social media. Why are you in Orlando?
Speaker 3: What do you do? Are you a golfer?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 3: Like, what are you doing?
Speaker 2: And so I want to take a few minutes and
Speaker 2: just talk about what I've been doing and specifically an
Speaker 2: event i'll talk about in a minute that was very,
Speaker 2: very meaningful for me. I want to start back a
Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago. I was in or Land for Orlando.
Speaker 2: I always whenever I say now Orlando, I think of
Speaker 2: the Book of Mormon song Orlando. The Hilton Grant Vacations
Speaker 2: Tournament of Champions. They're in Orlando, Florida. You know, my
Speaker 2: mom was born in Orlando, and my grandparents lived there
Speaker 2: there most of their lives, so I spend a lot
Speaker 2: of time in the Orlando area. It's always great to
Speaker 2: go back. But the Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions is, well,
Speaker 2: it's not let's just say this, it's not relaxing, Okay.
Speaker 2: It is five days of golf. It is a professional
Speaker 2: golf tournament. Celebrities are playing in a professional golf tournament
Speaker 2: alongside the LPGA players. Any player who has won a
Speaker 2: tournament over the last three year now, winning any golf
Speaker 2: tournament is not easy. Winning a professional golf tournament on
Speaker 2: the LPGA Tour is certainly no small feet. So we
Speaker 2: played along them. I played five days.
Speaker 3: In a row.
Speaker 2: I walked for four of them, and well, let's just
Speaker 2: say it was It started out well for me. Okay,
Speaker 2: probably my best tournament round, at least in a long
Speaker 2: long time. I had a few birdies. Round one I
Speaker 2: played really well. My best score certainly at the Orlando
Speaker 2: tournament there at Lake Nona Golf Club, And on eighteen
Speaker 2: I made birdie on the first day. And I've told
Speaker 2: a few people since I walked into the clubhouse. I
Speaker 2: was playing at the end of the day and I
Speaker 2: walked in the clubhouse and most of the other players
Speaker 2: were assembled there having lunch, and all the televisions were on,
Speaker 2: and I birdied eighteen and I walked in the clubhouse,
Speaker 2: and I said, it was like I had just had
Speaker 2: a movie premiere.
Speaker 3: That's how I felt. I walked into the room and people.
Speaker 2: Were clapping and yelling, and because everyone had just seen
Speaker 2: on national television my let's call it a twenty two.
Speaker 3: Foot birdie up the hill, drifting right.
Speaker 2: Slightly into the hole and uh, and everyone was in
Speaker 2: there watching obviously when I walked in not too much later,
Speaker 2: maybe one of the best, the best sports feelings that
Speaker 2: I've ever had. Now we then played Round two didn't
Speaker 2: go quite as well. Round three kind of the same
Speaker 2: as Round two. By Round four, I wanted to be
Speaker 2: anywhere else on the planet. Okay, it was it was
Speaker 2: the struggle. It was a struggle buss as we call
Speaker 2: it in the business. Not easy, it was. It was rainy,
Speaker 2: it was windy, it was cold. I wasn't happy. But
Speaker 2: you know, I'm out there on the course and I'm
Speaker 2: thinking to myself, why do I do this to myself?
Speaker 2: Why am I out? Why I'm not This is not
Speaker 2: my chosen profession. Why am I golfing on television in
Speaker 2: front of people walking this course eight plus miles by
Speaker 2: the way, in the rain and wet and cold?
Speaker 3: Why am I doing? Why am I here?
Speaker 2: And in the weeks, a couple of weeks since I left,
Speaker 2: I realized why I did it. I ran into Charlie Reimer,
Speaker 2: professional golfer, Golf Channel analyst and was talking to him
Speaker 2: about it and saying that, like, why am I doing
Speaker 2: this to myself?
Speaker 3: And he says, well, people.
Speaker 2: Don't realize who just think of golf as being in
Speaker 2: a golf cart, having beverages, hitting the ball every few minutes,
Speaker 2: and they like it's not really a sport. He's like,
Speaker 2: it's a very different thing where you're walking in these
Speaker 2: tough conditions and rain and wind and cold and the
Speaker 2: strain that it puts on your body. Have doing that
Speaker 2: same repetitive motion for four straight five straight days, but
Speaker 2: you know, walking for and some people playing you know,
Speaker 2: six or seven days in a row. It is the
Speaker 2: challenge for me, the physical challenge, the mental challenge because
Speaker 2: mentally it's very difficult as well to stay focused for
Speaker 2: so long.
Speaker 3: I love it. I love doing it gives me so
Speaker 3: much joy.
Speaker 2: Even in the moment sometimes when I think I don't
Speaker 2: want to be here anymore, it gives me a tremendous
Speaker 2: amount of joy. So I appreciate Hilton Grand Vacations inviting
Speaker 2: me out, and that's another reason I'm there. By the way,
Speaker 2: is they put on a hell of an event there
Speaker 2: at Lake Nona Golf Club. The people at Lake Nona
Speaker 2: do a great job. This is a Chancechampionship level course,
Speaker 2: clearly because we're playing the Tournament of Champions there, but
Speaker 2: also it's so incredible for me to get to play
Speaker 2: with the pros there. Lydia Coe, who I've gotten to
Speaker 2: know over the last several years, both at PXG when
Speaker 2: she was at PXG and then also here at the
Speaker 2: Tournament of Champions.
Speaker 3: She was the winner.
Speaker 2: Fourteen under for the week in incredibly difficult conditions this year.
Speaker 2: I was so happy and proud of her.
Speaker 3: But I got to play with some of them.
Speaker 2: The first day I am paired in a professional golf
Speaker 2: event with the number one player in the world, Lilya
Speaker 2: Fu unbelievable. I also got to play with Leona Maguire,
Speaker 2: Paulo Rito, Jennifer cup Cho. I had a great, great
Speaker 2: time and watching them play golf, seeing their distance control
Speaker 2: and their accuracy off the tee is.
Speaker 3: Really fun.
Speaker 2: I also want to congratulate the Flying Squirrel Jeff McNeil
Speaker 2: baseball player for the New York Mets, two time All Star,
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two All Star, starting second basement. He won
Speaker 2: the batting title that year, Silver Slugger Award. Apparently he's
Speaker 2: one hell of a golfer. We use the old Stableford
Speaker 2: format in the Celebrity Division, which means basically, you can't
Speaker 2: get any worse.
Speaker 3: Than double bogie. I mean, let's just sum it.
Speaker 2: Up that way so we get positive numbers there. One
Speaker 2: thirty eight. He finished two ahead of playing playing in
Speaker 2: the Celebrity Division. Oh just LPGA legend and Hall of
Speaker 2: famer an akasaurans Dam. Yeah, she finished two behind and
Speaker 2: she lives on the course. Jeff obviously was playing well.
