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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Texas Republican Michael McCall says, I

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Speaker 1: think Russian propaganda has made its way into the United States. No, really,

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Speaker 1: and unfortunately it's infected a good chunk of my party's base. Oh,

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Speaker 1: you don't say. We have a fascinating show for you today.

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Speaker 1: Talking Feds, Harry Littman tells us about the stakes of

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Speaker 1: Judge Aileen Cannon's latest insane ruling. Then we'll talk to

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Speaker 1: Inside Elections Jacob Rubashkin about some of these very exciting

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Speaker 1: house races. But first we have the host of the

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Speaker 1: Time of Monsters the Nations, jed Here. Welcome back to

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Speaker 1: Fast Politics The Nations. My friend jed.

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Speaker 2: Here, always great to be on the show. Willy, So, I.

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Speaker 1: Want to talk to you about something that got no

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Speaker 1: coverage but that I know happened because I watched c

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Speaker 1: SPAN and I'm a total nerd. Yesterday Bernie Sanders. You'll

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Speaker 1: remember Bernie Sanders because he was really probably very likely

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Speaker 1: could have been president. Whatever. We're not going to relitigate

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, but we'll just say this Bernie Sanders has become,

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Speaker 1: and of course it gets no media attention because there's

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Speaker 1: no drama. One of the great champions of Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: And yesterday he was at the White House talking about

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Speaker 1: how drug prices. I mean, this was like I was

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Speaker 1: listening to this and I was like, holy shit, this

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Speaker 1: is the thing that I've been obsessed with forever. That

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Speaker 1: an inhaler will cost six hundred dollars in America and

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Speaker 1: ten bucks in Germany, that you know, in asthma medicine

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Speaker 1: will cost seven hundred dollars in America and two dollars

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Speaker 1: in the UK. Joe Biden has really satiated a lot

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Speaker 1: of the stuff Bernie Sanders had been has been trying

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Speaker 1: to a pass. Can you talk about that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Sure.

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Speaker 2: I mean one thing about Joe Biden is he's really,

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Speaker 2: on almost all issues a party man, and then he

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Speaker 2: will go where the party is. And I think that

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Speaker 2: he more than a lot of mainstream Democrats saw, you know,

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Speaker 2: like how far Bernie got in twenty sixteen, and to

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Speaker 2: be fair, even like in twenty twenty, where he did

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Speaker 2: less well in a more crowded field, but still he

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Speaker 2: was like, you know, the number two guy. And so

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think Biden realizes that you have to

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Speaker 2: have a functioning party, you have to like include you know,

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Speaker 2: the first time is like the second most popular person,

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Speaker 2: like two times in a row. The drug prices is

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Speaker 2: a great example of this. I mean, I think there's

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Speaker 2: other stuff like it sort of builds back better the

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Speaker 2: sort of infrastructure spending. It's such a no brainer, and

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Speaker 2: it's such a way to draw contrasts between the Democrats

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Speaker 2: and the Republicans and between Biden and Trump, particularly since

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Speaker 2: you know, like I think, actually what weakness of Trump

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Speaker 2: is that he can no longer really own the economic

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Speaker 2: populism in a way that he kind of did with

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Speaker 2: like Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen, We're not seeing like

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Speaker 2: you know, answert of like trade issues or other issues.

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Speaker 2: Biden seeding that ground. And furthermore, I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: the great thing he is like Trump barely talks about

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Speaker 2: this stuff. I mean he does kind of talk about trade,

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Speaker 2: but like, you know, much more grandiose and I think

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Speaker 2: frightening to a lot of people, like you know, to.

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Speaker 3: Say, you know, like.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well where else you know, like I actually think,

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Speaker 2: like in twenty sixteen, like you know, the moment I

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Speaker 2: got terrified was when the speeches he was making in

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Speaker 2: places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, where you know, like often

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Speaker 2: he's undisciplined, but like when he was there, I don't

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Speaker 2: know if Steve Bannon or somebody else was like really

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Speaker 2: you know, like whispering in his ears. But he really

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Speaker 2: hit the economic populism everything hard about, you know, like

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Speaker 2: deanersitization and job losses. But I actually think, like you know,

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Speaker 2: Democrats have regained that territory. Yeah, I mean, Burney deserves

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Speaker 2: a lot of credit, and you know, like I want

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Speaker 2: to be fair, like Biden deserves a lot of credit

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Speaker 2: here too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, and I mean I don't think it matters.

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Speaker 1: Like Bernie did come in and he was really involved

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Speaker 1: in the budget stuff and in the Inflation Reduction Act,

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Speaker 1: which by the way, reduced inflation, right like government spending works.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's the crazy thing we've seen, Like in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and eight during the financial crisis. We now

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Speaker 1: know that the reason that it fucked up was because

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Speaker 1: we didn't go big enough.

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Speaker 2: Right Yeah, no, no, no, that's right. And I want to

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Speaker 2: say something else on the inflation front, because it ties

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Speaker 2: in with this economic populism and the way Biden has

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Speaker 2: observed a lot of this stuff. I mean, there is

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Speaker 2: a kind of debate among economists at a very high level,

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Speaker 2: you know, like what was the cause of this recent

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Speaker 2: spurt of inflation. Basically, people like Larry Summer's have a

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Speaker 2: sort of monitorist view like the spending that caused the inflation,

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Speaker 2: and the only cure of this is to like radically

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Speaker 2: raise interest rates. And then like Larry Summers that actually said,

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Speaker 2: you know, you need like seven point five percent unemployment

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Speaker 2: or maybe ten percent unemployment, that's the only cure. Right

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Speaker 2: where is that? There are other economists like Isabella Waverer

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Speaker 2: who made that quite rational or like argument, like we're

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Speaker 2: talking about inflation, like what actually happened here? There was

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Speaker 2: like you know, like a pandemic. There were like in

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Speaker 2: these shortages of goods, and then companies were able to

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Speaker 2: exploit this to do sort of price gouging and that

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Speaker 2: if you address that issue you can have a better

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Speaker 2: take on this. And one notices that like Biden, he's

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Speaker 2: talking about you know, things like shrinkflation, but also like

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Speaker 2: corporate profit hearing, you know, like yeah, this was not

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Speaker 2: a natural thing for Biden.

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Speaker 3: By the way.

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Speaker 2: I mean I think he was actually initially there. The

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Speaker 2: White House was reluctant to go this path. But all

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Speaker 2: the polls show like if you actually talk about inflation

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Speaker 2: in those terms, that like like this is not like

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Speaker 2: you know, just some act of God or some cause

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Speaker 2: of like simply monetary policy, that that they are actually

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Speaker 2: people who have taken advantage of the chaos caused like COVID,

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Speaker 2: and that we will go after them. That resonates with

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Speaker 2: the experience of a lot of people. I mean people

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Speaker 2: actually experience this with eco shopping, prograsseries and they suddenly

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Speaker 2: notice that like the cereal box is like half empty,

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Speaker 2: Like there's something save more higher price with a half

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Speaker 2: empty box.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. And I actually think it's kind of really great.

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Speaker 1: And one of the things that I've really been struck

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Speaker 1: by in Biden world, which I like and appreciate and

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Speaker 1: I hope to see more of, is them being pressured

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Speaker 1: into doing the right thing. Sometimes they do the wrong thing,

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Speaker 1: and the activist side is able to sort of get

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Speaker 1: them to do what needs to happen. What the right

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Speaker 1: thing to happen there is Can you talk about that

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Speaker 1: a little bit?