Speaker 2: He was playing some hell of a golf that week,
Speaker 2: so congratulations to him. I just wanted to take a
Speaker 2: moment to thank everybody there in Orlando for a great week.
Speaker 2: If you have never gone out to an LPGA event, well,
Speaker 2: in the words of Nike, just do it all right.
Speaker 2: Suffice it to say, when I finished there on that cold, wet,
Speaker 2: windy Sunday, I did not want to play golf at
Speaker 2: all anymore, except I had to, because shortly after that
Speaker 2: I went to I traveled across the other pond, the
Speaker 2: Pacific Ocean, to the Big Island of Hawaii. I went
Speaker 2: to the ACE Shootout there in Hawaii, and I wanted
Speaker 2: to take a couple moments here and tell you about
Speaker 2: the A Shootout. I was moved so much on this
Speaker 2: latest trip. I'm still probably suffering from jet lag, so
Speaker 2: I'm a little jittery, still feel a little emotional about it.
Speaker 2: But I'm going to try as best I can to
Speaker 2: tell you a little bit about the A shootout. ACE
Speaker 2: Hardware for twenty seven years they have been putting on
Speaker 2: this event, the A Shootout, ACE Hardware and their their
Speaker 2: vendor partners, Craftsmen, is one shark bite many of them.
Speaker 2: They have raised forty million dollars for Children's Miracle Network hospitals.
Speaker 2: Just through the A Shootout, we had the opportunity to
Speaker 2: meet niall of the one of their heroes, one of
Speaker 2: the kids who has been served by one of the
Speaker 2: hospitals in the Children's Miracle Network. He is beautiful, beautiful
Speaker 2: child with an amazing spirit, perseverance. He recently received cocular
Speaker 2: implants and is starting now to hear for the first time.
Speaker 3: In his life.
Speaker 2: And the opportunity, the gift that I had by going
Speaker 2: to this event and meeting Nile and many other patients
Speaker 2: who are served, was well, it was unbelievable. It was
Speaker 2: an unbelievable experience for me and made me feel so
Speaker 2: lucky to be present there. As I said, forty million
Speaker 2: dollars this year. This year alone, for this week during
Speaker 2: the A Shootout, they raised over three point six million
Speaker 2: dollars for Children's Miracle Network hospitals.
Speaker 3: Thankfully, I didn't have to walk.
Speaker 2: For four days in a row, and I until we
Speaker 2: started the skills competition, I did not pick up a
Speaker 2: golf club in between Orlando and that. People are like,
Speaker 2: are you going to play a practice round? Are you
Speaker 2: going to to the range? I was like, look, I've
Speaker 2: hit enough balls, because I hit more than most in Orlando.
Speaker 2: I either am going to have it or I'm not.
Speaker 2: And no amount of pounding balls on the range is
Speaker 2: going to help me. But thankfully it's a it's a
Speaker 2: skills challenge type format. Other celebrities who were lucky enough
Speaker 2: to be there Greg Maddox, Hall of Fame pitcher Darren
Speaker 2: Williams and JJ Burrea from the National Basketball Association NFL
Speaker 2: legends and Super Bowl champions like Tim Brown and Santonio Holmes,
Speaker 2: who I had not met before. Santonio Holmes is credited
Speaker 2: with some might say the greatest catch in Super Bowl
Speaker 2: history super Bowl forty three. He was named the MVP,
Speaker 2: and since I have since I met him, I've been
Speaker 2: back watched on YouTube replay is still there forty seconds
Speaker 2: left of the game. Ben Roethlisberger throws the ball into
Speaker 2: the corner of the end zone, Santonio Holmes catches it
Speaker 2: to help them win the game. He was named Super
Speaker 2: Bowl MVP and also, more significantly than all of that
Speaker 2: that was my first Super Bowl. For Super Bowl, I
Speaker 2: was at the game and I saw it happen live
Speaker 2: and in person, I thought, this is the greatest play
Speaker 2: I've ever seen live when I saw it, especially with
Speaker 2: so much on the line. But the reason I was
Speaker 2: at that game was because immediately following that catch, now
Speaker 2: there's an awards ceremony and so forth. So you know,
Speaker 2: maybe forty five minutes later on NBC The Office what
Speaker 2: aired after the Super Bowl, the episode Stress Relief with
Speaker 2: the largest audience obviously airing after the Super Bowl in
Speaker 2: the history of the show. And that's why I was
Speaker 2: there at the game. So that moment holds a special
Speaker 2: significance for me. But also just that that whole day,
Speaker 2: that whole experience of being there in Tampa is it's
Speaker 2: a cool It's a cool thing to me. And so
Speaker 2: to be able to one go to this event and
Speaker 2: two have Santonio Holmes there, and three be able to
Speaker 2: tell him that story that he is now whether you
Speaker 2: know he knew it not, he didn't know it before
Speaker 2: that that that evening when I told him, But he's
Speaker 2: he is a part of my history, my personal history,
Speaker 2: and I think that's what's so cool about sports. There's
Speaker 2: so many people were affected one way or the other
Speaker 2: by that moment, some because they were rooting for a
Speaker 2: specific team, but some sometimes other things that were involved.
Speaker 2: For me, the office airing after that game was was
Speaker 2: truly special. So to be able to tell him that story,
Speaker 2: which he I don't know, he at least seemed interested
Speaker 2: and that was that was fun. Also have to mention
Speaker 2: Michael Waltrip was there. Every event is made better with
Speaker 2: Michael Waltrip being there. Of course Fox Sports, NASCAR contributor
Speaker 2: and two time Daytona five hundred champion Michael Waltrip and
Speaker 2: many many others. By the way, it's a it's a
Speaker 2: it's just a special special event benefiting many of the
Speaker 2: children's hospitals through CMN A hospital very near and dear
Speaker 2: to my heart, Rady's Children's Hospital in San Diego. They
Speaker 2: were able to benefit because of my participation in the event.
Speaker 2: I named them as my benefactor for any money that
Speaker 2: I may or may not have won, But that's why
Speaker 2: I participated. That's why I drug myself from Orlando to
Speaker 2: Hawaii to participate in that event. Now, there's many ways
Speaker 2: for the hospitals to win by winning or placing in
Speaker 2: various challenges, and also Milwaukee Tools sponsored a fan favorite
Speaker 2: competition as well. How did I do? How much was
Speaker 2: I able to win or not win for Radi's Children's Hospital.
Speaker 2: Well you got to tune in to find that out
Speaker 2: April twenty second on the Golf Channel, because when I
Speaker 2: say Golf Channel, I'm sure you all think of me
Speaker 2: because at least, well at least at the beginning of
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, I've been on the Golf Channel about
Speaker 2: as much as anybody. Hopefully that's going to subside soon
Speaker 2: and we'll get back to some other, some other business
Speaker 2: at hand. But yeah, I just wanted to take a
Speaker 2: couple of minutes. You know, we I love talking to
Speaker 2: my guests, but I do get questions at times. What
Speaker 2: is what you posted? Why are you in Hawaii? What
Speaker 2: are you doing traveling? Or why are you on another airplane? Well,
Speaker 2: sometimes it's for fun, sometimes it's for competition, and sometimes
Speaker 2: well it's for other people who need need some help.
Speaker 2: So that has been my time. And speaking of travel, yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm on the road again this week, back to football.
Speaker 2: I will be departing in mirror hours to Viva Las
Speaker 2: Vegas for Super Bowl fifty eight. I've got some other
Speaker 2: events happening there, but this week I could not let
Speaker 2: this week go by without talking to Cynthia Freeland. Cynthia
Speaker 2: born in Michigan, A rabbit, some might say rabbit, Detroit
Speaker 2: Lions fan.
Speaker 3: I know she had.
Speaker 2: She had her heart broken by the Niners last week,
Speaker 2: and you know a little bit of me died last
Speaker 2: week too with that game. I was really rooting for
Speaker 2: Detroit and the Lions. But I think now with Dan
Speaker 2: Campbell there in Detroit, the Lions are going to be
Speaker 2: relevant here and have a shot for years to come,
Speaker 2: although green Bay looking pretty good as well. Cynthia went
Speaker 2: to Boston College. She got a biology degree. Then she
Speaker 2: went to Northwestern. She got a Master of Business Administration
Speaker 2: degree in finance entrepreneurship, which I find the most difficult
Speaker 2: word in the English language to say, by the way.
Speaker 3: Entrepreneurship and innovation.
Speaker 2: Also a Master of Science degree on predictive analysis from
Speaker 2: said Northwestern University. Let's face it, Cynthia does the numbers
Speaker 2: way better than I do, or ever did. Since twenty sixteen,
Speaker 2: she's been at the NFL Network, and today she's going
Speaker 2: to tell us who's going to win Super Bowl fifty eight.
Speaker 2: Hi said the uh, how are you? I'm so good?
Speaker 2: How are you?
Speaker 1: I'm good, I'm soaked. The dog has had me outside
Speaker 1: like fifteen times today, so.
Speaker 3: A little sick dog. I understand.
Speaker 1: He decided that he was going to drink all of
Speaker 1: the water out of the puddle, and that gave him
Speaker 1: not a very happy.
Speaker 2: So this is people talk about the storm of the
Speaker 2: century here in southern California, it has even more repercussions.
Speaker 3: For you, this is the.
Speaker 1: Grossest storm I've ever lived through. Let me just like
Speaker 1: it's a literal poop storm for me. Oh okay, yeah.
Speaker 2: Well you'll be uh, you'll be in Vegas soon and
Speaker 2: somebody else will be dealing with that.
Speaker 3: Are you packed? Are you ready to go? O?
Speaker 1: I'm not even close. I gotta figure I mean, I'm
Speaker 1: kind of a last minute backer, though, so I'll figured
Speaker 1: it out. I'll figure it out.
Speaker 2: Uh. Well, first off, my condolences on the Lions last week.
Speaker 2: Have you recovered yet?
Speaker 1: You know it was pretty quick after that. I figured
Speaker 1: out like to be more happy that they exceeded expectations
Speaker 1: than being sad about how it ended. It just sucks
Speaker 1: when you have such a big lead and then the
Speaker 1: other team comes back and with but whatever. I mean,
Speaker 1: they're a little earlier in terms of their sort of
Speaker 1: rebuild and the expectations I had, so on some level,
Speaker 1: I got a chance to go to one of the
Speaker 1: playoff games at home. I was in Detroit. I got
Speaker 1: a chance to buy the entire bar round of drinks,
Speaker 1: which was very inexpensive round of drinks that way, but
Speaker 1: it was so much fun. I've never done that before.
Speaker 1: It be like the whole bars on me.
Speaker 3: Oh my god, that's awesome.
Speaker 1: It was, like I said, in Detroit, that's far more reasonable.
Speaker 2: Well, right, yeah, buying a round of drinks in uh
Speaker 2: in in Detroit, that's well, it would not be the
Speaker 2: same as in the on the coast there in Los Angeles.
Speaker 3: I got to ask.
Speaker 2: You, you know, Dan Campbell, he's not it's not riverboat Ron,
Speaker 2: it's uh gambling Dan.
Speaker 1: Maybe we need a literation. Yeah, what do you what?
Speaker 2: What what do you what do you think about about
Speaker 2: about about his style and do you think, uh, do
Speaker 2: you think it hurt toward the end of the game
Speaker 2: as a numbers person.
Speaker 1: Look, I think in terms of his style, I think
Speaker 1: he's one of, if not the most authentic coach that
Speaker 1: we have. I mean, I don't think there's any piece
Speaker 1: of him that doesn't act like from the moment he
Speaker 1: wakes up till the moment he goes to bed, he
Speaker 1: is biting kneecaps like I am sure of that. The
Speaker 1: players that I've spoken to, no, this is actually like
Speaker 1: he's all emotion all the time. So I think that
Speaker 1: authenticity like bleeds through. And I think the players really
Speaker 1: responded to that. And I also think that it wasn't
Speaker 1: so much necessarily like analytics calls or numbers calls. It
Speaker 1: was more about that was their identity. I mean the
Speaker 1: number of plays. You know, you never want to like
Speaker 1: tie them down, like how many plays in the playbook
Speaker 1: are actually fourth down plays. But you know, I asked
Speaker 1: for a range, and that range that he told me
Speaker 1: was higher than most coaches have. So the reality is
Speaker 1: is they just it wasn't necessarily like because they thought
Speaker 1: the probabilities were in their favor. It was more because
Speaker 1: they that's who they were. And I'm not mad about
Speaker 1: any of those calls in the in the SF game.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think he called the like Jamior
Speaker 1: Gibbs fumble play just just a you know something called that.
Speaker 1: Probably also don't think he called the like you know,
Speaker 1: Brandon I catch a ball that bounced off the defender's head.
Speaker 1: But you know, also probably not. I don't think Paul
Speaker 1: Shanahan called that, although if he could, that'd be pretty cool.
Speaker 1: But like, so I'm not so mad about it that.
Speaker 1: It's more some of the things I think time management
Speaker 1: wise at the end of the game were a little
Speaker 1: bit more problematic from the standpoint of runs or passes
Speaker 1: on certain downs. That's actually it's a little ironic because
Speaker 1: that's like how Kyle Shanahan maybe exited Atlanta. But you know,
Speaker 1: it's an interesting it was just but again that's it's
Speaker 1: more identity than analytics. So you can't really be mad
Speaker 1: at it because they were outmatched. I mean, they were
Speaker 1: seven and a half I think seven and at least
Speaker 1: seven or seven and a half point underdogs. It wasn't
Speaker 1: like their fourteen point favorites and blew this massive lead,
Speaker 1: right so right, you know.