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Speaker 2: The question is like when you're talking about politics, like

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Speaker 2: what sort of theory of change do you have? And

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Speaker 2: I think that, like, you know, for me, it's always

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Speaker 2: been that there's two sort of preconditions for like sort

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Speaker 2: of you know, progressive politic in the last century, like

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Speaker 2: let's not talking about the nineteenth century, where you know,

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Speaker 2: you had the Republican you actually had good Republicans like

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Speaker 2: Lincoln in Ulysses Grant. But in the twentieth and twenty

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Speaker 2: first century, what do you need to actually have probably

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Speaker 2: like two things. One is the Democrats political party having

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Speaker 2: power like the presidency, Congress. The second pre condition, though,

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Speaker 2: is that you need a mass movement that is actually

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Speaker 2: prodding them to like do something. Because to be honest,

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Speaker 2: like I think, like you know, like natural condition a

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Speaker 2: lot of politicians is you know, like you get away

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Speaker 2: with as tho as you can, like if you can

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Speaker 2: make people happy by declaring, you know, well, this is

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Speaker 2: National pine Cone Day and don't we all love pinecones?

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Speaker 2: Like they'll do that, right, Like they could do that

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Speaker 2: all day long, every day, three hundred and sixty five

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Speaker 2: days a year, right, Yeah, like you know, like hug

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Speaker 2: your dog day. Sure, But if you actually have you know,

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Speaker 2: people out on the streets like the unions were in

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Speaker 2: the thirties, or like the anti war movement and the

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Speaker 2: civil rights movement we're in the sixties, or act Up

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Speaker 2: was in the nineteen nineties. And you don't have Republicans

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Speaker 2: who just not listen to people, you actually have Democrats

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Speaker 2: who know that well these are actually are voters. Then yeah,

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Speaker 2: you can actually prad and change things. So my theory

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Speaker 2: of change so always been you need those two things,

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Speaker 2: most of them, and I think the fallacy that people

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Speaker 2: fall into is like seeing only one side of the equation. Well,

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Speaker 2: we just need to like you know, vote blue, no

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Speaker 2: matter who you know, then that will be a fight

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Speaker 2: or con recently, you know, like we just need to

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Speaker 2: kind of protest, although I actually you actually have to

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Speaker 2: like vote that people are going to listen to you

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Speaker 2: into office and then you protest.

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Speaker 1: One of these sort of interesting moments here that we

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Speaker 1: saw is that there's a real sea change in Democratic

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Speaker 1: leaders from Bill Clinton, who got in there, Like I'm

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Speaker 1: struck by you have a Republican base that is just

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Speaker 1: controls drives the fucking ship right. They want no abortion,

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Speaker 1: they want no birth control pills, they want no anything.

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Speaker 1: They want no, no fault divorces, and Republicans are like yes,

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Speaker 1: And then you have a Democratic base that want like

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Speaker 1: clean air. You know, maybe Exon shouldn't be you know,

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Speaker 1: controlling our federal government. We don't think kids should get

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Speaker 1: cancer from dirty air. And you know what I mean,

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Speaker 1: like these are not wildly progressive ideas, and there's still

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Speaker 1: quite a bit of pushback in the Democratic Party. And

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Speaker 1: I think that Biden world has been much better about that.

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Speaker 2: Biden hasn't been about that. I mean, I think this

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Speaker 2: is sort of like is this change that take it

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Speaker 2: a long time to get together? And you know, like

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Speaker 2: not to speak ill of the dead, but I think

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Speaker 2: an emblematic figure, well I will speak ill of is

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Speaker 2: Joel Liberman. You know, it was like remember the sort

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Speaker 2: of you know, Democratic vice presidential like nominee in the

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Speaker 2: year twenty oh oh and like you know, right with

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Speaker 2: Al Gore and was seen as like, well, this is

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Speaker 2: the guy we need to win over the moderate boats.

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Speaker 2: But you know, it was a major Democrat, but his

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Speaker 2: major achievements were always like, you know, to go against

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Speaker 2: the base of his party to the point where like

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Speaker 2: you know, like he got primary doun where they you know,

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Speaker 2: like the Democratic voters of Connecticut said Noah, and then

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Speaker 2: he ran as an independent. I think the easing out

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Speaker 2: of figures like Joe Lieberman is a kind of significant factor.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's still you always get a few Senators

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Speaker 2: who like to show vote by doing that, but I

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Speaker 2: think that particular type of politics doesn't have a future.

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Speaker 2: And once he's actually also with the sort of like cinema,

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Speaker 2: like I think, like, you know, the fact that she

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Speaker 2: is going to be like, you know, one term senator

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Speaker 2: is not an accident, Like you cannot get very far

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Speaker 2: with that sort of politics anymore. And I think Joe Biden,

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Speaker 2: you know, like he's been around for a long time,

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Speaker 2: but partly he's been around for a long time because

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Speaker 2: he knows which way the wind is shifting, and he

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Speaker 2: knows what the party is and where the party is going.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, I mean, I think he does

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Speaker 2: kind of deserve credit, and I think he understands that

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Speaker 2: old sort of primelation model does not work anymore.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And one of the things about Joe Biden, which

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Speaker 1: I actually really do appreciate is bin World has actually

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Speaker 1: been really good at working within the kind of weird

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Speaker 1: metrics of what the American system is right now. Like

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Speaker 1: what I'm thinking of that I think was a real

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Speaker 1: three dimensional chess move was this bordered bill. Because that

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Speaker 1: border bill. So you know, we've had in America, we've

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Speaker 1: had zero border legislation since for about twenty years. So

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Speaker 1: there's no money going to the border and no legislation.

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Speaker 1: So surprisingly it's not going great. And everyone who is

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Speaker 1: there on the left on the right agree is they

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Speaker 1: need money. They need money for judges and agents and

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Speaker 1: care for people and you know, everything from food to enforcement.

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Speaker 1: Both sides agree that when you starve a part of

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Speaker 1: the federal government, it really sucks. I mean Republicans wanted

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Speaker 1: to suck and Democrats don't, but they agree on that

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Speaker 1: central premise. You know what Biden world did was they

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Speaker 1: were like, Okay, you guys are going to negotiate this

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Speaker 1: border bill, which had it passed, it is a very

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Speaker 1: restrictive fell right, it involved border closures. By the way,

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Speaker 1: border closures one of the dumbest Republican ideas. You know

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Speaker 1: how many people go across the border Republicans for dinner,

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Speaker 1: for shopping, for vacations. I mean, like anyway it would

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Speaker 1: have involved border shutdowns. It would have involved very stringent

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Speaker 1: numbers and would have you know, limited immigration in a

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Speaker 1: million different ways, and you had Mike Johnson saying it

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Speaker 1: was dead on arrival. I mean, was Biden World playing

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Speaker 1: three dimensional chess or did they just get lucky? Well?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean I do think that they have a

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Speaker 2: pretty good sense of how dysfunctional the Republicans are now

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Speaker 2: they can shoot themselves in the fund coming out of

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Speaker 2: the border thing, like I think, like it really was

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Speaker 2: a sort of clarifying moment, especially like this particular Republican

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Speaker 2: Congress where both the margins are small, but also like

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Speaker 2: Johnson is perhaps the most incompetent party leader like I've

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Speaker 2: ever seen in a lifetime of the anti Nazi Pelosi,

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Speaker 2: and then they'll be holding too extremists and they don't

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Speaker 2: know how to control that. I mean, the big picture

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Speaker 2: is Biden has up and where when what I wanted

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Speaker 2: him to be, like in the polls. But things are

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Speaker 2: tightening now and things are improving, and I think it's

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Speaker 2: partially this clarification issue where like you know, like if

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Speaker 2: you actually see how incompetent and extremist the Republicans are,

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Speaker 2: then I think Biden's virtues shining forth, and they are

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Speaker 2: virtues of sort of like you know, actual governance, actual policies,

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Speaker 2: you know, like he maybe does this sort of you

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Speaker 2: know what, I'm trying to be bipartisan more than I

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Speaker 2: would like. But actually, because the Republicans are so incompetent,

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Speaker 2: like it actually has worked out. The times actually like

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Speaker 2: show how extreme and bad they are. So I agree that,

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Speaker 2: you know, there's a lot of like, you know, very

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Speaker 2: positive developments.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it is this sort of interesting world where

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Speaker 1: you're really on a knife sedge. One of the things

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Speaker 1: that we're going to watch this week is whether Mike

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Speaker 1: Johnson can keep his job. Marjorie Taylor Green is getting

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Speaker 1: increasingly insane and mad at him, called him a Democrat.

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Speaker 1: One of the things that really annoyed the fuck out

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Speaker 1: of me, to be honest, is that I was reading

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Speaker 1: some reporting about it, and the reporter, a mainstream where

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Speaker 1: political reporter was saying, well, Democrats should watch out because

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Speaker 1: they could get someone more conservative than Mike Johnson. Now,

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Speaker 1: eventually this Republican party will get more conservative than Mike Johnson.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, don't you think Mike Johnson.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he's a pretty conservative.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is the day that no holds

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Speaker 2: war theocrat, like, you know, we want to control what

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Speaker 2: is I always forget the number of mountains. It's like five,

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Speaker 2: six mountains whatever, Like yeah.

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Speaker 3: Seven mountains.

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Speaker 1: It's some crazy yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah. This sounds like a theme parky you

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Speaker 2: take your kids to, Like We're going to seven mountains

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Speaker 2: this weekend. By all evidence, just in a very extreme

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Speaker 2: theocrat and you know, like hardline conservative all along the way.

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Speaker 2: But the media is still psyched with his idea. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's up to the Democrats to create a good Republican party.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, I think Democrats as a whole have

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Speaker 2: moved on that. There's ha been a shift. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it is interesting. I think it also like how Biden

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Speaker 2: conceives of the presidency is different. Like I think that

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Speaker 2: both Clinton and Obama saw themselves as trying to be

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Speaker 2: this independent force of the party that can you know,

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Speaker 2: negotiate between Democrats and Republicans, whereas I think Biden has

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Speaker 2: more parliamentary sense, like I am the leader of this

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Speaker 2: party and I represent the interests of this party when

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Speaker 2: I'm negotiating with Republicans. And I think that is a

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Speaker 2: sort of significant shift. I mean, I think that is

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Speaker 2: a model one once for democratic presidents going into the future.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. Chid here. I hope you'll

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Speaker 1: come back.

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Speaker 2: You can't keep me away.

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Speaker 1: Spring is here, and I bet you are trying to

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Speaker 1: look fashionable. So why not pick up some fashionable all

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Speaker 1: new Fast Politics merchandise. We just opened a news store

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Speaker 1: with all new designs just for you. Get t shirts, hoodies, hats,

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Speaker 1: and topaks. To grab some head to fastpolitics dot com.

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Speaker 1: Harry Litman is a former US attorney and host of

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Speaker 1: the podcast Talking Feds. Welcome back you to my podcast,

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Speaker 1: Meet your podcast. Hi Harry Lettman.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Hey, Hey, Molly Dong Fast It is another Molly

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Speaker 4: mash up, the special correspondent extraordinaire for Fanny Fair, the

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Speaker 4: host of the podcast Fast Politics. So yes, we're we're

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Speaker 4: having an unholy marriage here between Fast Politics and Talking Fed.

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Speaker 2: And you know the rules.

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Speaker 4: Now, you show every question, baby, totally candid, and then

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Speaker 4: I get to turn the tables on her. So I

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Speaker 4: want to start with your nerdiest, pointy headedness little legal

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Speaker 4: question and see if you can stump me. I'm ready.

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Speaker 1: This is not my nerdiest question, but this is the

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Speaker 1: thing that everybody's interested in it seems as if things

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Speaker 1: have escalated with Judge Cannon and Jack Smith. Right that

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Speaker 1: there was sort of a back and forth, and now

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Speaker 1: Jack Smith is kind of like he kind of gets

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Speaker 1: what a bad faith after she is talk to me

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Speaker 1: about where you think this case is and more importantly

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Speaker 1: where it can go.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so you're one hundred percent right. This was the

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Speaker 4: big move Monday night. Remember what has she been doing

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Speaker 4: entertaining all kinds of fur cocked ideas from Trump but

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Speaker 4: also even worse delaying, delaying, not ruling.

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Speaker 3: And the like.

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Speaker 4: And that put the DOJ in a tricky position because

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Speaker 4: they have a previous bad ruling by her, and if

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Speaker 4: you combine it with another, that'd be a case to recuse.

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Speaker 4: But she doesn't give them anything and purposely doesn't give

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Speaker 4: them anything to grab onto as a ruling. This latest

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Speaker 4: thing is a perfect example, one hundred percent bizarre idea.

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Speaker 4: Let's just talk about jury instructions based on law that

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Speaker 4: doesn't exist. Let's just talk about it though, engage with

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Speaker 4: right the radical. Yeah, well, let's have a little salon

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Speaker 4: about this. And you know that's not a ruling to

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Speaker 4: try to reverse. And there have been different versions of this,

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Speaker 4: and this time it got even more ominous because she suggested,

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Speaker 4: maybe I'll just do this at trial and the jury stage,

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Speaker 4: and guess what, at trial if she pulls this crap

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Speaker 4: at trial, you can't. It's a double jeopardy and you

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Speaker 4: can't retry him. So that's like the perfect prime. I

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Speaker 4: think people sort of sense the tone of it, but

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Speaker 4: it's stronger than people are appreciating. He really drew the

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Speaker 4: line this time. First he came out and said, this

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Speaker 4: whole Presidential Records Act, it is completely ludicrous. I'm not

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Speaker 4: going to play ball with you, judge. I'm not going

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Speaker 4: to do a little jury instruction based on it because

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Speaker 4: it's totally nuts. But guess what, here's the real jury instructions.

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Speaker 4: And now you, judge, have to rule. So you've been

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Speaker 4: sort of dithering around and the if you don't, so

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Speaker 4: you know right now he's there with like nothing to

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Speaker 4: sort of grab ontos. And so the movie made is

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Speaker 4: rule on the Presidential Records Act. If you rule for Trump, great,

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Speaker 4: we take you right up to the eleventh Circuit and

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Speaker 4: we try to refuse. You rule for us. Okay, good,

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Speaker 4: move to another day. But if you keep not ruling

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Speaker 4: the m word comes into play, and it was just

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Speaker 4: subtle at that we are going to Manda, miss you.

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Speaker 4: It's a special writ. It is hard normally to.

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Speaker 1: Bring and explain what it means.

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Speaker 4: It's a sort of all purpose just like mandate.

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Speaker 1: It's getting a judge kicked off in case.

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Speaker 4: Well, there's a separate thing that is recusing. But Mandamus

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Speaker 4: is just going to a quarter fields and saying just

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Speaker 4: correct her course of fields are normally very receptive to it.

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Speaker 4: But he's really set the table perfectly, and they know

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Speaker 4: what's going on to say. If you don't rule, we're

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Speaker 4: going to do a man damis. And they found a

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Speaker 4: couple cases where it had happened, so it it would

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Speaker 4: be a game changer for a couple reasons. One, she

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Speaker 4: could see the riding on the wall and actually rule

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Speaker 4: not too likely, or she could keep farting around. They

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Speaker 4: could bring emotion to man Damus. If the eleventh circuit

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Speaker 4: is receptive, they bounce her and now a lot of

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Speaker 4: time is past. You know, it's not so easy, but

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Speaker 4: there's the actual chance this case is really cut and dried.

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Speaker 3: Molly.

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Speaker 4: It's been the easiest one and a serious one, and

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Speaker 4: there's a chance with a new judge, it could actually

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Speaker 4: get back on track and be heard say in the summer,

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Speaker 4: lead to a conviction and the like. But Smith is

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Speaker 4: this is the filing. It's the most important since the indictment,

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Speaker 4: where Smith is saying, we're not going to take it

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Speaker 4: anymore if you don't act like a real judge and

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Speaker 4: decide things, We're going to use that very fact of

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Speaker 4: not giving us anything to appeal to appeal. Does that

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Speaker 4: make sense?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Wow, yeah, all right, wow, big day satisfied.