Speaker 2: I mean spoiler alert, they won me a little bit
Speaker 2: of money. So I didn't hate that. I just more
Speaker 2: was uh, I was I was rooting for.
Speaker 1: Them to win, but just a better story. I mean
Speaker 1: I like, you know, I'm biased one hundred percent and
Speaker 1: I like the Niners. It's like, no anti Niner sentiment.
Speaker 1: It's just more like I've seen the Super Bowl. I
Speaker 1: was there in Miami, you know.
Speaker 2: Like words, but yeah, yeah, well I wish I could
Speaker 2: say I wasn't anti Niners.
Speaker 3: But I am.
Speaker 2: I'm an unbiased journalist here just trying to figure out
Speaker 2: what's going to happen in this game. Now, I want
Speaker 2: to talk a little bit about you first, because I
Speaker 2: think your your story is fascinating. As I just told
Speaker 2: the listeners, you have eighty seven degrees in a variety
Speaker 2: in a variety of topics, not including sports, significantly a
Speaker 2: Master of Science degree in predictive analysis from Northwestern. Now,
Speaker 2: you were a financial advisor. How did you start to
Speaker 2: going to work for the NFL.
Speaker 1: In business school? So when I started business school with
Speaker 1: my finance background, I was, you know, like I'm banking
Speaker 1: the whole thing before business school, pretty normal stuff. I
Speaker 1: old email the then CFO of the NFL. His name
Speaker 1: is Anthony Noto. He's now the CEO of SOFI after
Speaker 1: going through like Goldman, NFL, Goldman, Twitter, whatever, Like he's
Speaker 1: he's the freaking man, and he was a linebacker at
Speaker 1: Army if that he has linebacker mentality?
Speaker 3: If that correct?
Speaker 1: He I called emailed him because I had read his
Speaker 1: research reports and I really liked him. He was then
Speaker 1: the CFO of the NFL. So when I was kind
Speaker 1: of trying to figure out my way, I was like,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm gonna do my summer internship like all
Speaker 1: you know, cocky NBA kids. You're like, I can go
Speaker 1: back into advestment begging if I went to you. And
Speaker 1: so I emailed him and was like, can I come
Speaker 1: work at the NFL and that, and thus began my
Speaker 1: journey with the NFL and a couple of the projects
Speaker 1: I worked on there from a finance standpoint were a
Speaker 1: seventeen game season, two teams moving to LA. This was
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, so there was only there were
Speaker 1: no and a failed joint venture between ESPN Classic and
Speaker 1: the NFL Network. It was wild times. I didn't know
Speaker 1: who any of these people were, like yelling at each other,
Speaker 1: I want Wisconsin football and then you know we can't
Speaker 1: pay for it. Was incredible, incredible stuff.
Speaker 3: Wow, So you worked on a seventeen game schedule?
Speaker 1: Yeah, back in two thousand and eight And the cool
Speaker 1: part was I got to talk to the Competition committee
Speaker 1: members who are like these, you know, Hall of Fame coaches,
Speaker 1: like people who know more they've forgotten more about football
Speaker 1: yesterday than the rest of us will ever know, and
Speaker 1: asking them about fairness and how to keep parody, which
Speaker 1: is really what everyone and including myself believes is the
Speaker 1: true advantage of NFL football as opposed to any other
Speaker 1: professional sport. And that was the dog.
Speaker 2: And I thought it was your ahead.
Speaker 1: Everyone knows he's here, he's like forty's here from here.
Speaker 1: So and that was kind of where I started to
Speaker 1: really be able to map together how like like analytics
Speaker 1: or at that time, you know, a lot of Excel documents.
Speaker 1: If I learned how to code in better languages, I
Speaker 1: could make better models, and those models, which were usually
Speaker 1: to inform revenue, they could be switched to inform performance
Speaker 1: because more competitive games for longer, more of an opportunity
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs, means more viewers, more viewers, more
Speaker 1: people care, more money, round and round again.
Speaker 3: So interesting.
Speaker 2: I read this Detroit Free Press article. This quote stood out.
Speaker 2: This is from twenty eighteen. Oh god, no, but this
Speaker 2: is because look, I am a part of Obviously, analytics
Speaker 2: are important, right, and I mean the master of all
Speaker 2: sports analytics would probably be the Oakland Athletics, right, I mean,
Speaker 2: like in terms of small market, yet they make the playoffs.
Speaker 2: It may not win, but it make the playoffs. They're
Speaker 2: using it. But this debate that sort of rages between
Speaker 2: analytics and gut right in a way. In a way
Speaker 2: Kyle Shanan versus Dan Campbell, Now that's reductive. I understand
Speaker 2: that because everybody's using it to some degree. But I
Speaker 2: think that this quote from you helped me to sort
Speaker 2: of understand and see analytics in a totally new way.
Speaker 2: You said, statistics is seeing that two defensive ends had
Speaker 2: the same number of secs, but analytics can measure who
Speaker 2: is the better player of the two, and that often
Speaker 2: has to do with what they're asked to do in
Speaker 2: the specific defenses that they're in and how well that
Speaker 2: they do it. And so the idea is it's not
Speaker 2: just numbers or knowing numbers, but I think through your
Speaker 2: work as well, it's being an insider and talking to
Speaker 2: other people, understanding what defenses, for example in that example,
Speaker 2: are being run, and using all of that information together
Speaker 2: to help be more predictive.
Speaker 1: I don't know is that I think it's to like
Speaker 1: really know, you know, I use this analogy a lot.
Speaker 1: Is like we kind of have a sense of who's overpaid,
Speaker 1: we kind of have a sense of who's underpaid, but
Speaker 1: you kind of need to know what paid is to
Speaker 1: be able to understand where that line actually is. At
Speaker 1: the extremes, everyone can figure it out. Everyone knows that
Speaker 1: there are good it's almost draft time. There are good
Speaker 1: quarterbacks coming up in this draft, and there are ones
Speaker 1: that maybe aren't quite as talented right now. However, when
Speaker 1: an analytics point of view could tell you is who
Speaker 1: has the better chance of being a better backup in
Speaker 1: a specific system? Who has a better chance of you know,
Speaker 1: there's so many different ways to sort of slice it
Speaker 1: that you can say, in my system, I'm looking for
Speaker 1: these attributes. I can handle not having these right So
Speaker 1: it's less about being reductive, I would you say, and
Speaker 1: more about finding a way to say these are the
Speaker 1: potential assets, this is how they could work, or these
Speaker 1: are you know, the potential attributes, and this is how
Speaker 1: we could nurture that development. I'm never gonna dunk a basketball.