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Speaker 3: Yes, Okay.

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Speaker 4: You recently wrote one of you're really both. I mean,

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Speaker 4: you have a way of saying this is not supposed

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Speaker 4: to be a spoosh fest, but you're just really good

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Speaker 4: at making things find interesting but also trenched.

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Speaker 1: Oh thank you.

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Speaker 4: In your recent piece Trump's Losing Touch, you say the

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Speaker 4: road to Democrats having kept the Senate thus far is

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Speaker 4: lined with Trump's bungled attempts to play king maker. Now

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Speaker 4: you know, in the last several years, his whole inter

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Speaker 4: rearm effect, as I have understood it, with Republicans who

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Speaker 4: mainly behind the scenes hate his guts, have been there

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Speaker 4: terrified that he could primary them, and that's his whole

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Speaker 4: secret power. And now you're talking about a run of

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Speaker 4: times where he is trying to do the same and

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Speaker 4: he's losing again and again. Has he lost his magic

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Speaker 4: powers here?

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Speaker 1: So one of the interesting things about Trump is that

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Speaker 1: he's never been amazing at picking candidates, and part of

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Speaker 1: that is because she's open to candidate. Like, one of

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Speaker 1: the things that Trump did was he took over the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party. Right, he bullied people either with the threat

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Speaker 1: of primary or with the threat of their physical safety.

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Speaker 1: I mean, think about Romney had to pay all that

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Speaker 1: money for extra security. And he took over and what

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Speaker 1: happened then he became the de facto leader of the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party. And one of the things like, you could

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Speaker 1: criticize Nancy Pelosi, right, you could say she isn't lefty enough,

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Speaker 1: she's this, she's that. But at the end of the date,

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Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi was very organized, right, so you wouldn't see

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Speaker 1: votes come up that would fail and rules committee. And

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Speaker 1: another thing she's really careful about was she wouldn't make

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Speaker 1: her purple district Dems who had to be up for

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Speaker 1: reelection in a year or even less. She wouldn't make

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Speaker 1: them vote on things she knew could be used against

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Speaker 1: them an election. Now fast forward to this Republican party

434
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 1: where you have blue state Republicans. You have a bunch

435
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 1: right in New York and California, people like Mike Lawler,

436
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 1: I mean, like Michael Goes on MSNBC and says he's

437
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: the sane Republican. But he's had to vote for both impeachments. Right,

438
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 1: he voted to impeach a cabinet official, the first time

439
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 1: in more than one hundred years that's happened. You know,

440
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: there were no high crimes and misdemeanors. They just didn't

441
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 1: like him. And he voted to a peach show Biden,

442
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 1: and again that was a completely vibes based impeachment.

443
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 4: Or he voted to keep the investigation going right, right,

444
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:25,399
Speaker 4: to open the impeachment.

445
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 3: You'll open, That's what I mean.

446
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, outs try to go ahead.

447
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 1: So what you have with trump Ism is there's nobody

448
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 1: driving the ship. Right, He's in charge, but he's not

449
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 1: really driving the ship. So when you have these candidates,

450
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 1: nobody is saying like, this is not a good candidate

451
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 1: for swing voters. This candidate is an extremist candidate. And

452
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 1: I think one of the original sins of trump Ism

453
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 1: one of the things that ultimately I think very likely

454
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,479
Speaker 1: will be his undoing, though I don't want to predict

455
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: the future, is that he went way more right wing

456
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 1: and let the party kind of control him. Right. He

457
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 1: sort of embraced the bassist act aspect of the party,

458
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 1: which is not what you do right. Usually you get

459
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,120
Speaker 1: elected and you try to pivot to the middle so

460
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 1: that you can get the Democrats so you can grow

461
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: the electorate. Right, and so what he never learned the

462
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 1: lesson that you don't want and nominate the most extreme

463
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: person as a candidate because voters don't like it. In

464
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: ruby red states, he was able to win with these

465
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 1: candidates so often they've delivered results that were below what

466
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 1: the polling average would be. Right, but he would get

467
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:32,639
Speaker 1: these people elected. But his swing candidates always always always

468
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 1: failed because they were just too extremely Oh this is

469
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 1: dating back.

470
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 3: I see. This is always from.

471
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: Roy Moore right right in Alabama. I mean, the man

472
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 1: turned an Alabama Senate s blow. He has never been

473
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 1: a good candidate picker. Like the one time he ever

474
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 1: picked anyone who was a winner was Mike Pence, who

475
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 1: helped him win. But otherwise everyone else has just been

476
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 1: a disaster. And you know a lot of times he's

477
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 1: just endorsed people to get his numbers to be better.

478
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 1: He has endorsed like people who were running for reelection.

479
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 1: But ultimately he's a very bad candidate picker. And you know,

480
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 1: why shouldn't he be. You know, he doesn't have any

481
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 1: you know, he's only been in politics since twenty fifteen.

482
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:15,879
Speaker 4: And I mean, he just it seems to he just

483
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 4: picks based on patty, personal things, not not any kind

484
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 4: of political calculation.

485
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 1: If you suck up to him, he likes you. Yeah,

486
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 1: that's very busy calculus. Yeah, okay, your turn. So the

487
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 1: Supreme Court right now is looking at this idea of

488
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 1: presidential immunity, which is, as we all know, completely silly

489
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 1: and not concealed Team six murder your political opponent. Yes,

490
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 1: because crimes are on crimes if you're president. There is

491
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 1: no world in which any of this flies. So why

492
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 1: is it taking so long? Obviously Alito and Thomas are

493
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,439
Speaker 1: all in on this, But what do you think the

494
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 1: timetable is on this? Are they going to try to

495
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 1: keep it going till June? What do you think this happens?

496
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 1: And also, like people like who are trying to pretend

497
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 1: to be real justices like Justice Kavanaugh kekestand I mean

498
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 1: he must be pretty pissed too, and a certain way.

499
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:09,679
Speaker 1: So let's talk it through with me.

500
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 4: Great question.

501
00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:11,360
Speaker 3: You're right.

502
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 4: There is no world in which Donald Trump, at the

503
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 4: end of the day gets a ruling from the Supreme

504
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 4: Court or any court that says he's out of jail

505
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 4: free because his actions are covered by presidential immunity.

506
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 1: Right, it's not how any of this works.

507
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 4: Right, there's no world where s that happens. But of

508
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 4: course Trump always operates on two levels, a delay level,

509
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 4: maybe the most important, and then the merit. He will

510
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 4: not win the merits, but delay is everything, especially for him.

511
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 4: This's a federal case, and I think you all your

512
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,199
Speaker 4: listeners know this, But all that has to happen if

513
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 4: he wins, he just tells the doj oh, that little

514
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 4: prosecution drop it. So the thing about immunity that from

515
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 4: day one has always been so worrisome is it's a

516
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,439
Speaker 4: right not to stand trial in the first place, and

517
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 4: as a result, and a trial court rules against you,

518
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 4: you can make an immediate appeal. Almost everything else. You

519
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 4: have to go to trial, be convicted, go through it,

520
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 4: and then make all your claims. But immunity is special. Okay,

521
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:16,679
Speaker 4: so we've known that, and we already he played his

522
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 4: card on immunity and got a pretty good delay out

523
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 4: of chuck In, but a really excellent opinion by the

524
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 4: DC Circuit it might have been the end of it there.

525
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 4: And yes, so now here comes the US Supreme Court. First,

526
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 4: they took two weeks to decide, so some shit was

527
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 4: going on there, and then we'll we'll eventually find that out.

528
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 4: But the big question is, here's the concrete risk. And

529
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 4: it's not small to me, Molly that they decide they

530
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 4: have to look out for not just the case, but

531
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,639
Speaker 4: the principle that they set down. Let's say they think,

532
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 4: all right, you know Trump, of course, but there could

533
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 4: be a situation a president bomb's Cambodia and you know,

534
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 4: he gets sued criminally. There could be a situation where

535
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 4: we want to hold that the constitution prohibits the a

536
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 4: criminal charges against the president. All they have to do

537
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 4: is annunciate some test like that, and what happens is

538
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 4: it goes back for a remand Judge Shutkin takes an

539
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 4: hour and a half to say it doesn't apply to Trump.

540
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 4: But then Trump gets a shorter, but another trip up

541
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 4: and down.

542
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: Oh wow, could that really happen one percent?

543
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 4: That's a risk that I think is more than fifty percent.

544
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 4: So now let's talk about the court. They can do

545
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 4: things quickly. They just in the Colorado case, the insurrection case,

546
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 4: they made a point of issuing the opinion on the

547
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 4: Monday before Super Tuesday, so people wouldn't know. You might

548
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 4: have thought that they here would do the same thing,

549
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 4: because we really want to have a trial, even if

550
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 4: you're pro Trump. The value to the American people of

551
00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:59,959
Speaker 4: having a trial so people know the results when they

552
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 4: go to the polls. As best I can tell, that

553
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 4: factor matters to the court zero. I think the Court

554
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 4: has decided that's not our lookout. We're gonna take our

555
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 4: regular time. They could have made the argument earlier. Instead,

556
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 4: they put it on the last day of the term

557
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 4: where there was one slot. You gotta imagine there's more

558
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 4: than one opinion. So in other words, the earliest this

559
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 4: comes out is like early June. And then okay, if

560
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 4: it comes out early June and it's just affirming totally

561
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 4: the DC Circuit, now Chuck's back in business.

562
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 3: But if it.

563
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 4: Comes out early June and it states, any test, any

564
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 4: test where sometimes a president can be immune. Now we

565
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 4: have the extra little road trip for Trump of back

566
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 4: down and back up, and man, it looks very remote.

567
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 1: And that waits till September.

568
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 4: I think even without that little extra trip, it's sort

569
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 4: of September. So it might just blow it out of

570
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 4: the water. Let's say it is September by the time,

571
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 4: because remember when it goes back to chuck In, he's

572
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 4: still got to write this Trump to raise some things.

573
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 4: So now it's September. Wow, So this most serious of

574
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 4: all trials, with him having to be in the seat

575
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 4: in the home stretch, he's going to stay to the

576
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 4: Supreme Court. You've got to not let that. But we

577
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 4: should have such problems because that is right now. The

578
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 4: best case scenario and a likely one I'm really afraid of,

579
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 4: is there's another round of a reman and September doesn't

580
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 4: even happen. Okay, we're on time if we go quick.

581
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 4: My turn Florida, which I grew up with always thinking

582
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 4: Florida the crazy place that decides elections. So when this

583
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 4: week the Florida Supreme Court out of the blue, on

584
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 4: the one hand, kind of paves the way for a

585
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 4: six week band, they just say it's the eighteen week

586
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 4: so it could be six weeks. But on the other

587
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 4: green light that initiative, which is a pro choice initiative.

588
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 4: So there's going to be such focus and over the

589
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 4: last two cycles, the issue is always played to the

590
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 4: Democrat's advantage. But Florida is not your you know, your

591
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 4: two thousand Florida which is on a knife SiGe. Florida

592
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 4: is more read than that. So do you see any

593
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 4: state of affairs in which the whole abortion thing actually

594
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 4: puts in play in terms of winning or losing in

595
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 4: the presidential election the great state of Florida.

596
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to add something to your question, which is

597
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: one of the things that this Supreme Court did was

598
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 1: they said that now the six week abortion ban can

599
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: go into action, and that is I think actually a

600
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: really important data point because Florida has always been a

601
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: state with pretty lax abortion laws for the South, and

602
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: the people of Florida have never had the experience of

603
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: being really a place where you can't get an abortion.

604
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: So now you have Florida obgyns, we're going to have

605
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 1: to practice obgyn care, maternal fetal healthcare as if they're

606
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: in the state of Louisiana or Texas. And what that's

607
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 1: mean is going to be a real sea change, because

608
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 1: we've already seen this happen in the states that banned abortion.

609
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 1: It will be in thirty days more dangerous to be

610
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:12,400
Speaker 1: a pregnant woman in Florida than it is in Connecticut

611
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: or New York, or Rhode Island or Vermont, because if

612
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: you're a pregnant woman in Florida, your doctor is always

613
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: thinking I could go to jail for this, I could

614
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 1: lose my license for this, I could be fined one

615
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars for this. Maybe Ron DeSantis, who we

616
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: already know is kind of a loose canon, wants to

617
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:34,719
Speaker 1: make this Miami guynecologist an example. So already you're going

618
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 1: to have doctors practicing defensive medicine. And one of the

619
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: things I would say that I don't think we spend

620
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 1: enough time talking about when we talk about choice in

621
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: reproductive health care, is that pregnant women who are not

622
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 1: necessarily pro choice, people who aren't Republicans, who never wanted

623
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 1: to get an abortion, who never thought you should have

624
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 1: the legal right to get abortions, don't necessarily realize how

625
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: much their pregnancy care Chaine. Now that doctors are worried

626
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: about getting arrested. From May to November, you're going to

627
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 1: see the state of Florida as an abortion desert. So

628
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 1: when those voters come to vote on those ballance initiatives,

629
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,479
Speaker 1: they're going to know really what they're voting for. And

630
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 1: I think that is a really important data point. And

631
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 1: historically we have seen that when people experience losing that right,

632
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 1: they understand why it's so important. So I do think

633
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 1: that'll be a big deal. Will Democrats win Florida, It

634
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. What matters is Republicans are now worried that

635
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 1: Florida might be in played. This changes the map, right.

636
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 4: And the money right, money, money, money, money, money, right.

637
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it's a very expensive media market Florida. And

638
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: you've got Trump running defense in a state he thought

639
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 1: would be a cake walk. And remember Florida is like

640
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 1: the first time ever Florida population is going down now, right,

641
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 1: people are leaving the state because of inflation because they

642
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 1: have such bad inflationary pressures when it comes to insurance

643
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 1: and inflation and the cost of goods and housing. So

644
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 1: I actually think it's going to be a real problem

645
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 1: and we'll a Democrat win Florida. Most pundits would say

646
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: absolutely not. But again, we don't really know, right, we're

647
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 1: basing all of this on polls. Maybe these poles are

648
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 1: all totally correct, but there certainly has been a lot

649
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 1: of cross tab volatility there.

650
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 4: And that's a really good point. And it's not just

651
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 4: of course, the presidency. There's guys like Rick Scott, etc.

652
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 4: All Right, we're down to five minutes and we've each

653
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 4: had two rounds, and Jesse is very strict. I think

654
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 4: we only have one question left.

655
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 1: What case is the case that you think might surprise

656
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 1: us of the Trump cases? Or is there like a

657
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,919
Speaker 1: sleeper case like the case with the California bar. I mean,

658
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 1: do you think there's a case that might sort of

659
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 1: move the needle that we are not even looking out for?

660
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 4: Right, So I'll just say the legal needle and the

661
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 4: political needle. Because we've had different cases where judges have

662
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 4: found he basic lee is guilty as sin but not

663
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 4: in the criminal context. And what you just named the

664
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 4: Eastman and Jeff Clark disciplinary proceedings have that including like

665
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 4: it was a really big thing. We got a preview

666
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 4: of the what's going to be a killer witness in

667
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 4: the January sixth trial, the Ramrod straight hats, Philbin, Pat Sippoloni,

668
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 4: White House Council folks who invoked executive privilege in the

669
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 4: January sixth committee. But they won't at trial, So that

670
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 4: stuff is going to be killer. They'll also, you know,

671
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 4: Hope Picks, I think, is going to be killer in

672
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 4: this upcoming trial. In other words, there are trials that

673
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 4: could be sleepers. But I think the real point is

674
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 4: most of everything we've heard so far has been argument

675
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 4: and people kind of you know, screaming in each other.