Speaker 1: I'm not tall enough to do that, however, I could
Speaker 1: potentially learn to shoot three point three point shots better. Right, Like,
Speaker 1: there is something that nature is absolutely already made a boundary,
Speaker 1: but there are other things that make me more or
Speaker 1: less likely to be able to do.
Speaker 3: Something that's fascinating.
Speaker 2: You write, you write your own code, so you're not
Speaker 2: using other people's codes.
Speaker 1: You're no, I don't trust anyone else. This is I
Speaker 1: have like severe trust issues. No way, I don't use
Speaker 1: anyone else's code. Stay away.
Speaker 2: What was what speaking of statistics, what was your record
Speaker 2: against the spread this year?
Speaker 1: So I just went through and asked my producer because
Speaker 1: because I worked for the NFL and we're not allowed
Speaker 1: to get a do not track. You know, we're not
Speaker 1: allowed to do anything on our own. But although we
Speaker 1: pick every game with numbers, but don't ask me. I
Speaker 1: don't make the rules, I just follow them. So he
Speaker 1: told me that as of right now, I'm one seventy
Speaker 1: six and one oh eight, so that's sixty one point nine.
Speaker 3: Are you serious?
Speaker 1: He just emailed it to me because I was like,
Speaker 1: I don't know, And then see, we don't you like,
Speaker 1: we have to pick every game.
Speaker 2: There's no way point you have to pick every game,
Speaker 2: some you don't want to pick, right, Well.
Speaker 1: I will say this year though, someone that I haven't
Speaker 1: wanted to pick have helped me out a lot. This
Speaker 1: year is a little This year's a little whack, but
Speaker 1: like you know, many years, it's uh not that same. Wow. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I emailed him because I was like, I'm not this
Speaker 1: is not on me. One seventy We've had two hundred
Speaker 1: and eighty four games as of right now, one seventy
Speaker 1: six in one.
Speaker 3: Way, Wow, that's very impressive.
Speaker 1: Well, now I'm going to be one seventy six and
Speaker 1: one oh nine. I just feel it.
Speaker 2: Tell me a little bit about well, and we'll see
Speaker 2: what happens with the news. Maybe you'll be going back
Speaker 2: to work for ESPN. Why you worked after the league office?
Speaker 2: You went and worked for ESPN for almost five years
Speaker 2: and then transitioned over to the NFL network. Why what
Speaker 2: made you make that decision?
Speaker 1: Well, I was after business school. When I was done
Speaker 1: with business school, I went to Disney out here in
Speaker 1: Angelus and I was working in like the strap planning,
Speaker 1: like the scary part of it right where they were
Speaker 1: like you, but we'll buy you Lucasfilms, or we'll make
Speaker 1: some terrible acquisitions that I won't talk about in any
Speaker 1: interview going for anyways, But we work on these things
Speaker 1: that were like larger financial models, not dissimilar to what
Speaker 1: I had been doing at the NFL. It was the
Speaker 1: lockout year at the NFL, and I had had a
Speaker 1: health issue, so I was not going to be able
Speaker 1: to get health insurance, which is why I made the
Speaker 1: leap to Disney after doing that failed JV with That's
Speaker 1: that's how it all pieces together. So I came out here.
Speaker 1: I started doing that. Then a role opened out in
Speaker 1: Bristol to me from Los Angeles to West Hartford, Connecticut.
Speaker 1: Good decisions, My life choices are really good. And to
Speaker 1: work on the innovation team, which was like being able
Speaker 1: to use big data sort of like money before anyone
Speaker 1: was calling it like they were like moneyballing things right,
Speaker 1: like analytics. But also since I had actual tech background,
Speaker 1: figuring out how to sort of monetize different elements of
Speaker 1: this new analytics thing that was coming right. So the
Speaker 1: day that Paul D. Podesta of Oakland A's fame got
Speaker 1: hired by the Cleveland Browns, nobody at ESPN knew how
Speaker 1: to talk about it. So for my very first time
Speaker 1: ever on TV was a six pm Sports center talking
Speaker 1: about baseball and then football and what is quote unquote
Speaker 1: moneyball for football?
Speaker 3: Me?
Speaker 1: And there we have it. Then we have a switch.
Speaker 1: Then I had started doing it and they're like, why
Speaker 1: don't you come on home to the NFL because I
Speaker 1: still was very close with my NFL peeps, and I
Speaker 1: came back to really, what I want to do is
Speaker 1: help evolve this narrative around using data for storytelling. That's
Speaker 1: not like I'm going to say this is like really
Speaker 1: splashy thing and you're going to be mad at it
Speaker 1: or not, And it's more about, Okay, this is what
Speaker 1: you're seeing and this is why this is a trend
Speaker 1: that's following, or this is a trend that's breaking. So
Speaker 1: you know, it's like helping the fan who's already very smart,
Speaker 1: be a little bit more like, Okay, well, when you
Speaker 1: talk about like outside zone runs, why isn't that working
Speaker 1: this year? Or why does it look different? Why are
Speaker 1: people running the a gap again right as opposed to
Speaker 1: because there's always a pendulum the swings, and this is
Speaker 1: this year. Actually, we saw the defenses be far more
Speaker 1: impactful than we've seen in recent years so as that
Speaker 1: pendulum swings, we get to see a little bit of
Speaker 1: more of the macro narrative around it. As opposed to
Speaker 1: being like I don't like this person.
Speaker 2: I'm much more the second. I'm much more of the second.
Speaker 2: But I'm I'm pick here.
Speaker 1: You're entertaining a lot of people just yell into space
Speaker 1: like that. Last week I got real, Matt, like I
Speaker 1: was listening to some of these takes on Dan Campbell
Speaker 1: and people were yelling into space about stuff, and I'm like,
Speaker 1: I don't even think this is They're projecting something else,
Speaker 1: Like this is like a therapy session for them. This
Speaker 1: isn't about Dan Campbell's decision. Like, I'm like, we've gone
Speaker 1: well past that.
Speaker 2: But I'll be honest with you, I can't. I can't
Speaker 2: listen to it. I can't do it. I just can't.
Speaker 2: I just can't do it. And I don't need to
Speaker 2: name any name. I could name a number of names.
Speaker 2: I just my limit is reached. I'm I don't know,
Speaker 2: I don't feel old, but it feels I feel like
Speaker 2: crotchety and weirdly these most of these people are older
Speaker 2: than I am, but they're just yell. Maybe that's it.
Speaker 2: Maybe it's like the angry old man syndrome.
Speaker 1: I also don't I also don't love when people say
Speaker 1: that the analytics say during a broadcast, see that's what
Speaker 1: I want to do next, I want to do in
Speaker 1: in game. I've started trying to do it with pre
Speaker 1: season with the Bills. And if you can do and
Speaker 1: if you can get the internet to work real time
Speaker 1: on code in Pimark Stadium, you can get it to
Speaker 1: work anywhere because it's just not it's not a new stadium,
Speaker 1: it's an older standing. So that's what I've been trying
Speaker 1: to do. So we can say, hey, the instant pressure rate, right, Bills,
Speaker 1: you talk about defensive pressure. The Bills love like you
Speaker 1: talk about Bills, you talk about pressure on the defense,
Speaker 1: and so you be like, hey, right now they're tracking
Speaker 1: at thirty five percent, which is way lower than they're
Speaker 1: forty two percent that they usually do. Why, Okay, this
Speaker 1: is what's happening. Then you can have a better conversation
Speaker 1: about it. So but I don't like it's always about
Speaker 1: like fourth down decisions. The analytics say to go for it,
Speaker 1: the analytics say not to go for it, and you're like, well,
Speaker 1: the reality is is the model that they're using says
Speaker 1: in the past from this down distance and time on
Speaker 1: the clock remain remaining that this is what the outcome
Speaker 1: has been. But they don't know if like the right
Speaker 1: guard's been just getting smoked by Aaron Donald for the
Speaker 1: past six possessions whatever. You know, they don't have that
Speaker 1: like nuanced part. So it is and look, we don't
Speaker 1: have enough time on the broadcast to say, well, here's
Speaker 1: the nuances the right and all the times. But it
Speaker 1: is also a little frustrating as a person who I'm
Speaker 1: never saying anything like I'm saying in fact, I'm useless whatever.
Speaker 1: But like you know, like the analytics are never like
Speaker 1: you do like no, there's like a robot code in
Speaker 1: the back of a coach. It's like must do it,
Speaker 1: Like no, it's it's here's the decision that you need
Speaker 1: to make. And actually sometimes you have to make the
Speaker 1: low probability decision like you just see.
Speaker 3: So you know there.
Speaker 2: I love that you're saying that, and I think that
Speaker 2: there's another component as well. And you tell me as
Speaker 2: a numbers person if I'm way off here. I know
Speaker 2: people make too much out of momentum or energy. But there,
Speaker 2: but but hold but hold, hold on one second. There's
Speaker 2: this specific play that I always reference, which to me
Speaker 2: is like the model of this and I believe that
Speaker 2: I was proved right because they shot a show around it,
Speaker 2: and when you watch the show, it makes you want
Speaker 2: to kill somebody. Green Bay Packers the two hail mary
Speaker 2: game in Arizona in the playoffs, where literally with no
Speaker 2: time left on the clock, Rogers throws a hail mary
Speaker 2: to come within one point and they kicked the extra point. Now,
Speaker 2: there was some question about whether or not he caught
Speaker 2: the ball or they went to replay. And during that season,
Speaker 2: all or Nothing was on the Arizona Cardinals. So it
Speaker 2: came out and NFL Films was in there documenting every moment.
Speaker 2: And do you know what every single person on the
Speaker 2: Arizona sideline was doing after the play was made, before
Speaker 2: the point after attempt, they were looking at the scoreboard.
Speaker 2: They were looking at the score like, did was that
Speaker 2: a did did that?
Speaker 3: Did that?
Speaker 1: Just?
Speaker 3: Really? Did Was that? Was that a cat? Did that? Really?
Speaker 1: Just?
Speaker 3: Was that?
Speaker 2: What?
Speaker 3: Like? They were defeated, it was over, you go for
Speaker 3: two and you.
Speaker 2: Win the game, and whatever the quote unquote analytics say
Speaker 2: in that moment to me, you have you have to
Speaker 2: define the time of the game, the circumstances around that
Speaker 2: as well, not just if Aaron Donald was smoking the
Speaker 2: right uh, the right tackle. But like where where we are,
Speaker 2: we haven't never talking about well the analytics say, in
Speaker 2: the past, with no time left on a clock in
Speaker 2: a playoff game where you've just had a hail Mary
Speaker 2: three against you really and then of course you know
Speaker 2: Green Bay never got the ball.
Speaker 3: Not that I'm still living back.
Speaker 2: Then, but I was in the stadium that day, and
Speaker 2: I even at the moment I screamed and screamed, what
Speaker 2: are you doing?
Speaker 3: What are you doing? Anyway? All right?
Speaker 1: So wait, I'll give you an answer for that, okay,
Speaker 1: because I think the two things that get conflated are
Speaker 1: momentum and psychology. There is a psychological factor when you
Speaker 1: have a massive play like that, and if you have
Speaker 1: another one in the arsenal where you have a stronger
Speaker 1: belief in yourself. I am not a psychologist, but I
Speaker 1: think those behavioral aspects are measurable. When people say the
Speaker 1: word momentum, that gets tricky because like I don't really
Speaker 1: always know what they mean, right, Like in that case,
Speaker 1: I know what you mean by it. But like like
Speaker 1: sometimes people be like, well, if I get up on
Speaker 1: my couch and I watch from my bathroom through the
Speaker 1: little window, I've done, you know, a butterfly wing flapped
Speaker 1: in Japan and whatever, like you know, like that that's
Speaker 1: not the same, right, Like I think have to be
Speaker 1: careful with psychology, okay, like whatever we mean.
Speaker 3: By okay, So psychology you think is valid.
Speaker 1: Moment psychology is valid. I'm not sure always. It's just
Speaker 1: like when the the word analytics has been bastardized. The
Speaker 1: word momentum also bastardized, right, like motion object is that whatever?
Speaker 1: Like we get it, but like sometimes they stop like
Speaker 1: it's it's It's very tricky because I would argue sometimes
Speaker 1: it's like, well now it's special teams guys, and it's
Speaker 1: not the same. People like, but the psychology I think
Speaker 1: is real, I don't. But again, you're you're bastardizing the
Speaker 1: word momentum if you just use it for everything. Yep,
Speaker 1: they've got momentum swing up, momentum swing up, like it
Speaker 1: doesn't mean anything anywhore. Just like the analytics say, I.
Speaker 3: Need to watch it, sounds like you and I are
Speaker 3: the same.
Speaker 2: I need to watch the games with you, because I
Speaker 2: spend as much time yelling at the announcers as I
Speaker 2: do anybody else. And I think based on this conversation,
Speaker 2: I find we're we're on the same page.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean some of them are. I will say
Speaker 1: the ones that are great or really like I'm like
Speaker 1: a I'm like a Greg Olsen fan times a million,
Speaker 1: Like I think he does a great job. So like
Speaker 1: he he doesn't get in his uh in his bag
Speaker 1: with weird trick phrases, right right, No, an I Eagle.