676
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 4: But there's going to be these pristine, crystalline moments of

677
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 4: testimony where like, what the hell is he going to

678
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 4: say about that? I mean, these are witnesses from hell.

679
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 4: For I want you to give me ninety seconds to

680
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 4: do a plug.

681
00:35:58,000 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 3: Can I do that?

682
00:35:58,840 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 4: Yes?

683
00:35:59,040 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 1: Sure.

684
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 4: We just start arted a new speaker series out here

685
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 4: called Talking San Diego. Jamie Raskin was here last week,

686
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 4: Jensaki is coming. We got to have really a great

687
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:13,280
Speaker 4: slate of speakers. So if you're anywhere in the area,

688
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 4: just go to Talkingsan Diego dot net and now I'll

689
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 4: give you the info and you can buy a ticket

690
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,840
Speaker 4: for it. There's my self promotion name. Heyay.

691
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 1: Jacob Rubashkin is an analyst and reporter for Inside Elections.

692
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 1: Welcome back to Fast Politics.

693
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 3: Jacob, Thanks for having me explain.

694
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 1: To us what you guys have right now that's new

695
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 1: and exciting.

696
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,760
Speaker 3: So we just publish at the end of last week

697
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 3: our quarterly House Overview. You know, I think Inside Elections

698
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 3: were the only ones who do with the kind of

699
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 3: depth and regularity a look at the full house battlefield.

700
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 3: We wrote about one hundred and ten house races that

701
00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 3: have either interesting general elections, interesting primary is special elections,

702
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 3: something cool is going on there. We took about twelve

703
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,839
Speaker 3: thousand words the full issue to write a little bit

704
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 3: about every single house race worth knowing about taking place

705
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 3: around the country. And so we put out that issue

706
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 3: at the end of last week, and along with that

707
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 3: we included a number of ratings changes. So we assess

708
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 3: the likelihood of each party winning every single seat across

709
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,400
Speaker 3: the nation, and we make adjustments to that as the

710
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 3: cycle progresses. And so of those one hundred and ten

711
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 3: that we wrote, about twelve of them the circumstances have changed,

712
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 3: and so we updated the rating to more accurately reflect

713
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 3: where we think those races sit today.

714
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 1: So one hundred and ten is a lot of races.

715
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 1: Of those one hundred and tens, sort of exciting. That's

716
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,959
Speaker 1: about a third, right, of all the races in Congress, right, well.

717
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 3: A little less than a fourth.

718
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was like four hundred three hundred. I write

719
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: a ton about Congress for someone who's like a general

720
00:37:56,680 --> 00:38:01,799
Speaker 1: opinion columnist, and I still, you know, I'm like, it's

721
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 1: like three seventy five, four hundred, four fifty. But what

722
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 1: I want to ask you is, so only a fourth

723
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:12,720
Speaker 1: are even worth sort of like looking into, right, because

724
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 1: three fourths of them are people who've either been there

725
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: for a million years or are just so there an

726
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 1: R plus twenty seven or something, right.

727
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, And you know I think that even of that

728
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 3: one ten.

729
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 1: Of those one hundred and ten, how many are competitive.

730
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 3: Competitive in a general election? We currently carry seventy two

731
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 3: seats on our House battlefield, so that is seats that

732
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 3: will need.

733
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 1: That's actually higher than I thought.

734
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 3: And it's a little higher. It'll get smaller as we

735
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 3: progress through the cycle. But I think there's a lot

736
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,359
Speaker 3: of uncertainty right now, and so what we try and

737
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 3: do is give ourselves some latitude in both directions. Right,

738
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 3: we're looking at seats that could be competitive in a

739
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 3: good Democratic year, but we're also looking at seats that

740
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 3: could be competitive in a good Republican year. And as

741
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 3: we get to the summer and serve only to the fall,

742
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:03,280
Speaker 3: as the presidential election becomes a little bit more clear,

743
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 3: we will know that a lot of those seats are

744
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 3: no longer on the battlefield. Right if if we're in

745
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 3: October or even if we're in July, right and the

746
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 3: presidential race looks like it's going to be in favor

747
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 3: of one candidate or the other, that's going to shift

748
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,760
Speaker 3: how the presidential battlefield goes. But for now, we've got

749
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,800
Speaker 3: a lot of seats that could go one way or

750
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:24,800
Speaker 3: the other. And then we've got a seat like West

751
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:28,360
Speaker 3: Virginia second District, which is not a competitive general election seat,

752
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 3: but it's an open seat. There's going to be a

753
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 3: Republican primary, and there's going to be a new member

754
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 3: of Congress, and even if that's going to be a

755
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 3: Republican like the outgoing member, it's always important when you

756
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 3: get a new member of Congress, they come in with

757
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 3: their own set of priorities, their own background, and as

758
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 3: we've seen over the last year or six months, the

759
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 3: individual personalities of all of these members can have an

760
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 3: outsized impact on how the House functions.

761
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: See, you're straight reporter, so you can't say what I'm thinking,

762
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: which is you can always get it crazy like Marjorie

763
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 1: Taylor Green, who will hijack the entire party. See, you

764
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: can't say it, but I can just not.

765
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 3: There are differences within each party's conference that can be

766
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 3: just as important as whether you're a D or an R.

767
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 3: I'll put it that way.

768
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 1: Let's get talking about this seventy two competitive seats. What

769
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 1: are the sort of I'd love to know, what are

770
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 1: the sort of ones that you were surprised by or

771
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 1: that you were like, oh wow.

772
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 3: So there are a couple that I think have not

773
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 3: necessarily gone the way I might have expected at the

774
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 3: beginning of the cycle, kind of in both directions. On

775
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 3: the Democratic side, for instance, Nevada right in twenty twenty two,

776
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 3: Nevada was one of the big big prizes of the

777
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,399
Speaker 3: House battlefield. I mean, we saw both Democrats and Republicans

778
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 3: super PACs spend tens of millions of dollars in the

779
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 3: Las Vegas media market. There were three congressional districts that

780
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 3: were looked at as up for grabs, the first, the third,

781
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 3: and the fourth all held by Democrats. Republicans really wanted

782
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 3: to win them, and they spent a ton of money

783
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 3: trying to and they lost all them narrowly, but they

784
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 3: didn't win any of those Nevada seats. And heading into

785
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four, I think there was an expectation this

786
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 3: is a really competitive presidential year, this is going to

787
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,839
Speaker 3: be a top state in the Senate battlefield. These house

788
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 3: races are going to be front and center again. And

789
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 3: in fact, what we've seen is a lot of Republican

790
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 3: pessimism about Nevada. They've been unable to recruit top tier candidates.

791
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 3: They are not really talking about those races and those

792
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 3: Democratic incumbents as top tier pickup opportunities. That's wild, and

793
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 3: so a state that was so central to the battlefield

794
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 3: last time has really become a bit of a backwater,

795
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 3: even as that Senate race is super, super interesting, the

796
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 3: presidential is super interesting, and I.

797
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 1: Always think of Nevada as like a worry for them.

798
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 1: It's like it's in the D column until it's not

799
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 1: I feel like one of the big problems Republicans are

800
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,400
Speaker 1: having right now is money. That they have a cash crunch,

801
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,879
Speaker 1: and because Donald Trump's legal fees are so high, it's

802
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 1: like a cash crunch for them. You can see it

803
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 1: in down ballot races, which that would make the most sense, right.