Speaker 1: I will go to the map for Iron Eagle. I
Speaker 1: love Iron Eagle. He's also like the he's like super
Speaker 1: fun to work with, so well.
Speaker 2: That makes that makes a difference too. But wait, I
Speaker 2: do want to circle back on one thing. So you
Speaker 2: don't think based on whether I'm sitting or standing or
Speaker 2: watching a game through the window at a bar or
Speaker 2: sitting down at a table in the bar, you don't
Speaker 2: think that I have control over what's going on.
Speaker 1: I mean you might. I guess it's possible, But I'm
Speaker 1: a probabilities girl. That is a low probability event.
Speaker 3: There was in the bathroom for that last throwing.
Speaker 1: The ball, and you're like just simply like moonlighting as
Speaker 1: another person, but you're actually Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball
Speaker 1: in that moment. Then then we can talk about where
Speaker 1: you're watching it from actually matters, because you know arm
Speaker 1: angles actual velocity.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I was in the bathroom for that last offensive drive.
Speaker 2: I got to go back again. Call me, hey, knock
Speaker 2: on the door when they've scored again.
Speaker 1: Oh god, oh, my mother, my Italian mother. We went
Speaker 1: to my closest. My close friend in college is Matthias
Speaker 1: q and Uka, who was a defensive end for the
Speaker 1: New York Giants. We went to a game where he
Speaker 1: played in Detroit and he got hurt. As we were
Speaker 1: walking out, she went in the bathroom, came back out,
Speaker 1: threw her shirt away. Luckily she was wearing a jacket
Speaker 1: over it. But she's like, it's all my fault, it's
Speaker 1: the shirt, and we're like, so, my mom caused an injury.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would never think anything like that. I might
Speaker 2: have looked for a hat that I wore the last
Speaker 2: time a team played.
Speaker 1: I might wash the lion's sweatshirt. I didn't wash it all.
Speaker 3: So it's fine, is that true? You know you can
Speaker 3: watch it for next year? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Okay, a couple of specifics before general you think that
Speaker 2: you know the thing I mentioned before.
Speaker 3: I mean, I know this is reductive.
Speaker 2: It's almost embarrassing to say these things in front of you,
Speaker 2: But you know, the two teams played four years ago.
Speaker 2: Obviously a number of the same people involved. I think
Speaker 2: the coaches both being involved again and having the same
Speaker 2: experience of preparing for a Super Bowl for two weeks
Speaker 2: against the other coach. I think that's significant. Many of
Speaker 2: the same players.
Speaker 3: But as I.
Speaker 1: Mentioned, seventeen players that haven't played in Super Bowl. I
Speaker 1: know it's not the same as the one four years ago,
Speaker 1: but that's seventeen players that haven't That's crazy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's crazy. The lie if the Lions were playing
Speaker 2: in it, what would it be like fifty.
Speaker 1: Seventh Jarry Goff has played in the Super Bowl? Like
Speaker 1: maybe maybe three? Right, Oh, you're under would be said
Speaker 1: at three players. I haven't seen the I haven't looked
Speaker 1: at the roster and the Super Bowl. That's where I
Speaker 1: said it under two.
Speaker 3: Do you?
Speaker 2: But obviously there's Christian McCaffrey this time around. There's also
Speaker 2: mister not irrelevant anymore, Rock Purty. But to me, a
Speaker 2: significant difference is the Chiefs defense is no longer irrelevant.
Speaker 2: What do you think about this time around with the
Speaker 2: vaunted forty nine er offense against this new look Chiefs defense,
Speaker 2: which I don't know where you had them, that would
Speaker 2: be interesting. I couldn't find a list where the chief
Speaker 2: We're not in the top five, and most of them
Speaker 2: had them number two this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think they're probably three ish two
Speaker 1: for me as well. It's hard. I'll have to go
Speaker 1: back and look, but top five for sure, absolutely, top
Speaker 1: four for sure. The interesting part in this game will
Speaker 1: be the yards after the catch for the Niners, because Niners,
Speaker 1: that's what they do. Past two seasons, they've led in
Speaker 1: that metric on a per reception basis, six point seven
Speaker 1: yards per reception that is a lot. Two point one
Speaker 1: of those are yards after the catch over expected. So
Speaker 1: that is a stat that I like because it kind
Speaker 1: of makes you like like it's like a war sort
Speaker 1: of metric. For it's better when it's for position groups
Speaker 1: like yards after the catch over expected. It's not quite
Speaker 1: as amazing on an individual player basis because whatever, but
Speaker 1: as a blended group it's actually pretty instructive. So there,
Speaker 1: I mean six point sevens a ton and the Chiefs
Speaker 1: defense they are so best at limiting such yards, so
Speaker 1: they're really good tacklers. They're understanding where they're supposed to be.
Speaker 1: They're strategic with they're blitzing. Sure they do it at
Speaker 1: a top six rate in the league, but it's strategic
Speaker 1: so they're not getting a blitz and then just not
Speaker 1: getting home right like they're blitzing in times either you know,
Speaker 1: a predictable passing down or something where they get a pressure.
Speaker 1: For example, in this game, I would look at the
Speaker 1: right side of the offensive line for the forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: I mean, we saw Aiden Hutchinson from the Lions lineup
Speaker 1: against there and then you know, George Kittle like smoked
Speaker 1: him a couple of times. But it's still like that's
Speaker 1: the side of the line that they're gonna need to
Speaker 1: account for. But it's really their their ability to, especially
Speaker 1: at the intermediate level, just kind of find that area
Speaker 1: right in between where those rushers go and where the
Speaker 1: you know, the safeties are in the back because the
Speaker 1: corners are very good and both Lagarious Snead and Trent
Speaker 1: McDuffie in the red area get even better. So don't
Speaker 1: get the compressed field they need to rely on yak.
Speaker 1: They that's that will be the to me, that's the
Speaker 1: one thing if the Niners win, it's because they've got
Speaker 1: a lot of yak That's why.
Speaker 2: I love that yacks after catch.
Speaker 3: I love that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny, you, I mean, it's not funny at all.
Speaker 2: I don't know why I use that. That was just
Speaker 2: like me trying to think of a word to say.
Speaker 2: But like McCaffrey, Debo, even Kittle, Yeah, you you when
Speaker 2: you see their plays or when you when you think
Speaker 2: about them, it's just like they just make people miss.
Speaker 2: They just make people one to twelve. There's only eleven
Speaker 2: players on defense. But you know what I'm saying, like, yeah,
Speaker 2: usually that's that is That's very interesting.
Speaker 3: Uh, Rock.
Speaker 2: He has well, Certainly the second half of the Detroit game,
Speaker 2: he put on a pretty impressive performance. Doesn't a peer, however,
Speaker 2: to be dominating start to finish as he was during
Speaker 2: the regular season.