804
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Republicans have struggled to keep pace with Democrats

805
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 3: on the fundraising side. On the candidate side, I'll be specific,

806
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,799
Speaker 3: because the Republican super PACs generally have more money than

807
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:25,399
Speaker 3: their Democratic counterpart. So like the Congressional Leadership Fund, which

808
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 3: is the main Republican super pac, tends to have more

809
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 3: money to throw around in the House Majority Pack, which

810
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,840
Speaker 3: is the analogous institution on the left. But of course

811
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 3: those dollars they don't go as far because it's you

812
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 3: get a better rate for advertising if you're the candidate

813
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,240
Speaker 3: then if you're an outside super pack. So it's definitely

814
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 3: a factor for Republicans, the money.

815
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,799
Speaker 1: So tell me what else you're seeing that's interesting and

816
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 1: surprising like that.

817
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 3: There were a few races that we moved in republicans favor.

818
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 3: I'll point out two of them here, Michigan's tenth District,

819
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 3: which kind of Assits. It's a suburban district right north

820
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:03,240
Speaker 3: of Detroit. It has an incumbent Republican Congressman named John James.

821
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 3: He won a very narrow election in twenty twenty two

822
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 3: open seat race. Congressman Andy Levin held this seat for

823
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 3: a while, but when Michigan redrew their maps, he chose

824
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 3: to run in a Democratic primary against his colleague Hailey Stevens.

825
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:20,360
Speaker 1: He lost and lost.

826
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 3: Yeah. Now, if he had run in this district, he

827
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 3: would have won.

828
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,399
Speaker 1: Oh no, Hailey's still running.

829
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, she's running for her seat again. But Andy Levin,

830
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 3: there was some thought maybe he would run against John James,

831
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 3: but he obviously is not doing that. This is a

832
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,240
Speaker 3: really marginal district. Trump would have carried it in twenty

833
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 3: twenty by about a percentage point. But if you look

834
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 3: at the results of the twenty twenty two elections in

835
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 3: Michigan in this seat, they were all quite good for Democrats.

836
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 3: Gretchen Whitmer, Jocelyn Benson, and Dana Nessel, who were the

837
00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 3: three women at the top of the ticket for Democrats

838
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 3: in Michigan, all carried this district by double digits, and

839
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,320
Speaker 3: John James won by around two thousand votes.

840
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 1: Isn't John James the guy they keep running for Senate?

841
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, so he he ran for Senate in twenty eighteen

842
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 3: and twenty twenty.

843
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's like the one black Republican.

844
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they actually I believe there are now more

845
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 3: black Republicans in Congress than ever.

846
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 1: Before, right, but it's still like four.

847
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:22,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's four or five. But yes, he

848
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 3: ran for Senate twice nearly one in twenty twenty and

849
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 3: then barely won this congressional seat. The Democrats look like

850
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 3: they're going to nominate a guy named Carl Marlinga, who

851
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 3: is the nominee last time. He is a very old

852
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 3: school attorney in the area. He was a judge in

853
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 3: Macomb County. He was a prosecutor, a defense attorney. He

854
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 3: was the nominee last time. But he is not a

855
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 3: good fundraiser, and he's got some legal baggage from his

856
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 3: time as a judge and a defense attorney because a

857
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 3: lot of defense attorneys take on unsavory clients that Republicans

858
00:44:56,800 --> 00:45:00,360
Speaker 3: were able to weaponize really effectively last time, and the

859
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 3: fact that this should be a top tier pickup opportunity,

860
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 3: they were not able to attract a real top tier

861
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 3: challenger for James, and so in all likelihood Marlingo will

862
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 3: be the nominee. Again, he's not going to have a

863
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 3: lot of money. It's going to be a really expensive

864
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 3: media market in Detroit because of that Senate race and

865
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,759
Speaker 3: the presidential and so this is one that again we

866
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 3: kind of expect it to be a little bit more competitive.

867
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 1: Democrats could flip yeah, but they don't nominate the right

868
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:30,399
Speaker 1: person for it, so they can't. That's Michigan one, Michigan ten.

869
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:34,880
Speaker 1: I have a question about the ladies who control Michigan,

870
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 1: the governor, the ag yeah, and the Secretary of State.

871
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 1: Do they help down ballot candidates in Michigan or is

872
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:44,280
Speaker 1: there no correlation?

873
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 3: In twenty twenty two, they pretty clearly did because when

874
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 3: they were on the ballot in Michigan, all three of

875
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 3: its statewide offices are up in non presidential years, so

876
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:57,800
Speaker 3: none of them will be on the ballot this time.

877
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 3: But clearly in twenty twenty two, the fact that you

878
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 3: had three strong candidates at the top of the ticket

879
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 3: was a big boon for Democrats running down ballot. Remember,

880
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 3: you also had that abortion referendum that passed by a

881
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 3: pretty significant margin. That was helpful. And you had Republicans

882
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 3: in two of those three races. Republicans nominated candidates that

883
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 3: were pretty trumpy, that were pretty baked in with the

884
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:28,400
Speaker 3: conspiracy theories about the twenty twenty election. So for Governor

885
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 3: Tutor Dixon and for Secretary of Straight Christina Caromo, and

886
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 3: so two out of the three state wide candidates couldn't

887
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:37,440
Speaker 3: raise any money and were really unpalatable to a lot

888
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 3: of voters. And so that's why you saw Michigan was

889
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,839
Speaker 3: such a bright spot for Democrats in twenty twenty two.

890
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,040
Speaker 3: In twenty four when they're not on the ballot, I

891
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 3: don't think it helps nearly as much.

892
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 1: But the Republican Party in Michigan has had some real problems. Yes,

893
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:53,839
Speaker 1: you want to talk about that.

894
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 3: The Republican Party in Michigan kind of underwent a schism.

895
00:46:58,160 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 3: I guess it's the best way to think about it.

896
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:03,600
Speaker 3: So Christina Karama, who was that Secretary of State nominated,

897
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 3: she is pretty wild. She has a lot of conspiracy

898
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 3: theories about I think she said like Beyonce was demonic,

899
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 3: Like it's just she's kind of all over the place.

900
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:17,000
Speaker 3: So she was elected the chairwoman of the state party

901
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 3: in Michigan a couple of years ago in a pretty

902
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 3: contentious race and running against actually the guy who was

903
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 3: the nominee for attorney general, who performed the best out

904
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 3: of the three statewide Republican candidates last cycle. So she

905
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 3: beat him. The party was pretty torn up about it,

906
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 3: and I mean, we're talking fistfights on camera at Michigan

907
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:44,359
Speaker 3: GOP retreats. It's been really rocky for the last year

908
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:48,839
Speaker 3: or so in her tenure. And she was ousted a

909
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 3: little while ago, and she claimed that it was illegal

910
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 3: and that she was still the rightful chair. For a

911
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 3: little while, there were two dueling websites, they had two

912
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:01,760
Speaker 3: dueling conventions. But since then things kind of have settled.

913
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 3: A federal judge ruled that she was properly ousted, and

914
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 3: Pete Hawkstra, who is a former congressman, is kind of

915
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 3: viewed by pretty much everyone now as the chairman of

916
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,239
Speaker 3: the Republican state party. They're still broke, they still don't

917
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 3: have any money. But ultimately, whether or not you have

918
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 3: a strong state party is a pretty secondary or tertiary

919
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 3: concern when we're talking about federal races at least, right.

920
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 1: But turnout is still helped by a good stay party. Yeah,

921
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,279
Speaker 1: talk to me about the races that keep people up

922
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 1: at night. Marjorie Taylor Green is going to stick it out.

923
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:40,800
Speaker 1: But Lauren Bobert, right, I mean, there's a little excitement there.

924
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:46,720
Speaker 3: This race has so many twists and turns. Talk about

925
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 3: things that didn't end up how we anticipated heading into

926
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:53,400
Speaker 3: this cycle. Adam Frish, who I believe you've had on

927
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 3: the show.