Speaker 3: You think he's going to be tight. What does the
Speaker 3: numbers say about that?
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a tighter game. I think.
Speaker 1: I mean, I can tell you who I have winning.
Speaker 1: I mean, I've done all my I've done my homework,
Speaker 1: correct you have I yeah, yeah, oh yeah. I mean obviously,
Speaker 1: if there is some weird injury that you know, if
Speaker 1: something really strange happens, this would all potentially change. But
Speaker 1: despite Brock and these two things can be true at
Speaker 1: the same time. I think Rock Curdy is a is
Speaker 1: a good quarterback, and I think he's a long term
Speaker 1: great solution. My it doesn't necessarily mean that. I don't
Speaker 1: think that Kansas City's offense is going to dominate San
Speaker 1: Francisco's offense. And that's more where I fall. I think
Speaker 1: hopefully and I do have a pretty healthy scoring game,
Speaker 1: but I think that the chiefs. To me, it's it's
Speaker 1: going to be hard to outwit the chief in this
Speaker 1: chess game, especially since and I would say this to
Speaker 1: Kyle Shannon if he was sitting right here. Sometimes at
Speaker 1: the end of games, look what happens if he's trailing
Speaker 1: in fourth quarters. It's not a pretty number. And sometimes
Speaker 1: in the end of game like he's like, let's run,
Speaker 1: and You're like, no, it's a past, Like you know,
Speaker 1: he just the strategy doesn't work, and it's not And
Speaker 1: this has honestly, it's nothing to do with Brock Purty.
Speaker 1: It's not because I think Brock Purty is going to
Speaker 1: go out there and like not and throw what did
Speaker 1: you throw against the Ravens like feign or so No
Speaker 1: that that ain't it. It's just more I think Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes in this situation, and more Isaiah Pacheco, because I
Speaker 1: think that's where they're going to get those burst yards.
Speaker 1: Go watch what happened on first down with the Lions
Speaker 1: game or with your guy Aaron Jones in the Packers
Speaker 1: game the week before. It's those first downs, on first
Speaker 1: downs where you can really the Niners can get got.
Speaker 1: They can get got on those And as unsexy as
Speaker 1: that sounds, that to me is a far more instructive
Speaker 1: way to live than to say, hey, we need to
Speaker 1: rely on not confusing brock Purdy for four quarters because,
Speaker 1: by the way, Steve Spagnola is expert at that. By
Speaker 1: the way, did you know the fifteenth anniversary that David
Speaker 1: Tyree head thing where Steve Spagnola was a defensive cordator.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I just thought that the other day.
Speaker 1: I was like, Wow, it's been that's crazy. Bags is
Speaker 1: a coordator in that Super Bowl, too insane. He'd beat
Speaker 1: Tom Brady, who was undefeated that year, So you got
Speaker 1: to give Spags a little bit of credit right there.
Speaker 3: Wow, you got the Chiefs winning a close one.
Speaker 1: A I do, I do? Which is the under you
Speaker 1: know they're not favored?
Speaker 3: Me too, Me too? I don't know.
Speaker 2: Is that that's either that's either winning twinning or we're
Speaker 2: both going to be wrong, I mean, one way or
Speaker 2: the other, or at least on the same team. Well,
Speaker 2: I am hoping for a big game from my fellow
Speaker 2: s m U Mustangs hailed to the red and the
Speaker 2: blue of the Mustangs of SMU. Rushi Rice having a
Speaker 2: really nice little postseason. I'm hoping it continues.
Speaker 1: And so I want to give you my low key.
Speaker 1: I like Rassi Rice, but I think my low key
Speaker 1: like if you want to think about I mean to
Speaker 1: use the word alternate m vps, perhaps not quarterbacks or
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey, because those two would those three would seem
Speaker 1: the most obvious. I think I think there could be
Speaker 1: a world where Isaiah Patchecko happens to run rough shot,
Speaker 1: and not that I don't. I don't think it's super likely,
Speaker 1: but I think it's I think there's value there because
Speaker 1: because look, if you're gonna say, I believe the Chiefs win,
Speaker 1: and part of the way the Chiefs win is to
Speaker 1: keep the ball out. You got to keep the ball
Speaker 1: on the side. We both think there's going to be
Speaker 1: a decent amount of points scored. Okay, so then what
Speaker 1: what do you What do you do? If you're Andy Reid?
Speaker 1: Strategically you run the football or you use the short
Speaker 1: passes that we've seen. And that's where because you're not
Speaker 1: going to pass into Fred Warren or Drake green Law,
Speaker 1: this is not gonna happen. But you can on outside
Speaker 1: zone runs, which is hilariously like Kyle Shanahan's special outside
Speaker 1: zone runs. That's how they can make them like not
Speaker 1: very happy.
Speaker 3: I like it. I like it a lot.
Speaker 2: We will we will see you in Las Vegas very
Speaker 2: very soon. Thank you so much for your insight. I
Speaker 2: just put a million dollars on Pacheco to win the MVP.
Speaker 2: The odds were incredible. I hope that was smart. If not, again,
Speaker 2: it's your fault.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's totally my fault. And if you win,
Speaker 1: I'll let you pay off my student loans.
Speaker 2: Actually, if I were to make that bet, I would
Speaker 2: pay I would pay off your student loan even though
Speaker 2: after today I know that you have eighty seven degrees,
Speaker 2: I would still pay all.
Speaker 1: Pay for two of them. So I got one.
Speaker 2: Gun, Cynthia. Thank you so much. I will see you
Speaker 2: in Vegas.
Speaker 1: See you very soon, safe travel, stay out of this.
Speaker 3: Rat you too.
Speaker 2: Thank you Cynthia for joining me. I will see you
Speaker 2: in Vegas. We're gonna well, we're gonna have an interesting week,
Speaker 2: to say the least, and everybody you heard it here
Speaker 2: First the Chiefs in a high scoring, close game over
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 3: Again, we're both right or we're both wrong.
Speaker 2: Listeners, thank you so much for indulging me with storytime
Speaker 2: with Brian today, and enjoy the game. Good luck in
Speaker 2: whatever way you choose to watch, and I will see
Speaker 2: you next week for another Well, it's gonna be an
Speaker 2: amazing episode. Off the Beat is hosted and executive produced
Speaker 2: by me Brian Baumgartner, alongside our executive producer Ling Lee.
Speaker 2: Our senior producer is Diego Tapia. Our producers are Liz Hayes,
Speaker 2: Hannah Harris, and Emily Carr. Our talent producer is Ryan
Speaker 2: Papa Zachary. Our theme song Bubble and Squeak, performed by
Speaker 2: the One and only Creed Bratton