928
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 1: Before multiple times, Yes, took.

929
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:59,359
Speaker 3: Lauren Bobert to a very very narrow and most narrow

930
00:48:59,400 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 3: congressional victory of the twenty twenty two cycle just a

931
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 3: couple hundred votes. He was back for a rematch. He

932
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,320
Speaker 3: was raising a ton of money. It became very clear

933
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 3: that he was going to be a real threat to

934
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 3: her in the general election. And then she got a

935
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 3: primary challenger as well, who started getting some real backing

936
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 3: from some of the more moderate and establishment Colorado Republicans.

937
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:24,319
Speaker 3: So she decided to switch districts and run in the

938
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 3: fourth district, which is not currently represented by ken Buck,

939
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:30,279
Speaker 3: but up until about two weeks ago was represented by

940
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 3: ken Buck. And this is really the thing that always

941
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 3: really gets me as I remember in twenty ten when

942
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 3: ken Buck was the Tea Party Darling he was nominating

943
00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 3: him in Colorado was a sign that the right wing

944
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 3: of the Republican Party had really come into the four

945
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:50,279
Speaker 3: And when he lost that race to Michael Bennett, it

946
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 3: was held up kind of in the same conversation as

947
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 3: Sharon Engel and Christine O'Donnell, Republicans nominating unelectable candidates is

948
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,719
Speaker 3: costing them the Senate. Fast forward to decade and Ken

949
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 3: Buck is the voice of reason in the Republican Party

950
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 3: and is so fed up with how things have gone

951
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:10,240
Speaker 3: that he's calling it quit. So he is not running

952
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 3: for reelection. He resigned his seat and on very short notice.

953
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:17,600
Speaker 3: And so now you've got an open a vacant seat,

954
00:50:17,680 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 3: You've got an open Republican primary, and you've got a

955
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:24,400
Speaker 3: special election all taking place at the same time. Bobert

956
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 3: is trying to win the Republican primary. She's not running

957
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:30,799
Speaker 3: in the special election. There are a whole bunch of

958
00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:33,719
Speaker 3: local elected officials who are also running in the primary.

959
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 3: It's gotten pretty.

960
00:50:34,840 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 1: Nasty who's running in the special So.

961
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:40,840
Speaker 3: The special and Colorado is weird about this. Colorado doesn't

962
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:44,840
Speaker 3: do primaries for special elections. Yeah, they have a committee.

963
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 3: They call them vacancy committees, which are basically committees of

964
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 3: local elected officials and Republican Party officials or Democratic Party

965
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 3: officials who meet up and choose the nominees at a convention.

966
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 3: So the Republican nominee is a guy named Greg Lopez.

967
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 3: He is a former gubernator candidate. He was a mayor

968
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:06,359
Speaker 3: of a town in the nineties. He was picked as

969
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:08,799
Speaker 3: the nominee for the special. He's not running in the

970
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:09,880
Speaker 3: regular elections.

971
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 1: The reason Lauren Boper didn't run in the special was

972
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 1: because if you run in the special, you can't run

973
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 1: in the general. Right.

974
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 3: Well, no, so you can do both. The reasons she didn't,

975
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 3: I'm of two minds. I think one of the reasons

976
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:22,319
Speaker 3: why she didn't is because she was worried she would lose.

977
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 3: She wouldn't get the nomination and that would be embarrassing.

978
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 3: The other thing is if she ran on the special

979
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:32,280
Speaker 3: and won, she would have to resign her current seat,

980
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,759
Speaker 3: right because you can't hold two seats in Congress at once.

981
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 3: She didn't put her name in contention. Lopez did, but

982
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:40,279
Speaker 3: he said up front that he was only going to

983
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:42,319
Speaker 3: serve till the end of the year if he won,

984
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:47,400
Speaker 3: And so he's the Republican nominee. The Democratic nominee is

985
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 3: a woman named Trish Caborezi, who is a former speech

986
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 3: writer currently works for the National Science Foundation, has a

987
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 3: bit of a background in democratic politics. She's a real underdog.

988
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 3: This is a very Republican seat. So that race will

989
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:03,680
Speaker 3: take place on June twenty fifth, on the same ballot

990
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:07,080
Speaker 3: as the primary featuring Bobert and a number of other

991
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:09,360
Speaker 3: Republicans for the full term.

992
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:12,760
Speaker 1: Oh wow, for the primary. So this is wild stuff.

993
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:16,439
Speaker 1: Please tell me what the most fascinating house race you've seen.

994
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:20,320
Speaker 3: I think the Alaska is super interesting. It's the most

995
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 3: Republican state currently held by a Democrat. Democrat Mary Poltola,

996
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 3: of course, won that big special election in twenty twenty two,

997
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 3: beat Sarah Palin. Alaska has a unique system of doing

998
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:38,800
Speaker 3: congressional and Senate races. It's a top four instant runoff

999
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 3: rank choice voting election. Nowhere else in the country does

1000
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 3: their elections like this. And she faces two Republican challengers,

1001
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 3: Lieutenant governor named Nancy Dlstrom and a tech entrepreneur named

1002
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 3: Nick Begich, who is the one Republican and the very

1003
00:52:54,680 --> 00:52:58,799
Speaker 3: democratic and very prominent Begich family in Alaska, and this

1004
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:02,319
Speaker 3: should be a seat that Republicans are winning. Democrats have

1005
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 3: very little business holding a seat a statewide seat in Alaska.

1006
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:08,880
Speaker 3: But because there are two Republicans in the race and

1007
00:53:08,960 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 3: neither of them are getting out, it's looking more likely

1008
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:13,840
Speaker 3: that they're going to get in each other's way and

1009
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:16,880
Speaker 3: really allow Peltola to do what she's done for the

1010
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 3: last two years, which is be relentlessly positive. She raised

1011
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 3: up million seven this quarter. That goes a long way

1012
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:26,839
Speaker 3: in the Anchorage media market. She has caught a real

1013
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:31,200
Speaker 3: lucky break because Republicans can't unify behind one candidate ahead

1014
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:34,920
Speaker 3: of the general election. So I think Alaska politics is fascinating.

1015
00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 3: That's a seat that Democrats absolutely have to hold if

1016
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:40,600
Speaker 3: they want to maintain the majority or reclaim the majority.

1017
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 3: But you know they're going to have to have some

1018
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:44,800
Speaker 3: things break their way over the next couple months for sure.

1019
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 1: Thanks so much.

1020
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you for having me a moment.

1021
00:53:51,760 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 1: Jesse Cannon by drug Fast.

1022
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 3: You know, it's kind of weird. It's almost like Donald

1023
00:53:57,040 --> 00:53:59,920
Speaker 3: Trump's a vengeful guy. Where are people getting this?

1024
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:04,800
Speaker 1: Trump says he'll jail his opponents members of the House

1025
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:09,560
Speaker 1: January sixth Committee are preparing. Yes, they're ready because if

1026
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, I am sorry, this is insane. Donald Trump

1027
00:54:14,080 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 1: is threatening to jail members of the January sixth Committee.

1028
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 1: Their crime is recognizing his crimes. And in case you're wondering,

1029
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 1: if Trump gets re elected, your crimes will be doing

1030
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 1: anything that draws attention to his crimes. So may I

1031
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:36,319
Speaker 1: suggest that perhaps we should cover this election as the

1032
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:41,440
Speaker 1: insane fiasco it is, and not business as usual. Donald

1033
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 1: Trump making overtures towards jailing his political opponents, and his

1034
00:54:45,600 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 1: political opponents trying to prepare for jail is our moment

1035
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 1: of fuck ray. That's it for this episode of Fast Politics.

1036
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:57,759
Speaker 1: Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to hear the

1037
00:54:57,800 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 1: best minds in politics makes sense of all this chaos.

1038
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 1: If you enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to

1039
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 1: a friend and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks

1040
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 1: for listening.